THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Massiveenblocsites
Twomassiveenblocsitesthathavebeenputupforsalewillclosewithinamonthstime.233unitFaberGardenin
UpperThomson,believedtobeitsfirstenblocattemptandpresumablyencouragedbythesaleofnearbyThomson
Grandwhichachievedupto$1,564psf,sitsonasprawling544,738sqftoffreeholdlandandownersareaskingfor
$830m.Withagrossplotratioof1.6andanestimateddevelopmentchargeof$31.2m,thefinalpricetagis$988psf
ppr.Ontheotherhand,528unitLagunaParkinMarineParadehasasiteareaof677,493sqftandagenerousplot
ratioof2.8.Reservepriceoftheprojectis$1.25b,marginallylowerthanthepreviousaskingpriceof$1.3binJuly
2011. An estimated development charge of $560m is payable to top up the 99year sites lease. Overall, Laguna
Parksfinalpricetagis$954psfppr.ThelasttimesuchamassivesiteattemptedanenblocsalewasthatofPark
WestCondoinSeptember2011.Itwasnotsuccessful.

There are at least 10 en bloc sites currently out in the market for developers to pick and choose. The last one
successfullysoldwasHongLeongGardensinSeptember2011,whichwaszonedresidentialwithcommercialonfirst
storey.Atasalepriceof$171m,itwasthebiggestenblocsalethisyear.Comparedtothepeakoftheenbloccycle
in2007wheredealsabove$1bweresuccessful,todaysenblocmarketismuchmoremutedwithmanyunsuccessful
attempts, an evidence of a mismatch in price expectations between existing owners and developers. We take a
closerlookatpropertypricesnearFaberGardeninthisreport.

FaberGardensatUpperThomson

Source:URA

Co.RegNo:198700034E
MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

ENBLOC

TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

PropertypricesatUpperThomson
1,600
ThomsonGrand(99yr,TOP2015)
TheGardensatBishan(99yr,TOP2004)
BishanParkCondo(99yrTOP1994)
FaberGardenCondo(FH,TOP1984)

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
01Jan00

07Sep01

15May03

19Jan05

26Sep06

02Jun08

07Feb10

Source:URA

15Oct11

ProjectsintheSinMingareasitonfairlylargelandplotswith233to756residentialunits.FaberGarden
wasdevelopedbyUOL,BishanParkCondobyHongLeongandTheGardensatBishanbyGuocoland.The
latest Thomson Grand is developed by Hong Kongs property giant Cheung Kong. Resale prices of Bishan
Park Condo, completed in 1994 average at $790 psf while units at The Gardens at Bishan, completed in
2004aresellingataveragepriceof$935psf.Medianrentalforcondounitsintheareais$3.22psfpmfor
themonthofSeptember2011,implyingagrossrentalyieldof4.9%and4.1%forBishanParkCondoand
The Gardens at Bishan, respectively. The newly launched Thomson Grand is achieving $1,305 psf on
average,140outofthetotal361unitshavebeensoldsinceitslaunchinJuly2011.

NonlandedrentaldatainSinMingWalk,SinMingAvenue

Sep2011
Aug2011
Jul2011
Jun2011
May2011
Apr2011
Mar2011
Feb2011
Jan2011

Minimum
2.06
2.1
2.51
2.18
2.41
2
2.2
2.11
1.96

Source:URA

Change%
1.9%
16.3%
15.1%
9.5%
20.5%
9.1%
4.3%
7.7%

Median
3.22
3.16
3.19
2.79
3.39
3.02
3.16
2.86
2.67

Change%
1.9%
0.9%
14.3%
17.7%
12.3%
4.4%
10.5%
7.1%

Maximum
3.93
4.24
4.09
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57

Change%
7.3%
3.7%
14.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Selectedenblocsitescurrentlyoutforsale
Tender
close
01Nov
01Nov
10Nov
14Nov
16Nov
22Nov
23Nov
01Dec
06Dec
08Dec

Project
CavenaghGardens
StPatrick'sGarden
PacificMansion
CrystalTower
DragonMansion
FaberGarden
NewtonLodge
HenryPark
LagunaPark
GreenLodge

