Plainpackaging oftobaccoproducts: areviewofthe evidence

Proposed design of plain cigarette packaging. Source: Commonwealth of Australia (2010). Public consultation on plain packaging of tobacco products.

PreparedbyQuitVictoria,CancerCouncilVictoria,May2011
1

TableofContents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Executivesummary .........................................................................................................................3 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................5 Packaginginthemarketingmix ......................................................................................................6 Recenttrendsincigarettepackaging..............................................................................................8 Resultsofresearchintotheeffectsofplainpackaging ................................................................11 5.1Historyofinternationalresearchonplainpackaging .................................................................11 5.2Summaryofresultsofresearchbytheme..................................................................................13 5.2.1Effectsofplainpackagingoneffectivenessofhealthwarnings ..........................................13 5.2.2Effectsofplainpackagingonperceptionsofharmfulness ..................................................13 5.2.3Effectsofplainpackagingonappealofproduct..................................................................13 5.2.4Combinedeffectofplainpackagingandhealthwarnings...................................................15 6. Expertresponsestotheproposalforplainpackaging..................................................................16 6.1Healthsectorresponsetoproposedlegislation .........................................................................16 6.2Financialmarketresponse ..........................................................................................................16 6.3Tobaccoindustryresponse .........................................................................................................17 7. Researchrelevanttomajorindustryargumentsagainstplainpackaging ....................................19 7.1Wontwork .................................................................................................................................19 7.2Willbedifficultforretailers ........................................................................................................21 7.3Representsanacquisitionofintellectualproperty.....................................................................21 7.4Hasbeenconsideredandtheideaabandonedinothercountries.............................................22 7.5Willreducepriceandcompetitioninthetobaccomarket .........................................................23 7.6Willfacilitateillicittrade .............................................................................................................24 References ............................................................................................................................................28

1. Executive summary
Thispaperpresentsthefindingsofresearchovertwodecadesandacrossfivecountriesonthetopic ofplainpackaging.Itincludestheresultsof24publishedexperimentalstudieswhichhaveexamined thelikelyimpactofplainpackagingonyoungpeopleandcurrentsmokers(Section5)i .Italso summarisestheresultsofresearchpapersthatanalyseindustryargumentsaboutbarriersto legislationresultingfrominternationallawandtradeagreements(Section7). Themainfindingsfromthiscompilationofliteratureareasfollows:

Inaworldwideenvironmentofincreasingprohibitionoftobaccoadvertisingandsponsorship, thecigarettepackhasbecomethekeymarketingtoolemployedbythetobaccoindustryto attractandretaincustomers.(Section3) Thetobaccoindustryusescigarettepacktechnologiesandinnovationsindesigntocommunicate particularattributesabouteachbrandandbyextensionthepersonalityandsocialstatusofits users.(Section4) Currentpackcoloursandimagerycandilutetheimpactofgraphichealthwarnings.(Section 5.2.1) Unregulatedpackagecolouringandimagerycontributetoconsumersmisperceptionsthat certainbrandsaresaferthanothers.Removingcoloursfromcigarettepacksandmisleading termssuchassmooth,goldandsilverwouldreducefalsebeliefsabouttheharmfulnessof cigarettes.(Section5.2.2) Adultsandadolescentsperceivecigarettesinplainpackstobelessappealing,lesspalatable,less satisfyingandoflowerqualitycomparedtocigarettesincurrentpackaging.Plainpackaging wouldalsoaffectyoungpeoplesperceptionsaboutthecharacteristicsandstatusofthepeople whosmokeparticularbrands.(Section5.2.3) Plainpackagingfeaturinglargergraphichealthwarnings(75%frontofpack)willbothreducethe appealofthepackandstrengthentheimpactofthewarnings.(Section5.2.4) BritishAmericanTobaccohasclaimedthatthelegislationwillnotbeeffective,pointingtothe resultsofaninternationalanalysisithascommissioned(andprovideddatafor)ontheimpactof healthwarningsonsales.Healthwarningshaveadifferentobjectivetoplainpackagingand monthlyvariationsinsalesdataarenotanappropriateindicatorofeffectiveness.Inanycasethe dataonwhichthisanalysisisbasedishighlyselectiveandthespecificationsofthemodelling incorrectinatleastoneimportantrespect.(Section7.1). TheAllianceofAustralianRetailersallegesthatplainpackagingwoulddamageretailerbusiness, increasingtransactiontimeatthecounterduetodifficultiesindifferentiatingbetweenbrands. TheAARsuggeststhatasaresult,customerswouldswitchtodiscountoutlets.However,anyloss ofconvenienceatretailoutletswillapplyequallytodiscountandconvenienceoutlets.Measures includinglabellingofthecontainerswherepacksarestoredandbrandnamesprintedonpacks inaclearfontstyleandsizewouldassistretailerstoquicklyindentifyandretrieveparticular brands.(Section6.3and7.2) Thetobaccoindustryclaimsplainpackagingrepresentsanacquisitionofintellectualproperty andassuchisprohibitedunderthetermsofvariousinternationaltradeagreements.The industryhassuggestedtheAustralianGovernmentwouldbeforcedtocompensatetheindustry

V319.05.11.Weintendtoaddtothisreviewresultsofseveralmorestudiesthatweareinformedarecloseto publication.

inbillionsofdollars.Papersbyexpertsinconstitutionalandtrademarklawontheotherhand suggestthatinternationalagreementspermitgovernmentstorestrictuseoftrademarksto protectpublichealth.Theyadvisethatplainpackagingwillnotbeanacquisitionofintellectual property,astheGovernmentdoesnotintendtousethelogosorbrandimagery;itwillsimplybe restrictingtheuseofthesemarketingtoolsoncigarettepackages.IfCourtsweretorulethat restrictionofuseoftrademarkswasanacquisitionofproperty,thenthelegislationhasbeen draftedtoallowtheuseoftrademarkswithlimitations.(Section7.3)

PlainpackaginghasbeencarefullyconsideredandresearchedinAustraliaandoverseasforsome 20years,butcontrarytoclaimsbytobaccocompaniesithasnotbeenabandonedasapolicy option.ThepaperprovideslinkstostatementsbyparliamentariansinNewZealand,France,the UnitedKingdomandtheEuropeanUnion,whicharealleitherundertakingpublicconsultationon plainpackagingorhavenamedplainpackagingamongproposalsforfuturetobaccocontrol strategies.(Section7.4) Companieshaveclaimedthatthelegislationwillreducepriceandcompetitioninthemarket. Opinionsofindustryanalystsaboutthelikelyeffectsoncompetitionaremixed.Aspointedout byDeloitteMCS,futuregovernmentshaveopentothemtheoptionoffurtherincreasingexcise andcustomsdutyontobaccoproductsshouldaveragepricesoftobaccoproductsfall.(Section 7.5) Tobaccoindustryclaimsthatplainpackagingwillincreaseillicittradeareexaggeratedand misleading.TheindustrysestimationofthecurrentsizeoftheillicitmarketinAustralia(15.9%) isbasedononeverysmallsurvey(949people)withaverylowresponserate.TheGovernments NationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyofmorethan23,000peoplesuggeststhatonlyabout 0.2%ofAustralians(1.2%ofsmokers)useunbrandedtobaccoproductshalfthetimeormore. TheAustralianGovernmentsdraftplainpackaginglegislationspecifiesthatanticounterfeiting markingswillbepermittedonplainpackaging,andtheAustralianTaxationOfficeandthe AustralianCustomsandBorderProtectionServiceshouldandnodoubtwillcontinueto vigorouslypursuetechnologiesandothersurveillanceandenforcementstrategiestoprevent theevasionofexciseandcustomsdutyinthiscountry.(Section7.6)

Insummarytherearestronggroundsforbelievingthatcurrentpackagingglamourisessmokingand thattobaccoproductspackagedinastandardisedcolour,typefaceandformwould: improvetheeffectivenessofhealthwarnings reducemisconceptionsaboutrelativeharmfulnessofvariousbrandsand reducetheoverallappealofsmoking

Theintensityofoppositiontoplainpackaginglegislationbytobaccocompaniessuggeststhat tobaccoindustryexecutivesbelievethatsuchmeasureswillreducesalesandcompanyprofits.

