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Astral Polytechnik Ltd. CMP Rs 170 P/E 7.2x FY2013E  BUY


We initiate coverage on Astral Polytechnik Ltd. (ASPL) as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 222 over a period of
15-18 months representing a potential upside of ~31%. At CMP of Rs 170, the stock is trading at 9.7x and 7.2x its
estimated earnings for FY2012E & FY2013E, respectively. Astral Polytechnik Ltd. is one of the leading providers of
PVC and CPVC plumbing solutions spanning across all segments in the domestic market. Aided by collaboration
with Lubrizol and Speciality Process Plc, the company has been able to incorporate the latest technology and
quality control programs in its plants which are widely accepted at the global level. We expect revenue and
earnings to grow at a CAGR of 30.0% and 24.1% respectively over the next three years.

PRICE TARGET Rs 222/- (15-18 Months) Capacity expansion and robust demand to foster long term growth
Index Details The plumbing market is growing at 15-20% on the back of robust demand
Sensex 18,534 for housing and commercial construction. Bulk of this demand is expected
Nifty 5,565 to come from the PVC and CPVC segments due to significant advantage
BSE 500 7,203
Plastic over the use of traditional GI pipes. In order to capitalize on this
Industry opportunity, ASPL is investing over Rs 35-40 crore to expand capacities
Products
Scrip Details from the current 45000 MTPA to 60000 MTPA by FY12. We forecast
Mkt Cap (Rs in crore) 382.0 revenues to grow at CAGR of 30.0% to Rs 639.2 crore by FY13.
Book Value (Rs) 52.3
Eq Shares O/s (Cr) 0.1
Avg Vol (Lakhs) 0.1 Dominance in the CPVC space with exclusive licensing from Lubrizol
52 Week H/L 194.0 Exclusive license for manufacturing CPVC products from Lubrizol has
Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 helped ASPL emerge as a market leader (60% market share) in Rs 400
Face Value (Rs) 5.0 crore domestic CPVC pipes and fittings market. While there are two other
BSE Code 532830 players in the market, ASPLs size, reach and brand visibility have helped it
NSE Code ASTRAL emerge as a dominant force in this market. Currently the company holds
exclusive manufacturing license for 3 products ('Corzan', 'Blazemaster',
Shareholding Pattern (31st March, 2011) 'Bendable), while ‘Flowguard’ license is shared with 2 other players.
Shareholders % holding Revenue from this segment are expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.7% to
Promoters 63.8 Rs 428.2 crore form ~ Rs 180 crore in FY10.
Indian Institutions -
FII’s 1.1
Non Promoter Corporate 6.4
New product innovation, new geographies and network expansion to
Public 28.7 spur growth in the medium term
Total 100.0 In order to provide best plumbing solutions, ASPL has continuously
introduced new innovative products at regular intervals having wide
ASPL vs. Sensex applications. Going forward ASPL intends to add 2 more products
(Flowguard Bendable and Blazemaster) to its existing portfolio which
should help diversify revenue streams. As part its expansion drive, the
company has set up shop in Nairobi in JV with local promoters which
should open up new opportunities in East Africa. Locally too the company is
beefing up its distribution with a thrust on the southern markets where
CPVC / PVC have greater compared to the rest of the country. We are
positive on all the initiatives undertaken and should translate into higher
revenue growth in the medium term.

Key Financials (Rs in Cr)


Y/E Mar Net EPS Growth ROCE RONW EV/
EBITDA PAT EPS P/E (X)
(Rs Crore) Revenue (%) (%) (%) EBITDA(X)
2010 291.2 42.5 27.7 12.3 - 23.6 23.9 13.8 9.8
2011E 383.0 48.6 28.9 12.9 4.4 20.0 21.0 13.2 8.5
2012E 499.6 69.4 39.3 17.5 35.9 21.7 23.2 9.7 6.0
2013E 639.2 92.0 52.9 23.6 34.7 22.8 24.5 7.2 4.5

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 Company Background

Established in 1999, Astral Polytechnik Ltd. is one of the leading providers


of plumbing solutions in the domestic market. Presently the company is
capable of producing Chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC) and Polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) plumbing systems both for residential, commercial, hotels,
hospitals and industrial applications.

Astral is the first licensee of Lubrizol, USA to manufacture and distribute 4


of Lubrizol’s CPVC branded products namely 'Corzan', 'Blazemaster',
'Bendable' and 'FlowGuard in India. With the exception of Flowguard, ASPL
has exclusive license to manufacture 3 of these CPVC products.

