the future of work

A REPORT COMMISSIONED BY THE

forward thinking inc.
how and where will we
work in 2030?

This study was commissioned by the DTI. It was supported by sponsorship from
ABN AMRO, forward thinking inc. and Herman Miller.
the future of work scenarios

In January 2006 the DTI published the findings of its Foresight programme on Intelligent Infrastructure
Systems. The project examined the challenges and opportunities for the UK in bringing “intelligence”
to the physical networks that deliver services such as transport, telecommunications, water and energy.
The output was presented in four future scenarios of UK society.

The Workplace Intelligence Unit has extended the IIS Foresight project, taking the scenarios and
exploring how and where we might work within them. What are the implications for business today, and
how might we best prepare for these potential eventualities?

This document outlines our 3 Future of Work Scenarios; Perpetual Motion, Urban Colonies and Good
Intentions. The fourth Foresight scenario, entitled Tribal Trading, presents the collapse of the UK’s
economic structure in its current form and thus was deemed too extreme to yield practical conclusions.

The scenarios are focussed on the year 2030. They are illustrated through the perspective of a
fictional company called Cogito, a market-leading corporation operating in a knowledge intensive service
industry. Whilst intended as strategic thinking tools, rather than predictions of a certain future, they pose
interesting challenges for how businesses operate today and plan for tomorrow.

