Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Projections
Valuation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10-15
Current Stock Price $ 26.00 Revenue 2,456.3 2,366.4 2,398.5 2,507.3 2,690.5 2,893.5 3.3%
FD Shares 90.9 y/y% 3.6% (3.7%) 1.4% 4.5% 7.3% 7.5%
Market Cap 2,363.4 EBITDA 652.7 634.3 645.8 689.7 766.5 851.9 5.5%
Plus: Debt 1,213.8 margin 26.6% 26.8% 26.9% 27.5% 28.5% 29.4%
Less: Cash (5.0) EPS $ 3.40 $ 3.50 $ 3.66 $ 3.98 $ 4.55 $ 5.40 9.7%
TEV 3,572.2 y/y% 8.8% 2.8% 4.8% 8.7% 14.2% 18.7%
Base Case Stock Price $ 57.96 PE 7.6x 7.4x 7.1x 6.5x 5.7x 4.8x
IRR 20.2% Street EPS $ 3.40 $ 3.55 $ 3.96 $ 4.26 -- -- --
Downsi de Stock Pri ce $ 24.33 Variance vs. Street 0.0% (1.4%) (7.4%) (6.5%) -- --
IRR 0.7% FCF per Share $ 3.29 $ 3.50 $ 3.66 $ 3.98 $ 4.55 $ 5.40 10.4%
yield 12.7% 13.4% 14.1% 15.3% 17.5% 20.8%
Investment Thesis
•LPS offers an asymmetric risk-reward profile as concerns over regulatory obstacles, potential legal liabilities and the near-term earnings power
of the business have resulted in a significant sell-off in the company’s shares (down 25% over the last three months).
•Regulator intervention and the foreclosure gates imposed by members of government have caused the market to overreact and punitively
price in an overly pessimistic downside scenario.
•Trading at ~6x normalized, mid-cycle earnings, we believe current valuation levels offer a material margin of safety as capital preservation is
kept intact in our downside scenario.
•A double digit entry FCF yield coupled with ~10% FCF accretion per annum over the next 4-5 years will translate into a ~$58 target price—
greater than 2x vs. today’s levels. Resolution and closure of legal issues in the near-term will eliminate uncertainty and most likely act as a
positive catalyst for LPS, resulting in modest multiple expansion.
• Snapshot of Business
2
Historical Revenue Trends and Business Mix
• Default Services revenues (driven by foreclosure starts) have more than doubled since 2007, while Loan Facilitation revenues (driven by
originations) are flat vs. 2007.
• While the transaction side of the business generates ~70% of revenues, it only accounts for ~55% of profits due to the higher margin
structure in TD&A or software solutions (+40% margins vs. 25% margins in LTS).
$3,000 100%
Other TD&A Revenues (incl Desktop) Other TD&A,
Mortgage Processing Revenues $271
Default Services Revenues 90%
Desktop, $88
$2,500 Loan Facilitation Services Revenues
80% Mortgage
$360 TD&A, $315
Processing (MSP),
$320 $403
70%
$2,000
$388 $403
$231 60%
$1,500 $230
$334 50% Default Services,
$1,061
$340
$1,061 40%
$1,137
$1,000
$852 30% Loan Facilitation
$473
Services, $418
20%
$500
Loan Facilitation
$601 $547 $641 10% Services, $641
$432
$- 0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenues EBITDA
3
Is this a business I want to own?
•LPS creates value for clients across the mortgage industry
• By providing outsourced services more efficiently than clients such as mortgage lenders can achieve in-house, LPS and other
outsourcing companies create value in the supply chain
• As the #1 provider of mortgage processing services, mortgage default solutions and centralized settlement services, LPS provides
substantial scale benefits such as leveraging regulatory compliance support costs over an aggregate base of 30 million loans
versus substantially fewer for each client
• The LTS segment delivers business process support through a convenient centralized delivery channel, regardless of geographic
location
• With more mortgage servicers moving towards process outsourcing, LPS can cross-sell products, offering clients a suite of
mortgage processing and related technologies that simplify client operations and increase cost savings
• High returns on capital: LPS’ asset-lite model has resulted in returns on tangible capital of 40-50% annually from 2006-2010
• Recurring revenue: the TD&A segment provides software to automate mortgage life cycle processes, which provides a recurring revenue
stream for LPS given monthly fee per loan structure
• LPS’ business model is insulated from economic cycles: LPS runs cyclical (loan facilitation services), countercyclical (default management
