SEA Main Final Report

FINALREPORT
Preparedforthe MekongRiverCommission
byICEMInternationalCentre forEnvironmentalManagement
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OFHYDROPOWERONTHE MEKONGMAINSTREAM
October2010
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|
Disclaimer
This document was prepared for the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) by ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management engaged to facilitate preparation of a Strategic Environment Assessment(SEA)ofproposalsformainstreamdamsintheLowerMekongBasin. While the SEA is undertaken in a collaborative process involving the MRC Secretariat, National Mekong Committeesofthefourcountriesaswellascivilsociety,privatesectorandotherstakeholders,thisdocument waspreparedbytheSEAConsultantteamtoassisttheSecretariataspartoftheinformationgatheringactivity. Theviews,conclusions,andrecommendationscontainedinthedocumentarenottobetakentorepresentthe viewsoftheMRC.AnyandalloftheMRCviews,conclusions,andrecommendationswillbesetforthsolelyin theMRCreports. ForfurtherinformationontheMRCinitiativeonSustainableHydropower(ISH)andtheimplementationofthe SEAofproposedmainstreamdevelopmentscanbefoundontheMRC website:http://www.mrcmekong.org/ish/ish.htmandhttp://www.mrcmekong.org/ish/SEA.htm TheMRCfollowingpositiononmainstreamdamsisprovidedontheMRCwebsitein2009.
MRC position on the proposed mainstream hydropower dams in the LowerMekongBasin
TwelvehydropowerschemesarebeingstudiedbyprivatesectordevelopersforthemainstreamoftheMekong River. The 1995 Mekong Agreement requires that such projects are discussed extensively among all four countriespriortoanydecisionbeingtaken.Thatdiscussion,facilitatedbyMRC,willconsiderthefullrangeof social, environmental and crosssector development impacts within the Lower Mekong Basin. So far, one proposedmainstreamprojecthasreachedthestageofnotificationandpriorconsultationrequiredunderthe Mekong Agreement. MRC has already carried out extensive studies on the consequences for fisheries and peopleslivelihoodsandthisinformationiswidelyavailable,seeforexamplereportofanexpertgroupmeeting on dams and fisheries. MRC is undertaking the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the proposed mainstream dams to provide a broader understanding of the opportunities and risks of such development. Dialogueontheseplannedprojectswithgovernments,civilsocietyandtheprivatesectorisbeingfacilitatedby MRCandallcommentsreceivedarebeingconsidered.

Producedby: Producedfor: Copyright: Citation: More information:
ICEMAustralia MekongRiverCommission 2010MekongRiverCommission ICEM,2010,MRCStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA)ofhydropowerontheMekong mainstream,Hanoi,VietNam. www.icem.com.au|http://www.mrcmekong.org/ish/SEA.htm
Coverimages:
ICEMAustralia InternationalCenterforEnvironmentalManagement 14AWallisAvenue, GlenIris,Victoria3146, Australia MekongRiverCommission,2010;ZebHogan,2009; PeterJohnMeynell,2010,PeterWard,2003
A b o u tthe S E Ao fHydropowero n the Mekong mainstream

TheMekongRiverCommission(MRC)isanintergovernmentalriverbasinorganizationthatprovidesthe institutionalframeworktoimplementthe1995MekongAgreementforregionalcooperationintheMekong Basin.TheGovernmentsofCambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNamsignedtheAgreementonthe CooperationfortheSustainableDevelopmentoftheMekongRiverBasin.Theyagreedonjointmanagementof theirsharedwaterresourcesbycooperatinginaconstructiveandmutuallybeneficialmannerforsustainable development,utilization,conservationandmanagementoftheMekongRiverBasinwaterandrelated resources. PovertyalleviationasacontributiontotheUNMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsisalsoapriority.Thetwoupper statesoftheMekongRiverBasin,thePeople'sRepublicofChinaandtheUnionofMyanmar,aredialogue partnerstotheMRC. Inaregionundergoingrapidchangeandeconomicgrowth,theMRCconsidersthedevelopmentofhydropower ontheMekongmainstreamasoneofthemostimportantstrategicissuesfacingtheLowerMekongregion. ThroughtheknowledgeembeddedinallMRCprograms,theMRChascommissionedthisStrategicEnvironment Assessment(SEA)toassistMemberstatestoworktogetherandmakethebestdecisionsforthebasin. TwelvehydropowerschemeshavebeenproposedfortheLao,LaoThaiandCambodianreachesoftheMekong mainstream.ImplementationofanyoralloftheproposedmainstreamprojectsintheLowerMekongBasin (LMB)couldhaveprofoundandwiderangingsocioeconomicandenvironmentalimpactsinallfourriparian countries. ThisSEAseekstoidentifythepotentialopportunitiesandrisks,aswellascontributionoftheseproposed projectstoregionaldevelopment,byassessingalternativemainstreamMekonghydropowerdevelopment strategies.InparticulartheSEAfocusesonregionaldistributionofcostsandbenefitswithrespecttoeconomic development,socialequityandenvironmentalprotection.Assuch,theSEAsupportsthewiderBasin DevelopmentPlanning(BDP)processbycomplementingtheMRCBDPassessmentofbasinwidedevelopment scenarioswithmoreindepthanalysisofpowerrelatedandcrosssectordevelopmentopportunitiesandrisksof theproposedmainstreamprojectsinthelowerBasin. TheSEAisbeingcoordinatedbyMRCscrosscuttingInitiativeforSustainableHydropower(ISH)workingwith allMRCprogrammes.TheSEAdirectlyenhancesthebaselineinformationandassessmentframeworkfor subsequentgovernmentreviewofprojectspecificEIAspreparedbydevelopers.ItalsoinformshowtheMRC canbestenhanceitssupporttoMemberCountrieswhentheformalprocessunderthe1995Mekong Agreementforpriorconsultationonanyindividualmainstreamproposalistriggered(i.e.theProceduresfor Notification,PriorConsultationandAgreementorPNPCA).TheSEAfindingsalsoinformstepsthatMRC programmesmayconsiderinthenextMRCStrategicPlanCycle(20112015)tohelpaddresstheknowledge gapsandthekeyareasofuncertaintyandriskconcerningproposedmainstreamdevelopments. TheSEAbeganinMay2009andwascompleted16monthslaterwiththesubmissionofthefinalreportand recommendationsinSeptember2010.Thisdocumentisthefinalinaseriesofdocumentsarisingfroman intensiveprogramofconsultationsintheLowerMekongBasinanddetailedexpertanalysisoftheissues associatedwithdevelopinghydropowerontheMekongmainstream.TheSEAdocumentshavebeen progressivelymadeavailableforpublicandcriticalreview,sothatstakeholderengagementcouldcontributeto theSEAinameaningfulway.AfulllistofdocumentsisavailableontheSEApagesoftheMRCwebsite. 4
TheSEATeamincludes: ICEM DrJeremyCarewReid TeamLeader&ClimateChangeSpecialist MrPeterJohnMeynell EIA&NaturalSystemsSpecialist DrEricBaran FisheriesSpecialist(WorldFishCentre) DrElizabethMann SocialSystemsSpecialist Prof.PeterWard HydropowerEngineer&PrincipalHydrologist MrJohnSawdon Socioeconomist DrBenoitLaPlante Environmentaleconomist DrCarlosYermoli PowerSectorEngineer MrCongAnTranh GISSpecialist MrTarekKetelsen ProjectCoordinator&hydrologist DrApichartAnukularmphai ThaiTeamLeader&WaterResourceEngineer DrSuppakornChinvanno Thaisocioeconomist(SEASTART) DrKanokwanManorom Thailivelihoodsspecialist(MSSRC) MrsPiyathipEawpanich Thaicoordinator DrNguyenHuuThien VietNamTeamLeader&wetlandsystemsspecialist DrNguyenXuanNguyen VietNamEconomicsystemsspecialist DrNguyenVanSan VietNamterrestrialsystemsspecialist MsNguyenThiNga VietNamcoordinator MrMengMonyrak CambodiaTeamLeader&aquaticsystemsspecialist MrTryThuon Cambodialivelihoodsspecialist MrPhaknakhoneRattana LaoTeamLeaderandinfrastructurespecialist MrSaeSenpaty Laolivelihoodsresearcher MrBounheuangPhantasith LaoNaturalsystemsspecialist TheSEAteamwishtoacknowledgetheveryimportantsupporttheyhavereceivedfrommorethan100 governmentandnongovernmentagenciesandorganisationsoftheLowerMekongBasin.Theireffortsin providinginformation,shapingtheSEAsscopeandreviewingprogresshavebeencriticaltothesuccessofthe 16monthassessmentprocess. Inparticular,theSEAteamwishestoacknowledgethesupportofthefourNationalMekongCommitteesof Cambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNamfortheireffortsinfacilitatingconsultations,andalsothetechnical programmesoftheMekongRiverCommissionSecretariatforprovidingtheSEAteamwiththewealthof resourcesandinformationavailablewithintheSecretariat. SpecialthanksareextendedtotheMRCInitiativeonSustainablehydropower(ISH)forthekeyrolethatit playedtocoordinatetheSEAworkwithintheMRCSSecretariatandMRCsystem,andtheprocessofoutreach toMRCstakeholders.
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|CONTENTS
CONTENTS
Summary 8 1 HydropowerprojectsontheLancangRiver................................................................................. 26 2 ProposedLMBmainstreamprojects ............................................................................................ 27
2.1 Groupingsofmainstreamprojects Option1DecidenottoproceedwiththeLMBmainstreamprojects. Option2DeferreddecisiononallLMBmainstreamdamsforasetperiod Option3GradualdevelopmentofLMBmainstreampower Option4MarketdrivendevelopmentofproposedLMBmainstreamprojects decidingonthestrategicoption SEAobjectives StepsintheSEAprocess SEAconsultations&documentation StagesinmainstreamMekongprojectplanning MRCProceduresforNotification,PriorConsultationandAgreement LMBcountriessustainabilityprinciplesappliedinSEA 28 32 33 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 41 41
StrategicoptionsforLMBcountriesinconsideringthemainstreamprojectproposals............32
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
TheSEAofproposedLMBmainstreamprojects.......................................................................... 35
4.1 4.2 4.3
ThedevelopmentplanningcontextfortheSEA .......................................................................... 38
5.1 5.2 5.3
MekongHydropowerdevelopmentscenarios............................................................................. 43 6.1 SEAAssessmentmethodology 44 7 Powersystems .............................................................................................................................. 45 7.1 Baseline 45 7.2 Impactsassessment 49 8 Economicsystems ......................................................................................................................... 54 8.1 Baseline 55 8.2 Impactsassessment 57 9 Hydrology&sedimentregime...................................................................................................... 64 9.1 Baseline 65 9.2 Impactsassessment 70 10 Terrestrialsystems........................................................................................................................ 81 10.1 Baseline 81 10.2 Impactsassessment 83 11 Aquaticsystems ............................................................................................................................ 86 11.1 Baseline 86 11.2 Impactsassessment 89 12 Fisheries.........................................................................................................................................95 12.1 Baseline 95 12.2 Impactsassessment 98 13 Socialsystems ............................................................................................................................. 106 13.1 Baseline 106 13.2 Impactsassessment 108 14 Navigation ...................................................................................................................................115 14.1 Baseline 115 14.2 Impactsassessment 116 15 Climatechange............................................................................................................................ 120 15.1 Baseline 120 15.2 Impactsassessment 122
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|CONTENTS
Nationalworkinggroupimpactassessments ............................................................................ 123 Summaryofimpactsignificance&mitigationpotential ........................................................... 125 Thebigstrategicissues ............................................................................................................... 128 Conclusions..................................................................................................................................130 19.1 Uncertaintiesonstrategicconcerns 130 19.2 Powergeneration 132 19.3 Economicdevelopment&povertyalleviation 133 19.4 Ecosystemsintegrity&diversity 133 19.5 Fisheries&foodsecurity 134 19.6 SocialsystemsLivelihoods&livingcultures 134 19.7 Summaryofconclusions 134 20 Neededactionslinkedtoeachstrategicoption ........................................................................ 135 21 ThemainrecommendationoftheSEA ...................................................................................... 137 22 Recommendationforstrategicoption2Deferment .............................................................. 137 22.1 Defermentasacreativeandproductivestrategyformainstreamsustainabledevelopment 137 22.2 Roadmapforthedefermentperiod 138 22.3 SourcingAlternativeenergysources 138 22.4 Mekongmainstreamplan 138 22.5 Institutions&capacity 139 22.6 Makinghydropowersustainable 139 22.7 Thetenyeardefermenttimeframe 140 23 ImplicationsofchoosingstrategicOption1NoLMBMainstreamdams............................... 140 24 ImplicationsofchoosingstrategicOptions3or4Gradual&marketdrivendevelopment..141 25 Settingprioritiesinimplementingrecommendations .............................................................. 142 25.1 Studiesrequired 142 25.2 Policy&guidancerequired 143 25.3 Institutionalarrangementsandcapacitybuilding 143 25.4 Improvementsinhydropowerdesignandmitigationmeasures 143 25.5 Environmental&socialsafeguards 144 26 RecommendationsfortheMekongRiverCommission ............................................................. 145 26.1 Cambodia 145 26.2 LaoPDR 146 26.3 Thailand 146 26.4 VietNam 146 27 RecommendationsfortheMekongRiverCommission ............................................................. 147 27.1 ThePNPCAprocess 147 27.2 Basinplanningprocess 148 27.3 Guidance&standards 149 27.4 AMekongfund 149 28 RecommendationsfortheSEAreport&followupconsultation ............................................. 150 AnnexI:SalientfeaturesoftheproposedLMBmainstreamprojects ............................................. 151 AnnexII:Listofstakeholdersconsulted............................................................................................ 152 AnnexIII:Mainstreampoweralternatives....................................................................................... 157 AnnexIV:Recommendedstudies...................................................................................................... 159 AnnexV:PolicyandGuidancerecommendations ............................................................................ 162 AnnexVI:Institutionalandcapacitybuildingrecommendations .................................................... 165 AnnexVII:Hydropowerdesignandmitigationrecommendations.................................................. 168 AnnexVIII:EnvironmentalandSocialsafeguardsrecommendations ............................................. 173 AnnexIX:ReferenceList.....174
16 17 18 19
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWERSEA|FINALREPORT|SUMMARY
SUMMARY
TheMekongRiverisoneofthelastlargeriversonEarthnotdammedformostofitslength,andtheonlyriver stillflowingfreelytotheseathroughfiveofsixripariancountriesMyanmar,LaoPDR,Thailand,Cambodia andVietNam.ThemainstreaminChinaisdammedbythefirstfourprojectsinaplannedcascadeofupto8 storagehydropowerprojects.1Since2006,interestinhydropowerhasescalatedintheLowerMekongBasin (LMB)accompaniedbyincreasingprivatesectorinvestmentinpowerinfrastructure.MostMekongRiver tributarieshavecascadesofdamsinplaceorplannedwithsome71projectsexpectedtobeoperationalby 2030.Overthepastfewyears,investorsanddevelopersmostlyfromChina,Malaysia,ThailandandVietNam havesubmittedproposalsfortwelvehydropowerprojectsfortheLMBmainstreamdrawingonconceptsfrom pastdecades(FigureS1).2Thoseproposalsareamongthelargestandmostsignificantdevelopmentsever consideredbyLMBcountriesforthebasin. Tenproposedmainstreamprojectswouldinvolveconstructingdamsacrosstheentireriverchannel8inLao PDR,twoofwhichareontheLaoThailandreachesofthemainstreamand2inCambodia.Anothertwo projectsneartheKhoneFallsinLaoPDRinvolveeitherpartialdamming(DonSahong)oradiversion(Thakho). InYunnanProvinceofChina,eightdamsspanningtheLancangRiveralreadyexist,areunderconstructionor areplanned.ItisChinasdecisiontodeveloptheMekongRiverinYunnanProvinceandtheresultingchanges inseasonalflowswhichhaseasedpastreluctancetodosointheLMBandmadethemainstreamprojects moreeconomicallyviable.3Otherinternationalfactors,suchasreducedgreenhousegasemissionscompared tofossilfuelgenerationoptions,andeffortstoreducerelianceonimportedenergyandincreasesupply diversitymakehydropoweranincreasinglyattractiverenewableenergyresourceforLMBcountries. FigureS1:ProposedMekongmainstreamhydropowerprojectsintheLMBandYunnanProvince,China
VIETNAM
Atlatestinformation,Mengsong,themostdownstreamprojectintheChinesecascade,hasbeenpostponedwithoutfirm datesetforconstruction. 2 Elevenofthe12LMBmainstreamprojectsarebasedonpreliminaryfeasibilitydesignsdevelopedbytheMekong Secretariatin1994andbuildingonearlierconceptsforMekongmainstreamhydropowerbeginninginthe1960s. 3 ThestoragereservoirsinChina,allowforwatertoberetainedduringthewetandreleasedduringthedryseason providingamoreuniformyearroundflowpatternfordownstreamhydropoweroperators.
ThegovernmentsofLaoPDRandCambodiahavebeenreviewingthemainstreamproposalsmainlyona projectbyprojectbasis.LaoPDRhascommissionedanoptimisationstudyforthereachesoftheMekong affectedbyacascadeofsixdamsaboveVientiane.ApartfromtheirconsiderationintheMRCsRegionalBasin Planningprocess,theseprojectshavebeenmovingforwardwithoutanoverallspatialorintegrated developmentplanfortheRivereitherwithineachcountryoratregionallevel.4Intheabsenceofsucha guidingframework,thenationalpowerandenvironmentagenciesareapplyingtheirprojectspecificreview proceduresandstandards,includingEnvironmentalImpactAssessments(EIA),priortomakinganational decisionineachcase. Atregionallevel,LMBcountrieshaveadoptedaprotocolunderthe1995MekongAgreementwhichcommits themtonotifytheirneighborsofproposedmainstreamprojectswhentheyhavesufficientinformation,then consultandreachagreementonwhetherornottoproceed,andifso,underwhatconditions.Thatfull ProcedureforNotification,PriorConsultationandAgreement(PNPCA)wastriggeredforthefirsttimeon22 September2010withtheofficialnotificationfromLaoPDRoftheproposedXayaburimainstreamproject.The mainstreamhydropowerprojectproposalswillbeanimportanttestforthePNPCAandregionalcooperationin implementingthe1995MekongAgreement. THESEA Itistherelativelysuddenrevivalofmanyproposalsatthesametimeandforthesamesharedriverthatled LMBcountriestocallforaStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA)ofall12proposalstobeconducted undertheMRCframeworkofcooperation.SEAsaddressthebroaderstrategicissuesusuallyrelatingtomore thanoneproject.SEAsfollowsimilarstepstoEIAsbuthavemuchlargerboundariesintermsoftime,space andsubjectcoverage.TheSEAisatooltoexaminethebroadstrategicconcernswhichneedtoberesolved anddecidedpriortomakingprojectspecificdecisions.Inthiscase,theSEAcommissionedbytheMRCwas askedtoprovideanunderstandingoftheimplicationsofmainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentand recommendationsonwhetherandhowtheproposedprojectsshouldbestbepursued.TheSEAwasintended asinputtothePNPCAprocess,tofeedintotheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlan(BDP),andultimatelytosupport nationaldecisionsconcerningthemainstreamproposals. TheSEAfocusesonproposalslocatedinthreedistincthydroecologicalzonesandassessestheminfive differentdamgroupings:(i)allproposedLMBmainstreamdams,(ii)theclusterof6UpperLaoprojects upstreamofVientiane,(iii)thetwoMiddleLaoprojectsimmediatelyupanddownstreamofPakse(BanKoum, LatSua),(iv)thetwosmallerLowerLaoprojectsatKhoneFalls(DonSahong,Thakho),and(v)thetwo CambodianProjectsupstreamofKratie(StungTreng,Sambor). TheSEAhasruninfourphasesover16monthsfromMay2009(i)ascopingphasetodefinethekeystrategic issuesofconcerntoMekongRiverdevelopment,(ii)abaselineassessmenttodescribepasttrendsinthose issuesandtheirprojectionto2030withoutmainstreamhydropower,(iii)animpactassessmentoftheeffects ofmainstreamhydropoweronthosetrends,and(iv)aphasetoidentifywaysofavoidingandmitigatingthe risksandenhancingthebenefits.TheSEAhasbeenintensivelyconsultativeinvolvingover60lineagencies,40 NGOsandcivilsocietyorganizationsandsome20internationaldevelopmentorganizationsinmeetingsand workshops.TheSEAprocessalsoincludedtheparticipationofChinathroughthehighlevelEcosystemStudy CommissionforInternationalRivers(ESCIR). TheviewsandopinionsexpressedduringtheconsultationshaveguidedandshapedtheSEAthroughall assessmentphases.InthisreporttheSEAteamhasdistilledandanalysedtheviewsandinformationof governmentexperts,lineagenciesandthenongovernmentcommunity.Whenadivergenceofviewsremains onkeyissuessuchastheeconomiccostsandbenefitsofthemainstreamproposals,theSEAteamdrawsits ownconclusionsbasedontheevidencebeforeit. SomeimportantissuesraisedbystakeholderswerebeyondthescopeoftheSEAtocriticallyreview.They wouldhaverequiredadditionalcomprehensiveresearch.Forexample,thereremainsconsiderabledebateand divergenceofopiniononenergydemandprojectionsforeachcountryandfortheregion(FigureS2).Inthe caseofVietNamsfuturenationalenergydemandforexample,estimatesbytheADBGMSEnergyFutures studybasecasefor2025represent54%ofofficialgovernmentestimates,adiscrepancyequivalenttoaround
TheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlan(BDP)representsanimportantpioneeringprocessinrecentyearstocoordinate regionalplanning.
3.5timestheannualpowerproductionfromthe12mainstreamprojects.5Similarlythequestionof alternativeswasafundamentalconsiderationpresentedanddiscussedwithSEAstakeholdersbutrequires muchmorework.Insuchcases,theSEAreportsthelatestofficialfiguresandtheirsources,providesan overviewofthesituation,drawsattentiontoremaininguncertaintiesandidentifiesprioritiesforfurther detailedanalysis. FigureS2:LMBRegionaldemandforecaststo2025Comparisonofofficialgovernment&ADBGMSEnergy FuturesStudyprojections
SEAFINDINGS TheSEAbaselineandimpactassessmentestablishedthat96%ofpowerdemandto2025stemsfromThailand andVietNamandthosetwocountriesaretargetedtopurchasecloseto90%ofthepowergeneratedbythe mainstreamprojects.IfThailandandVietNamdecidednottopurchasemainstreampower,theprojectsall designedforexportwouldbeveryunlikelytogoahead. ThemainfindingsoftheSEAaresummarizedbelowaccordingtowhatgovernmentandnongovernment stakeholdersdefinedasthebigstrategicissuesrelatingtomainstreamdevelopment.Theseissueswere identifiedbyhundredsofnationalparticipantsinthenationalmeetings,roundtablesandregionalworkshops. Theyare: Powersecurityandgenerationincludingrevenue,tradeandforeigninvestment Economicdevelopmentandpovertyalleviation Ecosystemsintegrityanddiversityaquatic,terrestrial,hydrologicaldynamicsandsediment/nutrient transport. Fisheriesandfoodsecurity(includingagriculture) Socialsystemslivelihoodsandthelivingculturesofaffectedcommunities TheSEAconsidersthespecificimpacts(positiveandnegative)oftheproposedmainstreamdams.Those impactsareadditionaltotheeffectsofthecommitted41largehydropowerschemesonMekongRiver tributariesby2015,the8storageschemesintheLancangMekongbasininChina,aswellascumulative impactsofothernondampressuresontheMekongsnaturalresourcesystems.6 POWERGENERATIONANDSECURITY Overthepastfewdecades,theMekongregionhasexperiencedhighratesofeconomicgrowth.From1993to 2005,economicgrowthandelectricitydemandincreasedatanaverageannualrateofabout8%,oneofthe
IRMconsultantforecastin2008republishedin2009intheADBreportBuildingaSustainableEnergyFuture,The GreaterMekongSubregionin2009. 6 TheDefiniteFutureScenario(DF)oftheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlan,forexample,seesupto41largehydropower schemesonLMBtributarysystemsby2015,inadditiontothemajorhighdamschemesintheLancangMekongbasinin China.Thisisbasedonthenumberofexisting,underconstructionandcommittedprojects
10
highestintheworldoverasustainedperiod.WhiletherateofelectricitydemandgrowthintheMekongis high,ithasbeengrowingfromalowpercapitalevel.7 Powerdemandisexpectedtogrowat67%annuallyto2025asLMBeconomiesdiversifyandpopulations grow,withVietNamandThailandexpandinggridgenerationtomeetthisdemandandCambodiaandLaoPDR graduallyforminginterconnectednationalgrids(FigureS2).Nationalgridsupplyoptionsincludehydropower, renewableenergies,nuclearpower,conventionalthermalpoweranddemandsidemanagement. ThereismassivepotentialforhydropowerintheGreaterMekongSubregion(GMS)with176,350250,000 MWtechnicallyfeasible.ThefourLMBcountriesofCambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNamhavean estimatednationalhydropowerpotentialintheorderof50,00064,750MW,ofwhich30,000MWisavailable intheLowerMekongBasin.IncludingtheLancangRiverinYunnanProvince,thewholeMekongBasinhasa hydropowerpotentialof53,000MW. Accordingtocurrentdesigns,the12LMBmainstreamdamsrepresentupto14,697MW,or2328%ofthe nationalhydropowerpotentialofthefourLMBcountriesand58%ofthetotalhydropowerpotentialinthe GMSregion.Threeclearregionalandnationaltrendsfavouranexpansionofhydropowerscontributiontothe GMSpowersector:(i)increaseinregionalcooperation,tradeandplanning,(ii)strongnationaldesiresto diversifyfuelsourcesandreducedependencyonfiniteindigenousfossilfuelreserves,and(iii)international trendtoreduceGHGemissionsforthepowersector.Threeclearregionalandnationaltrendsfavouran expansionofhydropowerscontributiontotheGMSpowersector:(i)increaseinregionalcooperation,trade andplanning,(ii)strongnationaldesirestodiversifyfuelsourcesandreducedependencyonfiniteindigenous fossilfuelreserves,and(iii)internationaltrendtoreduceGHGemissionsforthepowersector. Ifall12mainstreamdamsweredevelopedtheywouldbringsubstantialincreasestopowergeneratedand generationcapacityintheregion.PeakdemandrequirementforecastsforLMBcountriesin2025total 130,366MW.TheLMBmainstreamdamswouldrepresent11%ofadditionalLMBinstalledcapacity8required between2015and2025.WithoutthetwoCambodianmainstreamprojects,thispercentagewoulddropto9% and7%ifonlytheUpperLaocascade(PakBengtoPakChom)waspursued. TableS1:NationalpowerdemandforecastsforLMBcountriesby2025 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam TOTAL/ Regional
PeakDemand(MW) 2,401 2,696 53,824 72,445 130,366 NationalEnergyDemand(GWh/yr) 14,302 16,060 339,479 450,618 820,458 LMBmainstreamdamsMeanAnnualEnergy(GWh/yr) 19,740 46,054 65,794 PercentcontributionofLMBmainstreamhydropowerto 13.8% 28.7% 11.6% 4.4% 8.3% nationaldemand* PercentcontributionofLMBmainstreamhydropowerto 11.3% peakdemand *itisassumedthat90%ofLMBmainstreampowergenerationisforexporttoThailandandVietNam,with10%for domesticdemand
The12mainstreamdamsrepresent68%oftheprojectedLMBpowerdemandfor2025,whichisequivalent totheexpectedLMBenergydemandgrowthrateexperiencedinoneyearbetween2015and2025.The official2025forecastsestimateLMBregionalenergydemandtobe820TWh/y,ofwhichtheLMBmainstream projectscouldcompetitivelysupply65TWh/yragainstotherformsofgenerationinexportmarkets.Actual exports(toThailandandVietNam)fromLMBmainstreamprojectsarelikelytototal53TWh/yr(twothirds fromLaoPDRandonethirdfromCambodia)assomepowerwouldbeconsumedinthehostcountries.Ifall LMBmainstreamprojectswentahead,theywouldmeetintheorderof4.4%ofthenationalpowerdemandin Vietnam,11.6%ofthedemandinThailand,13.8%ofthedemandinCambodia,and28.7%ofthedemandin LaoPDRby2025(TableS1).9 Hydrocarbons(i.e.,coal,naturalgasandoil)nowdominategeneration(about85%)buthydropowerwill continuetobeacriticalcomponentinthefutureenergysupplymixwithRenewableEnergy(REs),Demand SideManagement(DSM)andEnergyEfficiency(EE)complementingtheexpansionofconventionalgeneration.
7
By2008,electricityutilizationintheGreaterMekongSubregion(GMS)(940kWh/person/yr)hadreachedabouttwo thirdsofthedevelopingworldaverage 8 InstalledcapacitymeasuredinWatts(W),ormultiplesthereof,istheratedmaximumpowergenerationcapacityof installedgenerators. 9 Assuming90%isexportedtoThailandandVietnam
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LaoPDRgainsmostfromtheoverallpowerbenefitsdirectlyassociatedwithmainstreamhydropower.Lao PDRislikelytoreceivemorethan70%ofoverallpowerbenefitsincludingrevenuesandavoidedthermalcosts, withCambodiaandThailandreceiving1112%andVietNamreceiving5%.Withoutmainstreamhydropower, LaoPDRhassufficienthydropowerpotentialonMekongtributaries,inthemediumterm,tocontinue generatinghealthyexportearningsandencourageinvestmentintoitsdynamiceconomy. Intermsofleastcostpowersupply,mainstreamprojectsaremostcriticalfortheCambodianpowersector, particularlyinthelongtermwhenplantsaretransferredtonationalauthorities.Currently,national electricitydemandisalmostentirelydependentonimportedfossilfuelsandCambodiahasthemostlimited rangeofalternativesformeetingnationalpowerdemand.TributarypotentialismuchmorelimitedthanLao PDR.Inthemedium,thereareindicationsthatoffshoreareasmayholdmoderatelevelsoffossilfuel reserves.10Asyettherearenoofficialestimatesofprovenorrecoverableamounts.Whileonlyasmallpartof theestimatedreservesarelikelytobeeconomicallyrecoverable,andsovereigntyiscontestedwithThailand, theyrepresentanimportantopportunityfordevelopmentofthedomesticenergysectorforbothcountries.11 MainstreamhydropowerislesssignificantforthepowersectorsofThailandandVietNam.Mainstream schemeswillhaveaminorimpactonelectricityprices(lessthan1.5%)andlimitedeffectontheenergysupply strategiesofthosecountriesduetothesizeoftheirpowersectors. Therewillbesomegainsintheregionalpowersectorfromclimatechangemitigationpotentialthroughthe netreductionofgreenhousegasemissionsfromthermalpowergenerationoffsetbyhydropower.12 Establishingeffectiveinstitutionalarrangementsandrulesunderwhichprivatelyrunmainstreamprojects couldoperateiscomplexandhasfarreachinginternationalimplications.Settingtheguidingcriteriaforthe operationofmanymainstreamdamsononeriveralsohasinternationalconsequencesandwouldideally involveallfourLMBcountries,aswellasChinaandMyanmar.Thesituationismorecomplexforthetwo projectsontheLaoThaiborder,whichwouldrequiresigningofbilateralpoliticalprotocols,establishmentof basicprinciplesandthenaninternationalcommissioneitherthroughtheMRCoraprojectauthorityinvolving thetwonations. Inadditiontoprojectspecificinstitutionalrequirementstherewillbeaneedforajointoperationbodythat would,atleast,setspecificrulesforhourlyflowmodificationand,ideally,performoptimizedoperation planningtoderivemaximumvaluefromthecascadeandminimumadverseimpacts. ECONOMICDEVELOPMENTANDPOVERTYALLEVIATION Ifall12mainstreamprojectsweretogoahead,LaoPDRwouldreceive70%ofexportrevenues(USD2.6 billion/year)generatedbythemainstreamdams,withCambodiareceiving30%(USD1.2billion/year).Lao PDRwouldbenefitmost,primarilybecauseofthenumberofprojectslocatedthere.TheUpperLaocluster (PakBengtoPakChom)representstwothirdsofthenationalpowerbenefit.Duringtheperiodofthe hydropowerconcessions,thebulkofthosebenefitsforLaoPDRandCambodiawouldnotaccruetothe countryasawholeortherespectivegovernmentstheywouldaccruetothedevelopersandfinanciersofthe projects.Thesameistrueofexportrevenues.Whilesignificant,netrevenuesforhostgovernmentsareless thanthelargegrossrevenueandpowerbenefitfiguressuggest.Theyarelikelytobebetween2631%ofgross revenuesduringtheperiodoftheconcessionagreement.LaoPDRandCambodiawouldbeunableto constructtheseprojectswithoutprivateinvestment.Afterthelikely25yearconcessionperiodhasfinished andtheownershipoftheprojectsistransferredtothehostcountriesthetotalfinancialbenefitofthese projectswillaccruetothehostcountries. InLaoPDR,theuseofhydropowerrevenuestofundinfrastructureandsocialdevelopmentexpenditures (includingruralroads,healthandeducationspending)isalreadymandatedinNationalSocioeconomic DevelopmentPlanandNationalGrowthandPovertyEradicationStrategies. ThelargeamountofFDItoCambodiaandLaoPDRmainstreamhydropowerprojectsimply(approaching USD25billionifall12projectsweretogoahead)islikelytoleadtoasignificanteconomicstimulustothe
10 11
IMF,2007,IMFCountryReportNo.07/386,Cambodia:StatisticalAppendix CurrentalternativesavailableforCambodiandomesticbulksupplyareimportedcoalandimportedpower(e.g.Lao hydropower).Initspowersystemsassessment,theSEAonlycoverscurrentlyavailablesources 12 Totheextentthatthe65,000GWh/yrofenergyfrommainstreamavoidsequivalentgenerationfromthermalpower stations(e.g.coal,naturalgasandoil)thecurrentlyaccountforabout85%ofLMBpowergeneration.
12
hostcountriesandtheregionduetothedemandforadditionalinputs(labour,constructionmaterials, engineeringinputsandservices).Additionalgovernmentspendingduetoincreasedrevenuesfrom hydropowercouldalsotocontributetothisstimulus. LaoPDRislikelytoseeeconomicgrowthduetomainstreamhydropowerinvestment.Thestimuluseffects arelikelytobesignificanteventhoughatleast50%ofFDIflowsassociatedwithmainstreamhydropower projectsareestimatedtobespentoninputsfromoutsidethehostcountry. Associatedrisksincludethedevelopmentofmacroeconomicimbalancesduetoaboominghydropower sector,particularlyinLaoPDRgiventhesizeofthehydropowerinvestmentsrelativetothecountryseconomy, andincreasedgovernmentdebtrelatedtothefundingofequitystakesinthehydropowerprojects.The natureandextentofopportunitiesandrisksvarygreatlyduringthelifeofamainstreamproject. Mainstream projects would have significant net negative impacts on the fisheries and agriculture sectors. ThelossesinfisheriesdirectlyduetoLMBmainstreamdams,ifallweretoproceed,areexpectedtobeworth USD476million/year,excludingeffectsonthecoastalanddeltafisherieswhicharelikelytobesignificantbut have not been studied. Fiftyfour percent of all riverbank gardens on the Mekong River will be lost, which combinedwithlossesinagriculturallandformainstreamreservoirsandtransmissionlinesisexpectedtobe worth USD 25.1 million/year. Reduced nutrient loading will require an estimated USD 24million/year to maintaintheproductivityoffloodplainagriculture33%directlyduetoLMBmainstreamhydropower.Gains in reservoir fisheries and irrigation are expected to be worth USD 14million/year and USD 15.5 million/year respectively. Impactsonthefisheriesandagriculturesectorscanbeonlypartiallymitigated.Theproposedreservoirs wouldbecapableofproducingintheorderof10%ofthelostcapturefisheries.Theadverseimpactsonthe irrigationsectorcanbepartiallymitigatedifsignificantcapitalisinvestedtoreequiptheirrigationsectorfor useofreservoirwater.13 MainstreamhydropowergenerationprojectswouldcontributetoagrowinginequalityintheLMBcountries. Benefitsofhydropowerwouldaccruetoelectricityconsumersusingnationalgrids,developers,financiersand hostgovernments,whereasmostcostswouldbebornebypoorandvulnerableripariancommunitiesand someeconomicsectors.Benefitsarealsounevenlysharedbetweencountries.Ifallmainstreamprojectswere toproceed,VietNamandCambodiaarelikelytosuffernetshorttomediumtermlossesbecausethe combinedeffectsonfisheriesandagriculturewouldoutweighpowerbenefits. Intheshorttomediumtermpovertywouldbemadeworsebyanyoneofthemainstreamprojects, especiallyamongthepoorinruralandurbanriparianareas.Fishers,inparticular,areoverrepresentedin poorandvulnerableLMBcommunitieswhichwouldbeaffectedbyfisherieslosses.Poorerhouseholdswould alsobeadverselyaffectedbythedirectimpactsofhydropowerdevelopmentincludingresettlement,lossof land,andimpactsduringthecontractionperiod.Lossoffisheriesandassociatedproteinswouldleadto declinesinnutritionalhealthinLMBpopulations,particularlyinCambodiaandLaoPDRwhereupto30%of thenationalproteinsupplywouldbeatriskifallmainstreamdamsweretogoahead.Thesefoodsecurity issuesarelikelytoaffectboththeruralandurbanpoor.Moreover,anyincreaseinruralpovertyislikelytoact asanotherpushfactorforruralurbanmigrationcompoundingurbanpovertyissues. Significantimprovementsinregionalcooperation,institutionalandregulatorycapacityareneededfor effectivemanagementofmainstreamprojectsandmitigationmeasures.Worldwidethereareanumberof benefitsharingmechanismsandmitigationmeasuresforaffectedeconomicsectorswhichhaveproven successfulunderspecificinstitutionalcontexts.Thesuccessofextensivemitigationmeasuresneededto addressrisksandopportunitiesandthefundingofsuchmeasures(e.g.nationaltolocalbenefitsharing,and transboundarybenefitsharingmechanisms)wouldbecontingentonbuildingsubstantiallyincreased institutional,administrativeandtechnicalcapacityinhostcountriesandregionallyintimefortheproject constructionandoperationsstartupdates.14 Thedevelopmentofmainstreamdamswouldimprovenavigationconditionsforlargervesselswhencoupled withsubstantialinvestmentinwaterwayinfrastructure,promotionofmultimodaltransportchainsand monitoringandevaluationofnavigationchannels,togetherwithastrongfinancialcommitmenttodevelop inlandwaterwaytransportintheUpperMekong.ExtensiveclearingofthechannelwaterwayupstreamofPak
13 14
Inmostcases,replacementofexistingirrigationshouldbefundedaspartofprojectcompensationcosts. Benefitsharing;especiallyrevenuesharingisimportanttoensurethebenefitsaccruingattheregionalornationallevel aretransferredtolocallevel.
13
BengwouldstillberequiredtoallowpassageandthemainnavigationroutefromPhnomPenhtothesea wouldexperiencegreaterchannelinstability,whichcouldbemanagedthroughasignificantincreaseinefforts tostabilisetheriverbanks.Connectivityforsmallfreightandpassengertransportwouldbereduced.No mitigationmeasuresarelikelytobeeconomicallyviableforsmalltransportandcommunityuse. ECOSYSTEMSINTEGRITYANDDIVERSITY ThemainstreamprojectswoulddegradethelongitudinalconnectivityoftheMekongecosystem, compartmentalisingitintosmallerandfarlessproductiveunits.Theproposedmainstreamhydropower representsafundamentalbreakfromthecurrentdynamicequilibriumoftheMekongRiverwhichconvertsthe immensepotentialandkineticenergyofthesystemintoawiderangeofecomorphologicalprocessesalongits entirelength. TheLMBmainstreamprojectsareproposedatatimewhentheMekonghydrologicalregimeisundergoinga periodofintensivechangedrivenbyrapidhydropowerdevelopmentontheLMBtributariesandontheUMB mainstreaminYunnanProvinceofChina.TheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldhavesignificantadditional basinwideeffectsonthefuturemovementofwaterandsedimentthroughtheMekongbasinsystem, includingthecoastalandoffshorezone. TheMekongRiverhasastrongfloodpulsecharacterisedbyfourdistinctseasonsandcorresponding fluctuationsinthewaterlevels.LMBtributaryandChinesehydropowerwilldisturbthetiminganddurationof theseseasons.WiththeLMBmainstreamprojects,upperreachesofZone2(i.e.ChiangSaentoLuang Prabang)andallreachesoftheMekonginundatedbythemainstreamreservoirswouldnolonger experiencetheecologicallyimportanttransitionseasons.AllotherreachesoftheMekongRiverwould experienceareductioninthedurationoftransitionseasonswhichplayanimportantroleintriggering biologicalprocesseswithinriverineandfloodplainhabitats. TheLMBmainstreamdamwallswouldbesufficientlyhighthatwaterlevelsinthereservoirswouldbeabove thehighesteverrecordedfortensofkilometersupstream.Changesinwaterlevelscouldbegreatly exacerbatedbytheoperationalstrategyoftheprojects.Peakingoperation(i.e.maximisingturbinedischarge whenthebuyingpriceforelectricitypeaksonceortwicedaily)couldgreatlyincreasethespeedatwhichwater levelsriseandthenumberoffluctuationsfromseasonaltodailyorevenhourlyevents.Thereisthepotential forhourlyspikesinwaterlevelofupto36mattownsandvillageslocated4050kmdownstream.Under unplannedandemergencyrelease,peakingeventscouldbelargerandcouldtravelthatdistancedownstream in12hoursgivinglittletimefornotification. Individualmainstreamprojectswouldnotaffectfloodedarea/durationoftheCambodiananddelta floodplains,norextentanddurationofsalineinstruction.Thecumulativeimpactsofallmainstreamprojects onthosefactorsrequiresfurtherstudygiventhattheymighthaveatotalstoragecapacityofseveralweeksor moredependingonhowtheprojectsareoperated. TheloadofsuspendedsedimentintheMekongRiverisestimatedat160165milliontonnes/year.Intheorder of50%oftheloadwillberemovedbystoragehydropowerprojectsinChinaandthe3Srivers.Withall12LMB mainstreamdamsthesedimentloadwouldbehalvedagaini.e.atKratieitwouldbe25%ofthecurrent load(~42milliontonnes/year).Thisreducedsuspendedloadwillhavesignificantimplicationsforthetransport ofnutrientswhichnaturallyfertilizetheTonleSapsystemand23,00028,000km2offloodplaininCambodian andVietNam,aswellasdestabilisingtheriverchannels,floodplainsandcoastlineoftheMekongDelta. Climatechangeaddsalayerofriskanduncertaintyinlongtermplanningwithbothpositiveandnegative potentialimpactsonthedevelopmentofhydropowerintheBasin.Climatechangewouldincreasethe likelihoodofextremeeventsduringthelifeofthemainstreamprojects,includingthosewhichrepresentthe thresholdofsafetydesignforthedams.Ifnotfullyaccountedforindamdesignsandsafetymeasures,the increasedlikelihoodofextremeeventswithclimatechangewouldincreasetheriskofdambreakandfailureof keyhydrauliccomponents(e.g.spillwaygates). Themainstreamprojectsarelikelytoresultinseriousandirreversibleenvironmentaldamage,lossesin longtermhealthandproductivityofnaturalsystemsandlossesinbiologicaldiversityandecological integrity.Thelargestimpactontheriverineterrestrialsystemwouldaffectwetlands.Almost40%ofthe MekongRiverswetlandsliewithinreachesoftheriverwhereprojectsarelocated17%ofwhichwouldbe permanentlyinundatedbytheLMBmainstreamprojects.
14
FigureS3:TheLMBmainstreamreservoirs:55%oftheMekongRiver(ChiangSaentoKratie)willbeconvertedinto
reservoirs
Themainstreamprojectswouldhaveasignificantlocalimpactonagriculturalproductivity.Around 135,000hawouldbeinundatedbythe11projectsandtakenfortransmissionlinesandaccessroads.Some 150,000haofriverbankgardens,agriculturallandsandirrigationschemeswouldbedirectlyaffectedbythe 996kmofreservoircreatedbythe11projectsbetweenChiangSaenandKratie(FigureS3).15Twentypercent ofaffectedagriculturallandswouldbepermanentlylostthroughinundationorclearing,whiletheuseand

15
The12thmainstreamprojectThakhodoesnothaveareservoirandwillnotresultininundationofland
15
productivityoftheremaining80%underirrigationschemeswouldexperienceincreasedcomplicationin managementandsystemperformance(e.g.waterlevelsvaryingatanhourlyordailytimestep)whichwould requireadditionalinvestmentstoovercome. TheLMBmainstreamdamswouldfundamentallyaffecttheintegrityandtheproductivityoftheMekong aquaticsystemby:(i)permanentlyinundatingthemajorityoftheriversaquatichabitats,(ii)severingatthe localleveltheseasonaldistinctionsoftheriverhydrology,and(iii)cuttingthetransportofsedimentand nutrientsbetweentheuplandareasandthefloodplains.Basedonlossofhabitatalone,themainstream projectswouldinducea1227%reductionintheprimaryproductivityoftheaquaticsystems(i.e.vegetal productivity),withimplicationsfortheoverallproductivityoftheriverandinthereservoirsthemselves. Consideringtheestimated75%reductioninnutrientloadingasacumulativeimpactofallthemainstream dams,primaryproductivitycouldreducetoasmallfractionofpresentvalueswithsevereimplicationsforthe aquaticfoodchain,fishhabitatandfisheries.Asaconservativeestimate,theLMBmainstreamprojectsare expectedtoberesponsibleforonethirdofthereductioninnutrientandsedimentloadsoftheMekongRiver. TheYunnancascadeandothertributarydevelopmentsexpectedby2030wouldberesponsiblefortheother twothirdsofthisreduction. Themainstreamprojectswouldhaveanegativeimpactonecosystemsofinternationalimportance,alarge numberofspecies,andanumberofgloballyendangeredspecieslikelyleadingtotheirextinction.Thelossof habitatswouldencouragetheproliferationofgeneralistspeciesthatdonotmigrateoverlongdistances,can breedwithinthebodyofthereservoiranddonotrequirespecialisedhabitatsorhydrologicaltriggersto inducespawning.Thespeciesrequiringthoseconditions(e.g.Pangasiidfishes)wouldexperienceasharp decline.Thefragmentationoftheriversystemwouldisolateaquaticpopulationsintopocketsleadingtoaloss ofspecies.Ifallmainstreamprojectsproceed,55%oftheMekongRiverbetweenChiangSaenandKratie wouldbeconvertedintoreservoir,shiftingtheenvironmentfromriverinetolacustrine(FigureS3).Atleast41 riverinefishspeciesfoundonlyinthemainstreamupstreamofVientianewouldbethreatened. ThelossinLMBbiodiversitywouldbeapermanentandirreplaceablegloballosswhichcouldnotbe compensated.MostimpactsoftheLMBmainstreamdamsontheaquaticecosystemswouldbeunavoidable. ExtractionofenergyforLMBmainstreamhydroelectricity(upto14,697MW)willreducetheavailableenergy forthenaturalecomorphologicalprocessesoftheMekongRiver.Consequently,mostoftheknockon impactsofthemainstreamprojectsrelatedtoMekonghydrology,geomorphology,habitatandsediment dynamicswouldbeunavoidable.Whereopportunitiesformitigationdoexist,theywouldrequirereductions inelectricitygenerationthroughalterationsinthedesign,operationsandmanagementoftheproposed projects,whichwouldneedenforcementbyanindependentauthoritywiththetechnicalcapacityand regulatorymandatetoenforcestandardsattheLMBorpreferablybasinwidelevel. Theimpactsonterrestrialecosystemsaregenerallymorelocallybasedandcanbemitigatedorcompensated bymeasuresforrehabilitationandrecreationofaffectedecosystemsandthroughconservationoffset programmes,tocompensateforpermanenthabitatlosses.Themostdifficultsystemstooffsetorrehabilitate wouldbeaffectedwetlands.Lossofmainstreamwetlandscouldnotbecompensatedorrecreated. FISHERIESANDFOODSECURITY Inariverbasinwhere70%ofcommunitiesareruralandwhereinlandfisheriesarethemostintensiveinthe world,foodsecurityandlivelihoodsarestilllargelybasedonriverdependentnaturalresources.Risksand lossesincurredbytheMekongterrestrialandaquaticecosystemstranslateintothreatstothelivelihoodsof millionsofpeopleprimarilythroughincreasingfoodinsecurityinthebasin.Ifnaturalresourcesproductivity isreduced,thecountrysmostatriskareCambodiaandLaoPDR. TheLMBmainstreamprojectsentertheBasinatatimewhentributaryhydropoweralreadythreatensthe diversityandsizeoftheMekongfishery.FishyieldintheMekongiscomprisedofatleast35%oflongdistance migrantspecieswhosemigrationswouldbebarredbydams.Themainstreamprojectswouldfundamentally underminetheabundance,productivityanddiversityoftheMekongfishresources,affectingthemillionsof ruralpeoplewhorelyonitfornutritionandlivelihoods. FigureS4showsthelossesinMekongfishproductionduetoproposedmainstreamandtributary development.Insummaryby2030:
16
Withdevelopmentbasinwideincludingatotalof77damsonLMBtributariesandontheLancangRiver mainstream,thelossoffishproductioncomparedtothe2000baselineisexpectedtobe210,000 540,000tonnesor1026%intheabsenceofmainstreamdams If11mainstreamdamswereinplace,thetotallossinfishresourceswouldbe550,000880,000tonnes or2642%comparedtothe2000baseline~340,000tonnesofthatestimatedirectlydueto mainstreamdams.Theamountofproteinatriskofbeinglostannuallyif11mainstreamdamswere builtby2030represents110%ofthecurrenttotalannuallivestockproductionofCambodiaandLao PDR. If9mainstreamdamswereoperatingupstreamofKhoneFalls,thelossinfishresourceswouldamountto 350,000680,000tonnesor1732%comparedtothe2000baseline,140,000tonnesofthatestimate directlyduetomainstreamdams. If6damswerebuiltupstreamofVientiane,alossrangingbetween270,000and600,000tonnesor13 29%isexpectedcomparedtothesituationin2000about60,000tonnesofthatestimatedueto mainstreamdamsorproteinlossannuallyequivalentto60%ofthecurrentlivestockproductionofLao PDR. FigureS4:PotentialincrementalimpactofLMBmainstreamdamsonfishproductionbasinwide
Reservoirfisheriescannotcompensateforthelossincapturefisheriesandatbestwouldproduceonetenth ofthelostcapturefisheriesproduction.Inthelongterm,thereductioninsedimentandnutrientoutflow predictedfor2030offrom50%to75%ofthecurrentaverageannualloadwouldhaveamajorimpacton coastalfishproduction,andsubsequentlyontheVietnamesefishingsectorandfishtradeasectorwhichhas shownstronggrowthinthelast10yearsandproducessome500,000tonnesoffishannually. AquaculturecancomplementtheMekongcapturefisheriessectorbutcannotreplaceitintermsoffood security.AquaculturehasshownrapidgrowthinallLMBcountries(mostdevelopedinVietNam).Intensive aquaculture(e.g.VietNam)producesfishforexportandincomebutisnotaccessibletothepoor.Extensive aquaculture(e.g.Cambodia)feedslocalpeoplebutisnotveryproductive.Thissectorisdependenton:(i) investment,(ii)land/watermanagement,and(iii)capturefisheriesforfeed(allcountries)andjuveniles (Cambodiainparticular).Withmanagementformultipleuses,theLMBmainstreamprojectscouldprovidethe investmentandwaterresourcesneededforcontinuedgrowthintheaquaculturesector.TheLMBmainstream 17
projectswouldreducetheproductivityofcapturefisheries,diminishingthesupplyoffeedstocktothe aquaculturesectorwithlimitedcapacityforreplacementthroughreservoirfisheries. SubstantiallossesinthefreshandmarinecapturefisheriesandinDeltaaquaculturewouldhavebasinwide impactsonthefisheriessector,associatedancillaryandprocessingindustries,andfisheriesassociated livelihoods,andhealthandnutrition. FishpassesarenotarealisticmitigationoptionforMekongmainstreamdams.Fishladdersmaybea mitigationoptionforlowdamsontributaries,butexistingtypesandsizesoffishladderscannotaccommodate theintensityanddiversityoffishmigrationsonthemainstream.Eightoftheproposedmainstreamdamsare higherthanthemaximumheightatwhichfishladdersareoperational.Worldwidefishladdersareefficient whenspecificallydesignedforafewparticularspeciesthatmigrateonceayearinlimitednumbers.The Mekongischaracterizedbymorethan50differentmigrantspecies,hugedensitiesduringmigrationpeaksand severalmigrationpulsesperyear.Inaddition,acascadeofdamswouldexponentiallyreducetheoverall upstreamfishpassagerate. Iffishpassesaretobesuccessful,theymustbeconsideredattheearliestplanningstagesduringthe determinationofdamlocationanddesignandmustbedesignedforidentifiedtargetfishspecies.Todate,only threeofthe11LMBmainstreamdamshaveexplicitlyincludedfishpasses,noneconsideredfishpassage beforelocationwasfinalisedandnonehavebeendesignedbasedonstudiesfortargetfishspecies. Theagriculturalsectorwouldbeadverselyaffectedbymainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentbecauseof inundationofagriculturallandandlossofriverbankgardens,despiteexpansionsinirrigationassociated withtheprojects.TheimpactsonagricultureintheDeltaarelikelytobesignificantbutatthisstagehavenot beeninvestigatedorestimated. Themainstreamprojectswouldreducefoodsecurityinriparianprovincesespeciallywhencombinedwith thepotentialeffectsofclimatechange.Climatechangeislikelytosee(i)agriculturalproductivityincreasein thebasin(around3.6%by2030)butfoodsecuritydecrease,despitetheincreasingareasunderirrigationand (ii)decreasesinfishbiodiversityandstabilityinfisheriessectorproductiondespitesomeclimatechange benefitsofincreasingfloodedareaandnutrientloading. Agriculturelossesmaybepartiallycompensatedforbyanopeningupofnewagriculturallandadjacenttothe reservoirs,andprovisionofirrigationequipmentandelectricity.Theremaybeissuesofequitableaccessto suchimprovementsespeciallyforthepooraslargerirrigationschemesfavourcentralisation. SOCIALSYSTEMSLIVELIHOODSANDLIVINGCULTURESOFAFFECTEDCOMMUNITIES Some29.6millionpeopleliveandworkwithin15kmoftheMekongRiverthroughouttheLMB.Ofthese,2.1 millionarelocalripariancommunitieslivingwithin5kmoftheriverwhoareexpectedtobemostatrisktothe directandindirectimpactsoftheLMBmainstreamdams.Ofthese,106,942peoplewillsufferdirectimpacts fromthe12LMBmainstreamprojects,losingtheirhomes,landandrequireresettlement.Morethan2 millionpeoplein47districtslivingwithintheproposedreservoirs,damsitesandimmediatelydownstream ofthe11LMBmainstreamprojectsareathighestriskofindirectimpactsfromtheLMBmainstream projects. Mainstreamprojectsarelikelytohavesignificanteffectsonripariancommunitiesbydisruptingtheirwaysof life,culturesandsenseofcommunity.Theproposedmainstreamdevelopmentwouldinhibitcommunity accessto,availabilityandqualityofthefoodtheyeatandincreasethelevelofhazardorrisktheyareexposed to. Somemainstreamprojectswouldresultinvillagesbeingdisplacedforthesecond,thirdandfourthtimein15 years.Repeatedcompulsoryrelocationwithinarelativelyshortperiodoftimeisoneofthemost impoverishingactsthatcanoccurtocommunitiesgiventherapidpaceofhydropowerdevelopment.Thisrisk ofmultipledisplacementsofaffectedpeopleinStungTrengandKratieisextremelyhigh Theexperienceinprovidingtheneededlongterm,consistentandsensitiveadjustmentandsupportprograms forcommunitiesaffectedbyhydropowerhasnotbeengoodintheLMBregion.Oftenitrequirescapacities andapproachestoprogrammeandbudgetmanagementthatarenotinplace. 18
Summaryofeconomicopportunities&risksforLMBcountriesforall12LMBmainstreamprojects
Cambodia Seriousadverseconsequencesforfisheriesandfishers,foodsecurityandpovertyreduction Significantbenefitsfrompowersectordevelopmentsecureandlessexpensivepowerforindustryandeconomic diversificationinthelongterm Fisherieslosseslikelytooutweighbenefitsofpowerproductionatleastintheshorttomediumterm OPPORTUNITIES RISKS Lossoffisheriesresourcesandsignificantimpactonfoodsecurity Significantbenefitsfromlessexpensiveandsecure Livelihoodsdisruptionofover1.6millionfishers nationalpowersupply(replacingcostlydieselimports) LossinGDPthrougheconomiclossesinfisheriesandagriculture Increasedcompetitivenessinmanufacturingsector Ancillaryservicesandprocessingwouldsuffer Increasedgovernmentrevenuefrompowerexportand LossofsedimentsandassociatednutrientstoTonleSapsystem, taxes andassociatedadverseimpactsonprimaryproduction,flood Increaseinirrigableareaandagriculturalproductivityin forestandlocal/migratoryfish someareas Lossofriverbankgardenslikelytobesignificantforriparian Longertermstrategicflexibilityinpowersupplyonce communitiesinsomeareas concessionperiodsend Lossoffertilityandagriculturalproductivityinfloodplains Lossoftourismassetsandrevenue Lackofnationalgridmayinhibitequitabledistributionofpower Lossofbiodiversity LaoPDR Likelysignificantoveralleconomicbenefitthisislikelytobeunevenlydistributed Negativeimpactsonvulnerablecommunitieslikelytobesignificant GoLexpenditureofincreasednetrevenuescouldhelpamelioratenegativeimpacts OPPORTUNITIES RISKS Possibilityofmacroeconomicimbalancesdevelopingdueto boominghydropowersector Lossoffisherieslikelytoaffectfoodsecurityandlivelihoods ofvulnerablepopulations LossofriverbankgardensparticularlysignificantinLaoPDR Lossofvaluabletourismassets Lossofbiodiversity
SignificantbenefitsfromeconomicstimulusofFDIinLMB mainstreamhydropower Mayseenetrevenuebenefitsinconcessionperioddepending onthedesignoffinancingagreementandadequateoversight capacity Likelytoseesignificantbenefitsafter25yearconcessionsend andtheprojectstransferredtoGoL Benefitsofincreasedirrigableareaandagricultural productivityinsomeareas Improvementinnavigabilityformed/largevesselsupstream ofVientiane Longertermstrategicflexibilityinpowersupplyonce concessionperiodsend Thailand Overalleconomicbenefitalthoughinsignificantfornationaleconomy Economicriskstolivelihoodsforripariancommunitiesinthebasin OPPORTUNITIES RISKS Willreceivesignificantportionoftheeconomicbenefitsof Lossoffisheries powerfromimports Lossofagriculturalland Possiblelossofecotourismassets Improvementinnavigabilityformed/largevesselsinupper reachesoftheLMB VietNam Likelyoveralleconomicloss LossesbornepredominantlybypoorercommunitiesintheMekongdelta OPPORTUNITIES RISKS Willreceivesignificantportionoftheeconomicbenefitsof Significantlossinfreshwaterandmarinecapturefisheries improvedpowersupply(fromimportedpower) andaquaculturelikelytoaffectlivelihoodsoffisherfolkin deltaespeciallypoorergroups Lossofsedimentsandassociatednutrientssignificant adverseeconomicaffectstodeltaicsedimentation,fisheries (Mekongandmarine)andagriculture
SUMMARYOFCONCLUSIONS Themainstreamprojectswouldbringsignificantadditionalpowerandinvestment/revenuebenefitstothe region.Theywouldalsobringmanyseriousrisksanduncertaintiestoissuesofstrategiceconomic,socialand environmentalconcerntotheMekongcountriesandcommunitiesandforthesustainabledevelopmentofthe Basin.Insummary,foreachofthebigstrategicconcernstheSEAteamconcludes: 19
POWERGENERATION&SECURITY TheLMBmainstreamdamspresentasignificantpotentialcontributiontopowergenerationfortheLMB region,comprising23%ofthetechnicalhydropowerpotentialinthefourLMBcountriesand11%ofthe installedcapacityby2025.HydropowerintheMekongBasinisasmallbutanimportantcomponentofthe fossilfueldependentLMBpowersector.Growthinelectricitydemandto2025willmaintaintheimportanceof hydropowerascountriesseektodiversifyfuelsources,reducecarbonemissionsandincreaseregionaltrade. TheLMBmainstreamprojectscouldcontribute8%ofthe2025regionaldemandifallwentahead. LMBmainstreamhydropowerisnotcriticaltoensurehealthygrowthintheLMBregionalpowersector,but theabsenceofmainstreamprojectswouldlimitCambodiascapacityforindigenousdomesticsupplyoptions andforexportearnings.ThoughmostofthepowersectorbenefitswillfalltoLaoPDR,theprojectsaremost criticaltoCambodiawhichhasfewalternativestoimportingexpensivefossilfuels.LaoPDRanexperienced hydropowerproducerhassufficienttributaryhydropowerpotentialtoensurehealthygrowthinthemedium termandproduceeconomicalelectricalenergyfordomesticsupplyandexportwithoutLMBmainstream projects. PreparingforclimatechangetodaywouldallowthepowersectortoenhancethepotentialofLMBtributary andLMBmainstreamhydropower.MostoftheMekongtributarieswithstronghydropowerpotentialare projectedtoexperienceanetincreaseinannualdischargethroughincreasesinwetseasonflowduetoclimate change. Thealternativestocompletelyblockingthemainstreamtoproduceelectricityhavenotbeenadequately explored.Internationally,thereareanumberofrecenttechnologicalandmanagementinnovationsfor hydropoweronlargeriversthathavenotbeenadequatelyexploredfortheMekongRiver.Thoughpower outputfromeachprojectislikelytobeless,partialdammingofchannelbranches,instreamturbinesand diversionsrequiredetailedfeasibilitystudiesgiventheirpotentialformuchreducednaturalsystems, livelihoodimpactsandamoresustainablemarriageofpowerandIWRMobjectives. ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT&POVERTYALLEVIATION LMBmainstreamhydropowerpresentverysignificanteconomicbenefitsfortheregionalpowersector, mostofwhich(70%)wouldfalltoLaoPDR.The12LMBmainstreamprojectproposalsrepresentasignificant opportunityforgenerationofrevenuesinhostcountries,providingUSD34billioninannualbenefitsforLao PDRandCambodia.Intheorderof2531%ofgrossrevenueswouldaccruetonationalhostgovernments duringtheconcessionperiod(typically25years),risingcloseto100%aftertheconcessionperiod. ThestimulusfromLMBmainstreamhydropowertonationalrevenue,ifproperlymanaged,couldcontribute significantlytoeconomicdevelopmentinthehostcountries.The12LMBmainstreamhydropowerprojects wouldrepresentsignificantinvestmentsofsomeUSD25billionintotheregionaleconomy.Upto50%of ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)flowsassociatedwithmainstreamhydropowerislikelytoremaininsidehost countries. Nationalandregionalcapacityinpublicfinancialmanagement,projectcapacityandthesuccessful implementationofbenefitsharingmechanismsisgrowingbutwillnotbesufficienttoensurethatbenefits accruingatthenationallevelaretransferredtothelocallevel.Intheshorttomediumterm,international financingorganisationswillplayacriticalroleindevelopingtherequiredcapacitytoconverttheincreased revenueintosustainableandequitableeconomicdevelopment. Thelossesexperiencedbythefisheriesandagriculturesectorsduetothemainstreamdamsareanorderof magnitudegreaterthantherealisticbenefitstothosesectors.Fisheriesandagriculture,twoofthemost importanteconomicsectorsinthenaturalresourcedependentLMB,willexperiencelossesintheorderofUSD 500million/year,withpotentialbenefitsfromreservoirfisheriesandnewirrigationpotentialexpectedto contributeUSD30million/year.Once,economicimpactsoncoastalanddeltafisheriesarebetterunderstood, estimatesoflossesarelikelytosignificantlyincrease. Evenwithmitigationmeasuresconventionallyassociatedwithhydropowerprojectsintheregion,LMB mainstreamprojectswouldlikelycontributetoagrowinginequalityandashorttomediumtermworsening ofLMBpovertyinLMBcountries. ECOSYSTEMINTEGRITYANDDIVERSITY TheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldinducesignificantadditionalbasinwideeffectsontheMekongriver dependentecosystems,themajorityofwhichareunavoidableiftheprojectsgoahead.TheLMBmainstream projectsareproposedatatimewhentheMekonghydrologicalregimeisundergoingaperiodofintensive changedrivenbyrapidhydropowerdevelopmentontheLMBtributariesandontheUMBmainstreamin 20
China.TheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldfurtherexacerbatethesewiderangingthreatsaswellasseverthe longitudinalconnectivityofMekongecosystemscompartmentalisingitintosmallerandfarlessproductive units. LMBmainstreamprojectswouldaffectfloodingthroughthefootprintoftheirreservoirs,converting55%of theLowerMekongRiverintoreservoirwiththepotentialtoinducesignificantandrapidfluctuationsin downstreamwatersurfacelevelsatadailyandevenhourlytimestep.Overalldevelopmentofhydropower ontheMekongRiverandtributarieswouldinducemassivereductionsinsedimenttransportanddisruption ofthehydroecologicalseasons.TributaryandUMBprojectswouldaffectfloodingdepthanddurationinthe floodplainsthoughseasonalregulationofflows. Themainstreamprojectswouldleadtopermanentlossesinaquaticandterrestrialbiodiversityofglobal importanceandtheirreversibledegradationoftheMekongRiverecologywhichcannotbemitigatedor compensated.SeventeenpercentoftheMekongsinchannelwetlandswouldbelostandanumberof charismaticMekongRiverspecieswouldbecomeextinct. FISHERIES&FOODSECURITY By2030,if11mainstreamdamswerebuilt,theproteinatriskofbeinglostannuallywouldbethe equivalentof110%thecurrentannuallivestockproductionofCambodiaandLaos.Reservoirfisheriesfrom mainstreamdamswouldcompensateatmost10%thelossesincapturefisheries.Noneoftheexistingfish passtypescanaccommodatethesizeandintensityofmainstreamfishmigrations. RisksandlossesincurredbytheMekongterrestrialandaquaticecosystemswillresultinincreasingfood insecurityformillionsofpeople.Ruralandurbancommunitieslivingwithin15kmoftheMekongRiverwould beparticularlyaffected,experiencinggreaterfoodinsecurityduetothereductionincapturefisheriesandnet lossofsubsistenceagricultureandriverbankgardens. Climatechangewouldhaveasynergisticeffectonthemainstreamdamfoodsecurityeffects,further reducingfisheriesandagriculturalproductivityinsituationsofgrowingfooddemand. Thefinancial,institutionalcivicservicesandfacilitiesrequiredtoaddressthesefoodsecurityissuesalongmore than1,500kmoftransboundaryriverbankareimmenseandbeyondthecurrentcapacitiesoftheLMBregion anditsgovernmentstoaddress. ThemagnitudeofrisksinCambodia,LaoPDRandonVietNamsdeltaeconomycallsforadetailedassessment ofimpactsonfoodsecurityandlivelihoods,identificationofrealisticsolutions,andthedevelopmentof alternativefoodsupplyoptionspriortodecisionsonthemainstreamprojects. SOCIALSYSTEMSLIVELIHOODS&LIVINGCULTURES Intheshorttomediumterm,theLMBmainstreamprojectswoulddegradelivelihoodsofthepoorest communitiesinMekongriparianprovinces.LMBmainstreamhydropowerwilladverselyaffectthemillionsof ripariancommunitieswhodrawtheirlivelihoodsfromtheriveranditsnaturalresources.Thelivelihoodsofat least2.1millionpeoplewillbedirectlyorindirectlyaffectedifallmainstreamprojectsweretoproceed. Ofthoseripariancommunitiesdirectlyandindirectlyaffected,themainstreamprojectswouldleadto significantchangesinaccesstoandcontroloveressentiallivelihoodresourcesandwaysoflifei.e.,howthey live,work,playandinteractwithoneanotheronadaytodaybasis,theirphysicalsafetyandthelevelofrisk theyareexposedto,andtheirculturethatis,theirsharedheritage,customsandvalues. REGIONALCOOPERATIONANDCONFLICT Whenunderconstructionandoperating,theproposeddevelopmentshavethepotentialtocreate transboundaryimpactsandinternationaltensionswithintheLMBduetoi)reducedecosystemintegrity,ii) reducedsedimentandnutrientloads,iii)disruptiontootherusesoftheMekongandiv)reducedproductivity infisheriesandagricultureandoverallfoodinsecurityinaffectedsubbasinsandthedelta. Theframeworkofregionalstandardsandsafeguardsrelatingtotransboundaryanddownstreameffectsand institutionalarrangementsfortheirenforcementarenotfullydevelopedandarenotadequatetothe requirementsofthemainstreamprojectriskmanagement. TheLMBmainstreamprojectsprovideanopportunitytoincreaseregionalcooperationinthepowersector, consistentwithnationalandGMSplanning. UNCERTAINTY Manyoftherisksassociatedwiththeproposedmainstreamdevelopmentscannotbemitigatedatthistime,as theywouldrepresentapermanentandirreversiblelossofenvironmental,socialandeconomicassets. 21
Therearemanyandsubstantialgapsininstitutionalandproceduralarrangementsforensuringtheeffective managementoftheconstructionandoperationoftheprojectsandsimilargapsinthenationalcapacitiesto sharebenefitsequitably. Criticalnationalcapacitiesintermsofpersonnelandskillscontinuetogrowbutarenotyetfullyinplaceto oversee,control,monitorandenforcesafeguardsandoperationalrules Therearemanyremaininguncertaintiesandknowledgegapsassociatedwiththedevelopments.Thestateof knowledgeabouttheMekongisnotadequateformakinginformedandresponsibledecisionsabout mainstreamdamsatthistime. STRATEGICOPTIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONS TheproposeddevelopmentofthemainstreamMekongRiveristhemostimportantstrategicdecisionever madebyLMBcountriesonuseoftheirsharedresources.ThegoalofanSEAistoinfluencethestrategic decisionsrelatingtotheproposedprojectstohelpshapedecisionsandplanssothatdevelopmentis equitableandecologicallysustainable.ThisSEAwasconductedtohelpidentifyincleartermsthetradeoffs involvedinstrategicoptionsi.e.,whatwillbelost,whatwillbegainedandwhowilllose,aswellaswhowill gain? TheSEAaddressesafundamentalquestionTodamornottodamtheMekongRivermainstream?In responsetothatquestion,theSEAhasdescribedandconsultedonfourstrategicoptionsoftoLMBcountries: 1. 2. 3. 4. Nomainstreamdams Deferreddecisiononallmainstreamdamsforasetperiod Gradualdevelopmentofmainstreampower Marketdrivendevelopmentoftheproposedmainstreamprojects
TheSEAteamassessedindetaileachofthefouroptions,basedonthefourassessmentphasesandfindingsof theSEA.TheSEAmakesdetailedrecommendationsforeachstrategicoptionsothattheLMBgovernments haveguidanceoncriticalissueswhicheverstrategyisadopted.Thedecisionflowchartbelowsummarisesthe SEArecommendationsassociatedwitheachofthefourstrategicoptions.
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STRATEGICOPTION
Courseofactionforeachstrategicoption
1.1. ManagechangesinflowandsedimentduetoChineseandtributary dams 1.2. Explorepossiblyprovisionofanintegrateddonorstructural adjustmentpackage 1.3. Improveeffectivenessofmanagementforwater,naturalresources &ecosystemservices 1.4. AccelerateinvestmentinotherrenewableenergyoptionsandDSM inLMBcountries 1.5. DevelopalternativedesignsforharnessingenergyofMekong mainstreamwithoutdammingwholechannel 2.1. Agreearoadmapwithdecisionpointsforreconsidering"todamor nottodam" 2.2. DevelopalternativedesignstoharnessMekongenergywithout dammingthewholeriverchannel 2.3. Improveperformance,safetyandimpactmanagementdesignsof proposedprojectstocomplywithagreedstandards 2.4. Improveeffectivenessofagreedenvironmentalandsocialsafeguard mitigationmeasures 2.5. Improveunderstandingofnatural,socialandculturalresourcesand theirlimitstosustainabledevelopment 2.6. Improveeffectivenessofmanagementofwaterandnatural resourcesandecosystemservices 2.7. Developcapacityofexistinginstitutionstoregulate,monitor, enforcecomplianceforhydropower 2.8. Developnewinstitutionstoplanandmanagefuturehydropower fromMekongmainstream 2.9. DevelopMekongRegionalFundingMechanism
NODAMS
Nodevelopmentof mainstreamdams
DEFER
Deferreddecision onallMainstream damsforaset periodoftime
GRADUAL 3 DEVELOPMENT
Proceedinacautious& plannedmanner (2mainoptions)
3a
current projects
Usingexisting projectswith fullriverdams
3b
alternatives
Usingalternative designswithonly partialblockingof mainstream
3.1. DevelopphasingplanforMekongmainstreamdamsthat incorporates: 3.1.1. Extensivemonitoringofconstructionandoperationof dams 3.1.2. Complianceenforcement 3.1.3. Learningfromexperience,structured&timely 3.1.4. Flexibilityinimplementation,withabilitytochangeplan, abortprojects,adoptalternativeprojects 3.1.5. Consideralternativedesignswithpartialdammingof mainstream 3.2. Implementabovemeasuresapplicableto2,butwithshortertime frame
MARKET
Marketdriven developmentof existingprojects
4.1 Proposedprojectsdevelopedandconstructedasfastasdevelopers andregulatorsallowinresponsetomarketforelectricity 4.2 Norealplan: 4.2.1. Extensivemonitoringofconstructionandoperationof dams 4.2.2. Complianceenforcement 4.2.3. Learningfromexperience,adhocwithlittletimeto integrateexperience 4.2.4. Littleflexibilityinimplementation&abilitytochangeplan 4.3 Implementabovemeasuresapplicableto2,butwithevenlesstime
ComprehensiverecommendationsforeachofthestrategicoptionsaresetoutinthemainreporttoguideLMB countriesonwhateverthecourseofactiontheyfinallydecideconcerningthemainstreamproposals. TheSEAprocesswasinitiatedinacontextinwhichstakeholdersappearedtoholdstronglydivergentviewson thequestionofmainstreamdevelopment.Divergencetendedtomirrorthesectoralmandatesofline agenciesandmissionsofinternationalandlocalorganisations.Inpractice,whenparticipatingasexperts ratherthangovernmentofficialsororganisationrepresentatives,theSEAteamfoundthattherewasmuch commongroundamongstakeholders.Duringthe16monthconsultativeprocessinvolvingonetooneand roundtablemeetingswithsome60governmentlineagenciesand40nongovernmentorganisationsineachof 23
theLMBcountries,moststakeholderswereconcernedaboutthepotentialimpactsoftheproposals,wishedto haveconvincingevidenceoftheneedforthem,andfeltthattherehadnotbeenadequateconsultationand discussionacrossgovernmentsandwithaffectedcommunities.AsignificantnumberofSEAstakeholdersfelt thatpoliticaldecisionmakersshouldgivedueconsiderationtothestrategicoptionofdeferringadecisionon mainstreamdevelopmentuntilkeyuncertaintiesarereduced,alternativeshadbeenfullyconsideredand measurestomanagedevelopmentriskswereagreeduponthroughacombinationofMRCledandbilateral processes. ThefindingsandconclusionsoftheSEAconcerningthesignificanceoftherisksandofthemanyuncertainties andgapsinknowledgewhichremain,aswellasthesharedviewsofmoststakeholdersinvolvedintheSEA processontheneedforfurtherconsultationandstudy,ledtheteamtorecommendtheadoptionofstrategic option2defermentofmainstreamdevelopmentassummarizedbelow. MAINRECOMMENDATIONOFTHESEATEAM Followingtheanalysisofpotentialimpactsandbenefitsassociatedwiththemainstreamprojects,and followinganintensiveprogramofconsultationswithmorethan100governmentandnongovernment agencies,theSEAteamhasreachedthefollowingmainrecommendation: Giventheeconomic,social,culturalandecologicalimportanceoftheMekongRiverasafreeflowing systemconnectingthefourLowerMekongCountries; Giventheincreasinglythreatenedstatusofnaturalsystemsandresourcesintheregionandgrowing pressuresonthem; Giventhefarreachingpotentialeffectsandremaininguncertaintiesrelatingtotheproposedmainstream projects; GiventheneedforanewapproachtodevelopmentoftheMekongRiverbetterfittingtherequirements oftheLMBripariancountriesandcommunitiesinthe21stCentury: TheSEAteamrecommends: 1. Decisionsonmainstreamdamsshouldbedeferredforaperiodoftenyears(strategicoption2)with reviewseverythreeyearstoensurethatessentialdefermentperiodactivitiesarebeingconducted effectively. 2. Asthehighestpriority,thedefermentperiodwouldincludeacomprehensiveundertakingof feasibilitystudiesforpartialinchannel,diversionandotherinnovativesystemsfortappingthepower ofthemainstreaminwayswhichdonotrequiredamsacrossthefullbreadthoftheriverchannel. ThiswouldinvolvegovernmentsinpartnershipwiththeMRC,multilateraldevelopmentbanksand developers. 3. Thedefermentperiodwouldalsoincludeacomprehensiveassessmentandfasttrackingoftributary projectsthatareconsideredfeasibleandecologicallysustainableaccordingtocurrentinternational goodpractice,includingretrofittingofexistingprojectsandinnovativeschemes. 4. ThedefermentperiodneedstocommencewithasystematicdistributionoftheSEAreportwithin eachLMBcountryinnationallanguagesandconsultationwithlineagencies,privatesectorandthe NGOcommunity. 5. TheMekongmainstreamshouldneverbeusedasatestcaseforprovingandimprovingfulldam hydropowertechnologies. IMMEDIATENEXTSTEPS AtthefinalSEAregionalworkshop,nationalworkingsessionsmaderecommendationsonwhatshouldhappen tothefinalSEAreportoncesubmittedtotheMRCS.Therecommendationsontheprocessestobefollowing wereveryconsistentfromonegrouptothenext.Theoverallintentwastoensurethatstrategicconsultations ontheSEAreporthappenineachcountrybeforeprojectspecificdecisionsaremade. Insummary,itwasrecommendedthatthereshouldbeasystematicdistributionoftheSEAreportwithineach LMBcountryinnationallanguagesandsupportgiventofacilitateconsultationonitwithlineagenciesandthe
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NGOcommunitypriortodecisionsbeingmadeonthemainstreamprojects.Nationalgroupssuggested variousotherstepsintheprocesstooptimizeusefulnessoftheSEAreporttoLMBcountriesincluding: ConsiderationofthereportbytheMRCSJointCommittee ConsiderationofreportbytheNationalMekongCommittees Furthertechnicalconsultationonthereportwithlineagenciesineachcountry Considerationofthereportbynationalcabinets Considerationofthereportbynaturalresourcesandenvironmentparliamentarycommittees Convenemultistakeholderconferencesineachcountryandatregionalleveltodiscussthereport Establishregionaltechnicaltaskforcesonthekeystrategicissueswhereuncertaintiesandsignificant risksremain. TherecommendationsofthisSEAstemfromrecognitionoftheneedforupmostcautioninmaking developmentdecisionswhensomuchisatstakeandwhenthereareevidentthreatsofseriousand irreversibleenvironmental,socialandeconomicdamagefromtheproposedmainstreamprojectproposals. Majordevelopmentdecisionsalwaysinvolvetradeoffsandchange.Theprinciplesofsustainable developmentrequirethatthosetradeoffsandchangesavoidpermanentlosses,closureofoptionsforfuture generationsandinequitabledistributionofcostsandbenefitsamongexistingcommunitiesandareas.Inthis caseof12mainstreamprojectproposals,theSEAhasfoundthatthereislikelytobepermanentlossesand, evenwhereavoidanceandmitigationmeasuresmightreduceunwantedimpacts,thereremainssignificant gapsinknowledgeandinadequateinstitutionalcapacitiestoeffectivelyimplementandenforcethem. Importantly,itisevidentthatalternativestoharnessingenergyfromthemainstreamwithoutfullchannel dams,andotheroffstreamoptionshavenotbeenadequatelyconsidered. Moretimeisneededtobuildgreaterunderstandingandcapacities,tobetterexploretheoptions,andto investigatewaystoavoidlosseswhichwouldreduceregional,nationalandlocalwellbeing.
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|PARTI MEKONGHYDROPOWERPROPOSALS&STRATEGICOPTIONS
PARTI:HYDROPOWERONTHEMEKONG RIVERPROPOSALSANDSTRATEGIC OPTIONS

