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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
Tory Minority Likely
TORONTO
These voting intention results, if held on Election Day, would likely yield May 1st, 2011
approximately 147 Tory seats, 125 NDP seats, 35 Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc
Quebecois seat, within a range of approximately plus or minus 10 seats for each
party. These results may change as voting intentions change and are subject to HIGHLIGHTS:
the usual margins of error.
These voting intention
results, if held on Election
‘These results truly underscore how close the race has become between the NDP Day, would likely yield
and Conservative parties. With polling day around the corner this federal election approximately 147 Tory
seats, 125 NDP seats, 35
could be won by either party.’ – Dr. Lorne Bozinoff
Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc
Quebecois seat.
‘These results truly
underscore how close the
Methodology race has become between
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an the NDP and Conservative
interactive voice response telephone survey of 3,789 randomly selected eligible parties. With polling day
around the corner this
voters across Canada. The poll was conducted on April 30th, 2011.
federal election could be
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/‐ 1.6%, 19 times out won by either party’ – Dr.
of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for Lorne Bozinoff
both subsample (such as age, gender) results and regional results are available at
www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the
sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather
captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research
Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100%
Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research
firms.
Copyright Forum Research Inc., 2011. All rights reserved. No reproduction
without permission.
180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6
T 416.960.9600
F 416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
The key questions covered in the recent poll concerned:
TORONTO
May 1st, 2011
Party Support
‘If the federal election were held on Monday, which party would you be
most likely to vote for?’ + ‘Even though you may not have made up your
mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?’ + ‘Are you
absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely or not very likely to vote in
the federal election on Monday?
Comparison to Previous Polls
[Decided / Leaning]
[Decided / Leaning Who Plan to Vote]
Region
Rest Rest MB/
% Total ATL QC MTL
of QC
ON GTA
of ON SK
AB BC
Sample 3789 302 977 439 538 1421 616 805 274 442 366
Conservative 35 35 16 11 20 36 40 34 45 59 39
Liberal 19 26 13 18 9 25 30 22 15 11 15
NDP 33 30 44 49 41 31 26 34 33 19 37
Green 7 8 5 6 4 7 4 9 5 10 9
Bloc
5 0 21 16 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Quebecois
180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6
T 416.960.9600
F 416.960.9602
3 forumresearch.com
-30-
For more information:
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D.
President
Forum Research Inc.
Tel: (416) 960‐9603
Fax: (416) 960‐9602
E‐mail: lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6
T 416.960.9600
F 416.960.9602
4 forumresearch.com