Professional Documents
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Why Do You Invest Money? .................................................................................3 Investment Choices ..............................................................................................5 The Winning Edge ................................................................................................6 Definition ...........................................................................................................6 Impact on Portfolio Value ..................................................................................6 Impact on Risk ................................................................................................10 Conclusions.....................................................................................................14 Key Components.............................................................................................14 Money Management Guidelines .........................................................................15 Emotional Tolerance for Losses ..................................................................15 Financial Capability......................................................................................16 Sticking To Your Trading Methodology ........................................................16 Selection Criteria.................................................................................................17 Specific Entry and Exit Rules ..............................................................................18 High Velocity Turnover........................................................................................19 The Perils of Forecasting ....................................................................................20 Summary ............................................................................................................20
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Introduction
Dear Trader, Welcome to the The Profit Button: The 4 Simple Steps Successful Traders Know That YOU DONT. Before you continue, I urge you to print out this report. Ive found that its much easier to read and re-read these digital reports when theyre printed out and you dont want to miss a word of what Im about to reveal? Why? Because the information contained in this report is profound. And Im not just saying that because I wrote it. Seriously, I wish I had had the information in this report when I was a beginner at trading. It would have saved me years and years of study and mistakes. Im excited for you that youre reading this now. Are your ready to begin? Lets get started
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successful traders followed a very specific set of rules when it came to trading or investing their portfolios. These rules gave them a Winning Edge that they could use over and over again to tilt the odds in their favor. And after much trial and error, I discovered how to apply this winning edge to my trading, too. Specifically, I found that there are 4 steps, or components, to a winning edge. And when theyre used together, synergistically, its almost like having a big red Profit Button that you can press again and again, for the rest of your life; hence the name of this report. Now, you might think the idea of a big red Profit Button is a bit far-fetched, and youre right. However, applying the 4 steps youll discover in this report to your trading is about as close as youll ever come to that mythical button, in my experience. Oh, and by the way these 4 steps dont just apply to trading the markets. They can apply to any type of investment real estate, businesses, even fine art. Theyre universal by nature. So first, Ill dive in to how most people attempt to invest their money, and why its a losers game. Then, Ill reveal the 4 steps to creating a Winning Edge with your trading that can help you build your very own Profit Button.
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Investment Choices
There are many different investment vehicles to choose from. The key to making the right choice is to select an investment vehicle along with an investment methodology that has the potential to deliver the financial returns necessary to meet your goals. For example, if your goal requires a 20% per year rate of return, buying high grade bonds yielding 6% per year would not be appropriate. On the other hand, if low risk is more important to achieving your goal than high returns, high grade bonds may be just the thing for you. Real estate has proven to be an excellent long term investment capable of producing passive income along the way. Through rental properties, rehabbing, and land development, there are a variety of ways to invest in real estate, but these are only good choices if they align with your investment goals. And of course, there are down cycles as well, making real estate investing from being risk-free. Then there are stocks: small caps, mid caps, large caps, techs, etc. With stocks, you can tailor your investment strategy to align with your goals a diversified portfolio of high to low risk stocks, a short-term oriented stock trading portfolio, or a buy and hold long-term mutual fund portfolio just to name a few. There are probably as many strategies to investing and trading the stock market as there are stocks to invest in. Whether your investment choices include bonds, real estate, or stocks, in order to be successful in the long run you must have a Winning Edge that you can leverage over and over again. In this report, youll learn in detail what it means to have a Winning Edge, including a comprehensive definition, the implications of returns versus risk, and its key components. The discussion will focus on the Winning Edge as it applies to stock trading, and hopefully will assist you in determining if you currently have a Winning Edge in your own personal stock trading strategy.
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Now lets examine a chart of the S&P500 from 1950 to 2001 (Figure 2). As you can see, if your strategy was to buy and hold the basket of S&P500 stocks from 1950, your portfolio could show a net gain of about 9% per year. Therefore, this strategy exhibits characteristics of a Winning Edge.
S&P500
1950
2002
Figure 2
Likewise, if you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 to 2001 (Figure 3), you see again that if your strategy was to buy and hold the Dow Jones stocks from 1900, your portfolio could show a net gain of about 6% per year. This, too, exhibits Winning Edge characteristics.
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1900
2001
Figure 3
Here is a look at the NASDAQ composite from 1978 to 2001 (Figure 4). Again, a buy and hold strategy exhibits Winning Edge characteristics.
