Safety Management in Railways - SAMRAIL

Acceptable Risk Level Definition of Risk

Jan-Tecker Gayen

Bieleschweig 4, Braunschweig 14.09.2004

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Outline

Legal Requirements Safety principles General definitions of risk Components of risk - Reference values and - Types of harm/damage Damage Conclusions

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Legal Requirements
Statements of the EU Safety Directive
The Committee has however come to the agreement that the present safety level, although not quantified and known in detail, is sufficient.

Statements of national laws

Germany (MGS) Great Britain (ALARP) France (GAMAB)

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Safety Principles
ALARP
Any risk must be reduced to a level which is as low as reasonably practicable

GAME/GAMAB
All new guided transport systems must offer a level of risk globally at least as good as the one offerd by any equivalent existing system

MGS principle
the German MGS principle (mindestens gleiche Sicherheit) is based on the EBO and in general the same as the GAME/GAMAB principle

MEM
No direct relation to railways

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Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

General Definitions of Risk

Definitions taken from different sources (e.g.): Standards: IEC 61508, EN 50126 (IEC 62278), EN 50129 Regulations: Railway Safety Management Systems Regulations (Transport Canada) Handbooks: ARP 4761 (SAE, aviation) Air Navigation System Assessment Methodology (Eurocontrol, aviation)

There are no definitions for risk neither in the Safety Directive nor in the EU regulation on rail transport statistics

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

General Definition of Risk

Definition taken from the international standard IEC 61508

Risk is a combination of the probability of occurrence of harm and the severity of that harm.
Risk, the probable rate of occurrence of hazard causing harm and the degree of severity of harm. Risk, the combination of the frequency, or probability, and the consequence of a - What event. specified hazardous is the reference value for probability of occurrence?

Problems:

- What kind or loss measured as the probability and severity Risk means the chance of injuryof harm do we have to take into account? of an adverse- effect on health, societal risk and collcetiveor other things of Individual risk, property, the environment risk how can we value.
Risk: The frequency (probability) of an occurrence and the associated level of hazard. Risk: The combination of the probability, or frequency of occurrence of a defined hazard and the magnitude of the consequences of the occurrence.

define these terms?

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Reference values for frequency

Risk = frequency (probability) * damage
Reference values:

Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey :

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Categories of harm/damage
Risk = frequency (probability) * damage
Personal damage: Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey : Fatalities (passenger) Fatalities (passenger+staff) Fatalities (passenger+staff+ trespasser+ ..) Material damage: Infrastructure, rolling stock Cargo Secondary damage: Environment Minutes of delay (trains) :

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Calculating risk
Risk = frequency (probability) * damage
Personal damage: Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey :
possible combinations

Fatalities (passenger) Fatalities (passenger+staff) Fatalities (passenger+staff+ trespasser+ ..) Material damage: Infrastructure, rolling stock Cargo Secondary damage: Environment Minutes of delay (trains) :

There is a need to agree at least on the reference values!

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Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Calculating risk
Risk = frequency (probability) * damage
Personal damage: Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey :
possible combinations

Fatalities (passenger) Fatalities (passenger+staff) Fatalities (passenger+staff+ trespasser+ ..) Material damage: Infrastructure, rolling stock Cargo Secondary damage: Environment Minutes of delay (trains) :

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

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Choosing reference values

No railway statistic necessary No relation to railway traffic density Results of calculations are not sensible comparable between countries Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey Collected under the EU-regulation on railway transport statistics Common Safety Indicators of the Safety Directive ask for trainkilometre as reference value Takes not into account the time spent waiting on stations Not yet collected (for statistical reasons) Can be calculated using the average speed (not collected) and train-km/passenger-km (collected, as mentioned above)

Not yet collected (for statistical reasons) Number can be obtained e.g. from ticket sales Risk depends on length of journey; aspect not taken into account

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

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Choosing reference values

No railway statistic necessary No relation to railway traffic density Results of calculations are not sensible comparable between countries Population Year Train-km Passenger-km Train-hour Passenger-hour Journey Collected under the EU-regulation on railway transport statistics Common Safety Indicators of the Safty Directive ask for trainkilometre as reference value Takes not into account the time spent waiting on stations Not yet collected (for statistical reasons) Can be calculated using the average speed (not collected) and train-km/passenger-km (collected, as mentioned above)

Do all
Gayen

Not yet collected (for statistical reasons) Number can be obtained e.g. from ticket sales Risk depends on length of the same significance? risk calculations havejourney; aspect not taken into account
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Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

Choosing reference values

Example: Calculating the risk using different reference values e.g. kilometre or hour

risk km =

damage train - kilometre

riskhour =

damage damage damage * average_speed = = train - hour train - kilometre train - kilometre average_speed

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

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Risk with respect to reference values

Example: Calculating the risk using different reference values - two countries A and B - same damage, same train-kilometre - average speed in country B is twice the average speed in country A

risk km, A = risk km,B =

damage train - kilometre

riskhour,A =

damage * average_sp eed A train - kilometre damage * average_sp eedB damage * 2 * average_sp eed A = train - kilometre train - kilometre

riskhour,B =

riskhour,B = 2 * riskhour,A

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Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

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Damage
Personal damage Fatalities (passenger) Fatalities (passenger+staff) Fatalities (passenger+staff+ trespasser+ ..) Material damage Open questions: Infrastructure, rolling stock - Which events count? What is an accident, what an incident? Cargo - Fatalities, serious injuries, minor injuries which ones have to be Secondary damage Environment considered? How do we calculate equivalent fatalities ? - What is a passenger? How do we handle trespassers? How about Minutes of delay (trains) suicides? : - How do we measure material damage to get comparable results? - How can we measure environmental damage? - Is it feasible to calculate all minutes of delay? - How do we mix different damage?

...
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Conclusion

Necessary actions: getting an uniform understanding of terms and definitions within the EU e.g. risk, passenger, accident... finding an agreement on reference values and types of harm/damage e.g. train-kilometre, passenger-kilometre, personal harm....

Thank You for Your attention.

Gayen

Bieleschweig4; 14. September 2004

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