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Vol. 156 No.

1 January 2012

Closing Power and Pipeline Gaps

EPRIs R&D Plans China Sets Lofty Energy Goals New Tech for Job Safety Muscatine Wins PRBCUG Award

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Established 1882 Vol. 156 No. 1

January 2012

ON THE COVER

The U.S. has plenty of fuel, but the infrastructure needed to deliver it to power plants and electricity users is often absent or gappy. Renewables, including wind and solar, are abundant, but transmission lines dont always exist to carry renewable power to load centers. Estimated reserves of natural gas have increased, fueling hopes of a cleaner alternative to coal, but getting that gas to processors and plants will require new pipelines. Filling these infrastructure gaps is expensivebut could be necessary. Cover art by Elizabeth C. Johnston, Lizzardbrand Inc.

26

COVER STORY: 2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


26 U.S. Confronts Pipeline Gaps While Europe Juggles Renewables and Debt
Hugely increased estimates of shale gas reserves and new federal pollution control regulations have made gas the front-runner for new generation in the U.S., but gas will only win in the long run if new pipeline infrastructure can be put in place. Across the pond, renewables still shine brightly, but economic woes are putting a strain on all new build plans. Its going to be an interesting year as potential meets practicality.

SPECIAL REPORTS
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

40 EPRI Bridges Industry R&D Gaps


The senior VP for research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) maps out six key innovation and research paths that his organization is pursuing to help the electricity industry meet the challenges ahead. EPRI calls them Long-Term Operations, Near-Zero Emissions, Renewable Resources and Integration, Water Resource Management, Energy Efficiency (End-to-End), and Smart Grid.

40

POWER IN CHINA

50 Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan Pushes Power Industry in New Directions


Contributors from North China Electric Power University in Beijing provide insights into the power industry requirements of their countrys current Five-Year Plan: develop clean energy, optimize the production of coal-fired electricity, rationally allocate peaking power, develop distributed energy, and construct a strong and smart grid.

Web Exclusive: U.S. Military Smart Grid Activities


Dont miss our coverage of one important agent in smart grid development: the U.S. military. If Pentagon spokespersons and the smart grid media are to be believed, we may see some of the most significant smart grid/electricity system developments come from the military in the next few years. Youll find The U.S. Military Gets Smart Grid associated with this issues features in our archives and on our home page in January at www.powermag.com. Looking for a fast way to access all of our smart grid coverage? Click the Smart Grid hot button at the top of the home page.

Connect with POWER


If you like POWER magazine, follow us online (POWERmagazine) for timely industry news and comments. Become our fan on Facebook follow us on Twitter

January 2012 POWER

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56

FEATURES
PowdER RivER bASin coAl

56 PRbcUG Small Plant of the Year: Muscatine Power & water


A 293-MW municipal utility plant won the 2011 Small Plant Award from the Powder River Basin Coal Users Group (PRBCUG). Learn how an explosion shortly after converting to this volatile, low-sulfur coal prompted plant staff to join and learn from the PRBCUG how to successfully operate a plant that was not originally designed to handle PRB coal.

PlAnT o&M

60 navigant Announces coal-Fired Generation operational Excellence Awards


Want to make your coal-fired plant award-worthy? Check out previous award winners and learn about the criteria that one major consulting company uses to determine whos a winner.

60

woRKSiTE SAFETY

62 Real-time Proactive Safety in construction


Collisions involving moving vehicles and equipment are the primary cause of construction injuries and deaths. In this article, the Construction Industry Institute introduces remote sensing and visualization technology that promises to improve worker situational awareness and save lives.

dEPARTMEnTS
6 My Top 10 Predictions for 2012 8 10 10 11 12 14 14 16 18 20 20 23 world Energy outlook Forecasts Great Renewables Growth Australia levies landmark carbon Tax nRc to implement lessons learned from Fukushima GE Uses Steel Mill Gases to Power Turbine THE biG PicTURE: Gas Taxes PJM completes Unique dual-Primary control centers PowER digest level Switches Keep Electrostatic Precipitators online Asian Sub-bituminous coal Users Group Formed condenser life cycle Seminar Marmaduke Award Trophy Presented correction
lEGAl & REGUlAToRY FocUS on o&M GlobAl MoniToR SPEAKinG oF PowER

62

24 Green Technology = Green Jobs?


By Steven F Greenwald and Jeffrey P Gray, Davis Wright Tremaine LLP . .

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66 nEw PRodUcTS

72 Upbraiding the Utilities


By Dr. Paul M. Grant, IBM research staff member emeritus

coMMEnTARY

On the Web: International Solar Trade Dispute

Its complicated. U.S.-China Solar Trade Dispute Gets Thornier in the Web Exclusives section of our home page at www.powermag.com helps you understand the myriad aspects of this important issue. The story will also be associated with this issues Global Monitor.

www.powermag.com

POWER January 2012

TODAYS CHALLENGES CREATE TOMORROWS INNOVATION


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EDITORIAL & PRODUCTION


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POWER January 2012

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SPEAKING OF POWER

My Top 10 Predictions for 2012


he New Year will be pivotal for the power generation industry, as you will read in our 2012 Industry Forecast (p. 26) and my list of predictions below. Looking back over the past year, I again gave myself a B+ on my 2011 predictions (see p. 33 for a rundown of my individual scores). 10. The Kyoto Protocol Dies. The Kyoto Protocol will expire on December 31, 2012. Canada, Japan, and Russia have said they will not participate in a renewed agreement; the U.S. never signed on to Kyoto in the first place; and India is preoccupied with growing its economy. The chance for a new multilateral agreement is nil. 9. Fracking Regulations Increase. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Energy (DOE) will produce a series of rules that will tangibly reduce the number of natural gas wells that use fracking technology to reach natural gas resources located deep underground. 8. Coal Combustion Residuals Rule Delayed, Again. The EPAs proposed rule, first published in June 2010, describes two regulatory options: classify ash as a nonhazardous or as a hazardous waste. A final rule, delayed multiple times, is now predicted for a mid-2012 release. Insiders say the EPA wants to make a hazardous determination, but others in the Obama administration recognize that such a determination is politically intemperate before the November election. Like the unpopular ozone rule, the EPA will kick the decision into 2013. 7. Cooling Water Intake Structure Rule Goes Live. This rule, affecting the cooling water systems of 670 power plants, effectively eliminates the use of once-through cooling for any new plant additions and requires current users to make modifications to existing systems to reduce the number of aquatic organisms entering the cooling water system. The rule will be finalized mid-year, forcing some existing plants to install cooling towers. 6. Grid Reliability Trumps EPA Air Quality Rules. The North American Electric Reliability Councils recent grid reliability report determined that the EPAs new air quality rules may significantly affect bulk
6

power system reliability depending on the scope and timing of the rule implementation and the mechanisms in place to preserve reliability. The EPA denies the rules will have any effect on system reliability. I predict this standoff will continue until an independent analysis, perhaps by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

record number of projects before December 31, 2012, when the production tax credit (PTC) expires. However, the project queue for 2013 and beyond is empty. If the wind industry cant survive with the current level of subsidies and volume of production, then when? After 20 years, it is time for the wind industry to wean itself from government sub-

Expect additional bankruptcies by companies that received DOE-approved loan guarantees.


(definitely not the DOE, which has sided with the EPA on this issue). That analysis will conclude that the impact of new EPA rules has a significant impact on system reliability in regions with large amounts of coal-fired generation or excessive transmission congestion. 5. 1603 Treasury Grant Program Will Not Be Renewed. The popularity of a program that writes a check for 30% of the cost of a project and has disbursed $9.8 billion to date to mostly wind and solar project developers is obvious: It is always better to get your money up front. In a recent press release, the Spanish company Iberdrola Renewables noted its unprecedented success in obtaining these cash grantsover $1 billion since September 2009. Congress will not renew the program when it expires on December 31, 2011, or at any time during 2012. 4. More Companies with DOE Loan Guarantees Will Fail. On the heels of the $500 million loss incurred by taxpayers when Solyndra failed, expect additional bankruptcies by companies that received DOE-approved loan guarantees. A recent Government Accountability Office audit found that 50% of the loan guarantees it examined were issued before full reviews were conducted, just as with Solyndra. When the losses reach several billion dollars, DOE Secretary Steven Chu will become the administrations scapegoat, leaving his job before the November elections. 3. Production Tax Credits Will Not Be Renewed. Developers are racing to complete a
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sidies and accept the fact that Congress will not renew the PTC in 2012. 2. MACT Rules Will Be Delayed and Rewritten. The proposed utility MACT rule was released in April 2010 and made final in February 2011. A largely revised rule that corrected known flaws was re-released on December 2. Unfortunately, the new rule still requires compliance when compliance is largely impossible by most coal-fired utilities. I predict that because this rule is said to eliminate between 200,000 and 400,000 jobs or more, if you believe the more dire predictions, there will be sufficient congressional bipartisan support for a rewrite that will achieve similar results while providing a realistic compliance schedule. 1. GHG Lawsuits Prevail. Two days of oral arguments are scheduled to begin on February 28 before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in response to the lawsuits filed by Texas on May 24, and joined by 14 states, challenging the EPAs greenhouse gas (GHG) endangerment finding and tailoring rule. I predict the plaintiffs will prevail in these lawsuits against the EPA, although a final resolution will surely rest with the Supreme Court, perhaps in 2013. I dont expect everyone to agree with each of my predictions. If you have strong feelings, aye or nay, let me know at editor@ powermag.com. Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWERs editor-in-chief
POWER January 2012

P E O P L E

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T E C H N O L O G Y

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World Energy Outlook Forecasts Great Renewables Growth

Driven by policies to limit carbon emissions, as well as government subsidies, the share of worldwide nonhydro renewable power is set to grow from just 3% in 2009 to 15% in 2035, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts in its recently released World Energy Outlook 2011. Under the same scenariowhich assumes that carbon pricing, explicit or implicit, is adopted in developed countries as well as Chinacoal will continue to reign as the worlds largest source of power globally in 2035, but to a much lesser extent, falling from 41% to 33% (Figure 1). Power from oil will become a rarity, as it drops from 5% in 2009 to 1.5% in 2035, and the percentage of power from natural gas, hydro, and nuclear will remain relatively constant throughout the period, at 22%, 16%, and 13% respectively, the report says. Demand for power is forecast to continue its upward trend, even though in 2009 demand fell by an unprecedented 0.7% in response to the global economic slowdown. In the New Policies Scenario, which assumes carbon pricing in only developed countries and China, demand will grow by four-fifths, at 2.4% to over 31,700 TWh in 2035. If current policies are continued, as assumed in the Current Policies scenario, demand will double, and under the 450 Scenario, which assumes carbon policies are implemented in every country, it will increase by almost twothirds. Nearly 80% of demand growth will occur in developing countries, with China and India representing two-thirds of that growth. Industry will remain the largest power-consuming sector, with residential use following close behind. Even with widespread use of electric vehicles, as is envisioned by 2035, transportation will only account for about 2% of total demand. Coal power will double in developing countriesfar outweighing a fall in developed countries, particularly in the European Union (EU), where it plunges by two-thirds as a result of the EUs carbon emissions trading program. (See The Big Picture on p. 12 for more on carbon taxes.) In the U.S., even under the New Policies Scenario, coal will remain comparatively stable, dropping

1. Policies prime renewable pump. According the Interna-

just 3% between 2009 and 2035. Chinas share of coal power is also expected to drop from 79% in 2009 to 56% in 2020, but in India, coal use is projected to almost triple. The IEA projects that more-efficient coal-fired plants will be built through 2035, including ultrasupercritical designs and integrated gasification combined cycle plants, driven by increases in coal prices and reductions in the capital costs of advanced coal technologies. As a result, the average global thermal efficiency of coal plants increases by four percentage points, from 38% in 2009 to 42% in 2035, the report says. By 2035, 65 GW of coal capacity will be equipped with carbon capture and storage, though related technologies only become competitive with other generation technologies closer to 2035, and only in regions that have adopted a carbon price. Natural gasfired generation will grow from 4,300 TWh in 2009 to a little over 7,900 TWh in 2035 under the New Policies Scenario, with much of that growth occurring in China (one-fifth), the Middle East (one-fifth), and India (one-tenth). Gas generation will also grow in developed countries, spurred by efficiency improvements and carbon pricing that will make gas power competitive with coal. Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) will remain the dominant gas-fired generation technology (over 60% of growth in gas-fired generation will be produced by CCGT plants), but use of open-cycle gas turbines is also forecast to more than double. The nuclear accident in Japan resulted in retirement plans for all nuclear plants in Germany by the end of 2022, no lifetime extensions or new plants in Switzerland, decommissioning of Units 1 to 4 and no construction of new units at the Fukushima Daiichi site, and delays in capacity additions in China. In the wake of the Japanese disaster, financing may become more difficult to secure for nuclear projects worldwide, leading to an increased cost of capital, the IEA forecasts. Compared to figures published in the 2010 Outlook, expected construction costs have risen by 5% to 10%. Even so, many countries will press ahead with plans for new nuclear, though short-term delays are expected. Globally, nuclear power capacity is projected to rise in the New Policies Scenario from 393 GW in 2009 to 630 GW in 2035just some 20 GW lower than projected in the previous years Outlook. Renewables expand significantly in all three scenariosand

tional Energy Agencys (IEAs) World Energy Outlook 2011 the share of renewables in global installed power generation capacity and additions in the New Policies Scenario is poised to surge to 15% in 2035, from 3% in 2009. Courtesy: IEA Total installed capacity Capacity additions: Renewables Nuclear 10,000 8,000 6,000 Existing 2010 capacity Oil Gas Coal

2. Continued support.

Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity and biofuels by region in the New Policies Scenario are set to increase, with renewable subsidies increasing from $66 billion in 2010 (compared with $409 billion for fossil fuels) to $250 billion in 2035, the International Energy Agency says. Courtesy: IEA Rest of world 250 India China United States European Union

4,000 2,000 0 2010


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POWER January 2012

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especially in the New Policies Scenario, where they triple, from 3,900 TWh in 2009 to 11,100 TWh in 2035, driven by government policies, including subsidies (Figure 2). The bulk of this growth comes from wind and hydro (about 33% each); biomass accounts for about 17% and solar photovoltaic (PV) for about 10% of all renewable generation. The U.S., China, EU, and India will see the most wind growth (almost 75%) and about 70% of solar PV growth. Ultimately, China will be the worlds leading onshore wind power producer. The IEA suggests that solar PV is also set to grow tremendously, at a rate of 15% per year until 2035. The EU currently accounts for about 75% of global solar PV generation. Europe will continue to see strong growth over the next few years, but between 2020 and 2035, the increases in solar PV generation in China, the U.S., and India will each be larger than in the EU. Hydropower has already been developed extensively in many developing countries, and there is limited remaining potential, given the costs and environmental constraints, the report says. Developing countries will see 85% of new hydro capacity additions, with China, India, and Brazil making more than half of those additions. Biomass power plants grow at an average annual rate of 6.5%, which results in a five-fold growth in output over the Outlook period, from 288 TWh in 2009 to 1,500 TWh in 2035. Again, the bulk of that growth will come from developing countries, with China and India leading the pack.

(soft lignite) and black (lower sulfur and ash) coal for electric power. Large black coal plants, which fire 57% of Australias generation, are located near extensive black coalfields in both New South Wales and Queensland as well as in Western Australia. Brown coalfired baseload power stations are located in Victorias Latrobe Valley. South Australia also relies heavily on subbituminous coal mined at Leigh Creek in the north of that state. The country is the worlds largest exporter of coal: In 2010, black coal bought by countries including Japan, China, South Korea, and India brought in A$43 billion (US $43.96 billion)or 15% of Australias exports of goods and services, second only to iron ore. Because coal forms such a major part of Australias economic backbone, government regulation of emitted carbon has been a hotly contentious issue. The unpopularity and eventual fall in 2007 of former Prime Minister John Howard, a conservative, and the Labor Partys Kevin Rudd in 2010 have both been imputed to dissention over the tax. Current Prime Minister Julia Gillard hailed the taxs passage, which followed 37 parliamentary inquiries, and years of bitter debate and division, she told reporters in November. The Senate passed the tax by 36 to 32 votes after the Australian Greens Party supported the Gillard-led minority Labor government. The measure was part of an 18-bill package, which had passed the lower house of Parliament by a narrow margin of just two votes. Opposition leader Tony Abbott has pledged to repeal the law if he wins the prime ministerial post in late 2013.

Australia Levies Landmark Carbon Tax

After more than a decade debating whether to pass a carbon-limiting law, Australias Senate in November voted in a landmark bill that will impose a price on carbon emissions. The country, which accounts for just 1.5% of global carbon emissions, but which is the worlds highest emitter per capita because 80% of its power comes from coal-fired generation, has become the second major economy behind the European Union to pass such a measure. (See The Big Picture on p. 12 for other countries with carbon taxes.) The legislation sets a fixed carbon tax of A$23 (US$23.78) per metric ton on the top 500 polluters beginning July 2012. Increasing 2.5% annually, the tax will then move to an emissions trading scheme with a floating-rate price from July 2015. Government is expected to limit or increase the amount of tradable permits released every year, and companies could then be able to trade carbon credits with similar systems in New Zealand and Europe. Europe currently trades carbon emissions from between $8.70 and $12.60 a metric ton, a price significantly lowered by the ailing global economy. Spurred by a further A$10 billion funding in clean energy, the program is expected to spark multi-billion-dollar investments in natural gas and renewable power (though not, pointedly, in carbon capture and storage plants) to replace Australias coal plants. According to the Australian Coal Associationwhich said the tax package had fatal flawsthe nation relies heavily on brown

NRC to Implement Lessons Learned from Fukushima

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in October directed staff to begin implementing seven safety recommendations put forth by the federal bodys Near-Term Task Force on lessons learned from the nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co.s Daiichi power plant in Japans Fukushima prefecture last March. The recommendations affecting all 104 nuclear reactors (Figure 3) in the U.S. could be in place by April 2014, but experts have urged that implementation of the rules be expedited. The Task Force released its recommendations in July last year, providing a proposal to the NRC, which selected the seven recommendations that could be immediately implemented. According to the NRC, the mitigation strategy requirements could use performance-based standards in any new or revised regulations when possible. The seven recommendations cover loss of all AC power at a reactor that could prompt a station blackout, reviews of seismic and flooding hazards, emergency equipment, and plant staff

3. Lessons learned.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will begin implementing at all 104 U.S. reactors recommendations made by a task force that was commissioned to identify lessons learned from the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. The accident has renewed NRC scrutiny and public pushback against older plants like Indian Point (shown here) in Winchester County, N.Y. Courtesy: Entergy

Online: The Latest in the International Solar Trade Dispute


If you think the main reasons the U.S. is lagging in photovoltaics manufacturing are labor costs and Chinese subsidies, youre missing a big part of the picture. See U.S.-China Solar Trade Dispute Gets Thornier in the Web Exclusives section of our home page at www.powermag.com. The story will also be associated with this issues Global Monitor in the archives.

10

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POWER January 2012

training. They prescribe that: The NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary design-basis seismic and flooding protection of structure, systems, and components for each reactor in operation. The NRC require licensees to perform seismic and flood protection walkdowns to identify and address plant-specific vulnerabilities and adequacy of monitoring and maintenance for protection features. These include watertight barriers and seals in the interim. The NRC order licensees to provide reasonable protection for equipment from effects of design-basis external events. It could also require licensees to add equipment to address multi-unit events. The NRC strengthen station blackout mitigation capability at all operating and new reactors for design-basis and beyonddesign-basis external events. The NRC order licensees to include reliable hardened wetwell vents in BWR Mark I and Mark II containments. The NRC strengthen and integrate onsite emergency response capabilities such as emergency operating procedures and severe accident management guidelines. The NRC require facility emergency plans to address prolonged station blackout and multiunit events.

4. From parasitic facility to utility. A GE project at the 170MW power plant at Handan Iron & Steels mill in Handan City, China, promises to capture blast furnace and coke oven gases generated during steel manufacture and convert them into power. This image shows assembly of the massive GE 9E gas turbine. Courtesy: GE

The measures are critical even though a similar sequence of events in the U.S. is unlikely because existing mitigation measures could reduce the likelihood of core damage and radiological releases, NRC Commissioner George Apostolakis told attendees at a recent Eurosafe conference in November. The Great East Japan Earthquakea 3-minute, magnitude 9.0 temblorgenerated a series of tsunami waves as tall as 38.9 meters (130 feet), killed more than 25,000 people, and set off the worst nuclear disaster in 25 years. At Daiichi, a 15-meter (49-foot) tsunami inundated and disabled the offsite power supply (12 of 13 backup generators located in the basements of the turbine buildings) of three units, interrupting critical cooling functions. The tsunami also disabled their heat exchangers and electrical switchgear. All three units consequently saw explosions that damaged their reactor buildings. It was also later established that the cores of Daiichi 1, 2, and 3 had largely melted within the first three days of the crisis. The accident was not of extremely low probabilitythat is, it was not unthinkable, Apostolakis told attendees. The tsunami hazard was underestimated, critical equipment was located in lower plant elevations, and a flooding risk could have identified existing vulnerabilities, he said. But, he added, Rather than spending resources on analyzing extremely rare events, we should focus on ensuring the correctness of the design basis.

GE Uses Steel Mill Gases to Power Turbine

The worlds steel industry is power-hungry. Using energy both to supply heat and power for plant operations and as a raw material for the production of blast furnace coke, the sector uses a major fraction of the worlds total energy consumption. Chinas steel and iron sectors have been mushrooming on the back of skyrocketing demand, fed by an economy that has been growing at 9% annually for 10 years. According to Chinese academics, the nations steel and iron manufacturers energy demand reached more than 490 million tons of coal equivalentor more than 17% of the total national
January 2012 POWER

energy consumption in 2008. Chinas iron and steel industry produces 11% of its total carbon dioxide emissions (compared to 5% worldwide). They also suggest that 95% of these emissions are caused by combustion of fossil fuels. Enter engineers at GE Energy in November, who said they had found a way to turn some of steels biggest liabilities into assets. The solution involves an improvisation on an old method to convert carbon- and hydrogen-rich waste greenhouse gases into electricity. And they plan to put it into effect in a newly ordered project at the 170-MW power plant at Handan Iron & Steels mill in Handan City, China. GE says that the project will capture, clean, and compress the blast furnace and coke oven gases generated during the steel-making process and feed it to GEs giant 9E Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine (Figure 4)a technology that will reportedly produce enough electricity to potentially turn an averagesize steel mill into a net power generator. The plant can go from being a parasitic facility to essentially a utility, says GE Energys Ryan Derouin. If they are in that utility-island mode, they can start selling power back to the grid or send it to other parts of the plant. It gives the owner options. The technology also has the potential to nearly halve the electricity cost for Handan, from the market rate of $100/MW to as low as $60/MW, Derouin says. It could also allow the mill to lower costs, boost profitability, and gain a competitive edge, especially in a market with low grid reliability. The project has been challenging. One issue encountered was that waste gases at Handan vary in quality and contain too little of the heat-packing hydrogen to make the gases burn effectively by themselves. Instead of redesigning the plant, engineers opted to redesign the fuel, finding a clever way to clean, compress, and mix gases to power the huge turbine. This is the lowest quality fuel weve ever even considered burning, said Keiran Coulton, president of GE Energy, Global Industries. The Handan project is not unique: In 2010, GE rolled out two GE 9E turbines at Wuhan Iron & Steel, and it claims that so far, the turbines have increased Wuhans energy efficiency by 25% to 40% on average and lowered carbon dioxide emissions by about 2 million tons.
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Finland: The worlds first carbon/energy tax (1990).

Sweden: A tax on carbon emissions (1991). Tax does not apply to fuels used for power generation.

Norway: A 1991 tax on hydrocarbon fuels (petroleum, diesel, and gas).

The Netherlands: A general fuel tax on fossil fuels (1992).

Costa Rica: A 1997 carbon tax on hydrocarbon fuels. Some revenues used for environmental restoration efforts.

UK: A climate change levy in 2001 on the use of energy in the industry, commerce, and public sectors.

U.S.: Colorados City of Boulder (April 2007), Californias Bay Area Air Quality Management District (May 2008), and Montgomery County, Md. (May 2010) have imposed a tax on carbon emissions.

Canada: Quebec began collecting a tax on hydrocarbons in Oct. 2007. British Columbia implemented a revenue-neutral carbon tax in 2008. Albertas July 2007 levy taxes companies that emit more than 100,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases annually.

India: Levy on produced and imported coal (2010).

Australia: Carbon tax on major polluters to take effect in July 2012.

THE BIG PICTURE: Gas Taxes


After years of political wrangling, coal-rich Australia in November passed legislation that will require the nations top 500 polluters, starting in July 2012, to pay a tax at a fixed price of A$23 (US$23.50) per ton of carbon. The tax increases 2.5% annually until 2015, when an emissions trading program will begin. With the Kyoto Treaty set to expire at the end of this year, several governments have in recent years implemented similar measures on manufacturers and power companies. Otherslike South Africa, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Francehave proposed or are considering taxes on carbon emissions. See the web exclusive story associated with this issue at www.powermag.com for an in-depth look at the worlds carbon taxes.
12 www.powermag.com

POWER January 2012

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PJM Completes Unique Dual-Primary Control Centers

Swift technology developments in the power sector and increasingly sophisticated security threats have prompted regional transmission organization PJM Interconnection to switch from its aging centrally dispatched legacy system to two state-of-the-art primary control centers as part of its $200 million Advanced Control Center (AC2) program. The grid operator that serves parts of the Eastern Interconnection and administers a $35 billion wholesale electricity market said in November, when the switchover was completed, that the program was developed through more than five years of design, development, and testing. It was initiated in 2006 with Siemens Power Transmission & Distribution to define and develop a secure architecture and open messaging platform for modern, large-scale energy management and market management systems. Primary reasons PJM opted to sail ahead with the initiative were to reduce total cost of ownership by technology standardization and to upgrade its systems to new standards for security and resiliency because PJMs membership had more than doubled since its legacy systems were installed. Another reason was that the grid entity realized innovations beyond marginal improvements in existing control systems would be necessary to maintain power reliability, it said. Essentially, the AC2 program reduces risk because the two fully staffed primary control centers better ensure uninterrupted operation of markets and grid control if functionality were lost at

either center, PJM said (Figure 5). The scalable, service-oriented architecture (SOA) for large energy management/ market management systems promotes interoperability that cannot be found in proprietary, legacy systems, it said. The SOA-based system provides a common approach for software applications and computer-based infrastructure to exchange data and information. It also allows technology from other vendors to communicate and interoperate without special adaptation. PJM said it is the only grid operator in the U.S.and only one of three worldwide, including the British Columbia Transmission Corp. and Transpower in New Zealandto have or have considered dual primary control centers. The uniqueness of this PJM implementation is found in two elementsthe scale across the business enterprise and, most importantly, its use in real-time monitoring and control systems. While SOA has a proven history in other industries as the backbone of transaction-based software applications, to our knowledge, this is the first demonstrated deployment for real-time electric and market systems, PJM spokesperson Paula DuPont-Kidd told POWER in November. Fran Barret, director of the AC2 program, explained that this approach is an enterprise solution with a strategic technological direction: management of data and smart grid integration. The program has enabled PJM to deploy and demonstrate the approach across its Energy Management & Market Management Systems and its Innovation platform. PJMs customer-facing applications are expected to follow this direction as part of natural enhancement and replacement programs.

clude construction of 100-MW and 400MW demonstration farms by 2014 and 2016 respectively, where eight Korean suppliersincluding Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction Co., Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., and Hyundai Heavy Industries will test 3-MW to 7-MW turbines. Also in November, Chinas National Development Reform Energy Research Institute published its 2050 wind power plan, a report that predicts total installed wind capacity in the country will hit 400 GW by 2030 and 1,000 GW by 2050. China intends to back its wind industry with investments of up to $12 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) to supply 17% of domestic demand with wind by 2050. China, which offers a fixed pricing mechanism for wind power and offers subsidies, has already become the worlds biggest wind power market. It installed nearly 19 GW of new capacity in 2010, bringing total capacity to 44.7 GW.

