Jakarta Resilient Toward a Coastal Defence Strategy Summary Project Description

APRIL2010

A. Background

In November 2009, the State Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) on behalf of the Government of Indonesia (GoI) submitted a request to the Government of the Netherlands (GoN) to assist the GoI in the formulation of a master plan for coastal management and protection for the island of Java, and a detailed strategic plan for a coastal defense system for Jakarta. The GoN gave a positive reply to the request of the GoI. Urban drainage and flood management issues in cities located along the coast are similar in many aspects. Flooding from rainfall and from the sea is relevant for the coastal urban settlements in Indonesia, particularly on Java with its heavily populated urban centers. Guidelines for adaptation strategies in urban areas both located inland and along coastal belt of Java are to be developed and field tested, with the most urgent attention for coastal cities and waterfront cities. Apart from the capital DKI Jakarta, the City of Semarang is also experiencing these impacts since more than a decade ago. An overall strategy for Java coastal cities is therefore an urgent issue. In order to prepare and facilitate the Government of Indonesia to develop a Strategy for Java, as first initiative the capital DKI Jakarta has been selected as a pilot study on how to develop adaptation strategies for the megacity. The lessons learned from the pilot-city can then be replicated to other coastal cities and areas along the Coast of Java Island. Many urban flood management initiatives in DKI Jakarta and the surrounding region, financed by donors and other International Financing Agencies, e.g. the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, JBIC, GoN, are ongoing and some are scheduled to start within a short time. Relations between the various initiatives are obvious. In order to avoid stand alone initiatives it is essential to closely coordinate the activities as specified in this Terms of Reference (ToR) with the various ongoing activates in the region, and will ultimately lead to an overall and concerted effort for future integrated flood management approaches, with full ownership by all important stakeholders. Currently, a draft Spatial Plan for Jakarta, Jakarta 2030 is being circulated for discussions and public consultation purposes. In this draft plan a series of new polders are planned along the northern coast of Jakarta, including the harbor of Tanjung Priok. Recently, discussions were held between the DKI Planning Unit with a group of specialists and professionals on the water management issues of the draft plan. The forum strongly recommended giving special attention to urban water management of the new plan with special emphasis on future sea level rise, land subsidence and springtides. The draft plan includes land reclamation works along the Northern Coast of Jakarta. The activities, specified in this project summary should take the final Spatial Plan of DKI Jakarta 2030 as guideline for the strategy development of the coastal defence systems. Considering the many uncertain elements, such as demographic development, climate change, etc., the focus should be placed upon identification of No Regret Strategies.

B.
1.

Main Challenges
Population Growth and Land Use

Jakarta Resilient Toward a Coastal Defence Strategy

By 2050, it is predicted that 70 per cent of the world will be city dwellers. Some of the fastest growth is occurring in Asia, where mega cities are blossoming, particularly in developing countries. Indonesia's capital Jakarta lays in the metropolitan area comprising of DKI Jakarta (the capital area), parts of Bogor District (West Java Province), parts of Tangerang District (Banten Province) and Bekasi District (West Java Province), hereinafter JABOTABEK. This metropolitan area has a population of about 16 million and is expected to grow to about 30 million by 2030. The percentage of population below the poverty line is about 20%. Jakarta's population growth is putting huge pressure on the urban environment. Traffic is gridlocked, air quality is at crisis point and Jakarta's rivers are choked with human waste and garbage. Poor sanitation also creates serious health threats. Population pressure converted half the citys small lakes into residential or commercial areas, leading to severe reductions on retention capacity and increases in peak flow discharges. At present less than 10% of DKI Jakarta area can be defined as open and green areas, while such area should cover 30%, according to the government regulations. As the built-up area expands, its water retention capacity for direct rainfall reduces while overflow of the 13 rivers and streams increases a runoff from the upper watersheds increase due to deforestation and overbuilding in the Bogor and Puncak areas. The upper watershed runoff has increasing sediment loads due to erosion and landslides from the deforested build-up areas and, in turn, this exacerbates the damage of flooding downstream. About 150,000 ha of the city are below 2m above sea level: clearly, floods that coincide with high tide are further exacerbated by back-up of the flow of rivers and drains. 2. Land subsidence due to uncontrolled groundwater abstraction