2. Introduction
Tobaccoproductsareuniqueamongconsumeritemsinthattheycausetheprematuredeathof everysecondlongtermuser.Whileitisimpracticaltobanthepurchaseofaproductthatsomany peoplefindsodifficulttoquit,governmentstheworldoverhaveacceptedthatitisunethicalto encourageuseoftobaccoandappropriatetolegislatetopreventallformsofitspromotion.Despite theeffortsofgovernmentstocomprehensivelydiscouragesmoking,innovationinpackaginghas resultedincontinuingpromotionoftobaccoproducts. Onthe29thApril2010theAustralianGovernmentannounced[1]twoofitsmajorresponsestothe recommendations[2]ofitsPreventativeHealthTaskforce[3]whichhadsetoutacomprehensive packageofmeasurestomakeAustraliathehealthiestcountrybytheyear2020.Aproposalto mandateplainpackagingforalltobaccoproductssoldinAustraliawasthecentrepieceofthe Governmentsresponse.PlainpackagingrecognisesAustraliascommitmentasasignatorytothe WorldHealthOrganizationFrameworkConventiononTobaccoControl[4]andhasbeenwidely applaudedbyhealthagenciesbothinAustraliaandinternationally.Ithasalsobeenvigorously opposedbythetobaccoindustrywhichhascommissionedanumberofreportsthatsetoutits objectionstotheproposal. Thispapercompilesandwhereverpossibleprovideselectroniclinkstomorethan130publications relevanttothetopicofplainpackaging.Itbrieflysummarisesdiscussionofpackaginginthe marketingliterature(Section3)anddocumentsnumerousexamplesofincreasingreliancebythe tobaccoindustryonpackagingasamarketingtool(Section4).Thesearedrawnbothfromtrade pressandfrominternalcompanydocumentsreleasedaspartofsettlementoflegalactionbetween tobaccocompaniesandattorneysgeneralintheUnitedStatesunderthetermsofwhichallcompany documentsbothhistoricalandcontemporary,bothintheUSandinoverseassubsidiariesare releasedonacontinuingbasis.ii Itsummarisesthefindingsof24publishedstudiesconductedto carefullyandsystematicallytestandquantifythelikelyimpactofplainpackaging(Section5).It recordsthereactionsofvariousexpertgroupstotheAustralianGovernmentsannouncementabout plainpackaging(Section6).Finallyitdescribesresearchrelevanttosomeofthemajorarguments againstplainpackaging,providinglinkstosubmissionsbytobaccocompaniesandothersopposing suchlegislationaswellasresearchpapersthatanalyseindustryargumentsaboutvarious unintendedconsequencesitenvisagesforretailersandgovernment(Section7).

ii

ThesehavebeencomprehensivelycataloguedbyseveralUSuniversitiesandareeasilysearchableonline.See Hhttp://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/H

3. Packaging in the marketing mix

Packagingact(s)asapromotionaltoolinitsownright. PalmerA.Theproduct.InPalmer,AJ,eds,In:Principlesofmarketing.2000 (p215).[5] Theproductpackageisthecommunicationlifebloodofthefirmorthesilentsalesman thatreachesouttocustomers. UnderwoodandOzanne(p208).[6] ifyousmoke,acigarettepackisoneofthefewthingsyouuseregularlythatmakesa statementaboutyou.Acigarettepackistheonlythingyoutakeoutofyourpocket20times adayandlayoutforeveryonetosee.Thatsalotdifferentthanbuyingyoursoappowderin genericpackaging. BrownandWilliamsonemployee(p5).[7] TheconceptofamixofmarketingfunctionswasconceivedbyProfessorNeilBordenoftheHarvard BusinessSchool.PerhapsthebestknowndefinitionofthismixisthatproposedbyMcCarthywho talkedofthefourPsofmarketing.[8]Packagingdifferentiatesbrands,beingparticularlyimportantin homogenousconsumerproductssuchascigarettes.[9] iii Coloursandtypefacehavelongbeenknown toelicitparticularresponsesinconsumers,oftenshapedbystrongsocialandculturalforces. Imageryandsymbolsalsoexertpowerfuleffects,linkingdesirableattributeswithparticularbrands. Theworldsmostpopularcigarettebrand,Marlboro,[10]canreadilybeidentifiedthroughitsiconic redchevron.Sociologically,asymbolactsasastimuluselicitingaparticularresponsebasedon peoplesunderstandingofmeaning.TheheraldiccoatsofarmsonBensonandHedgespacksfor instanceisanabstractwordlesssymbolthatimpartsnotionsofstatusandattestedquality.[11] Withtheincreasingprevalenceoftobaccoadvertisingandsponsorshipbansthroughouttheworld, thepackhasfastbecomethemostimportantpromotionalvehicleforreachingpotentialandcurrent smokers.[12][13][14][15][16][17][18] TheGovernmentofNorwayintroducedwhatwastheworldsmostcomprehensivebanon advertisingin1975,andyetaqualitativestudyconductedin2003ofyoungadultNorwegian smokersaged1823(bornfivetotenyearsafterthebancameintoplace)highlightshowthe tobaccoindustrycontinuestomarkettothisdemographicthroughpersuasivecigarettepackdesign. Thestudyshowedhowcigarettebrandsandcigarettepackagedesignsgavemeaningtopersonal characteristics,tosocialidentityandtopositionsinhierarchiesofstatus.Intheyoungsmokers accounts,brandsappearedtoaddanextradimensiontothesocialmeaningofsmokingintheirdaily life.[19] Morerecentlyseveralnationshavebannedtheopendisplayoftobaccoproductsinretaillocations. Thesejurisdictionshavereasoned: Powerwallsandcountertopdisplaysarehighlyvisibleandeyecatching.Theypresentan unavoidableandunfortunatespillofpromotionalimageryandproductremindersto vulnerableconsumersincludingyoungpeople,formersmokersandsmokersofallages whoaretryingtoquit(p8).[20]
iii

Portionsofthismaterialaredrawnfrom:FreemanB,ChapmanSandRimmerM.Review:thecaseforthe plainpackagingoftobaccoproducts.Addiction2008;103:58090.Availablefrom Hhttp://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/tobaccorelatedpapers/Addiction_generic.pdfH

Withremovalofpointofsaleasanopportunityforpromotion,BritishAmericanTobaccoandPhilip Morris[21]havepredictedthat,inthefuture,packdesignalonewilldrivebrandimagery.[22]Unless governmentsimposefurtherrestrictionsonpackaging,bansontheretaildisplayoftobaccowill encourageafurthershiftinindustryinvestmenttowardsinnovativepackdesign,withthepack functioningastheonlyremainingvehicleforproductpromotion. Uniqueamongindustries,thetobaccoindustryhaslongclaimedthatithasnointerestinattracting newcustomers(i.e.nonsmokers)butisinterestedonlyinstimulatingbrandswitchingandin maintainingbrandloyaltyincurrentcustomers.[23]Howeverinternalindustrydocumentscandidly acknowledgethevitalimportanceofattractingnew(predominantlyyoung)smokers.[22][24][25] [26][27][28]Thesedocumentsconfirmthatcompanieshaveinvestedheavilyinpackdesigninorder tocommunicatespecificmessagestospecificdemographicgroupsincludingyoungpeople.[18][22] Intheearly1990sapresenteraddressingmarketingstaffatPhilipMorrisremarkedthatsmokers: arereadyforchangeandonceexposedtoinnovative{packaging}especiallyyoungadults seetheircurrentpackagingasdatedandboring(p2).[29] Thepresenterwentontoencourage Packsaimedatyoungerwomenshouldbeslick,sleek,flashy,glittery,shiny,silky, bold(p9).[29] Packdesigndoesntjustcommunicatethepersonalityofacigarettebrandtothesmoker...italso allowssmokerstoprojectthesecharacteristicstootherswhentheyhandleanddisplaythepackage throughouttheirdailyroutines.[18]Justasdesignerclothing,accessoriesandcarsserveassocialcues tostyle,status,valuesandcharacter,sotoocancigarettepackssignifyarangeofattributesabout users.Asbadgeproducts,cigarettescanreinforcethecharacteristicsconjuredbybrandimage.[18] [7][30][31][32][33]Thisbehaviournotonlyaffectsthesingleconsumerbutalsoexertsapowerful effectontheirfriends,associatesandevencasualcontacts.Consumertheoryandresearchhas demonstratedthatincidentalbrandencounters(ICBEs)powerfullyaffectbuyingpatternsinwaysin whichtheconsumerisnotfullyaware.AseriesoffourstudiesbyFerraro,BettmandandChartrand publishedintheJournalforConsumerResearchin2008forinstancefoundthatrepeatedexposureto simulatedICBEs: increaseschoiceofthefocalbrandamongpeoplenotawareofthebrandexposure,that perceptualfluencyunderliestheseeffectsandtheseeffectsaremoderatedbyperceivers automaticresponsestothetypeofuserobservedwiththebrand.(p729).[34]