GE, MetCap to Build New Gas Plant, Extend Novel Integrated Renewables Gas Project. GE and Turk-

5. Two ways about it. PJM completed a


$200 million program that essentially replaces an aging centrally dispatched legacy system with two state-of-the-art primary control centers. Courtesy: PJM

POWER Digest

South Korea, China Poised to Make Colossal Investments in Wind Power. South Korea, a nation that recently

announced it would spend 1 trillion won ($884 million) on feed-in tariffs for wind and solar projects, on Nov. 10 said it planned to invest 10.2 trillion won ($9 billion) in a 2.5-GW offshore wind farm that could come online by 2019. The government-led project will be led by Korea Electric Power Corp., which will procure turbines from eight local suppliers, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said. The project could be located off the southwest coast of the Korean peninsula in Jeollabukdo and Jeollanamdo provinces. It will inwww.powermag.com

ish energy company MetCap Energy Investments on Nov. 18 announced their investment in the 878-MW Eurostar project, a gas-fired plant that will help, starting in 2014, to power Istanbul, supporting Turkeys efforts to modernize its aging energy infrastructure and meet its growing electricity requirements. MetCap also announced approval from the Turkish government to nearly double the output of what it calls the worlds first integrated renewables combined-cycle (IRCC) plant by 2016. The initial phase of the Dervish IRCC plant in Karaman, Turkey, was announced in June and is based on GEs breakthrough FlexEfficiency 50 combined cycle technology (see our Dec. 2011 feature story on this turbine). The license extension allows energy output to be increased from 570 MW to 1,080 MW. GEs FlexEfficiency IRCC plant includes a nextgeneration 50-hertz 9FB gas turbine, a steam turbine, a generator, 22 MW of GE wind turbines, and 50 MW of eSolar concentrated solar thermal tower technology. The Dervish license extension also paves the way for a second plant using GEs FlexEfficiency technology and eSolars concentrated solar power technologies. UK Opens Largest CCS Pilot. The UK formally opened its largest carbon capture and storage (CCS) project on Nov. 30 at the Ferrybridge Power Station
POWER January 2012

14

NTPC Puts Second of Three 500MW Coal Units Online. Indias state-

in West Yorkshire. The 21 million ($33 million) project was built by Swedens Vattenfall, technology supplier Doosan Power Systems, and UK utility SSE, which is also owner and operator of the Ferrybridge coal-fired power plant. The pilot uses an amine solvent to capture about 100 metric tons of carbon dioxide per day from a flue gas slipstream corresponding to 5 MWe. This makes the scale of the project ideal for bridging the gap between the various laboratory-scale trials that are under way and larger-scale demonstration projects, Vattenfall said. owned NTPC groupalso the countrys largest power companyon Nov. 5 inaugurated Unit 2 of the 500-MW Indira Gandhi Super Thermal Project at Jhajjar and said its capacity has now risen to 35,354 MW. The Indira Gandhi project is a 1,500-MW coal-fired plant under development in Haryana State and comprises three units. Unit 1 came online in November 2010; Unit 3 is scheduled to be completed in January 2012. NTPC, set up in 1975, now has 15 coal-fired,

3266 MetFab 4c ad_Layout 1 11/3/11 10:03 AM Page 1

period of only 30 monthsand 20 days ahead of scheduleSiemens Energy on Oct. 21 officially handed over the 870MW Enecogen combined cycle power plant in the Netherlands to a joint venture company created by Dutch utility Eneco and the Danish company DONG Energy. The plant is located in the industrial zone in the port of Rotterdam. It consists of two single-shaft units and attains an efficiency significantly above 59.5%, Siemens claimed. Siemens erected the plant as a turnkey project and supplied two SGT54000F gas turbines, two SST5-5000 steam turbines, two hydrogen-cooled generators, and the entire electrical and SPPA-T3000 instrumentation and control equipment. The plants units are designed for 290 starts per year and reach full load after approximately 50 minutes. In tandem with CO2-free wind

Siemens Hands Over 870-MW Dutch Gas Plant. After a construction

seven gas-fired, and six shared projects across India. Though recently stricken by a critical coal shortage, NTPC said it is working on projects to boost its capacity to 128,000 MW by 2032.

Gassnova and Statoil in November revived the full-scale carbon capture project at the existing Mongstad combined heat and power plant in Norway. Companies selected to participate in the technology qualification program include: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Alstom Carbon Capture GmbH, Siemens AG, Aker Clean Carbon, and Huaneng-CERI Powerspan Joint Venture. The purpose of the technology qualification program is to qualify at least one technology and demonstrate that it can be scaled up. The qualification program will be divided into three phases: a feasibility study, demonstration, and a concept phase for design of full-scale capture. Selection of the final technology could be made as soon as 2014. Norways parliament is expected to review and approve a final investment decision in 2016. Sonal Patel is POWERs senior writer.

Mongstad CCS Technology Bidders Chosen. Norwegian companies

turbines, whose feed-in fluctuates with wind availability, the plant can quickly compensate the required capacity, the company said.

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15

Level Switches Keep Electrostatic Precipitators Online


Measuring the level of dust and fly ash collected in electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) is a very difficult technical problem. At one utility, level switches were so unreliable that operators could not trust their readings because failures were so frequent. When a switch did fail, the precipitator would often clog up, costing the utility up to $100,000 in downtime and repair costs. Recycling Coal Combustion Products Electric power is the primary industry that burns coal. Coal combustion to produce electricity usually yields quantities of noncombustible minerals that require disposal. The coal combustion products that remain after combustion, such as fly ash, bottom ash, and flue gas desulfurization gypsum, have proven to be economical, high-quality raw material feedstock for several other industries. Fly ash is a good example of a potentially valuable and profitable by-product. Fly ash is a powdery material that would fly out of power plant stacks if it were not captured. Today, most modern power plants collect their fly ash to meet environmental regulations, but that fly ash can be profitably recycled. Fly ash is composed primarily of inorganic noncombustible minerals such as

alumina, silica, and iron. It exists as a very finely divided, silt-sized particulate that is removed from combustion gases by using various types of collection equipment, such as ESPs and baghouses. Fly ash is also very abrasive. Bottom ash has a similar chemical composition to fly ash, although the bottom ash is larger, generally ranging in size from sand to gravel. Fly ash can be recycled to produce many materials. For example, it can be used in structural fill and in land development, building materials, and highway construction. Fly ash is also used in metals recovery, the manufacture of agricultural fertilizers, and as plastics filler. Many coal-fired power plants find it profitable to sell coal combustion products to other companies, as it adds to their bottom line, and ESPs are the best way to capture and collect fly ash and related products. Precipitators Remove Fly Ash An ESP is a large, industrial emission control unit that collects and removes dust particles from the exhaust gas stream of a power plant. Cleaned gas then passes out of the ESP and through the stack to the atmosphere. ESPs typically collect 99.9% or more of the dust or fly ash from the gas stream (Figure 1). The ESP functions by placing a positive charge on a system of collecting plates

that are placed directly in the exhaust gas stream. A discharge electrode placed at the inlet of the ESP places a negative charge on the particulates in the gas stream as the gas enters the device. The opposite charge polarity acts like a magnet that pulls the particulates from the gas to the collecting plates. Rappers dislodge the ash from the collecting plates, causing the ash to fall into hoppers below. The dust is removed by a conveyor system for disposal or recycling (Figure 2). Automating the operation of an ESP is a complex but necessary requirement for the entire air quality control system to operate efficiently. For the ESP, an essential control element is measuring the level of fly ash collected in the hoppers. The selection of the right level switch is critical, especially if the precipitator has multiple hoppers. Level Measurement Problems At one coal-fired power plant in the Midwest, the failure of an older-design point level device resulted in damage to a precipitator that cost $100,000 to repair not counting lost electricity production, which is often worth several times the cost of repairs. The plant had been using old and unreliable capacitance probes that often produced nuisance trips. Plant operators soon did not trust the level control information the devices were supposed to be providing. The low reliability of these older technology devices was probably a result of high temperatures, insufficient surface area on

1. Dust collection device. The electrostatic precipitator (ESP) removes dust and ash from the exhaust products of a coal combustion process and drops the material into hoppers below. One of the challenges in operating an ESP is measuring the level of fly ash in the hot collection hoppers. Source: Endress+Hauser

2. Many ESP options.

DeNox system

Flue gas desulfurization Electrostatic precipitator

There are many sizes, types, and designs of ESP Selection . of the right device is determined by the ash and dust characteristics and the gas volume treated, among the many other design requirements. Very large power plants may have multiple ESPs for each unit or may use a single ESP for two units. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser

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POWER January 2012

the probe for the low dielectric constant, inability of the devices to withstand the physical rigors of the application, or some combination of these reasons. After considering its control device options, the utility installed an Endress+Hauser FTI77 level switch (Figure 3) on the precipitator to replace the failed capacitance sensor. The installation was so successful that the utility is planning to install two FTI77 switches on all 16 of its precipitators. For this application, a level switch that is designed for point level detection at high temperatures in bulk solids, similar to that found in the ESP hoppers, is the best choice. Another good feature is the switchs active buildup compensation that detects and compensates when fly ash

accumulates around the probe, facilitat- occur, eliminating the possibility of any ing safe switching. This level switch can static electricity discharges. also withstand a maximum load or lateral When installing point level sensors, stress of up to 590 ft-lb, making it suit- users must be concerned about space able for fly ash hopper applications. It limitations. Most precipitator hoppers also has a sword probe instead of a round are grouped tightly together with limited probe, which increases the surface area clearance. This switch requires that probes of capacitance, improving performance in be a minimum of 20 inches apart. The low dielectric applications, such as fly ash threaded coupling should be as short as level measurement. Additionally, the de- possible, because condensation or product sign prohibits fly ash from entering the build-up can adversely affect operation in PM_USA_MultiDisc_11,58_19,05.qxp:Layout 1 27.06.2011 (Figure 4). electronics housing should probe damage a long-threaded coupling 12:06 Uhr Seite 1

3. Well-designed switch. The FTI77 level switch is ideal for precipitators, because it works in high temperatures and has a compensation circuit for ash buildup on the sensor. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser

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4. Level switch installed. A typical installation of a solids level switch in a fly ash hopper. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser

High temperatures can occur in a fly ash hopper, so users must insulate the external wall to prevent exceeding the maximum temperature of the sensor housing. Heat insulation also prevents condensation from forming. The sensor should not be placed directly under the

filling point; instead, it should be installed to the side, where it will not be subject to direct impacts. In July 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the CrossState Air Pollution Rule, which requires 27 states to significantly improve air quality by reducing power plant emissions that contribute to particle pollution in other states. This new rule will require many existing coal-burning power plants to upgrade their air quality control systems. Many plants will add an ESP to improve fly ash collection and reduce particulate emissions. Those precipitators will work well, provided the hoppers dont clog up because the wrong level sensor was installed. Ravi Jethra (ravi.jethra@us.endress. com) is power and energy business manager and Keith Riley is level product manager for Endress+Hauser Inc.

Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users Group Formed

dedicated to the safe and efficient use of PRB coal. POWER, the groups media sponsor, has reported on the PRBCUGs annual meetings, which are colocated with the ELECTRIC POWER Conference & Exhibition each year. POWER also reports annually on the groups coal plant of the year award. For 2011, in the large plant category the award went to Kansas City Power & Lights Iatan Unit 2 (see our August 2011 issue); the small plant category winner, Muscatine Power & Water, is profiled in this issue, beginning on page 56. Members discuss and trade insights concerning the safe and efficient handling and burning of PRB coal during their three-and-a-half-day annual meeting. Another goal of the group is to educate future users about the peculiarities of PRB coal. The multi-day forum is highly interactive and designed to network peers so that industry lessons learned are shared. Today, the typical PRBCUG annual meeting will have about 400 attendees. Linking SBC Users North America is not the only region where subbituminous coal (SBC) is available. In fact, many coal-fired power plants in Asia

Over the past 11 years, the Powder River Basin Coal Users Group (PRBCUG) has grown to become the voice of North American generating companies that are

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18

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POWER January 2012

5. ASBC inaugural meeting. The first annual meeting of the Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users Group was held November 1 and 2, 2011,
in Hong Kong. For more information on the next meeting, visit www.asiansbcusers.com. Source: POWER

are or wish to become users of SBC, such as that found in Indonesia, for the same reasons as North American users: lower NOx and SO2 emissions levels. To begin a discussion of how to handle SBC coals in other parts of the world, POWER and the PRBCUG, acting as the lead conference organizers, cooperated to bring more than 200 Asian SBC users together for two days in early November

at Hong Kongs Harbour Grand Hotel for the inaugural meeting of the Asian SubBituminous Coal Users Group (ASBC, Figure 5). The founding members of the ASBC are the major users of SBC in Asia: CLP Group (a Hong Kong electric company with plants in Asia and Australia); Hong Kong Electric Co., Ltd. (HK Electric); Taiwan Power Co.; Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd.; and

Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB, the largest electric utility in Malaysia). A Steering Council, represented by senior management of the ASBC founding members and one representative from the PRBCUG executive committee, is providing leadership and direction for the group. S.S. Yuen, director of operations for HK Electric (ASBC co-host with CLP Power) called the first meeting a landmark

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event for Asian companies that use SBC coal to produce electricity. In Asia, we notice that a number of coal-fired power stations, like the founding members of this Asian SBC Users Group, have been increasing their consumption of subbituminous coals due to its low sulfur and low ash content properties, which have positive impacts on emissions, Yuen said in his opening comments to the conference. However, there are some concerns over the operational risks of using SBC. Being responsible operators, we shall all look for best practices in the industry and keep pace with the latest technology development in the uses of SBC. In this context, we fully support that an SBC users group should be formed in the Asia region to promote the safe, efficient, and economic use of subbituminous coals. The Asian SBC Users Group will definitely be an excellent forum for all Asian operators to learn from each other through a web-based forum and annual meetings. Yuen then identified the decade of work by the PRBCUG to develop procedures for ensuring safe and efficient use of SBC, and the groups willingness to share lessons learned, as key reasons the ASBC was formed. I was told by my colleagues who had participated in the last two conference meetings in Baltimore and Chicago that the conference meetings were very good and useful. Our colleagues were very impressed with the presentations made by the participants who selflessly shared their experiences in handling subbituminous coals, especially during the session for teachable moments. Most of the participants would agree that they were not alone in having bitter experiences in handling subbituminous coal, and they could learn from other generating companies which had taken preventive measures proactively to tackle the problems. I am sure that the good tradition of PRB Coal Users Group will be passed on to the Asian SBC Users Group, and the Asian experiences would also be beneficial to the PRB Coal Users Group in the years to come. Paul Poon, chief operating officer of conference cosponsor CLP Power, also expressed his great interest in forming the ASBC because there are many users located across the Pacific Rim that fire the lowsulfur coal. The group was formed this year with the aim of providing a forum for sharing technical and operational experience amongst Asian power utilities, he
20

Condenser Life Cycle Seminar


The November issue of POWER featured a special section titled Condenser Life Cycle. That set of four articles covered topics including condenser performance, operation and maintenance (O&M), failure mechanisms, and retubingtopics you will surely find useful at some time in your career. The authors of those four articles work for companies that are part of a coalition that sponsors the annual Condenser Life Cycle Seminar. Unfortunately, a notice about the next seminar was omitted from the first article. If you are interested in details about the selection or O&M of steam surface condensers, then the 2012 Condenser Life Cycle Seminar is for you. The conferencescheduled for Feb. 1315, 2012, at the Hilton Palacio del Rio in San Antonio, Texasis the place to meet and interact with condenser specialists and get realworld answers to your tough condenser questions. For more information, visit www.condenserseminar.com.

said. Currently, we have major subbituminous coal users from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia. The group serves as a platform to promote safe handling, storage, and use of subbituminous coal, which is becoming more popular because of environmental concerns. Poon also noted the technical challenges facing CLP Power and the other companies represented at the conference when making a switch to SBC. When switching to subbituminous coal at a plant not originally designed for it, enhancement or retrofits may be needed. The first thing is to improve the coal-handling system because subbituminous coal is prone to spontaneous combustion and is dusty. Preventively, we can provide more fire and coal dust control equipment in our system. Proactively, we can strengthen the coal plant housekeeping and use fuel additives to suppress the spontaneous combustion. Good Technical Content Presenters at the inaugural ASBC meeting included members of the PRBCUG and those working with SBC in Asia. For example, Jasper Tan, manager of coal storage and supply for Taiwan Power Co., presented The Role of Sub-Bituminous Coal in the Operation of Taichung Power Plant. He discussed the fuel supply system for his 10-unit coal-fired plant with a nameplate of 5,500 MW that supplies about 20% of TPCs total generation. The 2.3 million metric ton coal pile is also large scale, covering 170 acres. The plant has been slowly ramping up its use of SBC over the past few years. Tan discussed both challenges (such as air heater plugging) and successes (including lower NOx and SO2 emissions) experiwww.powermag.com

enced during the plants long-term fuel upgrade program. Other presentations included Lamma Power Station Units 4 & 5 Improvement of Boiler Performance and Emission in 2010 by Hong Kong Electric Co., Ltd. and Experience in Retrofitting Fire and Dust Control Equipment for Coal Unloading Equipment by CLP. The former presentation discussed the low-NOx burners, mills, and boiler control upgrades added to the plant in order to burn SBC. CLPs presentation included two detailed case studies that described the utilitys extensive coalhandling system upgrades made to accommodate SBC. Second Meeting Planned The ASBC Steering Council is now setting the date and location for the second annual ASBC meeting. Meeting information will soon be posted on the groups website, www.asiansbcusers.com. Contributed by Vice President and POWER Publisher Brian Nessen.

Marmaduke Award Trophy Presented

The 2011 Marmaduke Award winner was CTG Universidad, a two-unit combustion turbine plant built in the early 1970s in Monterrey, Mexico. The award was made to the plant in recognition of its upgrade of one 14-MW unit to operate as a synchronous condenser, thus relaxing power restrictions caused by a lack of sufficient reactive power production in the north of the city. More reactive power production by this urban plant also allows delivery of more power produced by efficient combined cycle plants located outside the city, because it reduces the amount of reactive power that must be moved over transmission lines.
POWER January 2012

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Uniting All Segments of the Offshore Renewable Energy Industry


9TH ANNUAL

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June 19-21, 2012

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wind | wave | tidal | current | thermal | solar | hybrids

6. Talented and dedicated staff. The

staff of CTG Universidad and other CFE employees who were responsible for the success of the project pose on the plants Unit 1 combustion turbine floor with POWERs editor-in-chief and publisher. Courtesy: CFE

7. Trophy presentation. At the trophy presentation (left to right): CFE executives Eugenio Garca Macas, Lino Crdenas Villarreal, Alejandro Salazar Abraham, and Luis Alberto Rojo Garca; Vice President and POWER Publisher Brian Nessen and Editor-in-Chief Robert Peltier; and CFEs Luis Gonzalo Murrietta Rivera. Courtesy: SSS Clutch Co., Inc.

Details of how the combustion turbine was repurposed and saved from shutdown and can be found in CFE Extends CTG Universidad Unit 2s Life with Conversion to Synchronous Condenser, in our August 2011 issue or the archives at www.powermag.com. Editor-in-Chief Dr. Robert Peltier and Vice President and POWER Publisher Brian Nessen visited CTG Universidad on November 5 to present the Marma-

duke Award trophy to the plant staff (Figure 6) and to Comisin Federal de Electricidad executives who supported the project (Figure 7). Our thanks to CFE for their hospitality and for making our visit to their plant a memorable experience.

Correction
In Siemens Releases ShapingPower Option for Renewables Integration (December 2011), the Figure 3 callouts for wind and solar were reversed. POWER regrets the error. A corrected version can be found in the online version of the article.

Maintaining existing utilities today, for a cleaner future tomorrow.


Fluor Corporation is one of the worlds largest publicly traded engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance (EPC&M), and project management companies. Fluors Power Group is an industry leader in providing state-of-the-art power generation facilities for clients globally. We are engaged across all power markets providing new build, operating plant modification, and operations and maintenance support for nuclear, renewables, gas-fueled, solid-fueled, and environmental compliance projects. Our Power Services team excels in operations, maintenance, construction, capital improvements, environmental and particulate control retrofits, and transmission and distribution services to all markets in the power generating industry. When power performance matters, trust Fluor to maintain your fleet.

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23

Steven F Greenwald .

Jeffrey P Gray .

Green Technology = Green Jobs?


By Steven F. Greenwald and Jeffrey P. Gray
However, there is no reason that these employment gains will be in geographic areas proximate to the renewable generation. Nothing unique about the production of components for renewable power facilities dictates that they be produced within our shores. The U.S. will attract and retain jobs for producing wind turbines and solar panels based on the same economically competitive circumstances that make the country attractive or unattractive for the production of silicon chips and cell phones. The fact that a job is created by the green economy will not, by itself, overcome the cost, educational, and regulatory impediments that are inhibiting domestic employment in other technological areas. Sound energy policy is critical to enhancing employment opportunities. Production facilities are increasingly energy-intensive and ever-more dependent on enhanced electric reliability. Our ability to provide reliable energy at competitive prices must be a critical component of any jobs policy. While ideally, in the long term, renewable energy will be a positive contributor to these necessary goals, in the short term, the transition to renewable energy is likely to increase prices and present system operators with unprecedented challenges to maintaining reliability. In 1973, President Richard Nixon launched Project Independence with the objective that, by 1980, the nation could meet Americas energy needs from Americas own energy resources. However, the ensuing decades have demonstrated that achieving such energy objectives demands difficult trade-offs among cost, reliability, environmental, and safety objectives. These dynamics have frustrated our governmental entities in their efforts to implement sustained, integrated, and consistent energy initiatives. Adding jobs promotion as another piece of the energy policy puzzle injects a largely irrelevant, but highly political, distraction. Renewable energy must remain an indispensable element of our nations energy policy and future. We should not expose future generations to the long-term geopolitical and environmental costs of remaining a fossil fueldependent society. Green economy proponents, however, should understand that promoting renewable energy as an effective means to combat double-digit unemploymentwhile politically expedient to enact legislation and win electionsis a risky and inherently short-term strategy. Any inability of renewable power to generate the promised employment growth will be seized by competing politicians to challenge the entire concept of renewable power. Renewable energy is simply too important to be reduced to just another vacuous political slogan. Renewable power advocates would do better to remember Commissioner Simons teaching: Renewable energy is not a religion. The multiplicity of economic and environmental benefits that renewable power offers as a fuel choice, independent of illusory promises of green jobs, warrant that it remain the critical building block of our nations energy future. Steven F. Greenwald (stevegreenwald@dwt.com) and Jeffrey P. Gray (jeffgray@dwt.com) are partners in the Davis Wright Tremaine LLP Energy Practice Group.
POWER January 2012

n discussing implementation by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) of Californias new renewable energy law, CPUC Commissioner Timothy Alan Simon urged consideration of the economic, technical, and political consequences of the CPUCs actions: Renewable energy is a fuel sourceits not a religion. The promotion of renewable energy remains critical, but as Commissioner Simon admonishes, public policy and investments advancing renewable energy must be based on sound economics and physics rather than religious incantations. Searching for solutions to our nations persistent and unacceptable levels of unemployment, political, labor, and environmental leaders have religiously embraced the easily accepted, but unproven, assertion that taxpayer investments in a green economy create green jobs. President Barack Obama emphasized the creation of green jobs in executing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Governor Jerry Brown similarly promised that the California renewable legislation mandate for green technologies would create tens of thousands of new jobs. California regulators have discriminated against out-of-state renewable resources, rationalizing that such exclusionary practices will promote in-state green jobs. The BlueGreen Alliance, a partnership of labor unions and environmental organizations dedicated to expanding . . . jobs in the green economy, reported that ARRAs green investments as of year-end 2010 had created or saved nearly 1 million jobs.

The Energy Industry Is Capital Intensive

Promises and claims of green job creation ignore the fundamental economics of the energy industry. Regardless of the fuel selected to generate power, energy production is capital, not labor, intensive. The fuel choice has negligible impact on the employment consequences of a new power plant. Construction of a renewable power plant creates construction jobs and the associated multiplier effects in the local economy. However, these benefits are transitory and largely undistinguishable from the short-term stimulus any large-scale infrastructure project, such as restoration of highway bridges or the strengthening of levees, provides. Moreover, green power plants offer only a minute number of long-term employment opportunities. Modern generating facilities, particularly those using renewable resources, can exploit the most advanced technologies with the intent to lower costs by reducing the number of operators. Wind and solar projects can essentially eliminate any labor requirements related to fuel supply. If the objective of energy policy is job creation, we should prioritize new oil and natural gas pipelines, whose construction lasts many years, and nuclear power plants, where safety concerns and associated regulations dictate certain levels of redundant employees.

