Chapter 7 (Final)

National Highways Authority of India
Preparation of Feasibility Study and DPR of Kerala Border to Thrissur

Section of NH-47 (Km 182.00 to Km 270.00) Draft Feasibility Report
7.0 TRAFFIC SURVEYS, ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS
7.1 Introduction
In planning and design of a highway an appreciation of the traffic expected to use

the highway is of importance to assess the capacity requirements, pavement
design, identify present and likely future traffic problems and to device suitable
remedial measures and evolve appropriate designs. It is important for toll roads to
assess the revenue from toll collections on the Project. As part of this study, a
systematic methodology has been followed to assess the characteristics of the
traffic on the project road.
Kerala Border to Thrissur of NH-47 is an important link providing the most direct
route from Tamilnadu, Karnataka , Andhra Pradesh and other parts of India to
Kerala. In view of this, it is considered part of North-South corridor by NHAI for
capacity augmentation to 4-lanes.
The data for the study has been collected from field surveys as well as from
secondary sources. Vehicle and traffic growth rates have been correlated to the
demographic and economic growth trends of the state to establish future growth
rates. The link-wise travel demand has been projected as per the growth rate
estimates and a traffic diversion procedure has been used to derive traffic on
different links of the road network.
The details on traffic surveys and results from its analysis are presented in this
chapter followed by the derivation of traffic growth rates and traffic diversion
analysis to estimate travel demand on the project road.
7.1.1 Objectives
The primary objectives of this traffic study are to:
• assess the characteristics of traffic movement on the project road

• collect historical data on traffic growth in the project road
• estimate the future growth rate .
• determine the travel pattern as well as type and weight of
commodities carried by goods vehicles.
• determine the turning movements of traffic at road intersections
• identify traffic bottlenecks and the need for service roads bypasses
to congested locations
• determine the spectrum of axle loads and the vehicle damage
factor of different types of commercial vehicles.
SOWiL Limited. 7-1

7.1.2 Surveys
To fulfill these objectives, the following traffic surveys were carried out
• Traffic volume count surveys at 4 locations for 7 days

• Origin and destination surveys for 24 hours at two locations
• Turning movement surveys for 12 hours at 10
Junctions/Intersections.
• Journey time and delay studies over the entire project road
• Pedestrian movement surveys at 3 locations
• Traffic Accident Data Collection
• Axle load surveys at 2 locations for 48 hours
The Locations of the surveys conducted shown in Figure 7.1.
7.2 Classified Traffic Volume Counts
7.2.1 Objectives
The intensity of traffic flow at any given section of the road forms the
basis for determining its spatial and structural design requirements. The
collection of traffic data thus assumes utmost significance in the
development of any road project. In order to assess the Average Daily
Traffic at any section of road, classified traffic counts are carried out for a
continuous period of 7 days to average any variation in the short term.
7.2.2 Methodology
The project road was divided into four homogeneous sections based on
preliminary reconnaissance studies in such a way that the traffic intensity
within a particular section will be more or less uniform. Classified traffic
counts were organised at one selected location in each section. The
locations of 7-day continuous traffic count stations are Table 7.1. Data on
the number of vehicles of different categories moving along the road in
both directions are noted by enumerators specially trained for this
purpose. The vehicles are broadly classified into motorised and non-
motorised vehicles, which are further sub divided into specific categories
of vehicles. The traffic counts are generally conducted in accordance with
IRC SP19-2001. However, the groupings of vehicles are further split to
reflect the present day traffic pattern on the project road.
SOWiL Limited. 7-2

Table 7.1 Classified Traffic Count Locations
Count
Homogeneous Section Location Survey dates
No.
HS-1 Kerala/TN Border 24th July –

Km
to Palakkad (Km 182/0 SC/1 30th July
191/000
to Km 204) 2004
HS-2 Palakkad (Km 15th July –

Km
204) to Alathur (Km SC/2 21st July
210/600
226) 2004
HS-3 Alathur (Km 226) 21st July –

Km
to Vadakancherry (Km SC/3 27th July
237/000
239) 2004
HS-4 Vadakancherry 13th July –

Km
(Km 239) to Thrissur SC/4 19th July
263/100
(Km 270) 2004
7.2.3 Results and Analysis
The summary of ADT, in terms of vehicles and PCU at all the four count
locations is given in Table 7.2. The details pertaining to hourly and day
wise distribution of average daily traffic at the seven count locations are
given in Annexure VII.
It may be noted that there was a general strike of state private bus
operators over entire kerala state from 26th to 30th July 2004, there was a
fall in Mini Bus and Bus traffic during these days. It is therefore
considered to justified to take the 5 days average from 21st to 25th for Mini
bus and Bus traffic at Km 237/000, and 2 days average from 24th to 25th at
km 191/000.
From Table 7.2 and Annexure VII, the following can be observed.
 The Average Daily traffic on the project road ranges between

10315 vehicles in Section 1 to 14486 vehicles in section 4. The traffic intensity in terms of
Passenger Car Units ranges between 17204 PCU’s in section 1 to 25365 PCU’s in section 4.
 The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) is close to 17200 PCU’s in

Section 1, 18726 PCU’s in section 2, 19604 in section 3, and about 25365 PCU’s in Section 4.
The traffic increases from Palakkad Town and Vadakanchery due to traffic joining from
Southern Parts of Tamlnadu.
SOWiL Limited. 7-3

 The traffic indicates that significant traffic generators along the

project road and the traffic, is predominantly high in the section 2, 3 and 4.
 There are about 3800 trucks observed in Section 3 and 4 compared

to about 2900 in Section 1 and 2, about 900 higher. Light Goods vehicle range from 564 to 924.
 The passenger car traffic ranges from 3085 in Section 2 to 4216

observed in Section 4. The bus traffic is also maximum in Section 4 at 1477, followed by 1088
in Section 2
 Two-wheeler traffic ranges from 2226 in Section 4 to 2057 in

Section 1.
 The slow moving traffic is slightly high on Section 1, otherwise it

ranges from 29-142 vehicles. Out of the total slow moving traffic, cycle traffic is significant
which is about 96% of the total slow moving traffic.
The Day wise variation of traffic mode wise at Km 191/000 is indicated in

Figure 7.2. The Day wise Variation of Traffic in PCUs is indicated in
Figure 7.3. Details of mode wise hourly distribution of different
categories of vehicles at Km 191/000 are indicated in Figure 7.4. The
Hourly Variation of Traffic is indicated Figures 7.5. Composition of
traffic at Km 191/000 is indicated in Figure 7.6.Weekly variation of
traffic in terms of Total vehicles & total PCU is given in Figure 7.7.
Similarly for other locations i.e at Km 210/600, Km 237/000 & Km

263/100 all the above details are given in Figure 7.8 to 7.13, Figures
7.14 to 7.19 & Figure 7.20 to 7.25 respectively.
SOWiL Limited. 7-4

7 Day CVC Locations
Turning Movement Survey Locations
O-D Survey/Axle Load Survey Locations
Pedestrian Count Locations
Figure 7.1 Traffic Survey Locations
SOWiL Limited. 7-5

Table 7.2
SOWiL Limited. 7-6

Figures 7.2 to 7.4
SOWiL Limited. 7-7

Figures 7.5 to 7.7
SOWiL Limited. 7-8

Figures 7.8 to 7.10
SOWiL Limited. 7-9

Figures 7.11 to 7.13
SOWiL Limited. 7-10

SOWiL Limited. 7-11

SOWiL Limited. 7-12

SOWiL Limited. 7-13

SOWiL Limited. 7-14

The traffic intensity at different count locations is presented in Figure 7.26.
Fig 7.26 Intensity of Traffic (No. of Vehicles) in different sections of

project road
TRAFFIC VOLUME(NUMBERS) 16000
14000
12000
Non-Motorised vehicles
10000 Agr Tr actor/ T railor

Trucks
8000 LCV
MiniBus/ Bus
6000
Car / Three Wheelers
Two Wheelers
4000
2000
Km 191/000 Km 210/600 Km 237/000 Km 263/100

SURVEY LOCATION
7.2.4 Hourly Variation and Peak hour factor
Analysis has been carried out to understand hourly variation and peak
hour traffic characteristics. The hourly distribution of traffic at various
count locations is illustrated in Annexure VII.
The highest and lowest hourly volumes of traffic in different sections of

the project road are indicated below in Table 7.3.
Table 7.3: Highest and Lowest traffic volume in different sections.
Highest hourly traffic volume Lowest hourly traffic volume

