Environment, Forced Migration & Social Vulnerability International Conference 9-11 October 2008 Bonn, Germany www.efmsv2008.

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ECONOMIC POLICIES AND DESIGN STRATEGIES RELATED TO MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATIC CHANGES IN ARGENTINA. THEIR IMPORTANCE IN THE DETERMINATION OF MIGRATION SCENARIES
Ana M. Fernandez EQUIZA 1. Professor, RRII, Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina
1

1.

A BRIEF CHARACTERIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARGENTINA

At present already verified (SADS 2007): An average increase in temperature of 1 C in Argentine territory during the last century. Increased average annual rainfall in most parts of the country, especially in north-west and west peripheral to the Wet Pampa. Increased frequency of extreme rainfall in central and eastern parts of the country. Increased temperature in Patagonia and Cuyo with receding glaciers. Increased flow of rivers and frequency of flooding throughout the country except the rivers of mountain origin of San Juan, Mendoza and Comahue.

The most notable phenomena caused by Climate Change, projected for the period 2020/2040, would be ( Barros:2006): Increased frequency of heavy rainfall and floods. Particularly, it would worsen the hydroclimatic extreme events in Northwest, Northeast Littoral and Central regions of the country, while in the metropolitan area, floods would have a strong incidence. Continuity in the retreat of glaciers. Affectation of the Maritime Littoral and the coast of the Ro de La Plata by rising sea levels.

From the analysis of various regions (see Fig. 1) are displayed the following trends:

Figure 1

1.1

Northwestern

It is likely that the impacts of rising temperature would intensify, causing water stress and greater droughts. The occurrence of relatively high temperatures during winter can have devastating effects on pastures and winter crops, because they would take place in the same period as frosts. (e.g.: to cotton crop). 1.2 Northeast

Rains have increased by an average of 20% over the past 40 years and torrential rains (about 150 millimeters) became 5 to 7 times more frequent between 1950 and 2000. However, the rise in temperature throughout the basin of the Ro de La Plata could reduce the flow of rivers Paran, Paraguay and Uruguay. This would entail losses in hydropower, navigation problems, supply difficulties in some areas, and in some places, more pollution. 1.3 Littoral and metropolitan areas

During the twentieth century, at the mouth of the Ro de La Plata, the sea grew 17 centimeters, and it is estimated that over this century it could rise another 50 centimetres. It is a dangerous scenario, because is happening a winds rotation process in the river: they have turned from the east to the northeast, and will blow increasingly from the southeast. This means that there is going to be a boost in the frequency and intensity of the southerly storms, which equates to more recurrent and widespread flooding. 1.4 Pampa

In this region the rains have increased by an average of 20% over the past 40 years. The same goes with temperatures. With increases higher than 1 C, it is estimated that, as a result, the Pampas region will begin to reduce its yield of corn. Wheat also will suffer from increases of 2 C in minimum temperatures. Soybeans, however, will tolerate a rise of 3 C even with improved yield. The most benefited region will be the southern Pampas, because of temperature and rainfall, while the corn kernel in the north, closer to the Ro de La Plata, could be affected by snow, hail, heat waves and heavy rains.

1.5

Patagonia

In Patagonia the decrease of the ice in the mountains will have a negative impact on the provision of irrigation water to areas outside the Cordillera and in the increasing of the likelihood of biomass fires, under drought conditions. Particularly considering a West Region (which includes the strip of land covering the area of the mountain range known as Cuyo, Northern Patagonia and Patagonia Regions, according to the Federal Council of Environment, see Fig. 1), it is estimated that major losses will occur by decreased snowfall in the Andes, from Cuyo to the Northern Patagonia, which could generate lower flows in rivers. In this last region, also called Comahue, the mentioned trend does not mean that heavy rainfall in short periods of time can not generate some flooding. In 2006 and after a prolonged drought, the Neuquen River had its most powerful flood in over 100 years. According to the Basin Authority (ICA), 270 millimetres of rain fell in a few hours so it was not the volume but the intensity of the precipitation what gave to the river flow a level close to the maximum that can withstand the Portezuelo Grande dam (Belvis 2008). Of the dams of Comahue derives 15% of the electricity produced in the country. In the Cuyo region there will be increasing problems. There is already a known water deficit (600 mm. per year), so if the snow diminishes Mendoza and San Juan will have to change the way they work and even manage more carefully their water resources. This is critical because the entire economies of Mendoza and San Juan are based on the oasis of rivers, and also because, if the temperature continues rising, the water demand will be higher.