The Green Economy Will Promote Technology Jobs

The commercial growth of renewable power will serve as a catalyst for employment in the development and manufacturing of the technological and physical components of generating facilities.
24

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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST

U.S. Confronts Pipeline Gaps While Europe Juggles Renewables and Debt
U.S. optimism has been restored by reports of abundant, reasonably priced natural gas to fuel most new generation; however, huge gaps in the fuel delivery system (thousands of miles of pipelines are needed) will soon challenge gas plant development. Meanwhile, the cloud of sovereign debt hangs over all major capital projects in Europe, where the UK moves ahead with new nuclear projects while many of its neighbors shut the door on nuclear and struggle to finance their commitment to renewables.
By Kennedy Maize, Charles Butcher, and Dr. Robert Peltier, PE
ts the economy, stupid. That pungent phrase coined by legendary politico James Carville guided the successful 1992 presidential campaign of Bill Clinton. Today, 20 years later, Carvilles dictum might well serve as the guidepost for another presidential campaign and for the nations energy future. In the past four years, the U.S. has seen an uneven recovery from a deep recession to no or extremely slow growth, with 2011 shaping up as a disappointing year, but one with real economic growth. Goldman Sachs Inc. has estimated 2011s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at a rather anemic 1.5%. Thirdquarter GDP growth was just 1%, and Goldman predicted the final quarter will be only slightly higher. Electricity production growth for the year looks to be a meager 0.3%. The shape of the economy for 2012 is unclear, although few economists predict boom times. Last summer, the great fear was a steep decline in the economy, a doubledip recession, with a return to the economic downturn of 20072008. Wall Street odds makers were pegging the chances of a double dipper at about 35%. However, that has not happened, and anxiety about a return to recession has receded. In November 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth through 2013 but did not predict economic decline ahead, only more slow growth. As a result, the Fed said it would take no new steps to stimulate growth in the worlds largest economy. The U.S. central bank predicted economic growth of 2.5% to 2.9% in 2012, considerably below its 3.3% to 3.7% forecast in June last year. Private forecasters are also predicting slow but positive economic growth for the U.S. economy. JP Morgan is pegging growth at 0.5% for the first quarter of 2012. Citigroup is projecting 2012 GDP will increase by 2.1%.
26

Defining Our Times


The National Bureau of Economic Research, the recorder of U.S. economic growth, defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. In concrete terms, the generally accepted rule of thumb for a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. In a recent survey of 39 economists by USA Today, only one predicted a drop in GDP in any of the coming five quarters. Recession is not our base case, but you have to consider other outcomes, investment analyst Janney Montgomery Scott told the newspaper. Last April, in its Annual Energy Outlook, the Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (DOEs IEA) noted that 2010 economic growth partially offset the decline in 2009. The EIAs best estimate of 2011 economic growth was 2.7%; its low estimate was just over 2%, and its high case was over 3.0%. Since then, the EIA has scaled back its growth assumptions even further. In its September short-term outlook, the statistical agency said it is now assuming that U.S. real gross domestic product grows by 1.5 percent this year [2011] and 1.9 percent next year. The EIA notes that the economy drives energy use: Energy consumption per capita declined from 337 million Btu in 2007 to 308 million Btu in 2009, the lowest level since 1967. In the [Annual Energy Outlook 2011] Reference case, energy use per capita increases slightly through 2013, as the economy recovers from the 20082009 economic downturn. Many economists posit a direct relationship between economic growth and the growth in demand for electric power. Although the one-to-one relationship that characterized earlier periods no longer exists, it does seem to be the case that more economic activity
www.powermag.com

demands more electric power. The current conventional wisdom is that a percentage increase in economic growth yields an increase in electric demand of roughly 0.6%. Demand growth has real consequences in the electricity business. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), for example, is justifying its decision to resume work on the long-mothballed Bellefonte nuclear plant with an estimated long-term growth in regional electric demand of around 1%. If the economy continues slow growth during the next several years, or if a double-dip recession occurs, TVAs Bellefonte decision could be costly to the regions electric customers. A recent Nashville Tennessean article noted that the Electric Power Research Institute is projecting annual long-term electricity demand growth thats only half what TVA projects. The notion of a lock-step relationship between economic growth and electric demand has skeptics. One is Jim Rogers, the long-time industry executive now in charge of North Carolinas Duke Energy. Rogers told an industry conference recently that the past 50 years trend of economic growth driving electric sales growth is changing. Rogers said at the Edison Electric Institutes financial conference in Orlando in November that structural changes in the U.S. economy are altering the relationship between the economy and electricity. I do not see the manufacturing base coming back. Our economy is becoming less energy intensive, by 3% each year, he said (Figure 1). Due to slow economic growth and recent changes in the economy and the electricity industry, the overall capacity of the electricity system in the U.S. and Canada is in good shape, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC). NERCs 2011 summer estimate, for example, found a 25.1% reserve margin in the U.S. and a 35.9% margin in Canada.
POWER January 2012

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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


The EIA notes that summer 2011 was somewhat warmer than usual, with cooling degreedays through August about 2.8% higher than the same period in 2010. That put no real strain on the U.S. power system, except in Texas, whose grid is isolated from the rest of the country, where a prolonged heat wave and drought caused some outages and voltage reductions. For 2012, the EIA says it expects total consumption of electricity to shrink by 0.6%, compared to projected 0.3% growth for 2011 (Figure 2). If electricity demand continues to grow slowly in the future as it has for the past few years, then the NERC assessment of reserve margins seems to be spot on. The weak link, according to NERCs 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment of system reliability, consists of recent and expected Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory actions. NERC believes the EPAs regulatory onslaught will cause a significant number of coal-fired plant closures (see sidebar NERC Points Finger at EPA for Risking System Reliability). nounced plant retirements, and the Sierra Club claimed victory! over 153 coal projects in the U.S., up from 123 such claims last year. The environmental group got a major boost for its Beyond Coal campaign when New Yorks billionaire Republican mayor Michael Bloomberg announced a commitment of $50 million of his personal fortune over four years to the project. Michael Brune, the clubs executive director, pronounced the gift a game changer, from our perspective. Thats likely an overstatement. Its hard to see how an environmental group, even as well-funded as the Sierra Club, can have much influence on the future of coal beyond the margins. Its really about the economy and continuing changes in fuel markets that make natural gas, not coal, the fuel of choice for most new generation. The DOEs National Energy Technology Laboratory coal power plant database tracks the continuing decline in new coal plant activity, reflecting the soft economy. At the end of 2010, the latest period for which the agency has reliable data, 12 coal-fired electric generating plants were under construction in the U.S., down from 22 the year before. That represents a decline of 6,135 MW, down from 13,755 MW in 2010 to 7,619 MW in 2011. As we noted last year, the coal plant pipeline is emptying, and the EIA projects a gradual decline in coals share of the generating market, falling from 48% in 2011 to 45% in 2035, so the Sierra Clubs celebration may be premature by decades (Figure 4). Fewer new plants are entering the construction queue and more are closing down. Last year American Electric Power announced it would shutter some 6,000 MW of coal capacity. As noted by Industrial Info Resources, Duke Energy, Southern Co., Louisville Gas and Electric Co., and Luminant have also announced major closures. These constitute the Sierra Clubs claimed victories. Many of the shuttered plants are small and antiquated, kept alive, according to some commentators, mostly to serve as allowancegenerators if cap-and-trade environmental legislation had become a reality. Once it became clear that cap-and-trade was deadand-buried, there was little incentive to keep inefficient, elderly coal plants alive. In fact, the DOE, through the EIA, is standing firm with its estimate that new EPA regulations governing the operation of coalfired plants will cause only 8.8 GW of plant closures in its base case analysis in the coming years. That small number of closures is inconsistent with the large number of analyses performed by independent organizations that have concluded that around 50 GW are in jeopardy (Figure 5). (Also see The Future of Coal in the May 2011 issue of POWER in
POWER January 2012

Coal Under Siege


The year 2011 ended with coal in seeming decline. Utilities across the coal belt an-

1. Electricity consumption is fairly flat. Total U.S. electricity consumption grew only 0.3% in 2011, and the EIA expects 2012 electricity consumption to decrease by 0.6% compared to 2011. Last year, the EIA predicted that electricity growth would be stagnant in 2011 and then resume long-term growth of about 1.5% per year. Historical data show that from 2000 to 2009, demand grew by 0.5% per year. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
11 Consumption 10.642 10.678 10.611

10

9 8% 6% 4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% 2% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 2% 4% 4.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6% Annual growth 4.7%

2. Future electricity growth is flat. The EIA predicts that electricity growth will be a negative 0.6% during 2012 but will recover and grow at 1% per year in following years. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
12 10 History Projections

Electricity demand increase (%)

3-year moving average 8 6 Trend line 4 2 0 2 1950

1970

1990

2012 2020
www.powermag.com

2035

Percentage change from previous year

Billion kWh/day

28

2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


our archives at www.powermag.com.) Even Energy Secretary Steven Chu said, Were going to see massive retirements within the next five, eight years. In fact, more than 8 GW of coal-fired plant closures have been announced just during the past 12 months. In announcing coal plant retirements, the utilities uniformly blamed prospective federal environmental rules, particularly the EPAs pending Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR). Dallas-based Luminant, the largest electric generator in the Lone Star State, said last fall that its decision to shut two coal-fired plants and derate two others was entirely driven by the CSAPR. A study by National Economic Research Associates claimed that the EPA rule will cause electric rates to spike by as much as 23% and cost the country 1.4 million jobs by 2020. The CSAPR is just one of a battery of coal-centric regulations that the EPA is considering, including air toxics, ozone, and coal ash controls. Together, they could represent a major challenge to the nations cheapest fossil fuel. But there are reasons to treat the regulatory threat with at least a grain of salt. Last September, Exelons top lobbyist, Joseph Dominguez, said the utility industry can absorb the new rules without major disruptions. The rules have been in the works for about a decade and the electric utility industry is well-positioned to respond, with more than 60% of coal-fired power plants already equipped with pollution control, he said. A Vectran official earlier said his company could also meet the terms of the cross-state rule with little difficulty. An August report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) said that utility industry warnings of a regulatory train wreck for coal are overblown. The primary impacts of

NERC Points Finger at EPA for Risking System Reliability


The North American Electric Reliability Corp. downward trend is characteristic of these need for reserve capacity to support variable (NERC) is required to provide an assessment projections as the early years provide more generation. In short, ERCOT cannot rely on of the reliability and adequacy of the bulk certainty since new generation is either its wind resources to cover peak demand (only power system of North America each year in-service or under construction with firm 8.7% of installed wind capacity is predicted to Congress. The much-anticipated 2011 commitments. In later years, there is less to be available to cover on-peak demand), Long-Term Reliability Assessment arrived certainty about the resources that will be and more gas-fired plants will be required to chase wind generation (Figure 3). in late November and did not mince words needed to meet peak demand. NERC predicts that the NERC-wide summer when discussing the impact of the Environpeak demand growth for 2011 will be only mental Protection Agencys back-to-back- Except in ERCOT to-back regulatory attack on the nations NERC suggests that this downward trend 1.27% (11.7 GW), the lowest since NERC beelectric supply: One of the greatest risks may be reflecting the industrys uncertain- gan producing its long-term assessments in identified by the NERC Planning Committee ty in project plans for replacement capac- 1967. NERC is predicting only 1.23% growth (high likelihood, high consequence), is the ity due to retiring generation and overall in peak demand for 2012. Growth in firm capacity will be principally gas-fired, propotential impacts of future environmental cautiousness of generation developers. The exception to the rule seems to be the jected at much higher levels than in past regulations. The report notes that, While some environ- Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), 10-year forecasts (about 47 GW concepmental regulations have been finalized (i.e., where the reserve margin decreased 15 per- tual and 45 GW planned), while net coal Cross-State Air Pollution Rule), others such as centage points during the past year and 20 capacity is projected to decline over the 10the Cooling Water Intake Structures and the points since 2008. NERC concluded that More year period by about 8 GW. The complete 559-page report is available Air Toxics Standards for Utilities have not yet resources will be needed in Texas to support been finalized. The latter two proposed rules projected peak demand, potentially signifi- at http://www.nerc.com/files/2011LTRA_ have been identified as having a potentially cant generator retirements, and an increased Final.pdf. higher impact for electric reliability, causing significant generator retirements and a tight 3. Future fuel mix. ERCOT isnt the only area where wind and solar generation is expected to increase in the next 10 years. The largest change in the fuel mix is the increase compliance schedule. in wind and solar, offsetting lost coal capacity and balanced by a slight increase in gas

Supplies Are Adequate


When discussing long-term resource adequacy, NERC concluded that, In general, long-term planning (beyond five years) is inherently uncertain due to, among other things, varying market practices and regulatory conditions, such as environmental regulations. However, the report also notes that the slow economic recovery over the past two years has produced higher planning reserve margin projections in the latter years of the assessment period. In fact, NERC found that through 2021, reserve margins remain well above the 15% reference level, although the trend is downward. This

generation. Source: NERC, 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2011 Other renewable resources 4.3% Oil 4.7% Nuclear 10.4% Gas 37.7% Hydro 12.9% Hydro 12.4% 2021 Other renewable resources 7.6% Oil 4.2% Nuclear 10.1% Gas 38.5%

Coal 30%

Coal 27.1%

January 2012 POWER

www.powermag.com

29

2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


4. Coal use drops in 2012. Coal consumption in 2011 was up slightly over the prior year
but is expected to drop in 2012. Data are presented as a percent change from the previous year. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011 Total consumption Electric power sector Retail and general industry Coke plants Forecast 30%

project and possibly purchase the Ameren plant as the site for FutureGen 2.0.

Gassed-Up
Last year, as he surveyed the generating landscape, industry veteran John Rowe, outgoing Exelon chief, predicted that coal will remain King. Rowe added, Gas will be Queen. Unlimited Gas Supplies. Indeed, gas is poised to gain generating market share through all of 2012, and well beyond. As our Global Gas Glut report (Sept. 2011) demonstrated, the combination of an old oil industry technology, hydraulic fracturing, and a new, directional drilling technology has turned natural gas into a truly revolutionary force in generation. Gas, which until about five years ago was regarded as a diminishing resource, now seems capable of fueling the U.S. energy economy on a scale only previously claimed for coal. Fracking and horizontal wells have made it possible to produce gas cheaply in many areas of the U.S., even close to population centers and industrial markets. How much shale gas is available? The figures are astonishing. Both the DOEs EIA and the Interior Departments U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have produced astounding resource estimates. Last year, the EIA estimated the amount of inferred reserves in the Marcellus Formation in the Mid-Atlantic states at 410 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The Marcelluswhich underlies major portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginiais just one of a half-dozen major shale gas formations. The USGS estimated undiscovered resources of shale gas in the Marcellus at 84 Tcf. Both estimates are more than 10 times previous agency predictions about the prevalence of shale gas. The two figures are not in conflict, despite some hyperbolic press reports to the contrary; instead, they are additive. According to an analysis by the nonpartisan Washington environmental think tank Resources for the Future, In theory, as the 84 Tcf becomes discovered and evaluated, some of the estimate will be added to the amount of inferred reserves. Overall, the EIA now estimates total U.S. natural gas reserves at 2,552 Tcf, with shale gas constituting 827 Tcf. Prior to 2005, shale gas made up only about 4% of U.S. production. By 2010, that figure had risen to 23% the energy forecasting agency says. Between 2006 and 2010, shale gas production grew by 48% annually, according to the EIA. Estimates of growth in shale gas production are uniformly bullish. By 2035, the EIA predicts that gas from shale formations will make up half of U.S. gas production. However, there are issues that remain unsolved, including how to move this new gas from where it can be accessed to where it will be used, given the scarPOWER January 2012

40%

U.S. coal consumption growth (percentage change from previous year)

20% 10% 0
1.2%1.6%

1.7% 1.2% 4.2%4.6% 1.7% 1.7%

10% 20% 30%

2009

2010

2011

2012

5. Comparison of predicted capacity retired due to new EPA regulations.


Many organizations have prepared predictions of the amount of coal-fired generation expected to be lost as a result of the EPAs recent regulatory measures. The strict and moderate cases reflect different assumptions about the final rules. Source: The Committee on Energy and Commerce, Hearing on The American Energy Initiative, September 12, 2011 Moderate 90 80 70 Strict

Capacity (GW)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

FE R rn ste C (O ER in ) Re se ar M ch .J. Cr Br ad edit ley Su iss & e As so cia te IN s GA A/ NE IC FI RC nt er na tio na l

Ci ti

EL

I/A Br EP at tle R Gr Ca ou pit p al M ar ke ts FB

NR

Be

many of the rules, said the CRS, will largely be on coal-fired plants more than 40 years old that have not, until now, installed stateof-the-art pollution controls. Many of these plants are inefficient and are being replaced by more efficient combined cycle natural gas plants, a development likely to be encouraged if the price of competing fuelnatural gascontinues to be low, almost regardless of EPA rules. The unstable U.S. economy has also complicated development of advanced coal-fired technologies, notably the on-again, off-again FutureGen project aimed at demonstrating
30

capture and storage of carbon dioxide from coal combustion. First announced by the Bush administration in 2003, the project has faced a series of obstacles. Most recently, Ameren, the utility that would host the project, said in mid-November that its shaky financial condition means it cant continue with the project. According to The New York Times, Ameren told its partners it cant go forward, even with $1 billion in federal subsidies in hand, and has decided to withdraw from the project and retire the 200-MW Unit 4 at its Meredosia plant in Illinois. Meanwhile, the FutureGen Alliance has pledged to move forward on the
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6. Natural gas prices to remain stable. The EIA predicts a very slight increase in average natural gas prices during 2012. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011. Residential price Henry Hub spot price Composite wellhead price Forecast

25

Dollars per thousand cubic feet

20

15

10

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

7. Natural gas usage growth continues. The use of natural gas grew in 2011, and growth is expected to continue in 2012. Gas use for electric power is expected to grow the most in 2012. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011.
Electric power Residential and commercial Industrial Total consumption Consumption forecast Other

Lines: Total consumption (billion cubic ft/day)

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5


2009 2010 2011 2012

city of available pipelines (see Transporting New Natural Gas Supplies, next page). How best to use these new natural gas resources is another subject of hot debate. Along with the large resource projections, analysts note that gas prices are likely to remain stable (Figure 6). The great abundance of gas means growing demand is unlikely to put pressure on prices anytime soon. Shale gas producers such as Chesapeake Energy are routinely offering generators 10-year fuel supply contracts at stable prices (Figure 7). Shale gas is often found with crude oil, as in the Bakken Formation in North Dakota, or with natural gas liquids in the Marcellus shale. Those higher-value commodities mean that the breakeven cost for natural gas has fallen to zero, further insulation against gas price volatility, according to an analysis by
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the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Recent figures from the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) demonstrate the newfound stability of natural gas prices. Between 2008 and 2010, in the teeth of a major worldwide recession, the GSCI doubled. But gas prices were flat, as gas is now isolated from external forces that have driven its price in the past, such as the price of crude oil. Another Layer of Regulation. This gas supply celebration, however, is about to be crashed by an EPA and DOE that are bound and determined to pile federal regulations on top of state oversight that will surely throttle future shale gas development. One of the more serious criticisms of using fracking technology to reach natural gas hidden a mile or more below the surface is that the chemicals used in the process contaminate nearby
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Bars: usage, change from prior year (%)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40

water wells, usually reaching no more than a few hundred feet deep. During testimony before the U.S. House Oversight Committee in late May 2011, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson responded to questions about the safety of fracking by saying, Im not aware of any proven case where the fracking process itself has affected water. A study by Duke University researchers released in May also found no confirmed cases of an underground source of drinking water contaminated as a result of a hydraulic fracturing operation. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 exempted fracking from EPA regulations under the Safe Drinking Water Act, shifting that regulatory responsibility to the individual states. Even so, the EPA, in 2010, began a study on the relationship between hydraulic fracturing and drinking water, apparently looking for alternative means to regulate the shale gas extraction industry. That search seems to have been productive. In late October, the EPA announced plans to develop natural gas well wastewater standards. In late November, the EPA announced plants to initiate a dialogue process to seek public input on a set of reporting requirements on the fluids used for fracking, not the mud, under the Toxic Substances Control Act. At the same time, a consortium of state regulators and industry stakeholders called FracFocus is busy developing a set of voluntary chemical reporting standards, while the FRAC Act, introduced in both the Senate and House, would add another layer of federal oversight to the state regulation of gas wells. Finally, a number of environmental organizations have asked the EPA to regulate each well by developing greenhouse gas emission standards for gas wells. A final note about U.S. gas supplies: Offshore oil and gas production is quickly declining, not because of well depletion but because of federal government policies. Today, only 2.2% of offshore areas available for lease have been leased for oil and natural gas production. Overall, oil and natural gas production on federal lands has declined by 40% since 2000, and sharply since 2003. The good news is that oil and natural gas production has increased on private and state lands over the same period. For example, North Dakota oil production has increased 250% over the past decade. It is no coincidence that North Dakota has the lowest unemployment and fastest job growth rate (twice that of Texas) in the U.S.

The Death of the Nuclear Renaissance


The much-anticipated reflowering of the U.S. nuclear industry in 2011 turned into a wake instead, and the sector is likely to remain dead in 2012.
POWER January 2012

2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


When Congress passed the Energy Policy Act in 2005, the premise was that some simple federal supportloan guarantees, special tax considerations, and the likewould give the nuclear generating business a bit of government oomph needed to get the industry building new nuclear plants. The concept behind the legislation was that the industry only needed a modest boost to overcome financial obstacles. The U.S. would then see a rebirth of a proven generating technology that has seen little new construction activity in more than 30 years. The crux of the case for new nuclear was that conditions were ripe for rebirth with some midwifery from Uncle Sam. The case for new nukes seemed compelling. Low fuel costs and the absence of greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear would overcome the new plants high capital costs. It seemed, in the famous words of a former CIA director in another context, a slam dunk. But a few untoward events intervened: the arrival of cheap, plentiful natural gas; collapsing debt markets and a stumbling world economy that reduced electricity demand; and an earthquake and tsunami in Japan. For 2012, the story of nuclear power, at least in the developed world, looks like a rerun of the 1993 box office hit Groundhog Day. Today, only one new nuclear plant is under construction in the U.S. That plant, the TVAs Watts Bar Unit 2, is a restart of a project the giant, government-affiliated power agency mothballed in the 1980s. The Watts Bar project is already behind schedule and over budget, according to the TVA. The utilitys board has approved restarting another stalled project, its Bellefonte unit, but has yet to get a green light from federal regulators. Southern Company, with a conditional $8 billion federal loan guarantee in place, insists it will go forward with its Vogtle station expansion but needs Wall Street to sign on before the feds will release the guarantee. Southern CEO Tom Fanning recently told Fortune magazine that his company is committed to going ahead with the two new units at Vogtle and has the size and deep pockets to afford its $6.4 billion (46%) share of the project. Southern has said it plans to build the project even if Washington bails out of it. But Atlanta-based Southern is now the only company in the queue for the federal governments nuclear power plant loan guarantees.

Transporting New Natural Gas Supplies


In our national exuberance over possibly a century of natural gas supply reserves within the continental U.S., we have overlooked one small detail: How will all this new natural gas be moved from well to point of use? To environmentalists, natural gas is a bridge fuel to a future dominated by renewable energy sources, where the cost of electricity is secondary. To the electric power industry, electricity produced by abundant quantities of reasonably priced natural gas is the path to stable electricity prices that advantage U.S. manufacturers in the global market. Already, a number of utilities have either repowered or replaced existing coalfired plants with modern, high-efficiency combined cycle plants to reduce emissions and eliminate the other undesirable sideeffects of coal-fired electricity. However, this fuel displacement process will take time and cost hundreds of billions of dollars before it is completed. At that time, natural gas will become a staple fuel, not a milepost on the way to an exclusively renewable energy future. adequate capacity to move gas from the field to the plant. The American Public Power Association (APPA) recently commissioned a report that explored the costs and risks of building additional natural gas pipelines to supply these newly built or repowered gasfired plants. The report, Implications of Greater Reliance on Natural Gas for Electricity Generation (available at www.publicpower .org), explored several scenarios, including one where all existing coal-fired generation is replaced with gas plants (thereby avoiding many transmission issues). The current demand for natural gas in the U.S. is about 23 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year, only slightly higher than the 1972 peak of 22 Tcf. If the U.S. were to convert all 335 GW of coal-fired capacity (at an assumed 72% capacity factor) to more efficient natural gas plants, then U.S. natural gas demand would rise to about 37 Tcf, a 50% increase or 14 Tcf (38 Bcf per day), in 2030, when the conversions were estimated to be completed. The EIA base case assumes only a 2 Tcf increase for new gas-fired plants in 2030, for comparison. five of those eight are close to 90%. Using the existing pipeline usage figures and the expected gas demand for the fullswitch scenario, we can estimate the cost of the needed new gas transmission pipelines. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, a trade organization that represents natural gas pipeline companies, estimated in a recent report that moving 25 Bcfd of natural gas will require 38,000 miles of new pipeline and associated compression equipment stations, at a cost of about $129 billion. For our purposes, that cost would increase about 50% for the 38 Bcfd required for a complete fuel switchsay 55,000 miles of pipeline and $200 billion. To the cost of the new pipeline, the cost of the new gas-fired plants must be added, approximately $335 billion (at $1,000/kW installed), and the cost of new gas storage and gathering facilitiesaccording to the APPA study, about $55 billion. In sum, the cost of converting the entire fleet of coal-fired plants to natural gas would be about $590 billion. One last point: Natural gas pipeline work is alive and well in the U.S. Between 1990 and 2008, pipeline to carry about 53 Bcfd was put in the ground. From 2008 through 2010, almost 8,500 miles of gas pipeline were installed. The cost of pipeline construction is well defined, and cost-recovery mechanisms are set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. In fact, it appears that building gas pipelines to natural gas repowered coal plants may well be quicker and cheaper than building new transmission lines.

Consider Coal-to-Gas Conversions


The costs of building new, high-efficiency gas-fired combined cycle plants are well understood and pose little regulatory, performance, or completion risk to a company building them. Another advantage is that these plants can be built, at a small loss in efficiency, to sip water and produce almost no waste products. There is very little not to like about a gas-fired combined cycle plant. However, industry will soon be challenged by a lack of natural gas supply pipelines with

Cost of Conversions
In the U.S., about 60 Bcf of gas move through 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines each day. Roughly half of those pipelines were built during the past 40 years. The APPA study concluded that, under the full-switch scenario, 21 states would have insufficient pipeline capacity to support the switch. In fact, eight of the 30 largest interstate pipelines currently have load factors greater than 80%, and

January 2012 POWER

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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


The two other major seekers after Washingtons largessNRG and Constellation Energyhave dropped out. Chicago-based Exelon, the nations largest nuclear generator with 17 units, and would-be acquirer of Constellation, does not share Southerns passion for new nuclear plants. CEO John Rowe told reporters in November that reviving Constellations plan to add a new unit at the Calvert Cliffs site is almost inconceivable. The Calvert Cliffs project, Rowe said, is utterly uneconomic. Lucas Davis, an analyst for Resources for the Future, predicts a grim future for nuclear new build in the U.S. In a recent paper, he lays out the economic case against nuclear that Rowe has perceived. Even excluding financing costs, he writes, current estimates of construction costs show that nuclear is substantially more expensive than coal and natural gas. A recent U.S. Department of Energy study reports overnight costs for nuclear of $5,300 per kilowatt, versus $2,800 for coal and $1,000 for natural gas. This study was completed just before the Fukushima crisis and thus does not incorporate any cost increases due to closer regulatory scrutiny. since 1999, due to high levels of precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, but hydro is expected to return to normal levels in 2012, offsetting the growth of wind power (Figure 8). According to many analysts, that growth is almost entirely a result of government policies, including state-driven generating mandates and federal and state tax subsidies. Again this year, the renewable energy industry will marshal its forces to try to convince Congress that renewing the goodies that keep the self-proclaimed green power growing is good for the nation. The extension of energy tax benefits has become an annual event in Washington energy politics. Key elements of the federal subsidy, major drivers of the growth, are the production tax credit and the 1603 Treasury Grant program. The tax credit provides a deduction of 2.3 cents/kWh for projects in production. The 1603 program allows developers to take their presumed tax credits up front in cash. Greentech Media notes, This tax bill reduction can be transferred to investors. Wall Street and other players still raking in the big bucks despite the floundering economy are willing to buy into wind projects to get those tax credits. But the renewable subsidies have been a sometimes thing. Congress has let the production tax credit expire, if only briefly, three times in the past decade. Renewable lobbying groups have pushed for years for multi-year extension of the tax credits, without much success. As this article was written, the 1603 program was due to expire by the end 2011, with little prospect of renewal. The production tax credit expires at the end of 2012, and the lobbying is already gearing up for a four-year extension. The renewable industries are pegging their pitch to jobs. Denise Bode of the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) said in a recent press release, Wind energy means 75,000 jobs across the U.S. today and could support 500,000 American jobs across the country in manufacturing, construction, engineering, development and other fields less than 20 years from now according to a U.S. Department of Energy study. Upon closer inspection, the wind manufacturing jobs claims put forward by Bode are not supported by the facts. According to a recent CRS report, U.S. Wind Turbine Manufacturing: Federal Support for an Emerging Industry, released in September 2011, the jobs created by the wind industry remained flat during the past three years, at an estimated 20,000 total jobs. More interestingly, the report shows that the majority the 75,000 jobs cited by AWEA are in finance and consulting services, contracting and engineering services, and transportation and logistics all temporary jobs. In 2010, according to the report, a total of 3,500 jobs were in construction and only 4,000 permanent jobs were in plant operations and maintenance. Will future wind projects add more manufacturing jobs, as AWEA claims? That depends on whether developers buy turbines in the U.S. or elect to purchase from lower-cost manufacturers in South Korea, China, or other countries.