TheMRCmembercountriesarefacedwiththemostsignificantstrategicdecisionevermadeaffectingthe MekongRiverinmanyrespectsthenatural,culturalandeconomicbackboneoftheregion.Thestrategic decisionconcernswhetherornottoconstructhydropowerdamsacrosstheMekongRiveradevelopment whichwouldhavefarreachingandpermanentinternational,economic,socialandeconomicimplications. ThisfinalreportoftheMRCStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentof12hydropowerproposalsforthe mainstreamMekongRiverisasynthesisoftheseriesofreportspreparedforthescoping,baseline,impacts assessmentandmitigationphasesoftheSEA.Itsummarisesthemainfindingsandconclusionsfromthat reportseriesandmakesrecommendationsonthewayforward.Furtherdetailandreferencesareprovided withintheseriesofSEAreportsavailablefromtheMRCandICEMwebsites.
HYDROPOWERPROJECTSONTHELANCANGRIVER
TheMekongRiverisoneofthelastlargeriversonEarthnotdammedformostofitslength,andtheonlyriver stillflowingfreelytotheseathroughfivecountriesMyanmar,LaoPDR,Thailand,CambodiaandVietNam.16 ItisdammedinChinathesixthupstreamMekongripariancountrybythefirstfourprojectsinaplanned cascadeofupto8storagehydropowerschemes.SincetheRiverbeginsinTibetandpassesthroughYunnan ProvincethendownthroughtheLowerMekongcountries,ithasmanynames.InChinaitiscalledtheLncng Jingor"TurbulentRiver".IntheothercountriesitisvariouslycalledMotherKhongorGreatRiver. ForseveralthousandyearstheMekongshydrologicalregimehasremainedindynamicequilibriumwiththe climateandlandscapeoftheriverbasin.Inthepast15years,humandevelopmentinonesectorhydropower begantransformingthehydrologyofthebasin.17Thecombinedeffectsofhydropowerdamsontributaries andmainstreamarechangingthefundamentalcharacteristicsoftheriversystemwithpervasiverepercussions fornaturalandsocialsystemsandeconomies. During19861992,theMekongflowregimeandsedimentloadwassignificantlyaffectedforthefirsttime whenChinaconstructedadamacrossthemainstreamManwaninYunnanProvince.18Thesecondandthird dams,DachaoshanandJinghong,werecompletedin2003and2008.In2009,Chinacommencedfillingthe reservoirofitsfourthdam,Xiaowan,thehighestarchdamintheworldat292m(958ft).Xiaowanrepresents thefirsttimeinthehistoryofthebasinwhenasingledevelopmentwillinfluencetheentirehydrological
16
TheMekongistheworlds12thlongestriverandthelongestinmainlandSouthEastAsiaatapproximately4180km th fromitssourceinTibettothecoastofVietNam.Itisthe8 intheworldintermsannualwaterdischargetotheseasome 475billioncubicmetres. 17Changestolanduseandirrigationhavehadsignificantimpactsatthesubcatchmentscalebuthavenotinducedthe samemagnitudeofchangeashydropoweratthebasinscale,suchthatthecharacteristicfeaturesoftheMekong hydrologicalregimehadremainedwithinnaturalfluctuation. 18 ManwanDamwithacapacityof1,750MW
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regimeoftheMekongBasin.FourmoredamsareplannedforthemainstreaminYunnanProvince(Figure1).19 AnadditionalhydropowerprojectisunderconsiderationattheconceptualphaseontheLaoMyanmarborder forwhichnoinformationwasavailable.MainstreamdamshavegreaterpotentialtoaffecttheMekongRiver equilibriumthantributarydamswhichhavemorelocalisedimpacts. TheChinadamsinfluencethetimingandscaleofthenaturalMekongpulseonwhichmanyothernatural, socialandeconomiccomponentsofthesystemaretuned.Onlysome1416%oftheannualaverageflow originatesfromChinabutduringthedryseasonflowsfromChinamakeupcloseto50%.TheChinadamshave significantlyreducedtheseasonaldifferenceintheMekonghydrographsothatlesswaterenterstheLower MekongBasininthewetandmoreinthedry.BecausetheUpperMekonggradientissteep,itisacritical sourceofsediments.Some55%ofsedimentandnutrientloadreachingKratieinCambodiacomesfromChina. TheChinadamswillreducethatloadingtoaround22%ofcurrentlevels. TheMekongistheriverwiththesecondhighestfishbiodiversityintheworld.Sevenhundredandeightyone fishspecieshavebeenformallyidentifiedandthereislikelytobemorethan1200species..Thatdiversityof lifeincreasesasonemovesdownthemainstream.Itreflectstheoverallproductivityandbiologicalstabilityof thesystem.Also,itisexpressedintheculturaldiversityandpatternsoflifeofripariancommunities.Some arguethatculturaldiversityandsocialstabilityiscloselylinkedtothemaintenanceofbiologicaldiversityand stability.CurrentunderstandingsuggeststhattheChinadamshavehadarelativelysmalldirectimpactonfish diversityintheMekongRiverhowever,littleinformationisavailableontheimportanceofthat44%ofthe riverslengthinYunnanprovinceasanurseryandbreedinggroundandmigratoryroute.Similarly,itisnot knownhowclearwaterenteringtheLowerMekong,possiblywithgreatertemperaturevariancethanbefore, willaffectbiodiversityandnaturalsystemproductivity. TheChinesedecisionstoconstructmainstreamdamshaveinfluenceddownstreamdecisionmakersinthe powersector.Untilveryrecently,mainstreamdamsdidnotappearinnationalpowerdevelopmentplansof Cambodia,LaoPDRandThailand.Theywereoffthepoliticalagendabecauseoftheirpotentiallocaland downstreamimpactsinaninternationalcontext.TheintroductionoftheChinesecascadein1995andthe subsequentchangesinseasonalflowfortheMekongRiver,coupledwiththe2003intergovernmental agreementforregionaltradeamongstGMScountrieshavereintroducedLMBmainstreamhydropowerinto theregionalandnationalpoliticalagenda.Also,asoilpricesroseandbecamemorevolatile,andMekong powerdemandcontinuedtogrow,thepotentialforhydropowerasanexportcommodityrapidlybecamemore attractive.Further,mainstreampowercouldbewelljustifiedasarenewableandclimatesensitiveresource.
PROPOSEDLMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
LowerMekongmainstreamhydropowerproposalsarenotnew.Duringthe1960sand1970s,theMekong Committeedrewupplansforacascadeofsevenlargescaledamsforthelowermainstream.Inthe1980sLMB countriesrejectedthepossibilityoflargestoragehighdams,includingthecontroversialPaMongproject.Then in1994,theMekongSecretariatreleasedastudyproposingaseriesofdamsin12locationsfromPakBeng, OudomxayProvinceinLaoPDRtoTonleSapinCambodiawithheightsrangingintheorderof2050mabove theriverbed.Theprojectswereidentifiedwithoutconsiderationofanappropriateregionalplanning environmentwithinwhichtheywouldneedtosit.Now,withencouragementbynationalgovernments, variouscompanieshavepickedupanddevelopedthoseandsimilarconceptsandsubmittedproposalstothe governmentpowerregulators.12hydropowerschemeshavebeenproposedfortheLao,LaoThaiand CambodianreachesoftheMekongmainstream(Figure1).TenproposalsfallwithinLaoPDRandtwowithin Cambodia.TheproposedLMBprojectswouldbenefitfromtheprojectedincreasesindryseasonflows resultingfromdamoperationinChina. Theprojectproposalsarebeingconsideredwithoutanoverarchingframeworkofzoningandsafeguardsfor theRiveragainstwhichspecificprojectproposalsareconsidered.Anoverarchingplanningguidanceforthe
19
AnumberofhydropowerprojectsarealsoplannedforthereachesoftheLancangRiverupstreamofthe8Chinesedams consideredintheSEA.DetailedinformationontheseprojectswasnotavailabletotheSEA,butpreliminaryinformation suggeststhattheconclusionsoftheSEAarenotlikelytobesignificantlyaffectedbytheseprojectsgiventhelarge downstreamstoragecapacityofXiaowanandNuozahdu.
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Riverwithwhichalldevelopmentsectorsneedtocomplyisnotinplaceregionallyorforeachnational component.20 Annex1providesthebasicinformationaboutthesizeandstatusofthe12projects.Generallytheseproposed projectsareclassifiedasrunofriverschemesiewithwaterpassingdirectlydownstreamwithinaday althoughforanaverageyearamaxdryseasonretentiontimeofaround3weekscouldbeexpected.Foradry yeartheretentiontimecouldextendtoamonth.Sanakhamhasthelargestretentiontimefollowedby Sambor,StungTreng,LuangPrabangandBanKoum. TenoftheproposedprojectswoulddamthewholeoftheriverchannelthetwoexceptionsareDonSahong, whichdamsonechannelofthemainstream,andThakhowhichisariverdiversionscheme. ProposedreservoirsinLaoPDRwouldmaintainwaterabovethepresenthighflowlevelintheexistingchannel oftheMekongwitharelativelysmallinundationoutsidethechannel.Foranumberofkilometresupstream fromthedamwalls,theproposedLMBmainstreamreservoirswillmaintainelevatedwaterlevelsabovethe highestinrecordedhistoryandforsomeprojectsabovethe1in1,000yearfloodlevel.StungTrengand Samboraresignificantlylargerreservoirsextendingwellbeyondthemainchannel. Thegenerallayoutofthemainstreamprojectsincludesthedamextendingacrosstheriverwithsectionsfor thespillways,turbines,penstocksaswellasthepowerhouseandswitchyardsoneitherside.Alldesignshave provisionfornavigationlocksbuttodateonlythree(Xayaburi,LatSuaandDonSahong)haveintegrated designsforfishpasses.Somedamsarelocatedstrategicallyatislands,withthedambeingconstructedacross bothorseveralchannels,e.g.atPakLay,SamborandStungTreng.
2.1
GROUPINGSOFMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
Tofacilitatethebaselineandimpactassessment,theStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA)groupedthe proposedmainstreamprojectsinzonesdefinedaccordingtodistinctiveexistingecohydrologicalandsocial characteristicsoftheMekongRiver(Figure1).Table1liststheprojectsinfourgroupsthreeinLaoPDRand oneinCambodia. Table1:Groupingofmainstreamprojectproposalsaccordingtohydroecologicalzone Hydroecologicalzone

1 2 LancangRiver ChiangSaentoVientiane
Mainstreamprojects
Eightexisting(3),underconstruction(1)andplanned(4)mainstream damsinYunnanProvince,China.* 1. PakBeng, 4. PakLay 2. LuangPrabang 5. Sanakham, 3. Xayaburi 6. PakChom 7. BanKoum 8. LatSua 9. DonSahong 10. Thakho 11. StungTreng 12. Sambor
3 4
VientianetoPakse PaksetoKratie [LaosectionaboveKhonefalls] [CambodiasectionbelowKhonefalls] KratietoPhnomPenh PhnomPenhtoSouthChinaSea
5 6
*Atlatestinformation,Mengsong,themostdownstreamprojectintheChinesecascade,hasbeenpostponedwithoutfirmdatesetfor construction.
20
TheMRC1995AgreementandtheestablishmentoftheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlan(BDP)representimportant pioneeringstepsbytheregiontowardsintegratedandsustainableplanningofdevelopment,whilespecificprojectlevel guidanceisprovidedinthe2010MRCHydropowersustainabledevelopmentguidelines..
28
Figure1:ProposedMekongmainstreamhydropowerprojects&ecologicalzones
Ecologicalzonesconsidered:
Zone1ChinatoChiangSaenheadwatersand mountainriver Zone2ChiangSaentoVientianeuplandriver insteepnarrowvalley Zone3VientianetoPaksetheThai/Lao midstreamsectionandtributaries Zone4PaksetoKratie,includingwetlandsof Siphandone,KhoneFalls,StungTrengandKratie, includinganumberofsignificanttributaries Zone5KratietoPhnomPenhandtheTonle SapFloodplainsandtheGreatLake Zone6PhnomPenhtotheseaMekongdelta, tidalzone
29
2.1.1 GROUP1:CASCADEOF6DAMSABOVEVIENTIANE
Thereare6damsaboveVientiane,withtheupper5damsconnectedinacascadethetailwatersoftheupper damflowingdirectlyintotheheadwatersofthenextcreatingalinkedsteppedreservoirofnearly800km.The fivedamcascadeislocatedinLaoPDR.Thelowestdam,PakChom,issharedbyLaoPDRandThailand.In generaltheriverinthisstretchoftheMekongisnarrowwithsteephillsidesoneitherside,sobetween80% 96%ofthereservoirsareconfinedtotheMekongchannelwiththeexceptionofLuangPrabangandPakLay whereonly40%and33%oftheinundatedareaisconfinedtotheriverchannel. PakBengisthenorthernmostoftheLMBdams,locatedupstreamofthetownofPakBeng,inLaoPDR.The developerisDatangfromChina,withpowerdestinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof1,230MW withadam943mlong,76mhighandaratedheadof31m.Ithasareservoirareaof87km2andlivestorage of442Mm3.AsoriginallydesignedwithaFullSupplylevelat345masl,itwouldhaveinundatedlandbackinto Thailand,butundertheLaoGovernmentOptimisationStudyforthecascade,theFSLwasloweredto340masl toavoidthisimpact.80%ofthereservoirareawillbeconfinedtothemainchannel.Thelatestestimateof peopletoberesettledis6,700. LuangPrabangistheseconddaminthecascade,locatedaboveLuangPrabangtown,about3kmabovethe confluencewiththeNamOu,andthePakOucaves.ThedeveloperisPetrovietnamPowerCorporationandthe powerisdestinedforVietNam.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof1,410MWandadam1,106mlongand68m highwitharatedheadof40m.Ithasareservoirareaof90km2,40%ofwhichiscontainedwithinthechannel andlivestorageof734Mm3.Thelatestestimateofpeopletoberesettledis12,966. Xayaburi,thethirddaminthecascadeislocatedabout150kmdownstreamofLuangPrabangtown.The developerisSEANandCh.KarnchangofThailand,withthebulkofthepowerdestinedforThailand.Ithasan installedcapacityof1,260MWwithadam810mlongand32mhighandaratedheadof24m.Itisproposed tooperatecontinuously.Ithasareservoirareaof49km2(96%confinedwithinthemainchannel)andlive storageof225Mm3.TheproposalsandstudiesforXayaburiarethemostadvanced,andistobethefirstin lineforconsiderationundertheMRCsPNPCA.Thelatestestimateofpeopletoberesettledis2,130. PakLay,thefourthdaminthecascadeislocatedjustabovethedistricttownofPakLayinLaoPDR.Two optionsforitslocationwereproposedandtheupperoptionrecommendedduringtheLaoOptimisationStudy becauseitwouldsignificantlyreducethenumberofpeopletoberelocatedfromabout18,000to6,129.The developerisCIECandSinohydroofChinawithpowerdestinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof1,320 MWandadam630mlongand35mhighwitharatedheadof26m.Ithasareservoirareaof108km2(33% confinedwithinthemainchannel)andlivestorageof384Mm3. Sanakham,thefinaldamofthecascadetobelocatedfullyinLaoPDR,issituatedjustupstreamoftheThai Laoborder,betweenLoeiandVientianeprovinces.ThedeveloperisDatangfromChinaandthepower destinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof700MWandadam1,144mlongand38mhighwitha ratedheadof25m.Ithasareservoirareaof81km2(83%confinedwithinthemainchannel)andlivestorage of106Mm3.Thelatestestimateofpeopletoberesettledis4,000. PakChomisthefirstofthetwodamssharedbetweenThailandandLaoPDR.Itislocatedabout100km upstreamofVientiane,andisnotofficiallypartoftheupstreamcascade,thoughitsreservoirwouldfloodback towardsSanakham,whichis86kmupstream.ThereisnodeveloperasyetforPakChom,thoughprefeasibility studieshavebeencommissionedbythegovernmentsofbothThailandandLaoPDR.Ithasaninstalled capacityof1,079MWwithadam1,200mlongand55mhighandaratedheadof22m.Ithasareservoirarea of74km2(92%confinedwithinthemainchannel)andlivestorageof12Mm3.Thelatestestimateforthe numberofpeopletoberesettledis535.PakChomhas11associatedpumpedirrigationschemesforatotalof 2,700hainbothThailandandLaoPDR.
2.1.2 GROUP2:TWODAMSBETWEENVIENTIANEANDPAKSE
TherearetwodamsbetweenVientianeandjustdownstreamofPakse,aboveandbelowtheconfluencewith theMun/ChiRiver.Theywouldnotbeoperatedasacascade. BanKoumisthesecondofthetwodamssharedbetweenThailandandLaoPDR.Itislocatedabout10km abovetheconfluenceoftheMun/ChiRiverwiththeMekong,inanarrowvalleywithsandstonehillsoneach side.ThedeveloperisItalThaiofThailandwiththepowerdestinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof 1,872MWandadam780mlongand53mhighwitharatedheadof19m.Ithasareservoirareaof133km2 (86%confinedwithinthemainchannel)andlittlelivestorage.Thelatestestimateofpeopletoberesettledis 30
935.BanKoumhas22associatedpumpedirrigationschemesforatotalof7,870hainbothThailandandLao PDR. LatSuahasbeenrelocatedtoasite10kmdownstreamofPakse.TheoriginalsitewasbetweenPakseandthe Mun/Chiconfluence,butsincethereservoirwouldhavefloodedbacktotheMun/ChiRiver,itwasdecidedto relocateitandreducetheheight,sothatPaksewouldnotbeaffected.ThedeveloperisCharoenEnergyWater AsiaCoofThailand,andthebulkofthepowerdestinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof686MW anddam1,300mlongand27mhighwitharatedheadof10.6m.Ithasasmallreservoirareaof13km2(80% confinedwithinthemainchannel)andverylittlelivestorage.Thelatestestimateshowsthatnopeoplewill havetoberesettledsincenearbyvillageswillbeprotectedbyembankments.LatSuahasplansforassociated pumpedirrigationschemesforatotalof7,300hainLaoPDR.
2.1.3 GROUP3:DAMSINSIPHANDONE
ThehydropowerprojectsinthelowestLaogroupareDonSahongandThakhointheSiphandoneareaofLao PDR,neitherofwhicharefullmainstreamdams. DonSahongdamblocksofftheHouSahongchannel,oneofmorethantenchannelsthatflowovertheKhone fallsatthesouthernendofSiphandone.TheHouSahongchannelistheonlychannelthroughtheKhoneFalls complexwhichispassableduringthedryseason.TheDonSahongprojectwouldrepresentanimpassable barriertoMekongdryseasonfishmigration.Ittakesadvantageofthe1518mdropatthesefallsandattracts asignificantproportionoftheflowintothesmallreservoirwhichformsintheChannel.Thedeveloperofthis damisMegaFirstfromMalaysiaandthepowergeneratedisdestinedforThailand.Ithasaninstalledcapacity of240MWandadam720mlongand8.2mhighwitharatedheadof17m.Tominimisefloodingonthe adjacentislands,embankmentsoneithersideofthedamwillextendupto2kmalongthechannel.Ithasa smallreservoirareaof290ha(32%confinedwithinthemainchannel)andalivestoragecapacityof115Mm3. Thelatestestimateshowsthat66peoplewillhavetoberesettled. Thakhoisadifferenttypeofschemefromalltheothers,beingariverdiversionratherthanadam.Itdiverts about380m3/secfromabovetheKhonePhaphengFalls,transfersthewaterbya1.8kmchannelconstructed onthelandtotheeastoftheFallsanddischargesitthroughapowerhouseabout1.5kmbelowtheKhone Falls.ThakhoisajointventuredevelopedbyCNRfromFranceandEDLfromLao.Thepowergeneratedwould beusedinthesouthernLaopowergrid.Thisschemeinvolvesnodam,andnobarriertofishmovementsand hasanaddedadvantageofgeneratingmorepowerduringthedryseason,becausetheheaddifferentialabove andbelowthefallsisgreateratthattimeofyear.Ithasaninstalledcapacityof50MW.Thereisnoneedfor resettlement.TosomeextenttheThakhoprojectisanalternativetotheDonSahongdam.
2.1.4 GROUP4:CAMBODIAPROJECTS
ThetwoCambodiandamsatStungTrengandSamborarelongerthantheotherdamsbecausetheyhaveto crossawiderfloodplain,andthereservoirstendtobelarger. StungTrengistheuppermostofthetwoCambodiandams,andislocatedabout10kmupstreamofStung TrengtownandtheconfluencewiththeSekong/Sesan/SrePokRivers.AnMoUforitsdevelopmenthadbeen signedwithaRussiancompany,butwhenthislapsed,theSongDacompanyfromVietNamagreedtocarry outfeasibilitystudies.Atthisstageitisnotknownwherethepowerisdestinedfor.Ithasaninstalledcapacity of980MWwithan11kmlongand22mhighdam,andaratedheadof15m.Thereservoirwouldextendup totheCambodia/Laobordercovering211km2withanactivestorageof70Mm3.Thelatestestimateshows thatover10,000peoplewouldhavetoberesettled. SamboristhelowestdamoftheLMBmainstreamdams,andlargestoneinCambodia.Itislocatednearthe villageofSambor,upstreamofKratieandwouldinundatetheriverchanneltojustsouthofStungTrengtown. ItisbeingdevelopedbyChinaSouthernPowerGridandthedestinationforthebulkofthepowerisVietNam. Itwouldhaveaninstalledcapacityof2,600MW,andadamover18kmlongand56mhigh,witharatedhead of33m.Itwouldcreateareservoirof620km2withanactivestorageof465Mm3.Thelatestestimateshows thatover19,000peoplewouldhavetoberesettled. Annex1givestheearliestpotentialcommissioningdateforeachprojectifapproved.Thosearethedatesthat theschemeswouldstarttogeneratecommercially,althoughtestgenerationwouldbeginbeforehand. Typically,thesemainstreamprojectswouldtake5to8yearstoconstruct.Theconstructionperiodisthemost costlybutbringssignificanteconomicbenefitsduetotheinvestmentstimulus.Allthemainstreamdamsare
31
proposedtobefinancedthroughprivatesourcesonaBOTorBOOTbasis21,andmosthavea25or30year concessionperiodduringwhichtimethedeveloperwouldpayoffthefinancingdebtandgenerateprofits. Afterthistime,theprojectwouldbehandedbacktogovernmenttooperateforitsremaininglifetime(Figure 2).Ineconomicanalysisofthedamstheyareassumedtohavea50to100yearlife. Figure2:LongtermPhasingscheduleformainstreamMekonghydropower

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085
CONSTRUCTION
OPERATIONS(INVESTOR)
BOTHANDOVERPERIOD
OPERATONS(GOVERNMENT) REFURBISHMENT, UPGRADEor DECOMMISSIONING ENDPROJECT ECONOMICLIFE
MAINTENANCE COMPONENT/INFRASTRUCTUREENDLIFE
Note:Phasingaboveisbasedona50yearlifecyclewhichisconsistentwiththetimeframeusedbyMRC tocomputecapitalrecoverycosts.Dependingontheoperationsandmaintenancestrategiestheprojects maylastforlongerthan50years
STRATEGICOPTIONSFORLMBCOUNTRIESINCONSIDERINGTHE MAINSTREAMPROJECTPROPOSALS
TherearefourbroadstrategicoptionsfacingtheLMBcountriesindecidingwhetherornottoproceedwith oneormoreoftheprojectsproposedforthemainstreamMekongRiver.Thosestrategicoptionslieatthe heartoftheSEAwhichhasbeenconductedtosupportLMBcountriestomakeamoreinformedchoice betweenthembasedonthemostuptodatescientificanalysisandviews.Thefourstrategicoptionsare:
3.1
OPTION1DECIDENOTTOPROCEEDWITHTHELMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS.
Adecisionnottoproceedwouldbemadebasedonaconclusionthatmainstreamdamsacrosstheentire breadthoftheMekongRiverareaninappropriateformofdevelopmentfortheMekongRiver.Becauseofthe highrisksanduncertaintiesassociatedwiththeproposedprojects,nodamsacrosstheMekongmainstream shouldbedeveloped. Inadoptingthisoption,LMBcountriesforgothebenefitsoftheproposedmainstreamhydropowerprojects andwouldneedtofindalternativesourcesofenergytomeetthedemandsforimportsintoThailandandViet Nam,andnationallyinLaoPDRandCambodia.Thosemightbeconventionalandrenewablesourcesofenergy. ThetributariesoftheMekongwouldbecomeagreaterfocusforhydropowerdevelopment,anditispossible thatverydifferentmethodsofharnessingthepoweroftheMekongmainstreamcouldbedeveloped.Theno 21 BOT=Build,OperateandTransfer;BOOT=Build,Own,OperateandTransfer 32
mainstreamdamsoptionisnotastrategyforcomplacencyandinaction.Givenbaselinetrends,theuseofthe waterandnaturalresourcesoftheMekongstillwouldrequiremoreeffectiveandsustainablecollaborative managementthanatpresent.
3.2
OPTION2DEFERREDDECISIONONALLLMBMAINSTREAMDAMSFORASET PERIOD
Thisstrategicoptionfollowsaconclusionthatadequateinformationandconditionsforresponsibledecision makingonthemainstreamprojectsarenotinplace,andthattherisksofseriousorirreversibleharmare significant. Thedefermentdecisionislinkedtothesustainabledevelopmentprecautionaryprinciple.Theprecautionary principleholdsthat,whenscientificinvestigationhasfoundaplausibleriskofseriousorirreversible environmentalandsocialdamage,decisionmakershavearesponsibilitytoprotectthepublicandenvironment frompossibleharm.Thatprotectioncanberelaxedonlyiffurtherscientificfindingsemergeprovidingsound evidencethatnoharmwillresultoreffectivemitigationispossible.Theapplicationoftheprecautionary principleandtheneedtotakeprecautionarymeasuresistriggeredbythesatisfactionoftwoconditions: (i) Athreatofseriousorirreversibleenvironmentalandsocialdamageand (ii) Scientificuncertaintyastotheexactnatureandextentofthatdamage. Thethreatofseriousorirreversibledamagemustbeadequatelysupportedbyscientificallyplausibleevidence. Themoresignificantandthemoreuncertainthethreat,thegreaterthedegreeofprecautionrequired. Inthisoption,aroadmapforperiodicreviewandreconsiderationofthemainstreamprojectswouldbe needed.Defermentisnotanoptionforcomplacencyorinaction.Itwouldrequirecomprehensivestudieson thepotentialeffectsonnaturalandsocialsystems,focusedontheirlimitsandmanagementforsustainable development.Theeffectivenessofsafetyandmitigationmeasuresoftheproposedprojectstoreducetheir impactstoacceptablelevelswouldneedtobeproven.Existinginstitutionswouldhavetobestrengthenedand newonesestablishedtomanagetransboundaryimplicationsofdevelopmentontheMekongmainstream. ResearchwouldberequiredintoalternativesforharnessingenergyfromtheMekongmainstreamthatretain theessentialconnectivityandflowsoftheriverincludingpartialinchannelhydropower,diversionschemes andotherinnovativesystems.
3.3
OPTION3GRADUALDEVELOPMENTOFLMBMAINSTREAMPOWER
Thegradualdevelopmentoptionisbasedonaconclusionthatmostriskscanbemitigatedandthepotential irreversibleimpactsandlossesassociatedwithoneormoremainstreamdamsareacceptablegiventhe benefitswhichthedevelopmentwouldbring.22 AchoiceofOption3wouldcommittosomeoftheproposeddamsontheMekongmainstream,andacceptthe ecologicalandsocialchangesinvolvedbeforecompleteunderstandingandpreparednessforthesechangesis achieved. Thisoptionacceptsaslowandcontrolleddevelopmentofhydropoweronthemainstreamwithopportunities forlearningfromexperiencesandforadaptingdevelopmentasrequired,includingthepossibilityofcancelling projectsifpotentialimpactsareworsethanexpectedorifbetteralternativesareproposed.However,oncethe decisionhasbeentakentobuildonemainstreamdam,thenthereisnogoingbacktothenodamstatethere isnoreconsideringtheappropriatenessofmainstreamdamsasaformofdevelopmentfortheMekongRiver. Thisstrategicoptionwouldrequirethesamestudies,capacitiesandsafeguardmeasurestobeputinplaceas foroption2,butwithmuchlesstimeandopportunityforreflection,planningandimplementation.Aswith Option4,therewouldbestrongpressurefromthedifferentdevelopersforearlydecisions. Thisoptionwouldallowfortwoformsofdevelopment:a)theproposedmainstreamdamprojectsandb) alternativestofullchanneldamsforharnessingtheenergyoftheMekongmainstream.
3.4
22
OPTION4MARKETDRIVENDEVELOPMENTOFLMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
MainstreamdamisusedinthisreporttorefertohydropowerprojectsthatcompletelyblocktheMekongRiverchannel,except: (i)whereotherwiseindicated(e.g.partialdams),or(ii)inthespecificcaseofDonSahongandThakhowhicharepartialdamsand diversionsrespectively.
33
ThisstrategicoptionacceptsthebasicmainstreamdamconceptanddesignsfortheMekongRiverpromoted bydevelopers.Theprojectswouldproceedunderexistingregulatorysystemsiftherewasapurchaser (predominantlyVietNamEVNandThailandEGAT)andaccordingtohowquicklydeveloperscanprepare andprocesstheirproposals.AchoiceofOption4wouldcommittheMekongtoallormanyoftheproposed mainstreamprojectswithoutadequatepriorknowledgeorpreparednessformanagingthedevelopmentsand theirimpactssystematically.Theoptionassumesthatsafeguardsandinstitutionalarrangementsformanaging andcoordinatingmanydamscouldbeputinplaceasdevelopmentsproceed. Thisoptionhasamuchshorteranduncertaintimelineforimplementation,andlittleopportunityforlearning fromexperiencesandforbuildingthecapacitiesandinstitutionstomanagethedevelopments.Therewould benoopportunitytoplanforoptimaluseandmaintenanceoftheRiverortoexplorelessdisruptive alternativesforharnessingenergyfromtheMekongmainstream.Essentially,theprojectswouldproceed usingconventionalmainstreamhydropowerdamtechnology.Onceoneprojectwasapproved,therewouldbe increasedpressuresfromdifferentdeveloperstogoaheadwiththeirprojectsdependingondemandfor electricityandthetariffsthatcanbenegotiated.
3.5
DECIDINGONTHESTRATEGICOPTION
ThosearethefourbroadstrategicoptionsfacingLMBcountriesinconsideringthe12projectproposalsforthe mainstreamMekong.Inchoosingwhichstrategiccoursetotake,themattersofconcerntoLMBcountriesare: 1. Thenatureandextentofpotentialbenefitsofthe12proposedmainstreamprojects 2. Thenatureandextentofrisksassociatedwiththeproposals 3. Therelativestrategicimportanceandsignificanceofthevariousrisksandbenefits 4. Thelevelsofremaininguncertaintyrelatingtotherisksandbenefits TheSEAwasinitiatedtosupporttheLMBcountriesingatheringandanalyzingthebestavailabletechnical informationandstakeholderviewpointsoneachofthoseconcerns.Itthendrewconclusionsonwhetheror nottheproposedprojectsshouldbeimplementedand,ifso,underwhatconditions. Thedevelopmentplanningprocessnormallybeginswithadetailedstudyofeconomicfeasibilityandbenefits. Generally,intheMekongregion,ecologicalandsocialsustainabilityconsiderationshavenotbeenwell enunciateduntilafterdevelopmentshavebeenexpressedasprojectconceptsorevendetailedproject designs.Thisusuallyresultsinacleardefinitionofbenefitsearlyintheprocessaspartofthejustificationfor proceedingfromfeasibilitytodetaileddesign,butwiththeenvironmentalandsocialrisksbeingplayeddown, andtheresultingeconomiccostsbeingunderestimated.Thegapsinknowledgeandunderstandingmostoften relatetotheserisks.Therehasneverbeenanyrealstrategicassessmentofthenaturalresourceandsocial assetsoftheMekong,andwhatshouldbeprotectedasafoundationforsustainabledevelopment. Thatimbalanceininformationavailabletodecisionmakersearlyinplanningisaggravatedinthecaseof complexdevelopmentsinvolvingmanyprojects.Nationalenvironmentalandsocialreviewsystemshavenot engageduntildevelopmentsarewelladvancedintheshapeofspecificprojectproposals.Reviewtoolssuchas EnvironmentalImpactAssessmenthavefounditdifficulttostepbackandaddressthebroaderstrategic optionsandtheirrelativeeffectsintermsofsustainability.Theycomelateintheplanningprocess.Thisisthe situationconfrontingtheLMBcountriesinconsideringthe12mainstreamproposals.Projectdesignsarewell advanced.Momentumandcommitmentbehindtheproposalsismountingwithincreasingtimeandresources goingtotheirdesignandwithdevelopergovernmentpowersectornegotiationsmovingforward.Atnational level,theyarebeingassessedthroughEIAprocedureswithaprojectspecificfocussothatmanyofthe strategicissuesandcumulativeeffectsoftheprojectsarenotbeingcaptured. ThisSEAinitiatedthroughMRCallowsLMBcountriesandtheirdecisionmakerstostepbackforabroader examinationofallthemainstreamproposalstogetherandingroups.TheSEAattemptstofillthegap providingamorecompleteassessmentoftherisksaswellassubstantiationofthebenefits,andconsideration ofthestrategicissuesunderlyingtheprojects.ItisthefirstSEAtobeconductedforMekongRiver developmentandinvolvingthefourLMBcountriesandincludingtheinfluenceofthehydropower developmentinChina.ItfeedsintotheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlanningprocessandsupportsthe applicationoftheProceduresforNotification,PriorConsultationandAgreement(PNPCA)whichisaboutto startforoneofthemainstreamhydropowerprojects.ThePNPCAprocessisarequirementofthe1995 MekongAgreementforcountriestojointlyreviewanydevelopmentproposedfortheMekongmainstream withaviewtoreachingconsensusonwhetherornotitshouldproceed,andifso,underwhatconditions.
34
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|PARTII SEA&THEDEVELOPMENTPLANNINGCONTEXT
PARTII:ROLEOFTHESEAAND DEVELOPMENTPLANNINGCONTEXT

THESEAOFPROPOSEDLMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
SEAs,whichincludeassessmentsofcumulativeimpacts,addressthebroaderstrategicissuesusuallyrelatingto morethanoneproject.SEAsfollowsimilarstepstoEIAbuthavemuchlargerboundariesintermsoftime, spaceandsubjectcoverage.SEAsserveasanumbrellalevelofanalysisthatfeedsmorespecificEIAsand improvestheirquality.TheSEAisatoolwhichexaminesthebroadstrategicconcernsthatneedtoberesolved anddecidedpriortomakingprojectspecificdecisions. In2008theMRCSwasinstructedbytheJointCommittee:(i)toconductastrategicenvironmentalassessment ofallmainstreamprojectsinthepipelineand,inparallel,(ii)toprepareDesignGuidanceforMekong MainstreamDamsintheLowerMekongBasin.Theguidanceisprojectspecific,whiletheSEAistoexplorethe broadereconomic,socialandenvironmentalsystemimplicationsoftheprojectscollectively. Insummary,theSEAiscontributingtoadecisionmakingprocessrelatingto12hydropowerschemes proposedforthemainstreamMekongRiver.ThesearesovereigndecisionsofCambodia(2proposals)andLao PDR(10proposals).TwoprojectsarelocatedonreachesoftheriversharedbyLaoPDRandThailand inevitablytheThaigovernmentanditsprocedureswillneedtobeinvolvedindecisionsrelatingtothem. ThroughtheMRCAgreementthereisacommitmenttonotify,consultandseektoreachagreementwith neighbours.Yet,thereisadivergenceofopinionsonthebenefitsandcostsofthemainstreamprojects withingovernmentlineagencies,withintheinternationalcommunityandwithintheNGOcommunitythose viewpointsneedtobecapturedintheassessmentprocess.Animportantreasonforthatdivergenceisthe manyremaininggapsanduncertaintiesinknowledgeabouttherisksandbenefitsassociatedwiththe proposals.
4.1
SEAOBJECTIVES
TheSEAwasgiventwosetsofobjectivesrelatingto(i)sustainablemainstreamhydropowerand(ii)SEAasa toolintransboundarydevelopmentplanning: Sustainablehydropower: 1. 2. 3. Provideanunderstandingoftheimplicationsofmainstreamhydropowerdevelopment Providespecificpolicylevelrecommendationsonwhetherandhowthosehydropowerprojects shouldbestbepursued; ProvideaninitialbaselineandassessmentframeworkforindividualmainstreamprojectEIAs,thereby supportingtheProceduresforNotification,PriorConsultationandAgreement
SEAasatoolintransboundarydevelopmentplanning: 1. ServeasamethodologicalframeworkforsubbasinhydropowerSEAsintheLMB,whichwillbe carriedoutasinputtoMRCsBasinDevelopmentPlan;and 35
2.
IncludecapacitybuildingtostrengthentherespectiveanalyticalSEAcapabilitiesintheconcernedline agenciesoftheMRCMemberStates.
4.2
STEPSINTHESEAPROCESS
TheSEAisastagedprocesswithconsultation,analysisanddocumentationateachoffoursteps(Figure3). 1.Scoping:Inthefirststepthecoverageorscopeoftheassessmentwasdefined.Thescopingidentifiedthe strategicthemesandissuesbyasking: (i) Whatarethemostimportantissuesofconcerntodevelopmentandconservationofthemainstream Mekong? (ii) Howcanthoseissuesbecategoriesandprioritisedi.e.givenstrategicfocus? 2.Baselineassessment:Thesecondstepiswhatisreferredtoasthebaselineassessmentwhichinvolves gatheringinformationineachcountryandatregionallevelonthemostimportantdevelopmentconcernsand analysingtheirpasttrendsandcurrentstatus.Themainquestionsaddresseswere: (i) Whathavebeenpasttrendsforeachofthekeyissues? (ii) Whatwillthetrendslooklikewhenprojectedto2030? a) withoutmainstreamprojectsand, b) whenothertrendsanddriversareconsidered 3.Impactassessment:Inthethirdsteprisksandopportunitiesfromtheproposedmainstreamprojectsforthe strategicdevelopmentconcernsareassessed.SEAsareaformofsustainabilityanalysiswhereeconomic, socialandbiophysicaltrendsandeffectsareconsidered.Themainquestionsaddressedare: (i) Willthemainstreamprojectsaffectthetrendsinkeyissues? (ii) Willthoseaffectsprovidebenefitsand/orcosts? (iii) Willthoseaffectsenhanceorreducesustainability? 4.Avoidanceandmitigation:Thefourthstepinvolvesdefiningmeasurestoavoidormitigatethenegative effectsoftheproposeprojectsandenhancetheirbenefits.Themainquestionsconsideredare: (i) Howwillthemostimportantrisks(negativeeffects)beavoided? (ii) Howwillthemostimportantbenefits(positiveeffects)beenhanced? (iii) Howwillthenegativeeffectsthatcantbeavoidedbemitigatedi.e.bereduced? Figure3:ThefourstepsintheSEAprocess
36
4.3
SEACONSULTATIONS&DOCUMENTATION
TheSEAprocesshasrunfromJune2009toJuly2010involvingcomprehensiveconsultationateachstageof theassessmentasreflectedinFigure3.Aprogramofroundtablediscussionswasconductedineachofthe fourLMBcountrieswithsome60lineagencies.TheSEAincludedtwomissionsbytheMRCISHtoYunnan ProvinceinChinaandChinesedelegationsparticipatinginSEAworkshops.Fournationalworkshopsinvolving lineagenciesandsectorinstitutes,fivenationalandlocalworkshopsforNGOsandcivilsocietyorganizations, andthreeregionalmultistakeholderworkshopswereconducted. TheSEAhasinvolvedextensivedocumentation,reviewandcommentaryateachofthefourphases.Table2 liststheanalyticalreportspreparedprogressivelyandmadeavailableforreviewthroughtheMRCwebsiteand consultativeworkshops. Table2:SEAprogressivedocumentation
I.
1. 2. 3. 4.
Scopingphasereporting
MainInception/ScopingReport Mainstreamprojectprofilesummaries Nationalscopingconsultationsummaries SEAthemeapproachpapersandadditionalstudies designpapersincluding: (i) Economicsthemepaper (ii) Energyandpowerthemepaper (iii) Hydrology&sedimentthemepaper (iv) Terrestrialsystemsthemepaper (v) Aquaticsystemsthemepaper (vi) Fisheriesthemepaper (vii) Socialsystemsthemepaper (viii) Climatechangethemepaper TheSEACommunications,ConsultationsandCapacity BuildingPlan 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
II.
Baselineassessmentreporting
SummaryBaselineAssessmentReport Economicsbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Energyandpowerbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Hydrology&sedimentbaselineassessmentworking paper Terrestrialsystemsbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Aquaticsystemsbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Fisheriesbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Socialsystemsbaselineassessmentworkingpaper Climatechangebaselineassessmentworkingpaper
5.
III.
1.
Impactassessmentreporting
IV.
Impactassessmentreportincluding: (i) Economicsimpactassessment (ii) Energyandpowerimpactassessment (iii) Hydrology&sedimentimpactassessment (iv) Terrestrialsystemsimpactassessment (v) Aquaticsystemsimpactassessment (vi) Fisheriesimpactassessment (vii) Socialsystemsimpactassessment (viii) Climatechangeimpactassessment
Avoidance,mitigationand enhancementreporting
V.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Summarymitigationmatrixandpaper Economicsmitigationworkingpaper Energyandpowermitigationworkingpaper Hydrology&sedimentmitigationworkingpaper Terrestrialsystemsmitigationworkingpaper Aquaticsystemsmitigationworkingpaper Fisheriesmitigationworkingpaper Socialsystemsmitigationworkingpaper Climatechangemitigationworkingpaper
Finalsynthesis,conclusionsandrecommendationsreporting
FinalSEAReport
Inadditiontothereports,theSEAhaspreparedsome50supportingpowerpointpresentationswith30or moregoingontotheMRCandICEMwebsitesfordownloadingforuseascommunicationsandtraining materials. 37
5
5.1
THEDEVELOPMENTPLANNINGCONTEXTFORTHESEA
STAGESINMAINSTREAMMEKONGPROJECTPLANNING
TheSEAisbeingconductedasacontributiontoformaldevelopmentplanningsystemsineachoftheLMB countriesandatregionallevel.Figure4illustratesthefourmainstagesinplanninganddecisionmakingfor themainstreamhydropowerproposals.Insummarytheseare: Stage1:Nationalplanning Stage2:Regionalreview Stage3:Decisionsatnationalandregionallevels Stage4:Implementationatnationalandregionallevel Stage1:Nationalplanning:Theprojectproposalsareconsideredineachcountryassubmittedbydevelopers andcanincludebroaderstudiesforexampletheoptimizationstudyinitiatedbytheLaoGovernmentwhich analysedthehydrologicalperformanceofthesixcascadeprojectproposals.LaoPDRand/orCambodia couldinitiateanadhocSEAofgroupsofproposalsorofmainstreamdevelopmentgenerallyevenwithout SEAlegislativeprovision.ProposalsarebeingsubjecttotheenvironmentalimpactassessmentprocessinLao PDRandCambodiabutnotinThailand.WhetherornotanyoftheprojectsproceedhingesonThailandand VietNamdecidingtoimportmainstreampower.Therefore,SEAscouldbeinitiatedintothoseimport decisionsundernationalSEAregulationsandguidanceinbothcountries.Mainstreamdevelopmentraises complexstrategicissuesforVietNamgivenpotentialdownstreameffectsonthedelta. Stage2:Regionalreview:MRCPriorNotificationandConsultationProcess(PNPCA)involvessubmissionof documentationtoMRCbyhostcountryonaprojectbyprojectbasis,theestablishmentofaregionaltechnical committeetoreviewtheproposalandformaladvicetotheJointCommittee.ThespiritofthePNPCAprocess istogarneragreementamongstLMBnationsondecisionsthataffectthewholeregion.UndertheAgreement, oneormorecountriesmayproceedagainsttheadviceofthePNPCAconclusion,butifso,wouldbe responsiblefortheconsequencesofanyregionalimpactsasdefinedintheAgreement.GiventhatallLMB mainstreamprojectsaretargetedforexport,adecisiontoproceedwithanyoneprojectwouldrequireatthe minimumtwoLMBcountriestheimportingcountryandthehost/exportingcountry. Stage3:Decisionsatnationalandregionallevelsthemaindecisionmakersarethehostcountry governmentsforthemainstreamprojectsandthepurchasingcountrygovernmentsiftheychosetointervene intheprojectbyprojectnegotiationprocesswithastrategicnationalpolicydecisiontoimportornottoimport mainstreampower.TheMRCJointCommitteeisanadvisoryforumwhichcaninfluencenationaldecisions. Stage4:Implementationatnationalandregionallevelhydropowerdevelopmentonthemainstreamwould requirecomplexinstitutionalmanagementandcoordinationarrangementsincludingtransboundary agreementsonupstreamoperationandnotificationsforexamplebetween(i)ChinaandLaoPDR,(ii)Lao PDR/ThailandandCambodiaand(iii)CambodiaandVietNam.Respectiverolesofthepublicandprivate sectorsinLaoPDR/ThailandandCambodiawouldneedtobewelldefined. Statusofplanning:Thenationalplanningprocessisinthefirststagerelatingtothosethingswhichneedto bedonebeforedecisionsonmainstreamprojectsaremade.Planningismovingforwardonaprojectby projectbasiswithineachcountrylargelydrivenbytheprojectproponentsi.e.theindividualdevelopment companiesandinvestorsconcerned.Theprocessiscontinuingundernationalpoliciesandplansfor hydropowerdevelopmentandcrossborderpowertrade,andbilateralMOUsforpowerexchangeandtrade (Figure5). Eachmainstreamprojectproposalissubjecttothenormalprojectplanningandregulatoryproceduresofthe powerdevelopmentsectorsineachcountryandtherespectivenationalenvironmentalimpactassessment procedures(Figure6).Tenprojectproposalsarebeingreviewedandnegotiatedaccordingtonational proceduresinLaoPDRandtwo(SamborandStungTreng)inCambodia. Todate,theThaiGovernmenthasnotbecomeformallyinvolvedintheplanningandassessmentprocessfor thetwoprojectproposalsonThaireachesoftheMekongRiverBanKoumandLatSua.Forthoseprojectsto moveforwardtofinaldecision,theywouldneedtobeprocessedthroughtheThaiGovernmentsEIA procedures.AssessmentwouldneedtobeconductedonabilateralbasiswithLaoPDR.Thailandalsohas guidelinesandacommitmenttoSEAso,giventhestrategicimportanceoftheissues,developmentofthe ThaireachesofthemainstreamMekongcouldbesubjecttoanSEA.ThailandisconsideringconductinganSEA ofmajorirrigationdevelopmentintheMekongriparianprovincesinvolvingwaterofftakefromtheRiverand potentiallyfromproposedmainstreamhydropowerreservoirs. 38
ThenationalplanningproceduresforthemainstreamprojectsinLaoPDRandCambodiaareconstrainedwhen considering: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) cumulativeeffectsofmanyprojectsontheonesystem, distantdownstreameffectswithinthemainstreamchannel,floodplainanddelta multipliereffectsonareasandcommunitiesoutsidethemainchannel, tradeoffsbetweenalldevelopmentsectorsimpacted,and effectsofupstreammanagementofYunnanandtributaryschemesontheoperationofdownstream projects.
NationalspatialorintegrateddevelopmentplansforuseoftheMekongRiverarenotinplacetoguidethe processandtoprovideabackdropofzoningandsafeguardsagainstwhichdevelopmentisassessedand proceeds.TheSEAwasinitiatedbytheLMBcountriescollectivelythroughMRCaspartofStage1planning becausemanyofthestrategicissuestheprojectswouldinfluencerelatetotransboundaryandallofriver relationships.TheSEAisintendedtocontributetobetterunderstandingofthebroaderstrategicissueswhich arenotbeingcapturedbyexistingnationalplanningprocesses. Atregionallevel,theMRCbasindevelopmentplanningprocessandscenarioassessments(includingscenarios forwithandwithoutmainstreamdams)provideanopportunitytosupportdecisionmakersinconsidering thebroadtradeoffsrelatingtotheproposedprojects.ThelinkedMRCProceduresforNotification,Prior ConsultationandAgreement(PNPCA),allowsforcollaborativeassessmentofmainstreamprojectproposalsas theyarenotifiedbyproponentgovernmentsandbeforefinaldecisionsaremade. Atregionallevel,theSEAsupportsboththeMRCBasinDevelopmentPlanandPNPCAmechanismsaswellas feedingdirectlyintoplanningatnationallevel.TheSEAprovidesthenecessaryadditionalstrategicanalysis andguidancerelatingtotheMekongRiverandtothe12projectproposals.Itisthefirsttimemanyprojects havebeenproposedbydevelopersatthesametimealongthesamestretchofriver.Thenormalprojectby projectreviewproceduresatnationallevelarenotsetuptodealwithmanyprojectsproposedforoneareaor usingthesameresources.ThisSEAissetuptodothatasapilotbeingusedforthefirsttimebyMRCandis intendedasabackdropstrategicassessmentfortheprojectspecificPNPCAprocess. Figure4:Mainstagesinplanninganddecisionmakingforthemainstreamhydropowerproposals
39
Figure5:ThehydropowerdevelopmentplanningplatformsintheMekongregion
GMSsector& ecnomic corridorplans MRCBasin DevelopmentPlan (BDP) MRCProceduresfor Notification,Prior ConsultationandAgreement Bilateraltransboundaryproject planning SEAinitiatedinsupportof PNPCAandtheBDP thePNPCAprocess
SEAinsupportofthe processes
National&sectordevelopmentplans egPower DevelopmentPlans
Localprojectspecificplanning egpowerproject concessionprocessandEIAprocedures
Figure6:SimplifiedsummaryofhydropowerprojectplanningprocessinLaoPDRandCambodia
G O VER NM ENTD ECIS IO NP OINTS
DEV ELO PER INP UTS
Mo U ,Lettero fAg reem en t/Per mission
EN VIR ON MEN TAL A SS ES SM ENTP ROC EDU R ES Prefeasibility +IEE Fea sib ility+EIA EIAPr ocess N EGO TI ATION S O penta lk sw ith pur chaser Neg otia tionsonta riff DES IG N
A ppr ov alo fEIA
P ro jectDev elop m entAg reem ent (PD A)
Po w erPur chasing Ag reem ent(PP A)
Deta iled d esig n
C on cessio nAg reem ent (h and ov eragr eemen t)
D EVELOPER IN PU TS Com m issio ning
40
5.2
MRCPROCEDURESFORNOTIFICATION,PRIORCONSULTATIONANDAGREEMENT
The2003PNPCAprotocolandits2005proceduralguidelinesrequireMemberCountriestonotifytheMRCin theeventtheywishtoengageinanymajorinfrastructuredevelopments(suchashydropowerschemes)onthe mainstreamMekongortributaries,particularlyifthosedevelopmentsmayhavesignificanttransboundary impactsonpeopleortheenvironmentdownstream. On22ndSeptember2010,theMRCreceivedofficialnotificationforthemainstreamprojectinXayaburi ProvincefromtheGovernmentofLaoPDR.DuringtheXayaburiPNPCAprocess,theMRCJointCommittee, consistingofrepresentativesfromthefourMemberCountries,willconsulttotryandreachacommonposition ontheproposedmainstreamdamdevelopment.Itisestimatedthatthedetailedanalysisofalltherelated issuesandforthecountriestocometoaconclusiononprojectwilltakesomesixmonths.TheSEAispartof MRC'spreparationforthePNPCAprocess.Itprovidesananalyticalframeworkofthebenefits,costsand impactsofthefullsetofproposalsincludingcumulativeimpactsandinformationonthedistributionofcosts andbenefits. TheMRCSisrequiredtotakeaproactiveroletoassisttheJointCommitteeinassessingwhethertheproposed useisreasonableandequitable,andwhethergreaterbenefitscanbederivedthroughcooperationandtrade offs.TheMRCSisrequiredtoadvisetheJointCommitteetoensureduediligenceintheplanningprocess.23 ThePNPCAprocessrequiresthattheJointCommitteeaimtoarriveatanagreementrelatingtotheproposed use(PCA5.4.3.).InconsideringproposalsformainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentsunderthePNPCA,the JointCommitteeistoavoidinterstatedisputesbyresolvinganddeterminingifthedevelopment: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) optimiseswateruse; providesbetterbenefitsthancanbederivedthroughcooperationandtradeoffs; hasanestablishedrightofclaimagainstfurtherproposeduses; assessesthepotentialimpactsonmultistakeholdersrightsandinterests;and providesforplanningsecurity.
Termssuchasplanningsecurityfromtheprotocolarenotentirelyclearand,asthisisthefirsttimea mainstreamproposalhastriggeredthePNPCAprocess,therehasnotbeenanopportunitytotesttheir meaninginpractice.24OnepointisclearintheintentofthePNPCAprotocolthecountriesareencouraged toarriveatanagreementbasedonconsensusandsustainabilityprinciples.
5.3
LMBCOUNTRIESSUSTAINABILITYPRINCIPLESAPPLIEDINSEA
InconductingprojectspecificEIAsonthemainstreamproposalstheproponentsarerequiredtoconsiderthe policyframeworksandcommitmentsofthehostgovernmentrelatingtosustainability.AspartoftheSEA scopingphase,nationalgovernmentteamsfromvariouslineagenciescompiledlistsofsustainabilityobjectives setoutinnationalpoliciesandplansrelevanttothekeyissuesofdevelopmentconcerntotheMekongRiver. ThoseweresummarisedunderthemainstrategicthemesbeingaddressedbytheSEAandusedinnationaland regionalworkshopsasaframeworkagainstwhichthemainstreamproposalswereassessed(Table3).

