REVOIL S.A.

CASE STUDY ANALYSIS 07 FEBRUARY 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
We analyze the fuel industry and focus on Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum Company S.A., one of the largest fuel and oil retail distributors based in Greece. We focus on financial years 2008 and 2009 and perform RATIO analysis, NOPAT, EVA, FCF along with others. Using, afore analyzed data, we attempt to provide a forecast and propose ways to improve certain aspects of Elinoils performance. Our report concludes with a presentation of qualitative factors that management should take into account to improve financial performance.

CONTENTS
Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................2 CONTENTS..........................................................................................................................................3 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................4 RATIOS................................................................................................................................................8 Analysis................................................................................................................................................9 FORECASTING.................................................................................................................................13 Quantitative Analysis..........................................................................................................................14 Qualitative Analysis............................................................................................................................14 REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................16 BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................................17 List of Figures Figure 1 Subsidiaries.........................................................................................................................8 Figure 2 - Activities...............................................................................................................................8 List of Tables Table 1 Ratios Used for Analysis.......................................................................................................9 Table 2 Current Ratios......................................................................................................................9 Table 3 Quick Ratios.........................................................................................................................9 Table 4 Receivables Turnover.........................................................................................................10 Table 5 - Average Days Sales............................................................................................................10 Table 6 - Gross Profit Margin .............................................................................................................10 Table 7 - Net Profit Margin.................................................................................................................10 Table 8 - Asset Turnover....................................................................................................................10 Table 9 - Returns on Assets...............................................................................................................11 Table 10 - Returns on Equity..............................................................................................................11 Table 11 - Earnings per Share............................................................................................................11 Table 12 - Debts to Assets ................................................................................................................11 Table 13 - Debts to Equity .................................................................................................................11 Table 14 - Interest Coverage .............................................................................................................12 Table 15 - Prices over Earnings ........................................................................................................12 Table 16 Du Pont Analysis..............................................................................................................12 Table 17 Strengths and Weaknesses..............................................................................................12 Table 18 Improvement Areas..........................................................................................................13 Table 19 Other indices for 2009......................................................................................................13 Table 20 Income Statement.............................................................................................................13 Table 21 Total Assets......................................................................................................................13 Table 22 Total Claims......................................................................................................................14 Table 23 Other indices for 2010......................................................................................................14

INTRODUCTION
HISTORY REVOIL was founded in 1982, under the company name Revithis Sofoklis S.A., and its main area of activity was the retailing of petroleum products. The companys key asset of strategic importance as it entered this sector was its liquid fuel storage facility on the island of Chios. The year 1995 was a milestone in the companys development; it was in this year that it was purchased by its current shareholders. Since May 1995 the company has built up a broad network of 532 service stations, due to its aggressive policy of expanding the service stations network, spread all over the Greek region, all under the REVOIL trademark. We should point out that the company holds trading licenses in the 1st and 6th category, allowing it to sell petroleum products all across Greece, as well as a category 5 permit allowing the sale of marine and aviation fuels. The company also collaborates with about 207 customers designated as Independent Service Stations, and with independent suppliers of heating oil. Alongside its presence in the liquid fuel sector, the company markets a wide range of supplementary products under the REVOLUTION trademark (lubricants for automotive and diesel engines, hydraulic systems and gears). In the summer of 2001 the company received ISO 14001 (environmental management certification from the Greek Standards Agency)for the Chios facilities. In May 2002 an expansion plan was initiated for the Nea Karvali (Kavala) facility, with the construction of 7 storage tanks with a capacity of 27,000 cubic metres. This expansion together with the facilities of Chios gave Revoil a great competitive advantage, given that the Nea Karvali plant at Kavala is the largest petroleum product storage facility anywhere in Greece outside Attica and Thessaloniki. In recent years the company has been gradually reorganizing its management structure, giving special emphasis on its human capital through ongoing training and the introduction of CRM and ERP technologies.

