Another Defection in Libya, Another Bad Sign for Gadhafi

June 2, 2011 | 1219 GMT

MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images

Libyan Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem at a news conference in Tripoli on March 19
Summary

Libyan Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem said June 1 that he has left Libyan leader Moammar
Gadhafi’s regime. Ghanem’s departure is not by itself an event that could bring down the
Libyan government. However, it is the latest in a series of bad signs for the regime —
including NATO’s extension of its commitment to Operation Unified Protector — and
could trigger other defections.

Analysis

Libyan Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem announced June 1 in Rome that he had defected from
Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. Ghanem had not been heard from since the initial rumor of his
departure was reported May 16. The defection is the latest in a series of bad signs for the
sustainability of the Gadhafi regime.

Though it was clear even before Ghanem’s announcement that the Libyan regime was in a
precarious position, the news of his defection only supports the argument that Libya may be
on the verge of becoming the first instance of actual regime change (or regime collapse)
since the start of the so-called Arab Spring. No single event has led Gadhafi to this point; it
is the cumulative effect of an ongoing NATO air campaign that began March 19, a steady
stream of defections (both political and military, inside and outside Libya) since February,
and deteriorating economic conditions in government-controlled Libya brought about by
sanctions on the country. The Libyan army has been unable to pacify the predominantly
Berber guerrillas fighting with inferior weaponry in the Nafusa Mountains, and it has been
unable to pacify rebels in Misurata. There are now reports of stirrings of rebellion in two
other somewhat significant coastal population centers in the west — Zlitan and Al Khums
— and a reported protest in the Souq al-Juma neighborhood in Tripoli on May 30. Even if
these recent reports are fictitious or simply exaggerations by agents of the opposition,
Gadhafi still has received a string of negative news for the past several weeks.

Ghanem’s defection will not eventually be seen as the critical event that led to the Gadhafi
regime’s downfall; rather, it is an indication that Gadhafi’s power structure could be
crumbling. High-level defections can create a cycle in which no one wants to be the last one
standing, and Ghanem’s departure could lead to other defections. Though the oil minister
— who was also chairman of the state-owned National Oil Corporation — is now the
highest-profile Gadhafi cohort to abandon the regime, it is debatable whether he could
provide the West with intelligence that would outweigh the information provided by former
Libyan intelligence chief Moussa Koussa, who defected in late March. (Koussa, though a
longtime fixture in Tripoli, had been somewhat sidelined politically by Gadhafi in recent
years).

The significance of Ghanem’s defection lies more in the general trend of negative news for
Gadhafi. The best-case scenario for the Libyan leader at this point is partition, a plausible
outcome of the Libyan conflict should he be able to hang on to his core territory for a few
more months. The NATO no-fly zone has halted major armored advances across the desert
buffer between the east and the west, and the use of technicals and lighter transports (which
are harder to identify as enemy targets from the air) has been problematic.

For Gadhafi to retake the east, the countries leading the NATO airstrikes would have to
abandon the mission — and NATO announced June 1 that it was renewing its commitment
to Operation Unified Protector through at least Sept. 27 and could extend it further if
needed. Only the development of a serious anti-war movement in Europe and/or the United
States that places political pressure on leaders in Washington, Paris, London and Rome to
end the campaign will bring Gadhafi any respite (and even this would be unlikely to have
much effect over such a short time period). That has not happened yet, so NATO’s strategy
has been to wait and hope Gadhafi’s regime simply collapses from within. The recent
insertion of French and British combat helicopters — and the reported presence of British
special forces on the ground, rumored plans by the United Kingdom to begin dropping
bunker-busting munitions and hints that NATO airstrikes are specifically targeting Gadhafi
— increases the pressure on the Libyan leader but does not represent a full-blown effort to
finish the job.

Since May 29, there has been yet another wave of media reports hinting that Gadhafi is
prepared to negotiate an exit from the country in exchange for immunity from prosecution.
This could be the case, but there are no signals that this latest round of speculation is any
truer than those before it. Gadhafi has remained opposed to any sort of exile option. The
recent International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest has, if anything, only
decreased the chances of his trusting an offer of exile abroad.

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us

© Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.