Human Resource Management

Forecasting on Demand and SupplyTechniques

Term IX

Group 1

TY,BBA
Ashish Nayak 04, Stallone Rodrigues IhsanUllah 07, AbdullRazeq 06.

Forecasting Technique in Human Resource Planning

Determining the human resources required by an organization involves identifying the jobs, skills and knowledge required by those jobs and the performance level of the current workforce. Using this data, you can forecast hiring or reorganizing needs for both the short and long term. Forecasting methods typically includes using past data to predict future staffing. Forecasting Personal Needs Manager should consider several factors when forecasting personnel need. The usual process is to forecast revenue and then, estimate the size of staff required to achieve the sales volume. However in practice the manager will need to consider other factors as well, such as project turnover (resignations or dismissals), decisions to upgrade (or downgrade) products or services, technological changes, and the departments financial resources. Ratio Analysis. Making forecast based on the historical ratio between (1) some causal factor (like sales volume) (2) the number of employees required (for instance number of sales people). Like trend analysis, ratio analysis assumes that productivity remains about the same for instance, that each sales person cant be motivated to produce much more than $500,000 in sales. If sales productivity were to fall or rise, the ratio of sales people would change. A forecast based solely on historical ratios would then no longer be accurate. The scatter plot A Scatter Plot shows graphically how two variables- such as a measure of business activity like sales, and from your staffing levels- are related. if they are, then if you can forecast the level of business activity, you should also be able to estimate your personnel requirements. Using Computers to Forecast Personnel Requirements Computerized forecast enable the manager to include more variables into his or her personnel projections. These variables might include direct, labour hours required to produce one unit of product (a measure of productivity), and three sales projections minimum, maximum and probable- for the product line in question. Based on such input, atypical programme generates average staff levels required to meet product demands, as well as to meet different computerized forecast for direct labour. (such as assembly workers), indirect staff (such as secretes ) and exempt staff ( such as executives).

Demand Forecasting Techniques. There are two approaches to demand forecasting- one is to obtain information about the likely purchase behaviour of the buyer through collecting experts opinion or by conducting interviews with consumers, the other is to use past experience as a guide through a set of statistical techniques. Both these methods rely on varying degrees of judgment. The first method is usually found suitable for short-term forecasting, the latter for long-term forecasting. There are specific techniques which fall under each of these broad methods.

Simple Survey Method: For forecasting the demand for existing product, such survey methods are often employed. In this set of methods, we may undertake the following exercise. 1. Experts Opinion Poll: In this method, the experts on the particular product whose demand is under study are requested to give their opinion or feel about the product. These experts, dealing in the same or similar product, are able to predict the likely sales of a given product in future periods under different conditions based on their experience. If the number of such experts is large and their experience-based reactions are different, then an average-simple or weighted is found to lead to unique forecasts. Sometimes this method is also called the hunch method but it replaces analysis by opinions and it can thus turn out to be highly subjective in nature. 2. Reasoned Opinion-Delphi Technique: Here is an attempt to arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly until the responses appear to converge along a single line. The participants are supplied with responses to previous questions (including seasonings from others in the group by a coordinator or a leader or operator of some sort). Such feedback may result in an expert revising his earlier opinion. This may lead to a narrowing down of the divergent views (of the experts) expressed earlier. The Delphi Techniques, followed by the Greeks earlier, thus generates reasoned opinion in place of unstructured opinion; but this is still a poor proxy for market behaviour of economic variables. 3. Consumers Survey- Complete Enumeration Method: Under this, the forecaster undertakes a complete survey of all consumers whose demand he intends to forecast, once this information is collected, the sales forecasts are obtained by simply adding the probable demands of all consumers. The principle merit of this method is that the forecaster does not introduce any bias or value judgment of his own. He simply records the data and aggregates. But it is a very tedious and cumbersome process; it is not feasible where a large number of consumers are involved. Moreover if the data are wrongly recorded, this method will be totally useless.

4. Consumer Survey-Sample Survey Method: Under this method, the forecaster selects a few consuming units out of the relevant population and then collects data on their probable demands for the product during the forecast period. The total demand of sample units is finally blown up to generate the total demand forecast. Compared to the former survey, this method is less tedious and less costly, and subject to less data error; but the choice of sample is very critical. If the sample is properly chosen, then it will yield dependable results; otherwise there may be sampling error. The sampling error can decrease with every increase in sample size. 5. End-user Method of Consumers Survey: Under this method, the sales of a product are projected through a survey of its endusers. A product is used for final consumption or as an intermediate product in the production of other goods in the domestic market, or it may be exported as well as imported. The demands for final consumption and exports net of imports are estimated through some other forecasting method, and its demand for intermediate use is estimated through a survey of its user industries.

Complex Statistical Methods: We shall now move from simple to complex set of methods of demand forecasting. Such methods are taken usually from statistics. As such, you may be quite familiar with some the statistical tools and techniques, as a part of quantitative methods for business decisions.
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Time series analysis or trend method: Under this method, the time series data on the under forecast are used to fit a trend line or curve either graphically or through statistical method of Least Squares. The trend line is worked out by fitting a trend equation to time series data with the aid of an estimation method. The trend equation could take either a linear or any kind of non-linear form. The trend method outlined above often yields a dependable forecast. The advantage in this method is that it does not require the formal knowledge of economic theory and the market; it only needs the time series data. The only limitation in this method is that it assumes that the past is repeated in future. Barometric Techniques or Lead-Lag indicators method: This consists in discovering a set of series of some variables which exhibit a close association in their movement over a period or time. Generally, this barometric method has been used in some of the developed countries for predicting business cycles situation. For this purpose, some countries construct what are known as diffusion indices by combining the movement of a number of leading series in the economy so that turning points in business activity could be discovered well in advance. Some of the limitations of this method may be noted however. The leading

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indicator method does not tell you anything about the magnitude of the change that can be expected in the lagging series, but only the direction of change.
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Correlation and Regression: These involve the use of econometric methods to determine the nature and degree of association between/among a set of variables. Econometrics, you may recall, is the use of economic theory, statistical analysis and mathematical functions to determine the relationship between a dependent variable (say, sales) and one or more independent variables (like price, income, advertisement etc.). The relationship may be expressed in the form of a demand function, as we have seen earlier. Such relationships, based on past data can be used for forecasting.

Supply Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates. Knowing your staffing needs satisfied only half the staffing equation estimating the likely supply of both inside and outside candidates. Most fir start with the inside candidates. The most important task is to identify which current employees might be qualified for the project openings, for which you have to know the current employees skill sets- their qualifications. Sometimes it is not so oblivious and managers turn to qualification inventories which contains performance records, educational background, and promotability. Manual System and replacement charts: Department managers are owners of smaller firms and may still use several simple manual device to track employee qualifications. A personnel inventory and development record form companies qualification information on each employee. The information includes education, company sponsored courses taken, carrier and development interest, languages desired assignment and skills. Computerized Information System: Companies do not generally track the qualifications of hundreds and thousands of employees manually. Most firms computerised this information, using various packaged software system. Increasingly as we all see they also link these with their other human resource system for instance the employees skills inventory might automatically update based on his or her annual performance appraisal. Forecasting the supply of Outside Candidates: If there wont be enough inside candidates to fill the anticipated openings the employer may want to forecast the availability of outside candidates. Unemployment rates of less than 4% in the U.S in early 2007 signalled to HR managers that they may have to ramp up their recruitment to fill their open position. The planning may also require that you forecast the availability of the potential job candidates in specific occupations such as nurse computer
programmer or teacher.