4. Recent trends in cigarette packaging

Intheearly1900sbeforetheadventoftelevisionandradio,collectablecigarettecardswereamajor formofinpackpromotion.[35]Restrictionsonadvertisingoftobaccothroughthemassmediahave promptedmanufacturerstoacontemporaryreturntothepackageastheprimarysourceof promotion. Ifyourbrandcannolongershoutfrombillboards,letalonefromthecinemascreenorthe pagesofaglossymagazineitcanatleastcourtsmokersfromtheretailersshelf,orfrom whereveritisplacedbythosealreadywedtoit.(p17)[13] Manyarticlesinthetobaccoindustrytrademagazine,WorldTobacco,inrecenttimeshaveurged manufacturerstousepackagingasanadvertisingtool[36][37][38][14][15][16][17]andadvances inprintingtechnologyhaveenabledmanufacturerstotakepromotionthroughpackagingtoawhole newlevel.Recentdevelopmentsincludeprintingofonpackimageryontheinnerframecard,[39] outerfilmandteartape,[14]andtheincorporationofholograms,collectableart,metallic finishes,[40]multifoldstickers,[16]photographs,andretroimagesinpackdesign.[41][42][43] Withtheuptakeofprintedinnerframecardswhatwewillincreasinglyseeisthepackbeing viewedasatotalopportunityforcommunicationsfromprintedouterfilmandteartape throughtotheinnerframeandinnerbundle.Eachpackcomponentwillprovidean integratedfunctionaspartofacarefullyplannedbrandorinformationcommunications campaign(p37).[39] Innovationsincigarettepackagingincludenotjustembellishmentstothepack,butalsothe incorporationofdesignfeaturesoncigarettesthemselves.

Figure 1 A cigarette printed with the colours of the Dutch soccer team
Source: Raf de Ryck (private collection)

ExamplesofinnovationinpackaginginAustraliaincludethefollowing: During200002aseriesofsubtlechangestocigarettepacksandtrademarkswere observedonbothBenson&HedgesandWinfieldcigarettepacks.[44]Whenresearchers calledthecompanytoenquireaboutthechanges,anemployeesaidtheywereplaying withthelogobecausewecantdoanyadvertisinganymore(p154).[44] InFebruary2006,onemonthpriortotheadoptionofpicturebasedwarningson tobaccopackages,PeterStuyvesantcigaretteswerebeingsoldintrendyretrostyletins which,unlikesoftpacketsofcigaretteswithonpackprintedwarnings,hadhealth warningstickersthatwereeasilypeeledoff(p151)[45](Figures2and3).Retailers reportedthatthetinswereverypopularwithyoungersmokers.


Figure 2 Peter Stuyvesant cigarettes packed in a tin container with a removable warning
Source: Quit Victoria

Figure 3 Another Peter Stuyvesant tin

Source: Quit Victoria

BritishAmericanTobaccoAustralia(BATA)introducedsplitDunhillpacksinOctober 2006.[46]Thepackcouldbesplitalongaperforatedlinetocreatetwominipacks, easilysharedbetweentwosmokersperhapsunabletoaffordafullpack(Figure4). Oncesplit,oneofthetwopacksdidnotbearthemandatorygraphichealth warning.[47] iv

iv

BATAremovedthepacketsfromthemarketwhenitwasfoundtobeinbreachoftobaccoproductlabelling laws.


Figure 4 Split package of Dunhill cigarettes
Source: Quit Victoria

Whenthedescriptivetermslightandmildwereprohibited,andcigarettetar yieldswerescheduledtobereplacedwithqualitativeinformationaboutharmful constituents,theindustryrespondedbydevelopingcolourcodedpackageswith newterms:NowyourHorizoncustomerscangettheirfavouritebrandinanexciting newlookpack.Withnewdescriptorsandclearernumbersallourpacksaremuch easiertoidentify.Researchprovesthatyourcustomerswillfindthenewpackmore appealingandaloteasiertorecognize(p214).[48] Legislationmandatingplainpackagingthatcoveredallaspectsofthedesignofsticksandeverypart ofthepack(includinginserts,cardboardandcellophanewrap)wouldeffectivelystandardisethe appearanceofallbrandsoftobaccoproducts,greatlyreducingthestatussignallingroleandappeal ofcigarettes.[49]

Figure 5 An example of cigarettes in proposed plain packaging as proposed by health groups in 2010
Source: VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control

10

5. Results of research into the effects of plain packaging

Asplainpackshaveneverbeenlegislated,evidenceabouttheirpossibleimpactnecessarilyderives fromexperimentalstudieswheresubjectshavetypicallybeenpresentedwithbothbrandedand mockedupplainpacksandaskedaboutassociationsandpreferences.

5.1 History of international research on plain packaging

In1995anexpertpanelprovidedtotheCanadianDepartmentofHealthacomprehensivereviewof thelikelyeffectsofplainpackagingentitledWhenPackagesCantSpeak:PossibleImpactsofPlain andGenericPackagingofTobaccoProducts.[50] Tothattime,foursetsofstudieshadbeenconductedonplainpackagingofcigarettes: thesocalledMarlborostudy(Trachtenberg,1987)[51] theNewZealandstudyset(BeedeandLawson,1992[52,53];Beedeet.al.,1991[54]) theAustralianstudy(CentreforBehaviouralResearchinCancer,1992)[55]and theUniversityofTorontostudy(CentreforHealthPromotion,1993)[56].

Theexpertpanelfoundthatallfourstudiesproducedsomeevidencetosupportthehypothesisthat plainandgenericpackagingmadecigaretteslessattractiveandappealing.Nocomparablestudy providingcontraryevidencewasknowntoexist.[50] TheresearchobjectivesoftheCanadianexpertpanelwere: toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesonthelikelihoodof smokinguptake; toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesontherecognition andrecallofhealthwarningmessagesoncigarettepackages; toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesonthelikelihoodof cessationofsmoking; toevaluatealternativedesignsforplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesintermsoftheir potentialimpactontheuptakeorcessationofsmoking;and toprojectpossibleindustryresponsestoplainandgenericpackagingbyexamininghistorical evidenceandtheoryofcompetitionregardingtheactionsofcompaniesinindustries characterizedbyincreasingcommoditization.

Totacklethesefiveoverallobjectives,theExpertPanelconceived,conductedandanalysedfindings ofabatteryofsixdifferentstudiesemployingfivemethodologicalapproaches.[50]
Study Method Surveydirectquestioning/withinsubjectdesign Surveydirectquestioning/withinsubjectdesign Experimentdirectquestioning/withinandbetweensubjectdesign 1)NationalSurveyofadolescents 2)WordImageSurvey

3)VisualImageExperiment

4)RecallandRecognitionExperiment Experimentdirectquestioning/betweensubjectdesign 5)ConjointExperiment Experimentindirectquestioning/withinsubjectdesign Analysisofprecedentsofindustrycompetitive&strategyactivitiesincommodity industries

6)AnalysisofIndustryEffects

Thenationalsurveyofadolescentsshowedthatteenagerswerehighlyawareofcigarettebrands. Around90%wereabletorecognizethetwomajorCanadianbrandsevenwhenbrandnameswere 11

removedfrompackaging,withteenagerswhowereexperimentingwithsmokingonaverageableto recognise2.9brandsandregular/frequentteenagesmokers5.9.Forallbrands,package approacheswerethefirstthingmentionedbythemajorityofrespondentswhocorrectlyidentified thebrandasmethodsbywhichcompaniespromotedawarenessofbrands.Whileteenagersrarely admittothelikelihoodofpromotionalstrategiesaffectingthem,asurprisinglylargeproportion reportedthathavingcigarettesavailableonlyinplainpackagingwouldbotherthemalot(23.8%). Manyrespondentsbelievedthathavingcigarettesavailableonlyinplainandgenericpackageswould haveaneffectonthenumberofteenagerswhowouldstartsmoking.Morethanonethird(35.8%) believedthatafewlesswouldstartsmokingand13.5%believedthatalotfewerwouldstart smoking.Almostfortypercent(38.2%)believedthatplainpackagingwouldpromptmoreteenagers tostopsmoking. Thewordimagesurveyaimedtoassesstheassociationsteenagersmadeaboutproductsandabout smokersthroughcomparingthepackagingofapopularandlesswellknownbrandtoplain packaging.Thecurrent,brandedpackagingwasassociatedwithamorepositiveimagethantheplain whitepackaging.Theresearchersconcludedthatwhileplainpackagingwouldnotpreventcigarettes frombeingusedtoconveyanimageofbeingateensmoker,packagingcigarettesinplainand genericpackageswouldreducetheabilitiesofbrandstodifferentiatethemselvesfromeachother andthereforetheabilitytolinkpersonalimagewiththebrand.Totheextentthatteensattemptto useaparticularcigarettebrandasabadgeoftheirownselfimage,aparticularbrandwouldbecome alessusefulinstrument.[50][57] Thevisualimageexperimentshowedthatteensaremuchlesslikelytoassociatespecificbrandswith specifictypesofpeoplewhenpacksareplain,andevenlesssowhenplainpacksalsofeatureda photoofalung.[50]Theresearchersconcludethat
Denudingcigarettepackagesofmajorelementsoftheirbrandmarkings(otherthantheirname) appearstolimitteenagers'capacitytoassociatespecificimageswithspecificbrands.Underthese circumstances,thesebrandslosetheirbadgevalueandselfdefiningcharacteristics.Whenthese characteristicsrepresentkeymotivatorsinteenagers'decisionstosmoke,thenitseemsreasonableto concludethatplainandgenericpackagingcanbeausefulstrategyinattemptingtodemarketcigarettes toteenagersbecauseitwouldmakeitmoredifficulttobuildormaintainbrandequity.(Section6.3.4,p 101)

