sumption dominates the global demand for rice will increase on reducing large (commonly in excess of 60%) losses
) losses of ni-
demand by about 25%; lower intakes because of aging and the
physically less active population would reduce it by about 5%,
and improvements in average diets needed to eliminate the
existing undernutrition would boost it by about the same
amount. The single largest factor determining the eventual
outcome will be the extent and rapidity of dietary change and
even very conservative assumptions point to a decline on the
order of 20%.
This would leave us with the need to produce only about
5% more rice than we do now, or, bracketing the estimate by a
factor of two, the range would be from no net increase at all to
as much as a 10% higher output. Postharvest losses in the ten
most populous rice-eating countries are on the order of 15%
(Smil 2000) and cutting them in half during the next genera-
tion would only reinforce the conclusion that there may be no
need for any net increase in rice production, or that the needed
increase could be only a marginal addition of a few percent
above the current level.
Even in the unlikely case that these estimates err on the
low side by as much as 100%, it is obvious that, during the
first quarter of the 21st century, we will need increases in glo-
bal rice production that will not be even remotely comparable
to those of the past 25 years. Consequently, our research and
development should concentrate primarily on the maintenance
of existing yields, on improved nutritional quality, and on low-
ering the environmental effects of rice cultivation, particularly
Development of sustainable agriculture
from rice, water, and the living environment
Riota Nakamura
The Green Revolution based on the development
of irrigated agriculture
Wisdom developed from soil and water has continuously been
the fundamental element of all human activities since ancient
civilization. The tragedies and ruins of the Mesopotamian/
Sumerian civilization remind us of the significance of build-
ing sustainable agriculture and society. The drama of the col-
lapse of Mesopotamia started with a gradual rising of the sa-
line groundwater level. The collapse advanced rapidly when
this level exceeded a threshold. It is well known that this prob-
lem was caused by faulty irrigation. Can we be confident that
the current threshold is high enough when we look at the glo-
bal expansion of commercialized agriculture and hazardously
exploited water resources, such as in the Aral Sea basin, the
Ogallala aquifer (Nebraska) and Central Valley (California) in
the United States, Punjab and Haryana in India, and Northern
China?
A stable water supply was a strong driving force behind
the Green Revolution. Irrigated agriculture provides an essen-
trogen from applied urea (Cassman et al 2002).
References
Caballero B, Popkin BM, editors. 2002. The nutrition transition:
diet and disease in the developing world. Amsterdam (Neth-
erlands): Elsevier. 261 p.
Cassman KG et al. 2002. Agroecosystems, nitrogen-use efficiency,
and nitrogen management. Ambio 31:132-140.
Chern Wen S et al. 2003. Analysis of the food consumption of Japa-
nese households. Rome (Italy): Food and Agriculture Organi-
zation of the United Nations. 88 p.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
1996. The sixth world food survey. Rome (Italy): FAO. 153
p.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
2002. The state of food insecurity in the world 2002. Rome
(Italy): FAO. 36 p.
Smil V. 2000. Feeding the world. Cambridge, Mass. (USA): The
MIT Press. 360 p.
UN (United Nations). 2002. World population prospects: the 2002
revision. New York (USA): UN. http://esa.un.org/unpp.
Notes
Author’s address: Faculty of Environment, University of Manitoba,
Winnipeg R3T 2N2, Canada, e-mail: vsmil@cc.umanitoba.ca.
tial environment for high yield, so that improved bred variet-
ies of crops can be fully used. From 1961 to 2002, global irri-
gated agricultural land roughly doubled from 139 million to
277 million ha, while total land for arable and permanent crops
expanded slightly from 1,357 million to 1,534 million ha (Fig.
1). Global population and cereal production have also doubled
from 3.08 billion to 6.23 billion and from 877 million metric
tons to 2.03 billion metric tons. Irrigated land, which accounts
for about 18% of agricultural land area, produces about 40%
of the food for the global population, contributing consider-
ably to the alleviation of global poverty and starvation.
Sound and sustainable irrigated agriculture is indispens-
able for humankind to survive in the future. Now, about 70%,
or 2,504 km3, of the world’s annual freshwater usage of 3,572
km3 is for agriculture, and, of this, about 70% is used mainly
for rice paddy agriculture in Asia.
Our generation is primarily responsible for assuring sus-
tainable and efficient agriculture through wiser governance and
management of soil and water resources.
Keynotes 23
 Index (1961 = 100)
250
240 Total cereal production (1961 = 100)
Population (1961 = 100
230
Irrigation area (1961 = 100)
220 Land for arable and permanent crops (1961 = 100)
210 Rainfed area (1961 = 100)
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
90
1973