NASDAQ
1978
2002
Figure 4
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While a buy and hold strategy could have produced approximately 6 to 13% per year return in the previous examples, this strategy requires that you never sell while somehow replicating the index performance in your portfolio. Neither of those factors is very likely to occur in the real world, which calls into question the robustness of a buy and hold strategy. It becomes apparent that some level of stock or mutual fund trading may be required in the real world if you are to attempt to increase the value of your stock portfolio over time. Lets look at a few scenarios. Figure 5a shows the portfolio value over time of a short-term stock trader who has occasional successes, but ends up giving back profits in subsequent trades with no net profit when all is said and done. This tends to be the experience of traders who trade without discipline and without rules in other words, without a Winning Edge. Of course, such a trader could do even worse by consistently losing money over time as shown in Figure 5b. Figure 1, on the other hand, shows the kind of results you would expect from a trader using a strategy with a Winning Edge.
0% / yr
a.
Time
-xx% / yr
b.
Time
Figure 5
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Impact on Risk
There are many ways to define risk from highly technical statistics to very simplistic statements. I prefer to define risk in terms of what happens to my trading position that I dont like. For example, I dont like it when my portfolio suffers a drawdown (loses money), and I dont like waiting to recover my losses so I can break even. Both of those occurrences represent risk to me and my portfolio. So it should not be surprising that my definition of risk includes both of those elements (Figure 6).
Risk
$
% drawdown
time to breakeven
Time
Figure 6
Percent drawdown: The amount lost from the previous peak portfolio value. Time to break even: The opportunity cost of lost trading opportunities. With this straightforward definition, it becomes easy to evaluate the level of risk inherent in various strategies. Take a look at Figure 7, which shows the S&P500 from 1950 to 2001. What would be the level of risk for the buy and hold strategy discussed earlier? By simply examining the graph, you can see that the time to break even took 7 years from 1973 to 1980, and during that period, the percent drawdown was 48%. Since 1956, there were five other drawdown periods ranging from one and half to four years. While not as severe as 1973 to 1980, the percent drawdown was still very significant, from a low of 16% to a high of 39%.
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S&P500
f.
$
d. b. a. c.
e.
1950
2002
Figure 7
S&P 500 Risk Assessment Period 1956 1958 1969 1973 1973 1980 1981 1982 1987 1989 2000 2007 2007 ? Time to Break Even 2 years 4 years 7 years 1.5 years 2 years 7 years 1 year & counting Percent Drawdown 16% 35% 48% 29% 36% 51% 20% so far
a. b. c. d. e. f. g.
A key question you should ask is how long will it take the most recent bear market to break even? As of this writing, the time to break even is one year and counting. The answer will only be known over time it could be within the next year or could be as long as 7 years as was the case from 1973 to 1980, and again from 2000 to 2007. Reviewing Figure 8 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 to 2001 the following risk assessment for a buy and hold strategy can be made:
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$
d.
a.
b. c.
1900
2001
Figure 8
DJIA Risk Assessment Period 1904 1919 1920 1925 1929 1954 1965 1983 2000 - 2006 2007 ? Time to Break Even 15 years 5 years 25 years 18 years 5 years 1 year & counting Percent Drawdown 48% 36% 89% 37% 39% 18% so far
a. b. c. d. e. f.
As you can see from this data, time to break even was extensive in the first half of the Twentieth Century. Likewise, a review of Figure 9 for the NASDAQ index from 1978 to 2001 indicates the following risk levels for a buy and hold strategy:
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NASDAQ
d.
1978
2002
Figure 9
NASDAQ Risk Assessment Period 1981 1982 1983 1985 1987 1991 2000 - ? Time to Break Even 1.5 years 2 years 4.5 years 8 years and counting Percent Drawdown 29% 32% 37% 83% so far
a. b. c. d.
While the buy and hold strategy technically has a Winning Edge, the preceding analysis shows that adhering to this strategy would have required uncommon resolve and patience to endure years, sometimes decades, of time to break even and near-catastrophic percent drawdowns. The stock trader who trades without a Winning Edge fairs even worse, as you can see from Figure 5a where the time to break even and percent drawdown are in a repetitive pattern that lead nowhere. Worse still is Figure 5b, where the time to break even is infinite with percent drawdowns approaching 100%.
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Contrast that level of risk with a stock trader who trades with a Winning Edge methodology. As Figure 1 shows, ideally he experiences relatively short time to break even periods with modest drawdowns. This trader is obviously the one to emulate!
Conclusions
The conclusion from reviewing this information suggests that in order to be successful, your strategy must indeed have a Winning Edge. Furthermore, your strategy must exhibit risk levels within your risk tolerance and be consistent with your goals, and why you are investing money.