Motorised Non- Passenger Motorised Non- Passenger
Vehicles motorised Car Units Vehicles motorised Car Units
Project
section
Vehicles Vehicles
1 634 36 939 214 0 495
2 639 14 997 284 0 597
3 628 9 1068 236 0 610
4 915 15 1502 243 0 609
The hourly distributions of motorised and non-motorised vehicles as well

as passenger car units at different count stations are summarized in
Figures 7.27, 7.28 and 7.29.
SOWiL Limited. 7-15

Fig 7.27 Hourly Variation of Motorised Traffic at Different Count Stations
1000
900
800
Motorised Vehicles(Numbers)
700 SC 1
600 SC 2
500
SC 3
400
SC 4
300
200
100
0
10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Tim e
Fig 7.28 Hourly Variation of Non Motorised Traffic at Different Count Stations
40
35
Non-Motorised Vehicles(Numbers)
30
25
SC 1
20
SC 2
15
SC 3
10
SC 4
0
10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Tim e
SOWiL Limited. 7-16

Fig 7.29 Hourly Variation of Total Traffic at Different Count Stations
1600
1400
1200
Total Traffic (PCU's)
1000
SC 1
800
SC 2
600
SC 3
400
SC 4
200
0
10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Tim e
The Peak Hour Factor (PHF) (defined as the ratio between the number of
vehicles counted during the peak hour to the total vehicles counted in a
day) calculated at various count locations is presented in Table 7.4.
Table 7.4 Peak Hour Factors Observed at Various Count

Locations
S. Peak Hour PHF Peak Hour

Survey Location Road
No. Volume (PCU) (in %) (Hrs.)
1 Km 191/000 SC/1 939 5.46 17:00-18:00
2 Km 210/600 SC/2 997 5.33 17:00-18:00
3 Km 237/000 SC/3 1068 5.45 18:00-19:00
4 Km 263/100 SC/4 1502 5.92 18:00-19:00
From the table and illustrations in the Annexure, it can be observed that
the peak hour traffic volume at different count stations range between
5.33% in section 2 to 5.92% in section 4, the mean peak hour factor being
5.54 % at different survey locations.
7.2.5 Average Annual Daily Traffic
SOWiL Limited. 7-17

Monthly Toll Collection Revenues (which is the reliable source to assess

the monthly variation during the season) at Peruvamoozhy
Bridge(Kottayam Nedumbassry Road M.D.R) was collected for the last
one year; this data was used for calculation of seasonal factors. The
AADT was arrived at by multiplying these factors with ADT obtained
from the traffic volume count. The variation of calculated seasonal factors
is given below.
Seasonal Variation Factors at Peruvamoozhy Bridge
Month Seasonal Factors

Jan 1.14
Feb 1.07
Mar 0.98
Apr 0.94
May 0.92
Jun 1.03
July 1.07
Aug 1.19
Sep 1.20
Oct 1.28
Nov 1.23
Dec 0.54
As the classified traffic volume counts was conducted in the month of

July, therefore for calculation of AADT, value of seasonal factor has been
taken as 1.07.
AADT at different count stations (After applying seasonal factors) is

given in Table 7.5.
SOWiL Limited. 7-18

Insert Table 7.5
SOWiL Limited. 7-19

7.3 Origin Destination Survey
7.3.1 Objective
The objective of the Origin-Destination (O-D) survey is to gather

information regarding travel characteristics of different users on the
project road. Results of the O -D surveys are used to describe the user
characteristics, both of passengers and goods vehicles, such as distribution
of local and through traffic as well as commodity type and weight of
goods carried by trucks. This information is also useful in determining the
need for bypasses for heavily built up urban sections along the project
road.
7.3.2 Methodology
The Origin-Destination survey as well as Commodity movement survey

was carried out adopting Roadside Interview method as detailed in IRC
102-1988. The survey was carried out for passenger and commercial
vehicles for 24 hours at two locations. It was considered that two O-D
survey locations one each in Section 1 and Section 4, i.e., would
predominantly cover O-D movements on the Project Road that are of
interest to the project. Details of origin-destination surveys conducted as
part of this study are presented in Table 7.6.
Table 7.6 Origin-destination Survey Details
Homogeneous Section Count No. Location

HS-1 Kerala/TN Border SC/1 Km 191/000
to Palakkad (Km 182/2
to Km 204)
HS-4 Vadakancherry SC/4 Km 263/100
(Km 239) to Thrissur
(Km 270)
Roadside Interview method, as detailed in IRC: 102-1988, was used for

O-D survey. The survey was carried out for both passenger and goods
vehicles for 24 hours (in both directions) on a working day. Trained
enumerators under the supervision of Transport Planners collected the trip
characteristics.
The O-D survey elicited passenger mode characteristics like origin and
destination, occupancy, trip purpose and length of trip by mode type. For
goods modes, the survey elicited characteristics like origin and
destination, commodity type and length of trip.
SOWiL Limited. 7-20

7.3.3 Zoning
The entire country was divided into 38 zones in such a way that the
characteristics of interzonal and intrazonal trips could be clearly analysed
and their influence assessed on the project road. The details of zones are
given in Annexure VIII.
With respect to goods vehicles, the types of goods carried were broadly
grouped into 8 categories, plus empty trucks.
The commodity groupings are as follows:-
1. Food Grains/Agriculture Products

2. Perishable Goods
3. Petroleum/Chemical products
4. Building Materials
5. Engineering Goods
6. Garments
7. Parcel Lorries
8. Others
9. Empty
Sample Size
The sample size for each category of goods vehicles at both locations are
summarised in Table 7.7. As can be seen in the table, the sample size for
various types of goods vehicles ranges between 15% and 35%.
Table 7.7 Sample Size for Various Types of Goods Vehicles
S. No. Vehicle Type OD Station (Km 191/000) OD Station (Km 263/100)

Number of Number of
Sample Size Sample Size
Vehicles Vehicles
(in %) (in %)
Interviewed Interviewed
1 LCV 86 15.19 160 17.32
2 2-Axle Truck 21.60
434 581 18.23
3 3-Axle Truck 21.48
125 144 18.07
Multi-Axle
4 36.74
Vehicle 79 34 21.12
Total 724 21.47 919 18.13
The sample size for each category of passenger vehicles is summarised in

Table 7.8. As can be seen in the table, the sample size for passenger
vehicles ranges between 15% and 20%.
SOWiL Limited. 7-21

Table 7.8 Sample Size for Various Types of Passenger Vehicles
S. No. Vehicle Type OD Station (Km 191/000) OD Station (Km 263/100)

Number of Number of
Sample Size Sample Size
Vehicles Vehicles
(in %) (in %)
Interviewed Interviewed
Passenger Car and
1 496 15.32 830 19.95
Jeeps
7.3.4 OD matrices
The OD matrix for goods and passenger vehicles observed at Km 191/000

and Km 263/100 OD Station’s are given in Annexure VIII.
Trip Distribution
The OD matrices derived from the OD data collected at both locations are
combined into one matrix to obtain OD matrix for the project. The
combined OD matrix is analysed to assess the travel pattern of both goods
and passenger vehicles. The analysis of the travel pattern reveals the
following:
Palakkad, Coimbattore, other parts of Tamilnadu, Karnataka, Andhra

Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Delhi, contribute most of the
goods trips originating/terminating from/to the east of Project Road.
Similarly, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Quilon, Trivendrum
Kozhikode and Western Karnataka (Mangalore) contribute most of the
traffic originating or terminating from/to the West of Project Road.
Palakkad, Coimbattore, Pollaci other parts of Tamilnadu, Karnataka,

Thrissur, Ernakulam, Gurivayur, Alathoor, and Vadakanchery are major
generators of passenger traffic.
Of the total goods traffic observed on the project road, 12% generates
(including both originating or terminating traffic) at Coimbattore city, 8%
generates in Palakkad, 12% in Thrissur, 19% at Ernakulam, 4% in
Kottayam and Quilon districts, 17% at other parts of Tamilnadu, 4% in
Karnataka 3% in Andhra Pradesh, 2.5 % in other parts of Country and
18.5% other Parts of Kerala State.
Of the total Passenger traffic observed on the project road, about 19%
generates (including both originating or terminating traffic) at
Coimbattore City, 16% generates in Palakkad, 17% in Thrissur, 10% at
rnakulam, 2.5% in Kottayam and Quilon districts, 5% at other parts of
Tamilnadu, 0.5% in other parts of Country, 30% in other parts of Kerala.
SOWiL Limited. 7-22