23
Theconceptofduediligenceindevelopmentrelatesto: (i) Thedegreeofcareandcautionrequiredbeforemakingadecision (ii) Theprocesstoidentifyandquantifysocial,environmentalandeconomicriskspriortodecisions (iii) Theperformanceofdevelopmentagainstagreedstandardsandwithacertainstandardofcareaccordingto specifiedsafeguards (iv) Theprocessofmakingsurethataproponentcandowhattheyagreetoandthatmanagersandregulatorscan overseeandenforce. 24 In2001,notificationwasreceivedforanearlierformoftheThakhoproject,butwasdroppedbeforeconsideration.
41
Table3:Sustainabledevelopmentprinciplesdistilledfromgovernmentpolicies/lawsandstrategies: Strategictheme addressedbySEA Energy Economics Hydrologyand Sediment Aquaticecosystems Terrestrialand agriculturesystems Fisheries Socialsystems Maintainingandenhancingdiversityandproductivityoffisheriesresources Ensuringthewellbeingofvulnerableandminoritygroups Maintainingavital(living)culturaldiversity(waysofliving)andheritageof importancetoripariancommunities Climatechange Maintainingandimprovingoptionsandcapacitiestoadapttoclimatechange Maintainingnaturalpatternsofsedimentandnutrienttransportanddepositionin floodplainsandtheDelta Maintainingaquaticecosystemsforconservationofbiodiversity,connectivityand ecosystemservices Maintainingterrestrialecosystemsforconservationofbiodiversity,connectivity andecosystemservices Maintainingandenhancingdiversityandproductivityofagriculturalsystems Sustainabilityobjective Ensuringasecureanddiverseenergysupplyfromrenewableresourceswithout lossesinsustainabilityofsocialandnaturalsystems Ensuringeconomicgrowthanddevelopment,andequitabledistributionof economicbenefitsincludinglongtermsupporttovulnerableeffectedgroupsand areas
42
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|PARTIII BASELINE&IMPACTSASSESSMENT
PARTIII:BASELINE&IMPACT ASSESSMENT
TheSEAimpactassessmentprocessworkedtotheframeworkofstrategicthemesandissuesdefinedduring thescopingphase.Thebaselineassessmentdescribedpasttrendsinthosethemesandissuesandprojected themto2030withoutLMBmainstreamhydropowerdevelopment.Theimpactassessmentsummarisesthe potentialeffectsofmainstreamprojectsonthosetrendsto2030andbeyondaccordingtothestrategic themesandlinkingtheanalysistothebaselinefindingsasappropriate.Theimpactsassessmentfirstconsiders theopportunitiesandrisksdirectlyassociatedwithLMBmainstreamhydropowerwithoutanyenhancementor mitigationmeasures.Wheresuitablemitigation/enhancementmeasuresexistaqualificationismadeonthe institutionalandfinancialrequirementsaswellasthelikelihoodofsuccessfortheLMBregionalcontext.
MEKONGHYDROPOWERDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS
HydropowerisadominantdriverofdevelopmentintheLowerMekongBasin.Therearethreemainexisting andpotentialsourcesofhydropowerontheMekongsystem: 1. UpperMekongBasin(UMB):thelargeelevationdropoftheLancangRiverofferssignificantpotential forconventionalstoragehydropower.Chinaisdevelopingacascadeof8projectsontheLancang Riverwithatotalinstalledcapacityof15,450MW.Anumberofadditionalstorageprojectsarebeing consideredfortheLancangRiverupstreamofGongguogiao.Theirpotentialremainsunknown,but theremainingLancangpotentialisestimatedtobeintheorderof7,55013,480MW.25 LMBtributaries:theLMBhasaverylargetributaryhydropowerpotential.Therearesome70projects undervariouslevelsofexplorationrepresentingacapacityof9,364MW. LMBmainstream:morerecently,thechangesinthehydrologicalregimeexpectedfromUMB hydropowerhasmademainstreamhydropowermoreattractivefortheLMBmainstreamwhere12 projectsareunderconsiderationwiththecapacityof14,697MW.
2. 3.
Intermsofmeetingnationaldemand,thefourLMBcountriesofCambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNam haveadditionalnationalandGMSsourcesofhydropowerpotential: 4. NonLMBRiversofThailandandVietNam:substantialportionsofThaiandVietnamesesovereign territorylieoutsidetheLMB.InVietNam,theseareasofferadditionaltechnicalpotentialof31,000 MWofwhich21,481MWisadditionaltechnicaleconomicpotential26and1,3051,548MW (Thailand);27
25 26
RangereflectsestimatesbytheMRCandDore,J.andYuXiaogang.2004. RangereflectsestimatesbyKing,P.,Bird,J.,Haas,L.2007;ADB/MOIT,2010;andDai,L.V.2007.Technicaleconomic potentialincludessmallhydropoweridentifiedintheVietNamPowerDevelopmentPlanVII 27 Thailandhasdeveloped~2,995MWofhydropowerandisunlikelytodevelopfurthertechnicalpotentialduetopolitical commitmentsexceptforretrofittingexistingirrigationdams.
43
5. 6.
Myanmar:Myanmarhasasignificantandlargelyunderutilisedhydropowerpotentialof 37,000MW.28 GreaterYunnanProvince:TheLancang/Mekongisoneofanumberofmajorriversystemsflowing throughthesteepterrainofYunnanProvince.Theserivers,includingtheNu,JinshaandtheLancang, haveahydropowerpotentialintheorderof90,000103,130MW;
AttheearliesttheproposedLMBmainstreamprojectscouldentertheMekongsystemin20202030.The dynamismofdevelopmentintheMekongbasinrequirestheSEAtoprojectforwardabaselineto2030sothat anaccurateassessmentoftheincrementalrisksandopportunitiesposedbytheLMBmainstreamprojectscan begivenagainstarealisticprojectionofthefuturedevelopmentcontext. Projectingforwardabaselinecarrieswithitdifferingvisionsforthefutureanduncertainties.ThisSEAdraws onthreedevelopmentscenariosdevelopedbytheMRCBasinDevelopmentProgramwhichcharacterise additionaldevelopmentsinhydropower,irrigationandwatersupplyfortheLMB(Figure7andTable5): 1. Definitefuturescenario(DFS):representsallthecertainhydropowerdevelopmentswhichare existing,underconstructionorhavesecuredfirmagreementfordevelopmentwithinthenext5years (i.e.by2015) 20YwithoutLMBmainstreamdams(20Yw/o):includestheadditionaltributaryhydropowerand irrigationprojectsidentifiedbytheLMBcountrieswithintheirplansfordevelopmentinthenext20 years.Thisrepresentsthepossibleincrementintributarydevelopmentexpectedby2030. 20YwithLMBmainstreamdams(20Yw):includestheadditional12LMBmainstreamhydropower projectswhicharebeingconsideredasdevelopmentoptionsforthebasin.
2.
3.
Figure7:SummarytotalsofnationalhydropowerinterestsintheMekongBasin
6.1
SEAASSESSMENTMETHODOLOGY
TheSEAmethodologystartsbyestablishingabaselinewhichdifferentiatesbetweenimpactsofexistingand definitedevelopmentandimpactsofplanneddevelopmentwellintothefuturewithoutmainstreamprojects. ThatapproachallowstheSEAtodescribetheincrementalopportunitiesandrisksoftheLMBmainstream projectsagainsttwolevelsofbasindevelopment,themoredistantcoincidingwithcommencementofthe mainstreamprojectsoperationsifapproved.
6.1.1 THESEABASELINE
TheSEAbaselineincludestwoscenarios(i)theDefiniteFuturebaselineto2015and(ii)theprojected baselineorBDP20Ywithoutmainstreamdevelopmentscenarioto2030(Figure8,Table4).TheDefinite Futureprojectsthatexist,areunderconstructionorhavefirmplanstobeimplementedby2015,including6of themainstreamprojectsinChina,and41hydropowerprojectsonthetributariesoftheLMB(i.e.47projectsin all). TheprojectedSEAbaselineto2030includesthedevelopmentsnominatedbyeachLMBcountryasbeingpart oftheirplanningforthenext20yearsasdefinedintheBDP20Ywithoutmainstreamscenario,whichincludes some71tributaryprojectsand6Chinesedams(i.e.77projectsinall).TheSEAprojectedbaselinealsoincludes 6millionhaofirrigatedlandandwaterabstractionof4.6billioncubicmetres. 28 King,P.,Bird,J.,Haas,L.2007 44
Figure8:RelationshipoftheSEAassessmenttodefinite&foreseeabledevelopmentintheLMBby2030
+11LMBmainstream dams
SEA IMPACTS
+31tributarydams +5Chinesedams +40tributarydams 16existingdams 1Chinesedam 2030
SEA BASELINE
2000
2015
BDPBaselineBDPDefinitefutureBDP20Yw/oMstreamdamsBDP20YwMstreamdams
Table4:SummaryofdevelopmentexpectedintheBDPscenarios
Typeofdevelopment DefiniteFuture(2015) 20YwithoutLMB mainstreamhydropower (2030) 6Chinesedams 0LMBmainstreamdams 71LMBtributarydams 6x106ha 4,581x10m 20YwithLMBmainstream hydropower (2030) 6Chinesedams 11LMBmainstreamdams 71LMBtributarydams 6x106ha 4,581x10m
Hydropowerdevelopment
Irrigationdevelopment Watersupply
6Chinesedams 0LMBmainstreamdams 40LMBtributarydams 4x106ha 2,938x10m
6.1.2 THESEAIMPACTSASSESSMENT
TheSEAassessestheincrementalimpactofthedifferentcombinationsofthe12LMBmainstreamhydropower projectsontopofthe2015and2030baselinescenarios.LMBmainstreamprojectsarenotassessed individually,ratherasgroupsofdevelopmentforeachofthehydroecologicalzonesoftheMekongRiverand incombinationsofthe4damgroupingsoutlinedinsection1(Table1). Intotal,LMBmainstreamprojectsrepresent12outofthe88hydropowerdamsexistingorplannedforthe MekongBasinby2030.
7
7.1
POWERSYSTEMS
BASELINE
7.1.1 ELECTRICITYDEMAND
Analysisofthesignificanceofmainstreamhydropowerprojectsforpowergenerationneedstobeconsidered inthecontextofthehighlydynamicregionalpowersector.VietNamandThailandaccountforthevast majorityofpowerconsumptionandprojectionssuggestthattheywillcontinuetodominatethefuture demandforelectricityintheregionaccountingfor96%ofpowerdemandintheLMBby2025(Figure9). Consequently,theyarethetargetpowermarketsformostofthecurrentandplannedhydropower developmentintheLMB. Thereremainsconsiderabledebateanddivergenceofopiniononenergydemandprojectionsforeachcountry andfortheregion(Figure10).InthecaseofVietNamsfutureenergydemandforexample,estimatesbythe ADBfor2025represent54%ofofficialgovernmentestimates,adiscrepancyequivalenttoaround3.5times theannualpowerproductionfromthe12mainstreamprojects.
45
Figure9:TrendsinLMBelectricitydemandusingofficialforecasts:allcountriesshowhighaverageannual demandgrowthrates(20102025)ofbetween5.5%(Thailand)to11.6%(Cambodia)29
Figure10:LMBRegionaldemandforecaststo2025Comparisonofofficialgovernment&ADBGMSEnergy Futuresstudyprojections30

29
LoadforecastsforLaoPDRreflectpreliminaryofficialforecastsasreportedinADBRETA6440.Considerableuncertainty remainsonthedemandprojectionsandthefiguresarecurrentlyunderrevisionthroughADBRETA6440 30 OfficialforecastsreflectNationalPowerDevelopmentPlans.TheongoingADBRETA6440isbroadlyconsistentwiththe officialgovernmentforecastspresentedinthisfigure.
46
Thailand:thepowerdemandisprojectedtoincreasebyafactorof2.2inthenext15years,with averageannualprojectedincreaseof2,600MW/yearbetween2010and2025.ForecastsfortheThai nationaldemandvarybetween339,479GWhto374,447GWhby2025.31 VietNam:officialgovernmentscenariossuggestthatVietnamesepowerdemandwillcatchupwith Thaidemandin2014.Powerdemandisprojectedtoincreasebyafactorof3.7inthenext15years, withanannualincreaseinpeakdemandof4,600MWperyearbetween2010and2025.However, projectionsconductedbytheADBsuggestmoremoderategrowth.32Thatinconsistencyillustratesthe uncertaintiesrelatingtopowerdemandprojections.ForecastspredictingVietNamnationaldemand varybetween231,391GWhand450,618GWhby2025,basedonofficialandADBGMSEnergy Futuresprojections. Cambodia:ThereisanurgentneedforgreaterdomesticgenerationcapacityinCambodia.National energydemandiscomparativelylowbutisbeingmetbyaveryexpensivedieseldependentelectricity generationsystem.Cambodiaalsohasfewattractivetributaryprojects,onlymeetinghalfofthe projectedincrementalnationaldemandbetween2010and2025. LaoPDRhasalargepotentialtoproducerelativelycheapelectricalenergyfordomesticsupplyand export,withouttheLMBmainstreamprojects. Evenaggressivedemandsidemanagementmeasureswillonlyservetomoderatetherateof demandgrowth,butthisisunlikelytodiminishinterestinLMBhydropowerdevelopment
About20%oftheGMSpopulation(74millionpeople)stillhasnoaccesstoelectricity,primarilyduetolack ofgridaccessinruralareas.ThailandandVietNamhavereachedelectrificationratiosof95%and85% respectively.Between19962006,theelectrificationinLaoPDRincreasedfrom16%to60%,whileCambodia hasnonationalgridandthelowestrateofelectrificationintheregion.
7.1.2 ENERGYSOURCES&POWERTRADE
90%ofLMBelectricitygenerationisfromhydrocarbons(naturalgas,coal,andpetroleumproducts).The regionasawholeimportsabout22%oftheenergyusedinelectricitygeneration(oil,coalandgas)andfossil fuelimportsforpowergenerationarelikelytorise. LaoPDRhaslignitecoaldepositsnowunderdevelopment. Cambodia:AlthoughtherewereindicationsofbothoffshoreoilandgasinCambodia,therewereno officialestimatesofprovenorrecoverableamounts.However,studiesinrecentyearsconductedby institutionssuchastheUNDP,WorldBank,IMFandHarvardUniversityhavesuggestedthatoffshore oilreservesmaybeupto2billionbarrelswith10trillioncubicfeetofgas.Whileonlyasmall proportionmayberecoverable,theIMFestimatethatinamoderateproductionscenario,basedupon reservesof500millionbarrelsin3fields(whichisdeemedreasonablylikelygivenoilandgas productiononeithersideofCambodianterritorialwaters),by2011oilrevenuescouldbeworth aroundinitiallyUSD174millionannually,reachingamaximumofUSD1.7billionannuallyafter10 years.ThissuggeststhatCambodiamaywellhavesignificantmediumtermenergyalternatives,which areunlikelytohavetheimmediatenegativedomesticimpactsthatarelikelytobeassociatedwiththe pursuitofmainstreamhydropower.33 Thailandsprovennaturalgasreserves(intheGulfofThailand)have1012yearsleftatcurrent consumptionrates. Renewableenergysourcesoffersomeimmediateandlongertermpotentialforgridfeedingandoff gridapplications.Thailandaimstoreach20%(11,216MW)ofits2022energydemandfrom renewableenergysources.Thisamountsto78%ofThailandsmediumtermREpotential(14,300 MW),including:biomass(7,000MW);solar5,000MW;smallhydropower(700MW)andwind(1,600 MW).
31 32
RangereflectsvariationbetweenofficialgovernmentforecastsandADBGMSEnergyFuturesorecasts IRMconsultantforecastin2008republishedin2009intheADBreportBuildingaSustainableEnergyFuture,The GreaterMekongSubregionin2009. 33 IMF.2007.IMFCountryReportNo.07/293,Cambodia:selectedissues&statisticalappendix
47
BothVietNamandThailandincludenuclearpowerintheirPDPs.InVietNamthereareplansforup to8reactorssupplying20%ofgridsupplyby2030andThailandaimstohave57nuclearreactors withinthesametimehorizon. Cogenerationandothernonconventionalenergyresourcesareuntappedresources.34 DemandsidemanagementhasbecomeanimportantcomponentofThaiandVietnamesePDPs. By2007,ThailandDSMinitiativeshadreducedpeakdemandbyanestimated1,435.2MWand energyconsumptionby8,148.3GWh/yr.VietNamhasshownmoremodestprogress,reducingpeak demandbyanestimated120MWandenergyconsumptionby496GWh/yrby2007.
HighdemandsandlimitedenergyreserveswillencourageThailandandVietNamtolooktotheirneighbours forpowersupply: Thailanddoubleditsplannedpowerimportsbetween2003and2009.ThailandandLaoPDR expandedpowerundertheirMOUfrom3,000MWin2003to5,000MWin2005tothecurrent7,000 MW. ThailandsnewPDPseekstoreducethenationaldependencyonitsdiminishingreservesofnatural gas.ThenewThailandPDPissuedinJanuary2010expectspotentialimportsofupto25%ofpeak demandfromneighbouringcountiesandChinaby2030,alongwithexpandingREtechnologies,coal import,nuclearpower,andreducingcurrentdependenceonnaturalgas(now73%ofgeneration). VietNamstransitiontomarketdrivenelectricitypricinganddiminishingcoalreserveswillfoster morepowerimports.ForVietNamthequestionofpowerimportsremainsdominatedbythehigh demandgrowthpictureandimportpricingconsiderations.ItisexpectedthatVietNamwillneedto importcoalforpowergenerationfrominternationalmarketsfrom2014,aswellasdevelopnuclear power.
About10%ofLMBhydropowerpotentialhasbeenexploited.Thereismassivepotentialforhydropowerin theGreaterMekongSubregion(GMS)with176,350250,000MWtechnicallyfeasible.ThefourLMBcountries ofCambodia,LaoPDR,ThailandandVietNamhaveanestimatedcombinednationalhydropowerpotentialin theorderof50,00064,750MW,ofwhich30,000MWisavailableintheLowerMekongBasin.Includingthe LancangRiverinYunnanProvince,theMekongBasinhasahydropowerpotentialof53,000MW(Table5). LaoPDRwithitssmalldomesticdemandandlargehydropowerpotentialisthemainpower exporterintheregion.By2030,investmentsinLaotributaryhydropoweramountingtoUSD11.9 billionareexpectedtoproducesome28,571GWh/yrofhydroelectricityforexport.Theseexport revenueswouldbeworthanestimatedUSD2.1billion/yeartotheLaonationaleconomy.35 InCambodiathepoorinfrastructurenetworkandlimitedsupplyoptionsincreasenationalreliance onimportedenergyormainstreamhydropower.AnysolutiontoCambodiaspowerdemand requiresamajorandcostlyexpansioninthenationalgrid.Anewenergysupplyoptionisneededto breakthenationalrelianceonimporteddiesel.By2030,investmentsinCambodiantributary projectsamountingtoUSD1.3billionwillproducesome1,618GWh/yrofhydroelectricity.The associatedgrossexportrevenueearningswouldamounttoUSD100million/year.Additionalenergy strategiesforCambodiamightincludethedevelopmentofoffshoreoilandgasresourcesand associatedpowerplants,coalplantsandhydropowerimportsfromLaoPDR. VietNamhasalargetechnicaleconomichydropowerpotentialof20,00024,000MW,only2,519 MWofwhichlieswithintheLowerMekongBasin. Duetopoliticalcommitments,Thailandisunlikelytodevelopfurtherhydropowerprojectswithinits nationalboundary,theremaining1,3051,548MWofpotentialispredominantlythroughtheretro fittingofirrigationdamsandnotintheLowerMekongBasin.
34
Cogenerationisaformofenergyrecyclinginwhichtheexhaustheatfromapowerproductionprocessiscapturedand usedforindustrialordomesticheating 35 ThesmallsizeoftheLaonationaldemandmeansthatindividualminingprojectseachwithdemandsofseveralhundred MWcaninducesignificantspikesinnationaldemand.Futureexpansionoftheminingandindustrialprocessingindustries wouldaffectLaoPDRdemandfigures.
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Table5:IdentifiedLMBHydropowerProjectsbyLevelof Development
7.2
IMPACTSASSESSMENT
DemandfromThaiandVietnamesemarketsisdrivingthemainstreamhydropowerprojectsinLaoPDRand Cambodia.ThailandandVietNamaretheprimaryexportmarketsforLMBmainstreamhydropower,and togetherarelikelytoaccountforaround90%oftheelectricalenergygeneratedbytheseprojects,ofwhich ThailandwillimportaroundtwothirdsandVietNamonethird.However,giventhesizeofthepowersectors inthesecountriestheimpactonpowerpriceislikelytobelimited.Incontrast,theexpectationisthatthe remaining10%ofpowergeneratedbytheseprojectswillbedestinedfordomesticconsumption,by2025this wouldaccountforaround14%ofdomesticconsumptionpowerconsumptioninCambodiaand29%inLao PDR.Alternative(thermal)generationcostsforthesecountriescouldbetwotofourtimesthecostof hydropowerdevelopment.ForLaoPDRwhichhassignificantuntappedtributaryhydropowerpotentialthe mainstreamprojectsareoflesssignificancetothedomesticpowersectorthanforCambodiawhichhaslimited tributarypotential.
7.2.1 POWERFROMTHELMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
The12proposedmainstreamprojectswouldrepresent~16%(or13,427MW)oftotalinstalledhydropower capacity in the region by 2025, contributing ~12% of the electrical energy generated by hydropower with 34.4TWh/yrfromLaoPDRand17.8TWH/yrfromCambodia(Figure11). Mainstream hydroelectric projects proposed for Lao PDR and Cambodia represent approximately 60% of newenergypotentialfromhydroelectricprojectsidentifiedintheLowerMekongBasinforconsiderationby 2030(i.e.ofhydropowerschemesnotyetoperatingorundergoingfirmdevelopment). Table6:NationalpowerdemandforecastsforLMBcountriesby2025 Cambodia Lao PDR
PeakDemand(MW) NationalEnergyDemand(GWh/yr) LMBmainstreamdamsMeanAnnualEnergy(GWh/yr) PercentcontributionofLMBmainstreamhydropowerto nationaldemand* PercentcontributionofLMBmainstreamhydropowerto peakdemand 2,401 14,302 19,740 13.8% 2,696 16,060 46,054 28.7%
Thailand Viet Nam

53,824 339,479 11.6% 72,445 450,618 4.4%
TOTAL/ Regional
130,366 820,458 65,794 8.3% 11.3%
49
*itisassumedthat90%ofLMBmainstreampowergenerationisforexporttoThailandandVietNam,with10%for domesticdemand
TheLMBmainstreamprojectsrepresentonly68%oftheprojectedLMBpowerneedsfor2025.Thisisthe equivalenttotheaverageprojectedincrementalgrowthinenergydemandtheLMBexperiencesinayear (taking11mainstreamdamsintoconsiderationandassumingatotalinstalledcapacityof14,000MWand 66,000GWhperyear).36 ThemainstreamproposalsaremostcriticaltopowersectordevelopmentinCambodiaeventhoughenergy frommainstreamprojectswouldbeusedregionally.37Cambodiahasthemostlimitedrangeofalternativesfor meetingnationalpowerdemand.Asyethasnoprovenfossilfuelreserves,italsohaslimitedtributary potential.Evenso,ifallCambodiastributaryprojectsweredeveloped,theywouldprobablyreducethe energycosts(highestintheLMB)byabout30%. Figure11:AssessingthebenefitsofLMBmainstreamhydropowertothepowersectors(supplycurves):the mainstreamLMBprojectswillsupplyanadditional66.5TWh/yratprojectedmarketcompetitivepricesforthe region(greenband).
TheLaohydroelectricindustrycandeveloptributaryprojectsfordomesticuseandpowerexportcan continueatahealthypacewithoutmainstreamprojectsgiventhelargeinventoryofeconomicallyattractive tributaryprojectsinLaoPDRsuitableforpowerexport.Withoutmainstreamdevelopment,thepotentialscale ofannualexportearningswouldbereduced. AssignificanttributarypotentialexistsinLaoPDR,LMBmainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentisunlikelyto makepowercheaperfromadomesticsupplyperspective. ForVietNamandThailand,LMBmainstreamhydropowerisofminorsignificancetonationalenergy demand.WhilethenetpowerbenefitattributabletomainstreamdamsisestimatedtobeintheregionofUSD 655millionannuallyforThailandandVietNam,thisconstituteslessthan1%oftheestimatedannualvalueof thepowersectorby2025.Powerpriceandenergysecurityconsiderationsaremoreimportantforimporting countries.TheThaiandVietnamesepowersectorsarecharacterisedbyarelativelylowthermalgeneration cost.Therefore,mainstreamhydropowerwillhaveaminorimpactonelectricitypricesinthosepowersystems (reducingcoststoconsumersbyabout1.5%).GiventheexpectedsizeofThaiandVietnamesepowerdemand, themainstreamprojectswillnotradicallyalterthenationalenergysupplystrategiesofthosecountries
36
Thakhothesmallestofthemainstreamprojectswasnotincludedintheassessmentofinstalledcapacity,andwould havethesmallestcontributiontoregionalinstalledcapacityofalltheproposedLMPmainstreamprojects 37 SeveralcircumstancesdeterminethatthetwomainstreamprojectsinCambodia(SamborandStungTreng)are importanttoCambodiaspowersector.First,Cambodiahasaveryexpensivegenerationsystemalmostentirelydependent onimportedoil.Thus,notonlydoesCambodiahavetoprovideaffordablepowertomeetincrementaldemand,butitalso needstoreplaceitsexistinggenerationasmuchaspossible.Second,Cambodiahasaverysmallinventoryofattractive tributaryprojects.Theenergypotentialoftheseprojectsisnotsufficienttomeetincrementaldemands,letalonereplace existinggenerationorexport.Third,Cambodiahasnosignificantexperienceinhydroelectricdevelopmentoroperation andthuswillrelymuchmorethanLaoPDRonforeignpartnerships,whichcanonlybeattractedbymainstreamprojects enabledbypowerexports.
50
applyingleastcostcriteriaalone.Yet,coalfiredplantsequivalenttothe12mainstreamprojectswould requirearound15milliontonnesofcoalayear,muchofwhichwouldneedtobeimported. IfLMBmainstreamprojectswerenotpursued:
Thailand&VietNam Limiteddirectimpactsonpowersystemsofimportingcountries(ThailandandVietNam). Tariffswouldnotbeappreciablyaffected. Nocompromiseofnationalenergysupplystrategiesbasedonleastcostcriteria Reductioninsupplydiversity Cambodia&LaoPDR ImpactsonCambodiasdomesticpowersectorwouldbegreatestofallLMBcountries. Cambodiamaypursuecoalimportsforbulkpowersupply. Lao,butparticularlyCambodia,wouldexperiencereducedpotentialpowerexportrevenueearnings(earningsaremore limitedininitialyearsasdebtisserviced,equitycontributionrecovered).
7.2.2 DIRECTECONOMICBENEFITSOFMAINSTREAMPROJECTSONTHEPOWER SECTOR

TheLMBmainstreamdamsrepresentasignificantoverallpowerbenefitfortheLMBcountriesofUSD34 billion/yrby2030(Figure12).Economicbenefitsdependonthefuturegenerationmixassumed.38 LaoPDRisthegreatestbeneficiaryoftheeconomicbenefitsdirectlyassociatedwithmainstream hydropower.LaoPDRislikelytoreceivemorethan70%ofoverallbenefitsassociatedwiththe12projects, withCambodiaandThailandreceiving1112%andVietNam5%. EstimatesofinvestmentsrequiredtodevelopthemainstreamprojectsareintheorderofUSD18to25 billiondollars~75%inLaoPDRand~25%inCambodia(Figure13). LaoPDRwillreceive70%ofexportrevenuesgeneratedbyLMBmainstreamhydropower(USD2.6billion), withCambodiareceiving30%(USD1.2billion).ForLaoPDR,theupperclusterrepresentstwothirdsofthe nationalnetpowerbenefit(Figure11).ThebulkofthesebenefitsforLaoPDRandCambodiadonotaccrueto thecountryasawholeortherespectivegovernments,ratherduringtheconcessionperiodtheyaccruetothe developersandfinanciersoftheprojects.Thesameistruetotheexportrevenues. TheLMBmainstreamprojectscanonlybedevelopedjointlybythehostcountryandtheexportmarket country(orconceivablyathirdpartyforeigninvestor)undercomplexfinancialandtradearrangements, whichinsomecircumstancesmaygobeyondtheelectricitysectorstoinvolvecommercialcommitmentsofa bilateralorregionalnature.Thisisbecauseofthemagnitudeofinvestmentrequiredrelativetothehost countriesfinancingability. Figure12:BenefitsofLMBmainstreamhydropowertotheLMBcountries:(left)grossexportrevenue;and (right)Netoverallpowerbenefit
38
Theannualgrossbenefitoftheprojectfrompowersupplyiscalculatedforeachcountrybytheproductofthepower suppliedbythereplacementcostofpowerineachcountry.Forthehostcountrythenetannualbenefitisthesumofthe benefitsfrompowersupplyandfromexportlesstheannualcostoftheproject.Forimportingcountriesthenetoverall powerbenefitisthedifferencebetweenthereplacementvalueofimportedpowerandthecostofimportcalculatedatthe proxytradeprice.
51
Figure13:Nationalsummaryofthepowersectorimpacts
52
7.2.3 OTHERBENEFITSFORTHEPOWERSECTOR
AnumberofnonpoweropportunitiesassociatedwithhydropowerdevelopmentintheLMBexistwhichcan offerbothregionalandnationalbenefits. 53
Figure 14: Total present employment value of mainstream groups: (top) % of project groups to overall benefit,(bottom)nationalemploymentbenefitfrombothconstruction&operations
DirectjobcreationisexpectedtogenerateanestimatedUSD7.9billioninwageswithalmost85%ofthis arisingduringtheconstructionphase.Muchofthelabour(especiallyforskilledandsemiskilledjobs)islikely tobeimportedfromsurroundingcountriesotherthanthehostcountries(especiallyVietNamandChina).The distributionofjobcreationduringbothconstructionandoperationisestimatedtobe~USD5billionforLao PDRand~USD3billionforCambodiabasedonthenumberandsizeofmainstreamprojectsintheirterritories (Figure14). Atleast50%ofprojectinputsincludingengineeringservices,electricalandmechanicalequipmentarelikely tobesourcedfromoutsidethehostcountriesandLMBregion.WithintheLMBregiononlyThailandhas somecapacityformanufacturingsomeoftheexpensivehydrauliccomponentsrequiredthoughitisexpected thatthemajoritywillneedtobesourcedfromoutsidetheregion. TheLMBmainstreamdamsarecalculatedtohaveagrossGHGoffsetpotentialofequivalenttoaround52 milliontonnesCO2e/yrby2030.Netemissionsreductionsareestimatedtobearound4050milliontonnes CO2e/yr3940.
ECONOMICSYSTEMS
IncommonwithothercountriesinthewiderEastAsiaregion,overthelasttwodecadesthefourcountriesof theLMBhaveexperiencedrapideconomicdevelopment.Thishaslargelybeendrivenbyindustrialgrowth,and inparticulargrowthinmanufacturingproductionforexport.Developmenthasbeenassociatedwithrapid urbanization,povertyreduction,andincreasesinconsumptionandpersonalincome.Economicgrowth patternsvarygreatlyacrossthefourcountriesreflectingdifferentdevelopmenthistoriesandresource endowments.Thailandslongerhistoryofeconomicgrowthandrelativeeconomicmaturityisreflectedinthe sizeandstructureofitseconomywhichaccountedfor73%ofLMBGDPin2008,followedbyVietNam accountingfor23%,andCambodiaandLaoPDRaccountingfor3%and1%respectively. Figure15showsaprojectionofeconomicperformanceintheregion.Accordingtotheseprojections,Thailand willremainbyfarthelargesteconomyin2030althoughafastergrowthrateinVietNamwillmeanitaccounts foranincreasingproportionofLMBproductivity.Theregionasawholeisexpectedtogrow240%from2005 levelsby2030. Figure15:LMBcountrieseconomicgrowth19932030
39 40
ThelevelofemissionsfromreservoirsiscontestedseeclimatechangeanalysisintheSEAimpactassessmentreport. IftheseprojectswereeligibleforoffsetsthenatapriceofUSD18.7tonneofCO2e(equivalenttotheaveragepriceof EUETSEuropeanUnionAllowancesin2009)theycouldbeworthbetweenUSD748millionandUSD935millionannually. However,thisishighlyunlikelygiven(i)thattheseprojectsareunlikelytobedeemedadditionalandwouldhavegone aheadwhetherornotcarbonfinancingwasavailable;and(ii)itisunclearhowtheycouldmeetsustainabilitycriteria whicharelikelytobetightenedinthefuture.
54
8.1
BASELINE
8.1.1 MACROECONOMICIMPLICATIONSOFLARGESCALENATURALRESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

Macroeconomicopportunitiesandrisksrelatetothelargescaleandrapidlyincreasinglevelsofinvestmentin naturalresources(i.e.hydropower,miningandplantationdevelopment)inparticularinLaoPDR(andpossibly Cambodia).Thispotentiallyrepresentsasignificantboostforthissmalleconomycrowdingininvestmentand increasingconsumptionacrossanumberofsectors. Netrevenuesaccruingtogovernmentfromnaturalresourceexploitationandhydropowerinparticular representasignificantsourceofpotentialfundingforsocialdevelopmentexpenditures.Forexample,revenues fromNT2havebeenringfencedforhealthandeducationexpenditures41.Conversely,suchrapidgrowthin thesenaturalresourcesectorspotentiallyposesarisktocompetingsectorsbydrivinguprelativepricelevels resultinginexchangerateappreciation.Thishasthepotentialtoreducetheinternalandexternal competitivenessofothersectorsintheeconomy(suchasagricultureandmanufacturing). Largescaleandrapidlyincreasinginvestmentinnaturalresources(andinparticularhydropower)inthe regionislargelyfundedbytheforeignprivatesector.InvestmentinLMBhydropoweroverthelasttwo decadeshasbeenexpandingrapidly.Inthepast10yearshydropowerinvestmenthasgrownfrom~USD200 milliontomorethanUSD1billion.ThesameperiodhasseeninvestmentshiftawayfromThailandaspotential developmentopportunitiesaremostlyutilisedtowardsLaoPDRandVietNam. TributaryhydropowerdevelopmentintheLMBrepresentsamassiveinvestmentandthegenerationof substantialforeignexchangeforsomecountries(Table7).InthespecialcaseofLaoPDR,investmentinlarge hydropowerandminingprojectsaddedanestimated2.5percenttoGDPgrowthin2007,oraboutUSD18 millionin2007. Lookingtothefuture,excludingLMBmainstreamprojects,annualinvestmentintributaryhydropowerin thebasinisexpectedtopeakin20112012ataroundUSD1.9billion,withthevastmajorityofthis investmentbeingconcentratedinLaoPDR,reachingapeakannualinflowofUSD1.7billioninhydropower investment. Table7:PlannedinvestmentinLMBhydropoweraverageannualinvestment19902016(millionUSD) Cambodia LaoPDR Thailand VietNam LMBtotal
41
Althoughasfinancialresourcesaretypicallyhighlyfungibletheseexpenditurescannotreallybeconsideredindependent oftotalgovernmentexpenditure.AsStiglitzremarked,becausefinancialresourcesarefungiblethedevelopmentalbenefit ofanextradollarofdevelopmentexpendituresisonlythatofgovernmentexpendituresatthemargin.
55
Average19902016 Average19902009 Average20102016
29 0 110
429 235 985
32 43 0
90 105 47
580 383 1,142
LAOPDR42:ThehighlevelsofgrowthexperiencedbyLaoPDRhavebeendrivenbyinvestmentsinraw materialsincludingagroforestryplantations,miningandhydropower.Theseinvestmentshaveundoubtedly addedtogrowthinGDP,haveboostedexportearningsfromcommoditiesexports,andseemtobean importantsourceofforeignexchange. ThisinfluxofforeignexchangeislikelytohaveprofoundeffectsonthekeymacroeconomicvariablesinLao PDR,potentiallyleadingtoexchangerateappreciation.Further,LaoPDRisregardedasacountrywithahigh riskofdebtdistressbothfromexternalandinternalindebtedness.Theimplicationsofanyadditionaldebt obligationsthegovernmentofLaoPDRincursasaresultofhydropowerdevelopmentneedtobeconsidered verycarefully.
8.1.2 DIRECTEMPLOYMENTFROMTRIBUTARYHYDROPOWER
Developmentoftributaryhydropowerimpliesthecreationofsignificantshorttermemploymentinthe region,resultinginanestimatedUSD5.3billioninwagesfortheLMB.Totalpresentvalueofwagesfrom directemploymentduringconstructionandoperationsoftributaryprojectsamounttoUSD3.9billion(Lao PDR),USD0.4billion(Cambodia),andUSD0.9billion(VietNam)by2030.
8.1.3 DISTRIBUTIONALTRENDSINTHELMB
Ruralpopulationsinthebasinarelikelytoremainrelativelystabledespitehighnaturalgrowthratesasrapid ruralurbanmigrationcontinues,drivenbydecliningnaturalresourcesbasesinuplandareasandincreasing employmentopportunitiesinlowlandandurbanareas.Povertyratesinthebasinarehigherinremoteupland areasandlowerclosertothemainstreamandinlargerurbansettlements.Nevertheless,populationdensities arehigherinlowlandareasclosetotheriversotheabsolutenumbersofpooraregreaterclosertothe mainstreamandinurbanareas.Thistrendisincreasingwithruralurbanmigration.Despiterapidgrowthin industryandservicesectors,agricultureandfisheriesremainimportantforlivelihoodsacrossthebasin. SLOWINGPOPULATIONGROWTH:InallLMBcountries,populationrateshavebeguntoslowandwill continuetodecline.WhilepopulationgrowthratesinCambodiaandLaoPDRarestillrelativelyhigh(1.81%in bothcountries),theyhavebeenslowingdownoverthelast10years.VietNamandThailand,incontrasthave lowerbutstillslowingpopulationgrowthrates(1.19%and0.93%respectively). INCREASINGMIGRATION:IncreasingproportionsoftheLMBpopulationaremovingacrossnationaland internationalboundariesusuallyfromruraltourbanareas.Migrationsaredrivenprimarilybyaperception ofimprovedincomeearningopportunitieselsewhereandfacilitatedbyeverimprovingtransportation infrastructure.ThetwomaintypesofmigrationintheLMBmigration43are: (i) migrationstourbancentres.44OnlyinLaoPDRareruralpopulationsincreasinginproportiontothe nationalpopulation,and (ii) migrationstoThailandfromneighbouringcountries. POVERTYREDUCTIONTRENDS:Economicgrowthhasbroughtsignificantreductionsinpovertyratesacross theLMB.Overthenext20yearslevelsofabsolutepovertyarelikelytodecline,andpovertyconcentratedin remoteandeconomicallymarginallocationsislikelytoremainaproblem..
42 43
Thailand:rapidpovertyreductiontookplaceinthehighgrowthdecadeofthe1980s,povertyhas nowstabilisedat~2%.Thissuggeststhatsomeproportionofthepoorremainuntouchedby economicgrowth. VietNam:rapidpovertyreductioninthelast12years,droppingfromover60%in1993to~20%by 2006. LaoPDR:povertyratereducedfrom55%to45%between1992and2004.
LaoPDRissingledouthereasitisthesmallesteconomyintheregionbyaconsiderablemargin Inalllikelihoodfiguresunderestimatethescaleofruralurbanandcrossbordermigrationmuchofitistemporaryand unofficial. 44 OnlyinLaoPDRdofiguresshowgrowthintheproportionofruralpopulationintotalpopulation.
56
Cambodia:slowerreductionwithpovertylevelsreducingfrom49%in1994to~40%in2005.
LIVELIHOODS:Thereareanumberofimportantlivelihoodstrendslikelytoemergeoverthenext20yearsin theLMB: Thenumberofpeopleinvolvedinthecasheconomyislikelytoincreasebothasruralurban migrationincreasesandopportunitiesforwageemploymentinruralareasincreases,overallthe proportionofthelabourforceengagedinwagelabourwillincrease.Salesofcashcropsarealsolikely toincreaseasmarketingagriculturalgoodsbecomesmorecommonwithbetteraccesstomarkets throughimprovedinfrastructure. Commercialagricultureislikelytoexpand,withincreasingmechanisationandconsolidationofland holdingsespeciallyinThailandandVietNam,thiswillbeassociatedwithdecliningruralpopulations, andincreasingfarmproductivityandincome. Rurallivelihoodsdependantonstressednaturalresourcesmayalsocomeunderpressure.Thiswill exacerbateinequalitiesbetweenruralandurbanareasasnaturalresourcebasesuponwhichrural livelihoodsdependareincreasinglyexploitedasasourceofinputstotheindustrialsector.
8.2
IMPACTSASSESSMENT
8.2.1 CAPITALINVESTMENT
ThescaleofproposedFDIinthe12proposedmainstreamprojectsbetween2010and2030isanestimated USD1825billion.ThisislargerelativetothesizeofthehostcountryeconomiesBasedonavailable investmentschedules,mainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentwouldimplyextrainvestmentfortheperiodof 20162029ofonaverageUSD1.5billionayear.Figure16givesanestimatedinvestmentschedule45for hydropowerdevelopmentintheLMB.TheseinvestmentsareparticularlylargerelativetothesizeoftheLao PDReconomy(Figure17).Mostofthefundingforthesedevelopmentsisexpectedtocomefromsources externaltoCambodiaandLaoPDR. Figure16:EstimatedannualinvestmentinLMBhydropower20042029
Asignificantportionofthisinvestmentwillpassthroughthehostcountriesasmanyinputs(engineering, equipmentandskilledlabouretc)willneedtobesourcedfromoutsidetheseeconomies.Mostexpenditures oncivilworks(constructionofdamsincludinginputssuchasconcrete,sandandaggregate,steelandunskilled labour),arelikelytobesourcedlocally. Figure17:HydropowerinvestmentinLaoPDR20042021:investmentscompriseupto30%oftheLaoGDP.
45
Thisscheduleisbasedonthebestavailabledata.However,changesindesign,otherunforeseenconstruction contingenciesandchangesinpricelevelsmeaninvestmentcostsliabletosignificantchanges.Moreover,thetimeschedule fortheseprojectsislikelytochangealsodependinguponarangeofcontingencies.
57
8.2.2 REVENUEGENERATION
Therewillbesignificantlongertermopportunitiesfromexportrevenuefortheexportingcountries.Those opportunitieswillbemorelimitedduringthe25yearconcessionperiods.Theseadditionalrevenuesoffer theopportunityforincreasedinvestmentinnationalandlocaldevelopment,includingpublicservicesand povertyalleviation.However,thereislittleinformationontherevenueflowovertimeandhowrevenuesare likelytobespent.Thiswilldependonhowthefinancingfortheseprojectsisstructured.46 MacroeconomicimpactsarelikelytobeofparticularsignificanceforLaoPDRduetothesizeoftheLMB mainstreamhydropowerprojectsrelativetotherestoftheeconomy.Thesewillresultfromi)aninfluxof investmentcapitalandforeignexchangerevenueduetomainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentandpossibly, ii)increasedlevelsofgovernmentdebtneededtofundgovernmentequitystakesinthesedevelopments. Aboominghydropowersectorandincreasedgovernmentexpenditurescouldleadtomacroeconomic imbalances,realexchangerateappreciationandthushaveanegativeeconomicimpactonothersectorssuch asmanufacturingandagriculture.Bothsectorsareimportantforpovertyreduction. Increasedlevelsofhostcountrygovernmentdebtcouldposeaconcernintheshorttomediumtermtothe extentthat:i)nationaldebtobligationsareincurredforgovernmentequityshareinLMBschemes;and,ii)the traditionalsourcesofconcessionaryfinancearenotavailabletofundgovernmentequitycontributions.Itis notcleartowhatextentanyextracostofdebtservice,andincreasedriskpremiumsonsovereigndebtwillbe offsetbyincreasedrevenuesfromtheseprojectsintheshortterm.
8.2.3 SECTORIMPACTS
Mainstreamdevelopmentislikelytoimplyincreasedrisksandopportunitiesacrossanumberofsectors. Sectorslikelytobesignificantlyaffectedbymainstreamdamconstructionincludefisheries,agricultureand forestry,tourism,navigation,construction,andminingandindustrysectors.Table8estimatesthelikely impactsintermsofchangesinoutput.Forexample,forpaddyproductionlossesandgainsduetothe developmentshavebeenincluded.Thevaluesareindicativeandgenerallydonotrepresenteconomicbenefits orcosts,nordotheycapturemostindirecteconomicimpactsduetothehydropowerdevelopments.
46
ExperienceinLaoPDRonexportingpowerfromtributaryprojectsthatareprivatesectordevelopedshowsanetpositive revenueflowtoGovernmentduringtheconcessionperiod(25years).
58
Table8:Summaryofsectorcostsandbenefitsduetomainstreamdevelopment(to2030assumingall12MSHPdamsgoahead) Description Causeof Annualnetloss/gaindueto Futuretrendswithmainstreamdevelopment Indicativevalues loss/gain mainstreamdevelopment

Loss(capture fisheries) Gain (reservoir fisheries) Loss(marine fisheriesfrom lossofnutrients tothesediment plume) Loss(knockon effectoffisheries loss) Directlossof340,000tonnes tonnes/year LossofUSD476million/year Mostlikely10,000tonnes (30,000max) USD14million/year(42 millionmax) Lossof4,535tonnesof phosphatestomarine area/year Replacementvalueofaround USD40million/year Lossof2millionboats withoutengines,worthUSD 1,0002,000each USD24billionlikelyto declineinproportiontothe fisheries Lossof54%ofriverbank gardensinzones2,3and4 LossofUSD21million/year Lossof7,962haofpaddy Lossof22,475tonnesof rice/year LossofUSD4.1million/year Lossof3,400tonnesof phosphatestoflood plains/year Replacementvalueof fertiliseraroundUSD24 million/year Gainof17,866haofpaddy Gainof77,701tonnesof rice/year GainofUSD15.54 million/year Fishmigrationrouteswillbeblockedandfloodpulseswillbedisrupted,declineinfish populationslikelytoresult.Thisislikelytobetruebothformigratoryspeciesand specieswhichdependuponfloodplainsforSomeofthislossmaybeoffsetbythe introductionofreservoiraquaculturebutpotentialyieldsfromthisremainhighly uncertain.
Nett gain/ loss
Fishproduction Fisheries
Ancillaryandupstream industries(boatmanufacture)
Mekongdeltamarinefisheriesestimatedcatchin2008was563,000tonnesworth betweenUSD1.12billion.Productivityofthefisheriesinthisareaiscloselyrelated tothesedimentplumeandassociatednutrientsdeliveredbytheMekongriver.No dataavailablelinkingnutrientlevelsinsedimentplumewithfisheriesproductivity. Replacementcostofnutrientsusedasabasicindicator. Industriesincludeboatandfishingtacklemanufacture,saltproduction,ice production,andupstreamindustriesincludefishprocessing(manufactureoffish sauce,driedfishandotherfishproducts) Lossofriverbankgardensduetoinundationoflongstretchesofthemainstreamriver inzones2,3and4.Thisestimatedoesnotincludeanydifficultiesincultivating riverbankgardensdownstreamofthedams. Relativelysmalllossesfrominundationofpaddymorethanoffsetbygainsresulting fromincreasedirrigationassociatedwithmainstreamhydropowerdevelopment.
Netloss
Riverbankgardenproduction
Loss(riverbank gardens) Loss(inundated paddyand transmission lines)
Agriculture andforestry
Paddyproduction
Loss(valueof nutrients (Phosphates)to agriculture)
Anyreductioninsedimentloadandfloodingwillleadtoadecreaseinassociated nutrientreplenishment.Measuredaslossofphosphatesduetosedimenttrappingat eachoftheMSHPdams.Whileproductivityimplicationsforagriculturecouldnotbe calculated,costofartificialreplacementsgiven.
Netloss
Gain(increased irrigation)
Irrigationprojectsassociatedwiththehydropowerdevelopmentsarelikelytoimprove landproductivityandriceproductioninsomeareas.
59
Tourism
Tourismrevenues
Loss(degradation ofnatural resourcebase) Gain(HPproject viewing)
N/A
Somevaluableenvironmentalassets(e.g.charismaticspeciesliketheIrawaddy dolphin&locations)uponwhichburgeoningecotourismindustryisbasedwillbe degradedorlostduetochangesinthehydrologyandecologyofthemainstream resultingfromtheseprojects. Largehydroelectricityprojectsoftenattract(mainlydomestic)tourism(forexample HoaBinhdaminnorthernVietNam) Mainstreamhydropowerislikelytoincreasethenavigabilityoftheriverasitwill increasethedepthoftheriveralongsignificantstretches.However,thiswillbe dependentupondesigningdamssuchthattheyallownavigation.Whichprojectsgo aheadwillaffecttheoverallnavigabilityoftheriver.Therefore,impactsonnavigability andaredependentupondamdesign. Mainstreamhydropowerwillincreaseinstabilityoftheriverchannelsalongthe importantnavigationroutesbetweenthedeltamouthandPhnomPenh Evenwithnavigationlockstheseprojectswillincreasethetimetakenandprobable costsofnavigation Unlikelytobesignificantintheshortterm. Changesinmainstreamhabitatswillincreaselossofcurrentlyeconomicallyimportant aquaticplants. Mostoftheinstreamwetlandswillbelostinzones2,3and4withsignificantimpacts ontheirproductivityandtheinalllikelihoodotherecosystemservicestheyprovide (formoreinformationonthecalculationofthesevaluesseebackground methodologicalpaper)
Netloss
N/A N/A N/A
Freighttransport
Gain(increased navigability) Gain(increased navigability)
Unsure
Navigation
Passengertransport Loss(decreased longitudinal connectivity) Loss(reduced sedimentload) Loss(lossof habitat) Loss(dueto reservoir creation) N/A
Construction Aquatic plants
Sandandgravelextraction output Subsistence Cleanwatersupply,plantsfor foodandmedicines,fuelwood, nutrientrecycling,water purificationwildlifehabitats groundwaterrecharge,flood control,carbonsequestration, stormprotectionetc Nutrientreplenishment,wildlife habitat,damagetogoodsand livelihoods Cropproductivity
N/A N/A LossofbetweenUSD4million andUSD13.8millionperyear (2000prices)
N/A Net loss Netloss
Wetlands
Flooding/ floodcontrol Saline intrusion
Gain(reduction inflooding) N/A
N/A
Someminorfloodcontroleffects,buttherebenefitsoffsetbyunpredictabilityof decisionsforopening/closingspillwaygatesandflushinggatesatthedams Nosignificantimpact
Net loss
N/A
N/ A
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8.2.4 DISTRIBUTIONALIMPACTS&POVERTYALLEVIATION
Thepoorwouldbedisproportionallynegativelyimpactedbythemainstreamhydropowerdevelopment. Higherpovertyratesareusuallyfoundinremoteuplandareasawayfromthemainstream.However,higher populationdensitiesmeanthattheabsolutenumberofpoorishigherinlowlandareasclosertothe mainstream.Thistrendhasbeenincreasingaslivelihoodopportunitiesdevelopinlowland(andassociated urbanareas),andasthenaturalresourcebaseinuplandareasaredegraded.Negativeimpactsonthealready vulnerableruralpoormayincreaseruralurbanmigration,andhaveknockonimplicationsforurbanpoverty rates. Theimpactonfoodsecurityandeconomiccostsassociatedwithincreasedmalnutritionamongstvulnerable populationsarelikelytobehigh. Mainstreamprojectsarelikelytohaveasignificantimpactonthenutritionalstatusofthepoorgiventhe extentoftheexpectedreductioninfisheries.LMBpopulationsarehighlydependentonfishasasourceof protein.Thepoordependproportionatelymoreonfish(andotheraquaticanimal)consumptionthanother groupsandtheyarelikelytobeunabletodiversifytheirconsumptionawaytootherfoodsourceseasily. Impactsrelatedtothelossofagriculturalland(ininundatedareasandriverbankgardens),offshore fisheriesandfloodplainagriculture(throughthelossofsedimentandassociatednutrients),arelikelytofall moreheavilyonpoorergroups.Theurbanpoormaybeparticularlyatriskfromanyimpactresultinginan increaseinfoodprices.Thismaybeaggravatedbyincreasesinurbanpovertyfromincreasedruralurban migrationduetothedecliningnaturalresourcebase.Inthelongertermclimatechangeimpactscould compoundthesenegativeimpacts. Theexpectedlossoffisheriesduetomainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentislikelytobeakeyimpacton thepoor.Thepoortendtobemorevulnerabletoadversechangesinenvironmentalconditions.Theyhave fewerassets,savings,skillsandknowledgethatgiveflexibilityinmakingadjustmentstolivelihoodstrategiesin responsetochangesinenvironmentalconditions.Amongstfishers,povertyratesarehigherthannational averages.47InCambodiaover1millionpeopledependonfisheriesatriskfrommainstreamdevelopment. Significantimprovementsinregionalcooperationandinstitutionalandregulatorycapacityareneededfor effectivemanagementofmainstreamprojectsandmitigationmeasures.Worldwidethereareanumberof benefit sharing mechanisms and mitigation measures for affected economic sectors which have proven successful under specific institutional contexts. The success of extensive mitigation measures needed to address risks and enhance opportunities, and the funding of such measures (e.g. national to local benefit sharing, and transboundary benefit sharing mechanisms) would be contingent on building substantially increasedinstitutional,administrativeandtechnicalcapacityinhostcountriesandregionally.Thiswouldneed tobedonebytheproposedconstructionandoperationsstartupdatesfortheprojects.48
8.2.5 CAMBODIA
Cambodiawouldreceiveincreasedforeignexchangeearningsfrompowerexports,increaseddirect investmentinthehydropowerfacilitiesthemselves,andincreasedgovernmentrevenues.Inthelongerterm, improvedpowersupplyandreducedpowerpricecouldbesignificant,howeveriffossilfuelexploitationin Cambodiawatersprogressesasexpected,mainstreamhydropowerwillnotbethecriticalcomponentofthe energysupplymixinCambodiaasitisoftenportrayed.Employmentopportunitiesintheconstruction, operationsandmaintenanceofthehydropowerfacilitieswillalsobeimportant. Cambodiawouldexperienceahighlysignificantreductionincapturefisherieswhichwouldhaveasignificant macroeconomicimpactandanadversepovertyreductionimpactespeciallyinvulnerableriparian populations.InthecaseoftheprojectssitedinCambodiadirectimpactsduetolossofland,assetsandother livelihoodsarelikelytobeimportant.ItisimportanttobearinmindthateveniftheCambodianprojectsdid
47
Asmostfishersarefromareaswherepovertyratestendtobeabovethenationalaveragewiththepossibleexceptionof LaoPDRwhereuplandareasaresomeofthepoorest 48 Benefitsharing;especiallyrevenuesharingisimportanttoensurethebenefitsaccruingattheregionalornationallevel aretransferredtolocallevel.
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notgoaheadfisheriesinCambodiawouldbeadverselyaffectedbyprojectsinLaoPDR/Thailandalbeittoa lesserextent. Cambodiaislikelytobearthebruntofthedeclineinfisheriesduetotheimportanceofthissectorandthe dependenceoflargesectionsofthepopulationonfisheriesfortheirlivelihoodsandasakeysourceof nutrition.Domestichydropowerprojectswillbringbenefitsbutisnotclearwhetherthefinancialand economicgainthesemayimplywilloffsetthelessobviouscostsbornebyfisheriesdependantpopulations.
8.2.6 LAOPDR
BenefitsofmainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentforLaoPDRincludeincreasedforeignexchangeearnings frompowerexports,increaseddirectinvestmentinthehydropowerfacilitiesthemselves,increased governmentrevenuesandthegenerationoftheemploymentopportunitiesintheconstruction,operations andmaintenanceofthehydropowerfacilities. Negativeimpactsincludelossofproductionland,housing,otherproductivefacilities;infrastructureand amenitiesarealllikelytobesignificantinbothupstreamanddownstreamareas.Inparticular: Lossofriverbankgardensandnegativeimpactsoninstreaminfrastructureduetochangingwaterlevels andincreasederosionwillbecoststhatarelikelytobebornebylocalpopulationsandlocalgovernments respectively. Lossofaquaticresourcesislikelytobesignificantforpopulationsalongtheriver,thisimpactislikelytobe lesswidespreadthaninCambodia.Nevertheless,lossofaquaticfloraandfauna,andfisheries productivityislikelytohavehighlysignificantiflocalisedpovertyandnutritionalimplicationssimilarto thoseoutlinedforCambodia. Indirectimpactsthoughexchangerateappreciationmayhavenegativeimplicationsforsomesectors suchasmanufacturingandagriculturealthoughthiswilldependuponthemacroeconomic managementpoliciesandcapacitiesofthegovernment. AkeyquestionforLaoPDRistheextenttowhichthegovernmentwillbeabletousenetrevenuesfrom hydropowertoaddresstheuncompensatedimpactsofthesedevelopments,andmorebroadly,toimprove productivecapacityandcompetitivenessinsectorswhichareimportantforpovertyreduction(i.e. manufacturingandagriculturalsectors).
8.2.7 THAILAND
BenefitsforThailandarenotsignificantintermsoftheoverallnationaleconomyorpowersector.While thereareeconomicbenefitsfromacheaperandmorestableelectricitypricefrommainstreamprojects,given thesizeofThaipowerdemanditwouldhavequiteasmallimpact.Thaiprojectinvestorsanddeveloperswill reapbenefitsaswilltheirsuppliers(mainlyconstructionfirms,engineeringfirmsandtheiremployees). Increasedprofitsforthesecompanieswillalsoleadtogreatertaxreturns.However,whenconsideredagainst thesizeanddiversityoftheThaieconomytheseimpactsarenotsignificant. Keyeconomiccostswillbebornebyriverdependantpopulationsespeciallyfishersandthoseengagedin ripariansubsistencelivelihoodstrategies.ThenortheastofThailandisthepoorestinthecountry,however comparedtotheotherLMBcountriesthepopulationintheThaiportionofthebasiniscomparativelywelloff. Thispopulationalsohasgreateropportunitiestodiversifylivelihoodsawayfromdependencyontheriver resourcebase.Therefore,whiletheinitialimpactontheThairiverbasinpopulationislikelytobesignificant, thispopulationislikelytobeabletoadaptmoreeffectivelythataffectedcommunitiesintheotherriparian countries.
8.2.8 VIETNAM
VietNamwillaccruefewerbenefitsfrommainstreamprojectdevelopmentthananyotherLMBcountry. Themostsignificantbenefitwouldbetheadditionalpowersupply.KeybenefitsforVietNamarelikelytobe ofamuchreducedscaletothoseforThailandasfewerprojectinputsarelikelytocomefromVietNam.Onthe otherhand,thebenefitsoftheadditionalpowersupplyarelikelytobemoresignificantreflectingsupply
62
shortfallsandtheoverallsizeofVietnamesepowerdemand.However,thesebeneficialimpactsarenot significanttothenationaleconomythatwouldlikelycontinueitsgrowthwithorwithouttheprojects. Mainstreamdevelopmentwillresultinchangesinseasonalflowrates,sedimentandnutrienttransportand riverecosystemsintheDelta.Reductioninsedimentloadsandassociatednutrientflowstothedeltaflood plainsandtothelargemarinefisheriesofftheVietnamesecostislikelytoimplysignificantcostsforboth agricultureandmarinecapturefisheries.Theimpactonfreshwatercapturefisheriesislikelyanadditional negativeimpactexperiencedbyriverdependentcommunitiesintheDeltawherecapturefisheriesarean importantlivelihoodcomponent.Thesignificantlossoffisherieswillhaveseriousimplicationsforfisheries dependentlivelihoodsandnutritionintheMekongdelta.Thepoorarelikelytobemostseverelyaffectedby thesefisheriesimpactsasunlikelandorotherprivatelyownedassetstheserepresentacommonresource accessibletothepoor. Table9:Economicsummaryofopportunities&risksforLMB
Cambodia Seriousadverseconsequencesforfisheriesandfishers,foodsecurityandpovertyreduction Significantbenefitsfrompowersectordevelopmentsecureandlessexpensivepowerforindustryandeconomic diversificationinthelongterm Fisherieslosseslikelytooutweighbenefitsofpowerproductionatleastintheshorttomediumterm OPPORTUNITIES Significantbenefitsfromlessexpensiveandsecure nationalpowersupply(replacingcostlydieselimports) Increasedcompetitivenessinmanufacturingsector Increasedgovernmentrevenuefrompowerexportand taxes Increaseinirrigableareaandagriculturalproductivityin someareas Longertermstrategicflexibilityinpowersupplyonce concessionperiodsend RISKS Lossoffisheriesresourcesandsignificantimpactonfoodsecurity Livelihoodsdisruptionofover1.6millionfishers LossinGDPthrougheconomiclossesinfisheriesandagriculture Ancillaryservicesandprocessingwouldsuffer LossofsedimentsandassociatednutrientstoTonleSapsystem, andassociatedadverseimpactsonprimaryproduction,flood forestandlocal/migratoryfish Lossofriverbankgardenslikelytobesignificantforriparian communitiesinsomeareas Lossoffertilityandagriculturalproductivityinfloodplains Lossoftourismassetsandrevenue Lackofnationalgridmayinhibitequitabledistributionofpower Lossofbiodiversity
LaoPDR Likelysignificantoveralleconomicbenefitthisislikelytobeunevenlydistributed Negativeimpactsonvulnerablecommunitieslikelytobesignificant GoLexpenditureofincreasednetrevenuescouldhelpamelioratenegativeimpacts OPPORTUNITIES SignificantbenefitsfromeconomicstimulusofFDIinLMB mainstreamhydropower Mayseenetrevenuebenefitsinconcessionperioddepending onthedesignoffinancingagreementandadequateoversight capacity Likelytoseesignificantbenefitsafter25yearconcessionsend andtheprojectstransferredtoGoL Benefitsofincreasedirrigableareaandagricultural productivityinsomeareas Improvementinnavigabilityformed/largevesselsupstream ofVientiane Longertermstrategicflexibilityinpowersupplyonce concessionperiodsend Thailand Overalleconomicbenefitalthoughinsignificantfornationaleconomy Economicriskstolivelihoodsforripariancommunitiesinthebasin OPPORTUNITIES Willreceivesignificantportionoftheeconomicbenefitsof powerfromimports Improvementinnavigabilityformed/largevesselsinupper RISKS Lossoffisheries Lossofagriculturalland Possiblelossofecotourismassets RISKS Possibilityofmacroeconomicimbalancesdevelopingdueto boominghydropowersector Lossoffisherieslikelytoaffectfoodsecurityandlivelihoods ofvulnerablepopulations LossofriverbankgardensparticularlysignificantinLaoPDR Lossofvaluabletourismassets Lossofbiodiversity
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reachesoftheLMB VietNam Likelyoveralleconomicloss LossesbornepredominantlybypoorercommunitiesintheMekongdelta OPPORTUNITIES Willreceivesignificantportionoftheeconomicbenefitsof improvedpowersupply(fromimportedpower) RISKS Significantlossinfreshwaterandmarinecapturefisheries andaquaculturelikelytoaffectlivelihoodsoffisherfolkin deltaespeciallypoorergroups Lossofsedimentsandassociatednutrientssignificant adverseeconomicaffectstodeltaicsedimentation,fisheries (Mekongandmarine)andagriculture
HYDROLOGY&SEDIMENTREGIME
TheMekongRiveris4,880kmlongwithatotalfallof4,583m,areaof795,000kmandaverageannualflowof 505km.OriginatingintheTibetanplateautheriverspansawiderangeofgeologic,climate,drainageand ecologicalzones.Theunifyinghydrologicalfeatureofthesystemistheriversfloodpulse,whichseesthe individualrainfallrunoffeventsthroughoutthecatchmentcoalesceintoastableandpredictablehydrograph withdistincthydrologicalseasons(Figure18).FortheLowerMekongBasin(LMB)itistheMekongfloodpulse, highnutrientloadingandbasinareawhichdrivestherivershighlevelsofaquaticandterrestrialbiodiversity andsystemproductivity. TheannualhydrographfortheMekongRiverhasthreeimportantfeatureswhicharecriticalinestablishingthe currenthydrologicalregime:(i)SWMonsoon:theresponseofthehydrographtotheSWmonsoonexhibitsa singleamplitudepeakcomplementedbyahighlypredictablephase;(ii)Floodarrival:theonsetoftheflood seasonoccurswithinaconsistentandsmalltimewindowwithastandarddeviationofapproximatelytwo weeks;(iii)Longlowflowperiod:thereisalongperiodoflowflowswhichfacilitatestheseasonaltransition fromaquatic(flooded)toterrestrial(drylands)environments.Thispredictabilityoftheriverhydrologyhas resultedinagoodunderstandingofthenaturalequilibriumthatismanifestthroughoutthe90yearsof sampling. Giventhestabilityofthenaturalhydrologicalregime,changeovershorttimescaleswillarisefromhuman activityinthebasin.Fromasurfacewaterpointofview,developmentinthebasincanaffecttheavailabilityof water,theconsumptionofwater,andthestorageofwateratseasonalandinterannualtimescales: 1. WaterAvailability:landclearinganddeforestationwhichhasresultedinanaverage1520% reductioninforestcoversincethe1960s.Thishaschangedlocalhydrologybuthasnothadsignificant impactonthebasinwidehydrologicalregime.Climatechangewillchangethetiminganddurationof precipitationeventsaffectingwateravailabilityatthebasinscale(c.f.climatechangesection). Waterconsumption:waterconsumptionintheLMBwillexperiencesignificantincreasesby2030: irrigatedareaswillincreasefrom6.6millionhato9.7millionha,whilewatersupplywillincreaseto from2,832mcm/yrto4,381mcm/yr. Waterstorage:UndertheBDP20Yscenariothenumberoftributarydamswillincreasefrom16to76 whichcorrespondstoa700%increaseinactivestoragecapacity(9.969.8km)oracapacitytostore 14%oftheMekongsmeanannualflowby2030.Bynumbermorethan80%oftheseprojectsarein LaoPDRandVietNam,however,the6projectsinChina(knownastheYunnancascade)collectively accountfor23.7kmofthisstorage(36%ortotalbasinstorage)with94%ofChinesestoragecoming fromjust2projects.Thisrepresentsthefirsttimethatadevelopmentsectorwillthreatento significantlyalterthehydrologicalregimeoftheentireMekongBasin.
2.
3.
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Figure17:AverageannualhydrographsoftheMekongRiver(BDPbaselinescenario)
40,000
35,000
KRATIE
30,000
PAKSE
25,000
20,000
TANCHAU
15,000
VIENTIANE
10,000
CHIANG SAEN
5,000
CHAUDOC
0 1Jan 1Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 1Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec
9.1
BASELINE
9.1.1 STREAMPOWER
Streampoweristherateatwhichenergyislostinmovingoverthebedoftheriver,andlosttoturbulentflow dissipation(550MW/km).ThislargevariationresultsfromthepulsingnatureoftheMekongRiverwhich experiencesdramaticchangesinflowbetweenwetanddryseasons.Streampowerisimportanttoalmostall aspectsoftheriver,includingmovementofcoarseandfinesizedsediment,thedevelopmentofdeeppoolsin thebedrock,channelgeomorphology,bankerosion,andformationofmidchannelislands. The20yearscenariotrendisforthepeakstreampowertoshiftdownwardsbybetween1030%,associated withsmoothingoftheannualhydrographbecauseofregulationbyproposeddams/reservoirswithlarge storage.The8damsproposedintheUMBarethedominantdriverbehindthereductioninstreampoweras theyregulatetheriverstoringwetseasonflowsforreleaseduringthedryseason.Consequently,thelargest reductioninmaximaoccursintheupperreachesoftheLMB(1030%inZone2)withthechangereducingin significancefurtherdownstream(510%inZone3,4,5and~5%inZone6). Thisreductionispredictedtoreducetheefficiencyofimportantgeomorphologicalprocessessuchas sedimenttransport,seasonalcyclesindeeppoolsandflushingofsedimentsoutintothemarine environments,butitwillnotpreventanyofthemfromoccurring.
9.1.2 WATERSURFACELEVELCHANGES
WatersurfacelevelsintheMekongmainstreamfluctuaterelativelyslowly,becauseofthelargesizeofthe river.Ratesofchangeofwatersurfaceelevationarehighestwiththearrivalofthefloodpulse,andare typicallyuptoabout+/0.16m/dayatLuangPrabang,+/0.11m/dayatPakseandabout0.09m/dayatStung Treng.RipariancommunitiesandusersoftheMekongRiverdependontheseasonalanddailyfluctuationin watersurfacelevelsforfishing,agricultureandtransport.Riverbankinhabitants,suchasfishermanlivingin floatinghomes,areusedtoriverlevelsthatfluctuateslowly,andtheytypicallyhavemanydaystoanticipate theonsetoffloods.
65
Thepresenttrend(with20yearscenario)isforareductioninthehydrographmaxima,andanincreasein thehydrographminima,associatedwithwaterstorageinlargecapacityreservoirs(Figure19).Extremitiesof waterlevelsarecriticalfortheaquaticecology.Theoverallhydrographwillbesmoother,especiallyinthe transitiontofloodseasonwhichwillseeareductionintheimportantfreshwaterspateswhichdrivemany ecosystemfunctions. Figure19:GenericcharacteristicsofthechangestotheMekonghydrographfromUMBandtributarystorage hydropower
HOURLYANDRAPIDFLUCTUATIONSINWATERLEVELS:HistoricallytheMekongRiverhasnot experiencedrapidfluctuationsinwaterlevelswithchangeslimitedtocentimetresperday.TheChinesedams inYunnanprovincehavealreadyinducednoticeablechangesinwaterlevelsatChiangSaenatadailyTime Step.Underthe20yearscenariothesechangeswillincreaseinmagnitudedependingonhowthetributary hydropowerdamsareoperated,andtheeffectivenessofaproposedreregulatingstructuredownstreamof theChinadams. FLOODTIMING:ThemajorimpactfromthecombinedeffectoftheYunnancascadeandthetributary developmentswillbethelossofthetransitionseasonsinZone2resultingfromamoreevenhydrograph. Thespatesandfirstflushesofthetransitiontofloodplayanimportantpartintriggeringkeyecosystem functionsoftheMekongsystemincludingspawningandmigrationofaquaticbiotaasdiscussedintheaquatic andfisheriesthemesandwillnolongeroccurunderthe2030foreseeablefuturescenario Onset:ThetimingofTransitionfromthedrytothefloodseasonwillbemostaffected,starting~7 8weeksearlieratChiangSaenand~1weekatKratie. Duration:UpstreamofPaksewillexperiencea24weekreductioninthedurationofthetransition seasonfromDrytoFlood,whichwilldropto~1weekintheMekongfloodplain.Thedurationofthe floodseasonisnotexpectedtobesignificantlyaffectedexceptattheuppermostreachesoftheLMB wheretheUMBflowsstilldominatewetseasonvolumes. Magnitude:dryseasonalflowswillincreaseby70%atthemostupstreamstationsdecreasingto10% attheMekongDelta.Conversely,wetseasonflowswilldecreasebyupto18%atupstreamstations decreasingto2%changeattheMekongDelta.
FLOODEDAREA:2030willseeatypicalreductionof~300,000hainfloodedarea,themajorityofwhichwill affectareaswithflooddepthsgreaterthan3m(Figure20).Thiswillaffectmorethan15%ofthefloodedarea inThailandandLao,andlessthan5%oftheareainCambodiaandVietNam.
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Fig20:ChangeinfloodedareafordifferentBDPscenarios:ThedominantinfluenceoftheLancangcascadeon changestofloodedareareflectsthatthemajorityofstoragecapacityavailablewithproposedhydropower developmentiscontainedwithinthese8UpperMekong dams '000 ha Flooded area assessments