services) and cycle-neutral (mortgage processing, TD&A) business, which naturally smooths earnings and hedges LPS against economic swings
• LPS benefits from the current economic challenges & reform efforts: these trends serve as a catalyst for greater centralization and
outsourcing of mortgage processes, which provides potential for LPS market share gains across service lines
• LPS’ competitive advantage translates to new markets:
• LPS’ competitive advantage lies in its technology and service expertise, and LPS should be able to extend product penetration,
expanding usage of existing products into new markets such as automotive and government
• Process automation is a key strength for LPS, which applies to several areas, including the asset management and legal
industries, along with the public sector
• LPS has strong customer relationships, offset by high levels of customer concentration
• LPS’ customer relationships are deep and long-term in nature: on average, LPS’ top customers have been with the company for
over 21 years
• LPS typically provides an extensive number of services to each customer across multiple separate contracts
• However, LPS’ top 5 customers represent 48% of sales
Fiscal Year Ending December 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 05-10 10-15
Loan Facilitation Services -- -- 600.9 431.7 547.3 640.9 530.4 513.4 558.3 658.3 767.9 -- 3.7%
y/y% -- -- -- (28.2%) 26.8% 17.1% (17.2%) (3.2%) 8.7% 17.9% 16.6%
Default Services -- -- 473.0 851.8 1,137.3 1,060.6 1,055.0 1,068.0 1,083.4 1,104.1 1,130.4 -- 1.3%
y/y% -- -- -- 80.1% 33.5% (6.7%) (0.5%) 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4%
Loan Transaction Services Revenues 820.1 901.0 1,073.9 1,283.5 1,684.6 1,701.5 1,585.3 1,581.4 1,641.7 1,762.5 1,898.3 15.7% 2.2%
y/y% -- 9.9% 19.2% 19.5% 31.2% 1.0% (6.8%) (0.3%) 3.8% 7.4% 7.7%
Mortgage Processing Revenues -- -- 339.7 334.2 387.9 402.7 420.9 438.6 453.9 469.7 483.8 -- 3.7%
y/y% -- -- -- (1.6%) 16.1% 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Other TD&A Revenues -- -- 230.5 231.5 319.6 359.9 365.1 383.5 416.7 463.3 516.4 -- 7.5%
y/y% -- -- -- 0.4% 38.1% 12.6% 1.4% 5.0% 8.7% 11.2% 11.5%
TD&A Revenues 525.3 547.0 570.1 565.7 707.5 762.6 786.0 822.1 870.6 933.0 1,000.2 7.7% 5.6%
y/y% -- 4.1% 4.2% (0.8%) 25.1% 7.8% 3.1% 4.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2%
Corporate & Other 37.1 37.0 46.5 12.7 (21.6) (7.8) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) -- --
Consolidated Revenues 1,382.5 1,485.0 1,690.6 1,861.9 2,370.5 2,456.3 2,366.4 2,398.5 2,507.3 2,690.5 2,893.5 12.2% 3.3%
y/y% -- 7.4% 13.8% 10.1% 27.3% 3.6% (3.7%) 1.4% 4.5% 7.3% 7.5%
LTS EBITDA Contribution 243.8 238.6 265.9 324.3 406.9 417.5 400.0 402.5 428.0 475.6 528.9 11.4% 4.8%
margin 29.7% 26.5% 24.8% 25.3% 24.2% 24.5% 25.2% 25.5% 26.1% 27.0% 27.9%
y/y% -- (2.1%) 11.4% 22.0% 25.5% 2.6% (4.2%) 0.6% 6.3% 11.1% 11.2%
TD&A EBITDA Contribution 232.6 249.1 260.3 254.4 303.8 315.0 318.2 331.3 354.2 388.0 424.9 6.3% 6.2%
margin 44.3% 45.5% 45.7% 45.0% 42.9% 41.3% 40.5% 40.3% 40.7% 41.6% 42.5%
y/y% -- 7.1% 4.5% (2.3%) 19.4% 3.7% 1.0% 4.1% 6.9% 9.5% 9.5%
Corporate / Overhead (45.8) (44.0) (28.0) (54.1) (71.7) (79.8) (83.8) (88.0) (92.4) (97.0) (101.9) 11.8% 5.0%
Consolidated EBITDA 430.6 443.7 498.3 524.6 639.1 652.7 634.3 645.8 689.7 766.5 851.9 8.7% 5.5%
margin 31.1% 29.9% 29.5% 28.2% 27.0% 26.6% 26.8% 26.9% 27.5% 28.5% 29.4%
y/y% -- 3.0% 12.3% 5.3% 21.8% 2.1% (2.8%) 1.8% 6.8% 11.1% 11.1%
Capex 92.5 70.2 70.3 62.3 98.8 107.5 112.9 118.5 124.4 130.7 137.2 3.1% 5.0%
% revenues 6.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7%
5
Agenda
• Snapshot of Business
6
Market Share Analysis
Addressable Originations Foreclosure Starts Loans (Mtg+HELOCs)
2010 2015 2010 2015 2010 2015
• LPS holds 25-50% market share across its LPS 916 931 589 611 29 31
various end markets. 5-Year CAGR 0.3% 0.7% 1.6%
• The underwriting case assumes modest LPS Market Share 19.9% 20.0% 27.1% 30.0% 42.0% 51.3%
share gain. Competitors 3,677 3,723 1,583 1,426 40 30
• The rise in the mix of centralized Addressable Market 4,593 4,654 2,172 2,037 69 61
refinancing volumes will cause the share of 5-Year CAGR 0.3% (1.3%) (2.4%)
LPS’ market to increase.