The summary of the contribution of the major generating regions of both

goods and passenger traffic estimated based on the travel pattern
estimated under the combined OD matrix is given in Table 7.9.
Table 7.9 Percentage Contribution of Trips by Various Regions
Goods Trips
Region-wise Contribution of Trips (in %)
Andhra
Vehicle Type Kerala Tamilnadu Karnataka Pradesh Others
LCV 74.86 22.06 2.43 0.67 0.00
2-Axle Truck 61.94 29.50 4.52 1.28 2.77
3-Axle Truck 50.99 32.09 2.87 12.09 2.27
Multi-Axle Truck 51.86 25.76 12.92 3.43 6.03

Total 61.98 28.43 4.26 3.00 2.34
Passenger Trips
Region-wise Contribution of Trips (in %)
Andhra
Vehicle Type Kerala Tamilnadu Karnataka Pradesh Others
Passenger Cars and Jeeps 73.71 25.81 0.61 0.14 0.00
From the above table it can be seen that the observed goods traffic is
generally a mix of short and long distance traffic whereas most of the
passenger traffic generates within the Kerala and Tamilnadu States.
7.3.5 Lead Distribution of Goods Vehicles
Figure 7.30 presents the lead distribution for goods vehicles at both the
locations combined. As can be observed, around 12 % of vehicles have a
lead of less than 50 km, 11% have a lead between 51-100 km, 21%
vehicles have a lead between 101-200 km, 20% have a lead in the range
of 201-400 km, 23% have a lead in the range of 401-800 km, 8.5% have a
lead in the range of 801-1600 km, 4% have a lead in the range of 1601-
3200 km and 0.5% vehicles have lead of more than 3200 km. The goods
traffic therefore is a mix of short and long distance traffic with a higher
percentage of long distance traffic.
SOWiL Limited. 7-23

Fig 7.30 Lead Distribution of Goods Vehicles

25.00
20.00
% of Vehicles
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
<=50 51 to 101 to 201 to 401 to 801 to 1601 to >3200
100 200 400 800 1600 3200
Lead in Km
Characteristics of good vehicles are given in Table 7.10.
7.3.6 Lead Distribution of Passenger Cars
Figure 7.31 presents the lead distribution for passenger Cars at both the
locations combined. As can be observed, around 30 % of vehicles have a
lead of less than 50 km, 28% have a lead between 51-100 km, 21%
vehicles have a lead between 101-200 km, 12% have a lead in the range
of 201-400 km, 4% have a lead in the range of 401-800 km, 2% have a
lead in the range of 801-1600 km, 2% have a lead in the range of 1601-
3200 km and 1% vehicles have lead of more than 3200 km. The goods
traffic therefore is a mix of short and long distance traffic with a higher
percentage of short distance traffic
Fig 7.31 Lead Distribution of Passenger Vehicles
35.000
30.000
25.000
% of Vehicles
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0.000
>50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300-500 >500
Lead in Km
Characteristics of Passenger Cars are given in Table 7.11.
SOWiL Limited. 7-24

Table 7.10
SOWiL Limited. 7-25

Table 7.11
SOWiL Limited. 7-26

7.4 Willingness To Pay (WTP) Surveys
7.4.1 For Car User
WTP Survey for Truck Operators has been conducted at 2 locations along
with the O-D Survey. Response of car user for various toll levels has
been recorded. The survey has been conducted on random sample basis,
for duration of 24 hours on normal days. The findings of the survey are
reported in Table 7.12
Table 7.12 WTP for Car Users
Acceptence
WTP
(%)
0.60 Rs/Km 6.2
0.45 Rs/Km 15.1
0.30 Rs/Km 31.4
0.15 Rs/Km 39.4
0.0 Rs/Km 7.9
Total 100.0
7.4.2 For Truck operators
WTP Survey for Truck Operators has been conducted at 2 locations along
with the O-D Survey. Response of Truck Operators for various toll levels
has been recorded. The survey has been conducted on random sample
basis, for duration of 24 hours on normal days. The findings of the survey
are reported in Table 7.13
Table 7.13 WTP for Truck operators
Acceptence
WTP (%)
2.0 Rs/Km 1.80
1.5 Rs/Km 9.40
1.0 Rs/Km 51.70
0.5 Rs/Km 31.40
0.0 Rs/Km 5.70
Total 100.00
SOWiL Limited. 7-27

7.5 Pedestrian Survey
7.5.1 Objective
Pedestrian surveys are intended to collect data on the intensity of

pedestrian movement at specific locations of significant pedestrian
activity with a view to identifying and providing the type and extent of
pedestrian facilities needed at these locations.
7.5.2 Methodology
Three locations of high pedestrian activity were chosen for the study. All
these locations are within the village and Towns. These are
i) Km 203.600 – Koothupatta
ii) Km 203.900 – Chandra Nagar Bus Stand
iii) Km 204.600 – Manoothy
The details of pedestrians crossing the Project road at the mid block
sections Survey was conducted between 8.00 am to 8:00 pm. The data has
been tabulated and analysed in order to decide the highest intensity of
pedestrian movement at these locations.
The details of pedestrian crossings at different study locations are

indicated in Table 7.14 and conflict levels at different study locations are
indicated in Table 7.15.
Table 7.14 Peak hour pedestrian movements across the Project road
Location Morning Pedestrian Evening Pedestrian

Peak Hour Crossings Peak Hour Crossings
Koothupatta Km 202.6 8:00-9:00 192 18:00-19:00 206
Chandra Nagar Bus 10:00-11:00 99 18:00-19:00 106
Stand Km 203.0
Mannoothy Bus Stand 8:00-9:00 655 18:00-19:00 913
Km 266.3
Table 7.15 Cross Pedestrian Traffic and Conflict Level
Chandra Nagar Mannoothy

Koothupatta
Indicator Bus Stand Km Bus Stand
Km 203
204.5 Km 266.3
Peak Hour
Pedestrian Traffic 206 106 913
(P)
SOWiL Limited. 7-28

Fast Veh. During

Pedestrian Peak 1739 2562 1757
(V)
Present Conflict
3.11 3.48 14.09
Level (PV2/2x10^8)
7.5.3 Analysis of study data
The intensity of pedestrian activity is very high and is sufficient enough to

warrant provision of a pedestrian underpass. Also the pedestrian crossings
are spread within the Built up areas. Depending on location of local
crossings, pedestrian sub way may be provided at suitable location to
avoid indiscriminate crossings and providing safety.
7.6 Intersection Turning Movement Survey
7.6.1 Objective
The objective of the turning movement survey is to determine the

directional movement of traffic in order to assess the measures required to
improve the junction capacity and to regulate safe traffic movement.
7.6.2 Methodology
A total of 8 intersections were selected for conducting turning movement

studies. Studies were carried out at the following intersections:
1. Km 202/800 - 3 arm - Pollachi Road meeting with NH 47

2. Km 203/800 - 3 arm - Palakkad Bypass Starting Point
3. Km 216/400 - 4 arm - Thiruvallamali Chitoor Road Crosses
with NH-47
4. Km 228/000 - 4 arm - Alathoor Bypass Starting Point.
5 Km 230/300 4 arm - Alathur Mudiyagaon Road Crosses
with NH-47
6. Km 231/775 - 3 arm - Alathoor Bypass Ending Point
7 Km 239/000 3 arm - Vadakanchery Bypass Starting
Junction
8. Km 240/200 - 4 arm - Vadakanchery Padoor Road Crosses
with NH-47
9. Km 240/900 - 3 arm - Vadakanchery Bypass Ending Point
10 Km 268/200 - 3 arm - Thrissur Bypass Starting Point
.
SOWiL Limited. 7-29