Baseline Less than 0.5 m 0.5-1.0 m 1.0-3.0 m More than 3.0 m Totals Definite Future Scenario Less than 0.5 m 0.5-1.0 m 1.0-3.0 m More than 3.0 m Totals
Reductions from baseline Lao Thailand Cambodia Vietnam Total 5,000
18 25 82 270 395
Lao
17 24 89 232 363
Thailand
142 228 708 1,055 2,133

Cambodia
307 668 794 5 1,773

Vietnam
484 945 1,673 1,562 4,664

Total
Total flooded area by depth class

4,500 4,000 3,500
17 20 72 224 332
16% Lao
18 22 79 177 296
18% Thailand
175 205 673 977 2,029

5% Cambodia
374 712 666 3 1,756

1% Vietnam
584 959 1,490 1,380 4,413

5% Total
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Less than 0.5 m 0.5-1.0 m
20-year Foreseeable Future Less than 0.5 m 0.5-1.0 m 1.0-3.0 m More than 3.0 m Totals
Reductions from baseline Change from Definite Future
18 18 69 223 329
17% -1%
19 21 77 170 287
21% -3%
177 208 664 943 1,991

7% -2%
395 717 634 3 1,748

1% 0%
609 963 1,444 1,339 4,355

7% -1%
1.0-3.0 m
More than 3.0 m
BS
DF
20-yr
TONLESAP:By2030,UMBandtributaryhydropowerwillinducea500600km2(510%)reductioninarea oftheTonleSapLakesubjecttotheseasonalfloodpulseandoscillationbetweenterrestrialandaquatic environments(Figure21).Hydropowerregulationwillreducethehydraulicgradientdrivingflowinandoutof theTonleSapsystemandconsequentlyincreasethedryseasoninundatedarea(+5to+8%)whilealso reducingthewetseasoninundatedareaofthelake(3to5%). Fig21:ChangestotheaveragemonthlyareaoftheTonleSaplakeunder:(i)baseline,(ii)definitefuture,and (iii)20YBDPscenarios.
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FLOODPROTECTION:FloodprotectionbenefitsfromstoragereservoirsontheLMBtributariesandonthe LancangmainstreamarehighlydebatedandnotafindingconfirmedbytheSEA. Itisacommonlyheldviewthatlargestorageprojectcanprovidebenefitsoffloodprotectionbywithholding somefloodwaters.FortheMekongsystem,storagehydropowerwillnotprovidefloodprotectionfortwokey reasons: 1. TheAnnualfloodingcycleduetotheMekongfloodpulseisapositivefactoronwhichmuchofthe naturalsystem,fisheriesandagricultureproductivitydepends.Thereisnoneedtoprotect downstreamareasfromtheseregularseasonalevents.49 Extremefloodingisahazardfromwhichdownstreamareasandcommunitieswouldneedprotection. Yet,theexperienceintheregionshowsthatextremefloodeventsthreatenthesafetyoflarge reservoirsandoperatorsarelikelytopassthroughmostofthefloodwaters.Insomecasesdam managementhashaveaggravatedthesituationbyincreasingdownstreamflowstoemptystorage spaceaheadofanextremeevent.
2.
StorageprojectontheLancangRiverandtheLMBMekongtributarieswillregulateseasonalflows smoothingtheannualhydrographitremainstobeseenwhethertheseprojectscanbemanagedto providefloodprotectionduringextremeevents.Theircapacitytodosowouldrequireinstitutional arrangementsbetweenprojectoperatorsandgovernmentswhichallowforcoordinatedmultipleuse management.
9.1.3 FATE&TRANSPORTOFCOARSESIZEDSEDIMENT
Therewillbea7581%reductionintheLancangRiversedimentloadduetothe8UMBhydropowerprojects. TheaverageannualsedimentloadarrivingatChiangSaenwillreducefrom90Mt/yrto20Mt/yr.Forthe downstreamriver,areductioninthetransportofmediumsizedsedimentisfeltfirst,asthisisrapidlydepleted fromstorageonthebedandbanksoftheriver,whilethesedimentarynatureoftheriverbedcoarsensin response.ThereducedsedimentwillfirstmanifestaserosionproblemsnearChiangSaenandthenwork progressivelydownstream.Thisdownstreammigrationoftheerosionzonewillbeslowedbythepresenceof deeppoolsinZone2whichtypicallyrequire1wateryeartocross,suchthatitmaytakeintheorderof12 decadesbeforecoarsesizedsedimentisnolongersuppliedtothealluvialreachstarting40kmtothenorthof Vientiane(Figure22). Reducedsedimentloads(predominantlyduetotheUMBprojects)willincreasetheerosionofmediumsized sedimentscurrentlystoredwithintheriverbedandbanksofZone3and4.Thiswillfirstmanifestwithinthe vicinityofVientianeandtakeintheorderof1530yearstotranslatedowntoKratie,afterwhichtime problemsofbankinstabilitywillbegintobefeltbetweenKratieandPhnomPenh.Thereisnosignificant transportofcoarsesizedsedimentdownstreamofPhnomPenh. DEEPPOOLS:Thereareatleast335deeppoolsalongthethalwegoftheMekongmainstream,whichplayan importantroleinregulatingthedownstreamprogressionofsedimentandbuildinginchannelfeaturessuchas islandsandsandbarsandothercriticalhabitatsforaquaticproductivity. In the absence of LMB mainstream dams, the significant amount of sediments and good longitudinal connectivitystoredintheMekongchannelwillallowthedeeppoolstocontinuefunctioningasnormalin the short and medium term. Reduced sediment loads will only impact on the medium to longterm functioningoftheMekongdeeppools,duetothe~11,000milliontonnesofsedimentsstoredwithinMekong channel.
49
VietNamhasformallyrecognisedthebenefitsoftheannualfloodcyclebyincludingitslivingwithfloodsinitiativeinto formalwaterresourcesmasterplanningfortheMekongDelta.
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Fig 22: Future coarse & medium sediment dynamics without LMB mainstream: (top) currently there is a progressivemovementofcoarseandmediumsizedsedimentsdownstreamfromZone2toZone5.Zone3and 4 act as zones of transport with Zone 5 as the main site of deposition for coarse/medium sized sediments; (middle)80%ofsedimentsupplyfromMekongheadwaterswillbetrappedbehindhydropowerdevelopmentin ChinaincreasingerosionofchanneldepositsatthetopofZone3.Asmediumsizedbedmaterialisremobilised coarse sized sediments will remain armouring the channel. Further downstream the river will reinstate a dynamicequilibriumbetweenerosionanddepositionandthenewbalanceislikelytoseereduceddepositionin Zone5overthenext1520years;(bottom)availablesedimentsintheriveraredepletedoverthenext50years the supply of medium sized sediments to Zone 5 will decrease to zero. The effects of erosion will be felt throughoutZone3withchangestothelocationofthethalwegandanincreaseinbankinstability.Duringall timephases,therewillnotbeanysupplyofsandsizedsedimentstotheMekongDeltaasthestreamtransport powerwillnotbeabletomaintainsuspensionofthesefractionspastZone5. ZONE3 ZONE4 ZONE5 ZONE6
9.1.4 FATE&TRANSPORTOFFINESIZEDSEDIMENT
Thepresenttrendisforsignificantreductionsinthetransportoffinematerial,becauseoftheoperationof reservoirswithlargestorageinChinaandonmajortributaries.Inthe20Yforeseeablefuturescenario,the sedimentloadsinZone2willdropby~80%,whilefurtherdownstreamatKratietheloadisexpectedto halve.TheSEAestimatesasedimentloadof90Mt/yratChiangSaen,84Mt/yratVientianewiththeaddition of~25Mt/yrfromthe3Sbasinsand56Mt/yrfromtheremainingcatchmentsbetweentheNamHinbounand theSeDone,givinganaverageannualloadof165Mt/yratKratie.WithUMBandtributarieshydropower, theseloadswillbereducedtointheorderof20Mt/yr(ChiangSaenandVientiane),88Mt/yr(Kratie). The2030trendwithoutLMBmainstreamdamsisforthesupplyoffinesedimentsandnutrientstothe floodplainsanddeltaoftheMekongRiverwillbehalved(Table10).Thiswillimpactonsome18,000km2of Cambodianfloodplainand5,00010,000km2ofMekongDeltafloodplainaswellasreducethenutrientloadin theMekongmarinesedimentplume. Table10:IndicativechangestothefateofsedimentdownstreamofKratie:the20Yforeseeablefutureis
predictedtohalvethesedimentloadarrivingatKratieprimarilyduetotrappingbythedamsinZone1andinthe3Sbasins.
SITEOFDEPOSITION
AVERAGEANNUALDEPOSITIONVOLUME
69
BDPBaseline Sediment[Mt/yr] Kratie:annualsedimenttransportrate Cambodianfloodplain TonleSapfloodplain MekongDeltafloodplain Mekongrivermouth CaMauPeninsula Offshorecoastalshelf(<20kmfromthecoast) 165 25 9 26 5 <1 100
20YWithoutLMB mainstreamdams Sediment[Mt/yr] 88 13 5 14 3 0 53
9.2
IMPACTSASSESSMENT
TheLMBmainstreamprojectsareproposedatatimewhentheMekonghydrologicalregimeisundergoinga periodofintensivechangedrivenbyrapidhydropowerdevelopmentontheLMBtributariesandontheUMB mainstreaminYunnanProvinceofChina.TheLMBmainstreamprojectswillhaveadditionalwideeffectson thefuturemovementofwaterandsedimentthroughtheMekongbasinsystem. BoththeopportunitiesandriskspresentedbytheLMBmainstreamprojectsarisefromtheconcentrationof themajorityoftheriversenergydissipationonshortreachesoftheMekongRiverattheturbinesandgatesof theproposedmainstreamprojects.Theextractionofsome13,427MWofenergyfromtheMekongsystem forelectricitygenerationpresentsanunavoidabletradeofffordecisionmakersasthisenergywillnolonger beavailabletomaintainthecomplexhydroecologicalandgeomorphologicdynamicsthatsustaintherivers ecosystems(Table11). Table11:Percentageofwetseasonstreampoweruseddirectlyinelectricityproduction50
LMBmainstream damsite PakBeng LuangPrabang Xayaburi PakLay Sanakham Pakchom BanKoum LatSua DonSahong StungTreng Sambor Reservoir Length(km) 180 150 102 110 90 85 155 10 5 45 90 Streampowerusedforelectricity productionduringanaveragehigh flowseason 57% 75% 79% 74% 47% 72% 25% ~100% ~100% 40% 53%
9.2.1 STREAMPOWER
StreampowerlinkskeyhydraulicfeaturesoftheMekongsystem,including:powerproduction,energy dissipation,geomorphology,flowturbulenceandsedimenttransportandisameasureoftheenergyavailable inthesystemtofacilitatetheseprocesses. WiththeLMBmainstreamprojects,55%ofthetotallengthofmainstreambetweenChiangSaen&Kratie willbeconvertedtoreservoirtransformingtheriverfromaliverivertoaseriesofimpoundmentswithslow
50
Figuresarebasedonaturbineefficiencyofe=85%.DonSahongestimatesarebasedonthemeanannualdischarge estimatedfortheHouSahongchanneloftheMekongduringthewetseason
70
watermovementinterspersedbydownstreamstretcheswithrapidlychangingflowinresponsetodam operations(Figure23).Theeffectofthisonstreampoweristoconcentratetherelativelyuniformdissipation ofenergyalongtheentirelengthoftheriver(550MW/km)tolargeexpressionsofenergyinsmallreaches centredonthedamwall(upto2,000MW)withnodissipationalongthehundredsofkilometresofreservoir.51 Thisconcentrationofenergypresentssignificantbenefitforelectricityproduction,howeveritwillalso irreversiblyalterotherimportantnaturalprocesses,including:(i)majorchangestosedimenttransportofall sizes,(ii)functioningofdeeppools,(iii)majorchangesintransportoforganicandwoodydebris,(iv)significant andirreversiblechangesinfisheriesmigrationandpassage,(v)additionally,streampowerchangeswillhave linkswithriskfactorsforanthropogenicusesoftheriver,suchasdetrimentstonavigationanddetrimentsto fishingopportunities. Duringthedrylowflowseason,closeto100%ofstreampowerwillbeextractedforelectricitygeneration. Duringthewethighflowseason:LatSua,DonSahongandthe6damswithintheupperclusterwillinduce themostsignificantreductioninavailablestreampower(75100%)(Figure23).AtSanakham,BanKoum, StungTrengandSambor4050%ofstreampowerwillremainfornaturalprocesses. Figure23:Changestostreampoweratthemainstreamdamsites:thedevelopmentofhydropowerontheMekong
mainstream will concentrate energy dissipation at the dam sites as the projects generate electricity. This will result in a decreaseinenergydissipatedalongthechannelbedofthereservoirsandreachessufficientlyfardownstreamofthedam wall.
Figure24:TheLMBmainstreamreservoirs:55%oftheMekongRiver(ChiangSaentoKratie)willbeconverted intoreservoirs
51
Underanaturalhydrologicalregimetherearesomesiteswhereenergydissipationisconcentrated,forexampleKhone Falls,howevertheprocessisoverwhelminglymoreuniformthanwiththeLMBmainstreamprojects
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9.2.2 RETENTIONTIMES&STORAGECAPACITY
Hydropowerprojectsgenerateelectricitybyutilisingthestreampoweravailablewithinariversystemand convertingthekineticenergyofflowintoelectricalenergy.Forriverswithlargeflows,energycanbe extractedfromtheflowitself,oranimpoundmentcanbebuilttostorepotentialenergyandcontrol generationthroughdamreleaseleadingtotwodistincttypesofhydropower:storageandrunofriverprojects. LargestoragevolumescomparedtotheMeanAnnualFlow(MAF)aretypicalofconventionalstorage hydropower(e.g.NamTheun2),LMBmainstreamdamshavethecapacitytostorelessthan3%oftheMAF thispercentageincreasessignificantlyduringthedryseasonanddecreasesduringthewetseason(Table11).
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Table11:StoragecapacityofselectedMekongBasinhydropower
MAF Hydropowerproject NamTheun2 NamNgum Nuozhadu Xiaowan Sanakham Manwan Sambor LuangPrabang StungTreng Xayaburi PakLay PakBeng BanKoum PakChom LatSua DonSahong Thakho km3/yr 15.4 20.7 55.19 38.47 133.8 38.79 405.8 100 432.5 124.8 130.7 96.5 294.6 141.6 294.6 325.1 Storage Volume km3 11 10.4 22.4 14.56 3.78 0.9 3.49 0.80 1.55 0.37 0.39 0.28 0.63 0.10 0.12 0.03 Storage/MAF 71.43% 50.24% 40.59% 37.85% 2.83% 2.32% 0.86% 0.80% 0.36% 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.22% 0.07% 0.04% 0.01%
Basedontheirstoragecapacity,someLMBmainstreamdamshavethecapacitytoretainflowsfor23 weeksduringanaveragedryseasonand12weeksduringanaveragewetseason(Figure25).Preliminary assessmentofSanakhamrevealsthatduringadryyear(e.g.the1993dryseason),theretentiontimecould increasetoonemonth.Dependingonoperationalstrategiesthecascadeof11damscouldcumulatively inducelongerdelaysinthearrivalofflowstotheCambodiananddeltaicfloodplains.Thiswouldneeddetailed modellingbeforepredictionscouldbemade. Figure25:LMBmainstreamdamretentiontimes(days):theproposedLMBmainstreamprojectsareclosertorun

ofriver projects than conventional storage dams with a maximum average potential retention time in the order of 2 3weeksduringthedryseason,and12weeksduringthewetseason.
9.2.3 HYDROECOLOGICALSEASONS
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TheMekongRiverhasastrongfloodpulsecharacterisedby4distinctseasonsandcorrespondingfluctuations inthewaterlevels.LMBtributaryandUMBChinesehydropowerwillalterthetiminganddurationofthese seasons. WithoutLMBmainstreamhydropower,theimportanthydroecologicalseasonsoftheMekongRiverwill alreadyexperiencesignificantstresses,shorteningthelengthofthebiologicallyimportanttransitionseasons. WhencombinedwiththeLMBmainstreamprojectsupperreachesoftheLMBwillnolongerexperiencethe ecologically important transition seasons (Figure 26). All reaches between Chiang Saen and Kratie will experience a reduction in the duration of transition seasons which play an important role in triggering biologicalprocesseswithinriverineandfloodplainhabitats. Figure26:ChangestotheMekonghydroecological
VIENTIANE
BDP20YwithMD BDP20Yw/oMD BDPBaselineScenario Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
VIENTIANE
Season TransitionA Floodseason TransitionB+Dryseaso
Duration(days)
BS 42 142 181 20Y w/o MD 5 135 225 20Yw MD 1 130 234
KRATIE
Season TransitionA Floodseason TransitionB+Dry
Duration(days)
BS 31 148 186 20Y w/o MD 19 144 202 20Yw MD 24 138 203
KRATIE
BDP20YwithMD BDP20Yw/oMD BDPBaselineScenario
seasons
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.2.4 WATERSURFACELEVELCHANGES
ChangesinwaterlevelsfromtheLMBmainstreamprojectswilladverselyaffectriverbankgardeningalongthe MekongRiverandinmajorandminortributariesnearthemainstream,thehabitabilityoffloatinghomesthat aredownstreamofthedams,fishhabitat,andtheviabilityofwaterintakes/pumpstationsadjacenttothe riverandtributarymouths. IfallLMBmainstreamprojectsweretogoahead,theycouldinducechangesto:(i)thefloodedareasof Cambodiaandthedelta,(ii)extentofsalineintrusion,and(iii)floodingintheTonleSapsystemdepending onhowthe12projectsareoperatedandthelevelofcoordinationbetweenprojects.Eachprojectalone wouldnotinducesignificantchangestothesecomponentsoftheMekongsystem. For7oftheproposedprojects,thedamswillbesufficientlyhighthatwaterlevelsinthereservoirsbehind the dams will be above thehighest ever recorded river elevations for significant distancesupstream. This will have significant implications for riparian communities and riparian use of the river. Areas that were previouslyfloodplainsareasattributaryconfluences,channelbanksandinchannelislandswillbedrownedby the proposed reservoirs. More than 510% of the river valley between Chiang Saen and Sambor will be affectedbyreceivingyearroundinundationatlevelsneverexperiencedinthehistoryofdatacollectionforthe river.Thiswillhavesignificantimpactson: Irrigation infrastructure: almost half of all irrigation pump stations existing and planned for the Mekong mainstream (309 units) will be affected by increased water levels. This will directly affect ~32,000haofplannedandexistingagriculturallandwithmainstreamirrigationschemes: o WithinReservoirs:For~15%ofallpumpstationsthereisthepossibilityofreducedpumping heads from elevated water levels, however, these pump stations will need rebuilding,
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relocation and resizing to allow for operation at these new water levels and to turn the reducedpumpingheadintoaneconomicadvantage. o Downstreamofreservoirs:newflowregimeimposedbythemainstreamprojectswillinduce migrationoftheriverthalwegandwouldrequirepumprelocation o Operations:Potentialfordailyfluctuationintheorderofmeterswhichwouldincreasethe complexityofpumpoperationsandtheneedformoresophisticatedcontrols River bank agriculture: Loss of bank side growing areas from permanent inundation, with partial losses of additional bank side growing areas for several hundred km of the mainstream river, associatedwithhighwaterlevels(seeterrestrialpaper). Floodplains:themajorityoffloodplainshydrologicallyconnectedtothemainstreaminZone2and3 willbepermanentlylostaswillseasonalinchannelfeatures(island,siltterraces,sandbars) Navigation: medium and large sized river transport will benefit from the improved channel navigabilityimprovingconditionsforrivercruiseoperationsandthecompetitivenessoffreight/large scale cargo transport upstream of Vientiane. Small scale and subsistence river transport will also benefitfromsafernavigationconditionsduetotheelevatedwatercolumn.
9.2.5 OPERATIONALSTRATEGYPEAKINGVSCONTINUOUS
The changes in water levels could be greatly exacerbated by the operational strategy of projects. Peaking operation maximising turbine discharge when the buying price for electricity peaks at a daily timestep couldgreatlyincreasetherateoffluctuationofwaterlevelsfromahistoricallyseasonalphenomenatoadaily orevenhourlyphenomena. Thereisthepotentialforhourlyspikesinwaterlevelofupto36mattownsandvillageslocated4050km downstream(Figure27).Underunplannedandemergencyreleasesthesepeakingeventscouldbelargerand couldtranslatethisdistancedownstreamin12hoursgivinglittletimefornotification. Figure27:PotentialpeakingaffectedpopulationsdownstreamofLMBmainstreamdams:theprojectswiththe
greatest peaking potential have significant populations living immediately downstream who would be at risk of unprecedenteddailywaterlevelfluctuationsifpeakingoperationswereutilised
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430,000peoplelivewithin100kmdownstreamoftheLMBmainstreamprojectswiththehighestpeaking potential(Sanakham,LuangPrabang,Sambor,StungTreng,BanKoum,PakLayandXayaburi)andwouldbe exposedtorapidfluctuationsinwaterlevelsifpeakingoperationisused(Figure28). Figure 28: Implications of peaking operation: peaking operations could allow project operators to maximise profit
potential by providing electricity when it is most valuable (peak load times) because of the speed at which hydroelectric turbinescanbebroughtonlineandoffline.However,thiswouldgreatlyexacerbatethedownstreamchangeinwaterlevels, with
ReregulatingreservoirsfortheLMBmainstreamprojectsareunlikelytobefeasibleduetothesizeof reservoirrequiredtodampenrapidfluctuationsinwaterlevels.Preliminaryanalysisundertakenbytheteam suggestthatreregulatingreservoirswouldneedtobeatleastintheorderof50km(intheorderof50%ofthe lengthoftheproposedmainstreamreservoirs)iftheyaretoevenoutsmalltimescalefluctuationsinwater levels.ThisisnotafeasibleoptionfortheMekonggiventheproximityoftheprojectstopopulatedareasand thenumberofreregulatingreservoirswhichwouldberequired.
9.2.6 COARSESIZEDSEDIMENT
Currently,therearenoanthropogenicobstaclestobedloadtransportintheLMBmainstream,suchthat coarsesizedsediment(coarsesand,gravel,cobbles)isconveyeddownstreamviasaltationbyadistanceofa fewtensofmeters(throughdeeppools)toafewkilometres.TheYunnancascadeofexistingandproposed hydropowerprojectswillreducethebedloadarrivingintheLMB.Thiswillresultinacoarseningofthebed loadastheriverattemptstocompensatebydepletingstorageofmediumsizedparticlesfromthebedand banks. TheadditionoftheLMBmainstreamprojectswill: Significantlyreducestreampowerandwatervelocityresultinginenhancedsedimentationandthe formationoflargedeltaictypedepositsattheheadofeachofthereservoirs.Thiswillseesediment accumulateinsectionsoftheriverwhereithasneveraccumulatedinthepast; Increasetherateofsedimentationinareasofthereservoirnotinfluencedbyscourflowfromthe spillwayandsedimentgatesdependentonthesequencingofconstruction;52 Changethemechanicsofsedimenttransport,byreducingthevelocityofmeanannualfloodflow throughthereservoirsothatmediumsizedparticleswhichmovedinsuspensionwillnowmoveonly
52
Upstreamscour/sedimentremovalassociatedwithopeninggatescanonlyinducelocalisedscouraffectsandwilllikely affectsedimentationnearthedamwallnotalongthe100kmofreservoir.
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partiallyinsuspensionandcoarsesizedparticleswhichhadmovedpartiallyinsuspensionand partiallyasbedloadwillnowmoveasbedloadornotatallcausinggreaterretentionratesinthe impoundmentofbothmediumandcoarsesediment; IncreasedowncuttingandchannelbedandbankerosioninalluvialreachesoftheMekong(Zone 3);projectsproposedforZone2willfurtherreducethesupplyofbedloadtothealluvialreach betweenVientianetoPakse,whichwillinduceremobilisationofthechannelandbedsediments withinthereach,increasinglossofriparianvegetation&agriculturalareas(islandsandriverbanks)as wellasalteringthecourseoftheriverthalweg. AcceleratetheescalationoferosionproblemsandchannelinstabilityfeltatVientianeandPhnom Penh.TherearesubstantialreservesofcoarseandmediumsedimentsstoredinchannelinZone3 (~14,000mcm)whichwoulddelaythearrivaloferosionproblemsexpectedfromtheChinesedams atPhnomPenhby12decades,thelowerandmiddleclusterofdamswouldreducethisbufferperiod totheorderofafewwateryears.Similarlyintheorderof3002,000mcmofcoarseandmedium sandsarestoredinchannelinZone2,mainstreamprojectsintheupperclusterwouldpreventthe remobilisationofthesesedimentsandhenceeliminateanybufferingoftheeffectsatVientianeof reducedsedimentloadsarrivingfromChina. Theimplicationsofcoarseandmediumsizedsedimenttransportwilldifferbetweenupstreamand downstreamreachesofproposedLMBmainstreamdams: Upstreamofdams:Ingeneral,coarsesizedsedimentisthefirstfractionsizetodeposit,thereforethe mostupstreamdaminacascadeorthefirstdambuiltwillinduceproportionatelylarger accumulationofcoarsesizedmaterialsthandamsdownstreaminthecascade.Ifallthedamswere built,thiswouldputPakBeng,BanKoum,DonSahongandStungTrengashavingthemostimpactof coarsesedimenttransport,thoughitdependsheavilyonthesequencing. Downstreamofthedams,coarsesizedsedimentislikelytobethelastsedimentsizetobe transportedandtheerosionofsmallersizeswillresultinthearmouringofthedownstreamriver reach.
9.2.7 FINESIZEDSEDIMENT
Theloadofsuspendedsedimentisestimatedat160165milliontonnes/y.Upto50%ofthiswillberemoved bystorageprojectsinChinaandthe3Sregion. WiththeLMBmainstreamdamsthesedimentloadwouldbehalvedagain,suchthattheloadatKratie wouldbe~25%ofthecurrentload(~42milliontonnes/year)(Figure29,31).Thisisconsideredaconservative estimateinlightoftheuncertaintysurrounding:(i)understandingoffinessedimenttransport,and(ii) understandingofLMBmainstreamdamstrappingefficienciesandinreservoirsedimentdynamics. Trappingefficienciesofmainstreamprojectsarehighlydependentonparticlesizestransportedbytheriver, andareestimatedtobeintherange0.1%to50%. Thegreatestreductioninsedimentloadoccurswithinthefirst1020TEpercentagepoints,afterwhich furtherreductionsbegintoplateausuchthatthereareonlyminorreductionsinsedimentloadwhentrapping efficienciessurpass40%.Consequently,evenmodesttrappingefficienciesfromtheLMBmainstreamprojects willcontributesignificantlytothereducedsedimentloadexpectedby2030. FinesizedsedimentsplayafundamentalroleintheMekongfloodplainsanddelta,intheCambodian floodplainthegradientflattensandtheloadisprimarilyclaysiltandfinesand,withmaximumtransportof suspendedloadfromStungTrengtoKampongCham.Netdepositionoffinesizedsedimentsisconcentratedin theCambodiananddeltaicfloodplainsaswellastherivermouth.
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Figure29:CumulativesedimenttrappingefficienciesofMekongBasinhydropower.Upto50%oftheMekong sediment load will be removed by tributary and UMB hydropower. Even small LMB mainstream trapping efficiencies of 510% will induce a total reduction in Mekong sediments of 7078%. Higher LMB mainstream trappingefficienciesof2040%wouldresultinatotalreductioninMekongsedimentsintheorderof8590%.
TheadditionoftheLMBmainstreamprojectswill:
Reduce velocities in the reservoir and induce some deposition of fines in backwater areas of the reservoirs.Thistrappingoffineswillprimarilybeanimpactduringthefirstdecadeofoperationofthe proposedmainstreamdams,asitislikelythatsiltationwillreachalongtermequilibriumfairlyquickly (onetotwodecades)becausethereservoirsarerelativelysmall. Decreasetheconcentrationofsuspendedsedimentsinthechanneldownstreamofreservoirs; Thisreducedsuspendedloadwillhavesignificantimplicationsforthetransportofnutrientsandstabilityof theMekongDelta(Table13). Table 13: Approximate annual average estimates of Mekong sediment and nutrients deposition: Under
baselineconditions~20%ofthesedimentloadatKratiedepositsontheCambodianfloodplain(includingTonleSap);16%in theMekongDeltafloodplain,3%attherivermouthand~60%istransportedintothemarineenvironmentwhereitdeposits predominantlywithin20kmfromthecoastline.ThereductioninsedimentloadatKratiewillseeaproportionatereduction inthevolumeofdepositionateachsitedownstream
ANNUALDEPOSITIONVOLUME WithLMBmainstream(assumenet WithoutLMBmainstream maximaltrappingefficiencyofLMB dams cascadeof10%)TE(total)=75% Sediment [Mt/yr] Nutrient(Total P)[t/yr] Sediment [Mt/yr] Nutrient(TotalP) [t/yr]
SITEOFDEPOSITION
BDPBaseline Nutrient Sediment (TotalP) [Mt/yr] [t/yr]
Kratie:annualsediment transportrate Cambodianfloodplain TonleSapfloodplain MekongDeltafloodplain Mekongrivermouth CaMauPeninsula Offshorecoastalshelf(<20km fromthecoast)
165 25 9 26 5 <1 100
26,376 3,958 1,439 4,157 800 32 15,990
88 13 5 14 3 <<1 53
14,061 2,111 768 2,210 427 14 8,533
41 6 2 7 1 ~0 25
6,594 989 360 1,039 200 8 3,998
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9.2.8 NUTRIENTS
Currently,some26,400tonnes/yrofnutrientsaresuppliedtotheMekongfloodplainsanddeltabythefine sizedsuspendedsedimentload. Inthe2030withLMBmainstreamscenario,thisloadwillbereducedby75%(25%duetomainstreamdams) or to ~6,600 tonnes/yr. The reduced sediment load will have critical impacts on the natural and human systemswhichrelyonthesenutrients,includingprimaryproduction,floodedforests,floodplainfisheriesand agriculture,specifically: Cambodianfloodplain:~18,000km2oftheCambodianFloodplainisnaturallyfertilisedbynutrients attachedtosuspendedsediments,themainstreamdamswillreduceloadingfrom4,000tonnes/yrto lessthan1,000tonnes/yr; Mekong Delta floodplain: Aconservative estimate suggests that at least 5,000 km2 of the Mekong deltafreshwaterareareliesonoverbanksiltationforenrichingagriculturallandadjacenttothedelta channelsandprimarycanalnetwork,themainstreamdamswillreduceloadingfrom4,000tonnes/yr to1,000tonnes/yr; TonleSapproductivity:thereisacorrelationbetweensedimentloadandaquaticproductivityinthe CambodianfloodplainandtheTonleSapsystem(Figure30).Atthemomentsedimentinputtoand output from the lake is balanced and the lake is biologically very productive. If mainstream dams halve nutrient input on topof the reductions expected by tributary and Chinese hydropower (from ~5,500 tonnes to 2,250 tonnes to 1,200 tonnes peryear) an impact on primary production is to be expected.ThiswillinturnhaveanimpactonTonleSapfishresources(60%ofCambodiasyield),in addition to the loss of at least 309,000 ha of floodplains forecasted by 2030 if all dams are constructed; Marine fishery: The productivity of the Mekong delta coastal fishery is due to the shallow coastal shelf, preponderance of estuarine environments and the deposition of approximately 60% of the Mekong sediment load observed at Kratie. Coastal fishery zones will experience reduced primary production with implications for the whole marine fisheries and industries that rely on these fisheries; Figure30:CorrelationbetweenfishbiomassandrateofsedimentationfortheTonleSapsystem:usinglinear regressionthereisa95%correlationbetweenfishbiomassandsedimentationindicatingastrongcorrelation betweenproductivityoftheTonleSapanditssediment
400
CPUE (tonnes/dai/season)
300
200
100
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000
load.
Sedimentation rate (tonnes/year)
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9.2.9 DELTASTABILITY
ThereducedsuspendedloadwillreducetheMekongmarinesedimentplumeaffecting: Greaterinstabilityanderosionofchannelsinthedeltaincludinginchannelislands,whichareheavily populatedandamongstthemostfertilezonesofthedelta, Knockoneffectsforirrigationworksandinlandwaterwaytransportandtherequirementofmore frequentmaintenanceschedules Increasedcoastalerosionandreduceddeltabuildingalongtheeasternshorelineofthedeltawith knockoneffectsonaquatichabitatsandcoastalshrimpfarming Figure31:Approximateaverageannualsuspendedsedimenttransportbalance: Underbaselineconditionsan
averageof165Mt/yrarrivesatKratieandisthendepositeddownstreamthroughouttheMekongfloodplains,thechannel andontheMekongmarineshelf.90Mt/yroriginatesfromupstreamofChiang Saenand~25Mt/yrfromthe 3Sregions (totalsinwhitesquares).By2030withouttheLMBmainstreamtheloadatChiangSaenandKratiewilldropto20Mt/yrand 88Mt/yrrespectively(lightbluesquares).ThisrepresentsahalvingofthesedimentloadwithoutLMBmainstreamprojects. WiththeLMBmainstreamprojectsthiswillhalveagainto~42Mt/yr.TheZone2projectswilltrap~50%oftheloadarriving fromChina, the Zone3projects willtrap importantcontributionsfromtheleftbanktributariesinLao PDR, whileZone4 projectswillalsotrapsedimentsarrivingfromthe3Sbasins.
ChiangSaen
90 20 20
NongKhai
84 20 10
56
LEGEND
Approx.averageannualsedimenttransport
84 20 10 BDPBaselineatstation(Mt/y) BDP20YwithoutLMBmainstreamhydropower (Mt/y)
25
9
BDP20YwithLMBmainstreamhydropower(Mt/y) Supplyofsedimentfromsubcatchment Depositionofsediment
25
Kratie
165 88 42
26
25 Quantityofsedimentsupplied/deposited(Mt/y) undernaturalconditions
5 <1
ProposedLMBmainstreamhydropowerproject
100
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10 TERRESTRIALSYSTEMS
10.1 BASELINE 10.1.1 LANDUSE
ThereisawidevarietyofterrestriallandusealongtheMekongRiverwithsurroundingareasbecoming increasinglydegradedandclearedforcultivation.TheterrestrialecosystemssurroundingtheMekongstart fromextensiveforestcoverinZones1and2(8090%),whichdecreasesmarkedlyastheriverpassesthrough zones3,4,5and6;agriculturallandbecomesprogressivelyhigherpercentageoflanduse,especiallyinNE Thailand,southernLaoPDR,andbelowKratieinZone5andintheDelta(4167%intheseareas)(Figure31). Governmentpoliciestendtobetowardsintensificationofagriculture,withincreasedirrigationinLaoPDR andCambodia.InZone2livelihoodsarealmostentirelydependentonagriculture.InNEThailandwaterfor furtherirrigationisalimitingfactor,andavailabilityofsuitablelandisalimitingfactorintheVietNamDelta. Wetlandsbecomeanincreasingproportionofriparianhabitatdownstreamreaching10%inZone6(Figure31).
10.1.2 TERRESTRIALBIODIVERSITY
Almost50%oftheMekongripariancorridorisconsideredasKeyBiodiversityAreas(KBAs)ofglobal significancebutpoormanagementandlackofprotectedareazoningwillseethecontinueddegradationof thecorridorovernext20years(Table14).Morethan1,005kmof2040kmoftheLowerMekong(Chiang Saentothesea)areidentifiedasKeyBiodiversityAreas,butonlyabout100kmoftheriveractuallylieswithin anationallyprotectedarea. Table14:LengthsoftheMekongmainstreamconsideredasKeyBiodiversityAreaandprotected
Zone 1 2 3 4 5a 5b 6 Total Lengthofriverchannel km 220 795 715 310 335 225 2600 LengthofriverconsideredasKBA km 100+ 495+ 100 310 0 WholeofTonleSap Variouswetlandsinfloodplain 1005+ Lengthprotected km 0 0 100 0 0 14,812km2 27,425ha 100+
WithouttheLMBmainstreamdams,themainthreatstoterrestrialbiodiversity,includeexpansionof agriculture,landconcessions(Cambodia)andlossoffloodplainhabitatasahydrologicalconsequenceof regulationbyUMBandtributaryhydropower.500600km2offloodedforestintheTonleSapsystemwillbe lostduetotheregulatingeffectsofhydropowerontheseasonalflowextrema.
10.1.3 AGRICULTURE
By2030,agriculturallandunderirrigationwillincreaseby3.1millionhatoatotalof9.7millionha,a significantproportionofthislieswithintheMekongripariancorridor(Table15).Thisincreaseisprimarily duetogovernmentpoliciesinLaoPDRandCambodiafortheintensificationofagricultureandirrigation. Therearesomecriticallimitingfactorshinderingtheexpansionofagriculture: Thailand:theyearroundavailabilityofwateristhesinglemostimportantfactorlimitingincreased agriculturalproductivityinNEThailand.Sincethe1960sThailandhasexploredthefeasibilityof megairrigationprojectstakingMekongwatersintoagriculturallandsofNEThailand,however,the flattopographymeansthattherearefewnewsitesforlargereservoirstorageintheChiMun catchmentwhichlimitsthepotentialformegairrigation.
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VietNam:thelimitingfactorinVietNamisland;withmorethan65%ofthelandareaalready convertedtoagriculturaluse,thereislittleopportunityforexpansion.Mostofthefreshwater floodplainhasalreadybeenconvertedtomultiplecroppingandsalineintrusionlimitsthefurther expansionofthistechnique. Cambodia&LaoPDR:thedominantlimitingfactoristhelackofadequateinfrastructureand resourcestoshiftproductionfromrainfedfarmingtoirrigatedmethods. Riverbankgardensareanimportantcontributortothelivelihoodsofripariancommunities,and althoughthesehavenotbeensystematicallystudied,theircontributionineachzoneisestimatedto be1060millionUSperyear.
Table15:Estimatesofsizeandvalueofpaddyfieldwithin50kmoftheMekongRiver
Zone 1 Chinato Chiang Saen 500.22 1.00 50,022 10.00 2 Chiang Saento Vientiane 3,655.09 2.00 731,019 146.20 3 Vientiane toPakse 4 Pakse to Kratie 1,625.6 4 2.60 422,66 6 84.53 5 Kratieto PhnomPenh andTonleSap 13,910.25 2.60 3,616,666 723.33 6 Phnom Penhto theSea 19,810.05 5.00 9,905,024 1,981.00
Unit sq.km t/ha/yr t/yr USD million
Paddyfieldareain50km corridorofriver Yield Annualproduction

Value@0.2USD/kg
22,916.31 3.50 8,020,710 1,604.14
Figure32:currentriparianlanduseoftheMekongRiver:thereisadecreaseinforestcoverandanincreasein cultivatedlandbetweenYunnanProvinceandthesea,whichiscloselycorrelatedtoterrainandpopulation density.WetlandsalsobecomeanimportantterrestrialhabitatastheRiverflattensintothefloodplainsof southernLaoPDR(Siphandone),CambodiaandtheMekongdelta
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10.2 IMPACTSASSESSMENT
10oftheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldhaveasignificantlocalimpactontheterrestrialbiodiversityand agriculturalproductivityinthe~135,000hainundatedbythe10projectsandlandtakenfortransmission linesandaccessroads.53Theseimpactsmanifestprimarilythroughthepermanentinundationofterrestrial featuresandchangesinwateravailability. Figure33:LMBmainstreamreservoirareasinsideandoutsidetheMekongchannel
Approximately75%ofreservoirarea(100,000ha)iscontainedwithintheMekongriverchannel.Don Sahong,PakLayandLuangPrabanghavelessthan40%ofthereservoircontainedwithinthechannel,while Xayaburi,BanKoumandPakChomhavemorethan85%containedwithinthechannel(Figure32). 25,000haofforestlandwouldbeinundated,togetherwiththe8,000haofcultivatedland.Muchofthe forestsadjacenttotheMekongarealreadyratherdegraded,althoughsomematureriverbankvegetation wouldbelost.Floodedforestsandshrublandsintheriverchannel,especiallyinthereservoirsofPakChom, BanKoumandthetwoCambodiandamswouldbelost.ThetwoCambodiandamsdifferinthattheywould floodlargerareas,includingforestandcultivatedlandSamboralonewouldfloodmorethan16,000haof terrestriallands(almost50%ofthetotal). ThereservoirswouldchangethelandscapeoftheMekongrivervalley,permanentlymaintainingthewater levelsabovethecurrenthighflowlevelswithlittleseasonalchange.Insomereachesoftheriver(510%) immediatelyupstreamofthedamwallswaterlevelswouldbeaboveanyinrecordedhistoryandabovethe levelsassociatedwiththe1in1,000yearfloodevent.1,370km2ofriverineterrestriallandswouldbe permanentlyinundatedbytheelevatedwaterlevelsofthe11LMBmainstreamreservoirs.
53
ThisdoesnotincludeStungTrengforwhichnoinformationwasavailable;nordoesitincludeThakhowhichdoesnot inundatelandasitisadiversionproject.
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Thelargestimpactontheriverineterrestrialsystemwouldaffectwetlands.Almost40%oftheMekong Riverswetlandsliewithinreachesoftheriverwhereprojectsarelocated17%ofwhichwouldbe permanentlyinundatedbytheLMBmainstreamprojects(Table16). Table16:Comparisonoflandusein50kmcorridoralongeachbankofLowerMekongwithareasinundated bymainstreamdams

Landusetype %oftotal existingland usetype withinZ2Z454 Area(km2) % Area(km2) % Totalopenland Totalwetlands Builtuparea TOTAL Area(km2) % Area(km2) % Area(km2) % Area(km2) % 35,793 47.4% 100,486 86.1% 4,288 21.3% 4,355 38.9% 714 13.2% 145,636 63.6% %Z2Z4landuse typeinundatedby LMBMD 63.5 0.2% 543.50 0.5% 28.40 0.7% 734.50 16.9% 1.76 0.2% 1,369.90 0.9%
Totalcultivated land Totalforestcover
Some150,000haofriverbankgardens,agriculturallandsandirrigationschemeswouldbedirectlyaffected bythe996kmofreservoircreatedbythe11projectsbetweenChiangSaenandKratie.20%ofaffected agriculturallandswouldbepermanentlylostthroughinundationorclearing,whiletheuseandproductivityof theremaining80%underirrigationschemeswouldexperienceincreasedcomplicationinmanagementand systemperformance: Lossofriverbankgardens(RBGs)inthereservoirareas,andforsomedistancebelowdamswouldaffect ~450,000households,withsomesignificantimpactsonlivelihoodsofripariancommunitiesincludingtheloss ofanimportantruralfoodsource(Table17). Table17:LossesinRiverBankGardens(RBGs)duetoLMBmainstreamdams

ZONE 2 3 4 5 6 Totals Riverdependent ruralpop(2005) 313,939 1,343,182 232,397 3,581,952 6,482,368 11,953,838 Riverdependent HH<15kmriver 62,788 268,636 46,479 716,390 1,296,474 2,390,767 riverdependentHH affectedLMBMDs 54,811 59,906 20,141 nochange nochange 134,858 no.HHwithRBGs affectedbyLMBMD 7,564 7,488 2,216 49,431 381,163 447,862 TotalareaofRBGlostdueto reservoirs(ha) 1,891 1,872 554 12,358 95,291 111,966
Aminimum9,000haofagriculturalandirrigatedlandwouldbeinundateddueto10ofthemainstream projects.55SamborandLatSuawouldhavethelargestknownimpactsfloodingmorethan50%ofthistotal (~5,000ha)primarilyduetotheflatterterrainoftheMekonginthesezones.Thereareimportantagricultural areasinnorthernLaoPDR;withPakBenginundatingsome1,657haofagriculturallandwithsignificantareas alsoaffectedbythePakLay(830ha)andSanakham(762ha).Thesteepterrainandremotenessofnorthern

54
Theareatotalsforeachlandusetyperefertothe50kmcorridoraroundtheMekongmainstreamandusedinthis analysis. 55 ThisdoesnotconsideranylossofirrigatedlandassociatedwithStungTrengforwhichthereiscurrentlynoavailable information.
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LaowouldprovideagreatbarrierinlocatingnearbyreplacementfarmsthaninsouthernLaoPDRand Cambodia. Afurther32,000hawouldhavepumpingandirrigationofftakeinfrastructurecompromised.Some 304downstreampumpstationswouldneedtoberelocated,resizedandequippedwithimproved controls.Inaddition,withshottimescalefluctuationsindamdischarges,thegravityfedcolmatagesof theCambodianfloodplainareatriskofreducedefficienciesincreasingthepumpingdemandofthis importantagriculturalregion. Some10,00015,000haoflandwouldbeclearedfortransmissionandaccessroadsfor7oftheLMB mainstreamprojects.5675%ofwhichwouldbeforestlandand25%cultivatedland. Table18:ValuesoflostRBGs(RiverBankGardens) Presentyieldof yieldof totalvaluelost Thenetbalanceofagriculturalopportunitiesand vegetables vegetableslost peryear(USD losses(includingriverbankgardens)wouldlikelybe ZONE produced(kg) (tonnes) million) negative.Increasinginagriculturalactivityplannedin 2 12,997 11,346 9.08 theirrigationschemesofthemainstreamdamsamount 3 50,369 11,232 8.99 toUSD15million/yr,whilelossesassociatedwith agriculturalland(USD5.4million/yr)andriverbank 4 7,669 3,323 2.66 gardens(USD20.7million/yr)wouldmorethanoffset 5 74,146 0 0.00 anypotentialgains(Table18). 6 571,745 0 0.00 Totals 716,926 25,901 20.72 TheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldworsenthedistributionofagriculturalbenefitsamongstriverine communitieswithagriculturallossesincurredalongitsentirelengthaffectingintheorderof20%ofthe 11.9millionriverdependentMekongpopulation,whilethebenefitswouldbelocalisedatirrigationschemes nearindividualdamsites. TheLMBmainstreamprojectswouldpreferencelargerandmediumsizedirrigationprojectswhichhave proventobelessreliableandlessflexibleinsustaininglivelihoodsintheMekongregion: TheglobalandLMBexperiencewithlargerirrigationschemesisthattheyunderperform.InCambodia areviewof900,000hairrigatedbysome2,500schemesfoundthat62%didnotwork,32%partially workedandonly6%ofallschemesworkedwell. Largerschemesfavourricepaddyfarmingandarelessflexibletofarmersneedsandcrop diversification.Changestocroppingandfarmingpatternstypicallyrequireexpensivereengineering oftheirrigationinfrastructure
Theprojectswouldhaveanimpactonterrestrialandaquaticbiodiversitywhichisofinternational significanceabouthalfthelengthoftheLowerMekonghasbeenrecognizedasKeyBiodiversityAreas. 80%oftheKeyBiodiversityAreas(KBA)alongtheMekongRiverwouldbeaffectedbythedams withlossoflandscapevalue,habitatdiversityandbreedingandfeedingareasforcharacteristic species,especiallybirds(79%ofKBAsinZone2,&100%ofKBAsinZone3&4). ThegloballyimportantSiphandonewetlandswouldbedirectlyaffectedwithreducedseasonal variabilityandlossofwetlandhabitats AninternationallyRamsarsiteaboveStungTrengwouldbedirectlyaffected.Notificationtothe RamsarConventionSecretariatthattheStungTrengsiteshouldbeplacedontheMontreuxRecordof threatenedwetlandswithdedesignationbeinglikelyiftheStungTrengdamisbuilt. Themainstreamdamswouldhaveonlyaminorcontributiononthereductionoffloodedforestand wetlandareasoftheTonleSapaspredictedinthe20Ywithmainstreamdamscenario.9398%ofthe
56
NoinformationwasavailableforPakBeng,PakLay,Sanakham,LatSua,StungTreng
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changewouldbedirectlyrelatedtoregulationoftheMekonghydrologybytributaryandChinese hydropower,with27%attributedtomainstreamdams. Poororuncoordinatedmanagementofthemainstreamcascadescouldresultinretentiontimesin theorderofseveralweeks,whichwouldimpactonthetimingandrateoftransitionbetween terrestrialandaquaticphasesofthedownstreamfloodedforestsandwetlands.
11 AQUATICSYSTEMS
11.1 BASELINE
WithouttheLMBmainstreamdamsthetrendsbyzonearesummarisedas: Zone1:RivermorphologyandaquaticecologyinZone1willchangesignificantlyovernext20years duetothepresenceoftheYunnancascade. Zone2:ContinuedgradualdegradationoftheriverinZone2,withlossoffishdiversityand productionandreductioninriverweed Zone3:Generalfurtherdegradationofthehabitatandbiodiversity Zone4:IndicatorsofenvironmentaldegradationarepresentinZone4andarelikelytoincreaseloss ofhabitat,lossofbiodiversity,declineinfishproduction,bioaccumulationoftoxiccompoundsinthe foodchain,recentincreasesinfilamentousalgae Zone5:IncreasedpressureontheaquaticecosysteminZone5,especiallyintheTonleSapfrom hydrologicalchanges,extentofflooding,increasedpollution,andharvestsofaquaticresources exceedingtheproductivitybase Zone6:IncreasingpopulationpressureinZone6willaddtothepollutionloadandtendtowards decliningwaterquality,changinghydrologyandsedimentflowswillalterdeltadynamics,especially undertheincreasinginfluenceofclimatechange.
11.1.1 BIODIVERSITY&AQUATICHABITATSOFTHEMEKONGRIVER
TheMekongRiverisoneofthemostbiodiverseriversystemsintheworld,secondonlytotheAmazon,with 781speciesscientificallydescribedfromthewholesystem.TheaquaticecosystemsoftheMekongare relativelynaturalatthemoment,withhighdiversityofaquatichabitatsrapids,deeppools,sandbarsetc. thatallcontributetotheveryhighbiodiversityintheriver.Therehavebeensomechangesinrecentyears,e.g. thedevelopmentoftwoupstreamdamsinChina,andonsomeofthetributariesintheLMB,thathavebegun toalterthehydrologyandpatternsofsedimentdischarge,sothattherivermorphologyisbeginningto change.Asthesedevelopmentsincreaseinsizeandnumber,sothisprocessofchangewillcontinueinthe absenceofthemainstreamdams. Pressuresfromhumanactivitiesareincreasinglyputtingriverdependentfaunaatrisk,withaminimumof 28specieslistedasendangeredorvulnerable.ThisincludesmanyofthecharismaticMekongspecies. ThebiodiversityoftheMekongasmeasuredbyfishspeciesbiodiversitywilltendtodecreaseoverthenext 20years,mainlyunderpressurefromoverexploitation,fromthedecreaseddiversityofaquatichabitatsand insomelocationsduetodecliningwaterquality(Table19).Thepassageofmigratoryfishspeciesupand downtheMekongmainstreamwillbemaintained.
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Table29:NumberoffishspeciesineachzoneofMekongmainstream
Z2 Chiang Saen Vientiane 12 140 26 4 110 18.6 17.9 Z3 Vientiane Pakse NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Z5 Kratie - Phnom Penh and Tonle Z6 Phnom Penh Z4 Pakse - Kratie Sap Delta 36 40 56 252 284 486 40 31 28 5 4 3 207 249 455 15.9 10.9 5.8 32.3 36.4 62.2
Zone Number of families Number of species Endemic species Introduced species Native species Percentage of endemics Percentage of all Mekong species (781)
Z1 China 13 151 19 7 125 12.6 19.3
11.1.2 PRODUCTIVITYOFMEKONGAQUATICHABITATS
ChanginghydrologyandsedimentflowsresultingfromthedamsinChinaandthetributarieswillalterthe rivermorphologyandtheproductivityofdifferentpartsoftheriverchannelinthemainstream.Raiseddry seasonwaterlevelsanddecreasingsedimentcomingdowntheriverwilltendtoreducethediversityand productivityoftheMekongmainstream ThecontributiontototalNPP(NetPrimaryProductivity)frominchannelfeaturesduetotheexposureindry seasonrangesfrom15%64%inthedifferentzones(Table20).ThisrepresentsatotalLMBinchannelNPP of980,3301,584,496TonsC/yr.: Zone4hasthehighestinchannelproductivity(upto545,000tonC/yr)withZ2,Z3andZ5varyingeach producingupto380,000tonsC/yr. Zone2hasthehighestproportionofproductivityconfinedtotheMekongchannel
TotalNPPofexposedareas (TonsC/yr) min max N/A N/A 204,323 381,403 245,486 342,531 324,465 545,093 206,056 315,470 N/A N/A 980,330 1,584,496 %contributionofinchannelNPPtototalNPP fortheMekongripariancorridor min max N/A N/A 33% 64% 15% 39% 25% 56% 20% 48% N/A N/A 15% 64%
Table20:EstimatesofinchannelseasonalNPPintheLMB
Zone Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 TOTALS
HalvingoftheMekongRiverannualsedimentloadwillfurtherreduceprimaryproductivityoftheMekong River.Thecascadeof8damsplannedforYunnanProvinceandthetributaryprojectsoftheLMBwillreduce thesedimentloadoftheMekongRiverby50%atKratieandintheorderof80%inZone2.Asignificantload ofnutrientsisattachedtothesesedimentsresultinginasignificantreductioninnutrientloadswhichwill furtherreducetheproductivityoftheMekongsystem. Itisnotpossibletorelatethechangesinprimaryproductivitytofishcatches,becauseofthecomplexityof therelationships,andthefactthatfishcatchesaredependentlargelyuponthecatcheffortaswellasthe standingstock.Nevertheless,netprimaryproductivityisanindicatoroftherelativerichnessofthezone
11.1.3 CAPACITYOFTHEMEKONGSECOSYSTEMREGULATINGSERVICESWATER QUALITY

Whilsttheriverisrelativelycleanandingoodecosystemhealthatpresent,thereareincreasingpoint sourcesofpollution,e.g.urbanareas,anddispersedsources,e.g.agriculturalrunoff,whicharecurrently
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mitigatedbythelargedilutioneffectoftheriverflow.57Theresultofthisisthatpoorwaterqualityisoften ratherlocalised,andquicklydiluted,withrapidimprovementinwaterqualitye.g.afterhighpollutingloads fromurbanareas. Acidificationofsurfacewatersisthemostsignificantwaterqualityissue,withanoticeabletrend throughoutZone3(VientianePakse) OrganicloadsareincreasinglybecomingaproblematVientiane,NakhomPhanomandKhong Chiam,reflectiveofthelargepopulationcentresatthesesites. NitrogenandphosphorousloadsarenotproblematicatanyreachbetweenChiangSaenandPakse. MineralisationisaffectingwaterqualitydownstreamofChiangSaenandVientiane.
Therearesignsofdecreasingwaterqualityatrendwhichisexpectedtoincreaseinthefuturewithgrowth ofpopulation.ThesetrendsarestrongestfordownstreamareasoftheLMBandalsoneargrowingpopulation centres. XiangKokhasshownthemostsignificantdeteriorationofecologicalhealthinthepast5years TheimportantwetlandsofSongkhramandSiphandonecontinuetoshowgoodecologicalhealthand arenotaffectedbythepoorerhealthupstreamatVientianeandNakhomPhranomsuggestingthat thelargeMekongflowscontinuestodilutecontaminantsandamelioratepoorwaterqualityissues. TheMekongbranchinthedeltacontinuestodisplaypoorerecologicalhealththantheBassacbranch.
Ingeneral,zones2and3continuetomaintainitskeyecologicalfeaturesbetterthanthelowerzones(Table 21): Table21:ResultsoftheIBFMspecialistassessmentsofecologicalstatusofdifferentriverzones:A= Excellent/Unmodified;B=Good/largelynatural;C=satisfactory/moderatelymodified;D=roomfor improvement;E=improvementnecessary/largelymodified Discipline Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6
Geomorphology (channel form) Water Quality (chemical only) Vegetation - In Channel/River bank Invertebrates Fish Water Birds Frogs/Reptiles B+ B C B C C C
B-
Geomorphology:ChannelformremainsunmodifiedinZone4andhasundergoneonlymoderate modificationinotherzones. Inchannel/bankvegetation:hasundergoneminortoextensivemodificationinallzones,with degradationparticularlyprevalentinZone3and5. Invertebrates,fish,waterbirds,frogs&reptiles:Mostaquaticfaunahavebemoderatelymodified throughouttheLMB,withgenerallybetterpreservationinZone2andZone3.
B+ B C* D
#
A B B* C
#
B+ B D* B-E
#
C B-E C-D C D D+ D+
C+
B C C C
B-
B+ C D+ D+
C+
BC D+ D+
C+
11.1.4 VALUEOFTHEMEKONGRIVERSCULTURALECOSYSTEMSERVICES INSPIRATION,RECREATION&TOURISM
57
GoodreferstotheMRCIBFMscorecardratingandcorrespondstolargelynaturalconditions
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TOURISM&RECREATION TheMekongisrecognisedashavinganimmenseculturalvaluefortheripariancitiesandcommunitiesand fortourism.Thetouristattractionofalarge,dramatic,nearnaturalriver,afeatureoftheGMStourism strategy,isexpectedtocontinuetoincreaseinthefuture. ThailandcontinuestodominatetourismintheMekongbasin,howeverothernationaltourismsectorsare growingproportionatelyfaster(Figure34). InLaoPDR,projectionsindicatethatinternationalarrivalswillgrowfrom1.6millionvisitorsin2007to3.5 millionvisitorsby2015,withtourismrevenuerisingfromUSD233milliontoUSD399million.Dependencyon tourismforlivelihoodsvariesfrom23%inXayabouriprovinceupto20%insomeareasofChampassak Figure34:Trendsintourism:(a)TrendsintourismarrivalstotheGMS;(b)estimatedvalueoftourism expenditurein6GMScountries
60,000,000
50,000,000 40,000,000
EstimatedvalueoftourismexpenditureinGMS US$Billion 2004 5.27 1.94 4.07 1.19 2.33 14.8 2010 10.51 3.87 8.11 2.37 4.64 29.5 2015 18.67 6.87 14.4 4.21 8.25 52.4
SubSectors HotelandFood Transportation Shopping Tours OtherServices

Other GMS Countries
Arrivals
30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Thailand
TOTAL
CULTURALVALUE TheculturalvalueandlandscapeoftheMekongmainstreamwillremaingenerallyintactoverthenext20 years,althoughincreaseddryseasonwaterlevelsanddecreasingsedimentswillmeanthatareasof sandbarsandbeacheswillbelost.Thiswillsignificantlyreducetheavailabilityofthedriedareasintheriver channelfordryseasonrecreationbylocalresidentsinallzones.ThevalueoftheMekongmainstreamasa touristattractionwillbemarginallyimpactedbythesechanges.
11.2 IMPACTSASSESSMENT 11.2.1 AQUATICBIODIVERSITY

