مذكره الاحصاء

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ اﺛﻨﲔ أو أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻈﺎﻫﺮة ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺆدي اﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ أﺣﺪﳘﺎ ﻋﲆ اﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ اﻵﺧﺮ ‪..‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪(1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪(2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻃﺮدﻳﺎ ً ) ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎ ً ( إذا زادت ﻗﻴﻤﺔ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ أو ﻧﻘﺼﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‬
‫ً‬
‫ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺎ( إذا زادت ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺑﻨﻘﺼﺎن ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻘﺼﺎن ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ ‪..‬وﻳﻜﻮن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺎ ً )‬
‫وإذا ﻧﻘﺼﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ ‪...‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
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‫‪ ‬‬
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‫‪................................................................................................................................‬‬
‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻸﺯﻭﺍﺝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺣﺪﺍﺛﻲ ﻳﺴﻤﻲ ) ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ (‬
‫ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪x , y‬‬
‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻨﻌﺪم‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﺴﻲ )ﺳﺎﻟﺐ( ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻟﯿﺲ ﺧﻄﯿﺎ‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻃﺮدي )ﻣﻮﺟﺐ(‬
‫) زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪y‬‬
‫)ﻧﻘﺼﺎن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪y‬‬
‫) ﻻ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬ ‫) ﻻ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪( x‬‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺧﻄﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬ ‫(‬ ‫‪x‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫زﯾﺎدة‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮﯾﻦ ‪ ، x , y‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮﯾﻦ ‪( x , y‬‬ ‫اﻧﻮاﻋﻪ‬ ‫اﻧﻮاﻋﻪ‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫اﻻ ﻧﮫ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ رﺳﻢ‬
‫‪ (1‬ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺧﻄﻲ‬ ‫‪ (1‬ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺧﻄﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﯾﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ‬
‫) إذا اﻣﻜﻦ رﺳﻢ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر وﻻ‬ ‫) إذا اﻣﻜﻦ رﺳﻢ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ (‬
‫ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﻘﺎط (‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﻘﺎط (‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫‪y‬‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺗﺎم‬ ‫‪ (2‬ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺗﺎم‬
‫) إذا وﻗﻌﺖ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻧﻘﺎط ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر‬ ‫) إذا وﻗﻌﺖ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻧﻘﺎط ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر‬
‫ﻋﲆ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ (‬ ‫ﻋﲆ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ (‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬
‫‪‬‬

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‫ﻳﻤﺜﻞ اﳉﺪول اﻵﰐ أﻃﻮال ﻋﴩة ﻃﻼب ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺘﻴﻤﱰات وأوزاﳖﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮاﻣﺎت‪..‬ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر وﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ اﻟﻄﻮل واﻟﻮزن وﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ‪...‬‬
‫اﻟﻄﻮل‬ ‫‪180‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬ ‫‪158‬‬ ‫‪165‬‬ ‫‪175‬‬ ‫‪163‬‬ ‫‪145‬‬ ‫‪190‬‬ ‫‪180‬‬ ‫‪155‬‬
‫اﻟﻮزن‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪54‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪74‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ درﺟﺎت ‪ 7‬ﻃﻼب ﰲ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺬﻛﺎء ودرﺟﺎﲥﻢ ﰲ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ‪.‬‬
‫‪..‬ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر وﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ درﺟﺎت اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ ﰲ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺬﻛﺎء ودرﺟﺎﲥﻢ ﰲ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ‪..‬‬
‫درﺟﺎت اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺬﻛﺎء‬ ‫‪110‬‬ ‫‪120‬‬ ‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪125‬‬ ‫‪130‬‬ ‫‪115‬‬
‫درﺟﺎت اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪87‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫ﻳﺒﲔ اﳉﺪول اﻵﰐ ﻣﻌﺪل درﺟﺎت ‪ 7‬ﻃﻼب ﰲ اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮي وﻣﻌﺪل درﺟﺎﲥﻢ ﰲ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ اﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ اﻷوﱃ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﺎدة اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ‪..‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺪرﺟﺎت ﰲ اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮي‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪77‬‬ ‫‪87‬‬ ‫‪68‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺪرﺟﺎت ﰲ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ اﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ اﻷوﱃ‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