2.

MAIN FEATURES OF ECONOMIC POLICY IN ARGENTINA.

Over the past three decades, among the structural characteristics of Argentina's economy are highlighted the financial and trade opening and a sustained process of state deregulation of the economy. These features were imposed during the de facto government (1976-1983) and deepened during the nineties. There is a free mobility of capital, goods and people and the regulatory framework for such flows remains extremely accessible. In 2002 and in response to the great crisis in the late 2001, were put in practice policies that represent ruptures and continuities to the previous ones but which do not alter structurally the Argentine economy. Among the ruptures, it has been very important the abandonment of the Convertibility Plan and some regulatory measures, although the degree of openness and integration into the global market have stayed in a similar level. The model of international productive specialization is heavily based on primary export activities. The anti-industrial bias of the dictatorship and the governments of the nineties that privileged an exchange rate policy of appreciation of the peso and indiscriminate opening, contributed to this. The primary sector (particularly the segment of large-scale companies) managed to survive thanks to the comparative advantage of relative higher productivity and the differential income of the countrys fertile lands, and also because of the great availability of natural resources. Simultaneously, sector promotion regimes (such as mining and fishing), the privatization of state-owned enterprises (oil, gas and public services) and strong incentives to foreign investment helped to deepen the neoliberal economic model. The results illustrate a profound transnationalization, primarization and concentration of the economy, which succeeded in showing growing economic indicators during 1990 and 1995 (GDP reached a maximum of 8%), paradoxically accompanied by a sharp rise in unemployment (from 6 to 16% of the People Economically Active), the falling of real wages and the impoverishment of the population with a rising inequality and the falling of large segments of the population below the indigence line.

The 2001 crisis and the strong popular mobilization, produce a change of direction at least in some aspects. Since the devaluation of 2002 it is verified a sustained growth and recovery of all economic activities including industry. However the matrix of foreign trade continues to be strongly dominated by the specialization in the export of some comoditties (Soybean and Oil). In this general context, the most dynamic activities are characterised by an employment-product elasticity less than that observed in the activities displaced. These activities are those traditionally linked to the domestic market or those that still has export potential, but are being replaced by more dynamic ones. For example, the production of cereals, milk and meat are retreating because the advance of Soybean monocultures or are being threatened by other uses aimed at producing agrofuels. In Uruguay is happening a similar process with the expansion of eucalyptus monocultures -oriented to the supply of the transnational pulp mills (e.g.: Botnia in Fray Bentos, on the banks of the Uruguay River). The devaluation, precondition for the recovery of the argentinean industrial activity and for the increased employment, dramatically strengthen the benefits of traditional industries with comparative advantages. Given the condition of goods-wage of the exported goods (or their status as products that compete with the food production for the use of resources), it comes to light an inter-industrial struggle in the country, with a distributive logic and political and ideological roots. Even if regulatory measures aimed at maintaining a competitive exchange rate and undock international prices from domestic prices, do not hinder the achievement of higher profitability levels than those obtained in moments of appreciation of the local currency and low regulation, the dispute is very intense and test the institutional quality. Deregulation means, for example, the expansion of the agricultural frontier over fragile ecosystems, high socio-environmental impacts (e.g.: displacement of peasants) and a significant increase in poverty as a consequence of the rising cost of food and a loss of real wages. The need for an effective regulation to prevent the consequences of highly profitable but unsustainable practices, challenge a state weakened by a pro-market inertia present for several decades. The same state that self-limited its capacity to intervene is now being questioned by growing environmental conflicts that demand an active role in defending the common good and invite to re-discuss development models. At the root of all neo-liberal policies that are the continuities of the model there is the simplistic definition of development as capacity to attract foreign capital. Established by the dictatorship with the acritical adoption of the monetary approach to balance of payments, it has contributed to the confusion of means with ends, blurring strategic objectives such as social inclusion and equity and oversizing tools such as openness, flexibility, and market reforms for the sake of the access to globalization, viewed as a "unique and inexorable before which you can only get in or perish". The evidences of the environmental and social results of the policies inspired by this hegemonic vision for almost three decades have generated its review at the beginning of the new century. However, and even though there have been major changes in the economic policy, these do not involve structural changes. The deepening of the economic concentration, the imperfection of markets, the denationalization and the degree of vulnerability to the speculative action that raises the price of comoditties on international markets while reinforcing the unsustainable use of nature, defy the country governance.