100%
90%
100%
Refis -
80%
90% Decentralized
Refis - 70%
80% Decentralized Refis -
Centralized
70% 60%
60%
Refis - 50%
50% Centralized
Addressable 40%
40% Mortgage
Originations
market
30% (Purchase) 30%
Mortgage
20% Originations
(Purchase) 20%
10%
0% 10%
2010 2015
0%
2010 2015 2010 2015 2010 2015
Originations Foreclosures Loans
7
End Market Analysis – Originations
• Purchase originations are forecasted to grow ~6%+ over the next five years (population growth + moving + % of homes purchased with
mortgages), while we assume draconian volumes in the refinancing market (-17.5% CAGR).
• On a blended basis, end market volumes are effectively flat over the next five years.
25,000
Refinancing Originations
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
4,500
Starts Inventory
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Current 30-60 Days Delinquent Seriously Delinquent Foreclosures in Process Completed Foreclosures No Longer in Port / Paid Off
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008 2009 2010 (1H)
Source: OCC Data (only represents data for national banks and lenders--does not represent the whole market)
10
Agenda
• Snapshot of Business
11
Loan Transaction Services – Revenue Drivers
• Revenues from foreclosures and originations closely follow industry trends.
$180
600,000 $300
2.5
$160
500,000 $250
$140
2.0
$120
400,000 $200
1.5 $100
300,000 $150
$80
1.0
200,000 $100 $60
- $- 0.0 $-
Q3_ 20 6
06
Q1_ 20 6
06
Q3_ 20 7
07
Q1_ 20 7
07
Q3_ 20 8
08
Q1_ 20 8
08
Q3_ 20 9
Q4_ 20 9
Q1_ 20 9
09
Q3_ 20 0
_2 10
0
Q2 007
Q3 007
_2 7
Q1 007
Q2 008
Q3 008
Q4 008
_2 8
Q2 009
Q3 009
Q4 009
Q1 009
_2 0
Q3 010
0
0
0
0
0
01
Q4 00
Q1 00
Q2 01
01
Q2_ 20
Q4 20
Q2 20
Q4 20
Q2 20
Q4 20
Q2 20
Q2 20
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_2
_
_
Q1
Q1
12
Loan Transaction Services – Cost Structure
• While foreclosures have a lower margin structure, gross profit dollars earned are 2x that of originations.
$2,000 Foreclosures,
$1,800
$1,800
$1,600
Originations Foreclosures Variance
$1,400 Revenue per Transaction $ 700 $ 1,800 2.6 x
Volume Mix 60.8% 39.2%
$1,200
Cost of Revenue per Transaction $ 439 $ 1,301 3.0 x
$1,000 % of revenues 62.8% 72.3%
Originations,
$800 $700 Gross Profit per Transaction $ 261 $ 499 1.9 x
Foreclosures, margin 37.2% 27.7%
$600 $499
$400 Originations,
$261
$200
$-
Revenue per Transaction Gross Profit per Transaction
13
Transaction, Data & Analytics (Software Solutions)
• The TD&A economic model is highly cash generative—with a significant mix of fixed costs like other software companies.
2010
2010
Loans on Files 28.6
Total TD&A Revenues $ 762.6
Revenue per Loan $ 14.10
Revenue Contribution $ 402.7
Fixed Costs $ 335.7
Foreclosure Filings 0.589 % of total 75.0%
Fee per Referral $ 150
Revenue Contribution $ 88.5 Variable Costs $ 111.9
% of TDA Revenues 14.7%
Total Transactions (originations + foreclosures) 1.505
Other TD&A Revenue per Transaction $ 180 Cash Costs $ 447.6
Revenue Contribution $ 271.5 % of TDA Revenues 58.7%
55,000
Mortgage Stock (before HELOCs)
45,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
14
Credit Analysis
• Robust free cash flow generation will continue to help the Company de-lever.
Fiscal Year Ending December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Consolidated EBITDA 639.1 652.7 634.3 645.8 689.7 766.5 851.9
Less: Cash Interest (80.6) (71.0) (51.7) (51.3) (45.7) (34.6) (28.4)
Less: Cash Taxes (160.0) (164.6) (159.7) (161.9) (176.7) (204.4) (233.3)
Less: Capex (98.8) (107.5) (112.9) (118.5) (124.4) (130.7) (137.2)
Less: Increase in NWC 49.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF 349.2 309.6 310.0 314.2 343.0 396.8 452.9
Legal Liabilities (50.0)
Term Loan Maturities / Amortization (145.1) (145.1) (592.1) - -
Revolver Paydown - - - (283.6) -
Dividend (35.47) (34.30) (34.46) (34.90) (33.56)
FCF Used for Share Repurchase (129.4) (84.8) - (78.3) (419.4)
15
Agenda
• Snapshot of Business
16
Normalized Earnings Power
Avg. Since 1990
All-In Ex '00-'07 Normalized
Current Housi ng Stock 131,000 131,000 131,000
Originations
Total Originations - % of stock 8.7% 6.8% 6.8%
Foreclosures
Deli nquencies Entering Forecl osure % 67.2% 67.6% 67.2%
LPS for ~6x mid-cycle earnings.
