PREDICTIONS WILL MAKE FOOLS OF US ALL

GETTING CLOUD ENABLED

Mobile Europes Insight Report on the what and the how of the cloud

MOBILE
EUROPE
ALSO INSIDE:
BECOME THE ORCHESTRATOR

EUROPES WIRELESS MAGAZINE S issue no. 213 S December 2010/January 2011 S www.mobileeurope.co.uk

> How operators

can use their strengths to provide personalised services.

ADVICE FOR T2 OPERATORS

> Get costs down,

but dont sell yourselves short on pricing.

PREDICTIONS 2011

> What key industry

players are predicting for the year ahead, from LTE to mobile payments.

P7

Mobile Europes

ONES TO WATCH
in 2011

P11

P33

Contents
December2010/January 2011
Ubiquisys marks standards-based femto tie-up with NSN

ONES TO WATCH 2011

SURVEY RESULTS

22 26 33 34 38 40 42 44 46 48

What did you say when we asked you what you thought? Some obvious answers, but some surprising ones too.

ANALYST ROUND UP
Starting with Northstreams Bengt Nordstrom, a look through the analysts predictions for mobile in 2011.

PREDICTIONS 2011
INTRODUCTION TO PREDICTIONS 2011
Its not the profits that are making Steve happy. Its because hes our poll winner...

Keith Dyer explains what this section is all about, and welcomes our contributors on board.

SMALL CELLS FOR LTE

Alcatel Lucent takes on the topic of small cell development in LTE through 2011. Why think small?

REGULARS
EDITORIAL

NFC PAYMENTS AND MOBILE MONEY

Monitises Lee Cameron speaks to Keith Dyer about where NFC payments, and mobile money, will head in 2011.

04 06

Keith Dyer makes some predictions of his own, and thanks you for yours.

NEWS
Operators ready for new role in content and partnerships; Rush to the Policy engine; Standards based femto from Ubiquisys and NSN; Convergent charging on the charge; Akamai prepares mobile web launch for Europe; LSTI role nearly over; Operators warned over traffic management; Strategies for up and coming Challengeroperators; Ericsson IPX joins the TSM game for NFC; Microwave backhaul reaches European peak.

CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT

James Doyle of Arantech outlines how operators can change their CEM strategies to achieve benefits next year.

THE NEED FOR COLLABORATION, AND MORE

Sergio Silvestre of WeDo Technologies says operators need to partner, and also drive internal cooperation.

LTE - WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Jorma Axelsson, Senior Product Line Manager, EXFO NetHawk, on the challenges LTE will present.

DIARY
The events and conferences coming up in the weeks ahead and a quick scoot round some of the lesser noted stories of recent days.

50

CHARGING AND BILLING

Operators will be offered new opportunities to monetise their networks, says Dave Labuda of MATRIXX Software.

INSIGHT REPORT
INTRODUCTION AND FULL CONTENTS
Keith Dyer introduces this issues Insight Report from Michael Knuckey of Cloud Vision. The general topic of cloud services may be much discussed, but what are the elements required to ensure that mobile operators are cloud service enabled?

ROAMING REASSURANCE
Sunil Laroiya squares up to a major headache for 2011 how to make the most of roaming revenues in Europe.

13

MOBILE CLOUD SERVICES - BEING CLOUD ENABLED

Knuckeys report sets out the opportunities for MNOs to step forward to take a leading role as trusted service provider, and details what they need to become Cloud enabled in terms of infrastructure, support systems and strategic partners.

14

Tablets will be part of a huge surge in mobile connections, says Bengt Nordstrom

go to www.mobileeurope.co.uk for the latest information on mobile

Mobile Europe | 3

Comment
editor: keith dyer
Fickle readers, some vague predictions from the editor, and MWC 2011 So we made it to the end of another year, then, you, me and the mobile industry. First of all, a major thanks for this issue goes to you our reader, or readers, if I may be so bold. Because it was you who responded in your vast thousands, well thousand, to our reader survey, allowing us to feed your opinions back to you in this issue, in our Ones to Watch in 2011 feature. The survey we produced covered a fair bit of ground, yet one thing that struck me is that there was precious little diversification of viewpoint, Jobs and Schmidt would be the most important personalities. Google and Apple would have the biggest impact as companies. Vodafone is the dominant operator. We could probably have written this without conducting the survey, and would have saved you your time. Yes, the obvious choices are obvious because they are obvious, but we here at Mobile Europe like covering the vast range of companies that make up this industry, and not just chasing the easy targets over and over. So it was pleasing to see you challenge us on two topics that we have covered a fair bit this year LTE and femtocells. They were listed as the most hyped subjects by our readers, which is fair enough. Mind you, they also featured highly in the field of network investment priorities in 2011. So, the topics are both over-hyped and top of the investment tree. You fickle lot. Some of you took time to write long impassioned pieces about what annoys you currently about the mobile industry. We couldnt possible carry all of that, but thanks for taking the time to do so, and if we have served as some sort of therapeutic service, then all the better.

MOBILE
EUROPE
Editor: Keith Dyer keith.dyer@stjohnpatrick.com Direct tel: +44 (0) 7788 923601 Web editor: Robert Riggs robert.riggs@stjohnpatrick.com Production Manager: Tania King Sales Manager: Shahid Ramzan shahid.ramzan@mobileeurope.co.uk Direct tel: +44 (0) 20 7933 8980 Commercial Director: Justyn Gidley justyn.gidley@stjohnpatrick.com Direct tel: +44 (0) 20 7933 8979 Publishing director: Chris Cooke ISSN: 1350 7362 Free Subscriptions Mobile Europe is a controlled circulation monthly magazine available free to selected personnel at the publishers discretion. If you wish to apply for regular free copies then please write to: Database Services St John Patrick Publishing Ltd PO Box 6009, Thatcham, Berkshire, RG19 4TT. Tel: +44 (0) 1635 879361 Email: mobileeurope@circdata.com or register free online at: www.mobileeurope.co.uk Paid Subscriptions Readers who fall outside the strict terms of control may purchase an annual subscription . UK 1 Year - 96. International 1 Year - 120. Subscription enquiries should be sent to: Saint John Patrick Publishers PO Box 6009, Thatcham, Berkshire RG19 4TT United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1635 879361 Fax: +44 (0) 1635 868594 Email: mobileeurope@circdata.com Web: wwwmobileeurope.co.uk

What do I personally think well see in 2011, I dont hear you ask? I think well see operators fight back a bit, if that is the right term, against the bit pipe perception. A speaker at the relatively recent FT Telecoms event proposed that the industry might be about to enter a period of price power. Im not so sure about that, but bandwidth as a scarcity instead of a gushing tap does begin to change things for operators. Yes, there will always be pressure on to provide more bandwidth, but operators cannot change physics, and they only have so much spectrum. I also think operators are going to get much better at dealing with the customer, making relevant and timely offers based on preference and context. Theres been too much work in this area for this not to happen. All those policy engines, convergent rating and charging systems, theyre not all there to bosh someone on the head because hes P2Ping movies all day. We have moved on, and will continue to, I think. Finally, some of you may have noticed that something called Mobile World Congress is around the corner. Now Im not one of those who whinges about that event I love it. Were lucky as an industry to have such an event, I think, and our next issue will be the World Congress issue, as it were, so bring it on.

They were listed as the most hyped subjects by our readers. They also featured highly in the field of network investment priorities in 2011. So, the topics are both over-hyped and top of the investment tree. You fickle lot.

Printed by William Gibbons & Sons Ltd, Willenhall, UK.

The views expressed in Mobile Europe are not necessarily those of the editor or the publisher. Mobile Europe is published by Saint John Patrick Publishers Ltd, 6 Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0BL.

4 | Mobile Europe

News
Femtocell l Convergent charging

UBIQUISYS AND NSN ANNOUNCE STANDARDS BASED FEMTO SOLUTION

Ubiquisys and Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) will have a femtocell solution available in the first quarter of 2011 featuring standardised Iuh and TR-196 interfaces between Ubiquisys Femtocell Access Points and NSN Gateways and Femto Management Systems. IuH is the standard protocol that the femtocell community has decided upon to support integration between femtocells and the network gateways that control and aggregate traffic from femtocells into the core network. TR-196 is the data model, expanded from the Brodband Forum's TR-069 protocol, used to manage femtocells. Standardised interfaces make femtocells independent of the network systems they connect to, enabling mobile operators to offer their customers a range of femtocell devices with specific capabilities, from a variety of vendors. There was a Femto Forum organised

Convergent charging particularly dynamic says Infonetics report

An Infonetics report on the emerging convergent charging market forecasts that the worldwide convergent charging market, including software and services, will grow nearly 5-fold between 2009 and 2014, from $533 million to $2.6 billion "The convergent charging market is a particularly dynamic one, with early implementations occurring primarily in emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, India and Eastern Europe, where operators are facing high churn rates and low ARPU. In the longer term, the additional market drivers will include accounting and charging for machineto-machine (M2M) tractions and 'mobile wallet' services," saidShira Levine, directing analyst for next gen OSS and policy at Infonetics Research. Levine said that the primary driver for convergent charging market growth is the push by operators to prevent customer churn and increase average revenue per user (ARPU) via loyalty programs and flexible payment methods (plans that include prepaid data and postpaid voice and variable pricing based on time of day or subscriber's location). Comverse and Ericsson were placed neck and neck in the race for first place in worldwide convergent charging revenue market share, with Comverse holding a slight edge. A sizable portion of the market is made up of smaller software vendors, including Comptel, Openet, Volubill, and Orga Systems, many of whom have a strong foothold in emerging and greenfield markets, Infonetics found. Another driver will be operators' cloud offerings, which will necessitate changes to their operational environments overall, and particularly to their existing charging capabilities. M2M transactions, will eventually far exceed human transactions on the mobile network, driving the need for charging solutions that can account for and reconcile that level of transaction volume, the report added.

BOTH PARTIES HAIL "MILESTONE" FOR FEMTO

plugfest in March 2010, in which access point and gateway products were tested against each other, and this is now the first end to end, standards compatible femtocell solution on the market, according to Ubiquisys. Keith Day, VP of Marketing for Ubiquisys, said "This is a big milestone, as this is the first standards-based, real product that has been tested for use. IuH has been a hyped topic that has faded a bit, but it is still the biggest carrier item in terms of driving the adoption of femtos. Tested, standards compatible equipment means operators can make an independent choice of femtocell access point vendor and gateway provider." Timo Hyppl, head of 3G Femto product management for NSN said, "Bringing to market what we believe is the world's first 3GPP standard compliant femto system, together with a well-known femto access point pioneer, Ubiquisys, marks an important milestone for us. This is a notable goal

achieved in terms of the industry work done towards an open ecosystem where we are cooperating with a number of partners in the industry. In addition, this marks a kick-off for a whole new era of standard based femtocells; intercompatible across company borders. I think it is of note for the industry that the femto standard, so much discussed, is now into reality in product offerings." NSN did previously have a partnership with Airvana in which NSN would market the gateways and Airvana its UMTS access points, but Airvana pulled out of that alliance before recently halting work on UMTS femtos altogether. So could this announcement be seen as NSN re-entering the market with an end-to-end solution? Hyppl said, "The announcement does not mark a change in the Nokia Siemens Networks 3G femto strategy. We remain committed to standards and co-operate with a number of partners to drive an open Femto ecosystem, based on a standards-compliant Femto network architecture concept. It is important for us to create (Iuh/TR-196) interoperability across a range of access points." Day said, "We will carry out interop work with other vendors as well, and you will see more and more of that. It opens up the value for operators in a femto deployment across the network part, the integration part and on the device side. We will also see many more variants of femto hardware as operators are freed from the idea of just one kind of access point."

6 | Mobile Europe

News
Customer experience l Policy management

UNPREPARED FOR PARTNERSHIPS?

Oracle has released research (that it commissioned) that reveals that while telecoms companies are indeed focused on providing a more personalised and compelling customer experience, the processes and systems they have in place leave them unable to achieve this goal. The research also found that many Communication Service Providers (CSPs) are planning to broaden their range of content through partnerships however, they face challenges in supporting a full range of billing options to capitalise on the opportunities these partnerships would present. The study, entitled State of Readiness, follows on from an Oracle report in 2009 in which a panel of global experts looked at how CSPs and media companies could prosper in the digital age amidst rapidly changing consumer behaviour. The research showed that telecoms firms have, on the whole, begun to focus on many of the strategic goals identified in the previous report. Their top priorities revolve primarily around reassuring customers and offering them a richer, more personalised experience: T Tailoring offerings to customers needs is highlighted as a major focus by 82% of respondents T Information security (80%) T Building value added services around content (70%) T Providing a compelling, intuitive user experience (68%) T Deepening specialism in core areas of expertise (68%) The trend towards personalisation is also reflected in the specific services telcos were planning to launch in the next three years three-quarters (76%) intend to deliver content personalised to each individual, while seven in ten (70%) plan to provide content based on users behaviour and preferences. However, subsequent findings revealed that the majority of telcos customer management systems lack the sophistication to deliver tailored experiences based on customer insights: T Just 12% are able to run detailed analyses of customer behaviour to spot trends and identify customer segments T Only 16% are able to provide detailed insight into individual customer behaviour T Fewer than half (44%) are able to track marketing and loyalty programmes across all channels for specific customers Only 46% are able to provide recommendations to customers based on the context of their current interaction Gordon Rawling, Director of EMEA Marketing, Oracle Communications, told Mobile Europe that telecoms operators are better placed than many might think to be able to adress the personalised services opportunity, and become the orchestrator of a range of content as it is delivered to customers in a context aware manner. Intelligence on customer habits, and the different segments that exist within it, is fundamental to delivering any kind of genuinely tailored user experience. The customer management systems many organisations have in place will be more than capable of delivering this insight. It is a case of integrating customer data and systems across the organisation and using this wealth of information to provide genuine insight into customer behaviour and how the business can profit from it. The new report also confirmed a huge appetite among telecoms firms for providing customers with richer content through partnerships. Many telecoms firms already have in place partnerships with IT and internet firms (82%) with 94% having plans to do so.

Operators can act as orchestrators of content

Traffic management companies line up for policy opportunity

Layer 7 specialist F5 has announced that it has brought a range of solutions together under one heading to create a "new market category" it is calling Service Delivery Networking. F5 said that by offering a set of integrated solutions for service and subscriber management it can provide an overall architectural approach to help solve the challenges mobile operators face today. Owen Cole, Technical Director for F5 UK, said that an example might be when an operator has a got a user using a PC and dongle, the operator could inspect the traffic and apply the business policy in the network. If they know that user is on a low fast connection with a low value payment plan, it would not route the data to its data optimisation platform. But they could look at another guy and say they do want to give him an uplifted level of service, and so route his traffic through that platform. As part of its SDN announcement, F5 announced integration with a range of providers, including Flash Networks, Vantrix, OpenWave, Volubill, and Byte Mobile. One of those partners, OpenWave, has launched its Passport: Smart Policy Edition. Passport is designed to enable mobile operators to roll out new tiered pricing plans and rapidly adapt to changing market needs and growing demand. It incorporates a new feature set that includes advanced support for group-based pricing plans that can span multiple devices and users, as well as accumulated time plans. And Continuous Computing launched its Trillium Monitoring Software product line monitoring software designed to enable operators to source information about network utilisation, real-time user location, network signalling and other parameters that are critical aspects of optimisation.

go to www.mobileeurope.co.uk for the latest mobile news

Mobile Europe | 7

News
Mobile web l IP BSC l LTE

AKAMAI TARGETS MOBILE WEB LAUNCH IN EUROPE

Akamai Networks will have mobile web content adaptation and m-commerce optimisation services in place across Europe in the first half of 2011, according to Neil Cohen, Director of Product Marketing. Akamai provides content delivery and ecommerce services to thousands of enterprises across the world, and it now wants to add the ability for its customers to add mobile web and m-commerce capabilities. It is basing one part of its mobile play on assets it acquired from French mobile content adaptation player Velocitude in June 2010. The Velocitude technology will enable Akamai to adapt web site content on the fly to mobile devices optimised to the screen size, software capabilities and profile of the mobile that is accessing the site. Cohen said that although many site owners have already built mobile sites, they dont include full optimisation for the full range of devices that may access the site. Nor do they always go beyond merely reformatting existing content for a mobile, instead of adding in mobile-specific priorities such as the ability to zoom in through a touch UI, add location specific content, or access barcode scanning applications. The platform also enables sites to be represented in different manners, retaining brand identity (above). The mobile web means designing different content from the desktop site, to add mobile specific features that you wouldnt have on the desktop site. The Akamai adaptation solution can also allow sites to be customised for mobile useability, allowing brand differentiation, Cohen said. Another capability of Akamais EdgePlatform solution, Cohen said, is that caching content local to the user will speed up response times by limiting the need for content requests to reach right across multiple networks to a content server. The other side of the mobile solution is to extend Akamais e-commerce capabilities to mcommerce, including its tokenisation ability below left), but incorporating mobile specific capabilities such as barcode scanning and NFC payments. Akamai has 80,000 servers installed across the world, and relationships with 1,000 service providers, Cohen said. Cohen does not envisage the company working with mobile operators to add its optimisation capabilities to operators'

own enterprise services. Instead, he sees Akamai as a customer of the service providers, buying bandwidth and co-location space for its network. But adoption of Akamai's solution would indirectly benefit operators as its edge optimisation reduces the load across operators' networks. He added that in his opinion the richness of the mobile web, aided by html5, is "growing by the day", meaning that the impact of applications upon how users access web based services will be lessened. "I think to be an app, there will need to be a really good reason for there to be an app," he said. "That said, Akamai has technology that can be applied to support the performance of applications accessed over the internet." Cohen pointed to Akamai's Application Performance Solutions that are supporting AppRiver's Microsoft Exchange solution.

