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L9 - RELIABILITY ENGINEERING

•FAILURE

•CAUSES OF FAILURE

•FAILURE RATE - BATH TUB MODEL

•RELIABILITY THEORY

•RELIABILITY EVALUATION TECHNIQUES

•RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY (RAM)

•MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF)

•RELIABILITY MANAGEMENT
RELIABILITY

RELIABILITY IS THE ABILITY TO CONTINUE TO BE FIT


FOR THE PURPOSE OR FUNCTION

NO PRODUCTS ARE IMMORTAL

SOME METHODS OF ATTEMPTING TO ASSURE


RELIABILITY ARE :-

• USE OF PROVEN DESIGNS

• SIMPLEST POSSIBLE DESIGNS - AVOID


COMPLEXITY

• USE COMPONENTS WITH KNOWN HIGH


PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL

• REDUNDANCY (IN CRITICAL AREAS)

• SPECIFY PROVEN INSTALLATION / OPERATION /


MAINTENANCE METHODS
FAILURE TYPES

TOTAL FAILURE - Complete lack of ability of produce to


perform required function

PARTIAL FAILURE - Item does not work as well as expected


but continues to perform

GRADUAL FAILURE - Takes place progressively over a period


of time

SUDDEN FAILURE - Occurs very quickly

CAUSES OF FAILURE

MAIN TYPES –

• WEAKNESS - Usually introduced by poor or


wrong Design, Materials, Processes or Operation

• MISUSE - Represents the application of stress


which are outside the usual capability of the
component or system
REASONS GIVEN FOR FAILURE OF EQUIPMENT

• BAD LUCK?

• FINANCIAL PRESSURES
- CUTTING CORNERS TO SAVE MONEY
- TIME PRESSURES
- FAILURE TO INVEST IN ADEQUATE
RESOURCES
- FAILURE TO INVEST IN TRAINING

• POTENTIAL OF FAILURE NOT RECOGNISED AT


DESIGN STAGE

• FAILURE TO SPECIFIFY SYSTEM PROPERLY

• LACK OF QA / QC IN DESIGN AND


MANUFACTURE

• LATE CHANGES IN DESIGN

• EXCEEDING DESIGN CRITERIA DURING


INSTALLATION

• CHANGES IN OPERATING PRACTICE

• CHANGES IN THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

• FAILURE TO INSPECT / MONITOR FOR


DETERIORATION
THE BATH TUB CURVE
BATH-TUB CURVE

‘INFANT’ OR EARLY FAILURE PHASE

AVOIDED BY :-
• GOOD MANUFACTURING QC
• FACTORY TESTING
• WELL DEFINED INSTALLATION PROCEDUTES

‘ADULT’ OR USEFUL LIFE PHASE

PERIOD OF NORMAL USEFUL LIFE. END OF THIS PERIOD IS


DETECTED BY :-
• CONDITION MONITORING TECHNIQUES
• MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURES (HISTORIC
INFORMATION)
• EXPERIENCE

‘WEAR OUT’ PHASE

THE ONSET OF FAILURES DUE TO NORMAL PROCESSES OF


FATIGUE, WEAR, CORROSION ETC.
RELIABILITY THEORY

Reliability theory is the foundation of reliability engineering. For


engineering purposes, reliability is defined as:

The probability that a device will perform its intended function during
a specified period of time under stated conditions.
Mathematically, this may be expressed as,

where

is the failure probability density function and t is the length of


the period (which is assumed to start from time zero).
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING
Reliability engineering is concerned with four key elements of this
definition:

•First, reliability is a probability. This means that failure is regarded as a


random phenomenon: it is a recurring event, and we do not express any
information on individual failures, the causes of failures, or relationships
between failures, except that the likelihood for failures to occur varies
over time according to the given probability function. Reliability
engineering is concerned with meeting the specified probability of
success, at a specified statistical confidence level.

•Second, reliability is predicated on "intended function:" Generally, this is


taken to mean operation without failure. However, even if no individual
part of the system fails, but the system as a whole does not do what was
intended, then it is still charged against the system reliability. The system
requirements specification is the criterion against which reliability is
measured.
• Third, reliability applies to a specified period of time. In practical terms,
this means that a system has a specified chance that it will operate
without failure before time t. Reliability engineering ensures that
components and materials will meet the requirements during the
specified time. Units other than time may sometimes be used. The
automotive industry might specify reliability in terms of miles, the
military might specify reliability of a gun for a certain number of rounds
fired. A piece of mechanical equipment may have a reliability rating
value in terms of cycles of use.

