Sir Nadeem R

The Relationship between PROFITABILITY & Various Economic Indicators
ABSTRACT:
Profitability is the most discussed issue of the business sector. A number of factors have been suggested to increase the profits of a firm. Those factors are not always useful for all companies of a specific industry. Sometimes situations deviate from what theories say. We have discussed the same in this report that whether the profitability of our industry is consistent with the theories. We have analyzed Fertilizer industry of Pakistan, taking under consideration the statistics of four listed companies of KSE, which are as follow: 4. Fouji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFCL) 5. Engro Chemicals Pakistan Limited (Engro) 6. Fouji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) 7. Dawood Hercules Chemicals Limited (DHCL)
Research Topic:
Linkage of following financial and economic profitability of Fertilizer sector in Pakistan; 8. Liquidity (Current Ratio & Quick Ratio) 9. Leverage 10.Market Price Per Share 11.Year to Year Growth In Revenues 12.GDP 13.GNP indicators with
Theories about Profitability:

"Perhaps no term or concept in economic discussion is used with a more bewildering variety of well established meanings than profit." Frank Knight (1934, p, 480).
In a noninflationary world of family firms using one-period capital inputs with no taxes or debt, measuring profit would be a relatively straightforward matter of deducting expenses from receipts. The accountant's books and the economist's books would coincide. But in the presence of long-lived assets of various maturities, price changes, debt financing, and taxation, the two book keeping systems diverge and researchers face some difficult questions. Should profit-type income include net interest payments? How holding gains on real assets or on net financial liabilities should be treated? Should profitability be measured on gross capital stock (including depreciation in the numerator) or net stock (excluding depreciation), and indeed are average accounting rates of profit meaningful at all? Trade-off theory of capital structure basically entails offsetting the costs of debt against the benefits of debt. MM 1963 introduced the tax benefit of debt. Later work led to an optimal capital structure which is given by the trade off theory. The first element usually considered as the cost of debt is usually the financial distress costs or bankruptcy costs of debt. It is important to note that this includes the direct and indirect bankruptcy costs. Trade-off theory can also include the agency costs from agency theory as a cost of debt to explain why companies dont have 100% debt as expected from MM 1963. 95% of empirical papers in this area of study look at the conflict between managers and shareholders. The others look at conflicts between debt holders and shareholders. Both are equally important to explain how the agency theory is related to the trade-off theory. Following is a brief description of profitability in term of several financial and economic indicators.
Leverage and profitability

Theories of capital structure indicate that profitability is an important determinant of leverage. Element of financial risk is high in highly leveraged companies as compared to low leveraged companies. Equity holders are to be rewarded with a higher financial premium in case of highly geared companies. The more the leveraged firm, more the profits are related to it according to the general perception.
Liquidity & Profitability

The firms are considered more sustainable which have good liquidity. This is backed by the phrase, one in hand is better than two in the bush. The profits are related to it theoretically. More liquid a firm is, more strongly it can face its creditors. This will ultimately increase firms strength.
Market price/share & profitability

Usually as per analysis market value of share is linked to profitability and dividends of the company which is also inherently linked with profits of the company. Companies in fertilizer sector with substantial profits have a higher market value as compared to companies with low profits. So it is perceived
that higher market value of a firm leads to higher profitability.
Growth in Revenues & profitability

Growth in revenues determines the future outlooks and market value of the company. As revenue increases it not only helps to increase the value of shareholder but provides liquidity to finance the profitable projects which may lead to integration and diversification.
GDP & Profitability

GDP is an economic indicator showing income on domestic basis. Usually when GDP of a country increases, the firms and industries flourish. Increase in GDP, thus, have a direct impact on profitability.
GNP & Profitability

It is also an economic indicator on national and international basis. Increase in exports and decrease in imports of fertilizer products would lead to increase in GNP. Hence exporting more products may lead firms to earn more and increased profitability.
A Brief Overview of Fertilizer Sector in Pakistan:

Pakistan, an impoverished and underdeveloped country, has suffered from decades of internal political disputes, low levels of foreign investment, and a costly, ongoing confrontation with neighboring India. However, IMF-approved government policies, bolstered by generous foreign assistance and renewed access to global markets since 2001, have generated solid macroeconomic recovery the last five years. Pakistan has moved from an economy heavily dependent on agriculture to a relatively balanced economy based on services, industry and agriculture. As of FY07, agriculture contributed 20% to the overall GDP. The government policies are directed towards improvement of agricultural output through increased credit disbursements to the agricultural sector and improvement in irrigation. Fertilizer usage in Pakistan is low and the current fertilizer consumption stands at 162.5kg per hectare. This is in large part responsible for the low yield per hectare of cultivated land which stands at 1.44tn per hectare. Fertilizer consumption closely follows economic growth of the country as exhibited by the strong positive correlation (R2=0.9841) between fertilizer consumption per hectare and nominal GDP. As the economy is expected to perform well in the future with an estimated nominal GDP growth of 14%, we expect fertilizer penetration to increase to 187kg per hectare. This greater demand is expected to continue in the future as economic growth continues. The industry capacity currently stands at 5.8mntpa whereas local demand is
6.8mntpa. This excessive demand ensures sales of total production. Pakistans fertilizer manufacturers have low resource costs due to feedstock gas subsidy advanced by the government. Through this subsidy manufacturers are able to get feed stock gas at significantly lower rates than the market which improves their profitability. This subsidy is expected to remain in place at least for the next three to four years i.e. until the industry faces an excess supply situation. Later on the subsidy may be withdrawn from that portion of production which is exported. Production directed towards local sales is expected to continue receiving the subsidy. The Companies in our coverage are dominant players who hold attractive investment portfolios. This includes FFCs investments in FFBL and ENGROs investments in various subsidiaries.
Types of fertilizer
Urea, which represents 65% of total fertilizer consumed and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), which accounts for 18%, are the main types of fertilizer used in Pakistan, but there is a total of eight different fertilizer products which fall into three categories. Urea, along with calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) and ammonium sulphate (AS) together make up almost three fourths of total fertilizer consumption and come under the nitrogenous category. Under the phosphatic category which makes up about 27%, is DAP, triple super phosphate (TSP), single super phosphate (SSP) and nitrophosphate (NP). And under the last category, potassic is sulphate of potash which makes up only 1%. Since the soil in Pakistan generally tends to be deficient in nitrogen, urea is the most used fertilizer. DAP is used, as most phosphatic fertilizers are to counter the effect of the acidic urea and maintain levels of fertility in the soil. Pakistans agricultural output has suffered in the recent past due to adverse weather conditions and crop spoilage. The government is omitted to improve agriculture performance through the following measures 1) Irrigation system improvement 2) Subsidy to farmers. 3) Encouraging use of fertilizer. 4) Above average credit disbursements As a result of these policies, yield per hectare of Pakistan is showing gradual improvement although it is still low as compared to other countries. Currently it stands at 1.44tn per hectare.
Statistical Analysis
HYPOTHESIS TESTING H0: Liquidity, measured by current ratio has no significant effect on profitability.
H0: Higher degree of leverage does not lead to change in profitability in fertilizer sector firms listed on KSE. H0: MARKET PRICE PER SHARES has no significant effect on profitability. H0: GDP has no significant effect on profitability. H0: GNP has no significant effect on profitability. H0: Growth in Revenues has no significant effect on profitability.
Before going to an industry analysis, there is an individual analysis of each firm how the profitability of the firm is affected by liquidity ratio.
Testing tool: CHI SQUARE and LINEAR REGRESSION LINKAGE OF CURRENT RATIO ON PROFITABILITY
FAUJI FERTILIZERS:Fauji Fertilizer is directly affected by liquidity, as the co-efficient of determination (R=76%) indicates strong relationship between the two variables. Also looking at related graph, we find upward trend in profitability as liquidity increases. For Fouji Fertilizer, there is positive relationship between profitability and current ratio of liquidity.
Model 1
R .760(a)
R Square .577
Adjusted R Square .436
Std. Error of the Estimate 5.80487
Durbin-Watson 2.227
a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
Histogram
Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
2.0
1.5
y c n e u q e1.0 r F
0.5
0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mean = 1.28E-15 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5
Regression Standardized Residual
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM:Model of FFBL indicates that the company is not as much dependent on the liquidity as Fouji Fertilizers. Again strong correlation can be seen in the above table. But the co efficient of determination is weaker, which shows that though a positive relation exist between profitability and liquidity, but the height of strength is not as much as for others. D-W value is more than 2, which mean that there is no auto correlation in the data.
Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .627(a) .393 .190 62.30031 a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
Durbin-Watson 2.805
Histogram
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = 9.44E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5
Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