NSN introduces IP connectivity to high capacity Flexi base station controller

Nokia Siemens Networks has beefed up its base station controller (BSC) portfolio with a high capacity product that introduces IP networking capabilities between the base station and BSC, and the BSC and mobile switching centre (MSC). Its new Flexi BSC introduces Packet Abis to give IP capability on the connection between the base station (BTS) and the BSC. IP networking between the BSC and the MSC is supported by the introduction of A over IP. (The A link is the link between the BSC and the MSC.) The introduction of both technologies is intended to support operators as they move to all-IP radio networks, and to IP over Ethernet transport for backhaul. NSN said that could mean operators would be able replace up to 32 existing base station controllers in the field giving up to 80% reduction in energy consumption along with a 40% increase in capacity over existing base station controllers. With an optical interface, fewer connections are required, meaning reduced installation effort, faster rollout, and lower maintenance costs. The Transcoder TCSM3i configuration also offers 40% more capacity. Higher voice capacity with fewer base station controllers reduces energy consumption, a major cost for operators, along with simplifying operations and maintenance resulting in lower OPEX, said Prashant Agnihotri, head of GSM/EDGE product management, Nokia Siemens Networks.

LSTI ROLE NEARLY OVER, SAYS LSTI

The LTE SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI), a collaboration between vendors and operators, is close to concluding "nearly all LTE trial Milestones", according to a statement. LSTI said it has reached Milestones for Interoperability Development Tests (IODT), Interoperability Tests (IOT) and for Friendly Customer Trials (FCT). With these Milestones complete, LSTI said it could move to its last working phase and "finish all LTE trials in a timely manner". Following on from the Proof of Concept testing phase which was completed a year ago, LSTI has now completed all Interoperability Development Tests (IODT) for both FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) and TDD (Time-Division Duplex).

8 | Mobile Europe

News
Social networking l Traffic management l News in brief

NewBay makes LifeCache faster

NewBay has upgraded its LifeCache Social Networking Gateway to make it faster and more bandwidth efficient, and include more destinations. LifeCache Social Networking Gateway is a platform used by mobile operators and device manufacturers to deliver updates and content from a user's social network sites to a single mobile screen. It also allows the upload of data to multiple sites by aggregating, routing and transcoding the media to multiple destinations reducing data traffic on the network and simplifying the user experience. Operator customers for NewBay LifeCache products include T-Mobile, Telefnica O2, and France Telecom/Orange.

OPERATORS WARNED OVER TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Mobile operators who block, or degrade the service quality of, certain applications will be forced to inform their customers of their actions and allow customers to freely switch providers if they wish, said Neelie Kroes, European Commission Vice-President for the Digital Agenda. Speaking at the European Commission and European Parliament Summit on 'The Open Internet and Net Neutrality in Europe', Kroes reminded operators of their obligations under the telecoms framework, agreed by the European Parliament and Council. Specifically, operators must not use network constraints as an excuse to exploit users. "The telecoms framework, agreed by the European Parliament and Council, gives us important tools," Kroes said. "Firstly, national regulatory authorities have a clear mandate to 'promote the ability of end-users to access and distribute information or run applications and services of their choice'. Secondly, regulators are also empowered to impose minimum quality of service requirements to prevent service degradation. Thirdly, operators are required to inform customers of any traffic management measures they are deploying." Kroes said that the EC would make sure these provisions were applied in all Member States in a co-ordinated manner, and would be monitored closely.Given the potential of those tools, it is only fair that we test their effectiveness. "I hope this monitoring and the upcoming implementation of the telecoms framework by Member States will pave the way for truly open networks," Kroes said. She added that
I LTE networks will account for four percent of the world's mobile connections within five years, according to a new report by Wireless Intelligence. The study, Global LTE network forecasts and assumptions 2010-2015, predicts that global LTE connections will surpass the one million mark in the first half of 2011 and will reach 300 million by 2015.

"THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN EIGHTY PER CENT REDUCTION IN NETWORK TRAFFIC

NewBay said that it has enhanced LifeCache SNG with the aim of achieving better bandwidth efficiency through filtering, batching and a mobile-optimised API. Media is transferred as a series of small files, as opposed to a single large upload, which could improve data transmission speed and efficiency. LifeCache SNG also supports partial upload of content and automatically resumes upload should a connection drop, so users do not need to resend the entire file. Finally, the platform uses a timestamp facility that ensures users only receive the latest updates from their social networks, reducing bandwidth usage and upload time for a more positive user experience. Mark Britten, senior product manager at NewBay, said. LifeCache SNG is optimised to efficiently deliver user data across multiple social networks in the smallest possible package. This has resulted in an eighty percent reduction in network traffic for operators. NewBay has also added LinkedIn and Orkut as available destinations for users. Current sites supported include MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, Bebo, Photobucket and Flickr.

although "nearly everyone agrees that traffic management is essential, not only to optimise the provision of 'best effort services' on the open Internet, but also to allow the development of special managed services", operators should take care to use that traffic management "properly". That means that operators may use traffic management to increase the quality of Internet services, preserve network integrity and open the way to new investments in efficient networks. What operators should not do is use it it as "simply a means of exploiting current network constraints". Kroes said that the blocking and "throttling" of sites and applications, or applying differentiated end-user data charges for certain applications, continues to a certain extent. "This clearly creates a problem if consumers are not duly informed and do not have the possibility to easily switch to alternative providers," she said. Kroes followed up this point by calling on consumers who find themselves blocked from open access to certain applications to vote with their feet, or wallets. "Blocking of Internet telephone services i.e. Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) in particular Skype - over mobile networks is the obvious example today. VoIP is merely today's example. There will surely be other examples with future innovations and that is why we cannot be complacent. But I think consumers should not underestimate their own power in shaping this situation. "And I say to those people who are currently cut off from Skype: vote with your feet and leave your mobile provider."
I IE, part of the Parseq group providing digital banking software for financial services, has launched mobinetic, a mobile banking platform that offers financial providers the ability to deliver fully branded mobile banking services and value-add initiatives to their customer base. mobinetic is intended to enable banks to overcome their lack of specialised internal resource.

go to www.mobileeurope.co.uk for the latest mobile news

Mobile Europe | 9

News
NFC M-Payments l Backhaul l OTA Customer care

ERICSSON BECOMES TSM

Ericsson IPX, the Ericsson business that acts as a payments, messaging and services broker between operators and service providers, has said that it wants to become a Trusted Service Manager (TSM) for mobile NFC payments. Mattias Johansson, Product Manager, Ericsson IPX, said, "We will launch a TSM brokering service in Europe in 2011. We have some pilots that we are workng with in different markets, and service providers are building proof of concept, but technically we are ready to go." A Trusted Service Manager (TSM) in NFC payments is an entity in the ecosystem that sits independent of the mobile operators, and of the banks and financial institutions. Its role is to distribute, provision and activate the applications and services of service providers (such as a credit card application on a device) over mobile networks, but without taking part in the actual transactions themselves. The idea of the TSM is that it will free up the service providers and the operators from individual contracts, but also conflicts of interest over control over services. Johansson said that Ericsson IPX, which already acts as a pSMS, MMS and Online Payments provider, is in an ideal position to become a TSM in the NFC payments market when it goes commercial. So far, most of the players who are providing, or have said they intend to provide, TSM services have come from the smartcard community, such as Gemalto, or from the payment processing market. Johansson said that he thinks that Ericsson IPX is the first IPX provider to state that it will enter the NFC TSM market. "We are looking at expanding our family of brokering services, and we see 2011 being the year for NFC launches in Europe," he said. "There have been a couple of false starts on NFC, but from a standards point of view most of the missing pieces have been defined." "The last missing piece is if you are a service provider and you want to launch a service to reach a market, to put an app on the SIM card you need to integrate with all the operators in a single market, and that's the problem that Ericsson IPX is solving in other industries, currently. So we see ourselves expanding on the IPX role to build on our existing relationships and offer them a single integration and single contract to reach all the operators on the market. It's a way to make it easier for service providers and for operators to launch NFC services."

Tesco Mobile pilots Tweakker for customer care

First operator pilot for over the air customer care provider Tweakker, which provides an over the air mobile provisioning interface, has signed Tesco Mobile Ireland up as the first operator to pilot its web-based customer care solution. Tweakker claims that its OTA API is tentwenty times cheaper than the cost of a customer care call for a customer experiencing configuration or settings problems. It is thought that Tweakker, which has operated on a direct to the customer model so far, has other industry partnerships in the pipeline to be announced in 2011. Tweakkers service supports nearly 2,400 mobile models and 129 brands and its API. Service providers and operators can use the service by buying access to Tweakkers API, developing a web interface and adding to to their websites. As a result, Tweakkers customers provide anytime-anywhere customer care at approximately 5% of the cost of call centres. In September 2010 the company said that more than 500,000 people had used Tweakkers API, a number it claims has now risen to 900,000.

European operators reach microwave backhaul peak in 2010

Microwave is the favoured backhaul solution for Western Europe, says research from ABI. With the division of whether to use optical fiber or microwave for mobile backhaul, CAPEX for microwave backhaul will peak in Western Europe this year at almost $4.4 billion, more than triple the figure for the next-highest region, Asia-Pacific, according to ABI Research. The European spending surge is due to the expansion of 3G networks to new areas, as well as a few initial 4G network deployments. Once that wave is completed in Western Europe, microwave backhaul will be left alone for a while, comments ABI Research analyst Xavier Ortiz. Following the 2010 spending spree, Western European microwave backhaul CAPEX will tumble in 2011 to just over half its peak level. Virtually all world regions will see some increase in microwave backhaul CAPEX over 2011-2013, followed by a gradual decline, says ABI, with the reasons varying by location. In Asia, many 3G networks will be rolled out during that period, and others will be expanded to reach remote, underserved areas and, according to practice director Aditya Kaul, Asias investment in microwave backhaul would be even greater were it not for the Chinese governments mandate to use fiber for the countrys 3G and 4G networks. Although microwave is less expensive and faster to deploy, a governmental commitment to fiber means huge economies of scale, and fewer worries about zoning permissions. In the United States, the situation is said to be very different. The prevalence of fiber optic cable in many parts of the country combined with the high cost of tower leasing mean that interest in microwave as a backhaul solution is lower than anywhere else. Large service providers are saying they will only use microwave where fiber is unavailable, says Ortiz.

10 | Mobile Europe

News
EPC at Tele2 l Challenger operators l News in brief

NSN supplies common EPC core for Tele2

Nokia Siemens Networks has said that Tele2 Sweden is using its Evolved Packet Core (EPC), giving it a common core supporting 4G/LTE, 3G and 2G mobile offerings for mobile data as well as circuit switched voice telephony and IP telephony services. In addition to providing its EPC, Nokia Siemens Networks has deployed its Subscriber Data Management and Subscriber Repository platforms based on the One-NDS solution, also including HSS (Home Subscriber Server) and EIR (Equipment Identity Register) functionality, which consolidates the subscriber data. Under the contract, Nokia Siemens Networks is also upgrading the existing core network to support advanced redundancy functions and enable a path towards an all

GET BULLISH ON PRICING, SQUEEZE THE VENDORS

Challenger operators in mature markets could boost revenues and revenue market share by installing low cost networking equipment and pursuing speed and device-tiered pricing, rather than volume based tariffs, according to an analysis of E-Plus business by Nordic analyst Rewheel. Rewheels Pal Zarandy said that E-Plus favourable spectrum mix in the 1800 MHz and 2.1 GHz bands, combined with new low cost ZTE SDR-based radio network equipment, could give E-Plus a competitive advantage over the major German operators (O2, Vodafone, TMobile) if it gets its marketing and pricing correct. Rewheel said that E-Plus had been holding back investments into advanced technologies like HSPA, but late last year KPNs management declared a strategy U-turn and in December 2009 teamed up with ZTE to accelerate the national rollout of a very cost efficient, high capacity HSPA+ network. Later on, during the spring E-Plus secured valuable spectrum resources among others in the 1800 MHz and 2.1 GHz band, well suited for the low infrastructure cost, low terminal subsidisation strategy, Zarandy said. The strategy mirrored that of Telenor Group in Hungary, Zaranady said, where the operator switched out Ericsson equipment for ZTE, giving it a much lower cost base. Some people are still hesitant over the quality and performance of the cheaper equipment, Zaranady said, but we are not concerned about that at all. What we are trying to say is that for

"EPC PREPARES THE OPERATOR FOR HIGH-SPEED DATA

IP network. The contract also encompasses implementation and maintenance services for these systems. With smart device users and the demand for data services increasing, Tele2 Sweden was looking to scale up its network, added Christian Fredrikson, head of sales for Network Systems, Nokia Siemens Networks. Our EPC prepares the operator for highspeed data services. It also eliminates the need for additional elements in the transport network and achieves an optimised IP-based network architecture that secures the operators investments in the long run.

I 3 Italia has chosen Ericsson to modernize its IT infrastructure and systems including hardware and software, IP connectivity, operating systems and storage. The contract covers data center consolidation with hardware modernisation, upgrade and consolidation of 3 Italia's software application domains, abd transformation of OSS/BSS systems. The agreement builds on the partnership established between 3 Italia and Ericsson.

I Arqiva and Alcatel-Lucen have announced an LTE trial in the Preseli Mountains, West Wales. The trial is said to demonstrate the economic and technical viability of a neutral-host wireless network as a route to extending broadband Internet services to areas with no broadband coverage (notspots) and those with speeds lower than 2Mbits/s throughout the UK, estimated at 10% of UK households.

challenger operators its worth considering radical steps on the supply chain side as the network in becoming part of the competitive differentiation. If you can implement bullish pricing and optimise your network to swap to lower cost vendors then you can really get competitive advantage, Zarandy said. E-Plus has a distinct advantage in that it has plenty of spectrum, with four UMTS carriers, which means that it can deliver a very good user experience based on HSPA and HSPA+. That means that not only can it delay LTE investments for many years, but also that it needs to operate with much lower device subsidies. But it is in pricing strategies that Zarandy thinks E-Plus is missing a trick. So far, E-Plus has pursued volume based pricing, but Rewheel thinks that by instead offering speed or devicetiered tariffs, E-Plus could accelerate its annual revenue growth rate to more that 6%, propelling the company to 25% revenue market share. Zarandy said that device-based pricing is technically difficult, as it means limiting SIM use to defined devices. But speed based tariffing is already operating in many markets, he added. The key outcomes of Rewheels mobile data impact analysis include: T Missing out from the popular 800 MHz spectrum will not cause E-Plus a significant competitive handicap because their unique position in the 1800 MHz and 2.1 GHz bands will allow for rolling out a continuous high capacity mobile data network across their target footprint T E-Pluss data traffic, driven by video, will grow by a CAGR of 61% and the average monthly usage of smartphones, tablets and notebooks will exceed 4, 11, and 13 GB respectively.

go to www.mobileeurope.co.uk for the latest mobile news

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INSIGHT REPORT

The cloud-enabled operator: READY FOR THE OPPORTUNITY

We hear so much about cloud services that an introduction from me is rendered almost superfluous. But what exactly, we at Mobile Europe wondered, is the opportunity that many call Cloud in terms of a mobile operators business? And if a mobile operator is convinced by that opportunity, what are the things that operator would need to be cloud service enabled. In other words, what extra infrastructure is required, what about security and data centre capability? And are existing OSS and BSS systems up to the mark to support operator offered cloud services? We asked about, and were told that Michael Knuckey, editor of the website Cloud Vision, could be the man to help us. So we gave Michael the brief we outlined above, and asked him to report back with his findings. So here, over the following few pages, he has outlined the opportunity, the elements required to address them, and the suppliers and vendors that are strong in key areas. Its an attractive and informative read, and will help further the understanding of how to take advantage of what could be profitable lines of business for mobile operators. Which now, more than ever, is just what they need. Keith Dyer Editor, Mobile Europe

INSIGHT REPORT CONTENTS:

P14 The opportunity P15 Customer perceptions P16 Business models P17 Being cloud enabled P18 Key vendors P19 The operators strength

REPORT AUTHOR:

MICHAEL KNUCKEY Michael Knuckey is the Founder and Editor of the Cloud Vision web portal and a Board Member of Eurocloud UK. He is a regular speaker at Cloud Computing conferences and also leads the Cloud Vision consulting practice focusing on Cloud Ecosystem partner strategies for service providers and creating differentiated Go-To Market plans.

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THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FOR MOBILE SERVICES

I remember almost two years ago gaining my first introduction to Cloud Computing and its power to revolutionise the way IT services are deployed and consumed. I had dropped in to see an old friend heading up the IT operations of a major financial services company with a network of global offices. He was excited to tell me about the success of his latest project where he had been able to replace their old email system running on a server in his datacentre with a new online Cloud-based email service. he old email system, he explained, was costing too much to maintain in terms of licence upgrades and the specialist staff resources. So with the help of a trusted advisor he created a business case for investing in a Cloud-based solution and was amazed by the ROI he could demonstrate to his business. He discovered that he could eliminate all the capital expenditure tied up in the server hardware

and annual software licences with a monthly subscription operating expense covering the email service and 24/7 support. The subscription was a fraction of the previous budget allocated to email and he was able to reassign his email support team to other more business critical systems. On top of these cost savings he realised he could gain increased business agility through almost unlimited ondemand scalability and enabling his global users to access their email at anytime, from anywhere using their desktop or mobile device. His Board approved the investment and he was able to implement the new service in days (instead of the months for his old on-premise solution). Based on this success he went on to deploy several other Cloud solutions for business analytics, human resources and accounting, earning on the way a well deserved promotion! Since those early days, there has been a strong growth in Cloud services adoption by businesses seeking to completely

transform their operations and gain significant competitive advantage by harnessing the potential of the Cloud. This growth has coincided with an explosion in mobile internet traffic with smartphones enabling consumers to access a wealth of third party internet applications including Facebook,Google, YouTube and gaming. It is important to realise that all these services are hosted on massively scalable Cloud platforms. Although the mobile operators (MNOs) have generally been seen as bit players (or should I say bit-pipe players) in the first wave of consumer driven Cloud services, they cannot afford to miss the enormous revenue potential coming from the second wave of high value business Cloud services. This report sets out the opportunities for the MNOs to step forward to take a leading role as trusted service provider and what they need to become Cloud enabled in terms of infrastructure, support systems and strategic partners.

