You are on page 1of 6

April 28th 2011

Fed Stays on Course


Federal Reserve maintains the course of its monetary policy as the central bank signals that the QE2
will not be terminated earlier and that even after it expires next June, the Fed will likely to stick to
the current interest rates setting.

Commodities skyrocketed upon the Fed’s statement, with spot gold hitting $1,529.90 and the futures
contract for June delivery soaring towards $1,530.70 an ounce. Both US light crude and Brent crude
contracts for June deliveries ended at $112.76 and $125.13 a barrel, respectively. The US dollar
index on the other hand, fell to as low as 73.26.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average itself zoomed 95.59 points higher or up 0.76% at 12,690.96,
while the S&P 500 index ended at 1,355.66, up 8.42 points or 0.62%. NASDAQ Composite was also
strong, gaining 22.34 points or 0.78% to settle at 2,869.88.

All but poor ol’ CSCO carved gains by the end of the day. CSCO was hammered 1.88%, sending it
back towards $17.19. The top gainer of the day was GE with 2.74% gains after CEO Jeff Immelt
said in the company’s shareholder meeting that earnings growth outlook of the company is very
strong.

The company’s outlook and portfolio is seen as the best in 10 years, and that solar share will reach
5% by 2015, or worth $5B. GE’s oil and gas business is also seen improving to worth $10B in the
next 10 years. Turnaround in real estate this year is seen shaving the losses in GE Capital. Ecology
products are seen contributing more than $21B in revenue this year. The upbeat business assessment
sent GE higher at $20.65.

On other occasions, XOM raised 2Q dividend from 44c to 47c in 1Q. This will be payable on June
10th with record date of May 13th. XOM’s rival CVX also declared quarterly dividend of 78c per
share, up 8.3% from the company’s last dividend payable on June 10 th to holders of common stocks
with record date set on May 19th.

Also declaring dividend on Wednesday, DD said that the quarterly dividend of 41c payable on June
10th with record date of May 13th. The amount is unchanged from the one paid last quarter and it will
be the 427th consecutive quarterly dividend paid by DD since 1904. DD’s board also authorized
share buyback program for up to $2B of the company’s common stock, but this would only commence
after the remaining $500 million under the previous program is completed.

MRK also announced share buyback program on Wednesday. The company will buy another $5
billion of shares in addition to prior program, making up the total of $6.4 billion. MRK’s hep C drug
VICTRELIS was also reported to have been approved by the FDA unanimously. Elsewhere, PFE
launched its new advanced child nutrition products.

1 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)
April 28th 2011

Earnings Review
Only one Dow component reported earnings on Wednesday: BA

Revenues came in at $14.91B, below the consensus estimate of $15.22B. The figure is also below last
year’s revenues of $15.14B. EPS was reported at 78c, beating both consensus and prior year’s
figures of 70c and 72c, respectively.

Revenues in billions of Earnings Per Share


dollars Actual Consensus Previous
Actual Consensus Previous $0.78
$15.22
$15.14 $0.72
$14.91 $0.70

Revenues EPS

On its FY11 EPS outlook, the company sees it to come between $3.80 and $4.00 per share,
unchanged from BA’s prior estimates. The forecast however, was below the consensus of $4.08 per
share.

Commercial deliveries Military deliveries


13 13
Mar-11 Mar-10 104 108 Mar-11 Mar-10
87 86

4 4
3 3 3
2
19 1
13
4 0 0
3
F/A-18 F-15E Eagle C-17 KC-767 Intl CH-47 Chinook AH-64 Apache
Globemaster Tanker
737 767 777 Total

Going into the business segments, Commercial Airplanes revenue slipped 5% to $7.1B in the first
quarter, while total revenues coming in from Boeing Defense, Space & Security segment were barely
unchanged at $7.62B.

BA ended the day up 57c or 0.75% at $76.12, but during the after hours session it slipped 22c or
0.29% to $75.90.

2 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)
April 28th 2011

Day Ahead
Three Dow components will report on Thursday: MSFT, XOM, and PG.

$2.07

F/C Prv

$1.33

$0.97
$0.83
$0.56
$0.45

MSFT Q3 PG Q3 XOM Q1

Investor may want to assess MSFT’s response to the Japan’s quake as well as the strategy to battle
rising commodity while battling AAPL and GOOG on many fronts. Then there’s going to be XOM who
should be benefited by the rising oil. The question will be on whether production volume also rose in
the quarter. XOM has just declared dividends, so this would be supportive towards the stock. PG is
also reporting later on.

3 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)
April 28th 2011

Stock Focus: Exxon Mobil Corporation


XOM
Last Apr 27th Resistances 88.23 89.80 94.38 96.12 98.75
$87.78 0.41% Supports 86.22 84.47 83.53 82.38 78.80
WTD MTD Outlook
1.64% 4.34% POSITIVE
YTD 12-Month Price Tgt
20.05% 29.53% $89.80

XOM is scheduled to release its earnings today, and the oil giant is currently in a bullish mood as oil
prices remain high and supporting it as well as other oil producers such as XOM. Chart indicators
point at more upside potentials. EMAs are up, MACD is rising and RSI just broke a recent top. For
now, expect the upside is limited at $89.80, but very strong earnings figures could jolt the stock
higher towards $94.38. Longer-term, XOM will find natural support coming from high oil prices.

