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Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Cropping Industry in Western Australia

Wheat is the major crop in Australia in terms of value, volume and area. Wheat was grown in
12,257 kilo hectares to produce 13,093 kilo tones of grain in 2007 (Grain Year Book 2008).
Western Australia shares the majority of area and production every year and contributed 67% of
the total wheat export in 2009/10 (WEA, 2010).

Yields are generally low due to low rainfall, high vapor pressure deficit and low soil fertility and
can vary as much as 60% in response to climate variability (Howden and Crimp, 2005). Thus the
Australian wheat industry is highly sensitive to climatic influences. Increases in levels of
atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases are considered likely to significantly change global
climate, increasing temperature and changing regional rainfall patterns, with consequent impacts
on the wheat industry. However, there is considerable uncertainty in scenarios of CO2 increase
and related climate change.

Atmospheric CO2 levels may rise from current levels (378 ppm) to between 520 ppm to 750 ppm
by the year 2100. Several effects of elevated CO2 on climatic parameter have already been
experienced worldwide and in Australia. The main effects are rising temperatures, changing
rainfall pattern, reducing frost incidence, increased evaporation etc. The existing crop plants are
going to be affected by these changes in climatic parameters.

Climate Change Projections

Several models have been developed to predict the future changes in these climatic parameters
relative to 1990 baseline. This study uses a model developed by CSIRO (available from
www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au) to predict the temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and
evaporation of Western Australia in 2050 during wheat growing season (winter). This report uses
the prediction on the 90th percentile and 3 scenarios – low and medium and high emissions.

Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation are important in determining growth of
wheat. These climatic factors of Western Australia were projected for 2050 winter under low,
medium and high emission scenarios. The projections showed a variable changes within the
region. Change in rainfall showed the highest variability followed by evaporation. All the
emission scenarios projected a variable but rise in temperature. Even the lowest emission
scenario showed a minimum of 20C rise in most of the wheat belt (Fig 1). Wheat belt spreads in
eastern and north-eastern part of the state (Fig 5). Unfortunately, the wheat belt will be affected
most. Variability in winter rainfall pattern will be very high ranging from a slight decrease to
increase by as high as 40%. The current wheat belt will receive at least 20% higher rainfall even
under the lowest emission scenario (Fig 2). Relative humidity is projected to increase slightly
even under high emission scenario. The maximum increase is only by 3% in current wheat belt
in Western Australia (Fig 3). Winter evaporation will also substantially increase under medium
and high emission scenarios (Fig 4). Low to medium emission scenario predicts that higher
evaporation will be from coastal and nearby regions. But the high emission scenario predicts a
high evaporation (12%) from about half of the wheat belt.

Challenges to wheat industry

Several studies have shown that elevated CO2 alone (no change in rainfall and temperature)
increased wheat yields substantially. However, high CO2 levels may not compensate for yield
losses when plants are grown in high temperatures and causing stress. Growth period of wheat
would be shortened due to faster metabolic processes under higher temperatures. Higher rainfall
in the wheat belt may have beneficial effect provided proper drainage and will offset problems
caused by higher evaporation. Wheat cultivation may be extended to those areas where rainfall is
currently limiting. Even small increase in relative humidity combined with high temperatures
and rainfall may have significant impact on biology of pests and diseases. Some existing diseases
may be more severe than before and/or new ones might arise. The wheat belt may be facing yield
decline due to high temperatures, shortened growth period and disease and pest problems.
However, there are opportunities of harnessing benefits from higher rainfall. A range of studies
indicate that grain protein contents are likely to fall in response to combined climate and CO2
changes which will significantly downgrade the grain prices unless fertilizer applications are
increased. Hike in production costs might change competitiveness of the wheat industry.

Adaptation Strategies

Many adaptation strategies are available to offset the projected impacts of climate change in
Western Australia. The adaptation strategy involves modification in crop management,
generation of new technologies and policy considerations. Modification of current management
practices, if adopted, have potential to offset negative climate change impacts and take advantage
of positive ones. Positive impacts like reduction in frost incidence and high rainfall will allow
extension of wheat areas. The following are the major adaption strategies.

Crop management

• Shift of planting a bit earlier in the season will offset the impacts of increased
temperatures if moisture is not a constraint. A bit delayed planting in drier areas will be
helpful.

• Staggering of planting times

• Using seasonal forecast to manage production risks.

• Developing efficient irrigation and drainage systems.

• Monitoring and responding to emerging pests.


• Assessing fertilizer inputs and their efficiencies.

Generation of new technologies

• Development of varieties tolerant to heat stress is very important. Drought tolerant


varieties are necessary for the areas going to be drier.

• Varieties with higher nutrient (mainly nitrogen) use efficiencies are necessary to offset
the impacts caused by high fertilizer requirement. Fortunately, there is a big room to
increase the nutrient use efficiencies. For instance, nitrogen use efficiencies currently are
only about 50%.

• Generation of technologies for better drainage for high rainfall areas and water use
efficiencies for drier areas.

Policy considerations

• The existing policies should be reviewed and new policies should be formulated to
encourage the primary industries to adapt the climate change adaptation strategies.

Key Research Areas

The researches also should focus on issues of crop management, technology generation and
policy considerations. Different climate models currently used show considerably variable
projections. Researches to understand the impact of climatic parameters and development of
more precise models are important to accurately predict future climate. Crop management
researches should focus mainly on how planting time (early or delay) can be manipulated to
offset the negative impacts of climate change because this approach is expected to have a
considerably big advantage. Other crop management research issues are the practices that
improve water use and nutrient use efficiencies. Researches on transferring heat and drought
tolerant genes from weedy species will be most important in developing new varieties. In
addition, research endeavors should focus on developing nitrogen efficient varieties to offset
high nitrogen demand in future. Policy changes in response to climate change by other countries
will definitely impact wheat industry in Australia. Therefore, policy researches on these likely
impacts should be conducted.
Fig 1. Projection of winter temperature in Western Australia (90th percentile, 1990 baseline).
Fig 2. Projection of winter rainfall in Western Australia (90th percentile, 1990 baseline).
Fig 3. Projection of winter relative humidity in Western Australia (90th percentile, 1990 baseline).
• Fig 4. Projection of winter evaporation in Western Australia (90th percentile, 1990 baseline).
Fig 5. Map of wheat belts in Western Australia

Bibliography

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