Which Way Will Wind Blow?


With gas gaining speed while coal and nuclear development is becalmed, how are renewables faring? The future looks much like the past: Live by the government or die by the government. While renewables (including hydro) make up only about 10% of total U.S. electric generation380 billion kWh out of a total 3,779 billion kWh, according to the EIAthey have seen solid growth over the past decade, and theres more to come, albeit from a small base. Wind power will grow about 22% during 2011, but growth in 2012 is expected to drop to about 13% because the production tax credits are expected to expire at the end of 2012. Hydro power was up 23% in 2011, the highest level

Industry Recombinations
With the economy continuing to lag and equity and credit markets showing great swings, merger and acquisition activity slowed considerably in the third quarter of 2011, according to a report from accounting and consulting firm PwC US. The third quarter saw nine deals, with a total value of $50 milliona nearrecord low for the three-month period ending September 30. During the same period in 2010, PwC said there were 14 deals worth a total of $10.9 billion. For 2011, the deals were fewer and smaller than in past years. John McConomy of PwC said, A noticeable absence of large strategic buyers in the third quarter resulted, in part, from uncertainty around the fate of regulated transactions, causing dealmakers to focus on closings and successful integration of deals announced throughout the first

8. Few new plant builds. According to EIA data, virtually all of the new plants installed in 2011 were either gas-fired or renewable, principally wind. For 2012, that trend continues; the lost coal capacity is replaced by gas-fired plants. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
Coal 12,000 10,000 8,000 53.0% 51.9% 51.6% 50.9% 50.3% 50.0% 46.1% 46.6% 45.4% 44.0% Natural gas Petroleum Nuclear Hydropower Renewables Other sources Forecast

The Top Stories of 2011


What 2011 industry stories did POWER editorial staff members think were the most important? To find out, visit our web site, www.powermag.com. Youll find our lists, with links to coverage in POWER-branded publications, in the web-only story titled Top Five Power Industry Stories of 2011 under the Web Exclusives header on our home page and associated with the archives for this Jan. 2012 issue.

GWh/day

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 17.5% 18.6% 19.5% 20.9% 22.4% 22.2% 24.2% 24.7% 24.9% 25.9%

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POWER January 2012

Westinghouse AP1000
Online in 2013
Westinghouse AP1000 Sanmen Unit 1, under construction and on schedule.

e Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant is the most advanced design available in the global marketplace for active and emerging plants. Designed to be more than 200 times safer than United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission requirements, the AP1000 plant is able to withstand the most extreme events making it the leading technology of choice around the world. In China, four new AP1000 plants are currently under construction and are being built with the highest standards in safety and quality, with the rst scheduled to come online in 2013. In the United States, the AP1000 design has been selected for more than half of the new plants announced, including the only six for which engineering, procurement and construction contracts have been signed. Westinghouse nuclear technology will help provide future generations with safe, clean and reliable electricity. Check us out at www.westinghousenuclear.com

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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Grading My 2011 Industry Projections


Last year in this forecasting article, I graded the industry predictions I made a year earlier in my Speaking of Power editorial. The positive response I received for doing so was unexpected, so Ill stick my neck out again. You may recall that, overall, I gave myself a B+ last year, hitting several predictions square and whiffing a couple more. Heres how I rate my 2011 predictions. 10. Electricity Use Remains Flat. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that electricity usage would see an increase of up to 4.7% in 2011, rebounding from the economic slowdown and returning to 2007 levels. I predicted that electricity usage would remain flat from 2010 through 2011 because the stimulus funds would only push the economic pain into 2011. Using EIA year-to-date data, consumption is up only 0.3% for the year through August (the latest available). Thats flat consumption, so I get an A. 9. Wind Power Projects Are Becalmed. I predicted that, despite the lobbying muscle of the American Wind Energy Association, there would be no serious movement toward establishing a national renewable portfolio standard in 2011. In fact, how much have you heard recently about President Obamas proposed Clean Energy Standard, which was floated during his State of the Union address in January 2011? Both standards are dead and buried, and I get an A. 8. New Plant Construction Is Mostly Gas. I predicted that perhaps 8 GW to 10 GW of new natural gasfired capacity would be built to replace coal and chase nondispatchable renewables, such as wind and solar. EIA data shows that 9.988 GW of gas-fired net summer capacity should come online in 2011, although only part-year data is available. I couldnt make this up if I wanted to. I get an A. 7. Fracking for Gas Causes a Backlash. I predicted that the fracking controversy would mushroom in 2011 to the point that it would stall drilling new unconventional gas fields. In 2011, the controversy hasnt progressed that far, but it is heating up. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is pushing ahead on establishing gas well water treatment standards, and the Department of Energys Shale Gas Subcommittee in August called on the EPA to establish limits on methane emissions and issued a lengthy set of recommendations for state and federal agencies and the gas industry. The EPA has set April 3 to release new environmental standards for fracking wells. The issue is simmering but hasnt mushroomed, yet. I get a C for predicting the trend. 6. The EPA Grades Wet Ash. I predicted that the EPA would grade wet ash from power plants as non-hazardous in 2011. Given the EPAs rather full regulatory calendar, coal ash rules that were expected this summer were delayed until next summer. I get an incomplete. 5. Utilities Lose Interest in Biomass Conversions. I predicted that the high market price of electricity from utility-scale biomass projects would kill existing and stall new projects. The only utility-scale projects under construction in the U.S. I could find are the 100-MW Nacogdoches Generating Facility, owned by Southern Company and located in eastern Texas, scheduled to begin testing in 2012, and the 100-MW American Renewables Gainesville Renewable Energy Center, Gainesville, Fla, which is expected to enter service in 2013. Both will use bubbling bed circulating fluidized bed boiler technology. As evidence of lost interest in conversions, NRG Energy cancelled its cofiring project at Big Cajun II because of poor crop yields, and a 24-MW project in Snowflake, Ariz., went bankrupt when the plant wouldnt perform. Otherwise, no new U.S. coal-to-biomass projects began construction in 2011. However, the UKs 750-MW RWE npower project that burns wood pellets is scheduled to begin operation in December 2011, and Canada has several active projects. I was right in the U.S. but wrong about other countries. I get a B. 4. Economics Come First. I suggested that very expensive integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plantssuch as the $3.5 billion Taylorville IGCC project in upstate Illinois that was all but dead in early 2011 but revived the last day of November 2011wouldnt pass public utility commission review in the future. Another boondoggle project: the $1.6 billion FutureGen 2.0, which remains shaky without Ameren. Then there is Duke Powers Edwardsport IGCC project, where costs have spiraled out of control to $3 billion for the 630-MW plant. In October, the company asked the utility commission for permission to pass along the overruns to its customers; permission will likely be denied. I get a B+ for this prediction. 3. The Smart Grid Gets Personal. I predicted that 2011 would be the year utilities built customer enthusiasm for smart grid technologies. An EPRI report entitled Consumer Engagement: Facts, Myths & Motivations found that consumers have not been adequately engaged, even though they will pay for and derive the benefits from the upgrades. For some utilities, most of the consumer engagement seems to be focused on advanced meters under the imprimatur of smart grid. In my opinion, the jury is still out on this prediction, so I score another incomplete. 2. Nuclear Steps Forward. Optimistically, I predicted that the U.S. would double the number of projects under construction during 2011. The only new project being built in the U.S. remains the two-unit Plant Vogtle located in eastern Georgia. Unfortunately, a slow-to-arrive combined operating license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is said to have delayed startup of the first unit by as much as five months, from April to September 2016. The rest of the U.S. nuclear industry is sitting on the sidelines, so I get a D. 1. The War on Coal Continues. Consider the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for Utilities pushed through in 2011 followed by the politically unpopular but delayed Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Rules plus the Coal Combustion Residuals and Cooling Water Intake Structures rules that are scheduled for release in 2012. Need I say more? I get an easy A. Like last year, I grade my overall predictions as a B+ with a couple of incompletes that will flow over into 2012. I have also prepared my predictions for 2012 in this months Speaking of Power, hoping for a better report card in 2012. Your comments are always appreciated. Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWERs editor-in-chief.

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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


half of the year. Stock price volatility and debt concerns also contributed to deal slowdown in the third quarter and we believe many in-process and contemplated deals are being deferred until the capital markets settle down. Its also possible that business fission may replace corporate fusion in the days ahead. Following a trend evident in the oil business, Dynegy last August split asunder, spinning off separate coal-fired and gas-fired businesses from the Houston-based merchant generating company. The move came during a nasty battle over the companys future between two groups of corporate raiders: Blackstone Group and legendary investor Carl Icahn and Seneca Capital. According to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, the idea was to protect the companys hard assets as the raiders battled over the corporate entity, with Icahn and Seneca ultimately emerging victorious, although owing substantial debt. Then, in early November, after another set of complex transactions involving the debt of the coal-generating spinoff, Dynegy filed for bankruptcy protection. In the latest ploy, said the newspaper, Dynegy is trying to force its unsecured creditors to play lets-make-a-deal. And if the creditors dont play ball they will be buying a showdown with Dynegy, Icahn and Seneca with about $4 billion on the line. The Journals account concluded that Dynegys structural game was complex and convoluted enough to make Rube Goldberg proud. the European Climate Foundation environmental think tank said recently, institutional investors are not part of the climate conversation. Steve Holliday, CEO of British grid operator National Grid, warned last year that consumption patterns would have to change drastically by 2020 or 2030 as the share of renewables increases. He may have been talking about relatively painless demand management via a smart grid, but his comments have been widely taken to mean that the UK will face blackouts. In September 2011, the commission said it wanted to monitor all energy deals between EU governments and third countries, with a long-term aim of negotiating energy deals on behalf of the EU. When you see that some 60% of natural gas is imported from third countries and as far as oil is concerned 80% . . . its perfectly clear that the success of any energy policy depends on a successful EU common external energy policy, said EU Energy Commissioner Gnther Oettinger. The EU also seems to be following the UKs lead in specific measures to kick-start new power plant construction. According to David Buchan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the Commissions new proposals on permitting and financing acknowledge that market forces by themselves will not lay the foundations of low-carbon energy on time. Under the new rules proposed last Octoberthough they are a long way from being accepted by EU governmentsnational planning authorities would have to process applications for European projects of common interest in less than three years (half the current average time) and give increased weight to the climate-change benefits of infrastructure such as pylons (transmission towers) and wind turbines. The Commission also proposes to use EU money to leverage private-sector finance for infrastructure projects, such as through insurance via project bonds from the European Investment Bank.

Coming to Grips with European Energy Policies


Europes proposed decarbonization is the most massive energy program ever proposed anywhere in the world outside wartime conditions, consultant Andrew MacKillop wrote recently in European Energy Review. Mandatory carbon trading has not significantly reduced emissions, he added, and energy market liberalization has not brought the hoped-for benefits. Michel Cruciani of the Centre of Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials at Paris-Dauphine University, agrees. He claims in a study published in November 2011 by the Institut Franais des Relations Internationales that liberalization has done little to lower European energy costs. In fact, he suggested, the process may have increased costs by creating regulatory uncertainty. In 2010, the UK market regulator Ofgem said: There is an increasing consensus that leaving the present system of market arrangements and other incentives unchanged is not an option. The British government got the message, because in July 2011 it unveiled proposals to reform the countrys energy market and so make available the 200 billion ($317 billion) the UK needs to invest in the next 10 to 15 years, with nuclear and offshore wind as the priorities. Key to the UK proposal are a carbon price floor; long-term contracts for low-carbon electricity; an emissions standard of 450 g CO2/ kWh to permit gas-fired generation but disallow coal without carbon capture and sequestration (CCS); and a capacity mechanism, including demand response, to ensure adequate future electricity supplies. In November, however, several UK power executives said the proposals were unclear and that the carbon price floor would not work.

The European Outlook


In Europe, too, money was tight in 2011, as it promises to be in 2012. Previous budget crises in Spain and Ireland were bad enough, but now dire economic conditions in Greece and Italy threaten the very stability of the euro and the 17 nations that use it as their currency. Prospects in many of the other 10 European Union (EU) member states are not great either. So money to invest in new power plants and grid upgrades is hard to find, yet a great deal of capacity needs to be added soon. The UK, for instance, will by 2018 have lost 6 GW of aging nuclear capacity and 11 GW of old coal and oil plants that must close under EU anti-pollution rules because they do not have flue gas desulfurization equipment. By 2022, Germany will have shut all 17 of the nuclear plants that historically provided nearly one-quarter of that countrys energy. The European Commission is sticking doggedly to its plan to fill the gap with renewables: The target for 2020 remains 20% emissions reductions, 20% renewables, and 20% energy savings. However, many commentators believe that the lack of firm lower-level policies has helped to create an investment climate in which not even gas-fired plants can be built fast enough, let alone clean coal, new nuclear, wind, or solar. As
January 2012 POWER

European CCS Plans Collapse


Some coal-burning nations, including the UK and Poland, will be hit hard by the EUs 2015 closure deadline for power plants unwilling to invest in modern SOx, NOx, and particulate emissions controls. Germany, meanwhile, relies heavily on coal and so might logically choose this fuel to replace the nuclear capacity it is closing. Yet in carbon-conscious Europe, significant new coal capacity seems unlikely, even if it were to include CCS. In May 2011, news agency Reuters listed 15 proposed coal projects in Germany that are facing significant public opposition. In Scotland, a record 20,000 people have attacked a plan by Peel Energy to build a 1.8-GW coal plant with biomass cofiring at Hunterston. Short-term CCS plans in Europe are now looking as unpromising as they are in the U.S.notwithstanding a proposal for a Europe-wide pipeline network, 22,000 kilometers long and costing 50 billion, to carry 1.2 billion tons/year of CO2 by 2050. Hunterston is one of the UKs few remaining CCS prospects, because its demonstrationscale CCS systeminitially covering 20% of the plants outputwould be funded by the European Investment Bank. All hopes of a CCS demonstrator funded by the UK government, on
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Wanted: One Voice for Europe


The EU too has decided it needs a stronger energy policy. Beyond its ambitious environmental targets, the EU does not control the generating mix within each member state, but it is often criticized for not speaking with one voice on international energy deals notably, bilateral deals between Russia and individual EU members.
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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST


the other hand, have now collapsed. The latest failure came in October, when ScottishPower, National Grid, and Shell UK abandoned their plan to decarbonize one-sixth of the output of the 2.4-GW Longannet plant in Scotland. What was probably the worlds most commercially advanced CCS project fell apart over arguments about the future price of decarbonized power and the risk of cost overruns. many would phase out nuclear by 2020. Not until 2010 did it grant a reprieve based on the impossibility of meeting CO2 emissions targets without nuclear help. What was a shock was the decision not to restart the seven oldest reactors shut down immediately after Fukushima. Despite Germanys strong investment in renewables, critics say that this decision is likely to increase both carbon emissions and imports of nuclear power from neighboring France and the Czech Republic. Utilities including E.ON and RWE accept the decision but are demanding compensation, and Siemens is pulling out of nuclear engineering. Italy has abandoned plans to restart its mothballed nuclear program, and Switzerland has said it will not replace its five nuclear plants once they reach the end of their lives, between 2019 and 2034. Belgium has conditionally agreed to phase out nuclear between 2015 and 2025. France remains committed to new nuclear, though the new Franco-German EPR units being built at Flamanville in France and Olkiluoto in Finland continue to suffer serious delays, construction quality problems, and huge cost overruns. Olkiluoto 3 is now planned to start up at the end of 2014 (originally November 2011); Flamanville is now due to start generating in 2016. Despite much time-wasting, the UK, too, remains politically committed to new nuclear. In November, a proposed plant to be built by EDF at the existing Hinkley Point nuclear site for startup around 2020 formally began the planning process. Other planned UK plants to be built by RWE and E.ON may fall victim to Germanys loss of enthusiasm for nuclear, however. Lithuania and Poland are also planning new nuclear capacity. Swedish reactors at Oskarshamn and Ringhals, both operated by Vattenfall, shut down temporarily last year following two separate fire incidents. In light of the serious fire at Ringhals, the second since 2006, Swedens nuclear safety authority threatened to withdraw the plants operating license. offshore capacity by that date is not unreasonable, considering that Scotland has a quarter of Europes total wind resource. Finding enough engineering capacity could, however, be a barrier to expansion. Apart from the need to manufacture the turbines themselves, offshore wind depends on a small number of specialist installation vessels. And transmission grid operator TenneT says it is struggling to cope with the demands of hooking up nine offshore wind farms in Germany. As always, money is a key issue. In November, the Dutch government decided that subsidizing wind power was too expensive and cut feed-in tariffs (FITs) to 50% to 85% of their former values. At that rate, the EWEAs optimistic outlook for the Netherlands is unlikely to become reality. The UK government has said it will continue to support offshore wind as long as the costs come down: The target reduction is from the current 190/MWh ($295/MWh) to 100/MWh by 2020. One way to cut the cost of offshore wind is to build bigger turbines. In the past year manufacturers including Vestas, Siemens, Enercon, Gamesa, Alstom, and Sinovel have all announced wind turbines in the range of 5 MW to 7.5 MW. Another way to improve economics is to create a production-line approach, says Anders Eldrup, CEO of Dong Energy, the current leader in offshore wind capacity. In an interview with European Energy Review, Eldrup said that firm partnerships with supplierssuch as ordering 500 Siemens wind turbines at a timeare allowing his company to escape the current project-by-project approach. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power, meanwhile, could realistically provide up to 12% of Europes electricity by 2020 and reach grid parity as early as 2013, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA). The EU is the worlds largest PV market, with almost 30 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2010 and around 16 GW added in 2011. By far the largest share of PV is in Germany, showing that relatively cloudy countries with well-managed FITs can perform better than sunnier nations with less-stable subsidy regimes, notes Reinhold Buttgereit, EPIA secretary general. For several years Germanys FITs have declined steadily, in line with the falling costs of solar. The UK, in contrast, is proposing drastic FIT cuts of more than 50% for installations below 50 kWwhich threaten to strangle the countrys solar industry at birth.

Better Prospects for Gas in Europe


For gas the news is brighter, at least on paper. In the UK, for example, power projects receiving planning consent during 2011 were dominated in capacity terms by around 6.5 GW of gas-fired combined cycles, with another 5.5 GW currently awaiting consent. How much of this capacity materializes is another matter. Shale gas continues to promise much, especially in Poland. In November, Polish gas monopoly PGNiG said it could have up to 32 Tcf of shale gas at its 15 licenses. Chevron is the latest company to start shale gas drilling in Poland, joining others, including ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, and BNK Petroleum. France, which potentially has large shale gas reserves, has a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, that does not look likely to be rescinded any time soon. In the UK, public opinion was not improved by an admission that two barely perceptible earth tremors (magnitudes 2.3 and 1.5, respectively) near the town of Blackpool were probably caused by fracking. The company involved, Cuadrilla Resources, estimates that it has discovered reserves of around 200 Tcf. Even if only a small fraction of this can be recovered, it would exceed the 9 Tcf estimated to remain in the UK sector of the North Sea. Shale gas is a decade away from reducing Europes dependence on gas imports from Russia, which is continuing with its ambitious Nord Stream and South Stream pipeline projects. The first of Nord Streams two pipelines was commissioned in November. Meanwhile, Wintershall and EDF have joined the consortium for South Stream, due to come on stream after 2015. The EUs rival Nabucco pipeline, on the other hand, is making good progress politically but is not well supported by the big European energy companies.

European Renewables Remain Promising, Despite Subsidy Cuts


European renewable energy projects, notably offshore wind and solar, continue to look as promising as the tough financial conditions allow. The European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) forecasts around 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2020, including 8 GW in Germany, 4 GW in France, 4.5 GW to 6 GW in the Netherlands, and 13 GW to 20 GW in the UK. The most ambitious plan comes from Scotland, whose parliament says it wants 100% of its electricity consumption to come from renewables by 2020. The plan to add up to 5 GW of
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No Unity on Nuclear
Nuclear power is one issue on which Brussels will never be able to control national decisions. The big news was Germanys decision to close all of its 17 reactors by 2022, in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi crisis in Japan. In one sense this was no surprise. German public opinion is strongly anti-nuclear, and in 2000 the government ruled that Ger38

Kennedy Maize is a POWER contributing editor and executive editor of MANAGING POWER. Charles Butcher (charles@ thiswritingbusiness.com) is a UK freelance writer specializing in the energy and chemical industries. Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWERs editor-in-chief.
POWER January 2012

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RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

EPRI Bridges Industry R&D Gaps


The technologies used to generate and distribute electricity will be radically transformed during the coming decade. Amid that change, the power industry must continue to meet customer reliability, safety, and cost-ofservice expectations. Achieving the right balance among these oftenconflicting goals is the primary focus of every utility. The Electric Power Research Institute is helping utilities achieve that balance with R&D programs for many new and emerging technologies.
By Arshad Mansoor, Electric Power Research Institute
he Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is an independent research and development (R&D) organization focused on solving the power industrys most challenging technology, system reliability, environmental, and safety problems. In addition, EPRI provides direction and research support for emerging technologies of interest to the industry. EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity produced in the U.S., and international membership extends to 40 countries. EPRIs goal is to develop a comprehensive visionbroadly shared within the electricity sector, as well as by its stakeholdersof the innovations necessary to realize the industrys opportunities and develop a comprehensive plan to overcome the associated challenges. EPRI is working closely with more than 1,400 industry and public advisors and its Board of Directors to bring that vision to life. It has identified six key innovation and research paths that address both the opportunities for and challenges to the continued delivery of reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity: Long-Term Operations, Near-Zero Emissions, Renewable Resources and Integration, Water Resource Management, Energy Efficiency (End-to-End), and the Smart Grid. Included in the discussion below of each category are descriptions of several interesting projects and a short project status report.

current fossil generation and T&D assets is essential to achieving a stable transition to a future electricity supply system.
Protect Nuclear Plants from Cyber Attack. In 2010, various media outlets reported

Long-Term Operations
Long-term operations (LTO) research seeks to maximize the substantial value of existing generation, transmission, and distribution (T&D) assets. Obtaining the maximum operational lifetime from current assets will provide an essential economic buffer in the utility planning process. For example, high capacity factors and low operating costs make nuclear power plants some of the most economical, reliable, and environmentally responsible power generators available. Similarly, reliable, long-term performance of
40

that a computer worm called Stuxnetdesigned to hijack control systemshad infected an Iranian nuclear fuel enrichment facility. This potential vulnerability highlights the need for more safeguards as nuclear plants replace old analog electronics-based instrumentation and control (I&C) systems with programmable digital systems. In October 2010, EPRI released a cyber security guideline that will help nuclear plant managers ensure that new digital systems comply with federal regulations designed to keep nuclear reactors safe from cyber attacks. Cyber security is not a new concern. In the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) mandated that nuclear power plants consider cyber security threats that could expose the public to radiation. The NRC also requires nuclear plants to maintain grid reliability. Therefore, the EPRI guideline also addresses systems that, if hacked, dont directly pose a radiological risk, such as balance-of-plant control systems. EPRIs cyber security guideline provides procedures for implementing cyber security controls in 138 different areas, from passwords and wireless connections to encryption and intrusion detection. The document also provides four increasingly complex examples of how to apply the procedures in an operating nuclear plant. The examples range from a simple, firmware-based programmable relay without digital connections to other systems to a main turbine generator control system with digital assets both in the control room and on the turbine floor. Although demonstrating compliance with all controls requires extensive documentation, many controls can be addressed with existing plant programs such as the design change process and configuration management program. Plant owners and operators who incorporate cyber security into the design process early can make
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the final assessment of digital systems a much simpler process. Because a variety of cyber security recommendations already exist, instead of developing controls and procedures from scratch, EPRI researchers built on existing guidance. The EPRI guideline can help plant managers prepare for that assessment and ensure a reliable transition to new digital I&C systems. This year, the team will release a training module outlining how to use the guidelines. The training will provide a brief, multimedia overview of the guidelines and procedures. Monitor Equipment Health. EPRI has established proof of concept on the use of transient analysis methods for detecting indicators of performance degradation and incipient failure in electric motors and pumps before traditional online monitoring techniques can detect such degradation. Ongoing research is creating a generic methodology for health monitoring during startup and other transients to enhance prognostics, condition-based maintenance, and failure prevention for power plant equipment. Initial development is focused on electric motors, with field testing scheduled for 2012. Current equipment-monitoring techniques, including advanced pattern recognition, continuously process steady-state sensor data to look for anomalies that may represent precursors of degradation, aging, and failure. However, components often dont fail during steady-state operation, but during startup, load change, and shutdown cycles, when they are under more stress. Traditional monitoring techniques cannot easily detect anomalies during transient operation. In 2010, EPRI initiated exploratory research to determine whether certain failure precursors may be stronger and more easily detectedduring transients as opposed to during normal conditions. EPRI assessed existing mathematical methods and algorithms that could be adapted to transient analysis for a variety of high-value components, such as electric motors, electric pumps, and steam turbine generators. Then,
POWER January 2012

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


in proof-of-concept work at the University of Tennessee, data collected during previous runto-failure tests of electric motors were analyzed using transient feature extraction techniques. The EPRI study identified key transient data, including electrical, speed, and vibration signals, and developed prototype prognostic models. Notably, aging-related changes and performance degradation not detectable in highspeed motors under steady-state conditions were shown to be clearly evident in startup data. As a result, pertinent insights on remaining useful life and time to failure were available sooner than is possible using conventional methods. Current EPRI research is creating transient analysis methods and models for online monitoring using real-time operating data from laboratory-scale motors and pumps. Once the methods are developed and host plants are identified, field testing of the transient analysis toolkit will begin in 2012 on full-scale, in-service components. Commercial vendors are expected to apply this novel prognostic approach to improve anomaly detection and remaining life assessment for a range of power generation and delivery system components. Laser Welding for Nuclear Repairs. As nuclear reactors age, more neutrons are generated, and transmutation of elements occurs in the reactor internals and reactor pressure vessel. This increased neutron flux gradually increases the helium level in reactor internal components and reduces the materials weldability via helium-induced cracking. The extent of cracking is heavily dependent on the heat input used for welding. One area susceptible to such cracking is the riser brace attachment in boiling water reactors. Conventional arc welding techniques typically are not viable for repairing such components because their high heat input (millions of watts) would result in too much heating of the base metal. In contrast, laser welding, which operates at energy levels of only about 800 watts, provides the precise heat input control needed to avoid helium-induced cracking and excessive weld metal dilution. In addition, solid state laser technology is particularly promising for repairing reactor internals because it can be delivered to remote locations via optical fiber. EPRI has been evaluating laser welding for several years, and for a variety of applications. Initial research focused on weld overlay of cracked components. Utility interest ultimately led to the first known application of laser technology in a nuclear setting: Eskoms Koeberg plant in South Africa used laser welding in 2010 to mitigate through-wall cracking in an outdoor stainless steel storage tank. In early 2011, EPRIs Welding and Repair Technology Center acquired and installed a 2-kW fiber laser system. A fiber laser is a compact, high-powered device that delivers a laser beam through an optical fiber, providing focused energy control. An essential element of the research program will be to demonstrate the ability of laser welding to successfully repair irradiated material samples. Although EPRI can do much of the research to assess the process viability of the laser welding approach, full commercial viability can only be obtained using irradiated materials from a test reactor. EPRI is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to evaluate a hybrid laser welding process for repairing highly irradiated materials under EPRIs Long-Term Operations Program and the DOEs Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. In addition, EPRI and the DOE are constructing a hot cell at Oak Ridge National Laboratory that will perform welding experiments on irradiated materials used to construct reactor internals and vessels. Assess Concrete Integrity. Concrete is a key element in the reliable generation and delivery of electricity, and is found in everything from cooling towers to used fuel storage facilities and transmission infrastructure. The material is generally resistant to aging, becoming stronger over time as it cures. But high temperatures, freeze-and-thaw cycles, and exposure to radiation and chemicals can damage even the sturdiest concrete structures. Not every sign of wear and tear is visible, so EPRI is working to develop tools that can help see flaws deep inside a structure without damaging itso-called nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods. NDE tools exist for other materials, such as metals. However, seeing inside concrete without damaging it is especially difficult because the material is a heterogeneous mix that varies with the composition of the local aggregate used. As
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1. New light shines.