3.

SOME RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ECONOMIC POLICIES

Faced with a situation in which current impacts have been identified and the scenarios have been developed, how the existing economic policy contributes to mitigation and adaptation? In general and as some scholars have pointed out repeatedly, Argentina suffers the lack of a policy aimed at generating genuine and sufficient information to make appropriate forecasts regarding existing and potential problems caused by climate change.

Osvaldo Canziani, co-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group II, believes that the monitoring of water resources is essential because water availability varies with climate change: there are places with long periods of intense drought, and the water supply is one of the grave Argentinean problems. The resource is wasted when the fresh water run to the sea without restraint. "We do not retain water; also whenever we export food, we took water out of the country. One tonne of wheat is equivalent to a thousand tons of water" (Diario Ciudadano 2008). On one hand, the country lacks a consistent public policy aimed at an evaluation systematic and thorough of the environmental and economic impacts of climate change. Similarly, economic policies lack in general an assessment of their impacts in the medium and long term and in particular with regard to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. As an example, here are some problematic topics from different regions. 3.1 Cuyo

In the economy of this region, the wine production stands out, which depends on irrigation. And also the tourism, due to the natural attractions and the winter sports centres. Both are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The first because changes in temperature could degrade the quality of wines produced, particularly the Malbec, outstanding product of the region. The second because the decrease in precipitation could affect ski centres like Las Leas and Los Penitentes. But the threats of climate change are strengthened thanks to those resulting from the impacts of large mining, a highly controversial activity that has grown since the nineties under a special national tax regime aimed at attracting foreign investments. There are mega-enterprises like Veladero (already under way) and Pascua Lama (binational Argentine-Chilean under construction), owned by Canadian companies, which perform an open-pit extraction of gold, silver and copper with methods based on the intensive use of water and cyanide. These mining ventures have generated a high social unrest, particularly because they affect the quantity and quality of water available, causing deterioration in the quality of life of the population, in their habitat and in their pre-existing economic activities. As an example, it is possible to look to the town of Jachal where the inhabitants suffer the decline and pollution in the water supply, as well as increased disease, the exodus of the population, the devaluation of their farms and consequent difficulties in obtaining loans for small producers. The neighbours argue that the Veladero mine is affecting glaciers on the Cordillera that represent an important fresh water reservoir because the area has a rainfall in the order of 200 mm. per year what makes it dependant on water from melting for supplying both residential and productive uses. As these activities are highly conditioned by the availability of water, the evidences of the impacts of mining enterprises makes it deeply inappropriate to continue with the promotion of mining. In this way, although there are national amendment drafts to the regimes which support the promotion of mining, it seems unlikely in the short term a substantial change in them. At the provincial level are displayed two different strategies. The San Juan province clearly introduced pro-mining policies, being the governor Gioja one of the main promoters of this activity. By contrast, in Mendoza opencast mining was banned by law (provincial law 7722). In San Juan, Csar Ambrosio Gioja, brother of the governor and chairman of the Mining committee of the National Senate, while owner of a company that supplies mining companies in his province, took the promotion of mining activity. By contrast, in Mendoza are being recovered activities linked to tourism and agro-industry. The conflict shows not only two different economic strategies but two different conceptions of development. One linked to seize opportunities for foreign investment to exploit resources "untapped" and another that sees the Cordillera as valuable in itself and compatible with uses that promote its