Tenure
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
99yr
Freehold

Source:KimEng

TOP
1975
1981
1976
1982

1984
1989
1970
1993
1984

GFA
sqft
296,271
192,583
493,227
96,771
112,959
871,581
29,973
139,720
1,896,980
225,041

Reserve
price
$m
480500
188
990
155
150156
830
40
170180
1,250
195

Dev.
Charge
$m

31.2
2.5

560.0

Total
price
$m
480500
188
990
155
150156
861.2
42.5
170180
1,810
195

Price
$psfppr
16201688
976
2,007
1,602
1,3401,392
988
1,418
1,2161,287
954
867

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches
TheHillier(District23)
A development nestled in Hilllview Avenue, a
private residential enclave overlooking Bukit
Timah Hill and the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve.
Features SOHOconcept residences sited above a
commercialpodium.

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are

probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

Recentresaletransactions
Project
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo
BishanParkCondo
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo

Tenure
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr

Contract
month
Oct11
Oct11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Jul11
Jul11
Jul11
Jul11
Jun11

Price
($psf)
963
967
937
997
937
851
921
968
975
778
802
896
963
792
940
929
678
868
682
907
726
763

Source:URA

PropertyStocks
Name
CapitaLand
CityDev
HoBee
HPL
KepLand
SCGlobal
SingLand
UOL
Wheelock
WingTai

Price
2.67
10.26
1.24
2.05
2.67
1.115
5.90
4.40
1.625
1.245

RNAV
3.97
13.27
2.76
4.41
5.25
4.74
10.42
N.A.
N.A.
3.03

Disc/
Prem
to
RNAV
33%
23%
55%
54%
49%
76%
43%
N.A.
N.A.
59%

N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported

Disc/
Premto
NTA/share* NTA/share
3.18
16%
7.18
43%
2.13
42%
2.63
22%
2.72
2%
1.54
28%
10.57
44%
6.39
31%
2.32
30%
2.25
45%

PropertyPriceIndices

Index
SRPIOverall(Sep11)
RESIComposite(2Q11)
URAPPI(3Q11)
HDBResale(3Q11)

Change
+0.1%
0.5
+1.3%
+3.8%

Level
166.2
4.5
205.7
187.2

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites
Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units)
Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m
($323psfppr)
Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road
(86.2ksqm,860units)AwardedtoAllgreenfor$270.3m
($291.4psfppr)
Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355
units) Awarded to Hoi Hup, Sunway and Straits
Constructionfor$141m($361psfppr)
Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390
units)AwardedtoHoLee/UnitedEngineersfor$122m
($291psfppr)
Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Awarded to Koh
Brothersfor$163m($361.2psfppr)
YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725
units) Awarded to MCC Land for $213.8m ($292.6 psf
ppr)

ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender)
Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610
units)Tenderclosingon3November
YishunAve1/MiltoniaClose(35.5ksqm,355units)
Tenderclosingon15November
Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Tender closing
on24November
AlexandraRoad(48.8ksqm,545units)Tenderclosing
on6December
Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed
units)Tenderclosingon8December
Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540
units)Tenderclosingon15December

ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender)
JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units)
BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units)
TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units)
StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units)
StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units)
EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units)
HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units)
SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units)
Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC
(43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA

TheRealDeals3November2011

MARKETSNAPSHOT

Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

PrimaryMarket

SecondaryMarket
Take
up
rate
(%)

Units
sold
(Sep)

Median
($psf)

49

94.2

11

1,679

22.0

2,326

BuckleyClassique
64
50
78.1
Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang(1214)

2,086

138
14
12
29

1,191
1,165
1,091
1,110

Total
no.of
units

No.of
units
soldto
date

City&Southwest(18)
JoolSuites
52
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland(910)
Hijauan
41

District

Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi(11+21)