By analysing consistencies across the 3 scenarios, 6 key lessons for “future proofing” business
strategy have emerged.
preparing for the future
leveraging the psychological drivers
of productivity
There are 10 psychological factors which drive
individual, and therefore workforce, productivity.
Traditionally companies have focussed largely on
recognition and its associated rewards to
motivate employees. However, today and even
more so in the future, companies will need to
understand and influence the more subtle drivers
of productivity as well. As the scenarios illustrate,
financial reward is not necessarily the most
successful way to motivate a workforce.
the 10 psychological drivers of workforce productivity
meaning a clear and inspiring vision with which people feel aligned
values a common set of values and behaviours consistently displayed
optimism a positive attitude and trust in the leadership team to deliver
collaboration effective teamwork and stimulation through interaction
confidence a focus on developing self belief by playing to strengths rather
than only addressing weaknesses
individualism respect for the unique skills and contribution of everyone
autonomy individuals given the responsibility to make decisions
originality recognition of the value of originality and a culture of acceptance
of good new ideas
goals clear and specific goals and visible celebration of achievement
recognition being recognised and valued for good work and receiving a fair
and transparent reward for achievement of goals
meaning matters
Meaning is one of the key psychological drivers
of productivity. To be successful companies must
create a clear and inspiring vision to which their
workforce is aligned. Employees will respond to
varying visions, depending upon the company,
industry and social landscape, but a successful
organisation will always communicate its
meaning with clarity and impact. In all 3
scenarios Cogito’s structure, culture, brand and
workplace are designed in line with the company’s
vision, even though the underlying meaning
behind each model is very different.
a strong sustainability strategy is
not a luxury
In all scenarios companies are forced to act on
sustainability – be it through necessary
investment in technological solutions,
government regulation, or having to meet the
moral requirements of clients and employees.
However, altering the environmental footprint of a
company is a long-term task – for example, it may
take a decade to radically redesign a property
portfolio. The businesses who lead the way at
the start of the 21st century will be best prepared
to meet any of these demands.
putting a value on knowledge work work is intrinsically social
Time spent is no longer an acceptable measure The intrinsically social nature of work should not
of productivity. Knowledge workers should be be underestimated. Despite advances in remote
evaluated on output rather than input, and that communications and automation of particular
means businesses must evolve more sophisticated processes, personal interaction will remain a key
productivity measuring tools for the future. element of why and how we work. Even under
While many firms have eradicated “face-time” the Perpetual Motion scenario workers enjoy the
over the past few years, very few roles (pure sales bull-ring energy of the workplace and the implicit
functions excepted) have an explicit bond between members of the intellectual elite.
output-orientated productivity measurement. The implications for future-proofing are clear.
Businesses will need to design productivity Communication skills will become ever more
measurement tools moulded around the specific important. In the future, an advanced
results they require. While the methodologies communications test will become a prerequisite
may not yet be fully developed, companies should for job applicants (in the way aptitude tests are
begin to shift their internal culture to a state often used today). Companies should already be
where such tools will be accepted positively when focussing on developing the optimal
they are introduced. communications culture for their competitive
position.
the advent of the strategic workplace
The 20th century mindset of the workplace as an
operational cost to be minimised will finally be
eradicated. In the future all firms will be forced to
utilise their property assets strategically to
maximise competitiveness. As competition to
attract the best employees becomes fiercer
the workplace will become a key differentiator.
Every firm will use it to communicate meaning to
employees, help mould internal culture, and thus
maximise productivity. The workplace will also be
designed as a crucial tool in the external brand
communications mix. Again, moulding corporate
culture and influencing external perceptions is a
long-term undertaking. If carried out quickly and
reactively such strategies can lose credibility.
The answer is to lead the field now.
 perpetual motion
Please note that most of the
photographs illustrated in this
brochure are library images,
used for illustrative purposes
only. They do not form part of
the fti image library and
cannot be used without
payment to the image owner .
social context
Rightly or wrongly, society feels it has been relieved of the
burden of environmental responsibility. Due to large-scale
private and public investment, environmental and energy
limitations have been solved, or at least postponed, by rapid
advancements in science and technology. As a result, strong
economic growth and globalisation have continued apace,
stimulating rampant consumerism. Technology is
all-pervasive, allowing instant communication and
transactions, but also facilitating constant monitoring of our
behaviour by public and private institutions – a small price to
pay, most believe, for an advanced society with countless
opportunities. The darker side to this “always-on” economy is
the growing wealth distribution gap. While knowledge workers
commute in and out of city hubs to complete their highly paid
roles, a secondary class inhabit deprived urban areas and fulfil
the remaining manual jobs that have not been automated.
the business
Large international corporations, such as Cogito, dominate the
competitive landscape. With high levels of outsourcing, Cogito
is served by a web of small service providers, many of which
operate as “virtual cooperatives” without any fixed commercial
property. The key to Cogito’s success has been fighting to
attract the most productive knowledge workers on the
market, and securing first access to leading technology in order
to monitor and stimulate them. Biologically interfaced
technology now monitors individuals’ productivity levels
throughout the day, adjusting their environment accordingly and
instructing them when they need to eat, drink or take a stint in
the virtual sleep room to recover full productivity. Workers’ final
output is also measured using tightly defined and accurate
metrics, and is the final indicator of personal performance.
The CEO cannot comprehend how the firm was successfully
managed in the 2000’s without the means to accurately
monitor and artificially promote worker’s productivity. Today
it’s vital to driving growth, through creating fierce competition
amongst workers and a ruthless, yet transparent, meritocracy.
A common “patchwork quilt” organisational structure is in place
at Cogito - workers spend 90% of their time working alone,
intensely, on one task, before collaborating briefly with the rest
of their team to share ideas (often via remote technology to
save time, despite team members being present in the same
building). Facilitated by advanced communication technology
and organisation tools, managers oversee this collaborative
element, managing up to a dozen teams at a time.
perpetual motion
This structure allows Cogito to cut out unnecessary
personal interaction and maximise the proportion of individual
work, the output of which can be most accurately measured.
HR specialists are highly valued. Due to levels of burn-out and
headhunting, turnover is high and incentives to retain the best
workers must be innovative. The best employees view
companies as service providers, simply providing the means for
them to carry out their career - they will move positions without
hesitation if a better offer arises. Financial incentives remain
key but it is often the exclusive and unattainable status
symbols that hold the most allure – the top-of-the range
automated car with a 2 year waiting list or membership at the
city’s finest sports clubs.
the workers
Knowledge workers at Cogito generally work over 80 hours a
week. Strictly, this is through personal choice; the work is
stimulating and enjoyable and the link between personal
success (or failure) and compensation is clear. Perhaps more
importantly, working for a top 5 firm earns the respect of your
peers. Employees believe that being at the top of your game
requires commitment, but the rewards are worthwhile.
However, work is highly stressful and burn-outs are
commonplace. Long hours are not the biggest problem.
It’s the constant monitoring of performance, the one-on-one
competition with colleagues and the fear of being exposed as
underachieving which create the intense pressure. A recent
survey found that 90% of Cogito workers were taking
performance enhancing drugs. Cogito is monitoring the
correlation between drug use and productivity and to date the
impact appears to be wholly positive. As a result the company
is about to trial free access to such drugs for all employees.
Most Cogito workers have very few face-to-face
meetings, communications technology is so good they are
viewed as a waste of precious time. High risk, high value
transactions, such as sales closures and M&A negotiations
are still conducted in person though, no matter where they are
located in the world. As high-speed trains, planes and cars are
comfortably equipped with all necessary office tools the loss of
productive time can be minimised.
location of work for an average city-based
UK knowledge worker (2030)
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Cogitospace
board meeting – key targets (2030)
clients’ workplace

