WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Key Highlights Indices Increased silver volatility; look more toward gold to hedge systemic financial risk Mixed macro economic numbers creating doubts on US dollar index Gold might be firm as concerns have not yet eased Silver likely to be volatile; ratio would favor gold in near term Crude Looks to gains; as mkt. overreacted for US inventory numbers BMs seem to gain in short run, but medium term depends on Chinese monetary policy Cancelled warrants is only major cue for the BMs now CME Review: Investor resulted in sell commodities shuffling has off in agri Roger DJIA Latest 3982.57 12638.74

Commodity Indices Previous 4405.53 12810.54 Forex Movement Currency USD-INR USD-EURO USD-JPY DOLLAR IDX Latest 44.73 1.45 80.22 74.91 Previous 44.23 1.49 81.33 72.93 WTD % -1.12 -2.19 1.38 2.72 MTD % -1.12 -2.19 1.38 2.72 YTD % -0.04 8.71 1.37 -5.21 WTD % -9.60 -1.34 MTD % -9.60 -1.34 YTD % 2.21 9.17

Performance of Equity Indices Indices SENSEX NIFTY CNX 500 DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500 FTSE 100 HANG SENG NIKKEI Latest 18518.81 5551.45 4460.45 12638.74 2827.56 1340.20 5976.77 23159.14 9859.20 Previous INDIA 18998.02 5701.30 4573.65 12810.54 2873.54 1363.61 EUROPE 6068.16 ASIA PACK 23805.63 9671.96 -2.72 1.94 -2.37 0.10 0.54 -3.61 -1.51 -1.53 1.30 -2.52 -2.63 -2.48 -1.34 -1.60 -1.72 -3.23 -3.44 -3.36 -1.34 -1.60 -1.72 -9.70 -9.50 -9.72 9.17 6.58 6.56 WTD % MTD % YTD %

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Global edible oilseeds appreciation might be capped by better prospects of Argentina crop Of Indian soy complex, Oil seems to be weaker as less import demand Indian Oil price outlooks seems to be weaker due to less buying in physical mandies Indian edible oil imports parities are gradually widening Despite Arrivals, Strong off take Likely to keep pepper strong Rains damaged the harvesting crop of chilly likely to keep prices firm Turmeric Turns firmer; seems to recover from current levels Guar Complex Likely to Be Range Bound With positive Bias Due to good offtake Mentha oil sentiment turns weak; Likely to be weaken further in near future First forecast of IMDs Monsoon forcast is 98 percent of normal

Economic Release calendar (09/05/11 to 12/05/11) Cutry EC US CH US US IN UK UK EC US US Economic Data Sentix Investor Confidence Wholesale Inventories Ind. Prod. (YoY) Trade Balance Monthly Budget Statement Ind. Prod.YoY Ind. Prod. (YoY) Manuf. Prod. MoM Ind. Prod. (YoY) Initial Jobless Claims Adv. Retail Sales Expected -1.00% 14.60% -$47.0B -$65.0B 3.80% 1.10% 0.40% 0.50% -0.60% Prior 14.2 1.00% 14.80% $45.8B -$188.2B 3.60% 2.40% 0.00% 7.30% 474K 0.40% Due date 09/05 10/05 11/05 11/05 11/05 12/05 12/05 12/05 12/05 12/05 12/05 ReMarks NA Unc Dec Inc Dec Inc Dec Inc Dec NA Inc

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Bullions & Energy

Gold Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close* 1566.8 1577.4 1462.5 1491.6 -4.16 320462 -8.07 1243427 264.24