Rapid urbanization along with severe uncontrolled and over-extraction of groundwater in areas not connected to the municipality water supply distribution system leads to continuous subsidence of the ground surface. Over pumping of the shallow and deep aquifers underlying the area causes land subsidence that, in turn, exacerbates local flooding due to poor and impeded internal drainage and reduction of outlet capacity. Failure to address groundwater abstraction controls could exacerbate local flooding and traffic disruption from normal rainfall in the medium term and require expensive pumped polder systems and large outlet infrastructure over large areas. The absence of effective regulatory institutions, not only for land-use control, but also for groundwater abstraction, poor incentive mechanisms coupled with poor urban sanitation is causing both a degradation of groundwater quality, saline intrusion into the aquifer in addition to land subsidence. Although groundwater constitutes about 20% of the current Jakarta water supply, replacement of these groundwater sources and natural urban growth will imply a 100% increase in surface water imports from West Java and Banten by 2020. It has been proven that groundwater abstraction is a major element causing subsidence. The Dutch assisted Non-structural Jakarta Flood Management Project revealed that the coastal area in north Jakarta has reached a very critical level in terms of land subsidence. Recent subsidence measurements indicate that a 2.5 cm/year subsidence rate was too conservative and recommends that the value should be considered much higher. Most experts assume a rate of 7.5 10 cm/year, but the latest figures show that locally subsidence rates may reach 15 25 cm/year. This will bring the northern parts of Jakarta some 4 to 5 meters below sea level in the 15 20 years to come. This will lead to impeded drainage even for normal rainfall and permanent inundations from the sea even at low tides. These areas will become unsuitable for human settlements, unless a polder concept is being applied for these areas. Such polders already exist in many parts of Jakarta and in the colonial period additional proposals for polder extension were launched. [H. van Breen, 1922]. The draft spatial plan Jakarta 2030 envisaged further development of the northern coastal zone in an elaborate land reclamation schemes. 3. Urban Drainage and Flooding System

JABOTABEK suffers from increasing damaging flooding. It lies in the downstream area of Cisadane and Ciliwung rivers watershed and is also transacted by 11 minor streams which all

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discharge into the Jakarta Bay. Some of these rivers act as major drains that carry the sewage and storm drainage flows generated in the urban area as well as flood runoff from the watersheds. These normal and flood discharges are also a major source of pollution in Jakarta Bay as they carry waste and pollutants from storm drains that also serve as open sewers due to the absence of a sewerage system in most of JABOTABEK, with possible exception of part of the Jakarta Central Business District (CBD), whose effluents discharge into the larger open drains and rivers. From its beginnings Jakarta has been prone to flooding due to its unfavorably low location on the coast of the Java Sea. It is located within the river basin of several rivers transporting large amounts of water. Over the years the water contains more and more silt and sediments, while the peak flows becoming higher and skewed. Most of these changes in flow pattern are due to developments in the upstream parts of the river basins. For the past decade, climate change has also contributed to a change in river flows due to higher rainfall intensity and thus higher peak flows. These changes in rainfall pattern and river flow characteristic together with land subsidence in North Jakarta have created a major challenge for the drainage system of DKI Jakarta. Because of land subsidence the natural outflow into the sea does not exist anymore at many sea-outfalls. Although technically speaking engineering solutions for the banjir (flood) problem may be identified, these will require enormous, unrealistic amounts of funding, apart from the question of their social and environmentally feasibility. A main problem is the rapid obsolescence of flood protection standards. One of the major questions that arise is the frequency of the present flooding: is this a 10-year average return period event, a 25-year event or even a less infrequent event? It would seem that the design capacity of part of the present major flood and drainage network was designed for a 25-year event. If this is so, this design standard is wholly inadequate for a major high value Commercial Business District of land use. It must be realised that, even if the amount and intensity of a 5-year rainstorm does not change, the rapid degradation of the upper watershed (as well as urbanization) results in greater flood peaks: i.e. a 5-year storm gradually becomes a 25-year event! The reduction of open space and green area also affected the drainage flow pattern in DKI Jakarta. The direct runoff within the city is much higher than originally estimated for the design of the drainage system. In addition, the drainage system itself is very much affected by land subsidence leading to low and ineffective performance of the system. Any structural solution and adjustment of the physical infrastructure to appropriate protection levels will require careful economic, financial and social trade-offs. If financial and social constraints require a lower standard, then an enforceable system of non-structural flood control measures (flood insurance, flood proofing, and flood zoning) which, to date have been inconceivable and/or for which no appropriate urban and regional institution exists, should be seriously considered. The Ministry of Public Works and DKI are required to maintain flood control infrastructure, but actual budgetary allocations are substantially lower than what is needed to maintain the system. This has resulted in huge sediment build-up in floodways and drains, reducing protection levels from 25 years to less than five years. DKIs flood control systems are also adversely affected by weak enforcement of spatial plans and building regulations and uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater. With assistance from donors, including the Government of the Netherlands (GoN), the backlog of maintenance dredging will be addressed during the next ten years. In addition, new canals will be constructed to increase conveyance capacity of the urban drainage system. The issue of sustainable of any design standard is a major problem where no agency accepts or is allocated operational responsibility for maintenance and/or inadequate Operation and Maintenance (O&M) funding is provided. Maintenance neglect and lack of a sustainable fiscal framework for O&M is as large a cause of flooding through under-capacity as any physical or land-use control reason.