In addition, ASPL has a joint venture (86:14) with Speciality Process LLC of
USA (28 years plumbing experience) to manufacture and market advanced
plumbing solution in India.

ASPL product portfolio

Source: ASPL, Ventura


ASPL has state of art production facilities at Ahemdabad (~40000 MTPA)
and Himachal Pradesh (~5000 MTPA) to manufacture plumbing systems
from ½” to 12” with all kinds of necessary fittings. Ahemdabad facility is
capable of producing both pipes and fittings whereas HP facility is equipped
to manufacture fittings only. Few other distinct features of its plants:

• ASPL is the only Indian company to obtain National Sanitation

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Foundation (world renowned organization of USA for certification of
plumbing system) for both its facilities

• The company has UL (Underwriters Laboratories) approval for


CPVC Blazemaster Fire Sprinkler systems

• Along with low power cost and concessional sales tax rate (1%),
HP facility is exempt from excise duty and income tax for 5 years till
FY2015.

The company exports CPVC/PVC products in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri


Lankan markets. Recently in joint venture with local promoters of Kenya
ASPL (32% stake) has started a 6000 TPA manufacturing facility at Nairobi
which would help the company establish its brand presence in East African
markets.

 Key Investment highlights

Capacity expansion and robust demand to foster long term growth

The plumbing market is growing at 15-20% on the back of robust demand


for housing and commercial construction. Bulk of this demand is expected
to come from the PVC and CPVC segments due to significant advantage
over the use of traditional GI pipes. In order to capitalize on this
opportunity, ASPL is investing over Rs 35-40 crore to expand capacities
from the current 45000 MTPA to 60000 MTPA by FY12. We forecast
revenues to grow at CAGR of 30.0% to Rs 639.2 crore by FY13.

PVC & CPVC are far superior to GI pipes


Besides being a cheaper alternative, PVC / CPVC pipes weighs only a
fraction as compared to other piping materials such as steel, iron and
concrete. Further the structural systems used to support the weight of the
PVC/CPVC are much less complex, with fewer materials and less time
involved in installation. Besides this, PVC/CPVC pipes are non-conductors
of electricity and immune to electrochemical reactions caused by acids,
bases, and salts that cause corrosion in metals. Based on the above we
expect the CPVC / PVC to replace existing metal plumbing systems over
the medium to long term thus providing ASPL with a tremendous
opportunity.

Parameter GI PVC CPVC


Life span 7-8 years 40 years 40 years
Cost Costliest Cost effective (~25%) Cost effective (~25%)
Corrosion Yes No No
Installation Require heavy equipment Easy to install Easy to install
Noise Loudest Quieter Quieter
Durability Comparatively less Higher Higher
Fire Attracts Attracts Resistant
Weight Heavy Light Light
Versatility Limited designs Freedom of designs Freedom of designs
Chemical resistance No No Yes
Bacterial growth Highest Higher Lowest
Source: ASPL, Ventura

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CPVC products are far superior to PVC products
Chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC) is PVC (polyvinyl chloride) that has
been chlorinated via a free radical chlorination reaction. Because of its
excellent corrosion resistance at elevated temperatures, CPVC is ideally
suited for self-supporting constructions where temperatures up to 200 °F
(90 °C) are present. The ability to bend, shapes, and weld CPVC enables
its use in a wide variety of processes and applications. It also exhibits fire-
retardant properties. Aided by its inherent properties CPVC is emerging as
preferable product in global plumbing industry. At present Lubrizol is the
key global supplier of CPVC products and resins and commands ~70% of
global market share. And with an exclusive license to manufacture these
products in India, ASPL is an enviable position to dominate this market.

Demand to grow across all segments

Over 44% of the Indian plastic market (Rs 850 bn) is consumed in the
construction industry for pipes and fittings. The fast growing Rs 400 crore
CPVC domestic market is expected to grow at CAGR of 30% over the
medium term while the Rs 10000 crore PVC market is expected to continue
to grow at 15-20%.

Pan India Sector wise plastic consumption

Source: ASPL, Ventura

This accelerated growth in CPVC / PVC is propelled by the shortage of


housing (26 mn units by FY12) and rapid development of commercial
construction (Complex, Malls, Hotels, SEZ etc). Further the housing
demand supply is only expected to widen driven by increased urbanization,
rising middle class population (from 50mn in 2007 to 583 mn by 2025) and
their increasing purchasing power and government thrust to promote
affordable housing. The biggest beneficiary of this robust housing demand
will be CPVC / PVC plumbing industry as they are cheaper alternatives to
GI pipes and have significant advantage over conventional piping system.