Close# 22835 21641 21880 -3.30 12459 -15.74 230846 35.22

Gold Over all commodity sell off triggered over the week has taken prices lower and the precious metals are one of the more susceptible in the current selling pressure. Positive economic data and rising margins in CME have resulted in margin triggers. As a result gold has fallen by 4.16 percent over the week. Though continuous decline in USD has pushed the precious metals higher over couple of weeks, the recent sudden spurt in USD triggered the sell off in gold. US dollar index has improved by 2.72 percent over the week after continuous sell off from the beginning of the year. Despite silver become so volatile, gold is trading consistently as the issues like sovereign debt crisis in EU and recovery issues in US are still intact. On the other hand, gold, which has not performed as much as silver retaining gains while, silver has become as volatile as exchange decisions to raise margins are denting the volumes trades. Precious metals market seems to be more volatile in the next couple of weeks as the uncertainty in the form of geo-political are looming over the market sentiment. Apart from this, the major concerns for the long term are still alive in the form of inflationary pressures mounting in emerging markets in coming year will support gold as large scale bar hording growth has been witnessed in Middle East and other South East Asian Countries. The long term seems to be constructive for gold, as secular weakness in dollar is being the major driving factor. On the other hand, Indian gold has ended at INR 21820, down by 3.30 percent over the week. Outlook for Dollar/Gold We are expecting the gold to trade in the positive zone in the near term as the dollar index has been on a weakening mode again. However, for the longer term, concerns such as inflation in EM and even DMs thereafter might offers support for precious metals again. On the other hand, INR seems to depreciate from current levels at least for a weeks time might keep Indian gold firm. Silver Silver CME active month contract has settled at $35.28 an ounce, after touching a low of $33.54 over the week with wow losses of 27.38 percent. Silver has relatively underdone over the week. Silver is trading in volatile conditions in huge volumes over last three weeks. Triggers for the current volatility appear to be another round of margins increase by CME Group, which might dampen the non-commercial net longs in commodity. At this juncture, market seems to be more volatile and likely to trade lower in coming weeks. Though gold/silver ratio has shown a turnaround after a continuous relative appreciation of silver, it has proved short-lived and it seems the current relative appreciation of silver seems to halt in the near term. We are of the view to sell silver to gold as the ratio is once again favorable for gold to buy/silver to sell. Gold/Silver ratio has reached multi year lows of 32 recently. Crude oil Crude oil too weakened due to strong USD, along with rising inventories in US as reported by the DOE. On the other hand, macro economic numbers emanated from US last week have supported crude oil to major extent. The Crude also retreated after the Energy Department reported May 4 that oil supplies in the U.S., the worlds largest energy consumer, increased 3.42 million barrels, or 0.9 percent, last week to 366.5 million, a six-month high. Supplies are 1.7 percent higher than a year ago. Gasoline demand fell 2.2 percent in the period ended April 29 to 8.94 million barrels a day Outlook for Crude Crude oil is expected to consolidate from current levels with positive bias in the near term and on the other hand natural gas seems to fall as weather is no more a concern now

USD/Troy Ounce; # INR/10 gms

US dollar index continued to be under pressure to keep gold higher

90 86 82 78 74

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800

Gold USD/Troy Ounce

USD Index

70 May-08

Dec-08

Jul-09

Feb-10

Sep-10

600 Apr-11

Source:Bloomberg Way2Wealth Research

Silver Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close * 47.97 48.09 33.54 35.28 -27.38 627.00 -58.70 8050.00 -98.71

Close# 70000 70000 51970 54919 -19.07 14338 364.61 137827 -79.42

USD/Troy Ounce; # INR/Kg

Crude Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close $ 113.89 114.83 94.63 97.18 -14.70 2183098 69.73 331066 -3.09