1.0
0.8
b o r P 0.6 m u C d e t 0.4 c e p x E
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
DAWOOD HERCULES:Dawood Hercules has less affect of liquidity, as R2 is 12.9% which mean that the relation is not significantly strong. Also adjusted R square is negative, which is also clearly indicating that the liquidity is not a big consideration in Dawood Hercules. We also ran regression and F-stats for Dawood Hercules, so that we should have better insight of the liquidity and profitability. That showed no any significant relation between the two variables.
Model Summary(b)
Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .359(a) .129 -.162 45.09484 a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 901.015 6100.633
Durbin-Watson 3.288
Model
Df 1 3
Mean Square 901.015 2033.544
F .443
Sig. .553(a)
7001.648 4 a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constant 36.348 43.596 ) Current -14.602 21.936 Ratio a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Standardized Coefficients Beta .834 -.359 -.666 .466 .553
Histogram
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = 8.33E-17 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
ENGRO CHEMICALS:Engro Chemicals is surprisingly different from the rest of industry, while analyzing for liquidity. The company has no significant effect of current ratio on profits. Very low values of R and R 2 mean that the positive relation between CR and profitability has no any significance. For certainty, we also analyzed this company by running regression and constructing ANOVA table, but it did not show any indication which can prove strong relation between liquidity and profitability.
Model Summary(b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .047(a) .002 -.497 a Predictors: (Constant), Current ratio b Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 17.10329
ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 1.307 585.045
Model
df 1 2
Mean Square 1.307 292.522
F .004
Sig. .953(a)
586.352 3 a Predictors: (Constant), Current ratio b Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constan 27.257 t) Current -.898 ratio a Dependent Variable: EBIt % age Std. Error 28.322 13.433 change -.047 Standardized Coefficients Beta .962 -.067 .437 .953
Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change

1.0
0.8
b o r P 0.6 m u C d e t c0.4 e p x E
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
LINKAGE OF LEVERAGE WITH PROFITABILITY

FAUJI FERTILIZERS:Even debt is the most dependent variable of todays firms, but here in the fertilizer sector of Pakistan, its contradictory to that. The Fouji Fertilizer is less dependent on the debt so this is a low leveraged firm. Following model is giving clear indication that there is very low association (R2=.236) between the two variables.
Model Summary Adjusted R R R Square Square .486(a) .236 -.018 a Predictors: (Constant), Leverage% b Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 7.79986
Durbin-Watson 2.183
Also Adjusted R square is negative, which tells that after the adjustment we dont see any strong relation between profitability and leverage. But positive value of beta (.486) tells that an upward slope exist between variables, so at
least they have connection.

Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constan -93.998 109.682 t) Leverag 1.906 1.977 e% a Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Standardized Coefficients Beta -.857 .486 .964 .454 .406
Histogram
Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = -5.55E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N =5
Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM LIMITED:Model Summary Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .808(a) .653 .538 .81198 a Predictors: (Constant), EBIT %age change Model 1
Durbin-Watson 1.708
b Dependent Variable: Leverage %
The negative value of beta (-0.808) in the following table indicates an inverse relationship between debt and profitability. The results are surprising in this industry. There are some valid reasons for this, we will discuss them later. So even the theory is opposite to it, but there is no dependence of profitability on leverage.
Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constant) 69.600 .460 EBIT %age -.014 .006 change a Dependent Variable: Levergae %
Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Beta 151.415 -.808 -2.379 .000 .098
95% Confidence Interval for B Lower Bound 68.137 -.033 Upper Bound 71.063 .005
Histogram
Dependent Variable: Levergae %

2.0
Dependent Variable: Levergae %

1.0
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = 2.1E-14 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N =5
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
DAWOOD HERCULES:Model Summary Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .535(a) .287 .049 40.80494 a Predictors: (Constant), leverage% b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
Durbin-Watson 2.634
Following table of coefficients shows a negative beta (-0.535), which mean the debt and profitability are oppositely related. Because there is no positive relation between two variables, discussion of strength of correlation is useless.
Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta (Consta 81.926 67.470 nt) leverage -2.574 2.345 -.535 % a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
1.214 -1.098
.312 .353
Histogram
2.0
1.5
y c n e u q1.0 e r F
0.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = 2.5E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5
ENGRO CHEMICALS:Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .261(a) .068 -.398 16.52835 a Predictors: (Constant), Leverage b Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change ANOVA(b) Model 1 Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 39.979 546.373
Model
df 1 2
Mean Square 39.979 273.186
F .146
Sig. .739(a)
586.352 3 a Predictors: (Constant), Leverage b Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change
Positive value of beta (0.261) indicates a positive relation between leverage and profitability. Engros profits are related to debt, though not strongly. There are very low values of R2 and a negative value of adjusted R2, which mean that the correlation is weak.
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
B Std. Error (Consta 15.868 26.383 nt) Leverag .321 .840 e a Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change
Beta .601 .261 .383 .609 .739
We also constructed ANOVA table to see deeply, that either the relation is really weak. The answer is, yes. This is due to the low F-value, which is not significant for the hypothesis to be accepted.
Histogram
1.0

1.0
0.8
0.8
y c n e0.6 u q e r F
0.4
0.2 Mean = -5.55E-17 Std. Dev. = 0.816 N=4
0.2
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING H0: Liquidity, measured by current ratio has no significant effect on profitability.
TEST OF ASSOCIATION USING CHI SQUARE:Chi-Square Tests Value 304.000( a) 106.344 .046 19 Df 289 289 1 Asymp. Sig. (2-sided) .261 1.000 .830
Pearson Chi-Square Likelihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear Association N of Valid Cases
a 324 cells (100.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is .05.
Results:
Pearson chi square test rejects the above described null hypothesis.
200
167.4 150
100 Current Ratio
61.8 50 37.46 23.78 10.5 0 1 0.94 2 2.1 0.9 3 11.6 0.91 4 1.07 5 10.5 1.04 6 3.8 1.17 7 3.15 12 -30.2 -50 EBIT % age change ]Curre 2.07 14 15 2.03 16 -26.4 35.67 22.9 1.34 -4 1.46 8 9 1.53 10 1.53 11 1.2 13 1.7 0.45 3.1 17 6.99 1.6 18 1.8 1.54 19 46.2 39.07 32.79
REGRESSION ANALYSIS:Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .050(a) .003 -.056 43.03341 a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual 80.414
Model
Df 1
Mean Square 80.414 1851.874
F .043
Sig. .837(a)
31481.86 17 6 Total 31562.28 18 0 a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio
b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Results:
Running simple regression on the fertilizer industry, the hypothesis is rejected, due to insignificant value of F-stats. Thus we can interpret that the fertilizer sectors profitability is dependent upon liquidity measured by current ratio.
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constant 28.480 24.197 ) Current -3.035 14.565 Ratio a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.177 -.050 -.208 .255 .837
Histogram
y4 c n e u q3 e r F
2
1 Mean = -1.13E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.972 N = 19
0 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Re gression Standa rdiz ed Res idual
No rm a l P -P P lo t of R eg re ss io n S tan dar dized R esid u a l
Dep end e n t V ariab le: % a g e c h a ng e in E BIT