conservation. The social movements against mining argue for example that "Water is worth more than gold. Without water there is no life. Without life there is no development". Just as climate change will aggravate the situation, since it is anticipated a decrease in the amount of water available in that area by the loss of rainfall and the least amount of water from melting, the kind of economic policy that prevails may accentuate or mitigate these impacts. A strategy of adaptation to climate change that will allow to retain the population in the area requires a more careful management of water resources, the care of sources in the high mountains and a rational distribution and utilization that give priority to its domestic, agricultural, agribusiness and tourism related uses, activities that are the livelihood of the majority population in the region. 3.1.1 Northwest and Northeast

In both regions the expected effects of climate change are enhanced by economic policies that determine the advance of the agricultural frontier over fragile ecosystems. The logging of forests contributes to desertification, the aggravation of floods and in some areas, the increased occurrence of phenomena such as mud flows. Beyond the good performance of some production in the short term, such as record soybean crops, this situation could exemplify in the long run what Daly called "non-economic growth" (Daly 2007). In other words, growth in terms of GDP and exports can conceal less positive indicators such as population displacement, loss of biodiversity, deterioration of soil, disguised export of water and nutrients; that is to say, a deficit in the loading capacity, an use in a unsustainable way of the Argentine territory as an environmental space of other countries (Montibelher Filho 2004). The Secretary of Environment of Argentina, Romina Picolotti has recognized that "the monoculture of soybeans produces a serious environmental damage", listing among other the following damages: the deforestation of 2 million hectares since 2001, a high rate of logging which in some areas of the country is 14 times the rate of global deforestation, the emission of greenhouse gases and a large expulsion of local residents (Parlamentario.com 2008). However, this recognition appears belatedly and without even taking substantive steps to prevent further damage. However, this recognition appears belatedly and without even taking substantive steps to prevent further damage. Although the advance of the soybean has been taking place for more than one decade, it has intensified during the last years thanks to the conjunction of several factors that have built up a high profitability: the use of transgenic seed and tillage techniques, the devaluation, a sustained global demand and the positive evolution of international prices. The introduction of export taxes since 2002 has sought both a source of fiscal resources as an intervention that decouples the international prices from the domestic prices of food. Although the soybean is not in the basic basket of the Argentineans, it advances over food production, and this, in addition, enjoys a propitious conjuncture for exports what makes it more expensive. In 2008 the government implemented a raise in export taxes and linked these to international prices, in an answer to the sharp rise of comoditties prices, trying to contain its impact on domestic prices, to avoid the displacement of other productive activities and to discourage the inclusion of marginal lands with poor productivity but now profitable in contexts of extraordinary prices. However, these redistributive measures sparked an intense social conflict. The traditional sectors with the support of political opponents and middle-class groups had 100 days of roadblocks, lockouts, shortage of cities and strong rural protests. The difficulties of some sectors of the population to settle political conflicts within the institutions are a strong restriction to development, which questions the ability to create a regulation that prioritizes community-based long-term goals to the specific aims of short-term players. The integration into the global market under the current international context energizes some sectors and activities associated with the appropriation and exploitation in the short-term of the loading capacity of the territory. In this way, the environmental degradation and population displacement could worsen due to intensified competition for land generated by the growing demand of agrofuels.