CLOUD SERVICES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOBILE OPERATORS?

The best opportunity for the mobile operators to rise up the value chain and generate rich new revenue streams will come from launching business Cloud services. The potential is there for the MNOs to create differentiated services to successfully compete against the leading Cloud service providers and gain higher margins. The ability of the operator to become the Cloud Services Aggregator will make it easier for business customers
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to find the applications they need and will place the operators in a stronger negotiating position when they are having revenue sharing discussions with their third party software partners. In addressing the business market the MNO will be able to draw on some key strengths in terms of existing customer relationships, single sourcing, security and comprehensive service quality monitoring and locally based highly secure data

centres. Business customers will already have a data service or mobility relationship with the operators and will be willing to pay for single sourcing (adding the Cloud services to their existing consolidated billing), the trusted security enabled by the familiar policy management system and guaranteed End-to-End Quality of Service (combining Cloud Service and mobile network performance) backed by an SLA.

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SIZING THE MARKET

Leading analyst firm Gartner highlights Cloud Computing and Mobility as the two leading trends in IT services for 2011. They have forecast, perhaps a little optimistically, that 20% of enterprises will own no IT infrastructure by 2012 and that By 2012, 80% of Fortune 1000 enterprises will be using some level of cloud computing services. Recently Juniper Research released a report forecasting that the mobile cloud services market would be worth $9.5 billion globally by 2014 representing an annual growth rate of 88%. The author Windsor Holden told me that his research has identified revenue potential of $2.86 billion for Europe with the majority (75%) of the revenue coming from business customers. He felt that Small and Medium Businesses (SMB) would lead the uptake of Cloud services as the reduced Total Cost of Ownership benefits were compelling. They would be able to gain affordable online access to Enterprise-class software capabilities in areas such as accounting, sales management, HR and business analytics.

CUSTOMER PERCEPTION
Operators will need to overcome the common perception that they lack the IT skills and knowledge of the vertical markets business processes in comparison to the traditional IT services providers. The good news for the MNOs is that a joint study conducted by Hewlett Packard (HP) and Forrester Research has revealed that converged telecoms service providers would have permission to play. The results showed that IT buyers see them as, if not the first choice for their Cloud services, then certainly a close second or third. Another key finding was that IT services buyers saw real value in operators partnering with major IT vendors and systems integrators to offer joint cloud solutions and ongoing consulting and support services. Interestingly there have been several announcements about CSPs partnering in this way with IT vendors NEC has established a Centre of Excellence in Madrid to support Telefonica, Unisys has partnered with Colt Technologies and HP have partnered with SFR in France.

Telcos have permission to play in the cloud

CREATING DIFFERENTIATED CLOUD SERVICES

Google are promoting a form of Mobile Cloud Computing where applications running in the Cloud are accessed from a thin handset client or even a browser, providing virtually unlimited processing power, huge amounts of storage and the promise of cross-device platform compatibility. But as several speakers at the recent Keynote Mobile Cloud Forum conference pointed out, this definition is very limiting. It does not leverage the powerful assets of the mobile network itself to bring added value to the business customers. These assets include reliable communications (only mobile operators can provide end-to-end service monitoring backed by SLAs), long term billing relationships enabling Cloud services to be bundled with other services onto a single bill and customer location intelligence. Until recently these assets were difficult to access due to industry fragmentation and technical barriers. Now recent initiatives such as the GSM Associations OneAPI standard being adopted by the Wholesale Application Community (WAC) will make it possible for mobile network, billing and informational assets are packaged and marketed towards third parties such as Enterprises, systems integrators, software vendors and developers. MNOs will be able to collaborate to offer cross-network Network as a Service (NaaS) to their third party software partners. This will enable new services including Direct2Mobile, In-App Billing, network-derived location, click-tocall/conference, and two way messaging, seamlessly across multiple network operators. The first commercial OneAPI multinetwork service has been launched in Canada linking TELUS, Bell Canada and Rogers mobile networks. The service is run by the GSMA on a platform provided by Aepona.
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THE MOBILE CLOUD BUSINESS MODELS

Joe Weinman was until recently VP of AT&Ts Strategy and Business Development and a regular speaker at Cloud conferences before taking up his latest Cloud evangelist role with Hewlett Packard (HP) and I asked him for his insight into the types of Cloud solutions the MNOs could offer to businesses. In his opinion mobility and the cloud go together like hand and glove. He suggests there are three major ways to think about this fit. 1. Mobile devices can acquire content, applications, or services from the cloud. 2. The reverse can happen, where the cloud acquires, aggregates, and analyzes information from mobile devices. 3. Multiple devices can interact bidirectionally with each otherfor communications, collaboration, or competitionvia the cloud. He believes the first model is now well understood: 3G and soon 4G networks coupled with smart endpoints such as mobile devices and slates/tablets have unleashed the ability of entire web pages, rich media applications with heavy page weight graphics video and highly interactive applications to run. This is enabling what HP calls an Instant-On Enterprise, with immediate access to information anytime, anywhere. The second model is rapidly emerging, where information is acquired from mobile and wireless devices and uploaded and aggregated by the cloud. For example, emerging M2M smart grid solutions for utilities and video surveillance solutions are leveraging uplink bandwidth enhancements to provide everything from real-time electricity usage to higher resolution video feeds. This Real-time data will help businesses to automate the management of their mobile field sales and support teams, as well as, closely monitoring their mobile assets. The cloud applications can then act in real-time to develop valuable insights using business analytics to optimise business operations. The possible applications include helping mobile workforces to re-route around traffic jams and respond quickly to high priority customer problems or coordinating electricity demand across a region by automatically adjusting thermostats. Information can be extracted from metadata, e.g., deducing the existence of traffic jams from GPS info and/or changes in handoff rates between cell towers. Finally the third model will see the combining of full duplex communications across multiple users each with one or more devices. This will provide unprecedented opportunities for rich, realtime collaboration. For instance, mobile gaming is no longer just personal, but is mediated by game servers in the cloud. Multi-point video conferencing can now occur across immersive visual collaboration environments seamlessly connecting users on desktops and mobile devices by leveraging emerging standards.

The third way: opportunities for communication and collaboration via the cloud

THE CLOUD DELIVERY MODELS

There are three generally accepted models of Cloud deployment PUBLIC CLOUD A cloud service that is hosted, operated and managed by a third party supplier from one or more datacentres offering shared elastic computing resources to multiple customers. The Public Cloud supports the delivery of the Software-asService applications that leverage the benefits of a shared multi-tenant architecture.Google, Amazon and salesforce.com are examples of Public Clouds.
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PRIVATE CLOUD Private Clouds are designed to emulate most of the features of the Public Cloud on a private network. They are dedicated to a single enterprise customer, operating under the protection of their network firewall. The Private Clouds enable larger enterprises to leverage the elastic scalability benefits of the Cloud while conforming to their security and governance policies. Private Clouds are offered by all the leading IT vendors including IBM, HP, Oracle, Cisco and VMWare.

HYBRID CLOUD This model combines the best features of the Public and Private Clouds enabling enterprises to take advantage of the Public Cloud services for non-core services while protecting their core legacy business applications behind their firewalls. A number of vendors provide secure integration services to enable Hybrid Clouds including Cast Iron (now an IBM company), Pervasive , Informatica and Boomi.

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WHAT OPERATORS REQUIRE TO BE CLOUD SERVICES ENABLED IN TERMS OF INFRASTRUCTURE, SYSTEMS AND PROCESSES
If you take a step back, you can appreciate that the converged telecom operators global voice networks are effectively operating a very successful early version of Cloud services and that the existing infrastructure, systems and processes will provide a framework to support the new services. At the top level the new Cloud services will require similar internal processes the services will need to defined and added to the service catalogs, customers will order the new services through extensions to the MNO customer portal and they will need to be provisioned through the fulfilment system and monitored for Quality of Service through extensions to the Service Assurance suite. There are though some key differences with the existing MNO services that have to be taken into account and supported by the OSS/BSS processes. Firstly the Cloud services run on an IT infrastructure that will need to be closely managed and secondly many of the new services will involve more complex bundles sourced from single or multiple vendors in the case of the Cloud mash ups. Over the last 20 years, the TM Forum, which includes representatives from all the major fixed and mobile operators, communications hardware and software vendors, has been leading the standards initiatives. Their Next Generation OSS (NGOSS) model encapsulates the telecoms industry best practices and defines clear definitions of the key processes and open interfaces the operators need to streamline their internal processes. The benefit of adopting the NGOSS model has already been successfully proved from integrating other value added new services into the existing OSS and BSS platforms. In the last year or so the TM Forum has recognised the impact that Cloud services will have on its members and has created a Cloud Services Initiative. They have brought together an ecosystem of enterprise customers, cloud service providers and technology suppliers who collaborate to define a range of common approaches, processes, metrics and other key service enablers. The Enterprise Cloud Leadership Council (ECLC) which consists of a group of enterprise customers serves as the anchor for this ecosystem. The goal of the ECLC is to ensure the acceleration of the creation of an open and vibrant cloud services marketplace across all global geographies through standardization and best practice. It is achieving its vision by aligning the needs of the worlds largest enterprise IT customers with cloud service providers and technology suppliers. As with other initiatives the TM Forum has invited interested vendors to collaborate in multi-vendor proof of concept Catalyst Projects focused on enabling the telecoms operators to offer Cloud services. You can find more detailed information about these projects on the TM Forum website and see the demonstrations at the Management World conferences.

Comptels vision of how Cloud Services will integrate to existing OSS systems.
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WHO ARE THE VENDORS SUPPORTING THE OPERATOR CLOUD SERVICE OFFERING?
At the moment in Europe, most of the operators Cloud service deployments are still in the incubator phase as they work with their partners to create Proof of Concepts prior to mainstream launches. In most cases they are working with their existing OSS and BSS vendors to extend their existing infrastructure, systems and processes to support the complex variations of the new Cloud service offerings. I have listed below some of the prominent vendors addressing the mobile cloud delivery platforms and compelling cloud services.

Right: SFRs business offer now includes IaaS capability

HEWLETT PACKARD (HP) HP established a strong position as the incumbent OSS/BSS vendor and systems integrator in many of the converged service providers. In the last two years it has developed a fully integrated HP Cloud Services Enablement for CSPs combining components from their HP BladeSystem Matrix, IT Service Management, OSS, BSS and the growing Communications as-aService suite of CSP-focused Cloud applications. The suite is designed to be hosted in the CSP datacentres and offered to SMB business customers on a pay-perminute or pay-per-subscription basis. The solution includes as a service solutions for PC Backup, Device Management (essential to manage the growing smartphone base), IP-based Contact Centres, Interactive Voice Response and multimedia conferencing.In addition, they have launched packaged Cloud consulting services including a Cloud Discovery Workshop to help their customers develop a roadmap for deploying Cloud services. The HP Cloud Aggregation platform enables CSPs to offer a combination of IaaS, CaaS and third party sourced SaaS solutions to their customers through a unified service catalog linked to the self service portal and interface with the billing platform. In Europe, HP announced in October that they had formed a partnership with converged operator SFR in France, with 20 Million mobile customers, to offer Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) to their 1400 business customers. SFR will host the service inhouse at their geographically dispersed datacentres. The fully automated service will enable customers to move their IT infrastructure to the Cloud and gain access to secure, highly scalable, elastic compute and storage resources backed by

HP announced in October that they had formed a partnership with SFR in France, to offer Infrastructure-as-aService (IaaS) to their 1400 business customers. SFR will host the service inhouse at their geographically dispersed datacentres.
stringent end-to-end SLAs. The customers will gain from reduced costs as they will only pay for the IT resources they consume ideal for businesses with seasonal peaks. NEC NEC offers its Carrier Cloud as a complete stack with Cloud servers/appliances, IaaS, PaaS and SaaS which can be combined with their NetCracker OSS/BSS platforms. The Cloud Service Platform is designed to provide a marketplace for third party SaaS applications and features single sign on for all services and a charging gateway that accepts charging events from SaaS applications. NEC has deployed their Cloud services across the Telefonica O2

network in Europe and South America and have established a Centre of Excellence in Madrid to support the relationship. Working closely with Telefonica, NEC has created an abstraction layer/Platform as a Service across all the network assets and implemented the WAC oneAPI standard interface to make it easy for SaaS vendors to add location and other network intelligence to their applications. The network intelligence has enabled Task Force Management SaaS applications to track that the location of mobile staff discover and optimise their daily tasks. COMPTEL Comptel is a leading supplier of OSS software to the Telecoms market claiming 280 customers in 85 countries. They have created their Dynamic OSS solution providing a comprehensive, fully automated Concept to Cash Cloud Services platform incorporating a customer portal, service catalog, fulfillment and service provisioning, policy control, third party SaaS partner settlements, rating and charging of Cloud services. They have taken a major role in the TM Forum Cloud Initiatives featuring in the Catalyst proof of Concepts and demonstrating the feasibility of automating the Cloud service processes.

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In the Cloud Service Broker catalyst sponsored by BT they supplied their Product and Services Assembly Architecture which supports federated service catalogs. This technology enables CSPs to discover service components in third party catalogs and assemble new combined services to meet customer requirements. AEPONA Aepona is a leading software vendor with extensive experience of supporting cross-network commercialisation issues through their Universal Service Platform (USP). The solutions include multi-operator bill-on-behalf-of services, centralised privacy/consent and policy management, cross-network routing, multi-party settlement, and support for a variety of partner charging models solutions. Its USP is fully compliant to the OneAPI specifications and is the software engine that powers the world's first commercial OneAPI service in Canada, run by the GSMA and supported by TELUS, Bell Canada and Rogers. The USP allows MNOs to implement Network as a Service (NaaS), in which mobile network billing and informational assets are packaged and marketed towards 3rd parties such as Enterprises, SIs, ISVs, and Web/Mobile application developers. These assets are then available on-demand via the Mobile Cloud to enrich and monetize a wide variety of B2B and B2C applications and services across many vertical market segments. The latest release of the USP combines Web Service Exposure, Payments and Settlement and Partner Relationship Management in a tightly integrated, commercial off-the-shelf software platform. MICROSOFT Microsoft offers a range of general Cloud services based on their Microsoft Azure platform. In the CSP market they can provide information systems and processes using a revenue share partner approach. Many CSPs have deployed the Microsoft Business Productivity Online

Services(BPOS) suite of messaging and collaboration applications including Microsoft Exchange online and Microsoft SharePoint online and Microsoft LiveMeeting for web and video conferencing. These Cloud-based services are hosted in the Microsoft datacentres and can be branded by the CSP. In the Basque region of Spain, Microsoft has partnered with Euskatel to offer the Windows Live network of internet services

on mobile devices, computers and TV. This Cloud-based service supported by advertising allows the CSP to offer rich content to its customers without incurring maintenance and operating costs. FUNAMBOL Funambol is a leader in providing white label mobile cloud sync and push email solutions that is built into more than one billion mobile phones. The cloud-based

