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A comparisonof antiperspirant
data analysismethods
Received
January22, 1992.
Synopsis
The purpose of anantiperspirant
studymaybeto estimatethe efficacy of a product,to compare two or more
products,or to providesupportfor an advertisingclaim. In anyof thesecases,variousstatisticalmethods
areavailableto analyzethe data.In thispaper,we will compare threemethodsof estimatingthe efficacy
of a singleantiperspirant
product.Over the yearsHill Top Research, Inc. hascollectedvastamountsof
antiperspirant
data,andthislargebaseof historicalinformation will beutilizedforcomparing thestatistical
methodsof interest.This investigationsuggeststhat oneof the methodsis preferable to the others.
INTRODUCTION
ANTIPERSPIRANT TERMINOLOGY
13
14 JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY OF COSMETIC CHEMISTS
CONDITIONING
BASELINE
TREATMENT
STATISTICAL METHODS
WOODING-FINKELSTEIN METHOD
Estimate
of meanpercent
reduction
= [1 - Antilog(Y•og)/Antilog
(X•og)]x 100.
To find an intervalestimateof the meanpercentreduction,two stepsarerequired.First,
followingan analysisof varianceusingthe transformed data, a confidenceinterval is
calculatedusinga smallsample(Student'st) method.The endpointsof this intervalare
then exponentiatedto transformthem backto the percentreductionscale(5).
DIRECT METHOD
Table I
Estimates of Mean Percent Reductions
Method
ß 1
reducuons. The calculationof this intervalis obtainedby a methodusedin deodorant
efficacystudies(6).
RESULTS
t Depending
onthenumber
ofsubjects
sampled,
eithera Student's
t ora largesample
Z intervalmightbe
found. To assurevalidity, we would recommendsamplingoverthirty subjectsand usingthe largesample
procedure.
2 Whenselecting
thefifteenantiperspirant
studies
to beanalyzed,
wemadesuretheycovered
a widerange
of efficacies.This wasthe only criterionusedto selectthe studies,and no studieswere eliminatedbecause
of lack of supportfor our conclusions.
3 Thiscollection
is accepted
asonethatis appropriate
to usewhenestimating
theefficacy
of anantiper-
spirant.
ANTIPERSPIRANT DATA ANALYSIS 17
the DM. The averageof the estimatesof percentreductionusing the WFM are 3.68
larger than the averageof the estimatesusing the DM. In 12 of the 15 studies,the
percentreductionproducedby the ARM is larger than the corresponding estimate
producedby the DM. The ARM producedestimatesthat averaged1.22 morethan those
producedby the DM. There are theoreticalreasonsthat explain the differencesin the
estimatesshownby theseempiricalresults.
A basicstatisticalresultis that the arithmeticmeanof a sampleis an unbiasedestima-
tor4. Since
theDM uses
themeanofthesample
ofpercent
reductions
in sweating
asan
estimator, this method will providean unbiasedestimator,one that tends (on the
average)to be neitherlargernorsmallerthanthe true efficacyof the antiperspirantbeing
tested. It can be mathematicallyshownthat for any given antiperspirantstudy, the
estimatedpercentreductionproducedby the WFM will alwaysbe larger than the
corresponding
estimate
produced
bytheDM5.ThustheWFMwilltendtooverestimate
the efficacyof an antiperspirant.
The estimateproducedby the ARM usesthe averageof ratios.It is for this reasonthat
in Table I the estimatesfor percentreductionfor the ARM tend to be slightly larger
thanthose
produced
bytheDM6.
When comparingestimators,an unbiasedestimatoris generallypreferredto onethat is
biased.For this reason,the DM is preferableto both the ARM andthe WFM. A second
point that is oftenconsideredwhencomparingmethodsof estimationis the variability
associated
withtheestimators
7. Thiscanbethought
of asa measure
of precision,
and
may be assessed
by examiningthe widthsof the confidence
intervalsestimates.
In Table II we present95% confidenceintervalscalculatedby the WFM, ARM, and
DM for the fifteen antiperspirantstudiesintroducedin Table I.
The averagewidth of the ARM confidence intervalsis 2.52 lessthan the averagewidth
of the DM confidenceintervals.Thus it appearsthat the ARM estimatesare lessvariable
than the DM estimates,and for the samesamplesizes,this tendsto be true. However,
baselinemeasurementsmust be collectedto obtain the ARM estimates,while this is not
necessary
for the DM to be used.If baselinemeasurements
were not collected,these
resources
couldbe usedto collectmoreposttreatmentmeasurements.
Thus, for similar
expenditures,the ARM and DM would produceconfidenceintervalsof comparable
widths.
The averagewidth of the WFM intervalsis 0.22 lessthan the averagewidth of the DM
intervals.Theseempiricalresultssuggestthereis little differencein the variabilityof the
two estimators.
4 In thiscontext,
anunbiased
estimator
will ontheaverage
beequalto thevalueit isestimating.
5 Thisisdueto therelationship
between
thegeometric
mean(calculated
fortheWFM) andthearithmetic
mean (calculated for the DM).
6 Whenthesample
average
ratiooftwovariables
isusedtoestimate
theratioofthetrueaverages
ofthe
two variables,the estimateis generallynot unbiased.
7 A comparison
of the variabilityof differentestimators
is of mostinterestwhencomparing
different
unbiased estimators.
18 JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY OF COSMETIC CHEMISTS
Table II
95% Confidence Intervals for Mean Percent Reductions
Method
ARM WFM DM
DISCUSSION
lOO
4-0-
30-
20-
lO-
go-
80-
70-
60-
'• ,50-
i,
4.0-
,30-
20-
10-
0 :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
..............................................
:::
.........................................................
::::::::::::::::::
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
LOG(MILLIGRAMS)
Figure 3. Graph of approximately5000 naturallogarithmsof milligram data.
100-
80-
60-
>-
i,i
i,
4.o'
20.
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
..........................................................................
.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4- 0.6
PERCENT REDUCTION
Othermethods
of analysis
suchasanalysis
of covariance,
analysis
of log-transformed
adjustedratios,and non-parametric methodshavealsobeenusedby experimenters to
analyzeantiperspirantdata. Sincethe first two of thesemethodsusetransformeddata,
theywill providebiasedestimators,asthe Wooding-Finkelstein methoddoes.Although
a non-parametric techniquemight be valid, it is well known that non-parametric
methodsare lesspowerfulthan parametricmethods.Thus the direct methodwould be
preferred.
Finally, we want to emphasize that the resultsof this paperare in referenceto experi-
mentsin which the objectiveis to estimatethe percentreductionof an antiperspirant.
For studieswith otherobjectives,suchastestingwhich of two or moreantiperspirants
hasthe greater(or greatest)efficacy,it is asyet to bedeterminedwhat, if any, statistical
analysisis most appropriate.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authorsgratefullyacknowledge
CindyYablokand SallyBurkhardfor their assis-
tancein the preparationof this manuscript.
REFERENCES