Thelossofhabitatswouldencouragetheproliferationofgeneralistspeciesthatcanbreedwithinthebody ofthereservoiranddonotrequirespecialisedhabitatsorhydrologicaltriggerstoinducespawning. Thefragmentationoftheriversystembythe11mainstreamdamswouldisolateaquaticpopulationsinto pocketsleadingtoalossofspecies. Fish:biodiversitylosseswouldbemostsignificantforfishspecieswhichcouldseelossesofuptohalf therecordedspeciesinsomezones(alsoseefisheriesimpactassessmentsection). Mollusks: The Mekong has the highest number of freshwater snails in the world many of these specieswouldbethreatenedbythelossinhabitat Amphibians:dependuponthewetlandpoolsleftbyrecedingfloodwatersforbreedingthesespecies wouldbeaffectedinallzonesoftheMekongRiver Riverdependentbirds:birdspeciesthatrelyonexposedsandbarsandriverbanksforbreedingand nesting would suffer from lost habitats. In Zone 2 and northern Zone 3 these include the River
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Lapwings, and Pranticoles. In Zone 3 and Zone 4 these include various storks (painted and woolly necked), greater and lesser Adjutants, and ibises such as the Great Ibis, Blackshouldered Ibis, endangeredRiverTernsandtheendemicMekongwagtails. Irrawaddydolphin:Themainstreamdamsarelikelytobethefinalthreatleadingtotheextinctionof thecriticallyendangeredIrrawaddydolphin. GiantMekongCatfish:DependingonthemigrationroutesthewildpopulationsoftheGiantMekong CatfishwouldfacelocalextinctionfromtheCambodianfloodplainsandpotentiallytotalextinctionif thepopulationsinZone4andZone2arelinked. SiamesecrocodilesarefoundintheStungTrengRamsarsite,thispopulationofSiamesecrocodiles wouldfacelocalextirpationduetothemainstreamdams. Turtles: significant reduction in most species of turtles living in the Mekong, including the Cantor giantsoftshellturtle,duetolossofsandbarsandseasonalbreedinghabitats Otters: the mainstream dams would reduce the availability of suitable habitats and potentially fragment populations of Otters living in the Mekong and Tonle Sap systems including the three critical species: (i) hairynosed otter(endangered), (ii) smoothcoated otter (vulnerable), and (iii) orientalsmallclawedotter(vulnerable).
11.2.2 WATERQUALITY
Theimpactsonwaterqualitydifferduringconstructionandoperationalphases.Dependingonthephasingof mainstream projects, the construction period impacts could be drawn out well beyond a single project constructionphaseofsome5to8years. Construction: the adverse water quality impacts during construction are likely to be worst during the dry season. Increased sediment loads: rock blasting and earth moving activities are likely to increase sediment loads which could have significant localised implications smothering gravel beds and riffles downstreamandimpactingonfishspawning. Increasedorganicmatter:increasedsolidandwastewaterloadingwithlocalisedimplications Increased oxygen demand: the Cambodian projects would flood large land areas causing the decompositionofvegetativematter Spillages: localised implications from fuels, oils, toxic compounds, concrete & other construction materialsintothedownstreamareas. Operationalphase:thelongtermimplicationsoftheLMBmainstreamprojectstothewaterqualityofthe MekongRiverwouldbelessseverethanduringconstruction: Reduced turbidity: the sediment load would drop by 75% (1/3 of which is directly related to the mainstreamdams)thiswouldinthelongtermreducetheturbidityofthewatercolumn Reducedorganicmattertransport:TheMekongRivertransportsasignificantamountofvegetative andwoodydebrisalongitslengthwhichplayanimportantroleintherecyclingofnutrientsbackinto theMekongsystem.Themainstreamdamswouldcausetheconcentrationofthismatterwithinthe reservoirs severing one of the important longitudinal biochemical connections between the headwatersandfloodplainsoftheMekongsystem. Cumulative effects: predictions suggest that by 2030; phosphorous and nitrogen levels would increaseby100%and85%respectively,whilewastewaterdischargeswouldincreaseby35%which mayleadtoseasonallocalisedreductionsinwaterqualityinsomeofthemainstreamreservoirs. Increasedriskofmajorpollutionevents:productsusedduringoperations,forexampletransformer oil, have the potential to cause catastrophic impacts on water quality through spillages, leaks and componentfailure.
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11.2.3 CULTURAL&ECOSYSTEMSERVICES
Significantchangestoculturalecosystemvaluesoftheriverwouldaffectthesocial,culturalandreligious structure of communities along the river, especially those adjacent to the reservoirs or immediately downstream of the dams. These changes would have important livelihood and economic implications and include: Festivals:changesandlossofrelevancemaybeexpectedinfestivalsandculturaleventsassociated withtheriveranditsseasons. Wayoflife:Most(80%)oftheMekongriverinecommunitiesaredependentonthenaturalresources oftheMekongRiverfortheirlivelihoods.Thechangespredictedforthemainstreamprojectswould requirechangesinfarming,fishing,andtransportationpracticesaswellasrecreationalactivities. Tourism:Theperceptionandwillingnesstopayforriverbasedactivitiesofvisitorsandtouriststothe Mekong region would be affected, especially during the construction period, and tourism products and marketing would have to be changed once the dams and reservoirs have been created to re developriverbasedtourism.
11.2.4 ASSESSMENTOFRISKSBYPROJECTGROUPS
UPPERLAOPROJECTS(PAKBENGPAKCHOM) Thecascadeof6damsupstreamofVientianewouldcauseverysignificantchangestoaquaticecosystems. Over80%ofzone2wouldbechangedfromafreeflowingrivertoaregulatedcascadeofreservoirs.Similar proportionsofalltheaquatichabitats(rocksandrapids,riffles,sandbarsanddeeppools)wouldbechanged, withaconsequentlossofbreedingandspawningareas(Figure35). ThebiggestlosswouldbeonconnectivitybetweentheseaandtheUpperMekong.Evenifallthedamsin thecascadearefittedwithefficientandeffectivefishpassages,thestretchofsixdamsincascadeovera distanceofnearly800kmrepresentsanimpossiblebarrierforthelongdistancemigratoryspecies. Theaquaticbiodiversitywouldbecomeseriouslyimpoverished,themoresobecausetherearefewmajor tributariesenteringthezone,whichcanprovidealternativespawningareas.Therewouldbelocalspecies extirpations,possiblyasmuchas2030%ofcurrentspeciesnumbers.Productivityofthiszonewouldalso decrease,especiallyforMekongriverweed. Figure35:Exponentialreductionoftheoverallupstreamfishpassagerateincaseofacascadeofdams(50% isanarbitraryhighpassagerate)
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InundationoftheLMBmainstreamreservoirswillresultinthelossofcriticalinchannelandriparian aquatichabitatsaboveVientiane,(e.g.PakChom)representsalossofauniqueareaintheMekong(Figure 35).Theriverreach40kmnorthofVientianemarksthetransitionbetweenthebedrockconfined,steep gradient,meanderingchannelofZone2andthealluvialreachesofZone3withwiderchannels.Thisareais possiblycomparableinimportance,thoughnotinscale,toaquaticecologyoftheotherareasofaquatic habitatdiversitylowerdownthesystem,e.g.inSiphandone. ThecascadeofprojectswouldhaveanimmediatedownstreamimpactextendingatleastdowntoVientiane asaresultofdailyvariationsinflow,andsedimenttrappingandflushingdischarges.However,thesewould certainlyhavebeenbalancedoutbythetimetheriverhaspassedthroughtherestofZone3.Thebiggest impactfromanaquaticecologypointofviewwouldbeasabarriertomigrationoffish.ThelowerpartofZone 2actsasatransitionbetweentheupperreachesandmiddlereachesoftheLowerMekongandhence indirectlywiththelowerreaches,thedeltaandthesea. MIDDLELAOPROJECTS(BANKOUMLATSUA) ThetwoprojectsinthemiddlereachesoftheMekongBanKoum(LaoThai)andLatSua(LaoPDR),would havelessaneffectonZone3itselfthanthecascadeaboveVientianewouldhaveonZone2. However,BanKoumoccupiesastretchoftheriver,whichisdistinctandecologicallysignificantinthecontext ofZone3,containingalmostallthedeeppoolsandrocky/rapidareasintheZone.Thesetwodamsare intendedtooperateasneartorunofriveraspossiblewithminimumdailydrawdown,andsoshouldhave littleimpactdownstreamintermsofdailyflowvariation.HoweverthedirectinfluenceofBanKoumwouldbe feltintheaquaticecologyasfardownstreamasPakse,andthedirectinfluenceofLatSuawouldbefeltwell downintoSiphandone,butprobablynotbeyondKhoneFalls. Thesetwodamswouldactasasignificantbreakintheconnectivityofthemainstreambetweenthelower partsoftheMekongandthemiddleandupperreachesandfishpassageswouldnotbeeffectiveformore thanafewspecies.Therelevanceoffishpassageinthissectionisnotjustforthefisheryinthemainstream, butalsoforthetributariesinsouthernandcentralLaoPDRandtheChiMunsystemofThailand.Fish productivityandbiodiversitywouldbelostfromthesetributariesofnortheastThailandandsouthernand centralLaoPDRasaresultofthesetwomiddlereachdams(Figure37). Figure36:ThePakChomreservoir:showingtheseasonallyexposedinchannelwetlandareas,withthe diversityof
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habitat
Figure37:BarriereffectsoftheBanKoumandLatSuaprojects:LocationofBanKoumandLatSuadamsand barriereffectontheMun/Chisubbasins
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LOWERLAOPROJECTS(DONSAHONG&THAKHO) ThesmallerhydropowerschemesatKhoneFallsDonSahongandThakhoareofsignificancefordifferent reasons. ThakhoHPPistruerunofriverprojectinvolvingadiversionofaproportionofwateraroundtheKhone Falls.Itwouldhavenoeffectuponfishmigrationnorwoulditpermanentlyinundatedaquatichabitats upstream. DonSahongwouldblocktheonlychannelthatisknowntoprovideayearroundrouteformigratingfish. Thiswouldbeabarrierforsomeoftheimportantsmallcommercialspeciesthatuseitduringthedryseason. LatestplansindicatethatDonSahongwouldalsodeepentheentrancetotheHouSahongchanneltoattracta largerproportionofseasonalflowsinordertoincreaseelectricityproduction.Inthedryseasonthiswould reducetheflowcomponentthroughtheotherchannelsoftheMekongespeciallyintheHouPhaphengwhich passesthelargestcomponentofthedryseasonflow(figure38). Figure 38: Proposed Don Sahong channel excavation: 1.6 million tonnes would be excavated from the Hou Sahongchanneltoencourageagreaterproportionofthedryseasonflowandenhanceelectricitygeneration potential.
CAMBODIANPROJECTS(STUNGTRENGSAMBOR) TheCambodianprojectswouldinundateoneoftherichestandmostbiologicallydiverseareasoftheentire Mekongsystem,anareaofglobalimportancetoaquaticbiodiversity.Thisisauniqueareawithimmense diversityofrivermorphology,aquatichabitatsandlandscapevalue,bothintheMekongsystem,butalsoin othermajorriversystems.Becauseofthetopographyandnatureoftheriverchannel,theareaofinundation wouldbemuchlargerthanthedamsupstream,andcovermanyoftheislands,deeppools,rocksandrapids andsandbars.
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TheCambodianprojectswouldinvolvethelossofrareandendangeredaquaticspecies,e.g.theGiant Mekongcatfish,and,combinedtotheDonSahongDam,wouldmostprobablybethefinalthreatforthe IrrawaddyDolphinwhosedryseasonhabitatlieswithintheimpactedarea. IftheselowerMekongdamsweretobeconstructed,thebiggestimpactwouldbeintermsofthe connectivityofthesystem,especiallyforfishmigration.TheMekongaboveKratietotheLaoborderandup theKhoneFallsisanimportantdestinationforfishmigratingoutoftheTonleSap.ThecombinationofSambor andStungTrengdamswouldeffectivelystopthis.Sambordamwouldalsostoptheimportantfishmigration routeupthe3Srivers,especiallytheSekong.ThedownstreamflowsfromStungTrengdammightalsoalter theabilityofmigratoryfishtonavigateupthe3Srivers. DownstreamofSambor,theaquaticecologyoftheriverbelowKratiewouldbeaffectedbychangingdailyflow patternsandsedimenttrappingandflushing.ThereservoirsofSamborandStungTrengwouldhavethe highestsedimenttrappingefficienciesofallLMBmainstreamprojectsdestabilisingdownstreamchannels andbetweenKratieandPhnomPenhandcuttingoverbanksiltationintheCambodianfloodplain.
12 FISHERIES
TheMekongfisheryistheworldslargestfreshwaterfishery.Itcomprisesamassiveinlandfisheryproducing some2.1milliontonnesperyear(closeto20%oftheworldsfreshwaterfishyield)andasubstantialcoastal fisheryproducingintheorderof0.5milliontonnesperyear. TheMekongisafishbiodiversityhotspot.With781knownspeciesscientifically,itishometothesecond highestfishbiodiversityintheworldaftertheAmazonRiver.TheMekongisalsocharacterisedbyvery intensivefishmigrations.AtleastathirdofMekongfishspeciesneedtomigratebetweendownstream floodplainswheretheyfeedandupstreamtributarieswheretheybreed.Damsareamajorobstacletothese migrations.
12.1 BASELINE 12.1.1 BIODIVERSITY

TheMekongisafishbiodiversityhotspot.With781knownspeciesscientifically,itishometothesecond highestfishbiodiversityintheworldaftertheAmazonRiver.TheMekongisalsocharacterisedbyvery intensivefishmigrations,atleastathirdofMekongfishspeciesneedtomigratebetweendownstream floodplainswheretheyfeedandupstreamtributarieswheretheybreed.Damsareamajorobstacletothese migrations. Atleast250,000haoffloodplainswillbelostby2030duetotheproposedtributaryprojects.Thiswillreduce theavailablehabitatputtingincreasedpressuresonthefishery.
12.1.2 MIGRATIONS
MigrationsintheLowerMekongBasintakeplaceinthreedistinctmigrationsystems:thelowermigration system(fromtheDeltauptoKhoneFalls),themiddlemigrationsystem(fromKhoneFallsuptoVientiane)and theuppermigrationsystem(fromVientianeuptoChina).Catchesareimportantinthetwofirstsystems (abouthalfofthetotalcatcheach)andcomparativelyverysmall(around60,000tonnesperyear)intheupper migrationssystem.TheHouSahongchannelistheonlymigrationpathwayovertheKhoneFallswhichcan facilitatedryseasonpassagefortheimportantmiddlemigrationsystem.Damshaveadifferentimpactonfish speciesdependingontheguildorecologicalgrouptheybelongto.Mekongfishguildshavedifferent physiologicalcapabilities,requirementsorbehaviorsandarecharacterisedbythreecolors:
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Whitefishareverysentitivetodammingbecausespeciesofthisecologicalgroupneedtomigrate overlongdistancestocompletetheirlifecycle. Greyfishmigratebetweenfloodplainsandlocaltributariesandarenotverysensitivetomainstream dams. Blackfishhaveashorthomerange,areveryrobustandcanadapttoreservoirenvironment;theyare theleastatriskfromdamming.
Thepresenceof77tributarydamsinthebasinby2030willresultinobstructionof37%offishmigration routes. In2000,20.6%oftheLowerMekongBasinwasalreadybarredby16damsandwasinaccessibleto fishspecieshavingtomigratetotheupstreampartsoftherivernetwork. In2015,thisareawillhaveincreasedby14%(from164,000to188,000km2)(Figure39); Ifnomainstreamdamsarebuilt,thesurfaceareamadeinaccessibletolongdistancemigrantfishby damsontributarieswillrepresent37.3%ofthewatershed
Figure39:SubcatchmentsoftheMekongBasinblockedbyhydropowerdevelopmentby2015
12.1.3 FISHPRODUCTION
CAPTUREFISHERIES ThemostreliableestimateoffishproductionintheMekongbasinis2.1milliontonnesperyear,with estimatesvaryingfrom0.75to2.6milliontonnesperyear.ByFAOrecords,thisrepresents22%oftheworlds freshwaterfisheries.Thiscatchoffishissupplementedbyabouthalfamilliontonnesofotheraquaticanimals (freshwatershrimps,snails,crabs,frogs,etc)complementingthecatchandthedietofriparianpeople.. Freshwaterfishsupplyiscriticalforfoodsecurityinthebasin,particularlyinCambodia.ThefourMekong countriesfeaturethehighestconsumptionoffreshwaterfishintheworld.Cambodiainparticularholdsthe worldrecordforconsumptionoffreshwaterfish.Theshareofproteincomingfromfreshwaterfishinpeoples dietrepresentsbetween2.2and8.6timestheworldaverage,andalternativestofishproteinsarenotalways
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available.Thus,inthewholeLMBthereismuchmorefreshwaterfishharvestedthancattleproduced,andin CambodiaandLaoPDR,fishproductionamountstotwicethecombinedproductionofporkandchicken. ChickenandporkarealternativestofishinthreeoftheLowerMekongcountries,butnotinCambodiawhere fishisbyfarthedominantsourceofprotein. Figure40:Currentestimatesoffishproductionforthe3keyMekongmigratorysystems
By2030,tributaryandUMBhydropowerwillreducetheproductivityoftheMekongfisheryby210,000 560,000tonnes/yr.Thisrepresentsa1026%reductioninbasinwideproductivity. RESERVOIRFISHERIES: By2030,ReservoirfishproductioninallthetributaryandUMBdamsislikelytoreach53,000tonnes/yr (rangeof15,000240,000).
12.1.4 MEKONGMARINEFISHERY
TheMekongmarinefisheryispoorlyunderstoodandisproducingmorethan0.5milliontonnesoffishper year.Pasttrendsindicatethatthesectorhasgrownby80%inthelast15years.Themostrecentcatch statisticssuggestingthatproductionhasreached726,000tonnesin2009.Itisunclearwhetherproductionin thecoastalfisheryislimitedbyfishstockorfishingeffort.Evenlessisknownoftheimportantscallopfishery atthemouthoftheMekongdistributaries(Figure41). TheMekongmarinefisheryisdependentontheapproximate100Mtofsedimentsand16,000tonnesof attachednutrientswhicharedepositedbytheMekongplumeintheshallownearcoastalshelfofthedelta. TheUMBandtributarydamswillinducea50%reductioninthearrivalofsedimentsandnutrientstothe coastalzone.Thiswillhaveasignificantimpactonmarinefisheries,thoughthemagnitudeandtimescales remainunclear.
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Figure41:Marinefishcatchtotalsfor8coastalprovincesintheMekongdelta(LongAn,TienGiang,BenTre, TraVinh,KienGiang,SocTrang,BacLieu,CaMau)
12.2 IMPACTSASSESSMENT 12.2.1 CHANGESINBIODIVERSITY

IfallLMBmainstreamdamsproceed,55%oftheMekongRiverbetweenChiangSaenandKratiewouldbe converted into reservoir,shifting the environment from riverine to lacustrine (Figure 23;41).58 This would havemajorimpactsonspeciescompositionandproductivity: Thereservoirsresultingfromdamconstructionwouldfloodcriticalriverinewetlandhabitatsalong theMekongchannel,resultinginthelossof76%ofallrapids;48%ofalldeeppools;and16%ofall sandbarsinthesectionbetweentheChineseborderandSambor.59 Reservoirswouldnotbeabletosupportthesamefishspeciesdiversityasthemorediversified naturalriverinesystem,andwouldresultinalossofthenumberofMekongfishspecies.An additional58,000hectaresoffloodplainhabitatwouldbelostduetodamdevelopmentand subsequentchangesinflooding. Figure42:PercentageofMekongconvertedtoreservoir Atleast41mainstreamspeciesoutof262species intheecologicalzoneupstreamofVientianeare threatenedbyaseverealterationoftheir habitat.Thereisnoinformationastowhetherany ofthesespeciesthreatenedcancompletetheirlife cycleinreservoirs.Thefamilymostexposedwould beBalitoridae(riverloaches),withabout10%of its93Mekongspeciesatrisk.Theiconic,endemic andcriticallyendangeredMekongGiantcatfish wouldbecomeextinctinthewildsinceitsmain breedingareaislocatedinthisarea,nearChiang Saen.However,beyondthese41mainstream species,itisnotpossibletoseparatetheimpacts
58 59
thiscorrespondsto43%ofthelengthoftheMekongbetweentheChineseborderandthesea seeAquatic&Terrestrialsection
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ofthe6proposedmainstreamdamsfromthe17proposedtributarydams. Impactsofthemiddleandlowerclustersofdamsonbiodiversityareunclear.Fishbiodiversityinthesezones ishigh(386and669speciesrespectively)andwoulddecrease,butthespecificimpactofmainstreamdams comparedtothatofotherdriverssuchaslandusechanges,habitatfragmentationoragricultural intensificationcouldnotbequantified. Fiftyeightspeciesarehighlyvulnerabletomainstreamdamdevelopmentandafurther26speciesareat mediumriskofimpact.Those86speciesonlyrepresentspeciesatriskbecauseoftheirmigratorybehaviour; thefiguredoesnotincludethemanyspeciesatriskbecauseofenvironmentalchangesbroughtaboutbydams (e.g.:another41speciesfoundonlyinthemainstreamupstreamofVientianeareatriskifaclusterof6dams turns90%ofthisriversectionintoareservoir).Overallthetotalnumberofspeciesatriskofmainstreamdam developmentislikelytobegreaterthan100butisnotpreciselyknown. Inatropicalsystemcharacterisedbyafewdominantspeciesandmanyrareones,theproportionofspeciesat risk(11%ormore)doesnotreflectthefractionofharvestatrisk(35%ormore).
12.2.2 CHANGESINMIGRATIONS
Aminimumof35%oftheLMBfishharvestismadeoflongdistancemigrantspecieswhosemigrations wouldbebarredbydams.Mainstreamdamswouldobstructmigrationsbetweenupstreambreedingzones andfloodplainfeedingzones,damslocatedlowerintheBasinblockingmoremigrationroutesthanthose locatedupstream(Figure43).
Notalldamshavethesameimpact;thebarriereffectonmigrationreflectstheproportionofupstream tributariesblockedbytheproject.DamsoftheCambodianclusterhavethehighestimpactonfish migrations;inparticulartheSambordamwouldblockaccessofmigrantfloodplainfishto81%ofthebasin. Thesedamswouldblockthemigrationofatleast43speciesrepresentingathirdofthetotalannualMekong fishyield. TheLaoupstreamclusterofdamswouldblockmigrationofatleast23fishspecies,theLaomiddleclusterof damswouldblockmigrationofatleast41fishspeciesandtheCambodianclusterofdamswouldblock migrationofatleast43fishspecies.
Figure43:BarriereffectsofLMBmainstreamdams:AreaoftheLMBcatchment(%)blockedtofishmigrations bytheUpper,MiddleandLowerclustersofdams
81%blockedwith11LMBm'streamdams 79%blockedwith9damsinUpper&Middle
cluster 69%blockedwith6damsinUppercluster
37%BlockedwithnoLMBmainstreamdams

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Therearelimitedalternativemigrationroutesforlongdistancemigrantfishspecies.Twentyeightofthe41 speciesknowntomigratethroughKhoneFallshaveanalternativeinthe3Ssystem(exceptifLowerSesan2or the40otherdamsconsideredinthese3watershedsarebuilt)and15intheMun/Chisystem(exceptifthePak MundamisclosedortheLatSuadamisbuilt). TheChiMunand3Ssystemsareamongstthemostimportantforspawning&breeding.TheLatSuadam, althoughlocatedonly34kmbelowtheBanKoumdam,wouldhavemuchgreaternegativeimpactonfish migrationsandproductionbecauseitwouldblockaccesstotheMun/Chisystem(70,000km2).TheLatSua damwouldalsohaveagreaterimpactonfishmigrationsthanthePakMunDambecauseitwouldblockMun Riverfishmigrationsaswellasspeciesmigratingupthemainstream. FishpassesarenotarealisticmitigationoptionforMekongmainstreamdams.Existingtypesandsizesoffish ladderscannotaccommodatetheintensityanddiversityoffishmigrationsonthemainstream.60Sevenofthe proposedmainstreamdamsarehigherthanthemaximumheightatwhichfishladdersareoperational(~30m). Worldwide,effectivefishladdersarethosethathavebeenspecificallydesignedforafewwellknowntarget speciesthatmigrateannuallyinlimitednumbersundersimilarhydrologicalconditions;incontrasttheMekong ischaracterisedbymorethan50differentmigrantspecieswithdifferentrequirements,hugedensitiesduring migrationpeaks(morethan30tonnesperhourintheTonleSapRiver)andseveralmigrationpulsesperyear underverydifferenthydrologicalconditions.Thisabundanceanddiversitymakesthedesignofgenericand efficientfishpassesformainstreamdamsunrealistic.DonSahong,whoseheightisonly10m,istheonlydam forwhichafishpass(inthiscaseanaturelikebypasschannel)mightbeoperational. Onlythreeofthe11mainstreamdamprojectshaveexplicitanddetailedplansforfishpassfacilities.The inefficiencyoffishpassesonthemainstreamasamitigationmeasureisalsopredictablebecauseofadditional reasons: i) incaseofacascadeofdamsthenumberoffishesabletocrossseveralsuccessivedamsandpasses decreasesexponentially(e.g.outof100fisheshavingtomigratethrough3fishpasses characterisedbyagood50%passagerate,only12remainafterthe3rddam;seefigure34,section 11.6); ii)thetypeanddesignoffishpassesthatworkarebasedonbehaviouralstudiesoftargetfishspecies (wheretheyswimintheriver,theirswimmingcapabilities,theirattractionbyarangeofcurrent speeds,etc);intheMekong,therearenosuchstudiesavailableforanyspecies;designingafish ladderinabsenceofsuchinformationwillleadtofailure; iii) evenanefficientfishladderdoesnotguaranteethesurvivalofaspeciesiftheenvironment upstreamoftheladderisnotsuitable;upstreamofVientiane,if6damsaredeveloped,90%ofthe runningriverwillbeturnedintoareservoirandspecifictargetstudiesareneedtodetermine whetherMekongmigratoryspeciescancarryouttheirlifecycleintheseconditions. Table22:mainstreamdamsandfishpassesplannedinprojectdocuments61 Damheight(m) Fishpass PakBeng 76 Nomention LouangPrabang 68 Nomention Xayaburi 32 2fishladders,opening3mx10m PakLay 35 Mentionedbutnodetails Sanakham 38 Mentionedbutnodetails Pakchom 55 Mentionedbutnodetails BanKoum 53 Mentionedbutnodetails Latsua 27 800mx10mx3m;4fishentrances10mwide DonSahong 10.6 Excavatedbypasschannel Thakhodiversion Nodam(diversion) Notrequired StungTreng 22 Nomention Sambor 56 3,398mlong;nodetails
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ThisconclusionwasconfirmedbyapanelofinternationalexpertsconvenedbytheMRCinSeptember2008andby extensiveexperiencefromSouthAmerica 61 ProjectdocumentsincludeEIAs,IEEsandfeasibilitystudies,seeSEAInceptionreport,volumeII
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Forlowdams,fishladdersmaybeamitigationoption,butitisessentialthenthattheyareconsideredatthe earliestplanningstagesduringthedeterminationofdamlocationanddesign.Inallcases,knowledgeofthe requirementsoftargetspeciesisneededtoensuretheefficiencyofthefishpassconsidered.
12.2.3 CHANGESINCAPTUREFISHPRODUCTION
In2015thelossoffishcomparedtothe2000baselineisexpectedtorangebetween150,000and480,000 tonnesannually.Thisfishlosswillbedueto31newdamsontributariesandtootherfactorssuchaslossof floodplains,habitatfragmentation,fishingintensification,etc.Thiscorrespondsto50160%ofthetotal cumulatedlivestockproductionofCambodiaandLaoPDRin2008. In2030,withdevelopmentbasinwideandatotalof77damsontributaries,thelossoffishcomparedto year2000isexpectedtoamountto210,000540,000tonnesintheabsenceofmainstreamdams.This representsalossof10to26%ofthebaselineproductionor34%ofthe2015production,eventhough mainstreamdamsarenotbuilt. In2030,if6damsarebuiltupstreamofVientiane,alossrangingbetween270,000and600,000tonnesis expectedcomparedtothesituationin2000(i.e.minus1329%).Theadditionallosscomparedtothe situationin2030withoutmainstreamdamswouldrepresentabout60,000tonnes.Inthelattercasethis amountofproteinatriskofbeinglostannuallyif6mainstreamdamsarebuiltby2030represents60%ofthe currentlivestockproductioninLaoPDR.Thisassessmentisveryconservativeandcorrespondsonlytotheloss ofcatchinthehabitatsmodified.Itdoesnotreflectthelossofrecruitment,i.e.thelossoflarvaeandjuveniles bredupstreamandharvesteddownstreamasadults.Forthisreasontheactualimpactoftheupstreamgroup ofmainstreamprojectsislikelytobesubstantiallyhigherthan60,000tonnesbutatthistimeitcannotbe quantified. In2030,if9mainstreamdamsarebuiltupstreamofKhoneFalls,thelossinfishresourcesforecastedwould amountto350,000680,000tonnescomparedto2000(i.e.minus1732%),ortoaround200,000tonnes comparedto2015.Thiswouldalsorepresentalossofabout140,000tonnescomparedtothesituationin 2030withoutmainstreamdams.Again,thisisaveryconservativeestimate.Thisbiomassatriskofloss between2015and2030correspondstothewholeannualfreshwaterfishproductionofBrazilortothewhole annualmeatproductioninCambodia. In2030,if11mainstreamdamsarebuiltintheLMB,thetotalfishlossforecastedwouldamountto550,000 880,000tonnescomparedtothebaseline(i.e.minus2642%)andtoabout400,000tonnescomparedto thesituationin2015.Itwouldalsocorrespondtoalossof~340,000tonnescomparedtothesituationin2030 withoutmainstreamdams.Thislatteramountofproteinatriskofbeinglostannuallyif11mainstreamdams arebuiltby2030representsmore(110%)thanthecurrentcumulatedannuallivestockproductionof CambodiaandLaoPDR.550,000880,000tonnesoffishatriskisahugenumber;bycomparisontheannual freshwaterfishproductionofthewholeWestAfrica(15countries)amountstoaround600,000tonnes.This fishlosswouldhavecriticalconsequencesonfoodsecurityintheLMBcountries,inparticularinCambodiaand LaoPDR. Abovefiguresarebasedonthemostdetailedestimatesavailable,producedbytheMRCFisheriesProgramme fortheBDP2,andbasedonchangesinhabitatsandtheproductivityofeachhabitat.Theseestimatesarevery conservativesincetheyareasumoflocalsituations(beforeandafter)butdonotreflecttheimpactthata changeinagivenplace(e.g.abreedingsiteupstream)canhaveonanotherplace(e.g.afishingground downstream).Inotherwordsthisapproachundervaluesthelossofupstreamsiteswherefisheriesarenot intensivebutwherejuvenilesofmigrantspeciesaregeneratedbeforetheymigratedownstreamwherethey getcaught. Thusfishproductionwoulddeclineeveninabsenceofmainstreamdams,butmainstreamdamswould exacerbatethetrend,resultinginextremelyhighlosses.
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Table23:Fishproductionlossesforecastedfordifferentdevelopmentscenarios 2000(baseline) 16damsontributaries,2.1milliontonnesoffishproduced 2015 2030 47damson 77damsontributaries tributaries No No 6MSdams 9MSdams 11MS mainstream dams mainstream dams dams 150,000 480,000 210,000 270,000 350,000 550,000 540,000 600,000 680,000 880,000 ~60,000 ~120,000 ~60,000 ~200,000 ~140,000 ~400,000 ~340,000
Fishlossesin2015compared to2000(t) Fishlossesin2030compared to2000(t) Fishlossesin2030compared to2015(t) Fishlossesin2030compared to2030withnomainstream dams(t)
Figure44:Potentialimpactofmainstreamdamsonfishproductionbasinwide
Cambodiaisthecountrymostexposedtofishlosses,andLaoPDRthecountryleastexposed(Figure45).
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Figure45:Capturefishproductionatriskineachcountryifallmainstreamdamsarebuilt
DamslocatedupstreamofVientianewouldhavelessimpactonfisheryresourcesthanthoselocatedfurther downstream. Lat Sua, Stung Treng and in particular Sambor dams would have the largest impact on fish production. The impacts on fisheries production varies for each project depending on: (i) distance from the majorMekongfloodplains,(ii)positioninrelationtotheimportanttributariesoftheMekongBasin.
12.2.4 CHANGESINRESERVOIRFISHPRODUCTION
Reservoirfisheriescannotcompensateforthelossincapturefisheriesandwouldproduce~1/10thofthelost capturefisheriesproduction.ThetotalannualreservoirfishproductionfortheentireLowerMekongBasin wouldrangebetween25,000250,000tonnes,themostlikelyscenariobeing63,000tonnesofreservoirfish peryearorabout11%oftheminimumlossof600,000tonnes/yrfromcapturefisheries(Figure46). Figure46:Reservoirfishproductioncomparedtocapturefishproductionatriskfromdamdevelopment: orangebarrepresentslossesexpectedwithoutLMBmainstreamdams;yellowbarrepresentslosseswithLMB mainstreamdams
LMBmainstreamreservoirsarepredictedtocollectivelyproduce10,000tonnesoffishperyear,thebest casescenariobeingintheorderof30,000tonnesperyear.Reservoirproductivityisinfluencedbyi)surface area;ii)storagevolumesinthesuperficiallayersofdam;iii)connectivitytoupstreamtributaries. Damsincascadescanreducetheproductivityofreservoirfisheriesbycreatingabarriertoupstream migrationofreservoirspeciestowardstributaries.Connectivityallowsnativefishstilllivinginreservoirsto
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migratetowardstheirbreedinggroundsinupstreamtributaries.Lossofupstreamconnectivitybyadditional damconstructionreducesdownstreamreservoirproductivity. Sambor,StungTreng,PakChomandXayaburidamprojectsdisplaythegreatestpotentialofallLMB mainstreamprojectsforreservoirfishproduction(Figure47).Therelationshipbetweenreservoirsurfacearea andvolumeisthekeyparameterinfluencingtheproductivityofreservoirfisheries.TheLMBmainstreamdams createlongelongatedreservoirslargelyconfinedtothemainchannelandsohavelimitedfisherypotential.
Figure47:Reservoirfishproductionexpectedfromthe11mainstreamprojects
AquaculturecancomplementtheMekongcapturefisheriessectorbutcannotreplaceitintermsoffood security.AquaculturehasshownrapidgrowthinallLMBcountriesbutdoesnotsignificantlycontributeto ruralfoodsecurityinripariancountries.Intensiveaquaculture(e.g.VietNam)producesfishforexportand incomebutisnotaccessibletothepoor,extensiveaquaculture(e.g.Cambodia)feedslocalpeoplebutisnot veryproductive.Thissectorisdependenton:(i)investment,(ii)land/watermanagement,and(iii)capture fisheriesforfeed(allcountries)andjuveniles(Cambodiainparticular).Withmanagementformultipleuse,the LMBmainstreamprojectscouldprovideinvestmentandwaterresourcesforcontinuedgrowthinaquaculture; howevertheseprojectswouldalsoreducetheproductivityofcapturefisheries,diminishingthesupplyoffeed totheaquaculturesector.
12.2.5 MEKONGMARINEFISHERY
MekongmarinefisheriesareaproductivecomponentoftheMekongsystemandaredependentonthe nutrientandsedimentdynamicsoftheriver.TheMekongmarinefisheryisasignificantcomponentofthe Vietnamesedeltaeconomy,withaproductionintheorderof500,000726,000tonnesperyearandutilising almost6,000fishingboats.Aconservativeestimateofthenutrientinputstothecoastalzonerepresentan approximate100Mtofsedimentsand16,000tonnesofattachednutrientswhicharedepositedbythe Mekongplumeintheshallownearcoastalshelfofthedelta.TheChinesemainstreamandLMBtributarydams willinducea50%reductioninthearrivalofsedimentsandnutrientstothecoastalzoneby2030.The mainstreamdamswouldbedirectlyresponsibleforanadditional50%reductionreducingtheannualloading to27Mt/yofsedimentsand4,500t/yofnutrientstothemarineenvironment. Sedimentretentionbydamsisexpectedtohaveamajorimpactoncoastalfishproduction,and subsequentlyontheVietnamesefishingsectorandfishtrade.Thiswouldalsoimpactthedeltaaquaculture sectorwhichisdependentonproteinfrommarinetrashfishtofeedtheaquaculturefishforfeedstock.
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Figure48:RegionaloverviewoffisherylossesduetoLMBmainstreamdams
LAOUPSTREAMCLUSTER
Biodiversity:262fishspecies(22% endemics),41speciesspecificallyat riskfrommainstreamdams, includingthecriticallyendangered Mekonggiantcatfish. Riskofcapturefishproduction losses(veryconservativeestimates): 270,000600,000t/yrcomparedto 2000;120,000t/yrcomparedto 2015;60,000t/yrcomparedto2030 withoutdams. Reservoirfishproductionpotential: 7,000tonnesperyear(errorrange 2,00020,000).
LAOMIDDLECLUSTER
Biodiversity:386fishspecies(29% endemics).Majorchangesexpected (48%oftheriverupstreamturned intoreservoirs)butthespecific impactofmainstreamdamson biodiversitycouldnotbequantified. Riskofcapturefishproduction losses(upstream+middlecluster): 350,000680,000t/yrcomparedto 2000;200,000t/yrcomparedto 2015;140,000t/yrcomparedto2030 withoutdam Reservoirfishproductionpotential: 330tonnesperyear(errorrange300 3,000)
LAODOWNSTREAM& CAMBODIANCLUSTER
Biodiversity:669fishspecies(14% endemics),majorchangeson biodiversity(55%oftheriver upstreamturnedintoreservoirs). Riskofcapturefishproduction losses(allclusterstogether): 550,000880,000t/yrcomparedto 2000;400,000t/yrcomparedto 2015;340,000t/yrcomparedto2030 withoutdams Reservoirfishproductionpotential: 4,700tonnesperyear(errorrange 2,00019,000)
FISHMIGRATIONS
Fishmigrationsfrom floodplains(feeding)to upstreamtributaries (breeding).Minimumofa thirdofthebiomassof Mekongfishismadeoflong distancemigrants.
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Howeverthetimescalesandextentofthedeclineremainunknownbecausethemarinefisheryispoorly studiedandlittleunderstood. Experiencefromotherdamsandcoastalfisheriesworldwideindicatethatsedimentretentionbydamscan haveasignificantimpactoncoastalfishproduction.Howeveragriculturaldevelopmentandurbanizationare alternativesourcesofphosphates,organicmatterandotherfertilisers.Athoroughanalysisofexpected nutrientinputsfromtheseanthropogenicsourcesandtheirpositiveimpactoncoastalfisheriesremainstobe undertaken.
12.2.6 FOODSECURITY
Lossininlandfishproductionwouldhavemajorimplicationsforfoodsecuritygiventhedependencyofthe LMBregiononfishasasourceofprotein.300,000tonnesoffishlostinCambodiawouldrepresent150%of thecurrenttotallivestockproduction;30,000tonnesoffishlostinLaoPDRwouldrepresentathirdofthe currentproteinsupplyofthecountry(ThailandandVietNam,wherethelivestocksectorismoredeveloped, wouldloselessthan5%each).Theimpactofsuchpotentiallossesoffishproteinonhealthandpovertyin CambodiaandLaoPDRhasnotbeenassessed.Conversely,itisunclearhowmuchtime,land,forageand irrigationwouldbeneededtoachieveenoughgrowthinthelivestocksectorsothatfishproteinlostcanbe replacedwithmeatprotein. Fromafoodsecurityperspective,replacingcapturefisheriesproductionbyaquacultureproductionisnot realistic,because: theaquaculturesectordependslargelyoncapturefisheriesforfeed(highvalueaquaculturefish beingmostlycarnivoresfedwithprocessedcapturefishmeat); intensiveaquaculturerequiresalotofinvestmentandtargetshighvaluemarkets;itcontributesto exportsandGDPbutusuallynottoruralfoodsecurity; extensiveaquaculturecontributesusefullytolocalfoodsecurity,povertyalleviationandlivelihood diversificationbutisnotveryproductive; atthenationalscale,producingonetonneofaquaculturefishrequiresland,feed,maintenance,time, andisultimatelymuchmorecostlythancatchingonetonneoffishfromthewildwhenthisgoodis naturallypresent(replacementcostismuchhigherthanprotectioncost).
13 SOCIALSYSTEMS
13.1 BASELINE 13.1.1 POVERTY,ETHNICGROUPS&NATURALRESOURCEBASEDLIVELIHOODS
ImpressivestepsmadebyLMBcountriestomeetMDGgoalsinpovertyreduction,butregressioninkey areas.Between1990and2009ThailandandVietNamreducedtheirundernourishedpopulationsbymore than50%,whileCambodiaandLaoPDRachievedathirdreduction.Educationallevelsimproved,asdidoverall healthstatistics.However,MDGmonitoringreportsalsoindicatethataboutonethirdofMDG'smeasurable trendsshowslowornoprogressatall.CambodiaevenshowsregressiononUnderweightChildren(Goal1) andChildMortality(Goal4),whileLaoPDRshowsregressiononthepercentageofthepopulationlivingonless than$1aday(Goal1),andVietNamonHIV/AIDSprevalence(Goal6). Increasedvulnerabilityofruralpopulationsasallcountriesshowcontinuednaturalresourcedepletion/ contamination,coupledwithveryhighlivelihooddependenceofallLMBcountries(Thailandlessso)onriver andlandresources,particularlyamongethnicminorities.Whenlivelihoodsaredisruptedornaturalresource dependentcommunitiesareincreasinglyremovedfromtraditionallivelihoodsources,thentheincidenceof stunting,wastingandotherdiseasesassociatedwithpoverty,increasesasthefoodchainisdisruptedorcut off.Dependenceonwildfoods,includingaquaticspecies,isextremelyimportantforbothfoodsecurityand
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nutritionalintake,andcannotbeeasilysubstitutedbymeatfromlivestockduetoproblemsofstorage, transport,landavailabilitytoraiselivestock,andcostsofmaintainingdomesticanimals. ThecountriesoftheLMBshowarichethnicdiversity,withmanydistinctethnicgroupsspeakingmany languagesanddialects.Cambodiahasanestimated36minoritygroups,comprisingsome4%ofthe population,whileThailandownsto9mainethnicminoritiescomprisinganestimated1.22%ofthepopulation. LaoPDRandVietNamhavethegreatestrepresentationofethnicgroupsintheirpopulations,with48groups and47.5%ofthepopulationinLaoPDR,and54groupsaccountingforsome14%ofthepopulationinVietNam Nationalrevenuesfromhydropowerareincreasing,butthelinkbetweenrevenuegenerationandpoverty alleviationinallLMBcountriesisyettobedemonstrated.RegionalstudiesoftheLMBhydropowersector bytheWorldBankhaveshownthatthereisnonecessaryconnectionbetweenhydropowerdevelopmentand povertyreduction.However,NamTheun2(NT2),withconsiderablesupportbyinternationalfinancing organisationsanddetailedscrutinybyarangeofinternationalorganisations,hasshownpromisingresults.The projectservestohighlightthesignificantinstitutionalandfinancialcapacitydevelopmentrequiredbyLMB countriesifthehydropowersectoristocontributetopovertyalleviation.
13.1.2 HEALTH&NUTRITION
Statusofhealthissuesrelatedtopoverty,populationmovementandwaterresourcemanagementvaryin differentLMBcountries. Diseasetransmissioniscloselyassociatedwithpoornutrition,lackofpotablewatersources,andpoor environmentalsanitation.Thespreadofregionalroadnetworksandincreaseinmigrationandhuman traffickingthroughouttheLMBaddsanotherdimensionwhichisimportantforthetransmissionofsometypes ofdisease. ThestatusoftheseissuesintheLMBisdirectlyassociatedwith(i)easeofaccesstoadequatehealth infrastructureandpersonnel;(ii)drainageandcleanwaterresourcemanagementwithitsassociatedhealth andsanitationconsequences;(iii)knowledgeandawarenesslevels,whichmaybeassociatedwithrelative vulnerabilitytofoodinsecurity;and(iv)accesstofreesourcesofhighnutritionalvaluefromnaturalresources, suchasfish,nontimberforestproducts,andwildgame.Stuntingandwastingarecharacteristicsof malnutritionmorecommoninLaoPDRandCambodiathaninThailandandVietNam,affectingbothlife expectancyaswellaschildren'shealth. PublicexpenditureonhealthinallLMBcountriesisuneven,andwhileThailandhasremovedcleanwater supplyandsanitationfromitsMDGtargets(havingachievedthisby2007),theotherLMBcountriesretainthe targetandhavesomewaytogobeforeachievingit.Somehealthandnutritionissuescanbeaddressedby improvedfinancialresourceallocation,butothersareassociatedwitheaseofaccesstothenaturalresource baseandotherproductiveresources.
13.1.3 RESETTLEMENT
LMBcountriesshownumerouspolicyandproceduralgapsinlandacquisitionandcompensationcompared tointernationalbestpractice.Lackofconsistentnationalortransboundarymitigationframeworkspresent challengestoachievingpolicyequityinprojectimplementation,whilelimitedhumancapacityand/orpolitical willtoeffectivelymonitordevelopersandrequirethemtosatisfactorilymeetpolicycommitments,remain obstaclestosociallyequitableresettlementpractice.Keyissuesinclude: TendencytoapprovehydropowerprojectswithoutsatisfactoryEIAs,lackofbaselines,and unsatisfactoryimplementationprocedures. Hydropowerdevelopersnotallocatingsufficientbudgetsforsocialandenvironmentalsafeguards untilprojectisoperationalandgeneratingrevenue,wellafterimpactsarefelt. Limitednationalcapacitytoundertakesocialandenvironmentalplanningandmonitoringof hydropowerprojectsortoenforcenationalstandards.
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Landexpropriationpracticesthroughforceddisplacementandconcessionsawardsalreadycausing communitiestolosenaturalresourcelivelihoodbase.
Though the Mekong riparian communities vary remarkably in terms of ethnicity, poverty, level of development,socialstructuresandeconomicbase,theyallshareanoverwhelmingdependenceonthenatural resourcesofMekongfortheirlivelihoods.Some29.6millionpeopleliveandworkwithin15kmoftheMekong RiverthroughouttheLMB.Ofthese,2.1millionarelocalripariancommunitieslivingwithin5kmoftheriver whoareexpectedtobemostatrisktothedirectandindirectimpactsoftheLMBmainstreamdams. Of critical concern in the social assessment of opportunities and risks is the equity of division of impacts amongstMekongcommunities.TheadverseimpactsofthemainstreamprojectsonMekongsocialsystemsis theculminationofdirectimpactstothelandandwaterwaysofacommunity,theirvulnerabilitytochangeand thelevelofsupportofferedbyLMBgovernments.Ontheotherhand,thepositiveimpactsofthemainstream projects largely depend on the governments capacity to share benefits across sectors, provinces and socio economicdivides. TheimpactonMekongripariancommunitiesdependsontheirlocationinrelationtotheLMBmainstream dams. In the SEA direct impacts relate to three distinct zones in relation to the hydropower dam and its reservoir: 1. 2. Reservoirs zones: the creation of reservoirs would inundate significant proportions of village and agriculturallandforcingmanycommunitiestorelocatetohigherlandorotherprovinces. Damsite:thedamsandsupportingaccessroadsandinfrastructurewouldalsocausethelossofland and requirements for resettlement, in addition, during the construction phase the large influx of migrantworkerswouldhavemajorrepercussionsonthehostcommunities.Somewouldbepositive suchasanincreasedeconomicstimulusfortheserviceindustry,andotherswouldbenegativesuchas theproliferationofSTDsandotherhealthrisks Downstream: downstream of the dam sites, communities would be affected by changes to water levelsandthegeomorphologyoftheriverwhichwouldhaveknockonimpactsforsafety,agriculture, fisheriesandbankstability.
3.
13.2.1 PEOPLEDIRECTLYAFFECTED
Preliminaryoverallestimatesoftotalpeopledirectlyaffectedamountto106,942.Theseestimatesare conservativeandwouldlikelyrisegivenmoredetailedinformationfromdevelopersandfromResettlement Plans.PakBeng,LuangPrabang,PakLay,StungTrengandSamboraccountforthemajorityofthedirectly affectedpopulations. TheUpperLaocascadeof6damswilldirectlyaffectthelargestnumberofpeopleofallZones,totallingan estimated76,290people,themajorityofwhomareethnicminoritiesinLaolivingbelowthepovertylineand highlydependentonthenaturalresourcebase. ResettlementisthelargestdirectimpactfacingMekongcommunitiesaffectingaminimumof63,112people or~60%ofthosedirectlyaffected.Sambor,LuangPrabangandStungTrengaccountformostoftherequired resettlement(Table24;figure48).
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Table24:PreliminarytotalsofpeopledirectlyaffectedbytheMekongmainstreamdams
Total Affected Villages 57 36 29 27 10 2 4 0 4 0 21 NA 190 Total Affected HHs 6,831 2,516 1,988 1,079 800 107 187 NA 14 0 2,059 1020 16601 Total Affected Persons 35,365 12,966 4,378 19,046 4,000 535 935 NA 66 0 10,617 19034 106942 Number of Number of Number of Resettled Resettled Resettled Villages HHs Persons 28 36 10 16 10 2 4 NA 4 0 21 NA 131 774 2516 391 NA 800 107 186 NA 14 0 2,059 NA 6847 6,700 12,966 2,130 6,129 4,000 535 935 NA 66 0 10,617 19034 63112
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
DamName Pakbeng(1) LouangPrabang(2) Xayaboury(3) PakLay(4) Sanakham(2) PakChom(2) BanKoum(2) LatSua(2) DonSahong(2) Thakho(2) StungTreng(2) Sambor(2)
PreliminaryTotals
DataSources:NA=NotAvailable.
* indicates figures from 1994 study by Compagnie Nationale du Rhone, Acres International Ltd. & Mekong SecretariatStudyteam.NoupdatedinformationavailabletoSEA 1. Data from Initial Environmental Examination (IEE), Pak Beng Hydropower Project, Lao PDR, December 2008,Earthsystems,Norconsult&SEAInceptionReport,Vol.2,ProjectProfiles 2.SEAInceptionReport,Vol.2,ProjectProfiles 3. Final Report, Social Impact Assessment of Xayabouri Hydroelectric Power Project, Lao PDR, August 2008, TeamConsultingEngineering&ManagementCo.Ltd.,Ch.KarnchangPublicCompanyLtd.&SEAInception 4. Initial Environmental Examination (IEE), Pak Lay Hydropower Project, Lao PDR, June 2008, Earthsystems, Norconsult, CEIEC & Sinohydro Joint Venture. Figures taken are for the maximum impacts downstream option.
13.2.2 PEOPLEINDIRECTLYAFFECTED
More than 2 million people in 47 districts living within the head ponds, dam sites and immediately downstream of the 11 LMB mainstream projects are at highest risk of indirect impacts from the LMB mainstreamprojects. Indirect impacts are also likely to affect those people living or working within access (i.e. 15kms) of the Mekongmainstream,itstributariesandwetlands,butwhoarenotexpectedtoberesettled,ortoloseland orhousing: 29.6millionpeopleareatriskina15kmMekongimpactcorridorinLaoPDR,Thailand&Cambodia 14millionpeople(13,849,801)areatriskofindirectimpactsintheVietnamesedelta Poor management of dams and erratic water releases would increase numbers of affected people, e.g.anadditional76,368populationinPakseatriskofLatSuaorBanKoumfailures
Local riparian communities are normally the most exposed to indirect impacts, namely district populations withina5kmreachoftheMekongmainstream.Cumulativeimpactsmaytakesometimetomakethemselves known,e.g.erosionintheVietnamesedeltaandconsequencesforagriculturallydependenthouseholds.Also, if health/drainage/sanitation programmes are not implemented adequately by developers, there would be highernumbersofpeopleaffected.
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Figure49:PercentageofdistrictpopulationsdirectlyaffectedbytheLMBmainstreamdams
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Table 25 and Figure 50 provide details of the potential for individual projects to have indirect effects on people. Table25:Potentialindirectimpactofmainstreamprojectsonpeople
Mainstream project PakBeng Indirectimpactsandpeopleaffected 223,659people:hasthehighestpotentialtoadverselyaffectthepoorandwillaffectthehighest proportionofdistrictpopulations(15.8%).7outofthe8districtsimpactedareclassifiedaspooror verypoor 588,189people:PakChomwillhavethelargestimpactofanydamonthesurroundingcommunities (Figure45).. Willindividuallyaffectbetween160,000280,000people Wouldaffect8.1%oftotalaffecteddistrictpopulation. 6.7%oftotalaffecteddistrictpopulation 2.5%oftotalaffecteddistrictpopulation 2.1%oftotalaffecteddistrictpopulation 0.1%ofdistrictpopulations 668,300people:Willdirectlyaffectonlyasmallnumberofpeople(~1,000),butlargenumberindirectly 250,217people:LikeBanKoum,theprojectwillhaveminordirectsocialimpacts(<100people)but significantindirectimpacts.Hasthesmallestreservoirfootprintofallmainstreamdams. 197,936people:TheCambodianprojectswilldominatethedirectsocialimpactsandhavesignificant indirectimpacts
PakChom AllotherUpper Laoprojects LuangPrabang PakLay Sanakham Xayabori PakChom BanKoum&Lat Sua DonSahong Samborand StrungTreng
Figure50:Preliminarytotalsofindirectlyaffectedpopulations
13.2.3 EQUITY
TheLMBmainstreamdamswouldmakeruralcommunitiesmorevulnerablebyreducingtheproductivityof the natural resource on which their livelihoods depend. All LMB Mekong countries have a high livelihood dependencyonwaterandlandresourcesthehighestinLaoPDR,thelowestinThailand.Themostvulnerable arethosewithlowoccupationalorincomesourcediversity.Particularly: Inlocationswithhighlevelsofpoverty(e.g.LaodistrictsinZone2;Cambodianfishingcommunitiesin Stung Treng and Tonle Sap; Vietnamese agriculturally/fisheriesdependent communities in the MekongDelta)
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ThehighproportionofalreadypoorethnicminoritiesinZones2&4whomayexperiencedifficultyin adjustingtoneweconomicstructures Thepoor&ethnicgroupsalreadyrelocatedorlosinglandbeforethemainstreamprojectsandwould loseasecondorpotentiallyathirdtime(Zones2&4) Thereisaninequitabledistributionofimpactamongfarmers:Thosepeoplelosingagriculturallandwouldnot bethesamepeoplewhowouldbenefitfromimprovedirrigationopportunities.Theprojectsfavourmedium andlargeirrigationschemes,whilethelossofagriculturalareawouldbefeltbesmallplotfarmholders.
13.2.4 MULTIPLERELOCATION
Somemainstreamprojectswouldresultinvillagesbeingdisplacedforthefourthtimein15years.Repeated compulsoryrelocationwithinarelativelyshortperiodoftimeisoneofthemostimpoverishingactsthatcan occurtocommunitiesgiventherapidpaceofhydropowerdevelopment.Someethnicminoritycommunities havealreadybeenrelocatedonceortwiceinthepreceding10years(e.g.aHmongvillageinPakBengimpact zone),andarealreadyamongthemostdisadvantagedintermsofpovertylevelsandpoorsocialconditions. HouseholdsinBanHouayXong,Nandistrict,potentiallyaffectedbytheXayaburihydropowerproject,were movedfromtheuplandstothelowlandsinthemid1990'sbutplacedintoanareawhichfrequentlyflooded, andafter7yearswereobligedtorelocatethemselvestwicewithnooutsideassistancetotryandreestablish theirvillageandlivelihoodsagain. TheriskofdoublejeopardyforbothdirectlyandindirectlyaffectedpeopleinStungTrengandKratieis extremelyhigh,giventhatthenumberofpoorhasbeenincreasedbyprevailinglandsequestrationpractice forcommercialconcessions.StungTrengisreportedtohavethehighestleveloflevelofcompulsoryland sequestrationfordistributiontoconcessionsholders.
13.2.5 ASSESSMENTBYPROJECTGROUP
UPPERLAOPROJECTS(PAKBENGPAKCHOM) The6projectsinUpperLao(upstreamofVientiane)wouldaffect10provincesand32districtsinThailand andLaoPDR.Zonalpopulationtotalsjustover1.3millionpeople(1,351,350),ofwhich77%isrural.62The majorityofdirectlyaffectedpopulationisLao,manyethnicminoritieslivingbelowthepovertylineandhighly dependentonthenaturalresourcebase.NofiguresfordirectlyaffectedpeopleinThailandareavailableat thistime. This cascade of 6 dams would directly affect the largest number of people of all Zones, totalling an estimated 76,290 people. An estimated total63 of 8,418.5has of agricultural land and 6,523has of forests includingspiritforestwouldbelostinZone2.Culturalartefacts,suchascemeteriesandtempleswouldalso belost.ImpactsonfisheriesmayresultinlossofculturaleventsassociatedwiththeMekongRiver'slife,such as the Giant Mekong Catfish festival in Chiang Khong, which is dependent on the survival of the species. Replacement agricultural land is very scarce and may result in communities clearing more areas, risking increased erosion in turn leading to additional unexpected relocation. The zone would see a loss of river basedlivelihoods. Projects in districts with higher incidences of poverty would have a more severe impact than in relatively prosperousdistricts.PakBenghasthehighestpotentialtoadverselyaffectthepoor.Thisdamwouldaffect 8Laodistricts,ofwhich7areofficiallyclassifiedaspoororverypoor.PakBengwouldalsodirectlyaffecta muchhigherproportionofdistrictpopulationthananyotherdaminZone2,at15.8%.LuangPrabangwould
62 63
AllZonalpopulationfiguresinthissectionaretakenfromMRCTechnicalPaperNo.30,SIMVA,March2010,Table5 Thesefiguresareminimumtotalsasofthisreport'sdate.AlllandacquisitiondataisdrawnfromprojectspecificIEEsor fromSEAteamquestionnairestodevelopers.Twodevelopersdidnotcompletetheestimateforlandacquisition. Estimatesofacquiredlandprovidedbydevelopersonlyrelatetothosedirectlyaffectedbyrelocation,anddonotinclude landacquisitionforassociatedfacilitiessuchasaccessroads,transmissionlines,etc.Totallandlossmaythusbehigher.
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affect8.1%oftotalaffecteddistrictpopulations,andPakLay6.7%,Sanakham2.5%,Xayaburi2.1%,andPak Chomanestimated0.1%ofdistrictpopulation. TheUpperLaoCascadewouldhavebothpositiveandnegativeimpactsonfoodsecurity.Foodsecurityisa seriousconcernformanyripariancommunities.InZone2levelsupto100%ofthepopulationinsomedistricts would suffer food insecurity for more than 6months of the year (Figure 51). In some areas with larger irrigation potential (near the Vientiane plain) additional investment in pumping infrastructure would allow communities to increase the productivity of farm areas having a positive impact on food security. In the remaining areas of Zone 2, the mainstream dams would adversely impact the natural resource base for livelihoods,exacerbatingissuesoffoodsecurity. Figure51:Lao&Thaicasestudydistricts:percentagefamiliesexperiencingfoodinsecurityformorethan6 monthsa
Khong Chiam Zone 3 Khong Pakse Med Chiang Khong Paklay Zone 2 Sayaboury Nan Pakbeng Paktha 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
year The upper Lao cascade would also have some positive benefits, particularly in the larger and more prosperouspopulationsinthevicinityoftheVientianeplainwhoaredependentonfixedriparianagriculture andfisheriesandhavebetterurbanaccessandmarketconnectivity. Infrastructureaccess:The6mainstreamdamswouldimprovetheroadandtransportinfrastructure aswellaselectricitysupplyinthesecommunities Improvedirrigationopportunities:projectslikePakChomhavehighirrigationpotentialsandwithinvestment insuitablepumpingequipmentcouldleadtoimprovedagriculturalincomes MIDDLE&LOWERLAOPROJECTS(BANKOUMTHAKHO) ThethreeprojectsinthemiddleandlowerLaoclusterswoulddirectlyaffectsmallpopulations(intheorder ofafewthousand).Themajordirectimpactwouldberesettlementofpeoplelivingwithinthereservoirzone oftheBanKoumandLatSuaproject.BanKoumisestimatedtodirectlyaffect0.6%ofdistrictpopulations. CommunitiesarealmostentirelyofLaoandThaiLaoethnicity. ThethreeprojectswouldhavesomeofthelargestindirectimpactsontheMekongsocialsystem,affecting almost1millionpeoplebetweenthem: Livelihoodswouldbeadverselyaffectedbyreducedconnectivity.Thereisalsotherealriskofdaily fluctuations in water levels which would make it increasingly difficult for small craft to navigate safely.TransportationisavitalcomponenttocommunitylivelihoodswithinZone3,manysmallcraft ownersearntheirlivingfromnavigatingwithinnationalriversystems,aswellasacrosstheMekong itself.
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Permanentandseasonallossofriverbankgardensduetoincreasedflowregimeswithassociated impacts on livelihoods. Riverbank land in this Zone is highly productive and intensively cultivated. RiparianlandinthisZoneisamongthemostexpensiveandproductiveinbothThailandandLaoPDR anditwouldbedifficulttofindcomparablerelocationsitesforaffectedhouseholds.Thetwodams wouldacquire1,667.6haofagriculturalland,ofwhich332haisirrigated. NosignificantimpactsareexpectedonculturalorhistoricsitesinZone3,thoughriversidetemples andsacredtreesareatriskfromincreasederosion Increased safety risks for towns & communities up and downstream The population at risk in Pakseis76,368,withapopulationdensityof611personspersquarekm:theBanKoumandLatSua sites mark the transition zone to the floodplain areas of Siphandone. Backwaters from Lat Sua in event of failure of floodgate opening could result in flooding in Pakse with consequent loss of life, propertyandassets.TheextentandrapiditywithwhichgatesmaybeopenedatBanKoumwould alsoaffectbothlivelihoodsandsafetyinPakse. Elevated groundwater levels benefits domestic water supply, risks water logging & increased vectordisease(Zone3&Zone4) Lossincapturefisherieswouldhaveasevereimpactonlocallivelihoodsgiventhehighdependence oncommercialandsubsistencefisheriesinthiszone. ForallLaoprojects,therelocationofvalleycommunitiestouplandareaswouldhavecomplexsynergistic effectsonbothfoodsecurityanddisasterthreats.ExperienceintheLancangcatchmenthasshownthatthe customary lifestyles of ethnic minority communities has seen relocated groups move further uphill slopes rather than sever their attachment with customary lands and livelihoods methods. Subsequent clearing of steeperhillslopeshasleadtoincreasederosionandgreaterrisksoflandslides.Thesemigrationtrendshave beenobservedinChinaandareexpectedfornorthernLaoPDR.Thisismorelikelyifdevelopersoptforacash compensationapproachtoresettlement. CAMBODIANPROJECTS(STUNGTRENG&SAMBOR) StungTrengandSamborwouldcreateasituationofextremecrisisforthepopulationsofaffectedprovinces, and could provoke an emergency food security situation for the poor. These two dams have the highest potential to seriously worsen the incidence of poverty in Cambodia. All reports on LMB food security acknowledge that rice sufficiency (through cultivating or purchase) is a primary way in which communities definefoodsecurity. StungTrengat17.5%andSamborat13.1%ofdistrictpopulationswouldhavethehighestdirectimpactson thelargestpercentageofaffecteddistrictpopulationsthananyoftheother12dams,withtheexceptionof PakBeng.Some30,000CambodianswouldberesettledasadirectconsequenceofSamborandStungTreng dams. This is particularly worrying for Cambodia, as these two dams would have a proportionately higher impactonthepoorinthetwoprovincesofStungTrengandKratie,bothofwhichhavethehighestpoverty ratesinthecountryat46%each. Morethan1millionfisheriesdependentpeoplecouldlosetheirlivelihoods,includingintheTonleSapwhere an estimated 14% of surveyed households defined their main occupation as fishing, but where the vast majorityofitspopulationderivessecondaryorassociatedlivelihoods,aswellassubsistence,fromfisheries. Fisheries losses would disproportionately affect the poor: poor households have a higher dependenceonfisheriesthanbetteroffhouseholds,withfisheriescontributingmorethan30%more ofpoorhouseholds'incomethanofbetteroffhouseholds. Fisheries losses would disproportionately affect minority groups: the Cham (Muslim Khmer) is almost totally dependent on fisheries for their livelihoods, and as such, have developed a range of fishery skills and knowledge superior to other ethnic groups. They tend to be seminomadic, travellingtoStungTrengwiththeonsetoftherainyseason.
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Tourismrelatedlivelihoodsmaybeadverselyaffectedbylossesinsometourismsectorswhoseethenatural beautyoflocationsaswellasinteractionswiththerareIrrawaddyDolphin.Tourismisanimportantlivelihood contribution in the Stung Treng Ramsar site as well as at Khone Falls. However, other sectors may see enhancedtourismatdamsites.
14 NAVIGATION
IntheLMBnavigationismostsignificantforZone2andZone6oftheMekongRiver.
14.1 BASELINE 14.1.1 SUBSISTENCEUSERS

