Football Betting Guide Part 1

Betting with Value:

What is value? Put simply it is when you think that the bookmakers odds are set
at a level which the reward outweighs the risk.

To check whether a bet is value all you have to do is :

· Estimate the winning chance of a side
· Get the best decimal price (the maths is easier) for
the bet
· Multiply the % chance of a win against the odds

Any result of 1.00 or greater means that you have value!

Value example #1

So if you think a certain team playing at home has a 50% chance of winning,
then you will only bet on it if the price available is better than 2.00.

Because 50% = 0.50 * 2.00 = 1.00 (or fair value) anything less than this means
that over the course of the season you WILL lose money on the bet.

So do not bet on a team just because you think they will win - unless you've also
considered their chance of winning - and the price offered - and decided that
mathematically it is value.
Value example #2

If we played a simple game - and I let you toss a 6-sided dice - what would the
fair price be for any 1 side coming up ?

Each side has 1/6 chance (or 16%) so you can work out fair value by dividing 1 /
0.16 (16%) and getting the number 6.00 (decimal odds) or 5/1 (fractional odds).

So if I offer you a bet at a price of better than 6.00 you should take it - if it's less
than that (say 5.00) you should not take it - even though the price of 5.00 sounds
high - it is not value.
Always try to calculate your winning chance of a bet

Of course sometimes you'll see the odds being offered first but do NOT place the
bet until you've checked the stats and made sure that you can statistically work
out the winning chance.

Calculating a winning chance for a football team is difficult and you will have to
work out your own methods - but I'll suggest a few basic methods to consider.
It's generally understood that about half of all games end in home wins - another
quarter end in draws - and the rest are away wins. This is true across nearly all
professional leagues. Home advantage is real.

A common method of forecasting is to look at the previous match results during

the current season - and perhaps last season too - in order to estimate chances
of a result.

If you did this for the 2004-05 English Premier League then you'd see some eye
opening results:

· Champions Chelsea still only won 73% of home games

(14/19)
· Bottom placed Southampton only lost 68% of away
games (13/19)
· Only the top 5 sides won more than half their home
games
· Middle to Lower sides often draw as many games as
any other result

By cross referencing the "home form" of the hosts with the "away form" of the
visiting team we can calculate a rough guide to the game - for example :

· Assume a match between two sides

· Host home form is 7-2-1 and visitors away form is 1-3-6
What would the raw chance of a result be?

ANSWER:

HOME = 7 + 6 = 13 of 20 total games = 65%

DRAW = 2 + 3 = 5 of 20 totals games = 25%
AWAY = 1 + 1 = 2 or 20 total games = 10%

So fair prices might be 1.53 - 4.00 -10.00

Of course it's not that easy. If it was that simple to pick results then bookies
would be going out of business as punters would be skilfully choosing the best
offers and always winning. So what else can affect the chances?

Another popular method looks at recent form rather than season long form. The
idea is that a team that's been winning recently builds confidence and perhaps
has also recovered from injury woes ... while a losing side lacks the fight required
to get a result.

This is somewhat true - but other patterns emerge - especially from mid-table
sides who by definition are a bit inconsistent. So if a average side is on a good or
bad run then it is no surprise (to me at least) to see them suddenly turn it around.

Injuries and absences can also have a big impact on a side. But some players
are more important than others and generally defence matters more than attack.

I find that goalkeepers, and central defenders and players are key to winning. If
one of these is missing then it's a big warning. Also important is the team captain.
A missing captain is a sign of a leaderless side.

Another complicating factor is the local derby game. Matches between fierce
rivals usually are hard fought affairs simply because both sets of fans demand
the best from their players against "the enemy". Arsenal vs Spurs games are
always tight, fiery affairs no matter what the recent form ...

Generally the effect is that the natural home advantage is actually negated to a
large degree. I might not make sense but it's true - the visiting team is motivated
and seems to overcome a hostile crowd easier if it's a natural 'rival'.

Note that in recent years with Television and nationwide media coverage it
seems that "rivals" are no longer restricted to local sides so matches like Arsenal
v Man Utd and Real Madrid v Barcelona also take on this dimension.

There can also be tactical reasons to bet on or oppose a side. Perhaps the team
has just played in Europe and had a long trip, or is threatened by relegation and
so "rests" players for a cup fixture.

Maybe the news is of a manager being sacked - a star player being dropped - a
club under financial pressure - or simply the players being booed at the end of
each game.

Will it motivate the side or demoralise the side? All of these events could and
should be considered.

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