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‫ﻣﻘﺪرة ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺘﻴﻤﱰات ﻟﻜﻞ ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺔ واﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬ﺑﺎﻟﺜﻮاﲏ ‪..‬‬ ‫‪v‬‬ ‫ﻳﺒﲔ اﳉﺪول اﻵﰐ اﻟﴪﻋﺔ‬
‫ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ‪..‬وﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬واﻟﴪﻋﺔ ‪v‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪t‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫اﻟﴪﻋﺔ ‪v‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﺜﻞ اﳉﺪول اﻵﰐ ﻋﻼﻣﺎت ‪ 12‬ﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎ ً ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎﻧﲔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﲔ اﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﲈ ‪ : 25‬ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ‪..‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫إن اﺳﺘﻌﲈل ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻏﲑ ﻛﺎف‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ..‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﻴﺎس أﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ ﳛﺪد ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ودرﺟﺘﻪ‬
‫‪r‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ اﻟﻘﻮة واﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻫﺬا اﳌﻘﻴﺎس ﺑـــــــ ) ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ( وﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x ) ( yi − y‬‬

‫× =‪r‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪σx × σy‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫‪:x‬‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫‪: y‬‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫‪:σx‬‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫‪:σy‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﻗﻴﻢ أي ﻣﻦ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‬ ‫‪:n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪-1 ‬‬ ‫‪ ‬ﺑﺼﻮرة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ‪ r‬ﳏﺼﻮرة ﺑﲔ ‪ 1‬و ‪ – 1‬أي أن ‪r  1:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﰲ وﺻﻒ ﻗﻮة اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻋﲆ اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ‪r‬‬
‫ﻛﲈ ﲢﺪد اﺷﺎرﺗﻪ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﻮﻧﻪ ﻃﺮدﻳﺎ ً او ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺎ ً ‪..‬‬
‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﴘ ﺗﺎم‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻨﻌﺪم‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻃﺮدي ﺗﺎم‬

‫ﻗﻮي‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻗﻮي‬
‫‪−1‬‬ ‫‪− 0.8‬‬ ‫‪− 0.5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪7‬‬
‫اذﻛﺮي درﺟﺔ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط وﻧﻮﻋﻪ ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ x , y‬إذا ﻋﻠﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪r = -1‬‬
‫‪r = 0.95‬‬
‫‪r = - 0.67‬‬
‫‪r=0‬‬
‫‪r=1‬‬
‫‪r = 0.24‬‬
‫‪r = - 0.85‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻋﺪد اﻷﺟﻬﺰة اﳌﺒﻴﻌﺔ ‪ x‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﺎﺟﺮ وﻣﺪة ﺧﱪة ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ‪: y‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻷﺟﻬﺰة اﳌﺒﻴﻌﺔ ‪x‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫ﺳﻨﻮات اﳋﱪة ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪σ x = 2 . 9 , σ y = 3 , x = 10 , y = 8‬‬

‫أﺣﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲑﺳﻮن ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ x , y‬ﺛﻢ ﺣﺪدي ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪....‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ ؟‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ درﺟﺎت ﺛﲈﻧﻴﺔ ﻃﻼب ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﳖﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬
‫واﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﳖﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻌﺎم ﰲ ﻣﺎدة اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ) اﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 55‬درﺟﺔ (‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪62‬‬ ‫‪81‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬

‫درﺟﺔ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺪراﳼ اﻷول ‪x‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬
‫درﺟﺔ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻌﺎم ‪y‬‬
‫أﺣﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲑﺳﻮن ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ x , y‬ﺛﻢ ﺣﺪدي ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪....‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ ؟‬
‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 1 1 , σ y = 9 . 4 , x = 7 8 , y = 8 0 :‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x )( yi − y‬‬

‫× = ‪r‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮن ‪:‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪σx × σy‬‬

‫‪9‬‬
‫اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪ x‬واﻹﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪ y‬ﳌﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ اﴎ ﺣﻴﺚ ‪x , y‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪرة ﺑﺎﻵﻟﻒ اﻟﺪراﻫﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪x‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫اﻹﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪y‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫أﺣﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ) ‪ ( r‬ﺑﲔ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪ x‬واﻹﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪y‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 1.9 , σ y = 1.6 , x = 5.9 , y = 5 :‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x )( yi − y‬‬

