Climate Change and Ordinary Folk

3 - The Economics of Climate Changes and the Future Introduction:

Few have been able to predict accurately what will physically happen over the planet due to the changing climates and no accuracy can be expected; as the planet itself is organic matter and highly unpredictable and yet, some scientific scenarios have been documented of possibilities and probabilities and this should be enough to ensure that we, the ordinary folk, listen and act. However, it is highly improbable that individuals or small groups can effect change and we look to our governments for guidance and strength and so far, it seems that these governments are failing to effect change of any significance. Many rely upon the United Nations to push for and implement change, but this organisation is weak, often seen as corrupt and competes with itself in order to maintain its status and this is not good enough. All of the multi-nation organisations demand more money to plan and implement changes and to respond to emergencies, whether or not these are climate change related and private non-government organisations (NGOs) also demand our money to respond to emergencies or development programmes or projects. Will it be higher personal taxes that will have be raised to pay for the solutions to climate changes and if so, who will ensure that these monies will be wisely spend with transparent accountancy? Will increasing inflation of basic foods do anything to promote diversification and increased production?
- With many nations in economic decline there will be reticence to financially assist emerging nations with aid to address climate change problems -

Climate Change Economics:

Given that a form of an indirect green tax is likely to be imposed by all nations in order to help defray the costs of solutions to certain climatic changes, it is in the richer industrialised nations that these taxes are likely to be inflicted on populations where the costs of daily living will rise. Food price increases are inevitable as certain growing conditions deteriorate in some areas, the cost of providing clean drinking water (probably recycled many times) will rise and as more energy producers are forced to adopt greener technology; so the cost of power will rise.

(Economies at risk map from The World Bank 2004)

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The map above shows the economies that are at risk and climate changes will exacerbate these risks to a point whereby some countries may become economically failed states and have to rely on international support. Economies are not just at risk because of low agricultural production and low daily incomes, it is often a combination of these together with a low manufacturing base and one that exports little to stabilise its currency reserves. There is also the added risk to a national economy when significant numbers of a population migrate from the rural areas, reducing the long term food and non-food crop production; forcing a government to use valuable foreign currency to buy basic foods that should be produced under a government food security programme. Agriculture and Carbon Emissions: Much of the future economics will be concerned with food production, distribution and processing and as has been seen, many governments and private corporations are now venturing into the tropical and sub-tropical areas to produce food and there will be many opportunities for investors not only in direct production but also in the support industries; developing and producing the mechanics and plants that will aid future food production. Although the Stern Report noted that agricultural production contributed 14% to the greenhouse gas emissions, it is unlikely that this figure will be reduced for many years; especially in the need to produce more food. However, producing the food economically is not enough as there needs to be better ways in which to distribute the raw food materials to the markets and to aid this, the farm to market roads in many developing countries need to be improved. Too often fresh food is wasted because unpaved farm to market roads become impassable during heavy rain periods and food rots by the roadsides. Food Security: There are always debates about the subject of food security for a nation or region and it is too often assumed that this means a given nation or region grows sufficient food for its own needs. This assumption is incorrect as food security means that a nation or region is sufficiently economically able to provide sufficient food for its population and this does not necessarily mean that the area in question grows its own food. A nation or region may be industrialised and able to export its goods in return for income which it uses to purchase the food required. A nation or region may not be able to grow sufficient food crops but can produce other crops as raw or processed material which it exports for cash. As an example a region may be able to grow cotton but not enough food crops. The cotton is sold and food is purchased with part of the income gained and this could equally apply to raw or processed minerals or manufactured goods.
- The vexed question of genetically modified crops must be seriously addressed if the growing number of impoverished are to survive -

Sooner or later the vexed question of using or not using genetically modified crops to help solve the worlds food shortages must be addressed and whilst governments fear adverse reactions from the anti genetically modified crop organisations, there has to be a degree of compromise on all sides of this argument. The economy of China occupies many peoples minds as China continues to grow at a faster rate than any other economies and with China dominating some aspects of other economies. China holds many other nations debts and holds or controls a large percentage of the available raw minerals and this puts the developed nations in the political power of China. The Chinese middle class demand more and better quality food resources, including meat products and the Chinese economy is in a position to allow this; causing shortages elsewhere and driving up prices and it must be remembered that China also has many starving people to feed. The Asian and Oriental economies will suffer whilst China benefits.