Close# 5040 5097 4219 4416 -11.24 9376 -39.43 778916 44.65

USD/bbl; # INR/bbl

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Base Metals & Steel

Copper Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol Close $ 9239.5 9380 8657.5 8830 -5.27 5812 113.44 221106 78.77 Close 415.9 423.95 393 399.9 -4.10 24890 871.13 528101 33.34 Base metals prices were not spared from the sell-off, although we believe the move was currency and positioning related. While we think the heightened volatility will persist near-term, we remain supportive toward the complex in the medium to longterm. Copper The recent Chinese tightening policy and less import of copper and strong dollar has resulted in sell off in copper. On the other hand, percentage of cancelled warrants at LME ware houses has been declining and they are below 5 percent over the week. The recent Chinese tightening monetary policy is throwing idea of expected inflation in EM countries. However, this is perceived to be detrimental to the manufacturing industry as the cost of credit could be higher. Chinese inflation has been discounted to limited extent. Cancelled warrants in copper are gradually moving upwhich generally keeps the prices to escalate to above 5 percent from a high of 9 percent reported a month back. Any spike above 9 percent might pull prices strongly on the higher side. Though Chinese imports of refined copper and alloy imports are stronger in January when compared with the last couple of years, February imports have fallen significantly. Though the imports numbers are generally picks up from January onwards till May, surprisingly February import numbers came on lower side by 26 percent M-o-M.This one of the disappointing for copper in the near term.
Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11

25 20 15 10 5 0 Nov-08

USD/Ton; # INR/10 Kg

Source:Bloomberg,Way2Wealth Research

%of Cancelled Warrants to Total

2 yr. Average

LME third month active contract settled at USD 8830, down by 5.27 percent. On the other hand, domestic copper has ended relatively better when compared with LME. MCX near month contract has settled at INR 399.9 over the week, down by 4.1 percent. Outlook for Copper Given the recent challenges facing the global markets, we were encouraged by the April manufacturing PMIs released last week that showed global industrial growth still growing albeit at a slower pace. Inventories Prev. week* Current Week* Weighted % Chg
* Thousand tons

Copper Inventory
600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Nov-08

LME 376 381 0.22

Comex 65 65 0.02

SHFE 132 130 0.52

Total 574 577 0.3

Region wise Cancelled Tonnage Region Asia Europe USA Weighted % Chg 2.69 12.42 3.80

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

Previous Zinc Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol Close $ 2230 2269.75 2048 2140 -4.46 3939 31.83 85700 -12.66 Close 100.9 102 91.75 96.8 -4.35 8479 119.83 96758 45.91 Stocks of Weeks Cons. Cash-3Mth. Estimated Diff. 1.60 9 10

Current 1.61 19 12

Zinc Zinc prices too got a hit after steel prices have fallen on the global front. However, zinc is one of the least selling affected commodities over the week. Zinc ended lower by 4.46 percent from the previous week with LME prices zinc to settle at USD 2140 over the week. However, MCX Active Zinc prices settled at INR 96.8, down by 4.35 percent W-o-W. Strong US dollar and weaker steel prices are expected to cap gains in zinc in next week. Zinc is the only base metals in which cancelled warrants are literally zero, which is the major cause of concern for price downside risk. Outlook for Zinc Global zinc prices might face strong resistance in the absence cancelled warrants despite of the fact that there are supply problems associated with it.

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Alum Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close $ 2766 2803 2565.25 2608 -4.96 11490 257.72 189333 100.99

Close 122.2 124.15 114.5 116.7 -4.27 2996 42.60 20417 29.48
4614000 4612000 4610000 4608000 4606000 4604000 4602000 4600000 4598000 4596000 4594000

Base Metals & Steel continues..

Aluminum Aluminium, which is stronger performance among base metals, too shed its earlier gains over the week. On the other hand sudden spurt in cancelled warrants over the week rising hopes of positiveness still intact. LME third month active contract closed down by 4.96 percent to settle at USD 2565.25 per ton. Though spike in cancelled warrants have supported aluminum in the recent past, market is now more looking on the recovery concerns in Europe, where the biggest aluminium consuming auto mobile is located. Once again the cancelled warrants have witnessed slower pace in American region, where the restocking has been witnessed due to positive macro economic numbers a couple of months earlier. In fact, global aluminium stocks have formed a saddle over the last couple of months, while cancelled warrants have dropped significantly to 3 percent from a high of 6-7 percent two month earlier. With the current fall in cancelled warrants and marginal growth in global inventories would offer a ceiling to the aluminium prices in the near term. China said its aluminium industry faces severe overcapacity, with the total smelting capacity at about 20 million tonnes, exceeding demand by 7 million tonnes.The nonferrous metals industry will have to curb the excessive expansion in smelting capacity and phase out outdated capacity. Outlook for Aluminium Though good amount of cancelled warrants have pushed aluminium prices higher over couple of weeks, again the same scenario seems to continue with a sudden spike in cancelled warrants last week. Inventories Prev. week* Current Week* Weighted % Chg
* Thousand tons