1 .0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
O bserved Cum P ro b
H0: Higher degree of leverage does not lead to change in profitability in fertilizer sector firms listed on KSE.
TEST OF ASSOCIATION USING CHI SQUARE:200
150
EBIT% Change
100
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-50 LEVERAGE% EBIT %
REGRESSION ANALYSIS:-
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constan 4.153 26.130 t) Leverage .426 .524 % a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Result: Standardized Coefficients Beta .159 .193 .813 .876 .428
We shall reject the null hypothesis. So the leverage is significant in increasing the profitability.
Histogram Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

1.0
7 6 5 0.8
y c n e4 u q e r F3
2 1 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Mean = -1.39E-17 Std. Dev. = 0.972 N = 19
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
Results:
The regression and chi square tests conclude that the fertilizer industry has positive association with debt in term of profitability. Thus the correlations are not strong enough, but the positive values of R and beta mean that leverage effects the industry according to the theory.
LINKAGE OF MARKET PROFITABILTY
PRICE
PER
SHARES
WITH
H0: MARKET PRICE PER SHARES has no significant effect on profitability.
FAUJI FERTILIZERS
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM DAWOOD HERCULES ENGRO CHEMICALS

The model of regression is constructed for all the companies simultaneously. Looking at the coefficients, the negative value of beta tells that the market price per share has no positive relation with profitability. The values of R and R2 are very low, so it comes out that profitability is independent of market price per share, for these four fertilizer companies.
Model Summary (b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .260(a) .068 -.398 16.53155 Predictors: (Constant), Market price per share B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change ANOVA (b) Model 1 Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual 39.768 546.584
Model
Df 1 2
Mean Square 39.768 273.292
F .146
Sig. .740(a)
Total 586.352 3 Predictors: (Constant), Market price per share B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Coefficients (a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) 36.787 Market price -.062 per share a Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Std. Error 30.843 .163 Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.193 -.260 -.381 .355 .740
Histogram
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mean = 1.94E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.816 N=4

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
Hence we concluded that there is no significant relationship between profits before taxes and interests and market price per share.
LINKAGE OF GDP WITH PROFITABILTY H0: GDP has no significant effect on profitability.
FAUJI FERTILIZERS:Positive value of beta indicates relationship of profitability and GDP. Increasing the GDP, increases the profits of fertilizer companies. Though the
relationship is not very strong but it exists.

Model Summary (b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .258(a) .066 -.245 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 8.62542
ANOVA table shows that the significance of relation is very weak.
Model
df 1 3
F .213
Sig. .676(a)
239.048 4 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GDP 2.778 Std. Error 19.665 Standardized Coefficients Beta .141 .462 .897 .676
1.279 2.771 .258 a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

Histogram

1.0
2.0
0.8
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mean = 1.25E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
The trend can be seen from the graph above, that GDP is an indicator of increasing profits.
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM:Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .204(a) .041 -.278 78.27698 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
Fouji Fertilizer BIN Qasim also has positive relation with GDP. The positive value of beta (.204) means the profitability is dependent upon GDP. But the relation is not so significant due to negative value of adjusted R2 and low value of F in the ANOVA table.
ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual 795.240
Model
df 1
Mean Square 795.240 6127.286
F .130
Sig. .743(a)
18381.85 3 8 Total 19177.09 4 9 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GDP -14.979 Std. Error 178.466 Standardized Coefficients Beta -.084 .360 .938 .743