‫× = ‪r‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮن ‪:‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪σx × σy‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﺣﺪدي ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪ ....‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ‪...‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ درﺟﺎت ﳎﻮﻋﺔ اﺧﺘﲑت ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺎ ً ﻣﻦ ﻃﻠﺒﺔ إﺣﺪى اﳌﺪارس ﰲ ﻣﺎدﰐ اﻟﻠﻐﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ واﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ‪:‬‬
‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪54‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪62‬‬ ‫‪68‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬
‫درﺟﺎت ﻣﺎدة اﻟﻠﻐﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪x‬‬
‫‪37‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬ ‫‪31‬‬ ‫‪39‬‬
‫درﺟﺎت ﻣﺎدة اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ‪y‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 7 . 3 , σ y = 3 . 5 , x = 59 . 6 , y = 34 :‬‬

‫أﺣﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط اﳋﻄﻲ ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ x , y‬ﺛﻢ ﺣﺪدي ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪....‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ ؟‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪y=ax+b‬‬
‫‪σy‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫=‪a‬‬ ‫‪×r‬‬ ‫‪b = y −a x‬‬
‫‪σx‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﻘﻴﻢ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ‪x‬‬ ‫_‬
‫اﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ = اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ – اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﲠﺎ‬ ‫_‬
‫‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ 0.7‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪σ x = 3.5 , σ y = 2 , x = 70 , y = 50‬‬
‫ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬؟‬

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‫‪ (2‬ﺧﻄﺄ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ x = 60‬وﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ = ‪45‬‬
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‫‪12‬‬
‫‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ 0.8‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪σ y = 3 , σ x = 2 .4 , y = 18 , x = 13‬‬

‫‪ (1‬ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬؟‬
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‫‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ 0.9‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪x = 6 , y = 75 , σ x = 3 , σ y = 15‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬؟‬

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‫‪‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫أﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﲡﺮﺑﺔ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﳌﺘﻮاﺻﻞ ﰲ دﻗﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ اﻷﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺮﺗﻜﺒﻬﺎ اﳌﻮﻇﻒ ‪...‬‬
‫ﻳﺒﲔ اﳉﺪول ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ‪..‬وﻛﺎن ‪σ y = 3 .4 , y = 9 . 5 , σ x = 6 . 1 , x = 15 . 5 :‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد ﺳﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﳌﺘﻮاﺻﻞ ‪x‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻷﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺮﺗﻜﺒﻬﺎ اﳌﻮﻇﻒ ‪y‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ‪..‬وﻫﻞ ﺗﻌﺘﻘﺪي وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺧﻄﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ x , y‬؟‬
‫‪y‬‬ ‫‪.....................................................................‬‬
‫‪ (2‬أوﺟﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪r = 0.87‬‬
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‫‪x ......................................................................‬‬
‫‪ (3‬أوﺟﺪي ﺧﻄﺄ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ x = 16‬؟‬
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‫‪ (4‬ﺗﻨﺒﺊ ﺑﻌﺪد اﻷﺧﻄﺎء ‪ y‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ x = 30‬؟‬

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‫‪ (5‬اﻋﻤﲇ ﺟﺪوﻻ ً ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ y‬اﳌﻌﻄﺎة ؟‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫اﳌﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﲠﺎ‬ ‫‪y‬‬
‫اﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬

‫‪14‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﰲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﳌﺠﺎور زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻮز ﺑﺎﻟﺜﻮاﲏ ﳌﺴﺎﺑﻘﺎت اﻷوﳌﺒﻴﺎد ‪ 800 m‬ﺟﺮي رﺟﺎل ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم‬
‫‪ 1948‬م إﱃ ﻋﺎم ‪ 1992‬م ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ t = 0‬ﲤﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﺎم ‪ 1948‬م‬

‫‪ (a‬ارﺳﻤﻲ اﳌﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ اﻟﺬي ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ؟‬
‫‪ ( b‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺬي ﺣﺼﻠﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻮز‬
‫ﳍﺬه اﳌﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﺎم ‪ 2000‬م ؟‬
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‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﰲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﳌﺠﺎور زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻮز ﺑﺎﻟﺜﻮاﲏ ﳌﺴﺎﺑﻘﺎت ‪ 400 m‬ﻋﺪو ﻧﺴﺎء ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم ‪ 1948‬م‬
‫إﱃ ﻋﺎم ‪ 1992‬م ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ t = 0‬ﲤﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﺎم ‪ 1948‬م‬
‫‪ ( a‬ارﺳﻤﻲ اﳌﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ اﻟﺬي ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ؟‬
‫‪ ( b‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺬي رﺳﻤﺘﻴﻪ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻮز‬