LPS Market Share 27.1% 27.1% 27.1%
Revenue per Foreclosure $ 1,800 $ 1,800 $ 1,800
• As the earnings of LPS flex up
Foreclosure Revenues $ 1,075 $ 787 $ 782
towards mid-cycle earnings, we Foreclosure Gross Margin 27.7% 27.7% 27.7%
should see significant flow- Foreclosure Profi ts $ 298 $ 218 $ 217
Corporate $ (8)
TEV / EBITDA
Normal ized EBITDA $ 751 4.8 x
Less: D&A $ (98)
Less: Interest $ (71)
PBT $ 582
Less: Taxes @ 34% $ (198)
Net Income $ 384
Share Count 88.7 PE
Normal ized EPS $ 4.34 6.0 x 17
Legal Liabilities Analysis
• Our base case assumes $50mm of legal liabilities that need to be funded.
Base/
Base/ Downside
Potential Downside Weighted
Case Complaint Summary Status $ Impact Probability Impact
Elizabeth Foster, et Challenges to the securitization of Dismissed $0 0%/0% $0/ $0
al vs. MERS, loans, assignment of mortgages, and 02/03/2011
GMAC, LPS, et al. other actions not generally related to
LPS’s business
Knippel vs. Saxon Unspecified violations of the Fair Debt Dismissed with $0 0%/0% $0/ $0
Mortgage Services, Collection Practices Act, deceptive prejudice 01/2011
LPS, et al. trade practices, and unlawful fee
splitting
Thorne vs. Class action alleging that LPS engaged Filed a motion for $50M 10%/30% $5M/ $15M
Prommis Solutions in unlawful fee splitting with the summary judgment
Holding attorneys representing the creditor in seeking to dismiss
Corporation, LPS, the bankruptcy matter the complaint
et al.
Securities Class Seeks damages for alleged violations Still pending; similar $400M 5%/10 % $20M/ $40M
Action Litigation of federal securities laws in connection suit has been filed
(St. Clair Shores with LPS’s disclosure relating to its and LPS’s with
Retirement System default operations pending court request
et al vs. LPS to consolidated them
Shareholder The complaint seeks recovery on Still pending; LPS $100M 10%/20% $10M/ $20M
Derivative behalf of the Company for damages has filed a motion to
Litigation (Int‘l from certain directors for purported dismiss the case on
Brotherhood of violations of fiduciary duties and 02/08/2011
Electrical breaches of good faith in connection
Workers) with LPS’s default operations.
FDIC vs. LPS1 The FDIC, as Recevier for Washington Still pending; LPS $150M 10%/25% $15M/ $35M
Mutual Bank, alleging losses as a believes there is no
result of LPS’s alleged breach of basis in the claim and
contract and gross negligence with is defending itself.
respect to certain services.
Total $50M/ $110M
18
Returns Scenario Fan – LPS offers asymmetric risk-reward
Assume Exit at Dec-2015 Downside Base Upside
Target Stock Price @ 2015 Exit $ 24.33 $ 57.96 $ 115.25
Cumulative Dividends $ 1.90 $1.90 $ 1.90
Total Value $ 26.23 $ 59.86 $ 117.15
IRR @ 2015 Exit 0.7% 20.2% 39.2%
Exit Multiple 8.0 x 10.0 x 15.0 x
Legal/Regulatory Impact
Legal Liability / Settlement Costs $ 210 $ 50 $ -
Components of Return
Unlevered FCF Yield 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Profit Growth (5.4%) 5.8% 11.5%
Multiple Expansion (0.6%) 1.1% 9.9%
Unlevered IRR 4.0% 16.8% 31.3%
Impact of Leverage, Dividend and Buybacks (3.8%) 3.4% 7.9%
IRR 0.2% 20.2% 39.2%
9.0x 16.0x
8.0x
14.0x
Avg = 6.9x
7.0x
12.0x Avg = 11.7x
6.0x
10.0x
5.0x
4.0x 8.0x
3.0x 6.0x
2.0x 4.0x
1.0x
2.0x
0.0x
0.0x
4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
Source: Capital IQ
20
Public Comps
Source: CapitalIQ
21
Due Diligence Road Map
• Analysis of industry data (MBA, OCC, Amherst Associates, • Objective: Assess management quality and understand
Realty Track) future capital allocation decisions (repurchase, dividends,
acquisitions)
