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KeepMeInformed! Home Reports Projects delsold.nas.ed http://dels RelatedTopics[+] AtmosphericComposition&AirPollution old.nas.edu/climatechange/intro.sht Behavioral,Social,&EconomicDimensions ml ClimateVariability&Change Coastal&OceanStudies Ecosystems,Biodiversity,&Biogeochemistry EnergyResources&Use EnvironmentalTechnology&Transportation GlobalCarbonCycle GlobalWaterCycle&WaterResources HumanHealth InternationalActivities LandUse,LandCoverChange,&Agriculture Observations,Modeling,&DataSystems SolidEarthSciences&Resources SustainableDevelopment ClimateChangeBasics[+] UnderstandingClimateChange EcologicalImpacts AboutUs ContactUs Image 2009Jupiterimages Corporation.

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Ecological Impactsof ClimateChange: Introduction

NewPublication EcologicalImpactsof ClimateChange

EcologicalImpac In od c ion anditwillcontinuetochange

throughoutthe21stcenturyand beyond.Risingtemperatures, Theworld'sclimateischanging,anditwillcontinueto newprecipitationpatterns,and changethroughoutthe21stcenturyandbeyond.Rising otherchangesarealready temperatures,newprecipitationpatterns,andotherchanges affectingmanyaspectsofhuman arealreadyaffectingmanyaspectsofhumansocietyandthe societyandthenaturalworld. naturalworld. Climatechangeistransforming Climatechangeistransformingecosystemsonan ecosystemsonanextraordinary scaleatanextraordinarypace.

Theworld'sclimateischanging,

Image 2009JupiterimagesCorporation

delsold.nas.edu

http://delsold.nas.edu/climatechange/whatdoweknow.shtml

WhatDoWeKnow
*Thispagecontainsinformationonthebasicsofclimatechangefromtheeducational booklet,EcologicalImpac ofClima eChange.Formoredetaileddiscussionofthe physicalbasisofclimatechange,pleaseseeUnde andingandRe ponding oClima e Change,anotherpublicationfromtheNationalAcademies. TheEarthIsGettingWarmer

ImagecourtesyoftheJointInstituteforthe StudyoftheAtmosphereandOcean,University ofWashington.Arelativelyrapidincreaseintemperature hasbeendocumentedduringthepastcentury,bothat Earth'ssurfaceandintheoceans.Theaveragesurface temperatureforEarthasawholehasrisensome 1.3 Fahrenheitsince1850,thestartingpointforaglobal networkofthermometers.Ifemissionratesforgreenhousegases(whichtrapheatinside Earth'satmosphere)continueontheircurrenttrack,modelsindicatethattheglobewillbe4.3 to11.5 Fwarmerby2100thanitwasin1990. HumanActivitiesAreContributingtoClimateChange Thephysicalprocessesthatcauseclimatechangearescientificallywelldocumented:both humanactivitiesandnaturalvariabilityarecontributingtoglobalandregionalwarming. AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,whosedocumentsare consideredthemostauthoritativesourceforinformationonthe"stateofthescience"on climatechange,itisverylikelythatmostoftheobservedwarmingoverthepast50yearsis theresultofincreasedgreenhousegasesgeneratedbyhumanactivities.Numerousexpert reportsfromtheNationalResearchCouncilhavesupportedthisconclusionaswell.