The directional traffic counts were carried out for 12 hours between 8 am
and 8 pm at 15 minutes intervals.
7.6.3 Analysis of Turning Movement study
The peak hour flow diagrams are given in Annexure IX. As per IRC:93-
1985 (“Guidelines on Design and Installation of Road Traffic Signals”)
the traffic at intersections will require time separation, i.e., signal control,
when the major road flow is more than 800 vehicles per hour (both
directions) and the minor road flow is more than 250 vehicles per hour
(one direction) for each of any 8 hours of an average day.
Similarly, as per IRC:92-1985, traffic will require space separation, i.e.,

grade separation, when the total peak hour flow at the intersection is more
than 10,000 pcu/hr. Junctions that do not warrant the above two types of
control will require priority control.
i. Km 202/800 – To Pollachi
It is a three-arm junction, with two arms being NH 47 and the
third one Road leading to Pollachi. The peak hour traffic at this
junction is 1724 veh/hr on major road (all directions) and 304
veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this junction during peak
hour is 2489 pcu/hr. The traffic on major arm and minor arm
satisfies the IRC specifications for signalisation, assuming an
average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the junction will require grade
separation by the year 2022.
ii. Km 203/800 – To Palakkad Town

third one Road leading to Palakkad Town. The peak hour traffic at
this junction is 2240 veh/hr on major road (all directions) and
1190 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this junction during
peak hour is 3430 pcu/hr. The traffic on major arm and minor arm
satisfies the IRC specifications for signalisation, assuming an
average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the junction will require grade
iii. Km 216/400 – To Thiruvallamalai/Chittoor

This is a four-arm right-angled intersection. Roads leading to
Thiruvallamalai and Chittoor branch off at this location. The peak
hour traffic at this junction is 730 veh/hr on major road (NH 47)
(all directions) and 502 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this
junction during peak hour is 1600 pcu/hr. The traffic on major and
minor arms warrants signal control at this junction as per IRC
specifications, assuming an average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the
junction will require grade separation by the year 2026.
SOWiL Limited. 7-30

iv. Km 228/000 – To Alathoor Town/Chittoor

Alathoor Town and Chittoor branch off at this location. The peak
hour traffic at this junction is 864 veh/hr on major road (NH 47)
(all directions) and 265 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this
junction during peak hour is 1129 pcu/hr. The traffic on major and
minor arms warrants signal control at this junction as per IRC
v. 230/300 - To Alathur Town/Mudiyagaon

Alathoor Town and Mudiyagaon branch off at this location. The
peak hour traffic at this junction is 779 veh/hr on major road (NH
47) (all directions) and 312 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at
this junction during peak hour is 1498 pcu/hr. The traffic on major
and minor arms warrants signal control at this junction as per IRC
junction will require grade separation by the year 2028
vi Km 231/775 – To Alathoor Town

third one Road leading to Alathoor Town. The peak hour traffic at
this junction is 667 veh/hr on major road (all directions) and 126
hour is 1148 pcu/hr. The traffic on major arm and the traffic on
minor arm does not qualify for signalisation and therefore, this
junction does not presently warrant signalisation. Assuming an
average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the junction will require signal
control by 2009.
vii Km 239/000 -To Vadakanchery town/Pollachi

third one Road leading to Vadakanchery Town/Pollachi. The peak
hour traffic at this junction is 794 veh/hr on major road (all
directions) and 156 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this
junction during peak hour is 1410 pcu/hr. The traffic on major
arm and the traffic on minor arm does not qualify for signalisation
and therefore, this junction does not presently warrant
signalisation. Assuming an average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the
junction will require signal control by 2009.
viii Km 240/200 – To Vadakanchery Town/Padoor

Vadakanchery Town and Chittoor branch off at this location. The
peak hour traffic at this junction is 739 veh/hr on major road (NH
47) (all directions) and 519 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at
SOWiL Limited. 7-31

this junction during peak hour is 1693 pcu/hr. The traffic on major
and minor arms warrants signal control at this junction as per IRC
ix Km 240/900 – To Vadakanchery Town

third one Road leading to Vadakanchery Town. The peak hour
traffic at this junction is 922 veh/hr on major road (all directions)
and 368 veh/hr on minor road. The total pcu at this junction during
peak hour is 1824 pcu/hr. The traffic on major and minor arms
warrants signal control at this junction as per IRC specifications,
assuming an average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the junction will
require grade separation by the year 2025.
x Km 268/200 – To Thrissur Town

third one Road leading to Thrissur Town. The peak hour traffic at
this junction is 1362 veh/hr on major road (all directions) and 667
hour is 2478 pcu/hr. The traffic on major and minor arms warrants
signal control at this junction as per IRC specifications, assuming
an average growth rate of 8.5% p.a. the junction will require grade
As per the existing traffic and projected volumes for next 5 years or so
erection of traffic signals at the above Intersections/Junctions shall be
justified, however it is felt that to provide uninterrupted and safe flow of
the traffic on the National Highway “Grade Separators” may be
constructed at the following locations along with the widening of the
National Highway.
1. Km 202/800 Pollachi road Junction

2. Km 203/800 Palakkad bypass Starting Point
3. Km 240/900 Vadakanchery Bypass Ending Point
4. Km 268/200 Thrissur Bypass Starting Point.
Provision of flyover is also result in following advantages.
 Intersections are located in the congested urban area and pedestrian

movements are considerable.
 Traffic delays to the through traffic will be completely avoided

resulting in time savings.
 Better speed shall be maintained at the National Highway maintaining

its level of service.
SOWiL Limited. 7-32

 Uninterrupted flow shall results in savings of operating costs of the

vehicles.
 Safety at the intersection shall be ensured by separating local and

through traffic.
7.7 Speed and Delay studies
7.7.1 Objective
Speed and delay studies are intended to provide information on road

sections subject to undue traffic congestion and delay or other factors
resulting in reduced travel speeds so that suitable remedial measures can
be initiated to improve the overall travel speeds on the roads.
7.7.2 Methodology
Travel speeds on different sections of the project road were determined by

the moving car method. In this method, the test vehicle is run at the
average speed of the traffic stream so that the numbers of vehicles
overtaken by the test vehicle and the number of vehicles overtaking the
test vehicle are approximately equal. The observer determines the travel
time and delay in each kilometer of the project road by using stopwatches.
A minimum of 2 runs is made in each section at different times of the day
i.e. morning, afternoon and evening.
7.7.3 Study and Analysis
The details of average travel speeds along the project road morning,
afternoon and evening are indicated in Figure 7.32.
The average speed in the morning along the project road is 41.26 kmph,
which rises to about 43.08 kmph in the afternoon and then falls to 40.19
kmph in the evening.
SOWiL Limited. 7-33

Figure 7.32 Journey Speeds along Project Road
46.0
44.0
42.0
Speed (Kmph)
Morning
40.0 Afternoon
Evening
38.0
36.0
34.0
Valayar to Palakkad Palakkad-Alathur Alathur-Vadakanchery Vadakanchery-Thrissur
7.8 Traffic Accident Studies

Traffic accidents are random occurrences due to deficiencies in one or more of
the elements of traffic, viz, vehicle, driver, road and environment. While
deficiencies in driver behaviour, vehicle performance and environmental
characteristics are beyond the purview of the highway engineer; significant
reduction in the number of traffic accidents and their severity can be achieved
by improvements to the road system. In order to assess the economic savings
likely due to reduction in traffic accidents and their severity resulting from any
highway improvement scheme, it is necessary to analyze past traffic accident
data on the study section..
7.8.1 Methodology
Details of traffic accidents which occurred on the project road during the
past 6 years were collected from the Police records and analyzed. The
accident data collected year wise with number of accidents in respective
year has been given Figure 7.33 and Table 7.16.
SOWiL Limited. 7-34

Fig 7.33 Past Years Accident Data on NH-47
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2004 (Up
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
to 31/08)
Total Accidents 440 511 500 536 459 310

Y ear
Table 7.16 Accidents Data on NH-47 (Km 182/200 to 270/000)
Palakkad District
Valayar Police Pudussery Police Station Palakkad Police
Station Station
Year Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal
1999 13 39 17 62 3 46
2000 12 47 22 58 6 39
2001 14 45 22 61 12 37
2002 20 54 13 35 14 39
2003 12 51 12 34 10 39
2004 14 38 2 33 4 23
(31.08.2004)
Kuzhalamannam Alathoor Police Station Vadakanchery Total (Palakkad

Police Station Police Station Distrct)
Year Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal
1999 7 19 12 37 9 53 61 256
2000 8 31 17 63 9 52 74 290
2001 6 33 13 52 5 55 72 283
2002 10 40 15 76 11 70 83 314
2003 3 32 9 38 10 81 56 275
2004 8 21 9 33 7 37 44 185
(31.08.2004)
SOWiL Limited. 7-35