LocalcommunitiescontinuetousetheMekongRiverasanimportantmeansoftransport;linking communitiesandvillagesfortrade,socialandeconomicsmeans.Andforpoorruralcommunitiesboats provideanaffordableandeasilyaccessiblemeansoftransportwhichisenvironmentallyfriendly.Smallboats carryagriculturalproductstomarketsandprovideaccesstoschools,healthcareandothersocialservices. SubsistenceusersstillusetheMekongRiverfromPakBengtoPakChom(Zone2),BanKoumandLatSua(Zone 3)andStungTrengandSambor(Zone4). TherehasbeenadeclineinsmallandmediumusersfortransportontheMekongRiveroverthelastten yearswiththeimprovementofroadsandaccesstopublicroadtransportandprivatevehicles.Howeverthe MekongRiverisstillanimportantmeansoftransportationforalargenumberofripariancommunitiesand riverinepopulationgrowthcoupledwithincreasedagriculture/aquaculturewillcontinuecommunityreliance onrivertransport. Withoutmainstreamdams,therearenoforeseeablebarrierstolonghaulconnectivityofsubsistenceusers. TheincreasedwaterlevelsexpectedfromtributaryandUMBflowregulationmayimprovewilldryseason navigabilityinsomereaches,especiallyinZone2.
14.1.2 PASSENGERTRANSPORT
ZONE2:AnimportantnavigationactivityintheUpperMekonginLaoPDRispassengertransportand cruises.Passengertransporthasalwaysbeenchallengingduetorapidsandlowwaterlevels,andhasbeen restrictedtosmallslowboatswithshallowdraughttoaccommodatethelowwaterlevelsinthedry season.TheChinesegovernmenthasrecentlyagreedtoprovidetheGovernmentofLaoPDR(GoL)with15 millionUSDtofurtherimprovenavigationconditionsontheriverbetweenHoueiSayandLuangPrabang. CargooperationsinZone2hasdecreasedsignificantlyinLaoPDR,duetoroadconstructionandcompanies optingforroadinsteadofusingcargovesselsinthedangerousnavigationconditionsnorthofLuang Prabang.Thedomesticrivertradeispredominantlyagriculturalproducts,consumablesandartsandcrafts fromlocalcommunitiesforsaleinLuangPrabang. FreighttransportinothersectionsoftheUpperMekonginLaoPDRhasalsogonethroughadeclinein demandandtodayischaracterisedbylowproductivity.ThefastgrowthofminingactivitiesintheLaoPDR ontheotherhandwill,inmanycases,solelyrelyonrivertransportationtocarrylargequantitiesofmining productsandrawmaterials,mainlytoP.R.China TourismisoneofthefastestgrowingsectorsintheGreaterMekongSubregionandrivercruisesarea growingcomponentofthismarket.Between20,000and25,000touristcruisepassengerstraveltheupper Mekongeachyear(Zone1). ZONE3:Currently,downstreamofSavanakhetuptotheKhoneFallsnavigationisverylimited.The transportofpassengershasdeclinedinFlowZone3duetoimprovedroadsandtheopeningoftheSecond
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ThaiLaoFriendshipBridgefromMukdahantoSavannakhetin2006.Longhaultransportisnotexpectedto beasignificantfeatureinthiszone,especiallyforlargerscalecommercialtradebecausethezoneremains cutoffbytheKhonefallsinthesouth. ZONE4:ThepassengertrafficintoandoutofStungTrengporthasbeendeclininginrecentyearswithno predictedgrowthinpassengertransportoverthenext20years.Rivercruisesareanimportantandemerging useroftheewaterwaysbetweenPhnomPenhandKampongChamanduptoStungTrengwithprojectionsof continuedgrowthinthisusergroupto2030.
14.1.3 FREIGHTTRANSPORT
ZONE2:RiverregulatingworksbetweenJinghongChinaandChiangSaen,Thailandhasimprovedthe navigabilityoftheUpperMekongandresultedinincreasedtradebetweenthetwocountries. ThetotalvolumeofthefreighttrafficbetweenThailandandYunnanovertheMekongRiverincreased fromzero(2000)toabout260,000tonnesinthefiscalyearsof2006and2007. Thevolumeofthistradeisexpectedtoincreaseby811percentperyear.Thedevelopmentofthe ChiangSaenPortIIwillprovideevenfurtheropportunitiesforeconomicgrowthandtradebetween ThailandandChina.
CargooperationsinZone2hasdecreasedsignificantlyinLaoPDR,duetoroadconstructionandcompanies optingforroadinsteadofusingcargovesselsinthedangerousnavigationconditionsnorthofLuang Prabang. Thedomestictradeispredominantlyagriculturalproducts,consumablesandartsandcraftsfrom localcommunitiesforsaleinLuangPrabang. FreighttransportinothersectionsoftheUpperMekonginLaoPDRhasalsogonethroughadecline indemandandtodayischaracterisedbylowproductivity.
ZONE3:Thereisacleartrendoflimitedanddecliningfreighttransportduetoimprovedroadnetworks. IncreasednavigabilityfromtheseasonalregulatioNofflowsexpectedby2030mayreinvigorateplansforthe developmentofaMekongRiverportnetworkbetweenVientianeandSavannakhet.However,theKhoneFalls willcontinuetoserveasabarriertolonghaulfreighttransport. ZONE4:Freighttransportisexpectedtoshowmarginalratesofgrowthoverthenext20years(26%p.a.). Theintroductionofdomesticcementproductionindustrymayseethroughputreach12,00020,000 tonnes/yearby2020iftheriverchannelcanaccommodate200DWTvessels, ZONE5&6(PHNOMPENHTHESEA):RiverandseaportsintheMekongDeltaareoneofthemost significanttraderegionsinVietNam.IntheMekongDeltaalmost70percentofgoods;rice,construction materialsandconsumablesaretransportedbywater.
TheLMBmainstreamdamswouldchangethewaytheMekongRiverisusedforthetransportationofgoods andpeople. TheMekongDeltawillremainthemostimportantnavigationzonewithsomeofthehighestrivertransport usesandapproximately70%ofgoodtransportedthroughitswaterways.Thedeltaisvulnerableandsensitive toprojectedchangesinsedimenttransport(reductionsof~75%),andlikelythattherewillbeadetrimentto navigationinthisarea,becauseofdestabilizationofriverbanks,especiallynearports,fromdowncutting andbederosion.
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Intheupperreaches,someusers(largevesselsandtouristcruises)wouldbenefitfromtheimproved navigabilityprovidedbymorereliableandconsistentwaterdepthswhilstsomeothers(subsistenceusers) wouldsufferfromreducedlongitudinalandcrossborderconnectivityforsmallboats.Theconstructionof mainstreamdamsforhydropowerdamsprovidesanopportunitytoimprovethenavigabilityoftheMekong Riverbyprovidingmorereliableandconsistentwaterdepthsthatwouldfacilitatelargervesselcapacities.The opportunitiesassociatedwithincreasednavigabilityincludethepassageof1,000Tvesselsprovidingadequate shiplocksareincorporatedintothedesign.Thenumberofproposedprojectsandthesizeoftheshiplocks meanthatsmallandmediumuserswouldhavelessfreedomoftravelupanddowntheriverastheywould needtowaitforanumberofboatsbeforeacquiringpassagethroughashiplock.
14.2.1 CHANGESTONAVIGABILITY
ItispredominantlytheUpperLaocascadeof6projectswhichhasthepotentialtoimprovenavigabilityof theMekongRiver: The construction of the six mainstream projects between Pak Beng to Pak Chom could provide opportunitiesforthefuturedevelopmentofpassengerandfreighttransportfromVientiane,LaoPDRto Jinghong,China. Improvednavigabilityonlyresultsifthefullcascadeisdeveloped.Ifonlyoneorafewoftheproposed Hydropowerdamareconstructedthentherewouldonlybepartialaccessibilityandlimitedimprovements tonavigabilityforpassengertransportduetoshallowclearanceinthedryseason(Figure52). Improvednavigabilitydependsontheeffectiveandcoordinatedoperationoftheprojectsmorethan justshiplocks. Sediment build up behind the mainstream dams may impact on the navigational channel and the entrance to ship locks. A large volume of sediment is likely to accumulate along the length of the reservoirs.Thiswouldbemostpronouncedatthereservoirheadwaterswherelargedeltaicdepositsare expected to form in the medium term. These deposits would reduce the navigability and would likely requireexpensiveperiodicdredgingtomaintainyearroundnavigation. Theothermainstreamprojectswouldhaveaminorornoimpactonimprovednavigability: TheconstructionofthemainstreamsdamsinSamborandStungTrengcouldprovideopportunitiesforthe developmentofnavigationbetweenKhoneFallsandPhnomPenh. The construction of the mainstream dams in Ban Koum and Lat Sua would provide only limited opportunitiesfordevelopingnavigation. Improved rivercargo transport does not preclude the need for good rail and road connections and shouldbeconsideredaspartofawideimprovementoftransportandportfacilities.
14.2.2 CHANGESTOLONGITUDINALCONNECTIVITY
Theconstructionandoperationofmainstreamdamspresentsathreattosmallandmediumscalelonghaul andcrossborderrivertransportationontheMekongRiver. Decreasedconnectivitywoulddisproportionatelynegativelyaffectsmallboatsandsubsistenceusersof theMekongRiverwhomayneedtowaitforthearrivalofalargevesselbeforeaccessthroughshiplocks ismadeavailable; DecreasedconnectivitywouldbeanegativeimpactofthesixmainstreamdamsbetweenPakBengto PakChomforpassengertransportifsuitablelocksarenotoperationalandmaintainedeffectively; Transport for freight, passenger and subsistence users would be impeded during the construction of LMBmainstreamdamsontheMekongRiver; Costoftransportmayincreaseforallusersiftheyarerequiredtopayfeesforusingshiplocks.
14.2.3 CHANGESTOSEAACCESS&DELTANAVIGATION
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TheimpactsoftheLMBmainstreamdamsonthetransportroutebetweenPhnomPenhandthesearemains unclear.Decreasedsedimentloadswouldincreasebankinstabilitybutwouldalsodecreasetheneedfor extensivedredgingatthemouthoftheMekongRiver.Howtheopportunitiesandrisksoftheseantagonistic forcescombinerequiresmoredetailedstudy.
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Figure52:UpperLaoPDRcascadeLongitudinalprofileofLeastAvailableDepths(LAD)usingupdateddeveloperoperatingwaterlevels
Longitudinal Profile of Least Available Depths (LAD) of the Mekong River between Golden Triangle and Vientiane
370.00 365.00 360.00 355.00 350.00 345.00 340.00 335.00 330.00 325.00 320.00 315.00 310.00 305.00 300.00 295.00 290.00 285.00 280.00 275.00 270.00
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15 CLIMATECHANGE
Climatechangeaddsanadditionallayerofriskanduncertaintyinlongtermplanningpotentiallywithboth positiveandnegativeimpactsonthedevelopmentofhydropowerinthebasin.Forhydropower development,themostimportantpredictedchangesaffectthehydrologicalregime.Allclimatechange predictionsfortheMekongBasinagreethattherewouldbesubstantialchangestorunoff,riverdischargeand flooding,includingby2050: Arangeof15%to21%increaseintheannualrunoffvaryingbysubcatchment, Arangeof9%to22%increaseinriverflowtakingintoaccounttheUMBandLMBmainstreamand tributarydams, Anincreaseintheincidencedepthanddurationofextremeeventscoupledwithanincreaseinthe overalldisparitybetweenwetanddryseasons
15.1 BASELINE 15.1.1 HYDROMETROLOGICALTRENDS

CURRENT&PASTTRENDS:Already,climatechangesintheMekongregionareinfluencingecosystems, livelihoodsanddevelopmentthroughchangesinregularweatheri.e.daily,seasonalandannualpatterns andthroughirregularextremeevents.Overthepast3to5decades,trendsofincreasingmeanannual temperaturehavebeenrecordedineachLMBcountry.Mostnotableistheincreaseinvariabilityfromone yeartothenext.Thetrendsinrainfallarelessconsistentwithincreasingvariabilityandextremesbetween wetanddryinLaoPDRandCambodia,adecreaseinrainfallinThailand,anddecreasesinmostlocalitiesinthe northofVietNamwithincreasesinmostareasoftheSouthduringallseasons.Allcountrieshaveexperienced decreasingrainfallduringthedryseasonwithaggravateddroughtandwaterstresssituationsinmany catchments. Figure53:ClimateChangeimpactsontheMekongRiverhydrographcomparedtoYear2000:(top)Chiang Saen;(bottom)Kratie
120
Futureclimateto2030isprojectedtoincludesteadyincreasesinmeanbasintemperatureby0.8C.Greater increasesareexpectedinnorthernzonesofthebasinupto1.4CinYunnanProvince.Annualrainfallwould increaseby13.5%(0.2m)mainlyduetoincreasesduringthewetseason(MaytoOct).Dryseasonrainfallwill increaseinnorthernzones(1and2)anddecreaseinsouthernzones(3to6i.e.fromVientianetotheDelta). Theoveralldisparitybetweenwetanddryseasonswillincreaseespeciallyinzones3to6. 20302039isprojectedtohaveanmeanincreaseinannualflowof~23%inZone2,droppingtoan increaseof~15%inzones3to5(Figure49) Theoverallaverageincreaseagainstthebaselineacrossthe40yearsfrom2020to2050is~10%.
15.1.2 SYNERGISTICTRENDS
Climatechangewouldseeagriculturalproductivityincreaseinthebasin(around3.6%by2030)butfood securitydecrease,despitetheincreasingareasunderirrigation.Thosedecreasesareduetoreduceddry seasonrainfallandrunoffincentralandsouthernzones,reducedproductivityofricecropsduetoanincrease inthedailyminimumtemperature,increasingpopulationsandreducedproductioninexcessofdemandand increasingsalineintrusionintheDeltaduetostormsurgeandtidalinfluencesanddecreasesindryseason rainfallandrunoff. Fishbiodiversityandstabilityinfisheriessectorproductionisexpectedtodecreaseinthebasindespite someclimatechangebenefitsofincreasingfloodedareaandnutrientloading.Thedecreasesareduetothe complexinterplaybetweendecreasedagriculturalproductivityandfoodsecurityincreasingdemandand pressureonfishpopulations,increasedriparianpopulations,reducedfishmigrationandaquaticbiodiversityin zone1andinMekongtributariesduetodamandinfrastructureconstruction,andreducedanddisturbed habitatduetoacombinationofclimatechangeanddevelopment.Thebenefitstoproductivityofincreased nutrientsduetoincreasedrunoffanderosionwithclimatechangemaybeoffsetbyreducedsedimentdueto Chinaandtributarydams,especiallyinthecentralhighlandsofVietNam. Thehydropowersectorwillbenefitfromtheincreasedflowspredictedwithclimatechanges.Increased rainfall,runoffandflowthroughoutbasinwouldincreasehydroelectricitypotentialinboththetributariesand mainstream. Thehydropowersectorwillalsofaceanincreasinglycomplexandsevereriskprofile.Somecatchmentswill experienceveryhighincreasesinrunoffandwatervolumepossiblybeyondthecapacityofexistingtributary damschemescreatingriskoffailureandneedforretrofitting.Increaseinextremeweteventsandincidence offloodeventsbringsariskofcatastrophicfailure(climatechangemayturna1in10,000yearfloodriskintoa moreregulareventforexampletoa1in1,000flood). LivelihoodsareunderincreasingstressintheMekongbasinduetopressuresonaquaticandterrestrial systems.Whiletherearebenefits,overallclimatechangewillincreasethatstressbyincreasingtheneedto makeagriculturemoreproductiveandextensiveandbyincreasingpressuretoexploitaquaticresources. Overallreductionsinfishhabitat,feedingandnurseryareasandincreasingwaterstressinsomecatchments andthefrequencyandintensityofdroughtperiodswillallhaveknockoneffectsonlivelihoodactivities.Other developments,suchashydropowerdams,intensifynaturalsystemstressandthenegativeeffectsofclimate change.Climatechangessuchastemperatureandrainfallincreasesandincreasedincidenceoffloodingwill alsoincreasehealthriskswhichwouldreducelabourproductivityandincreaselevelsofpoverty. TheexpansionofreservoirstorageintheMekongBasinprovidesthetechnicalcapacityfordroughtrelief significantimprovementsininstitutionalcapacityandregulatoryeffectivenessarerequiredifthisistobe realised.Withbetween40and70storageprojectsplannedfortheLMBtributariesand8storageprojectson theLancangRiverby2030,theMekonghydropowersectorwillhavethecapacitytostoremorethan 69,000mcmorintheorderof14%ofmeanannualflow.Thisprovidesthetechnicalcapacitytomitigatethe impactsofdroughtyearsonwaterusers,however,inpracticethereisminimalrealisationofmultiuse reservoiroperationintheLMB.ExperienceinVietNamandYunnanprovincehasdemonstratedlittlerelief duringdroughtforotherwaterusersashydropoweroperatorsprioritisetheirelectricitygeneratingpotential overotherconsiderations.Changestotheregulatoryframeworkofwatershedmanagementwouldbe requiredifdroughtrelieffromstoragehydropoweristoberealised. 121
15.2 IMPACTSASSESSMENT 15.2.1 CHANGESTOEXTREMEEVENTS

Extremeeventslikea1in10,000floodeventwouldoccurmorefrequentlywithclimatechangeduringan estimated 100 year project life. The predicted increases in river discharge due to climate change and the polarisationofthewetanddryseasonwouldalterthefrequencyofextremeevents.Eventsthatarepredicted to occur once in 10,000 years are likely to occur once in 1,000 years, whilst the one in 1,000 year event is predictedtooccuroncein100years(Table26). Table26: comparison of changes to themagnitudeofextreme events forthe samereturnperiodover an estimatedprojectlifeof100years:1in10,000yeareventswouldbecome1in1,000yeareventswithclimate change
Station ChiangSaen LuangPrabang Vientiane Pakse Kratie EXTREMEVALUEDISTRIBUTION HistoricReturnperiodflow(EVdist) 10yr 12,252 17,137 18,670 40,842 56,254 100yr 14,551 19,912 21,285 45,344 62,934 1,000 16,808 22,637 23,852 49,765 69,493 10,000 19,061 25,357 26,414 54,177 76,040 EXTREMEVALUEDISTRIBUTION Project 2030 Return period flow (EV dist) withCC 10yr 13,209 18,783 19,692 43,459 59,000 100yr 15,769 22,362 22,745 49,149 66,886 1,000yr 18,282 25,876 25,742 54,734 74,629 10,000 20,790 29,384 28,734 60,311 82,358
Climatechangewouldincreasetheoccurrenceofextremeeventsduringthelifeofthemainstreamprojects, includingthosewhichrepresentthethresholdofsafetydesign.Overa100yearprojectlife: Adamdesignedfora1in10,000yeareventwouldseetheprobabilityofthiseventoccurringover thedesignlifeincreasefrom1%to10%. Acomponentdesignedfora1in1,000yeareventwouldseetheprobabilityofthiseventoccurring overthedesignlifeincreasefrom10%to63% Eachdamisalmostcertaintoexperiencea1in100yreventwithclimatechange. Theincreasedlikelihoodofextremeeventswithclimatechangewouldincreasetheriskoffailurefordams andtheirkeyhydrauliccomponents.ThemagnitudeofflowsassociatedwithextremeeventsontheMekong River is enormous and failure during an extreme event could result in unprecedented fluctuations in downstream flows and water levels with catastrophic consequences for downstream communities. Many of the important cities of the Mekong could be at risk in the case of failure, including Vientiane, Pakse, Luang PrabangaswellasPakLay,StungTreng,Kratie,andKampongCham.
15.2.2 CHANGESTORUNOFF,FLOW&FLOODING
Climatechangewouldincreasetheimpactsofflooding,witha1282%changeindepthinthefloodplainfor A2anda22%increaseinfloodduration.TherewouldbeanincreaseinareasintheDeltaaffectedbysaline intrusionintherange249to1,882km2ora1.4%(B2)to10.5%(A2)increase.Figure54showsthat: 20302039isprojectedtohaveanmeanincreaseinannualflowof~23%inZone2,droppingtoan increaseof~15%inzones3to5 Theoverallaverageincreaseagainstthebaselineacrossthe40yearsfrom2020to2050is~10%. The expected increase in runoff in most catchments increases the electricity generation potential of planned tributary and mainstream projects. Climate change and hydropower development are antagonistic forcesonthehydrologicalregimeoftheMekongRiver,withhydropowerregulatingseasonalflowandclimate changeincreasingtheannualaveragesaswellasincreasingthedisparitybetweenseasonalflows. With design modifications tributary projects could harness the additional energy potential and improve their capacityto meet regional and national energy demands. The expected increase in runoff would also increasetheelectricitygenerationpotentialofthemainstreamprojectsprovidedtheyaredesignedtoharness it. 122
Figure54:PercentagechangeinmeanannualflowduetoclimatechangeagainsttheBDPbaseline(1986 2000)
15.2.3 SYNERGISTICIMPACTSONFOODSECURITY
Climatechangewouldexacerbatefoodsecurityissuesarisingfromhydropowerdevelopment.Foodsecurity isoneofthecriticalissuesfordevelopmentoftheMekongBasin.80%ofthebasinpopulationreliesonnatural resourcesfortheirlivelihoodsandthelossesinthecapturefishery,thelossinagriculturalareaandriverbank gardensandthelossinnutrientsupplytotheCambodian,Mekongdeltaandcoastalenvironmentsexpected fromthemainstreamdamswouldincreasetheinsecurityoffoodavailabilityinthebasin.Climatechangeis projectedtoexacerbatethoseimpactsinanumberofsignificantways: ReducedyieldofriceandothercropsintheMekongBasinduetotheincreasesintheminimumdaily temperatureandthereductioninrainfallduringthedryseasoninsomesubbasins.Also,increased runoffduringthewethaspotentialtoincreasetopsoilerosion. Increasethewaterdemandofdryseasoncrops.Thiswouldrequireimprovedseasonalmanagement ofwaterresourcestosustainthesameproductivity. Increase the seasonal irregularity of water availability. Extreme events like droughts and floods wouldbecomemorefrequentwithclimatechange
15.2.4 GHGEMISSIONS
The11LMBmainstreamreservoirshavethepotentialtoreducetheemissionsoftheregionalpowersector. Analysis of the emissions avoided by 2030 if 65,000 GWh of power is produced by the mainstream dams including estimates of reservoir emissions indicate that in the order of 50 million tonnes CO2/ yr could be avoidedbythemainstreamdams.Thisisequivalentto15milliontonnesofcoalfiredgenerationperannum.
16 NATIONALWORKINGGROUPIMPACTASSESSMENTS
Duringtheregionalimpactassessmentworkshop,nationalgroupsofgovernment,NGOandacademicexperts conductedaseriesofimpactassessmentworkingsessionsbasedontheinformationandanalysisfromtheSEA andtheirdiscussions.Thenationalgroupswereaskedtocolourcodeandscoreaccordingtotheimpactofthe mainstreamdamsoneachofthethreekeyissueunderthe8themesinresponsetothequestionWillthe mainstreamprojectsaffectthetrendsineachofthekeyissuesduringconstructionoroperation?(Table27 providesanexampleofthematrixforthefisheriesthemesimilarmatriceswerecompletedforeachofthe eightthemes)IftheresponsewasYes,theyusedthesustainabilityobjectivestatementsforeachtheme (distilledfromgovernmentpoliciesduringthenationalworkshops)asaguideinrespondingtothequestion Willthoseaffectsprovidebenefitsand/orcosts?Thegroupsthencolourcodedandscoredtheimpactina matrixandgavereasonsforeachscore. 123
Table27:Impactassessmentkeyissuescoringmatrix Levelofimpact Score/ Theme/keyissue colour (example) Theme:Fisheries issues 1.changesinmigrations 2.changesindiversity 3.changesinfishproduction Sustainabilityobjective
1.Largenegativeimpact 2.Negativeimpact 3.Noimpact 4.positiveimpact 5.largepositiveimpact 6.bothpositive& negativeimpacts 7.notrelevant
Score
Maintenance&enhancementof diversity&productivityoffish resources Comments&reasonsforscore
TheresultsofthesessionaresynthesisedinFigure55andTable28.Insummary,thenationalexpertgroups perceivedthatLaoPDRandCambodiawouldbenefitmostfromthemainstreamprojectsandThailandand VietNamleast,eventhoughrecognizingthatpowerdemandinthelattercountrieswasthedrivingforcefor mainstreamprojectfeasibility. Figure55:Workinggroupnationalrankingsofrisksandopportunities Thedetailedscoringofimpactagainstthe strategicthemesandissuesofconcerntothe developmentandmaintenanceoftheMekong RiverissummarisedinTable25.TheVietNam groupconcludedthatonly7%oftrendsinkey issueswouldbepositivelyaffected.TheLao groupontheotherhandconcludedthatthere wouldbealargepositiveimpacton26%ofkey issuesandanother22%wouldbeboth positivelyandnegativelyaffected. Conversely,theVietNamandThainationalgroupsperceivedthattheircountrieswouldsufferthegreatest negativeimpactsrelativetobenefitsfrommainstreamdevelopment,withtheLaogroupconsideringthattheir countrywouldhaveleastnegativeeffectsrelativetobenefits(Figure51).TheVietNamandThaigroups concludedthat67%and52%oftrendsinkeyissueswouldbeaffectednegativelybythemainstreamprojects respectively;withThailandhavethehighestnumberofkeyissueswithlargenegativeimpacts.Interestingly, theCambodiangroupconcludedthat70%oftrendsinkeyissueswouldbeaffectednegatively,butalsogave largepositiveimpactscorestomoreissues(19%)thanThailandandVietNam. Allgroupsrecognisedthatbenefitswouldbefocusedonpower&economicthemeswhileriskswouldfocuson natural&socialsystems,particularlyfisheriesandhydrology&sediment.Allgroupswereconcernedover potentialforincreasedpovertyfrommainstreamdevelopmentdespiterecognitionofhighreturnsfrompower sales.TheLaogroupplacedhighestsignificanceonthepowerbenefit,whiletheVietNamandThaigroups gavetheleastsignificancetothisbenefiteventhoughtheywouldconsumemostofthepower. 124
Table28:Resultsofnationalworkshopgroupassessmentofimpactsignificancebykeyissue
THEME ISSUE LAOPDR CAMBODIA THAILAND VIETNAM
Hydrologyand Changesinpatternsofmaximumwaterlevels,ratesofriseandpredictability sediment Changesinsedimenttransportanddeposition Changesinnutrienttransport Terrestrial ecosystems and agriculture Aquatic ecosystems Fisheries Habitatlossanddegradation ChangesinLanduse Changesinirrigatedagriculture ChangesinRiverbankgardens Changeinproductivityofaquatichabitats Changesinpopulationsofrareandendangeredspecies Changesinwaterquality Changesinlongdistancemigration Changesinfishspeciesbiodiversity Changesinfishproduction Socialsystems Changesinpovertyandnaturalresourcebasedlivelihoods Changesinhealthandnutrition Socialeffectsofresettlement,landacquisitionandlossofaccess Changesinculturalvaluesandpatterns Economics ContributionstonationaleconomyExportearning ContributionstonationaleconomyForeignDirectInvestment Contributionstolocaleconomies(districtandcommunitylevel Energyand Power Climate change Achievingenergysecurity Meetingnationalenergydemands Meetinglocalenergyneeds RelativeemissionsofgreenhouseGas Directimpactsofclimatechangeonhydropowerprojectsextremeevents&damsecurity Combinedeffectofclimatechangeandmainstreamdamsonfoodsecurity
17 SUMMARYOFIMPACTSIGNIFICANCE&MITIGATIONPOTENTIAL
TheSEAteamusedthoseresultsofthenationalgroupsessionsasaninputtoamorecomprehensiveimpact assessmentexciseoverseveraldayswhich,foreachkeyissue,assessedthedegreeofconfidencethatan impactwouldoccur,thesignificanceofthatimpactandthenthepotentialfortheimpacttobeavoided, mitigatedandenhanced(Table29).Itispossibletointroduceavoidance,mitigationandenhancement measuresateachstageofmainstreamprojectplanningandimplementationwiththechancesofsuccess varyingaccordingtocapacities,resourcesandthenatureoftheimpact. Thefollowingdefinitionswereadoptedbytheteamtoclarifythedistinctionbetweenavoidance,mitigation andenhancementintheSEA. AVOIDANCEmeansthecompleteavoidanceofoneormorepossibleadverseimpactsarisingfromoneor moreproposedLMBmainstreamschemes. MITIGATIONmeansthereductionintheintensityorcoverageofanimpactifoneormoreprojectsgo ahead. ENHANCEMENTmeansimprovingthebenefitsderivedfromoneormoreofthemainstreamprojectsby improving,forexample,developmenteffectiveness,managementofrisk,regionalandlocaldistributionof benefits. Table29providedtheframeworkforthefinalstageoftheSEAinwhichtheteamdrewconclusionsandmade avoidance,mitigationandenhancementrecommendations. Table29:Summaryofimpactsignificanceandmitigationpotentialagainstkeyissues Confidenceintheoccurrence/significanceofimpacts High Medium low Potentialforfeasibleandeffectiveavoidance,mitigation&enhancementmeasures Nopotential Potential Highpotential ISSUE IMPACT FEASIBLE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE 125
Significanceof impact
Confidenceof occurrence
Description
Achievingenergysecurity POWERSYSTEMS
Diversificationofenergysources Increasedregionalcooperationinthepowersector ContributiontoImportingcountrypowerdemand ContributingtoHostcountrypowerdemand&access
Meetingnationalenergydemand
Meetinglocalenergyneeds Hostdistricts&provincespowerdemand&access Contributionstonational&localeconomies

Stimuluseffects Exportearningsforhostcountries FDI(ForeignDirectInvestment)forhostcountries Increasedmacroeconomic(GDP)growthduetoboomingHPsectorand increasedgovernmentrevenuesandspending Increasedshorttermcostsindebtservice Lowergrowth/contractionofnaturalresourcesectors(i.e.fisheries, agriculture) Industrialgrowth(includingminingsector) Lossofriverbasedtourism Increaseinreservoirtourism Shiftinlocaleconomicbaseofaffecteddirectly&indirectlyaffected communities Increasedpovertyandlossoflivelihoodsbaseforruralpoor Risingfoodpricesaffectingurbanpoor Damage/lossoffixedassets(localirrigationinfrastructure,rendering inappropriateoftransport&fishingvessel) Developmentofnewinfrastructure(largescaleirrigation,roads,bridges) Extremeelevationofwaterlevelsforlargestretchesofriverandthe conversionofthesystemfromawildrivertoaseriesofimpoundments interspersedwithfreeflowingreaches Associatedwithpeakpowerproduction,waterlevelscouldvaryby46m andcouldtravel100200kmdownstreaminamatterof13hours breakdowns,transmissionlinefailure/unexpectedloadshedding& loadresumption frommismanagementoffloodgates,orextremeevents Upstream:increasedwaterlevelswillreducepumpingheadsfor irrigationprojectswithinreservoirareas Predictablechangesinextent&durationofflooding,butsmallin comparisontoimpactfromotherdamsinthe20Yscenario.Themost significantimpactswillbeinZone2&3floodedareas,whichwillbecome permanentlyinundated PredictablechangesinTonleSapwaterlevels,butsmallincomparison toimpactfromotherdamsinthe20Yscenario
ECONOMICSYSTEM
Debtsustainability Sectorimpacts
Poor& marginalised Civic infrastructure
Changesinpatternsofmaximumwaterlevels,ratesofriseandpredictability
Reservoir permanent inundation Largehourly watersurface levelchanges Unexpectedrapid changesinturbine flow Catastrophicflood releases Upstream irrigation infrastructure floodplain inundation(extent &duration) Watersurface levelchangesin theTonleSap system Salineintrusionin theMekongDelta Dissipationof streampower Downstream irrigation infrastructure Reservoir sedimentation
HYDROLOGY&SEDIMENT
variationofwaterqualityatirrigationintakesfromhourtohourduring lowseasonresultingfromfluctuatingdischargesfromSambor Hydropowerprojectwillconcentratestreampowerdissipationatthe turbines/damswithVerylargeelectricalenergyproduction Majorlossofdownstreambedloadtransport Downstream:ChangesinWLsandsedimentationpatternswould:(i) renderthepumpintakesinoperable(drownoutandsiltup),(ii)reduce efficienciesofgravitycolmatagesdesignedtotransportwetseason floodwaters Enhanceddepositionattailwatersofreservoirs(neardamwall) Nettaccumulationofmedium/coarsesedimentsattheheadwater
Changesinsedimenttransportanddeposition
126
Enhancement
Mitigation
Avoidance
Downstream channelstability International border Deeppools Coastal erosion/accretion Floodplain fertilisation Tonlesap& floodedforest nutrientloading Coastalzone nutrientloading Terrestrial biodiversityand protectedareas Ramsarsites associatedwith theMekong Terrestrialspecies diversity Wetlands Forestcover Agriculturalland Irrigation effectiveness Subsistence farming
reachesofreservoirs(inflowend)withlossofnavigability Downstreamofdamstheriverbedwillbedepletedofmedium/coarse sedimentscausingerosion Lossofdefinitionofthethalwegfromnetaccumulationof medium/coarsesedimentsatheadwaterreachesofreservoir Lossofdeeppoolriverfeaturesinspecificlocations Futureerosionofcoastlineanddeltachannelsfromchangesto geomorphicstabilityofthedelta(inc.lossofmangrovehabitat) Lossofannualsilt/nutrientdepositiononthefloodplain Lossofannualsilt/nutrientdepositionenteringtheTonleSapsystem; fisheriesandfloodforest Lossofnutrientsinthedeltaoutflowsandsupplynutrientsupplyto marinefishery
Changesinnutrienttransport
Habitatlossanddegradation
ChangesinKeyBiodiversityAreasassociatedwiththeMekongRiver ChangesinProtectedAreasandRamsarsitesassociatedwiththe Mekong Impactsuponriverdependentbirds
TERESTRIALSYSTEMS
ChangesinLanduse
Loss/changesinwetlandsduetoinundation Lossofforestcoverthroughinundationandtransmissionlines
Changesinirrigatedagriculture
Lossofagriculturalland Lossesandgainsinirrigatedagriculture(c.f.hydrologymatrix)
ChangesinRiverbankgardens
Lossofriverbankgardensandsourceoflivelihood
Changeinproductivityofaquatichabitats
Habitatdiversity Habitatarea Primary productivity Fishcatch Lossofhabitatdiversity(zones2,3&4) Conversionofrivertoreservoir Reductionofprimaryproductivityduetolossofwetlands&reduced nutrientloading Lossinfishproduction(c.f.fisheriesmatrix) Lossoffishspeciesthatcannotsurviveunderreservoirconditions Fishspecies Rare,endangered &charismatic species Uplandsea longitudinal connectivity Construction impacts Nutrientloading Increaseofspeciesthatcansurviveandthriveinreservoirconditions LossofIrrawaddyDolphinandotherendangeredspecies
AQUATICSYSTEMS
Changesinpopulationsofrareandendangeredspecies
Disruptionofupstreamanddownstreammovementoffishbetween zonesandthesea
Changesinwaterquality
Contaminationofriver,fishkills,reducedecosystemhealth Highturbidityofriverwater,withimpactsonecosystemhealthand watersupplies Lossofnutrientsonfinesediments,reducedfertilityofriverand floodplain(c.f.hydrologymatrix) Reducedconnectivity&lossofspawninghabitatsaffectingreproductive cycleoffishandsomemigrations(e.g.GiantMekongCatfish) LossofimportantfishmigrationcorridorupstreamofKhonefallsand thelossofaquatichabitat Lossofthemainfishmigrationcorridor
Changesinlongdistancemigration
Upstreamof Vientiane
FISHERIES
VientianePakse Downstreamof Pakse
Changesinfishspeciesbiodiversity
Fishspecies Lossoffishspecies.Atleast41knownspeciesspecificallyatrisk upstreamofVientiane.Furtherdownstreamspecificriskonbiodiversity couldnotbequantified
Changesinfishproduction 127
Upstreamof lossesincapturefisheries:130,000to270,000tonnes Vientiane VientianePakse Downstreamof Pakse Poorhouseholds Distributionof natural resource benefits Multiple relocation
lossesincapturefisheries:210,000to420,000tonnes lossesincapturefisheries:220,000to440,000tonnes
Changesinpovertyandnaturalresourcebasedlivelihoods
Disproportionateimpactonpoorhouseholds Noimpactequity(e.g.thoselosingcultivablelandarenotthose benefitingfromirrigationopportunities Highproportionofdownstreamcommunitiespermanentlylosing naturalresourcebasedlivelihoods(particularlyfishers) CumulativeimpactsinVietNamoflostagriculturalproductivity, increasedagriculturalcosts,reducedfishproduction Steeplanderosionimpactingresettledcommunitiesinuppercascade resultinginadditionalrelocation Increasedincidenceofvectordisease STD/HIV/AIDstransmissionfromexternallabourforce Reductioninprimaryproteinsource Increasedstunting&wastingduetolossofnaturalresourcebase& multipledisruptionofsubsistenceactivities(particularlyamongethnic minoritiesandupperareasoftheMekong) Riskoflossoflife,property&assetsamongripariancommunitiesdueto poorlymanagedwaterreleasesordamfailure Lossofhomes,assets,agriculturalland,riverbankgardens,forestlands, commonuselands Lossofcommunityresources&sitesofcultural/historicalinterest Multiplerelocations Incomegenerating activities LossoftansMekongRiveraccess&navigationbasedlivelihoodsfor smallcrafts Lossofaccesstosubsistenceincome(e.g.fishery) Changesandreducedrelevanceofriverbasedfestivals(e.g.Giant MekongCatfishfestival) Lossofwaysoflifeleadingtoerosionofculturalidentities Severelydisruptedriverbasedtourismduringconstruction Changesinriverbasedtourismattractions ReductioninCO2emissionsfromoffsetfossilfuels IncreasedCO2emissionfromreservoirs
Changesinhealthandnutrition
Incidenceof disease Proteinsource& nutrition Lossoflife
SOCIALSYSTEMS
Socialeffectsofresettlement,landacquisitionandlossofaccess
Assets
Culturalassets
Culturalheritage
Tourism&cultural assets Climatechange mitigation
GreenHouseGasemissions CLIMATECHANGE Directimpactsofclimatechangeonhydropowerprojectsextremeevents&damsecurity Increasedrunoff Increasedhydropowerpotentialformainstream&tributaryprojects

&flow Increasedlikelihoodofextremeevents,breachofdamdesign specificationsandfailure
Combinedeffectofclimatechange&LMBmainstreamdamsonfoodsecurity Reducedfoodsecurity&constraintstopovertyreduction Lossofbiodiversity&changestowaterquality Longitudinalconnectivity

Subsistence& smallvesseluse Medlargescale transport Freedomof navigation Damswillimpedethemovementofsmallvesselsacrossdamstructures Damswillimpedethemovementofmed/largescalepassenger&cargo transportacrossdamstructures operationofmainstreamhydropowerdamswillimpedeFreedomof Navigation,Article9oftheMRC1995Agreementifsuitableshiplocks arenotoperationalandmaintainedeffectively IncreasednavigabilityupstreamofVientianeduetoincreasedwater levels ReducednavigabilityStungTrengtotheCoastduetochannelinstability
NAVIGATION
Navigability
Allusers
18 THEBIGSTRATEGICISSUES
128
Thenationalgroupimpactassessmentresultsandtheaprioritysettingexercisebytheteamimmediately followingtheregionalimpactassessmentworkshopinVientianeledtotheconsolidationofthemesandkey issuesintoasetofBigStrategicIssues.ThepurposeofanSEAistoprogressivelysharpenthestrategicfocus ofdecisionmakingonthemostimportantissues.ThisSEAledtothedefinitionoffiveBigStrategicIssues. ThosefiveprovidetheframeworkforpresentingtheSEAteamsfindingsandconclusions.Theyare: Powergeneration o Revenuegeneration(includingtradeandforeigninvestment) o Powersecurity Economicdevelopmentandpovertyalleviation Ecosystemsintegrityanddiversity(includingaquatic,terrestrial,hydrologicaldynamicsand sediment/nutrienttransport). Fisheriesandfoodsecurity(includingagriculture) Socialsystemslivelihoodsandlivingculturesofaffectedcommunities TheentireSEAprocessstartingwiththemanydevelopmentconcernsandworkingtowardsdefiningthekey issuesandmainstrategicconcernsisillustratedinFigure56: Figure56:SEAprocessleadingtodefiningofBigStrategicIssues
100sofdevelopmentIssues
GovernmentLineAgency Meetings
meetingswith40agenciesintheLMB
1.SCOPING
4NationalScopingWorkshops 3CivilSocietymeeting ThaiCivilSocietymeetingtofollowin November
2 FieldMissions &Opinionfrom 17 experts

8THEMES(~30 40 KEYISSUES) Luang Prabang,Xayabouly,PakLay, Sanakhan,PakChom
Withoutmainstream hydropower
Issue1
Withmitigation
Issue2
Withmainstream hydropower
pastpresent future 2.BASELINEASSESSMENT 3.OPPORTUNITIES &RISKSASSESSMENT
4.AVOIDANCE,MITIGATIONANDENHANCEMENT
NationalScoping&Capacity BuildingWorkshop&CivilSociety Meetings
Definingthefive 4.MITIGATION BigStrategicIssues
129
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|PARTIV
CONCLUSIONS&RECOMMENDATIONS
PARTIV:CONCLUSIONSAND RECOMMENDATIONS
PartIVoftheSEAsynthesisreportpresentsthemainconclusionsandrecommendationsarisingfromtheSEA processfromtheassessmentandconsultationateachstage,especiallyfromthefinalregionalworkshopon avoidance,mitigationandenhancement.Thepartisarrangedsothattheconclusionsandmainstrategic optionsareconsideredfirst,andthentherecommendedcourseofaction.Therationaleforthefavoured optionispresented,togetherwiththeimplicationsifLMBcountrieschosetoselectanotheroption.Detailed recommendationsfollowforneededstudiesandimprovementsinpolicy,institutionalarrangementsand capacitybuilding,inhydropoweranddesignandmitigationmeasures,andinenvironmentalandsocial safeguards.ManyoftherecommendationsareaimedataregionallevelfortheMRCinparticularothers areproposedforeachcountry
19 CONCLUSIONS
19.1 UNCERTAINTIESONSTRATEGICCONCERNS
Uncertaintiesremainrelatingtostrategicconcernsandrisksandtothenature,extentanddistributionof benefits.TheSEAanalysisandconsultationfoundremaininguncertaintiesrelatingtomanyofthemain strategicissuesofconcern.Uncertaintyremainsonlevelsofrisksandofbenefits;onwhetherornottheycan beavoided,mitigatedorenhanced;onthefeasibilityofinstitutionalandmanagementresponses,andevenon someofthebasicassumptionsrelatingtotheneedfortheprojectsandtotheiralternatives.Thissection exploressomeofthestrategicissuesandquestionsonwhichuncertaintiespersistwhenconsideringthe mainstreamprojectsproposals. Dorivermanagersknowenoughaboutthenatureandextentofpotentialimpactsoftheproposedprojectsto makearesponsibleandinformeddecision?i.e.isenoughknownfordecisionmakerstosaywithassurance that: 1. 2. 3. 4. thebenefitsoutweighthecosts, thebenefitscanbeequitablydistributed, mostimpactscanbeoffsetorcompensated,and conditionssetforprojectdevelopmentcanbeenforced.
TheSEAhasfoundthatinformationgapsremainonissuescriticaltomakingresponsiblejudgementsonthose matters. Arethepotentialsocialandenvironmentaleffectsunderstood?Uncertaintiesrelatingtosocialand environmentaleffectsremainwithimportanteconomicandequityimplications.Forexample,theMekong Riversupportstheworldslargestinlandfishery.Thedirectimpactsofmainstreamdamsonthesectorwould besubstantialbutthesystemiscomplexandexpertsdonthavesufficientinformationtoagreeonthe details.Thecombinedeffectsonfoodsecurityofmainstreamdamsandclimatechangewithinproject lifetimescouldbeextremeinsomesubbasinsbutadequateworkhasnotbeendonetoarriveatcleartrends andrangesineffects.ReducedsedimentandnutrientsenteringtheDeltawouldhavesignificanteffectson 130
agriculture,aquacultureandonmarineandfreshwatercapturefisheriesbuttheexpertsdonotyethavethe details.Around60%ofmainstreamwetlandswouldbepermanentlylostbuttheaddedimplicationsfor overallriverproductivity,forfoodandforspeciesisnotunderstood.Projectimpactswouldaffectthepoor mostdirectlyandimmediately,andthattheexperienceintheregionwithadjustmentprogramsandlongterm supportshasnotbeengood,especiallyincaseswhenriverscrossadministrativeboundaries.Butthereisno certaintythattheinstitutionalcapacitiesandarrangements,enduringprogramcommitmentsandresources wouldbeinplacetomakethedifferenceinthiscase. AretherealternativewaysofharnessingthemainstreampowerwithoutplacingdamsacrosstheMekong Riverandwithoutlosinganyofitsotherusesandvalues?Theanswerappearstobeyesbutmostlikelyat muchlessprofitandpoweroutputandgenerallynotasattractivetoprivatedevelopers,investorsorhost governmentslookingtogenerateforeignexchangeearnings.Alternativesmaybeunprovenandnotproduce anequivalentamountofenergy,buttheymaybemoreecologicallyandsociallybenign.Thosealternatives havenotbeenreviewednorhasthefeasibilityoftheirapplicationatvariouslocationsontheriverbeen explored. Whatwouldtherevenuestreamsbe?andWhobenefitsfinanciallyfromthem?Theannualgrossrevenue flowfromallmainstreamproposalshasbeenestimatedtobeintherangeofUSD3.3to3.7billion.Basedon experiencewithothermajorhydropowerprojectsintheMekongregion,especiallyNamTheunII,itis estimatedthat2531%ofthetotalrevenuestreamwouldaccruetothegovernmentsinCambodiaandLao PDRduringthe25yearconcessionperioddependingonhowthefinancingpackageforeachprojectwas structured.64However,itisuncertaintowhatextentthoserevenuescanorwillbeusedtoimprovethelotof populationsadverselyaffectedpopulations,especiallyinthecaseoftransboundaryimpacts.Benefitsharing mechanismshavebeenmootedbutthesewouldrequiresignificantcapacityandinstitutionaldevelopment, theeffectivenessofwhichisuncertain. Anothersetofuncertaintiesconcernnetfinancialandeconomicbenefitsovertimefundscomeontapat varioustimesandinvariousproportionsoverthelifeofaprojectandwithvaryinguncertaintiesassociated withthem.Figure57,basedonSambor65,illustratesthattemporalvariationinflowanduncertaintyofcosts andbenefitsforthehostcountry(inthecaseCambodia).Duringtheconstructionperiod(20212028),there wouldbeasurgeineconomicbenefitstothehosteconomyduetoinvestmentstimulus.However,costs wouldalsograduallyriseovertheconstructionperiod.Withincreasingcostsincurredforlandacquisitionand resettlement,andsubstantialsocialandenvironmentallossesastheinundationareaisflooded.Once operationsstarttherevenuesgeneratedwouldgotorepayingthefinancing,typicallyoveratenyearperiod. Fortheremainingperiodoftheconcessionrevenueswouldbedividedintodividends(paidtoshareholders generallyincludingthehostgovernment),taxation(paidtogovernment)andpaymentsforwaterrights,which isusuallyaunitchargeonwaterresources.Initiallygovernmentrevenueswouldbearelativelysmall proportionofthegrossrevenue.Onlyafterhandoverwouldthefullrevenuesgeneratedgotothe governmentastheownerofthefacility,eventhenthereisrealuncertaintyastothereturnswhichcouldbe expected.PPAsmayneedtoberenegotiatedandwhileenergypricesmaywellbehigher,somefacilitiesmay havelimitedexportoptionsgivingtheimportingcountryconsiderablenegotiatingpowerindeterminingthe tarifftheyarepreparedtopay.66 TheunderlyingstrategicquestionfacingLMBcountriesisWhatkindofdevelopmentisappropriateforthe MekongRiverinthe21stCentury?Inevitably,placinglargestructuresacrossthefullwidthofariverwhether runoftheriverorstoragefacilitiesisdisruptivetonaturalandsocialsystems.Theyproducelargequantities ofpower,butatalosstoriverconnectivitywithallthisimplies.Thegoalofdevelopmentinthe21stCenturyas reflectedinglobal,regionalandnationalpolicyframeworksistodevelopalternativeswhichkeepoptionsand functionsopenforfuturegenerations.Itistochangethequalityofdevelopmentinawaywhichavoids damageandpermanentlosses,andtosafeguardthoseareasandassetswhichsocietywishestokeepfortheir existingsocial,environmentalandeconomicvalues.TheabsenceofanintegratedplanfortheentireMekong Rivermeansthatthemainstreamprojectsarebeingconsideredinacontextofmoregeneraluncertainty, outsideanadequatestrategicsustainabledevelopmentframework. TakingthoseandotheruncertaintiesidentifiedduringtheSEAintoaccount,asetofconclusions,strategic optionsandrecommendationsweredefinedbytheteam.
64 65
Forexample,theextentofconcessionalfinancingandtheamountofgovernmentequity. Samborwaschosenforillustrationasithasbothsignificantinvestmentcostsandhighlevelofimpactsthusshowinghow theselargeinvestmentscouldpotentiallyplayoutovertime. 66 WhilethisadmittedlyislesslikelytobethecasewithSamborwhichislikelytofindareadydomesticmarketforits power,itisarealconsiderationforsomeoftheprojectsinLaoPDR.Reachingothermarketsthanthosealreadyservicedby thefacilitiesmayimplylargeinvestmentsintransmissioninfrastructure.
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TheconclusionsoftheSEAaresummarisedaccordingtothebigstrategicissuesidentifiedduringtheimpact assessmentphase.Therecommendationsfollowthestrategicoptionsandarecomplementedbydetailed annexestothisreport. Figure57:FlowsofcostsandbenefitsduringthelifeofamainstreamdambasedonSambor
Fillinginundationarea
Increasing benefitsand costs
Resettlementandland acquisition
Bulkoffinancing paidoff Operationsbegin Handover
Construction beings
19.2 POWERGENERATION
Thekeystrategicconcernsarerevenuegenerationthroughtradeandforeigninvestment,powersecurityand thechallengesofmanagingmanyprojectsonthemainstream.Themainconclusionsare: Ifall12mainstreamdamsweredevelopedthiswouldbringsubstantialincreasestopowergeneratedand generationcapacityintheregion.ExportrevenueearningsforCambodiaandLaoPDRwouldbesignificant andimplyincreasesinnetrevenuesforgovernmentpublicspending.LaoPDRwouldbenefitmostbecauseof thenumberofprojectslocatedthere. Intermsofleastcostpowersupply,mainstreamprojectsareonlylikelytobecriticalfortheCambodian powersector,andthenonlyinthelongtermwhenplantsaretransferredtoCambodia.Ifthemainstream projectswerenottogoahead,powerproductionfordomesticuseandexportinLaoPDRcouldcontinueto expandthroughtributaryoptions.Itwouldhavelittleeffectondomesticpowerprices. MainstreamhydropowerisnotparticularlysignificantforThailandandVietNam.DevelopmentofLMB mainstreamprojectswouldhaveaminorimpactonelectricitypricesandwouldhavelittleeffectontheenergy supplystrategiesofthosecountries. Establishingeffectiveinstitutionalarrangementsandrulesunderwhichprivatelyrunmainstreamprojects couldoperateiscomplexandhasinternationalimplications:Manymainstreamprojectsononerivereach operatedbyadifferentprivatedevelopercreatesentirelynewmanagementchallengesforLMBcountries.In LaoPDRandCambodiathereislimitedexperienceinthedevelopmentoflargehydroelectricprojectsbasedon privatecapitalandinvestmentbankfinancing.Jointpublicprivatemainstreamprojectswouldrequireavery specialisedinstitutionalstructurewithauthoritytomakefastdecisionsthatcanhaveinternational consequences,suchashowtooperatetheprojectsunderunusualflowconditions. Settingtheguidingcriteriafortheoperationofmanymainstreamdamshasinternationalconsequencesand wouldneedtoinvolvedCambodia,China,LaoPDR,ThailandandpossiblyVietNam.Thereislittle experienceanywhereintheLMBofcoordinatedmanagementofmanydamsononeriver.Forexample,rules arerequiredtodefinetowhatextentanewprojectmustpreservethehourlyflowregimeofdownstream projectsinamoreadvancedstageofdevelopment.Yunnandamscanregulateflowsduringwetanddry 132
seasons.LMBmainstreamprojectshaveverylimitedornocapacitytoregulateflowduringthewetseasonbut theycouldhaveconsiderablehourlyregulationattimesoflowflows.Thisregulationcanresultinupstream projectsadverselyaffectingflowarrivaltodownstreamprojectsandlimitthevalueofpowerdeliveriesduring peakhours.Specificrulesforhourlyflowmodificationneedtobesetandcollaborationtoperformoptimised operationplanning.Coordinatedreleaseisanecessitybutitwouldbechallengingfordeveloperstoanticipate itsconsequencesintermsofpeakandoffpeakpowerproduction.
19.3 ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT&POVERTYALLEVIATION
Revenuestreamsfrommainstreamprojectswouldprovideanimportantsourceofrevenuetofund developmentexpendituresinhostcountries.Whilesignificant,revenuesforhostgovernmentsarelessthan thelargegrossrevenueandpowerbenefitfiguressuggest.Netgovernmentrevenueforcountrieshostingthe mainstreamprojectsislikelytobelessthan2531%ofgrossrevenuesduringtheperiodoftheconcession agreement. LaoPDRislikelytoseesignificanteconomicgrowthduetomainstreamhydropowerinvestment. Thestimuluseffectsonhostcountriesarelikelytobesignificantbutlessthanthelargeinvestmentfigures suggest.Atleast50%ofFDIflowsintohostcountriesformainstreamhydropowerprojectsarelikelytobe spentoninputsfromoutsidethehostcountry. MainstreamhydropowergenerationprojectswouldcontributetogrowinginequalityintheLMBcountries. Benefitsofhydropowerwouldaccruetoendconsumers,developers,financiersandhostgovernments, whereasmostcostbornebypoorandvulnerablyripariancommunities.Benefitsareunevenlysharedbetween countries.VietNamandCambodiaarelikelytosuffernetshorttomediumtermlossesassociatedwith mainstreamdevelopment. Intheshorttomediumtermpovertywouldbemadeworsebymainstreamprojects,especiallyamongpoor inruralandurbanriparianareas.FishersareoverrepresentedinpoorandvulnerableLMBcommunities whichwouldbeaffectedbyfisherieslosses.Poorerhouseholdswouldalsobeadverselyaffectedbythedirect impactsofhydropowerdevelopmentincludingresettlement,lossofland,andimpactsduringthecontraction period.LossoffisheriesandassociatedproteinswouldleadtodeclinesinnutritionalhealthinLMB populations. RapidgrowthinthehydropowersectorinLaoPDRcouldleadtoinflationandrealexchangerate appreciation.Thiscouldaffectthecompetitivenessoftradablegoodssectors(suchasmanufacturingand agriculture)relativetootherdomesticsectorsandrelativetoimports.Thismayhaveadverseimplicationsfor povertyreductionastradablegoodssectorstendtobeimportantforpovertyreduction. Mainstreamprojectswouldhavesignificantnegativeimpactsforothereconomicsectorssomeofwhich cannotbemitigated,especiallyinthefisheriesandagriculturesectors. Thecostings,prices,taxesandpaymentsassociatedwithmainstreamdevelopmentisunlikelytoincludea realisticestimateofthefinancialcostsandsavingsinvolvedinprotectingthenaturalandhumancapitalof theLMB.Thefinancialincentivemechanismstomaximisethemaintenanceandenhancementofnaturaland humancapitalarenotinplaceshouldthemainstreamprojectgoahead. Thefullsocialandecologicalcostsofthemainstreamprojectscannotbeinternalisedthroughtheuseof economicandotherinstruments.Thefullcostshavenotbeenconsideredaspartofthecostsofthe investment.Adequatemechanismsarenotinplacetoensurethatthefullcostsofavoidingorcompensating fornaturalsystemandsocialimpactsarebornebytheprojectinvestors.
19.4 ECOSYSTEMSINTEGRITY&DIVERSITY
Themainstreamprojectsarelikelytoresultin(i)seriousandirreversibleenvironmentaldamage,(ii)losses inlongtermhealthandproductivityofnaturalsystemsand(iii)lossesinbiologicaldiversityandecological integrity. Themainstreamprojectswouldhaveanegativeimpacton(i)alargespatialareaandsharedresource;(ii) ecosystemsandbioregionsofinternationalimportance;(iii)alargenumberofspecies;and(iv)anumberof threatenedspecieslikelyleadingtotheirextinction. 133
Theninconsideringavoidance,mitigationandenhancement: (i) Adequatemeasurescannotbetakentopreventenvironmentaldamagewherescientificcertaintyabout theimpactisabsent; (ii) Adequatemeasurescannotbeputinplacetoaddressthreatstothelongtermhealthandproductivityof naturalsystems; (iii) Adequatearrangementsandmechanismsarenotinplacetoensurethatthemaintenanceofecological integrityandbiologicaldiversityisafundamentalconsiderationinconstructionandoperation.
19.5 FISHERIES&FOODSECURITY
SubstantiallossesinthefreshandmarinecapturefisheriesandinDeltaaquaculturewouldhavebasinwide impactsonthefisheriessector,associatedancillaryandprocessingindustries,andfisheriesassociated livelihoods,andhealthandnutrition. Theagriculturalsectorwouldbeadverselyaffectedbymainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentdespitethe improvementsinirrigation.TheimpactsonagricultureintheDeltaarelikelytobesignificantbutatthisstage havenotbeeninvestigatedorestimated. Whencombinedwithclimatechange,themainstreamprojectsarelikelytoreducefoodsecurityinriparian provinces.ClimatechangeisexpectedtocreatefooddeficitsituationsinanumberofLMBsubbasinsthrough reducedrainfallduringthedryseasons,increasedsoillossduringthewetandincreasesintemperature. Studieshavefoundthatriceyieldsdropasthedailyminimumtemperatureincreasesandasnightsgethotter. Overthelast25years,riceyieldshavefallenby1020%insomelocationsintheLMB.
19.6 SOCIALSYSTEMSLIVELIHOODS&LIVINGCULTURES
Thepotentialimpactsofmainstreamprojectsonsocialsystemshaveprovedmoredifficulttosubstantiatedue tothegapsininformationavailabletotheSEAonripariancommunities.Conclusionshavebeendrawnbased onwhatinformationwasavailableforexample,onnumbersofpeopledirectlyaffected,andonthe experiencewithpasthydropowerdevelopmentintheregion. TheSEAconcludesthatthemainstreamprojectsarelikelytohavesignificantnegativeeffectsonriparian communitiesbydisruptingtheir: (i) waysoflifei.e.,howtheylive,work,recreateandinteractwithoneanotheronadaytodaybasis; (ii) culturesi.e.,patternsofbehaviour,sharedbeliefs,customsandvalues; (iii) senseofcommunityi.e.itscohesion,stabilityandcharacter; (iv) naturalenvironmenti.e.allcomponentsoftheriverinesystem; (v) accesstoandavailabilityandqualityofthefoodtheyeat; (vi) physicalsafetyandthelevelofhazardorrisktheyareexposedto; (vii) accesstoandcontroloverresourcesunderlyinglivelihoods;and, (viii) physical,socialandspiritualhealthandwellbeing. Mostofthosenegativeeffectscannotbeadequatelymitigated,especiallyforthecurrentadultgeneration. Theexperienceinprovidingtheneededlongterm,consistentandsensitiveadjustmentandsupport programsforcommunitiesaffectedbyhydropowerhasnotbeengoodintheLMBregion.Oftenitrequires capacitiesandlongtermapproachestoprogramandbudgetmanagementthatarenotinplaceintheLMB.
19.7 SUMMARYOFCONCLUSIONS
Whileitisclearthatthemainstreamprojectswouldbringsignificantadditionalpowerand investment/revenuebenefitstotheregion,theywouldalsobringmanyseriousrisksanduncertaintiesto issuesofstrategiceconomic,socialandenvironmentalconcerntotheMekongcountriesandcommunitiesand forthesustainabledevelopmentoftheRiver.
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InsummarytheSEAconcludes: 1. 2. 3. TheMekongisagloballyimportantriver,oneofthefewremaininginternationalriversundammedover mostofitslength; OnedamacrosstheLowerMekongmainstreamcommitstherivertoirrevocablechange; Theproposeddevelopmentswhenunderconstructionandoperatinghavethepotentialtocreate; internationaltensionswithintheLMBduetoi)ecosystemintegrity,ii)reducedsedimentandnutrient loads,iii)disruptiontootherusesoftheMekongandiv)reducedproductivityinfisheriesandagriculture; Manyoftherisksassociatedwiththeproposedmainstreamdevelopmentscannotbemitigatedatthis timetheywouldrepresentapermanentandirreversiblelossofenvironmental,socialandeconomic assets; Therearemanyandsubstantialgapsininstitutionalandproceduralarrangementsforensuringthe effectivemanagementofconstructionandoperationoftheprojects; Criticalnationalcapacitiesintermsofpersonnelandskillsarenotyetinplacetooversee,control,monitor andenforcesafeguardsandoperationalrules; Theframeworkofregionalstandardsandsafeguardsrelatingtotransboundaryanddownstreameffects andinstitutionalarrangementsfortheirenforcementarenotfullydevelopedandarenotadequate; Therearesomanyremaininguncertaintiesandseriousrisksassociatedwiththedevelopmentsthat morestudiesareneededtobetterinformresponsibledecisionsmaking; ThestateofknowledgeabouttheMekongisnotconsideredadequateformakinganinformed decisionaboutmainstreamdamsatthistime;
4.
5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Thoseissuesrequirefurtherstudy,assessment,discussionandresolutionamongLMBcountries,facilitatedby MRC,beforecommitmentstomainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentaremade.
20 NEEDEDACTIONSLINKEDTOEACHSTRATEGICOPTION
TheSEAaddressesafundamentalquestionTodamornottodamtheMekongmainstream?Inresponseto thatquestion,theSEAhasdescribedandconsultedonfourstrategicoptions: 1. Nomainstreamdams 2. Deferreddecisiononallmainstreamdamsforasetperiod 3. Gradualdevelopmentofmainstreampower 4. Marketdrivendevelopmentoftheproposedprojects Figure58showsadecisionflowchartwhichoutlinestheSEArecommendationsassociatedwitheachofthe fourstrategicoptions.Thoserecommendedactionsaredescribedindetailinthesectionstofollowandtheir linkedannexes. 135
Figure58:Recommendationslinkedtoeachstrategicoption:todamornottodam