4.

Astronomic Tide

Whenever the Java Sea rises during the monthly lunar tidal cycle, water rushes inland and inundates parts of Muara Baru, which like 40 percent of Jakarta, and most of North Jakarta, lies below

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sea level. Jakarta is living on borrowed time, experts say. Nine years from now it will be at the mercy of an upswing in the tides unless city and national government officials finally do something about it. International experts predict tides will surge far inland without a proper sea defence system in place. The areas of the city most vulnerable to tidal flooding are Muara Baru, Muara Karang, Penjaringan, Pademangan, Tanjung Priok, Pluit, Koja and Kapuk Muara. Most are industrial areas surrounded by densely populated villages. Astronomic tidal fluctuation in the Bay of Jakarta has an 18.6 year cycle. On November 26, 2007 the astronomic cycle peaked in conjunction with annual spring tides and resulted in damaging floods from the sea that were largely unexpected. So far, it was assumed by the local government and community that Jakarta was only threatened by rain induced floods. A recent study on Flood Hazard Mapping clearly showed that from 2007 Jakarta will be severely threatened by floods from the sea also. Although the astronomic tidal cycle will retreat in the coming years after reaching its peak in 2007, the inundations from the sea will continue because of the ongoing land subsidence in the northern part of the city. Moreover, flooding will still occur when rain induced floods coincide with high spring tides. The cycle will start rising again in about 8 years from now and tidal floods will become particularly severe again. The peak of the next tidal cycle is expected in 2025 to occur. Continuous subsidence of the northern part of Jakarta combined with, and the expected rising limb of the astronomic tides over 8 years from now, and the sea level rise as result of climate change, and changing rainfall pattern and intensity due to climate change, will cause disastrous flooding in North Jakarta. Although the predicted figures for the sea level rise in the Bay of Jakarta is still far from accurate, some allowance for this phenomenon should be taken into consideration. While many engineering design studies have been done in the past, these have not considered the outfall difficulties and resulting backwater impact on internal drains that arise from the large tidal fluctuation in the Jakarta Bay and river estuaries. Most likely, a conservative analysis will required very large quantities of outfall pumping and huge low-lift pumping stations. These will increase costs and require failsafe and fully reliable operation.

5.

