COMBINATORICS Lecture: Probability Theory Defn: Suppose that an event E can happen in h ways out of a total n possible equally

likely ways. Then the probability of success or the occurrence of events is P = Pr{E} = h / n Also, the probability of non-occurrence of the event {failure} is denoted by q = Pr {not E} = 1-Pr {E} If Pr{E} and Pr {not E} = 1 then q = 1-p

Example: Let E be the event that a no. 3 and 4 turns up in a single toss of a die. There are six ways which a die can fall, 1, 2,3,4,5, & 6 of if the die is fair, we can assume that six ways to be equally likely). So, p = Pr {E}= 2/6 =1/3 and q = 1-1/3=2/3 Remark: 1. 2. 3. 4. Probability of an event is the no. between 0 and 1. If the event cannot occur, p=0. If the occurrence of the event is certain, p=1. If p is the probability that an event will occur, the odd favor of its occurrence are p:q (p to q), The odd against its occurrence is q:p (q to p). 5. The empirical probability is actually the relative frequency of the occurrence of the event is large. The probability itself is the limit of the relative frequency as the no. of occurrence increases indefinitely. 2. Dependent

Conditional Probability: 1. Independent

If E1, E2En are independent Then... Pr {E1 E2 E3En} = Pr {E1} Pr {E2}Pr {En} = P 1 P2, . . P n Ex1. Let E1 & E2 be the events head on fifth toss and heads on the sixth toss of a coin, respectively, then E1 & E2 are independent events. Pr {E1E2} = Pr {E1} Pr {E2} = (1/2) (1/2) = (1/4)

Ex2. If the probability that A will be alive 10 yrs. is 0.8 and probability of B will be alive in 10 yrs. is 0.4, then the probability that they will both be alive in 10 yrs. is (0.8) (0.4) = (0.32)

2. Dependent Events: If E1 E2 are dependent then, Pr {E1E2} = Pr {E1} P {E2 | E1} or = Pr {E2} P {E1 | E2} Ex. Suppose that a box contains 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. Let E1, be the event first ball drawn is red, and E2 be the event second ball drawn is red, where the balls are not replaced after being draws. Hew E1 & E2 are dependent events: Pr {E1} = 2/ (3+2) = 2/5 , this is the probability of the first ball drawn is red. Pr {E2/E3} = 1/ (3+1) =1/4 , the probability that the second ball drawn was red, given the first ball drawn was red. Therefore, the Probability that both balls drawn are red is Pr (E1 E2) = Pr (E1) Pr (E2/E1) =2/5.1/4 =2/20 =1/10

Mutually Exclusive Events: Defn: Two or more events are called mutually exclusive if the occurrence of any one of them excludes the occurrence of the others. Thus if E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events, then Pr { E1 , E2 } = 0. If E1 and E2 denotes the event that either, E1 or E2 or both occur, then Pr ( E1+ E2 ) = Pr ( E1 ) + Pr (E2 ) Pr ( E1 E2 ) Ex1: If E1 is the event drawing an ace from a deck of cards and E2 is the event drawing a queen then Pr {E1} = 4/52 = 1/13 and Pr {E2} = 4/52 = 1/13. The Probability of drawing either an ace or a king in a single draw is

Pr {E1+E2} = Pr {E1} + Pr {E2} = 1/13 + 1/13 = 2/13 Ex.2: If E, is the event drawing an ace from a deck of cards and E2 is the event drawing a spade then E1 & E2 are not mutually exclusive since the ace of spades can be drawn. This the probability of drawing either an ace or a spades or both in. Pr {E1 + E2} = Pr{E1} + Pr{E2} Pr {E1E2} = 4/52 + 13/12 1/52 = 4/13 Combinatorial Analysis 1.) Fundamental Principle: Of an event can occur in any one of n1 ways, and if when this has occurred another event can happen in any one of n2 ways, then the no. of ways w/c both events can happen in the specified order is n1,n2. Ex. If there are 3 candidates for governor and 5 mayors, the two office can be filled in 3.5 = 15 ways. 2.) Factorial n! n! = n (n1) (n2). . . 1 Ex: 5! = 5.4 .3.2.1 = 120 4! 3! = ( 4.3 .2.1 ) ( 3.2.1 ) = 144 0! = 1

3.) Permutations A permutations of n different objects taken r at a time is an arrangement of r out of the n objects, with attention given to the order of arrangement. The number of permutation of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by, nPr , P(n,r) or Pn,r and is given by Pr = n(n1) (n2). . . (n r + 1) = n! / (n r)! . . .

In particular, the no. of permutations of n objects taken n a time is

n n

P = n(n-1) (n-2) . . . 1=n!

Example, The no. of permutations of the letters a,b,& c taken 2 at a time is, 3P2 = 3.2 = 6. ab , ba , ac , ca , bc , cb The no. of permutations of n objects consisting of groups of which n1 are alike , n2 are alike, . . .is n! n1! N2! where n = n1 +n 2 +n3 + . . .

Example: the number of permutations of letters in the word statistic is 10! 3! 3! 1! 2! 1! = 50, 400

Since there are 3 ss, 3 ts, 2 is and 1 c.