THE SPI CLOUD SERVICES DELIVERY FRAMEWORK

A commonly agreed upon framework for describing cloud computing services:
Software as a Service (SaaS) Off the shelf applications that are enabled for the cloud and accessed through a standard internet browser. The user is not aware of the underlying Cloud platform and infrastructure No upfront capital costs, the customer does not have to acquire any computer equipment and is billed using a flexible monthly subscription model The SaaS applications are normally ordered and downloaded through online customer portals ready for immediate use The applications are mobility enabled - the applications can be accessed from any internet enabled mobile device or PC. Easy to implement by user with readily available customer support Addressing specific business processes and encapsulating best practices Continuous improvement, new features can be accessed at the next user login Multi-tenant architecture model where multiple customers share the same computing resources reducing Total Cost of Ownership SaaS encourages closer relationships between suppliers and clients. The supplier has to consistently provide value to the customer and can monitor more directly how the customer is using the software. Platform as a Service Developer friendly development platforms for SaaS applications The PaaS abstracts the developer from the underlying computing resources Packaged as a service Hosted in the Cloud and accessed through an internet browser Supports the multi-tenant environment for SaaS applications development Incorporates runtime applications monitoring and integrated billing based on flexible usage models Infrastructure as a Service Utility-based computing resources based on a virtualised computing and storage platforms Can utilise the service providers existing IT infrastructure with the option to utilise third party Cloud providers to handle peak processing requirements Flexible elastic resources can be scaled up and down to meet peak loads on a pay-as-you-go basis Built in high availability Self service portal and service catalogue enables users to scale up and down computing resources on an on-demand basis 24 x 7 with guaranteed service availability Highly automated deployment processes to minimise errors Infrastructure design tool for application templates New servers and data storage capacity can be deployed and decommissioned in minutes Packaged as a flexible service which can be sold by service providers and integrated with the customer billing, policy control and other OSS components
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INSIGHT REPORT
WHAT ARE THE STRENGTHS OF MOBILE OPERATORS TO COMPETE SUCCESSFULLY IN THE MOBILE CLOUD ?
IT buyers view mobile operators as a credible supplier of Mobile Cloud services especially if they can form partnerships with leading IT vendors and Systems Integrators.
Funambol Server is the de facto open source implementation of SyncML, the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) platformindependent standard for data synchronisation. The Carrier Edition is offered to CSPs with a full support package to enable them to add their own branding. The Funambol solution provides a cloud vault that enables the MNO customers to backup and synchronise all the vital data from their phones, PCs and other devices connected to the internet. ANTENNA Antenna is the world's largest independent provider of enterprise mobility solutions, with more than 200 customers, across over 40 countries and empowering more than 250,000 endusers, and has developed the AMP mobility platform Mobile Enterprise Application Platform (MEAP)supporting a a suite of supporting applications. Antenna has already developed some enterpriseclass HTML5 applications including AMP Sharepoint, AMP Travel Approval, AMP Expense Approval and AMP PO Approval which it markets as the 'AMP Approvals Suite'. Antenna has established partnerships with leading operators including AT&T, Korea Telecom, Sprint, Verizon and Vodafone. In the Europe their customers include Heineken Ireland, Pitney Bowes, and Virgin Media. CLOUD INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS A number of associations provide a good source of information on the latest developments in Cloud services, listings of Cloud vendors an guidance on Cloud security and Compliance. TM FORUM The TM Forum has recognised the impact that Cloud services will have on its members and has created a Cloud Services Initiative. They have brought together an ecosystem of enterprise customers, cloud service providers and technology suppliers who collaborate to define a range of common approaches, processes, metrics and other key service
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The strengths the mobile operators bring are: Long term customer relationships with thousands of their Small Medium Business (SMB) and Enterprise Businesses Strong track record as a trusted, reliable supplier of vital business communications services 24 x 7 over many years Locally-based call centres in the countries where they operate Guaranteed end-to-end performance and service quality backed by SLAs Local network of high availability data centres which can be used to host the Cloud services. An awareness of the location of the mobile employees through the GPS features of the handsets A potentially wide portfolio of Cloud services combining off the shelf SaaS applications with more specialised mobile cloud applications for industry verticals eg mobile workforce applications and smart grid utility solutions Familiar customer self-service portals linked to service catalogues and automated provisioning systems which can be extended to include the Cloud services Robust and flexible billing platforms that can be easily integrated to the Cloud services subscription models These strengths should enable mobile operators to compete successfully with the Cloud Computing service providers, including Amazon and Google, and put them in a stronger position to negotiate attractive revenue sharing arrangements with third party Cloud applications vendors. CLOUD SECURITY ALLIANCE The Alliance is a global association of IT security vendors and consultants addressing all the security and compliance aspects around cloud computing. EUROCLOUD Eurocloud is an association of European Cloud and SaaS vendors cloud services organisation now operating in 16 countries with plans to grow to 25 countries across the EU. The organisation is compiling a directory of Cloud and SaaS solutions. CLOUD INDUSTRY FORUM The Cloud Industry Forum (CIF) is an industry body that champions and advocates the adoption and use of online (cloud based) services by businesses. They have recently released a Cloud Industry Code of Practice providing guidelines offering Cloud services. INTELLECT Intellect represents the UK technology industry and has a Software as a Service Group made up of members from the UK software vendors and maintain a directory of Cloud-based solutions. SIIA The US-based Software and Information Industry Association represents Cloud vendors and organises key Cloud conferences in the US and Europe.

These strengths should enable mobile operators to compete successfully with the Cloud Computing service providers, including Amazon and Google, and put them in a stronger position to negotiate attractive revenue sharing arrangements
enablers. The Forum has initiated a number of Proof of Concept catalyst projects to demonstrate best practice and vendor inter-operability. GSMA The GSMA is the leading mobile industry trade body focused on ensuring interoperability between all the GSM network providers. Their OneAPI standard being adopted by the Wholesale Application Community (WAC) so that MNOs will be able to collaborate to offer cross-network Network as a Service (NaaS) to their third party software partners. The GSMA organizes the annual Mobile World Congress in Barcelona which will feature a Cloud services stream in 2011.

Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

2011 IN YOUR WORDS

o that was 2010 a year in which mobile really began to connect the world. According to statistics from MobileFuture.org there were five billion apps downloaded (up from 300 million in 2009) in 2010, a 347% growth in Twitter mobile usage, 200 million mobile Facebook users and 100 million YouTube videos played on mobile devices every day. So what does 2011 hold - where can to go from there? To start us off, we asked you for your views. Our questions werent intended to provide a definitive piece of research in themselves, but they would act as more than a good start in determining what you thought the top topics, companies and personalities would be in 2011. So who took the survey? Well, we sent the survey out to our database, and also hosted it on our site, and 1,025 of you were kind enough to take part. Of those, 29.4% of respondents work for or within a mobile operator, with a further 18.8% working for a service provider. 49.4% of all respondents work for a supplier of services or equipment. We asked a few simple-looking questions, to start off with, beginning with a brief recap on what has gone before us this year.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE YEAR IN MOBILE 2011

What companies will make the breakthrough in 2011, who will be the key personalities, and what gets on your nerves about the industry as it heads into 2011? We asked you to tell us, and you surely did. Read all about yourselves below

This question was designed to assess which of the service areas that are tipped for growth by many are actually backed as winners by those in the industry. So lets start with a loser first. Perhaps surprisingly M-health, which is backed as an area of investment by bodies such as the GSMA and other quasi-governmental bodies, didnt

What has had the biggest impact on mobile operators in 2010?

Fairly clear agreement here with 56% of the sample thinking that of the choices we gave, the biggest challenge operators faced in 2010 was dealing with the growth in data traffic. Call it the capacity crunch, the data profit gap, the revenue squeeze. Whatever term you want to apply, the simple fact was that growth in data traffic brought with it several headaches, from aligning mobile backhaul to meet demand, to providing enough mobile radio capacity in the most heavily used cell sites, to remaining profitable in a flatrate data environment. It was interesting to see that sorting out an app strategy came second, on 13.4%, ahead of 11% thinking preparing for LTE or 9.8% ticking the finding new services to launch option. This might be because the app business has been very high profile, and of course brings with it lots of associated challenges related to business models, co-opetition and the like. Yet in terms of impact on operators revenues in 2010, the app store would have been a small part.

What services do you believe will have the biggest impact on mobile operators' business cases in 2011?
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Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

both in terms of the positive the opportunity, and the negative the risk involved.

What will be operators' top network investment priority in 2011?

And so to the bearers of all of this the networks themselves. We asked fairly simple questions, what would be the top priority for investment in the network. We split backhaul into two sectors so we could break that down a little further. But the results showed us that LTE is thought by 37.6% of you to be the likely highest investment priority. But that still leaves a majority of you who do not think LTE will be the number one area in 2011 despite the fact that 2011 is likely to be viewed by many as the year in which operators clear the way for widespread commercial LTE rollouts in Europe in 2012. In a bullish second with 23.5% of the vote came the area of traffic optimisation and control. This of course is interesting as it speaks both to the capacity crunch issues, and of getting more from less, and also to the large industry topics of net neutrality and being able to enforce policies and traffic control in the network. Backhaul, for so long a major headache for operators facing the rapid rise in traffic volumes, totalled 10.6% of your vote, with 8.2% of you thinking fibre backhaul will be the number one area of network investment, and 8.2% of you thinking microwave will be the lead area. Thats interesting, partly because backhaul has been such a hot topic, but also because fibre based backhaul is still limited in many European markets. Femtocells proved they were worthy of a separate category, with 8.2% of you rating them as a key investment priority for mobile operators. Thats a pretty hefty number for something that is, in essence, just one part of an operators overall network strategy, and is also designed to be a low cost, low overhead, solution. Network sharing probably shouldnt be in here, as its hard to class it as a investment priority, but we wanted to include it somehow, given its likely strategic importance, and it seems enough of you agreed (7.1%) to back up our hunch and make it worth including.

get many of you going at all. The questions phrasing may have had something to do with that, but the subject is still way down on all the others, apart from the deliberately-placed trip-up question of video calling. That was included to see if there was any appetite out there for a mobile-operator led service push on the back of Apples FaceTime. There wasnt clearly too many of you have been round the video-calling block once too often. There was more appetite for mobile video, however, perhaps influenced by the realisation that as appetite for mobile video grows, it will have an increasing impact on mobile operators business cases in terms of resource consumption and, attendant on that, profitability. As you can see here, App Stores once again top the chart in a spread field, with many of you choosing it as an area that will have the biggest impact on operators business cases. M-payments and mobile money made it into second, with a pretty even spread amongst enterprise services, mobile advertising, M2M and VoIP. Again I think this represents people seeing impact on the business model

What will be the biggest priority in the areas of business systems, process and management?
This question points to the often unheralded part of an operators business, the IT systems and the back office stuff that manages the networks, rates, charges and bills for services, mediates between partner providers, and monitors and ensures the customer experience. It was perhaps not surprising that Customer Experience Management topped the poll at 46.4%, given it can be a slightly catch-all terms for customer service, network monitoring and service assurance. But it surely is testament to the fact that there is now widespread awareness that customer service is now so much more than a call centre transaction/ wrangling over a free upgrade or a loss of service. Instead, with customers much more important as influencers, and with so many channels for potential damage to brand reputation,
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Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

operators need to be on top of what individual users are experiencing and be able to target high value or high influencer customers. If you dont believe the value of this, you probably werent one of the 46% who plumped for it in our poll. You may instead have been one of the 17.9% that chose policy control and management as the biggest priority for operators. Arguably, this category could have been included under the network question, but we placed it here as it is a business function as much as it is a network element (letters on a postcard to the usual address, please). Anyway, suffice to say that policy control and management is sure to be a major topic during 2011, however you categorise it. It was also interesting to see service delivery platforms score so highly at 16.7%, but perhaps there was a feeling that the way operators are being challenged on service delivery from third parties has put a renewed emphasis on their own service delivery platforms. Whatever, there is little doubt that customer experience management was the clear winner in this segment.

Which companies do you think will make the biggest impression in 2011?
We asked you for your most likely answers and for a few left field ones. And what we got was: Steve Jobs, lots and lots and lots of times. Perhaps we can let this one answer stand as a representative of that vote: Steve Jobs, because the whole mobile app ecosystem and the mobile ad ecosystem will be directly affected by Apple's decisions, especially with regards to mobile payments, and a new unified micro-SIM subscription model. All other companies just copy Apple's every move. Or perhaps another one, Steve Jobs based on his single handed ability through Apple to shake up the entire value chain. Or even this one, Device Development drives the industry, so the I-Pad and its copies are the future. Get the picture? Second to Jobs was Eric Schmidt, or to those who couldnt even be bothered to look him up, The ceo of Google. Several of you went for a more regulatory path, naming Neelie Kroes, EU commissionner of the Digital Agenda, as someone who will have great impact in 2011. Generally this was because of the effect she is thought to have on roaming tariffs, but also because, according to one respondent, She will give more incentives for investments in broadband technologies. As for European-based mobile leaders, the cupboard seemed quite bare, although Ben Verwaayen, the Alcatel-Lucent CEO, grabbed a few votes. Quite a few of you said something like the next Zuckerberg or similar. Which is fine, except we were hoping for an insight as to who that might be. Fair enough, though. Predictions can make a fool of us all, no doubt.

Steve Jobs - clearly delighted to have topped our poll.

Which companies do you think will make the biggest impression in 2011?
And so to the question that has you wondering if you will see your own company in the mix. It may make sense to break this down into operators, device vendors, and others. Amongst the operators, the most nominated company was Vodafone, which was nominated about as often as all the other operators put together. Of the rest, Orange and Telefonica had the most votes, followed by Verizon and TMobile. I guess thats a question of people voting for what they know, but also recognising the commercial reality of the market influence of the major group operators. Aside from the operators, there was the expected rush for Apple, which was the overall most-nominated company. Not too far behind was Google. There were occasional mentions for HTC, Samsung and RIM, but not too many. None, not one in all the answers, for Nokia. Dell did, however take a few votes, with one respondent commending them for disruptive mobility devices. Perhaps there werent any Nokia employees taking our poll, as we clearly had some of our entrants nominating their own companies, mentioning no names! Away from the OS platforms and device vendors the other name that came through very strongly was on the network equipment side was Huawei. Clearly, people are still backing Huawei to continue to make ground with its devices-to-service-to-hardware play, and all at unbeatable prices. And who would bet against it in 2011? Not our readers, it seems. NSN got one or two nods in this area, but precious few of the other major vendors made much of an impact, which is somewhat surprising. Apart from these, we also liked the answers Chinese ones we don't know yet, Non-telcos driving wholesale partnerships with telcos and Paypal - I'm surprised they haven't done anything in mobile to date (which might be both good news and bad news for PayPal!).
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Which subjects do you think are currently over hyped, and will fail to deliver to expectations in 2011?
This gave us a nice match to our questions asking what you thought the top priorities would be in 2011. So LTE scored very, very highly. In fact it was the runaway winner. Heres a taster of why. Not because there is anything especially wrong with it, but the hype cycle is a constant and LTE is in the phase where it will get a kicking in 2011. Or this LTE - why are you always writing about it? (ouch) or even, just to hammer the point home, LTE / 4G - wait until 2012 please! Or even this, LTE not till 2014. Right. Thats noted, then. Perhaps also calling us on another area weve written about quite a bit, but also on the wider media agenda, the next highest target for the over-hyped badge was femtocells. There was less explanation here, but plenty of people willing to drop the f word into the hype cycle. There were also many votes for mobile advertising, and mobile marketing, with some not buying the argument that the area deserves its prominence as a potential money maker. There were also harsh words for Apple and the fixation with Apple, and for Windows 7 and Android. See the following for an example of frustrations with hype around these OS. Windows Phone 7: it's a complete dud, will crash miserably. Android is clearly overhyped; the reality is that the market (where the money is) is still strongly driven by Nokia, Apple, Samsung, and RIM. Android will not be relevant moneywise until 2012.

Eric Schimidt - puts a brave face on second place

Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

RANT BOX
ROAMING FEES

We asked you to get off your chest issues that really resonated with you. Heres what you said.

European Data Roaming fees will be a major obstacle to business development. Mobile data roaming must become substantially cheaper for retail customers, otherwise the industry risks further regulation on EU level Who will be the first operator to offer roaming in other EU countries at same cost as home network if using the same network (or partner) abroad? Four years ago Celtel and Safaricom/Vodacom rolled out no-extra-charge roaming between Kenya/Uganda/Tanzania and I believe have now extended across Africa allowing you to travel from East to West Africa without paying any more for calls than when at home. For once, we can say Europe is way behind Africa!

COVERAGE, CAPACITY AND SPEED

Stop excuses about poor network coverage because if they started to share infrastructure O2 controlled the iphone 3G, but has the worst 3G network ! Stop bragging ever-growing mobile broadband speeds if barely 10% of that is practically achievable by a user

APPS and BUSINESS MODELS

Mobile operators trying to launch their own app stores is pathetic and doomed to failure. Instead, they should enable easier mobile payments with better outpayments for other app stores and m-commerce initiatives from retailers. Operators need to get real and understand they are being cut out of the value chain - they need to share their data in an aggregated way so they can add some value back to the services the customer wants to access and will anyway without their help Please guys do something about your wholesale business model. You need to move faster than you think. Come together and charge Google for access to the client, make use of client ownership. It really needs to stop thinking of mobile as just a delivery channel or bit-pipe. They need to see themselves as having a really valuable part to play in the value chain.

DATA PLANS
Data plans need to come at a friendlier price, unlimited, and with a scalability to handle large data streams. Mobile Operators: Not interested in your app stores, music services or anything else you offer as add on services. It smells of desperation for revenue, and I don't need what you're offering! Give me cheap calls, international calls and cheap fast reliable 3G (or LTE/WiMAX in future) and I will stick with you.

INNOVATION
The whole industry should be more innovative. At the moment all the inventions come from US and Asian companies. Poor results for a continent calling itself (ed - well never know what the continent calls itself as the rant ended here) Under investment in Start-ups/Innovation In general, operators need to realise that working with software developers (eg, via app stores, developer programs, etc) is not a strength. they should outsource this responsibility to third parties such as Microsoft, Oracle, etc Too few innovations made by Mobile Operators in Europe in general... Prices too high from a consumer perspective...

MARKETING
Why are carriers so useless at marketing? Real marketing: listening to customers and inventing new products. All of the innovation happens "over the top" and that only works when it is invisible to the carrier - there are a host of clever things that could be done if only carriers were more imaginative. The last real innovative product was probably PAYG and that is ten years ago. Why do we speak the language of the technology providers and not the language of the consumer? LTE / 4G / Gigabits / Terabits -it's all bollocks to the people that pay for it!