• Court Dockets from Kentucky state court and Federal • Objective: Refine legal liability costs
bankruptcy court of Mississippi
• Interview board members / private equity investors from
Great Hill Partners, the owner of Prommis Solutions
• John Walsh’s (OCC) congressional testimony to the Financial • Objective: Understand class action strategies
Services Committee within the House of Representatives
• Interview lawyers and paralegals at participating firms and
meet with Lieff Cabraser to understand internal analysis
• Conversation with Keith Hennessy, current member of the • Objective: Validate customer value proposition of LPS
Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and former Senior through legal woes (i.e. looking forward)
Economic Advisor to President George W. Bush
• Interview key decision makers at Wells Fargo and JPM
• Conversation with Deborah Hensler, SLS Professor and • Continue to build contacts with regulators and politicians
expert on dispute resolution, litigation, class actions and
mass tort liability (also a former political scientist and public
policy analyst)
22
Origination Projections (Purchase + Refis)
Projections
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Population 301,123 304,047 307,000 310,070 313,171 316,302 319,465 322,660 325,887
Population Growth - Number 2,896 2,924 2,953 3,070 3,101 3,132 3,163 3,195 3,227
Population Growth - % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
People per Household 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
New House Sales Absorption 1,053 1,063 1,074 1,116 1,128 1,139 1,150 1,162 1,173
Existing Home Sales 5,652 4,913 5,156 4,860 4,725 4,716 4,711 4,827 4,943
New Home Sales 776 485 375 318 363 418 474 545 620
Total Home Purchases 6,428 5,398 5,531 5,178 5,088 5,135 5,185 5,372 5,562
% of New Home Sales 12.1% 9.0% 6.8% 6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 9.1% 10.1% 11.1%
Implied Purchases from Churn (Moving)* 5,375 4,335 4,457 4,062 3,961 3,996 4,035 4,210 4,389
Churn Rate 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%
Housing Stock 128,203 129,158 130,112 131,000 132,025 133,190 134,499 135,820 137,155
YoY Growth 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Mortgage Originations (Purchase) 5,236 3,508 3,338 2,861 2,812 2,837 3,124 3,506 3,908
% of Home Purchases with Mortgage 81.5% 65.0% 60.4% 55.3% 55.3% 55.3% 60.3% 65.3% 70.3%
YoY Growth (20.2%) (33.0%) (4.8%) (14.3%) (1.7%) 0.9% 10.1% 12.2% 11.5%
Refinancing Originations 5,123 3,584 6,054 4,329 2,087 1,410 1,121 1,390 1,658
YoY Growth (11.1%) (30.0%) 68.9% (28.5%) (51.8%) (32.4%) (20.5%) 23.9% 19.3%
Total Originations 10,359 7,092 9,393 7,190 4,898 4,247 4,246 4,895 5,566
YoY Growth (16.0%) (31.5%) 32.4% (23.5%) (31.9%) (13.3%) (0.0%) 15.3% 13.7%
Total Addressable Originations 5,667 4,593 3,667 3,429 3,607 4,117 4,654
YoY Growth (19.0%) (20.2%) (6.5%) 5.2% 14.2% 13.0%
LPS LFS Revenues $ 601 $ 432 $ 547 $ 641 $ 530 $ 513 $ 558 $ 658 $ 768
YoY Growth (28.2%) 26.8% 17.1% (17.2%) (3.2%) 8.7% 17.9% 16.6%
Revenue per Origination $ 650 $ 700 $ 725 $ 750 $ 775 $ 800 $ 825
YoY Growth 7.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Page 1 of 7
Foreclosure Projections
Projections
Mortgage Stock 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e
BoP 43,482 45,988 45,396 44,426 43,427 42,227 41,098 40,039 39,177
New Home Sales 776 485 375 318 363 418 474 545 620
Existing Home Sales 5,652 4,913 5,156 4,860 4,725 4,716 4,711 4,827 4,943
Subtractions* (3,922) (5,990) (6,501) (6,177) (6,288) (6,264) (6,244) (6,233) (6,231)