THE COMPANY REVOIL is a 100% Greek-owned company that operates in the Greek petroleum market, enjoying a market share of 8.44% and still expanding (YP.AN. 2011). The company has enjoyed particular success over the last years thanks to the excellent relations with all the business associates and partners in its network. REVOILs business is the trading of fuels and lubricants to its network of 532 affiliate service stations. The company's line of business is storage, transport and trade of petroleumbased products in Greece and the Balkans. The main products are:

LRP Petrol 95 RON Unleaded Petrol 100 RON Unleaded Petrol Diesel Fuel (with 7% max biodiesel) Heating Fuel Maritime Fuel Lubricants

In recognition of the consumers need for guaranteed quality fuels at competitive prices, the company has introduced TOTAL QUALITY CONTROLS in collaboration with National Technical University of Athens at all service stations and facilities displaying the REVOIL trademark in order to verify and certify the quality of the fuels it distributes . The new controls came into effect on 1st February 2008.

MISSION
REVOILs mission is to offer the best possible to everyone who is directly or indirectly affected by its operation (shareholders) based on three pillars; People, Society and the Environment. PEOPLE

Eliminating all discrimination in the workplace in regards to gender, nationality, religion, cultural characteristics and social profile. Behavior and attitude towards people governed by respect, civility, honesty, integrity and fairness. Commitment to a fair, objective and transparent professional development method for all employees.

SOCIETY

Attitude and actions against any illegal act such as bribery, fraud, embezzlement or money laundering. Commitment towards social issues with a view to supporting the society in which I operate.

ENVIRONMENT

Whenever possible, offsetting CO2 emissions through reduction thereof and implementation of relevant actions. Actions and activities based on assuring environmental quality in combination with business criteria.

VISION
REVOILs vision is to develop into one of the most important petroleum product companies in Greece and the Balkans, through various activities in the petroleum sector, gaining the confidence of Greek consumers and beyond through its operations as well as its professionalism and competitiveness. It is a company that contributes to the Greek economy, a company worth working for, a creative company which always looks to the future. Its objective is to offer customers products of the highest quality, friendly and fast service at competitive prices.

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
The domestic oil product market holds the leading position in the Greek energy balance (51.5%, ICAP May 2010). The major deterministic factors for the consumption of petrol fuels are the sectors of transport (50%), industry (16%), electricity production (12%) and domestic sector (15.2%) as presented in Figure X.

D esticconsum om ptionof fuels in Greeceper sector (Eurostat 2007)

15% 4% 8% 16% 5% 2% 12%

38% 0%

Agricultural sector Road transportations

Public & Commercial Sector Airwaytransportations

ElectricityProduction Shippingtransportation

Industry Domestic sector

Railwaytransportations

Figure X. 2008 was a crucial year for the retail sector of the industry because all the companies suffered significant losses. In 2009, we see a significant recap in the companies profitability and the EBITDA to rise by 125%. On the contrary, the refinery companies (Motor Oil, ELPE) demonstrated a significant downsize of the profitability in 2008. In 2009, we see a significant decline of the total petroleum market by 5.8%. In more detail, gasoline market together with automotive and heating diesel market were stable. There was a significant downsize of the internal consumption of crude oil (-20%), as well as the demand for the big industrial units (-22%). Moreover, there was a major decline in the consumption of international transportation

fuels (Jet A1 -11.5%, maritime fuel -10%). Finally, natural gas showed a tremendous decline of 16% as an immediate result of the reduction in electricity generation.

Figure X: The Five Forces Competition Framework (Porter)

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

INTERNAL ANALYSIS
Introduction Resources Capabilities

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Introduction The financials Formation of Competitive Advantage Value Chain

STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION

The domestic oil product market signals its declining path. Cash flows have decreased in all companies and especially for the weaker players with a market share of less than 2%. Examples of such companies are Sunoil and Elpetrol that announced the termination of their operations. At the moment we have eight (8) big players that have 80% of the market, each one having at least 5.5% market share. Therefore the market is an oligopoly, where size matters. The credit policy from the supply side (ELPE and Motoroil), and from the Banks is going to worsen the current status. Additionally, the credit policy for the customers will tighten and as an example, ELPE has announced a credit policy of no more than twenty (20) days. Furthermore, multinational giants like BP and Shell consider the possibility of cashing out. The consumption of motor fuels has dropped by 2% and the consumption of heating oil has dropped more than 12%. The companies are considering 2009 as a very crucial year for their survival and the potential of mergers is very likely to occur. The company examining in our case is Elin, which currently has a market share of 6%. Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum (elin) was incorporated in 1954 and has since grown into one of the major energy companies in Greece, covering a significant portion of the countrys industrial needs in fuels and lubricants (elin 2011). In 2000, the company founded its subsidiary, elin Technical, expanding into construction work and technical studies. In 2004, elin was listed in the Athens Stock Exchange and in 2005 it further diversified its range of activities into shipping, retail petrol stations, and biofuels production - with subsidiaries elin Shipping Co., elin Stations, and elin Biofuels. Elin also produces and trades lubricants for petrol and diesel motors, agricultural machines, turbines, air compressors, heat transfer and industrial vehicles, as well as metal cutting and processing equipment. In the maritime sector, it provides marine lubricants and fuel for vessels. In addition to liquid fuel, the company produces and trades solid fuels.

Figure 1 Subsidiaries

Figure 2 - Activities

RATIOS
Ratio analysis is used to analyze the success, failure and progress of the business during a fiscal year. Ratio analysis allows us to analyze and compare the above parameters with the average performance of companies that conduct business on the industry. For a valid comparison we need to compare ratios for at least two successive years.

The ratios selected for analysis are provided on the following table: Domain Ratios Reasoning Liquidity Current Ratio The Liquidity ratios measure how expeditiously a company can convert its assets into cash. They Quick Ratio measure the risk that the company has for not meeting its payments. Efficiency Receivables Turnover Ratio The Efficiency ratios measure the ability of the company to manage efficiently its assets. Average Days Sales Ratio Profitability Gross Profit Margin Ratio The Profitability ratios measure the companys potential for generating profit. Net Profit Margin Ratio Asset Turnover Ratio Return on Assets Ratio Return on Equity Ratio Earnings per Share Ratio Long Term Solvency Debt to Assets Ratio These ratios reveal the companys susceptibility to risk. They are the indicators if a company is Debt to Equity Ratio able to pay its loans. Interest Coverage Ratio Market Test Price over Earnings Market Test ratios reflect to some extent the growth potential of a company and the market`s evaluation of the firm`s earnings.
Table 1 Ratios Used for Analysis

Analysis
The current ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 1.34 1.14 2009 1.67 1.05
Table 2 Current Ratios

We observe that Elinoil has a very healthy current ratio, since it is over one (1). Moreover, Elins performance is exceptional and above markets average. According to the numbers, the company can cover its current liabilities and appears to be managed prudently. The company has a margin to increase its current liabilities, decrease its assets, change current assets to less liquid assets and provide dividends to its shareholders. The quick ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 1.17 0.96 2009 1.42 0.84
Table 3 Quick Ratios

Complementary to the current ratio, Elinoil has a very healthy quick ratio, since it is over one (1). The ratio increased in 2009, which demonstrates that the company is able to meet its obligations and at the same time keep intact its assets. Contrary, the market average depicts that the competitors have to convert their assets into cash in order to meet their obligations. Therefore Elinoil is developing more than market average, although its current liabilities remain close to the market average. Consequently the assets of the company are intensively used. The receivables turnover ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average

2008 2009

31 days 34 days

36 days 42 days
Table 4 Receivables Turnover

Currently, Elinoil is able to collect its receivables on average in less time than the market. This shows that the risk of bad debts is less than the market average. Although the company is in expansion mode, the expansion is based on a healthy client base. The increase of the numbers between 2008 and 2009 is analogous to the increase on the market. The average days sales ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 11,77 10,13 2009 10,73 8,7
Table 5 - Average Days Sales