‫اﳌﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺎم ‪ 1992‬م ؟ ﺛﻢ أوﺟﺪي اﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ؟‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ x‬واﻧﺤﺮاﻓﻪ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ‪σ‬‬ ‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ x‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﰲ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻪ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ )‪ (z‬ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻫﺪة ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪x−x‬‬
‫=‪z‬‬ ‫‪:σ ≠ 0‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻻﻧﺤﺮاﻓﺎت اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻌﺪﻫﺎ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﻋﻦ اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬ ‫_‬
‫_ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﻓﻮق اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪.‬‬
‫_ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﲢﺖ اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ﻛﺎن اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﺪرﺟﺎت ﻃﻼب ﺻﻒ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪ ، 73‬واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ‪4‬‬
‫وﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﻟﻠﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎء ﻟﻠﺼﻒ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻛﺎن اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻄﻼب ﻫﻮ ‪ 80‬واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ‪ 5‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ درﺟﺔ أﺣﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻼب ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎن اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ﻫﻲ ‪ 85‬ودرﺟﺘﻪ ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎن اﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎء ﻫﻲ ‪ 90‬ﻓﻔﻲ أي اﻻﻣﺘﺤﺎﻧﲔ ﻛﺎن ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﲢﺼﻴﻠﻪ أﻓﻀﻞ ؟‬
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‫‪16‬‬
‫أﻋﻠﻦ ﻣﻌﺮض ﻟﺒﻴﻊ اﳌﻔﺮوﺷﺎت ﻋﻦ ﺑﻴﻊ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻧﻮم وﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺟﻠﻮس ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد ﻏﺮف اﻟﻨﻮم اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺎً‬
‫ﻫﻮ ‪ 35‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ وﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪ 9‬وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد ﻏﺮف اﳉﻠﻮس اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺎ ً ﻫﻮ ‪ 20‬وﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪6‬‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﺑﺎع ﻣﻮﻇﻒ ﰲ اﳌﻌﺮض ﰲ أﺣﺪ اﻷﺷﻬﺮ ‪ 40‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻧﻮم وﺑﺎع ﻣﻮﻇﻒ أﺧﺮ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪ 23‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺟﻠﻮس ‪...‬‬
‫ﻓـــــــﺈي اﳌﻮﻇﻔﻴـــــــﻦ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺗـــــــــــﻪ أﻓﻀـــــــﻞ ‪..‬ﻓﺴـــــــــــــــــﺮي إﺟﺎﺑﺘـــــــــــــــﻚ ؟‬
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‫أﻋﻠﻦ ﻣﻌﺮض ﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺳﻴﺎرات ﻣﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻣﻌﲔ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﺴﻴﺎرة اﳌﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﳌﺪة ﺳﻨﺘﲔ ﻫﻮ ‪ 30000‬درﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺑﺈﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻣﻘﺪاره ‪ 3000‬درﻫﻢ وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﺴﻴﺎرة اﳌﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﳌﺪة ﺛﻼث ﺳﻨﻮات ﻫﻮ ‪ 24000‬درﻫﻢ ﺑﺈﻧﺤﺮاف‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪ 3500‬درﻫﻢ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن ﻋﺮض ﻫﺬا اﳌﻌﺮض ﺳﻴﺎرة ﻣﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﳌﺪة ﺳﻨﺘﲔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 32500‬درﻫﻢ وﺳﻴﺎرة ﻣﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﳌﺪة ﺛﻼث ﺳﻨﻮات ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 27200‬درﻫﻢ ‪..‬ﻓﺄي اﻟﻌﺮﺿﲔ أﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ إﱃ اﳌﺸﱰي ؟‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪17‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﻌﺮض ﲡﺎري ﻏﺴﺎﻻت وﺛﻼﺟﺎت ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻐﺴﺎﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ أﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺎ ً ﻫﻮ ‪ 56‬ﻏﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻣﻘﺪاره ‪ 12‬ﻏﺴﺎﻟﺔ وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺜﻼﺟﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ أﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺎ ً ‪ 15‬ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻣﻘﺪاره ‪ 3‬ﺛﻼﺟﺎت ﻓﺈذا‬
‫ﺑﺎع ﻣﻮﻇﻒ ﰲ اﳌﻌﺮض ﰲ أﺣﺪ اﻷﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ ‪ 65‬ﻏﺴﺎﻟﺔ وﺑﺎع ﻣﻮﻇﻒ آﺧﺮ ﰲ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ 18‬ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ‪..‬‬
‫ﻓﺄي اﳌﻮﻇﻔﲔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺗﻪ أﻓﻀﻞ ‪...‬ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ ؟‬
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‫ﻣﺪرﺳﺔ ﻣﺸﱰﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺣﻠﺘﲔ اﻹﻋﺪادﻳﺔ واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ وﺟﺪ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أوزان ﻃﻠﺒﻪ اﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻹﻋﺪادﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ‪ 60‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام‬