EoP 45,988 45,396 44,426 43,427 42,227 41,098 40,039 39,177 38,508
Y/Y% 5.8% (1.3%) (2.1%) (2.2%) (2.8%) (2.7%) (2.6%) (2.2%) (1.7%)
Non FC Exits 3,064 4,625 4,646 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500
Delinquency Attribution
Good Standing 43,086 41,478 39,788 39,839 38,999 38,165 37,344 36,676 36,159
Non-Serious Delinquent 1,237 1,058 342 (237) (231) (225) (219) (214) (211)
Seriously Delinquent 1,665 2,860 4,296 3,825 3,458 3,157 2,913 2,716 2,559
Total Mortgage Stock, EoP 45,988 45,396 44,426 43,427 42,227 41,098 40,039 39,177 38,508
Non-Serious Delinquent % 2.7% 2.3% 0.8% (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%) (0.5%)
Seriously Delinquent % 3.6% 6.3% 9.7% 8.8% 8.2% 7.7% 7.3% 6.9% 6.6%
New Delinquencies 1,983 3,119 3,828 1,701 1,737 1,774 1,808 1,842 1,881
% of Prior Period Mortgage Stock 4.6% 6.8% 8.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8%
Foreclosures (1,279) (1,924) (2,392) (2,172) (2,104) (2,075) (2,052) (2,039) (2,037)
YoY Growth 61.6% 50.4% 24.3% (9.2%) (3.1%) (1.4%) (1.1%) (0.6%) (0.1%)
% or Prior Year Ser Del 133.1% 115.6% 83.6% 50.6% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 75.0%
Net Delinquencies 704 1,195 1,436 (471) (367) (302) (244) (197) (156)
Foreclosure Stock
BoP 517 938 1,498 2,035 2,420 2,736 3,047 3,355 3,661
Starts 1,279 1,924 2,392 2,172 2,104 2,075 2,052 2,039 2,037
Exits (858) (1,364) (1,855) (1,786) (1,788) (1,764) (1,744) (1,733) (1,731)
EoP 938 1,498 2,035 2,420 2,736 3,047 3,355 3,661 3,967
Exits % of Starts 67.1% 70.9% 77.6% 82.2% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Starts YoY Growth 61.6% 50.4% 24.3% (9.2%) (3.1%) (1.4%) (1.1%) (0.6%) (0.1%)
LPS Foreclosure Starts 632 589 583 587 592 600 611
Market Share 26.4% 27.1% 27.7% 28.3% 28.9% 29.4% 30.0%
LPS DS Revenues $ 473 $ 852 $ 1,137 $ 1,061 $ 1,055 $ 1,068 $ 1,083 $ 1,104 $ 1,130
YoY Growth 80.1% 33.5% (6.7%) (0.5%) 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4%
Revenue per Foreclosure Pre-Regulatory Impact $ 1,800 $ 1,800 $ 1,810 $ 1,820 $ 1,830 $ 1,840 $ 1,850
Regulatory Impact / Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pro Forma Revenue per Foreclosure $ 1,800 $ 1,800 $ 1,810 $ 1,820 $ 1,830 $ 1,840 $ 1,850
YoY Growth 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Page 2 of 7
Loan Transaction Services
Projections
Fiscal Year Ending December 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 07-10 10-15
Originations (Refis + Purchase) 0.842 0.916 0.732 0.685 0.720 0.823 0.931 0.3%
y/y% 8.7% (20.1%) (6.4%) 5.2% 14.2% 13.1%
Revenue per Origination $ 650 $ 700 $ 725 $ 750 $ 775 $ 800 $ 825 3.3%
y/y% 7.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%
Loan Facilitation Services Revenues 600.9 431.7 547.3 640.9 530.4 513.4 558.3 658.3 767.9 2.2% 3.7%
y/y% (28.2%) 26.8% 17.1% (17.2%) (3.2%) 8.7% 17.9% 16.6%
Foreclosure Filings 0.632 0.589 0.583 0.587 0.592 0.600 0.611 0.7%
y/y% (6.7%) (1.1%) 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8%
Revenue per Foreclosure Start $ 1,800 $ 1,800 $ 1,810 $ 1,820 $ 1,830 $ 1,840 $ 1,850 0.5%
y/y% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Default Services Revenues 473.0 851.8 1,137.3 1,060.6 1,055.0 1,068.0 1,083.4 1,104.1 1,130.4 30.9% 1.3%
y/y% 80.1% 33.5% (6.7%) (0.5%) 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4%
LTS Revenues 1,073.9 1,283.5 1,684.6 1,701.5 1,585.3 1,581.4 1,641.7 1,762.5 1,898.3 16.6% 2.2%
y/y% 19.5% 31.3% 1.0% (6.8%) (0.3%) 3.8% 7.4% 7.7%
Volume Analysis
Originations 0.842 0.916 0.732 0.685 0.720 0.823 0.931 0.3%
% of total 57.1% 60.8% 55.7% 53.8% 54.9% 57.8% 60.4%
