Lecture Slides

Introduction to Statistics for engineers

Lecturer: Dr. Long, HV

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Chapter 1
Introduction to Statistics
1-1 Review and Preview 1-2 Statistical Thinking 1-3 Collecting Sample Data

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Section 1-1 Review and Preview

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Preview
+ Polls, studies, surveys and other data collecting tools collect data from a small part of a larger group so that we can learn something about the larger group. + Common and important goal of statistics: Learn about a large group by examining data from some of its members.

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Preview
In this context, the terms sample and population have special meaning. Formal definitions for these and other basic terms will be given here. In this section we will look at some of the ways to describe data.

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Data

Data
collections of observations (such as measurements, genders, survey responses)

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Statistics
Statistics
is the science of planning studies and experiments, obtaining data, and then organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing conclusions based on the data

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Population
Population
the complete collection of all individuals (scores, people, measurements, and so on) to be studied; the collection is complete in the sense that it includes all of the individuals to be studied

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Census versus Sample

Census
Collection of data from every member of a population

Sample
Subset of members selected from a population

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Section 1-2 Statistical Thinking

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Key Concept
This section introduces basic principles of statistical thinking used throughout this book. Whether conducting statistical analysis of data that we have collected, or analyzing a statistical analysis done by someone else, we should not rely on blind acceptance of mathematical calculation. We should consider these factors:
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Key Concept (continued)

Context of the data Source of the data Sampling method Conclusions Practical implications

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Context
What do the values represent? Where did the data come from? Why were they collected? An understanding of the context will directly affect the statistical procedure used.

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Source of data
Is the source objective? Is the source biased? Is there some incentive to distort or spin results to support some selfserving position? Is there something to gain or lose by distorting results? Be vigilant and skeptical of studies from sources that may be biased.
Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Sampling Method
Does the method chosen greatly influence the validity of the conclusion? Voluntary response (or self-selected) samples often have bias (those with special interest are more likely to participate). These samples results are not necessarily valid. Other methods are more likely to produce good results.
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Conclusions
Make statements that are clear to those without an understanding of statistics and its terminology Avoid making statements not justified by the statistical analysis.

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Section 1-3 Collecting Sample Data

Copyright 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Basics of Collecting Data

Statistical methods are driven by the data that we collect. We typically obtain data from two distinct sources: observational studies and experiment.

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Observational Study
Observational study
observing and measuring specific characteristics without attempting to modify the subjects being studied

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Experiment
Experiment
apply some treatment and then observe its effects on the subjects; (subjects in experiments are called experimental units)

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Is the study experimental or observational?

A marketing firm does a survey to find out how many people use a product. Of the one hundred people contacted, fifteen said they use the product. A doctor performs several diagnostic tests to determine the reason for a patient's illness. A clinic gives a drug to a group of ten patients and a placebo to another group of ten patients to find out if the drug has an effect on the patients' illness. A sample of fish is taken from a lake to measure the effect of pollution from a nearby factory on the fish. A political pollster reports that his candidate has a 10% lead in the polls with 10% undecided.
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+) A quality control specialist compares the output from a machine with a new lubricant to the output of machines with the old lubricant. +) A stock analyst selects a stock from a group of twenty for investment by choosing the stock with the greatest earnings per share reported for the last quarter. +) A stock analyst compares the relationship between stock prices and earnings per share to help him select a stock for investment. +) A T.V. show's executives raised the fee for commercials following a report that the show received a "No. 1" rating in a survey of viewers +) A T.V. show's executives commissioned a study to gauge the impact of the show's ratings on the sales of its advertisers

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Simple Random Sample

Simple Random Sample
of n subjects selected in such a way that every possible sample of the same size n has the same chance of being chosen

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Random & Probability Samples

Random Sample
members from the population are selected in such a way that each individual member in the population has an equal chance of being selected

Probability Sample
selecting members from a population in such a way that each member of the population has a known (but not necessarily the same) chance of being selected
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Random Sampling
selection so that each individual member has an equal chance of being selected

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Systematic Sampling
Select some starting point and then select every kth element in the population

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Convenience Sampling
use results that are easy to get

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Stratified Sampling
subdivide the population into at least two different subgroups that share the same characteristics, then draw a sample from each subgroup (or stratum)

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Cluster Sampling
divide the population area into sections (or clusters); randomly select some of those clusters; choose all members from selected clusters

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Errors
No matter how well you plan and execute the sample collection process, there is likely to be some error in the results.
Sampling error the difference between a sample result and the true population result; such an error results from chance sample fluctuations Nonsampling error sample data incorrectly collected, recorded, or analyzed (such as by selecting a biased sample, using a defective instrument, or copying the data incorrectly) 1.1 - 30