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 3-May 4-May 5-May
NET STOCK CLOSE

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2/23/2009 8/23/2009 2/23/2010 8/23/2010 2/23/2011

Average

LME 4435 4532 0.12

SHFE 434 430 0.0

Total 4486 4550 1.1

Region wise Cancelled Tonnage Region Asia Europe USA Weighted % Chg 0.21 4.54 11.16

Previous Stocks of Weeks Cons. Cash-3Mth. Estimated Diff. 7.10 -31.75 -42

Current 7.10 -31.75 -42

Cancelled Warrants to Total Stocks

Lead Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close $ 2505 2525 2200 2280 -8.73 2685 115.84 42524 41.89

Close 112 114 99.35 104.75 -7.67 3493 30.82 72193 53.02 Lead Lead has slumped heavily over the week with over 8.73 percent fall over the week. The active third month contract has settled at USD2280, down by 8.73 percent. Huge built up of inventories and strength in dollar has suppressed prices on lower side. Rising lead inventories along with weakening cancelled warrants pressurizing lead prices. Chinese demand for battery back up too reported positive gains over the week. The sudden rise in stocks to consumption levels of lead is exerting pressure over lead prices in the near term. Outlook for Lead We are expecting lead market to trade range bound to positive biased due to excess sell off in the recent couple of weeks.

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Soybean Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

CME 1391.00 1402.50 1306.50 1326.00 5.13 262686 -0.99 441200 -22.17

Ncdex# 2406 2411 2253.5 2304.5 -3.96 110630 -26.82 219170 6.93

Agri Commodities
Edible oils & oilseeds: Global edible oils prices have shown mixed tendency over the week with global prices moved up and down while the domestic traded soy complex has fallen significantly. Canadian farmers intend to boost oilseed and grain plantings by 3.5 Mn ha or 15% from last year. Planting intentions for canola are above average expectations at 7.78 Mln ha, the fifth consecutive increase. The Canadian canola crop could reach a record 13.0-13.5 Mln T in 2011. Argentine soya oil exporters recently faced a lack of demand from China and India. However, soya oil exports to North Africa were impressive at 0.35 Mln Ton so far this season, up 89% on the year. We expect sharp increases in sunflower plantings in Russia and Ukraine to new record levels this year, creating the potential for a record crop of 7.0-7.5 Mn T in Russia and of 8.1-8.5 Mln Ton in Ukraine US soybean crush declined 7% in Sept/March 2010/11, resulting from reductions in domestic soya oil demand and exports of soya meal. The recent US Crush census report has indicated that biodiesel production has increased by 69 percent M-o-M in Jan. As a result of this premiums are improving whereas Argentina basis has been softening as the harvesting starts in a couple of weeks ahead. The crop status report from Argentina is almost good and the crop size is expected to be as high as 50 mln tons. Soybean would be under a bit pressure in the short run with the better crop from Argentina. Overview of Argentina Spot Market: It was a week with weaker flat prices following weaker CBOT. Still the heavy pressure on near months is continuing when compared with the far months. The weak lineup for the month of April has disappointed the market. June traded down to -315N for about 25K tons. Though harvest has been delayed over the week due to poor weather, good yields are reported in few areas. As a result of which, Argentina crop is expected to as high as 50 mln tons. On the other hand, Soy meal market remains dull over the week. Orders are in such as way that hand to mouth situation. At the same time supplies in the form of offering are also on the side. Outlook Indian soy complex is also under weaker trend as there are no major cues for the market as of now. And crushers are reluctant to buy at current levels due to limited crush margins. So there are fewer chances for soybean to make any further gains at this point of time. Guar Complex Guar futures ended higher over the week with Guar seed/gum reported gains of 0.03/1.74 percent over the week. Arrivals in the Physical mandies have fallen to 10K bags. Arrivals are lower in Rajasthan and Haryana while the off take is still on the higher side. According to traders, enquiries for guar gum are still strong enough as major demand is coming from oil and gas sector, which has been showing strong performance over the last couple of months. There are reports that 84 percent of the guar seed crop has already been sold to the extent of 90 percent. The only cause of concern would be as high as 93K tons of stocks are still laid in Exchange warehouses with the intension of delivery. Though the IMD weather report is favorable for higher production in 2011, there are studies that farmers are more likely to go for cotton plantation instead of guar as this has fetched higher remuneration this year. The guar gum /seed ratio has reached 2.86 percent from last weeks 2.82 percent. Outlook for Guar Our view on Guar complex as a whole is positive as there is good off take in the physical markets amid strong demand for guar gum from the overseas players.