Thrissur District
Peechi Police Station Mannoothy Police Station Total (Thrissur District)
Year Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal Fatal Non-Fatal
1999 13 61 9 40 22 101
2000 23 77 4 43 27 120
2001 14 65 6 60 20 125
2002 6 69 13 51 19 120
2003 2 70 13 43 15 113
2004 13 34 5 29 18 63
(31.08.2004)
7.8.2 Black Spots (Accident Prone Areas):
According to the information received from the Police Department, the

following black spots with in the project area have been identified.
Palakkad District
Chullimada Palam, KTC Junction, Kurikad, Kannannur, Vadakkumuri,

Kazchaparambu, Manalur, Chelikad, Kadumuthurthi, Pirivusula,
Kadamkode, Charapparambu, Vellappara Chekkode, Swathi Junction,
Kindimukku, ITCAnchumoorthimangalam, Kariyangodu Junction, Infront
of Dayana Tower Thankam Theater Junction and Chemmanamukku
Thrissur District
Pattikad, Kompazha, Vazhukkumpara and Chemboothara, DonBosco

School Area, Mullakkara, Thottapatti, Agri. University Area, Thrissur
Bypass Junction.
7.9 Axle load survey
7.9.1 General
The intensity of traffic loading and the corresponding damaging factor of

different categories of vehicles is an important parameter for the design of
pavements. The intensity of traffic loading is defined in terms of
cumulative number of standard axle load repetitions in a given period of
time. IRC-37-1999 provides a scientific method for design for flexible
pavements based on the concept of Equivalent Standard Axle and Vehicle
Damage Factor.
7.9.2 Location of Survey
Axle load studies were carried out at two locations, at Km 190/000 in

Palakkad District on 9th and 10th August 2004 and the other at Km
SOWiL Limited. 7-36

263/700 in Thrissur district on 7th and 8th August 2004. The studies were
conducted using two calibrated electronic weigh axle load pads, one in
each direction. The studies were carried out for a continuous period of 48
hours at each location covering both directions of traffic. To avoid traffic
bottlenecks at site, the axle load survey was conducted alternatively in
each direction for 3 hours. Two axle, three axle and multi axle trucks and
light goods vehicles (both loaded and empty) were selected at random and
weighed to determine their individual axle weights. A number of buses
were also weighed at each location.
7.9.3 Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF)
Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF) can be defined as the relative pavement

damage potential of a particular vehicle of known axle load as compared
to that of a vehicle with standard axle load of 18000 lb (8.16 Tonnes). The
equivalent single axle (ESA) load factor termed as Vehicle Damage
Factor (VDF) for each vehicle is calculated using the following formula:
VDF=(AXLj/SXLj)LE
Where,
VDF= Vehicle Damage Factor
LE = Axle load equivalency exponent=4.0
AXLj = Axle load
SXLj = Standard load
The detailed calculations on derivation of the V.D.F are given in

Annexure X. Vehicle Damage Factors (VDF) were assessed for each
category of vehicles that contribute significantly to pavement distress for
project road as under:
• Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)

• Two Axle Single Unit Commercial Vehicle (2 axle)
• Three Axle Single Unit Commercial Vehicle (3 Axle)
• Multi Axle Vehicle
• Bus
Remaining vehicle types were not considered in the analysis since most of
them are too light to provide significant distress to the pavement (e.g cars,
two-wheelers, tractors, etc).
The VDF of the different types of vehicles weighed at the above two
locations and in either directions are indicated in Figure 7.34 and 7.35.
SOWiL Limited. 7-37

Fig 7.34 Vehicle Damage Factor at Km 191/000 and

263/700 (Thrissur to T/Kerala Border)
8
6.625
7
6 5.117 5.336
5
V.D.F 3.657 Km 191/000
4 2.871
3 2.166 Km 263/700
2 0.168 0.65
1 0.11 0.533
0
LCV 2 - Axle 3 - Axle Multi Axle Bus
Truck Truck Truck
Types of Vehicles
Fig 7.35 Vehicle Damage Factor at Km 191/000 and

263/700
(TN/Kerala Border to Thrissur)
8
Km 191/000
7
Km 263/700
6 5.241
5
V.D.F
3.576
4 3.1863.349
3
1.833
1.686
2
1 0.45
0.1480.081 0.305
0
LCV 2 - Axle 3 - Axle Multi Axle Bus
Truck Truck Truck
Types of Vehicles
The values of VDF to be used in pavement design needs to be carefully

selected. The combined VDF calculated for both the locations is presented
in Table 7.17.
Table 7.17: Combined VDF
Location: 190/000
Direction: Kerala Border to Thrissur Direction:Thrissur to TN/Kerala Border
Vehicle Type A.A.D.T VDF ESAL A.A.D.T VDF ESAL
LCV 252 0.148 37.296 354 0.11 38.94

2-AXLE 921 1552.806 1228 2659.848
TRUCK 1.686 2.166
3-AXLE 267 850.662 355 1298.235
TRUCK 3.186 3.657
M-AXLE 97 346.872 134 887.75
TRUCK 3.576 6.625
SOWiL Limited. 7-38

BUS 488 0.305 148.84 508 0.65 330.2

TOTAL 2025 2936.476 2579 5214.973
Combined VDF 1.450Combined VDF 2.022
Location: 263/700
Direction: Kerala Border to Thrissur Direction:Thrissur to TN/Kerala Border
Vehicle Type A.A.D.T VDF ESAL A.A.D.T VDF ESAL
LCV 479 0.081 38.799 510 0.168 85.68

2-AXLE 1603 2938.299 1807 5187.897
TRUCK 1.833 2.871
3-AXLE 393 1316.157 428 2190.076
TRUCK 3.349 5.117
M-AXLE 83 435.003 89 474.904
TRUCK 5.241 5.336
BUS 780 0.45 351 801 0.533 426.933
TOTAL 3338 5079.258 3635 8365.49
Combined VDF 1.522Combined VDF 2.301
From the above analysis the consultants recommendation is for adopting V.D.F.
value as 2.30
7.10 Traffic Forecast
7.10.1 Background
Adopting the transport demand elasticity method, which is a proven

technique worldwide and is the preferred technique in India, the traffic
forecast for the project road has been carried out. Efforts have been made
to build time series past traffic data for the project road from the available
data. This past traffic data has been obtained from the PWD (NH) offices
located along the project road. Similar time series past data on population,
state income (NSDP) and per capita income for the Study State’s has been
developed. Motor vehicle registration data for Kerala and Tamilnadu
States has also been collected.
Based on the available data for km 191/000, and 263/000 log-log

regression curve fits have been developed, for each type of vehicle and
the elasticity values obtained. Initially, past traffic census data is
regressed with the selected economic variable such as population, per
capita income and State income (NSDP). Consequently, as suggested by
the Indian Roads Congress (IRC: 108-1996), motor vehicle registration
data has been used which resulted in a good-fit. Recent trend in
traffic/vehicle registration growth, over their long-term growth for which
elasticity was worked out, is considered in moderating the elasticity
values for future periods.
SOWiL Limited. 7-39

Considering the projected elasticity values, economic development

indicators for the State’s within the project influence area and the traffic
distribution between them as arrived from traffic surveys, vehicle type
wise growth rates were worked out for different time periods. The
projected growth rates worked out major vehicle groups such as car; bus,
two wheelers and trucks were further moderated to detailed vehicle
categories, considering the likely future shift among the vehicle
categories. The probable structural shift and modal choice of vehicle
ownership from 2 axle trucks to MAV’s and 2/3 wheeler market to car
have been taken in to account while moderating the elasticity values. This
is considered necessary because as the purchasing power increases there
will be a shift from low cost vehicle to high speed/power and more
comfortable vehicles. Further, with the road improvement and realization
of economics of scale, goods operators will tend to transfer from 2 axle
trucks to Multi-Axle vehicles. These market driven forces have been
realistically considered in the traffic forecast.
7.10.2 Past Traffic Growth
Past traffic data on the Project road is available for Km 191/000, Km

203/000, Km 239/000 and Km 263/000. Past traffic data collected for
each of the sections has been analyzed. Table 7.18 below summarizes the
Annual Average Compound Growth Rate (AACGR) of traffic by vehicle
for the project road for the PWD count locations.
Table 7.18 Past Traffic Growth on the Project Road
Location
(Km) Year Cars/3Wheelers Buses Goods Vehicles TW
1992 3709 1186 3172 2393
1993 4981 2028 4039 3398
1994 5494 1715 4244 3708
1995 5974 2115 4844 4387
1996 6492 2480 5198 4709
191/000
1997 6795 2718 4456 5137
1998 7185 3161 6064 5593
1999 7485 3399 6366 5696
2000 7924 3756 6815 6017
2001 7904 3694 6546 5974
2002 7343 3385 6189 5480
AACGR(%) 1992-2002 7.07 11.06 6.91 8.64
203/000 1992 5251 1592 3516 3467
1993 4312 1756 4832 3824
1994 6011 1858 4911 3914
SOWiL Limited. 7-40