The various peoples:

In some countries the annual rate of population expansion (mainly birth to death ratios) is well below what is required to maintain a healthy economy and in other countries the reverse is the case and many countries now are faced with ageing populations, that the younger generations are expected to support through taxation. Without more of the young, economies will suffer from lack of manufacturing; the life blood of modern economies and it has been noted that few of the younger generation know or are learning the practical skills that help to build economies.
- With approximately 9 to 10 billion people by 2050, the number of skilled artisans required to take the world forward is abysmally poor and there is a problematical trend whereby the youth seek only white collar employment 2

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With all of the various races, laws, cultures, religions and climates that shape traditions it is difficult at best to imagine how these various races, cultures and religions can come together to address the problems of changing climates and implement the required solutions. Even though the United Nations is recognised as an umbrella organisation for the world, many areas of the globe prefer to maintain greater contact with regional organisations which understand the variety of laws, cultures and traditions. Throughout the world, there has been less dependence on traditional skills and too many of the youth seek only white collar employment and this is detrimental to economies dependent on being able to provide the basic resources for their population. In developing countries too many of the youth leave the rural areas to seek an easier life in the urban areas and too many of the youth in developed countries seek low level university qualifications that are based on subjects other than the sciences; with the result that the basic infrastructure of populations has fallen behind the needs. The result of the youth leaving the rural areas in developing countries is that food and other crop production is declining and the rural population is ageing at an alarming rate. There is also the trend in developing countries that those that have achieved a certain level of education or skill immediately seek to emigrate developed countries; draining the home country of the valuable skills needed to build a nation.

What may physically happen during climatic changes:

There are bound to be many changes although most will be subtle, occurring over decades and for some, for example the Scandinavian countries, may enjoy much milder weather. Where some areas will find it very difficult to grow food crops, other areas will be able to grow not only more in yields, they may also be able to grow more exotic varieties. Not all changes in climate will be detrimental as in some areas weather patterns may improve sufficiently to enable food crops to be grown and areas that might have insufficient rain to produce sustainable crops may receive higher rainfall. The most dramatic changes will be where rainfall declines not only restricting crop production but also changing the underground water resources. [a] Seawater level will rise as glaciers and the polar ice melts. [b] Desertification will occur in semi-arid areas where temperatures are high and there is less rainfall. [c] Saltwater will encroach into agricultural land in delta areas. [d] Natural deforestation will occur where temperatures are higher and less rain falls*. [e] Land erosion will occur due to soil drying out and breaking up. This may be washed away by heavy rains or blown away by strong winds. Where there are excessive amounts of heavy rainfall, riverbanks may crumble and the potential of upland landslides will increase. [f] Spreading liquefaction will occur where there are light coastal soils and where the sea encroaches further inland. [g] Coastal erosion will occur where the sea level rises and wash out or undercut light soils. [h] Some areas will experience a greater number of short term droughts whilst others will experience more long term droughts [i] Flash floods after prolonged periods of heavy rain occur and where authorities have not made sufficient provision for flood water dispersal or where residential areas have been allowed on low lying land. [j] Increased flooding in delta areas where upland soil erosion causes heavy siltation of rivers and storm water cannot flow freely to the sea. [k] Basic food production will decline in some areas and increase in other areas, depending on the severity of climate change. Loss of safe drinking water where underground water resources and natural springs dry up. [l] [m] Species of flora and fauna will migrate away from the equatorial areas. Some trees will not tolerate high temperatures and will die off, leaving forest gaps where the soil * temperature will rise, adding further stress. Whether or not there will be more earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or tsunamis is not known, although the possibility of these cannot be ignored.
What is certain is that changing climates will be the cause of the migration of a lot of people, many because of the economic problems that the changes cause and others because they have no choice due to the severity of some of the changes. Where will they go and the probable answer will be to the urban
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areas and these will come under great stress, especially in the provision of public services; some of which may collapse with forethought. The decision to migrate because of climate changes will set off a ripple effect that in some cases will lead to violence between groups of people and this will also be the same for those that are displaced because of climate changes. Those that are displaced should fare better than those that decide to migrate voluntarily, but the same effects will be noted. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] Migrants and displaced people will largely resettle in existing urban areas. Migrants and displaced people will compete for basic resources with host populations. Migrants and/or displaced people will form their own groups within resettlement areas to protect themselves from host groups. These groups (migrant & host) (migrant against migrant) will compete with each other for basic resources. Civil conflict will occur between groups over the supply and price of basic resources. Civil authorities will have to increase in size in order to control the growing number of civil conflict outbreaks. There may be an escalation in violence and in the implements used in civil conflict. Employment opportunity. (availability) Potable water. (availability, quality and price) Basic foods. (availability, quality and price) Health services. (availability and cost) Education services. (availability and cost) Land rights. Tribal intolerances. Religious intolerances. Racial intolerances. Right of access to legal services, credit and governance.

The resources that will be competed for will be basic:

Added to the tangle of conflict will be:

One result of civil conflict between groups may be that greater parts of a national population may become more nomadic in their search for an appropriate environment in which to settle and the need for employment may add to these nomadic groups; hoping to find employment in developing industrial or agricultural areas.

