STATISTICS

General Secondary Certificate SECOND STAGE 2008

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Chapter ( 1 )

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Probability

Random Experiment: It is an experiment in which we can specify all its possible outcomes in advance before carrying it out, but we can't predict in certainly these outcomes which will exactly occur when the experiment is carried out. Sample space: The sample space (outcomes space) is a set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment and is denoted by the symbol S.
Examples on the sample space:

1- Tossing a coin once and observing its upper face. S = { H ,T } Notice that : Number of elements in S = n ( S ) = 21 = 2 2- Tossing a coin twice and observing its upper face. S = { ( H , H ) , ( H ,T ) , ( T , H ) , ( T ,T ) } n ( S ) = 22 = 4 H Or T H T H T HH ( HT ( , , , ,

T H( TT ( Exercise (1)

) ) ) )

Write the sample space of each of the following random experiments showing the number of its elements: 1Tossing a coin three consecutive times and observing its upper

face. An experiment of tossing a die once and observing the number appearing on the upper face.
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An experiment of tossing a die two consecutive times and observing the number appearing on the upper face.
34Tossing a single die then tossing a coin and observing what appears on their faces. 5Select one card from the playing cards and observe its colour. 6Choose one digit from the digits of the number26345 7Choose a prime number x such that 10 < x < 20 8El-Ahly, El-Zamalek and El- Ismaily participate in a tri-competition and observe : (a) The winner (b)The order of the three teams. 9Toss two distinct coins once and observe the appearance of heads and tails. 10-In each of two boxes, there are 4 cards numbered 1 , 2 , 3 and 4 . The experiment is to select one card from each of the two boxes and observe the two written numbers. 10- Get a number consisting of two different digits from 1, 2, 3, and 4. 11- Get a number consisting of two digits from 0, 1, 2. 12- A family has 3 children (no twins).observe the sex of the children and the order of their ages. 13- A box contains 3 balls ; the first is red, the second is white and the third is black. The experiment is to choose two balls and observe their colours. (a) with replacement. (b) without replacement. 14- A box contains 3 balls, 3 white balls and one black ball. The experiment is to choose two balls one after the other and observe their colours. 15-Shoot at goal at most 3 times and stop when hitting the goal. 16- A die is designed such that three of its faces carry the number 2 and the other three faces carry the number 4 the experiment is to throw the die 3 times and observe the number on the upper face.

The event: The event is a subset of the sample space. The certain event (sure event): It is the event which must be occurred when doing the experiment. The impossible event: It is the event which is impossible to occur and is denoted by . The simple event (elementary event): The simple event is a subset of the sample space which contains only a single element.
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Example:
In the experiment of tossing a single die and observing the number on the upper face: i) Write the sample space. ii) Write down each of the following events and show which one of these events is simple, sure or impossible event: (1) A= the event of getting a number greater than or equal to 3. (2) B= the event of getting a number less than 5. (3) C= the event of getting a number divisible by 3. (4) D= the event of getting an old number which is not prime. (5) H= the event of getting a number x: 2<x<3. (6) K= the event of getting a number x: 0<x<7. Solution: i) S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } ii) (1)A= { 3, 4 , 5 ,6 } (2) B = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } (3)C= {3 , 6 } (4) D ={ 1 } a simple event (5)H= impossible event (6) K = { 1 , 2 , 3 ,4 , 5 , 6 } sure event.

Assignment of probability P(A) = number of elements of A number of elements of A = number of all outcomes number of elements of S

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Chapter ( 4 )
Correlation
Correlation is a relation between two or more variables. Direct correlation: when the two variables change in the same direction ( increasing or decreasing ). Inverse correlation: when one of the two variable change increasing the other decreasing and vice versa.

Pearson's linear correlation coefficient:

r= n xy ( x ) ( y ) nx 2 ( x )
2

n y 2 ( y )

Remarks: 1-If r > 0 ( positive ) means direct correlation. 2-If r < 0 ( negative ) means inverse correlation. 3-If r = 1 means perfect direct correlation. 4-If r = -1 means perfect inverse correlation. 1 r 1 56- r doesn't change if we add or subtract any constant to or from all values of the first variable and also from the second variable.

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0 1 0 < r 0.4 Direct weak

0.4 0.4 < r 0.6 Direct moderate

0.6 0.6 < r 0.99 Direct strong

If the sign is negative then it is inverse.

Example: From the following data calculate Pearson's correlation coefficient between x and y and determine its type: x
Y 2 8 1 5 4 9 6 12 5 9 3 6

Solution: x 2 1 4 6 5 3 21 Qr =

x2 8 4 5 1 9 16 12 36 9 25 6 9 49 91 n xy ( x ) ( y )
2

y2 64 25 81 144 81 36 431

xy 16 5 36 72 45 18 192

nx 2 ( x )

n y 2 ( y

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r = =

6 192 21 49 6 91 ( 21)
2

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6 431 ( 49 )

123 = 0.883 105 185

its type is direct correlation .

Exercises
1-Find Pearson's correlation coefficient between x and y in each of the following tables:

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