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Cameroons incumbent President, Paul Biya, won a resounding victory in the countrys Presidential election held on 9 October 2011. Biyas 77.9%(2) of the vote confirmed most analysts predictions that a divided opposition would not defeat the aging President. Prior to the release of the results, opposition parties, foremost among them the Social Democratic Front (SDF), had asked the countrys Supreme Court to annul the vote citing numerous incidents of electoral fraud. This petition was handed to the court despite international election observers expressing general satisfaction with the poll. Voter apathy was a serious concern in the poll with only a fraction of the registered voters turning out to cast their ballot. This has been ascribed to the feeling of many Cameroonians that the country is simply going through the motions, with the election outcome already decided.(3) This paper reflects on the conduct of the October 2011 Presidential election in Cameroon as well as the next seven years of Paul Biyas rule.
In the footsteps of his predecessor: The making of Paul Biyas managed democracy in Cameroon
Paul Biya, then Prime Minister of Cameroon, ascended to the countrys top office when long serving President, Ahmadou Ahidjo, stepped down owing to poor health.(4) Biya was an unlikely candidate for the position of Prime Minister at the time, as he is a native of the predominantly Christian South, which is believed to have suffered from Ahidjos pro-Muslim approach to appointments to government positions. Although Ahidjos reason for choosing Biya remains unclear, a rift developed between the two men and Ahidjo was exiled to France. Upon assuming office, Biya set about replacing his predecessors northern Muslim choices with their southern Christian counterparts. One such move met with severe consequences in 1984, as the replacement of Muslim Palace Guards led to an abortive coup against Biya. The coup was widely considered as being orchestrated by Ahidjo. Like his predecessor, Biyas rule became more and more authoritarian under the guise of multiparty democracy. Multiparty elections were introduced in 1992, but opposition groups boycotted the 1997 elections, citing irregularities in the electoral process. Biyas win in the 2004 Presidential elections also lacked credibility in key areas, according to observers.(5) Having been in power for almost three decades, Biya has not seen it fit to relinquish his grip on the Government. Indeed the state bureaucracy has seemingly fused with the Government leading to institutionalised corruption. In 2008, Paul Biya used the overwhelming majority his party enjoys in Parliament to abolish the two-term limit that the Constitution placed on the Presidency.(6) This is seen by many as an attempt to retain a permanent position in power.(7)
which lacks credibility in many respects. Opposition parties mistrust of ELECAM seemed to be warranted when a high ranking member of the organisation was fired from his post a few days before the Presidential election for campaigning for Biya.(11) Despite some hitches, election campaigning was peaceful, with Biyas Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement (CPDM) investing in large scale public appearances and banners across the country.(12) Opposition parties, foremost among them the SDF, also embarked on countrywide election tours in the hope that their personal connection with the voting public would prove to make a difference in the poll.
members represented in the National Assembly.(28) Furthermore, SDF chairman, John Fru Ndi, has remained unchallenged, openly sidelining or firing possible challengers.(29) The same can be said about Ndam Njoya, leader of the second largest opposition party, the Cameroon Democratic Union, as well as Bello Bouba Maigari of the National Union for Democracy and Progress. It is this weakness in the opposition that has been blamed for voter apathy in recent years as voters feel elections will inevitably be won by Biya and his CPDM party.
Concluding remarks
Paul Biyas overwhelming victory in the October 2011 poll only proves that opposition strategies are not effective. Few doubted the general election outcome, although a better showing by opposition groups was expected, with Biyas government coming under increasing pressure to deliver economically. However, an effective campaign by Biya and his CPDM party and a fractured opposition seemingly paved the way for a landslide victory. Biya has been successful in achieving another seven years in power but his next tenure will be more difficult - especially as Cameroons economy continues to suffer. Biyas age also counts against him and his grip on power is further complicated by a new radical element within his party. Cameroon is scheduled to organise legislative and municipal polls in 2012, which should give opposition parties another chance to organise themselves and take advantage of the cracks that are becoming evident in Paul Biyas 29 year strong dictatorship.
NOTES: (1) Contact Emil Bischoff through Consultancy Africa Intelligences Election Reflection Unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com ). (2) Longtime Cameroonian leader wins reelection, Xinhuanet, 21 October 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com. (3) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (4) US State Department, Cameroon, 22 April 2011, http://www.state.gov. (5) Cameroon: Country Profile, BBC News, 19 April 2011, http://news.bbc.co.uk. (6) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: Why participation in the 2011 Presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (7) Ibid. (8) Divine Ntaryike, Cameroons leading opposition party backtracks on election boycott threat, Voice of America News, 12 August 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (9) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (10) Ibid. (11) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (12) Anne Look, Campaign underway for Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 28 September 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (13) Turnout low in Cameroon Presidential poll, Voice of America, 9 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (14) Ibid. (15) Cameroon policemen on poll duty killed, Aljazeera, 10 October 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net . (16) Cameroon opposition to ask court to annul vote, Reuters, 12 October 2011, http://af.reuters.com. (17) Peter Clottery, Cameroon opposition demands annulment of poll, Voice of America, 18 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (18) Ibid. (19) Cameroon ruling party slams opposition, News24, 18 October 2011, http://www.news24.com (20) Cameroon court rejects request to annul Presidential poll over fraud claims, The Associated Press, 20 October, http://www.washingtonpost.com. (21) Ibid. (22) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (23) Xavier Bourgois, Cameroon opposition wants vote nullified, AFP, 11October 2011, http://www.google.com. (24) Scott Stearns, Cameroons Presidential vote tally challenged, Voice of America, 12 October 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (25) Bisong Etahoben, Parties renew calls for Cameroon to postpone elections, Daily Nation, 3 August 2011, http://www.nation.co.ke. (26) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (27) Xavier Bourgois, Cameroon opposition wants vote nullified, AFP, 11 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (28) Divine Ntaryike, Cameroons leading opposition party backtracks on election boycott threat, Voice of America News, 12 August 2011, http://www.voanews.com. (29) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: Why participation in the 2011 Presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (30) Longtime Cameroonian leader wins reelection, Xinhuanet, 21 October 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com. (31) Faith Karimi, Cameroonians plan anti-government protests, CNN, 23 February 2011, http://edition.cnn.com. (32) Anti-government rioting spreads in Cameroon, The New York Times, 7 December 2008, http://www.nytimes.com. (33) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011, http://www.google.com. (34) Cameroon opposition to ask court to annul vote, Reuters, 12 October 2011, http://af.reuters.com. (35) Aloysius Agendia, Cameroon: why participation in the 2011 presidential election may be poor, Participating in Positive Change, 24 July 2010, http://agendia.jigsy.com. (36) Rennier Kaze, Cameroons Biya re-elected president for sixth term: court, AFP, 21 October 2011,
http://www.google.com.