Therecallandrecognitionexperimentfoundthatatleastonewarning,Smokingcankillyou,was betterrecalledwhenitwasontheplainpackagewheretherestofthepackagehadfewer competingmessages.Theteensfavouritebrand,duMaurier,wasrecalledlesswhenitwasina plainpackageasopposedtothefamiliarredpackage. Conjointanalysisisamultivariatetechniqueusedspecificallytounderstandhowconsumersdevelop preferencesforproductsandservicesbasedonthesimplepremisethatconsumersevaluatethe utilityofaproductorserviceidea(realorhypothetical)bycombiningtheseparateamountsofutility providedbyeachattribute.Whilepricewasfoundtobethemostimportantcontributortodecisions aboutsmoking,researchersconcludedthatplainpackagingwouldalsoinfluencedecisionsabout uptakeofsmokingandquitting. Onthebasisofadetailedanalysisofthefindingsofallfiveofthesestudiesseechart1,pages152 155,theexpertpanelconcluded:
Virtuallyallthefindingsofthesefivestudiesconvergeonthefollowingconclusions.Plainandgenericpackaging oftobaccoproducts(allotherthingsbeingequal),throughitsimpactonimageformationandretention,recall andrecognition,knowledge,andconsumerattitudesandperceivedutilities,wouldlikelydepresstheincidenceof smokinguptakebynonsmokingteens,andincreasetheincidenceofsmokingcessationbyteenandadult smokers.Thisimpactwouldvaryacrossthepopulation.Theextentofchangeinincidenceisimpossibletoassess exceptthroughfieldexperimentsconductedovertime.[50]p158

SincetheCanadianexpertreview,furtherresearchhasbeenconductedinCanada,[58][59][60][61] [62][63]theUnitedStates,[64]Australia,[65][66][67][68]theUnitedKingdom[69]New 12

Zealand[70]andacrosscountries.[71]Thisresearchhasfocussedontheeffectsofplainpackagingon awareness,recallandimpactofhealthwarnings,[53][55][61]onperceptionsofriskinessoftobacco products,[62][69][71]andontheappealofbrandsandproducts.[52][54][58][65][66][67][70] [68][63][64][68]

5.2 Summary of results of research by theme

Inareviewofevidenceontheeffectsofplainpackagingconductedupto2009Hammond concludes:[72] Theevidenceindicatesthreeprimarybenefitsofplainpackaging:increasingthe effectivenessofhealthwarnings,reducingfalsehealthbeliefsaboutcigarettes,andreducing brandappealespeciallyamongyouthandyoungadults.Overall,theresearchtodate suggeststhatplainpackagingregulationswouldbeaneffectivetobaccocontrolmeasure, particularlyinjurisdictionswithcomprehensiverestrictionsonotherformsofmarketing. The following four sections summarise the findings of studies to dateboth before and since Hammondsreviewthathaveexaminedthesemajorpotentialbenefitsofplainpackaging.

5.2.1 Effects of plain packaging on effectiveness of health warnings

Plainpackresearchshowsconsistentlythatpackbrandimagerydistractsfromandthereforereduces theimpactofhealthwarnings.Studentshaveanenhancedabilitytorecallhealthwarningsonplain packs.[53][61]Healthwarningsonplainpacksareseenasbeingmoreseriousthanthesame warningsonbrandedpacks,suggestingthatbrandimagerydiffusestheoverallimpactofhealth warnings.[60]Amulticountrytobaccosurveyexaminingtheeffectivenessofwarningsshowedthat smokersinCanada,whowereatthetimeofthestudyexposedtolarge,picturebasedwarnings, weresignificantlymorelikelytoreportthinkingaboutthehealthrisksofsmoking,tostopfrom havingacigarette,andtothinkaboutquittingbecauseofthehealthwarnings.[73]Thesamestudy alsoshowedthatthelargerandmoreprominentahealthwarning,themorelikelyitwastobe recalled.Plainpackagingwouldenablethewarningsizetobefurtherincreasedandallowfor additionalinformationelaboratingonwarningsandaboutsmokingcessationtobeprintedonpacks.

5.2.2 Effects of plain packaging on perceptions of harmfulness

Unregulatedpackagecolouringandimagerycontributestoconsumermisperceptionsthatcertain brandsaresaferthanothers.[18][21][62][74]Thecolourofpacksisalsoassociatedwith perceptionsofriskandbrandappeal:comparedwithMarlboropackswitharedlogo,Marlboro packswithagoldlogowereratedaslowerhealthriskby53%andeasiertoquitby31%ofadult smokersinaUKstudy.[69]Astudyof8243smokersfromtheUS,theUK,CanadaandAustraliain 2006similarlyfoundthatsmokersofgold,silver,blueorpurplebrandsweremorelikelytobelieve thattheirownbrandmightbealittlelessharmfulcomparedtosmokersofredorblackbrands.[71] Researchersinbothstudiesconcludedthatremovingcoloursfrompacks(plainpackaging),aswellas termssuchas'smooth''gold'and'silver'wouldsignificantlyreducefalsebeliefs.

5.2.3 Effects of plain packaging on appeal of product

Theappealoftobaccoproductscanbeunderstoodintermsoftheappealofthepackormore broadlyasperceptionsaboutthesensoryappealoftheproduct(intermsoftaste,smoothnessetc) ormorebroadlystillintermsofthetypesorcharacteristicsofpeoplelikelytouseparticularbrands. AnAustralianstudypublishedin2008involvingmorethan800adultsmokersexaminedtheeffects oftheappealoftobaccoproductsofprogressivelyreducingtheamountofpackbrandingdesign information.AsillustratedinFigure6below,theplainestpackswereseenaslessattractive (brand/packcharacteristic),smokersofthepackswereseenassignificantlylessstylishandsociable 13

(smokercharacteristic)andthecigarettesinthepackswerethoughttobelesssatisfyingandof lowerquality(sensoryperception).[66]
40 45 50 55 65

60

Positive pack attributes Positive smoker attributes Positive sensory features

Figure 6 Level of attractiveness of increasingly plainer tobacco packaging

Source: Wakefield MA, Germain D and Durkin SJ. How does increasingly plainer cigarette packaging influence adult smokers perceptions about brand image? An experimental study. Tobacco Control 2008;17:41621.[66]

Asimilarlydesignedstudyinvolvingadolescentspublishedin2009foundthatprogressively removingbrandelementssuchascolour,brandedfontsandimageryfromcigarettepacks,resulted inadolescentsmokersseeingpacksaslessappealing,havingmorenegativeexpectationsofcigarette tasteandratingattributesofatypicalsmokerofthepacklesspositively.[67] ACanadianstudy(resultsofwhichwerepublishedinpapersonlineinMarch2011[63]andaUS studypublishedinApril2011[64])examinedtheeffectsofremovalofbrandimageryonyoung femalesmokersaged18to25years.Participantswereaskedtoviewimagesoffemaleoriented brands ascurrentlypackaged inthesamepackswithbrandnamesbutwithoutdescriptorsand inplainwhitepacksonceagainwithbrandnamesbutwithoutdescriptors.