‫واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪ 5‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أوزان اﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ‪ 72‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام ﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪ 8‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن وزن أﺣﺪ ﻃﻠﺒﺔ اﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻹﻋﺪادﻳﺔ ‪ 70‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام ووزن اﺣﺪ ﻃﻠﺒﺔ اﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ ‪ 82‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮام‬
‫ﻓﺈﳞﲈ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ وزﻧﻪ أﻛﺜﺮ ارﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎ ً ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ إﱃ أوزان ﻃﻠﺒﻪ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺘﻪ ﰲ اﳌﺪرﺳﺔ ‪....‬ﻓﴪي إﺟﺎﺑﺘﻚ ؟‬
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‫‪18‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻷﻃﻮال ﻃﻼب إﺣﺪى ﻣﺪارس اﻟﺒﻨﲔ ‪ 160 cm‬ﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪8 cm‬‬
‫واﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻷﻃﻮال ﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎت إﺣﺪى ﻣﺪارس اﻟﺒﻨﺎت ‪ 145 cm‬ﺑﺎﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻗﺪره ‪... 5 cm‬‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن ﻃﻮل أﺣﺪ اﻟﻄﻼب ‪ 170 cm‬وﻃﻮل أﺣﺪ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎت ‪..... 150 cm‬أوﺟﺪي ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﻟﻄﻮل ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ واﻟﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ؟‬
‫‪ (2‬أﳞﲈ أﻛﺜﺮ ﻃﻮﻻ ً ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ ﻣﺪرﺳﺘﻪ ؟ وﳌــــــــــــﺎذا ؟‬
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‫ً‬
‫اﻣﺘﺤﺎﻧﺎ ﻣﺸﱰﻛﺎ ًﻟﻘﺒﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ اﻟﺮاﻏﺒﲔ ﰲ اﻻﻟﺘﺤﺎق ﲠﲈ ‪..‬واﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬ ‫ﲡﺮي ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺘﺎن‬
‫واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻟﺪرﺟﺎت اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ اﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﲔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺘﲔ ﰲ ﻫﺬا اﻻﻣﺘﺤﺎن ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪21.1‬‬ ‫‪20.4‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﺗﻘﺪم ﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎن ﻟﻼﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﻓﺤﺼﻞ اﻷول ﻋﲆ درﺟﺔ ‪ 25‬وﺣﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﲏ ﻋﲆ درﺟﺔ ‪ 30‬ﻓﺤﺪدي ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﲈ أي اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺘﲔ ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﻪ أﻓﻀﻞ ‪ً ..‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﲈ ﺑﺄن ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﲈ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ اﻹﻟﺘﺤﺎق ﺑﺄي ﻣﻦ اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺘﲔ ‪..‬وأن إﻋﺪاد اﳌﻘﺒﻮﻟﲔ ﻓﻴﻬﲈ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﻳﺔ ؟‬
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‫ـﻲ‬‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﺒﲔ اﳉﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﱄ اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻟﺪرﺟﺎت ﻃﻼب ﺻﻒ ﰲ اﻣﺘﺤﺎﲏ اﳉﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺎ واﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت‪..‬‬
‫ودرﺟﺎت ﺛﻼث ﻃﻼب ﻣﻦ ﻃﻼب ﻫﺬا اﻟﺼﻒ ﰲ اﻻﻣﺘﺤﺎﻧﲔ ‪..‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫درﺟﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ رﻗﻢ )‪(1‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫درﺟﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ رﻗﻢ )‪(2‬‬
‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬ ‫درﺟﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ رﻗﻢ )‪(3‬‬
‫ً‬
‫اﻋﺘﲈدا ﻋﲆ اﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪..‬ﻗﺎرﲏ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﲢﺼﻴﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﻼب اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﰲ اﻻﻣﺘﺤﺎﻧﲔ ؟‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ً‬
‫ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮا ﺣﻮل اﳋﻂ اﻟﺮأﳼ اﳌﺎر ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬ ‫ً‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮارﻳﺎ واﲣﺬ ﻫﺬا اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ ‪‬‬ ‫ً‬
‫ﺗﻮزﻳﻌﺎ‬ ‫إذا ﻣﺜﻠﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺈن ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎ ً ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴﺎ ً وأﻣﺎ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﺬي ﻳﻤﺜﻠﻪ ﻓﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴﺎ ً ‪..‬‬
‫وﲣﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻌﺎت اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼف ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﲥﺎ اﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ أو اﻧﺤﺮاﻓﺎﲥﺎ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري أو ﻛﻠﻴﻬﲈ ﻣﻌﺎ ً ﻛﲈ ﰲ اﻷﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻌﺎن ﳍﲈ ‪ ....................‬ﻧﻔﺴﻪ وﳐﺘﻠﻔﺎن ﰲ ‪..............................‬‬
‫)‪( x‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻌﺎن ﳍﲈ ‪ ....................‬ﻧﻔﺴﻪ وﳐﺘﻠﻔﺎن ﰲ ‪..............................‬‬
‫)‪( x‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻌﺎن ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺎن ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪...............................‬و ‪..............................‬‬