Carbondioxidehasincreaseddramaticallysincethe IndustrialRevolution.AdaptedfromClimateChange 2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.WorkingGroup1 Contributiontothe4thAssessmentReportofthe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Figure SPM.5.CambridgeUniversityPress. Thereleaseofgreenhousegaseshasincreased significantlysincetheIndustrialRevolution,mostlyfromthe burningoffossilfuelsforenergy,agriculture,industrial processes,andtransportation.Carbondioxide,amajor greenhousegas,isincreasingintheatmospherefasterthan atanytimemeasuredinthepast,havinggrownbyabout35percentsince1850.Twoother greenhousegases,methaneandnitrousoxide,arepresentintheatmosphereatmuchlower concentrationsthancarbondioxidebuthaveincreasedrapidly.Methanehasincreasedby 150percentinaddition,itis25timesmoreeffectivepermoleculeattrappingheatthan carbondioxide.Nitrousoxide,nearly300timesmoreeffective,hasincreasedbymorethan 20percent. Muchremainstobelearnedaboutthefactorsthatcontrolthesensitivityofclimateto increasesingreenhousegases,ratesofchange,andtheregionaloutcomesoftheglobal changes.Althoughscientificknowledgeofclimateisfarfromcomplete,theuncertainties concernthedetails:thescientificcommunityishighlyconfidentinthebasicconclusions. SeaLevelsAreRising Warmertemperaturesnotonlycauseglaciersandlandicetomelt(addingmorevolumeto oceans)butalsocauseseawatertoexpandinvolumeasitwarms.Theglobalaveragesea levelrosebyjustunder.07inchesperyearduringthe20thcentury,butthatnumberhasrisen to.12inchesperyearsincetheearly1990s.Undera"businessasusual"greenhousegas emissionsscenario,modelsindicatethatsealevelscouldrise2feetormoreby2100 comparedto1990levels. ChangesAreRipplingThroughtheWaterC cle Climatechangehascomplexeffectsonwatersupplyanddemand.Theseasonalrhythmsof streamsandrivershavechangedaswinterprecipitationfallsincreasinglyasraininsteadof snow,andasearlierspringtemperaturescausesnowinthemountainstomeltearlierand faster.Climatechangemaymeanthatsomeplaceswillexperiencemoredayswithvery heavyrainotherplacesmayseemorefrequent,intense,andlonglastingdroughts.Warmer temperaturesalsomeanhigherevaporationratesandthirstierplantsandpeople,increasing demandsforwater.Awarmerworldwillexperiencemoreprecipitationonaglobalscale,but thechangeswillnotbethesameeverywhere.Projectionsindicatethatonaveragedryareas willtendtogetdrier,andwetareaswilltendtogetwetter.

TheOceanIsAcidif ing Muchofthecarbondioxideemittedbyhumanactivityhasalreadybeentakenupbythe ocean,thusmoderatingtheincreaseofcarbondioxideintheatmosphere.However,as carbondioxidedissolvesinseawater,itformscarbonicacid,acidifyingtheocean.Ocean acidificationwilllikelycauseseriousharmtosuchtreasuredmarineorganismsascorals, lobsters,andseaurchins. ClimateChangeIsReflectedinE tremeWeather Itisconsideredverylikelythatincreasingglobaltemperatureswillleadtohighermaximum temperatures,moreheatwaves,andfewercolddaysovermostlandareas.Moresevere droughtinsomeareas,combinedwithotherfactors,hascontributedtolargerandmore frequentwildfires. ThiswebpageisbasedontheNationalAcademies'educationalbooklet EcologicalImpac ofClima eChange.

delsold.nas.edu

http://delsold.nas.edu/climatechange/ecologicalimpactsoverview.shtml

EcologicalImpactsofClimateChange:Overview
Image2009JupiterimagesCorporation. Livingthingsareintimatelyconnectedtotheirphysical surroundings.Evensmallchangesinthetemperatureofthe air,themoistureinthesoil,orthesalinityofthewatercan havesignificanteffects.Eachspeciesisaffectedbysuch changesindividually,butthoseindividualimpactscan quicklyreverberatethroughtheintricateweboflifethat makesupanecosystem. Inparticular,twoimportanttypesofecologicalimpactsofclimatechangehavebeen observedacrosstheUnitedStates:shiftsinspecies'ranges(thelocationsinwhichtheycan surviveandreproduce),andshiftsinphenolog (thetimingofbiologicalactivitiesthattake placeseasonally).Examplesofthesetypesofimpactshavebeenobservedinmany species,inmanyregions,andoverlongperiodsoftime. AsEarthwarms,manyspeciesareshiftingtheirrangestoareaswithmoretolerableclimate conditions,intermsoftemperature,precipitation,andotherfactors.About40percentofwild plantsandanimalsthathavebeenstudiedoverdecadesarerelocatingtostaywithintheir tolerableclimateranges.Someorganisms thosethatcannotmovefastenoughorthose whoserangesareactuallyshrinking arebeingleftwithnoplacetogo.Forexample,as arcticseaiceshrinks,sotooshrinkthehabitatsofanimalsthatcallthisicehome,suchas polarbearsandseals.AsthesehabitatscontracttowardtheNorthandSouthpoles,the animalsthatdependonthemwillreachtheendoftheEarthastheyknowit. Planthardinesszonemaps,used bygardenerstodeterminewhich areasaresuitableforcertain plants.Warmercolorsindicate warmerzones.Anewmapwas createdin2006toreflect changesinclimatesincethe 1990mapwascreated.2006mapcourtesyoftheNationalArborDayFoundation. Climatechangeisalsodrivingchangesinthetimingofseasonalbiologicalactivities.Many biologicalevents,especiallythoseinthespringandfall,arebasedonseasonalcues. Studieshavefoundthattheseasonalbehaviorsofmanyspeciesnowhappen15 20days earlierthanseveraldecadesago.Migrantbirdsarearrivingearlier,butterfliesareemerging sooner,andplantsarebuddingandbloomingearlier.