Key Components
You should now have a good understanding of how a Winning Edge impacts returns and risk. Its now time to dive deeper into how to potentially achieve a Winning Edge. Remember, I defined a Winning Edge as an investment methodology that has the potential to produce net profits or positive returns over time. Here are the four key steps that are required: 1. Money Management Guidelines 2. Selection Criteria 3. Specific Entry and Exit Rules 4. High Velocity Turnover The absence of any one of these components will dramatically reduce, or even eliminate, your chances of achieving a Winning Edge. Now that you see what steps make up our Profit Button, lets have a look at each one of these components in detail.
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Financial Capability
Financial capability is simply about assuring that given the funds you have available for trading purposes that you do not over-commit to any one transaction or position where an adverse outcome would impair or eliminate your ability to continue trading the methodology.* Suppose your methodology has a Winning Edge which produces three out of four winners and an average gain and loss per trade of 8%. Suppose further that the maximum loss per trade is 30%, only happens infrequently, but it does happen. This is a great methodology, but only if you use sound money management rules. If you had the misfortune of investing all your funds in one stock trade that lost 30%, you would require an almost 43% gain in your portfolio value just to get back to break even. A far better approach is to allocate your funds equally among five to ten positions where a 30% loser has only a 6% to 3% impact on your portfolio. Or, the simplest and possibly most effective approach is to never risk more than 2% of your account size on any one position. Risk here means the maximum amount you would lose on the position.
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Selection Criteria
The second component to a Winning Edge system is to develop a set of criteria that must be met in order to consider taking a position in any given investment vehicle. For stock trading, this would be your criteria for selecting which stocks to consider for long or short positions. If the criteria are not met in any way, you should simply pass on that stock and go on to the next. Stock selection criteria can typically be based on fundamental analysis (earnings performance, industry group strength, etc.), technical analysis (price patterns, support and resistance levels, etc.), or both. Whatever the basis, the criteria should be very demanding so that only the best trading opportunities emerge. For example, for every 2000 stocks, 100 could be selected by using fundamental criteria. Then, by applying technical analysis, orders for two stock trades could actually placed, expecting only one of those to following through with market action that triggers the order. The ratios look like this: Stocks Scanned 2000 Stocks Selected 100 Orders Placed 2 Orders Filled 1
By using a very demanding set of criteria, you could potentially increase the odds of having a winning trade. For fundamental criteria, I highly recommend Investors Business Dailys fundamental data which is available for every stock traded on the major exchanges. Remember, just because a stock meets demanding fundamental criteria doesnt mean its a good stock to trade. Rather, you must be patient and wait for market conditions to align consistent with your trading system rules before pulling the trigger.
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70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1 year Time
10%
% 10
y er ev
on 2m
th s
46%
ry 3 eve s nth mo
ery 10% ev
s 6 month
10% every 12
months
10%
For example, a 10% return that takes one year will yield a 10% annualized rate of return. On the other hand, a 10% return that takes one month will yield a 120% annualized rate of return. In the first case, it takes one year to get your money back, whereas in the second case it only takes a month. Both cases return your money with a 10% return, but the second case has a dramatically higher velocity (120% annualized rate of return).
Figure 10
This is why high velocity and short-term trading can be such important components of a Winning Edge and why significantly higher rates of return can potentially be achieved compared to traditional buy and hold strategies. Figure 10 shows the power of high velocity trading.*
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Summary
Lets do a brief review of what was discussed. I talked about the importance of understanding why you invest money and what your goals are in that regard. I noted that there are several investment vehicles to choose from such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. Then, a powerful concept called the Winning Edge was introduced. The performance of a buy and hold approach was looked at by analyzing the historical stock index charts in terms of rate of return and risk as defined by time to break even and percent drawdown. And finally you saw how I believe the short-term stock trader with a Winning Edge had the potential to outperform the buy and hold strategy in both rate of return and assumed risk. Most trading methods do NOT have a Winning Edge. However, all of the trading methods I teach my students DO have a Winning Edge, and a whole lot more. So now you should have a basic understanding of how to construct your own Profit Button, made up of the 4 key steps or components of a Winning Edge. You can do what I did, and spend the better part of your life trying invent your own or, you can test drive a step-by-step home study course that already has all the components discussed in this report built-in and practically set to auto-pilot once you master the method. Keep reading to learn more
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This is the home study course thats the culmination of my lifes work trading the markets. I am extremely proud of this product. In it, I reveal the step-by-step methods and techniques you can use to potentially pull profits out of any market, and any time frame. That means that you can use it to trade stocks, futures, forex whatever you like! And, you can use it to trade after the market closes, or during market hours in whatever time frame you desire 5 minute bars, 30 minute bars, 1 hour bars whatever you like! Its so flexible some traders like to call it their Market Monkey Wrench.