Map A

One result of the conflict potential will be that there will be a greater reliance on the informal economy, where the exchange of cash for goods or services will be hidden from the national revenue authorities and
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thus, governments will be unable to collect sufficient direct taxes and may decide to increase indirect taxation in order to raise revenue and this will be inflationary. One of the points that is generally overlooked is that the African continent is a very important area of the world, given that its potential as a major food producer is only now being realised, it contains a significant percentage of the worlds minerals and could be a provider a large amounts of solar energy and is thought to be the next area of high economical growth, although the venture capital for the potential growth will not come from Africa; unless African governments start to take a larger share of the mineral wealth that is being created.

Map B

(Map B - Population density 2009)

The density of a population in developing countries is of interest to infrastructure and public services planners and often these are put under great stress in the low income urban areas and governments become concerned about constantly having to access funding requirements and this is always a reactive process. In developed nations, governments have greater control over residential planning and thus can proactively control where residential zones are constructed and thus, the infrastructure required to service these zones can be put in place. It is a governments responsibility to provide potable water, education, health services, sanitation etc and where informal residential zones emerge haphazardly; this is extremely difficult to plan for.

Map C

(Map C - Nett migration 2009)

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The map A provides a reminder of the global climates as they are now and can be compared with three maps B C & D that denote the global population as in 2009, showing the population densities per nation followed by the net migration of populations, followed by what is thought to be the future trend of migrants and both maps concerned with migration refer to economic and conflict migrants and without knowing where climate changes will have the earliest effects, it is difficult to judge what the trends of migration will be, say in 2050. With the knowledge that climate change scientists have it is probable that guesses could be made, but in the light of recent events, few climate change scientists will wish to make these predictions. Reference to the maps in Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 2 it may be possible for some researchers to compare a mixture of maps to make certain predictions as to population movements but few may be accurate.

Map D

(Map D - Migration trends 2009)

Of all the problems associated with economic or climate change migrants is the great concerns of the inhabitants of many European countries; as more and more migrants from developing and eastern bloc countries are seeking refuge in the richer European states. This is not necessarily to show any racial biases; it is often the sheer number of people that now want to participate in what they believe to be a more stable society from their original homeland and also to take advantage of the many benefits to be found in the host nations. The intricacies of European laws does not allow member nations to implement stronger border controls and as many claim to have escaped oppressive regimes, the human rights laws of Europe give bias to those that wish to enter the European Union. Many are saying that enough is enough and the present situation must be changed and it is probable that some form of racial conflict is growing as competition for resources increases.
- There is no particular racial antagonism towards migrants coming to Europe; it is that many people think that enough is enough and want greater border controls to limit those who wish to settle in Europe -

Participating in Adaption to Changing Climates:

Other than changing personal habits, there is little that individuals can do, though if enough individuals participated some improvements would be noted. What individuals can do is vote and there are sufficient organisations or pressure groups available through which individuals can find a voice, although some of the pressure groups may be a little radical for some tastes. It is only governments acting with other governments that can effect change, though it only takes a few who refuse to participate to spoil plans. With the desire by governments to reduce emissions from vehicles powered by carbon fuels to meet international targets the vogue for electric cars is beginning to lift off and yet, it must be asked how
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governments are intending to produce the electricity required without adding to carbon emissions. Since the nuclear reactor problem in Japan, some governments have cut back or cancelled this clean source of energy production and given that the batteries required are often as expensive as the car they drive, the question must be asked also, where are the new batteries that are required for this venture and where also are the outlets to allow drivers of electric vehicles more than a hundred miles. Participating in this venture seems to be expensive for ordinary folk. It could be possible that the fuel presently used to power motor vehicles could be used to create the electricity to drive future vehicles, possibly reducing the carbon output; but this assumes that the carbon fuels are infinite. With the high cost of public transport most folk will opt for their carbon fuel cars together with the freedom of choice and movement that these give. It would be possible for governments to subsidise public transport, but this does not make economical sense just to aid a decrease in carbon emissions. Higher taxes on aviation fuel would make some difference though this would decrease the number of tourists both in and out and affect economies in other ways. Everyday Technology and Climate Change: Other than the expected technology that the scientists are using to track and predict the changes in climate, everyday technology will play an important role during an increased period of changing climates. As has been seen in several civil conflict outbreaks, the simple use of the internet and mobile telephone technology has allowed immediate events to become worldwide knowledge and although this has its uses, it also has its downsides. It may be that if there are times of panic during a particular bad period of climate change, the government authorities may seek to control the use of these simple technologies; first ensuring that they have adequate means of communicating for themselves. Those who may be impoverished or seeking improved living conditions will inevitably gain some access to the new technologies, allowing them to find out where new opportunities arise; adding to internal migration that the state cannot control and in the future it is highly probable that there will be greater control of internal migration and where there are integrated states such as the European Union, these controls will cause conflict of opportunity and the legalities will be severely tested. With the rapid spread of broadband and mobile telephone access into more remote areas, up to the minute reports can be made and the networks may well be used by the rural folk when they seek seasonal or out-of-season employment possibly causing large numbers of employment seekers to flood areas where opportunities may exist. Of some concern to wholesale food purchasers must be the ease at which the international stock markets manipulate the price of basic food resources and how it is possible to physically and electronically hoard foods that may be in short supply and this can only be something that the governments can put a stop to, though they would have to act in unison. The same affects many other commodities that manufacturers depend upon for producing the goods that nations require to earn the currencies that are needed to purchase the basic foods. Urban Conflict:

Migrants cause jealousy and conflict over the availability and cost of basic resources and compete for employment opportunity to generate the cash needed to purchase basics and civil conflict is bound to increase and in the longer term, these conflicts may cause greater problems than terrorism. There is rising concern about the internal migrants that flock to the large cities and that eventually end up living in the slums and this has become a major concern for some governments. Other than through indirect taxation the slum dwellers contribute no financial benefit to a government and often, they are dependent on government social benefits, where these exist. Governments will be tempted to repatriate the slum dwellers from whence they came and in order to achieve this, they will have to employ very tough methods and this will cause conflict, especially within the slum areas and possibly in areas where the slum dwellers are moved to. Hence, in the future, there may be cases made for invoking a need for internal passports or regional work permits, restricting the right to move within a nations boundaries, also giving police authoritys greater control of populations.

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There is a possibility that large cities may become divided as slum and ghetto areas increase and the civil authorities may have to spend more resources in keeping the richer city areas clear of slum or ghetto dwellers. Other than occasional incursions by police and other civil authority staff and a few activities by Non-Government-Organisations (NGOs), the slum areas are left alone and seem to manage to survive despite the growing number of migrants that are attracted to large cities and end up in the ghettos and slums. They have become very clannish and often a single slum is predominantly made up migrants from the same region, maintaining languages, customs and practices that they have brought with them; although this is not a phenomenon only of slums and ghettos, as many middle class communities maintain ethnic roots. One of the major problems regarding many of the slum areas is that they have evolved on waste ground that has been set aside because it may be a flood plain or potential marshland and environmentally, it is important that these areas remain open to absorb the large amounts of run-off of storm water. The very existence of dwellings spreading onto flood plains or marshes increases the risk of serious flooding.

Conclusion:
There is no doubt that there will be dramatic natural events due partially or wholly to climate changes. There can also be no doubt that there are and will be more climatic changes, but, how permanent these changes may be is open to question and, as any changes will occur slowly over decades most people may not even notice for many years that changes are occurring around them. This is one of the biggest problems in this changing world; that people will not notice and will become immune to the constant warnings of dire consequences and it is not until personal realisation of a changing scenario that people will take notice.
- Regardless of any changing climates caused by man, the earth continues to change naturally and in the past the human race has adapted -

It is also likely that should more dilemmas such as have happened too often in the Horn of Africa occur that ordinary folk will become immune to these tragedies that unfold and famines and natural emergencies will take more casualties and this is to be expected. It may come to the point that some of these events occur often and the ordinary folk will be hardened to these and say that these are the natural consequences of the problems that arise and get on with their life. Where next, China, India, central southern Africa?

What is also clear is that the vast majority of migrants at this time are economic migrants, moving probably from low income or impoverished areas to seek better fortune in areas that are developed and provide greater employment opportunity. There are many millions that migrate internally or cross borders annually of which the majority are the youth and these will increase gradually as [a] economic instabilities cause population movement and [b], by those that voluntarily migrate because of changing climatic conditions in their home area. As harsher climatic changes occur, the migrants will be augmented by displaced people.
- There is no doubt that everyone on the planet will be affected by climate changes; be it directly or indirectly and without the ability to adapt, many will suffer the consequences -

There are many maps available which would help anyone to see what is envisaged by the climate change scientists but trying to make sense of these and to get an overall opinion is at best difficult. Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 1 and 2 showed a few of these maps and it is probable that the United States of Americas Department of Agriculture maps are a very good place to start.
- One of the most worrying aspects in the long term is the potential for violence in civil conflict due in part to the root cause of climatic changes -

Whilst there is little co-ordination between governments and whilst some countries continue the push to increase their industrial output, mostly using carbon fuels, there is unlikely to be any agreement on how to proceed towards adapting to climate changes.

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There are other topics that cold spin-off from this study; such as what to do about the ageing populations or whether or not it is necessary to spend vast resources to improve sea defences and many others potential problems that it is probable that future generations will have to decide although this generation should start to consider the potential moral and physical problems that future generations will face.

Core Studies
August 2011

Acknowledgements: Stern Revue World Bank (Economies AT Risk map) CIA World Factbook United States of America - Department of Agriculture