‫‪21‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬إذا ﺣﻮﻟﺖ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪات ﰲ أي ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ إﱃ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ واﺣﺪ‬
‫ﻭﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ً ﻭﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﻪ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ‪1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻪ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ) ‪( z‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﻤﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري وﯾﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﺎه اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﺹ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (1‬اﻟﻤﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ واﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎوي وﺣﺪة ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ‪.....................‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮ ) ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ( ﺣﻮل اﻟﺨﻂ اﻟﺮأﺳﻲ اﻟﻤﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ وﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﯿﮫ ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ = ‪....................... = .....................‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻻ ﯾﻠﺘﻘﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ وإﻧﻤﺎ ‪ .......................‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ اﺑﺘﻌﺪﻧﺎ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﯾﻤﯿﻨﺎ ً أو ﯾﺴﺎرا ً‪.‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﻣﺤﻮر اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﯾﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ واﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺘﯿﻦ ‪..............‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪ ................‬وﺣﺪة ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺼﻮرة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ واﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪.. ‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪22‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪ = z ، z = 0‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 1.75 ، z = 0‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 1 ، z = 0‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪23‬‬
‫‪2008 /‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪ = z ، z = 0‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = -1.95 ، z = 0‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪z = 1.25‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪z = 1‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪25‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = 1.43‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪26‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪z = - 0.93‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪z = -1.91‬‬

