A Resource To Be Harnessed

Royal Society of Edinburgh
A RESOURCE
The
TO BE HARNESSED
23 January 2004
Report of a Symposium held at the Royal Society of Edinburgh to discuss the implications of changing life expectancy, fiscal, and social environment on the career and life pattern of older professional Workers.
Foreword
The people of the United Kingdom can now expect to lead longer and healthier lives than their forebears and retirement is no longer viewed as a short last chapter of diminished activity and achievement. The trend to early retirement has been accompanied by an increasing desire to develop and maintain an active and fulfilling lifestyle. Far from constituting a burden on society, older professional workers represent a formidable intellectual resource that could contribute increasingly to the quality of life in this country and its wealth creation. The Royal Society of Edinburgh was privileged to host this important symposium, A Resource to be Harnessed, in which individuals drawn from a wide range of organisations and walks of life came together to discuss the implications of demographic, social and economic trends for older professional workers. We are grateful to our Senior Fellows for sparking our interest in holding such a meeting; to the Organising Committee; and above all, to those who participated in the lively debate on the day. The Royal Society of Edinburgh has maintained a consistent interest in our ageing population and has been pleased to act in partnership with others, notably the Lloyds TSB Foundation, in supporting research in all aspects of the ageing process. We remain committed to endeavours that will improve the quality of life for the increasing proportion of older individuals in this country and see A Resource to be Harnessed as an important contribution to our work.
Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT PRSE President, Royal Society of Edinburgh
CONTENTS
1. 2. 3. 4.
Summary and Heads for Discussion ......................................................................................... 3 Context ............................................................................................................................... 4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 7
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A - SYNDICATE DISCUSSIONS ........................................................................................ 9 APPENDIX B - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS ........................................................................................... 12 Government Strategy for Age Diversity in Employment and Over 50s Employment Ms Mary Pattison, Head of Extending Working Life Strategy, Department for Work and Pensions ...................................................................................................................... 12 Case Studies....................................................................................................................... 14 Demographic Influences Dr Harry Burns, Director of Public Health, Greater Glasgow NHS Board ...................................... 14 The Economic Consequences of an Ageing Population Professor Peter Sloane FRSE, Director, WELMERC, University of Wales Swansea .......................... 17 Attitudes to Ageing Professor Tom Kirkwood, Professor of Medicine, Newcastle University ....................................... 20 Charity Challenges Mr Norman Drummond, Chairman Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland ..................................... 22 The Role of Pensions and Savings Mr Tom Ross, President, Faculty of Actuaries .......................................................................... 23 APPENDIX C - SPEAKER BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES ............................................................................. 26 APPENDIX D - PARTICIPATING ORGANISATIONS ............................................................................. 29 APPENDIX E - PARTICIPANTS ....................................................................................................... 30 APPENDIX F - PROGRAMME ........................................................................................................ 32 APPENDIX G - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... 32
A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004
1. SUMMARY AND HEADS FOR DISCUSSION

Legislative, demographic and economic factors, including constraints in the funding of pensions, now make the effective extension of working life both possible, inevitable, and perhaps on appropriate terms, desirable. Cliff edge or brick wall models for retirement are inappropriate and unwarranted from the medical evidence. Life is a continuum and there should be the minimum of arbitrary, prescriptive boundaries. No single pattern emerged as being universally applicable and the collective data available for society in general certainly concealed several important and distinct sub-groups. Professional knowledge workers formed one such group; less constrained by physical or motor skill requirements, and less, or not at all, dependent on state pension provision. This group after extensive training and long experience often possessed skills that remained in significant demand. Their interests were not demanding of resources, but rather could be enabled to contribute both fiscally and in service to the community. Government legislation is now impending and it is appropriate to explore these issues as they affect professional knowledge workers where institutions such as the Royal Society of Edinburgh can offer particular insight. The most important elements for further consideration include: Identifying the changes in expectations and attitudes among professional workers that will follow from current developments and establishing areas of common interest; Defining essential requirements in legislation and regulation to meet concerns in specific professional areas; Reviewing attitudes and machinery for handling issues of professional competency and encouraging the sharing of best practice; and Considering objective and reasonable expectations with regard to career development and progression planning in the light of societys need for professional effectiveness.
The Royal Society of Edinburgh, with its Fellowship drawn from all the knowledge disciplines, is well placed to focus such debate and on the basis of this report now invites interested parties to comment.
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A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium
2.
CONTEXT
There are presently 19 million people aged over 50 in Britain of which 7 million are in some form of employment. This working group includes 70% of those aged 50 to 64 and 9% of those aged over 65. In comparison, 82% of the 25-49 age group are in employment. A difference that represents a loss of some 16 billion annually from the national GDP, including loss of tax revenues and social benefit costs. These rates have been remarkably stable over the years but recently (2003) have shown a small increase for both men and women. This recent trend, however, may still mask a long-term decline in economic activity, since the proportion of men aged 60-64 in employment has fallen from 80% in 1968 to 40% in 1999. International comparisons (Table 1) show that the UK holds a middle position among developed countries, that at least partially reflects the nature of the national social welfare provision. Other measures, for example the employment rates for the 5564 year old group (52.3% for the UK compared with an EU average of 38.8%), confirm this relatively favourable position. However, these central measures for the population as a whole conceal wide variations with respect to gender, social class, employment sector and geography. TABLE 1 - Average age of withdrawal from the labour force in selected countries in 1999. Men Women Canada 62.4 60.8 Germany 60.3 60.1 Italy 58.8 57.9 Japan 68.5 64.7 The Netherlands 60.4 59.8 Sweden 63.7 62.7 UK 62.6 60.4 US 64.6 63.4 Source: OECD Malthusian pessimism in its catastrophic form seems unjustified for Western nations in a post-industrial phase. Increased longevity has been accompanied by a sharp decline in fertility. Although much remains to be debated as to any optimum population strategy, the current stability of overall population figures conceals important changes in the age structure. These changes are likely to have far-reaching consequences and raise concerns as to the ability of the workforce, as currently configured, to support those in retirement. These changes can be most graphically illustrated by population pyramids (Fig. 1), although these might now be more appropriately described as population rectangles. The support ratio, (population 1664) / (population >64), encapsulates the essential feature. For the UK as a whole the ratio is currently 4.1, but by 2050 it is predicted to fall to 2.32.6. For Scotland, with a falling overall population, the ratio will be yet lower, with the problems exacerbated by Scotlands relatively high burden of chronic ill health. Figure 1- Population pyramids US 1970-2030. From contributed paper
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The economic costs of excluding the elderly from the workforce and the changing demography are hard to quantify. Estimates range from 2% of GDP to much higher figures. In an economy where skill shortages are likely to persist, the loss of skilled workers is particularly significant. Market forces, substituting capital for labour, will partially ameliorate these effects. However, human costs associated with poverty, low self-esteem, ill health and social exclusion from the networks associated with employment will be large, as will the linked social costs of unemployment, poor health and inactivity. A number of levers, including economic, legislative, and educational factors and pension regulation, are available and could influence age diversity in the workforce. Pensions are a particularly influential factor. Public policy, with a high rate of marginal taxation associated with a variety of means-tested benefits, and the progressive transfer of risk from employer to employee, would mean that more than two-thirds of pensioners would be eligible for such benefits by 2050. This would be a powerful disincentive to saving, as would the loss of confidence in the stock market and pension products in general. More flexibility in regulation and taxation would be helpful. However, these factors, coupled with the increasing reluctance of employers to sustain occupational pension schemes and the logic of a steadily increasing life expectancy, have an inescapable consequence, namely that future pensioners would not achieve their expectations and aspirations in retirement income. That resource gap would have to be met by other means. Popular perceptions of the aged and the ageing process are substantially misplaced. Ageing is not a pre-programmed, biologically deterministic process, but is substantially influenced by environment and life style and is mediated by a slow accumulation of damage. Fatalism, failure to accept personal responsibility and negative stereotyping of expectations in ageing should be rejected. Life is a continuum. The changes in the demography, from pyramid to rectangle, already means that most people could now anticipate some 20 years of healthy, active life after retirement with an unimpaired intellectual capacity. Current research also suggests that the life span will be further increased, extending the rectangle to yet greater ages. These considerations and their implications have already driven political action. In particular, the European Council Framework Directive 2000/78 concerning Equal Treatment will require the UK government to implement legislation. This legislation will make discrimination on the basis of age unlawful in employment and vocational training. Some exceptions will apply, for example, to the armed forces in Northern Ireland and, in the case of age discrimination if differences in treatment are objectively and reasonably justified, for example, by such means as actuarial calculations. Changes in the present pattern of work and retirement are inevitable. They will be driven by demographic developments, by economic necessity, by individual choice and ability, and by legislation. It is likely that the overall figures available conceal substantial diversity amongst both employers and employees and more information in this respect is needed to inform policy. The briefing session was humanised by three brave individuals who volunteered their own experience of retirement and strikingly revealed the inadequacy of purely statistical data to describe the richness of human experience and the reality of individual choice. From a different perspective, an employer described the developing attitudes to age diversity in his organisation and the benefits he believed accrued to both the organisation and the employee from the consequent diversity of experience and knowledge in his staff. [This summary account is based on the briefing papers presented and discussed at the meeting. These written contributions are included in Appendix B]
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3. DISCUSSION
The invited participants, drawn from a wide range of groups with interests in this area, were formed into discussion syndicates. Each syndicate then tackled a specific question framed in the light of the context already established by the briefing papers. Syndicates were united as to the importance of the issues under discussion and on the dearth of adequate information about the group of professional workers that were of particular concern to this meeting. The specific questions tackled and the conclusions of the syndicates, presented in Appendix A, informed the general discussion that followed. When we talk of tomorrow the Gods laugh! This is an appropriate warning as to the limitations of debate and intellectual analysis in a field subject, not only to the interplay of individual preference, market and demographic forces, but also to regulation by local, national and European governments. Entrenched attitudes are to be expected, along with the simultaneous advance of orthogonal views; for example, in the desire to leave head-room for younger people without corresponding loss of status or responsibility for older staff. Some saw themselves as belonging to a golden generation with subsequent generations destined to toil indefinitely - but perhaps that was no more than a comfort in old age. Nevertheless, some consensus emerged around concepts such as the need for flexibility, the importance of changing societys attitude to ageing and the need to view life as a continuum. However, there were doubts as to where prime responsibility lay, with Government (EU or UK), financial institutions, employers or individuals. In the final analysis much depended on the ability of the individual to define his or her needs and expectations for later life and to plan and act accordingly. Blunt instruments were unpopular. Such legislatively simple, and seemingly economically predictable solutions, such as a Raising of the Retirement Age would not meet the diversity of need and ambition. They might also even fail to fulfil economic expectations as, for example, in the case of employment following the Working Hours Directive. A successful policy must work with the grain. Sadly, the tree of life is heavily knotted and overall statistics provide a poor guide to individuals who must be afforded the maximum flexibility. Different generations were likely to have markedly different aspirations. Attitudes to ambition, success, achievement and self-worth were hard, perhaps almost impossible, to change and would require sustained effort. Education, genuine and lifelong, example and encouragement would all be needed. The concept of life as a continuum, which emerged strongly in the medical evidence, was seized upon as of general importance and as providing the thread on which to at least rationalise, if not plan. Distinctions between work and play, employment and retirement would become less significant. Death to retirement, not retirement to death would be the key. The concepts of objectivity and reasonableness likely to be enshrined in legislation would need careful exploration in the light of issues of competence, succession planning and public protection. These concerns are likely to develop under the scrutiny of case law. The measurement of competence was already well developed in some professions, e.g. Medicine. Much could be gained by sharing best practice between professions. It was clear that substantial economic benefits could be achieved for both society and the individual from changes in expectation and regulation. This was not a zero sum game. At a practical level, there is much to do. The customer must be clearly identified, and his or her contribution and needs have to be researched across the range of disciplines and circumstances. Professional organisations should develop these ideas in their own constituencies and perhaps work alongside the RSE in formulating a more considered position. Other organisations represented at the meeting indicated a wish to continue this debate and collaborate with the RSE.
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4. CONCLUSIONS
(i) Legislative, demographic and associated pension shortfalls will inevitably lead to longer effective working lives. It is not yet clear to what extent individuals will be prepared to sustain an increased savings rate to allow retirement on current terms.
(ii) Medical and psychological evidence does not support any specific age as appropriate for retirement. Life is a continuum and should be regarded as such. Public policy on state retirement pensions will be a significant but not necessarily a dominant factor in determining professionals behaviour. (iii) No clear, single, pattern for the late stages in a professional career emerged as overwhelmingly desirable. Further research is needed to identify the needs and aspirations of professional workers. Individual interests and abilities needed to be balanced with the objective and reasonable needs of employers and the public. There was a common, but not universal, desire to continue to contribute to the common weal, but perhaps in new and different ways. Flexibility was essential to allow diversity in the mobilisation and/or maintenance of the contribution of older professionals. (iv) Issues of professional competence as well as public policy associated with diversity and effectiveness would become even more important in matching individual preferences with corporate goals. Professional bodies will need to develop a publicly credible methodology for such issues. (v) There is a shared interest amongst professional workers in ensuring that proposed legislation and developing practice is flexible and facilitating in nature. It should allow professional contributions to be sustained, encourage participation in a variety of activities of public benefit, and ensure that individual choices in life style are protected. Over-complex regulation would be both debilitating and a failure.
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APPENDIX A - SYNDICATE DISCUSSIONS