Theywerethenaskedtorateeachpackforappeal,taste,healthrisksandtarlevels.IntheCanadian study,thehighestratedfemalepack,CapriCherry,wasratedmoreappealingthanotherbrandsby almost67%ofparticipants.Theresearchersfoundthatremovingdescriptorsandcoloursfrompacks substantiallyreducedtheappealoffemaleorientedbrandsforfemalesmokers:forexample,the appealofCapriCherryfellfrom67%to17%amongwomenwhoviewedplainpackswithoutthe wordCherry.Plainpackswerealsoassociatedwithsignificantlyfewerpositivecharacteristicsthan fullybrandedpacks,includingglamour,beingslim,popular,attractiveandsophisticated.Of 14

particularnote,youngwomenintheplainpackconditionweresignificantlylesslikelytobelievethat smokinghelpspeoplestayslimcomparedtoparticipantsinthenodescriptorscondition.[63] FindingsweresimilarintheUSstudy.Amongsmokerswhorequestedapackattheendofthestudy, femalebrandedpackswerethreetimesmorelikelytobeselectedthanplainpacks.Researchers concluded: Plainpackagingandremovingdescriptorssuchasslimsfromcigarettepacksmayreduce smokingsusceptibilityamongyoungwomen.[64]

5.2.4 Combined effect of plain packaging and health warnings

Isitpossiblethattheappealoftobaccoproductscouldbereducedsimplybyincreasingthesizeof healthwarningsratherthanbyremovingbrandingelementsthroughplainpackaging? Asoutlinedabove,plainpackagingunderminesthepositiveimageofbrands,increasesthenegative aspectsofbrandimageandreducespositivetasteexpectations.Andashasbeenfoundinextensive researchontheeffectofhealthwarnings,largerhealthwarningsaremorenoticeable,memorable andthereforemorelikelytoelicitcessationrelatedattitudesandbehaviours v .AnAustralianstudy fundedbytheNationalHealthandMedicalResearchCouncil,resultsofwhichwerepresentedatthe 2011meetingoftheSocietyforResearchinTobaccoandNicotinespecificallyexploredthequestion ofwhetherremovingthecolouranddesignfeaturesofpackagingwasmoreeffectivethanincreasing thesizeofhealthwarningsinreducingtheappealofbrands.[68]Thestudyfoundthatoncepacks wereplain,increasingthesizeofthefrontofpackhealthwarningsfrom30%to70%ormoredidnot furtherreducebrandappeal.Whileotherresearchindicatesthatlargerhealthwarningsarelikelyto bemorenoticeableandmemorabletoconsumers,inthisstudyplainpackagingwasmuchmore effectivethanincreasingthesizeofhealthwarningsinreducingtheappealofthebrand. Giventhedualobjectiveof a. preventingcompaniesfrompackagingtobaccoproductsinawaythatincreasestheirappeal particularlytoyoungpeopleand b. informingconsumersaseffectivelyaspossibleaboutthehealthrisksofsmoking, whatthenistheoptimalsizeofhealthwarningsoncigarettesinplainpackaging? ANewZealandstudypublishedinTobaccoControlin2010providessomeguidancehere.[70]The studyexaminedthecombinedeffectsofhealthwarningsandplainpackagingonthelikelihoodof youngadults18to30yearsengaginginbehavioursknowntobelinkedtocessation.Smokersinthis studywereaskedwhichpacktheywouldbemostandleastlikelytochooseeachtimetheywere repeatedlypresentedwithfourcigarettepacketsfeaturingdifferentbrandingandwarningsize combinations.Packswiththegreatestnumberofbrandingelementswerestillpreferredevenwhen thewarningswereincreasedfrom30to50%.Howevertheywerelesslikelytobechosenwitha75% warning.Plainpacketswith75%healthwarningsweresignificantlymorelikelytoelicitstronger cessationlinkedintentions(toreducetheamountsmoked;increasequitattempts;increasehelp seekingtoquit)thanwerebrandedpackswitha30%frontofpackwarnings.

SeeHhttp://www.smokefree.ca/warnings/Research.htmHforadetailedcompilationofevidence.

15

6. Expert responses to the proposal for plain packaging

Onthe7thApril2011theAustralianGovernmentreleasedaconsultationpaper[75]anddraft exposurelegislationfortheTobaccoPlainPackagingBill2011[76]priortoscheduledconsideration ofthebillinthewintersessionoftheAustralianParliament.[77]

6.1 Health sector response to proposed legislation

TheGovernmentsannouncementaboutitsintentiontointroduceplainpackagingreceived overwhelmingsupportfromthehealthsector,withspokespeopledescribingtheannouncementas themostimportantnationaldevelopmentintobaccocontrolsincetobaccoadvertisingwasbanned inthe90s[78]andcommentingthatitwasdifficulttoexaggeratetheimportanceofsuch reforms.[79][80] Onreleaseoftheexposurebill,ProfessorMikeDaube,PresidentofthePublicHealthAssociationof Australiaremarked:
Thetobaccoindustryhasrespondedtothismovemoreferociouslytoanythingintobaccocontrolin 20yearsandIthinkthatsendsoutasignal,ifthetobaccoindustryissoworriedaboutit,thenwe've gottobeontherighttrack.[81]

ProfessorofpublichealthandformereditoroftheBritishMedicalJournalsTobaccoControlSimon Chapmancommented:
Ithinkit'simpossibletounderestimatetheglobalimportanceofthisannouncement.Ican'tthinkof anyotherconsumergoodanywhereintheworldwheregovernmentshavesaidthisisentirelyhow youmustpackagethisproductforconsumers,andIthinkthat'sreallyappropriatebecausethe numberofpeoplewhoarekilledbytobaccoeveryyeargloballyandinAustraliaisastronomical.[82]

OutgoingdirectoroftheCancerCouncilVictoriaandPresidentoftheInternationalUnionAgainst CancerProfessorDavidHillstated:
Thereisnogreaterbarometertothelikelysuccessofaproposedtobaccocontrolinitiativethanthe responseofthetobaccoindustry...IcommendtheAustraliangovernmentforitscourageintackling thisvitalpublichealthissueandIurgeallmembersofParliamenttotakethisopportunitytosavethe livesofthousandsofyoungAustraliansbypassingthislegislation.Itistimetosayenough.[83]

NewZealandAssociateHealthMinisterTarianaTuriarespondedtotheAustralianreleaseofdraft legislationon7April2011stating:
Weareverysupportiveoftoday'sannouncementbyAustralianhealthministerNicolaRoxonanditis myexpectationthatNewZealandwillinevitablyfollowtheirleadandlooktointroducetheplain packagingoftobaccoproducts.[84]

CynthiaCallard,ExecutiveDirectorofPhysiciansforaSmokeFreeCanadaremarked:
Thebenefitsofplainandstandardizedpackagingfortobaccoproductsarewellestablished.Thisisa healthmeasuresupportedattheinternationallevelbytheWorldHealthOrganization'sglobalpublic healthtreaty,theFrameworkConventiononTobaccoControl.[85]

6.2 Financial market response

Whilehealthgroupsandexpertspraisedthemove,financialmarketsappearedtoviewthe legislationasabigriskforindustryprofitability.Investmentbank,Citigroup,immediatelyissueda statementexpressingtheviewthatplainpackagingwasthebiggestregulatorythreattothe industry,aspackagingisthemostimportantwaytobaccocompanieshavetocommunicatewiththe consumeranddifferentiatetheirproducts.[86]InJanuaryandMarch2011itcontinuedtowarn investorsaboutthethreatposedbypackagingreforms.[87,88] 16

6.3 Tobacco industry response

ImperialTobaccostatedatthetimeoftheGovernmentsannouncementthatitwouldmakeevery efforttoprotectitsbrandsandassociatedintellectualpropertyandincluding,ifnecessary,takelegal action.[89],andrepeatedthispositiononthereleaseofthedraftlegislation.
Plainpackaginghasnotbeenintroducedinanycountryintheworldandthereisnoevidenceto supportthegovernment'sclaimthatthiswillreducesmoking,thecompanysaidinastatement.[90]

Presumablyinanticipationofthelegislation,PhilipMorrisInternationallaunchedanentirewebsite vi dedicatedtoplainpackagingmonthspriortotheannouncement.Thewebsitefeaturesvideo interviewswithretailersfromAustraliaandtheUK,ananimatedcliponwhyplainpackagingwillfail, andpagespromotingtheviewsthatplainpackagingwontwork,violatestrademarkrightsandwill increaseillicittrade.Inresponsetothereleaseofdraftlegislation,aspokesmanforPhilipMorris toldAAPthatplainpackagingwould:

fueltheillicittradeintobaccoproducts.We'llcontinuetoopposeplainpackagingineveryway possiblebecauseofthoseseriousissuesthatthegovernmenthasn'ttakenintoaccountwhen pursuingthispolicy.[90]

BritishAmericanTobaccoswebsitealsoincludesapositionstatementonplainpackaging.[91]In additiontoarguingthatsuchlegislationwouldnotbeeffective,BATclaims:
Genericpackagingwouldmakeithardertopreventsmuggledandcounterfeitproductsenteringa market,erodinggovernmenttaxrevenueanddisruptingeffortstotackletheillegaltradeintobacco productsthatplaysasignificantroleinfundinginternationalcrimeandterrorism.

