Presented at the PIRP Workshop Folsom, CA April 16, 2007

PIRP Solar Forecasting

John W. Zack
AWS Truewind LLC Albany, New York jzack@awstruewind.com

Overview
Solar forecasting issues How solar forecasts could be produced Expected levels of forecast performance Solar vs wind forecasts

Solar Forecast Issues

Solar power production forecasts depend on predictions of solar radiation reaching the solar power generation platforms Solar radiation at top of atmosphere can be easily predicted
Time of day Day of year Location Solar variability not an issue (maybe eclipses which are predictable!)

Amount of radiation reaching the surface depends on the transmissivity of the atmosphere
Good transmissivity forecasts = good solar power production forecasts

Transmissivity Factors
Clouds
Depth Water or ice concentration Types of water particles or ice crystals

Water vapor amount (column) Aerosol type and amount (column)

How to forecast transmissivity?

Use similar tools to wind forecasting Focus on different variables

Integrated Forecast System: eWind

Regional Physics-Based Atmospheric Models Regional Weather Data
MASS MM5 WRF OMEGA

Plant Data Time Series

260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Statistical Models
Multiple Linear Regression Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Support Vector Machines (SVM) etc.
Time

Plant Output Forecast

Off-site met towers

Met Tower Forecast

Plant Output Model

Physical o r St at istical

Data

Hours-ahead Forecasts
Heavily dependent on statistical models Time series of radiation measurement from the plant Off-site measurements
Clouds Solar radiation

Satellite Imagery
Visible Infrared Water vapor channels

Days-ahead Forecasts
Physics-based models are primary tool Model forecasts of transmissivity are the key variable Statistical model used to adjust for systematic model errors

Expected Forecast Performance

What are the expected levels of forecast performance in California? How do they compare to wind forecasts?

Solar Forecast Error Estimates

Based on actual forecasts and measurements of solar radiation in So Cal for June Used to estimate errors for a 15 MW facility
Hour LDT 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Daily Monthly Avg Insolation (W/m2) Note 1 34.98 435.25 707.57 826.63 884.67 924.14 946.46 941.67 935.63 904.98 866.86 796.43 727.78 580.75 273.21 Ins Fcst MAE (W/m2) Note 2 10.78 81.07 59.16 40.01 34.89 32.23 28.31 37.72 41.68 66.04 76.74 121.03 93.68 88.27 65.33 Ins Fcst MAE (%) Gen Fcst MAE % MWh Note 3 Note 4 30.81% 0.140 18.63% 1.055 8.36% 0.770 4.84% 0.521 3.94% 0.454 3.49% 0.419 2.99% 0.368 4.01% 0.491 4.46% 0.542 7.30% 0.859 8.85% 0.999 15.20% 1.575 12.87% 1.219 15.20% 1.149 23.91% 0.850 PIRP GMC US $ Note 5 $0.20 $1.53 $1.12 $0.75 $0.66 $0.61 $0.53 $0.71 $0.79 $1.25 $1.45 $2.28 $1.77 $1.67 $1.23 $16.55

Average 2006 monthly GMC a ~15 MW wind plant in PIRP was about $1,700 (assuming a $1.45 per MWh charge - same as in the solar example)

$496.37

Solar vs Wind Forecasts

Solar energy is generally more predictable than wind energy (especially in CA)
Good solar sites have low cloudiness Forecast errors are small in absence of clouds Good wind sites have high winds => high variability

Satellites provide frequent, high resolution cloud data - the most significant factor affecting solar radiation variability - a big asset for short-term forecasts No data source available to provide high resolution wind data which makes short-term wind forecasting very difficult

Summary
Solar energy is generally more predictable than wind energy, especially in CA The PIRP-eWind system can be easily adapted to produce solar energy forecasts AWST is already working with a developer to develop and test a solar plant output model Solar PIRP forecasts could be operational within a month after a decision is made to implement and operational site data is available There is at least one plant that will need PIRP inclusion ASAP to get efficient project financing