Paradoxically, the decline in emissions that could be accounted for by the developed countries due to the replacement of fossil fuels with agrofuels, would decrease sinks in the countries of Latin America, because the advance of the agricultural frontier deeply affects areas of mountains, forests and jungles. The loss of biodiversity and the displacement of native rural population are the short-term consequences. In the medium term this could cause the depletion and degradation of lands, due to the intensive crop production in zones of low agro-ecological aptitude. The hike in international prices, partly explained by the actions of speculative capital on the trade of comoditties, determines in terms of profitability the feasibility of production in areas previously considered marginal and boosts the process of expansion over these. The displaced population in this process could hardly return to their previous way of life because their environment is substantially modified. In Argentina, this means the movement of people into middle cities and also, although no longer first, to large urban areas. 3.1.2 Metropolitan Area

In the metropolitan area can be singled out, as an example, real estate speculation and privatization of public services as negative factors for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The strong dynamism of the speculative real estate activities tends to develop some areas and marginalize others, generally rising the price of land and the value of buildings, particularly in areas with the highest environmental quality. This deepens the location of the sectors with fewer resources in an environmentally less apt periphery. Large numbers of people are settled in areas highly vulnerable to floods, exposed to pollutants and/or poorly equipped with public services. This reality is reflected in frequent local conflicts. Climate change will impact in the metropolitan areas of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe with major changes in precipitation and especially in the increased frequency of extreme weather events. In Buenos Aires it is possible to forecast the impacts of the increase of the sea level and the greater frequency and intensity of the southerly storms. Therefore it is expected that the current situation is going to get worse. A strategy for adapting to climate change based on a proper and responsible management of the territory would imply a system that takes into account these scenarios. This requires an effective regulation of the real estate business so as to minimize the occupation of flood areas, the targeting of investments so as to improve current conditions and the encouraging of future developments in more suitable areas. In the absence of a proper land use planning that takes into account the likely scenarios of climate change and population dynamics, the occupation of inappropriate areas increase vulnerability. A second example is the continuity in the metropolitan area of a model of waste management based on privatized large-scale Landfills. This policy, presented as a breakthrough regarding the option of open pit landfills, conceals a contradictory form of management with objectives of environmental quality.

4.

POPULATION MOVEMENTS

Since the decade of the 50s, Argentina was characterized by receiving immigrants from neighbouring countries and by internal migration involving population movements from the countryside or small towns to large urban areas linked to industrial growth. But during the nineties significant changes took place. The intermediate cities became more important as a destination for internal migration and the migrations from neighbouring countries continued but now under greater hostility due to an increased competition for jobs in the context of high unemployment. The foreign population is a small percentage, 4.2%, of the total population (2.5% from neighbouring countries and 1.7% from non-bordering countries) (INDEC 2001).

The emigration dynamic, though not new, stands out in the mid-70, strongly marked by political exile and has accelerated in the early twenty-first century mainly because of economic motives. After the 2001 crisis, this dynamic intensifies showing a negative native net migration of 193,030 people between 2000 to 2003 (Novick 2007). The main destinations are the U.S. and Europe, especially Spain. The recovery of the economic activity and employment produced in recent years, although far from being consolidated and above all, that does not imply a substantial decrease in poverty, has reduced the trend of emigration.However, in more severe scenarios of climate change impacts, it could happen an increase in population displacement by environmental causes, both internally and externally. Various sectors could be displaced in the country: Native people by destruction of their habitat due to the advancement of the agricultural frontier. Farmers (traditional crops, livestock, dairy, bee-keeping) by the advancement of soybean monocultures. People from the Cordillera region by the consequences of large mining which affects water resources and prevents its availability for other uses. People from areas affected by desertification or increased flooding. Unemployed or impoverished people due to the expansion of primary export activities with less product-employment elasticity in their places of residence than those activities being shifted.

The outward displacements could increase if living conditions worsen in areas of domestic attraction, and particularly if this is combined with economic policies of regressive distribution, a limited capacity to generate employment and/or with the deterioration of the institutional situation.

5.