Urban Development Planning and Management

As the past flood protection and control measures were often strongly lacking behind the rapid growth of the city parts of them being implemented when the city population and built area were extended already two to three times comprehensive water and urbanization planning should be aimed for. Continuous future development of DKI Jakarta will require large flood control and flood risk management investments. Although many small and large water infrastructure improvements are in the course of being implemented in Jakarta, the overall aim of a holistic approach for DKI Jakarta urban development should be to tackle the problem based on a comprehensive cultural, water catchment area and urban development plan. Future DKI Urban Planning and Management now become more important to 21st century democratic Jakarta than it was in implementing the competing colonial and nationalist visions of the 20th. This has been realised by the municipal governments of DKI since the last decade. This can be seen in the carefully crafted Strategic Plan now being used to frame development of DKI both in the current and in the draft spatial plan of Jakarta 2030. Lingering effects of the economic crisis limited the citys financial capacity to address longstanding infrastructure needs. To accommodate the continuous population growth of the city, and the demands of new commercial development, every piece of land was used to its maximum. This has lead to the disappearance of open and green spaces previously functioning as detention or temporary storage for overland flow during heavy rainfall. Further loss of open and green spaces came about through the conversion of government owned parks to other land uses, such as schools, mosques, parking lots and commercial facilities. A large scale new development plan for the city was a plan for a new waterfront city located along the North Jakarta coast, comprising of a total area of about 2,700 hectares reclaimed from the Jakarta Bay. The Jakarta Waterfront Project was a national undertaking, and was approved through the Presidential Decree No 52/1995, that placed responsibility for the development within the DKI

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Governors office. It involved the creation of a new area of high-rise buildings, including renovation of the historic areas in North Jakarta and expansion of the recreational facilities along the northern coast. It was intended to be developed by private developers applying state of the art infrastructure technology. The plan for the 2,700 hectares, as scheduled for development in the 1985-2005 spatial plan was to use nearly 50% of the land for residential development, 15% for commercial and industrial uses, approx 5% to expand the port facilities, 14% for general facilities, and the remaining 16% for green areas, including the creation of a mangrove forest to protect the coastline against erosion. Work on the North Jakarta land reclamation began in 1996. The citys 1985-2005 spatial plan drawn up in the early 1980s was revised again in 1997. The revised plan was to guide the development of Jakarta until 2010 and included some reconsiderations of the basic assumptions of the initial 1985 plan, for example existing population density was given due consideration when planning new developments. Private investments are now actively being encouraged for the development of new reclaimed areas along the North Coast and are expected to continue for the next decades to come. However, a concerted coordination effort is essential for all ongoing and future public and private coastal development activities. The Strategic and Draft Spatial Plan Jakarta 2030 underscore the problems of limited water supply, annual flooding, inadequate garbage and sewage management, and the continuing challenge of providing enough decent and affordable housing for low income families. But what is notable about this plan is its emphasis placed on the environmental deficiencies in the JABOTABEK area, particularly DKI Jakarta, that involve more than just poor infrastructure service. A lack of open space and massive air and water pollution problems topped the list. Like problems in most metropolitan cities, the plan observes that Jakarta faces a problem of limited open space largely because it is being crowded out by economic activities. Air and water pollution, including industrial waste, are cited as related environmental deficiencies. The rapid loss of the open spaces and green areas means that even mid storm events result in excess water that cannot be naturally absorbed or retained. A system of key flood gates exists in some of the urban area canals and retention ponds. However, these suffer from blockage and may not be properly operated in a regional manner as they were designed for a smaller colonial Jakarta and are not operationally adapted to the present land-use or present urban flood hydrology. Recent storms in the last decade thus brought out the consequences of a failure to follow a logical urban development zoning plan in a natural floodway area. Certainly, a more integrated operation of the floodwater regulation network is required, especially one that reflects a consensus between upstream and downstream communities. Due to watershed degradation and urbanization, the flood peaks and damages may continue to increase while internal and main drain outflow congestion becomes worse, as outlined earlier. While many rightly point to watershed degradation as a major contributing factor to flooding, field conditions seem to imply that diversion of flood flows out of the Ciliwung River near Bogor to the Cisadane River may nor greatly reduce flood damage from rainfall and poor internal drainage within the Jakarta urban area. Although, a Western Diversion Canal (West Banjir Canal) was constructed in 1924 and the Cengkareng Floodway in 1982, the growth of the city has greatly outstripped its service area. Furthermore, these floodways, rivers and major drains have a reduced capacity due to a combination of river bed aggradations, siltation and solid waste dumping. Floodway encroachment through unauthorized development and squatting further reduce capacity and increase the physical, social and economic costs of flooding. Thus a combination of physical factors, neglect and, inaction have contributed to duration, frequency and spatial extent of flooding in the DKI Jakarta area.