HANDSET MANUFACTURERS
Handset manufacturers: Stop trying to BE Apple. Be more innovative in smartphone design and do your own thing. Compete by offering the best most innovative new smartphones and change the game, instead of trying to win the game according to Apple's rules of what the winning device must be. Nokia - The N97 was a failure, the N900 was unfinished when released and had very poor battery power/life and was a "work in progress", the E7 again has a 1200mAh non-removable battery and has had other features limited. Nokia are in real danger here and falling WAY behind on hardware whilst they mess around with OVI and other pointless exercises such as more or less proprietary OS such as Symbian/Maemo/Meego. The E7 will be -like the N97- underwhelming, late to release and buggy - I have little doubt of that. The N9 will be make or break for Nokia who have been clueless for some time.
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DONT UNDERESTIMATE SUBSCRIPTION GROWTH

Management consulting firm Northstream has identified its annual top five trends for the worldwide mobile industry in 2011. Bengt Nordstrom, CEO of independent strategic management consultancy Northstream, predicts accelerated subscription growth for the next five years, which will start in 2011
ccording to analyst firm ABI Research two billion people worldwide are now covered by a mobile broadband network. Of all the worlds regions, Europe leads the way in terms of the most mobile broadband networks deployed. In Europe alone, at the start of 2010 over 140 operators were already offering commercial HSPA services (GSA The Global mobile Supplier Association). This increased availability of mobile broadband will now drive the global mobile market beyond 10 billion subscriptions by 2015. Traditionally cellular connections have been counted as voice and messaging connections. However, the widespread availability of mobile broadband, both in Europe and further afield, will change this paradigm: in 2011, Northstream expects data-only subscriptions will become an important part of the equation. The data-only market used to consist of data modems for laptop users, but then along came the new generation of connected devices. In North America, AT&T has seen total growth in connected devices increase by 137% between Q309 and Q310 - strong evidence that suggests the market is set to take off elsewhere in the world. Last year Amazons Kindle set the pace, and new products in the tablet space - such as the iPad - are also now driving the connected device market to the next phase. Market analysts such as iSuppli have already rechecked their tablet sales estimates. They originally predicted that single function eReaders would enjoy 40% CAGR between 2009 and 2014: however, they now accept that devices like the iPad and its peers could experience ten times that growth. Other analysts have similarly been forced to double their tablet sales estimates for this year in accordance with extraordinary demand (Gartner increased its forecast of 10.5 million tablet sales up to 19.5 million for this year). The telecoms industry has traditionally been cautious regarding subscription growth estimates. Analysts expect mobile subscription growth rates to gradually decline after 2011. In Europe, the industry expects near-stagnant growth: Informa T&M forecasts mobile subscription growth in Europe of just 1% in 2011 2012. However, Northstream believes that these estimates may well prove

to be wrong as the tablet market continues its current rapid growth rate. The Northstream prediction of growth from 5.2 billion mobile connections today worldwide to 10 billion by 2015 may sound aggressive. However, we identify the following factors as likely to deliver this growth: T Sustained growth of voice subscriptions in emerging markets T Growth in data-only subscriptions, mobile broadband access and connected devices in, firstly, developed markets but also, latterly, developing countries such as China and India T Growth of M2M deployments beyond consumer devices. Many current connection estimates and forecasts for M2M technology are far too conservative. More widespread mobile broadband take-up will drive M2M applications across new vertical markets such as automotive, utilities and security. Tablet devices will blaze a trail for this growth and will pave the way for other connected gadgets. Gartner estimates that tablet sales will reach almost 55 million units next year: some analysts have even bolder forecasts of around 70 million tablets sold (FBR Capital Markets expects 70 million tablets to be sold next year). If the

Another driver: Amazons Kindle

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number of devices is somewhere between 50 and 70 million units, and assuming that 80-90% of these devices will have a cellular connection, this would bring nearly 50 million net additions to worldwide mobile connections in 2011. This is a substantial development, bearing in mind that tablets are after all only one part of the wider connected device market. Despite continued subscription growth, both in emerging and mature Western and European markets, operator margins are under pressure. We can expect this to continue in 2011: ARPU from existing customers is declining, and new subscriptions are not making up for this loss. The underlying reasons are different in emerging and mature markets, but the consequences are the same operators face a continued need to improve the efficiency of their operations. In emerging markets, the ongoing organic growth in voice subscriptions means that operators in these regions will need to reconsider how to cost-efficiently address the lower-income subscriber net additions. Meanwhile, in mature markets (including Europe), expect operators to focus more on how to efficiently facilitate the lower ARPU mobile broadband and M2M connections. Provisioning, in particular, is one area that needs simplification in order to fit the needs of the connected devices segment. Finally, European operators will also need to develop appropriate policy management tools for mobile broadband subscriptions to manage increasing traffic load. This might be nothing new, but operators will have to adapt to these changes much sooner than they probably expected. Nordstrom was writing for Mobile Europe shortly after his company released a fuller set off forecasts for 2011. Two other areas that report focussed on were LTE and video calling. to meet the requirements of a majority of mobile consumers. The current status quo is unlikely to last forever however as more and more operators hunt for additional capacity to satisfy the needs of an increasingly bandwidth-hungry mobile consumer. Enter LTE. LTE requires additional spectrum however and the technology-neutral bands currently on offer are leading to fragmentation, frustrating chipset and device manufacturers. This fragmentation means that chipset and device providers are having to target specific regions where spectrum is available to support the delivery of LTE services to mobile consumers. Among markets launching LTE next year, larger countries like the US and Germany are likely to get the highest attention from device manufacturers while smaller markets may lose out near term. LTE terminals will continue to be made available in 2011 but will mainly consist of data-centric dongles and WiFi routers. These will be launched with premium pricing models that will reduce in time to provide mobile operators with a potential DSL killer within two years. Widespread LTE enabled smartphones will be available beyond 2011, when there will be sufficient choice to interest mobile consumers and a proven LTE voice solution will have been found.

The iPad, Northstream backs tablets to blaze a trail for subscriber growth

Mobile video calling:

Although mobile video services were launched approximately ten years ago, a hopeless user interface on handsets at the time, coupled with high prices and inadequate network bandwidth meant they were set up to fail. Today, that has changed and the latest devices, including most notably the iPhone 4, now boasts impressive face-facing cameras, a large high-res display and interactive applications that can switch between a standard voice call and a WiFi-enabled video call by the touch of a screen. Note that Apple reversed a recent trend of not equipping 3G phones with front cameras. Can these improvements finally prove the use case for mobile video calling? Northstream thinks so. Despite just 1% of existing 3G calls being video enabled, Skype claims that its share of video calls stands at 40% of total customer interactions. This proves that an attractive market for video calling potentially exists. Furthermore, the number of video call enabled Apple devices alone is set to exceed 100 million over the next twelve months with equivalent applications from the likes of Tango and fring also expected to take off. Cisco is likely to launch a consumer version of its video conferencing system. On the mobile side, as the call is made either through WiFi or your unlimited data rate plan there is no cost threshold hampering usage. Northstream predicts that Apple and its peers are about to achieve in one year what 3G operators have failed to do in 10. 2011 is the year that mobile video calling finally takes off and it will have nothing to do with 3GPP video standards.
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LTE in 2011:
LTE momentum is moving in to a period of sustained high pressure. There have been nine commercial LTE deployments this year and a further 44 additional launches are anticipated for 2011. In total, 113 operators have publically committed to the technology across 46 different countries with 43 LTE trials currently in operation. Despite this strong growth, LTE faces an unpredictable future in 2011 with its sustained global deployment being impacted by a variety of different factors. A vast majority of global Mobile Broadband momentum rests with HSPA as the technology continues

Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

A YEAR OF TRANSFORMATION FOR MOBILE IT, FROM IDC

ransformation has been a recurring theme in the annual International Data Corporation (IDC) Predictions over the past several years. During this time, a wave of disruptive technologies has emerged and evolved, forged by the pressures of a global economic recession. In 2011, and certainly beyond, IDC expects these technologies cloud services, mobile computing, and social networking to mature and coalesce into a new mainstream platform for both the IT industry and the industries it serves. "In 2011, we expect to see these transformative technologies make the critical transition from early adopter status to early mainstream adoption," said Frank Gens, senior vice president and chief analyst at IDC. "As a result, we'll see the IT industry revolving more and more around the build-out and adoption of this next dominant platform, characterized by mobility, cloudbased application and service delivery, and valuegenerating overlays of social business and pervasive analytics. In addition to creating new markets and opportunities, this restructuring will overthrow nearly every assumption about who the industry's leaders will be and how they establish and maintain leadership." The platform transition will be fueled by another solid year of recovery in IT spending. IDC forecasts worldwide IT spending will be $1.6 trillion in 2011, an increase of 5.7% over 2010. While hardware spending will remain strong (7.8% year-over-year growth), the industry will depend to a larger extent on improvements in software spending (5.3% growth) and related project-based services spending (3.5% growth), as well as gains in outsourcing (4% growth). Worldwide IT spending will also benefit from the accelerated recovery in emerging markets, which will generate more than half of all net new IT spending worldwide in 2011. Spending on public IT cloud services will grow at more than five times the rate of the IT industry in 2011, up 30% from 2010, as organizations move a wider range of business applications into the cloud. Small and medium-sized business cloud use will surge in 2011, with adoption of some cloud resources topping 33% among U.S. midsize firms by year's end. Meanwhile, the more nascent private cloud model will continue to evolve as infrastructure, software, and service providers collaborate on a range of new offerings and solutions. Meanwhile, the vendor battle for two cloud "power positions" will be joined to determine on whose cloud platform will solutions be deployed, and who will provide coherent IT management across multiple public clouds, customers' private clouds, and their legacy IT environments.

Mobile computing on a variety of devices and through a range of new applications will continue to explode in 2011, forming another critical plank in the new industry platform. IDC expects shipments of app-capable, non-PC mobile devices (smartphones, media tablets, etc.) will outnumber PC shipments within the next 18 months and there will be no looking back. While vendors with a PC heritage will scramble to secure their position in this rapidly expanding market, another battle will be taking place for dominance in the mobile apps market. The level of activity in this market will be staggering, with IDC expecting nearly 25 billion mobile apps to be downloaded in 2011, up from just over 10 billion in 2010. Over time, the still-emerging apps ecosystems promise to fundamentally restructure the channels for all digital content and services to consumers. Meanwhile, social business software has gained significant momentum in the enterprise over the past 18 months and this trend is expected to continue with IDC forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 38% through 2014. In a sure sign that social business has hit the mainstream, IDC expects 2011 to be a year of consolidation as the major software vendors acquire social software providers to jump-start or increase their social business footprint. Meanwhile, the use of social platforms by small and medium-sized businesses will accelerate, with more than 40% of SMBs using social networks for promotional purposes by the year's end. As the new mainstream IT platform coalesces in the months ahead, IDC expects it to lay a foundation for IT vendors to support, and profit from, a variety of "intelligent industry" transformations. In retail, mobility and social networking are rapidly changing consumers' shopping experience as they bring their smartphones into the store for on-site price comparisons and product recommendations. In financial services, mobility and the cloud are bringing mobile banking and payments closer to reality. In the healthcare industry, IDC expects 14% of adult Americans to use a mobile health application in 2011. "What really distinguishes the year ahead is that these disruptive technologies are finally being integrated What really distinguishes the with each other cloud with mobile, year ahead is that these disruptive mobile with social networking, social technologies are finally being networking with 'big data' and real-time analytics," added Gens. "As a result, integrated with each other cloud these once-emerging technologies can with mobile, mobile with social no longer be invested in, or managed, networking, social networking with as sandbox efforts around the edges of the market. Instead, they are rapidly 'big data' and real-time analytics. becoming the market itself and must be addressed accordingly."

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12 PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

By Ben Wood, Director of Research at CSS Insight 1
Apple to buy TomTom. The move will be motivated by a desire to own the mapping assets of Tele Atlas and reduce Apple's dependence on Google for map services. A by-product of the acquisition will be securing significant intellectual property rights to turn-by-turn navigation and personal navigation devices, as Apple continues to fight court battles over patent claims. TomTom assets will enable richer location-based services on Apple devices and on its MobileMe service. A variety of mapping and location APIs are released to the Apple development community, fuelling more innovative applications. Nintendo to launch "DS Mobile", a connected portable gaming device, by 2012. Like Amazon, Nintendo will make a wholesale air time agreement with a global provider such as AT&T. Users will also be able to activate cellular connectivity retrospectively and swap games using WiFi. Cellular connectivity will also be used for access to cloud-based community services such as review charts and high-score tables. 3D becomes a major theme on mobile devices in 2011 but mobile 3D displays flatter to deceive. High-end phones and tablets will be able to record and play back 3D content, but the capability proves little more than a gimmick. Early 3D screens that do not need special glasses start to emerge beyond Japan, but consumers are disappointed by the results. In 2012 Apple will unveil the "iScreen", a connected screen for the home to replace traditional TVs and offers the following capabilities: TV, PC, games console and a "life stream" of cloudbased services such as photos, videos and social networking. Apple devices will double as accessories such as games controllers by exploiting the accelerometer, gyroscope and other sensors. Apple will extend its established iTunes service model to the iScreen. Sales of tablets beyond Apple's iPad will fail to meet over-optimistic expectations. All leading mobile device manufacturers will produce tablets, leading to overstocking by distribution channels and inventory problems. A period of discounting will see margins slip to zero to clear channel excesses. Low-cost Android tablets will irrevocably damage consumer perceptions and dent the market's potential. Facebook buys Skype and launches a calling service within its mobile applications. The acquisition of Skype would provide Facebook with a huge group of users that complements its own. Functionality will be quickly added to enable a small telephone symbol next to Facebook contacts that are online. Initially the service will be restricted to Wi-Fi connections, but the potential for expansion will be clear. Operators will be powerless to stop this trend and they will see their revenue from roaming calls dip further.

Sales of tablets beyond Apple's iPad will fail to meet overoptimistic expectations. All leading mobile device manufacturers will produce tablets, leading to overstocking by distribution channels and inventory problems.

Concern grows over addiction to mobile devices, particularly among the under-25s. So-called 'screenagers' enter the workplace suffering from attention deficit disorder and unable to fulfil basic requirements such as simple face-to-face social interactions. Phonemakers, network operators and Web service providers face a barrage of negative publicity. Huge growth in video-based services driven by an audience that prefers to watch clips rather than read text on a mobile screen will have catastrophic effects on mobile networks . Operators will have to take drastic action and adjust tariffs to temper this behaviour. They
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will also rely more on subscription services that attract a premium for content, such as live sport. This will provoke fierce debate about operators' obligation to take a neutral approach to content delivery.

Operators will focus on speed and quality of service rather than number of gigabytes when marketing mobile data. They will introduce tariffs that offer tiered service levels tied to an allocated volume of data. Ironically, although this will change the way services are sold, data volume will remain important as improved bandwidth and quality of service could result in greater demand.

10 Operators will pay subsidies based on the data efficiency of a software platform, favouring
BlackBerry over iOS and Android. We predict that in 2011 operators will begin to differentiate their tariffs and device subsidies to prompt users to consider less data-hungry devices and operating systems. The more strain a device places on the network, the less subsidy it will attract.

Operators will focus on speed and quality of service rather than number of gigabytes when marketing mobile data. They will introduce tariffs that offer tiered service levels tied to an allocated volume of data.

11

Chrome OS becomes a 'problem child' for Google: The speed of Android's adoption on tablets will leave Chrome largely focused on the moribund netbook sector and force Google to rethink Chrome's cloud computing model.

12 'Dual-core' will be the new 'gigahertz'. Having previously marketed mobile phones based on the number of megapixels and gigabytes of storage,
manufacturers will keep the focus on processors, but shift from speed to multi-core computing. We expect to see devices advertised as "twice the speed" and "the most powerful smartphone" owing to a dual-core processor, even though such claims do not reflect true performance.

JUNIPERS 10 PREDICTIONS FOR MOBILE IN 2011

1
Surging Mobile Data Traffic Will Continue to Test 3G Network Capacity As we predicted at the end of last year, 2010 was the year in which the surge in mobile data traffic, driven by the consumer smartphone boom, began to place the 3G networks under severe strain. A number of network operators have responded by introducing tiered data pricing a trend which will undoubtedly increase but as smartphone adoption continues apace, network capacity will be sorely tested in 2011. Tiered pricing (and the use of WiFi as capacity relief) may serve to alleviate the problem to a certain extent, but until we see mass deployments of LTE networks (and, equally important, devices that are LTE-capable), then operators face a nervous period of attempting to manage the transition. Augmented Reality to Enhance Mobile Games and Retail Augmented Reality, or AR, has largely been used in local search and reference applications thus far, but is now attracting the attention of the retail industry. Given its potential to geotag products or locations with brand/campaign-specific information, as we near the end of 2010 a raft of major retailers and brands (including eBay, H&M and Carlsberg) are releasing apps with an AR element. With Apple opening its accelerometer and gyroscope APIs to mobile Safari developers, there is also an opportunity for AR-enabled web-based apps. Also expect to see an increasing number of AR-based games THQ Wireless forthcoming Star Wars Arcade: Falcon Gunner likely to be the first of many such titles. Cloud-Based Operating Systems are Launched So far mobile operating systems have followed their PC-based cousins, the structure for which was formulated when the web was in its infancy. Consequently, with the web having taken-off, for some time now industry figures have been talking about the potential for applications to run from a cloud. Google announced the start of new project, the Chrome cloud OS in 2009; and the latest is that it will be launched in early 2011. With network reach and reliability reaching a point where cloud-based solutions can be considered viable, and remote servers already being used to allow the mobile internet and email, we believe 2011 will see the launch of the first cloud OS for mobile.

