Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2009
Long term trends in power generation
2
Future strategy must be compatible with Energy Trilemma
Asset
y Decarbonization of portfolio y Electricity market
electricity sector is structure must deliver best
clear mega-trend Climate Affordability value to consumers
concerns of energy
5000
1000
0
Power demand growth is important, but
2016
2012
2014
2026
2010
2018
2022
2024
2020
2028
2030
2008
Europe
y EU power plant investment will run at a level of up to €60bn
per year, to replace existing capacity and to decarbonise the
generation system
*Based on VGB target of 475GW of new capacity needed out to 2020, with average Capex of ~€1300/kW
(Lyon conference September 2009)
Real challenge is to create the incentives that necessary investments are made 5
Need for capital intensive technologies to reduce CO2
500
y EU has set itself binding y ETS provides only partial y Post COP 15 global CO2
CO2 targets for 2020 support due to lack of agreement established
y 50% of EU27 capacity has time horizon beyond 2020 and strong LT carbon
to be replaced until 2030 y A system with a high framework put in place
y Many MS1 such as UK share of Renewables leads y EU moves forth with
have gone further and put to high mark-up needs for progressive targets,
binding targets incl. a other generation capacity installs strong carbon
specific fuel mix into y If Governments do not regime
national law favour the least cost
option somebody has to y MSs1 will put in place
pay separate support regimes
(eg. low carbon obligation,
capacity market etc.)
1. Member state
5%
German development depends heavily on
0% nuclear phase out; Dena study identifies
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 16 GW of needed additional capacity by 2020
UK Nordic Germany y For Nordic energy balance is far more relevant
Source: E.ON data, own modelling results than the capacity balance
*Margin against peak load
E.ON addresses long term and short term developments by formulating scenarios 9
Long term trends in Power Generation
10
Generation within the E.ON Group – Adj. EBIT contribution
10
8
Other
48% Other
€4.8 bn
€4.8 bn
6
in € bn
E.ON Group
Adj. EBIT FY 2008
€9.9 bn Outside Central Europe
4 30%1
€1.5 bn
Generation
52%
€5.1 bn
2
70%1 Central Europe
€3.6 bn
RWE E.ON
(224 TWh) (361 TWh) y 2nd largest producer in EU
(45.2GW) (74.4GW)
y Portfolio is well diversified across technologies
14% 7%
22%
2% 1% 28%
and geographies
24%
y Over 30% is CO2 free
y Growth focus in renewables and nuclear will
61% 40%
further balance portfolio
EDF Enel y CO2 emissions in line with peers and ahead of
(611 TWh) (253 TWh)
(126.7GW) (83.6GW)
direct competitor RWE
*Coal+Gas
8% 4%
20%
25% 31%
13%
72% 27%
13
Selective approach for EU, Non-EU and Renewables
Conventional generation Renewables
exposure
Ø 2007: 0.74
y Markets are slowly becoming physically better
0.80 0.78 0.75 0.76
0.73 + 0.42 connected, large volume of planned
0.62
0.41
0.44
Ø 2002: 0.32
interconnection projects
0.31
0.34
0.24 0.20
y Power price convergence progressing at far
EEX/ EEX/ EEX/ Powernext/Powernext/ APX NL/
more rapid rate
Powernext APX NL APX UK APX NL APX UK APX UK
y Harmonization of trading arrangements and
Major interconnection capacity additions market coupling incentives will drive further
since 2005 in UCTE convergence, especially in Eastern European
markets
L new line/cable – capacity enhancement
L
C C new component – capacity optimization
y Markets still have national regulatory
C
C dimension
L C
L
y E.ON’s portfolio advantage from being a pan-EU
L
C
L
L player diversifies national regulatory risk
-
–
Market convergence on course, E.ON seizes value from pan-EU business approach 15
Future development of E.ON‘s European portfolio –
efficient portfolio construction
Markowitz Bullet Model
Efficient frontier
Tangency portfolio
Risk
E.ON portfolio as a whole delivers >100bp above WACC, not every individual asset 16
Future development of E.ON‘s European portfolio – E.ON
positions itself for the future using detailed scenarios
Unabated Growth Green World
y India and China combat climate constraints y Climate change mitigation takes centre stage
arguing additional burdens for economies y Robust GDP growth
y EU gets increasingly disillusioned with intl. y Quick onset of peak oil and high commodity
efforts and turns to climate change adaptation prices
y Economy rebounds as trust in doing business- y Governments stimulate markets to deliver
as-usual is restored quickly technological innovation
y Global run on fossil fuels ensues y Trust helps implement solutions with high
capital costs
y Recession has hit the world economy at its core y Climate change mitigation viewed as key
y Low levels of investment, preference for low y Moderate economic growth due to
capital costs technologies international conflicts
y Weak growth spawns weak ST climate y Affordable fossil fuel makes agreement on LT
agreement carbon targets more difficult
y Discovery of new gas reserves – world muddles y More conflicts attributed to effects of climate
through, with moderate fossil fuel prices change
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Future development of E.ON‘s European portfolio –
Different winning technologies in different scenarios
Coal CCGT Nuclear Renewables