STRATEGICOPTION
Courseofactionforeachstrategicoption
1.1. ManagechangesinflowandsedimentduetoChineseandtributary dams 1.2. Explorepossiblyprovisionofanintegrateddonorstructural adjustmentpackage 1.3. Improveeffectivenessofmanagementforwater,naturalresources &ecosystemservices 1.4. AccelerateinvestmentinotherrenewableenergyoptionsandDSM inLMBcountries 1.5. DevelopalternativedesignsforharnessingenergyofMekong mainstreamwithoutdammingwholechannel 2.1. Agreearoadmapwithdecisionpointsforreconsidering"todamor nottodam" 2.2. DevelopalternativedesignstoharnessMekongenergywithout dammingthewholeriverchannel 2.3. Improveperformance,safetyandimpactmanagementdesignsof proposedprojectstocomplywithagreedstandards 2.4. Improveeffectivenessofagreedenvironmentalandsocialsafeguard mitigationmeasures 2.5. Improveunderstandingofnatural,socialandculturalresourcesand theirlimitstosustainabledevelopment 2.6. Improveeffectivenessofmanagementofwaterandnatural resourcesandecosystemservices 2.7. Developcapacityofexistinginstitutionstoregulate,monitor, enforcecomplianceforhydropower 2.8. Developnewinstitutionstoplanandmanagefuturehydropower fromMekongmainstream 2.9. DevelopMekongRegionalFundingMechanism
NODAMS
Nodevelopmentof mainstreamdams
DEFER
Deferreddecision onallMainstream damsforaset periodoftime
GRADUAL 3 DEVELOPMENT
Proceedinacautious& plannedmanner (2mainoptions)
3a
current projects
Usingexisting projectswith fullriverdams
3b
alternatives
Usingalternative designswithonly partialblockingof mainstream
3.1. DevelopphasingplanforMekongmainstreamdamsthat incorporates: 3.1.1. Extensivemonitoringofconstructionandoperationof dams 3.1.2. Complianceenforcement 3.1.3. Learningfromexperience,structured&timely 3.1.4. Flexibilityinimplementation,withabilitytochangeplan, abortprojects,adoptalternativeprojects 3.1.5. Consideralternativedesignswithpartialdammingof mainstream 3.2. Implementabovemeasuresapplicableto2,butwithshortertime frame
MARKET
Marketdriven developmentof existingprojects
4.1 Proposedprojectsdevelopedandconstructedasfastasdevelopers andregulatorsallowinresponsetomarketforelectricity 4.2 Norealplan: 4.2.1. Extensivemonitoringofconstructionandoperationof dams 4.2.2. Complianceenforcement 4.2.3. Learningfromexperience,adhocwithlittletimeto integrateexperience 4.2.4. Littleflexibilityinimplementation&abilitytochangeplan 4.3 Implementabovemeasuresapplicableto2,butwithevenlesstime
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21 THEMAINRECOMMENDATIONOFTHESEA
Following the analysis of potential impacts and benefits associated with the mainstream projects, and following an intensive program of consultations with more than 100 government and nongovernment agencies,theSEAteamhasreachedthefollowingmainrecommendation: Given the economic, social, cultural and ecological importance of the Mekong River as a free flowing systemconnectingthefourLowerMekongCountries; Given the increasingly threatened status of natural systems and resources in the region and growing pressuresonthem;and, Giventhefarreachingpotentialeffectsandremaininguncertaintiesrelatingtotheproposedmainstream projects; GiventheneedforanewapproachtodevelopmentoftheMekongRiverbetterfittingtherequirements oftheLMBripariancountriesandcommunitiesinthe21stCentury; TheSEAteamrecommends: 1. Decisionsonmainstreamdamsshouldbedeferredforaperiodoftenyears(strategicoption2)with reviews every three years to ensure that essential defermentperiod activities are being conducted effectively. As the highest priority, the deferment period would include a comprehensive undertaking of feasibility studies for partial inchannel, diversion and other innovative systems for tapping the power of the mainstreaminwayswhichdonotrequiredamsacrossthefullbreadthoftheriverchannel.Thiswould involvegovernmentsinpartnershipwithMRC,multilateraldevelopmentbanksanddevelopers. The deferment period would also include a comprehensive assessment and fast tracking of tributary projectsthatareconsideredfeasibleandecologicallysustainableaccordingtocurrentinternationalgood practice,includingretrofittingofexistingprojectsandinnovativeschemes. ThedefermentperiodneedstocommencewithasystematicdistributionoftheSEAreportwithineach LMBcountryandinnationallanguagesandconsultationwithlineagencies,privatesectorandtheNGO community. The Mekong mainstream should never be used as a test case for proving and improving full dam hydropowertechnologies.
2.
3.
4.
5.
22 RECOMMENDATIONFORSTRATEGICOPTION2DEFERMENT
22.1 DEFERMENTASACREATIVEANDPRODUCTIVESTRATEGYFORMAINSTREAM SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT
Defermentmustnotbeapassivepostponementofdambuilding.Itneedstobeanintenselycreativeand productivestrategyforsustainabledevelopmentoftheMekongmainstream.Defermentwouldprovidean opportunitytoplanforamoresustainableformofhydropowerdevelopmentthanisevidentinthecurrent proposedmainstreamprojects.Alternativeelectricitygeneratingcapabilityneedstobeexploredfromthe Mekongmainstreamwithoutjeopardizingtheecosystemconnectivityoftheriverandlivelihoodsofriparian communities,e.g.inchannelpartialdams,diversionsandalternativeschemes,suchashydrokineticinland systems(Annex2). ThehistoryofhydropowerdevelopmentconceptsfortheMekongshowsachangeinthinkingfromthehigh damsofthe1950stotherunofriverschemesdevelopedconceptuallyinthe1990s,whicharebeing proposednow.Thisevolutionreflectstheriseofsustainabilityguidanceintheregionalpowersector;thenext stepistoenhancetheprocessofintegratingthepowersectorintothesustainabledevelopmentofthe Mekonganditswaterresourcesthroughaunifiedplanningstructureandthedevelopmentofimproved technologieswhichhaveecologicallysustainableoutcomes. Mekonghydropowerdevelopmentforthe21stcenturywouldcombineoptimizingelectricitygenerationfrom theMekongmainstreamwith: Nonetlossinnaturalsystemassetsandenhancementofdegradedenvironmentsthrough rehabilitation,maintenanceandoffsets 137
Nonetlossofculturalandsocioeconomicassetsanddiversityamongripariancommunitiesand enhancementoflivelihoodopportunities NonetlossinthedevelopmentofothereconomicsectorsusingtheresourcesoftheMekongand enhancementofmultipleusesofitswaterandnaturalresources.
TherecommendationsforStrategicOption2Defermentarepresentedbelow.Thegeneralrecommendations fortheotherStrategicoptionsareintheannexes.
22.2 ROADMAPFORTHEDEFERMENTPERIOD
Agreeonaroadmapwithdecisionpointsforreconsidering"todamornottodam".Withthisoption,aroad mapwouldbeagreedbyallfourLMBcountriesspecifyingwhenthedecisiononmainstreamdamswouldbe consideredagain(ietheagreementwouldincludeasunsetclause).Inthemeantime,itisessentialthata numberofdifferentcoursesofactionarefollowedsothatabetterinformeddecisioncanbetaken.TheSEA teamrecommendsthatthedecisionisreconsideredafter10years.Progressinimplementingtheparallel coursesofactionforthedefermentperiodshouldbereviewedevery3years.
22.3 SOURCINGALTERNATIVEENERGYSOURCES
Fillingtheenergygap.Atleastduringthedefermentperiodandbeyondifthedecisionistakennottogo aheadwiththeMekongmainstreamdams,theenergythatwouldhavebeenprovidedbythesedamswould needtobesubstitutedbyconventionalpowersources,improvedgenerationcapacityonthetributariesand alternativesourcesofenergy.Nationalpowerplanswouldhavetobeadjustedtotakedefermentinto account,bearinginmindthattheMekongmainstreamdamsarepredictedtocontribute6%ofthetotal regionalelectricitydemandby2030. Fillingtheeconomicgap.Thecontributionoftheexportearningsfromhydropowertothenationaleconomies ofLaoPDRandCambodiawouldbeforegoneduringthedeferralperiod.Alternativepathwaysneedtobe foundforeconomicdevelopmentnotdependantontheimmediateeconomicbenefitfromMekong mainstreamhydropower.Thatmayinvolvespecialadjustmentpackagesconsolidatedbyinternational developmentpartners,especiallyforCambodia. DevelopalternativedesignsforharnessingenergyofMekongmainstreamwithoutdammingthewhole channel.ThecriticalfeatureoftheMekongthatwouldbelostbytheproposedmainstreamdamsisits ecologicalconnectivity.Schemesthatdonotthreatenthisconnectivitycouldbedeveloped,eventhoughthe electricitygeneratedmightbeatleastanorderofmagnitudelower.Itisrecommendedthatatechnicalreview ofsuchtechnologiesbeundertakenfollowedbyfeasibilitystudiesofappropriateschemeswithinthenext5 years.Bythetimethedefermentperiodisover,thefeasibilityofthesealternativeschemesneedstobe understoodandacomprehensiveassessmentofthemconductedsothatcomparisonscanbemadewiththe existingfulldamproposals.
22.4 MEKONGMAINSTREAMPLAN
PrepareaplanfortheMekongmainstream.Theintentionhereisnottoprepareaacomprehensive economicdevelopmentplanfortheMekongmainstream.Instead,whatisrequiredisaframeworkofzoning andsafeguardsagainstwhichanyproposalsfordevelopmentcouldbeassessed.Theframeworkwouldsetin placethosethingstheLMBcountrieswishtokeepforfuturegenerations.Suchadevelopmentplanning frameworkwouldconsiderthenaturalandsocialresourcesandvalues,determinetheenvironmental conditionsthatneedtobemaintainedandthecriticalassetsandstretchesoftheriverthatshouldbe protected.ThisisdifferentfromtheBasinDevelopmentPlanandshouldnotincludeindividualprojects, sectoraldevelopmentproposalsordevelopmentscenarios. Preparingthemainstreamplanningframeworkwouldrequireaseriesofstudiesto: Improveunderstandingofnatural,socialandculturalresourcesandtheirlimitstosustainable development.OneofthemainareasofuncertaintyisintheunderstandingoftheMekongecosystems,the naturalresourcesandthesocialandculturalresourcesthataredependentonthem.Notenoughisknown 138
aboutthepressuresandlimitstowhichthesesystemscanbetakenwithoutirrevocableharm.Duringthe defermentperiodasystematicsetofstudiesofthesesystemsandresourcesneedtobecarriedoutto increaseunderstandingofthemandtheirlimits.Thesestudiescontributetothedevelopmentofthe Mekongmainstreamplan. Improveeffectivenessofmanagementofwaterandnaturalresourcesandecosystemservices.Notenough isknownaboutthewaysinwhichthehydrologyandnaturalsystemsoftheMekongcanbemanaged withoutfurtherdegradation.Systematicmanagementapproaches,safeguardsandproceduresare neededcoveringthemainstreamandtributarieswhetherornotmainstreamdamsareeventually accepted.
22.5 INSTITUTIONS&CAPACITY
Developcapacityofexistinginstitutionstoregulate,monitorandenforcecomplianceforhydropower.Thepace andscaleofdevelopmentofhydropowerintheregionisstretchingthecapacityofexistinginstitutions. Defermentallowsinstitutionalstrengtheningtobecomefirmlygroundedinthedifferentnationalinstitutions. Thisrecommendationincludesarangeofinstitutionalstrengtheningandcapacitybuildingmeasuresat regional,nationalandprovinciallevelstoenableamoreeffectiveoversightandmanagementofhydropower developmentoftheMekongmainstreamandonthetributaries. Strengthenthecapacityofpowersectoragenciesforplanningandregulationofsustainablehydropower development.TheproposalsfortheMekongmainstreamareaimedatmaximizingelectricitygenerationand profit,thoughthismaybeattheexpenseofotherdevelopmentsectors.Somerecognitionoftheneedfor moderationhasbeenincorporatedinrecentoptimizationstudies.Thisrecommendationisaimedat encouragingmultisectorplanningandregulationformultipleuseofthewaterandnaturalresourceswhether onthemainstreamortributaries. DevelopnewregionalinstitutionalmechanismstoplanandmanagemultisectordevelopmentontheMekong mainstream.TheMRCcontributestoMekongBasinplanningthroughtheBDPprocess.TheBDPhasadopted developmentscenariosbasedonnationalprojectconceptsfortheentirebasin.Ithasnotfocusedon developingspecificplansfortheMekongmainstream.ThroughthePNPCAprocess,MRChasacapacityto review,consultandadviseonspecificprojectproposals.TheMRChasnomechanismforbasinwide regulationofhydropowerorotherformsofsectordevelopmentontheMekongmainstream.Itis recommendedthatthepotentialforMRCtoundertaketheseresponsibilitiesbeconsideredthroughreviewof the1995MekongAgreementandformulationofadditionalprotocols.Ideally,Chinawouldneedtobe involvedinsuchaplanning,reviewandregulatorymechanismfullMekongRivercoveragemayneedtobe developedinstages. Developanindependentregulatoryauthorityformainstreamhydropowerwhichhasthetechnicalcapacity, andlegalmandatetosetandenforcedesign,maintenanceandoperationalstandards. DevelopaMekongRiverBasinManagementFund.AMekongregionalfundingmechanismshouldbe establishedtofinancearangeofactivitiesincludingtransboundarymitigationandbenefitsharing,heritage protectionandenhancement,researchanddevelopment,andmonitoring.Thefundwouldhelpsupport planningandcoordinationofMekongmainstreamdevelopment.Sourcesofrevenuecouldincluderevenue fromtariffs,contributionsfromdevelopers,developmentpartners(bilateralandmultilateralIFIs)and Dialoguepartners.Newfinancingsourcessuchasinternationalcarbonfinancingmightalsobeapplied.The MRCmightbeanappropriatevehicletoadministersuchafund.Itisrecommendedthatthefeasibilityof establishingaMekongFundbestudiedduringtheearlypartofthedefermentperiod,leadingto implementation.Thefundisneededwhetherornotmainstreamhydropoweriseventuallyaccepted.
22.6 MAKINGHYDROPOWERSUSTAINABLE
Improveperformance,safetyandimpactmanagementdesignsofhydropowerprojectstocomplywithagreed standardsandsustainabilitycriteria.TheproposalsfortheMekongmainstreamdamsarebeingpromotedbya numberofdeveloperswithdifferentapproachesandexperienceindamconstructionandoperation.Only recentlyhastheMRCproducedpreliminarytechnicaldesignguidanceforhydropower,whichhasbeen acceptedbythefourLMBcountries.Theguidanceisasteptowardsdefinitivestandardsforhydropower.In thedefermentperiod,itisrecommendedthatthesestandardsbefinalisedandbeappliedconsistentlyto 139
existingandanyfuturemainstreamandalternativesproposals.Also,allhydropowerproposalsshouldbe assessedaccordingtothesustainabilitycriteriadescribedbytheInternationalHydropowerAssociationinits SustainabilityAssessmentProtocol. Improveeffectivenessofmitigationmeasurestocomplywithagreedenvironmentalandsocialsafeguards.As withthedesignrecommendationabove,greaterattentiontothedetailofmitigationmeasuresfor environmentalandsocialsafeguardsforhydropowerprojectsisrequiredtofitwiththesustainabilitycriteria. Itisrecommendedthatduringthedefermentperiodeachmainstreamprojectshouldreconsiderandimprove theproposedmitigationmeasuresinthelightofbestinternationalpracticeandtechnology. Developandstartimplementingalternativelivelihoodandnutritionalsecurityreplacementprograms.Socially sustainableprogrammesfordevelopmentofalternativelivelihoodoptionstoincreaseincomesofpotentially affectedpersonsalongtheMekongmainstream(notjustthosedisplacedbythereservoirs)areneeded.One aimwouldbetosupplementdependenceonwildfishcapturefromtheMekongasasourceofnutritional security.Suchprogramsareneededtoenhanceadaptabilityandresiliencewhetherornotmainstreamproject areeventuallyaccepted.
22.7 THETENYEARDEFERMENTTIMEFRAME
Thetenyeartimeframefordefermentisrecommendedbecauseitallowssufficienttimetoreduce uncertaintiesaboutthechangesinthenaturalandsocioeconomicsystems,anduncertaintiesaboutthe effectivenessofproposedavoidanceandmitigationmeasures. Tenyearsisrequiredfor: (i) Confirmingthatchangesintheriverflowssediments,rivermorphology,ecosystemspredicted underthedefinitefuturescenarioby2015areaccurate,givinggreaterconfidenceinthepredictions for2030andbeyond. (ii) Confirming(ornot)thattheproposedmainstreamprojectsarethebestavailable,mosteffectiveand sustainabletechnology,havingconsideredthefeasibilityofotheralternativesforgeneratingelectricity fromtheMekongmainstream (iii) Developingeffectivemitigationstrategies(ornot)forthecurrentlyunresolvedimpactssuchasfish passage,ecosystemconnectivity,sedimentmanagementandnutrientflows.Furtherdevelopmentinto suchmitigationmeasureswillhighlightwhethertheseimpactscanbeminimisedorremaintobe consideredastradeoffs. (iv) Developingstrategiesandmeasuresforensuringalternativelivelihoodsandreducingvulnerabilityof theripariancommunities,basedontheexperienceofdamsonthetributaries (v) Developingmechanismsforeffectivebenefitsharingbothincountryandacrossnationalboundaries, basedupontheexperienceofdamsontributaries. (vi) Strengtheningandputtinginplacethenecessaryregulatoryandmonitoringinstitutionsatnational andregionallevels. (vii) Establishingfinancingmechanisms(e.g.aMekongFund)toenablecontinuingeffectivemanagement oftheMekongandallitsdevelopment(i.e.notjusthydropower)
23 IMPLICATIONSOFCHOOSINGSTRATEGICOPTION1NOLMB MAINSTREAMDAMS
ItislikelythatthedemandforharnessingthepowerpotentialoftheMekongmainstreamwillremain.There willneedtobeaprocessofactiveplanning,considerationofalternativesanddecisionmakingbasedonthe bestavailableinformationandtechnologiesthatisencapsulatedinStrategicOption2.ShouldLMBcountries chosetoadoptOption1,manyofactionsrequiredforOption2wouldberequiredincluding: Fillingtheenergygap.Inthiscase,longtermalternativeenergyplanningneedstobeimplemented. Fillingtheeconomicgap.Thecontributionoftheexportearningsfromthemainstreamhydropower proposalstothenationaleconomiesofLaoPDRandCambodiawouldbeforegoneandalternative pathwayswouldneedtobefoundforeconomicdevelopment.
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DevelopalternativedesignsforharnessingenergyofMekongmainstreamwithoutdammingthewhole channel.Feasibilitystudiesintouseofalternativeschemesthatdonotdamagetheconnectivityofthe Mekongwouldbeneeded. Enhancethecapacitiesofhydropowerdamsonthetributariestakingintoaccountchanged hydrologicalregimes,climatechange,improvementsinsustainablehydropowerdesign DevelopaplanfortheMekongmainstream.Thisplanwillalsoberequiredtomanagethewaterand naturalresourcessustainably o Improveunderstandingofnatural,socialandculturalresourcesandtheirlimitstosustainable development. o Improveeffectivenessofmanagementofwaterandnaturalresourcesandecosystem services. o ManageandutilisechangesinflowandsedimentduetoChineseandtributarydams. Hydrologicalchangesareoccurringthiswillrequireappropriatemanagementmeasures. Studiesandmanagementmeasuresarerequiredtofeedintotheplan. Developregionalinstitutionalmechanismsandcapacitybuildingofnationalagencies,willalsobe requiredforsustainablemanagementoftheMekongmainstreambutwithouttheemphasison hydropowerregulationandoperation. DeveloplivelihoodsandmaintainingfoodsecurityforMekongripariancommunities.Emphasiswill havetobeplacedonensuringthattheripariancommunitiescontinuetodevelopandusethewater andnaturalresourcesoftheMekongsustainably.
24 IMPLICATIONSOFCHOOSINGSTRATEGICOPTIONS3OR4GRADUAL& MARKETDRIVENDEVELOPMENT
ThemaindifferencebetweenchoiceofStrategicOptions3and4relatestothepace,timingandscaleof developmentofhydropowerontheMekongmainstream.Alloftherecommendedcoursesofactionforoption 2areapplicableexceptforfillingtheenergyandeconomicgapresultingfromnotdevelopingordeferringthe decisiononthemainstreamdams. ThemaindifferencebetweenOption2andOption3isadecisiontocommittoatleastsomeoftheproposed damsoftheMekongmainstream,acceptingthechangesthatthiswillinvolve,beforeacomplete understandingandpreparednessforthesechangesisinplace.Implementationofallthemeasuressuggested foroption2shouldbeundertakentoensuresustainabilityoftheplan,butwithinamuchshortertimeframe andmorepressurefordevelopmentthanwouldbeideal.EspeciallyimportantforOption3istheneedtoset inplacearegionalapproachforcoordination,managementandregulationpriortocommencementofany projects. IfStrategicOption3gradualdevelopmentofmainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentischosen,aphasingand benefitsharingplanforMekongmainstreamdamsshouldbeagreedbytheLMBcountriesbeforeany developmentproceeds,incorporating: (i) Aclearpolicycommitmenttoensurethoseadverselyaffectedwillreceivebenefitsfrommainstream hydropowerdevelopment (ii) Areviewofthesustainabilityofalltheproposedschemeswithprioritizationandphasing (iii) Acoordinatedprogrammeformonitoringconstructionandoperationofdams (iv) Complianceenforcement (v) Sharingofinformationandlearningfromexperienceinastructuredandtimelymanner (vi) Flexibilityinimplementationwithabilitytochangetheplan,cancelcertainprojectsordevelop alternatives. (vii) Considerationofalternativehydropowersystemswithpartialdammingofmainstreamchannel IfStrategicOption4Developmentofmainstreamdamsdrivenbymarketforcesischosen,theproposed projectswouldbedevelopedandconstructedasfastasdeveloperscanfinalisedesigns,agreeon environmentalandsocialmanagementplansandreachagreementsontariffs.Thedeveloperswouldmanage eachprojectindependentofanoverallcoordinationframework.Theregulatorswouldplayanimportantrole inensuringcomplianceandtryingtoencouragetheschemestoimplementcomprehensiveenvironmentand socialmanagementplans.ThisoptioncommitstheLMBtothecurrentproposalswithminorchangesindesign andmitigationmeasures,withlittleopportunitytoexplorealternativeoptions.
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Itrecognisesthatthereisnosystematicplantoguidemainstreamdevelopandnotransboundaryregulation. Neverthelesstheappropriatenationalandregionalinstitutionsshouldensurethatthereisinplace: a) Coordinatedprogrammeformonitoringconstructionandoperationofdams b) Complianceenforcement c) Sharingofinformationandlearningfromexperienceinastructuredandtimelymanner Wherepossiblethecoursesofactionapplicabletooption2shouldbeimplemented,butrecognizingthatthere maynotbeadequatetimeandcapacitytoapplythem,andthattheeffectivenessofthesemeasuresmaybe limited.
25 SETTINGPRIORITIESINIMPLEMENTINGRECOMMENDATIONS
TherecommendationsderivedfromtheanalysisofeachofthekeythemesaddressedbytheSEA(i.e.energy andpower,economics,socialsystems,hydrologyandsediment,aquaticsystems,fisheries,terrestrialsystems andclimatechange)havebeengroupedbytype.Theseincludethestudiesthatarerequiredtomakean informeddecisionortoimprovetheeffectivenessandsustainabilityofmainstreamdams,thepolicychanges thatwillberequired,theinstitutionalarrangementsandcapacitybuilding,theimprovementsinhydropower designandmitigationmeasuresandenvironmentalandsocialsafeguardsrequired.Theprioritiesforactionfor eachoftheserecommendationtypesarefocusedonassistingthedecisionofwhetherornottodamthe Mekongmainstream.
25.1 STUDIESREQUIRED
ThefulllistofstudiesrequiredisfoundinAnnex2,arrangedbykeytheme.Priorityisgiventothosestudies thatwillbeessentialtomakeaninformeddecisiononthemainstreamdams.Thesestudiesshouldbe undertakenduringthetenyeardefermentperiod.Theyinclude: Sediment/nutrientdynamics:Thecomprehensivestudiesofthesediment/nutrientdynamicsinthe Mekongtocomplementtheexistingdetailofthehydrologicaldynamicsofthesystem.Thisshouldbe extendedtocoverthemarinesedimentplumeandcoastalerosion,andthetransportofnutrientsinto thefloodplain. Aquatichabitats:ThesurveyofaquatichabitatsintheMekongsothatcriticalhabitatsandbiodiversity hotspotscanbeincorporatedaszonesforspecialprotectionintotheoverallMekongmainstreamplan. Fishpassage:ResearchanddevelopmentofsystemsforfishpassagesuitablefortheMekongfish migrations,usingopportunitiesfortrialingontributaryhydropowerschemes. Ripariancommunities:Socialstudiestoclarifythedependenceofripariancommunities(especially thosethatmightbeimpactedbymainstreamdams)uponthenaturalresourcesoftheMekong, includingfisheries,waterresources,riverbankgardensetcleadingtodevelopmentofalternative livelihoodandpovertyalleviationstrategies. Climatechange:Comprehensiveclimatechangestudiesofsubbasinstodefinethetrendsandranges ofclimatechangeandextremeeventsthatneedtobeincorporatedintothevarietyofsectoral adaptationplans,includinghydropower. Alternativehydropower:Reviewofpotentialforalternativehydropowerschemesthatdonotaffect themainstreamconnectivityfollowedbyfeasibilitystudiesforselectedsystemsthroughouttheLMB, includinginitialassessmentsoftheirenvironmentalandsocialimpacts. Alternativeenergy:Studiesonalternativeenergysourcestofillthegapifmainstreamdamsare deferred. Macroeconomics:Studiesonmacroeconomicimplicationsofforegoingmainstreamdams Mekongfund:FeasibilitystudyforestablishingaMekongFund. Hydropowerdesign:Studiestoimprovetheperformanceandeffectivenessoftheexistingproposals formainstreamdams,especiallyforensuringhydrologicalandsedimentflows,andforenvironmental andsocialsafeguards. 142
25.2 POLICY&GUIDANCEREQUIRED
ThefulllistofpolicyandguidancerecommendationsisshowninAnnex3,arrangedbykeytheme.Priorityis giventothosepoliciesessentialfortheDefermentOption.Manyofthesepolicychangesandguidancewill dependonthefindingsofthestudies.Theseinclude: Energybalance:Thebalanceofalternativeenergysourcesinnationalpowerplansifmainstreamdams arenotbuilt,includingconventionalandrenewablesources,anddemandsidemanagement Structuraladjustment:Economicdevelopmentpackagesthatwillsupportotherenergysources,and mitigatetheeconomicopportunitieslostifthemainstreamdamsarenotbuilt,including: o Economicsupportforagriculture o Economicsupportforfisheriesdevelopment Benefitsharing:Thedevelopmentoftransboundaryandnationaltolocalbenefitsharingmechanisms, usingtheexperiencesoftriallingwithhydropowerschemesontheMekongtributaries Transboundarymanagement:Definingandaddressingthegapsinpolicyandlegislationfortrans boundaryimpactsandequityinapplicationofsafeguardspolicies,monitoringandevaluation proceduresforhydropowerprojects,andcomprehensive,transparenttransboundarygrievance procedures. Climatechange:Definitionofaclearlycommunicatedsetofclimatechangetrendsandrangesofrisk foreachsubbasinintheMekonglikelytoaffectdevelopmentsectors,suchashydropower,fisheries andagriculture,andnavigation.
25.3 INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSANDCAPACITYBUILDING
ThefulllistofinstitutionalandcapacitybuildingrecommendationsisshowninAnnex4,arrangedbykey theme.Thepriorityactionsthatneedtobetakeninclude: Regionalregulatorybody:EstablishaMekongRiverdevelopmentregulatorybodycoveringallformsof developmentthat,amongstotherthings,setsguidingcriteriafordesignandoperationofmainstream dams,coordinationofoperation,damsafety,emergencymanagementprocedures,environmental flowsandsocialsafeguards,withamandateforenforcement. Mekongfund:EstablishaMekongFund,baseduponthefindingsofthefeasibilitystudymentioned above Transboundarymanagement:Strengtheningcapacitiesforthemanagementoftransboundaryrisks associatedwithMekongmainstreamprojects. SEAs,ESIAsandEMPs:Strengthenthecapacitiesofnationalandprovincialauthoritiesforconducting SEAsandassessingandappraisingESIAsandEMPs,andimplementingandenforcingenvironmental andsocialsafeguards Monitoringofenvironmentalperformance:Strengthenthecapacitiesofnationalagenciestomonitor andevaluatetheflowsandenvironmentalqualityinthemainstream,andtheperformanceof hydropowerschemesinaddressingenvironmentalandsocialimpacts. Informationsharing:Strengthenthesharingofinformation,bothnationallyandwithinthebasin, abouttheMekongandhydropowerdevelopment,includingexperiencesofmonitoringandevaluating environmentalandsocialimpactsandmitigationmeasures,toencouragelearningandadaptive management.
25.4 IMPROVEMENTSINHYDROPOWERDESIGNANDMITIGATIONMEASURES
ThelistofrecommendedimprovementsinhydropowerdesignandmitigationmeasuresisshowninAnnex5.It isimportanttheseareinvestigatedduringthedefermentperiod,beingtriedandtestedonthetributaries, givingtimetoproveappropriateandsustainablehydropowerschemesfortheMekongmainstream.Such evidencecanthenbeusedtoinfluencethedecisiontobuildornottobuildmainstreamprojectsattheendof thetenyearperiod.Thepriorityactionsinclude: Applybestpracticeguidance:Ensuringthatallproposedprojectscomplywithinternationalbest practiceandMRCPreliminaryDesignGuidanceandrulesandregulationscoveringconstructionand operation. Eliminatehighimpactactions:Reconsiderandprohibithighimpactproposals,includinglocations, continuousoperationstrategies,reductionsinoperatingwaterlevels Testalternativestofulldams:Reviewandcarryoutfeasibilitystudiesforalternativedesignsthat incorporatepartialinchannelschemes,diversionsandinnovativedesignsforhydropower. 143
Testfishpassageintributaries:Develop,buildandimprovefishpassagesontributarydamsthatcan allowagreaterproportionofmigratingfishtopassupstreamanddownstreamofhydropower projects. Reducerisks:Reviewproposedprojectstoreducerisksoffloodingandimpactonirrigatedlandand lowernumbersofpeoplethatwouldrequireresettlement Applymultipleuse:Developtheproceduresandmechanismstoallowmultipleuseofreservoirsonthe Mekongmainstream Improveshiplocks:DesignallMekongmainstreamdamstoaccommodateshiplocksaccordingtothe MRCPreliminaryDesignGuidance Adjusttoclimatechange:Ensurethatalldamsbeingproposedhaveadequatelyaddressedtherisksof extremeeventscausedbyclimatechange,asspecifiedbytheMRCclimatechangeguidance
25.5 ENVIRONMENTAL&SOCIALSAFEGUARDS
ThelistofrecommendedenvironmentalandsocialsafeguardsarrangedbykeythemeisshowninAnnex6. MostoftheseareessentialelementsofanyhydropowerschemeontheMekongmainstreamortributary. TheyareespeciallyimportantfortheproposalsfortheMekongmainstream.Thepracticalimplicationofsome willneedtobedevelopedduringthedefermentperiod,sothattheycanbeappliedeffectivelyintheeventof adecisiontogoaheadwiththemainstreamdams.Itisimportantthattheyaretriedandtestedinthe tributarydamsbeforebeingappliedintheMekongmainstream. Severalrecommendationsstandoutaspriorities: Transboundarysafeguards:Developmechanismsforapplicationoftransboundarysafeguards, supportiveofnationalsafeguardsystems Protectionofnaturalandsocialsystemassets:Ensurethatproposedprojectsrespecttheprotected riverstretches,identifiedintheMekongmainstreamplan Introducebenefitsharingarrangementsbothbetweenstatesandfromnationaltolocaltoencouragea moreequitabledistributionofthebenefitsamongstthosemostatrisk(Box1). Box1:Guidanceforbenefitsharingmechanisms
Guidanceforbenefitsharingmechanisms
ComparingCompensationandBenefitsharing
Compensationfocusesonwelldefined,directandoftenlocalisedimpacts;Oftenforphysicalassets;Usually shorttermduringconstructionperiode.g.compensationpaymentsforland,housing Benefitsharingfocusesonenhancementandmitigation;Providesastreamofresourcesforthelifetimeofthe project(longterm);Canaddressbroaderimpactse.g.livelihoodsupportprograms
Sourcesoffundsforbenefitsharing
Thesourceoffundsforbenefitsharingactivitiesofmainstreamprojectsfrom: Directlyfromrevenues(eitheronpowertarifforwatercharges) Directequitysharing(usingreturnonprojectequityasanincomestream) Hostgovernmentbudgettransferstoaffectedareas/sectors/countries Levyingpropertytaxesonlandofpowerfacilitiesandreservoir Benefitsinkind(power,water)toaffectedcommunities(limitedapplicabilityforbasinwideandtrans boundaryimpacts) Usesoffundsaspartofanintegrateddevelopmentplanningapproach Sectoralstructuraladjustmentprograms Areafocusedsupportforaffectedcommunities Broadersocialdevelopmentprograms Transboundarytransfers
Benefitsharingarrangements
Basinwidebenefitsharingfund AgreedprinciplesforuseoffundsbetweenallLMBcountries ProjectbasisVSdirectbudgetsupport(targetedatnationalorlocallevel) Monitoringsystemforallocationanduseoffunds Underabasinwideauthoritywithadequatetechnicalcapacitytomanagefunds
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26 RECOMMENDATIONSFORTHEMEKONGRIVERCOMMISSION
Mostoftherecommendationsproposedhaveregionalapplicationorshouldbeappliedineachofthefour countries.However,anumberofrecommendationsarespecifictoacountry,andthesearealsolistedinthe Annexes.SomerecommendationswerederivedfromthecountrygroupconsultationsatthefinalSEA workshop.Box2summarisesthemainrecommendationconcerningthestrategicoptionsofthenationaland internationalworkinggroups.Thedetailedrecommendationsofeachworkinggroupareoutlinedbelow: Box2:StrategicoptionsselectedbySEAworkinggroups
StrategicoptionsselectedbyworkinggroupsattheSEAAvoidance,MitigationandEnhancement Workshop,HoChiMinhCity,VietNam29June2010
OverthefullseconddayofthefinalregionalSEAconsultationworkshop,countrygroupsofthefourLowerMekong Countriesplusoneinternationalgroupwereaskedtoidentifyrecommendationsforeachofthestrategicoptionsforeach countryandtoindicatethepreferredchoiceofstrategicoption.Therewere120peopleatthemeetingwithabout20 personsineachgroupwithrepresentativesofgovernmentlineagencies,hydropowerdevelopers,academics,civilsociety andNGOs,aswellasdonorsandinternationalorganizations.Allgroupscalledforcontinuingconsultationanddiscussionon translatedversionsofthereportpriortomainstreamprojectdecisions.Strategicoptionschoiceswere: Cambodiagroup:Astrategicoptionwasnotselected,buttherewasastrongrequestformoretimeforfurther consultationontheSEAreport LaoPDRgroup:PreferredOption3,butrequestedawiderdiscussionontheissuesandconsultationontheSEA report Thailandgroup:PreferredOption1and2,thoughwouldnotopposeifallLMBcountrieswantedOption3 VietNamgroup:PreferredOption1or2 International:PreferredOption2andrecognisedthatOption3couldbeasubsetofoption2,requiringdeferment whileactiveplanningwasconducted.
26.1 CAMBODIA
ThespecificrecommendationsforCambodiainclude: Reassesspowerdemand/supplyinthenextfive/tenyears Developeconomicsupportpackagesforotherenergysourcesincludinginvestigationofpossiblefossil fuelreserves,supportforthermalplantsandconnectionwithLaotributaryhydropowergeneration. Providedonorsupportpackagestopromotetheinvestigationofalternativeenergyoptions Economywidestructuraladjustmentpackagestomitigatetheeconomicimpactsofforegoingor delayingmainstreamprojectsinCambodia. Supportforexpansionofthenationalgridanddecentralisedrenewableenergyproductiontoaddress ruralenergypoverty. Carefullyweightheprosandconsofthe460MWvs.2600MWoptionsforSamborandrevisethe plansofeachprojecttoencompassenvironmentalconsiderations,especiallypartialdammingoptions AssessimpactofMekongtributariesdamsonSambordam Conductmorestudies: o DefineenvironmentalflowrequirementfortheMekonginCambodia(sedimentload/flood plainhabitatlose) o Reassessproductionandpotentialofreservoirfisheriesandaquaculture o Reassesslossofdownstreamfloodplainhabitatsandlossoffishproduction o Groundwaterrecharge/connectivity:addressthechangestogroundwaterconnectivityin theCambodianfloodplainswithafocuson:(i)changestotheseasonalwatertable,(ii) impactsonarseniclevels,(ii)potentialsalinisationofgroundwaterthroughtheelevationof thewatertable o TonleSapsystem:explorethechangestotheseasonalfloodedareaoftheTonleSap(and implicationsforfloodedforest),thechangeinthehydraulicgradientdrivingreversalinthe TonleSapaswellasrevisethesedimentbalanceforthesystem. o Floodplainfertility:Establishalongtermmonitoringprogrammetoassessthepotentialloss ofannualsiltdepositiononthefloodplain,resultinginlossofnutrientsforsoilfertility TheRamsarConventionshouldbeinformedassoonaspossibleaboutthepotentialthreatstoStung Treng,requestinginclusionontheMontreuxRecordofthreatenedinternationalwetlands.Inthe eventofadecisiontogoaheadwiththeStungTrengdam,theRamsarsitestatuswouldhavetobe assessed,andmaybelost.Specificcompensationmeasuresforlossoflandscapeamenityandaquatic biodiversityatStungTrengRamsarsitewouldberequired 145
26.2 LAOPDR
ThespecificrecommendationsforLaoPDR,developedduringthefinalconsultationworkshopinclude: Reorientationofenergyplansawayfromadependenceonmainstreamhydropower. Accelerateandenhanceproductionfromhydropowerdevelopmentonthetributaries Developeconomicsupportpackagesforotherenergysources,includingsupportforthegridand decentralisedrenewableenergyproductiontoaddressruralenergypoverty. Economywidestructuraladjustmentpackagestomitigatetheeconomicimpactsofforegoingor delayingmainstreamprojectsinLaoPDR. Emphasisestudiesandresearchonmultipleuseofreservoirs,environmentalflows,areviewof culturalassets,andsustainabilityassessmentsofeachdam Ifthedecisionistakenforgradualdevelopmentofmainstreamdams: LocalInvestmentmaximization:ensureuseoflocallaborandgoodsbyprovidingsubsidiesand trainingprograms Sustaineconomicgrowthandlivelihoodforaffectedpeople,upstreamanddownstream Ensureandenforcefaircompensationpaymentsforaffectedcommunities. DevelopaBenefitSharingFundtofunddevelopmentandenvironmentalprotectionactivitiesforboth tributaryandmainstreamprojects. Developmechanismsforreservoirandwatershedmanagement IntheeventofadecisiontobuildBanKoumdam,specificcompensationmeasuresforlossof landscapeamenityandaquaticbiodiversityassociatedwithPhouXiangThongNationalProtected Area
26.3 THAILAND
Duringtheconsultationworkshop,theThaicountrygroupsupporteddraftrecommendationsassociatedwith StrategicOptions1and2includedintheworkshophandouts.Inadditionthegrouprecommended: PendingadecisionontheMekongmainstreamdams,theThaiPowerDevelopmentPlanshould clearlyexcludepowergenerationfromthemainstreamdams,sothatthereisnodependenceor expectationbuiltup. Thailandmayneedtousemoreconventionalalternatives,inadditiontorenewableenergyand demandsidemanagementtomeetincrementaldemand Conductresearchonnaturalresourcesandenvironmentalimpactofhydropowerdevelopmentin Thailandforbaselineinformationincludingcompilationofpastexperiences,sothatresultscanbe usedforconsideringthesuitabilityoftheprojectproposals ThetwogovernmentsofThailandandLaoPDRshouldaddresstheissueoflossofdefinitionofthe sovereignboundariesbetweenthetwocountriesassociatedwithsomemainstreamprojects,and cometomutuallyacceptableagreement IntheeventofadecisiontobuildBanKoumdam,specificcompensationmeasuresforlossof landscapeamenityandaquaticbiodiversityassociatedwithPhaTaemNationalParkwillberequired.
26.4 VIETNAM
DuringtheconsultationworkshoptheVietNamgrouprecommended: Studiesandanalysistofillgapsorreduceuncertaintiesrelatingtokeystrategicissueswouldbe necessary,including: o Marinesediment/nutrientplume:(i)mapthechangestotheextentandmovementofthe marineplume,and(ii)detailedhydrodynamicmodellingofoceanprocesseswithafocuson biogeochemistryoffreshsaltwaterinteractionsandsedimenttransport. o Coastalerosion:quantifythesitesandrateoferosioninthecontextofthereduced sedimentloadpredictedbythearrayofdamsproposedforLancang/MekongandtheCentral Highlands. o Groundwaterrecharge/connectivity:addressthechangestogroundwaterconnectivityin theCambodianfloodplainsandtheMekongDeltawithafocuson:(i)changestotheseasonal 146
watertable,(ii)potentialsalinisationofgroundwaterthroughtheelevationofthewater table o ChangesinextentofMekongdelta,becauseofreducedsedimentsupplyfromtheriver. Expectedresultinglossofstabilityofbanksofdeltaicchannelsandmaincoastline.Lossof fishpondandmangroveproducingareas. Monitoring o NationalagenciesinVietNamshouldestablishalongtermmonitoringprogrammetoassess sedimentchangesinMekongDelta. o Monitorpassageoffinesedimentandassociatednutrientsdownthesystem,includinginthe MekongPlume. o MonitorfishcatchesintheMekongPlume o MonitorsedimentloaddownstreamandagriculturalproductivityintheMekongDelta Institutionalinnovationatnationalanddeltalevelformoreeffectiveplanningofhydropower sustainability Laws,regulationsandprocedures,includingscopeofimpactsandresponsibilitiesforimplementing& monitoringavoidance&mitigationmeasures Ifthedecisionistakenforgradualdevelopmentofmainstreamdams,VietNamwillhaveto: Monitorimpactscarefully Setupinstitutionstocarryoutmitigationmeasures Securecompensationpaymentsfromdevelopersformitigationmeasures ShifttheeconomyoftheMekongDeltaawayfromagricultureandfisheries Developfoodsupplysourcesinotherpartofthecountriestoensurefoodsecurity Plantocopewithsocialimpactsifmigrationawayfromthedeltaisnecessary Securealongtermpowerpurchaseagreementatpriceslowerthanthoseofenergysupply alternativessuchasoilbasedelectricitywithinthecountry(USD70/MWh) Makesurethatthereisnounilateralsuspensionofenergydeliveriesresultingfromdomestic shortagesintheexportingcountry.67
27 RECOMMENDATIONSFORTHEMEKONGRIVERCOMMISSION
TherehavebeenanumberofrecommendationsarisingoutofwholeSEAprocessfortheMekongRiver Commission.Thesearesubdividedintofourgroups:i)thePNPCAprocess,ii)basinplanningprocessesiii) guidanceandstandardsandiv)aMekongFund.
27.1 THEPNPCAPROCESS
AnimportantreasonforinitiatingtheSEAwastoprovideanoverallstrategicframeworkfortheassessmentof individualmainstreamprojectsastheyentertheMRCPNPCAprocessthroughLMBcountrynotifications. TodatetherehasbeennomajordevelopmentsontheLMBMekongmainstream,e.g.mainstreamdams,large irrigationschemesorriverbasindiversionssothePNPCAprocesshasnotyetbeeninvoked.ThePNPCA processstartswhenthecountryconcernedconsiderthattheyhaveenoughdetailandinformationforan adequateconsultationandagreementprocesstotakeplaceamongstallfourmembercountries.TheMRChas developedtheproceduresandguidanceforthisprocessofnotification,consultationandagreement(posted ontheMRCwebsite). TheSEAfindingsandalltheassociatedinformationandanalysiswouldbetakenintoaccountasproject proposalsarenotified.OthermajorsourcesofguidancetothePNPCAprocessinclude: ThedocumentsprovidedbythegovernmentthefeasibilitystudiesandESIAreportsfortheproposed projectbeingconsidered TheMRCsPreliminaryDesignGuidanceforhydropowerdevelopmentontheMekongmainstream
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In2001ArgentinasuspendedgasdeliveriescontractedbyChiletomitigatepublicoutcryduringanenergycrisis.Chile, whichhadbecomehighlyreliantonArgentinegasisstillrecuperatingfromtheshockandtherelationsbetweenthetwo countrieswereseverelystrained
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TheBDPreportsandassessmentsofimpactsofvariousdevelopmentscenarios,whichincludewith andwithoutthemainstreamdams AnyotherMRCSstudiesandtechnicaldocumentsconsideredusefulandrelevant. ThefullbodyoftheSEAreportsprovidestheoverallstrategiccontextforthefocusedprojectbyproject assessments.TheSEAshouldbeusedforsystematiccomparisonofhowtheproposedprojectsrelatetothe strategicconcerns,andhowtheprojectdesignershaveaddressedandmitigatedtheseconcerns.TheSEAdoes notprovideacomprehensivecumulativeimpactassessment.TheESIAoftheproposedprojectshouldincludea detailedassessmentofcumulativeimpactsanditscontributiontothese. ThePNPCAprocessspecifiestheconsultationwithinthevariousMRCandNMCbodies,butdoesnot necessarilyspecifyconsultationwithinthecountries,e.g.atnational,provincialordistrictlevel.Althoughthis willhavebeendoneattheESIAstagebyandforthedevelopers,someformofmoreindependentconsultation processwouldbeappropriatetobringforwardtheviewsoflineagencies,CSOs,andNGOs.TheSEAprovidesa modelforsuchconsultations.ItisrecommendedthattheMRCapplysuchaconsultationprocessinupcoming PNPCAapplications. Anothertoolwhichcouldbeusedtoassessthesustainabilityoftheproposedprojectagainstinternational bestpracticeistheSustainabilityAssessmentProtocol,(SectionII)developedbytheInternational HydropowerAssociation.Thisreviewcouldbecarriedoutbyateamofindependentassessorswiththe collaborationofthedevelopersandtheregulatingagencies.ItisrecommendedthatMRCconsiderapplication oftheSAPtocontributetothePNPCAprocess. Itisalsorecommendedthataduediligencereviewofproposeddevelopers'pastperformanceshouldbe conductedaspartofPNPCAreviewprocessorthataccessbegiventothegovernmentsownduediligence reports.Thatreviewwouldassessthedevelopersperformanceinapplyingnationalsocial,economicand environmentalsafeguards,andinpreparingandimplementingrobustandeffectivedamsafetyprocedures, includingdownstreamreleaseearlywarningsystems. Theproposedmainstreamdamswilllastforover50years,bywhichtimetheimpactsofclimatechangewillbe evident.ThePNPCAprocessshould: (iii) includearequestforadetailedstatementfromthedevelopersofhowtheproposeddesignhasbeen adaptedtotaketherisksofclimatechangeintoaccount (iv) provide(throughtheMRCCCAI)asetoftrendsandrangesasthebasicstandardsforclimatechange thatdevelopersmustapplyintheirdesignproposals.
27.2 BASINPLANNINGPROCESS 27.2.1 AMEKONGMAINSTREAMPLAN

MRCshouldprepareaMekongMainstreamPlanthroughwideconsultationwithLMBcountries:Duringthe courseoftheSEA,afundamentalgapthathasbecomeapparentistheabsenceofaplanfortheMekongRiver mainstream(asopposedtotheBasinDevelopmentPlan).Thereisnoanalyticalframeworkdefiningthecritical stretchesoftheMekongRiverfromanecological,culturalorsocialviewpointwhichneedspecialmanagement measuresandagainstwhichdevelopmentshydropower,irrigation,waterabstractionanddiversion,and locationofindustriescanbeassessed.AMekongMainstreamPlanwouldidentifysensitiveandcritical MekongRiverassets,establishaframeworkofzonesandsetstandardsandmanagementmeasures.Itwould establishecologicallyacceptablemeasuresforflowvariationandsedimentretentionanddischarge. AMekongmainstreamplancontrastswiththeBasinDevelopmentPlan,inthatitwouldprovideaframework againstwhichdevelopmentscanbeassessed.TheBasinDevelopmentPlanisbasedonaseriesofdevelopment scenariostoassesswhichlevelsofdevelopmentwillbeacceptable.TheMekongmainstreamPlanisaresource managementanddevelopmentproposalassessmentframework,whilsttheBDPisadevelopmentinstrument.
27.2.2 SEDIMENTDYNAMICSOFTHEMEKONG
UnderstandingofthedynamicsofsedimentandnutrienttransportdowntheMekonglagssignificantlybehind thehydrology.SedimentandnutrientdynamicshasemergedasakeystrategicconcernintheSEA,with implicationsforriverbedandbankerosion,floodplainfertilityandthemaintenanceofthedeltaandcoastal 148
plume.TheMRCsIKMPhasstartedaprogrammeofworktodevelopcapacityandunderstandingin sediment/nutrienttransferandthisshouldbecontinuedandextendedasamatterofurgency.
27.2.3 FISHERIESRESEARCH
AnothergapinthebasinplanningprocessisthelevelofinformationaboutfisheriesintheMekong.The MekongRiverBasinisacknowledgedashavingthelargestinlandfisheryintheworld,andyettheincomplete detailaboutthefishery,wherethespeciesareandthemigrationpatterns,andthefishproductionhasledtoa verywiderangeofestimatesbydifferentexperts,andconsiderableuncertaintyabouttheimpactsofthe proposedmainstreamdams.Afocusedprogrammeoffisheriesresearchisneededtoreducethisuncertainty andtocometoaclearerpictureofthefishspeciesandthefisheryproductionthatareatrisk.
27.2.4 SOCIAL&CULTURALKNOWLEDGEANALYSIS
AnotherseriousgapapparentduringtheSEAisthelackofsocialandculturalknowledgeandanalysisofthe communitiesthatlivealongandusetheresourcesoftheMekong.Astatisticthatalmost60%ofthepeople livinginthebasinlivewithin15kilometersoftheriverbankunderlinestheneedforsuchananalysis,without whichcomprehensivesocialdevelopmentandplanningformitigatingimpactscannotbeundertaken,nor strategicdecisionstaken.TheMRCandtheLMBcountriesshouldstrengthentheircapacityforsocialand culturalanalysisaspartofthebasinplanningprocess,includingthetransboundarysocialconsequencesof mainstreamdevelopment.
27.2.5 CLIMATECHANGETHREAT&VULNERABILITYASSESSMENTS
MRCshouldleadindefiningtrendsandrangesofclimatechangeforeachsubbasinandinassessingtheir implicationsforlivelihoodsandfordevelopmentsectorsincludinghydropower.MRCisintheearlystagesof implementingtheMekongClimateChangeAdaptationInitiativeincludingtheestablishingaMekongPanelon ClimateChangeandpreparationofaMekongClimateChangeActionPlan.Awiderangeofrelevanttechnical partnersandexpertiseshouldbeboughtintotheCCAIsothattheauthorityandcredibilityofMRCsclimate changeprojectionsandassessmentsisestablished.
27.2.6 SEA
MRCshoulddraftaprotocolwithassociatedproceduralguidanceforconductingSEAsonaregularbasisto supportandadviseLMBcountrieswhenfacedwithmajordevelopmentdecisionshavingtransboundaryand internationalimplications.ThisSEAofmainstreamhydropoweristhefirstuseofthetoolbytheMRCandone ofthefirstregionalSEAsconductedintheLMB.SEAscanbeusedforassessmentoflargescaleormultiple developmentproposalsthatplantousetheMekongRiveranditsresources,suchasirrigation,water diversions,floodprotection,industrialwithdrawsandwasteemissions,urbandevelopmentandhydropower. Throughtheconsultativeprocesses,asharperandfocusedstrategicanalysisandrecommendationscanbe achievedthanthroughthewiderbasindevelopmentplanningprocesses.TheSEAprocessisparticularlywell suitedtotransboundarystrategicimpactanalysis.
27.3 GUIDANCE&STANDARDS
TheMRCInitiativeonSustainableHydropowerhastakensignificantstepsindevelopingthePreliminary TechnicalGuidanceonmainstreamhydropowerdams,ausefuldocumentthatbeginsthesetthestandards requiredformainstreamandtributaryhydropowerprojects.Theguidancecoversnavigation,fishpassage, sedimentmanagementandrivermorphology,waterqualityandaquaticecologyanddamsafety.TheMRC shouldexpandtheguidancetocoveradditionalissuesraisedduringtheSEA,suchasenvironmentalflows, climatechangerisks,reservoirmanagement,benefitsharing,transboundarycompensationandgrievance procedures.
27.4 AMEKONGFUND
149
TheconceptofaMekongFundisunderconsiderationasamechanismforraisingandmanagingfundsfrom multiplesourcesincludingrevenuederivedfromtariffs,contributionsfromprivatedevelopers,contributions fromdevelopmentpartners(bilateralandmultilateralIFIs)andDialoguePartners,aswellaspotentialnew financingsourcessuchasinternationalcarbonfinancing.Theusesofthesefundscouldincludearangeof activitiessuchastransboundarymitigationandbenefitsharing,heritageprotection,MRCSecretariat operations,RDDandmonitoringandtheinstitutionalcapacitywithintheMRCorotherbodytocoordinatethe managementofwaterinfrastructure.MRCshoulddeveloptheconceptofaMekongfundfurtherandput proposalsforwardforagreementofthefourLMBcountries.
28 RECOMMENDATIONSFORTHESEAREPORT&FOLLOWUP CONSULTATION
ThroughouttheSEA,consultationmeetingsandtheprogressiveSEAreportsateachstageoftheassessment haveraisedunderstandingandawarenessonthestrategicissuesofconcernunderlyingdecisionsonthe mainstreamprojects.Yet,theSEAprocessitselfhasbeenconstrainedbytimeandresourceinitsreachto engagemanystakeholdersandseniordecisionmakers.Duringthefinalregionalconsultationmeetingheldin HoChiMinhCityinJune2010,expertsfromallfourcountriesmadestrongrecommendationsforcontinuing theconsultationprocessbasedonthefinalSEAreport.Insummary,thoserecommendationsfromnational workinggroupsinclude: ConsultationprocessonthefinalSEAshouldbeextendedtoincludeseniordecisionmakersineachcountry includingitsconsiderationby: TheMRCJointCommittee NationalMekongCommittees Lineagencies NationalcabinetsofMinisters Naturalresourcesandenvironmentparliamentarycommittees ItisrecommendedthattheMRC: PrepareaconsultationandcommunicationsplanfortheSEAreportandensureadequatefunding atregionalandnationallevelsthroughtheNMCsforitsimplementation HavetheSEAreporttranslatedintoeachofthefournationallanguagesforwidecirculation SpecifythetimeframeforreleaseanddistributionofthefinalSEAreport SubmittheSEAreporttoJointCommitteeforendorsementandguidance SubmitthereporttoNationalMekongCommitteesfordiscussionandactionatnationallevel CirculatetheSEAreporttothedonorsandotherregionalstakeholdersfordiscussionandaction Conveneamultistakeholderconferencetodiscussthereport Establishregionaltechnicaltaskforcesonthekeystrategicissueswhereuncertaintiesremain IntegratetheSEAreportintotheBasindevelopmentplanningprocess,supplementingtheBDP, andprovidingcontinuitywithMRCprograms ItisrecommendedthatNMCs: CirculatedatranslatedversionoftheSEAreportandsummarytonationallineagencies CommunicatekeyfindingsoftheSEAtohighleveldecisionmakersinnationallanguages Facilitateconsultationandengagementwithcommunitiesthatwouldbeaffected
150
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXI
ANNEXES
ANNEXI:SALIENTFEATURESOFTHEPROPOSEDLMBMAINSTREAMPROJECTS
MANAGEMENTSTATUS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTSTATUS EARLIESTPOTENTIAL 68 COMMISSIONDATE PlantDesign Discharge(m3/s) InstalledCapacity (MW)
DESIGNSPECIFICATIONS LiveStorage(mcm) MeanAnnualEnergy (GWh) FirmAnnualEnergy (GWh) LowSupplyLevel (Mamsl) PeakingCapability (MW) FullSupplyLevel (mamsl) RESERVOIRAREA (km2)
DIMENSIONS Lengthofdam(m)
MAINSTREAMDAM
DEVELOPER
DESIGNSTATUS
LOCATION
RatedHead(m)
PakBeng Luang Prabang Xayaburi PakLay Sanakham Pakchom
LaoPDR LaoPDR LaoPDR LaoPDR LaoPDR LaoPDR Thailand
DatangInternationalPower Generation(China) PetroVietNamPower Corporation(VietNam) SEAN&Ch.Karnchang PublicCoLtd(Thailand) CEIECandSinoHydro (China) DatangInternationalPower Generation(China) N/a
2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017
MoU, feasibility MoU, feasibility MoU, feasibility MoU, feasibility MoU, feasibility MasterPlan
IEEsubmitted Feasibilitystudy, Feasibility&fullESIA submitted IEEsubmitted Notyet Notyet
31 40 24 26 25 22
7,250 3,812 6,018 4,500 5,918 5,720
1,230 1,410 1,260 1,320 700 1,079
1,230 1,412 1,260 1,320 1,200 1,079
5,517 5,437 6,035 6,460 5,015 5,318
4,073 4,205 5,139 4,252 3,978 5,052
340 310 275 240 220 192
334 308 270 237 215 190
442 734 225 384 106 12
87 90 49 108 81 74
943 1,106 810 630 1,144 1,200
BanKoum
LaoPDR Thailand
ItalianThaiAsiaCorp. Holdings(Thailand) CharoenEnergyandWater AsiaCoLtd(Thailand) MegaFirst (Malaysia)
2017 2018 2016 2016 N/a 2020
MoU, feasibility MoU,pre feasibility PDA,detailed planning MoU,pre feasibility MoU,pre feasibility MoU,pre feasibility
Notyet
19 10.6 17 16 15 33
11,700 10,000 2,400 380 18,493 17,668
1,872 686 240 50 980 2,600
1,872 686 240 50 591 2,030
8,434 2,668 2,375 360 4,870 11,740
8,012 1,524 1,989 2,937 9,150
115 97.5 75 71.7 55 40
115 95.5 72 68.7 50 39
0 0 115 n/a 70 465
133 13 290 (ha) n/a 211 620
780 1,300 1820720 2730 Channel 1,800m 10,884 18,002
LatSua DonSahong
LaoPDR LaoPDR
Prefeasibilitystudy submitted FullEIAsubmitted,
10.6 8.28.3 n/a 22 56
Thakho diversion StungTreng Sambor
LaoPDR Cambodia Cambodia
CNR&EDL(France/Lao) SongDaConstructionCo. (VietNam) ChinaSouthernPowerGrid (China)
IEEsubmitted Notyet Prefeasibility submitted