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Mobile Europes ones to watch 2011

Mobile Banking will become a must-have when opening a new account Banks in developed countries will harness the power of the app and the smartphone to provide their customers with a much improved and personalised service experience. The sign-up process will be a simple box to tick in account opening processes (where it isnt already) from banks that are keen to make life easier for customers by proving the ability to manage their money on the move in what might otherwise be dead time. Mobile Devices Begin to Replace Credit Cards 2011 looks like the year when, in some countries at least, using your phone as a credit card for lower value purchases will become a reality. Google recently announced that NFC (Near Field Communication) technology will be supported in the next release of Android 2.3 or Gingerbread; a natural step, given it already offers several mobile commerce apps and services including shopping, coupons and products search. Also, Nokias C7 handset has an NFC chip included, which will be activated in 2011, and rumours of Apples next iPhone including NFC refuse to die down. A word of caution: it wont all happen at once as stores need to deploy contactless readers, and more problematically, it is dependent on user preference; however, as with Bluetooth and cameras, we will see NFC in new devices whether we want it or not. Mobile Handsets Become Even More Sensitive Locational and sensory features on smartphones, such as, accelerometers, gyroscopes, and GPS, have been key drivers in application development and handset manufacturers will be keen to add more killer features to their devices to give them that edge. With the aforementioned features becoming as standard, vendors are already looking to incorporate others, such as, proximity, temperature, biometrics, 3D displays, and projectors, into their handsets. Mobile Lottery Tickets Sales to Soar Fuelled by Deployments in US, Europe, and China With lottery sales from traditional distribution channels in decline in many developed markets notably the US national/state lottery organisers are anxious to explore new means of distribution, and Juniper Research believes 2011 is the year when mobile lotteries will hit the mainstream. As consumers across all age ranges become more comfortable with browsing for content and making purchases via the mobile handset, this major hurdle to mobile lotteries will begin to disappear. We expect a raft of mobile lottery launches across the US and Europe, while VODones existing service in China (which already has more than 10 million registered users) is likely to experience further significant growth. Mobile-Specific Threats Lead to Demand for Mobile-Specific Security With the growing number of open WiFi networks, and antivirus vendor Kaspersky reporting the first virus designed to disrupt Googles Android operating system, the risks for smartphone users will increase in 2011. Antivirus and firewalls have been a must-have for PC users for some time, and with mobile handset featuring a wider array of connectivity options and less secure ones the lure for vigilantes and criminals is even greater. In light of this, anti-virus software vendors such as Kaspersky and McAfee are likely to make a concerted effort to sell into the mobile space in 2011. Buyouts Take Social Purchasing to a New Level Google is heavily rumoured to be keen on purchasing Groupon, a company which sends users offers on products and services, but rather than providing a coupon, manages the transaction, taking a share of the proceeds. We expect a similar impact on this model from a Google acquisition as we saw with mobile advertising, when it purchased AdMob.

10 More Vendors Develop a GreenHeart

Sony Ericssons GreenHeart mantra lead to the Sony Ericsson Elm, a handset made from recycled plastics and free of hazardous chemicals, and comes with a low power consumption charger, reduced packaging, some eco-aware apps and an e-manual on the phone instead of a printed guide. Given this move, we expect other vendors to go down a similar route, in order to appeal to the increasingly-environmentally conscious consumer.
Augmented Reality, here from Layar, is tipped by Juniper Mobile Europe | 31

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Predictions

2011
the industry view
We have read what you, the readers, make of the opportunities for specific services and markets in 2011. And we have also seen what the analysts and forecasters, those professional soothsayers, have to say. But what of those who work in the industry itself, making this future possible? This section contains essays from seven industry-leading companies, all working in areas identified by our survey as likely to be Ones to Watch in 2011. We thought it would be good to ask the companies themselves what they make of the opportunities 2011 offers them. So Alcatel-Lucent addresses the femtocell opportunity, particularly as it applies to LTE. Monitise takes on the role of mobile payments and NFC in 2011, one of the highest ranking services in our poll. Addressing different aspects of the Customer Experience Management theme are Arantech, EXFO and WeDo touching on service assurance, LTE, and cultural battles as they go. Finally, CommProve addresses what operators can do around roaming, one of the topics that attracted most ire in our rant box section.

MOBILE EUROPE

Id like to thank all the participating companies for backing, and contributing to, our look ahead to 2011. Keith Dyer, Editor, Mobile Europe

Sponsored Article

SMALL CELLS ROLE IN 2011 THE LTE SOLUTION

Mobile operators planning their 4G LTE networks in 2011 should view femtocells as an integral part of their network architecture. Femtocells can help operators tap diverse revenue streams while also delivering on subscribers expectations for seamless mobile broadband coverage. They will form a crucial aspect of LTE nework plans in 2011.
perators head into 2011 in the midst of staggering growth in mobile internet traffic that few expected. As well as the emergence of the iPhone and Android, there are now dozens of devices and operating systems supporting non-traditional mobile applications such as social media, gaming, productivity tools, location-based services, navigation and book readers. On top of this is a growing army of HSPA data users that either utilise mobile broadband as their principal source of internet connectivity at home, or as an alternative to Wi-Fi for connectivity out and about. The end result is mobile networks drowning in data traffic. Investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts that global mobile internet traffic will grow 39 fold between 2010 and 2014, exceeding two terabytes per month. Informa Telecoms & Media estimates by 2015, the average US smartphone user will consume 776MB per month, ten times what they do today. One tactical response to this insatiable demand for data has been to try to curb demand. Fair use policies may have stopped the bandwidth hogs, but they have done little to stem the overall demand as millions more mobile subscribers are turned on to smartphone devices. Another response has been to try to alleviate the strain on the radio access network by offloading mobile internet traffic onto Wi-Fi hotspots. Not only has this had only limited success, it is unlikely to be a sustainable solution, as we will discuss later. A third response has been to hang in there until new spectrum is released. Operators may soon have access to 3G extension bands, be allowed to refarm their GSM spectrum for 3G/4G use, and may benefit from the analogue TV switch off (sometimes called the Digital Dividend). This relief, however, may be short lived. Even with LTEs spectral efficiency, there is no escaping the fact that spectrum will always be a limited resource, yet subscribers appetites are seemingly insatiable. We believe that 2011 will see a broad acceptance of the view that the only sustainable solution for

LTE network design is to redesign the radio access network to manage the available spectrum more efficiently. There are several reasons why we believe femtocells will be best suited to that need for efficient spectrum management.

CHALLENGES OF RELYING SOLELY ON WI-FI

Wi-Fi offloading has so far had limited success. But could it play a role in future network design? Aside from the reality that not all mobile devices are Wi-Fi enabled, Wi-Fi technology is best suited to simple wireless internet access for stationary users. Mobile devices, on the other hand, need to be mobile. Firstly, Wi-Fi suffers from significant interference problems as the access point density grows. This is because Wi-Fi access points cannot regulate their power output so access points in close proximity can drown each other out (co-channel interference) leading to coverage black holes. If mobile operators were to rollout, or commission, thousands of new Wi-Fi access points to offload growing mobile data traffic, they would be pushing Wi-Fi beyond its capabilities. For each new access point installed, the interference results in the effectiveness of an established one being diminished. This is non-linear growth. And an additional reason why Wi-Fi is not an ideal offload technology is the user experience. Assuming a mobile subscriber has Wi-Fi and that they have the capability turned on, they must still voluntarily log-on to an access point. If they move between access points (i.e they are mobile), the session will drop and a new access point will need to be found. Even when stationary, a session can

We believe that 2011 will see broad acceptance that the only sustainable solution for LTE design is to redesign the radio access network to manage the available spectrum more efficiently...we believe femtocells will be best suited to that need for efficient spectrum management.

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Predictions 2011
end if the access point becomes over-crowded, which is a frequent occurrence with hotspots in busy locations. Because Wi-Fi is best effort, there is no inherent ability to reserve capacity for individual users.

THE LARGE VALUE OF SMALL CELLS

Femtocells, because they use the same radio technology as the rest of the network, do not have these problems. Unlike Wi-Fi, femtocells are selforganizing. When a user device is in close proximity to a femtocell, both radiate less power which means less battery drain in the user device, and less energy used by the access point. The presence of another access point on the same frequency nearby will cause the femtocell to regulate its power output so that there is seamless coverage from an end user perspective. Consequently for every additional femtocell you install, you get one additional femtocell capacity. Unlike Wi-Fi, this is linear growth, and ultimately more cost effective. On top of that femtocells provide a seamless experience. Users do not need to manually authenticate and when they move around their session automatically hands over to the next femtocell or macro cell without interruption, and because there is inherent quality of service, they will not be crowded out by other users. Because of these qualities, femtocells are able to play a much larger role then simply offloading traffic or coverage infill. Femtocells could become the beating heart of a new architecture.

Figure 1: Utilising Different Layers to Deliver the Best Quality of Experience

THE HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK

The physical limitations of current and future spectrum bands mean that operators need to rethink the way they build their networks, depending less on a macro cells only is sufficient strategy to one that combines the advantages of the macro cell with those of femtocell. We call this heterogeneous network. Figure 1 shows how the network can be built in layers, leveraging the existing 3G network for wide area coverage; 4G macro cells for providing targeted urban coverage; and various types and sizes of femtocells delivering surgical coverage where usage is most concentrated. Around 70% of mobile device usage is indoors, yet macro cells can only penetrate walls, steel and glass when their power is turned up. Small cells can support indoor users much more effectively and efficiently. For instance, a residential femtocell delivers 2-4 channels of simultaneous connections to registered users within a very small radius. Larger enterprise femtocells can work together to cover an

entire building, with integration into a corporate IP-PBX and a single subscriber management function. In public spaces, network coverage can be provided by metro femtocells offering 32-64 channels to shoppers, diners or travelers. Femtocells can also be used effectively outdoors. Metro femtocells can be used to cover a small community that does not have the subscriber density to justify a macro cell. Alternatively, with directional antennae, femtocells can provide coverage in topographically challenged areas, much more cost effectively than a macro cell can. Combining these different network layers can deliver a seamless service. At home the subscribers mobile internet sessions are routed through the residential femtocell; on their commute into the city, their service is delivered by the wide-area 3G. Once in the city, data sessions are delivered by urban 4G LTE macro cells. As the subscriber stops for coffee and a croissant, service is then routed via a metro femtocell. As they walk into their office next door, data sessions are then routed through enterprise femtocells. Subscribers get a continuous, highquality experience, and operators can meet the data demand both geographically and during peak loads.

THE ROLE OF SON IN FEMTOCELL DEPLOYMENTS

Key to a heterogeneous network strategy is the concept of a self-organising network (SON). Algorithms manage the load-balancing between cells (data capacity); they assess the complex, evolving radio interplay between cells in close proximity (power management and device handover); they identify the type of data session the subscriber is having (e.g. voice, real-time,

Mobile Europe | 35

Sponsored Article
device and push out updated configurations and patches. This means operators no longer have to depend on subscribers to describe the symptoms of the problem or perform complex and time consuming troubleshooting tasks. For an office environment with a number of femtocells, policy-based operations can be used to remotely update or fix devices en masse, either when a fault occurs or during predefined maintenance windows, without having to dispatch an engineer. Diagnostic and configuration tools will allow operators to remotely manage the RF profile, and send updates and patches via the fixed broadband connection directly to the femtocell. This means operators will not receive countless calls from subscribers that need help with setting up their femtocell or making minor changes. This ability to reach into the femtocell and control it remotely using the same tools as those used to control macro cells, gives operators unprecedented granularity into how the network is performing and where demand is peaking. Self-organising femtocells working collaboratively with macro cells are essential to spectrum optimisation. Only by managing spectrum more intelligently will operators be able to satisfy the ever-growing demand for mobile data. Meeting the challenge of the capacity crunch, driven by increasing smartphone and mobile broadband adoption, will continue to be the number one network priority for mobile operators through 2011. We have demonstrated that by considering the deployment of femtocells as part of a heterogeneous network strategy operators will be able to efficiently deliver the promise of 4G to their users in 2011 and beyond. Learn more, visit www.Wilson-Street.com and www.alcatel-lucent.com/femto THE AUTHORS: Ben Geller Troy Blaschka Malek Shahid

streaming, download, bursty) and route the session through the appropriate cell while guarding against errant behavior such as a virusinfected device committing a denial of service attack on the network. By assessing and controlling all these parameters, SON functionality provides a means to ensure service quality. But how does an operator leap from maintaining a few thousand macro cells to potentially millions of cells? Deployment needs to be simple enough for home users, shopkeepers and IT managers to install the femtocell themselves without needing a site survey or a support call to a helpdesk. Simply plug the device into a DSL modem and it works. The femtocell will scan the local area for other cells femto and macro and modulate its power output accordingly. The SON functionality combined with the femtocells on-board intelligence means that the next generation network can be built up, on a cost-efficient, evolving basis. Density can be increased at all layers in the 3G and 4G macro layers, and the 4G femtocell layer without needing to reconfigure each cell to cooperate with its neighbours, big or small. And as spectrum will continue to be a limited resource, operators will be able to introduce more smaller cells to alleviate spectrum strain.

Figure 2: Small Cell Network Architecture

SEE INSIDE THE CELL

In addition to managing the radio interface, Motive femtocell management software lets operators perform one-to-one diagnostics to retrieve useful information about the status of a

36 | Mobile Europe

Sponsored Article

THE MOBILE MONEY REVOLUTION

Keith Dyer speaks to Monitises Chief Commercial Officer, Lee Cameron, about the development of mobile money services in 2011.
KEITH DYER:
Lee, our reader research for this issue has strongly identified mobile payments as one to watch for 2011. As a major player in the mobile payments industry, where do you think NFC stands at the moment?

LEE CAMERON:
NFC has certainly been an interesting topic to follow. I think one way of placing it in context is to grasp that we have now entered a second, more market-focussed, stage of development. Over the last few years there were over a hundred trials around the world that were mostly aimed at providing a technical proof of concept, and at gathering evidence of consumer interest. These trials served those dual purposes very well: although there are still some important technical issues that need to be addressed the basics are now clear, and the trials also provided strong proof of consumer interest in mobile payment and NFC services. Now, however, the industry is focussing on planning more consumer-centric commercial deployments. These are taking the initial trial services and developing them into applications such as over the air personalisation and integrated banking systems and services. Thats a different level of operation. Two examples of this more consumer-centric approach are the large scale European trials in Nice and Sitges that are taking place. We have also seen MicroSD emerge as an alternative to device and SIM-based NFC. Your readers may already know that we at Monitise are working with Device Fidelity in some big trials in the USA with US Bank, the fifth largest bank in the USA. Were also seeing developments in handsets. Nokias C7, for example, is an NFC handset that someone would actually want to have as their primary handset, rather than as an additional device to their proper handset.

Lee Cameron

KEITH DYER:
Do you think this recent progress means we are nearer to commercial deployments on a wider scale?

LEE CAMERON:
I think there are various people who are looking at 2011 to offer some actual commercial deployments. These wont be the things being talked about years ago which was essentially the vision of your bank accounts all fully embedded in your phone. Instead, I think we will see more interesting and consumer-centric services that act on mobile a bit like the cash part of your wallet. Something like a pre-pay contactless wallet that is tap and go,

emulating the coffee/newspaper/sandwich part of my wallet. And when that gets low I can reload that directly from my bank account, just as if I were extracting cash from an ATM. It is these sorts of consumer-centric propositions that will be really interesting. However, in 2011 I dont think well be looking at a revolution, because there are simply not the point of sale terminals out there. In fact there are several such chicken and egg situations. First we will need a contactless card rollout to drive terminal deployments, for instance. Thats something that doesnt involve the mobile industry at all yet its something the mobile industry could well rely on to drive contactless user behaviour. Secondly, there is still the issue of what the business case for retailers is going to be, what is the demand for tap and go at point of sale from the retailers point of view? I think you also need to think about driving user behaviour on the handset. Think about day one after a user gets a new handset and it tells him it is enabled for, say, Visa/Oyster. Hes only going to use that for mobile payments if he has been using his mobile to manage his bank account beforehand. In that respect this will also be an evolutionary thing. Realistically, the user will first of all need to be used to mobile banking, and then we are in a position to ask him, or her, to consider putting a card in the back of his phone.

38 | Mobile Europe

Predictions 2011
Parallel to that is the mobile industry roadmap. Although I said that the Nokia handset shows I think generally theres a progress we still need more handsets, that people much broader recognition will want, with some sort of NFC capabilities. MicroSD has potential in that it does not require now of the need for people to have to change handsets, and that collaboration between banks opens up some interesting new models in itself. and operators; theres more Our principle in all this is that we cannot afford to have a religious position. We are a acceptance of the need for a heterogeneous provider, and not tied to one mobile collaborative model. We make sure that we can support all of approach. these by being NFC ready and MicroSD ready as evidenced by our deployment in the USA. Really, we see commercial deployment as a subset of mobile banking that we support with our banking relationships. Once we see contactless enabled phones, then we are in a position to enable that to happen.

KEITH DYER:
With that experience, how do you view how mobile operators can play in mobile banking and mobile payments? What role should they take?

LEE CAMERON:
Our relationships with mobile network operators span a number of different levels, but they tend to be concentrated in terms of commercial working relationships, whilst we have contractual relationships with financial services companies and banks. We continue to talk to network operators and involve them in all spaces where they wish to launch. I think generally theres a much broader recognition now of the need for collaboration between banks and operators; theres more acceptance of the need for a mobile collaborative approach. Operators are aware now that once they have connected money to mobile phones, there are a lot of different things they can do. The activity we are best known for is in mobile banking, but that then enables mobile shopping, mobile wallets, M-Pesa style virtual accounts, stock trading. These are all about providing secure, bank grade connectivity all characteristics of things were good at. The core principles that underpin mobile banking can enable other providers of mobile money services and that of course includes the mobile operator.

KEITH DYER:
You mentioned mobile banking and readers will be aware of Monitises presence in the mobile banking market. What is the current scope of your activities, in terms of the markets you address and solutions you can support?

LEE CAMERON:
We are the lead player globally in mobile banking and money, with active operations on all four continents. After a successful float on AIM (the UKs Alternative Investment Market) in June 2007 we have three years as an independent entity behind us and have achieved a current market capitalisation of 159 million. When we listed on AIM all our investment was targeted to create a banking grade and secure mobile banking platform, so that we can offer a mechanism for banks and mobile operators to enter the mobile banking and payments market. In terms of geographies we have seen more progress in the UK than anywhere else and have successful relationships with RBS, Lloyds TSB and HSBC, providing mobile banking services for their customers. In the USA we have a joint venture with FIS, the largest bank processing company, with approximately 300 banks on the platform, giving smaller banks access to m-banking and payments services. In July 2010 we signed a joint venture (JV) in India with Visa. We are in the early stages of setting up that business, and fully expect to have payments services in India in 2011. We also have a JV in AsiaPacific with our partner First Eastern. That JV is headquartered in Hong Kong and we are looking for deployments in neighbouring areas. There are also a number of global customer relationships. Our partnership with Visa is key, and is also our largest, and we also work with Travelex and Standard Chartered Bank. This global activity means we have a broad range of live payment services, and deployment really depends what the bank wants to launch as part of their service set.