ASPL building capacities to meet future requirements


Encouraged by the strong domestic demand, the company has expanded
its capacity ~10 folds in past 6 years to 45,000 MT as compared to a
meagre 400 MT in FY06. To cater to the burgeoning demand for CPVC /
PVC products ASPL is planning to expand its capacity by another 15,000
MTPA at a cost of Rs 40 crore at Gujarat (village Dholka) which is expected
to get operational by the end of FY12. The Capex is to be funded through a
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mixture of debt and internal accruals.

Future expansions are likely to come up at Hosur Tamil Nadu, which will
aid ASPL to strengthen its presence in the fast growing Southern market.
The company has already procured the land for the same.

Capacity expansion and utilization rate

70000 80%
75%
60000
70%
50000 65%
40000 60%

MTPA
55%
30000 50%
20000 45%
40%
10000
35%
0 30%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Capacity MT (LHS) Utilisation Rate (RHS)

Source: ASPL, Ventura

Revenues to grow at an accelerated pace

The capacity expansions and improved efficiency are expected to help


bolster sales growth at a CAGR of 30% to Rs 639.2 crore by FY13 (from Rs
291.4 crore clocked in FY10). Majority of this growth is expected to come
from the CPVC segment which is likely to grow at CAGR of 32.7% to Rs
428.2 crore in FY13 from Rs ~180 crore in FY10. Subsequently contribution
of CPVC segment is expected to rise to 67% in FY13 from 63% in FY10.
During the current fiscal FY11, the operating margins had taken a hit due to
increased RM prices. However on account of economies of scale and
increased contribution from CVPC (15-16% margin), we expect the
company to regain its prior EBITDA margin of 14-15%.
ASPL revenues to grow with increasing margins

Source: ASPL, Ventura

-5- Tuesday, 03rd May, 2011

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 Dominant player in the CPVC space with exclusive licensing from
Lubrizol and technical collaboration provided by Speciality Process
LLC

Exclusive license for manufacturing CPVC products from Lubrizol has


helped ASPL emerge as a market leader (60% market share) in Rs 400
crore domestic CPVC pipes and fittings market. While there are two other
players in the market, ASPLs size, reach and brand visibility have helped it
emerge as a dominant force in this market. Currently the company holds
exclusive manufacturing license for 3 products ('Corzan', 'Blazemaster',
'Bendable), while ‘Flowguard’ license is shared with 2 other players. The
license for the 3 exclusive brands was last renewed in 2010 which extends
ASPL’s manufacturing exclusivity for another 3 years till 2013. At present
this segment which contributes 63% toward net revenues is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 32.7% to Rs 428.2 crore by FY13 from ~Rs 180 crore
clocked in FY10.

The company is ably assisted with technology provided by Specialty


Process Plc which has a 14% stake in ASPL. Speciality Process PLC has
more than 25 years experience in the global plumbing industry.

 New product innovation, new geographies and network expansion


to spur growth

In order to provide best plumbing solutions, ASPL has continuously


introduced new innovative products at regular intervals having wide
applications. Going forward ASPL intends to add 2 more products
(Flowguard Bendable and Blazemaster) to its existing portfolio which
should help diversify revenue streams. As part its expansion drive, the
company has set up shop in Nairobi in JV with local promoters which
should open up new opportunities in East Africa. Locally too the company is
beefing up its distribution with a thrust on the southern markets where
CPVC / PVC have greater acceptance compared to the rest of the country.
We are positive on all the initiatives undertaken and should translate into
higher revenue growth in the medium term.

New product introductions to spur growth and help maintain market


leadership status

Aided by its continuous thrust on innovation, ASPL has built an impressive


portfolio of 11 innovative products over the years Starting from merely hot
and cold water system, the company has added industrial piping, lead-free
PVC plumbing, ABS pressure pipes, CPVC aluminium bendable pipes,
sewage, waste & rain water management systems, and underground
drainage system products to its bouquet.

Taking forward the same kind of initiatives the company is intends to add 2
more products (Flowguard Bendable and Blazemaster) to its existing
portfolio. Flowguard Bendable offers an easier and more economical
alternative to conventional piping system. Excellent combination of flexibility
and rigidity allows the pipe to be workable in most of the conditions. At
present the product is manufactured by Lubrizol and the company invloved

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in distribution of product only. Going forward the company intends to
manufacture and distribute the Flowguard Bendable brand on its own.