Advanced laser welding techniques are being evaluated by EPRI for repair of cracked nuclear components. Courtesy: EPRI

plants apply to extend their operating licenses beyond 40 years, the need for new tools to test the integrity of dry cask storage containers, used fuel pools, cooling towers, containment buildings, and other structures will grow. Several NDE techniques have already been developed, and EPRI is working to design new ways of detecting and characterizing potential damage. In 2011, EPRI installed fiber-optic strain gauges on some concrete structures at Ginna Nuclear Power Plant in upstate New York to measure real-time strain on the steel cables running through pre-stressed concrete. This included the concrete containment building. Engineers at Ginna periodically pressurize and depressurize the containment building to make sure its not leaking. During the most recent such test, EPRI researchers also measured the strain induced by such tests using digital image correlation. In a separate project, EPRI engineers are examining how radiation can damage concrete in the reactor cavitys walls and vessel supports, which may lead to the development of new NDE techniques to characterize such damage. EPRI will be investigating how corrosive materials such as chlorides and boric acid affect concrete. Boric acid is found in used fuel pools at pressurized water reactors, and chloride damage can come from seawater or other sources. Researchers at the Materials Aging Institute in Francea collaborative R&D institute funded by EPRI, the French utility EDF, and the Japanese utilities Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Kansai Electric Power Co.have already begun looking at the effects of boric acid on concrete. At the same time, the commercial sector is searching for new NDE methods to image voids, cracks, and other internal defects. The most promising techniques will likely be tested in the field in the next five years.

Near-Zero Emissions
The industry must develop technologies capable of obtaining near zero-emissions (NZE) levels for all current and anticipated pollutants, including CO2. Those technologies must be affordable, have minimal impact on unit operations, and be achievable during flexible operations (plant cycling). The R&D challenges to achieving NZE fall into three categories: energy conversion (minimizing emissions in the energy conversion process), environmental controls (capturing emissions during the conversion process), and advanced generation (developing highly efficient, low-emitting power production technologies). Improve Mercury Capture. Working closely with the DOE and the power industry, EPRI has conducted extensive mercury control research. One leading mercury control option is the coincidental capture of mercury by selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and flue gas desulfu41

January 2012 POWER

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


rization (FGD) devices, which are designed to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), respectively. The SCR converts much of the mercury to a soluble oxidized form that is then captured by the FGD. For plants without those emissions controls, injection of fine-powdered activated carbon into the plants flue gas can reduce mercury emissions. The activated carbon captures the mercury and is then collected downstream in the particulate control device along with the plants fly ash. EPRIs field tests and survey of activated carbon injection installations at various plant sites aided understanding of this techniques capabilities, identified potential issues with its implementation and operation, and documented successful mitigation options. The use of commercial activated carbon can cost a power plant millions of dollars each year in carbon cost. EPRI and the Illinois State Geological Survey developed the sorbent activation process, or SAP, which enables power plants to produce activated carbon on site using the coal they are firing. Power plants that produce the activated carbon they need on site can eliminate storage and inventory costs. EPRIs laboratory and field prototype testing showed that the sorbent activation process produced activated carbon comparable to that of commercial sources. Preliminary economic analyses based on these tests predict that SAP can cut the cost of activated carbon by more than half. But cost is just one of the challenges to successful implementation of activated carbon injection. Activated carbon can contaminate fly ash, rendering it unsuitable for use in concrete. In addition, the technology can increase emissions of particulate matter in plants with small electrostatic precipitators. EPRI has developed a technology called TOXECON that addresses these issues. In the TOXECON system, the activated carbon is injected into the flue gas after it passes through the particulate control device. An additional baghouse downstream captures the activated carbon and mercury as well as any fly ash that escapes the primary particulate control. This configuration segregates the ash collected in the primary particulate control device from the carbon collected in the downstream control device. About a dozen power plants have so far adopted this technology.
Develop New High-Temperature Materials. Advanced ultra-supercritical plants have

the potential to reduce fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and flue gas emissions as well as saving utilities money. But the steel alloys typically used to construct steam turbines and boilers arent designed to withstand ultrasupercritical temperatures and pressures. A decade ago, the DOE and the Ohio Coal

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Development Office, together with Energy Industries of Ohio, selected EPRI to be the technical leader of a consortium of U.S. steam turbine and boiler suppliers and national laboratories. The goal was to identify and test alloys that would enable steam turbines and boilers for advanced ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants to operate at 1,400F. Since then, this consortium has tested a number of different alloys that can withstand these harsh conditions. For the steam boiler portion of the project, components of concern are the boiler headers and piping, superheater/reheater tubes, and waterwall panels. The first step was to identify new alloys. The crucial limiting factor of these materials is their inherent creep strength. Creep is the tendency of solid materials to deform when exposed to high temperatures and pressures for long periods. Materials in an advanced ultrasupercritical plant must have a 100,000-hour creep-rupture strength of approximately 14,500 psi or higher. The boiler components must also be able to withstand the corrosive conditions produced by high-sulfur U.S. coals as well as avoid steam-side oxidation and exfoliation. The EPRI-led team of government and industry researchers has identified several nickel-based alloys as promising candidates. They evaluated aspects of the candidate materials in seven areas: mechanical properties, steam-side oxidation, fireside corrosion, welding, fabrication ability, coatings, and changes to current design codes. For steam turbines, the project focused on the highest temperature components in four areas: oxidation and erosion resistance of turbine blades, nonwelded rotor materials, welded rotor materials, and castings. Materials and design philosophy for steam turbines are unique to each manufacturer. Alloys are not subject to code approval and thus may or may not have internationally recognized material standards. The boiler materials development project is scheduled to end in September 2012, and the steam turbine materials development project will end in 2014. As a next step, components made from the most promising alloys will be tested in an operating plant before a commercial-scale 600-MW demonstration plant is constructed.
Develop Laser Sensors to Monitor Emissions. Currently, there are a limited

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number of point measurements of oxygen at the economizer outlet and measurements of NOx across the SCR inlet and outlet. These point measurements are not always representative of the bulk flue gas concentration of the species being monitored and limit the degree of uniformity that could be achieved through process control optimization. Improved paired measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and oxygen (O2) and paired measurements of nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3) in the flue gas of coal-fired boilPOWER January 2012

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


ers have the potential for several benefits. For example, they could enable optimization of the air/fuel distribution to individual burners, thereby enabling lower excess oxygen operation, reduced NOx emissions, and improved unit heat rate. Combined NH3 and NOx measurements could similarly enable optimization of NH3/ NOx distribution at the inlet of an SCR reactor, enabling increased NOx reduction performance while maintaining ammonia slip targets. A recent EPRI-sponsored study designed, lab-tested, and field-tested prototype laserbased sensors for measurement of CO and NO at typical coal-fired boiler flue gas conditions at the economizer outlet. This technology could allow line-of-sight average measurements that are more representative of the bulk flue gas concentration of the species being monitored and improve the degree of uniformity that could be achieved through process control optimization. Prototype absorption sensors for CO and NO in the combustion flue gas at the economizer exit of a coal-fired boiler were designed using the results of fundamental spectroscopy and lessons learned from laboratory experiments. First-generation prototype sensors for CO and NO were constructed, tested in a laboratory, and evaluated in a field measurement campaign on a 300-MW tangential design boiler. The results of this initial proof-of-concept field test campaign were used to design improved, secondgeneration sensors, which were evaluated in the laboratory and then used during a second field measurement campaign at the same facility. An important consideration for practical sensors includes performance over longer path lengths, which would entail additional transmission loss and more absorption, as well as the construction of more robust and optimized sensors. For the CO sensor, higher-power lasers will be essential to ensure sufficient transmission. For remote monitoring in temperaturecontrolled environments, such as monitoring with near-infrared laser systems that use ammonia refrigeration, a more stable, low-loss fiber delivery capability over long distances is desired for the mid-infrared 2.3 m wavelength. For the NO sensor, where quite high-powered lasers are available, a more economical and robust laser at one of the selected wavelengths is needed to reduce the sensor cost.
Measure Low Concentrations of Mercury. It is expected that many coal-fired utilities

mental Research Centers Center for Air Toxic Metals affiliates. Tests were conducted with CMMs manufactured by Tekran and ThermoScientific, which are the two CMMs most widely used by the utility industry. The variability of the instruments was determined and compared to a reference method (Environmental Protection Agency Method 30Bsorbent traps). The tests involved two weeks of firing natural gas and utilizing mercury-spiking systems. Various levels of elemental mercury and mercury (II) chloride were added to the combustor. The tests were repeated, but this time with hydrogen chloride and SO2 being added. For each of the test conditions, at least one set of four sorbent trap samples was taken simultaneously. For the third week, an Illinois eastern bituminous coal was fired in the pilot-scale combustor. To reduce the mercury concentration to g/Nm3, flue gas was passed through an electrostatic precipitator, then a high-efficiency fabric filter, and finally a wet lime-based scrubber. Again, at least one set of quad sorbent trap samples was taken per day. At the completion of testing, the data was statistically analyzed to determine the variability associated with the various parts of the process and to determine the true lower limit of quantification for each CMM.

Renewable Resources and Integration


Renewable energy is fundamentally changing the electricity industrys strategic landscape. Some projections indicate that by 2030 renewables could account for more than 20% of the electricity generated and delivered globally. To affordably and reliably generate and integrate renewable resources, the electricity industry will need innovative solutions to address critical challenges, including these: Enable renewable generation technology optionswind, water, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, biomass, and geothermal energythat are cost-competitive over the long term with other low-carbon forms of power generation. Maintain electric grid reliability with high penetrations of variable wind and solar energy. Understand and minimize environmental impacts of renewable energy resources on a large scale.

will be required to continuously measure mercury concentrations at <1.0 g/m3. But little, if any, data is available as to the validity of monitors to measure at low levels. A recent EPRI study evaluated at pilot scale the variability of two continuous mercury monitors (CMMs) when measuring mercury at low concentrations (<1.0 g/Nm3). The study was funded by EPRI and the Illinois Clean Coal Institute, the DOE, and the Energy & EnvironJanuary 2012 POWER

Develop Single-Well Geothermal Systems. The vast majority of existing geothermal

power plants draw energy from reservoirs of steam or high-temperature liquid water in permeable rock. Production wells bring the fluids to the surface, where their heat is converted to electricity through a steam turbine generator.
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These systems typically are risky and expensive because they require exploration and characterization of the geothermal resource to determine its viability. This often necessitates the drilling of deep wells. In 2009, EPRI began exploring a novel, closed-loop approach for mining heat from dry rock formations while avoiding the drilling of injection and production wells. A single-well engineered geothermal system technology could accelerate energy capture from regions where there is heat but no liquid. One such system was evaluated by EPRI. The concept relies on using existing wells, such as abandoned oil or gas recovery wells, or commercially failed (crippled) geothermal wells. To create energy, power producers would pump their own liquid into the well through a closedloop process, bring that heated liquid back to the surface, and transform the heat into electricity using either commercial binary-cycle or reverse air conditioning technology. The single-well system employs a down-hole heat exchanger with a specialized heat transfer fluid to maximize heat exchange. Using some of the vast inventory of abandoned or underused wells to capture underground heat could eliminate some of the risk associated with geothermal energy. Power companies can measure temperatures at the well bottom without having to invest several million dollars to drill the well first. Adapting singlewell systems could also expand the geothermal resource. Existing geothermal power plants must be located above moderate- to high-temperature geothermal resources where there are reservoirs of steam or liquid water in permeable rock. These conditions exist in a few relatively small geographic areas of the world. Recoverable geothermal resources that rely on hot dry rock, on the other hand, are estimated to exceed 500,000 MW of generating capacity and offer deployment potential of 100,000 MW by 2050. In a recently published report, EPRI researchers examined the amount of energy that could be extracted using single-well geothermal systems and how much such systems would cost. They modeled down-hole components and analyzed the potential of drilling, conduction, heat transfer fluid, and fluid enhancements for maximizing heat extraction. Their work suggests that a single-well system will be optimal if it is installed in a fractured or porous medium in a highly saturated condition. Single-well geothermal technology could be ready for commercial application in new, depleted, or abandoned oil and gas fields in just a few years. Individual wells could have a potential yield of 0.5 MW to 1 MW. Detect Wind Turbine Blade Flaws. Wind turbine blades are expected to last millions of operating cycles. However, flaws in turbine bladeseither production defects or defects that arise during operationcan cause cracks or oth43

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


er damage, leading to expensive repairs. In severe cases, flaws can lead to catastrophic failure of the blade and damage to the wind turbine. The primary method for examining wind turbine components is visual inspection. However, this method cannot detect flaws that lie beneath the blades surface. To address this challenge, EPRI is working to develop NDE techniques for wind turbine components, including blades. One method capable of examining large surfaces is laser shearography, a technique used in the aerospace industry. In 2010, EPRI researchers demonstrated in the laboratory the feasibility of using laser shearography to assess the health of wind turbine blades. Defects in wind turbine blades that lie beneath the surface produce slight inconsistencies in the continuity of the blades surface. These changes are not visible to the naked eye. Laser shearography relies on a shearography camera with a built-in laser. The laser illuminates the blades surface, and the light reflected off the blade travels into the camera, which relies on interference patterns to detect flaws. The technology produces a three-dimensional image of the defect. EPRI researchers recently tested laser shearography on a wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratorys (NRELs) test facility in Golden, Colo. Using this technology, the team detected a large delamination on the high-pressure side of a blade that had not been previously detected. After 25,000 cycles, a crack appeared along the edge of the delamination. During subsequent fatigue cycles, this crack grew until the test was stopped at 2.4 million cycles. Laser shearography has advantages over other NDE techniques. First, it is one of the few techniques that can be employed once a blade has been installed. Second, EPRI research indicates that the device may work even when mounted on the ground, eliminating the need for a crane or inspector. Third, the laser can scan a relatively large areaon the order of 43 square feetenabling operators to conduct inspections quickly. As part of this three-year project, EPRI researchers plan to test laser shearography in the field. Improved shearography techniques will result in more thorough structural assessments of blades by making it easier to detect flaws. In addition, EPRI plans to collaborate with Sandia National Laboratories Blade Reliability Collaborative in the development of flaw and degradation analysis models. These models will help wind turbine owners and operators determine whether blades with defects must be repaired or replaced. Some flaws may not pose a threat to the structural integrity of the blade (Figure 2). Detect Bats Near Wind Turbines. The spinning blades of wind turbines can cause significant bat kills, especially when migratory species are on the move. A recent paper projected that turbines in the Mid-Atlantic region could be killing 33,000 to 111,000 bats each year by 2020. Concerns about bat mortality have put some wind power projects on hold, while the economic viability of others is threatened by mitigation strategies such as seasonal curtailment of operations. EPRI is developing an automated bat protection system that will use an array of ultrasonic microphones mounted on the turbine to detect the calls bats use to navigate and find prey. When the bat protector detects bats, it will automatically slow or stop the turbine blades. The projects first objectives were to select the best commercially available ultrasonic microphones and identify the optimum number and configuration of microphones around the turbine. EPRI used recorded calls from big brown bats and small-footed batsspecies found throughout North Americato evaluate existing echolocation detection hardware and software under turbines at the Cedar Creek Wind Resource Area, a 200-MW wind farm in Colorado. EPRI researchers used groundmounted transmitters and receivers to test the systems capabilities at various distances and in different configurations. The receivers could detect the calls 90% of the time when the transmitter was less than 15 feet away. The angle of the transmitter also influenced the receivers ability to detect calls. As a next step, EPRI researchers will test the microphones by mounting them on a functioning GE wind turbine at NREL. Mounting the system on the turbine will test the ability of the hardware and software components to distinguish bat calls from rotor noise. Bats arent common near Golden, so the team will use a remote-controlled device to broadcast the calls of silver-haired bats, hoary bats, and eastern red batsthose species most at riskto test the microphones capabilities. If all goes well, the team will collaborate with a host utility to conduct further field testing. Assuming that the tests prove successful, EPRI plans to collaborate with a turbine manufacturer to incorporate bat detection as a control system input (Figure 3).
Combine Energy Storage and Wind Generation. As a result of the rapid expansion

of wind generation, and transmission constraints in certain regions, utilities are experiencing substantial curtailment of wind power. Due to transmission issues and other reasons, one study found that the mean realized capacity factor for Europe over the past five years was below 21%, while preconstruction expectations were in the 30% to 35% range. The ability to store wind energy could help utilities maximize wind farm capacity factors and reduce or eliminate curtailment, provide dispatchable capability for wind generation, increase the operational flexibility of isolated grids, facilitate higher wind penetration, and reduce generation portfolio fuel burn. A recent EPRI study explored the potential benefits of directly integrated energy storage (ES) and wind generation. The study compared the potential use of several different ES technologies and calculated the general profitability of the preferred option for a particular location. This study provides quantitative analysis of the potential for the integration of onsite ES and wind generation. The ability to store wind energy could provide higher wind farm capacity factors.

3. Bat detective. New technology will be

able to distinguish bat calls from rotor noise in order to slow or stop blades when bats are present. Courtesy: EPRI

2. Detecting blade faults. Using laser technology, structural faults in wind turbine blades can be detected before failure occurs. Courtesy: EPRI

44

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RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


In the first phase of the two-phase project, the project team identified the most promising ES options available at this time. Technologies investigated included many battery systems (for example, sodium sulfur batteries), pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage (CAES), and hydrogen or ammonia production for end use. CAES technologies were found to be the preferred options. In the second phase, the team conducted a high-level engineering and economic analysis to investigate the profitability of the preferred ES option for a particular application and location. The location was a specific existing wind farm in the Midwest, and the one-year study period was May 1, 2010 to April 30, 2011. The analysis included capital costs, operating costs, and determination of CAES plant dispatch and revenues from participation in the energy and ancillary market of the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator. Further potential value, not attributed to the CAES plant in this current financial analysis, includes potential investment tax credits for the CAES plant capital costs, benefits to the wind farm owner such as increased production tax credits, higher nodal locational marginal prices during congestion or high-wind periods, transmission asset benefits and enhanced Independent System Operator (ISO) system flexibility (such as operation as a controllable load), reduced cycling of fossil plants in the ISO that have poor heat rates and higher maintenance costs, and facilitation of increased renewable energy penetration. water for cooling and other normal operations, they often face pressure to reduce freshwater use. EPRI researchers are developing a prototype decision support system called Water Prism that can be used to analyze current and projected water demand and supply in a geographical area such as a watershed. This software will help power generators compare different water management strategies and determine whether these strategies will lead to sustainable water use. Water Prism compares total water demand from all sectorsincluding electric power, agricultural, municipal, industrial, and the ecosystemto total available freshwater supply. The program takes into account not only current demand and supply but also projections for the next 50 years. Power companies and other sectors can then explore the impact of different water-saving strategies, such as using effluent from a wastewater treatment plant or agricultural runoff, on total freshwater demand. By comparing those reductions with total supply, they can determine whether a given management strategy will lead to sustainable water use. The data required for Water Prism include climate, land use, current water withdrawal and discharge records, and projected water demands. Other models exist to assess various water management strategies, but Water Prisms graphics, which are similar to the graphics used in EPRIs Prism analysis for greenhouse gas emissions, make it easy for stakeholders and the general public to grasp the results. The software represents water use in each sector as colored bands, which combine to form a prism equal to the total water use by all sectors, allowing analyses of different water management strategies. EPRI researchers plan to complete a working prototype of Water Prism by the end of 2011 and are testing and refining software using data from the Muskingum River watershed in Ohio, an 8,000-square-mile area with five electric power plants (Figure 4).
Reduce Cooling Tower Evaporative Loss. In the U.S., thermoelectric power with-

Water Resource Management


Water presents three strategic challenges and opportunities for the electric sector:

Using less water for power production conserves a scarce resource for other necessary uses. Minimizing the environmental impacts on water uses for power production preserves environmental resources and protects human health. Using efficient electric technologies for water treatment, transport, desalinization, and industrial processes both reduces water demand and conserves electricity.

EPRI has research projects under way in all three categories. Develop New Utility Water Policies. Because power plants rely on large quantities of

4. Prism vision. Power companies can use EPRIs Water Prism in house to help develop
their own water use strategy or to site new plants. Alternatively, they can use the analysis and resulting strategies to lead broad efforts with other stakeholders to develop a unified water use plan for an entire region. Source: EPRI

drawals account for approximately 40% of freshwater withdrawals and approximately 3% of consumption. In specific regions and during drought years, this rate of water withdrawal may not be available. Looking ahead, increasing growth pressures and tightening regulations are anticipated to further drive industry needs to reduce water use and consumption. Innovative water reduction technologies are therefore needed to enhance long-term operational performance and new plant citing options, particularly in water-constrained regions. For typical Rankine-cycle steam plants with closed-cycle wet cooling, the majority of freshwater use (~90%) is for cooling. Reducing water requirements for thermal power plant cooling represents the best opportunity for in-plant water conservation. As existing water-saving cool46 www.powermag.com

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RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


ing technologies have high capital costs, energy penalties, and operations and maintenance impacts, the development of new, cost-effective cooling technologies has been the focus of EPRIs Water Use and Availability Technology Innovation Program. Based upon responses to an initial request for information in 2011, EPRI is launching research on several technologies that have the potential for significant water efficiency gains at both fossil and nuclear units, including the development of heat absorption nanoparticles for reducing cooling tower evaporative loss. This novel cooling technology consists of a nanoparticle with an outer ceramic/metal shell and an internal phase-change material core which, when added to a coolant fluid, significantly increases both its rate of heat transfer as well as its heat capacity. This nanofluid with enhanced thermal properties would result in reduced flow rates, reduced evaporation and drift water loss, and overall power plant water consumption reductions of up to 20%. The technology has the added appeal of being broadly applicable to new and existing cooing systems and, in concept, it could be relatively cost-effective to retrofit to existing cooling towers. This unique heat absorption nanoparticle concept and the underlying technology were developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). EPRI is launching a project with ANL to further develop and demonstrate a working nanofluid using these particles that can be utilized specifically for power plant cooling needs. Computer models will optimize the thermal properties of nanoparticles needed for such applications, and then laboratory synthesis and pilot testing will further optimize the candidate nanoparticles. The process also will be developed to mitigate any potential for environmental losses of the nanoparticles, as well as any negative material degradation consequences of the nanofluid itself. Finally, prototype testing of an optimized nanofluid will be performed with a scaled-down cooling tower and condenser system, and an economic feasibility study for a 500-MW power plant will be conducted. If these breakthrough project goals are met, larger-scale demonstrations of the heat absorption nanoparticles technology could be conducted through specific utility applicationfocused programs at EPRI, such as the Advanced Cooling Technology or Advanced Nuclear Technology programs. EPRI plans to develop a suite of such water-conserving power plant cooling advancements throughout the next several years in order to expand regional- and utility-specific options for long-term operations and new plant construction. Form the Water Research Center. Water management restrictions for all types of electric generating units continue to increase due to
January 2012 POWER

rising water costs, stakeholder pressure, and/or new regulations. Regulatory changes may include the following:

Water withdrawal taxes to force conservation and reuse. Mandated limitations on water withdrawals, including prohibition against oncethrough cooling. Permit changes and/or revisions to the Steam Electric Effluent Guidelines. Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) mandates.