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QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE REVIEW
perpetual motion
the workplace

When Cogito leased its current headquarters it wanted a displayed across the workspace. Workers are conscious of
building with impact that communicated the power and status being both part of a team and in competition with everyone
of its brand. Walking through the doors employees and clients around them.
are in no doubt that they are operating amongst an intellectual
elite, a well-oiled global machine. Similarly to the residential Unlike the workspace, leisure facilities are luxurious.
gated communities where they live in the countryside, In choosing to work for Cogito employees expect a certain
workers appreciate the security of the Cogito complex. lifestyle, which the workplace helps create. A top-class
When manual workers rioted through London in protest at the restaurant, state-of-the-art gym and luxury spa are all located
abolition of the minimum wage, Cogito employees were advised on site. Most employees rarely use them, but their presence
to remain in the building and did not even notice the matters. The most popular facilities are those which offer
disturbance outside. intense stimulation and competition, such as virtual gaming,
adrenalin sports and squash. It seems that even after a
The workplace is essentially divided into 2 areas; work and 14 hour day Cogito employees do not want to, or cannot,
leisure. The work environment is designed for functionality, to switch off - a fact of which they are proud.
maximise productive behaviour. Employees have cellular
offices, each with light, air quality and noise levels regulated for
their optimal productive environment. Self-learning, biologically
interfaced technology firstly responds to rectify dips in worker
productivity, and then learns to predict and respond to prevent
them. Workstations are designed for specialist activity, but all
systems must be flexible given the high level of staff turnover.
Despite the cellular floor plan there is a sense of intense energy,
individual workspaces are not luxuriously spacious and are
configured in a way that workers are constantly in one another’s
view. A “bull ring” atmosphere prevails, individual employee
and corporate results (both positive and negative) are clearly
urban colonies
social context
At the start of the 21st century growing evidence of the
environmental impact of our modern lifestyle prompted a
reaction by both government and society. The general public
recognised the need for action and accepted the government’s
new taxation system under which consumption, rather than
salary or spending, is taxed. Nationwide road pricing was also
introduced in 2015.
The urban renaissance which was cautiously predicted in the
2000’s has arrived. Economic activity is centred in cities, and
high-density urban living has become the norm. Mixed-use,
mixed-income developments prevail, each with a strong sense
of community. Every urban hub has its own distinct culture,
with cities essentially competing as life-style brands to attract
the best talent and businesses. While green transport and
communication technology is advanced, it does not operate on
a national infrastructure.
the business
From 2010 onwards the public became increasingly sceptical
of big business – graduate recruits wanted to join niche firms
and consumers boycotted “irresponsible” products. Having
had a strong corporate responsibility portfolio for a decade,
Cogito did not suffer has badly as some competitors. However,
change was required to maintain the competitive advantage.
Cogito now has a structure and workplace moulded around the
moral, social and operational preferences of its people.
To gain the benefits of a smaller firm Cogito is divided into 10
sub brands. Located in different cities each operates as an
independent entity. This allows products and staff to be
sourced locally (minimising costly long-distance travel) and
provides the small-firm community feel that talented
knowledge workers are seeking. The challenge for each of
these sub-units is to differentiate themselves to employees
and clients through their vision, values and culture. The board
members joke about the old days when half a page in the
annual report devoted to values was sufficient to satisfy
recruits and investors.
Cogito has a flat organisational structure, with the workforce
organised into flexible project teams. An individual may typically
be part of 4 teams simultaneously, taking on a different role in
each, both in terms of responsibility and function - workers are
part of smaller communities within the community.
urban colonies
Cogito believe that workers’ productivity is fundamentally linked
to a positive state of mind – happy workers are productive
workers. (Cogito pioneered the “Workforce Happiness Index”
as a tool for both measuring productivity and attracting recruits,
and it is now commonplace in most businesses). Employees
need variety and stimulation to be creative and will work
hardest when they feel commitment to a common goal.
Cogito regularly measures social capital levels amongst its
workforce to monitor the strength of the community.
At Cogito performance reviews and recruitment processes are
subjective. Emotional and intuitive competencies are highly
valued because they contribute to building social capital.
Workers are assessed on the quality of their output as well as
being rewarded for commitment and operating by the company
values. Cogito holds an annual survey on the preferred bonus
and incentive schemes that workers would value – financial
bonuses have not featured highly for years, but additional
holiday entitlement, improved health-care options, team social
events and personal skills training are constantly requested.
the workers
Cogito employees have fairly irregular working patterns as no
one monitors when and where they work, only the quality of the
output. At peak times a week can exceed 60 hours but there
are rarely complaints – employees take pride in their work and
would rather do a thorough job than let their team down.
Plus, next week they might work 30 hours and no one will mind.
Increasingly people believe that while purchased goods can be
easily imitated, true personal originality comes from
developing a unique set of skills and traits. Cogito succeeds
largely because it offers employees an opportunity to further
themselves. The company provides a variety of experiences
with a diverse group of people, both within and beyond the
realm of work – personal coaching is provided and sabbaticals
are encouraged. Practically, this structure means employees
are responsible for their own time and productivity. Assisted by
organisational technological tools they must become experts
in personal management or the quality of their output will
visibly suffer.
Internal meetings are usually carried out face-to-face, it is
generally held that there is no substitute for personal
interaction. Most commercial relationships are formed with
businesses within the same city so it is easy to walk, cycle or
use public transport to visit them.
location of work for an average city-based
workplace
UK knowledge worker (2030)
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clients’ workplace
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urban colonies
the workplace