This appendix provides an account of the questions posed to syndicates and an edited account of the conclusions they presented to the meeting as a whole. Q. How do the skills and abilities of older workers differ from the wider population of professional workers? How should these differences influence the later stages of their employment and career path? This syndicate produced a balance sheet of characteristics that the public frequently attributes to older workers. It was immediately clear to the audience that they were acquainted with many exceptions. PERCEIVED ATTRIBUTES OF OLDER WORKERS Positive Experience Interpersonal Skills Specific Skills ----No or fewer personal goals Objective Independent Continuity Social networking Negative Rigidity Intolerance Out dated Loss of motor skills Lack of drive Resistant to change ----Conservatism Health problems
Organisations would benefit from a diverse, balanced age structure, a blend of caution and aggression. In some roles such as corporate government or mentoring, the balance sheet seemed wholly positive.
Q. What are the main constraints, regulatory, financial and psychological, operating generally and for individuals that would limit the attractiveness or utility of more flexible retirement patterns for older workers? Our attitude to retirement, both as individuals and collectively must change. The cliff model was not a good one, for the majority. Life and work were a continuum. The likely legislative changes will discourage ageism but care must be taken to limit regulatory over-load, which would be particularly damaging for small and medium-sized organisations. Complexity was the enemy of good government. Sensitive redesign of job descriptions as workers age increases would be helpful, but any perceived loss of status associated with changes in responsibility would need careful handling. Professional organisations should be helpful in providing advice, information and match making services.
Q. What will be the economic consequences if a much more flexible career and retirement pattern becomes more widely established amongst professional workers? Consider outcomes in which the flexibility is used either to shorten or to extend effective professional working life. Flexible employment and pay conditions are welcome when working life is extended but are damaging when used to shorten working life. We conjecture that many will be unable to afford full retirement until aged 75. Employers can use age diversity to alleviate skill shortages, although extra job mobility associated with the enlargement of the EU will be another important factor. Employers will consider the cost effectiveness of age diversity, including any costs arising from training, insurance or in the career development of the succeeding workforce.
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Q. If it is accepted that an effective extension of professional working life is beneficial to both the individual and society, what pattern of employment and other activities are likely to be most attractive? Consider both the institutional and individual aspects. Flexibility and simplicity were important. They should be accompanied by incentives to continue work and should allow a diversity of approaches (e.g. short-term consultancy, home-based, part-time) to match the spread of needs, talents and performance of the older professional worker. Pension and professional constraints should permit mid-life re-skilling or contribution to voluntary endeavours. Education was not just a matter for 18-24 year-olds. Mid-life bursaries or educational vouchers to ease family responsibilities would be important. It would be necessary to change expectations; legislation alone would not suffice. Robust measures of competence and an appropriate strategy for the employment of older workers will be needed Horses for courses. It will be important to consider whether there are gender differences that have to be taken account of in any planning.
Q. How can the reservoir of talent and experience, often lost by early retirement, especially in pyramidal organisations, be best exploited? Loss from one activity or organisation is not undesirable if a contribution can be made or fulfilment achieved elsewhere. Flexible working and openness to change on the part of both employers and workers should be encouraged throughout their working life. Initiatives such as design and discuss your own job description are worthwhile. Broadly-based CPD (continuing professional development) could open new avenues. People should be encouraged to view their life as a continuum. Death to Retirement rather than Retirement to Death.
Q. Given a perceived need to provide flexible career paths in later life, how might UK and Scottish legislation best be framed to implement the European Directive on age discrimination? Legislation should be facilitating not prescriptive. Statute law would not be able to identify objective and reasonable. There would be much work for lawyers in developing case law. A default or presumptive retirement age of, say, 70, would not ultimately be legally defensible. Robust measurement of professional competence and appropriateness would be essential.
Q. What role can and should older professional workers play in charitable and voluntary organisations? How can the resource best be mobilised for mutual benefit? Involvement is important to the individual in establishing companionship, a broad social network and in developing new skills. Although an initial connection may be directly related to their professional competence, the connection frequently broadens to a much wider range of activities. Charities have a real need for a passionate objectivity.
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Employers should be imaginative in recognising the benefit of such activities, not just in terms of their social responsibility, but in the personal and professional development of their staff and in the enhanced capability of their organisation. A great deal of voluntary work is undertaken outwith charities and voluntary organisations.
Q. If cultural, intellectual and leisure activities are likely to form an important part of any extended and more flexible career path for older professional workers, what are the organisational and resource implications for activities of this type? The welfare of the intellect is an important public good. Activities of all sorts should be encouraged, not managed. The bringing together of minds and contact with peers, as for example in Probus clubs or the University of the Third Age, were seen as highly desirable. Professional and Educational Organisations were seen as having some responsibilities in this area but self help was likely to be very effective with only modest assistance needed.
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APPENDIX B - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS

GOVERNMENT STRATEGY FOR AGE DIVERSITY IN EMPLOYMENT AND OVER 50s EMPLOYMENT Ms Mary Pattison, Head of Extending Working Life Strategy, Department for Work and Pensions 1. Key facts on participation of older people in the labour market (Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (Spring 2003 - Great Britain) 19 million people aged 50 and over in Britain. 9 million are aged between 50 and State Pension Age (SPA) and account for almost 22% of the working population. 35% of the labour force is currently aged 45+, by 2010 this will rise to 40%, compared to just 17% aged 16-24. Around 7.0 million of the over 50s are in employment. 70% of those aged 50 to SPA and 9% of those who are over SPA. This compares with an employment rate of 82% for people aged 25 to 49 and 60% for those aged 16 to 24. Reduction in the employment rate of 50+ since 1979 is costing UK about 16 billion a year in lost GDP and a further 35 billion a year in extra benefits and lost taxes. 1.4m inactive claiming sickness benefits, 1m inactive not on main benefits, and just 200,000 ILO unemployed & seeking work. Older workers are more likely to work part-time (26%) compared to the 25 to 49 age group (21%), but less likely than those aged 16 to 24 (36%). Self-employment is more common amongst older workers compared to the younger age groups. 24% of those in employment past SPA and 17% of the 50 to SPA age group are self-employed, compared to 12% of the 25 to 49 age group and 3% of those aged 16 to 24. Older people have fewer qualifications than their younger counterparts. 24% of the 50 to SPA age group have no formal qualifications, compared to 12% of those aged 25 to 49 and 13% of the 16 to 24 age group. About a third of people aged 50 to State Pension Age have basic skills needs. Older people are much more likely to be long-term unemployed. 36% of the unemployed 50 to SPA age group have been unemployed for over a year, compared to 26% of the 25 to 49 age group and 12.0% of the 16 to 24 age group.
2. Pensions Green Paper: Extending Working Life Extending Working Life (EWL) is critical to ensure economic prosperity in terms of both work and pensions. Pensions policy is inextricably linked to employment policy for the over 50s because unless people have the opportunity to obtain and stay in work, they will struggle to save for their retirement. Measures to support extending working life in the Pensions Green Paper included: - extra back to work help for those over 50; - more generous incentives for deferring state pensions; - implementing age discrimination legislation in which compulsory retirement ages will be unlawful, unless employers can show they are objectively justified; - tax rule changes to allow people to draw their occupational pension while continuing to work for the same employer; AND - encouraging occupational pensions to support flexible retirement.
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3. Flexible/Gradual Retirement The Government is encouraging more flexible approaches to work and retirement to enable individuals to stay in work longer. Flexible retirement offers business benefits to employers and gives individuals choice and opportunity to stay in work longer. Business benefits of flexible approaches to later working and retirement are: retention of experienced staff with valuable skills; greater flexibility and choice for employees; the creation of a wider pool of expertise for recruitment (by including those aged 55+); enabling the organisation to increase its public image to make it a preferred employer; a strategic and effective response to demographic change; and equality of opportunity and fairness to all employees.
Flexible working enables a gradual progression towards retirement, rather than the traditional cliff edge of full-time work to full-time retirement overnight. It is about encouraging people to remain in employment through a more developed work-life balance. Flexible working into a later retirement can help individuals, including those with failing health or with caring responsibilities, to stay in work longer and plan for a more financially secure later life.
4.
Age Positive Campaign The Age Positive Campaign focuses on raising employers awareness of the business benefits of an age diverse workforce. An updated Code of Practice called Age Diversity at Work was published in December 2002. To date over 130,000 copies of the Code have been issued. In December 2001, the Age Positive website was launched. The site features news stories, information about the Age Positive campaign, information on research and information on legislation. It receives over 90,000 visits a month. The website holds case study details of over 70 employers who are recognised as Age Champions and who actively support the business case for age diversity and the employment of older workers. These companies include small, medium and large employers from a range of sectors. Age Positive was launched in Scotland in January 2003. It is supported by a steering group comprising of key organisations in Scotland including Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive, Age Concern Scotland and Scottish Council for Voluntary Services(SCVO).
5. New Deal 50 plus From the start of the programme in April 2000 to March 2003, over 98,000 people had come off benefits and returned to work with the help of the programmes Employment Credit (now paid as part of the Working Tax Credit). Of these; - 70% moved into full-time work; - 30% moved into part-time work; - 12% were self-employed; - 69% were men; - 31% were women; and - 32% had a disability.
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7. Age Legislation By supporting the European Union Employment Directive on Equal Treatment, the Government will introduce age discrimination legislation, covering employment and vocational training, by 1 October 2006. The period up to 2006 allows the time to tackle the many complex issues surrounding age legislation, so that the legislation is clear and workable for both employers and employees. The age regulations will be published in late 2004, to give employers time to adopt age-positive practices ahead of October 2006. The Governments consultation Equality and Diversity; Age Matters sets out the proposals for the legislation. The consultation closed on 20 October 2003. All the consultation documents can be found on the website of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) at www.dti.gov.uk/er/equality/age.
CASE STUDIES Mrs Deirdre Wilson - Retired Teacher Mrs Wilson talked about her experience since retiring and the challenges and opportunities that she had encountered. Dr George Cooper - Retired Dentist Dr Cooper talked about his own experience of the transformation from busy professional to retirement and the initial difficulties that this change caused. Mr Norman Mitchison - Director of Group Human Resources, Lloyds TSB The impact of demographic changes on both staffing and customers means that businesses have both a need and an opportunity to gain the value of diversity, including age diversity. Legal changes have reinforced rather than created this situation. Some aspects will be challenging, but Lloyds TSB is an example of an employer that is establishing a new set of policies to ensure that all age groups are fully respected and embraced.
DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES Dr Harry Burns, Director of Public Health, Greater Glasgow NHS Board The population of Britain increased progressively as industrialisation affected its villages and towns. As the economy switched from a rural and agricultural base to production of goods in mills and factories, the concentration of population in cities led to increased mortality, usually as a result of infectious diseases and accidents. The rising mortality lagged behind a rising birth rate and the population of all Western societies increased significantly as economic activity grew. As Western economies entered an era of industrialisation, significant changes in demographic patterns were seen. These changes have given rise to the concept of the demographic transition. During the course of the past two centuries there have been major reductions in both fertility and mortality in industrial countries that have in effect doubled life expectancy and halved fertility. If fertility and mortality decline had occurred contemporaneously, population in developed countries would have remained stable, as in the case of France where an early fertility decline was observed. In most countries, however, mortality fell before fertility, leading to rapid and sustained rises in population in Europe and North America. This pattern is shown in Figure 2.
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Source: Huw R Jones (1990) Population Geography. Paul Chapman Publishing Ltd By the end of the 20th century, in some countries, we were seeing the birth rate fall below the death rate, causing population decrease. The baby boom of the post-war years has ameliorated this effect in most countries, but in a number, slight population decrease or population stability can be observed. The Malthusian pessimism of the 1960s and 1970s which suggested that population growth would outstrip resources and lead to a series of catastrophes within societies has receded somewhat in the light of evidence of population stability in the West. In global terms, however, concerns remain as rainforests are destroyed to create pasture and climate change resulting from the activities of increasing industrialisation becomes a reality. However, writers such as Boserup have argued that population growth precedes and provokes economic progress and, therefore, the number of economically active individuals in the population becomes an important determinant of human progress.
Figure 3 Population pyramids US 1970-2030 Source: Huw R Jones (1990) Population Geography. Paul Chapman Publishing Ltd