EPRI has formed a research collaborative with Georgia Power Corp. and Southern Company Services to support the transition to a future that limits traditional water intake volumes by developing a Water Research Center (WRC) that is holistically focused on these issues. The WRC is located at Plant Bowen in Cartersville, Ga. Research will focus on meeting future water and wastewater restrictions and enabling sustainable water use practices in utility operations. The WRC also will serve as a facility to conduct research performance evaluations of new technologies and technical approaches to ensure that they are properly vetted. This project is the first step in reaching these goals, by planning and developing the WRC as an industrywide resource at which potential end users, vendors, and resource agencies can test new technologies cost-effectively, using specialists in the area and standardized/uniform protocols. The WRC will provide an infrastructure and specialist staff for testing tools and technologies aimed at reducing water consumption and developing/demonstrating cost-effective treatment technologies for potential wastewater contaminants. Projects could include:

continued development and adoption of energy efficient technologies and best practices is essential to realizing these goals. Utility energy efficiency activities have focused on incentives to end-use customers to adopt relatively mature technologies, most notably compact-fluorescent lamps. However, realizing the resource potential of energy efficiency requires the development and availability of a wider variety of efficient end-use technologies in homes, buildings, and industrial facilities. Realizing the full potential of energy efficiency also requires a more holistic view upstream of the end-use realm, including power generation and delivery. Improvements in the efficiency of auxiliary loads in power plants and in techniques to reduce T&D energy losses can yield significant energy savings within acceptable costs, but also require validation through extensive assessment, testing, and demonstration. EPRI is conducting a multi-year energy efficiency demonstration project focused on six hyper-efficient electricity utilization technologies. These technologies may have the potential to reduce electric energy consumption in residential and commercial applications by up to 40% for each application. If fully deployed, these technologies could reduce the demand for electric energy between 10% and 20%. The six hyper-efficient technologies being demonstrated are:

Variable refrigerant flow air conditioning (with and without ice storage) Heat pump water heating Ductless residential heat pumps and air conditioners Hyper-efficient residential appliances Data center energy efficiency Light-emitting diode street and area lighting

Wastewater treatment (FGD discharge and low-volume wastewaters) Zero liquid discharge Advanced cooling Moisture recapture and other techniques to reduce water needs Degraded water use Disposal management for water treatment/ ZLD solids Water balance and monitoring tools

Improve Efficiency in Generation and Delivery. Energy efficiency can help meet

A project kickoff meeting was held in November 2011. Some projects already are under way, and construction of the new WRC facilities is expected to be completed in late 2012.

Energy Efficiency (End-to-End)


Energy efficiency is widely acknowledged as a resource to help maintain reliable and affordable electric service, reduce emissions, and save resources. Efficiency goals are mandated in 24 states and are under consideration in others. The
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the challenges of maintaining reliable and affordable electric service, managing energy resources, and reducing carbon emissions. While many utilities are encouraged by their regulators to engage in end-use energy efficiency programs, few consider options to reduce energy losses along the electricity value chain. In many cases, the efficiency gains that could be realized through measures to reduce T&D losses or reduce electricity consumption at power plants can be significant. Recent EPRI analyses indicate that approximately 11% of electricity produced is consumed in the production and delivery of electricity itself by energizing auxiliary devices such as pumps, material handlers, and environmental controls, and through T&D losses. Based on 2010 estimates of electricity generation, this represents 450.7 billion kilowatt-hours of U.S. electricity
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RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


generated, making the electric sector the second-largest electric-consuming industry. The application of new technologies may have the potential to reduce electricity use in electric utilities by 10% to 15%. Even a 10% reduction is enough electricity to power 3.9 million homes. EPRI has identified technology options and changes in operating methods that can improve overall efficiency. In power production, duty-cycle or capacity factor is the key driver that influences internal power use relative to unit output. In coal-fired power plants, the average internal power use across the sample used in EPRIs analysis was 7.6%. In nuclear power plants, the average was 4.1%. Opportunities to reduce electricity use in power production may include advances in control systems for auxiliary power devices and the use of adjustable-speed drive (ASD) mechanisms. In addition, ASD installations often reduce CO2 emissions. Electricity losses in power delivery total approximately 6.3%. In the distribution system, the use of efficient transformers, improved voltage control, phase balancing, and balancing of reactive power needs could substantially reduce electricity use. In the transmission system, opportunities include extra-high-voltage overlays, and transformer and line efficiency. In addition, there are a couple of other discoveries worth highlighting:

Newer power plants are not necessarily more efficient than older plants, due principally to environmental requirements. Non-baseload operating plants have a particularly high potential for improvement by the application of ASDs on motors.

Other EPRI research shows that shifting loads from peak to off-peak hours provides significant improvement by reducing load flows on the T&D system during peak periods when losses are exacerbated, while also reducing cycling operation for selected generation units. Use of alternative energy sources close to load centers to supply energy requirements during peak periods also can significantly reduce T&D losses during the most challenging periods of operation. Given the intensity of energy consumption in the industrys own physical infrastructure, efficiency measures undertaken at a finite number of power plants or in the power delivery grid can potentially yield energy savings and carbon emission reductions more cost-effectively than traditional end-use programs targeted at buildings, residential users, and other industries.
Improve Data Center Energy Efficiency.

AC to DC and back again. The power losses due to the use of inefficient power conversion devices from both outside and within equipment result in a large loss of useful electrical power. They also directly increase the energy required to remove the heat produced. Though estimates and actual measurements vary, the power utilization by information technology (IT) loads can sometimes be 50% or less of the total input power consumption. Duke Energy and EPRI are working together in a demonstration project that focuses on DC conversion at the data center (or facility) level. The approach will convert the facilitys 480V AC into 380V DC and deliver it to the equipment racks via a 380V DC bus. The very best AC equipment can be deployed to improve power distribution efficiency, but that approach only squeezes some of the losses out of each component. The DC approach eliminates those losses completely, through the removal of the less-efficient AC components. DC power distribution is an alternative approach to a conventional data center AC power scheme. Most data center server racks are not currently powered using DC, but the servers and storage arrays can operate with either AC or DC. Typical servers and storage arrays inherently convert an AC power source to DC within each power supply, which adds an additional power conversion loss. Using the DC powering approach, extra power conversion steps are eliminated, lowering losses, increasing reliability, reducing cooling needs and square footage requirements for data centers, and simplifying power supplies. Testing of a DC power system at a Duke Energy data center in Charlotte, N.C., has revealed preliminary results that the system uses 15% less energy than a typical double-conversion UPS AC power system.

This strategic issue requires a holistic vision with end-to-end system considerations including transmission, distribution, and end use. Launch Protect the Grid Initiative. The increasing interconnectedness, automation, and communication capabilities of the power grid pose several significant cyber security, resiliency, and privacy challenges. Security threats to the grid could come from deliberate attacks by terrorists and hackers as well as inadvertent user errors and equipment failures. Additionally, the dramatic increase in the granularity of data about end-user behavior raises several new privacy concerns. To achieve a secure and resilient grid, advances must be made in assessing and monitoring risk, architectures to support end-toend security, legacy systems security, approaches for managing incidents, and technology to support privacy. EPRI has launched the Security and Privacy Initiative, a collaborative effort to investigate cyber security standards, business processes, and technologies that can address these issues. This project, which will expand to become the Cyber Security and Privacy Program in 2012, also will develop technologies, best practices, and controls on data privacy. EPRI also has partnered with the DOE to conduct cyber security research and analysis to support the National Electric Sector Cyber Security Organization. As part of this three-year public/private partnership, EPRI will determine how to mitigate risks from impending threats, harmonize cyber security requirements, and assess cyber security standards and technologies. Assessing and monitoring the cyber security posture for energy delivery systems is vital to understanding and managing cyber security risk. As part of its R&D, EPRI is working with advanced metering infrastructure

Smart Grid
The smart grid concept combines information and communications technologies with the electricity grid to increase performance and provide new capabilities. Increasing use of variable generation and controllable loads, combined with an aging infrastructure, is a scenario where conveying actionable information to and from interactive markets, or monitoring asset health, will require greater use of information and communication technologies. Each utility will create its own smart grid through investments made in back office systems, communications networks, and intelligent electric devices. Smart grid functional requirements, interoperability, and cyber security standards are still evolving, and premature technology obsolescence could strand some investments as transitional technologies need to be replaced before their expected end of life.
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5. Low exposure. An EPRI researcher takes data on radio-frequency exposure from smart meters. These meters are typically part of a wireless mesh network consisting of approximately 500 to 750 home meters connected through a cell relay meter to local utility via a cellular wireless wide area network. The cell relay meter operates at a nominal power level of 1 watt. Courtesy: EPRI

Typical data center power delivery designs use alternating current (AC) power, typically distributed within the facility at 480V AC. This power goes through several conversions from
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RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT


(AMI) vendors and utilities to identify a set of alerts and alarms that can be standardized to enhance AMI security event monitoring. The EPRI program in 2012 will continue this effort and also focus on network security management architectures for T&D systems. These activities will support the long-term objective of enhanced situational awareness across the domains of the power delivery system. Increasing the security of next-generation energy delivery systems will require a combination of new security architectures, tools, and procedures that provide end-to-end security and support defense-in-depth features. The EPRI program will address this need by developing protective measures, such as key management, high-assurance architectures, and security testing tools to validate the level of protection. The program also will focus on reducing the security risk of legacy systems through the development of risk mitigation strategies, transition strategies, and the assessment of substation security solutions. Although efforts to prevent and detect cyber incidents are important for the protection of control systems, they do not prepare for the eventuality of a cyber incident. Energy delivery systems also must be resilient to cyber incidents and continue to perform critical functions while under duress and during the recovery process. EPRIs R&D is addressing part of this issue by developing guidelines and best practices for responding to cyber incidents on AMI systems. In the future, the EPRI program will support resiliency for the grid by focusing on decision support tools for responding to cyber incidents, as well as tools and techniques to support cyber security forensics.
Make the Smart Grid Interoperable.

Interoperability is the ability of two devices or systems to exchange information and use that information to perform their functions. The vision of the smart grid is that millions of devices in different domains and with different owners will be able to exchange information. This exchange of information needs to happen with minimal integration cost and difficulty. The lack of mature, uniform standards to enable interoperability among systems has been cited by utilities and regulators as a reason for not moving forward with smart grid applications such as AMI. Investments in proprietary systems risk long-term vendor lock-in and costly fork-lift upgrades to fully take advantage of new smart grid applications. The key to interoperability is standards. The use of standards to integrate complex systems and components dramatically reduces both

implementation and operational costs. But for devices and systems to communicate easily, they must speak the same language. Standards abound in the utility space, but they have different, sometimes overlapping domains. Some standards are mature and others are emerging. Both technical and implementation gaps need to be addressed simultaneously. Existing technical standards for smart grid applications are incomplete and have not been broadly adopted by utilities, vendors, and third-party device manufacturers. Some existing standards need to be harmonized, and reference architectures and interface standards that will enable interoperability between equipment from different vendors will need to be developed. In addition, many of the existing standards do not address cyber security or device management uniformly. Achieving interoperability is a huge undertaking that involves the active involvement of all stakeholders, including the federal government, standards development organizations, and user groups. All of these activities need to be coordinated and harmonized to enable data and information to be shared with the people and individuals who need it.

Arshad Mansoor is senior vice president, research & development for the Electric Power Research Institute.

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POWER IN CHINA

Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan Pushes Power Industry in New Directions


The Five-Year Plan is the expression of the centralized planning goals for Chinas economy. The 12th Five-Year Plan, approved by the Chinese Government on March 14, 2011, established many social and economic goals, including significant expansion of the countrys power generation industry in many new directions.
By Zeng Ming, Xue Song, Zhu Xiaoli, and Ma Mingjuan, North China Electric Power University
he Five-Year Plan is Chinas most important government policy document. It describes a series of economic development initiatives, maps strategies for economic development, sets growth targets, and launches reforms. During the just-completed 11th Five-Year Plan period, rapid power industry growth met the needs of economic and social development, but the growth of the power industry was disorganized. As part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the structure of power generation development will be optimized, including the proper balance of coal transportation and power transmission. In addition, the controversy over the direction of grid transmission and distribution must be reconciled. The Plan also puts forward specific requirements for energy conservation measures. Chinas major power companies have already begun formulating their development strategies to meet five specific requirements set out by the Plan: develop clean energy, optimize the production of coal-fired electricity, rationally allocate peaking power, develop distributed energy, and construct a strong and smart grid. The purpose of this article is to discuss those requirements and the development strategies for Chinas power industry.

tant role in the development of new and renewable energy and contribute considerably to energy saving and emissions reductions in the next 10 years (Figure 1). The contribution of nuclear power, although now about 10.8 GW, will increase

greatly, as a percentage, in the future. Due to intermittency and instability issues, the installed capacity of wind power will be lower than hydro power and nuclear power by 2020. At the same time, the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics will not increase con-

Table 1. Installed electricity capacity in China, 2010 and projected to 2020. Source: China Electricity Council, National Grid Energy Research Institute
2010 Technology Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Pumped storage Wind Solar Biomass Other Total GW 646.60 26.42 10.82 198.21 17.84 29.57 0.26 1.70 36.92 968.34 Percentage 66.77% 2.73% 1.12% 20.47% 1.84% 3.05% 0.03% 0.18% 3.81% 100.00% GW 1,030.00 58.90 80.83 340.00 50.00 150.00 24.00 15.00 36.92 1,785.65 2020 Percentage 57.68% 3.30% 4.53% 19.04% 2.80% 8.40% 1.34% 0.84% 2.07% 100.00%

1. A great wall of China. The 22.5-GW Three Gorges Dam, which is under construction along the great Yangtze River in Chinas Hubei Province, is the worlds largest power project, costing an estimated 180 billion ($28.4 billion) to build. Courtesy: Wikipedia

Goal 1: Develop Clean Energy


The 12th Five-Year Plan will change the power generation structure in which new and renewable energy resources figure prominently. According to the Plan, nonfossil fuel generation should account for 11.4% of total primary energy consumption by 2015, and renewable energy resources should be 20% by 2020. In order to reach emission reduction targets, the proportion of new and renewable energy in Chinas overall energy mix will continually increase. Clean energy sources include hydro, biomass, wind, solar, and nuclear power. In 2010, the total installed electricity production capacity in China was 968.34 GW (Table 1). To meet the Plans clean energy goals, hydro power will play the most impor50 www.powermag.com

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POWER IN CHINA
siderably before 2020 because of technology and economic concerns. National Grid Energy Research Institute (NGERI) has completed a study of several scenarios of the coordinated development of clean energy and power systems during the 12th Five-Year Plan, particularly with regard to energy security and economy. The results of the study showed that Chinas total installed capacity is expected to soar to 1,786 GW by 2020. The installed capacity of renewable energy will reach about 600 GW by 2020 (Table 1), according to the National Development and Reform Commission. Renewable energy will increase in overall percentage from 26.54% in 2010 to 34% in 2020. It should be noted that the construction period for nuclear power and hydro power is very long. Thus, it is very critical for China to construct and place into operation a number of clean energy generation projects during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

2. Coal resources in China, by province (2001). Source: Wikimedia Commons

Goal 2: Optimize Production of Coal-Fired Electricity


The installed capacity of thermal power in China is 710 GW, 54% of which is in the electric load center of east China, and only 19% in the coal-rich regions in central and west China (Figure 2). The Plan requires accelerating the optimization of coal-fired power as essential for sustainable development of the power industry, or local balance. The largest challenge is that Chinas coal-fired electricity distribution system lacks inter-provincial transmission capability. In addition, coal must be shipped by train from coal-rich regions to plants in the eastern areas, where air and acid rain pollution are severe. As expected, coal transport delays and downtime are frequent, threatening the security and stability of power systems as well as sustainable economic development. Electricity demand will grow rapidly in China for a long time into the future. From the perspective of power demand distribution, consumption growth in the regions of Jin, Shan, Meng, and Ning in western China will be larger than in the eastern regions. From the perspective of the absolute level of electricity consumption, the proportion of consumption in supply-side regions may increase gradually, but regional distribution patterns will not fundamentally change. The absolute consumption gap between supply-side regions and demandside regions will continue to increase (Figure 3). Therefore, accelerating the construction of coal-based generation is imperative in order to rationalize the location of coal-fired power and achieve greater overall economic and social benefits (Figure 4). The technical feasibility of ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission has been verified with the successful operation of several UHV AC and DC demonstration projects. UHV can improve the economic effectiveness of transmission greatly. It can economically connect the energy base in the northwestern areas to the primary energy consumption areas in the east: The floor price of UHV transmission is 0.03 to 0.10 yuan/kWh (0.40 to 1.57 cents/kWh), lower than the cost of transport51

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3. Balancing supply and demand. The gap between installed capacity and electricity consumption in east China is increasing over time. Source: China Electricity Council
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4. Coal by wire. The Guangxi Fangchenggang Power Station is the largest power project in Guangxi Province in southern China. The plant is located in the Beibu Wan Economic Zone and supplies power to the developing region and to the West to East electricity transmission system via the China Southern Grid. Courtesy: CLP Holdings Ltd.

January 2012 POWER

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POWER IN CHINA
ing coal the same distance. By balancing the amount of coal transported to plants in the northwestern areas with the amount of electricity moved to the east, Chinas energy supply security is improved in the eastern and central regions. This approach also optimizes the use of energy, land, and environmental resources while promoting development of regional economies. According to the proposed program, new transmission will account for 20% of energy export in western areas. Accelerating the regional optimization of coal-fired power requires mutual cooperation between supply-side and demand-side regions. Eastern areas lacking energy must receive coal, wind, and hydro power from western areas. In order to meet increased electricity demand and environmental protection requirements, it is important to control new coal power installations and focus development on nuclear, hydro, solar, and pumped storage plants. In addition, power development regions and demand-side regions should actively seek government support and establish strategic cooperation mechanisms to ensure an economic and reliable power supply.

For More Details


The following sources provided data for this article. Some URLs have been shortened for easier presentation without breaking in print. Unless otherwise indicated, the web pages are available in English. 1. State Council, 2011. The Twelfth FiveYear Plan for National Economic and Social Development. (Chinese: http:// tinyurl.com/72hroob) 2. National Development and Reform Commission, 2010. Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy. Beijing. (Chinese: http://tinyurl.com/cgpt8e8) 3. National Grid Energy Research Institute, 2011. Studies on the Development of Clean Energy by State Grid Corporation. Beijing. (http://tinyurl.com/86bz5hv) 4. China Electricity Council, 2011. Report on the Development of Chinas Power Industry. Beijing. (http://tj.cec.org.cn/) See also CEC report on Chinas electricity supply and demand analysis and economic forecasts (20102011). (http:// tinyurl.com/7gqzfr3) 5. Fanxian Yun, Jining Chen, Fu Sun, Siyu Zeng, and Can Wang. Trend of Technology Innovation in Chinas Coal-fired Electricity Industry Under Resource and Environmental Constraints. Elsevier: Energy Policy (39) 2011. (http://tinyurl. com/7ywramt) 6. State Grid Corp., 2011. The Twelfth FiveYear Plan for Center Power Enterprises. (http://tinyurl.com/7kuv9la) 7. National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2011. Series Report of the Economic and Social Achievements: New Development, New Leap Forward, New Episode. (http://tinyurl.com/7wr2qq8)

5. The production and use of natural gas in China, 19912007. Source: China
Statistical Yearbook, 19912007 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Production Available reserve Reserve-production ratio 30,000

Goal 3: Rationally Allocate Peaking Power


Coal-fired power is the foundation of Chinas power generation structure. Northern plants account for a large portion of coal installation capacity and run-of-water hydropower plants, which makes regulating peak load difficult. With rapid development of wind power, especially given its intermittent nature, power systems must have peaking power. Due to peak-shaving difficulties, the output limits of wind power are very serious in low-load periods. Therefore, China needs to construct gas-fired power and pumped storage power stations to meet system peaking demand. Gas-Fired Power. Compared with coal power, gas-fired power has advantages in reducing carbon emissions. Natural gas generators, good at peak shaving, can start fast and adjust flexibly. However, domestic natural gas resources are limited, and supply capacity is inadequate. The trends of Chinas natural gas production and reserve-production ratio are shown in Figure 5. We can see from Figure 5 that the reserve-production ratio of natural gas shows a downward trend, which means that Chinas dependency on gas imports will increase even more. The 2009 China Energy Development Blue Book, released by the Academy of Social Sciences, estimates Chinas natural gas consumption in 2010 was 120 billion cubic meters and will rise to 200 billion cubic meters in 2015 (Figure 6). Chinas 2010 natural gas supply and demand gap was 20 to 30 billion cubic meters, with imports accounting for 20% of that amount.
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Today, gas supply predictions from companies such as Petro China and Sinopec are optimistic. China has large growth potential for gas supply (the available reserve of natural gas has been increasing), which meets domestic demand during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and will meet the 13th Five-Year Plan period demand by importing more gas at a higher price. The price of electricity from natural gas fired plants is highly affected by market price. Taking gas supply, price, and other factors into account, Chinas natural gas generation in the future should be moderate and located mainly in eastern load center regions to cover peaking power and develop cogeneration units. The installed capacity of gas-fired power is only 24 GW, and in-depth studies are still required to reach the comprehensive target of energy structure adjustment and power system peak shaving. Large-scale development of gas power is very difficult, as the natural gas supply is located far from the natural gas demand in China. Pumped Storage. The pumped storage power station is the most economical and reliable energy storage technology that can also function as peak shaving, frequency modulation, accident spare, and black-start plant (Table 2). This type of plant can also respond swiftly with good load-following capability. Meanwhile, the development of pumped storage power can effectively reduce installation capacity and the amount of peaking supplied by coal power. The operating efficiency of coal is also improved when used with pumped storage. In order to add peak shaving to a grid with large-scale nuclear and wind power connected, it is critical to construct pumped storage power stations and accelerate the development of other energy storage technologies. Chinas opportunity to develop many pumped storage projects is vast: More than 130 GW of potential sites have been identified. Pumped storage power stations in eastern and central business areas account for about 50% of total site resources, with 15% each for North China Power Grid, Northeast Power Grid, and Southern Power Grid, according to the National Grid Energy Research Institute. However, pumped storage power stations on the Northwest Power Grid have fewer resourcesless than 10% of the total. Planned and recommended sites for new pumped storage projects are shown in Table 3. The growth in pumped storage projects in China is illustrated in Figure 7. Chinas electricity load center is in the eastern and central regions, which have large peak-valley altitude differences and good resource sites for pumped storage. Therefore, future pumped-storage power stations will be mainly distributed in these regions.

Table 2. The construction status of pumped storage power stations in China. Source: China Electricity Council
Region East China North China South China Central China Northeast China Northwest China Total Installed capacity (GW) 4.86 3.70 3.30 2.29 0.90 0.09 12.55 Capacity under construction (GW) 3.86 0.60 2.78 1.50 2.40 NA 11.14 Total GW 8.72 4.30 6.08 3.79 2.70 9.00 15.69

Goal 4: Develop Distributed Energy Sources


Distributed energy sources are located on the demand side and have many advantages: They improve energy utilization efficiency with energy gradient utilization; reduce energy transmission pressure and transmission losses; reduce pollutant emissions when using renewable energy; and solve the problem of energy supply to remote or sparsely populated areas to achieve universal power service. However, distributed energy sources also have problems, such as large capacity per unit cost and high technical requirements. The current development of distributed energy mainly focuses on distributed renewable energy, natural gas cogeneration, and combined heat and power (CHP) systems with energy-saving benefits. Distributed energy is an important development trend for future energy technology and supplements the central power plant system. Distributed energy has already been developed and applied in many other countries. For example, the U.S. has more than 6,000 distributed energy stations with installed capacity totaling 92 GW. The proportion of distributed energy in Denmark and the Netherlands is about 60% and 40%, respectively. The installed capacity and total amount of distributed energy is small in China today. Focusing on cogeneration or CHP systems, gas-fired distributed energy systems are mostly concentrated in Beijing,
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Table 3. New pumped storage projects in China. Source: China Electricity Council
Planning station sites Region North China Northeast China East China Central China Northwest China Total Number 23 17 21 26 13 100 Capacity (MW) 30,000 17,600 29,650 30,410 12,800 120,460 Recent recommended sites Number 12 13 6 11 6 48 Capacity (MW) 17,600 13,500 9,350 12,310 5,800 58,760

7. Pumped storage projects grow. Actual pumped storage projects (1999 to 2010) and predictions for new projects (2011 to 2015) are illustrated. Source: China Statistical Yearbook, Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
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Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other big cities. Distributed renewable energy sources will be mainly concentrated in remote areas and will meet local electricity demand through wind power and solar power. In order to promote the development of distributed energy, the National Energy Board has stated that most large-scale cities in the country will implement distributed energy systems by 2020. At a national energy conference in early 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission specified that the installed capacity of distributed energy should reach 50 GW by 2020. However, there are still technical, economic, resource, and policy constraints for distributed energy, including: lack of clear and unified technical standards; lack of a reasonable price system and mechanisms, as current price systems cannot reflect energy scarcity and environmental value; dependence on imports of key equipment and lack of economic advantage; and equipment that is subject to constraints of gas supply and pipeline network coverage. Therefore, China should establish uniform technical standards and develop a rational energy price mechanism for distributed energy. In addition, the standard management of distributed energy should be enhanced and the development of distributed energy should be promoted by the approach experiment first, promotion later.