Cogito spent 5 years designing and building their own
offices across 10 locations. Each had to be designed around
the needs and personality of each sub-unit, as well as that of
the local community. The board realised that any building
incongruous with the surrounding neighbourhood would
damage their reputation.
Employees can work when and where they want to, so
theoretically could remain at home every day and only
participate in meetings remotely. However, Cogito pride
themselves on how regularly the workplace is used. It is an
inspiring, creative place to be, somewhere workers can have
stimulating interaction with like-minded people.

The Cogito workplace is a selection of areas, from garden to

conventional meeting room, with no clear delineation between
those for “work” and those for “leisure”. The barrier between
“inside” and “outside” is also blurred – workers often hold
meetings in the garden beside school children having lunch and
local community groups regularly book spare meeting rooms.

The workspaces are designed to inspire both employees and

clients, to facilitate communication and creativity, and foster a
sense of community. Needless to say the sustainability
credentials are best-in-class. Employees view the workplace
as a learning resource centre, somewhere they come to
exchange and form ideas. Cogito recognises that learning very
often stems from casual interaction and so instructed their
architect to map human traffic flows and design to facilitate
such interactions.
good intentions
social context
Following decades of delay governments were finally forced into
action to restrict carbon emissions. A carbon credit scheme
was imposed, providing each individual with a limited
entitlement to use on travel. Now people’s lifestyle choices are
often determined by their access to credits. The taxation
system has also been altered to be based on consumption
rather than salary or spending. Companies must account for all
energy and resource consumption by their employees on site,
including commuting, and a proportion of their consumption
when working from home. Citizens are generally resentful of the
government’s strong handed approach and the restrictions it
imposes on their preferences, but slowly people are learning to
adapt their behaviour accordingly.
the business
Resource taxation has proved a huge challenge for large
organisations such as Cogito. Luckily a comprehensive
sustainability strategy had been put in place in 2005 so Cogito
was in a better position than many when restrictions were applied.
In fact they actually benefited from some competitors going
bankrupt when their huge carbon liabilities were disclosed.
Today a strong corporate responsibility profile and strategy is
not just good business but essential to remaining profitable.
In most companies the Operations Director is as important as
the CFO in directing the company.
Traditionally Cogito had been structured in 3 large regional
hubs, with staff commuting up to 90 minutes each day. Travel
restrictions quickly made this unfeasible and the organisation
was dramatically restructured. 30 offices now operate across
the UK with no employee living more than 10 miles from their
primary site. Cogito’s challenge is to maintain productivity
across these dispersed sites, but investing in leading edge
communications technology has allowed virtual teams to
operate efficiently.
Cogito believe workers are most productive when they are
motivated by the vision of their company and when given the
freedom to use their individual skills. However, the economic
reality (now more than ever) is that employees are a potential
financial liability if not managed correctly – the challenge is to
inspire and liberate workers while restricting their resource use.
good intentions