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The challenges for a society in maintaining innovation and economic growth when its population is stable or even declining modestly are compounded in the case of the United Kingdom and other Western countries by the shorterterm cyclical impact of the post-war baby boom cohort. A significant increase in the proportion of the population aged over 65 will occur by around the year 2010. It is anticipated that the proportion of the US population aged 65 and over will rise 10% in 1970 to around 21% in 2030 (see figure 3). In the UK, the Government Actuarys Department has recently produced an extensive set of projected populations for the United Kingdom for the next 50 years. These projections are based on a range of alternative high and low assumptions for fertility, life expectancy and net migration. They suggest that the impact of ageing baby boomers replacing the smaller cohorts born before 1945 will be particularly significant in Scotland, where the proportion of the population would increase to 27%, compared with 24.5% for the rest of the UK, by 2040. Under predictions of low fertility, high life-expectancy or low migration assumptions, proportions would reach 28-29% in Scotland compared with 25-26% in the UK as a whole. The support ratio is defined as the ratio of persons aged 16-64 to those aged 65 and over. Based on strict age definitions, these ratios take no account of workforce participation rates and therefore under-estimate the real level of economic dependence. At present there are 4.1 people aged 16-64 in the UK for every person aged 65 and over. By 2050, this ratio will fall to between 2.3 and 2.6. While there is considerable uncertainty about future population predictions, it is highly likely that the population of Scotland, which is already falling, will continue to fall in future and the support ratio data suggests that considerable stresses will be placed on the working age population as the Scottish population ages more significantly than in the rest of the UK. The implications of these predictions for economic activity are significant. The implications for the broader health of the population are also profound in view of Scotlands position as having a middle-life cohort of men and women with high levels of heart disease and other chronic ailments. There is strong evidence to believe that the elderly population in Scotland over the next two or three decades will be more dependent and more requiring of health care than the elderly in other parts of the United Kingdom. High levels of chronic physical ill health are associated in the population with high levels of cognitive decline, therefore the burden on those of working age is likely to increase. Unless significant efforts are made to support the elderly in maintaining health and intellectual ability, as well as in remaining economically active, it is likely that Scotland will suffer the impact of demographic pressures more acutely than any of the other parts of the United Kingdom.
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THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AN AGEING POPULATION Professor Peter Sloane FRSE, Director, WELMERC, University of Wales Swansea 1. The Problem The population within the European Union is getting older a feature linked to low birth rates and increasing life expectancy. Employment among older people (50-64) is low and many leave the labour force at relatively early ages. Someone born in 2000 can expect to live about 30 years longer than someone born a century before and this, therefore, imposes an increasing burden on systems of social protection. As the dependency ratio increases, those in employment need to become more productive in order to maintain standards of living for the whole population. These problems impact on the UK as elsewhere in Europe. NEDO noted that a decline of one million in the number of 16-19 year-olds would require employers to adapt manpower policies to attract different groups, including mature individuals, to avoid manpower shortages. Today it is recognised that the number of 50-64 yearolds will rise sharply both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total population. But reductions in the activity rate of older men have helped to slow down the ageing of the labour force, with the average age rising from 37.5 years in 1991 to 39.0 years in 2001. The proportion of men in employment aged 60-64 halved between 1968 and 1999 from 80% to 40% and there has been a tendency to retire at earlier and earlier ages. A report by the Cabinet Office, Performance and Innovation Unit (2000) notes that male employment rates now start to decline at 50 rather than from age 55 as in the past. There are now 2.8 million over-50s but below state retirement age not working, of whom 1.25 million are classified as long-term sick and disabled, 0.5 million are retired and only 0.29 million are looking for work. If employment rates among men had remained the same since 1979, there would now be 800,000 more men over 50 in work. If early retirement was purely a voluntary decision there would perhaps be less public policy concern, but it is believed that no more than one-third of those not in work fall into this category. Less skilled workers have less control over the nature and timing of departure from work. From late 1998 to late 2002, employment amongst those aged 50 and over increased by 650,000, in sharp contrast to the downward trend in the two decades prior to the mid -1990s (Disney and Hawkes, 2003). However, the Cabinet Office believes this is a cyclical effect and the downward trend is likely to resume.
2. Consequences Dixon (2003) notes the following effects of workforce ageing: upward pressure on employers wage costs as age-earnings profiles are positive. This is one reason why employers tend to shed older workers in a recession (Johnson and Zimmerman, 1993); downward pressure on labour force participation rates, as the rates for older workers are much less than those of younger adults and prime age workers; reduced voluntary mobility between jobs and lower turnover within enterprises; an increase in involuntary job loss, especially among older workers; reduced geographical mobility; increased obsolescence of skills; and a rise in the incidence of ill health and disability within the labour force.
There are three main types of cost involved: The ECONOMIC COST consists of the loss of output to the economy arising from the reduction in employment of older workers which represents, on particular assumptions, 2% of GDP (or 16 billion per annum),
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though much higher figures have been estimated by Herbertsson and Orszag (2003). Within this total, individuals will forego 9 billion in wage income, some of which could be saved to boost income beyond retirement. Additional social security benefits amount to some 1-2 billion per annum and reduced government revenues to some 2-3 billion. HUMAN COSTS for those who are involuntarily out of the labour market and perhaps on low incomes may include low self-esteem as well as poverty. For example, it has been found that unemployment significantly increases the likelihood of divorce. SOCIAL COSTS include a loss of social networks and a degree of social exclusion. There is evidence that both inactivity and unemployment lead to poor health, with future costs on the NHS. Indeed, unemployment has been shown to increase the risk of early death by as much as one-third for men and women of all ages.
3. Solutions? Within the European Union, the Stockholm Council of March 2001 agreed that at least half of the EU population in the 55-64 age group should be in employment by 2010 (the UK figure then being 52.3 per cent, compared to the EU average of 38.8 per cent). The Barcelona Council of 2002 requested a progressive increase of about 5 years in the effective average age at which people stop working in the EU to be achieved by 2010. (The figure for the UK was 62.0 in 2001, compared to 59.9 in the EU as whole). The question is how are these goals to be achieved? There are a number of possibilities: Encourage partial retirement. People who leave permanent full-time jobs before the state pension age are just as likely to move initially into part-time, temporary or self-employed work as to leave the labour force directly. Improving opportunities to obtain bridge jobs might increase this tendency further (Hirsch, 2003). Encourage wage flexibility. If productivity declines with age, reducing the wage rate for older workers would increase their employability. If the rigidity of wage structures reduces the feasibility of this, wage subsidies for older workers might be considered. Change the age of retirement, either by removing mandatory retirement provisions or by raising the retirement age from 65 to, say, 70, so that the proportion of a persons lifespan spent in work remained roughly the same. The Government is already committed to raising the state pension age for women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and in October 2003 announced that people who deferred taking up a state pension would receive a lump sum, which for a five-year deferral would amount to 30,000. Change pension arrangements, to favour continuing in employment. Members of occupational pension schemes (roughly one-quarter of all employees) on above-average earnings are up to 50% more likely to leave their jobs earlier than individuals with similar earnings but not in such a scheme. A study by Blundell, Meghir and Smith (2002) found that varying pension arrangements had both income and substitution effects, the former denoting a positive wealth effect stimulating retirement and the latter an option value obtained from not stopping work now. Similarly, in the United States, Vanderhart (2003) found that changes in Social Security retirement benefits could explain most of the observed decline in labour force participation rates of older men since 1967. Encourage lifelong learning to improve the adaptability of older workers and overcome technical and economic skills obsolescence. The former results from the natural process of ageing, particularly where heavy physical working conditions apply, and the latter from shifts in the demand for skills (from say motor skills to communication skills). In practice, relatively few adults acquire new formal qualifications beyond the age of 40 and the financial incentives to do so decline steeply with age. The older the worker the shorter the pay-back period in terms of the conventional working life. In fact, some studies have found that the overall return to training for older workers may often be negative.