KEITH DYER:
And Monitises own role in this market?

LEE CAMERON:
We are very clear on that. Mobile money is not just about cramming web services onto a small screen mobile has its own story, and is something that requires a mobile-centric approach. To address that, we have a platform and a network. Our Globe platform has built into it everything a bank or operator needs to bring mobile money to the mass market, from services, to business logic, to handset support. Our network provides a unique way for us to connect together the different players in mobile markets. People want to connect with the world around them through their mobiles, and to enable that we need to create an efficient infrastructure that builds on those connections. We have proved we can do that.

ABOUT LEE CAMERON: Lee Cameron is Chief Commercal Officer for Monitise.

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Sponsored Article

REUNDERSTANDING CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT

2011 will see an increasing number of operators benefit from sharing customer experience data across the full range of their business functions, says Arantechs James Doyle.
n 2011 there will be a re-appraisal of the way mobile operators, and others in the industry, think about managing the mobile customer experience. Operators will increasingly realise that the current method of determining the user experience, driven by interrogating static inventories held in data warehouses, is simply not fit for purpose any longer. Accordingly, a new way of sharing network, user, device and application information across operating units will put current usage data in the hands of those who need it most, when they need it. Predicting this as a hot topic for 2011 has been relatively easy, because it is a process that is already underway. This process is being driven by the need to increase the focus on the traditional priorities of mobile operators, that of increasing revenues and driving down costs, within a much changed environment. Smart operators have begun to move network-based data that used to remain firmly the property of the technical team into the business orientated side of their business. They are benefiting from the results, but challenges remain. The first challenge is simply a matter of definition, but it can have a business effect. When people talk about customer experience management (CEM) it can mean lots of different things to lots of different people. It can mean one thing in a service assurance environment, or within a network management platform, and quite another in a contact centre where the focus is on the actual businesses of talking to, and communicating with, customers. A customer care manager may call what he does CEM, but he is only concerned with the care infrastructure, rather than the whole customer experience. Once it is understood that Customer Experience Management requires a blend of all the available processes and systems that touch the

A change in outlook: what will the Customer Experience Management of 2011 look like?

Some operators are flying blind; they put a new range of phone out into the shops, then wait for people to call in if there is a problem. With an integrated CEM approach they can put all the new users of these phones into a group and monitor them on a 15 minutes basis, and be told whats going on as it happens.
40 | Mobile Europe

customer, then steps can be taken to understand the actual customer experience, on a per user basis in real time. To do that requires overcoming a second challenge; there are not many operators that are using network orientated data in their business today. Generally, the only data going across to the business units are items related to billing systems, such as mediated CDRs and toll tickets. The rest remains in the OSS repositories and is used for review in the performance management space. That data needs to transfer over that boundary. Yet operators have been challenged by transporting network data from the OSS space into something that can be used by the various stakeholders to a provide business view of whats going on. We at Arantech can provide that first phase heavy lift of data into to specific vertical apps to allow that business segment to analyse the data. To date, these apps have been more tied to technology and network ops-based users and the need now is to get that out. Making this data easily available to new business focussed users is our goal, enabling them to build new applications or maybe

Predictions 2011
locked in a technical report. What this means is that operators can pull in the network data from a range of sources, including passive data from probes, network elements such as SGSNs, and switches and then overlay that onto a provisioning or CRM-type dataset. This contains all the information about a user, such as corporate data fills, names, value segment, tariff, service package. This overlay of real time experience information and CRM data enables a bottom up approach, which in turn opens up different means of understanding customer data, rather than relying on that static inventory database. One example might be being able to track a user when he changes SIMs in a phone, or moves his SIM into a new phone. The business teams can have access to the actual live status of that user on the network, rather than an out of date inventory status. Another example is that operators see a lot of grey iPhones on the market. In that case that could bring network issues that an operator would be unaware of but it could also put the user on the wrong tariff plan, again without the operator knowing about it. So there is a greater need to understand whats going on. Some operators are flying blind; they put a new range of phone out into the shops, then wait for people to call in if there is a problem. With an integrated CEM approach they can put all the new users of these phones into a group and monitor them on a 15 minutes basis, and be told whats going on as it happens. What we will see is that people in charging, in customer care, in marketing, in the handsets teams, will come to see these data sets as a useful way of moving the business forward instead of seeing KPIs as a list of numbers. The need to drive data across the boundary between the network and OSS teams, and the business support units, will drive a new realisation through 2011 that Customer Experience Management needs to be viewed in a new way within an operator.

an executive dashboard or report. We are already working with EDW partners to make that happen, to move beyond the existing data mining of static inventory data and CDR's to inform business decision. Allowing that data transfer also means overcoming any defensiveness between the two organisations within an operator. The technology teams have not been used to exporting any element of the data they hold other than the bill and CDR etc, so it requires CEO level mediation between the functions. I think in 2011 we will begin to see C-level executives get really interested in customer data and useage experience, and start to put teams together from different functions to work collaboratively. The customers we are working with have told us that the want to operate in a way that turns this information into a group level set of data and they are starting to do it. These are the executives that realise their company has data that can deliver access to real time information about what a customer is doing, and that they need to be exploiting that extra insight in a business-focussed manner. Once the technical side has been addressed, that information can be used for micro campaigns, highly targeted offers, or to build churn propensity models at a very granular level. There tends to be a very positive reaction from these teams when they see the data sets that are available, allowing them on a 15 minute basis to see calls, handsets usage, and the experience customers are getting. This changed approach to CEM will take data sets from the OSS space, with existing Service Quality Management KPIs and KQIs, and make sense of that for the business teams. If an SMSC is down for two hours, the marketing team needs to know which customers are affected by it, what the impact of that is on their experience, and what the customer action is likely to be as a result. That sort of customercentricity is what makes that data valuable, rather than the sheer fact that data exits somewhere,

Operators hold data that can give them real time customer information, and could exploit that in a business-focussed manner.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: James Doyle is VP Product Management & Marketing, Arantech.

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Sponsored Article

2011: THE YEAR FOR CROSS-BORDER COLLABORATION

And we are not talking about the Eurozone! Or are we?
ts common sense to say that in difficult times intelligent people tend to join forces, to collaborate and to cooperate more, because they know they will be able to better prepare and overcome those difficult times.

but please people, collaborate. No need to have so many LTE networks in a country. Be rational. Also consider very well if it really makes sense to outsource your money making and innovation delivery machine: your network.

IS COMMON SENSE UNCOMMON, THESE DAYS?

Telecom operators around the globe have been losing ground for some years now. Brands like Google, Apple and Facebook are part of the daily dreams and nightmares of many Telecom executives. 2011 is the year these executives can really make a difference! Why? How? With the help of IT/IS companies and software developers, Communication Service Providers (CSPs) can bring a lot of value to the internet both to individuals and to SMEs. CSPs have the opportunity to create their clouds (we would prefer to call them eco-systems) and get back part of the margin that CSPs have been losing to those brands mentioned above. The challenge: please dont do it only in a countrywide way. Organisations like the GSM Association, the TMForum and the ITU can help! Telecom groups need to work closer together with other telecom groups and with independent CSPs. For 2010 Gartner predicted that something similar to the airlines alliances would start happening in telecoms. At WeDo Technologies we dont expect that same level of co-operation and co-branding but we do see the opportunity for a shift in the value chain, in favour of telecoms and against over-the-top providers if telecom operators learn how to co-operate across borders in areas like cloud services (the old ASPs back to life after 10 years, now with a model that will work), fraud and security protection of telecommunications consumers, and as consumer experience assurance gatekeepers. One thing is certain, if telcos continue to play the same game as until now, telcos will continue to lose. CSPs are facing experts on cross-border consumer marketing.

PREDICTION #3: INNOVATION COMING FROM THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

In 2011 large European and American CSPs will continue to observe how innovation is coming from the so called developing regions of the world. In these regions difficulties were always part of the equation and so this financial crisis was nothing more than a thing. Developed countries are eating the pill they themselves researched and developed into a fantastic banking system that is able to fool even the banking system itself. Funny and ironic, as strange as it may sound. The time for smaller and sometimes even independent CSPs to show off has arrived. Will we see marketers from Brazil or Indonesia or Egypt leading Marketing at large CSPs in Europe or US? And in finance, IT, engineering?

PREDICTION #4: BOARD ROOM TENSION WHILE FACING THE EXECUTION CHALLENGE
The English language sometimes is dangerous. We are not thinking of axing anybody. But what is that board room tension all about? The tension comes from the big gap between strategy definition and the execution of that strategy. Board members are feeling that they are not able to control how their decisions have been put in place, that there is a gap between what they decided and what really was put in place. Its an issue that crosses many boundaries within the operation. Its not only finance, its also IT and engineering, and it should involve much more marketing (because they must start thinking of the actual ROI of the offers they want to launch) and customer service (because customers are not at the end of the organisation anymore

PREDICTION #2: LTE IS COMING

The same certainty could be applied to a very commonly identified trend: LTE/4G is coming. It is coming and will be coming for several years

We see customer services and marketing teams gazing at the opportunity to use this kind of technology and approach to improve customer experience assurance

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Predictions 2011
gazing at the opportunity to use this kind of technology and approach to improve the customer experience assurance before, during and after the launch of new products. We also see a big opportunity for the cloud and for an evolution of the existing managed services in Revenue and Business Assurance but, like mentioned above, we will also be partnering with the CSPs and other IT/IS providers, in their clouds. No man is an Island and even less so in a cloud destined to be used by very down to earth risk-averse people such as Revenue Assurance, Fraud Management, Security, Risk Management people are.

We do see the opportunity for a shift in the value chain if operators learn how to co-operate across borders in areas like cloud services, fraud and security protection of telecommunications consumers, and as consumer experience assurance gatekeepers
they must start leading and influencing much more than they did in the past). The tension only gets stronger because: 1. With the IP world coming into the mobile world, IT and engineering are re-merging and re-structuring and silent battles are happening between CTOs and CIOs; 2. Because risk management best practices demand more and better governance and process integration creating a lot of stress between shareholders, CEOs and CFOs; 3. Because there is a revenue crunch out there, increasing competition within the telecom sector and also coming from the three brands already mentioned above (and others are coming). We are seeing huge data volume increase without any additional relevant revenue. What do people do when they feel tension? They go to the gym, they return to university, they get back to the basics. The basics in telecom like in any business are the customers, the consumers. Consumers are changing fast and being empowered but the industry sometimes feels like it is in denial. CMOs seem a bit lost due to the pace of change coming from social networks and other consumer behaviour megatrends. CMOs must acknowledge that they need to incorporate in their strategy the customer service teams experience and operations thus transforming into Chief Customer Officers.

PREDICTION #6: NETWORK NEUTRALITY YES! BUT

It is a very difficult topic and trend to discuss because it deals with the vision we have for the future of our world. It is critical that developing countries and, specifically, less educated people wherever they are, continue to leverage all the democracy that the internet brings through its neutrality. We have seen abuse on both extremes: freedom of speech and of service has been attacked, on one hand, and, on the other hand, over the top service providers are launching products and services that put additional unbalanced strain on the resources available without sharing any part of the returns or any part of the additional expenses. We need to strike a balance somewhere but again it should be a cross-border and cross-continents collaboration.

POST SCRIPTUM: ABOUT THE EUROZONE

1939-45 showed us why we need a European Germany and not a German Europe. The Euro was born with that exact same mindset. There is no turning back to the Euro that is good for any Eurozone country, especially for an export based Germany. Europe and the Eurozone need strong and demanding collaboration from all of us and not strong demands from any individual member.

PREDICTION #5: CSPS WILL TAKE REVENUE ASSURANCE TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL
And now focusing the article in our comfort zone: revenue and business assurance. We have been helping the C-Level, mostly on the CFO and CIO side, to control the gap between strategy and execution focusing on the CSPs revenue streams. We are now taking that challenge to a much broader perspective. We have started by demonstrating that Revenue Assurance (RA) and Fraud Management really must collaborate more. That has already taken off and we have evidence everywhere that although they are separate functions, both RA and Fraud teams should leverage their systems, processes and people more. We are now observing similar behaviour in the risk management and security areas, and in a less evident way we see customer services and marketing teams

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Sergio Silvestre is Vice President for Marketing and Alliances, WeDo Technologies ABOUT WEDO TECHNOLOGIES: WeDo Technologies is the number one preferred supplier of Revenue Assurance software for the global telecoms industry with customers in more than 70 countries. With an international presence in Portugal, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, France, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Poland, Singapore, Spain, UK and USA, WeDo Technologies is also a member of the GSM Association and the TM Forum. Assuring your Business for the Future is the companys motto.

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Sponsored Article

LTEWHERE ARE WE NOW?

By Jorma Axelsson, Senior Product Line Manager, EXFO NetHawk
s the demand for higher bit rates continues to increase, wireless service providers are deploying mobile broadband networks. To ensure that customers have the same advanced quality of experience (QoE) with wireless services as they do with fixed-wireline services, service providers are turning to long-term evolution (LTE) to bring their networks beyond 3G. LTE is growing fastnine commercial LTE deployments were performed in 2010 and 44 launches are planned for 2011. To date, there are 113 LTE network commitments in 46 countries with almost 50 LTE trials currently in operation (source: Northstream). Whats more, the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI) has announced that it is close to concluding nearly all LTE trial milestones. This indicates to the industry that equipment vendors will soon make interoperability-tested access networks, as well as terminal equipment, available. No doubt, the main wireless themes in 2011 will be LTE deployments and increased mobile broadband availability. As LTE networks are being deployed, EXFO sees that monitoring, as well as interoperability and performance testing, will affect the ability for network operators to remain competitive and increase profitability. In order to ensure performance, service delivery and quality of experience (QoE), complete visibility and access to key interfaces are essential. As data traffic increases, operators need to be able to choose the type and quantity of data that they collect, so that they can scale their test systems and data collection. According to the industry, it has been estimated that by 2015 there will be 3.5 billion mobile broadband users, which will increase the total data traffic volume by more than 30 times, in comparison to 2010 (source: Ericsson). The key technical challenges that network operators face in deployment are as follows: T An all-IP network is newnew interfaces and protocols T e2e IP performance measurementsperformance and latencies T Importance of QoE/QoS measurements per subscriber and application T New network elements with new functionalities RLC/RRC messages not available after eNB T Interoperability testingmultiple technologies (2G/3G/LTE), handovers and applications

NETWORK LIFECYCLE R&D phase conformance/load testing Rollout phase installation/troubleshooting

LTE CHALLENGES THAT EXFOS SOLUTIONS SOLVE

T Test the functionality T Interoperability MME/eNB, UEs T Test the load behavior before the real load T Achieving first-time-right results T IP transmission tests T Connectivity to eNB T Delays/jitters in installation phases T Performance T End-user experience T SLA screening T Service usage T Network element/UE problems T Fraud detection, billing verifications T QoE, customer-experience monitoring T Find problems T Quick identification of problem causes T Access to the details required T Go from mass data to the root cause T Simplify the process through easy-to-use instruments
future revenues and churn rate. When moving from the phases of R&D and system testing to the rollout and construction phase, vendors and network operators will face new challenges with legacy network interoperability. Services will become more complex due to network convergence and consolidation. One example of a challenge that will be faced is how network operators will proceed with handling the handovers across different networks, while providing services outside the actual evolved packet core (EPC). Interoperability testing between the technologies and the 2G/3G networks is still needed to verify that the quality of data-driven applications meets the end users expectations of seamless connectivity. In LTE, end users demand more quality at the same time, while mobile applications (such as streaming videos, file downloads, web browsing, etc.) consume bandwidth. This raises a critical question: how can network operators ensure that they deliver quality services that are better than the competitors are offering? The only way is to constantly monitor the network and have the key performance indicators (KPIs) and data available on time for decision-making. Ensuring QoS and end-to-end IP session performance in an all-IP environment is extremely important in LTE networks. The testing focus will shift from the transmission and signaling plane to the user plane and applications, requiring a deep view and ability to follow elements and services. EXFOs analysers and serviceassurance solutions can help operators to follow how

Assurance phase 24/7 monitoring

Maintenance phase in-service troubleshooting

The LTE network lifecycle, challenges and solutions

WHY IS NETWORK AND APPLICATION PERFORMANCE IMPORTANT?

