For more than a decade, Kenya’s political field has been his for the playing and P

rime Minister Raila Odinga has played it like a maestro.

In the process, he has aroused great mania and phobia in equal measure amongst h
is supporters and opponents respectively.
And now his opponents have proclaimed endgame for the man they also acknowledge,
albeit grudgingly, as a lion of political mass movements in the country.
But his supporters caution that a rained-on lion should not be mistaken for a ca
t.
It is the continuing story of one of the most enigmatic men in Kenya’s politics. T
he Prime Minister has been the force behind the events that have shaped Kenya’s po
litical landscape over the past decade.
His famous walkout from Kanu in the run-up to the 2002 General Election denied f
ormer President Moi’s handpicked successor Uhuru Kenyatta the presidency and gifte
d it to Mr Mwai Kibaki.
Two years later, he led a rebellion within the ruling Narc party in rejecting th
e proposed constitution in 2005, handing the government side, which supported th
e new law, a resounding defeat.
Following his sacking from the Cabinet as a result of the fallout, he launched a
massive campaign against President Kibaki, and his supporters believe that it w
as only fraud in the 2007 General Election that denied him the top seat.
Well, the premiership was just supposed to be a holding ground as he awaited nex
t year’s General Election in which everyone thought he would be the front runner f
or the presidency.
But Mr Odinga today finds himself in an unfamiliar position. He is in the eye of
an unusual opposition storm fronted by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and
suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto that seems to have caught him
flatfooted.
Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, one of his fiercest critics, said it is a case of t
he hunter turning the hunted.
“The same tactics he used to win power are the same we are employing to cut him do
wn. The politics of this country used to revolve around him, but not anymore,” Mr
Kutuny said.
For a man who has forged his political career by taking the fight to his opponen
ts, it must be surprising to be on the receiving end of political machinations.
Mr Odinga’s ally turned fierce opponent William Ruto has even stated rather boldly
that “I don’t know who will be Kenya’s next President, but I know who will not be”.
Although the latest opinion polls indicate that he remains favourite for the pre
sidency next year, his ratings have been falling amidst the onslaught against hi
m by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.
Yet, for a man fabled as having an answer to every challenge thrown at him, it i
s surprising that Mr Odinga has not responded to the war being waged against him
with an aggressive counter strategy as he has done in the past.
Consequently, some of his opponents believe that the political intricacies this
time round are too complex and have left him without a plan.
Down, not out
But his foot soldiers say their general has nothing to fear. Rarieda MP Nicholas
Gumbo says that although the PM appears to be down, he is not out yet.
“Just look at his past; he has always come out stronger when everyone thought he w
as done. He will bounce back and that rebound will land him in State House next
year,” he said.
However, he said it was the wrong strategy for Mr Odinga to have engaged in the
mudslinging with his opponents.
“I can say that is where he went wrong. He gave them the arsenal to hit him,” he sai
d.
After slugging it out with his opponents for a while, an approach that momentari
ly raised the political temperatures considerably, he went quiet and has since t
aken a conciliatory tone.
“The fact that he has kept quiet does not mean he does not have a strategy,” said Ra
ngwe MP Martin Ogindo. “In war a retreat does not mean a surrender, it means you a
re going to re-evaluate your strategies and that is what Raila is doing.”
This is a fact that even his harshest critics acknowledge. They know it would be
foolhardy to conclude at this point that he is down and out.
Mr Odinga is a famed wily politician. Mr Gumbo likened him to a magician with a
bagful of tricks and “you never quite know what trick he will pull next”.
So what is his strategy? No one knows exactly. Some say he does not have any, so
me say he is keeping it close to his chest, just watching the political game unf
old.
But, true to his character as master of political strategy, Mr Odinga caused a b
uzz last week by suggesting he could support anyone else in ODM for the presiden
cy.
Political observers say that Mr Odinga would most likely back Deputy Prime Minis
ter Musalia Mudavadi. This would throw the spanner into the works for the buddin
g alliance between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.
Second fiddle
Salient tensions have been reported within the Uhuru-Ruto alliance with supporte
rs of the latter saying they are unhappy with their man playing second fiddle to
Mr Kenyatta.
It is interesting to note that a number of Kalenjin MPs said they would consider
backing Mr Mudavadi’s candidature if he was to stand. Emuhaya’s Wilbur Otichillo sa
ys it is too early to pass judgement on his captain’s 2012 chances.
“Kenya’s politics is very fluid and changes like a tidal wave,” he said. “Those who have
started campaigns this early will wear themselves out.”
But he said the first step the PM should take towards a comeback is to reach out
to the rebels within ODM.
“I still believe we can be part of the same team if we sit down (and talk) because
we have a lot in common with them,” he said. Whether this will be possible remain
s to be seen.
All this politicking would have made good politics were it not for the sad fact
that, in their zeal to vanquish him, the anti-Raila campaigners have peppered th
eir talk with unsavoury comments about him, which the National Cohesion and Inte
gration and Commission warns could cause ethnic tensions.
Mr Odinga’s opponents have sought to reassure the public that the attacks are aime
d solely at the PM and not his Luo community, as Mr Kenyatta explained in a poli
tical rally in Kiambu recently.
But in Kenya’s ethnic-based politics, that argument does not hold water, according
to Mr Onesmus Murkommen, a law lecturer at Moi University and a political obser
ver.
“In Kenya certain leaders embody the ideals of their respective communities and th
at is why they are kingpins where they come from. Therefore, an attack on these
individuals is construed to be an attack on the larger community,” he said.
Post-election violence
The upshot of this mudslinging is that it is likely to result in one ethnic grou
p, in this case the Luo, being a target of hate as were the Kikuyu in the run-up
to the 2007 General Election. This is one of the factors that fanned the post-e
lection violence.
And this would defeat the whole purpose of the power-sharing agreement, whose br
oad perspectives, engendered in Agenda Four articles, were supposed to forge a l
ess tribal and a more united, cohesive nation.