1.0
GDP AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 GDP 50 0 EBIT
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
2007 -50
Observed Cum Prob
2006
2005
2004
2003
If we see the graph, we can conclude that the relation is not as much stronger as should be.
DAWOOD HERCULES:-
Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .302(a) .091 -.212 46.05497 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
Dawood Hercules has a positive and greater value of beta than that of previous. Mean there is positive slope between GDP and profitability of Dawood Hercules.
Model
df 1 3
Mean Square 638.467 2121.060
F .301
Sig. .621(a)
7001.648 4 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
The value of F is not so significant that we can conclude a strong relationship between the two variables.
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GDP -45.870 Std. Error 105.002 Standardized Coefficients Beta -.437 .549 .692 .621

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
GDP AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 GDP 50 0 2007 -50 2006 2005 2004 2003 EBIT
Looking at the graph we cannot conclude a relationship, but the positive value of R and beta cannot be ignored so easily.
ENGRO CHEMICALS:
Engro Chemicals is strongly correlated with GDP. The very high value of R and beta (0.869) mean a positive slope between profitability and GDP. The value of R2 (75.6%) and adjusted R2 are both consistent with the relationship.
Model Summary (b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .869(a) .756 .634 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP b Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 8.45896
While we constructed ANOVA table, we see that the value of F is significantly large indicating strong relationship between profitability and GDP.
ANOVA (b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 443.244 143.108
Model
Df 1 2
Mean Square 443.244 71.554
F 6.195
Sig. .131(a)
586.352 3 a Predictors: (Constant), GDP B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Coefficients (a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) -61.659 Std. Error 35.255 Standardized Coefficients Beta -1.749 .222
GDP 11.576 4.651 A Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change
.869
2.489
.131

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
GDP AND EBIT

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
% of sales
GDP
EBIT
From the graph, the results can be interpreted, that the fluctuations in profitability are connected to the GDP.
LINKAGE OF GNP WITH PROFITABILTY H0: GNP has no significant effect on profitability.
FAUJI FERTILIZERS:The relation between GNP and EBIT (profitability) is not much significant. The reason is negative value of beta (-0.070). The values of R and R2 are of no use that the relation is inverse between the two variables.
Model Summary(b)
Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .070(a) .005 -.327 8.90487 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
ANOVA table also does not give any strong relation between two variables as the F value is very low.
Model
df 1 3
F .015
Sig. .911(a)
239.048 4 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GNP 15.692 Std. Error 33.441 Standardized Coefficients Beta .469 -.121 .671 .911
-.559 4.624 -.070 a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
25
20
15 GDP EBIT %AGE CHANGE 10
0 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
The insignificance can be seen in the above graph between EBIT and GNP, for Fouji Fertilizer.
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM:The value of beta is negative again, so the relation is inverse between GNP and EBIT. Adjusted R2 is also negative, insisting to not accept the correlation between the variables.
Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .226(a) .051 -.265 77.89087 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
ANOVA table gives very low F-value, indicating no significant relation between two variables.
ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual 976.137
Model
df 1
Mean Square 976.137
F .161
Sig. .715(a)
18200.96 3 6066.987 2 Total 19177.09 4 9 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients Coefficients B (Consta nt) GNP 164.562 -16.225 Std. Error 292.511 40.450 -.226 Beta .563 -.401 .613 .715
a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
GNP AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 GNP 50 0 2007 -50 2006 2005 2004 2003 EBIT
The graph tells the opposite fluctuations among the two variables, indicating weak relationship.
DAWOOD HERCULES:Model Summary (b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .507(a) .257 .009 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 41.64856
The negative beta value (-.507) tells that the variables are again inversely related. So apparently there is no relationship between EBIT and GNP.
Model
df 1 3
Mean Square 1797.841 1734.602
F 1.036
Sig. .384(a)
7001.648 4 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
ANOVA is also unable to build any significant relation between two variables.
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GNP 168.719 Std. Error 156.407 Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.079 -1.018 .360 .384
-22.019 21.629 -.507 a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
GNP AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 GNP 50 0 2007 -50 2006 2005 2004 2003 EBIT
The graph is again oppositely sketched, so no direct relationship of profitability on GNP.
ENGRO CHEMICALS:Model Summary(b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .656(a) .431 .146 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 12.91730
Engro is positively correlated with GNP, like in GDP, in term of profitability. The significance is strengthened by large and significant value of F in ANOVA table.
Model
df 1 2 3
Mean Square 252.638 166.857
F 1.514
Sig. .344(a)
586.352 a Predictors: (Constant), GNP
B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change
Unstandardized Coefficients B (Consta nt) GNP -34.191
Coefficients (a) Standardized Coefficients Beta -.699 .656 1.230 .557 .344
Std. Error 48.900
8.401 6.827 a Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
GNP AND EBIT