Unabated Growth ++ o + o
Slow Recovery - ++ o +
Climate Concerns
--/+1 + + +
56.8 9.6
y But quality and efficiency of portfolio
50
7.3 improving as old inefficient assets go out and
new state or the art assets come in
y Fits with Perform To Win focusing on
improvement of existing assets
0
Existing Asset LCPD closures New build Expected
capacity 2008* disposals capacity
Conventional Renewables 2015
1. Asset disposal contains A2A carve out, 4800 MW disposal, Statkraft deal
2. 2.5 GW not yet under construction / not yet defined
3. Assumed that existing plant that reaches techniclal end of life is life extended
GW 60.8 60.8
57.8 58.3 60.1 59.5 59.1
1.0 0.7 54.9
y Capacity declines in 2009 due
5.0
7.2 0.7 to forced asset disposals
5.3
4.2 2.6 y Capacity rebounds between
2009-2011 as new build pipeline
13.8 18.6 comes online
y Portfolio remains stable 2011-15
as effect of LCPD closures
19.7 counteracted by new builds
15.9
y Reduction in CO2 exposure as
renewables grows and old coal
11.1 11.1
is phased out
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
14 0 %
12 0 %
1000
ROCE
y Over lifetime we expect our investments IRR to beat
10 0 %
800
Capital employed WACC by at least 100bp
80%
600 EBIT
60%
400
40%
200
20%
0%
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1. Capacity commissioned between 2009-2015
2. Adj. EBIT approximation highly dependend on CO2 regime
4
Sub Processes
High Impact
Analyze market
40% regions/Plan overall
Deliver project
Effective commissioning
site/ Define trading
opportunities Control and review
0% regions location, define project requirements
Procurement bus. context and bus. context and
Sub processes
• 30% Plan overall authorization • 40% Deliver for site plant 6 plant
portfolio
• 40% Screen,
prioritize proposed
projects
strategy
• 40% Assess
technical
requirements
• 40% Plan project,
project
• 10% Support
commissioning
• 20% Cross-
project
• 30% Define
trading
opportunities
• 40%
Improvement
• 20% Commercial
operation
• 30%
Improvement
and excellence
• 20% Develop
strategy and plan
• 10% Execute
maintenance
• 10% Control and
5 Best in class commissioning of plant
procurement, management and • 0% Procurement review
Value impact
financials and eco
over a plant’s lifetime differs
optimization
per process • 20% Improvement
system and excellence
• 10% Procurement
Value Impact of Processes (Potential NPV Deviation in % of Average NPV)
70%
41% 43%
Excellent processes in place
29%
25%
6
Right processes and organisation delivery setup
NPV Opportunity 14%
-33%
-42% -40%
-94%
-60%
24
2 Optimal power plant sourcing strategy
120
0
Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Date of procurement
(qualitative scale)
y Beginning increase of y Dramatic escalation. Prices y Consolidation of prices due
Power Plant fossil power plant prices do not reflect economic to decrease in commodity
Market outlook prices and demand
Old coal „off the shelf“ Hard Coal E.ON 1100MW plants
(495MW) (800MW)
Efficency 35-40% 45% 47%
Ramp rate +/- 9-10MW/min +/- 24MW/min +/- 26MW/min
Investing in highly efficient plant whilst maintaining flexibility to capture the highest prices 26
4 Superior site selection and site access
1. Based on CCGT
E.ON Land Bank means we have access to the best sites and we employ
the best site selection techniques 27
5 Effective commissioning
0
Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Los Barrios, Spain Puente Nuevo, Spain
One organization for fossil plant construction Efficient use of scarce resources
Ad-hoc/Case by case support by E.ON top mgmt Support of administrative processes ensuring timeline
E.ON has developed the right tools and setup to add value 29
7 New industrial logic to fleet management
MU UK
One Steam Fleet
Management Center
MU CE
MU Spain
MU Italy
Average fleet
performance* benchmarking opportunities
y Involvement of Endesa plants confirmed pan-
EU approach, by bringing new best practice
into the Group
y Every power plant has a continuous
Low improvement plan
High Specific O&M costs Low
y External benchmarking confirmed:
1 E.ON has the best performing plant
2 E.ON’s low cost plants are inline with the best
performing average
85%
EDF
80%
Vattenfall
y Competitors only operate national fleets
75%
y Strive to increase performance further
70%
British Energy
65% y Nuclear competencies mean E.ON is well
7GW
60% placed to deliver and efficiently operate new
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 65 66 build plants
Capacity, GW
2011 target availability 98% 2011 target O&M cost reduction 10%
1: Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
2: Wind Turbine Generator
3: Condition Monitoring System
Project level
Value drivers
Strategy Power
Project Power plant
robust portfolio Site selection marketing
execution operation
approach (EET)
34
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made
by E.ON Group management and other information currently available to E.ON. Various known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results,
financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. E.ON AG does
not intend, and does not assume any liability whatsoever, to update these forward-looking statements or to
conform them to future events or developments.
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