1987
1965
1961

1963

1967

1969

1971

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001
2002
Year

Fig. 1. World cereal production, population, and farmland area (1961-2002).

World water issues and conversion of policies
for irrigation—from expansion to increasing efficiency
of existing systems
Fresh water existing on the global land surface in readily us-
able forms such as lakes, swamps, and rivers accounts for only
about 0.0075% (104,620 km3) of all the water existing on our
planet. This percentage is equivalent to the ratio of two tea-
spoonfuls of water (15 cm3) in a typical household bathtub
full of water. Of the annual global rainfall on land, which sup-
ports the hydrologic cycle of fresh water, only about 40%
(45,000 km3) becomes potential water resources after exclud-
ing evaporation. Humankind has to share this available water
with other water uses such as industry, domestic use, and
biodiversity while producing food for the more than 6 billion
people living on the planet.
In the 20th century, the century of fire and machines, we
strived to develop water resources mostly through construc-
tion technologies such as large reservoirs, until the early 1980s.
Not only drastic growth in the world human population but
also worldwide trends of economic growth and expansion of
cities, especially in developing countries, resulted in sharp in-
creases in demand for domestic and industrial water use, and
put strong and continuous pressure on the increase in water
supplies. Water resource development by construction of “hard-
ware” was promoted in many regions around the world.
However, after the 1980s, this type of development met
with certain limitations. Although the most effective way to
increase water resources, speaking from an engineering view-
point, was to build large reservoirs, appropriate construction
sites for new reservoirs became limited. Moreover, govern-
ments of developing countries faced financial pressure for the
operation and maintenance of overaged water facilities.
In the 21st century, the century of water and life, another
option has been recognized as a better solution. That is to in-
crease the efficiency of the use of water in existing systems. In
many countries, attempts to increase this efficiency have been
made through (1) renovating irrigation water facilities such as
lining canals with concrete, (2) introducing/reinforcing volu-
metric water pricing, and (3) introducing participatory irriga-
tion management (PIM).
Efficiency of agricultural water use in different regional
conditions—arid and humid
Improving water-use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue
during international water discussions nowadays. Many ex-
perts have reported case studies and mentioned success sto-
ries. These reports are helpful for improving water-use effi-
ciency in regions where it is reasonable for farmers to con-
stantly use a minimum amount of irrigation water to secure
good crop growth. The concept of water-use efficiency in this
definition is typically applicable to agriculture in arid/semi-
arid regions. This concept comes from the idea that all water
should be consumed in crop fields in the form of evapotrans-
piration, allowing no water to be lost elsewhere.
However, in humid regions blessed with abundant pre-
cipitation, the shortcomings of this concept have now come to
be widely recognized. These shortcomings are mainly caused
by neglect of the following factors accompanying rice paddy
farming in these regions: (1) the highly substitutable charac-
teristic of water usage and labor investment, (2) the dynami-

24 Rice is life: scientific perspectives for the 21st century

 Socioeconomic externalities generated by irrigation
and rice paddy agriculture in the Asian monsoon region

Automatically provided by agricultural activities

Multiple use of water by farmers and residents

Aquaculture, duck raising, washing, cleaning, bathing,
cooling, gardening, fire fighting, etc.