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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪z = - 1‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪27‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = - 0.79‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = -1.44‬‬

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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = - 0.3‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = -1.17‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪28‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪ = z ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔﺑﲔ ‪z = 2.3 ، z = 1.25‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 3.05 ، z = 1.13‬‬

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‫‪‬‬
‫‪29‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪ = z ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻨﺔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = - 0.65 ، z = -1.5‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = - 0.7 ، z = -1.53‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = -2.85 ، z = -0.88‬‬

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‫‪‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎب اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪ = z‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪ = z ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ‪..‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 0.75 ، z = - 0.42‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 1.7 ، z = -1.79‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 1.08 ، z = - 0.88‬‬

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‫‪‬‬
‫‪31‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = 3‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪z = -2‬‬

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‫‪32‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = 1.3 ، z = -2.1‬‬
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‫أوﺟﺪي اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪z = - 0.13 ، z = 0‬‬
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‫‪‬‬
‫‪33‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن اﻹﻳﺪاع اﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻌﻤﻼء أﺣﺪ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ واﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻋﺪدﻫﻢ ‪ 1000‬ﻋﻤﻴﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﰊ ‪ 500‬درﻫﻢ واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ‪ 100‬درﻫﻢ ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﻋﺪد اﻷﺷﺨﺎص اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﱰاوح اﻳﺪاﻋﻬﻢ اﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﺑﲔ ‪ 300‬درﻫﻢ و ‪ 700‬درﻫﻢ ؟‬
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‫ب( اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﺷﺨﺎص اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮن إﻳﺪاﻋﻬﻢ اﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ أو ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪ 450‬درﻫﻢ ؟‬
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‫‪34‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻼب ﰲ اﳌﺪارس اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻹﺣﺪى اﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪ 10000‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ وﻛﺎن ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ درﺟﺎﲥﻢ ﰲ‬
‫اﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﳖﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺎدة اﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎت ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﰊ ‪ 62‬واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ‪ 10‬ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻼب اﻟﺬﻳﻦ درﺟﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﲔ ‪ 85 ، 70‬؟‬
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‫ب( اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻼب اﻟﺬﻳﻦ درﺟﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ أو ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪ 72‬؟‬
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‫ً‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﺎ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻫﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زاﺋﺮ ﻳﻘﺪم ﻗﺴﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﱰﻳﺎت ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 300‬درﳘﺎ ً أو أﻛﺜﺮ دﻓﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﻣﺖ إدارة ﻣﻬﺮﺟﺎن اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﺑﺪﰊ‬
‫واﺣﺪة ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن اﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ أن ﻳﺸﱰي ﲠﺎ اﻟﺰوار ﺧﻼل ﻣﺪة اﳌﻬﺮﺟﺎن ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪ 200‬درﻫﻢ واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪ 50‬درﻫﻢ ‪..‬أوﺟﺪي اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺰوار اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺤﺼﻠﻮن ﻋﲆ ﻫﺪﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
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‫‪35‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ أﻃﻮال ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1000‬ﺷﺨﺺ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﰊ ‪ 172‬ﺳﻢ‬
‫واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ‪ 5‬ﺳﻢ ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻋﺪد اﻷﺷﺨﺎص اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻃﻮل ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﺑﲔ ‪ 170‬ﺳﻢ ‪ 175 ،‬ﺳﻢ ؟‬
‫‪ (2‬اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﺷﺨﺎص اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻃﻮل ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ أو ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪ 168‬ﺳﻢ ؟‬
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‫‪36‬‬
‫ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ً‬
‫ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻵﻻت اﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ ‪ ،‬اﳌﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ اﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﺼﻼﺣﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﰊ ‪54‬‬
‫ً‬
‫ﺷﻬﺮا أو أﻗﻞ ‪...‬أوﺟﺪي‬ ‫ً‬
‫ﺷﻬﺮا واﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎري ‪ 8‬ﺷﻬﻮر وﻛﺎن اﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﻳﺴﺘﺒﺪل اﻵﻟﺔ اﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻌﻄﻞ إذا ﻣﴣ ﻋﲆ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ ‪30‬‬
‫‪ (1‬اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻶﻻت اﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺴﺘﺒﺪل ؟‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻋﺪد اﻵﻻت اﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﱰاوح ﻣﺪة ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ 4‬ﺳﻨﻮات ‪ 5 ،‬ﺳﻨﻮات ؟) ﻋﻠﲈ ﺑﺄن إﲨﺎﱄ اﻵﻻت‬
‫اﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ ‪( 1000‬‬
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‫‪37‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ( 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ r = - 0.45‬ﻓﺈن ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ‪.............‬ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪........‬‬
‫‪ ( 2‬إذا ﻛﺎن ‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ r = 0.85‬ﻓﺈن ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ‪.............‬ودرﺟﺘﻪ ‪........‬‬
‫‪ (3‬إذا ﻛﺎن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺎ ً ﺗﺎﻣﺎ ً ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻓﺈن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪...............................:‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻴﻞ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎً إذا وﻓﻘﻂ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط اﳋﻄﻲ ‪.....................................‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻴﻞ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺎ ً إذا وﻓﻘﻂ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط اﳋﻄﻲ ‪.....................................‬‬
‫‪ (6‬إذا ﻧﻘﺼﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ ﻓﺄن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﻜﻮن ‪.........................................:‬‬
‫‪ (7‬إذا زادت ﻗﻴﻤﺔ أﺣﺪ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻵﺧﺮ ﻓﺄن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﻜﻮن ‪.........................................:‬‬
‫‪ (8‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﺴﺎوي ﺻﻔﺮ ﻓﺈن اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﻜﻮن‪....................................................... :‬‬
‫‪9‬إذا وﻗﻌﺖ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻧﻘﺎط ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﻋﲆ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﻤﻲ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﰲ ﻫﺬه اﳊﺎﻟﺔ ‪............................:‬‬
‫‪ (10‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﲢﺖ اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪..............................................:‬‬
‫‪ (11‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﻓﻮق اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪.............................................:‬‬
‫‪ (12‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ x‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪة ﰲ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻪ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ، x‬واﻧﺤﺮاﻓﻪ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ‪ σ‬وﻛﺎن ‪ x = x‬ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ ‪z‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻫﺪة ‪ x‬ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪.......................... :‬‬
‫‪ (13‬ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﺴﺎر ‪ z = 0‬ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪............................:‬‬
‫‪ (14‬ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﲆ ﻳﻤﲔ ‪ z = 0‬ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪............................:‬‬
‫‪ (15‬ﰲ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻳﻜﻮن اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪ ...........:‬واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻳﺴﺎوي ‪.............‬‬
‫‪ (16‬اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﳌﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪.........................................:‬‬
‫‪ (17‬اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮاً ﺣﻮل ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪ (18‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻹﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪ y = 3x -2‬ﻓﺈن ‪ a‬ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪...............................:‬‬
‫‪ (19‬اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮ ) ﻣﺘﲈﺛﻞ ( ﺣﻮل اﳋﻂ اﻟﺮأﳼ اﳌﺎر ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ وﻳﻜﻮن ﻓﻴﻪ ‪:‬‬
‫اﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﳊﺴﺎﰊ = ‪....................... = .....................‬‬
‫‪ ( 20‬اﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﳌﻈﻠﻠﺔ ﰲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺠﺎور ﲤﺜﻞ اﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﲢﺖ اﳌﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﳌﻌﻴﺎري واﻟﻮاﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪......................:‬‬
‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬ ‫‪-1.5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

