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Market

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Precious Metals Drop On Dollar Recovery

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Economic Data
Date
Tue Jun 14

Fundamental Market Overview

Forecast Previous

Time
4:30am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 1:00pm

Currency
USD USD USD USD USD USD

Economic Data
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Core PPI m/m Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks

Market
watch

GOLD POSTS BIGGEST LOSS IN MONTH AS COMMODITIES DROP

125,000 lots, the highest this week but 40 percent below its 30-day average. Volume has been lackluster since last week, with bullion prices largely range bound. Gold could extend its slide if prices fell below key support at its 20-day moving average of $1,524, a level it has held for the past three weeks.

0.3% 0.1% -0.3% 0.2% 0.9%

0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1%

Gold fell almost 1 percent on Friday for its biggest one-day decline in a month, as dollar rally coupled with losses in crude oil and commodities prompted investors to sell ahead of the weekend. Bullion also came under liquidation pressure as Wall Street resumed its slide following weaker Chinese trade data, and the euro tumbled more than 1 percent as fears over Greece's debt returned to the forefront. Spot gold fell to a one-week low at $1,525.74 an ounce and was down 0.7 percent at $1,532.14. The metal was down 0.5 percent for the week, poised to snap a three-week winning streak. Despite Friday's loss, the metal is up 5 percent in the past five weeks on a string of bleak U.S. economic data including a weak jobs report last week. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down $13.50 at $1,529.20, after trading between $1,526.70 and $1,546.50. COMEX gold futures volume was around

Wed Jun 15

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m NAHB Housing Market Index Crude Oil Inventories

0.2% 0.2% 13.7 45.3B 77.2% 0.3% 16

0.2% 0.4% 11.9 24.0B 76.9% 0.0% 16 -4.8M

Market
watch

OIL FALLS ON MORE SAUDI CRUDE, STRONG DOLLAR

draining inventories just when demand is expected to hit a seasonal peak. In its monthly report published Friday, OPEC said world demand for its oil would average 30.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year, much higher than the 28.97 million bpd the 12-member group produced in May. The figures suggest the world will be undersupplied by 1.73 million bpd -- enough to meet demand in an economy the size of France -- if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries does not increase supplies. OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, met in Vienna for the first time this year on Wednesday and for the first time in around a decade failed to make a decision on output policy. Oil prices fell on Friday as top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia began offering more oil to customers, easing worries about supply.

Thu Jun 16

Oil prices fell on Friday on news Saudi Arabia was offering more oil to Asian customers, with additional pressure from a stronger dollar and weak equities. Brent's premium to U.S. crude hit a record high for a second time this week, moving above $19 a barrel, supported by sweet crude production shut in by Libya's conflict and disrupted North Sea production. The dollar index strengthened as the euro fell across the board, and uncertainty about Greece's debt problems and a slowing U.S. economy boosted risk-averse sentiment and pressured dollardenominated oil prices. U.S. stocks fell as China's weak trade data and the Greek debt problems reinforced concerns about slowing economies. The Dow and S&P 500 posted their sixth consecutive weekly loss for the first time since mid-2008. OPEC followed this week's failure to reach an output deal with a forecast world oil supplies would begin to fall short later this year,

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Building Permits Unemployment Claims Current Account Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Natural Gas Storage Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations CB Leading Index m/m

0.55M 421K -126B 0.54M 7.3

0.56M 427K -113B 0.52M 3.9 80B

Market
watch

COPPER ENDS OFF; HITS 2-WEEK LOW ON CHINA IMPORTS

will start buying again this month as inventories are run down. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper shed $117, or 1.3 percent, to close at $8,938 a tonne, down from $9,055 on Thursday. The metal plumbed its lowest since May 25 at $8,901.75 a tonne, with technical pressures picking up after the price broke down below the 200-day moving average, at around $8,933. In New York, the COMEX July contract fell 5.15 cents to $4.0560 per lb, after breaking through its own 200-day moving average at around $4.08. China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products dropped 3 percent in May, after falling 13.7 percent in April because of high inventories. Analysts and traders had expected a slight rise.

Fri Jun 17

7:25pm 7:25pm 7:30pm

74.7

74.3 4.1%

0.3%

-0.3%

Copper fell on Friday to its lowest level since late May after another month of disappointing import statistics from China weighed on sentiment, and left the market to pin its hopes on a June revival. The negative close dragged prices down for a second straight week. From an extended dollar rally versus the euro to easing supply-side threats in Chile to a deteriorating technical picture, further weakness was likely in store for prices in the week ahead. Copper stocks in bonded warehouses in Shanghai are estimated to have fallen by 50 percent or more from above 600,000 tonnes earlier this year as merchants sold the material into China's backward dated market to take advantage of strong prompt prices. On Friday, figures showed that Shanghai copper warehouse stocks fell 3.4 percent, or 2,888 tonnes, from a week ago to stand just above 83,000 tonnes. LME copper stocks edged up 75 tonnes to 477,925 tonnes -- their highest since last May. In the United States, inbound shipments of the metal rose for a second straight month in April despite weakness in housing. Copper is used mainly in building construction. Still demand in China, the biggest consumer of copper, remains strong and that consumers