1995 6291 1785 5396 4135

1996 7024 1815 7044 5602
1997 7776 1622 8232 7135
1998 8274 1782 9473 8072
1999 8887 2022 9982 8454
2000 9740 2330 10392 9212
2001 8457 2265 8364 8574
2002 7261 1703 5511 8034
AACGR(%) 1992-2002 3.30 0.68 4.60 8.77
1992 2739 1064 2975 494
1993 2745 1170 3279 500
1994 3710 2624 2566 820
1995 3306 1423 3357 832
1996 3630 2158 3484 824
239/000
1997 4958 1626 4154 1174
1998 6775 1815 5268 2290
1999 5748 2026 4084 1856
2000 4367 1571 4745 1356
2001 5427 1943 4614 1517
2002 5981 1690 5521 1404
AACGR(%) 1992-2002 8.12 4.73 6.38 11.01
1992 2396 1133 2824 511
1993 2746 1476 3402 488
1994 2915 1483 3051 578
1995 4100 2042 4518 924
1996 5585 2266 5468 1290
263/000
1997 5556 1918 4839 1787
1998 6167 2422 5822 1643
1999 6625 2901 6037 1759
2000 5982 2853 7010 1929
2001 5552 3042 8289 2253
2002 5850 3087 9145 2622
AACGR(%) 1992-2002 9.34 10.54 12.47 17.77
Vehicle type wise annual growth rates are observed with fluctuations
among the count stations. Hence an attempt was made to calculate
elasticity values for two count stations (km 191/000 and Km 263/000) to
verify its suitability. The economic indicators of Kerala and Tamilnadu
states, which are used for the regression analysis along with traffic data
considered (km 191/000 and Km 263/000), are given in Tables 7.19to
Tables 7.22 and their detailed analysis is presented in Annexure - XI.
SOWiL Limited. 7-41

Table 7.19 Data Considered for Regression Analysis (Past Traffic at Km 191/000 and
Kerala Economy)
Per capita
NSDP (Rs. Population NSDP2 Cars/3 Goods
Year Lakhs)2 ('000) (Rs) Wheelers1 Buses1 Vehicles1 TW1
1993-94 2385107 30048 7938 4981 2028 4039 3398
1994-95 2590792 30424 8516 5494 1715 4244 3708
1995-96 2694747 30805 8748 5974 2115 4844 4387
1996-97 2802645 31186 8987 6492 2480 5198 4709
1997-98 2863315 31539 9079 6795 2718 4456 5137
1998-99 2985358 31856 9371 7185 3161 6064 5593
1999-00 3111132 32145 9678 7485 3399 6366 5696
1. Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Km 191/000 of NH 47

2. Pertaining to Kerala State at 1993-94 Constant Prices
Table 7.20 Data Considered for Regression Analysis (Past Traffic at Km 263/000 and
Kerala Economy)
Per capita
NSDP (Rs. Population NSDP2 Cars/3
2
Year Lakhs) ('000) (Rs) Wheelers1 Buses1 Goods Vehicles1 TW1
1993-94 2385107 30048 7938 2746 1476 3402 488
1994-95 2590792 30424 8516 2915 1483 3051 578
1995-96 2694747 30805 8748 4100 2042 4518 924
1996-97 2802645 31186 8987 5585 2266 5468 1290
1997-98 2863315 31539 9079 5556 1918 4839 1787
1998-99 2985358 31856 9371 6167 2422 5822 1643
1999-00 3111132 32145 9678 6625 2901 6037 1759

SOWiL Limited. 7-42

Table 7.21 Data Considered for Regression Analysis (Past Traffic at Km

191/000 and Tamilnadu Economy)
Per capita
1993-94 5164169 576872 8952 4981 2028 4039 3398
1994-95 5808144 584109 9944 5494 1715 4244 3708
1995-96 6027459 591436 10191 5974 2115 4844 4387
1996-97 6331673 598261 10583 6492 2480 5198 4709
1997-98 6793632 604442 11240 6795 2718 4456 5137
1998-99 7185175 610207 11775 7185 3161 6064 5593
1999-00 7697144 615574 12504 7485 3399 6366 5696

2. Pertaining to Tamilnadu State at 1993-94 Constant Prices
Table 7.22 Data Considered for Regression Analysis (Past Traffic at Km 263/000
and Tamilnadu Economy)
Per capita
1993-94 5164169 576872 8952 2746 1476 3402 488
1994-95 5808144 584109 9944 2915 1483 3051 578
1995-96 6027459 591436 10191 4100 2042 4518 924
1996-97 6331673 598261 10583 5585 2266 5468 1290
1997-98 6793632 604442 11240 5556 1918 4839 1787
1998-99 7185175 610207 11775 6167 2422 5822 1643
1999-00 7697144 615574 12504 6625 2901 6037 1759
1. Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Km 263/000 of NH

47
7.10.3 Elasticity’s
Passenger traffic demand is a function of growth of population and

percapita income. Similarly, State income growth, mostly govern freight
traffic growth. In line with this philosophy, the elasticity of traffic demand
for 2 W, car, bus and truck with respect to the past traffic growth was
estimated. The resultant elasticity values are presented in Tables 7.23 to
7.26.
SOWiL Limited. 7-43

Table 7.23 Regression Analysis Results (Past Traffic Data at Km 191.000

with Kerala Economy)
R2(Co- t - stat.
Dependent Independent relation Elasticity (Statistical test
Variable Variable Period Coefficient) Value Co-efficient)
log of Population 1993-2000 0.99 5.97 21.69

log of Car
Traffic log of PCI 1993-2000 0.97 2.23 13.21

log of Bus

log of TW
log of Truck
Traffic log of NSDP 1993-2000 0.78 1.73 4.22
Table 7.24 Regression Analysis Results (Past Traffic Data at Km 263.000

with Kerala Economy)
R2(Co- t - stat.

log of Car

log of Bus
Traffic log of PCI 1993-2000 0.83 3.5 5

log of TW
log of Truck
Table 7.25 Regression Analysis Results (Past Traffic Data at Km 191.000 with
Tamilnadu Economy)
R2(Co- t - stat.

log of Car

log of Bus
log of TW log of Population 1993-2000 0.98 8.38 16.72
SOWiL Limited. 7-44


log of Truck
Table 7.26 Regression Analysis Results (Past Traffic Data at Km 263.000 with
Tamilnadu Economy)
Independent R2(Co-relation Elasticity t - stat.(Statistical
Dependent Variable Variable Period Coefficient) Value test Co-efficient)
log of Car Traffic log of PCI 1993-2000 0.85 2.95 5.22
log of Bus Traffic log of PCI 1993-2000 0.78 1.96 4.16
log of TW Traffic log of PCI 1993-2000 0.85 4.42 5.26
log of Truck Traffic log of NSDP 1993-2000 0.71 1.99 3.49
The recent growth trend (1997-2002) with respect to long-term growth

trend achieved during 1993-2002 for past traffic for different vehicle
categories shows differences. The economic changes taking place in
Kerala and Tamilnadu states may explain these changes. Assuming that
these changes will have more impact in future traffic scenario of the
project road, the arrived elasticity values were moderated and
recommended for forecast, as given below in Table 7.27.
Table 7.27 Recommended Elasticity for Past Traffic Growth Weighted Average
Weighted Average* Recommended Elasticity(Weighted

Weighted Average* Economic Elasticity for 1993- Economic Average)*
Vehicle Elasticity for 1993- variable 2000(Present variable 2005- 2015 and
Type 2000(Present Study) considered Study) considered 2009 2010-2014 beyond
Car 10.17 Population 3.31 PCI 4.88 4.25 3.75
Bus 9.43 Population 5.34 PCI 3.75 3.25 2.75
Two
wheelers 14.70 Population 2.88 PCI 4.50 3.88 3.50
Trucks 1.96 NSDP 1.79 1.59 1.36
* Passenger Vehicles Contribution is 75% Kerala State and 25% Tamilnadu State
Goods Vehicles contribution is 65% Kerala State and 35% Tamilnadu State (Based on O-D Analysis)
7.10.4 Vehicle Registration Growth
To have a better idea of projections elasticity values has also been worked
out adopting the procedure as suggested by Indian Roads Congress (IRC:
108-1996). Past data for 7 years from 1993 to 2000 on vehicle type wise
registration and economic variable performance in Kerala and Tamilnadu
SOWiL Limited. 7-45