The other product which company intends to launch in FY12 is Blazemaster


CPVC pipes and fittings which has very high acceptance in the global fire
sprinkler market. Blazemaster is a brand of Lubrizol and ASPL has
exclusive license to manufacture the product in India. The current market
size of fire sprinkler systems in India is ~Rs 700 crore. Higher ignition
resistance, lower installation cost and more shell life makes Blazemaster
pipes and fittings a better value proposition compared to GI pipes.

Newer geographies to provide growth through diversification

At present the company exports CPVC/PVC products to Nepal, Bangladesh


and Sri Lankan markets. Recently in joint venture with a local promoter
group in Kenya, ASPL (32% stake) has started a 6000 TPA manufacturing
facility at Nairobi which would help the company establish its brand
presence in the East African markets

Network expansion and product education initiatives to help grow the


market.

With 7000 retailers and 350 distributors the company has a well-diversified
nationwide distribution network. The company is strengthening its presence
in Southern markets which has higher acceptance for CPVC / PVC
products. Along with regular participation in exhibitions (Plastindia,
Plumbex and Ace), the company is arranging training sessions for
plumbers to increase its brand recognition among plumbing community.

 Key Concerns

Competition risk

The company is entirely dependent on Lubrizol for CPVC resins which is a


key raw material required for manufacturing of CPVC pipes. Apart from
ASPL, there are two other companies which holds exclusive license to
manufacture Lubrizol’s CPVC pipes in India. As the company expects
major growth to come from CPVC segment, any further dilution of
exclusivity can result into increased competition and have a negative
impact. However given the small size of the current market and immense
potential this should not be a limiting factor.

Vulnerable to rise in raw material prices


As significant part (CPVC is ~65% of sales) of raw material is imported, any
adverse price movement and rupee depreciation can severely dent the
profitability of the company. So far ASPL has successfully managed to pass
on the increased cost to end users.

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 Financial Performance

With the ramp up in capacities resulting into increased volumes ASPL


posted a 45.0% rise in Q3FY11 Net Sales to Rs 98.6 crore. However, due
to sharp rise witnessed in RM cost and higher cost incurred for plant
optimization, EBITDA margin for the current quarter declined by 430 bps to
11.9% for Q3FY11. Lower operating profitability front was partially offset by
higher other income and shoring up Net profit margin to 8.5%, (-70 bps
YoY).

Net sales for 9MFY11 grew by 43.2% yoy to Rs 269.6 crore due to
increased capacity utilizations. EBITDA margins for 9MFY11 declined by
230 bps to 12.8% while Net margin stood at 7.6%.

ASPL (Stand alone) Quarterly Financials


RESULTS Q3FY11
PARTICULARS Q3FY11 Q3FY10 9MFY11 9MFY10 FY10
Net Sales 98.6 68.0 269.6 188.3 291.2
Growth % 45.0% 43.2% 47.8%
Expenditure 86.9 57.0 235.0 159.8 248.7
EBITDA 11.8 11.0 34.6 28.5 42.5
Margin % 11.9% 16.2% 12.8% 15.1% 14.6%
Depreciation 2.8 2.2 7.9 6.3 8.6
EBIT (EX OI) 9.0 8.9 26.69 22.2 33.88
Other Income 3.0 0.2 3.8 0.7 1.4
EBIT 12.0 9.0 30.46 22.9 35.3
Margin % 12.2% 13.3% 11.3% 12.2% 12.1%
Interest 1.2 1.1 3.5 3.6 4.9
Exceptional Items 0.9 0.4 1.1 -0.4 -3.0
PBT 9.9 7.6 25.9 19.6 33.4
Margin % 10.1% 11.1% 9.6% 10.4% 11.5%
PAT 8.4 6.3 20.6 16.3 27.7
Margin % 8.5% 9.2% 7.6% 8.7% 9.5%
Source: ASPL, Ventura

 Financial Outlook

Aided by capacity expansions and improved efficiency we expect Net Sales


to grow at a CAGR of 30% to Rs 639.2 crore in FY13 from Rs Rs 291.2
crore in FY10. Majority of this growth is expected to come from the CPVC
segment which is expected to grow at CAGR of 33% to Rs Rs 428.2 crore
in FY13 from Rs 183.4 crore in FY10. The newly inducted facilities and
increased contribution from higher margin CPVC segment should enhance
EBITDA margins to 14.4% (+170 bps 9MFY11). Subsequently, FY13 net
margins are expected to improve to 8.3%.