Foreclosures 0.632 0.589 0.583 0.587 0.592 0.600 0.611 0.7%
% of total 42.9% 39.2% 44.3% 46.2% 45.1% 42.2% 39.6%
Total Transactions 1.474 1.505 1.314 1.271 1.312 1.423 1.542 0.5%
Revenue per Transaction $ 1,143 $ 1,131 $ 1,206 $ 1,244 $ 1,251 $ 1,239 $ 1,231 1.7%
Origination Gross Profit 191.6 238.7 189.2 186.2 205.3 245.0 288.7 3.9%
margin 35.0% 37.2% 35.7% 36.3% 36.8% 37.2% 37.6%
GP per Origination $ 228 $ 261 $ 259 $ 272 $ 285 $ 298 $ 310 3.5%
y/y% 14.6% (0.8%) 5.2% 10.2% 15.1% 19.9%
Foreclosure Gross Profit 323.1 294.2 305.0 312.9 321.6 332.0 344.2 3.2%
margin 28.4% 27.7% 28.9% 29.3% 29.7% 30.1% 30.4%
GP per Foreclosure $ 511 $ 499 $ 523 $ 533 $ 543 $ 553 $ 563 2.4%
y/y% (2.4%) 4.8% (0.5%) (0.6%) 13.4% 7.6%
Total Gross Profit 360.8 429.6 514.7 532.9 494.2 499.1 526.9 577.0 632.9 13.9% 3.5%
margin 30.6% 31.3% 31.2% 31.6% 32.1% 32.7% 33.3%
GP per Transaction $ 349 $ 354 $ 376 $ 393 $ 401 $ 405 $ 410 3.0%
y/y% 1.4% 6.2% 2.9% 4.0% 12.6% 9.2%
SG&A (Primariliy Fixed Costs) 94.9 105.3 107.8 94.2 94.2 96.6 99.0 101.5 104.0 (0.2%) 2.0%
y/y% 11.0% 2.3% (12.6%) 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
EBITDA Contribution 265.9 324.3 406.9 417.5 400.0 402.5 428.0 475.6 528.9 16.2% 4.8%
margin 24.8% 25.3% 24.2% 24.5% 25.2% 25.5% 26.1% 27.0% 27.9%
y/y% 22.0% 25.5% 2.6% (4.2%) 0.6% 6.3% 11.1% 11.2%
Page 3 of 7
Transaction, Data & Analytics
Projections
Fiscal Year Ending December 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 07-10 10-15
Mortgage Stock, EoP 46.0 45.4 44.4 43.4 42.2 41.1 40.0 39.2 38.5 (2.4%)
HELOCs, EoP 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.9 22.5 (2.4%)
% of Mortgage Stock 58.5% 58.5% 58.5% 58.5% 58.5% 58.5% 58.5%
LPS Loans on File, EoP 26.6 29.6 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 0.6%
LPS Market Share 58.6% 66.6% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 72.0%
LPS HELOCs on File, EoP - - 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.6 12.5%
LPS Market Share 7.9% 9.9% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Total Library 26.6 29.6 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.3 1.6%
Average Balance 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.2 1.8%
Revenue per Loan $ 13.79 $ 14.10 $ 14.38 $ 14.75 $ 15.00 $ 15.25 $ 15.50 1.9%
y/y% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
Mortgage Processing Revenues 339.7 334.2 387.9 402.7 420.9 438.6 453.9 469.7 483.8 5.8% 3.7%
y/y% (1.6%) 16.1% 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Foreclosure Filings 0.632 0.589 0.583 0.587 0.592 0.600 0.611 0.7%
Fee per Referral $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 $ 150 (0.0%)
Desktop Revenues 94.8 88.5 87.4 88.0 88.8 90.0 91.7 0.7%
Pro Forma Desktop Revenues 94.8 88.5 87.4 88.0 88.8 90.0 91.7 0.7%
y/y% (6.7%) (1.2%) 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8%
Other Non Desktop Revenues 224.8 271.5 277.7 295.5 327.9 373.3 424.7 9.4%
y/y% 20.7% 2.3% 6.4% 11.0% 13.8% 13.8%
Revenue per Transaction $ 153 $ 180 $ 211 $ 232 $ 250 $ 262 $ 275 8.8%
y/y% 18.3% 17.1% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Total Transactions (originations + foreclosures) 1.474 1.505 1.314 1.271 1.312 1.423 1.542 0.5%
y/y% 2.1% (12.7%) (3.3%) 3.2% 8.4% 8.4%
Other TD&A Revenues (incl Desktop) 230.5 231.5 319.6 359.9 365.1 383.5 416.7 463.3 516.4 16.0% 7.5%
y/y% 0.4% 38.1% 12.6% 1.4% 5.0% 8.7% 11.2% 11.5%
TD&A Revenues 570.1 565.7 707.5 762.6 786.0 822.1 870.6 933.0 1,000.2 10.2% 5.6%
y/y% (0.8%) 25.1% 7.8% 3.1% 4.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2%
