Paleoflood Hydrology And Flood Hydrology

Daniel Levish, Ph.D. Technical Service Center

June 2011

Reclamation Dam Safety

350 Storage Dams 17 Western States Constructed 1900s - 1980s Water Storage and Hydropower

The Problem

PMF 50 feet over Pleistocene terrace

About 10 percent of the PMF would remove the Pleistocene terrace (>10,000 years old)

In the absence of sufficient rainfall data, it is fortunate that geology furnishes, in many instances, a clue to the probable heights of flood-waters. The clue referred to is afforded by flood-plains and terraces, which often give evidences of heights of water greater than those which would be indicated by the computations from greatest recorded rainfall.
American Society of Civil Engineers Final Report of the Special Committee on Floods and Flood Prevention January 19, 1916

Paleoflood Hydrology
Uses principles of geology, hydrology, and fluid dynamics to take advantage of long-lasting record of large floods Extend the record of large floods from hundreds to thousands of years Provides context for large historical floods Provides information on magnitude and frequency of floods of greatest interest to Dam Safety Reconstruct floods Establish non-exceedance bounds A key piece of data

Similar to Earthquake Hazard Analysis

Since at least the 1970s seismologists have used paleoseismic evidence for earthquake hazard analysis Geologic evidence of past earthquakes that ranges from hundreds to thousands of years is combined with seismological information, the gage record of earthquakes, to develop earthquake magnitude and frequency What is so different about hydrologists combining geologic evidence of floods, or the lack of floods, with the gage record of floods to develop flood magnitude and frequency?

What if you missed something?

Evidence of Past Floods

Record of Past Floods

Record of 1969 Flood

Record of 1862 Flood

Record of 1862 Flood

Limits of Floods

Why Not Just Bound the Size of Floods?

Similar to paleoseismic studies Circumvent the what if you missed one? Bounds are great value to frequency analysis Provide high-assurance for dam safety Bounds span 100s to 1000s of years on nearly every river in the West Simply quantify channel capacity as bounded by soil stratigraphic and geomorphic evidence Not very different from the goal of non-exceedance now have physically-based associated probability

7600 Year Old Volcanic Ash

Stable Surface

Example From North Platte River Employs Non-Exceedance and Reconstructed Floods

Upstream Snowmelt Non-Exceedance Bounds

Radiocarbon Dated Stratigraphy

Snowmelt Tributary Non-Exceedance Bound

2-D hydraulic model results indicate there has not been a discharge of this magnitude in nearly 7000 years

Downstream Thunderstorms Many Floods Larger Than Historical Floods

Numerous Locations with Flood Records Preserved

Record of Past Floods

Paleoflood Chronology
0
1 flood
1 flood

2 floods

1 flood

1 flood

1 flood 3 floods

200 400

2 floods

Lower stage flood 1 Flood

Radiocarbon Age (cal yrs)

2 floods

600 800
5 floods

GG2

3 floods

GG7 GG4 GG7

GG11

GG12
5 floods 5 floods

GG13

2 Floods

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

GG4

3 Floods
GG12

GG11 GG1 GG8 GG12

5 Floods

North Platte River at Glendo

Conclusions
Streams throughout the West have readily available records of the largest floods over thousands of years Information successfully collected at hundreds of sites Quickly and accurately define the limit of extreme flooding Evaluate the probability of large historical floods Provides a powerful tool for calculating extreme flood hazards used routinely in flood frequency analysis Revolutionized understanding of extreme floods Moved Reclamation away from deterministic hazard analysis to risk analysis