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
% of sales
GNP
EBIT
The fluctuations in the graph can be noticed. They are along the same
proportion, giving strong relationship between GNP and EBIT.
LINKAGE OF PROFITABILITY:
GROWTH
IN
REVENUE
WITH
H0: Growth in Revenues has no significant effect on profitability.

FAUJI FERTILIZERS:There is very strong relation between growth in revenues and profitability. The large values of R and adjusted R2 are clear indications that the profits are dependent upon change in revenues.
Model Summary (b) Adjusted R R R Square Square .682(a) .465 .286 a Predictors: (Constant), MKT PRICE b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 Std. Error of the Estimate 6.53108
Model
df 1 3
Mean Square 111.083 42.655
F 2.604
Sig. .205(a)
239.048 4 a Predictors: (Constant), MKT PRICE b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT
The value of F-stats is also significantly high that we can easily conclude the strong relationship between the two variables.
Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constan -20.823 20.352 t) MKT .273 .169 PRICE a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Standardized Coefficients Beta -1.023 .682 1.614 .382 .205
Histogram
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mean = 6.66E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N =5

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
FAUJI FERTILIZERS BIN QASIM:Model Summary(b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .981(a) .963 .950 15.44412 a Predictors: (Constant), GROWTH IN REVENUES b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1 Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim is also strongly correlated with Revenues in term of profitability, due to very strong R values (98.1%). ANOVA (b) Sum of Squares 18461.53 6 715.563
Model Regressi on Residual
df 1 3
Mean Square 18461.536 238.521
F 77.400
Sig. .003(a)
19177.09 4 9 a Predictors: (Constant), GROWTH IN REVENUES b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) 6.433 GROWTH IN 1.283 REVENUES a Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Std. Error 8.373 .146 Standardized Coefficients Beta .768 .981 8.798 .498 .003
Total

1.0
0.8
0.2
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Cum Prob
Growth in ReVenue AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 50 0 2007 -50 2006 2005 2004 2003 GROWTH IN REVENUES % EBIT
Looking at the graph, we can see the strong relation between two variables.
DAWOOD HERCULES:The profitability of Dawood Hercules is strongly dependent upon the change in revenues. The R value is high which shows strong correlation.
Model Summary (b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate 1.000(a) 1.000 1.000 .00000 a Predictors: (Constant), GROWTH IN REVENUES % b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Model 1
ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 7001.648 .000
Model
df 1 3
Mean Square 7001.648 .000
F .
Sig. .(a)
7001.648 4 a Predictors: (Constant), GROWTH IN REVENUES % b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) .000 GROWTH IN 1.000 REVENUES % a Dependent Variable: %age change Std. Error .000 .000 in EBIT Standardized Coefficients Beta . 1.000 . . .
Growth in revenues AND EBIT

200 150 % of sales 100 50 0 2007 -50 2006 2005 2004 2003 Growth in Revenues EBIT
The graph also tells strong association between profitability and growth in revenues.
ENGRO CHEMICALS:Model Summary (b) Adjusted R Std. Error of R R Square Square the Estimate .278(a) .077 -.384 16.44862 a Predictors: (Constant), Growth in revenues B Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Model 1
Though the relationship is direct due to positive values of R and beta, but the strength is not as high as in the other company case.
Model
df 1 2
Mean Square 45.237 270.557
F .167
Sig. .722(a)
586.352 3 a Predictors: (Constant), Growth in revenues b Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change
The F-value is not as highly significant as in the case of other companies.

Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error (Constant) 24.120 8.846 Growth in .120 .294 revenues a Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change Standardized Coefficients Beta 2.727 .278 .409 .112 .722
Histogram
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mean = 2.78E-17 Std. Dev. = 0.816 N=4
CONCLUSION
The four firms are analyzed in our study of fertilizer sector of Pakistan. We came with following results. 14.Liquidity has statistically significant positive effect on the profitability of fertilizer industry. 15.In fertilizer sector, leverage does not significantly affect the profitability of firm. 16.Average market Price per Share has no significant effect on profitability of fertilizer industry. 17.Year to year Growth in Revenues has significant effect on the profitability of firms in Fertilizer Industry of Pakistan 18.GNP of country has profitability of firms. significantly positive effect on the
19.GDP of Pakistan has statistically significant effect on the profitability of the firms in Fertilizer Industry of Pakistan.
KEY FINDINGS
20.After having deep insight of the fertilizer sector, we see that the sector keeps high level of liquidity. Because this is a chemical industry, and all chemical industries keep high liquidity. Because the chemicals used in the production cannot be acquired once in a year due to their vulnerability to expire. So they have to buy on regular basis. So their liquidity is high. 21.We came with another finding, that the current ratio and quick ratios are almost same. Which simply mean that they dont have high inventory piled up? That is why; we didnt use the quick ratio along with current ratio. 22.All over the world, the corporations and financial institutes are moving toward debt financing to be saved against government taxes. But contrary to this all, the fertilizer sector in Pakistan is mostly not depending upon it, as per statistical analysis. 23.The reason for above said implications is simple. The fertilizer sector is a selling sector like automobile industry. Whatever they produce is must be sold because of higher demand. So they dont have high level of receivables, instead they take money in advance. So they dont have any risk in the business, and the profits are not highly related to the leverage.
REFERENCES:
http://wiki.answers.com www.levy.org/pubs www.engro.com www.ffc.com.pk www.ffbl.com www.dawoodhercules.com www.sbp.org.pk www.fertilizer.org www.pakistaneconomist.com www.allbusiness.com www.goliath.ecnext.com

Sir Nadeem R

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The Relationship between PROFITABILITY & Various Economic Indicators

Theories about Profitability:

Leverage and profitability

Liquidity & Profitability

Market price/share & profitability

that higher market value of a firm leads to higher profitability.

Growth in Revenues & profitability

GDP & Profitability

GNP & Profitability

A Brief Overview of Fertilizer Sector in Pakistan:

Adjusted R Square .436

Std. Error of the Estimate 5.80487

a Predictors: (Constant), Current Ratio b Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Mean = 1.28E-15 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5

Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Mean = 9.44E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5

Regression Standardized Residual

Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Observed Cum Prob

Mean Square 901.015 2033.544

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Mean = 8.33E-17 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5

Regression Standardized Residual

Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Observed Cum Prob

ANOVA(b) Sum of Squares Regressi on Residual Total 1.307 585.045

Mean Square 1.307 292.522

Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: EBIt % age change

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Observed Cum Prob

LINKAGE OF LEVERAGE WITH PROFITABILITY

least they have connection.

Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change

0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Mean = -5.55E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N =5

Regression Standardized Residual

Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: EBIT % age change

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Observed Cum Prob

b Dependent Variable: Leverage %

Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Beta 151.415 -.808 -2.379 .000 .098

Dependent Variable: Levergae %

Dependent Variable: Levergae %

0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Mean = 2.1E-14 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N =5

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Regression Standardized Residual

Observed Cum Prob

Dependent Variable: %age change in EBIT

0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Mean = 2.5E-16 Std. Dev. = 0.866 N=5