COMBINATIONS: A combinations of n different object taken r a time is a selection of r out of the n objects, with no attention given to the order of arrangement. The no. of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by the symbol ( nr ) and is given by : ( n ) = n ( n 1 ). . . ( n r + 1 ). = n___ (r) r! r! ( nr )!

Example: the number of combinations of the letters, a, b, and c taken two at a time is (3)= 3 =3 ( 2 ) 2 ! ( 1! )

These are ab,ac,bc, Note that ab is the same or ba , but not the same in permutation.

Stirlings Approximation to n! When n is large, a direct evaluation of n! is impractical. In such case, use in made of an approximate formula developed by James Stirling : _________ n! 2 n nn e-n where e = 2.71828 . . .is the natural base of logarithms. Example : Evaluate 50! __________ For large n1 will have n! 2 n nn e-n thus _______________ 50! 2(50) 5050 e-50 = 5 To evaluate S, use the logarithms to the base 10. Thus, Log S = log =1/2 log 100 + 1/2 log 3.142. + 50 log 50 50 log 2.718 =1/2 ( 2 ) + 1/2 (0.4972 ) + 50 (1.6990) 50 (0.4343) = 64,4846 From which S = 3.05 x 10 64 , a no. that 65 digits

Solved Problems : Fundamental Rules of Probability p , an estimate of it , for . 1.) Determine the probability. Each of the following events: a.) An odd number appears in a single toss of a fair die. b.) At least one head appears in two tosses of a fair coin c.) An ace , 10 of diamonds , or 2 of spades appears in drawing a single sand from a well shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards. d.) The sum 7 appears in a single toss of a pair of fair dice. e.) A tail appears in the next toss of a coin if out of 100 tosses 56 were heads. Answers : a.) Out of six possible equally likely cases , three cases ( where the die comes up 1 , 3 , or 5 ) are favorable to the event . Thus p = 3/6 = 1/2 b.) If H denotes head and T denotes tail , the two tosses can lead to four cases : HH, HT, TH, and TT , all equally likely . Only the first three cases are favorable to the event. Thus p = 3/4 c.) The event can occur in six ways ( ace of spades , ace of hearts , ace of chubs ace of diamonds , 10 of diamonds and 2 of spades ) out of 52 equally likely cases, Thus p = 6/52 = 3/26 d, ) Each of the six aces of one die can be associated with each of the six faces of the other die , so that the total number of cases that can rise ,

all equally likely , is 6.6 = 36. These can be denoted by (1,1) , (2,1) , (3,1 ) . . .( 6 , 6 ). There are six ways of obtaining the sum 7, denoted by (1,6) (2,5) , (3,4) , (4,3) , (5,2) and (6,1). Thus the p =6/36= 1/6. e.) Since 100 56 = 44 tails were obtained in 100 tosses the estimated probability of a tail is the relative frequency 44/100 = 0.44

2.) A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls, and 5 blue balls. Determine the probability that the ball drawn is a,) red b.) white c.) blue d,) not red and e,) red or white Solution: Let R, W and B denote the events of drawing a red ball, white ball and blue ball respectively , Then : ____ qn -qp nr

r= q mod p

a.) Pr {R} = ways of choosing a red ball total ways of choosing a ball b.) Pr {W} = 4 = 4 6+4+5 15 c.) Pr {B} = 5 6+4+5 =5=1 15 3

= 6 = 6=2 6+4+5 15 5

_ d.) Pr {R} = 1 Pr {R} = 1 2/5 = 3/5 by answer a e.) Pr {R + W} = ways of choosing a red or white ball total ways of choosing a ball =6+4 = 10 = 2 6 + 4 +5 15 3

3.) Three balls are drawn successively from the box of Prob. 2 . Find the probability that they are drawn in the order red, white and blue if each ball is, a. ) replaced and b. ) not replaced

Solution: Let R = event redon the first draw , W = event white. . .2nd draw , B = event blue . . .3rd draw We require Pr {RWB} a. ) If each ball is replaced , then R,W,B are independent events and P {RWB} = Pr {R} Pr {W} Pr {B} = Pr { R } Pr { W } Pr { B } = ( 6 ) (6+4+5) ( 4 ) + (5) = (6) ( 4 ) ( 5 )= 8 (6+4+5) (6+4+5) 15 15 15 225

b. ) If each ball is not replaced , then R,W,B are dependent events Pr ( RWB ) = Pr { R } Pr { W / R } Pr { B / WR }

= (6) (6+4+5)

(4) (5+4+5)

(5) =(6)(4)(5)=4 (5+3+5) 15 15 15 91

Where Pr { B / WR } is the conditional probability of getting a blue ball if a white and red ball have already been chosen.

4. ) Find the probability of boys and girls with three children ,assuming equal probalities of boys and girls. Solution : Let B = event boy in the family Let G = event girl in the family Therefore, According to assumption based on probabilities, Pr ( B ) = Pr { 6 } = 1/2 a. Three boys ( BBB ) = Pr { BBB } = Pr { B } Pr ( B } Pr { B } = 1/8 Here : assumption is independent. b. Three Girls ( GGG ) = Pr { GGG } = 1/8 c. Two Boys and 1 Girl ( BBG + BGB + GBB )