Nonuse-value in cultural-religious activities

Multifaceted socioeconomic benefits to the public

Protect aqua-ecosystem, enhance water-related environment,
form landscape, recharge groundwater aquifer, stabilize
downstream river flow by return flow, etc.

Intentionally provided by special consideration and actions

l Provide water from agriculture for domestic use during severe

dry spells
l Increase performance of paddy fields while protecting reservoirs
during extreme floods
l Create winter sanctuaries for migratory birds
l Restore groundwater level for downstream city, etc.

Fig. 2. Externalities provided by activities of irrigation and rice paddy agricul-

ture.

cally fluctuating competitiveness among water users over the
short term, and (3) the enormous value of socioeconomic ele-
ments other than food/fiber production; this value is defined
as an “externality.” Factor 1 allows for reduced labor invest-
ment costs where farmers use much more than the minimum
amount of water required for meeting crop water requirements.
Factor 1 also allows for a drastic reduction in water use through
farmers’ collective efforts during severe dry spells that occur
unexpectedly under the conditions of factor 2.
A considerable part of the water irrigated into rice paddy
fields is not consumed but drained into the basin downstream
during the rainy season from vast paddy fields in the Asian
monsoon region. This is because (1) the value of water is quite
low because of abundant precipitation and low competitive-
ness among water users, and (2) immersion cultivation with a
larger amount of water than the equivalent to evapotranspira-
tion reduces labor investment cost.
This behavior seemingly decreases water-use efficiency,
but, on the contrary, the affluent water use provides diverse
and enormous value for socioeconomic externalities. The
drained return flow also helps to preserve nature, resulting in
any negative externality counting for nothing. Note that, in
rice paddy agriculture in humid regions, the irrigation water
automatically serves as an externality, whereas, in upland fields
and relatively arid regions, the water has to be set aside and
preserved, especially for externalities.
Socioeconomic externalities in rice paddy agriculture
in humid regions
The enormous external value generated by irrigated rice paddy
agriculture can be grouped in the following categories: (1)
multiple use of water by farmers and residents for aquacul-
ture, duck raising, washing, cleaning, bathing, cooling, gar-
dening, and fire fighting; (2) multifaceted socioeconomic ben-
efits to the public such as protecting the aqua-ecosystem, en-
hancing the water-related environment, forming landscape,
recharging the groundwater aquifer, and stabilizing downstream
river flow by return flow; and (3) various other nonuse-values
in cultural-religious activities (Fig. 2).
The socioeconomic situation of countries in the Asian
monsoon region is diversified, including tropical developing
and temperate developed countries. However, predominant rice
paddy agriculture and its enormous external value are com-
mon to them. Note that the external values are not only impor-
tant for farmers and the economy in developing countries but
are also very valuable for citizens of developed countries in
providing multifaceted socioeconomic benefits.
Water productivity, often advocated by the catch phrase
“more crop per drop,” is a newly conceptualized term as an
indicator of water-use efficiency in rainfed agriculture, using
about 16,000 km3 of rainwater annually, as well as in irrigated
agriculture. This concept, however, unjustly underestimates the
water productivity of rice paddy agriculture in the Asian mon-
soon region. Therefore, it must be reevaluated after incorpo-
rating the high value of socioeconomic externalities.
Traditional participatory irrigation management
and governance (PIM/G) in rice paddy systems
Recent challenges to establish PIM in Asian monsoon coun-
tries show difficulties in transferring the operation and man-
agement (O&M) of irrigation from government agencies to
farmers. Lessons learned from these challenges include how
to establish effective incentives for farmers. Initially, strong
economic incentives superior to disincentives such as labor