InresponsetotheGovernmentsreleaseoftheexposurebill,aBATAustralasiaspokespersonstated thatsuchlegislationwillresultinclaimsforcompensationthatwouldbebornebytaxpayers.[92] Extensive requests under Freedom of Information legislation InOctober2010theAustralianSenateEstimatesCommitteewasinformedthatanunnamedtobacco companyhadmadeatleast19requeststhroughFreedomofInformationprovisionsforinformation aboutGovernmentdeliberationsonplainpackaginggoingbackto1992.[93] Alliance of Australian Retailers Inadditiontotheirdirectrepresentationsabouttheproposedlegislation,BritishAmericanTobacco Australia,PhilipMorrisandImperialTobaccoAustraliaalsocollaboratedtofundamassmedia countercampaignbytheAllianceofAustralianRetailers,anorganisationestablishedshortlybefore thecommencementofthe2010electioncampaign.Theaimofthecampaignwastostopthe introductionofplainpackaging.[94]Advertisementsfeaturingportrayalsofconcernedretailers sayingthatplainpackagingwouldntworkandwoulddamagetheirbusinessappearedin newspapers,ontelevisionandradio. vii Daysafterthelaunchofthecampaign,severalmajorretailers withdrewtheirsupportfortheAlliance.RetailerWoolworthsrevokeditsmembershipofthe AustralasianAssociationofConvenienceStores(AACS)overthecampaignanddemandedthatits $15,000inannualfeesbereturned.[95]TheAACSwhichincludescompaniesCaltex,Shell,BPand ColeswithdrewitssupportafterColes(whichchairstheboardoftheAACS)objectedtohavingbeen misleadaboutthenatureofthecampaign.[95]
vi

Hhttp://www.plainpackaging.com Theadscanbeviewedhere:Hhttp://australianretailers.com.au/latestnews.html

vii

17

On10September2010,ABCtelevisionprogramLatelinerevealedthecontentsofleakedinternal documents,emailsandcontractswhichshowedthefullextentoftobaccoindustryinfluenceonthe AllianceofAustralianRetailerscampaign.[96]OnthedaytheAlliancewasformeditreceivedfunds fromImperialTobaccoAustralia($1million),BritishAmericanTobaccoAustralia($2.2million)and PhilipMorris($2.1million).DocumentsalsoshowedthatPhilipMorrisAustraliasoughtfromthe lobbyingandpublicrelationsfirm,theCivicGroup,adviceandassistanceforacampaigntostop plainpackaginglawsduringthefederalelection.TheVictorianHealthPromotionFoundation (VicHealth)andthePublicHealthAssociationofAustraliarespondedbycallingontheAustralian Governmenttolegislateforcompletebansonalltobaccoindustryadvertisingandtoforcetobacco companiestoreleasefulldetailsoflobbying,politicaldonationsandmarketingplansand budgets.[97]

18

7. Research relevant to major industry arguments against plain packaging

Healthgroupsarguethattheharmfulnessandaddictivenessoftobaccoproductsissufficientto warrantrestrictionofallformsofpromotion.Packagingisclearlyaformofpromotionandtherefore shouldnotbeallowed.However,plainpackaginghasbeenvigorouslyopposedbytobacco companiesoneachoccasionthattheideahasbeenproposed. viii Industryargumentsagainstplainpackaginghaveincludedfirstlythatthereisalackofevidencethat itwouldresultinreducedsmoking;secondlythatitwouldbedifficultforretailersresultinginlossof salestodiscountoutlets;thirdlythatsuchlegislationwouldbreachinternationalagreements concerningintellectualpropertyandthatforthisreasontheideahasbeenabandonedbyallthe countriesthathavepreviouslyconsideredit;thatitandfinallythatitwouldfacilitateillicittrade. Researchrelevanttoeachoftheindustrysmajorclaimsaboutunintendedconsequencesis describedbelow.

7.1 Wont work

AsindicatedinSection4above,plainpackaginghasnotyetbeenintroducedanywhereintheworld, soconclusionsaboutitslikelyeffectivenesshavetobebasedonknowledgeabouttheeffectsof packagingingeneral,andstudiestestingthereactionsofrespondentsexposedtodifferent packagingoptionsunderexperimentalconditions. Onthe4thMay2011,BritishAmericanTobaccoreleasedareport[98]preparedforitbyconsulting firmDeloittedescribedasanindependentassessmentoftheeffectsofregulationofpackagingon tobaccoconsumption.Thisdetailed98pagereport[99]purportstoassessthedirectimpactofwhat wastermedpackspaceappropriationonconsumptionoftobaccoproducts,andalsotodescribea numberofunintendedconsequencesofsuchlegislation. TheDeloittereportarguesthatlegislationmandatinghealthwarningshasnotbeeneffective becauseithasfailedtoreducetheconsumptionoftobaccoproductsinAustraliaandthereforethat plainpackaginglegislationisalsounlikelytobeeffective.Itbasesthisassessmentontheresultsof twoanalyses: i. aneconometricanalysisofconsumptionpatternsinanumberofcountriesthathave introducedhealthwarningsand ii. aneventstudylookingatmonthlylevelconsumptiondatafollowingintroductionof improvedwarningsinAustralia. Consumptionisnotanappropriateindicatoroftheeffectivenessofhealthwarningswhichshould onlybeconceivedasonenecessarybutnotasufficientcontributortowhatpromptsindividualsto takeuporstopsmoking.Inanycase,amajorerrorintheassumedtimingofintroductionofthe AustralianwarningsunderminesconfidenceinthevalidityofconclusionsdrawnfromtheDeloitte modellingrotatinghealthwarningswerefirstintroducedinAustraliain1987not1990. TuckedawayinSection2.2.1ofAppendixBisadisclosurethatindicatesjusthowselectivethedata isthatBAThasprovidedDeloitteforitsanalysis: MonthlybrandlevelconsumptiondataforAustraliahas(sic)beenprovidedby Neilsen.Sinceactualconsumptionvolumesarenotavailable,actualdutypaid
viii

Foracompilationofresponsesbytobaccocompaniestoeachofthevariousgovernmentinquiriessee Hhttp://www.smokefree.ca/plainpackaging/industryresponse.htm

19

shipmentvolumeshavebeenusedforanalysis.Duetodatalimitations,notable brandswiththemostconsistentdatahavebeenselected.Monthlyvolumeshave beenconvertedtoaquarterlyseriesforstructuralanalysis.Deloitte.2011,[99] page71 DeloittesfindingthatsalesofaselectionofBATproducts(theonlyproductsincludedinthe analysis)didnotdeclinemoresteeplythanusualoverparticularperiodsdoesnotprovethatthe marketasawholedidnotdeclineoverthosesameperiods.Interestingly,governmentdataonall dutiedtobaccoproductsdoinfacttellasomewhatdifferentstory,withtotalpercapitaweightof tobaccoproductssubjecttoexciseandcustomsdutydecliningmorethanwhatwouldbepredicted bythetrendlinefollowingtheintroductionofthefirstthreesetsofwarningsoncigarettepackaging inAustraliareferFigure7.

Figure7 Excise and customs duty receipts Australia 1970 to 2005*grams per person aged 16+yrs Sources:
OverseasTrade,ABSCatalogueno7885355,195859to196263,Table33p793196364to19678,Table35,p 1050,196869to19723,Table32p632;197273to197677,Table22p112. ExcisedataforAustralianTobaccoProducts,suppliedbyJohnBroweleit,ABSDec1994,andZigmontMackinois, June96andSept96 ExcisedataforAustraliantobaccoproducts,suppliedbyInternationalTradeSection,AustralianBureauof Statistics,MarchandSep1998. ImportclearancedataforAustralianTobaccoProducts,1981/2to1993/4,suppliedbyJohnBroweleit, InternationalTrade,ABSFeb1995,andMichaelAshly,Sept1996 CustomsdataforAustraliantobaccoproducts,suppliedbyInternationalTradeSection,AustralianBureauof Statistics,SeptemberandSeptember,1998 PopulationdatafromABSAustralianDemographicStatisticsfromCatalogue3101.0

*LastyearforwhichexcisedatahasbeenpublishedseeAIHW2007[100]

Alargebodyofresearchhasdemonstratedthatenhancedconsumerinformationontobacco packetshavemadewarningsmorenoticeableandhaveincreasedawarenessofthehealthrisksof

20

smokinginAustralia[101][102][103][104][105][106][107109][110]Canada,[111,112]andthe UK.[113] ix AsoutlinedinSection5above,therearestronggroundsforbelievingthatcurrentpackaging glamourisessmokingandthatplainpackagingwouldimprovetheeffectivenessofhealthwarnings, reducemisconceptionsaboutrelativeharmfulnessofvariousbrandsandreducetheoverallappeal oftobaccoproductsintermsofperceivedattractivenessofthepack,expectationsaboutand experienceoftasteandperceptionsaboutthekindsofpeoplebelievedtobelikelytouseparticular brands.Theeffectscouldbeexpectedtobeparticularlystrongamongyoungpeopleestablishing theiridentityandimageamongtheirpeers. Seniorstaffoftobaccocompaniesarenotrequiredtobeexpertinorspendtimeontheanalysisof publicpolicyoutofacademicinterest.Theydohoweverhaveafiduciarydutytocompany shareholders.Anyonepaidonthebasisofsalesorinpartwithshareparcelswouldhaveapersonal financialinterestincompanysalesandprofitability.Theintensityofoppositiontoplainpackaging andimprovedhealthwarningsbytobaccocompaniesandthetimeandmoneycompanieshave investedineffortstodelaytheirintroduction[115]suggestthattobaccoindustryexecutivesdo believethatsuchmeasureswillacceleratereductionsinsalesandcompanyprofits.

