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Autos – implications of potential Yen appreciation
Details of losses from the worst earthquake in Japan’s history and resulting
14 March 2011
Tsunami are yet to be calculated, though the Japanese PM called it the worst
disaster to hit Japan since WWII. Muhammad Saqib Sajjad
Initial news flow and analyst comments suggest the impact on GDP to be lower Saqib.sajjad@kasb.com
than the 1995 Kobe earthquake as the affected areas are neither densely KASB Securities Limited
+92 21 111 222 000
populated not highly industrialized.
Having said that, Japanese being the third‐largest economy and net savers (23.1%
of GDP) are expected to impact both global currency and commodities markets. PSMC earning sensitivity to Yen/PRs
While weaker initial demand should negatively affect commodities prices, Yen/PRs 2011E 2012E
Japanese repatriating investments to use in relief/reconstruction activities should ‐10% 11.3 16.8
cause Yen appreciation. The Japanese yen appreciated by 20% post Kobe ‐5% 7.9 12.3
earthquake. Base 4.5 7.8
We believe this can affect autos by (1) disruption in parts supplies though +5% 1.1 3.5
inventory holdings (35‐45 days on average) should help in smooth local +10% (2.3) (1.1)
Source: KASB research
production in the short‐term, (2) Yen appreciation raising parts and CKD costs. On
a positive side, CBUs becoming more expensive will limit inflow of used cars in the INDU earning sensitivity to Yen/PRs
local market. Yen/PRs FY11E FY12E
While currency analysts are yet to come up with estimates of likely Yen ‐10% 40.2 73.7
appreciation, our static analysis suggest that every 5% Yen appreciation will ‐5% 37.0 59.0
contract PSMC’s 2011E earnings by 3.4/sh (from our base‐case of PRs4.5/sh) and Base 33.7 44.4
Indus’ FY11E earnings by PRs3.2/sh (from our base‐case of PRs33.7/sh). The swing +5% 30.5 29.8
factors from these estimates include (1) automakers raising prices to pass‐on the +10% 27.3 15.1
Source: KASB research
impact to end users as they are operating at wafer‐thin margins and (2) cushion
from US$/Yen hedging used by automakers to counter FX risk.
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