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Introduce age discrimination legislation. The UK has signed up to the recent EC Directive on age discrimination and must introduce legislation no later than the end of 2006. While its precise form has still to be determined, it is likely to cover recruitment, training, promotion and retirement. An impact assessment has estimated net benefits of 1 billion in present value terms over the first 20 years following legislation. The extent to which employer behaviour towards older workers is based on prejudice, as opposed to economic considerations is, however, uncertain. Encourage net immigration. Expansion of the EU is likely to lead to substantial immigration into the UK from Eastern Europe and this will both add to the supply of labour and reduce the average age of the workforce. Encourage older people to make use of their skills and experience for the benefit of the wider community by improving access to, motivation towards and availability of volunteering opportunities. This is favoured by the Government and could include both small financial payments and in-kind benefits.
REFERENCES Blundell, R., Meghir, C. and Smith, S. Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement, Economic Journal, vol 112, no. 478, March 2003, pp C153-C170. Cabinet Office, Performances and Innovation Unit, Winning the Generation Game, HMSO, April 2000 Disney, R. and Hawkes, D. Why Has Employment Recently Risen Among Older Workers in Britain? in Dickens, R., Gregg, P. and Wadsworth, J. The Labour Market Under New Labour: The State of Working Britain II, Centre for Economic Performance, London, 2003. Dixon, S. Implications of Population Ageing for the Labour Market, Labour Market Trends, February, 2003, pp 67-76. European Commission, Employment and Social Affairs. Labour Market Trends and Characteristics of Older Workers, Employment in Europe 2003, Luxemborg, 2003, pp 157-181 Herberson, T.T. and Orszag, J.M. The Early Retirement Burden: Assessing the Costs of the Continued Prevalence of Early Retirement in OECD Countries IZA Discussion Paper no. 816, Bonn, July 2003. Hirsch, D. Cross-Roads After 50: Improving Choices in Work and Retirement, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York, 2003. Johnson, P. and Zimmerman, K.F. Editors Labour Markets in an Ageing Europe, Cambridge University Press, 1993. National Economic Development Office Defusing the Demographic Time Bomb, HMSO, London, 1989. Vanderhart, M.J. Labour Supply of Older Men: Does Social Security Matter?. Economic Inquiry, vol. 41, no. 2, April 2003, pp 250-263
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ATTITUDES TO AGEING Professor Tom Kirkwood, Professor of Medicine, Newcastle University Attitudes to ageing are beginning to undergo a profound change, although the pace of change is not as fast as it needs to be if we are to make the necessary adjustments to our society as longevity continues to increase. Our attitudes to ageing are informed by a wide variety of inputs and perspectives. One of the most important of these is that which can be drawn from our advancing knowledge of the biological nature of the ageing process. It is long overdue that we develop better mechanisms to join up what biology, medicine and social science tell us about ageing. These disciplines have interacted rather little so far, yet there are powerful interconnections that are underlined by new insights into the biology. The traditional view of the ageing process can be broadly summarised as follows: The ageing process is biologically determined (we are programmed to die). The ageing process is one of progressive loss of function and quality of life. There is an inbuilt limit to the length of human life. Ageing is a distinct, degenerative phase of the life cycle.
What we now know is that each of these ingredients of the traditional view is flawed, if not entirely wrong. Far from being programmed to die, recent insights into the evolutionary basis of ageing tell us emphatically that there is no genetic programme for ageing and death. This is revealed when we examine the detailed operation of cells and tissues of the body throughout life. Even in the last minutes of a persons life, the cells and tissues are responding to a programme for survival, not destruction. Far from being programmed to die, the body is programmed for survival. The reason we do not live forever is that in our evolutionary past, at a time when the genetic factors that programmed our survival were set, life expectancy was curtailed by a wide array of accidental causes of death (infection, disease, starvation, etc), so there was little evolutionary pressure to select for higher settings of the genetically determined survival mechanisms than were necessary to keep the body in good condition during the few decades that we were likely to survive. Instead, a higher priority was to invest biological resources in fertility and reproduction, so that genes might be carried on through progeny. The upshot of this reasoning, which is called the disposable soma theory (soma meaning body), is that ageing comes about through the gradual accumulation during life of an array of subtle faults in our cells and tissues. The idea that ageing is not programmed but instead happens through the build-up of damage is important because it tells us that the ageing process is intrinsically malleable. If ways can be found to reduce the impact of the damage that contributes to the formation of cellular damage, or to enhance the capacity to repair damage when it occurs, then we can expect to remain healthier for longer. This is likely to account for the continuing increases in human longevity, which would be much harder to explain if we held to the view that ageing was programmed into us. Although ageing itself is not programmed, genes do play a role in influencing how long we may live and in what state of health. The kinds of genetic factors that appear to be important are those that directly or indirectly influence the efficiency of cellular maintenance and repair processes. A number of studies carried out over the last decade indicate that the coefficient of heritability of human longevity is about 0.25, suggesting that genes account for about a quarter of what determines how long we live. The other three-quarters can be explained, in terms of the damageaccumulation model implied by the disposable soma theory, as due to nutrition, lifestyle, environment, and chance. Nutrition, lifestyle, and environment all play roles in influencing either the ways in which our bodies are exposed to cellular damage during life or the ways in which our intrinsic mechanisms for cellular maintenance and repair are empowered to carry out their functions. The contribution from chance arises from the fact that the processes underlying ageing have a random element. Ageing is not a deterministic process. Another important implication of the fact that ageing is caused by the build-up of damage is that there is no mid-life milestone beyond which youth ends and old age begins. Instead, the processes that influence how the body ages
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have been in train since very early in life, probably beginning in the womb. This means that it is never too soon to begin interventions, such as the adoption of healthy lifestyles, to promote health in old age. Thus, we see that instead of old age being a distinct stage of the life history, youth and old age are a continuum. Actions to promote healthy ageing are actions that should promote young peoples health, and vice-versa. The malleability of the ageing process suggests that some of the accumulation of damage may be slowed, or in some cases reversed, by appropriate interventions, including lifestyle choices. This argues against the fatalist view that ageing is a process of inevitable deterioration. Studies on exercise have shown how adopting a regimen of physical activity, even if begun late in life and in the presence of age-related frailty and/or disability, can have powerful rejuvenating effects in terms of muscle strength and performance. There is an important interaction here with attitudes to ageing. The promotion of exercise (and other demanding activities that can help to preserve function in later life) may at first sight seem to contradict the natural and well-meaning tendency to protect older people from challenge. It will be clear from the above that the idea of an inbuilt limit to the length of human life is contradicted by what we now understand about the nature of the ageing process. This does not mean that people will live forever, nor does it mean that we can expect people to live past 150 any time soon. It simply means that there is nothing fixed about the current world record for human longevity (122 years). Like other performance records, this record will one day be broken but breaking it will not be easy. The emphasis given here to the biological understanding of ageing is deliberate and not intended to suggest that biological insights are of greater importance than others. However, once we recognise that our traditional ideas about the ageing process are unfounded, we are freed to look in new ways at how a range of attitudes can be developed differently. Social and medical attitudes are key determinants of the environment within which the body ages. It is all too evident that environment can have powerful enabling or disabling impacts on older age, particularly in the case of unsupportive environments (poor transport, housing, crime, etc) which discourage active lifestyles and social participation. Inactivity and isolation accelerate physical and psychological declines and increase vulnerability to depression. It is crucial to recognise that attitudes are key features of the environment. Problem attitudes to ageing are widespread and include: fatalism (the feeling that nothing can alter the course of ageing); denial (pretending that it isnt going to happen to me); negative stereotyping of older people (setting a false distinction between them and us); tunnel vision (failure to recognise how things may be changed for the better by adopting a new approach); abdication of personal responsibility (failure to engage with the nutritional, lifestyle and other choices that influence how the body ages); and fantasy (waiting for the quick fix, which may never happen). Attitudes change best when knowledge advances. We need to disseminate awareness of how new knowledge about the ageing process has changed the foundation on which our previous attitudes were built; we need to promote the sharing of knowledge about actions that improve health and quality of life in old age; and we need new knowledge to advance our attitudes to the changing place of ageing in society. Further reading: Kirkwood, T.B.L. Time of Our Lives: The Science of Human Ageing. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1999. Kirkwood, T.B.L. The End of Age. London: BBC in association with Profile Books, 2001