The performance of a mobile providers services directly influences the subscribers level of satisfaction, which in return will have a significant impact on the operators

Ensuring QoS and end-to-end IP session performance in an all-IP environment is extremely important in LTE networks

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the applications are performing and know the quality that each individual subscriber experiences. interfaces, which EXFOs solutions are capable of. EXFOs portable test gear for new Ethernet links is right there as a vital part of the turn-up and troubleshooting process to rapidly validate Ethernet performance and service-level agreements (SLAs) with the highest level of accuracy, using standard test methodologies such as EtherSAM. Network operators need to deal with a number of challenges that occur when launching commercial services. LTE increases the amount of data in the network, and operators must optimise the networks and seek out new business models. Real-time LTE access network monitoring has a strong role in operational LTE networks. The assurance phase requires network-wide visibility combined with the ability to perform detailed troubleshooting. A monitoring system is not only used for reporting; it should serve multiple stakeholders such as network operators and multi-user groups. EXFOs BrixMobile is a fully scalable system to monitor both signaling and the user plane. Operators can start looking at the networks KPIs, such as the attach procedures, paging delays, context activations, etc., and then drill down to a detailed decoding of the control plane and applications by using analyserswhen more complete troubleshooting is needed. EXFOs solution for LTE monitoring includes visibility of the control-plane transactions, as well as of the daily health of the network, which provides valuable information that operations and technical teams require to validate services. Service- and subscriber-based key quality indicators (KQI), combined with the ability to see the services and customer QoS with maximum accuracy, will help solve the wireless operators challenge by providing them with comprehensive critical data, such as the potential errors and issues. For network operators to see the application distribution for mobile web browsing, streaming, Skype usage, etc., it is important to be able to optimize the network according to the users needs. For more information about EXFO's LTE solutions, visit www.EXFO.com or contact EXFO Europe Ltd., Sales: +44.2380.246.810;isales@EXFO.com

SOLUTIONS COVERING THE FULL LTE LIFECYCLE

EXFO has solutions for every phase of the LTE network lifecycle. EXFOs NetHawk analysers and simulators are portable test tools that combine with Brix monitoring solutions to solve the challenges that wireless operators face. At the R&D and system-testing phaseswhere vendors and operators need to verify the functionality, run the load test and start the interoperability teststhe NetHawk analysers and simulators are a proven solution. When the worlds largest network equipment manufacturers (NEMs) introduce their latest generation of high-capacity switches, routers, security gateways, session border controllers and radio access nodes, EXFOs simulators and load generators have already been in action to fully exercise them with more capacity than they can handle. This is the first step for the vendors to enable future performance of LTE applications. Now that wireless service providers are rolling out HSPA/HSPA+ and LTE upgrades, EXFOs leading-edge NetHawk M5 protocol analyser provides unique scalability from portable sets to multi-user systems with high-performance packet capture and a complete multiple-technology (2G/3G/LTE) analysis and call tracing. LTE data rates require a high-speed probe technology with smart filtering that can handle hundreds of thousands of transactions per second. Transition from the control-plane-centric measurements to user plane and service monitoring requires deep packet inspection (DPI) technology integrated to probes. EXFO responds to those testing challenges with NetHawk iPro probes, which can provide the initial data for troubleshooting and problem isolation. With M5 and iPro, operators are able to follow up on individual calls and measure the QoS parameters for specific applications like file downloading or video streaming from any LTE interface such as S1, S6a and S10. Analysing both the control and user plane in LTE requires rich test applications that are able to access the data, show the details and correlate it across the
Analysing both the control and user plane in LTE requires rich test applications that are able to access the data, show the details and correlate it across the interfaces.

EXFO has solutions for every phase of the LTE network lifecycle

Jorma Axelsson

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Sponsored Article

CHARGING AND BILLING PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

Service providers have spent much of 2010 trying to handle the increase in mobile data from both a revenue crunch and a scalability perspective. In 2011, this growth will continue while current systems reach their operational limits and service providers ditch all you can eat pricing models once and for all. So what will change in the next twelve months that will offer service providers new opportunities in the way they monetise their networks?
he charging and billing sector is one of the most dynamic in the industry right now, and that adds a challenge when we look to predict its direction over the course of the next twelve months. However, one prediction that we wont hesitate to make is that the unlimited mobile data tariff is dead in the water. Thats because, while data traffic volumes have exploded, theres been little corresponding boost in revenue. While there is some industry argument about how rapidly mobile data traffic is growing, its clearly heading upwards at an alarming rate that has recently seen both Vodafone and AT&T publically express their intention to move away from the unprofitable flat rate tariff and explore new business models. Thats understandable when you consider that some operators are experiencing a doubling of traffic every eight months, while underlying revenue grows less than 5%. This effectively means that service providers must process more and more usage for every Euro or dollar of revenue earned, leaving them to try and balance a sliding profitability equation. So, the first step in stopping this erosion is to understand the operational cost of processing this growth in mobile data traffic. Once service providers get their arms around the costs, they can begin to tweak their business models by knowing in advance which services will be the most profitable, which existing services need to be repriced and re-packaged, and where the best opportunities lie for future growth. Then, theres the scalability issue to deal with. As pricing models become more granular, with subscribers having choices across a multitude of personalised offers, the charging and billing systems that support the business must provide a new level of flexibility and time to market to enable operators to shift their business models. Multiply this by the growing increase in mobile data traffic and billable events, and a tremendous strain is placed on current systems, which over time cannot keep step with the demands made of them. So how will charging and billing evolve during 2011 to support better

monetisation of mobile data and efficiently manage continued double digit growth in traffic?

FROM MONTHLY SUBS TO ON-DEMAND

The first trend that is emerging is a change in the way that subscribers interact with their service provider and the way that they purchase and consume services. Instead of subscribing on a monthly basis, for example, packages and promotions will be offered and accessed on an on demand basis. For the service provider, this means handling an increased volume of smaller transactions in real-time, rather than settling up at the end of the month using their existing batch systems. This not only gives them more opportunity to drive revenue with each subscriber, but also reduces revenue leakage and the dependence on cycle processing. It opens a one on one financial conversation with each subscriber mitigating bill shock and conforming to European and potential US regulations on how subscribers are charged. For the subscriber, it opens up more choice in the way they select and pay for their services, and also opens the door to offering them more control over their spend through self-care portals; families can share balances and limits can be set by parents on what their children can and cant spend; enterprises can finally gain a detailed understanding of their spend, and apply specific policies to users and user groups that control which services they access. If we look at the bigger picture, then we can also see that billing the act of communicating financial information to subscribers and charging the act of calculating a price for an event and then authorising a charge to a subscriber balance will continue to diverge. While billing will become more of a statement generation process, charging will evolve to become the key competitive weapon for service providers.

OFFERING TRANSPARENCY, DRIVING ADOPTION

To drive adoption of this shift in how services are bought and sold, service providers are aiming to

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offer a much higher level of billing transparency and intuitive spend controls, and create a more personalised value equation in terms of what level of service subscribers are willing to pay for. As a consumer, I might be willing to pay a little more for an HD version of a movie, or as an enterprise customer, I may be interested in premium quality VoIP service for important business calls. This shift in pricing strategies positions the operators to better segment and target pricing models to realise the revenue potential of different levels of data users. To achieve this, service providers will continue to move towards greater adoption of real time charging versus batch rating for postpaid data services. Shifting from batch to real-time for postpaid services has inherent advantages, such as helping to conserve network resources and shape subscriber behavior to best leverage network assets. A good example of this is where service providers can offer cheaper bandwidth during off-peaks hours when the network is not congested. This fills the network with traffic that wouldnt otherwise be there, while also communicating the message to subscribers that there are bargains to be had. A further prediction here is that charging and policy management will begin to converge to enable service providers to make more valuable traffic management decisions. At the moment, if the network policy management system decides to throttle back or cut off a subscriber that has crossed a usage quota, that decision is made without reference to the purchasing behaviour, creditworthiness, or total spend of the subscriber. If policy can query charging about the financial status of a subscriber, more profitable decisions can be made. At the very least, the service provider can keep the goodwill of premium subscribers by having a realtime financial dialogue with them; at the most, there are a host of cross- and up-sell opportunities for service providers to be made when this type of network event or inflection point occurs. quickly becoming outmoded as operators are looking for both extreme scalability and configurability. This suggests that during 2011, service providers will be looking to swap out or upgrade their batch or legacy charging systems with software based real-time systems that are much more scalable and network grade than their predecessors. We predict that operators will look to upgrade real-time charging for postpaid data services as a first step towards convergent charging. Consequently, billing will act more as a back office support system while rating, by contrast, will move in the opposite direction to be closer to the network. Service providers will be looking for solutions which are network-grade but which are also able to leverage cost-effective, commoditised hardware and software platforms. In this way, they can quickly scale operations to handle the growth in data transactions while building greater configurability that allows them to quickly experiment and roll out new pricing and offers.

CONTEXT BASED BILLING AND OTT

The other key factor that will drive the adoption of convergent real-time charging is that it better equips service providers to compete against overthe-top (OTT) content providers and reverse their current dumb pipe perception to one of profitability and leader of the value chain. Without real-time charging, service providers have no way to charge subscribers for anything more than network usage. But with real-time charging in place, context-based billing becomes a reality and they can apply more pricing granularity and thereby better monetise OTT services, while also gaining more negotiating power with the content providers. While billing remains a core back office operation, real-time charging is becoming the competitive weapon for business growth for service providers. It is where their pricing sits and where they can respond immediately to market demands, especially on-the-spot discounts or bundles based on subscriber purchasing behavior. 2011 will be the year when they gain new efficiencies from charging so that they can face the increase of mobile data transactions with confidence, while driving to a new frontier of subscriber service options and value. ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Dave Labuda is CEO and Founder of MATRIXX Software.

A NEW LEVEL OF SCALABILITY AND EFFICIENCY

Of course, these decisions must be made in realtime or the moment and the money - is lost. Currently, many service providers are using IN-based systems for charging that are reliable from a network perspective, but nowhere near flexible enough to offer the variety of pricing plans that will underpin more personalised service offers. Or, they have an enterprise software solution that offers more pricing flexibility, but is either batch-based or unable to handle the volume of data traffic in realtime. Either way, charging and rating systems are

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Sponsored Article

TURN TO ROAMING FOR GROWTH IN 2011

Pressed by regulation and recession, Europes operators can respond by maximising their inbound roaming revenues in 2011, says CommProves Sunil Laroiya.
evenues worldwide are under pressure from market saturation, static ARPU growth and economising on cost on the part of customers in recession hit areas of Europe. Regulation of roaming costs within the European Union has structured reductions to be implemented year on year, as well as imposing maximum limits on wholesale prices. Data cut-off default limits of 50 are now in place, with further reviews of data pricing a possibility. Within these market conditions, operators require CAPEX to fund new LTE rollouts. For these reasons, whilst modest subscriber growth in the European mobile communications market is forecast, the respective revenues are showing very low growth. A major benefit for European operators is that the networks they run will continue to be the leading roaming revenue generators worldwide and therefore have the greatest potential around maximising roaming revenues. Over the next few years in Europe we will continue to see smart phone growth, leading to increased roaming data usage, and a growth of subscribers from both the business and tourist markets roaming from the robust emerging economies. This gives operators a real opportunity to grow revenue by tapping into inbound roaming revenue on data and voice from those two segments. Maximising roaming revenues requires a new view on network and service management. It needs a continuous assessment of appropriate roaming agreements with other operators, combined with a different approach to fault management and network optimisation, with a roamer focused operational strategy. Roamers are a special subscriber group, typically they congregate in different areas, but in varying quantities, they have a choice and the ability to reselect if the Quality of Service is insufficient. Additionally, many of the emerging home countries show a greater use of

roaming steering to enforce preferred network selection.

ACHIEVING GREATER VISIBILITY

To address this opportunity with maximum business impact, operators need to focus on maximising roaming revenues and minimising roaming costs. Revenue improvements can be achieved by defining better tariffs which are centred around business users or particular device types, and by growing preferred partner arrangements with identified emerging country operators. In particular, the way that data is packaged and marketed will need to be reviewed, to encourage greater usage without the fear of dramatic cost to the user. With appropriate analysis and partnerships, this information can in turn be used to supply additional services to the roaming community, such as business support, tourist information, or language translation. In addition, operators need to achieve greater visibility of roamer usage and experience on the network. This means focusing network operations resources on finding places in the network that are a source of leaking revenue; points in the network where roamers are not getting on, leaving, being lost, or suffering a sub-optimal experience. This information can

Table: European market connection and revenue forecast (Ovum)

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Predictions 2011
the ROI of network investments, or identify issues that occur before the billing stage such as failed registrations, loss of roamers, call setup failures, inability to download a web page, etc. Commprove has considered how to incorporate these factors into the design of its products and has now introduced a completely new concept to the market called BCN (Business/Customer/Network). With the BCN concept CommProve provides operators with two key tools. First, a translator function that can convert physical parameters to financial parameters; for instance, the solution can tell operators how much roaming revenue they are at risk of losing due to specific physical issues in their network. Second, a feedback loop between financial and physical parameters that enables operators to set physical parameters for maximum profit. By monitoring end to end between the business and subscribers the solution pinpoints financial limitations anywhere in the network. These limitations can then be prioritised for greatest profit gain. Typically, within four weeks operators are able to identify critical roamer loss points, reprioritise site optimisation based on roamer performance and put in place plans to address roamer registration failures, all leading to significant increases in roamer revenues and profits. Providing a solid foundation on which to measure your network, the CommProve applications are geared to analyse specific factors that contribute to the health of both the network and the business, and the ongoing happiness of your subscribers.

With the BCN concept CommProve provides operators with two key tools. First, a translator function that can convert physical parameters to financial parameters. Second, a feedback loop between financial and physical parameters that enables operators to set physical parameters for maximum profit.
then be used to structure optimisation and fault prioritisation based on profit possibilities as well as severity. At the same time, this improves the experience for all customers, but also ensures that the changes made are demonstrated to be worthwhile to the business. As competition for preferred partner status increases, this mechanism will give the ability to demonstrate an enhanced level of roamer support and quality of experience. Roaming cost improvements can be achieved by understanding interconnect usage and call volumes, as well as outbound roaming profiles, down to partner network level. Similarly to the inbound scenario, there is a need to have visibility of the home core network, and quickly identify any issues that impact outbound roamers, to prevent revenue loss and degradation to brand perception. Finally, by measuring and managing interconnect service levels, there is an understanding that an operator is dealing with the right partner networks. To address the revenue and cost optimisation opportunities a considered approach to network monitoring needs to be adopted. Full network wide monitoring, with a specific view on roamer Quality of Service and revenue impact of network or service issues, allows the operator to address high profit impacting problems first, then continues by leading to a profit prioritised workflow. Further, this approach can be used to monitor the impact of new services and validate their ROI, or assess the effect of changes in regulation or pricing. Of course, at the same time this approach can be used for non-roaming network improvements, or re-applied to alternative segments of the operator subscriber base. Traditionally, operators try to address roaming specifically with CDR based or performance management based systems. These typically provide a limited view of the user experience, limited ability to identify revenue impact network wide and do not allow detailed troubleshooting and root cause analysis. It is also difficult to locate network problems down to a geographic area. With these systems it is also impossible to classify

Figure: CommProve Complete offers the industry's only combined Business Performance Optimization and trouble-shooting platform aimed at improving operator's profit and loss statement and cash flow.

THE AUTHOR: Sunil Laroiya is Product Manager, Commprove.

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Diary & Notes

December 2010/January 2011
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT IN TELECOMS
24-27 January 2011, London Are you struggling to differentiate your CEM strategy? Attend Customer Experience Management in Telecoms to network with CEM pioneers and share tactical approaches to CEM. At a time when every customer is key to maintaining your market share, learn how to develop, justify and leverage a differentiated customer experience management strategy to maximise your revenue. Exclusive insights from 16 Operator Case Studies led by: www.customerexperienceevent.com However, the transition from legacy to Next Generation networks, the convergence of networks and the increasing regulation of mobile networks, represent a number of new challenges for regulators and operators regulators will have to rethink existing interconnection regimes and operators will have to develop strategies that will effectively assure interconnection revenue in a rapidly evolving technological and uncertain regulatory environment. /www.iir-telecoms.com/event/interconnection

WELCOME TO ANONYMITY, STEVE

INTERCONNECTION WORLD FORUM

24 - 27 January, London Interconnection remains a vital source of revenue for operators.

MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS

14-17 February, Barcelona Not much more to say, its there? Elop, Ballmer and Schmidt. Martin Sorrell, Dick Costolo and, er, Carol Bartz. Plus more operator CEOs than you can shake a mobile at. www.mobileworldcongress.com

TELECOMS CEM, CRM & RETENTION

14 - 17 March, Vienna Customer retention remains a key priority for any operator looking to maximise revenue, especially in the current economic climate. With operators implementing cost cutting measures and customers curbing their service usage, operators are facing a difficult balancing act in remaining competitive yet retaining customers. http://www.iir-telecoms.com/event/CEM-CRM-Retention

Around the mobile world in 300 words

For a while, nobody at Nokia could sneeze without a host of articles excoriating this typical old world, outmoded way of nasal decongestion. Yet Sony Ericsson loses its global chief of marketing and...nobody cares. Poor old Lennard Hoornik must have wished at least a few more finger in the airticles had been churned out on What this means for Google, and Apple, and perhaps Nokia. Poor SEO I guess. Steve Walker, formerly head of portfolio planning, has stepped up as acting head of marketing until the company recruits a direct replacement for Hoornik. Welcome to anonymity, Steve. Virgins confirmation that it is considering a nationwide WiFi network has mainly been reported from its impact on the consumer market. But it has implications for the mobile industry too, as operators consider ways to increase network capacity and coverage most cost-effectively. For a while now BelAir Networks has been providing its WiFi infrastructure to provide mobile data offload services for mobile operators in the USA. Its WiFi site in Times Square, New York, offloads millions of sessions a day from the mobile network. Although Belair has mainly been working with US cable operators, Belair's CTO Stephen Rayment told Mobile Europe that the company has also been talking to cable operators in Europe about using the cable infrastructure for mobile

backhaul and offload, but also to provide mobile operators with sites, power and backhaul for small cells. That said, WiFi offload was named a few times as over-hypedin our Ones To Watch reader survey (this issue from page 22). So Virgin might continue on its own merry way without any operator involvement at all. What do we know? Those heading out to Barcelona know that it may be the last time that the event is held there, if one of the other candidate cities wins the not-at-all-like-FIFA bidding war. But did you know the event might also undergo a change of date. Seems its all up for grabs for the winning city. Unlikely, though, surely? Although if someone could move it from Valentines Day and the UK half term break, thousands of relationships could benefit, or suffer. You But not if you work in mobile... choose.

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