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1593 1565 1547 1536 1518 1508 1480

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold neither sustain on higher levels nor at lower levels. In the coming week 1475$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1520 $ an ounce then above 1551 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1565$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1500$ then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1485$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is technically consolidating on charts. Last week COMEX Silver neither sustain on higher levels nor at lower levels. For the upcoming week 3480$ and 3250$ are the crucial supports and 4000$ and 4250 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 64000 will act as major resistance and 52000 and 50000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4034 3854 3743 3675 3564 3495 3316

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1520 $ an ounce, then above 1551$ it can test the level of 1565 $ an ounce and above 1575$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1500$ and 1460$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1580$ and 1625$ Major support in MCX Gold is 22400 and 22200 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22850 and 23050

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is bullish on charts and still in an upward channel, For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3600$ an ounce, then above 3790$ an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3880$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 109.22 104.52 101.90 99.82 97.20 95.12 90.42

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil neither sustain on higher level nor at lower level. For the coming week 94$ and 88$ will act as major supports and 106.50 $ and 109.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4650 and 4780 and major supports will be 4360 and 4150.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week and closed near to its week low. If next week COMEX Copper sustains below the level of 415 then below the level of 399 Copper can test the level of 392. In MCX Copper below 399 Copper can test the level of 397 if it does not break the level of 415 on the upside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 437.80 423.20 414.40 408.60 399.80 394.00 379.40

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 94 $ a barrel then above 103.5$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 106 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4625 Crude oil can touch the level of 4705 if it sustains above 4360. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 435 and 437 will act as major resistance and 400 and 380 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 425 and 437 and supports would be found at 400 and 380.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5.696 5.223 4.990 4.750 4.517 4.277 3.804

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week but on the last two days it came down. If next week Natural Gas does not sustains above the level of 4.900 $ then below the level of 4.520$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.405 $ and above 4.990 $ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level of 5.090 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 211 in the coming week then it can test the level of 204, if it does not break the level of 222 on the upside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.5000 then above the level of 44.8200 USD/INR can test the level of 44.9800 and below 44.4900 USD/INR can slightly go down and test the level of 44.3900.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.2500 44.9700 44.8400 44.6900 44.5600 44.4100 44.1300

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.8000 and 46.4000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.650 $ will act as major supports and 5.200$ and 5.600$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 225 and 235, supports would be found at 200 and 190.

Weekly Chart

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 5-JUL -11 30-JUN-11 20-JUN-11 27-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

22652 54403 408.7 4504 210.8 110.25 101.35 1026.9 117.7

22670 54888 409.35 4503 212 110.8 101.8 1032 117.9

22786 56280 413.4 4575 223.5 116.75 103.15 1040.9 119.95

22454 54228 400.3 4383 208.5 110.8 100.65 1007.2 116

22545 54447 401.6 4432 213.8 114.25 101.05 1024.3 116.75

115281 357745 569319 843983 177084 92875 82682 264179 21144

-107 44 -7.1 -72 3 4 -0.3 -2.6 -0.95

11077 14747 31432 15901 4520 2573 6714 11955 3590

2588850.47 5899395.53 2300498.00 3759745.12 475021.21 528217.72 419322.98 674336.45 124363.01

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Week : June 13th to 18th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1529.2 3632.7 405.6 99.29 4.757 44.72

% Change
-0.86 0.38 -1.90 -0.93 1.06 -0.22

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
23259.00 59089.00 431.30 4847.33 245.27 125.83 106.62 1091.53 125.47

R2
22927.00 57037.00 418.20 4655.33 230.27 119.88 104.12 1057.83 121.52

R1
22736.00 55742.00 409.90 4543.67 222.03 117.07 102.58 1041.07 119.13

PP
22595.00 54985.00 405.10 4463.33 215.27 113.93 101.62 1024.13 117.57

S1
22404.00 53690.00 396.80 4351.67 207.03 111.12 100.08 1007.37 115.18

S2
22263.00 52933.00 418.97 4271.33 200.27 107.98 99.12 990.43 113.62

S3
21931.00 50881.00 378.90 4079.33 185.27 102.03 96.62 956.73 109.67

Weekly Gainers
Commodity LEAD Expiry Date 30 JUN-11 Closing Price 114.25 213.80 54447 % Change 3.63 1.42 0.08

Weekly Losers
Commodity COPPER CRUDE OIL ALUMINIUM Expiry Date 30 JUN-11 20 JUN-11 30 JUN-11 Closing Price 401.60 4432 116.75 % Change -1.74 -1.60 -0.81

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NATURAL GAS 27 JUN-11 SILVER 05 JUL - 11

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