Managing Market Research and Forecasting

By Obaid Pervaiz Gill

Addressed Questions
What constitutes good marketing research?

What is the market research process?

How can marketers assess their marketing expenditure? How can companies more accurately measure and forecast

demand?

A mini case of SIGG

Swiss bottle producer has been selling its aluminium water

and fuel bottles to the US outdoor market. The bottles were sold at twice the price of closest competitors. Swiss reputation was assumed to drive sales; but it went down after launch. Market research revealed that people were worried of tasting metal in water and did not like the flashy bottle design as well. What would you do given the insights?

The Market Research System

Marketing managers commission studies for problems and

opportunities. It is the job of marketing researcher to produce insights into customer buying behaviour Marketing Insights provide diagnostic information about how and why we observe certain effects in the marketplace and what that means to marketers Market Research is the systematic design, collection, analysis and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation. In-House Research: Orange Labs; marketers, researchers and professional groups

Research for Companies

For Large Companies: Syndicated-service research firms (TNS Gallup, Euromonitor) Custom marketing research firms (The Hermelin Group) Specialty-line marketing research firms (Field-service firm;

Interviews) For Small Companies: Engaging students or Professors (Innovation Challenge for MBAs; Mars, Hilton, IBM, Whirlpool) Using the internet (Websites, chat rooms, published data etc.) Checking out rivals (Chefs visit competing restaurants)

A mini case of HWL

Hutchison Whampoa Limited owns 3 Mobile in the UK and

was the pioneer in 3G service (wireless broadband). Since then three has been a first mover in HSDPA (100 times faster than GSM) Signed an exclusive deal with ITV1 in UK to provide TV on mobile phones. It was the first one to introduce MSN messenger as a mobile service. Why was 3 so successful and gave its competitors a run for their money?

Step 1: Define the Problem, decision alternative and research objectives

A problem should neither be narrowly nor broadly defined. 3 should find out whether customer would be willing to spend 30 a

month to break even in two years versus Will our investment increase our market share Effective way is to spell out a decision and then work backwards If 3 should offer a mobile phone service then should it be tailored to a specific market group, if yes then what should be its price etc. Not all research projects are specific; some are Exploratory (finding real nature of problem), Descriptive (seeks to quantify variables; demand), Causal (finds cause and effect relationship)

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

It involves planning for gathering the needed information and

estimating its costs. To design a research plan we need to make decisions about the data sources, research approaches, sampling plan and contact methods. Data Sources: Secondary (already exists, collected for some other purpose; government data), Primary (freshly gathered for a research project; supermarket consumer in Karachi) Companies usually start from secondary data. Why do you think it is like that?

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Research Approaches: It can be carried out in five ways;

Observational research: It includes observing the relevant

actors and settings (Informal interviews at a cafe; Photographs can also elicit information) Ethnographic Research draws its basis from anthropology and other social science disciplines to provide deeper understand of how people live and work (Lidl and the Ogilvy retail audit; Intel and the Allscripts Healthcare Solution)

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Focus Group Research: It is a gathering of, 6 to 10 people

carefully chosen based certain demographic or psychographic considerations to discuss an interest at length. It is a good exploratory step but extreme care should be taken to avoid generalizing from focus group participants to the whole market. Focus groups confirm what you already know (DDB Needham and SignBank; Internet and Internal company records)

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Survey Research: They are undertaken to learn about

peoples knowledge, beliefs, preferences and satisfaction to measure the magnitudes of general population. It can be done through questions to a customer panel run by the company itself or other company It can also be done by asking people questions in places such as shopping malls. Star Tours (Scandinavian Travel Agency) collects information form people at the end of their holiday.

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Behavioural Data: Customers leave traces of their purchasing

behaviour in store scanning data, catalogue purchases and customer databases. Grocery data shows that high income people dont necessarily buy expensive brands and low income people often buy expensive brands (M & S) Experimental Research: It is designed to capture cause and effect data by eliminating competing explanations. 3 might introduce two packages for mobile internet; one at 25 and other at 35, given that same number of people visited the store it can draw inferences (SZABIST fee and student intake)

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Research instruments: These are the tools for collecting

primary data. Questionnaire: It consists of questions presented to respondents Types include Close Ended (all possible answers are given) and Open Ended (often reveal more) Close ended can be Dichotomous, Multiple Choice, Likert Scale etc. Open ended can be Unstructured, Word Associations, Story Completions, Picture etc.