6.

Institutions and Management Issues

The Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and DKI are responsible for managing Jakartas flood control system. MPW is responsible for floodways that cross provincial boundaries, while the Public Works Department of DKI (DPU-DKI) is responsible for drains and retention basins within its boundaries. A MPW flood control project unit was established in 1965 to undertake planning, implementation and O&M for JABOTABEK. Since the 1990s, DKI has assumed de facto responsibility

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for maintaining floodways under MPW, as MPW does not adequately allocate financial resources to maintain floodways under its jurisdiction. A basin management unit, Balai Besar Cisadane-Ciliwung was set up in 2006under DGWR in MPW. This new agency is responsible to operate and maintain flood drains, detention ponds, pumping plants, etc and carry out flood warning. Its funding is from central government (APBN) budgets while DKI Jakarta, Banten and West Java governments have limited involvement or control. A viable policy of cost recovery for O&M, flood warning, flood relief and disaster management must be instituted if physical structures are to maintain their design capacity and functionality under changing demographics, poverty alleviation and economic development scenarios. Taking the impact of climate change on flooding into consideration, e.g. change rainfall pattern and sea level rise, the urgency to give proper attention to institutional issues is more essential than before. The Project Concept Note prepared in 2007 for the Jakarta Emergency Dredging Initiative (JEDI), listed the following institutional root causes of flooding in the JABOTABEK area: Lack of enforcement of regulations on groundwater abstraction. Lack of enforcement of spatial plans and building regulations. Limited coverage of solid waste collection services. Insufficient funding for operations and maintenance. Limited technical expertise. Lack of enforcement of forest law and regulations. Insufficient funding for investments in new flood control infrastructure. Lack of coordination between authorities responsible for water resources management. Lack of incentives for interregional coordination. Absence of political leadership to address the above issues in integrated manner.

Although many of these issues have been given more attention in the various project initiatives during the last years, many of these institutional arrangements need further development, facilitation and guidance to become a sustainable institutional instrument and platform for collaboration and coordination.

7.

Previous Studies and Plans

Master Plan of Drainage and Flood Control of Jakarta (NEDECO, 1973). Study on Urban Drainage and Waste Water Disposal in DKI Jakarta (1991). Quick Reconnaissance Study Flood JABODETABEK (Rijkswaterstaat, 2002). Flood Management Study for DKI Jakarta Report (Rijkswaterstaat, 2003). Strategic Plan DKI Jakarta 2003-2007 (DKI, 2002). Evaluation of flood control options for Ciliwung-Jakarta (MPW, 2003). Drainage Management for Jakarta - Priority Assistance DKI 8 (Louis Berger et. al., 2004). Outline Plan for Major Drainage and Small Lakes Management in Jabodetabek-Bopunjur Area - Pusat 3.10 (Nippon Koei and Kwarsa Hexagon, 2005). Jakarta Flood Management: Non-structural Measures (Witteveen & Bos, Royal Haskoning, WL/Delft Hydraulics, HKV, Euroconsult Mott MacDonald, DHV 2007). Dutch assistance through the Partners for Water Programme. Integrated Planning for Space and Water (TU Delft, Demis BV, WL/Delft Hydraulics, MLD 2008). Dutch assistance through the Partner for Water Programme.

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Flood Hazard Mapping 2 Project (Deltaris, 2009) Dutch assistance through the Partners for Water Programme.

C.

Problem Definition

Taking the identified challenges in the previous sections, the ongoing and planned private development plans for the northern coastal areas, the previous and ongoing studies related to urban flooding and drainage of DKI Jakarta into consideration it is concluded that flooding from the sea in the northern areas of Jakarta has not been addressed or identified as a future problem. Actions are therefore urgently required to address the threat of flooding from the sea in a fundamental and systematic way. In addition, development plans of private investors along the coast should fit within the overall long term development plan and coastal defence strategy of Jakarta, taking into consideration government regulations and possible financial instruments to encourage or discourage certain development or investments. In order to arrive at a comprehensive and sustained flood management system of Jakarta, and to complement the previous and ongoing drainage and flood studies for DKI Jakarta, a coastal defence strategy need to be developed as a first phase of a comprehensive study. This phase should identify and elaborate No Regret measures only that need to be taken as a first step towards a comprehensive and detailed coastal defence system.