4 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)
April 28th 2011

Price Performance - as of Apr 27th 2011


Code Last Dy WTD MTD YTD 12-Mos
AA 17.18 0.88% 1.24% -2.72% 11.63% 27.92%
AXP 47.62 1.10% 1.08% 5.35% 10.95% 3.25%
BA 76.12 0.75% 0.90% 2.96% 16.64% 5.09%
BAC 12.33 0.82% 0.16% -7.50% -7.57% -30.85%
CAT 112.61 0.60% 2.92% 1.13% 20.23% 65.38%
CSCO 17.19 -1.88% 1.48% 0.23% -15.03% -36.17%
CVX 108.97 0.20% 0.78% 1.38% 19.42% 33.80%
DD 55.62 1.02% -0.52% 1.18% 11.51% 39.61%
DIS 42.58 0.59% 0.73% -1.18% 13.52% 15.58%
GE 20.65 2.74% 3.51% 2.99% 12.90% 9.49%
HD 37.32 0.30% -1.27% 0.70% 6.45% 5.93%
HPQ 41.04 0.86% 0.12% 0.17% -2.52% -21.03%
IBM 170.37 1.12% 1.24% 4.48% 16.09% 32.07%
INTC 22.63 0.67% 5.45% 12.14% 7.61% -0.92%
JNJ 65.57 0.95% 2.34% 10.67% 6.01% 1.98%
JPM 45.50 0.84% 1.84% -1.30% 7.26% 6.86%
KFT 33.57 0.54% 0.57% 7.05% 6.54% 13.41%
KO 67.00 0.10% -1.30% 0.99% 1.87% 25.35%
MCD 77.87 1.21% 1.25% 2.34% 1.45% 10.31%
MMM 96.47 0.55% 2.72% 3.18% 11.78% 8.80%
MRK 35.63 1.63% 4.67% 7.94% -1.14% 1.68%
MSFT 26.38 0.73% 3.37% 3.90% -5.48% -13.62%
PFE 20.63 2.18% 4.24% 1.58% 17.82% 23.39%
PG 64.02 0.30% 1.19% 3.93% -0.48% 2.99%
T 31.42 1.55% 2.41% 2.65% 6.94% 20.57%
TRV 62.25 1.40% 1.52% 4.66% 11.74% 22.68%
UTX 87.86 0.00% 0.87% 3.79% 11.61% 17.22%
VZ 38.25 1.65% 3.63% -0.75% 6.90% 32.35%
WMT 54.42 0.95% 1.57% 4.55% 0.91% 1.45%
XOM 87.78 0.41% 1.64% 4.34% 20.05% 29.53%

5 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)
April 28th 2011

Analysts' Upgrades & Downgrades


Code House Ratings PT
AXP Barclays Overweight $55.00
CSCO BofA/ML - $22.00
KO Credit Suisse Outperform $70 $80
KO Gabelli Buy -
MMM Goldman Sachs Neutral $107.00
MMM FBR Capital Outperform $99 $105
MMM UBS AG Buy $103 $108
n Reiterate n Upgrade n Downgrade n Initiation
US Economic Calendar
Date Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
25-Apr 10:00 AM New home sales Mar 300K 290K 270K
26-Apr 9:00 AM Case-Shiller home prices Feb -1.1% - -1.0%
26-Apr 10:00 AM Consumer confidence Apr 65.40 65.0 63.8
27-Apr 8:30 AM Durable goods orders Mar 2.5% 3.0% -0.6%
27-Apr 8:30 AM Core equipment orders Mar 3.7% - -0.7%
27-Apr 12:30 PM FOMC statement
28-Apr 8:30 AM Jobless claims 23-Apr 395K 402K
28-Apr 8:30 AM GDP Q1 1.7% 3.1%
28-Apr 10:00 AM Pending home sales Mar 2.1%
29-Apr 8:30 AM Personal income Mar 0.3% 0.3%
29-Apr 8:30 AM Consumer spending Mar 0.5% -0.7%
29-Apr 8:30 AM Core PCE Price Index Mar 0.1% 0.2%
29-Apr 8:30 AM Employment cost index Q1 0.5% 0.4%
29-Apr 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Apr 68.0% 70.6%
29-Apr 9:55 AM Consumer sentiment Apr 70.0 67.5

Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This
report has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but there is no assurance or guarantee regarding its
completeness and accuracy. The author accepts no responsibility or liability arising from any use of the report.

6 .DJI 12,690.96 (+95.59 ● +0.76%) .SPX 1,355.66 (+8.42 ● +0.62%) .IXIC 2,869.88 (+22.34 ● +0.78%)

You might also like