NEW RENEWablEs PoWER PRoductioN

cuRRENt shaRE aNd futuRE dEvEloPmENt iN EuRoPE

New ReNewables PoweR PRoductioN

New Renewables 2010 (excluding hydro >10 MW)*
netherlanDS - Share RES - 2010

norway - Share RES - 2010 FinlanD - Share RES - 2010

CypruS - Share RES - 2010

Country Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland UK

Installed capacity (MW) 2'987 1'930 595 12 2'150 4'667 2'768 9'428 46'075 1'427 714 1'402 12'427 124 5 3'432 4'135 2'206 4'552 678 284 238 26'294 4'352 1'375 8'515

Production (GWh) 10'231 5'923 1'527 37 4'666 13'158 1'4419 28'837 95'096 3'500 2'472 4'190 34'032 252 8 12'302 16'238 7'693 11'830 2'832 1'119 1'090 61'540 15'887 4'439 32'950
luxemB. - Share RES - 2010
Consumption Split RES Consumption Split RES Consumption Split RES Consumption Split RES

Consumption

Split RES

SweDen - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Consumption

Split RES

uk - Share RES - 2010

Denmark - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

irelanD - Share RES - 2010

malta - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

polanD - Share RES - 2010 BelGium - Share RES - 2010

Germany - Share RES - 2010 CzeCh rep. - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Consumption

Split RES

Slovakia - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Consumption

Split RES

auStria - Share RES - 2010 Switzerl. - Share RES - 2010

Consumption Split RES

FranCe - Share RES - 2010 hunGary - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

romania - Share RES - 2010

( * the definition of new renewables is supported by the European Commission)

Consumption

Split RES

Country - Share RES - 2010 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Consumption Split RES

Conventional Old RES Prod. New RES Prod. Other renewables Solar Geothermal Biomass-waste fired Wind off-shore Wind on-shore Hydro

Consumption

Split RES

portuGal - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Slovenia - Share RES - 2010

Consumption Split RES Consumption Split RES

Spain - Share RES - 2010

BulGaria - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Consumption

Split RES

Country colours Certificate system Feed-in tariffs/others

Consumption Split RES

italy - Share RES - 2010 GreeCe - Share RES - 2010

Consumption

Split RES

Consumption

Split RES Consumption Split RES

Sources: Green-X, Platts, EWEA, Nordel Copyright, EGL AG 2010

Renewables Scenario 2030 in GWh, different scales (excluding hydro >10 mW)
italy - REs scenario - 2030
120'000 100'000 80'000 60'000 40'000 20'000 0 split REs 2010 2030

Spain - REs scenario - 2030

250'000 200'000 150'000 100'000 50'000 0 split REs 2010 2030

germany - REs scenario - 2030

250'000 200'000 150'000 100'000 50'000 0 split REs 2010 2030

FranCe - REs scenario - 2030

180'000 160'000 140'000 120'000 100'000 80'000 60'000 40'000 20'000 0 split REs 2010 2030

polanD - REs scenario - 2030

35'000 30'000 25'000 20'000 15'000 10'000 5'000 0 split REs 2010 2030

uK - REs scenario - 2030

180'000 160'000 140'000 120'000 100'000 80'000 60'000 40'000 20'000 0 split REs 2010 2030
(Colour legend see map.)

for renewable projections EGl applies the well established modeling and analysis tool Green-X. this software tool conducts in-depth analyses of future REs deployment and accompanying transfer costs, due to REs support on sectoral, national, and technological levels, in a real-world energy policy context. the future belongs to energy from renewable sources. in some countries the still fairly new renewable energy industry has developed very well, boosted by promotion schemes introduced by governments. Projections are that this development will continue and the share of electricity generation from renewable sources will significantly increase further in the years to come. assuming business-as-usual demand growth, our calculations show a share of 29 per cent of the Eu27 electricity demand coming from renewables in 2020. the analysis of six key countries (france, Germany, italy, Poland, spain, united Kingdom) shows how electricity generation from different renewable technologies could increase from 2010-2030. to set the focus purely on new renewables, this analysis does not take into account hydro power stations with a maximum capacity of more than 10 mW. of course, such a long-term outlook is subject to various uncertainties, however, this scenario can provide an

idea of how electricity generation from renewable sources in these countries is likely to develop over the next 20 years. - the country with the biggest increase in generation from renewable sources in the next 20 years is france, with an expected jump from 29000 GWh in 2010 to 170000 GWh in 2030, followed by the uK, which will increase its generation five times from 33000 GWh to 165000 GWh. Germany, the country with the largest generation from renewables in 2010, will be in relative terms - at the bottom of these six countries but will still more than double its generation from renewables. - the technology with the most significant rise in the selected countries is power generation from off-shore wind parks. Whilst there is almost no power generation coming from this technology in italy, spain, france and Poland in 2010, our calculations show a major boost for it until 2030. by 2030, in Germany and the uK, off-shore wind power generation will even have the highest share of total power generated from renewables, with 35 per cent in Germany and 43 per cent in the uK. - having a look at total power generation from wind (on- and off-shore), the uK will be the leading country with a share of 79 per cent

of total generation from renewables followed by Germany (62%), france (55%), Poland (53%) and spain (35%). in italy wind power will have a share of 29 per cent. - Power generation from solar will experience a substantial development in the more southern countries such as france, italy and spain. france will be leading this development with a growth of 55 per cent in solar power generation, coming from a fairly low basis of around 700 GWh in 2010. spain will follow with a growth of 21 per cent and italy will see a plus of 13 per cent in this technology. by 2030, solar will be the leading renewables technology in spain with a share of 51 per cent of total electricity generation from renewable sources. - With biomass having an expected share of 42 per cent in 2030, Poland will be the exception. in the other countries, the share will vary between 10 per cent (spain) and 25 per cent (italy). - for hydro power plants with a technical capacity of up to 10 mW, Poland will see a nearly 2.5 times higher generation in 2030. spain and france will also see a substantial growth of around 30 per cent.

EGl aG aNalYsis & stRatEGY | lerzenstrasse 10 | ch-8953 dietikon Phone +41 44 749 41 41 | analysis.ch@egl.eu | www.egl.eu