Goal 5: Construct a Strong and Smart Grid


The diverse locations of fuel supplies, plants, and population/electrical demand requires China to make full use of basic functions of the grid such as long distance, high capacity, and high energy efficiency. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, it is important to accelerate the construction of inter-provincial transmission systems and promote the development of large bases for coal, hydropower, nuclear power, and other new energy resources. China can optimize the allocation of these energy resources by the approach of common transmission channel, joint development and network to network delivery. A cross-regional, long-distance, and high-capacity transmission channel connecting Chinas northwestern coal base and eastern load center regions will be built after the layout optimization of coal-fired power so as to achieve joint transport of coal and wind power. Studies showed that the development scale of wind power in Xin Jiang, Gan Su, Meng Xi, Meng Dong, and Ji Lin will be approximately 80 GW, 75% of which needs to be sent inter-provincially. Abundant solar energy resources in northwestern areas will be developed greatly by 2020, and this inter-provincial transmission infrastructure will allow China to expand the development scale of wind and solar

National Economic and Social Development

8. UHV power grid plan by 2015. Source: State Council, The 12th Five-Year Plan for

Zhang Bei-Nan Chang

Xi Meng

Xi Meng-Nan Jing

Meng Xi Shan Bei Jin Bian Jin Bian-Lian Yungang

Zhang Bei Bei Jing Jin Zhong Shi Jiazhuang Yu Bei Ji Nan Wei Fang Xu Zhou Zhu Madian Lian Yungang He Fei Wu Han Nan Jing Shsng Hai

Ya An-Shang Hai Chong Qing Le Shan

Nan Yang

Xi An

Jing Men

Zhe Bei Nan Chang Chang Sha

Meng Xi-Chang Cha

power because it can be transmitted along with coal power, thereby avoiding economic problems because of isolated development and delivery. Northwestern coal bases and southwestern hydropower bases have large potential to export power. According to the analysis of grid transmission ability, coal-fired power flow will increase 100% from 2015 to 2020. Southwestern hydropower will be the focus in the future, given the distribution and development of water resources. The outgoing capacity of hydropower from the Jin Sha River is 13.9 GW and 30.9 GW in 2015 and 2020, respectively, while from Si Chuan it is 17.2 GW and 22.2 GW. The massive pattern of west to east and north to south will be formed by then, and the ability of UHV and cross-transmission will be increased dramatically. Power development should not only follow its own law of development but also continue to innovate and progress. On the supply side, the power system must not only constantly adapt to technological advances and large-scale development with clean and efficient development of traditional fossil fuel power generation but also meet the new development requirements for hydropower, wind power, solar power, and other renewable energy. On the demand side, it is necessary to adapt technologies to meet the electricity needs of industrialization, urbanization, modernization, and information while meeting green development, energy saving, and low-carbon requirements. On the grid side, it is essential to provide safe, economical, clean, and efficient power products for a modern society. Based on an intelligent, modern, efficient information platform and service network, a smart grid can collect and respond to a diversified supply side and demand side, and satisfy the electricity needs of all. Smart grids are developing actively abroad. They can provide a dynamic platform for a variety of distributed energy resources to connect flexibly and provide an intelligent control and management platform to improve energy efficiency and achieve demand side response. In addition, a smart grid can provide an innovative application platform for electric vehicles and thereby help resolve issues such as power supply security and sustainable development. Combining the characteristics of Chinas energy resource with the sustainable development of its economy and society, State Grid Corp. proposed strategic objectives for a strong and smart grid. A strong and smart grid requires an information and communication platform
POWER January 2012

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9. Modern transmission projects. China, which in 2008 had already completed one
1,000-kV UHV AC circuit, in July put into operation the 2,000-kilometer, 800-kV XiangjiabaShanghai link. Two other 800-kV DC circuits recently completed construction. The Longquan high-voltage DC converter station shown here is similar to those used at Chinas massive hydropower transmission projects. Courtesy: ABB

scale energy resource allocation optimization with high efficiency (Figure 9). As a new strategy for economic growth and emerging industries, a smart grid will bring great business opportunities for the power industry itself, for related upstream and downstream industries, and for the high-tech equipment manufacturing industry. However, opportunities and challenges exist side by side. In future developments, China should emphasis innovation on critical power system equipment and master key technologies, key components, and raw materials production with intellectual property rights through independent innovation. Otherwise, the future implementation of a smart grid will result in higher risk and poor economic effectiveness. Therefore, the independent innovation of the power industry will play a very important role in the future development of the energy industry in China. The work described in this paper was supported by The Energy Foundation (G1006-12630).

By Zeng Ming, Xue Song (xuesongbjhd@163.com), Zhu Xiaoli, and Ma Mingjuan, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.
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with the means of intelligent control. Incorporating generation, transmission, substations, and power distribution, a smart grid can allocate AC and DC rationally and cover all voltage levels to adapt to the development of inter-provincial transmission. Above all, smart grid is a modern grid that is strong and reliable, economically effective, and environmentally friendly. The UHV power grid plan by 2015 for China is shown in Figure 8. In contrast with smart grid developments abroad that stress demand side management, power transmission is also important for China. During the period of the 12th FiveYear Plan, the power industry should focus construction on the transmission grid backbone, which connects major energyproducing regions to main load centers. Besides, the optimal allocation of energy resources should be achieved to adapt to the construction of an electricity market platform while reducing the proportion of fossil energy consumption. In addition, it is needed to strengthen the distribution network construction to improve power supply reliability and meet the needs of distributed energy development. It is estimated that a strong and smart grid, which is centered on an UHV synchronous network and with the characteristic of high security and reliability, will be built by 2020. It can also achieve largeJanuary 2012 POWER

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Powder river basin coal

PRBCUG Small Plant of the Year: Muscatine Power & Water


Employees at the 293-MW Muscatine Power & Water plant combine a positive attitude with an aggressive focus on workplace safety, inspired by the motto: We all can adapt, adopt, and improve to meet the challenges head on to provide our customers with reliable power. The facility began using Powder River Basin coal in 1993, and the staff have learned effective techniques to use it safely.
By Angela Neville, JD
eadquartered in Muscatine, Iowa, on the Mississippi River, Muscatine Power & Water (MP&W) provides electricity, water, and communications products and services to a 24-square-mile service area (Figure 1). MP&W is the largest municipally owned utility in the state in terms of generating capacity and revenue. Established in 1922, the MP&W electric utility has a service area of 22,719 residents and 11,204 electric customers. This year, its operational practices made it an award-winner. The Powder River Basin Coal Users Group (PRBCUG) conducted its annual meeting in conjunction with the 2011 ELECTRIC POWER Conference & Exhibition in May 2011. Each year the PRBCUG recognizes two PRBCUG Coal Plants of the Year (Large and Small Plant categories) for their innovation and implementation of best practices and best available technologies. The Large Coal Plant of the Year award went to Kansas City Power & Lights Iatan Unit 2, coincidentally the 2011 POWER Plant of the Year (see our August 2011 issue or the archives at www .powermag.com). The Small Plant Award went to the MP&W plant (Figure 2). Both winning plants each year are inducted into the PRBCUGs Power Plant Hall of Fame. Selections are made by the board, with input from the groups members. PRBCUG membership consists of users and prospective users of PRB coals (generating companies or industrial energy consumers). Associate members from companies supplying coal, equipment, or services also participate in the selection process. In November, Greg Krieser, past chair of the PRBCUG Board of Directors, told POWER why the MP&W plant is viewed as being an industry leader in handling PRB coal. The story of the City of Muscatines MP&W plant embodies the principles of the Powder River Basin Coal Users Group, Kreiser said. They learned from the experience of others, and they shared their experiences for the benefit of others. Our group wants to thank Mark
56

Costello, the MP&W maintenance supervisor, and his staff for implementing the best practices for safe and efficient use of PRB coal.

The units have the following profiles:

Facility Overview
The MP&W facility consists of three main generation units: Units 7, 8/8A, and 9. In 2010, the units produced a combined total of 1,128 GWh of electricity.

Unit 7 began commercial operation in 1958. It has a Wickes stoker-fired boiler and a 25-MW GE turbine generator. Unit 8 began commercial operation in 1968. It has a Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) cyclone-fired boiler and a 75-MW GE turbine generator.

1. Energizing Iowa. A nighttime view of the Muscatine Power & Water (MP&W) plant located on the Mississippi River in southeastern Iowa. Established in 1922, MP&W is the largest municipally owned utility in the state in terms of generating capacity and revenue. Courtesy: MP&W

2. A powerful team. The main reasons for the plants success: the employees of Muscatine Power & Water plant. Shown from left to right are Jeff Hedrington, safety manager; Ray Danz, director of power production and supply; Mike Avesing, plant manager; Scott Clester, material handling supervisor; Mark Costello, maintenance supervisor; and Greg Krieser, past chair of the PRBCUG Board of Directors. The photo was taken in May 2011 at the ELECTRIC POWER Awards Banquet. Source: POWER

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POWER January 2012

Powder river basin coal

Unit 8A began commercial operation in 2000. It has an 18.05-MW noncondensing Mitsubishi turbine with an Alstom generator. Steam for Unit 8A is supplied from Unit 8s boiler. Exhaust steam from the units turbine is used to supply a local grain processing facility with steam from two reboilers that flash condensate from the grain company back into process steam for use at the grain processing facility. Unit 9 began commercial operation in 1983. It has a Combustion Engineering (now Alstom Power) T-fired pulverized boiler and a 175-MW GE turbine generator.

Conversion to PRB coal in Units 7 and 8 started in 1998, and both conversions were completed in 1999. Now all MP&W units burn 100% PRB coal. Units 7 and 8 switched to PRB coal in 1999 with a pretty rough start right out of the gate, Costello said. This was a much more difficult task at these older units because they had never been intended to burn PRB coal. The results from these conversion attempts showed our shortcomings in the fall of 1999 when we blew the roofs off both these units as a result of primary and secondary explosions in our bunker galleries (Figures 4 and 5). Fortunately, no one was hurt by these explosions.

boiler manufacturers. Ultimately, these contacts led us to the PRB Coal Users Group, which we have been a member of since 2001, and we have implemented many of the best practices learned from the annual user group meetings. MP&W made the following changes to its regular fire hazard inspections due to the increased volatility of PRB coal: Hotwork procedures were developed. Fire systems were either upgraded or new systems were installed in critical areas. CO2 inerting systems and aqueous filmforming foam systems were installed. Smoke detection systems were installed in electrical rooms.

During 2010, the units delivered the following performance numbers:

Worker Safety: A Paramount Concern


After our explosion/fire in 1999, our management made the commitment to learn everything possible about PRB coal and the safe handling of the coal, Costello said. Many resources were utilizedfrom contacting other power plants to

Unit 7, which experienced 2.52 unplanned outage hours and 2.52 forced outage hours, had a 99.97% availability factor and a 71.82% service factor. Unit 8, which experienced 760.67 unplanned outage hours and 525.9 forced outage hours, had an 84.42% availability factor and a 43.72% service factor. Unit 8A, which experienced 372.93 unplanned outage hours and 134.52 forced outage hours, had an 88.88% availability factor and an 88.88% service factor. Unit 9, which experienced 43.86 unplanned outage hours and 3.28 forced outage hours, had a 99.49% availability factor and a 94.08% service factor.

Costello pointed out that $3.7 million was invested to upgrade all of our areas where we were deficient in regard to fire protection systems. In addition, predictive maintenance schedules had to be set up to meet all the testing criteria of the new systems.

3. Final destination. The Muscatine Power & Water plant owns two trains that deliver PRB coal from Wyoming. Once the coal arrives at the plant, it is processed through a bottom dump rail facility and stockpiled in the coal yard. The largest blue building shown in the photo is Unit 9; the red buildings are Units 7 8, and 8A. The material handling buildings are also blue. Courtesy: MP&W ,

Currently, 130 employees work at the plant and handle operations, maintenance, technical, electrical, material handling, supply chain services, and environmental services.

Making the Switch to PRB Coal


Southern Illinois bituminous coal was used in all three boilers prior to switching to PRB coal, Costello explained. PRB coal comes mostly from Wyoming and Montana. Readers of this magazine are by now familiar with the primary characteristics of PRB coal: It is low in sulfur and heat content, and very volatile if not properly handled and stored. Costello said that the MP&W staff tried multiple PRB test coals, including Eagle Butte, Jacobs Ranch, Black Thunder, and Antelope coal, and now burn coal from the Buckskin and Black Thunder coal mines (Figure 3). No coal is blended. At the MP&W plant, it took approximately a year from start to finish to carry out the initial switch to PRB coal. Leading the conversion process, Unit 9 converted in 1993. Unit 9 was unique in that it was originally designed to burn PRB coal and converted to bituminous coal during construction in 1982, Costello said. So when we converted to PRB coal in 1993 the challenges were minimal.
January 2012 POWER

4. An explosive situation. The explosion and fire that occurred at the Muscatine Power & Water plant in September 1999 was an eye-opening experience that motivated plant personnel to learn about the safe handling of PRB coal. Courtesy: MP&W

5. Hard lesson learned. The explosion that blew the roofs off Units 7 and 8 was caused by primary and secondary explosions in the bunker galleries, shortly after the conversion to PRB coal was completed. Fortunately, no one was hurt as a result of the explosions. Courtesy: MP&W

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Powder river basin coal


Overcoming Fuel-Handling Challenges
After the initial rough start with Units 7 and 8, the MP&W staff instituted a rigorous process to incorporate the best practices and technologies in the industry to minimize problems related to the use of PRB coal. Costello noted that the three units each had a different type of combustion technology, which presented unique operating challenges. In 1999 when the MP&W staff began converting Units 7 and 8, they had Tim Korrs, a B&W representative, come to the plant and do airflow calculations on the total, secondary, and primary airflows. As a result of Korrs findings, the staff reduced the primary air orifice in the duct to allow them to run the damper farther open to help them control primary air better. Costello said that Korrs helped us fine-tune our controls and switched us over from boiler O2 control to fuel/air ratio control, which helped us tremendously. Our cyclone-fired boiler was probably the most challenging, with it having a small fire box and being a pressurized unit, he said. We added Diamond Power Hydro-Jets to Unit 9 for additional wall-cleaning capabilities and a water lance to Unit 8 for additional upper furnace/screen tube cleaning. On the B cyclone in Unit 8, the primary air duct was flush in the secondary air duct. The MP&W staff had trouble with airflow balance and then made an elbow on the primary air duct so that it actually scoops the air out of the secondary air stream. This modification has also helped them to achieve a good airflow balance. Costello added that it takes constant monitoring with visual boiler inspections by the operators to keep the boilers operating efficiently and to prevent any tapping problems. Coal tonnage through the cyclone is a big issue, he said. If we can keep it in the 14 tons/hour range we can do pretty well without gas pilots. Its when we get above that level and most definitely up in the 17-ton range that pilots are needed, especially if burning wet coal or coal that has been on the stockpile for a while and has lost Btus. During the spring 2005 outage, the cyclone casings were re-skinned. Costello explained that this action was taken because we had been experiencing a lot of burn thrown on the cyclone skins. The MP&W staff also increased the horse power on the drive motors in the material handling area so the additional coal tonnage could be fed to the plant. duties as a result of the switch to PRB coal. He emphasized that the staff cannot leave any coal dust lying around or accumulating near coal conveying rollers because PRB coal will self-ignite if exposed to any heat source. Conveyor rooms are washed and swept daily. As part of the plants current cleaning regimen, the operations staff have assigned cleaning areas throughout the plants. Bunker rooms and coal handling out buildings were not originally designed for washdown, he said. Through the conversion process, all areas are now hosed down daily and monitored. During any outage in which coal is left in the bunkers, the bunkers are filled and inerted with CO2. As a standard operating procedure, the MP&W staff does not leave coal in the bunkers any longer than five days. Costello said that the coal is also monitored daily with a laser temperature gun for hotspots along with visual inspections. All bunker doors are kept closed as well.

6. New dust busters. As part of MP&Ws

$5.7 million dust improvement project, more advanced dust collectors and dustless transfer chutes were added, which eliminated the need for several older model dust collectors. Courtesy: MP&W

Creating a Culture of Achievement


Costello listed the reasons why he thinks the Muscatine employees are so successful at carrying out the dual imperatives of efficient plant operations and workplace safety:

7. Protection against electrical hazards. The MP&W staff identified all of

their electrical equipment hazards and developed the facilitys 70E Electrical Protection Program. The use of decals helps to identify the personnel protective equipment needed to safely rack out plant equipment. The staff also went through the plant and reduced as many arc flash areas as possible to lower levels, wherever applicable. Courtesy: MP&W

Aggressive cleaning schedules at the plant. Use of technology to prevent dust accumulation. Development of a comprehensive combustible dust management program. Development and implementation of the National Fire Protection Associations 70E standard for electrical safety in the workplace (Figure 7). Positive attitudes of all the employees. Overall pride in the plant, evidenced by the close-knit employees, who typically are friends, family, and neighbors. A safety culture second to none.

Dealing with Dust


Dust control was one of our biggest challenges, he said. We took a six-phase approach with dust improvement projects totaling $5.7 million, which were started in 2001 and completed in 2009. Multiple technologies where utilized in all areas of the plants material-handling systems. Costello explained that after the plants initial changeover to PRB coal, it took several additional years to implement all of the improvement projects, from fire protection to coalhandling chute modifications and replacements. Other changes involved managing a larger coal pile, adding dust collectors and dust suppression systems, and replacing belt skirtings (Figure 6). Costello also said that the plant had to make significant changes to its regular housekeeping
58 www.powermag.com

Leading by Example
POWER congratulates the management and staff of the Muscatine Power & Water plant for being named the 2011 PRBCUG Small Coal Plant of the Year. As more facilities follow the example set by award-winning facilities like the MP&W plant, the trend toward smarter ways of handling jobsite risks should produce positive, long-lasting results for workplace safety. For further information on the MP&W plant or the plants improvement projects, please contact Mark Costello, maintenance supervisor, at 563-262-3503 or mcostell@ mpw.org. Additional information on the PRBCUG and its awards program is available at www.prbcoals.com.

Angela Neville, JD is POWERs senior editor.


POWER January 2012

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Navigant Announces Coal-Fired Generation Operational Excellence Awards


Navigants Operational Excellence Awards are presented annually to those North American coal-fired generation plants that have demonstrated excellence in cost-efficient reliable plant performance over the preceding five-year period. The data used to select the winners derives from Navigants Generation Knowledge Service fossil database.
By Dale Probasco and Bob Ruhlman, Navigant Consulting Inc.
lectricity produced from coal combustion remains the foundation of the U.S. power generation system. According to the latest available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal-fired generation accounts for 30.7% of the nations installed capacity yet produces 45.9% of the electricity sold in the U.S., based on net summer capacity. The high reliability and affordable cost of electricity produced in large scale from coal has fueled the growth of the U.S. economy and has facilitated many technological advances, which in turn stimulates productivity. To recognize the contribution of coal-fired electricity to our society, Navigant presents annual Operational Excellence Awards to three plants each year, based on average unit size:

Improving reliability trend Predictable reliability performance

Efficient NFOM Cost Management.

Small plant: average unit size less than 200 MW Medium plant: average unit size 200 MW to 500 MW Large plant: average unit size greater than 500 MW

The slate of candidates is taken from those plants that have made continuous data submissions to Navigants Generation Knowledge Service (GKS) for the entire five-year evaluation period. Navigants GKS database contains detailed, unit-level cost and reliability data on more than 2,000 generating units representing more than 400 GW of capacity. The award selection criteria are designed to identify plants that best demonstrate the following characteristics:

60

Efficient nonfuel operation and maintenance (NFOM) cost management High availability

Efficient NFOM is measured using Navigants Normalized Cost Index (NCI), which is the ratio of a plants actual NFOM cost to the predicted cost for the five-year evaluation period. The evaluation also ensures that there are no unusual circumstances affecting the evaluation (such as plants significantly altering their financial and/or operational status due to announced unit retirements). Additionally, NFOM costs include replacement capital to better provide an apples-to-apples comparison. Predicted cost is based on a unit-level NFOM multivariate regression model that includes more than 500 coal units. The cost model utilizes anywhere from eight to 10 statistically significant independent variables, including unit size, boiler cycle technology, fuel characteristics (such as heat content and percent sulfur), scrubbed/unscrubbed, and utilization. The model is very reliable, exhibiting an adjusted R-square value of anywhere from 88% to 92%. To determine the NCI value for any given plant, the actual NFOM plant level spend is divided by the sum of the individual unit-level predicted NFOM values. NCI values >1 suggest that the actual NFOM spend is greater than the predicted value, whereas values <1 suggest the actual NFOM spend is less than the predicted value. For each plant size category, the plant-level NCI values are ordered from lowest to highest to determine the plant rankings for efficient NFOM cost management. High Availability. A plant-level equivalent availability factor (EAF) is calculated
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for the previous five-year period according to the NERC/GADS weighted (capacity-based) performance index pooling unit calculations specified in Appendix F of the GADS data reporting instructions. The plant-level EAF values are ordered from high to low within each plant size category to determine rankings for the availability component. Improving Reliability Trend. This evaluation component seeks to reward plants demonstrating improvement in their reliability over the five-year evaluation period. Equivalent unplanned outage rate (EUOR) was chosen because it incorporates derates and both forced and maintenance outages and is based on actual demand similar to the equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR) calculation. A quarterly plant-level EUOR value is calculated and plotted over the five-year period. The slope of the simple regression line is used to quantify the rate of improvement or degradation in plant reliability. A negative slope indicates an improving trend in reliability, while a positive slope indicates a degrading trend in reliability. The regression slopes are then ordered from low to high in order to determine the plant rankings in the improving reliability category.
Predictable Reliability Performance.

This component captures the negative impact that high-impact/low-probability (HILP) events have on overall plant performance. It is a subtle measure and is not weighted heavily in the overall rankings relative to the three previously listed components. The impact of this component is determined by measuring the amount of variability that exists in the quarterly EUOR data mentioned above. Higher measures of variability are usually associated with HILP-type events. The variability measure is ordered from low to high in order to determine the plant rankings for this category.
POWER January 2012

PLANT O&M
1. Winning plant. AmerenUEs Labadie Energy Center, located in Labadie, Mo., was the winner of Navigants 2011 Operational Excellence
Award in the Large Coal Plant category. Shown in the photo, from left to right, are: David Fox, director, Fossil Generation; David Strubberg, manager, Labadie Energy Center; Dale Probasco, managing director, Navigant; Steven Mooney, chief steward Local Union #148 at Labadie; and Mark Birk, vice president, Power Operations. Courtesy: Navigant Consulting Inc.

Combined Ranking Index


Each of the previous four measurements listed is then weighted according to overall importance (slight variances exist among the three award categories) as determined by the GKS client-based steering committee. For example, availability/reliability measures are weighted somewhat higher for the large plant category because these units typically have higher margins and are more strategically significant than units in the small plant category. Once weighting factors are assigned, an overall Combined Ranking Index is computed within each plant size category. Plants are then ranked with the two best-performing plants in each category selected as award recipients. For 2012, Navigant and the GKS Steering Committee have agreed to add worker safety to the plant selection criteria.

Large Coal Plant Category. Winner: AmerenUEs Labadie Energy Center, located in Labadie, Mo. (Figure 1). Runner-up: Luminants Monticello plant, located in Monticello, Texas.

These six plants averaged 91% EAF, 3.4% EFOR, and a NFOM spending efficiency of 26% less than the NFOM cost model predicted value for the five-year evaluation period.

Key Success Factors


In June 2011, Navigant held its annual Operational Excellence Award meeting for GKS subscribers. At this meeting, plant representatives highlighted the key factors that contributed to their success:

2011 Operational Excellence Award Recipients


Operational Excellence Award recipients for the 20062010 evaluation period were announced in early summer 2012:

Small Coal Plant Category. Winner: Dominion Generations Mecklenburg plant, located in Clarksville, Va. Runner-up: Progress Energys Cape Fear plant, located near Moncure, N.C. Medium Coal Plant Category. Winner: Mid-American Energys Neal Energy Center, located in Sergeant Bluff, Iowa. Runner-up: TVAs Gallatin plant, located in Gallatin, Tenn.

Keep the plant staff lean and individual productivity high while treating people well to maximize individual contributions and worth. Recognize that for most units, major overhauls are the largest source of plant availability loss. Overhauls continue to challenge plant staff with regards to both scope and frequency (that is, increasing intervals). Focus capital investment to eliminate large electrical load reductions. Incorporate strong preventive maintenance and predictive maintenance programs, with a focus on being data-driven and moving toward condition-based decision-making.
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Dale Probasco (dprobasco@ navigant.com) is a managing director and Bob Ruhlman (rruhlman@navigant. com) is an associate director in Navigants Energy Practice.

Be process-driven, with ownership and accountability expected at every level of the organization. Make personnel safety a top priority. Embrace hands-on engineering rather than sitting behind a desk. Implement an Outage Control Center process for all outages (planned maintenance and forced outages). Implement a short-notice outage work process to take maximum advantage of forced and maintenance outages. Recognize that the secret to success is the plants workforce and that people are the No. 1 asset. Look for opportunities to move selected maintenance to operations when qualified people are present. Incorporate an operations and maintenance continuous training program: Perfect Practice Makes Perfect Performance. Accept nothing less than teamwork. Take calculated risks with equipment (but never safety) to maximize spending efficiency. Track daily department-level costs. Maintain expertise in critical equipment and plant operations and bring long-term focus to the decision-making process, thus improving current operation and maintenance cycles.

January 2012 POWER

61

WORKSITE SAFETY

Real-time Proactive Safety in Construction


For each of the past 10 years, nearly 1,200 U.S. construction workers have died as the result of injuries received on the job. Of these fatalities, 25% involved heavy equipmentmost categorized as struck-by incidents. Remote sensing and visualization technology promises to improve worker situational awareness on congested and busy work sites.
By Larry Green, CSP, DuPont and Gary Tominack, Day & Zimmerman
ost large power plant construction projects will consume two or three million man-hours over several years without a contractor experiencing a worker fatality. Contractors for those projects have embraced modern work site safety practices, such as behavioral safety management, onsite traffic flow management, continuous worker training, and policy changes. Despite these apparent safety advancements, the safety record of the entire construction industry lags other industry sectors: about one-quarter of all construction deaths are related to construction equipment and contact collisions (see sidebar).

What happens when the organizational commitment to safety falls short, supervisors and/or employees slip up, and PPE fails? One option is to add an extra level of proactive measures. Proactive, real-time safety programs provide workers on foot and equipment operators in motion with real-time proximity alert devices that can help prevent collision events through an early warning mechanism, a concept recently proven by a trial program sponsored by the Construction Industry Insti-

tute (CII, see sidebar). The system includes a technology protective device and a sitewide visualization system that can work reliably in harsh construction environments.

Technology Field Trial Design


The primary objective of the field trials was to test an integrated, proactive, real-time safety technology that increases situational awareness and safety on construction sites. The equipment worn by workers or installed

No. 1 Cause of Construction Injuries: Collisions


Center for Disease Control (CDC) construction accident data for 2009 shows that there were 834 fatal on-the-job injuries to construction workers, representing 19% of all work-related deaths. Thats down from 975 in 2008. CDC data also shows that of 465 vehicle-related construction fatalities (1992 through 1998 data), 318 of the victims were workers on foot, and the equipment commonly involved in the collisions was trucks (60%) and large construction equipment (30%). Of the 465 fatalities, 110 involved equipment operators; the remaining 37 involved supervisors or other workers. Fiftyone percent of the fatalities occurred when a vehicle was operated in reverse. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration construction worker fatality database for the period 1990 through 2007 reveals similar data. For collisions involving forklifts, skid steer loaders, scrapers, and backhoe loaders, 36% to 88% of the fatalities involved workers on foot. Although there is no data available that identifies the specific cause of those workerconstruction equipment collisions, anecdotal information indicates that collisions are usually caused by either a lack of worker experience, appreciation of the risk factors, or loss of situational awareness caused by construction site distractions.

Safety Best Practices and Technology


OSHA regulations help establish construction site safety policies and procedures. For example, OSHA mandates the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in particular work environments, including hard hats, safety shoes, goggles, face shields, reflective clothing such as safety vests, heavy or thin (leather) gloves, hearing protection, wet weather gear, and respirators or filter masks. These types of PPE are passive safety devices, because they do not proactively warn or provide feedback to the wearer. A passive approach to safety is not sufficient to prevent the occurrence of contact collisions between workers and moving construction equipment. Safety education and training are forms of proactive safety that are routinely conducted to increase workers ability to recognize and avoid construction hazards. However, the behavior of individuals on a construction site is not predictable and is often affected by factors such as fatigue and distractions. Nonetheless, it remains each workers responsibility to follow the rules, guidelines, and best safety practices. Proactive safety, perhaps better described as a worker having situational awareness, also does not prevent contact collisions.
62

What Is the Construction Industry Institute?