From 2008 to 2009 we observe a decrease in average sales per day both in Elinoil and Market average. The total consumption rate has decreased and the whole market is affected. Elinoil demonstrates a better resistance in the decrease as it is able to keep the average days sales above market average. The gross profit margin ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 6.57% 6.11% 2009 7.73% 6.32%
Table 6 - Gross Profit Margin

Gross Profit Margin increased between 2008 and 2009 for Elinoil more than the market. This index is very important because it provides a way of evaluating the efficiency of our company. It shows our pricing policy and its success. In Elin case, it is in a better position than the market average and managed to increase it since 2008. This index also gives an advantage to manage without any particular difficulty a possible raise in a cost of goods sold. This might be a result of a good purchasing strategy or high selling prices or both. The net profit margin ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 0.18% 0,79% 2009 0.71% 0,94%
Table 7 - Net Profit Margin

This index shows that our company has managed to increase its profitability from its operations activities almost four (4) times in a year. At the same time, the companys numbers lie below market average. If we correlate the numbers with the Gross Profit Margin, then, COGS and other expenses is higher than the competitors, but we manage to have a good pricing policy. The asset turnover ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 5.35 5.31 2009 4.71 4.19
Table 8 - Asset Turnover

This index shows that Elin operates in a capital intensive market. Elins assets are used effectively and intensively in order to achieve the sales level. We observed a decrease of the index in the market although we operate above the market average because there is a drop in the total consumption. Consequently we deduce that Elin is more resilient than the competition.

The returns on assets ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 0.95% -0.12% 2009 3.36% 2.09%
Table 9 - Returns on Assets

The index presents the ability of the company to survive financially and to attract capitals and provide yields. Although in 2008 the index was low, when at the same time the market suffered losses. In 2009, when the market recovered we managed to attract more capital than the market average. This displays that the company is using its assets effectively and can generate yields better than the market. The returns on equity ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 2.67% N/A 2009 13.45% N/A
Table 10 - Returns on Equity

This index provides the efficiency of the owners capital used. It is the basic index that the management of the company is showing to demonstrate performance. Elin, is a great investment opportunity compared with other investments. The earnings per share ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 0.07 N/A 2009 0.20 N/A
Table 11 - Earnings per Share

The earnings per share of Elinoir have been significantly increased between 2008 and 2009. This is justified for the increase on the returns on assets ratio because in order to attract capital we give dividends. The debts to assets ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 1.34 1.13 2009 1.55 1.04
Table 12 - Debts to Assets

This index shows the level of liquidity and how safe is our position to respond to the payment of daily obligations. Our company demonstrates better liquidity than the competition, and also an improvement between 2008 and 2009. Due to the companys ability to secure payments, as justified by receivables turnover ratio, we may lower the debts to asset ratio by increasing our short term debts in order to generate more assets and achieve higher level of sales. The debts to equity ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 2.04 N/A 2009 1.50 N/A
Table 13 - Debts to Equity

Within a year, we observe a decrease in the effect of the external financing on Elins profitability own capital. We have invested more of our money and we did not manage to increase at the same level our assets. The interest coverage ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:

Years 2008 2009

Elin 1.20 3.61

Market Average 3.06 3.75

Table 14 - Interest Coverage

This index shows the net profits of our company and the interest payments that is burden for the use of external financing. It shows the ability of our company to pay the interest through the profit. From 2008 to 2009 we show a significant increase of our company in that sector and we are above the average in our market. The prices over earnings ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table: Years Elin Market Average 2008 0.07 N/A 2009 0.20 N/A
Table 15 - Prices over Earnings

The ratio reveals how much investors are keen to pay for reported profits per share. From 2008 to 2009 investors are willing to pay more money because the company demonstrated a growth prospect. The DuPont Analysis for is given below: Year Du Pont Analysis 2008 3.89% 2009 14.93% Percentage 283.8% Change Profit Margin 0.18% 0.71% 294% Total Assets Turnover 5.34% 4.70% -11.9% Equity Multiplier 4.05% 4.48% 10.6%