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CHARITY CHALLENGES Mr Norman Drummond, Chairman, Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland is Scotlands largest independent grant-making Trust. Established originally by the then TSB Group at its flotation in 1985 to recognise the community stake in the Bank, it was endowed with a shareholding entitling it to a share of the future profits of the company in perpetuity, for distribution to charities. The Foundation has grown rapidly in the period following the merger of TSB and Lloyds Bank in the mid 1990s, since when the income under covenant has reflected the enlarged entity. The Foundation also receives Scottish Executive funding and monies from a US source. In 2003 some 10 million was available for distribution to Scottish voluntary organisations. The Foundations published criteria covers a wide spectrum of charitable activity, although a significant share of the available funding is devoted to less fashionable endeavours such as drug and alcohol misuse, homelessness, exoffenders, refugees and asylum seekers, HIV and Aids, etc. In 2003 the Foundation launched an Overseas Programme, supporting Scottish charities in their work in developing countries; it also provides access to capacity building support to a wide range of charities each year. Since 1999, a first-class partnership between the Foundation and the Royal Society of Edinburgh has helped some of Scotlands brightest and best young people to undertake valuable medical and scientific research at Scottish Universities. All of this work is focused on finding ways to improve the quality of life for people in their later years. The Voluntary Sector in the UK is vitally important to address the gaps in state provision, to respond to new and unmet needs, and to go that little bit further to alleviate difficulties and provide positive opportunities. We observe a growing charitable sector, with many services previously delivered by statutory agencies now routed through charities. This is a welcome development, often yielding significant benefits and added value for those in need. As overall income has grown, one must bear in mind that these new resources are invariably tied to a specific purpose. It is easy to overlook a serious underlying trend of diminishing resources for the vital pioneering work of the sector. Innovative money is in short supply, public donations have fallen in the wake of a small number of overpublicised rogue charities in recent months, and changes in corporation tax treatment allied with stock market performance have combined to reduce income to endowed charities. In addition, reduced lottery-playing levels are impacting adversely on funds available through its distributors. There is, however, more to resources than money. Of the 1,200 charities applying to the Foundation in 2002, we observed that there are four volunteers to every paid staff member. The most recent UK statistics suggest that 22 million adults are involved in formal volunteering each year. The economic value of volunteering to the UK is estimated at 40 billion each year. In Scotland eight million hours are volunteered each month. Those volunteering show a preference for being involved in either fundraising activities or front-line service delivery, although 10% of volunteers serve on Management Committees. As we look to the future, statistics suggest that there is considerable scope for new volunteering, with both unfashionable causes and unattractive activities in greatest need. People to support those with mental health issues, and to work with young people emerging from care perhaps, not forgetting debt counselling in the wake of record spending levels last year. Volunteers to help with the day-to-day back office and managerial work of charities are in great demand; it is of real concern that so many highly skilled staff in charities require to devote much of their time writing reports and securing funding at the expense of delivering the services they are well qualified to provide. Against this background, Norman Drummond explored ways to harness the resource, not just in respect of volunteering but also for those seeking more out of a working life, to whom the voluntary sector might just be the other way. He explored historic attitudes to working for charities, as opposed to the public and private sectors, and perhaps challenge perceptions. The difference between wisdom and learning was the key theme, and how best we might better develop talent and unlock unrealised potential in the third age.
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THE ROLE OF PENSIONS AND SAVINGS Mr Tom Ross, President, Faculty of Actuaries 1. Although State pensions are payable from age 65 for men (and will be for women from 2020 after a ten year transition from age 60), significant proportions of men and women are no longer economically active in the years leading up to State pension age, as Table 1 illustrates. TABLE 1- Economic Activity Rates Men aged 50 64 Economic Activity Rate % 72.8 72.3 71.5 71.8 72.2 72.0 72.6 72.5 73.1 72.8 74.9 Women aged 50 - 59 Economic Activity Rate % 62.2 63.1 63.2 62.9 63.3 64.3 64.9 65.9 66.2 67.1 68.7
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Labour Force Survey
The trend towards increasing economic inactivity in the 1980s appears to have been reversed in recent years, but the absolute level remains substantial. Unfortunately I was unable to find data exclusively for professional and managerial people as a class (a frequently-encountered problem in this area) but the general message is likely to apply. 2. This is not a feature unique to the UK. Table 2 gives some international comparisons. TABLE 2 - Average age of withdrawal from the labour force in selected countries in 1999. Canada Germany Italy Japan The Netherlands Sweden UK US Source: OECD Men 62.4 60.3 58.8 68.5 60.4 63.7 62.6 64.6 Women 60.8 60.1 57.9 64.7 59.8 62.7 60.4 63.4
3. Good information on the extent of savings (whether through pensions or otherwise) is not easy to come by. The following is from a study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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TABLE 3 - The Distribution of Wealth (excluding pensions and housing) in 2000 Percentile Savings 10th 0 25th 1 th 50 1000 75th 6000 th 90 18000 Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies Investments 0 0 0 2000 15000
Interestingly the IFS found that most people had either both pensions and non-pensions savings, or neither. 4. Most employed professional and managerial people are members of occupational schemes. But, in the private sector in particular, many generous final salary schemes have been closed to new members and replaced by schemes which not only have a lower contribution commitment from the employer, but also shift more of the financial and longevity risks to the employee. This has, thus far, been less of an issue in the public sector. 5. As a result of the above factors, and others, there appears to be a wide gap between the pensions to which many people aspire and those that they can realistically expect to receive, based on the level of contributions they and their employers are prepared to pay. Realistically a large part of that gap is likely to have to be filled by paid work, so that this Seminar is extremely timely. 6. There is no intrinsic reason why occupational and personal pensions cannot be paid more flexibly than at present for example starting off at a lower rate and increasing to the full rate over a period, to dovetail with paid work that is increasingly part time. This is particularly straightforward with defined contribution pensions, but not difficult either with defined benefit pensions. The barriers have been regulatory, not technical, but there are grounds for optimism that they will be removed. 7. State pensions are an important part of retirement planning, even for those on above average incomes. Table 4 illustrates this.
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TABLE 4 - Income Distribution of Pensioners Bottom Quintile Pensioner Couples Gross Income pw 165 of which State benefit Income pw 138 % 84% Single Pensioners Gross Income pw 93 of which State benefit income pw 83 % 89% Source: Pensioners Income Series 2001/02 The State system involves significant elements of means testing, through the operation of the Pension Credit and Housing and Council Tax Benefits. These result in significant disincentives to save, particularly if only modest savings can be afforded. It is estimated that, under current policies, more than two-thirds of pensioners will be eligible for means-tested benefits by the year 2050. 1. A number of commentators advocate greater flexibility in the payment of State pensions. However, this may cause political difficulties in practice because the current evidence is that people take their State pensions at the earliest possible time. This tends to maximise the available means-tested top-ups. 2. Non-pensions savings, including home ownership for this purpose, constitute an important resource for many in the professional and managerial categories. Products designed to release equity from peoples homes have been relatively unsuccessful thus far no doubt in part because of the effect on inheritance by the succeeding generation but there is considerable potential in this area. 3. Confidence in pensions and savings has been damaged by the recent stock market falls, by mis-selling scandals and by the diminishing commitment by employers (particularly in the private sector) to occupational schemes. The investment outlook in a low inflation environment is for modest returns and this, coupled with improving longevity, make the return on retirement saving appear unattractive. These issues present major governance challenges for the pensions and savings industries, and major educational challenges for financial consumers. 4. As a basis for an improved outlook for retirement there is in my view a clear need for: A simpler, more transparent and more generous universal State system; Policies that encourage extended working lifetimes; Better, more realistic forecasting of peoples likely pension outcomes; A simpler, less bureaucratic regulatory framework; Robust funding standards for employers pension promises; and Simpler, more transparent savings products. Next Quintile 221 169 76% Middle Quintile 276 173 63% Next Quintile 373 175 47% Top Quintile 889 157 18%
131 107 82%
161 126 78%
203 135 67%
364 143 39%
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APPENDIX C - SPEAKER BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES

Ms Mary Pattison Head of Extending Working Life Strategy, Department for Work and Pensions Mary works for Department of Work and Pensions. She is currently responsible for strategy and policy to increase employment rates for older workers. The policies are aimed at improving the opportunities for older people to work and to save for retirement. Previously she was project manager responsible for the DWP aspects of the introduction of Tax Credits. Before that she had a range of HQ and operational jobs in social security including managing both local and national benefit services. Mrs Deirdre Wilson, Retired Teacher Deirdre Wilson worked as a teacher: in London at Secondary Level; in Edinburgh in Further Education; then in the Stirling area, again in Secondary Schools. Mrs Wilson retired from teaching in 1997. Dr George Cooper, Retired Dentist George Cooper studied Dental Surgery at Edinburgh University, commencing General Practice in 1968. Dr Cooper built up his own Practice, with a partner, in the late seventies. During that time he was President of the East of Scotland Division of the British Dental Association and the President of the Royal Odonto-Chirurgical Society of Scotland. Dr Cooper retired from General Practice in 2002. Mr Norman Mitchison, Director of Group Human Resources, Lloyds TSB Norman Mitchinson was appointed to the post of Director of Group Human Resources in March 1998, having worked for Lloyds Bank and subsequently Lloyds TSB since leaving school in 1962. This has included posts in branches, in regional general management, in corporate planning, in risk management, in support activities and in information technology. He retires at the end of January 2004. An Honours Graduate in Law of the University of London (obtained whilst working for the Bank), he is also a Fellow of The Chartered Institute of Bankers, a holder of the Institutes Financial Studies Diploma, and a Fellow of the Institute of Management. In 1998, at the age of 54, he obtained a Master of Business Administration degree with Distinction from Heriot-Watt University. Dr Harry Burns, Director of Public Health, Greater Glasgow NHS Board Harry Burns graduated in medicine from the University of Glasgow in 1974. Over the next 15 years he worked as a general surgeon and for the last six years of his surgical career was a consultant surgeon at the Royal Infirmary in Glasgow. He entered health care management and was, for a time, Medical Director of the Royal Infirmary in Glasgow. Since 1993 he has been Director of Public Health for Greater Glasgow Health Board which is responsible for organising health care and maintaining the health of one million people in the West of Scotland. In 1999 he was awarded a Visiting Professorship in Public Health Medicine, University of Glasgow. He worked for three years on part-time secondment to the Scottish Executive, developing strategy to tackling cancer in Scotland. This work culminated in the publication of the Scottish Cancer Plan. He is currently working on the establishment of the Glasgow Centre for Population Health, which will examine the ways in which communities can create health through better and closer working between different agencies. Professor Peter Sloane FRSE, Director , WELMERC, University of Wales Swansea Peter J Sloane, FRSE, is Research Professor of the University of Wales Swansea, where he is Director of WELMERC (the Welsh Economy Labour Market Evaluation and Research Centre). Until 2002 he was Jaffrey Professor of Political Economy, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Law and Vice-Principal, University of Aberdeen. For ten years he was a member of the Secretary of State for Scotlands Panel of Economic Consultants. He also served on the Economics Panel for three Research Assessment Exercises and is a past Member of Council of the ESRC. Currently he is a Research Fellow of the Institute of Labor Studies (IZA), Bonn, a member of the European Low Wage Employment Network (LOWeR) and Vice-President of the International Association of Sports Economists. Recent publications include: Employment Equity and Affirmative Action (with H. Jain and F. Horwitz), M.E. Sharpe, New York, 2003, and The Economics of Sport: An International Comparison (with R. Sandy and M. Rosentraub), Palgrave MacMillan, London and New York, 2004.
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Professor Tom Kirkwood, Professor of Medicine, Newcastle University Tom Kirkwood is Professor of Medicine and Head of Gerontology in the Institute for Ageing and Health at the University of Newcastle. Educated in biology and mathematics at Cambridge and Oxford, he worked at the National Institute for Medical Research until in 1993 he became Professor of Biological Gerontology at the University of Manchester. He is a Council Member of the Academy of Medical Sciences and BBSRC, and he chaired the UK Foresight Task Force on Healthcare and Older People. He has published more than 200 scientific papers and won several prizes for his research. His books include the award-winning Time of Our Lives: The Science of Human Ageing, Chance, Development and Ageing (with Caleb Finch) and The End of Age based on his BBC Reith Lectures in 2001. Mr Norman Drummond, Chairman, Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland Norman Drummond has been described as one of the most interesting and talented Scots of this generation. He has experienced a wide range of public leadership roles within the Church, the Services, Secondary and Tertiary Education, Public Service within the Media and latterly within Business as an Executive Coach and Social Entrepreneur. Following Degrees in Law at Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge and Divinity at New College, Edinburgh, he was Chaplain to Depot, The Parachute Regiment, then The Black Watch (Royal Highland Regiment). After a School Chaplaincy at Fettes College, he was appointed Headmaster of Loretto School at the early age of 32. A former BBC National Governor and Chairman of the Broadcasting Council for Scotland, Norman was also Chairman of BBC Children in Need. He was the first Chair of the Community Action Network in Scotland and since 1999 has been Chairman of Governors at Aiglon College, Switzerland. In 1999 Norman set up Drummond International, specialising in Inspirational Executive Coaching, Motivational Public Speaking, Inter-Personal Skills, Mediation, Presentation Skills and Media Management. He retains his status as a Minister of the Church of Scotland and since 1993 has been honoured by his appointment as a Chaplain to Her Majesty The Queen in Scotland. Norman is Founder and Chairman of Columba 1400, the highly-regarded Community and International Leadership Centre at Staffin on the Isle of Skye, whose latest exciting development is that both Australia and New Zealand are setting up Columba 1400 in their respective countries. In February 2003 Norman was elected and appointed Chairman of Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland. Norman continues to endeavour to give voice to those who dont have it and to develop self-worth and potential in others. His first book in this area, The Spirit of Success: How to connect your heart to your head in work and in life is due for publication by Hodder & Stoughton in April 2004 and so the message will reach an even wider international public. Mr Tom Ross, President, Faculty of Actuaries Tom Ross is a Consulting Actuary and a Principal at Aon Limited. He started his career with Scottish Life in 1966, after graduating from Edinburgh University with a maths degree, and qualified as a Fellow of the Faculty of Actuaries in 1970. He then spent five years in Vancouver working as a Consulting Actuary and joined Clay & Partners (now Aon Limited), based in London, in 1976. He is a Fellow of the Canadian Institute. He is the President of the Faculty of Actuaries. He is also Chairman of Penta Capital Partners (Holdings) Limited, and a Director of Royal London and of the Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust. He is the first Chairman of the Pensions Policy Institute, which he and his colleagues on the Pension Provision Group established to undertake independent research, analysis and comment on pensions and other retirement issues. In the past he has been Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds and a member of the Hampel Committee on Corporate Governance. In his spare time he likes nothing better than a day at the races, a round of golf, a good dinner with vintage wine or a visit to his three grandchildren though not all at the same time!
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Stewart Sutherland KT PRSE, The Right Honourable Lord Sutherland of Houndwood, President of The Royal Society of Edinburgh Stewart Sutherland was born in 1941 in Aberdeen, Scotland. In 1963 he graduated from the University of Aberdeen with an M.A. with First Class Honours in Philosophy; two years later he received an M.A. with First Class Honours in Philosophy of Religion from Corpus Christi College, Cambridge. Lord Sutherlands career includes appointments as Professor of Philosophy, and Philosophy of Religion. A respected writer, he is author of Atheism and the Rejection of God; God, Jesus and Belief; and Faith and Ambiguity. Among the books he has co-edited are The Worlds Religions and Religion, Reason and the Self. From 1984 to 1990 he was editor of Religious Studies. Lord Sutherland is one of those rare individuals who combines lifelong commitment to intellectual life with public service both inside and outside universities. Within the realm of academia, he was Principal and Vice-Chancellor at the University of Edinburgh, where he also taught Philosophy of Religion; Principal of Kings College, London; ViceChancellor of the University of London; Vice-Chairman of the Committee of Vice-Chancellors and member of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee. He is currently President of The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Chairman of the Council of the Royal Institute of Philosophy and of Universities Scotland. In the broader area of education, he has served as Her Majestys Chief Inspector of Schools England and is Honorary President of the Christian Education Movement (Scotland) and member of the Education Funding Council for England Board. He has published studies on Higher Education and Teacher Education and was President of the Higher Education Foundation. Lord Sutherland has made many contributions to the broader community. He is a member of the Council for Science and Technology. He has a particular interest in the care of the elderly, he has chaired the Royal Commission on the Long-Term Care of the Elderly and is President of a national charity, Alzheimer Scotland - Action on Dementia. In recognition of his achievements, Lord Sutherland has received numerous distinctions. In 2003 he was made a Knight of The Thistle by Her Majesty The Queen. He has been awarded ten honorary degrees from European and North American universities. He was elected Fellow of the British Academy (FBA) in 1992 and of The Royal Society of Edinburgh (FRSE) in 1995. Lord Sutherland also holds Honorary Fellowships of Kings College, London, Corpus Christi College, Cambridge and the University College of North Wales, Bangor.
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APPENDIX D - PARTICIPATING ORGANISATIONS