Cogito uses its scale to take on the individual workers’ burdens world of pessimism, a group of like-minded people who are
and make them a common goal for the company. Productivity ahead of the tide rather than trying to resist it. True, Cogito
is very much the individual’s responsibility but resource use is employees do work longer than their counterparts elsewhere,
a collective one. Cogito knows that it requires twice as much but that’s because they are committed to the firm rather than
effort and cost to promote efficient resource use through resentful of it. While other workforces complain about intrusive
coercion rather than personal obligation to the community. technology monitoring their resource consumption in the
Workers pool carbon credits to fund company transport workplace and at home, Cogito employees recognise, and
schemes, adapt their working locations in the office to maximise accept, the need for such tools.
efficiency, and constantly seek new process re-engineering
improvements. In a climate of restricted personal preferences,
reduced face-to-face interaction, and constant “penny
pinching”, Cogito has succeeded by creating a genuine and
passionate commitment to reducing its environmental impact.
Today, the unveiling of a new operational improvement
programme is greeted with the scale of enthusiasm which only
used to accompany product launches in the past.

the workers

In every pub and café people are moaning about the price of
road travel, fretting about not having enough carbon credits
to get to work next week and reminiscing about the foreign
holidays they used to enjoy. Cogito employees feel somewhat
relieved about their situation. Working at Cogito has obvious
perks (such as the company Transit system, access to
personal resource councillors, being able to socialise in an
office rather than home-work) but the benefits are greater
than that. Cogito feels like a community of optimists in a
location of work for an average city-based
UK knowledge worker (2030)

workplace
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workplace
location of work for an average COGITO public space
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UK knowledge worker (2030) clients’ workplace
public space
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clients’ workplace COMPETITOR COMPARISON
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workplace
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good intentions
the workplace
In 2015 Cogito had 3 large regional offices coming to the end of
long-term leases and after decentralising was left with massive
excess capacity on these sites. With home working becoming
more popular, indeed mandatory in many companies,
occupancy of commercial property in the city was plummeting
and commercial rents fell to their lowest for 20 years. Rather
than terminating its leases, as many companies chose to,
Cogito negotiated heavily reduced rents and went about
redesigning its workplaces.
Cogito set out to make the workplace a sanctuary from the
burdens of the outside world; the aim to inspire workers,
encourage interaction and support collaboration.
The workplace is clearly designed and branded in line with
the vision and values of the company.
Cogito’s 3 large offices have now been expanded into
company campuses. Some key employees, and those who
have relocated, live on site. Others book the free campus
hotel facilities when they work too late to use the Cogito
Transit or are on a rare visit from another office. There are cost
benefits to these mixed-use developments but it also helps
build a strong corporate culture and sense of community.
Workers’ ID cards automatically register their presence on site,
allowing intelligent systems to calculate the economical level of
resources required to support the business throughout the day
and adjust lighting, ventilation and temperature to an
optimal level. If use of a particular resource is running too
high the workforce is informed – the incremental effect of
each worker altering their behaviour slightly is usually enough
to bring levels down to the correct point again without any
harsher reaction. In contrast, a key competitor, Quondam, has
refused to invest in such technology and has suffered a series
of black-outs and electricity cuts without prior warning. Some
other companies have been forced to resort to a 3 day week to
reduce consumption.
The work areas are high density to minimise resource use.
As well as being low cost this layout stimulates collaboration
and creates energy. Leisure facilities are slightly more spacious
but are used flexibly and only at particular times. For example,
Cogito workplaces have high quality restaurants but food is only
served at two sittings and workers are asked to pre-book.
Using innovative flexible design, this space often doubles as
a cinema or sports facility at night on the mixed-use campus
sites. It is testament to the success of Cogito’s vision that
employees regularly stay on-site after work to use the facilities
with friends – who just happen to be colleagues as well.
preparing for the future
leveraging the psychological drivers of productivity

