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We asked Global Business Network, a San Francisco consultancy whose clients range from
influence
influence
Coca-Cola to the U.S. government, to give us four scenarios for the future of China. In scenario plan-
ning—GBN’s specialty—you take two variables, intersect them, and treat each of the four result-
ing quadrants as a possible future (see diagram at right). So Beijing may continue to be a rising eco-
nomic power and resolve disputes peacefully (scenario 1), but it’s just as likely to grow slowly and resolve conflicts
stop playing by international rules (scenario 3). We’ve listed them in order from least disruptive militarily
to most disruptive, but your business needs to be equally prepared for all outcomes.
1 EMPEROR OF BUSINESS
China grows peacefully and plays by the rules.
As the adage goes, “Brazil has a bright future, and always will.” In this
scenario, China heads in the same direction—driven by boundless poten-
tial but never quite achieving First World status. The country flounders in
the face of environmental crisis, political unrest, poverty, and government
corruption. (Indeed, businesses in China already perceive a steadily in-
creasing level of corruption, according to nonprofit group Transparency
International’s corruption index.) Growth first sputters, then grinds to a
halt. Some provinces demand autonomy, and Beijing’s tax collectors are
rebuked. Infrastructure crumbles.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR BUSINESS: As has happened with Brazil, China
could still pay off nicely for foreign investors, regardless of its internal
strife. But it will take a lot of local knowledge to get the payout. Long-term
investments may sour, especially if the Communist Party cedes economic
and political control.
3 EMPEROR
OF ASIA
China grows, but only as fast as its neighbors.
4 EMPEROR OF
THE WORLD
China’s speedy growth tips all the scales in its favor.