States was considered for log-log regression technique. In tune with the
analysis philosophy indicated earlier, as well the past performance and the
composition of Kerala and Tamilnadu economy, the passenger and goods
vehicles growth were regressed with the following economic indicators in
different combinations:
• Population
• Per Capita income (PCI)
• NSDP (Total)
Time series data considered for regression analysis is presented in Table

7.28 to Table 7.29.This analysis has resulted in the following ‘e’ values,
as given in Table 7.30 to Table 7.32, are found with good fit, as reflected
in their R2 and t-stat. values. Hence it is appropriate is consider the growth
pattern that has emerged out of the economic model, which related the
economic growth with the growth in vehicle registration data. Details of
statistical relationship arrived for the above ‘e’ values are given in
Annexure XI.
Table 7.28 Data Considered for Regrssion Analysis (Vehicle Registration Data
and Economic Indices for Kerala State)
Per
capita
2
NSDP (Rs. Population NSDP Cars/3 Goods
1993-94 2385107 30048 7938 226806 30370 88455 428641
1994-95 2590792 30424 8516 247605 34862 100252 496873
1995-96 2694747 30805 8748 273922 38177 111762 591923
1996-97 2802645 31186 8987 257048 43030 131311 694242
1997-98 2863315 31539 9079 330603 55482 139145 798982
1998-99 2985358 31856 9371 370964 48884 151082 904961
1999-00 3111132 32145 9678 396874 58888 163443 1020797
AACGR(%)
from 1994- 4.53 1.13 3.36 9.77 11.67 10.77 15.56
2000
1. Vehicle Registration Data Pertaining to Kerala State

Table 7.29 Data Considered for Regrssion Analysis (Vehicle Registration

Data and Economic Indices for Tamilnadu State)
Per
NSDP capita
(Rs. Population NSDP2 Cars/3 Goods
SOWiL Limited. 7-46

1993-94 5164169 576872 8952 280799 20568 115279 1586412

1994-95 5808144 584109 9944 297878 21080 126916 1815233
1995-96 6027459 591436 10191 319837 21578 142490 2101787
1996-97 6331673 598261 10583 345587 21936 152897 2454067
1997-98 6793632 604442 11240 376746 22989 164890 2816820
1998-99 7185175 610207 11775 407975 22713 174017 3214068
1999-00 7697144 615574 12504 443023 22738 183476 3678275
AACGR(%)
from 1994-2000 6.88 1.09 5.73 7.90 1.69 8.05 15.05
1. Vehicle Registration Data Pertaining to Tamilnadu State

Table 7.30 Regression Analysis Results (Vehicle Registration Data with Kerala
Economy)
R2(Co-
Dependent relation Elasticity t - stat.(Statistical
Variable Independent Variable Period Coefficient) Value test Co-efficient)

log of Car

log of Bus
log of Population 1993-2000 1 12.91 132.86

log of TW
log of
Truck
Table 7.31 Regression Analysis Results (Vehicle Registration Data with

Tamilnadu Economy)
R2(Co-
Dependent relation Elasticity t - stat.(Statistical
Variable Independent Variable Period Coefficient) Value test Co-efficient)
log of Car log of Population 1993-2000 0.99 7.05 19.01
SOWiL Limited. 7-47


log of Bus
log of Population 1993-2000 1 12.98 41.52

log of TW
log of
Truck
7.10.5 Moderated Transport Demand Elasticity
The estimated ‘e’ values, as presented in Table 7.32, are considered to

represent mainly the past traffic growth pattern. However, the future
traffic growth pattern is likely to be affected by the following factors, in
addition:
• Recent economic changes taking place in the project influence

region.
• Future modal shift among vehicle types, in road traffic as well as
between various modes;
• Development in vehicle technology.
Elasticity values considered in the recent highway projects in the study

region or recommended by multilateral funding institutions for Indian
Highway Projects are also studied.
With this background, it is necessary to moderate the elasticity values to

accommodate the above factors discussed as well as to arrive at the
growth rates that are realistic.
The arrived elasticity values were moderated and recommended for

forecast, as given below in Table 7.32.
Table 7.32 Recommended Elasticity for Vehicle Registration Growth Weighted Average
Weighted Weighted
Average* Average*
Elasticity for Elasticity for Recommended Elasticity(Weighted Average)*
1993- Economic 1993- Economic
2000(Presen variable 2000(Presen variable 2015 and
Vehicle Type t Study) considered t Study) considered 2005-2009 2010-2014 beyond
SOWiL Limited. 7-48

Car 8.00 Population 2.62 PCI 3.78 3.38 3.06

Bus 7.62 Population 2.71 PCI 2.63 2.13 1.69
Two wheelers 12.93 Population 4.24 PCI 3.50 2.88 2.69
Trucks 2.04 NSDP 1.40 1.13 0.93
* Passenger Vehicles Contribution is 75% Kerala State and 25% Tamilnadu State
Goods Vehicles contribution is 65% Kerala State and 35% Tamilnadu State (Based on O-D Analysis)
7.10.6 Future Economy Prospects
Ongoing economic liberalization measures, introduced in the nineties,

were oriented to make the national economy with a strong competitive
base, leading to an open economy system. But unfortunately, this system
makes Indian economy more prone to the global fluctuations. With the
strengths and weakness of the present system, equipped with adequate
safeguards, Indian economy has performed fairly well during the
liberalization period, as well as before, though the targets were mostly
never achieved.
Recent economic performance of the nation, in terms of net domestic

product, was found to be in the range of 5 to 6 percent growth. The Ninth
Five Year Plan Documents (1997-2002) set 7% target for economic
growth for the Nation. Independent evaluations by different agencies put
the nation’s economic growth during the Ninth Plan period, in the range
of 5.5-6.0 percent. The individual state’s economy performances and their
targets may slightly vary to the national level
Considering the factors such as past performance of the economy against

their set targets, recent developments in economic liberalization measures,
shift in between sectors, opportunities available in local and global
markets etc., future economic growth scenario is formulated for the
following time periods.
• 2005 – 2009
• 2010 – 2014
• 2015 and beyond
We feel, any projection beyond 10-15 years will have little relevance in
current context, and no further projection is attempted. Hence, the entire
period beyond 2015 has been kept as one slab. The consideration of time
periods is mainly based on the Five Year Plan periods practiced at
national and state levels.
Based on the performance of the economy and the near term economic
development contemplated in the states, the future growth pattern of
Kerala and Tamilnadu states economy is likely to follow the growth rates
indicated below:
SOWiL Limited. 7-49

Future Economic Growth Pattern(% per annum)
Year 2005-2009 2010-2014 >=2015
Kerala State
NSDP 4.00 4.50 4.00
PCI 2.86 3.46 3.07
Population 1.10 1.00 0.90
Tamilnadu State
NSDP 6.00 6.50 6.50
PCI 4.95 5.50 5.60
Population 1.00 0.90 0.85
7.10.7 Traffic growth rates
Based on the moderated elasticity values and the projected

economic/demographic indicators and with the given model as follows,
the future average annual compound traffic growth rates by vehicle type
are estimated.
Passenger Vehicles
Tgr = [(Pgr x 0.5) + (PCIgr x 0.5)] x E
Where,
Tgr – Traffic growth rate
Pgr – Population growth rate
PCIgr – Per capita income growth rate
E – Elasticity value
Above passenger vehicles model assigns equal weightage to the economic
variables of population and per capita income.
Goods Vehicles
Tgr = ( NSDPgr) x E
Where,
NSDPgr – NSDP Growth Rate