understand and influence the full range of psychological drivers that impact workforce productivity

meaning matters

create a clear and inspiring vision to which your workforce is aligned

a strong sustainability strategy is not a luxury

businesses who lead the way today will be best equipped to meet the moral expectations and regulatory
requirements of the future

putting a value on knowledge work

measure and evaluate the output, rather than input, of your knowledge workers

the advent of the strategic workplace

utilise the workplace as a strategic asset in attracting talent, creating a corporate culture and moulding
external perceptions

work is intrinsically social

develop a communications culture which contributes to the strategic objectives of the organisation
productivity drivers
productivity drivers

perpetual motion urban colonies good intentions

1 - meaning 1 1 1

2 - values 10
2
10
2
10
2

3 - optimism

4 - collaboration 3 3 9 3
9 9
5 - confidence

6 - individualism

7 - autonomy 8 4 8 4 8 4

8 - originality

9 - goals 7 5 7 5 7 5

10 - recognition 6 6 6

workforce productivity driven primarily by…

goals and rewards collaboration and society and the

personal fulfilment environment
scenario
scenario summary
summary
company strategy competitive challenges workforce employee bonus /
productivity drivers incentive schemes

perpetual
motion • led by Performance • balancing the trade-off • meaning • financial bonuses
Management and
Technology teams
between productivity and
• goals • status symbols e.g. car,
stress levels
• recognition foreign holiday
• succession planning for
burn-out and churn
• securing access to leading
technology

urban
colonies •
• led by People and differentiating the • meaning • additional holiday
Vision teams corporate vision & values • values
• team social events
• creating a coherent culture • autonomy
• free training (for any
throughout decentralised, • collaboration
personal skill)
independent hubs
• additions on well-being
package

good
intentions • inspiring workforce
• led by Operations
while closely monitoring • meaning • access to on site hotel
teams
behaviour • values • additional carbon credits
• optimism • financial reward
• continual improvement
• originality
of operations and
resource use
employee performance average commuting approach to role of the workplace
measurement time and mode workplace design

• contribution to • 30 miles / 20 minutes • designed to affect • optimal environment

profitability • automated car employee behaviour for productivity
• representation of company
status, values and vision
• element of the lifestyle
package

• optimal environment for

employee happiness
• contribution to • 3 miles / 25 minutes • designed around
• facilitate communication,
new ideas • walk or cycle employee behaviour creativity and the growth of
• contribution to social capital
social capital • a learning resource centre
• maximise resource efficiency
• representation of vision
and values

• optimal environment for

• reduction of • 10 miles / 35 minutes • designed around resource use (via economies
resource use • public transport or environmental of scale)
• contribution to company transit constraints • inspire and motivate workers
profitability • representation of vision
and values
• build community
 forward thinking inc. would like to
thank the following people for their contribution

Alister Wilson, Waverley Consultants

Andrew Curry, The Henley Centre
Bill Sharpe, The Appliance Studio
Glenn Lyons, Centre for Transport & Society
Will Stewart, Innos
Michael Moynagh, The Tomorrow Project
Phil Goodwin, Centre for Transport & Society
Victor Keegan, The Guardian
Bruce Lloyd, London South Bank University
Martin Cook, BDP
Roger Metellerkamp, IBM
Steve Hughes, Herman Miller

for further information contact

Ann Brewin on:
020 8939 2330
ann.b@forwardthinkinginc.com

www.forwardthinkinginc.com