EBITDA Contribution 260.3 254.4 303.8 315.0 318.2 331.3 354.2 388.0 424.9 6.6% 6.2%
margin 45.0% 42.9% 41.3% 40.5% 40.3% 40.7% 41.6% 42.5%
y/y% (2.3%) 19.4% 3.7% 1.0% 4.1% 6.9% 9.5% 9.5%
Page 4 of 7
Returns Model GSB (26-May-2011)
Operating Model
Fiscal Year Ending December 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10-15
Loan Facilitation Services 431.7 547.3 640.9 530.4 513.4 558.3 658.3 767.9 3.7%
y/y% (28.2%) 26.8% 17.1% (17.2%) (3.2%) 8.7% 17.9% 16.6%
Default Services 851.8 1,137.3 1,060.6 1,055.0 1,068.0 1,083.4 1,104.1 1,130.4 1.3%
y/y% 80.1% 33.5% (6.7%) (0.5%) 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4%
Loan Transaction Services Revenues 1,283.5 1,684.6 1,701.5 1,585.3 1,581.4 1,641.7 1,762.5 1,898.3 2.2%
y/y% 19.5% 31.2% 1.0% (6.8%) (0.3%) 3.8% 7.4% 7.7%
Mortgage Processing Revenues 334.2 387.9 402.7 420.9 438.6 453.9 469.7 483.8 3.7%
y/y% (1.6%) 16.1% 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Other TD&A Revenues 231.5 319.6 359.9 365.1 383.5 416.7 463.3 516.4 7.5%
y/y% 0.4% 38.1% 12.6% 1.4% 5.0% 8.7% 11.2% 11.5%
TD&A Revenues 565.7 707.5 762.6 786.0 822.1 870.6 933.0 1,000.2 5.6%
y/y% (0.8%) 25.1% 7.8% 3.1% 4.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2%
Corporate & Other 12.7 (21.6) (7.8) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) --
Consolidated Revenues 1,861.9 2,370.5 2,456.3 2,366.4 2,398.5 2,507.3 2,690.5 2,893.5 3.3%
y/y% 10.1% 27.3% 3.6% (3.7%) 1.4% 4.5% 7.3% 7.5%
LTS EBITDA Contribution 324.3 406.9 417.5 400.0 402.5 428.0 475.6 528.9 4.8%
margin 25.3% 24.2% 24.5% 25.2% 25.5% 26.1% 27.0% 27.9%
y/y% 22.0% 25.5% 2.6% (4.2%) 0.6% 6.3% 11.1% 11.2%
TD&A EBITDA Contribution 254.4 303.8 315.0 318.2 331.3 354.2 388.0 424.9 6.2%
margin 45.0% 42.9% 41.3% 40.5% 40.3% 40.7% 41.6% 42.5%
y/y% (2.3%) 19.4% 3.7% 1.0% 4.1% 6.9% 9.5% 9.5%
Corporate / Overhead (54.1) (71.7) (79.8) (83.8) (88.0) (92.4) (97.0) (101.9) 5.0%
Consolidated EBITDA 524.6 639.1 652.7 634.3 645.8 689.7 766.5 851.9 5.5%
margin 28.2% 27.0% 26.6% 26.8% 26.9% 27.5% 28.5% 29.4%
y/y% 5.3% 21.8% 2.1% (2.8%) 1.8% 6.8% 11.1% 11.1%
Less: D&A 97.9 97.5 112.9 118.5 124.4 130.7 137.2 7.1%
EBIT 541.2 555.2 521.4 527.3 565.3 635.9 714.7 5.2%
Less: Net Interest 80.6 71.0 51.7 51.3 45.7 34.6 28.4 (16.7%)
EBT 460.6 484.2 469.7 476.0 519.6 601.2 686.3 7.2%
Less: Cash Taxes 160.0 164.6 159.7 161.9 176.7 204.4 233.3 7.2%
Net Income 300.6 319.6 310.0 314.2 343.0 396.8 452.9 7.2%
y/y% 6.3% (3.0%) 1.4% 9.2% 15.7% 14.1%
Memo - Cash Tax Rate 34.7% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%
Page 5 of 7
Returns Model GSB (26-May-2011)
Fiscal Year Ending December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10-15
Share Calc
Basic Shares Strike Price No Opns 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.9
Existing Mgmt Options $32.93 7.8 - - 0.7 2.1 3.0 3.3
2011 Options 2.0% $28.19 1.8 - 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9
2012 Options 2.0% $33.39 1.7 - - 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7
2013 Options 2.0% $40.94 1.7 - - - 0.2 0.4 0.5
2014 Options 2.0% $49.73 1.7 - - - - 0.1 0.2
2015 Options 2.0% $55.97 1.7 - - - - - 0.1
Cumulative Buybacks - (4.6) (7.1) (7.1) (8.7) (16.2)
Diluted Share Count 90.9 86.4 85.1 87.2 87.3 80.5 (2.4%)
Avg Share Count 96.2 94.0 88.7 85.8 86.1 87.3 83.9 (2.2%)
Diluted EPS $ 3.12 $ 3.40 $ 3.50 $ 3.66 $ 3.98 $ 4.55 $ 5.40 9.7%
y/y% 8.8% 2.8% 4.8% 8.7% 14.2% 18.7%
Page 6 of 7
Returns Model GSB (26-May-2011)
LIBOR (Note: All SWAPs have rolled off) 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
10-Year Treasury Yield 3.20% 3.50% 4.20% 4.50% 4.50%
Page 7 of 7