(PDF) Goodridge, JD (1996) Comments on "Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming including Natural Variability" . Bull, Amer. Meteorological Society 77:1588-1599
Original Title
(PDF) 1996_Goodridge_-_Comments on Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming Including Natural Variability
(PDF) Goodridge, JD (1996) Comments on "Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming including Natural Variability" . Bull, Amer. Meteorological Society 77:1588-1599
(PDF) Goodridge, JD (1996) Comments on "Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming including Natural Variability" . Bull, Amer. Meteorological Society 77:1588-1599
In conclusion, it seems ironic that reservations con-
cerning the desirability of describing, quantitatively,
the uncertainty inherent in forecasts of precipitation occurrence have arisen in the operational forecasting community at a time when the numerical weather pre- diction community has at last recognized the need to quantify the uncertainty in numerical model output and is now hard at work developing and refining meth- ods of ensemble forecasting with this goal in mind (e.g., Tracton and Kalnay 1993; Brooks et al. 1995). References Brooks, H. E., M. S. Tracton, D. 1. Strensrud, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth, 1995: Short-range ensemble forecasting: Report from a workshop, 25-27 July 1994. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1617-1624. Curtis. J. c., 1995: Comments on "Operational omission and misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc" 76.1812-1813. Epstein, E. S., 1985: Statistical inference and prediction in eii- matology: A Bayesian approach. Meteor. Monogr" No. 42, Arner. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp. Comments on "Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming Including Natural Variability" The easiest analysis of trends in average annual temperature is to calculate a simple arithmetic aver- age of the readily available records. When this pro- cedure is used, thermally polluted records taint the better temperature records all in one direction. When temperature records are examined individually, the forces affecting long-termtrends at individual stations become apparent. These influences include those of sea surface temperature from adjacent water bodies and the urban heat island. Chief among the forces acting on California tem- perature trends is urban waste heat. In California the rate of increase in temperature commonly attributed to greenhouse warming was 3.14'F century-I for 29 stations located in counties with over one million people and 0.04'F century-I for 27 stations located in counties with fewer than 0.1 million people (see Fig. I). Long-term temperature trends are clearly a func- tion of urban population density. There are few tem- perature-measuring stations located in places with no heated buildings, pavement, or night lights in their 1588 France, W. C., 1995: Comment!'. on "Operational omission and misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,1814-1815. Fritsch, 1. M., and R. L. Vislocky, 1995a: Reply. Part r. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,1813-1814. --, and--, 1995b: Reply. Part II. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,1815-1816. Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler, 1980: Misinterpretations ofprecipilation probability forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61, 695-701. Sink, S. A., 1995: Determining the public's understanding of pre- cipitation forecasts: Results of a survey. Nat!. Wea. Dig., 19, 9-15. Tracton, M.S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble pre- diction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical as- pects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398. Vislocky, R. L., J. M. Fritsch, and S. N. DiRienzo, 1995: Opera- tional omission and misuse of numerical precipitation prob- ability expressions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 49-52. Winkler, R. L., 1972: Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 563 pp. ALLAN H. MURPHY PREDICTION AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS CORVALLIS, OREGON GLOBAL WARMING An Urban Phenomenom in California Temperature Trends at 107 Statons for 1909 to 1994. Stralified by 1990 Population of the County where station is located e<i-,-------------, l'il9J951D<) y _ 1.0406 + Large -- Mote ,I"", [ Million People Averag< of 29 St.,iu", Mid,i'edCountie, -- 1(1{I' lo I Millio" People Averngl'uf.ll Sl"'C"" y _ 08,389 .004()5x. Sm,"1 (:o""';e, --- i.e" Than lUOK People -II.t+-l-&lCyf,ihleffi;-j Average of 27 51000"-' Year Fig. 1. Apparent global warming will not be understood except by decomposing the datasets into individual station records and evaluating the long-term trends of each record separately. The apparent "global warming" is in reality urban waste heat affecting only urban areas. Vol. 77, No.7, July 1996 t t view shed. Station exposures that approach this ideal do not reflect "greenhouse warming." It was suggested that California's temperature records were unique and that these results apply only to California; however, the same relationship oflong-term temperature trend and urban population density was also found in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. It appears that Kim and North (1995) refer to trends in the world's urban areas where the temperature is commonly measured. Reply Urbanization indeed is an important source oflong- term temperature rise at populated regions. The fig- ure shown by Goodridge makes a point that the rate of increase in temperature can significantly differ between data taken from populated counties and that from small counties in California. Therefore. regional assessment of greenhouse warming should account for this important effect. The Jones dataset we use represents the surface temperature averaged over 5 x 5 boxes on the earth. Measurements from various sources were used for this average. Data from different sources should first be corrected for bias resulting from different sampling conditions and techniques, among other things. Such corrections include adjusting data with obvious urban- ization effects (Jones et al. 1986). Therefore, it is not likely that urbanization contributes significantly to the warming trend shown in our article. The two test sites representing the ocean (l50 0 W, 0) and land (90 0 E, SOON) are fairly removed from any industrialization. Temperature records at these sites, nevertheless, show warming trends of 0.26and 0.90century-l, respec- tively. On the other hand, a Texas coastal site, closer to large cities than the previous two sites, shows a Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society References Kim, K.-Y., and G. R. North, 1995: Regional simulations of greenhouse warming including natural variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 2171-2178. JAMES D. GOODRIDGE MENDOCINO, CALIFORr\IA negative trend. Further, considering the small area of significant urbanization compared to the total global area, local urbanization will not seriously contribute to the warming in the global average temperature. Therefore, it is our opinion that the warming trends in our article are due mainly to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Undoubtedly, the urban heat effect cannot com- pletely be removed from data and will result in a bias toward a greater warming. It should be borne in mind that certain local temperature records could reflect warming due more to the increase of urban popula- tion density than to greenhouse warming. We thank Goodridge for pointing this out. References Jones, P. D., S. C. B. Raper. R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, P. M. Kelly. and T. M. L. Wigley. 1986: Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations, 1851-1984.1. Climate Appl. Meteor.. 25, 161-179. KWANG-Y. KIM TEXAS A&M UNIVERSrrY COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS 1589 ! I "
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