Arts and Culture Scottish Arts Council Scottish Library Association Business Arup Scotland Lloyds TSB National Association of Pension Funds PriceWaterhouseCoopers Scottish Business in the Community Shepherd and Wedderburn Learned and Professional Societies Association of University Teachers British Dental Association Faculty of Actuaries Faculty of Advocates Institute of Chartered Accountants Institution of Civil Engineers Institute of Directors Law Society of Scotland Royal Academy of Engineering Royal Incorporation of Architects Royal Institute of British Architects Royal Society Royal Pharmaceutical Society Government and Politics Department of Work and Pensions European Parliament NHS Public Health Board Scottish Parliament Scottish Executive Charitable Organisations Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland REACH Age Concern
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APPENDIX E - PARTICIPANTS
Mr A Bisset, Senior Partner, Arup Scotland Professor Sir Michael Bond FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Psychological Medicine, University of Glasgow Mr G Borthwick CBE, Chairman, Scottish Business in the Community Mr J Boyle, Chairman, Scottish Arts Council Professor S A Brown OBE FRSE, Professor of Education, University of Stirling. Dr H Burns, Director of Public Health, Greater Glasgow NHS Board Mr C Campbell QC, The Dean of Faculty, Faculty of Advocates Professor Sir David Carter FRSE, Former Vice-Principal, University of Edinburgh; Former Chief Medical Officer, Scottish Executive. Mr B Christie, Health Writer & Media Consultant Mr G Cooper, Retired Dentist Dr J Craig, President Elect, British Dental Association Ms J Crombie, Chair, Association of Pension Lawyers Professor J E Dale FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Plant Physiology, University of Edinburgh Ms S Deacon, MSP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, The Scottish Parliament Mr N Drummond, Chairman, Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland Professor Sir John Enderby CBE FRS, Physical Secretary & Vice-President, The Royal Society Ms C Farnish, Chief Executive, National Association of Pension Funds Mr M Finlayson, Chief Executive, Teacher Support Scotland Professor D J Finney CBE FRS FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Statistics, University of Edinburgh Dr M A D Fluendy FRSE, Former Reader in Chemistry, University of Edinburgh Professor Sir Patrick Forrest FRSE, Professor Emeritus (Surgery), University of Edinburgh. Former Regius Professor of Clinical Surgery, University of Edinburgh Mr E Frizzell, Head of Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning Department, Scottish Executive Ms C Glover, RPSGB-Scottish Executive, The Royal Pharmaceutical Society Mr D Gorrie, MSP for Central Scotland, The Scottish Parliament Professor J R Greening FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Medical Physics, University of Edinburgh Mr I R Guild CBE WS FRSE, Former Partner, Shepherd and Wedderburn, Edinburgh Bishop M Hare Duke, Retired Bishop; Chair of Age Concern Scotland 1994-2000; Chair of The Scottish Forum on Older Volunteering RSVP; currently Patron RSVP Mr R Harper, MSP for Lothians, The Scottish Parliament Dr G Hawksworth, President, Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain Professor D M Henderson CBE FRSE, Her Majestys Botanist in Scotland. Former Regius Keeper Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh; Former Administrator, Inverewe Garden Professor A W Hendry FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Edinburgh Ms F Hird, Head of Older Peoples Unit, Scottish Executive Rev A Hunter, Vice-President AUT, University of Glasgow Professor J S Kelly FRSE, Professor of Pharmacology & Director, University of Edinburgh Professor T Kirkwood, Professor of Medicine, University of Newcastle Professor R J Knops FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Mathematics, Heriot-Watt University Professor J H Knox FRS FRSE, University Fellow & Emeritus Professor of Physical Chemistry, University of Edinburgh Ms N Milne, MSP for North East Scotland, The Scottish Parliament Mr N Mitchison, Director of Group Human Resource, Lloyds TSB Mr A Morgan, MSP for Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, The Scottish Parliament Mr D Murray, Vice-President, Law Society of Scotland
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Ms M ONeill, Director, Age Concern Scotland Mr B Osborne, Ex-President, CILIP (Scottish Library Association) Ms M Owens, Director of Human Resources, Institute of Chartered Accountants Ms M Pattison, Head of Extending Working Life Strategy, Department for Work and Pensions Mr D Read, Council Member, RIBA Sir William Reid KCB FRSE, Former Chairman, Advisory Committee on Distinction Awards for Doctors and Dentists; Former Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman; Former Chairman, Mental Welfare Commission for Scotland; Former Chairman of Council, St Georges School for Girls Dr W D I Rolfe FRSE, Former Keeper of Geology, National Museums of Scotland Mr T Ross, President, Faculty of Actuaries Professor E A Salzen FRSE, Emeritus Professor of Psychology, University of Aberdeen Mr M Scanlan, Press Officer to Elspeth Attwooll MEP, European Parliament
Professor P J Sloane FRSE, Director of WELMERC, University of Wales Swansea; Former Vice-Principal & Dean of Faculty of Social Sciences & Law; Jaffrey Professor of Political Economy, University of Aberdeen Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT, FBA FRSE, President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh. Former Principal & Vice-Chancellor, University of Edinburgh Mr S Tombs, Chief Executive, Royal Incorporation of Architects Ms S Walker, Events Officer, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Dr C D Waterston FRSE, Former Keeper, Department of Geology, Royal Scottish Museum Mr David Watt, Director, The Institute of Directors Mr D Watson, Area Manager, Reach Mrs D Wilson, Retired Teacher Mr A Young, Policy Editor, The Herald Mr S Young, Senior Political Consultant, Institution of Civil Engineers
Speakers and members of the Organising Committee are denoted by italics.
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APPENDIX F - PROGRAMME
09:30 Registration and coffee 09.45 Introduction & Welcome Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT FBA PRSE, President, Royal Society of Edinburgh. 09.50 Government Stratgey for Age Diversity in Employment and over 50s Employment. Ms Mary Pattison, Head of Extending Working Life Strategy, Department for Work and Pensions. 10.10 Q & A 10.20 Coffee 11.00 Introduction Sir David Carter FRSE, Vice-President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh; Former Chief Medical Officer, Scottish Executive. 11.10 Case Studies Chaired by Professor Sally Brown FRSE, Professor of Education, University of Stirling. Mrs Deirdre Wilson Retired Teacher Dr George Cooper Retired Dentist Mr Norman Mitchison Lloyds TSB 11.40 Briefing - Panel Session Chaired by Sir David Carter FRSE Demographic Predictions and Health Dr Harry Burns, Director of Public Health, Greater Glasgow NHS Board The Economic Consequences of an Ageing Population Professor Peter Sloane FRSE, Director, Welsh Economy Labour Market Evaluation Research Centre (WELMERC), University of Wales Swansea Attitudes to Ageing Professor Tom Kirkwood, Professor of Medicine, School of Clinical Medical Sciences, (Gerontology), University of Newcastle Charity Challenges Mr Norman Drummond, Chairman, Lloyds TSB Foundation for Scotland, Edinburgh The Role of Pensions and Saving Mr Tom Ross, President, Faculty of Actuaries 12.30 Discussion Session Chaired by Sir David Carter FRSE 13.00 Lunch 14.20 Report & Discussion Session Chaired by Sir David Carter FRSE 15.50 Tea 16.05 Ambition, Constraints & Action Chaired by Sir David Carter FRSE 16.35 Summary Lord Sutherland KT , President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh 16.55 Close
APPENDIX G - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Organising Committee is grateful to the Council of the Royal Society of Edinburgh for supporting the concept of this meeting and to the Senior Fellows of the Society who provided the initial inspiration. We are particularly grateful to the RSE Events team for making the necessary arrangements so efficiently and ensuring that all ran smoothly on the day. Finally we are greatly indebted to our speakers and to all those who participated in the discussion.
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The Royal Society of Edinburgh
The Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) is Scotlands National Academy of Science & Letters. An independent body with charitable status, its multidisciplinary fellowship of 1300 men and women of international standing represents a knowledge resource for the people of Scotland. Committed to its Royal Charter of 1783 for the advancement of learning and useful knowledge the Society recognises the important role it can play in todays Scotland. Working as part of the UK and within a global context, the RSE seeks to contribute to Scotlands social, economic and cultural wellbeing by: organising conferences and lectures for the specialist and for the general public on topics of national and international importance providing independent, expert advice to key decision makers in Scotland awarding over 1.5million annually to Scotlands top young academics to promote research in Scotland enabling leading Scottish-based researchers to collaborate with the best of their international counterparts Inspiring school children in classrooms from the Borders to the Northern Isles and promoting their interest in science, society and culture Producing academic journals of international standing
Full Details are available on the RSE Website, www.royalsoced.org.uk Tel. 0131 240 5000. Fax. 0131 240 5024
ISBN No 0 902198 14 9 Published April 2004 The Royal Society of Edinburgh 22-26 George Street, EDINBURGH, EH2 2PQ

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Royal Society of Edinburgh

Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT PRSE President, Royal Society of Edinburgh

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

1. SUMMARY AND HEADS FOR DISCUSSION

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

APPENDIX A - SYNDICATE DISCUSSIONS

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

APPENDIX B - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

131 107 82%

161 126 78%

203 135 67%

364 143 39%

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

APPENDIX C - SPEAKER BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

APPENDIX D - PARTICIPATING ORGANISATIONS

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

A Resource to be Harnessed : 23 January 2004

Speakers and members of the Organising Committee are denoted by italics.

A Royal Society of Edinburgh Symposium

The Royal Society of Edinburgh

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