cents/Bushel; # INR/100 Kg
Argentina Basis Vs. Flat Prices of Soy Degum $/Ton

150 50 -50 -150 -250

Argentina basis seems to be weaker till arrivals come to an end in May;flat prices may weaken further as US crop is also progessing well

1360 1280 1200 1120 1040 960

Basis 2yr Avg Basis Flat

880 800

Source:way2wealth Research, Bloomberg -350 720 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11

G seed Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol G gum Open High Low Close % Change OI %Chg OI Vol % Chg Vol

Close 3040 3226 3000 3181 0.03 145540 -4.39 1164240 -30.68 Close 8690 9350 8589 9286 1.74 8345 -33.40 48650 -9.85

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

Temperature Levels

Weather Watch
For the country as a whole, the rainfall for the season (June-September) was 102% of its long period average (LPA) of 89 cm. Seasonal rainfall was 112% of its LPA over Northwest India, 104% of its LPA over Central India, 118% of its LPA over south Peninsula and 82% of its LPA over Northeast (NE) India. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole was 84% of LPA in June, 103% of LPA in July, 106% of LPA in August and 113% of LPA in September

Rainfall Activity

Crop Progress

The kharif crop has shown mixed trend of huge fluctuation in terms of production. Particularly edible oils production dropped significantly due less acreage covered under Ground nut and sunflower. Since we are ahead of key Rabi crop plantation season, increased moisture due to season end heavy rains would increase the plantation, however, Rape plantation is still under moisture concern. Groundnut and sunflower, the highest oil yielding seed varieties, were down by 1.2 and 3.3 lakh hectares Y-o-Y. Soybean is marginally lower from the previous year by 0.2 percent. Source: IMD & Agri Ministry for this page.

Rabi(Winter) Sowing Figures 2010-11 (in lakh hector) 28-01-11 Comdty Wheat Tot Cerea G. Nut Sunflower RM Seed Oilseeds 2011 291 370 7.0 5.1 72.4 94.0 2010 282 368 7.97 8.4 65.2 90.8 Abs 8.9 2.2 -1.0 -3.3 6 3.2

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WORLD of COMMODITIES

METALS, ENERGY & AGRI

09 May, 11
th

RESEARCH TEAM
K.N.Rahaman Jigisha Jaini Nisha Harchekar Sejal Jhunjhunwala Abhishek Kothari Krishna Reddy MSR Prasad Ritu Gupta Aditya Agarwal Arun Kumar Deputy Research Head Sr. Research Analyst Sr. Research Analyst Sr. Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Sr. Derivative Analyst Technical Analyst Contact Equities & Commodities Capital Goods & Engineering FMCG, Hotels, Media Auto, Shipping & Metals Banking, NBFC & Financial Services Commodities, Economic Update Commodities Mutual Funds Derivative Strategist & Technicals Technical Analysis - Commodities rahaman@way2wealth.com jigishajaini@way2wealth.com nishaharchekar@way2wealth.com sejal@way2wealth.com abhishekkothari@way2wealth.com krishnareddy@way2wealth.com Prasad.m@way2wealth.com ritugupta@way2wealth.com aditya@way2wealth.com arunKumar @way2wealth.com

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