68
CommissioningdatesasprovidedinMOUssignedbetween20062010.ThefirstprojecttobenotifiedunderthePNPCA(XayaburiinSeptember2010)hassubsequentlyrevisedthecommissiondate2019
151
Height(m)
76 68 32 35 38 55 53 27
SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXII
ANNEXII:LISTOFSTAKEHOLDERSCONSULTED
Meetingwithlineagencies NationalScopingWorkshops CivilSocietyOrganizationMeetings RegionalSEAWorkshops CambodianNational MekongCommittee MinistryofEnvironment MinistryofIndustry,Mines andEnergy, MinistryofAgriculture, Forestry&Fisheries
Cambodia
GeneralDepartmentofEnergy,HydroElectricity DepartmentMinistryofIndustryMinesandEnergy (MIME) DepartmentofHydrologyandRiverWorksMinistryof WaterResourceandMeteorology(MOWRAM) InlandFisheriesResearchandDevelopmentInstitute (IFReDI)&FisheryAdministration(FiA)Ministryof AgricultureForestryandFisheries(MAFF) DepartmentofEnvironmentalImpactAssessment(EIA) MinistryofEnvironment(MoE) MinistryofPlanning(MOP) PlanningandDevelopmentdepartment,Environmental& ecotourismofficeMinistryofTourism(MOT) DepartmentofPlanningandpublicrelationsMinistryof RuralDevelopment DepartmentofPlanning&StatisticsMinistryof AgricultureForestryandFisheries(MAFF) DepartmentofWaterwaysMinistryofPublicWorksand Transportation(MPWT) ForestryAdministrationMinistryofAgricultureForestry andFisheries(MAFF) DolphinConservation&TourismAuthorityCouncilof Ministers DepartmentofPreventativeMedicineMinistryofHealth (MoH) EnvironmentaldepartmentofStungTrengprovince DepartmentofwaterresourceandmeteorologyofStung Trengprovince DepartmentofwaterresourceandmeteorologyofStung TrengProvince FisheryDiviionofThalaboriwatdistrict DepartmentofagricultureofStungTrengProvince HealthdepartmentofStungTrengProvince ForestryadministrationofStungTrengProvince DepartmentofPlanningofStungTrengProvince DepartmentofPlanningofKratieProvince
GeneralDepartmentofEnergy, HydroElectricityDepartment MinistryofIndustryMinesand Energy(MIME CambodianNationalMekong Committee DepartmentofHydrologyandRiver WorksMinistryofWater ResourceandMeteorology (MOWRAM) InlandFisheriesResearchand DevelopmentInstitute(IFReDI) MinistryofAgricultureForestryand Fisheries(MAFF) FisheriesAdministrationMinistry ofAgricultureForestryandFisheries (MAFF) DepartmentofPlanning&Statistics MinistryofAgricultureForestry andFisheries(MAFF) DepartmentofEnvironmental ImpactAssessment(EIA)Ministry ofEnvironment(MoE) DepartmentofWaterways MinistryofPublicWorksand Transportation(MPWT) PlanningandDevelopment department,Environmental&eco tourismofficeMinistryofTourism (MOT) DepartmentofPreventative MedicineMinistryofHealth (MoH) DepartmentofPlanningandpublic relationsMinistryofRural Development(MRD)
WorldWildlifeFund(WWF) WCSCambodiaProgram NGOForumCambodia CultureandEnvironmental PreservationAssociation(CEPA) CDCAM Fauna&FloraInternational CambodianNationalMekong Committee
152
FisherydepartmentofKratieprovince HealthdepartmentofKratieprovince DepartmentofwaterresourceandmeteorologyofKratie Province DepartmentofEnvironmentofKratieProvince MinistryofTourism
DolphinConservation&Tourism Authority ForestryAdministrationMinistry ofAgricultureForestryandFisheries (MAFF) MinistryofTourism WREOVientianeProvince WREAOLuangPrabang DepartmentofWaterResources DepartmentofIrrigation DepartmentofLivestockandFishery DepartmentofForestry DepartmentofHygiene& Preventativemedicine DepartmentofWaterWays LaoNationalMekongCommittee
LaoPDR
DepartmentofElectricityMinistryofIndustryMinesand Energy(MIME) DepartmentofEnvironmentandSocialImpactAssessment WREA DepartmentofIrrigationMinistryofAgricultureForestry andFisheries(MAFF) DepartmentofWaterResources DepartmentofForestryMinistryofAgricultureForestry andFisheries(MAFF) DepartmentofLivestockandFisheryMinistryof AgricultureForestryandFisheries(MAFF) GovernorsOfficeofBokeoProvince WaterandEnvironmentalSectionofBokeoProvince PlanningandInvestmentDepartmentofBokeo RuralDevelopmentDepartmentofBokeo ForestrySectionofPOFAofBokeo DistrictGovernorofPaktha CultureandInformationofPakthaDistrict GovernorsOfficeofPakbeng WaterandEnvironmentalOfficeofPakbengDistrict PublicHealthOfficeofPakbeng GovernorsOfficeofOudomxayProvince PlanningandInvestmentofOudomxayProvince RuralDevelopmentDepartment GovernorsOfficeofLuangprabangprovince PlanningandInvestmentofLuanprabangProvince ForestrysectionofPAFOofLPProvince GovernorsOfficeofNanDistrict WaterandEnvironmentalOfficeofNanDistrict GovernorsOfficeofSayabouryprovince StatisticsofPlanningandInvestmentdepartmentof sayabouryProvince MiningandPowerdepartmentofSayabouryProvince ForestrySectionofPAFOofSayabouryProvince PlanningOfficeofSayabouryDistrict GovernorsOfficeofPaklayDistrict DepartmentofPlanningandInvestmentofVientiane
SEMIIProject InternationalUnionforConservation ofNature(IUCN) WorldWildlifeFund(WWF) WildlifeConservationSociety(WCS) GTZ InternationalWaterManagement Institute(IWMI)
LaoNationalMekong Committee WREAWaterResources& EnvironmentAgency MinistryofIndustryMines andEnergy(MIME)
153
Province GovernorsOfficeofMedDistrict GovernorsOfficeofChampasackProvince PlanningoftheDepartmentofPlanningandInvestmentof Champasackprovince InvestmentofthedepartmentofPlanningandInvestment ofChampasackprovince InternationalRelationofthetheDepartmentofPlanning andInvestmentofChampasackprovince ForestrySectionofChampasackProvince GovernorsOfficeofPakseDistrict GovernorsOfficeofKhongDistrict PlanningandInvestmentofKhongDistrict WaterandEnvironmentalOfficeofKhongDistrict MiningandpowerdivisionofKhongDistrict ThaiLand RoyalIrrigationDepartment ElectricityGenerationAuthorityofThailand Navigation&MaritimeDepartment DepartmentofRenewableEnergyDevelopment&Energy EfficiencyDepartment NationalEconomic&SocialDevelopmentBoard DepartmentofFisheries DepartmentofPublicHealth DepartmentofEIA ThaiNationalSenate BureauofInternationalCooperation (BIC)DepartmentofWater Resources MekongAffairsDivisionBureauof InternationalCooperation(BIC) CivilEngineeringExpertRoyal IrrigationDepartment(RIG) WaterResourcesandAgriculture OfficeofNaturalResourcesand EnvironmentalPolicyandPlanning (ONREPP) ElectricityGeneratingAuthorityof Thailand(EGAT) DepartmentofAlternativeEnergy DevelopmentandEfficiency (DAEDE) WaterPlanningSectionNESDB DepartmentofForestry(DoF) IrrigatedAgricultureand AcceleratedAreaGroup DepartmentofAgriculture(DoA) DepartmentofHealth MarineDepartment StatisticalForecastingBureau ThaiNationalMekongCommittee TNMC,WaterResourcesDepartment CareThailand MoonRiverBasinCommittee SubBasinNetworkCommittee MoonRiverBasinNGONetwork NaturalResourceandEnvironment Volunteer CommunityEcologyInstitute LowerMoonSubBasinNetwork SubsomboonVillage EsarnCooperativesLimited EsarnEnvironmentalAssembly ofEsarnAlternativeAgriculture Network NaturalResourceandEnvironment Faculty,MahasarakamUniversity WaterResourcesRegionalOffice MekongSustainableAgriculture ExtensionAssociation WaterUserNetwork SakolnakornUniversity CommunityRightAssociation RehabilitationofLocalCommunity WorkingGroup RatchapatUdonthaniUniversity CommunityNetworkDevelopment Association ChiRiverBasinFarmer ThaiNationalSenate EGAT DAEDE DepartmentofFisheries TNMC,WaterResources Department
154
VietNam
DepartmentofEnergy DepartmentofPrevention&Environment IMHENInstituteofMetrology,Hydrologyand Environment DevelopmentStrategyInstitute VietNamInlandWaterwayAdministrationMinistryof Transport DepartmentofForestry NationalDirectorateofAquaticResourcesExploitationand protection(NADAREP) SouthernSubInstituteofForestInventoryandPlanning (SouthernFIPI) SouthernInstituteforWaterResourcesPlanning SubNationalInstituteofAgriculturalPlanningand Projection(SubNIAPP) ResearchInstituteforAquacultureNo.2 Centreformonitoringofnaturalresourcesand environmentDONRECanTho ResearchInstituteforClimateChange(DragonInstitute) CanThoUniversityDepartmentofAgricultureandRural DevelopmentofSocTrangProvince DepartmentofStatisticsofSocTrangProvince DepartmentofPlanningandInvestmentofSocTrang Province DepartmentofLabour,InvalidsandSocialAffairsofSoc TrangProvince DepartmentofAgricultureandRuralDevelopmentofDong ThapProvince DepartmentofStatisticsofDongThapProvince DepartmentofPlanningandInvestmentofSocTrang Province DepartmentofLabour,InvalidsandSocialAffairsofDong ThapProvince
MeteorologyandHydrology InstituteMinistryofNatural ResourcesandEnvironment (MONRE) DepartmentofEnvironment MONRE AppraisalandEIA/SEADepartment NaturalResourcesandEnvironment MagazineMONRE CentreforWaterResources PlanningandInvestigation NationalCentreforHydrologyand Metrology InstituteforStrategicDevelopment MinistryofPlanningand Investment(MPI) DepartmentofScience,Education, NaturalResourcesandEnvironment MPI DepartmentofAgriculture& Economy InstituteofPolicyandStrategyfor RuralandAgriculturalDevelopment MinistryofAgricultureandRural Development(MARD) NationalInstituteforAgricultural PlanningandProjectionsMARD NationalDirectorateofAquatic ResourceExploitationand protectionMARD DepartmentofForestryMARD InstituteofWaterResource PlanningMARD InstituteforForestPlanningand InvestigationMARD VietNamInstituteforWater ResourcesResearchMARD VietNamInlandWaterways AdministrationMinistryof Transport DepartmentofScience&
RoiEtRiverSubbasin SongkramRiverSubbasin WWFThailand KhonKaenUniversity PeopleandNatureReconciliation CenterforWaterResources ConservationandDevelopment (WARECOD) Consultancyondevelopment(CODE) CenterforBiodiversity& Development ResearchInstituteforClimateChange CanThouniversity ActionAidInternational BirdLifeInternational Fauna&FloraInternational(FFI) OxfamHongKong WorldWildFundforNature WorldVisionInternational NGOResourcesCentre EastMeetsWestFoundation VietNamNationalMekong Committee
VNMC PetroVietnam EVN
155
TechnologyMinistryofIndustry andTrade DepartmentofScience,Technology &EnvironmentElectricityofViet Nam(EVN) ConsultingCompany1EVN DepartmentofSocialWelfare MinistryofLabour,Invalidand SocialAffairs DepartmentofHealth& EnvironmentMinistryofHealth (MOH) DepartmentofInternational OrganisationsMinistryofForeign Affairs CentreforPromotionofIntegrated WaterResourceManagement CentreforPromotionofIntegrated WaterResourceManagement VietNamAssociationofLargeDams andWaterResourcesDevelopment SouthernInstituteforWater ResourcePlanningMARD ResearchInstituteforAquaculture No2.(RIA2) VietNamNationalMekong Committee China ESCIREcosystem Commissionfor InternationalRivers WorldBank ADBEOCEnvironmentOperationsCentre AusAID ASEAN Finida Danida JICA KfW UNDP UNESCAP UNWomen
Private Sector developers
TeamConsultingEngineeringManagement(Xayaburiproject) PetroVietnamPowerCorporation(LuangPrabangproject) EVNPowerEngineeringConsultingJSC VietNamEnvironment&Sustainabledevelopmentinstitute(LuangPrabang Project) CharoenEnergyandWaterAsiaCoLtd(Thailand)(LatSuaproject) MegaFirst(DonSahongproject) ChinaSouthernGrid(Samborproject) CNR(Thakhoproject)
InternationalDevelopmentOrganisations
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXIII
ANNEXIII:MAINSTREAMPOWERALTERNATIVESPARTIALINCHANNEL,DIVERSION ANDOTHERINNOVATIVESYSTEMSFORELECTRICITYGENERATION
TheproposedschemesforMekongmainstreamdamsthreatenitsconnectivity.Therearealternativesthatshouldbe consideredwhichmaybelessdamaging.Theseinclude: Partialinchanneldams.Oftheproposeddams,theoneexampleofthisisDonSahong,inwhichpartoftheflowof theriverischanneledbetweenanislandandonebankallowingelectricitytobegenerated,whilemaintainingthe otherchannel/sforecologicalconnectivity,navigationetc.Thereareanumberoflocationsintheriverwherepartial dammingaroundislandscouldbedeveloped.OnesuchisanalternativetotheSambordam.Theconcernwiththe DonSahongdamisthat,despitebeingapartialdam,itthreatenstheyearroundconnectivityofthemainstreamfor fishpassageandwoulddrawsignificantflowsawayfromKhoneFalls. Outofchanneldiversionhydropowerschemes.Oftheproposedschemes,ThakhoHPPistheonlyonewhichoffersa nondammingoption.Thisschemedivertswaterroundalargedropinhead(KhonePhaphengFalls)andgenerates electricitywithoutthreateningtheconnectivityofthemainstream.Theremaybeotherlocationswheresuch diversionschemeswouldbepossible,althoughthedropinheadatKhoneFallsprovidesthebestopportunity.Such locationshavenotbeenfullyassessed. Bendcutoffdiversions.Thesetypicallyusethewindingnatureofarivertodevelopareasonabledifferenceinhead overashortstraightlinedistance.Typicallyafractionoftheriverflowaroundamajorbend,orseriesofbends,is sentbyadiversiontunnel,anddeliveredbacktotheriverseveralkilometersdownstream.Apowerhouseisinstalled attheoutletendofthetunnel,andpowerisdevelopedinproportiontothedifferenceinhead,andtheflowrate divertedthroughthetunnel.Peakpowerfromtheturbinesof50to100megawattsmaybedevelopedinthisway, usingonlyafractionoftheflowintheMekongRiver.Advantagesofthissystemincludeabsenceofadam/reservoir system,thefactthatonlyafractionoftheflowintheriverisutilised,withtheremainingflowleftintheriver channel,andthefactthatthemajorityofthesedimentispasseddownstreamintheriverchannel.Disadvantages includethecostoftunneling(whichmaybeoffsetbythesavingsfromnotrequiringadam).Thisstrategywasutilised atAvuongdaminQuangnamDaNangprovince,VietNam,whereflowwasdivertedfromtheSongAvuongtothe SongBungviaa7kmlongtunnel,(inthiscaseadamwasalsoconstructedontheAvuongRivertoraisetheriverlevel andmaximisetheheaddeveloped). Sitesthataresuitableforbendcutoffdiversionsneedtobeinvestigatedfurther,andthecosteffectiveness examinedaspartofaprefeasibilitystudy.PossibilitiesontheMekongmainstreamdownstreamofChinainclude: 1. 2. 3. XiengKokcutoff,northtosouthalignment,5kmlongtunnel(withinMyanmar),about10mhead difference ChiangSaencutoff,westtoeastalignment,14kmlongtunnel(withinLaoPDR),about10mheaddifference LuangPrabangcutoff,northwesttosoutheastalignment,21kmlongtunnel(withinLaoPDR),about20m headdifference.
Otherinnovativesystemsforelectricitygeneration.Anumberofconceptsarebeingdevelopedinotherpartsofthe worldforgeneratingelectricity,e.g.drawinguponexperienceswithhydrokineticsystems.Thesehavenotyetbeen proven,butcouldhavetheadvantageofallowingthedevelopmentofhydropowerwithoutthreateningthe connectivityoftheMekongmainstream.TheUSAFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionlistsanumberof preliminarypermitsforinlandhydrokineticsystemsonriverssuchastheColumbia,TennesseeandStClairriversup to20MW.69Allthesehydrokineticunitshavesmalleroutputperunit;howeverthereisthepotentialfortheir installationinlargenumbersamountingtoasignificantlevelofgenerationforagivenriverreach.Systemsinclude: (i) TheAnacondasystem70designedtocapturecoastalwaveenergy.Itusesadistensiblerubbertubeanchoredto theriverbedandfloatingjustbeneaththesurface,inwhichbulgewavesaresqueezedbypassingwaves.Itis notpossibletoconceivethatthiswouldproduceanysignificantamountofenergyfromtheMekongRiver,or frommainstreamreservoirsontheMekong,onaccountofthelowwaveenergy(ordersofmagnitudelowerthan seawaves. (ii) TheSchaubergervortex,71whichisbaseduponthevelocityoftheflowofwaterandasystemmightbe envisagedinwhichthealreadyswiftlyflowingwaterischannelledintoaroundpipeorjetfunneltoconcentrate itsvelocityanddesignedtoinduceavortexinthefunnel.
70http://www.checkmateuk.com/seaenergy/index.html
69http://www.ferc.gov/industries/hydropower/indusact/hydrokinetics.asp
71http://www.frank.germano.com/theschaubergerpage.htm
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXIII
(iii) Inflowturbines:anumberofkinetichydropowergenerationsystemsexistwhichoperate`bysubmergingaxial andcrossflowturbinesinthewatercolumn.Thesehaveprimarilybeendevelopedformarineenvironmentsbut canbeappliedtoriverswithstrongcurrents.Efficiencycanbeenhancedwiththeadditionofventurishrouds whichincreasethecrosssectionalareachannelledintoriverbedmountedturbines.TheBelgiancompany, RuttenElectromecaniqueisactivelycompletingsomeprojectsinRDC(Congo)withfloatingpowergenerators. TheyhavealreadymadecontactwithMRCS.ThesemaybesuitableontheMekongmainstream,butwould providelowerpoweroutputs,becausethesizeofrotorislimited,andthevelocityintheriverismodest.There wouldbesignificantproblemswithanchoringanddamageintheMekong,onaccountofthehighfloatingdebris load.Likelypeakpoweroutputwouldbetwotothreeordersofmagnitudesmallerthanthepresentprojects.
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXIV
ANNEXIV:RECOMMENDEDSTUDIES
ENERGYANDPOWER StrategicOptions1and2 Assessmentofwhatnomainstreamdamsordefermentmeanstopowersectorsineachcountryandimplications forinvestor/FDIinvestmentinLMBpowerdevelopment StudytoconfirmtheimpactofoperationofupstreamLancangMekongdamsonLMBpowergenerationand operationofdamsandlevelofotherpotentialrisksandbenefitse.g.understandingopportunitiesforrevenue generationandsynergieswithimpactmitigation/enhancementinothersectorsindryseasonflows. ReviewofalternativeschemesforharnessingMekongmainstreamhydropowerandfeasibilitystudiesfortheir application. StrategicOption3and4 Developahydrologicalmodelforoperationofmainstreamdamsinhourlydetailandwithdifferentconfigurationsof plantsinplace Allprojectdevelopersandregulatorsshouldapplythemodelunderguidelinesofflowmodificationtodeterminethe performanceoftheirproposedprojectsunderdifferentflowandstatesofdevelopment ECONOMICS StrategicOptions1and2 Studyofthemacroeconomicimplicationsofforegoingmainstreamhydropowerdevelopment,includinglost opportunitycostsatthenationalandregionallevel StudiesintothefeasibilityofestablishingaMekongFund StrategicOptions3and4 Economicstudiesonmainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentmust: o Incorporaterealisticaccountingforalldirectandindirectcostsandbenefits o Dependupondetailedstudiesundertakeninothersectors(fisheriesandhydrologyinparticular) o Addressuncertaintythroughcomprehensivesensitivityanalysis HYDROLOGYANDSEDIMENT HydrologyisoneofthebeststudiedfeaturesoftheMekong.Sedimentandnutrientsareamongtheleastunderstood components.Recommendationsforfurtherstudiescover: Fieldworkandmonitoring Datamanagement Informationsharing(withinLMBnationalmonitoringprograms&withChina) MRCiswellpositionedtocoordinatemanyoftheseactivitiesandalreadyissettingupasedimentprogramunderIKMP. Ongoinghydrologicalmonitoring: StrategicOptions1and2:Continuetodevelopandmaintainhydrologicalandsedimentmonitoringandanalysis StrategicOptions3and4ProvidefundingandtechnicalinputtoMRCStorecalibrate,relocateandrebuildgauging stationsthatwouldbeseriouslyimpactedbytheproposedprojects,eitherbyinundation,orbyverysignificantdeposition orerosionofbedmaterial/bedlevel. Technicalstudiesinclude: StrategicOptions2,3and4 Comprehensivestudiesonsedimentdynamics,including o Profilingofthesedimentgrainsizedistribution:(i)acomprehensiveandongoingmonitoringprogramof suspendedsediments,and(ii)forbedload,assessmentshouldprioritisebedcomposition,sizedistributionof sedimentandbedloadtransport,inthemainstreamparticularlyintheZone3reach,andinmajortributaries. (iii)Inaddition,improveddefinitionoftimescaleforprojectscausingseriousbederosionproblemsnear Vientiane.
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Consolidationofsedimentdata:Resolutionofwhythereisanapparentdropoutofthesuspendedsediment loadatNongKai.(LaoPDRandThailand) o Roleofcohesivesediments:(i)characterisethepresenceofcohesivesedimentsinallzonesoftheMekong,(ii) assesstheirecomorphologicalimportanceforprocessesofsiltation,fertilisation,nutrienttransportandaquatic productivityFloodplaindeposition:Thecumulativeimpactsofmainstreamprojectsonfloodplaindeposition basedon3Dhydrodynamicmodelingofthefloodplainwithreducedsedimentloads. o Fateandtransportofnutrients:extendexistingIKMPbasinscalesedimentmodelingundertakentoquantifythe impactsonprimaryproductionandexplorethelongitudinalconnectivityoftheproductioncyclefromthe headwaterstotherivermouth.Withfocuson:(i)floodplains,(ii)offshoredelta,(iii)nutrientloadingfrommajor citysewageoutfalls Morphologicalchanges:bedandbankerosion,lateralmigrationofthechannelandchangestoconnectivitybetween thefloodplainsandthemainstem.Inthebedrockandconfinedreaches,thefocuswouldbeonsandbarsanddeep pools,aswellasthefateandtransportofbedloadandnoncohesivesediments. Marinesedimentplume:(i)mapthechangestotheextentandmovementofthemarineplume,and(ii)detailed hydrodynamicmodellingofoceanprocesseswithafocusonbiogeochemistryoffreshsaltwaterinteractionsand sedimenttransport.(VietNam) Coastalerosion:quantifythesitesandrateoferosioninthecontextofthereducedsedimentloadpredictedbythe arrayofdamsproposedforLancang/MekongandtheCentralHighlands.(VietNam) Groundwaterrecharge/connectivity:addressthechangestogroundwaterconnectivityintheCambodianfloodplains andtheMekongDeltawithafocuson:(i)changestotheseasonalwatertable,(ii)impactsonarseniclevels,(ii) potentialsalinisationofgroundwaterthroughtheelevationofthewatertable(CambodiaandVietNam) TonleSapsystem:explorethechangestotheseasonalfloodedareaoftheTonleSap(andimplicationsforflooded forest),thechangeinthehydraulicgradientdrivingreversalintheTonleSapaswellasrevisethesedimentbalance forthesystemunderathe20Yscenariowithreducedinputs.(Cambodia) Hydrodynamicsoffishmigration:Analysisofcapabilityofmigratoryfishspeciestomoveupstreamagainstan opposingrivercurrent,includingtheburstspeedthatfisharecapableofsustaining.Designandhydraulictestingofa scalemodelfishladdersuitableforMekongmigratoryfish,installationofafullscalefishladderatatestsite(e.g.ata damsomewhereonthelowerMekongtributarysystem),andobservationstoseetheeffectivenessoftheladder,and itslimitations. o StrategicOption3and4 Studiestoimprovemainstreamdamoperations: Reservoirsedimentationdynamics&flushingeffectiveness:Depositionanderosionofsedimentinexample reservoirs Downstreamimplicationsofpeaking&continuousoperation&rampingrates:operationalstrategies,ramping rates&sizeofdownstreamwavepropagation Seasonalreservoirsimulation:timingofwaterreleaseaheadofthefloodarrival&effectsontimingofthe downstreamhydrograph. Sensitivityanalysisofannualenergygenerationtooperatingwaterlevels:tounderstandthesensitivityofannual energygenerationtotals(GWhperyear)ateachsite,toloweringtheoperatinglevelsofthereservoirs Thermalplume:explorethedownstreamchangestowatertemperaturewhichcouldbeinducedbytheYunnan cascade MekongRiverCumulativeTrappingEfficiencyrulecurvesformainstreamprojects:sensitivityanalysistoassessthe implicationsofdifferentgroupingsofthe11LMBmainstreamprojects:(i)NorthernLaocascade(ChiangSaen Vientiane),(ii)LaoThaiprojects(VientianeKhoneFalls),(iii)Cambodianfloodplainprojects(Cambodianfloodplain projects) Emergencymanagement:Timeandmotionstudytosimulatetheoperationofturbinesandspillwaygatesfollowinga breakdownoftheelectricalsystem,e.g.thetransmissionlineorthetransformers.Analysisofthespeedofload shedding,andtheabilityofthespillwaygatestoopensufficientlyquicklytokeepreservoirlevelsatorbelowthe designfullpoollevel.Analysisoftheresultingscenarios,andthepropagationofachangeofflowwavedownstream, resultingfromthebreakdown UMBdailywaterlevelharmonics:historicobservedwaterlevelsbeforeandafterManwandamtostatistically explorethefluctuationsinwaterlevelsatdailyandhourlytimesteps. TERRESTRIALECOSYSTEMSANDAGRICULTURE ForStrategicOption2,3and4 Studytoupdateunderstandingofbiodiversitystatusanddistribution,includingendangeredspecieshabitat requirementsandagriculturalbiodiversityandtraditionalraces
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Researchonvaluesofnutrientsattachedtosedimentsandincreasedofagricultureproductioncostduetolossof naturalnutrients.(seeabovefateandtransportofnutrients) AQUATICECOSYSTEMS StrategicOptions1and2,3and4 Review,surveyandclassifyaquatichabitatsinwholeLowerMekong(biodiversityandecologicalimportance) o IdentifykeybiodiversityhotspotsonMekongmainstream o PrioritisekeytributariesforecosystemintegrityandhealthoftheMekong,highlightingthoseaffectedby proposedmainstreamdams o Leadingtoidentificationofasystemforprotectionofkeystretchesoftheriveranditstributaries Assessmentoftheecologicalimportanceandproductivityoftheseasonallyexposedinchannelwetlands StrategicOption3and4 Researchintoenhancementofmultipleuseinreservoirs,includingirrigation,navigation,fisheriesandpotential downstreamconsequencesofwaterdiversion. Culturalecosystemservices:SystematicreviewofallculturalassetsassociatedwithMekongandwithspecificsites ofproposeddams Riverbasedtourism:Carryoutmarketassessmentsandfeasibilitystudiesforenhancingthediversityofriverbased tourismattractionsandrecreationalfacilitiesofdamsandreservoirswhenconstructed FISHERIES StrategicOptions2,3and4 Researchanddevelopmentofsystemsforfishpassage,suitableforMekongconditions,toimproveeffectiveness. SystematicassessmentofMekongfishspeciesthatcansurviveinhydropowerreservoirs,andthosethatwillnot. Assessmentofhabitatimprovementsinreservoirstoencouragefishdiversityproduction SOCIALSYSTEMS StrategicOptions2,3and4 Studiesintodistributionofimpactsonsubsistenceandlivelihooddependenceonfisheriesatdifferentsectionsof theMekongmainstream AssessmentoflossofTonleSapfloatinghomesduetoincreasedandrapidwaterflowchanges AssessmentofcumulativedownstreamimpactsinVietNamduetoalteredriverflowsandsedimentsreduction leadingtoincrementalreducedagriculturalproductivity,riseinagriculturalcosts,reducedfreshandsaltwater fisheriesproduction NAVIGATION StrategicOptions2,3and4 Studyonsmallusers:Studiestodeterminethenumbersofsmalluserswithin15kilometresoftheproposed mainstreamhydropowerprojectsandhowtheconstructionandoperationofthedamwillimpactontheiractivities. CLIMATECHANGE StrategicOptions2,3and4 Riskstofoodsecurity:Comprehensivecollaborativestudy(MRC,CSIROandotherinternationalpartners)ofclimate changerisksonagriculturalandfisheriesbysubbasinandoverallfoodsecurity Increasedtributarypowerpotential:Potentialforincreasedpowerproductionfromtributariesthroughretrofitting forgreaterefficiencyandcapacityinexistingandnewprojects Designforextremeevents:Assessmentofdesignimplicationsformainstreamprojectsofriskofincreasedrangein flowandincidentsofextremeevents PotentialforemissionsreductionthroughhydropowerinLaoPDRandCambodia
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXV
ANNEXV:POLICYANDGUIDANCERECOMMENDATIONS
Thefollowingrecommendationscoverthepolicies,guidanceandeconomicsupportrequiredunderthedifferentstrategic options.Theyarearrangedbytheme,althoughinevitablythereissomeoverlap.Theyincludefillingtheenergyand economicdevelopmentgapsifthemainstreamdamsarecancelledordeferred,andthesocialpoliciesandpractices whichneedtoberationalisedbetweentheLMBcountriesifOptions3or4arechosen. ENERGYANDPOWER StrategicOptions1and2 Alternativestobulksupply:ClarifyandrationaliseLMBnationalpoliciesandstrategiesrelatingtoalternatives forbulksupplyfrompotentialmainstreamdams Alternativesourcesofenergymustbefactoredintothenationalpowerdevelopmentplanningtosupplyof 65,000GWhperyearforegonefromproposedmainstreamdams(65,000GWh=10xNamTheun2s) Usemoreconventionalalternativestomeetincrementaldemand(e.g.fromcoalimportsforThailand,VietNam andpossiblyCambodia;CambodiamayalsochooseLaohydroimports). AccelerateconsiderationofRenewableEnergysupply+DemandSideManagementinallcountries(seebox) Option3and4 Developpoliciesforaddressingissuesofinternationalenergyexchangesparticularlyintheeventofelectricity beingexportedfromacountrywhichisexperiencingelectricityshortage Establishrulesandregulationsunderwhichmainstreamprojectsaredevelopedandoperated,covering especiallyschedulingandoperation.Thisshouldincludeapplicationofthemodelofoperation(seeunder studies) Enhanceaspectsoftransboundarycooperationrelatedimpactsofpowergenerationonothersectors(e.g.as under1995AgreementandprojectspecificPNPCAtransboundaryagreements)includingLMBcooperationwith Chinae.g.scopetooptimiseoperationconsideringnonpowerimpacts&powerproduction. ECONOMICS Option1and2 Developalternativestoreplaceforgoneexportrevenue(ineconomictermsUSDUS1.2billonforCambodiaand USD4.6billionforLaoPDRannuallyby2030lessdebtrepayment+othercostduringconcessionperiod). Developeconomicsupportpackagesforotherenergysources Cambodiainvestigationofpossiblefossilfuelreserves,supportforthermalplants LaoPDRpotentialforacceleratedtributarydevelopment Donorsupportpackagestopromotetheinvestigationofalternativeenergyoptions Inbothcases,supportforthegridanddecentralisedRenewableEnergyproductiontoaddressruralenergy poverty. Integrationoftheseoptionsintoexistingandplannedregionalprograms Developeconomywidestructuraladjustmentpackagesinordertomitigatetheopportunitycostofforegoing ordelayingmainstreamprojectsinCambodiaandLaoPDR ReorientateSEDPsawayfromadependenceonmainstreamhydropower DonorsupportfordevelopmentofkeysectorsinCambodiaandLaoPDR Sectoralsupport(foragriculture,miningandmanufacturingindustry) Socialdevelopment(healthandeducation) DeveloptheMekongFund,baseduponfeasibilitystudy StrategicOptions3and4 Toenhancetheinvestmentstimulusfromthemainstreamhydropowerplants,eachcountryshouldaimto: Maximiselocalinputrequirements(labourandotherinputs)inprojects Providesupportfordevelopingancillaryindustriessuchashydroengineering(subsidies,trainingprogramsetc) Supportfortradablegoodssector Supportforimprovingproductivityofagricultureandmanufacturing Supportforimprovingproductivitytoaddressservicesectorbottlenecks Providetrainingandskillsprograms,infrastructure,subsidies Broadinterventionsaimedatimprovingnationalproductivity(health,education,importofcapitalgoods) Broadersocialdevelopmentprogrammes(education,health,ruralinfrastructure)integratedwithnational targetprograms 162
Possibleareafocusedsupportforbadlyaffectedlocations(e.g.TonleSap) Likelytorequirelargescaletransboundaryreallocationofresources Equitablefinancingofmitigationmeasuresandenhancement Hydropowerdevelopmentislikelytoimplythegenerationofsignificanteconomicrents,includingeconomic benefits(forpowerconsumers),profits(fordevelopers)andrevenues(forhostgovernments).Thesebenefit streamswilllastthelifetimeoftheprojects.Inprinciple,allmitigationandenhancementmeasuresshouldbe financedthroughthesebenefitstreams.Benefitssharingmaybeusedtoredistributesomeofthebenefitof hydropowerformitigationandenhancementmeasures(seeboxonbenefitsharing). BenefitsharingDistributionofcostsandbenefits:Benefitsharingmechanismsshouldbedevelopedforall LMBhydropowerschemes,includingproposedmainstreamdamsandtributaries.Theriskofcostsand opportunitiesforbenefitsrelatingtomainstreamhydropowerdevelopmentsintheLMBarelikelytobeunevenly distributed Opportunities o Powerconsumers(urbandwellers,industry) o Hostcountrygovernments(CambodiaandLaoPDR) o Privatesectordevelopersandfinanciers Risks o Poorandvulnerablecommunities(riparianareasandbasinwide) o Localadministrativeareas(provinces,districtsetc),particularlyneardamsites o Countryeconomiesthataremoredependentuponnaturalsystems(Cambodia,VietNam) Economicsupportforagriculture StrategicOptions1and2 IntensifiedsupportforagriculturalsystemsalongtheMekong,takingadvantageofincreaseddryseasonwater availabilitybecauseofChineseandtributarydams StrategicOptions3and4 Increasesinirrigableareas(enhancement) o Newirrigationpumps/machineryandO&Msupport o Extensionservicestosupportsustainableandefficientuseofimprovedirrigationinfrastructure coordinationwithhydropoweruses Localisedlossofland(mitigation) o Suitablereplacementland(includingprovisionforlossofriverbankgardens) o Provisionofextensionservices o Livelihooddiversificationsupport(training,provisionofcapitalforsmallbusiness,smallscalelocal infrastructureandamenityprovisionetc) o Transitionalincomesupportpackages Structuraladjustmentpackageforagriculture o Largescalelossofsedimentandassociatednutrientsislikelytorequiremitigationinthemediumterm o Ongoingmonitoringofnutrientlevels(soilandwatertesting)andproductionlevelsinaffectedareas o Ifandwhenrequiredsupportforpurchaseofreplacementfertilisers72 o Extensionsupportinuseoffertilisers o Structuraladjustmentpackages(forallsectors)needtobefullyintegratedwithsectoraldevelopment planningandbroaderSEDPs Fisherieseconomicsectormitigationandenhancement StrategicOptions1and2 IntensifiedsupportforenhancingandmoreeffectivemanagementoffisheriesresourcesinMekongmainstream StrategicOptions3and4 Supportforalternativefisheriesproductionwherepossible Reservoirandaquacultureproductionextensionservices,stockandequipment,retraining,concessional funding Supportforalternativelivelihoods Livelihooddiversificationprogram,includingskillstraining,extensionservices,microfinanceandconcession lending,supportforruralSMEs Emphasisonanimalhusbandry Supportforancillaryandprocessingindustries Paymentsforretiringcapitalequipment 72 Giventheemergingworldwideshortageofrockphosphatesthecostofanysuchprovisionislikelyincreasesignificantlyinthefuture 163
SoftloansandmicrocreditforSMEandhouseholdproductiondiversification Retrainingprogramsforhouseholds/employees SOCIALSYSTEMS StrategicOptions3and4 Independentexternalmonitoringneededtoensurethatsafeguardsstandardsarecompliedwith Transboundaryandtransprovincialrevenuesharingagreementsspecificallyforpovertyalleviation Defineandaddressgapsinpolicyandlegislationconcerningtransboundaryimpactsandequityinsafeguard applicationsbydevelopers LMBcountriestoagreecommonstandardsformonitoringandevaluationprocedures LMBcountriestoagreecomprehensiveandtransparenttransboundarygrievanceprocedures CLIMATECHANGE Alloptions Followingacollaborativestudy,MRCshouldissueaclearlycommunicatedsetofclimatechangetrendsandrangesof risklinkedto(a)thedevelopmentsectorsofstrategicimportancesuchasfisheries,agricultureandhydropowerand (b)bysubbasin ThestudyfindingsandframeworkofclimatechangeriskrangesandsafeguardsfortheLMBshouldbesubmittedto theMRCJointCommitteeforreviewandadoptionasaregionalguidancefordevelopmentwithinthebasin. The MRC climate change risk ranges and safeguards by subbasin should be included within the framework of the PNPCA Allhydropowerdevelopmentintheregionincludingthecurrent12LMBmainstreamprojectsshouldberequired totaketheMRCprojectedriskrangesintoaccountinthefeasibilityanalysis,designandoperationoftheirprojects. TheMekongPanelonClimateChangeshouldbeestablishedquicklywithprioritiesbeingguidanceonclimatechange implicationsforhydropower,agricultureandfisheriesintheLMB.
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXVI
ANNEXVI:INSTITUTIONALANDCAPACITYBUILDINGRECOMMENDATIONS
Thefollowingrecommendationscoverthenecessarynewinstitutionsthatwillberequiredtomanagehydropower developmentontheMekongmainstreamandthecapacitybuildingforexistinginstitutionsatnationalandlocallevels. ThesewilldefinitelyberequiredforOptions3and4,andpreparationsshouldbemadeforadecisiontogoaheadwith mainstreamdamsattheendofthedefermentperiodofOption2. ENERGY&POWER Institutionalrequirements o ReinforceInstitutionalArrangementsandCapacitiesforcooperationinthemanagementofthetransboundaryrisks associatedwiththeLMBmainstreamprojects Ensuringclarityinassignmentofresponsibilities/accountability Ensuringparticipationinimpactmonitoring,assessmentandcollectiveresponsestounforeseenimpacts+to seizedevelopmentopportunities o EnhanceregionalpowerplanningwithlinkagetoBDPprocesscoveringinstitutionalmechanisms,coordinationof operation o DevelopBenefitsharingmechanisms(regional>nationalandinnationalsystems(national>local) o Introducecooperativemonitoringofhydropowerplantscoveringcompliance+adaptivemanagementandsharingof information o Improvelicensingmechanismscoveringtemporary,constructionandoperatinglicenses o Providerulesandregulationsforoperationaloversightandemergencymanagement o AllowflexibilityinconcessionagreementsandPPAstoallowforadaptivemanagement o Establishframeworkformanagingjointpublicprivatemainstreamprojectonbordersbetweentwocountries o FormaMekongRiverAuthoritythatsetsguidingcriteriaforoperationofmainstreamdams withspecialisedinstitutionalstructurestomakefastdecisionsthatcanhaveinternationalconsequences, e.g.foroperatingmultipleprojectsunderunusualflowconditions withjointoperationbodytosetspecificrulesforhourlyflowmodificationandperformoptimisedoperation planningtoderivemaximumflowfromthecascade DeveloptheinstitutionalarrangementsforthemanagementoftheproposedMekongFund Capacitybuilding o Buildthecapacityofthelocalpoweroperatingcompanies o Atthenationallevel,reinforcethecapacityandscopeofnationalregulatory/safeguardsystems(environment, social,safetyofdams) HYDROLOGY&SEDIMENTS Institutionalrequirements o EstablishaMekongRiverAuthoritytotakeresponsibilityforthesatisfactorydesignandoperationofthe hydropowerfacilities,andofnavigationandfisheriesissues o PotentialforincreasingthemandateoftheMRC o ExperiencecanbedrawnfromorganizationssuchasCentralAfricanPowerCorporation(operatingthe Karibaproject,Zambia/Zimbabwe)andfromthebackgroundandcontentsoftheColumbiaRiverTreaty. TheAuthoritymust: o beindependent(politically&financially), o Haveamandateforenforcement o Strongengineeringcapacity o Aformulaforassigningamilratetotheelectricalenergyproductionattheproposedprojectswouldprovide partoftheannualfunding,andthiswouldbepaidannuallytotheRiverAuthorityforsupportingitswork Responsibilitieswouldinclude: o Designguidance:ensuringuniformityofdesign,withparticularreferencetodamsafetyandsafeoperating procedures.Assuringuniformityofguidelinesforconstruction,constructionmanagement,and work/environmentalsafetyduringconstruction. o Coordinationofdamoperations:ensuringgoodcommunicationsbetweencompletedprojects,to coordinateelectricitysupplytonationalgrids,andinthewaythatwaterisreleasedfromoneprojecttothe nextonedownstream 165
o o
o o
Emergencymanagementprotocols:organizingwaterreleasesthatarecoordinatedbetweenprojectsin emergencysituations,e.g.resultingfrommajorfloodsorfromequipmentfailure/breakdowns Navigation:ensuringthatnavigationiscoordinated,tofacilitatethebestpossibletransittimesthrougheach ofthedams,withthearrivalofboatsfromupstreamordownstream,andthecoordinationofdredgingof thenavigationchanneltoensureminimaldisturbancetoboattraffic. Stakeholdernotificationandconsultation:provideeffectivecommunicationofdamoperationactivitiesand eventstodirectlyaffectedcommunitiesandongoingconsultationwiththesecommunitiesinrelationto livelihoodimplicationsofdamoperations Coordinatedreservoirflushing&maintenanceschedule:Coordinatereservoirflushingactivitiessothat downstreamresidentsareminimallydisturbed,andtofitinwithnavigationchanneldredgingactivities. Damsafetyreviews&enforcement:Ensuringthatcomprehensivedamsafetyreviewsarecarriedoutina sufficientlythoroughway,andatsufficientrepeatperiodstoensurethattheverybestadviceisprovidedto thedamownersinatimelyway.Ensurethattheadvicegiventothedamownersisactedupon. Independentturbineefficiencytesting:Providingastandardisedserviceforturbineefficiencytesting,to assessperiodicallywhetherthepowerdeliveredforgivenwaterflowsmeasuresuptothemanufacturers specifiedefficiency.Thiswillbeimportant,astheturbineswillbeoperatinginahighlyabrasiveenvironment (largeingestionofsandload),andrapiddeteriorationofefficiencyshouldbeanticipated. Standardisedwaterlicensing&enforcement:Developingastandardisedstructureforwater licenses/agreements,specifyingthelimitsofstorage(fullpoollevel,floodlevel,volumestored),the maximumdiversionflowamountsthroughtheturbines,therequiredfisheries/environmentalflowdiversion (inm3/s),andnavigationrequirements,ifapplicable. Independentcontrol&enforcementofenvironmentalflows:Providinganindependentassessmentofthe magnitudeoftheenvironmentalandfisheriesflowreleases,checkedfromtimetotimetoensurethatthe flowsarenosmallerthanthevaluesagreedtowhenthegovernment(s)issuedthestorageanddiversion flowlicense. Turbinecontrolguidelines:Providingguidelinesforrampingratesfortheturbinesandthespillwaygatesat eachoftheprojects,computedtoprovidesufficiencyslowratesofchangeofthewatersurfaceatkey downstreamlocations.Makingsurethatthereisfuturecompliancewiththeseguidelinevalues
TERRESTRIALSYSTEMS Institutionalrequirements o EstablishReservoirandWatershedManagementBoardsorAuthorityforeachhydropowerproject.Thereservoir andthelandsurroundingthemshouldbemanagedmoresustainablyandproductively.ThiscanNOTbethesole responsibilityofthedamoperators.Eachdamorcascadeofdamsshouldhaveareservoirandwatershed managementboard,whichshouldbeestablishedbeforeconstructionstartswithactivitiesshouldbefinancedfrom damoperationalbudget. o Membershipshouldincluderepresentationofdamoperators,ministriesorprovincialdepartmentsofforestry, agriculture,fisheries,waterresources,ripariancommunities,fishermenandfarmersorganisations o Responsibleformanagementofwatershed,recreationofwetlandsandimprovementofhabitatandbiodiversity inreservoir. AQUATICSYSTEMS Institutionalrequirements MRChaskeyrolein: o Carryingoutresearchandsurveysonkeycomponentsoftheaquaticandterrestrialecosystem o Developmentofframeworksforprotectionofkeyhabitatsoftheriver o Guidanceforflowsandsedimentflushingofdams o AnalysingandpublishingresultsofmonitoringimpactsofalldamsonMekongespeciallyecosystemhealth, fisheries,agricultureonannualbasis o SustainabilityassessmentofdamsforPNPCAprocess o Cultureandtourismprotectionanddevelopment Ministriesofwater,environment,naturalresources,agriculture,forestryandfisherieshaveresponsibilitiesfor: o EnsuringthequalityofEIAsandEMPsandmanagement o ApplicationoftheframeworksstandardsandguidelinesdevelopedbyMRC o Ensuringcomplianceofdamdevelopers,contractorsandoperatorswithregulations,standardsand agreements 166
Capacitybuilding o ImprovethequalityofEIAstoincludecomprehensivehabitat,biodiversityandecosystemassessments(notjust fish) o Improvecapacityofregulatingagenciestoappraisebiodiversityandecosystemassessments o Establishstandardsformonitoringofaquaticecosystemandbiodiversityandensurethatthesearecarriedoutto establishabaselineatleastoneyear(ormore)beforeconstructionstarts o Compileandassessallecosystemandbiodiversitymonitoringrecordsfromallhydropowerschemesonan annualbasisMRCtoanalyseandpublishtheresults o EIAstoincludeassessmentofriverbasedculturalassets,sitesandfestivals o Buildcapacitiesofregulatoryauthoritiesformonitoringandenforcementofenvironmentalquality,flowsand operationofhydropowerdams SOCIALSYSTEMS Institutionalrequirements o Localprovincial&districtauthoritiesmustbeinvolvedindevelopmentofmainstreamdamstointegratepoverty alleviationstrategies o Allhealthprogrammesshouldincludeprovincialanddistricthealthauthorities,andsupporttocapacity strengtheningprovided o MonitoringofsocialimpactsandpovertyalleviationmustbelinkedtonationalMDGgoalsandtargets o FearofcompensationclaimspreventinglocalauthoritiesfromundertakingIECwithlocalcommunities;regular changesofadministrativestaffmeannotificationproceduresmaynotbetransferredtonewstaff. o Annualprogrammesforemergencypreparednesstrainingandrunthrough o Developmentofwaterusergroups Capacitybuilding o Capacitystrengtheningofprovincial&districtauthoritiestoaddresssocial,livelihoodandhealthimplicationsof direct&indirectimpacts,andtolinknationalpovertyalleviationstrategieswithensuringlivelihoodsecurityof indirectlyaffectedcommunities o Capacityofdistrictandprovincialauthoritiestoenforcewatershedprotection(e.g.logging,mining,slash/burn) requiresstrengthening o Capacityoflocalauthoritiestopreventoutsidersfromaccessingfisheriesopportunitiesrequiresstrengthening o Raiseawarenessforlocaladministrationsongapsbetweennationalpracticeandinternationalsafeguards compliancerequirements o Providetrainingfordistrictandprovincialadministrationsonnationalandinternationalsocialandenvironmental safeguardsstandards
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXVII
ANNEXVII:HYDROPOWERDESIGNANDMITIGATIONRECOMMENDATIONS
AlltheserecommendationsshouldbeconsideredinthedesignoftheproposedhydropowerschemesontheMekong mainstreamifOptions3and4arefollowed.Somemayhavetobeconsideredanddevelopedduringthedeferment periodofOption2. ENERGYANDPOWER o o EnsurethatallproposedprojectscomplywiththeMRCPreliminaryDesignGuidance Developrulesandregulationscovering o Operatingrules o Backwatereffects o Unifiedflowmanagement o Emergencyprocedures
HYDROLOGYANDSEDIMENT Avoidancereconsideringproposedprojects o Excludehighimpactprojects:Notalltheprojectshavethesamescaleofimpactonthehydrosedimentregime andtheomissionofsomeprojectscouldavoidsomeimpactsinlocalisedareasofthebasin o predictedreductionsinthetransportandarrivalofmediumandcoarsesizedsedimentstoZone5could bedelayedbytheorderofdecadesiftheZone3andZone4projects(BanKoum,LatSua,StungTreng, andSambor)donotproceed o Enforceacontinuousoperatingstrategyforallmainstreamprojectsinorderavoidrapidfluctuationsinwater surfacelevels(e.g.atthehourly,dailyandweeklytimestep). o Thisismostcriticalforprojectswith:(i)largecommunitiesdownstream,and/or(ii)substantial downstreamirrigation(LuangPrabang,PakLay,PakChom,BanKoum,LatSua,StungTreng,Kratie) o Reduceoperatingwaterlevels:AtpresentLMBmainstreamprojectsmaintainreservoirwaterlevels510m abovetheQ1000levelforsignificantstretchesofthereservoir(10100km). o e.g.CNROptimisationstudyhasalreadyreducedoperatingwaterlevels&avoided:(i)transboundary disputesatPakBeng,(ii)operatordisputeswithintheLaoCascade o redesignofsomeprojectstoreducethewaterlevelsinthereservoirtoremainbeloworcomparableto alessextremeevent(e.g.theQ20floodevent)wouldavoidthepermanentinundationofsome wetlands,floodplainsandcommunitiesinZone2and3 Mitigation 1. Impact:Streampowerreductioninthereservoirscausesdepositionofsediment. Mitigation: o Sluicingtoremovesedimentwillbeundertakenatthedams,buttheeffectofsluicingwillinfluenceonly thereservoirbedwithinashortdistance(100to200m)upstreamofthedams.Themajorityofthe reservoirbottomwillaccumulatesediment. Recommendation:Developersandoperatorsmustcomplywithsedimentflushingandsluicingrequirementsfor mainstreamdams(e.g.MRCTechnicalGuidance). 2. Impact:Permanentinundationofriversideareasassociatedwithhighwaterlevelsinreservoirs Mitigation: o Controlprojectoperatinglevels:Redesignofprojectssothatproposedmaximumreservoirlevelsare lowerthanhighwaterlevelsthatresidentsareaccustomedto,e.g.<20yearreturnperiodfloodlevels. Anenergygenerationpenaltyintheforecastelectricityproductionwillbealikelyoutcome.Thiscould evenavoidsomeinundationimpacts o Protectdirectlyaffectedcommunities:Localdykeswithpumpingfacilitiesinsidedykestoprotect villages,touristandculturalsitesfrominundation. o Cleararrangementsforbothresponsibilityandfundingformaintainingandoperatingthedykes/pumps willbeneeded. Recommendation:Developersshouldconsiderrisksandimpactsandtakeappropriatemeasures.Regulating agenciesshouldcarefullyassessproposedmitigationmeasures 3. Impact:Largehourlychangesinwatersurfacelevel,associatedwithturbineoperationtomatchpeaksand troughsindailyloads 168
4.
5.
Mitigation: o Controlmodeofoperation:Projectstobeoperatedinsteadyloadmode,orinreducedpeakingmode withonlyminorfluctuationsfromhourtohour.Themagnitudeofpermissiblefluctuationswillneedto besetandenforcedbyanindependentauthority o Reregulatingdamsarenotrecommendedfordampeningdaminducedchangestohydrology(e.g.the Lancangcascade).ForLMB,Reregulationdamsarenotsuitablebecauseoftheverylargedailywater volumesinvolvedinthemainstreamprojects.Theywouldneedtobeabouthalfthereservoirlength (~50+km)andwouldneedtobeplaceddownstreamofaprojectoracascade.Theywouldmultiply negativeimpactsfromthedams RecommendationGovernmentsmustregulatepriortoprojectstartup,toensurethatsatisfactory guidelines/rulesareinplaceforoperations,andthenestablishanindependenttechnicalauthoritywhichcan enforceguidelinesandmonitoroperations Impact:Unexpectedlargechangesinturbineflow,arisingfromunforeseenbreakdownsinpowerhouseplant, substations,ortransmissionfacilities.Rapidloadsheddingcausingwaterflowviaturbinestocease,andrapid resumptionofgeneration/flow. Mitigation:Earlywarningsystemforriverbankinhabitants,followingshutdownsandstartupsofpowerhouse turbines. RecommendationGovernmentsmustdecideonguidelinesforsatisfactoryratesoframping,andon arrangementsforearlywarning Impact:Floodreleasesandcatastrophicdamagetodamfacilities,resultingfrommechanical/electricalfailureof spillwaygatehoistmechanisms Mitigation: o Designoffloodgatefacilitieswithmultiplebackupmechanical/electricalcontrols,toensureoperationof gateswithoutfailwhenneeded o Comprehensivedamsafetyreviews,undertakenregularly,byateamofindependentinternationalandlocal experts,withrapidfollowupontheirrecommendations o Earlywarningbyrapidcommunications,betweendamoperatorsintheproposedseriesofmainstreamdams. o Earlywarningofproblemstodownstreamriversideinhabitants Recommendation:MRCandRegulatingagenciesshouldestablishcommonguidelinesfordamsafety,including provisionforindependentreviewforalldams,andearlywarningsystems. Impact:Irrigationpumpstationinfrastructurerenderedinoperable.Associatedwithveryhighwaterlevelsinthe riverassociatedwithreservoirmaximumoperatinglevelsandchangestothedeposition/scourareasforsediment Mitigation: o Pumpstationfacilitiestoberaisedtopreventinundation,orstationstobemovedintheeventsofpersistent siltationofintakes. o Newinfrastructuremayberequired,e.g.reregulatingponds o Pumpstobechangedifneeded,andreplacedwithpumpswhoseflow/headcharacteristicsprovidebetter matchestothewaterlevelsintheproposedreservoirs. o Somefloatingpumpswillneedbankprotectionworksorrelocationtoavoidbeingrenderedinoperable Recommendation:Developersshouldassessriskstoirrigationinfrastructure(upstreamanddownstream)and provideappropriatemitigationmeasures Impact:Depletionofbedmaterialdepositsinreachesdownstreamofdams,witherosionofthebanksandbedof theriver Mitigation:Stabilisationofriverbanksandmidchannelislandsinlocalisedareasbyusingbankprotectionsuch asriprap.Notfeasibleforerosionprotectionofextensivereaches,becauseofhighcostformaterialsand construction. Recommendation:DevelopersshouldassessrisksofdownstreambedandbankerosionaspartofESIAswith appropriatemitigationmeasures.Regulatingagenciesmustappraiseadequacyandapproveprovisions. Impact:Siltation(allsizesofsediment)atheadwaterreachesofreservoirs,associatedwithlossofenergyin flowingwaters.Difficultieswithnavigation,andinstabilityofriverchannel Mitigation:Dredgingandtruckingofsedimentdeposits,particularlytoensurethatanavigablechannelis maintained Recommendation:Developersshouldmonitorandreportonsiltationinreservoirs,anddredgetoappropriate depthsifnecessarytomaintainnavigability Impact:Lossofannualsiltdepositiononthefloodplain,resultinginlossofnutrientsforsoilfertility 169
6.
7.
8.
9.
Mitigation:enhancedfertiliseruse,particularlyinareassubjecttolargesiltationrates,e.g.withinabout1kmof themajorchannels~25,000km2inCambodia&VietNam. Recommendation:Noadequatedirectcompensation.NationalagenciesinCambodiaandVietNamshould establishlongtermmonitoringprogrammetoassesslossinsoilfertility 10. Impact:ChangesinextentofsubmergedMekongdelta,becauseofreducedsedimentsupplyfromtheriver. Expectedresultinglossofstabilityofbanksofdeltaicchannelsandmaincoastline.Lossoffishpondandmangrove producingareas. Mitigation:Riprappingwithorwithoutdykes,butapplicableinlocalisedareasonlybecauseofhighcost,and difficultyofmaintenance. Recommendation:Noadequatedirectcompensation.NationalagenciesinVietNamshouldestablishlongterm monitoringprogrammetoassesssedimentchangesinMekongDelta. 11. Impact:Riverthalwegthatpresentlydefinesinternationalboundarywillmoveinsomelocations.Lossofriver channelfeatureswhichdefineinternationalboundaryline,e.gThailandLaoPDRboundary. Mitigation:Negotiationsifneeded,toreachagreementandconfirmlatitude/longitudeofbreakpointsin boundaryline. Recommendation:Wherethereisariskofchangeinalignmentofinternationalboundariesduetoreservoirsand channelsdownstreamofdams,studiesonthepredictedchangeswillbeneeded,followedbynegotiationsand agreementsbetweenthetwocountries. Enhancement o Reservoirsshouldbedevelopedandmanagedasmultiuseprojectstoimprovetheoverallbalancebetween opportunitiesandrisks o Enhancementofpowerproductionthroughpeakingoperations LMBmainstreamprojectscouldtheoreticallybebroughton&offlinewithveryshortramping rates(orderofminutes) Profitabilityoftheprojectswouldincreasesubstantiallyifelectricitygenerationwastimedto matchpeakdemandtimes o Enhancementofmultipurposewaterusethrough: Installationofnewpumpinginfrastructure Waterlicensing&allocationofquantitiesforirrigationand/ordomesticuse o TradeoffbetweenpowerproductionandMultipurposeuse Avoiding/mitigatingimpactsonthenaturalsystem o Ifpeakingoperationischosenthenmostnegativeimpactswillbeexacerbatedandpotentialbenefits forirrigationwouldbesignificantlyreduced AQUATICECOSYSTEMS Construction o Establishclearguidanceforgoodenvironmentalmanagementofconstructionactivities, o Monitortheperformanceofcontractorsanddevelopersandensurecompliance o Ensurethatcontractorsanddevelopershaveemergencyresponseplansinplace,equippedandstafftrained. o Monitorfishcatchesandaquaticecosystemhealthupstreamanddownstreamofdamsitesbeforeandduring construction,compileandpublishresultsforalldams o Phaseconstructionactivitiestominimisedisruptiontoriverbasedtourismactivities o Providealternativeriverbasedtransportaroundthedamsites o Assessanddevelopmeasuresforcompensationoflossoftourismincomesduringconstructionphase,including forsmallscaletourismserviceproviders Operation o Monitorperformanceofdamoperatorsandensurecompliancewithagreementsandregulationsinflow variabilityandsedimentflushing o Monitorpassageoffinesedimentandassociatednutrientsdownthesystem,includingintheMekongPlume. o Monitorfishcatchesandaquaticecosystemhealthupstreamanddownstreamofdamsandinreservoirs, compileandpublishresultsforalldams o MonitorfishcatchesintheMekongPlume o Enhancetheecologicaldiversityofhabitatsinreservoirs, o Assessdischargesofeffluentsthatmayaffectreservoirwaterqualityanddeveloptreatment o Establishandmaintainmeasuresforprotectionofriverbasedculturalassets,sitesandfestivals
170
FISHERIES Designimprovements o ReassessingdamlocationDamsupstreamarebiologicallylessdamagingthanthosedownstream.ButInorder tosustainreservoirproductivity,tributariesupstreamofexistingdamsshouldnotbedammed.Itiscriticalto maintainatleastoneintactmigrationsystemforfish,fromtheseatobreedingsitesinupstreamtributaries.An integratedsystemincludingfisheriesconsiderationsfortheselectionofdamlocationispossible,bearinginmind speciesmigrationranges,damlocations,possiblehabitatloss,andlocalfisherystudies. o DiversionsandintegratedprojectsDiversioncanalscanutiliseonlyafractionofrivervolumeforhydropower leavingthenaturalriverintactforfishmigrations,E.g.:18plantsontheRhoneRiverbetweenSwitzerlandand Franceproduce~3000MWwithoutblockingtheriver;Integratedprojectscancombinehydropowerwithseveral otheruses o OfftakemanagementUsingmultiplelevelsofofftakefromthereservoircanreducetheanoxicconditionof waterdownstream,andincreasewaterquality o SpillwaydesignanddownstreamaerationSpillwayscanimproveimprovedwaterqualitydownstream(re oxygenationandreleaseofmethane) o VegetationclearingPartialclearingofvegetationisthebestoptionforreservoirfisheriesandwaterquality o Removesoftmaterialgiveslessdecayandimprovedwaterquality o Leavesomehardmaterialforfishhabitats/sanctuariesinthereservoir o FillingscheduleReservoirfillingscheduleswhichblocktoomuchofthenaturalflowdevastateriverecology.It isbesttomimicpreprojectseasonalflowsandnotreducedownstreamflowbymorethan10% o FishpassesabletocopewithMigrations: ~50speciesofcommerciallongdistancemigrants;8pulses/yearinKhoneFalls;30tonnes/hourinTonleSap 1. NaturalbypasschannelsMadeviaexcavationofoneoftheriverbanks;Canmimicarealstream; CommoninEuropeandNorthAmerica;Onlypossibleincertainareasandforverylowdams.Mekong MainstreamDams(MMD):possibleforDonSahong. 2. PoolfishpassesDividestheheightofthedamviaaseriesofstaggeredpools(stepsof1540cm);Common throughoutNorthAmericaandEurope;Appropriateforpassesthatmustaccommodatenumerousspecies; bestforlowdams(<10m).MMD:notsuitablegiventheheightofmainstreamdams 3. VerticalslotfishpassesVerticalslotsinthebafflesallowfishtoswimatanypreferreddepththrougheach slot;Goodformigrationsinvolvingmultiplespecies;Noprovenefficacybeyond30mhighdams.MMD: cannotaccommodatethesizeanddiversityofmainstreammigrations 4. WeirtypepassesNotchesandorificesmodulateflowandprovidedifferentkindsofpassagestofishes; Generallysmallinsize,andoftenusedforsalmoninNorthAmerica.MMD:cannotaccommodatethesize anddiversityofMekongmainstreammigrations 5. DeniltypepassesUsespacedbafflesonthesidewallandthefloorsothatcurrentspeeddoesnotexceed swimmingcapabilityoftargetspecies;Usefulforlargefishspecies;MainlyusedinN.AmericaandW. Europe;Bestsuitedforamaximumheightof30;cantolerateonlymoderatevariationsinupstreamwater level.MMD:toospecific,cannotaccommodatesizeofmigrationsandvariabililtyinreservoirs 6. FishlocksWhenfishenterthelock,thelowergatescloseandtheuppergatesopen;Canbeusedfordams upto60mhigh;Thelockshavelowcapacityanddependontheabilitytoattractfishes.MMD:cannot accommodatethesizeofmainstreamMekongmigrations 7. FishliftsLiterallyliftfishfromtailwateruptoreservoir;Canbeusedforveryhighdams;Suitableonlyfor largefishspecies;needtoattractfish;onlyafewdozenindividualsaremovedatatime.MMD:totally inappropriategiventhesizeanddiversityofMekongmigrations Afterdamconstruction o ReservoiraeratorsImprovedaerationmeansimprovedconditionsforfish(contaminants,food production)inreservoir&downstream;Reservoiraerationcanbecomeexpensiveforlargereservoirs o MitigationofdownstreameffectsConcept:mimicpredamnaturalflowconditions.Maintainenvironmental flowsof(minimum)2050%ofpreprojectlevels.Verycomplex,requirescasebycasestudiestodetermine appropriatemanagementscheme SOCIALSYSTEMS Design o Reviewtechnicaldesigntoprovideembankmentsorlowerriskdesign,toavoidadditionalrelocation;provision ofhigherirrigatedlandiflandlostismorethan10%ofproductiveassets o Undertakecomprehensivewatershedmanagementprogrammesintandemwithprojectactivities Operation 171
Maintainregularwaterlevelmonitoring;stopdamoperationswhenagreedlevelsreached;O&Mprocedures mustincludedownstreamwarningincaseofsuddenwaterrelease,especiallyindenselypopulatedareas,e.g. Pakse
NAVIGATION Designimprovements o Shiplocksmustbeappropriatedimensionsandoperational.MRChasproposedthepreliminarilydesign specificationsforMekongnavigationlocks. o Minimumrequirements,standardsandguidelinesshouldbeadoptedforthedesign,construction,maintenance andoperationofshiplockspriortotheconstructionofmainstreamhydropowerdams. Enhancement o Investmentsintradefacilitation,portservices,andmaintainingtheimprovingnavigationchannelwillbe requiredbymembercountriesanddevelopmentpartners. o ProposedInternationalcruiseswillrequirefurtherinvestmentinfleet,portandcustomsservicestoensuresafe andsustainablenavigationontheMekongRiver. CLIMATECHANGE o Allproposedprojectsshouldincorporatefindingsfromdesignreviewstakingtheincreasedrisksofextreme eventsdroughtsandfloodsbaseduponMRCclimatechangeguidance
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ANNEXVIII:ENVIRONMENTALANDSOCIALSAFEGUARDSRECOMMENDATIONS
ThefollowingmeasureswouldallbeapplicableforOptions3and4,butmayrequiredevelopmentduringOption2.In general,thereisarequirementtostrengthenandimproveenvironmentalandsocialsafeguards,andtobuildthenational andprovinciallevelcapacitiesforenforcement. ENVIRONMENTALSAFEGUARDS EnergyandPower o DevelopmechanismsintheMRCforapplicationoftransboundarysafeguardswhichsupportnationalsystems E.g.expandingPreliminaryDesignGuidanceformainstreamschemes Terrestrial o Compensateforlossofforestland,byreplacementplantingondegradedlandnearthelostland o Reviewlostwetlandtypesandattempttorecreatelostwetlandsadjacenttothereservoirs o Specificcompensationmeasuresforlossoflandscapeamenityandaquaticbiodiversity(PhaTaemandPhou XiangThongprotectedareas(BanKoum)(ThailandandLaoPDRLaoPDR) o SpecificcompensationmeasuresforlossoflandscapeamenityandaquaticbiodiversityatStungTrengRamsar site.TheRamsarConventionshouldbeinformedassoonaspossibleaboutthepotentialthreatstoStungTreng, requestinginclusionontheMontreuxRecord.(Cambodia) o MonitorsedimentloaddownstreamandagriculturalproductivityintheMekongDelta Aquatic o NationalgovernmentstoestablishprotectedreachesoftheMekongRiversystem. o Considermultipleuseofthereservoirs,infullknowledgeofconsequencesofdiversionsofwaterondownstream areas(salineintrusion,acidificationinthedryseason) Fisheries o Fishpassagesystemsshouldalwaysbeinstalled,evenifnotcurrentlyveryeffective, o Provisionoftraininginnewfisheriestechniques,annualstockingofreservoirandtributaryfisheries SOCIALSAFEGUARDS EnergyandPower o Introducebenefitsharingarrangements(seeboxonbenefitsharing),betweenStatesaspartof1995Agreement andadditionallyfromRegional>National>Local.Thisshouldbepartoftariffmechanismwithconsumersbased ontheuserpaysprinciple Terrestrial o Provideadequatecompensationforlossofagriculturalland(damsite,inundation,accessroadsandtransmission lines) o Developstandardsforfaircompensationand/oralternativemeasuresforreplacementofriverbankgardens applicablethroughouttheLMB o Ensurecompliancewithstandardsforcompensation/replacementforriverbankgardens o DevelopcompensationmeasuresforthelossofagriculturalandfisheryproductivitiesintheDelta. Socialsystems o Replacementlandfordirectlyaffectedhouseholdstoincludeirrigationoptions o Ensurerelocatedcommunitiesaresettledasdiscretevillagestomaintainsocioculturalties o Ensurerelocatedcommunitiesaresettledinareasnotatriskoferosion.Ensureprojectrelatedinfrastructure (roads,etc.)arewellprotectedfromflowchangesbyembankments o Wellplannedhealth,watersupply,drainage&sanitationprogrammesimplementedwellinadvanceofimpacts. Risksareloweredbycompetentandtimelyhealthprogrammesinplace. o Contractortoimplementeffectivehealth&safetyprogrammeforlabourforce o Effectivefloodpreparednessandemergencycontingencyplanningneeded,basedoncomprehensiveknowledge base(e.g.GISbasedinundationmaps,catalogueofeconomicassetsatrisk,villagelocations,contactpersons, safeareas,communicationsmethodology o Comprehensiveandseparatepackageofmitigationmeasuresfordirectly&indirectlyaffectedpeople,with specialmeasuresforpoor&vulnerablegroups,particularlyethnicminoritiesandfisheriesdependent households o Putmitigationmeasuresintoplacewellbeforeconstructionimpactsarefelt
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SEAOFMEKONGMAINSTREAMHYDROPOWER|FINALREPORT|ANNEXVIII
o o o o o o o o o o o Programmeofcommunityawarenessaboutsafewaterandsanitationuse.Applyprogrammeofparasitic infectioneradicationamongadultsandchildren. Programmeofregisteringandhealthtrackingoflocalsexworkers,andoflabourforcewhenreturningfrom homeleave Implementprogrammeofparasiticinfectioneradicationamongadultsandchildren.Implementnutrition awarenessprogrammesforAPs IECprogrammeundertakenwithcommunitiesinimpactareas;emergencypreparednessplansinplaceanddam operators&localauthoritiesknowwhattheseare&howtoimplementthem Revenuesharingbydeveloperswithaffectedprovincesandcountriesforpovertyalleviationmeasures particularlyforindirectlyaffectedhouseholdslosingfisheries Earmarkedjobswithcontractorsanddevelopers;fishladders,traininginnewfisheriestechniques;annual stockingofreservoirandtributaryfisheries SpecialprovisiontorestoreAPlivelihoods,andtoprovidefacilitiesneededtohelpdistricts&provincestomeet MDGs(e.g.provisionofcleanwatersupply,sanitation,goodqualityhousing,etc.) Provisionofreplacementsmallriverboatssuitableforrapidflowsand/orreservoirswhereappropriate EnsurethatAPsandlongestablishedripariancommunitieshavesolerightstoreservoirfisheries Prohibitiononconcessionsawardsonlandprovidedtoaffectedpeople.Secureandpermanentlandtenure rightsallocated. Ensurethatsmallbutpowerfulinterestgroupsdonothavetheopportunitytograbbenefitsforthemselves,but thatanybenefitsaredistributedtothosedirectlyandindirectlyaffected Landallocationandsecuretenurerightstoaffectedhouseholds,particularlythosefisheriesdependent
o Navigation o Channelimprovement,aidstonavigationandmoreinvestmentinvesselandportservicestosignificantly improvetheeffectivenessofinlandwaterwaytransportandprovideeconomicopportunitiesforriparian communities.
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FINALREPORT

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OFHYDROPOWERONTHE MEKONGMAINSTREAM

MRC position on the proposed mainstream hydropower dams in the LowerMekongBasin

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ICEMAustralia MekongRiverCommission 2010MekongRiverCommission ICEM,2010,MRCStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA)ofhydropowerontheMekong mainstream,Hanoi,VietNam. www.icem.com.au|http://www.mrcmekong.org/ish/SEA.htm

ICEMAustralia InternationalCenterforEnvironmentalManagement 14AWallisAvenue, GlenIris,Victoria3146, Australia MekongRiverCommission,2010;ZebHogan,2009; PeterJohnMeynell,2010,PeterWard,2003

A b o u tthe S E Ao fHydropowero n the Mekong mainstream

By2008,electricityutilizationintheGreaterMekongSubregion(GMS)(940kWh/person/yr)hadreachedabouttwo thirdsofthedevelopingworldaverage 8 InstalledcapacitymeasuredinWatts(W),ormultiplesthereof,istheratedmaximumpowergenerationcapacityof installedgenerators. 9 Assuming90%isexportedtoThailandandVietnam

Inmostcases,replacementofexistingirrigationshouldbefundedaspartofprojectcompensationcosts. Benefitsharing;especiallyrevenuesharingisimportanttoensurethebenefitsaccruingattheregionalornationallevel aretransferredtolocallevel.

Proceedinacautious& plannedmanner (2mainoptions)

PARTI:HYDROPOWERONTHEMEKONG RIVERPROPOSALSANDSTRATEGIC OPTIONS

VientianetoPakse PaksetoKratie [LaosectionaboveKhonefalls] [CambodiasectionbelowKhonefalls] KratietoPhnomPenh PhnomPenhtoSouthChinaSea

TheMRC1995AgreementandtheestablishmentoftheMRCBasinDevelopmentPlan(BDP)representimportant pioneeringstepsbytheregiontowardsintegratedandsustainableplanningofdevelopment,whilespecificprojectlevel guidanceisprovidedinthe2010MRCHydropowersustainabledevelopmentguidelines..

OPERATONS(GOVERNMENT) REFURBISHMENT, UPGRADEor DECOMMISSIONING ENDPROJECT ECONOMICLIFE

Note:Phasingaboveisbasedona50yearlifecyclewhichisconsistentwiththetimeframeusedbyMRC tocomputecapitalrecoverycosts.Dependingontheoperationsandmaintenancestrategiestheprojects maylastforlongerthan50years

mainstreamdamsoptionisnotastrategyforcomplacencyandinaction.Givenbaselinetrends,theuseofthe waterandnaturalresourcesoftheMekongstillwouldrequiremoreeffectiveandsustainablecollaborative managementthanatpresent.

MainstreamdamisusedinthisreporttorefertohydropowerprojectsthatcompletelyblocktheMekongRiverchannel,except: (i)whereotherwiseindicated(e.g.partialdams),or(ii)inthespecificcaseofDonSahongandThakhowhicharepartialdamsand diversionsrespectively.

SEAasatoolintransboundarydevelopmentplanning: 1. ServeasamethodologicalframeworkforsubbasinhydropowerSEAsintheLMB,whichwillbe carriedoutasinputtoMRCsBasinDevelopmentPlan;and 35

Inadditiontothereports,theSEAhaspreparedsome50supportingpowerpointpresentationswith30or moregoingontotheMRCandICEMwebsitesfordownloadingforuseascommunicationsandtraining materials. 37

National&sectordevelopmentplans egPower DevelopmentPlans

Localprojectspecificplanning egpowerproject concessionprocessandEIAprocedures

G O VER NM ENTD ECIS IO NP OINTS

DEV ELO PER INP UTS

Mo U ,Lettero fAg reem en t/Per mission

A ppr ov alo fEIA

P ro jectDev elop m entAg reem ent (PD A)

Po w erPur chasing Ag reem ent(PP A)

Deta iled d esig n

C on cessio nAg reem ent (h and ov eragr eemen t)

D EVELOPER IN PU TS Com m issio ning

+31tributarydams +5Chinesedams +40tributarydams 16existingdams 1Chinesedam 2030

6Chinesedams 0LMBmainstreamdams 40LMBtributarydams 4x106ha 2,938x10m

RangereflectsvariationbetweenofficialgovernmentforecastsandADBGMSEnergyFuturesorecasts IRMconsultantforecastin2008republishedin2009intheADBreportBuildingaSustainableEnergyFuture,The GreaterMekongSubregionin2009. 33 IMF.2007.IMFCountryReportNo.07/293,Cambodia:selectedissues&statisticalappendix

Thailand Viet Nam

applyingleastcostcriteriaalone.Yet,coalfiredplantsequivalenttothe12mainstreamprojectswould requirearound15milliontonnesofcoalayear,muchofwhichwouldneedtobeimported. IfLMBmainstreamprojectswerenotpursued:

7.2.2 DIRECTECONOMICBENEFITSOFMAINSTREAMPROJECTSONTHEPOWER SECTOR

8.1.1 MACROECONOMICIMPLICATIONSOFLARGESCALENATURALRESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

Average19902016 Average19902009 Average20102016

429 235 985

580 383 1,142

LaoPDRissingledouthereasitisthesmallesteconomyintheregionbyaconsiderablemargin Inalllikelihoodfiguresunderestimatethescaleofruralurbanandcrossbordermigrationmuchofitistemporaryand unofficial. 44 OnlyinLaoPDRdofiguresshowgrowthintheproportionofruralpopulationintotalpopulation.

Thisscheduleisbasedonthebestavailabledata.However,changesindesign,otherunforeseenconstruction contingenciesandchangesinpricelevelsmeaninvestmentcostsliabletosignificantchanges.Moreover,thetimeschedule fortheseprojectsislikelytochangealsodependinguponarangeofcontingencies.

Table8:Summaryofsectorcostsandbenefitsduetomainstreamdevelopment(to2030assumingall12MSHPdamsgoahead) Description Causeof Annualnetloss/gaindueto Futuretrendswithmainstreamdevelopment Indicativevalues loss/gain mainstreamdevelopment

Nett gain/ loss

Loss(riverbank gardens) Loss(inundated paddyand transmission lines)

Loss(valueof nutrients (Phosphates)to agriculture)

Anyreductioninsedimentloadandfloodingwillleadtoadecreaseinassociated nutrientreplenishment.Measuredaslossofphosphatesduetosedimenttrappingat eachoftheMSHPdams.Whileproductivityimplicationsforagriculturecouldnotbe calculated,costofartificialreplacementsgiven.

Loss(degradation ofnatural resourcebase) Gain(HPproject viewing)

N/A N/A N/A

Gain(increased navigability) Gain(increased navigability)

Construction Aquatic plants

N/A N/A LossofbetweenUSD4million andUSD13.8millionperyear (2000prices)

N/A Net loss Netloss

Flooding/ floodcontrol Saline intrusion

Gain(reduction inflooding) N/A

Someminorfloodcontroleffects,buttherebenefitsoffsetbyunpredictabilityof decisionsforopening/closingspillwaygatesandflushinggatesatthedams Nosignificantimpact

Asmostfishersarefromareaswherepovertyratestendtobeabovethenationalaveragewiththepossibleexceptionof LaoPDRwhereuplandareasaresomeofthepoorest 48 Benefitsharing;especiallyrevenuesharingisimportanttoensurethebenefitsaccruingattheregionalornationallevel aretransferredtolocallevel.

FLOODEDAREA:2030willseeatypicalreductionof~300,000hainfloodedarea,themajorityofwhichwill affectareaswithflooddepthsgreaterthan3m(Figure20).Thiswillaffectmorethan15%ofthefloodedarea inThailandandLao,andlessthan5%oftheareainCambodiaandVietNam.

Fig20:ChangeinfloodedareafordifferentBDPscenarios:ThedominantinfluenceoftheLancangcascadeon changestofloodedareareflectsthatthemajorityofstoragecapacityavailablewithproposedhydropower developmentiscontainedwithinthese8UpperMekong dams '000 ha Flooded area assessments

142 228 708 1,055 2,133

307 668 794 5 1,773

484 945 1,673 1,562 4,664

Total flooded area by depth class