The Construction Industry Institute (CII) is a consortium of more than 100 leading owner, engineering-contractor, and supplier firms from both the public and private sectors that have joined together to improve the business effectiveness and sustainability of capital facilities delivery. The CII is engaged in creating and implementing research-based knowledge, developing best practices, and identifying breakthrough strategies that measurably improve project performance, giving members a competitive edge in the marketplace. The CII is based at the University of Texas at Austin. For more information, visit www.construction-institute.org.

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POWER January 2012

WORKSITE SAFETY
in the cab of operating equipment is designed to warn of the presence of potential hazards, particularly heavy equipment, to reduce the percentage of struck-by incidents. These devices are available today from several suppliers but are seldom found in use. The second part of the field trial was designed to combine individual signals from each worker and piece of equipment to form a visual display of the location of all resources on the construction site. By using visualization and predictive software to show real-time movement of equipment and workers, contact collisions can be avoided. Warning Workers. When workers, equipment, and even materials are too close to each other, this real-time system activates visual, auditory, and vibrating alerts to warn both workers on foot and equipment operators. The field-tested devicesknown as equipment and personal protection unitswere tested on workers on foot and on operating equipment on the selected job sites. The in-cab device on operating vehicles was equipped with an equipment protection unit (EPU) that consisted of a single antenna, a reader, and an alarm. The personal protection unit (PPU) consisted of a chip, a battery, and an alarm. The term personal was used because post-trial interviews revealed that workers like to identify themselves with the safety devicesthey like to own them. Although the user can define the signal strength of the EPU for each piece of equipment, the signal is typically transmitted in a radial manner and loses strength with distance. The PPU then intercepts the signal at a useradjustable distance and automatically returns the signal such that both systems trigger their internal alarms. The operation of sending and receiving information is instantaneous; the whole process occurs in real time. Figures 1 and 2 show the EPU/PPU equipment during field trials. The PPUs are durable, wearable, and come in different sizes. For a typical PPU, the casing is sturdy and can stand up to the daily weathering that occurs on construction sites. The devices are powered with conventional AA batteries and last for at least two months, depending on the frequency of alerts. Lightemitting-diode (LED) lights indicate when batteries are low on power and need to be recharged. The audible alarm that occurs on both the EPU and PPU is of sufficient strength to get the attention of workers and operators. The alarm emits a unique sound that is different from those common on construction sites. The PPU also has a vibrating alarm so that workers are notified even if wearing hearing protection or when working in an area with loud construction noises. Vibration alerts have the drawback of not working well when workers wear heavy coats in cold weather. Sitewide Safety Net. These radio frequencybased EPU/PPU devices were then used to develop a sitewide net that recorded accurate location, proximity, and trajectory data of up to 50 construction workers, equipment, and materials in real time. Proximity data of worker locations were automatically processed and put into a visual format to inform equipment operators of the presence of workers not visible or to provide managers with an overall view of site activity. A second advantage of the sitewide safety net is that the data retrieved from these devices can generate information from previously unreported events, such as close calls. This never-before-available information can lead to additional significant changes in orga-

trials. Courtesy: CII

1. Predict collisions.

Alert devices were placed on workers and equipment during field

3. Worker-to-vehicle alert.

EPU Battery PPU Battery

EPU

An alert inside the open cabin is shown by the illuminated LED lights in front of the equipment operator. At the same time, the worker receives an audio alert. The equipment protection unit is compact and can fit into an equipment cab without creating any visual or mechanical obstruction. In addition to the helmet, the personal protection unit can be worn on the belt of the worker or around the arm with an arm band. Courtesy: CII

2. Double safe. Alerts are sent to workers on foot and equipment operators inside the cabin when a set proximity is reached. Courtesy: CII
Visual and audio alert EPU

PPU Audio alert Within proximityactive warning/alert


January 2012 POWER

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63

WORKSITE SAFETY
nizational safety practices. The technology to collect and analyze this data was developed as part of this project and is not currently commercially available. operator is able to activate the EPU/PPU alert system only during lifts. In contrast, scrapers can travel up to 37 miles per hour and thus may require earlier activated alerts at longer distances to ensure the safety of nearby workers. All distance measurements included the operators reaction time and the distance required to stop the vehicle. The most complex tests of the proactive, real-time proximity warning devices were performed on two large coal power plant projects being constructed by CII members. One of the tests involved large earth-moving equipment and lasted for several months. About 20 workers were provided PPUs, and the 30 pieces of equipment were equipped with EPUs. By the end of the study period, this project had performed 100,000 accidentfree work hours.

Worker Tracking and Data Visualization


The PPU/EPU trials also included a series of location tracking tests. For these tests, the helmets of construction workers were tagged with ultra-wideband, real-time location tracking technology on a typical worksite (Figure 4). Computers recorded the location of tagged resources, and the information was displayed to safety decision-makers in remote locations (Figure 5). Finally, the location of workers, equipment, and materials on a work site were reported in a 3-D virtual display environment (Figure 6).

Worksite Technology Testing


The system testing occurred at a broad spectrum of construction sites. The team selected 15 construction sites in the southeastern U.S.: five small to large building construction sites; seven small commercial construction sites; two large industrial construction sites; and one union ironworker indoor training facility. The value of the construction work ranged from $2 million to $1 billion, and the number of construction workers employed ranged from 15 to 2,000. The number of pieces of motorized construction equipment used on site ranged from five to 250. Testing was performed with the proximity warning devices on different types of construction equipment, including wheel loaders, forklifts, graders, forklifts, dozers, excavators, articulated dump trucks, and mobile cranes. Each piece of equipment was directed to travel toward a simulated work crew. The operator was then asked to stop the machine once the audible or visual alert was activated within the equipment cabin (Figure 3). The distance between work crew and equipment was measured, recorded, and analyzed. For each test, the worker on foot and equipment operator were then interviewed. Once familiarity with the equipment was completed, long-term testing was conducted (see table). Five PPUs of the same configuration were tested in the preliminary field trials. Because each equipment type may require its own unique signal strength, setting the warning and alert distances at a lower level reduces the number of nuisance alerts. The shortest empirical warning and alert distance from EPU to PPU was 2.8 meters (9.2 feet). Cranes, for example, are static and alerts may only be needed when a lift is performed. The

Worker Feedback
At the beginning and end of each field trial, participants were asked their opinions about using the proximity and tracking de-

Field trials test summary.

Distance measurements were made for a proactive, real-time proximity alert device with static and dynamic construction equipment in realistic construction environments (with obstructions present). A total of 193 equipment tests at 15 different construction locations covering more than 100,000 accident-free work hours are included in the data. Source: CII Average recorded alert distance (m) 11.9 17.8 31.5 24.5 23.4 35.6 34.0 Minimum recorded alert distance (m) 10.6 12.7 25.5 7.8 2.8 19.0 8.9 Maximum recorded alert distance (m) 13.6 29.9 50.2 43.0 38.0 50.0 62.5

Equipment type Dynamic Personnel mover Loader/forklift Grader and scraper Static Dozer Excavator Articulated dump truck Mobile crane

Number of trials 4 11 10 8 8 72 80

5. Real-time rendering. Real-time location tracking of workers, equipment, and material are
shown in a plan view of the work site shown in Figure 4. The worker temporarily stepped out of the way while the crane was swinging; other workers continued to work in their positions. Courtesy: CII UWB tag Crane hook-671D 1Hz Crane cabinet-6726 1Hz Worker 0BC6-15Hz Worker-781E 60Hz Worker 2523-30Hz Worker-588C 15Hz Waiting zone #1 A B C Other workers remain in their position Waiting zone #3 Waiting zone #2

4. Busy construction site. Movements


of a crane, tractor and trailer, and workers on foot on this typical worksite were followed with real-time location tracking. Courtesy: CII

Crane swinging

Trajectory of a worker stepping out of the way of the load

64

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POWER January 2012

WORKSITE SAFETY
6. Visualize the data. This is an example of a 3-D immersive visualization interface in which visually obscured workers are made visible to a crane operator on the same work site shown in Figure 4. These work site visualizations can be provided in real time in the equipment cabin or at any other location. Source: CII

7. The field team. A Georgia Tech professor, students, and volunteers performed the field surveys. Source: CII

vices. A total of 143 equipment operators and workers at the 15 sites completed the survey. All equipment operators surveyed volunteered to use the EPU warning devices. Four of the nine equipment operators reported multiple instances when the alarms sounded when they were not aware of possible danger. Although one worker commented on the desirability of making the device smaller, the size of the equipment was not judged intrusive by the remainder. Overall, the equipment operators agreed that they would use the warning devices again, if they were made available by their company. There were 36 field workers, welders, carpenters, rod busters, and other trades who tested the PPU. Site managers and supervisors were also interviewed. Nearly all reported feeling safer on the site during the trial. Workers stated that there were numerous situations in which the alarms sounded due to materials or equipment passing overhead. Three workers reported discomfort due to the size of the device and its placement on the side of their hardhats. One foreman suggested that it would be better to embed the warning device inside the helmet. All but two workers agreed that they would wear the PPU again. At one construction site, the contractor decided to purchase the PPU/EPU for every worker on site at the close of the test program. Each PPU cost $400 and each EPU device cost $1,000. The total cost of the warning devices was $120,000 for this project. The contractor reports two
January 2012 POWER

potentially serious accidents, perhaps fatal accidents, that were prevented by using the warning devices. The devices are even more cost-effective because they will be reused on many future projects, perhaps saving additional lives. The rate of return on that investment is incalculable.

could also be used for accident reconstruction, monitoring confined spaces, keeping workers out of danger areas, and tracking work processes to improve construction efficiency. What follows these very successful field trials? We hope the encouraging results will motivate a company willing to invest in further development of the real-time tracking and visualization technology and bring an integrated product to market. It is not overly dramatic to say that lives will be saved when this technology becomes standard practice on every work site.

Much Work Remains


The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the safety improvement potential when using real-time location tracking of workers, equipment, and material on a busy and congested work site. The sensors worked as designed, and the proximity warning, alerts, tracking and monitoring, and remote real-time data visualization tests were very successful. Workers surveyed after each trial said they generally found the PPU nonintrusive. Based on post-trial reports, the equipment enhanced work site safety, recorded previously unreported incidents, and prevented possibly two fatalities (Figure 7). Further improvements in the operation of the PPU/EPU are possible, particularly with regard to signal propagation in the construction site environment, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, mounting position and orientation of the devices on workers and equipment, obstacles (metal or wooden) in the construction field, and multipath effects during signal transmission. Further work is required to reduce the size and weight of the PPU and optimize the placement of sensors on workers. The location signals
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Larry Green is senior safety, health, and environmental consultant for DuPont Global Operations and Engineering. Gary Tominack is corporate director, safety engineering & field services for Day & Zimmerman. Dr. Jimmie Hinze, Holland Professor in the M.E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction and Director of the Center for Construction Safety and Loss Control at the University of Florida, and Dr. Jochen Teizer, assistant professor and director of the RAPIDS Construction Safety and Technology Laboratory, Georgia Institute of Technology, were the principal investigators for this project. Members of the Real-time Pro-active Safety in Construction Research Team include: Chanel T. Carter, Bechtel Group Inc.; Dennis Cobb, ConocoPhillips; Clay Gardenhire, The Shaw Group Inc.; Tony C. Palma, Ontario Power Generation; Calvin Price, SNC-Lavalin Inc.; Manny Vahanian, U.S. General Services Administration; and Jason Valliere, SNC-Lavalin Inc. Other organizations and companies that provided assistance on the project were ProTran1, Leica Geosystems, the National Science Foundation, The Shaw Group Inc., XYZ Solutions, VWM Construction Co., Southern Company, and Evans Construction Co.
65

new products
A Wireless Cellular Controller

to power Your BusIness

Xenon has introduced the T925 Wireless Cellular Controller for connecting remote sites with central control and monitoring stations through cellular networks. A T925 remote communications network eliminates the need to make hardwired Ethernet connections to the Internet or an intranet at each remote site and the central control and monitoring station. The network operates from any location worldwide with cellular coverage. The T925 allows end users, machine and skid builder original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), remote terminal unit and supervisory control and data acquisition OEMs, security monitoring system OEMs, and other firms to monitor and control their automation and monitoring systems through the cellular network at sites thousands of miles away. Typical applications include pipelines, pump stations and electrical substations. The T925 can be connected to a variety of components at a remote site and accept up to seven Ethernet inputs as well as four digital inputs, four analog inputs, and two temperature inputs. (www.xenoninc.com)

Universal Voltmeter Kit

HDEs newly launched DVM-80UVK Universal Voltmeter Kit expands features of the DVM-80 series voltmeter and includes several accessories that enable voltmeter and phasing operations for virtually all overhead and underground applications. HDE is offering the kit as a complete, ready-to-use universal voltmeter package. It includes a dual-stick phasing voltmeter with overhead hook probes for use on voltages of up to 40 kV; add-on resistor sticks for measurements up to 80 kV; underground bushing probes; a cable-fault tester; a voltmeter proof tester; shotgun hotstick adapters; and a soft-sided, multifunctional carrying bag with built-in bucket hooks. (www.HDElectricCompany.com)

Nonmetallic Pump/Tank Carts Caustics, Acids


A new nonmetallic Mobile Pump/Tank Cart from Vanton Pump and Equipment Corp. transfers wastewater and caustic/acidic chemicals with no corrosion and ultrapure fluids with no contamination. All fluid contact surfaces of the tank, base plate, and secondary containment chamber are of solid polypropylene, polyethylene, PVC, or other inert thermoplastic, precluding corrosion across the entire pH range. The pump, a Flex-I-Liner model CC-PY12B, utilizes a rotor mounted on an eccentric shaft to push fluid trapped between a flexible elastomer liner and a solid thermoplastic body block at flows up to 2 gpm (7.6 lpm), pressures to 25 psig (1.72 bar), and temperatures to 185F (85C). The company also offers other mobile and stationary tank/pump systems equipped with larger Flex-I-Liner pumps to handle higher flows. (www.vanton.com)

66

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POWER January 2012

NEW PRODUCTS

V-Return Style Conveyor Belt Tracking System

ASGCO, a manufacturer of proprietary bulk conveyor components and accessories, announced a new addition to its line of Tru-Trainer conveyor belt tracking idlers: a V-Return style of the companys Dual Return Tru-Trainer Conveyor Belt Tracker. Tru-Trainer idlers react as the conveyor belt moves off center, maintaining the belts original position, minimizing belt wear and conveyor downtime. The V-Return Tru-Trainer is best for v-return overland conveyor systems. An external central pivot mechanism was designed, obviating the need for a single, large drum and enabling a concentric and balanced rotation to be achieved. This results in extended bearing life and a very fast and effective conveyor belt tracking system. (www.asgco.com)

Advanced PV Tracking System

SunPower has introduced the SunPower C7 Tracker, a solar photovoltaic (PV) tracking system that concentrates the suns power seven times to achieve what the company claims could be the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar power plants available today. The C7 Tracker combines single-axis tracking technology with rows of parabolic mirrors, reflecting light onto 22.8% efficient SunPower Maxeon solar cells. Using mirrors to reduce the number of solar cells required to generate electricity lowers the LCOE by up to 20% compared to competing technologies, the company says. For example, a 400-MW C7 Tracker power plant requires less than 70 MW of SunPower solar cells. The C7 Tracker uses modular solar cell receivers, allowing for future upgrades. The SunPower advanced Tracker Monitoring and Control System provides wireless control of the power plant for increased operating efficiency and reduced maintenance cost. (us.sunpowercorp.com)

Columbia Research Laboratories has introduced the Model VM-300 vibration meter, a general purpose vibration-measuring instrument designed for periodic routine checks of industrial equipment where portability and ease of use are required. Acceleration, velocity, and displacement measurement modes are provided, along with a number of value-enhancing features. Dual power allows the VM-300 to be powered from its internal battery in the field or from an AC adapter to save battery life in bench applications. A precision low-voltage lockout circuit prevents the VM-300 from making erroneous readings due to low battery. An automatic 10-minute timeout during battery operation will not allow the meter to drain the battery while unattended. An optional printer can be connected to the meter for permanently recording measurements. (www.crlsensors.com)

Handheld Vibration Meter

Inclusion in New Products does not imply endorsement by POWER magazine.


January 2012 POWER

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67

POWER PROFESSIONALS
Opportunities in Operations and Maintenance, Project Engineering and Project Management, Business and Project Development, First-line Supervision to Executive Level Positions. Employer pays fee. Send resumes to:
P.O. Box 87875 Vancouver, WA 98687-7875 email: dwood@powerindustrycareers.com (360) 260-0979 l (360) 253-5292 www.powerindustrycareers.com

Power Plant Buyers Mart


POSITION ANNOUNCEMENT
MAINTENANCE MANAGER
(Senior Staff Position that reports directly to the General Manager)

DESCRIPTION

The Maintenance Manager is responsible for the planning and execution of all mechanical, electrical, instrument and control maintenance for the facility. The position is also responsible for the identification and control of all spare parts and replacement parts so as to maximize availability, reliability and power production. The position also provides supervision of maintenance activities and contractor personnel.

Distributed Energy Storage (DES) Project/product Manager


Exp. required to work in Lake Mary, FL. Travel Req. Submit resume to ABB Inc., www.ABB.com, Careers. Must ref job code NB51308651B .

PRIMARY DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES:

Need help? Need a job?


SERVICES LINEAL RECRUITING
Contact Lisa Lineal in confidence

www.Lineal.com LisaLineal@Lineal.com

Provide safe working environment and promote attitude of safety awareness of all plant personnel including actively ensuring the safety of others. Ensure personnel safety, equipment safety and high availability and reliability at minimum cost by maintaining and supervising personnel responsible for the maintenance of all facility equipment. Ensure continuity of maintenance through the maintenance training and development of personnel Prepare and adhere to approved budget for maintenance Implement the plants preventive and predictive maintenance program, including failure records in order to provide trend information to the General Manager. Primarily responsible for planning maintenance outages using effective time management principles and input from other Department Heads. In addition, will observe progress of work to evaluate efficiency and work quality, while keeping the General Manager aware of progress. Responsible for ensuring compliance with the Reliability Compliance Program Prepare and present Committee and Board Reports as required

Toll free 877-386-1091


Electric Power Systems & Service Specialists Se habla Espaol

REQUIREMENTS:

Project Manager Material Handling Systems Dearborn Mid-West Conveyor Co. Please visit http://www.dmwcc.com/ and click on Careers to apply. Equal Opportunity Employer.

Bachelor of Science degree in engineering or equivalent, plus minimum of 5 years of lignite/coal power industry experience is required; or a high school diploma plus 15 years of lignite/coal power industry related experience Minimum of 3 5 years as Maintenance Manager for a lignite/coal fired power plant Excellent technical skills in the operation and maintenance of turbine/steam generating systems, specifically calibration, repair and maintenance of instruments and controls Proven ability to lead people and communicate effectively and appropriately Please submit resume with cover letter and salary requirements to Sherry Wilkerson at swilkerson@smeci.net or fax to (830) 784-3411

You Read POWER. How Would You Like to Work for POWER ?
POWER has an immediate opening for an Editor/ Content Manager in Houston, Rockville, Md. or Norwalk, Conn. (telecommuting is also an option from anywhere in the continental U.S.). As part of a multi-platform publishing team, you will enjoy working for a rmly established print brand that is also making the best use of current and emerging publishing platforms. This is an ideal position for an energetic mid-career individual looking for excellent advancement potential. This position will be primarily responsible for writing and producing a natural gas electronic magazine and related products. Other core responsibilities include a wide range of writing and editing tasks involving print and online publications, social media, and events, including webinars. The ability to quickly learn to use various digital tools is a must. JOB REQUIREMENTS Candidates should have a four-year degree in engineering plus experience writing in or about the power industry OR have a four-year journalism or communications degree with experience writing about or for the power industry. Candidates should be able to demonstrate their ability to clearly communicate technical ideas in writing to both a technical and nontechnical audience, with minimal editorial assistance. Strong oral communication skills are also necessary, as the selected candidate will interact with industry executives and decision makers as well as speak at industry events. Expertise in a particular area of the power generation industry (especially gas-red technologies) is preferred.

Please submit resume and cover letter with salary requirements, along with writing samples or links to writing samples, to apply@accessintel.com or fax to 646-607-9058. Be sure to tell us where you saw this position advertised.
READER SERVICE NUMBER 200
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Power Plant Buyers Mart


To Advertise in

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Classifieds

CONTACT

Diane Hammes
PhONe

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FAX

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POWER January 2012

Advertisers index
Enter reader service numbers on the FREE Product Information Source card in this issue.
Page www.appliedbolting.com Reader Service Number www.rentechboilers.com Page Reader Service Number

Applied Bolting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . 19 Chromalloy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . . . . . . 10


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Fenner dunlop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 . . . . . . . . . 13
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shaw Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . 2
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Fluor Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 . . . . . . . . . 11
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stanley Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 . . . . . . . . . 17
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General Physics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . 4
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tiC

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Hitachi Power systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 3 . . . . . . . . . 20


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tyco Flow Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . 3


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Magnetrol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 . . . . . . . . . 16
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victaulic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . 5
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Metalfab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . 7
www.metalfabinc.com

Westinghouse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 . . . . . . . . . 15
www.westinghousenuclear.com

Mitsubishi Power systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . 21


www.mpshq.com

Williams Patent Crusher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 . . . . . . . . . 14


www.williamscrusher.com

nol-tec systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 . . . . . . . . . . 9
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Orion instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 . . . . . . . . . 18
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ClAssiFied AdvertisinG
Pages 68-70 . to place a classified ad, contact dianne Hammes, 713-343-1885, dianeh@powermag .com

Passavant-Geiger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . 8
www.passavant-geiger.de

POWER
From the editors of POWER: The online magazine devoted to the coal-fired power generation industry
Te c h n o l o g i e s f o r c o a l - f i r e d p o w e r p l a n t s a r e e v o l v i n g ra p i d l y , a n d COA L P O W E R h a s e v o l v e d t o o . I n i t s l a t e s t o n l i n e f o r m a t y o u g e t everything you valued in print and so much more:
A c c e s s t o COAL POWE R w h e r e v e r y o u c a n u s e a b r o w s e r. Te c h n i c a l a r t i c l e s , c o a l p o w e r n e w s , b l o g s , o p i n i o n , a n d i n f o r m a t i o n . E a s y r e t r i e v a l o f a r c h i v e d COAL POWE R f e a t u r e s . Instant access to our advertisers for more information about their products. The ability to comment on stories and share your knowledge with the c o a l - b u r n i n g p o w e r p l a n t c o m m u n i t y. Job board.

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January 2012 POWER

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71

Commentary

Upbraiding the Utilities


By Dr. Paul Michael Grant
es, youve read it right. Upbraiding, not upgrading. Twenty-six years ago, in early 1986, Georg Bednorz and Alex Mueller discovered high-temperature superconductivity in the family of copper oxide perovskites. The field exploded later that year and in early 1987 when Paul Chu and his collaborators at the Universities of Houston and Alabama sighted telltale signs of superconductivity onsets above the boiling point of liquid nitrogen, 77K. These developments unleashed a flurry of studies, especially in the U.S. and Japan, predicting markets eventually exceeding several hundreds of billions of dollars, mostly centered around electric power applications.

No Technology Takers

25 Years of Investment

The summit of this euphoria occurred in July 1987, when President Ronald Reagan convened the White House Conference on Superconductivity in the ballroom of the Hilton Hotel in central Washington, D.C. The president announced a series of initiatives that were embodied in the Superconductivity Competitiveness Act of 1988. This legislation created the Department of Energy Initiative for Power Applications of Superconductivity, a $30 million (average) annual program designed to upgrade American electric utilities and power equipment manufacturers to face the looming energy demand challenges of the coming 21st century. After retiring from IBM in 1993 to join the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), I became actively involved in the DOE efforts as a co-funder, peer reviewer, and, yes, an occasional congressional lobbyist. So, here we are today, almost 25 years since that first conference and $700 million to $800 million dollars later, plus perhaps half that amount additionally invested by the private sector. Numerous successful demonstrations, employing both low- and high-temperature superconductors, in almost every type of power equipmentcables, transformers, rotating machinery, fault current limiters, storage and power conditioning deviceshave been undertaken in America and elsewhere. The U.S. National Laboratoriesparticularly Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Brookhavenin conjunction with private companies such as American Superconductor and SuperPower, have developed highperformance, second generation, long-length (hundreds of meters), and reliable superconducting tape suitable for deployment in all the above applications. Several U.S. utilities have very generously donated talent and facilities, and redirected a portion of their EPRI dues for financial assistance in support of such efforts. The fruits of their labors now sit on the shelf awaiting insertion into the American electric power infrastructure. Beginning in 2010, funding for the Power Applications of Superconductivity program was removed as a line item in the DOEs congressional appropriation, and I believe justifiably so. If Ronald Reagan were still with us, he might say, albeit perhaps tongue-in-cheek, Mission accomplished.
72

Why has not a single U.S. investor-owned utility yet, on its own nickel, picked the fruits of our national effort? One often hears, the high cost of the wire or the hassle factor. The hassle factor involves such locutions as, electricity is cheap and our in-plant and in-field efficiencies are pretty good right now, so theres no compelling reason to implement incremental increases of only a few percent, or any new technology that involves a new skill set can lead to tedious negotiations with our labor unions, or anyway, our grid infrastructure works pretty well right now and when there are outages its responding just as it was designed to do. At IBM, when we would review the commercial potential of a particular new technology, part of the process would involve asking, What if the product were free? Would our customers still buy it? If the wire were free, would American utilities then buy it? And how could we bring that about? Zero cost would be obtained in the form of a federal-state tax credit (not a subsidy!) to the equipment manufacturer or utility for the wire cost alone associated with a given application, not to packaging such as insulation and cryogenics, or actual installation.

Many New Barriers to Development

One also often hears that the day of superconductivity in power will dawn with the large-scale build-out of renewable electricity generation, which I take to comprise principally wind, solar, and biomass. The argument goes that new connection cabling to grid and storage substations will be necessary, so why not use superconductivity? Also, the advantageous power-to-weight ratio of a superconducting generator makes its deployment on high wind towers quite attractive. However, from my point of view, such an occurrence in the U.S. is extremely problematic given present basic and, likely future as well, American political and social views about living space. Anyone who has ever visited a wind farm certainly doesnt want one in his or her backyard, and not even on the horizon. Wind, solar, and biomass are massively ecoinvasive. The North American continent is awash in fossil fuel reserves, arguably the largest reserves in the world. Under such circumstances, it is likely its inhabitants will continue to oxidize as many carbon atoms as possible. So, when will the sun finally rise on large-scale power applications of superconductivity? Dr. Paul M. Grant (w2agz@w2agz.com), an IBM research staff member emeritus and an EPRI science fellow (retired), held an visiting scholar appointment at Stanford University and is currently an adjunct staff associate at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Cal Tech. Portions of this editorial appeared in the Summer 2011 issue of Cold Facts, the magazine of the Cryogenic Society of America (www.cryogenicsociety.org) and are reproduced by permission.
POWER January 2012

www.powermag.com

Hitachi Power Systems America


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