E – Elasticity Value
SOWiL Limited. 7-50

7.10.8 Optimistic, Normal & Pessimistic Growth Rates
The forecast of the traffic has been based further analyzed under three
scenarios as follows:
• Optimistic Scenario: In this scenario, the growth rates are

assumed at the maximum value observed in methods described
above.
• Pessimistic Scenario: In this scenario, the growth rates are
assumed at the worst scenario.
• Normal Scenario: Normal scenario depicts the average growth
rate considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
For the project road traffic growth rates were arrived on weighted average
basis. To assess the effect of individual state’s economy on the project
road from the states within the project influence area, traffic composition
weight for different vehicle types from different states were arrived from
origin – destination surveys. Based on the recommended elasticity’s and
the weighted economy, growth scenarios for different vehicle types on the
Project Road are presented in Table 7.33.
Table 7.33 Projected Traffic Growth Rates adopted for the

study
Projected Annual Traffic Growth Rate (%) -
Pessimistic Approach
2015 and
S.No Vehicle Type 2005-2009 2010-2014 beyond
1 Car 8.41 8.34 7.03
2 Goods Vehicles 6.56 5.86 4.53
3 Bus 5.85 5.25 3.87
4 TW 7.8 7.11 6.17
Agri
5 Tractor/Trailor 5.86 4.53 3.87
Projected Annual Traffic Growth Rate (%) -

Optimistic Approach
2015 and
1 Car 10.87 10.51 8.61
2 Goods Vehicles 8.41 8.28 6.63
3 Bus 8.36 8.04 6.31
4 TW 10.03 9.58 8.03
Agri
5 Tractor/Trailor 8.04 6.63 6.31
SOWiL Limited. 7-51

Projected Annual Traffic Growth Rate (%)

– Normal Approach
2015 and
1 Car 9.5 8.5 7.5
2 Goods Vehicles 7.5 7 5.5
3 Bus 7 6.5 5
4 TW 9 8.2 7.1
Agri
5 Tractor/Trailor 7 5.5 5
Traffic growth rates, as estimated and presented in Table 7.33 are

recommended for further planning purpose, as it represent the most likely
scenario of future traffic growth for the project road. For pavement design
and economic analysis purposes, growth rates under ‘normal scenario’ are
considered for traffic forecast. In the event the proposed project road is
considered for implementation through BOT route, it is advisable to
consider traffic growth rates under pessimistic scenario to project the
future traffic, as gathered from the limited experience available with
recent BOT toll road projects in India. Thus growth rates under
pessimistic scenario are recommended for BOT analysis.
7.10.9 Generated/Diverted Traffic
Post evaluation studies carried out along few completed four lane roads as
well the actual observations on similar completed roads indicate that
following completion of the road improvements, new developments have
occurred along the road which includes industry, educational institutions,
commercial and residential buildings. As a result of this development,
generated traffic can be expected but as yet not has been quantified. Thus
the proposed 4 lane divided highway facility for the Project Road is also
likely to attract generated and diverted traffic in view of its better
performance characteristics such as higher operating speeds and better
riding quality. However, in the absence of precise information regarding
future growth factors of parallel transport facilities such as railways, it is
reasonable to assume a notional increase in the road traffic due to
generated/diverted traffic. This generated traffic could be expected to add
to the normal traffic during the initial years when the 4-lane road facility
becomes operational. Accordingly, the generated/diverted traffic is
assumed in a phased manner as follows:
Year 1 - 1%
Year 2 - 2%
Year 3 - 3%
7.10.10 Projected Traffic
SOWiL Limited. 7-52

The mode-wise AADT has been projected in vehicles and PCUs for
different years and sections of the project road under different growth
scenarios and is presented in Annexure-XI. The Summary of projected
motorized traffic at different locations given at Table 7.34
Table 7.34 Projected Motorised A.A.D.T at Various Locations
Projected Motorised A.A.D.T(PCUs)

Optimistic Approach
S.No Location 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1 191/000 32069 48227 68211 96654 137219
2 210/600 35194 52729 74279 104822 148194
3 237/000 36865 55242 77830 109848 155318
4 263/100 47781 71763 101330 143347 203178
Projected Motorised A.A.D.T(PCUs) Normal

Approach
S.No Location 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1 191/000 30100 42356 56757 76211 102551
2 210/600 33031 46321 61795 82601 110638
3 237/000 34615 48556 64789 86616 116028
4 263/100 44817 62963 84195 112821 151504
Projected Motorised A.A.D.T(PCUs)

Pessimistic Approach
S.No Location 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1 191/000 28465 38392 49441 63878 82807
2 210/600 31230 41920 53697 68996 88945
3 237/000 32740 43974 56353 72440 93420
4 263/100 42377 57047 73299 94492 122232
7.10.11Lane Requirements
The IRC guidelines (IRC: 64-1990) stipulates the daily capacity for two and
four lanes highways as follows:
 Two Lane – 30,000 PCUs/day (Maximum at LOS-F)

 Four Lane – 80,000 PCUs/day (Maximum at LOS-F)
However, IRC guidelines suggest service volume corresponding to level of
service B (which corresponds to a service volume 50% of the maximum
SOWiL Limited. 7-53

capacity, i.e. 15000 PCU/day for 2 lane road and 40,000 PCU/day for 4 lane
road) as design capacity.
Based on the above capacity criteria, the lane configuration for the project
road during the analysis period is worked out and results of same are
summarized in Table 7.35
Table 7.35 Section-wise Lane Requirements
Eligible for 4-lane widening Eligible for 6-lane widening

Optimistic Pessimistic Normal Optimistic Pessimistic
Normal Growth Growth Growth Growth Growth Growth
Homogeneous Section Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario
Kerala Border to
Palakkad 2004 2004 2004 2014 2013 2016
Palakkad to Alathoor 2004 2004 2004 2013 2012 2014
Alathoor to Vadakanchery 2004 2004 2004 2012 2011 2014
Vadakanchery to Thrissur 2004 2004 2004 2009 2008 2010
As shown above, all the sections of the project road are eligible for
widening to 4-lane configuration.
SOWiL Limited. 7-54

Chapter 7 (Final)

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 7 (Final)

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

National Highways Authority of India

Preparation of Feasibility Study and DPR of Kerala Border to Thrissur

7.0 TRAFFIC SURVEYS, ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

In planning and design of a highway an appreciation of the traffic expected to use

The primary objectives of this traffic study are to:

• assess the characteristics of traffic movement on the project road

SOWiL Limited. 7-1

• Traffic volume count surveys at 4 locations for 7 days

The Locations of the surveys conducted shown in Figure 7.1.

7.2 Classified Traffic Volume Counts

SOWiL Limited. 7-2

Table 7.1 Classified Traffic Count Locations

HS-1 Kerala/TN Border 24th July –

HS-2 Palakkad (Km 15th July –

HS-3 Alathur (Km 226) 21st July –

HS-4 Vadakancherry 13th July –

7.2.3 Results and Analysis

 The Average Daily traffic on the project road ranges between

 The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) is close to 17200 PCU’s in

SOWiL Limited. 7-3

 The traffic indicates that significant traffic generators along the

 There are about 3800 trucks observed in Section 3 and 4 compared

 The passenger car traffic ranges from 3085 in Section 2 to 4216

 Two-wheeler traffic ranges from 2226 in Section 4 to 2057 in

 The slow moving traffic is slightly high on Section 1, otherwise it

The Day wise variation of traffic mode wise at Km 191/000 is indicated in

Similarly for other locations i.e at Km 210/600, Km 237/000 & Km

SOWiL Limited. 7-4

7 Day CVC Locations

Turning Movement Survey Locations

O-D Survey/Axle Load Survey Locations

Pedestrian Count Locations

Figure 7.1 Traffic Survey Locations

SOWiL Limited. 7-5

SOWiL Limited. 7-6

Figures 7.2 to 7.4

SOWiL Limited. 7-7

Figures 7.5 to 7.7

SOWiL Limited. 7-8

Figures 7.8 to 7.10

SOWiL Limited. 7-9

Figures 7.11 to 7.13

SOWiL Limited. 7-10

Figures 7.14 to 7.16

SOWiL Limited. 7-11

Figures 7.17 to 7.19

SOWiL Limited. 7-12

Figures 7.20 to 7.22

SOWiL Limited. 7-13

Figures 7.23 to 7.25

SOWiL Limited. 7-14

The traffic intensity at different count locations is presented in Figure 7.26.

Fig 7.26 Intensity of Traffic (No. of Vehicles) in different sections of

TRAFFIC VOLUME(NUMBERS) 16000

10000 Agr Tr actor/ T railor

Km 191/000 Km 210/600 Km 237/000 Km 263/100

7.2.4 Hourly Variation and Peak hour factor

The highest and lowest hourly volumes of traffic in different sections of

Table 7.3: Highest and Lowest traffic volume in different sections.

Highest hourly traffic volume Lowest hourly traffic volume

The hourly distributions of motorised and non-motorised vehicles as well

SOWiL Limited. 7-15