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Qualitative Measures: It involves working with non-numerate

findings. Some researcher prefer it because it reveals deeper insights. It can also come as a first step towards exploratory research associated with concepts such as customers brand and product perceptions. Qualitative Research Approaches; Word Associations; Projective Techniques (bubble exercises), Brand Personification, Laddering etc. [Activity]

A mini case of LEGO

Its a Danish toy company offering creative and high quality

toys for children. It has effectively used qualitative research over the recent years. It has established long-lasting relationships with day care centres to test its offerings. Video filming is used and the data is later analyzed. If you were to research students taking up programmes at SZABIST where would you start?

A mini case of Google

Internet giant Google tests its services in many global

markets. It has realized that Japan provides the most refined test audience. Users are given mobile phones and are asked to perform tasks such as finding a location, searching a product on web etc. What is the key benefit that Google can derive of its research?

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Sampling Plan: It asks the questions of; Sampling Unit; Who should we survey? Sample Size; How many people should we survey? Sampling Procedure; How should we choose the respondents? Types of Sampling:

Probability Sample: Simple Random Sample (equal chance of

selection), Stratified Random Sample (random sample from groups), Cluster Sample (sample of groups are drawn) Non-probability Sample: Convenience Sample (most accessible people), Judgement Sample (selecting good prospects for information), Quota Sample (prescribed number of people in each category)

Step 2: Develop the Research Plan

Contact Methods: Mail Questionnaires (PhD Research),

Telephone Interview (Nix Telefon; The Swedish counter), Personal Interview (Arranged Interviews; reservation and small fee, Intercept Interviews; people and shopping malls), Online Interview (Seth Diamond: Kraft Foods) Online research tends to be fast, inexpensive, versatile and honest.

Step 3: Collect the Information

It is the most expensive part of research and highly prone to

errors. It can have majors problems such as; Respondents are not at home Respondents refuse to participate Respondents deceive or lie Interviewer is biased One of the biggest obstacles to collecting information globally can be consistency Nan Martin, Synovate

Step 4: Analyze the Information

It involves tabulating the data and then developing frequency

distributions. It may also involve testing different hypotheses and theories. It may also include applying a sensitivity analysis to test the assumptions and strength of the conclusion.

Step 5: Present the Findings

Researchers are expected to play role of a consultant by

interpreting and translating the data. They are expected to present the information in an understandable and compelling fashion. One interesting way of presenting complex and information rich findings is through visual and artistic collages

Step 6: Make the Decision

The manager who commissions the research needs to weigh

in evidence. Their confidence in the research will suggest a new product or no product launch. Marketing Decision Support System is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools and techniques, with supporting software and hardware. It gathers and interprets relevant information to provide a basis for marketing action. (ABN AMRO; Hong Kong, CRM)

Barriers to Research
A narrow conception of the research (fact finding operation)

Uneven calibre of researchers (weak training and low

creativity) Poor framing of the problem (Coca Cola; taste over brand) Late and erroneous findings Personality and presentational differences (line manager v/s marketing researchers)

A mini case of Star Wars

A General Foods executive opened a research venture.

A studio handed him a science fiction film to predict its

success This film was researched to be a failure given the fact that it had war in its name. The film (Star Wars) turned out to be a million dollar enterprise. What is the key learning from this example?

Forecasting and Demand Measurement

The aim is to forecast the size, growth, and profit potential of

each opportunity. Market Demand can be measured at a 3x3 matrix of Space Level (World, Europe, Region, Territory, Customer), Product Level (All sales, Industry sales, Company line sales, Product line sales, Product form sales, Product item sales), Time Level (Short run, Medium run, Long run) Potential Market (interest) v/s Available Market (interest, income and access) Target Market (pursued) v/s Penetrated Market (had)

A Vocabulary of Market Demand

Market Demand: Products bought by a defined customer

group, in a defined area, in a defined time period. Market Potential: The approached limit as industry expenditures reach infinity. Market Minimum: The demand without any demand stimulating circumstances. Market Forecast: This the demand level to be achieved at a given expenditure at a defined time.

Estimating Current Demand

Total Market Potential: It can be calculated in two ways

100 people x 3 books x Rs 6 = Rs1800

Chain Ratio Method: Demand for the new cola = Population

x avg. % of discretionary income spent on food x avg. % of amount spent on food that is spent on beverages x average % spent on beverage that is spent on non- alcoholic beverages ...and so on. Area Market Potential: It can be calculated by MarketBuildup Method; estimating manufacturing establishment, estimating the number of product each industry will buy based on per thousand employees or per million sales

Estimating Future Demands

Survey of Buyers Intentions: Purchase probability scale (No

chance 0.0 to certain 1.0) Composite of sales force opinions Expert opinion Past sales analysis Market test method