Ifallofthespeciesinanecosystemshiftedtheirseasonalbehaviorinexactlythesameway, theseshiftsmightnotcreateproblems.Butwhenaspeciesdependsuponanotherfor survivalandonlyonechangesitstiming,theseshiftscandisruptimportantecological interactions,suchasthatbetweenpredatorsandtheirprey.Forexample,asmallblackand whitebirdcalledtheEuropeanpiedflycatcherhasnotchangedthetimeitarrivesonits breedinggroundseventhoughthecaterpillarsitfeedsitsyoungareemergingearlier. Missingthepeakoffoodavailabilitymeansfewerchicksaresurviving,inturncausingthe flycatcher'spopulationtodecline. Inadditiontoshiftingrangesandseasonalbehaviors,otherecologicalimpactsofclimate Change someofwhichwillappearintheexamplesdescribedinthisbooklet include changesingrowthrates,intherelativeabundanceofspecies,inprocesseslikewaterand nutrientcycling,andintheriskofdisturbancefromfire,insects,andinvasivespecies. WinnersandLosers? Theecologicalimpactsofclimatechangearenotinherently"bad"or"good."Theconcept thatachangeisbeneficialordetrimentalhasmeaningmainlyfromthehumanperspective. Foranecosystem,responsestoclimatechangearesimplyshiftsawayfromthesystem's priorstate. OtherHumanActivitiesCompoundtheEffectsofClimateChange Plantsandanimalsaresimultaneouslycopingwithclimatechangeandmanyotherhuman createdstresses.Rivers manyofwhicharepollutedbyfertilizersorotherchemicals are dammedtoprovidewaterforcropsorforpeople.Roads,cities,andfarmsbreakuphabitats andmigrationroutes,andhumanactivitiescarrynonnativespeciesintonewecosystems. Manyofthespeciesandecosystemsdescribedinthisbookletarebeingaffectedbythese otherhumaninfluencesinadditiontothoserelatedtoclimatechange. Ecosystemsaregenerallyresilienttosomechanges.Forexample,theycanoftencopewith adroughtoranunusuallyhotsummerinwaysthataltersomeaspectsoftheecosystembut donotcauseittochangeinafundamentalway.Whensuchchangesremainwithinthelimits ofanecosystem'sresilience,theecosystemmaynotappeartobeaffected.Thereisoftena thresholdpoint,however,thatresultsindramatictransformations.Suchthresholdpointsare likethemomentwhenwaterovertopsalevee.Aslongasthewaterlevelisevenslightly belowthetop,functioningisnormal.Butonceitrisesabovethelevee,thereisaflood permanentlytransitioningtheecosystemintoanewstate.Themanywayshumanshave alteredtheplanetcouldactascompoundingfactorsthatmakeitharder,orevenimpossible, foralreadystressedspeciestoadjusttoclimatechange. Biodiversit andthePermanenceofE tinction

Artist'sdepictionofthemastodon,drivento extinctionbyhumanhuntingcompoundedbya reductioninhabitatduetoclimatechange.Ecological processes eventhosethatseemtorepresenttheactivities ofasinglespecies dependoninteractionsamongan interconnectedwebofvitalanduniquespecies.Honey,for example,isproducedinabeehive,butthebeesdependon pollenandnectarfromtheplantstheypollinate.These plants,inturn,dependonthebeesthatpollinatethem,thewormsthataeratethesoil,the microbesthatreleasenutrients,andmanyotherorganisms.Thisdiversearrayofcreaturesis keytothefunctioningoftheentiresystem. Amongallthepossibleimpactsofclimatechangeonecosystems,themostpermanentis extinction.Onceaspeciesislost,itcannotberecovered.Andsincenospecieslivesin isolation,itsentireecosystemcanbeaffected.Thenumberofextinctionscausedbyclimate changesofarmaybesmall,butifalevelofwarmingoccursintherangeof3.6to5.4F somewhereinthelowtomidprojectedrange itisestimatedthatabout20to30percentof studiedspeciescouldriskextinctioninthenextonehundredyears.Giventhatthereare approximately1.7millionidentifiedspeciesontheglobe,thisratiowouldsuggestthatsome 300,000to600,000speciescouldbecommittedtoextinction primarilyasaresultof humanactivities. ThiswebpageisbasedontheNationalAcademies'educationalbooklet EcologicalImpactsofClimateChange.