D.

Objectives

To develop a Coastal Defence Strategy for DKI Jakarta that can be replicated in other coastal areas of Java, as part of a Comprehensive and Integrated Urban Water Management System. A robust and resilient system is required to avoid disastrous flooding of Jakarta in the future. A technical and performance review of the existing coastal defence system is required and an improved or new system needs to be in place within the next 10 15 years. To identify institutional strategies for integrated regional collaboration and coordination and how to embed this project within existing and/or established institutional settings particularly with respect to cross-sectoral, -institution, and administrative collaboration and coordination in the JABOTABEK region.

E.
1.

Components and Outputs

A Coastal Defence Strategic Plan for DKI Jakarta, to support and complement a Comprehensive and Integrated Urban Water Management System. Expected outputs for this component are specified below: 2. Strategic Decision on the Coastal Defence Strategy Coastal Defence Road Map 2030

A Strategic Plan for integrated regional collaboration and coordination, building on existing coordination and collaboration structures. Expected outputs for this component are specified below: Strategic Decision on the Institutional Arrangement Capacity Building Road Map 2030

F.

Implementation Phases

The envisaged activities are distinguished into two phases, i.e. (i) Strategic Planning, and (ii) Road Map Development. The activities are based on the objectives as specified in this Terms of Reference.

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Each phase should be completed within 3 months. An indication of the activities for each phase is outlined below. I. Strategic Planning [3 months]: Output: Strategic decision on the selected coastal protection concept based on priorities of the Government of Indonesia.

The following are essential components of the Strategic Planning Phase: a) Wide participation of the main stakeholders: b) Spatial plan DKI Jakarta 2030: c) Investment plan d) Several options/scenarios: e) Clear political decision on the selected/preferred option: f) Balancing environment and social impacts: II. Road Map Development [3 months]: Output: A Road Map of the selected coastal protection option and the required institutional arrangement.

The coastal defence road map should indicate long-term actions to accomplish the strategic objectives of the selected defence system over a period until 2030. The capacity building road map should include a first assessment of the capacity building needs for the new to be established organisations and/or proposed organisational adjustments to guide the road map and long term action plans.

G.

Scope of Work
Coastal Protection Strategic Plan
Strategic Planning Phase [3 months] Road Map Development Phase [3 months]

Institutional Strategic Plan

Strategic Planning Phase [3 months] Road Map Development Phase [3 months]

H.

Project Organisation Arrangement

An International Team of Professionals will be selected to conduct the study as specified in this Terms of Reference, supported by a National (Indonesian) Team of Counterpart Professionals to complement the International Team, Bappenas and MPW Directorate General for Water Resources will assign a National team as counterpart staff to the International Team. The compositions of the International and National teams should complement each based on the proposed job descriptions and assignments in the project, A supporting team will be formed to provide supporting and logistic support to the team of professionals. The study will be carried out under leadership and coordination of Bappenas, with ownership of other important and relevant government institutions, e.g. provincial governments, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Environment. Related counterpart presentation in a Steering Committee and Supervisory Committee is required. The project office will be provided by Bappenas on its premises.

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I.

Key Personnel

In order to implement the highly specialized activities as specified in a ToR, a team of professionals and specialists will be required. The composition of the specialists team consists of international and Indonesian specialists. The study will be carried out under leadership and coordination of Bappenas with ownership of important relevant government institutions, e.g. Local Government, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Home Affairs).

J.

Deliverables and Implementation Schedule

The following outputs and deliverables are expected from the assignment. Inception Report Midterm Progress Report Final Report: within 6 months from commencement, summarizing the overall findings and results of the assignment, including the final reports for the respective tasks and specifically the Road Map as specified in the Implementation Phases and Scope of Works, for review by Bappenas and the Dutch supervision team.

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