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Trade the stock, futures, and forex markets like a seasoned professional by controlling risk and keeping losses to a minimum. Use a step-by-step, technical analysis method to consistently trade with confidence. There's no second guessing entry and exit points, because my method makes this AUTOMATIC, which should give you PEACE OF MIND. Create a regular, systematic trading routine that you can follow WITH CONFIDENCE. Shatter the self-sabotaging trading myths, dogma, and just plain CRAP that I believe 95% of traders in the world blindly follow... and emerge with clarity about trading you never thought was possible. Enjoy peace-of-mind knowing that you have a trading course that my students have called, "too unbelievable, a tremendous service, a realistic approach, great teaching, disciplined, and an affordable price", just to name a few. ...and much, much more!
I learned the hard way that while it is possible to profit from the markets trading correctly, it is a near certainty that you will lose money trading incorrectly. I
Copyright Profits Run, Inc. Page 22 of 31 Rev #12-20080411
discovered that most traders sabotage their own success by falsely believing in some commonly-held "myths". Keep reading to find out how you, too, can learn my TRADING SECRETS, and possibly have your own BREAKTHROUGH moment. But first, here are the Top 5 Myths that are getting in the way of YOUR success. If you truly understand these, you'll be FAR ahead of everyone else.
It's True! Instant Profits Lets You Trade Where And When You're Most Comfortable
The true power of Instant Profits is that it lets you choose which time frames and which markets to trade. For example, you might like day trading 5-minute bars. Or that might be too active and you prefer to trade weekly charts instead. You might feel most comfortable trading technology stocks on a daily basis. Or, maybe you just love options. Whatever your preference, I designed Instant Profits for use in any time frame and in any market. This is a big deal because most trading methods are limited to a single time frame or a single market. And most trading methods are written for experienced traders that leaves the beginners out in the cold wondering what's going on I honestly don't want you to purchase Instant Profits if you're not going to be successful with it. That's why I included a section for beginners that may help get you up to speed quickly. That's why I include LOTS OF EXAMPLES. That's why there are PLENTY OF ACTION EXERCISES so you can practice what you learn.
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specific setup conditions that are easy to spot once you know the secrets. 3. ENTRY POINT. Once the setup conditions have been met, you'll learn a simple formula that reveals how to place the specific entry order. 4. STOP LOSS POINT. After you enter a trade, the first thing you need to do is protect your position with a stop loss order. This is extremely easy to do, but also extremely important. 5. PROFIT TARGET POINT. After you place the stop loss order, you'll learn to place the profit target order. That's it! I told you it was easy! But I'm sure you're probably asking yourself, OK, so how does this method actually perform? Keep reading to find out. You'll be amazed.
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From the above formula, if the average winning trade equaled the average losing trade and the method wins 50% of the time, the Profit Factor would be 1.00 (see Method A, below). It should be self-evident that no money could be made with this method. The average winning trade must be greater than the average losing trade, the % winners must be greater than the % losers, or both must occur to make money. A method that generates 50% winners and an average winning trade 1.5 times the average losing trade (including commissions and slippage) would have a profit factor of 1.5 (Method B). Or better yet, a method that generates 66% winners and an average winning trade 1.5 times the average losing trade would have a Profit Factor of 3.0 (Method C). Any trader that can consistently achieve a Profit Factor of 1.5 or greater will enjoy great success. A trader that can operate at a Profit Factor of 3.0 could become very wealthy. Method Average Winning Trade Average Losing Trade % Winners % Losers Profit Factor A $1000 $1000 50% 50% 1.00 B $1500 $1000 50% 50% 1.50 C $1500 $1000 66% 34% 3.00
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Now You're "In The Know" And One Of The Elite 5% Of Traders...
Does the above information make sense? If not, go back and read that paragraph again because as soon as you understand it you will be part of the 5% of traders that know how to find a good trading method. Don't be surprised if most traders don't know what you're talking about if you mention Profit Factor. Remember, most traders are amateurs that don't have a clue. I want to change that! And if you've read this far, you've just jumped ahead of the competition! The more I realized how much serious traders would benefit from Instant Profits, the more I put into it. That's why I've spent the last 5 months working on putting this awesome course together, writing the manual, producing the DVD, creating the special Blueprints (which I'll tell you about below), and recording step-by-step screen capture CD-ROM video tutorials
www.instantprofitstoday.com/revealed
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If you have any interest in securing a copy of Instant Profits, I urge you to just go to that page RIGHT NOW. Why? I cant promise that Instant Profits will be available when you get there, because it may not always be for sale. You see, as a student of Instant Profits, you get one year of unlimited email support, so I want to make sure my staff and I are able to answer your questions quickly and accurately. I just dont think it would be fair to sell, say, 5,000 copies of Instant Profits when I know in my heart I couldnt support that many students. So if you go to the web page above, you might see this message:
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If you see that, go ahead and put your name on the waiting list, and Ill notify you when Instant Profits is available again. However, if you DONT see that message, then I urge you to grab a copy of Instant Profits right away, while its still available.