ASPL’s segmental revenues


Paticulras FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E CAGR %
CPVC 183.4 247.6 329.4 428.2 33%
PVC 93.2 116.5 145.6 179.1 24%
Others 14.6 18.9 24.6 32.0 30%
Total 291.2 383.0 499.6 639.2 30%
Source: ASPL, Ventura

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ASPL’s operational outlook

Source: ASPL, Ventura

Impressive Shareholder return ratios

Source: ASPL, Ventura

 Valuation

At CMP of Rs 170 the stock is trading at 9.7x and 7.7x its estimated
earnings for FY2012E & FY2013E , respectively.We initiate coverage on
ASPL as a BUY with a 15-18 month Price Objective of Rs 222 ( Mean PE
9.4x FY13E EPS). We recommend a STRONG BUY on the stock with an
upside potential of ~31% over a period of 15-18 months.

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P/E bands

P/BV bands

EV EBITDA bands

Source: ASPL, Ventura

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Exhibit 01: Financials and Projections

Profit & Loss Statement Key Ratios


Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e
Net Sales 291.2 383.0 499.6 639.2 Per Share Data (Rs)
% Chg. 47.8 31.6 30.4 28.0 EPS 12.3 12.9 17.5 23.6
Total Expenditure 248.7 334.4 430.1 547.2 Cash EPS 16.2 17.5 23.6 31.1
% Chg. 52.1 34.5 28.6 27.2 DPS 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
EBITDA 42.5 48.6 69.4 92.0 Book Value 52.3 64.2 80.7 103.3
EBDITA Margin % 14.6 12.7 13.9 14.4 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
Other Income 1.4 4.0 1.5 1.5 Debt / Equity (x) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Fx (Gain)/Loss -3.0 -1.1 0.0 0.0 Current Ratio (x) 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
PBDIT 46.9 51.6 70.9 93.5 ROE (%) 23.6 20.0 21.7 22.8
Depreciation 8.6 10.5 13.7 17.0 ROCE (%) 23.9 21.0 23.2 24.5
Interest 4.9 4.9 6.9 8.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
PBT 33.4 36.2 50.4 67.9 Valuation Ratio (x)
Tax Provisions 5.7 7.2 11.1 14.9 P/E 13.8 13.2 9.7 7.2
Reported PAT 27.7 28.9 39.3 52.9 P/BV 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.6
PAT Margin (%) 9.5 7.6 7.9 8.3 EV/Sales 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6
EV/EBITDA 9.8 8.5 6.0 4.5
Raw Materials / Sales (%) 68.7 72.5 71.5 71.0 Efficiency Ratio (x)
Employee Exp / Sales (%) 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 Inventory (days) 88.3 82.1 82.1 82.1
Other Mfr. Exp / Sales (%) 13.6 12.0 11.8 11.8 Debtors (days) 85.0 80.3 80.3 80.3
Tax Rate (%) 17.0 20.0 22.0 22.0 Creditors (days) 126.6 131.2 131.2 131.2

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement


Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e
Share Capital 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 Profit After Tax 27.7 28.9 39.3 52.9
Reserves & Surplus 106.4 133.1 170.2 220.9 Depreciation & W/o 8.6 10.5 13.7 17.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes -16.1 -2.1 -18.1 -21.7
Total Loans 41.3 49.3 64.3 79.3 Others -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred Tax Liability 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Operating Cash Flow 19.7 37.4 34.8 48.2
Total Liabilities 160.6 195.3 247.3 313.0 Capital Expenditure -17.7 -40.0 -45.0 -45.0
Change in Investment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow from Investing -17.7 -40.0 -45.0 -45.0
Gross Block 115.6 142.1 184.6 229.6 Proceeds from equity issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Less: Acc. Depreciation 23.4 33.9 47.6 64.5 Inc/(Dec) in Debt 2.2 8.0 15.0 15.0
Net Block 92.3 108.2 137.0 165.0 Dividend Paid -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Capital Work in Progress 6.5 20.0 22.5 22.5 Cash Flow from Financing 0.0 5.8 12.8 12.8
Investments 0.0 - - -
Net Current Assets 61.9 67.1 87.8 125.5 Net Change in Cash 2.0 3.1 2.6 15.9
Misc Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Opening Cash Balance 2.3 4.3 7.4 10.0
Total Assets 160.6 195.3 247.3 313.0 Closing Cash Balance 4.3 7.4 10.0 26.0

Ventura Securities Limited


Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079
This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no
responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in
their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in
whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.

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