Keynotes 25
contributions of O&M and water charge are necessary to launch
modernized operations. Afterward, the diverse values of so-
cioeconomic externalities for farmers become driving forces
to improve their performance. The diverse values are realized
step by step through various group activities. Well-sustained
traditional PIM shows many examples of built-in incentives
related to externalities as well as agricultural production.
When we look around the world, we find many current
irrigation systems that have been fulfilling both requisites of
food production and externalities, such as the Muang Fai in
Thailand, Kanna in Sri Lanka, and Subak in Indonesia. The
Dujiangyan irrigation system in Sichuan, China, was estab-
lished in 250 B.C. and is still working for about 670,000 ha of
farmland. In Japan, many old irrigation systems have lasted
for centuries, with technology advancing in stages. It has to be
noted that these systems always consist of weirs, canals, and
ponds operated and managed by indigenous farmers’ organi-
zations, namely, Land Improvement Districts (LIDs). Most of
them are historically as old as their weirs and canals. The LIDs
are responsible for O&M of nationwide canals extending a
total length of about 400,000 km (equivalent to ten times around
the globe).
We found it very interesting that irrigation systems that
achieve a good balance between externalities and food pro-
duction are observed mostly in old systems. In presenting this
paper at the WRRC, I wanted to mention representative canal
systems that have completed the difficult task of satisfying both
requisites.
Renaissance of efficient and sustainable rice production
with socioeconomic externalities generated by PIM/G
Group activities through PIM/G can generate much more value
for externalities than individually disconnected activities. A
good example is shown by a full cultural and religious perfor-
mance in Bali, Indonesia. Such a group activity works as a
platform for consultation in a local community and sometimes
develops new activities such as mutual farming aid, group
Research strategy for rice in the 21st century
Ronald P. Cantrell and Gene P. Hettel
Thank you for this opportunity to speak
to you as one of the keynoters of this
week’s World Rice Research Confer-
ence, which—as the culminating sci-
entific event of the International Year
of Rice 2004—has brought to Tsukuba
the planet’s leading rice scientists to ex-
change the latest research information
on key rice-related issues.
26 Rice is life: scientific perspectives for the 21st century
composting, and joint ventures for purchasing and shipping.
In Japan, agriculture has lost its substantial position in
the country’s economy. However, farmer group activities
through PIM/G create new values for socioeconomic exter-
nalities as a safety net against natural disasters and as a gen-
erator of resources for other sectors. At the WRRC, I can men-
tion examples of providing water from agriculture to domestic
use during severe dry spells, increasing the performance of
paddy fields while protecting reservoirs during extreme floods,
creating winter sanctuaries for migratory birds, and restoring
groundwater levels for downstream water use in cities in win-
ter. The value of socioeconomic externalities cannot be com-
mercially exchanged, whereas agricultural products are widely
traded in the international market. Irrigation systems and wa-
ter accompanied by the value of externalities are social over-
head capital and commons. Therefore, development programs
for irrigated agriculture should take into account external value
as a benefit vis-à-vis the cost of the investment.
I believe that improving water-use efficiency by fully
taking into account the value of socioeconomic externalities
can create a future with more sustainable agriculture through a
rice-based system. Sustainability of this agriculture will be
strongly supported by interactions between human activities
through PIM/G and broad-banded products, including various
economic values, the living environment, and cultural-religious
activities, as well as the agricultural product rice.
The proposition I have maintained in this paper might
be a claim for the renaissance of old systems because water
management in the 21st century requires a holistic approach
in harmony with various factors, including externalities, as
some old irrigation systems have achieved. These old systems
make a good guide for future sustainable development.
I especially wish to acknowledge the contributions of
Mr. Kazumi Yamaoka of the National Institute for Rural Engi-
neering in co-authoring this document and preparing the pre-
sentation materials.
Why rice research must continue
Before we go into the details of what we think should be the
research strategy for rice in the 21st century, I would like to
discuss, briefly, why indeed rice research for developing coun-
tries must continue and be reinvigorated.
Since the dawn of the Green Revolution—which began
in Asia with IRRI’s release in 1966 of IR8, the first modern,
high-yielding semidwarf rice variety—the global rice harvest
has more than doubled, racing slightly ahead of population
growth. This increased production and the resulting lower