$psf
Sep11

MoM%
Change

1,470
1,727
1,229
970
1,023
778
918
755
739

1,439
1,713
1,225
989
1,054
786
924
756
727

2.1
0.8
0.3
1.9
2.9
1.0
0.7
0.2
1.7

Euhabitat
748
Suites28
64
Vacanza@East
473
Viento
48
EastCoast(1516)
FlamingoValley
393
ParcElegance
157
TheMeyerise
239
WaterfrontIsle
561
Uber388
95
Vibes@EastCoast
117
Changi/PasirRis(1718)
ArcatTampines
574
Seastrand
473
Waterview
696
Serangoon/Thomson(1920)

560
26
361
42

233
294
563

40.6
62.2
80.9

233
36
11

734
932
854

ATreasureTrove

882

683

77.4

683

915

Top5ResaleTransactionsby$psf

AustvilleResidences
Boathouse
Residences
Bliss@Kovan

540

341

63.1

39

710

Project

CentroResidences
Terrasse
TheLuxurie
TheMinton
ThomsonGrand
RiverparcResidence
Suites@PayaLebar
West(2224)
BlossomResidences
(EC)
North(2528)
TheCanopy
TheMiltonia
Residences
Woodhaven

493

74.9
40.6
76.3
87.5

City&Southwest
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland
Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi
Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang
EastCoast
Changi/PasirRis
Serangoon/Thomson
West
North

$psf
Aug11

183
143
108
489
49
116

46.6
91.1
45.2
87.2
51.6
99.1

10
8
108
9
8
17

1,273
1,198
1,789
1,153
1,391
1,442

276

56.0

86

924

140

32

22.9

32

1,391

329
414
622
1,145
361
504
99

231
308
216
725
140
483
27

70.2
74.4
34.7
63.3
38.8
95.8
27.3

13
18
70
27
18
90
16

1,514
1,008
1,042
894
1,264
685
1,345

602

413

68.6

52

706

406

377

92.9

14

664

410

302

73.7

16

869

337

222

65.9

17

1,049

$psfpm
Aug11

Yield $psfpm Yield

% Sep11
%

City&Southwest
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland

5.3
4.4

4.3
3.1

4.6
4.4

3.9
3.1

Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.4

Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang

3.1

3.8

3.1

3.8

EastCoast

3.1

3.6

3.2

3.7

Changi/PasirRis

2.8

4.3

2.8

4.2

Serangoon/Thomson

2.7

3.5

2.9

3.8

West

2.9

4.6

2.8

4.5

North

2.5

4.1

2.6

4.3

Source:URA

ParkviewEclat
ArdmorePark
PatersonSuites
St.ThomasSuites
St.RegisResidences

Tenure

District

$psf

Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
999yrfr1995

10
10
9
9
10

3,513
3,085
3,000
2,905
2,776

Source:URA

Bottom5ResaleTransactionsby$psf
Project

LakesideTower
SembawangCottage
LakesideApartments
TheSunflower
EliasGreen
Source:URA

RentalMarket
District

Source:URA

Source:URA

Tenure

District

$psf

99yrfr1975
Freehold
99yrfr1977
Freehold
99yrfr1991

22
27
22
14
18

454
514
530
530
584

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer

District
06
09
10
10
11
17
18
18
18
18
19
19
23
23
Sentosa

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee

UOL

Allgreen

Wheelock

TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Landbank
SouthBeach(BeachRoad)
Futura(LeonieRoad)
BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad)
LuckyTower(GrangeRoad)
BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad)
HedgesPark(FloraRoad)
NVResidences(PasirRis)
PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis)
PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis)
Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth
H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve)
BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad)
ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive)
SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad)
ResidencesatW(SentosaCove)
TotalUnsoldUnits

MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay)
Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar)
ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay)
SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare)
TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive)
TotalUnsoldUnits

TheInterlace(GillmanHeights)
UrbanResort(CairnhillRd)
Dleedon(FarrerRd)
TheNassim(NassimRd)
MarinePoint(MarineParade)
BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral)
BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14)
YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd)
TotalUnsoldUnits

SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove)
PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove)
TotalUnsoldUnits

SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark)
BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd)
TotalUnsoldUnits

Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet)
ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad)
RVResidences(RiverValley)
RiverBay(MarThomaRd)
Riviera38(MarThomaRd)
TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad)
TotalUnsoldUnits

ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad)
Ardmore3(ArdmorePark)
TotalUnsoldUnits

01
02
04
04
04
04
19
22

03
09
10
10
15
16
20
26

Sentosa
Sentosa

02
16

02
05
09
12
12
21

09
10

Tenure
99
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
99
99
99
99
Freehold
99
99
99
99
99

99
Freehold
99
99
99
99
99
99

99
Freehold
99
Freehold
Freehold
99
99
Freehold

99
99

Freehold
99

99
Freehold
999
999
999
Freehold

Freehold
Freehold

Unsold
Units
119
122
203
178
22
181
36
752
1,517
605
153
560
490
237
207
5,381

77
620
313
307
234
94
471
24
2,140

351
40
1,280
55
150
469
650
140
3,135

112
357
469

35
640
675

194
80
248
147
102
25
796

91
84
175

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer
Guocoland

BtSembawang

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

District
02
10
26

09
09
09

09
15
16
16
18
18
19
19
19
27

03
09
09
10
10
11
23

10
15
17
19

9
9
9
10
Sentosa

Source:HDB,URA

Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Landbank
Tenure
TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan)
99
LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights)
99
TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd)
Freehold
TotalUnsoldUnits

TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd)
Freehold
PatersonSuites(PatersonRd)
Freehold
StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk)
Freehold
TotalUnsoldUnits

StarHubCentre
99
FlamingoValley(SiglapRd)
Freehold
WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd)
99
WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd)
99
Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3)
99
PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive)
99
BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad)
99
EsparinaResidences(Sengkang)
99
PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral)
99
EightCourtyards(YishunAve2)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits

AscentiaSky(Redhill)
99
HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle)
Freehold
BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk)
Freehold
LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark)
Freehold
Anderson18(ArdmorePark)
Freehold
L'VIV(NewtonRd)
Freehold
ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits

NOBHill(EweBoonRd)
Freehold
CasaNassau(EastCoastRd)
Freehold
PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar)
99
Terrasse(HougangAve2)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits

TheMarq(PatersonHill)
Freehold
Hilltops(CairnhillCircle)
Freehold
MartinNo.38(MartinRd)
Freehold
TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad)
Freehold
SevenPalms(SentosaCove)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits

GrandTotal

TheRealDeals3November2011
Unsold
Units
500
424
40
964

66
24
221
311

240
220
4
81
215
380
291
1
685
141
2,258

47
64
38
42
157
40
299
687

70
65
580
122
837

37
208
23
50
31
349

18,177

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity
AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar
AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown
Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah
BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast
CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad
BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor
LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad
Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley
Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad
Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton
Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh
PotongPasir,Macpherson
Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar
Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu
Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee
Changi,Loyang,PasirRis
PasirRis,Simei,Tampines
Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang
AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson
Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue
BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas
BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah
Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah
Admiralty,Woodlands
Tagore,YioChuKang
Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun
Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

TheRealDeals

3November2011

APPENDIXI:TERMSFORPROVISIONOFREPORT,DISCLOSURES
AND
DISCLAIMERS

Thisreport,andanyelectronicaccesstoit,isrestrictedtoandintendedonlyforclientsofKimEngResearchPte.Ltd.("KER")ora
relatedentitytoKER(asthecasemaybe)whoareinstitutionalinvestors(forthepurposesofboththeSingaporeSecuritiesand
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TheRealDeals

3November2011

Additionalinformationonmentionedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.

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Withoutprejudicetotheforegoing,thereaderistonotethatadditionaldisclaimers,warningsorqualificationsmayapplyifthe
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AnalystCertification:

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthereport.

2011 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be
reproducedordistributedinanymannerwithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofKimEngResearchPte.Ltd.KimEngResearchPte.
Ltd.acceptsnoliabilitywhatsoeverfortheactionsofthirdpartiesinthisrespect.

StephanieWong
CEO,KimEngResearch