7.2 Will be difficult for retailers

TheAllianceofAustralianRetailershasstatedthatplainpackagingwouldmakeitmoretime consumingforretailerstofindcigarettepacketswhencustomerscomeintomakeaquickpurchase. Withanerosionofconveniencetothepurchaser,theAlliancefearsthatmorecustomerswouldturn tocheaperdiscountoutlets. Deloitteacknowledgesthatsmalltomediumretailersbelievethatplainpackagingwillresultina shiftinbusinesstolargeroutlets.Thisargumentignoresthefactthatsmallretailerswillstillbe locatedmoreconvenientlytosmokersthanwilllargeretailers.Italsoignoresthefactthatstaffin supermarketsandtobacconistswillfaceexactlythesamechallengesinidentifyingandselecting stock.AsDeloittepointsoutinitsreviewofresearchonpossibleunintendedconsequencesofplain packaginglegislation,commentatorssuchastheUKDepartmentofHealthhavepointedoutthat stockmanagementcouldbeassistedandtransactiontimesminimisedthroughuseofbrandedbulk containersandalphabeticalordering. ThedraftlegislationreleasedbytheGovernment[75]proposedthatthebrandnamebelarge enoughtobeseenbyretailers.

7.3 Represents an acquisition of intellectual property

Themajorobjectiontoplainpackagingbytobaccocompaniesinternationallyistheideathatit representsanacquisitionofintellectualpropertyandassuchwouldbeprohibitedundertheterms ofvariousinternationaltradeagreements,athemecoveredinallthesubmissionsbycompaniesto governmentinquiries.[116] OneofthemostvocalopponentsoftheproposedlegislationinAustraliahasbeentheInstituteof PublicAffairs.TheInstitutehasreceivedwidespreadmediacoverageforitsviewsthatplain
ix

InMay2009theInternationalTobaccoControlPolicyEvaluationProjectreleasedacomprehensive assessmentoftheimpactofhealthwarningsinternationally.TheITCProjectisanongoinginternationalstudy thatnowcovers19countriesaroundtheworld. 114. FongGT,CummingsKM,BorlandR,HastingsG,HylandA,GiovinoGA,etal.Theconceptual frameworkoftheInternationalTobaccoControl(ITC)PolicyEvaluationProject.TobaccoControl 2006;15(suppl.3):iii3iii11.Availablefrom: http://tc.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/abstract/15/suppl_3/iii3

21

packaginglegislationisequivalenttoacquiringtheintellectualpropertyoftobaccocompaniesand thattheGovernmentwouldbeforcedtocompensatetobaccocompaniestothetuneof$3billion dollarsannually.[117] The$3bmentionedintheInstitutesreportappearstobeveryroughlycalculatedbasedonthe amountoftotalturnoverofsalesoftobaccoproductsinAustralialessGovernmenttaxrevenue.It assumesthattheGovernmentwouldhavetocompensatenotjustforprofitsforgonebutforthe totalvalueofsales.Itmakesnoattempttonetoffthecostsofproductionanddistributionwhich wouldofcoursenolongerbeincurredifproductswerenolongersold.Inanycase,theInstitutes viewsaboutgovernmentliabilitywerequicklydismissed,withoneseniorlawexpertfromMonash Universitycommentingthatthislineofargumentwas: soweak,itsnonexistent.ThereisnorighttouseatrademarkgivenbytheWorldTrade Organizationagreement.Thereisarighttopreventothersusingyourtrademarkbutthat doesnottranslateintoarighttouseyourowntrademark.[118] TheInstitutesargumentswerealsocomprehensivelyrebuttedinaseminarorganisedbythe IntellectualPropertyResearchInstituteofAustralia.[119]Asexplainedattheseminarandexpanded oninanarticleintheAustralianIntellectualPropertyLawBulletin,governmentsarepermittedto amendtheirintellectualpropertylawstoprotectpublichealth.Plainpackagingdoesnotequateto acquiringtheintellectualpropertyoftobaccocompanies.Governmentsdonotintendtousethe logosandtobaccocompanieswillstillmaintainfullrightstotheirlogosandbrandimagery;theywill simplynolongerbeabletousethesemarketingtoolsoncigarettepackages.[120] Inanarticlebyaninvestigativejournalistin2003[121]aspokespersonfortheInstituteofPublic AffairswasreportedasconfirmingthattheInstitutereceivedfundingfromBritishAmericanTobacco andPhilipMorris.[122] Thedraftlegislationproposesthatintheevent(whichtheGovernmentconsidersunlikely)that preventingtheuseoftrademarksisfoundtobecontrarytoSection51(xxxi)oftheConstitution, thentrademarkswouldbeallowedbutwouldhavetoconformtorestrictions(forinstanceonsize andplacement)thatwouldbespecifiedinregulations.

7.4 Has been considered and the idea abandoned in other countries
TheideaofplainpackagingwasfirstconceivedinCanadainthelate1980saftertobaccocontrol groupsconsideredtestimonyinalegalchallengetoCanadianlegislationbanningtobaccoadvertising duringwhichanImperialTobaccoexecutiveagreedthatsmokersweregenerallyunableto discriminatebetweenbrandswhenblindtestedandthatpackagingwasvital.[123] Itsverydifficultforpeopletodiscriminateblindtested.Putitinapackageandputaname onit,thenithasalotofproductcharacteristics(p1).[123] ThiscorroboratedanearliercommentmadebyaBritishAmericanTobaccoofficialthatoneofevery twosmokersisnotabletodistinguishinblind(masked)testsbetweensimilarcigarettesformost smokersandthedecisivegroupofnew,youngersmokers,theconsumerschoiceisdictatedmoreby psychological,imagefactorsthanbyrelativelyminordifferencesinsmokingcharacteristics (p5).[124] Proposalsforplainpackagingwereputtoandconsideredbygovernmentsonseveraloccasionsover thefollowingtwodecades x .Oneachoccasiontheproposalshavebeenvigorouslyopposedwithdire warningsaboutlegalaction.AmajorreportbyCanadiangroupPhysiciansforaSmokefreeCanada hasdocumentedextensiveinformationabouteffortsbythetobaccoindustrytopursuethe
x

SeeTimelinebyPhysiciansforaSmokefreeCanada,Hhttp://www.smokefree.ca/plain packaging/history.htmH

22

trademarkissueasakeyplankofaglobalstrategytoopposeplainpackaging.[125]Whilethis strategywassuccessfulinforestallinglegislationinNewZealandin1993andCanadaandAustraliain 1995,thereportnotes... WhatthecompaniesdidnottelltheAustralianSenatewasthat2yearspreviouslytheyhad soughtandreceivedadvicethattheyhadnobasisforanylegalchallengeandthatthe Britishgovernmenthadtoldthemtheydidnothaveacase.Nordidtheymentionthattheir argumentshadbeensoundlyrefutedbyWIPOonlymonthsearlier.(p23)[125] Forthefullanalysis,seehttp://www.smokefree.ca/plain packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaimsjune2009a4.pdf Inthewakeofincreasedscrutinyoftheselegalarguments[125]andfollowingtheAustralian Governmentsannouncements,severalcountriesarereexaminingproposalsforplainpackaging. InNovember2011theUKHealthSecretaryAndrewLansleyissuedapolicydocumentsuggesting thatthegovernmentwilllookatwhethertheplainpackagingoftobaccoproductscouldbean effectivewaytoreducethenumberofyoungpeopletakingupsmokingandtohelpthosewhoare tryingtoquitsmoking.[126]On9March2011,theUKgovernmentreleasedatobaccocontrolplan whichrepeateditsstatementofintentiontoconsiderplainpackaging.HealthyLives,HealthyPeople: ATobaccoControlPlanforEngland[127] Wewillconsultonoptionstoreducethepromotionalimpactoftobaccopackaging, includingplainpackaging,beforetheendof2011.[127]p22 InitsresponsetothereportoftheMaoriAffairsCommitteewhichsomemonthspreviouslyhad recommendedplainpackaging,[128]theNewZealandGovernmentstatedonthe14thMarch2011: TheGovernmentismonitoringAustraliasprogressonitsproposaltolegislateforplain packagingoftobaccoproductsin2012,andwillconsiderthepossibilityofNewZealand aligningwithAustralia.NewZealandGovernmentofficialshavecommenceddiscussionswith respectiveAustraliancounterpartsonthepossiblealignment.Aninitialreportbackto Cabinetisdueby30June2011.[129]p.78 Belgium'sHealthMinisterhasalsorecentlyexpressedsupportforplainpackaging.Inresponsetoa questioninparliamenthestated: Withplainpackaging,onlythebrandnameisdisplayedinastandardformat.Theimpactof suchlabellingtoreducetheattractiveness[130]andincreasetheimpactofhealthwarning messages,especiallyforyoungnewsmokers,hasbeenshowninseveralstudies....Icontinue tosupportsuchmeasures,includingattheEuropeanlevel.(unofficialtranslation)Transcript ofremarks[131] AndinDecember2010Frenchparliamentarian,YvesBur,introducedabilltoimplementplain packaging.[132]