delsold.nas.edu

http://delsold.nas.edu/climatechange/future.shtml

WhatDoestheFutureHold?
PredictingtheFuture:LessonsfromtheDistantPast

AscientistintheUSGeologicalSurveyNational IceCoreLab.Icecores,whicharesamplestaken frompolaricecapsandmountainglaciers,provide cluesaboutchangesinEarth'sclimateand atmospheregoingbackthousandsofyears.Ourabilityto predictfutureecologicalimpactsofclimatechangestems largelyfromwhatweknowaboutthepast.Rocks,icecores, caveformations,treerings,sediments,andothernatural "climaterecorders"haveofferedcluesabouthow ecosystemsrespondtomajorclimateshifts. Earthhasexperiencedaseriesoficeagesoverthepastmillionyears.Around21,000years ago duringthepeakofthelasticeage mostofCanadaandthenorthernUnitedStates wasunderthousandsoffeetofice.ArcticvegetationthrivedinKentucky,andsealevelswere about400feetlowerthantoday.ThaticeageendedassubtlechangesintheEarth'sorbit slowlywarmedtheglobe.Thisandotherperiodsofcoolingandwarmingcausedwidespread ecologicalchanges:Someecosystemsshiftedtolocationswithmorefavorableconditions, othersvanished,andnewtypesofecosystemsemerged. Climatechangeinthecomingdecadescouldbemuchmorerapidonasustained,global basisthanthetransitionsintoandoutofmanypasticeages.Inpasticeages,ecosystems werepushedofflargeswathsofEarth'ssurfaceasicedominatedlandscapesadvanced,but whenthechangewasslowenough overmanythousandsofyears similarecosystems reassembledagainastheiceretreated.Therehavealsobeenabruptchangesinthepast, buttherateofchangeinthecurrenteraisexpectedtobebothglobalandrapid.Ecosystems canbeparticularlyvulnerablewhenmajorclimatechangeshappenoverarelativelyshorter periodoftime. Oneofthemajorconcernsaboutthefutureisthatclimatechangesmayhappentoofastto allowmanyorganismstorespond.Someindividualsandspeciescanadaptormovefaster orfartherthanothers.Forexample,alonglivedtreespeciesmaytakedecadestoshifttoa newrange,whileaninsectspeciescouldshiftitsrangemuchmorequickly.Understanding howquicklyspeciesandecosystemscanadjustisoneofthekeychallengesinclimate changeresearch. DealingWithUncertaint

Althoughwecangleancluesaboutthelikelyimpactsoffutureclimatechangefromrecent observationsandresearchintoEarth'spast,thepictureisstillincompleteandour predictionsareuncertain.Futureclimatechangewilllikelybefundamentallydifferentfrom changesEarthexperiencedinthepastbecauseofthehightemperaturesthatareprojected, therateofclimatechange,andthefactthatclimatechangeisoccurringinasettingwhere humanactionshavealreadyalterednaturalecosystemsinmanyotherways. Despiteuncertaintiesaboutwhatthefutureholds,decisionscanbemadenow.Strategies formanagingecosystemsinthefuturewillneedtopayspecialattentiontotheissueof uncertainty.Itwillbeimportanttomakedecisionsbasedonthebestcurrentlyavailable information,andimplementtheminawaythatpreservestheabilitytomakeadjustmentsin thefutureasmoreinformationbecomesavailable. HumanCauses,HumanSolutions

Image2009Jupiterimages Corporation.Climatechangeisoneofthedefiningissuesofthe21st century.Decisionsaboutclimatechangeoverthecomingdecades willlikelyreverberatethroughcenturies:itisgenerallyagreedthata changeinsuchfactorsascarbondioxideemissionrateswould changetheprojectedoutcomes. Humansarechallengedtofindasetofpolicies,practices,and standardsofbehaviorthatprovidelongtermeconomicopportunities andimprovedqualityoflifearoundtheworldwhilemaintaininga sustainableclimateandviableecosystems.RecentanalysesbyU.S. andinternationalexpertsconcludethattheworldshouldinvestin minimizingtheamountofclimatechangethatoccursandinadaptingtothechangesthat cannotbeavoided.Theappropriatelevel,financing,andstructureoftheseinvestmentsare questionstobediscussedamongallmembersofsociety. Image2009JupiterimagesCorporation.Someofthe issuesaresobigthattheinvolvementofgovernmentswill berequired.Theseincludedecisionsaboutthebestwaysto reduceacountry'scarbonemissionsandwheretoinvest fundsinresearchonalternativeenergysources.Other decisionsarebestaddressedattheindividual,family,or businesslevel.Eachtimeacar,homeappliance,or lightbulbispurchased,adecisionismadethathasasmall influenceonclimatechange.Butmanysmalldecisions,madebybillionsofpeople,can combinetohaveverylargeeffects. Weknowthatclimatechangeisnottheonlystressecosystemsarefacing.Animportantway forsocietytohelpreducetheecologicalimpactsofclimatechangeisbycreatingconditions