"The results of your method are not as you claimed. They are much better. In a computer simulation of nearly 2000 NYSE & NASDAQ stocks, using daily historical data from Jan 2000 to Nov 2004, I had over 200% of linear (uncompounded) capital gain per year. The compounded gain is too unbelievable to mention! It also works intraday. I have been actively trading for more than 10 years, and your method produces the smoothest upward-moving equity curve I have ever seen. You really should not be giving your method away for this low price (or publicly disclosing it, for that matter). I am glad I bought it before you realize you no longer want to reveal it." --Kean F.* "I followed the Instant Profits setup conditions on the $SPX and placed an order to buy on Friday. I got filled on Monday. I then placed another order to sell the option, got filled on Wednesday, and made $3,000. Merry Christmas! Thanks for sharing your knowledge with others." --Keith Thompson*
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"Instant Profits allows me to look at the markets through a microscope with great accuracy to consistently make profits. I know to expect losses as a fact, but as of writing this, I'm currently in my 7th profitable trade in a row. Now that's consistency! I would gladly pay five times its current value and I highly recommend it to anyone who is serious about trading." --Ivan Moore* "Your CD tutorial and your website resources are absolutely magnificent. I am very impressed by your entire process and genuine sincerity to make sure I get it. Thank you for your wonderful program." --Richard Ender* "I finished reading Instant Profits today. Just let me tell you that I could hardly sleep last night (the light bulbs inside my head kept flashing). I have been looking in vain for a good trading method for the past year (and read all the right books) and for the first time I am sure I can make your method work for me on a consistent basis. Thank you so much for sharing your invaluable experience and knowledge." --Al Baeza* "I've been looking for a structured approach for a long time. This is it!" --Bryan Peloquin* "Thanks for an excellent set of instruction materials that I am now profitably applying to all my trading activities." --John Tudor* "I would like to take this occasion to congratulate you on the excellent quality of your manual and CD-ROM. Instant Profits is really a step-by-step, detailed method. Your blueprints are tremendously useful and keep emotions out of the process. The examples are excellent and the whole package is easy to learn with very little
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effort (I'm a beginner with 1 year of trading). Great job, and thanks again." --Stphane Theodoracopoulos* "I honestly think your whole package is the very best. Anyone can use your method for two reasons. One, it works; and two, you give the absolutely best explanations I have seen and the video support is fantastic." --Mike Lombardo* "Thank you for making your technique publically available. It's a tremendous service to the trading community to provide your techniques for sale at an affordable price. In my opinion, doing so requires a generous and trusting spirit." --Rod Armour* "First of all I want to thank you for your honesty, sincerity and for sharing all your knowledge and giving your students so many resources at such a low price! Before I bought Instant Profits, I spent at least $15,000 on all kinds of seminars but I was still losing money! I've lost at least $30,000 trying all what I've learned at the seminars. But after one month from receiving your course I started making money from your method! I made about $2,500 on my first month trading stocks on a daily chart! Isn't that great to make money after all those losses?!" --Yousef Bajjali* "I bought your Instant Profits course and am using your method to trade the Malaysian stock market as well as the Malaysian crude palm oil futures contract. Your method works very well. Profit factor for KLSE shares is 1.6 while for crude palm oil is 1.4." --Bill Wermine*
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"I want to thank you for your course and I'm happy to say that it has more than paid for itself on my first day of trading. It has given me some set patterns and rules to follow now that I did not have before. Thank you for this great teaching, and I'm finally excited about trading again." --Dana Anthony* "Thank you for Instant Profits! It is a very well thought out, disciplined, realistic approach that suits my own trading style very well." --David Butler*
*No representation is being made that these results can or will be obtained in the future, or that losses were not incurred subsequent to the date on which the testimonial was provided. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures, forex, stocks, and options. Only risk capital should be used.
Well, thats it for this report, the 4 Easy Steps to Winning Edge Trading. Dont forget to watch the video examples from my Instant Profits course and check out the long letter I wrote for you. Heres the web page again:
www.instantprofitstoday.com/revealed
Good Trading,
Disclaimer: Stock, forex, Futures, and options trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading these markets. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the information in this special report will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses.
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