7.5 Will reduce price and competition in the tobacco market

TheDeloitteinternationalreport[99]providesausefulreviewofthereportscommissionedonthis topicbyPhilipMorrisandJapanTobaccoInternational.ThePhilipMorrissponsoredstudybyLECG consultingconcludedthatplainpackagingwillleadtopricecompetitionandasaresultlowerprices acrossthewholemarket.[133]Thiswouldoccurduetoreducedproductdifferentiationandthe entryofunbrandedproducts.TheEuropeEconomicsstudybycontrastpredictedthatpriceswould fallonlyforpremiumbrands,withgrowingandnichebrandslikelytobehitthehardest.Little informationisavailableinternationallyaboutwhathappenstoconsumptionoftobaccoproducts whenpricesfall.Thishasbeenarareoccurrenceoverthepastfourdecades.LECGsestimateofan increaseofbetween2.6%and16.6%insales(assuminga4.8%to19.2%fallinprices)appearstobe assumingpricesensitivityofbetween+0.54and+0.86%.Thisissubstantiallyhigherthanthe 23

acceptedestimatesofpricessensitivityintheeventofpriceincreaseswhichrangebetweenabout 0.3and0.5%[134]andwouldappeartobeanestimatebasedonbrandshiftingratherthanthe likelyeffectsacrossawholemarket.Thatis,whileitisplausiblethatsalesofaparticularbrandmight increaseby3%ifitbecomes5%cheaperandifitscompetitorsremainatthesameprice,itdoesnot followthatsalesofallproductswouldincreaseby5%ifallproductsbecame3%cheaper.Thisis particularlysoinanenvironmentwhichincreasinglylimitsopportunitiesforsmoking.Reductionsin pricesarelikelytobemostsevereinpremiumbrandswhicharecommonlysmokedbylessprice sensitivesmokers.TheEuropeEconomicsstudy[135]concludedthatwhiletheshorttermimpact waslikelytobelowerprices,inthelongertermpricescouldincreaseasmarketpowerandlossof innovationeffectsbegantodominateDeloitte[99]p42. Whateverhappens,asDeloitteacknowledges,pricereductionscouldeasilybeoffsetbythe Governmentfurtherincreasingexciseandcustomsdutiesontobaccoproducts.

7.6 Will facilitate illicit trade

Severalcompanieshavearguedthatplainpackagingwouldfacilitateillicittradeandincreaseuseof illicitproductsamongminors.[91] Betweenthe20thandearlyMay2011theAllianceofAustralianRetailers(AAR)ranA4sized advertisementsinseveralAustraliannewspaperswarningthatillicittobaccoproductswerebeing smokedbychildrenasyoungas14yearsold;that15.9%oftobaccoproductsusedinAustraliaare illicit(thatisproductsonwhichneitherexciseorcustomsdutyhasbeenpaid);andthatrevenue forgoneontheseproductswouldamounttoover$1.1bseeFigure8. The claims about teenage smoking are based on data from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey[136]whichfoundin2007that4.5%ofteenagersaged14to19yearsreportedhavingever triedillicittobaccoproducts.Itshouldbenotedhoweverthatfewerthan1%(+/50%)indicatedthat theyusedithalfthetimeormore.Thefiguresquotedinthereportrelateto1419yearoldsasa group. Prevalence of use for teenagers of each age (14, 15, 16 and so on) cannot be determined fromexaminationofthereport.Detailedexaminationofthedatafileonwhichthereportwasbased howevershowsthatonly1.2%of14yearoldsreportedeverhavingtriedunbrandedloosetobacco. Most importantly, examination of that file reveals that no 14yearolds at all reported currently smokingunbrandedloosetobacco. NotonlyistheclaiminthefirstoftheadvertisementsdepictedinFigure8outrightlyfalse,itisalso disingenuous.Salesofcigarettestoschoolchildrenhavecertainlydeclinedoverthelast20years, howeveritisnotablethatin2008almost12%ofstudentsaged12to15yearswhoregularly smoked,reportedthattheyacquiredtheirlastpacketofcigarettesbypurchasingitfromaretailer suchasasupermarket,milkbar,petrolstationorconveniencestorei.e.oneofthesortsofstores thattheAARrepresents!Almost15%of14yearoldsreportedthatitwouldbeeasyorveryeasy forthemtobuycigarettesfromsuchretailers.[137] TheestimateoftheproportionoftobaccoproductsusedinAustraliathatareillegal(usedinthe secondadvertisementdepictedinFigure8)isbasedonareportpreparedforthethreemajor tobaccocompaniesbyDeloitte,[138]areportwhichhasbeenheavilycriticisedbyseveralpublic healthspecialistswhoarguethatitissimplynotcrediblethatoneineverysevencigarettesin Australiacomesoutofanunmarkedplasticbag.Theresponseratesforthesurveyonwhichthe reportisbasedappearstobeonlyaround25%,substantiallylowerthantheveryhighpercentagesof peoplewhotypicallyagreetotakepartinsurveyssponsoredbygovernmentorcharitableagencies. Thetotalestimatedamountoftobaccosmokedappearstobecalculatedbylookingattheamount purchasedbythosewhoexclusivelysmokeillicittobaccoandapplyingthisfiguretoallusers.And yetresultsoftheNationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyindicatethatmostpeoplewhohaveever usedillicittobaccoproductsnolongerusethem,andmanythatdostillusethemonlyusethem occasionally.WhiletheDeloitteestimatesoftheaveragequantityofillicittobaccousedaresuch 24

thatall(100%)ofthe15.7%ofsmokerswhopurchasedillicittobaccointhelastyearwereusingon average25illicitcigaretteseachdayfor365daysoftheyear,theGovernmentsNationalDrug StrategyHouseholdSurveyin2007[136]foundthatonly0.2%ofAustralians xi thatequatesto1.2% ofcurrentsmokersusedillicittobaccoproductshalfthetimeormore.Evenallowingforillicitusers smokingsomewhatmorethanaverage,thiswouldmakeillicittobaccoabout23%ofthetotal marketsubstantiallylowerthanthe15.9%beingtoutedbyBATandtheAllianceofAustralian Retailers.

xi

RefertoTable4.2onpage26ofthereportatHhttp://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/10674H

25

Figure 8 Advertisements placed in Melbourne Age and other Australian newspapers, 20th April to early May 2011

26

ThethirdAARadvertisementshowninFigure8statesthat$1.12boffederaltobaccoexcisetax revenuewaslostbecauseorganisedcriminalnetworkssmuggledandsoldillegaltobaccoincluding counterfeitcigarettes.BasedondatafromtheNationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyaboutthe frequencyofuseamongthosewhostilluseunbrandedtobaccoproducts,therevenueforgone wouldbemorelike$100m.TheDeloittereportfromwhichthisestimateisdrawnindicatedthat peoplesmokingchopchopandotherunbrandedtobaccoproductswerenolongerbuyingitfrom localmarketsashadbeenthecasesomeyearsago,butwerenowpredominantlybuyingitfrom ordinarytobaccoretailers.Norespondentstothesurveyreportedpurchasingproductfrominformal dealers;70%ofrespondentsreportedthattheypurchasedillicittobaccoordinaryretailersincluding thosetheAARrepresentsand,mostfrequently,specialisttobacconists(50%)seeFigure9.Ifuseof illicittobaccoisaswidespreadasthetobaccoindustryclaims,thenAustralianretailersincluding thoserepresentedbytheAARmustbepurchasingatleast12%oftheproductstheysellfrom criminalgangs.

Source: report by Deloitte. commissioned by BATA Ltd, Philip Morris Ltd and Imperial Tobacco Australia Ltd, Supply of Illicit Tobacco, 2011, p22

DraftlegislationreleasedbytheAustralianGovernment[75]specifiesthatanticounterfeiting measureswouldbeallowedonpacksincludingalphanumericcodes,covertmarkingsandforensic leveldifferentiationofthecontentofthecardboardandothermaterial.

27

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