CONCLUSIONS

The uses of the territory express a complex system of interrelationships of cultural, political, economic and environmental processes, at different scales from the global thing to the local. The attraction of both domestic and foreign capital towards export primary activities such as mining or soybean culture can be considered as the result of a search for an appropriation of an environmental differential income, since the productive factor is not confined to land but to the loading capacity of ecosystems on which land is a part. It is not limited to what land can give in terms of productivity but what it can receive in terms of contamination. The basis for this differential income would not be defined only by physical differences nor based on the mere ownership, but also in "institutional" factors like economic and environmental regulations. That is, income is not given only by physical conditions but is built on a context of relationships and in way of organizing the international economy that comes from hegemonic development models. Recognizing this complexity and taking into account the impacts of climate change already observed in Argentina, the available forecasts, the characterization of the economy and the migratory trends over the past thirty years, it is possible to conclude that current economic policies have weaknesses in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. This is basically because it promotes certain uses of the territory that causes the destruction of habitats and the progress of activities with minor capacity to generate employment. The displacement of people in search of better living conditions occurs mainly within the country, and secondarily outwards. But if, as the prospective show, reception areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, without a foresighted territorial ordering it can not be avoid the loss of quality of life in these areas which would make difficult receiving or maintaining population. The worsening conditions of habitat or the rising costs of access to some basic services, could force the decision to emigrate, especially if economic policy does not provide opportunities for employability that encourages an expectation of improving living conditions.

It is possible to identify some key elements of economic policy to improve strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change and maintain the migratory scenarios within the current parameters: The recovery of an adequate government regulatory capacity, increasing the autonomy from interest groups, domestic and foreign. To do so, though instrumental, it is imperative to develop a proper system for reporting and monitoring. The transformation of the international integration pattern and the characteristics of the productive specialization, that allows a reduction on the dependency on foreign currency generated from the export of loading capacity and those uses that enhance the vulnerability to climate change. The improvement of institutional capacity and the democratic strengthening that enables an effective management of a project guided by strategic objectives of general interest. The regulation of the uses of land, guidance on investment and public/private partnership to strengthen sustainable productive activities and improve the living conditions of the population in the areas of lesser vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.

6.

REFERENCES

Barros, V. (2006): Cambio Climtico em Argentina. Paper for the AAERA Conferences and Meetings on Renewable Energy in Latin America. <http://www.asades.org.ar/~averma/ conferenciasasades06/barros.pdf>, 9 August 2007. Belvis, M. (2008): Otro ao con los ros al servicio de la energa. In: Diario Ro Negro on line. <http://www.rionegro.com.ar/diario/2008/06/01/20086r01f10.php>, 10 June 2008. Daly, H. (2007): La mana por el crecimiento. <http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/economistas /Daly.htm>, 25 March 2007. Diario Ciudadano (2008): Piden que se estudien los recursos hdricos. <http://www.ciudadanodiario.com.ar/2008/06/22/nota54189.html>, 25 June 2008. Fernndez Equiza, A. (2007): Analise Interdisciplinar da valorao da Natureza nos Conflitos Ambientais. Ph.D. dissertation. Federal University of Santa Catarina. Center of Philosophy and Human Sciences. <http://www.tede.ufsc.br/teses/PICH0062-T.pdf>. Montibelher Filho, G. (2004): O mito do desenvolvimento sustentvel. Meio ambiente e custos sociais no moderno sistema produtor de mercadorias. Editora da USFC, Florianpolis. Novick, S. (dir.) (2007): Sur-Norte. Estudios sobre la emigracin reciente de argentinos. Catlogos, Buenos Aires. Parlamentario.com (2008): Picolotti resalt el "grave" impacto ambiental que produce la expansin de la soja. <http://www.parlamentario.com/noticia-15649.html>, 27 June 2008. SADS (2007): 2 Comunicacin de la Repblica Argentina a las Partes de la Convencin Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climtico. <http://www.ambiente.gov.ar>, 1 June 2007.