• Fourth, reliability is restricted to operation under stated conditions. This


constraint is necessary because it is impossible to design a system for
unlimited conditions. A Mars Rover will have different specified
conditions than the family car. The operating environment must be
addressed during design and testing.
RELIABILITY BLOCK DIAGRAMMES

Series Configuration

Parallel Configuration

Figure 3: Combination of Series and Parallel Configurations

Combination of Series and Parallel Configurations


RISK AND FAILURE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

INTUITIVE - BRAINSTORMING

INDUCTIVE - FAILURE MODES & EFFECTS


CRITICALITY ANALYSIS
(FMECA)

- HAZARDS & OPERABILITY


STUDIES (HAZOP)

- EVENT TREE ANALYSIS

- MAN-MACHINE SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS

DEDUCTIVE - FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

- ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION &


ANALYSIS

TOOLS FOR THE QUANTIFICATION OF RISK AND


RELIABILITY

• RELIABILITY NETWORKS & BLOCK


DIAGRAMMES
• FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
• EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
• STRESS STRENGTH INTERFERENCE
TECHNIQUES
FMEA APPROACH
EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
An event tree analysis (ETA) is a visual representation of all the events
which can occur in a system. As the number of events increases, the
picture fans out like the branches of a tree.

Event trees can be used to analyze systems in which all components are
continuously operating, or for systems in which some or all of the
components are in standby mode - those that involve sequential operation
logic and switching. The starting point (referred to as the initiating event)
disrupts normal system operation. The event tree displays the sequences
of events involving success and/or failure of the system components.

The goal of an event tree is to determine the probability of an event based


on the outcomes of each event in the chronological sequence of events
leading up to it. By analyzing all possible outcomes using event tree
analysis, you can determine the percentage of outcomes which lead to the
desired result.
EVENT TREES
This event tree was constructed to analyze the possible outcomes of a
system fire. The system has 2 components designed to handle this event:
a sprinkler system and an automated call to the fire department. If the fire
department is not notified, the fire will be mostly contained by the sprinkler
system. If the sprinkler system fails as well, the system will be destroyed.

The goal of an event tree is to determine the probability of an event based


on the outcomes of each event in the chronological sequence of events
leading up to it. By analyzing all possible outcomes, you can determine the
percentage of outcomes which lead to the desired result.
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

A fault tree analysis (FTA) is a deductive, top-down method of analyzing system


design and performance. It involves specifying a top event to analyze (such as a
fire), followed by identifying all of the associated elements in the system that could
cause that top event to occur.

Fault trees provide a convenient symbolic representation of the combination of


events resulting in the occurrence of the top event. Events and gates in fault tree
analysis are represented by symbols.

Fault tree analyses are generally performed graphically using a logical structure of
AND and OR gates. Sometimes certain elements, or basic events, may need to
occur together in order for that top event to occur. In this case, these events would
be arranged under an AND gate, meaning that all of the basic events would need
to occur to trigger the top event. If the basic events alone would trigger the top
event, then they would be grouped under an OR gate. The entire system as well as
human interactions would be analyzed when performing a fault tree analysis.
FAULT TREES
FAULT TREE FOR MAJOR LEAK
FROM SUBSEA X’MAS TREE
FAULT TREE FOR MAJOR LEAK FROM SUBSEA X’MAS TREE
Case Studies of Uncertainty Analysis in Reliability and Risk Assessment;
Dr. Michael V. Frank; Safety Factor Associates, Inc

Event Trees;
Pat L. Clemens; Jacobs Sverdrup, Inc.

Fault Tree Analysis;


Dr. John Andrews; Loughborough University

Fault Tree Analysis;


Pat L. Clemens; Jacobs Sverdrup, Inc.

Fault Tree Analysis;


Clif Ericson; AOT

Fault Tree Analysis of Computer-Based Systems;


Dr. Joanne Bechta Dugan; University of Virginia

Getting the Most From Mission Success Fault Tree Analysis ;


Allen Long; Rockwell Collins / Government Systems

Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment;


Michael V. Frank; Safety Factors Associates

Probabilistic Risk Assessment;


Dr. Todd Paulos; Todd Paulos, Inc.

Use and Abuse of Fault Tree Analysis;


Allen Long; Rockwell Collins / Government Systems
MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE
In general, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) is the mean value of
the lengths of time between consecutive failures, under stated
conditions, for a stated period in the life of a functional unit. A more
simplified MTBF definition for Reliability Predictions can be stated as
the average time (usually expressed in hours) that a component works
without failure.

MTBF for an existing product can be found by studying field failure data.
For a new product however, or if significant changes are made to the
design, it may be required to estimate or calculate MTBF before any field
data is available. In some cases failure rates for previous products can be
used if changes to a design are unlikely to affect reliability. In the case of a
new or significantly changed design, an accepted technique is to estimate
reliability using a recognized model.
RELIABILITY - BATH TUB CURVE
What is RAM Analysis?

RAM analysis is a numerical analysis technique that quantifies the


reliability, availability and maintainability of a complex system, for
example, an oil or gas production or process facility.

Some definitions may be helpful:-

Reliability can be defined as the probability that an item will


satisfactorily perform its intended function for a specified time.

Maintainability can be defined as the probability that an item will be


retained in or restored to a specified condition within a given
period of time when maintenance is performed in accordance with
prescribed procedures and resources.

Availability expresses both reliability and maintainability in a single


measure. Most studies consider steady state availability. This can
be defined as the proportion of deployed time that an item is
available for use, when the deployed time considered is very large.
RELIABILITY INDEX - Test for Suppliers