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‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻸﺯﻭﺍﺝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺣﺪﺍﺛﻲ ﻳﺴﻤﻲ ) ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ اﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪x , y‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ارﺳﻤﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ‪..‬وﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻧﻮع اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﲔ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ t‬واﻟﴪﻋﺔ ‪v‬‬

‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪t‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬

‫اﻟﴪﻋﺔ ‪v‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x ) ( yi − y‬‬

‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪σx × σy‬‬

‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﴘ ﺗﺎم‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻨﻌﺪم‬ ‫ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻃﺮدي ﺗﺎم‬

‫‪−1‬‬ ‫‪− 0.8‬‬ ‫‪− 0.5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

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‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪σ x = 2 . 9 , σ y = 3 , x = 10 , y = 8‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪62‬‬ ‫‪81‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 1 1 , σ y = 9 . 4 , x = 7 8 , y = 8 0 :‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x )( yi − y‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫أﺣﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ) ‪ ( r‬ﺑﲔ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪ x‬واﻹﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺸﻬﺮي ‪y‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 1.9 , σ y = 1.6 , x = 5.9 , y = 5 :‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪∑ (x‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫) ‪− x )( yi − y‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﲈ ً ﺑﺄن ‪σ x = 7 . 3 , σ y = 3 . 5 , x = 59 . 6 , y = 34 :‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (1‬ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬؟‬

‫‪ (2‬ﺧﻄﺄ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ x = 60‬وﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ = ‪45‬‬

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‫‪ x , y‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑان ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﲈ ‪ 0.8‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪σ y = 3 , σ x = 2 .4 , y = 18 , x = 13‬‬

‫‪ (2‬ﺧﻄﺄ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ x = 30‬وﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ = ‪33‬‬

‫‪ (1‬ﻓﺄوﺟﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻧﺤﺪار ‪ y‬ﻋﲆ ‪ x‬؟‬

‫‪ (2‬ﺧﻄﺄ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ x = 7‬وﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ y‬اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ = ‪82‬‬

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‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫‪ (4‬ﺗﻨﺒﺊ ﺑﻌﺪد اﻷﺧﻄﺎء ‪ y‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ x = 30‬؟‬

‫‪ (5‬اﻋﻤﲇ ﺟﺪوﻻ ً ﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ y‬اﳌﻌﻄﺎة ؟‬

‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣـﺮﻳـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠـ ـ ـ ـ ـ ــﻲ‬

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‫‪ 1948‬م إﱃ ﻋﺎم ‪ 1992‬م ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ t = 0‬ﲤﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﺎم ‪ 1948‬م‬

‫‪ ( b‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺧﻂ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺬي رﺳﻤﺘﻴﻪ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻮز‬

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‫ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﳌﻌﻴﺎرﻳﺔ )‪ (z‬ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻫﺪة ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

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‫اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻌﺎن ﳍﲈ ‪ ....................‬ﻧﻔﺴﻪ وﳐﺘﻠﻔﺎن ﰲ ‪..............................‬‬