thatmakeiteasierforspeciesinecosystemstoadapt thatis,byreducingother humaninfluencedecosystemstresses.Wellthoughtoutapproachestoandinvestmentin conservation,sustainableagriculturalpractices,pollutionreduction,andwatermanagement canallhelpecosystemswithstandtheimpactsofachangingclimate. Theclimatechallengeislargeandcomplex.Itisunlikelythatthischallengecanbesolvedby usinganysinglestrategyorbythepeopleofanysinglecountry.Butitisverylikelythatthe dedicatedeffortsofmanypeople,workinghardfromdifferentanglesandthroughdiverse strategies,canhelpaddressthisimportantchallengeanditsecologicalconsequences. ThiswebpageisbasedontheNationalAcademies'educationalbooklet EcologicalImpac ofClima eChange.

delsold.nas.ed

http://delsold.nas.edu/climatechange/figures.shtml

EcologicalImpactsofClimateChange:Figures
Cop rightNotice:Allimagesusedwithpermission.SomeofthefiguresusedonthisWeb siteareinthepublicdomain(producedaspartoftheworkoftheU.S.Government)andmay beusedfreelywithappropriateattribution.Othersarecopyrightedandpermissionmustbe obtainedfromtheiroriginatorbeforereproducing.Clickimagestoenlarge.

Theaveragechangeintemperatureperdecadefrom 1950to2005,indegreesCelsius.(Ifthescalewerein F,itwouldgofrom.72to.72.)Imagecourtesyofthe JointInstitutefortheStudyoftheAtmosphereand Ocean,UniversityofWashington.

Carbondioxidehasincreaseddramaticallysincethe IndustrialRevolution.AdaptedfromClimateChange 2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.WorkingGroup1 Contributiontothe4thAssessmentReportofthe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Figure SPM.5.CambridgeUniversityPress.

Planthardinesszonemaps, usedbygardenersto determinewhichareasare suitableforcertainplants. Warmercolorsindicate warmerzones.Anewmap wascreatedin2006toreflect changesinclimatesincethe1990mapwascreated.2006mapcourtesyoftheNational ArborDayFoundation.

Artist'sdepictionofthemastodon,driventoextinctionby humanhuntingcompoundedbyareductioninhabitatdue toclimatechange.(Publicdomainimage)

QuinoCheckerspot.ImagecourtesyofDr.GordonPratt, www.quinocheckerspot.com.

Scientistsretrieveawatersampleforresearchonthedead zone.ImagecourtesyofOregonStateUniversity.

Climatechangeisaffectingcaribou(wildreindeer). ImagecourtesyofDeanBriggins,U.S.FishandWildlife Service.

Thismapshowstheaveragearcticseaiceareafor September2007(inwhite)andtheaveragefrom1979to 2000(pinkoutline).ImagecourtesyoftheNationalSnowand IceDataCenter.

TheArcticiswarmingabouttwiceasfastastherestof theplanetasshownbythelargeareaofdarkred.Image createdwithdatafromtheGoddardInstituteforSpace Studies.

AwildfiresweepsthroughBitterrootNationalForestin Montana.ImagecourtesyofJohnMcColgan,USDA ForestService.

ImagecourtesyofJ.R.Douglass,YellowstoneNationalPark.

Invasivegrassesaremakingdesertlandscapesmore pronetofire.ImagecourtesyofT.Esque,USGS.

PhotostakenfromthesamevantagepointnearLos Alamos,NewMexico,in2002(left)andin2004(right). ImagescourtesyofD.Allen,USGS.

Theseshallow,temporarylakesscatteredthroughout theMidwestprovidecriticalplacesformigratingbirds torest,feed,andmate.ImagecourtesyoftheU.S.Fish andWildlifeService.

Reconstructedsatelliteimagesshowthe Evergladesofthe1850s(left)andpresentday (right).Theyellowlinesarethehistoricaland currentborderoftheEvergladesecosystem. ImagecourtesyoftheSouthFloridaWater ManagementDistrict.

Apartiallybleachedcoral.ImagefromNOAA.

RufousHummingbird.ImagecourtesyofDeanE. Briggins,U.S.FishandWildlifeService.

AscientistintheUSGeologicalSurveyNationalIceCore Lab.Icecores,whicharesamplestakenfrompolarice capsandmountainglaciers,providecluesabout changesinEarth'sclimateandatmospheregoingback thousandsofyears.