Table 16 Du Pont Analysis

The increase in Dupont ROE is mainly justified by the Profit Margin increase. This was a management decision to increase the profit margin and sacrifice some of the level of sales. The equity multiplier shows an increase in the financial leverage of the company that has a positive effect on ROE. In our case this is healthy because at the same time we have an increase in the profit margin. According to the above, the strengths and weaknesses of the Elin are given on the following table: Strengths Weaknesses 1. Profit Margin 1. Expensive External Financing 2. Short Collection Period of AR 2. Low Conversion Ratio of own capital to 3. Generate Yields in order to attract capital assets 4. Effective and intensive use of assets
Table 17 Strengths and Weaknesses

The areas of improvement for the company are given on the following table: Areas to Improve Side Effect Corrective Action Expensive External Financing. Investments of Elin will not be Negotiate better terms in any This is reasoned due to the future loans. used for development but for following ratio: financing the interest of the interest coverage loans.

Areas to Improve Low Conversion Ratio of own capital to assets This is reasoned due to the following ratio: debts to equity

Side Effect We have invested more of our money and we did not manage to increase at the same level our assets. This is not sustainable for long term periods.

Corrective Action Minimize the cost of operations. Introduce new technology. Lower cost of labor. Restructure distribution channels.

Table 18 Improvement Areas

Index NOPAT EVA FCF MVA

Elin Formula EBIT x (1 Tax Rate) NOPAT (After Tax Cost of Capital) NOPAT (Net Capital Investment) Market Value of Equity Equity Capital Supplied

2009 7,039 x (1 0.25) = 5,279.25 5,279.25 (0.1 x 94,146) = -4,135.35 5,279.25 (94,146 - 88,995) = 128.25 18,800,000 x 2.04 - 18,800,000x 1,80 = 4,512

Table 19 Other indices for 2009

FORECASTING
Because of the shrinkage of the market and reduction in total consumption, we project that in 2010 and due to alternative sources of heating and moving, the sales will drop by 11% for 2010. So the level of new sales will be in 2010: 659,498 x 0.89 = 586,944.32 Income Statement 2009 659.488 -608.514 50.974 47.954 3.020 0.755 2.265
Table 20 Income Statement

Net Sales COGS Gross Profit SGA Profit before Taxes Taxes Profit after Taxes

2010 586.9443 -541.5783 45.36606 42.67898 2.687079 0.644899 2.04218

% of sales 92% 7%

Cash Accounts Receivables Inventories Total Current Assets Net Fixed Assets Total Assets

2010 8.49238 54.51517 15.21722 78.22477 41.21234 119.43711

Total Assets 2009 9.542 61.253 17.098 87.893 46.306 134.199

Table 21 Total Assets

% of sales 1% 9% 3%

7%

2010 Accoutns Payables / Accruals Notes Payables Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Common Stock Retained Earnings Total Claims

Total Claims 2009 29.121 26.302

% of sales 8%

49.32647 36.256 11.914 11.87171 109.3682

55.423 36.256 11.914 13.339 116.932

Table 22 Total Claims

2%

Additional Funds Needed (AFN): Forecasted Total Assets Forecasted Total Claims 134,199 - 116,932 = 17,267 Ways to raise funds: 1. Issue New Common Stock 2. External Financing We prefer the first option as we need to cut off loans as provide after ratio analysis.

Quantitative Analysis
Index NOPAT EVA FCF MVA Elin Formula EBIT x (1 Tax Rate) NOPAT (After Tax Cost of Capital) NOPAT (Net Capital Investment) Market Value of Equity Equity Capital Supplied 2010 2,687.079 - (1 - 0.24) = 2,042 2,042 - (0.1 x 70,110) = -4,969 2,042 - (70,110 94,146) = 26.078 Cannot be Projected

Table 23 Other indices for 2010

Comments: NOPAT was decreased due to the fact of lower sales, although the new tax rate is less by 1%. The operating expenses represent a big percentage of our sales. Consequently, drop of sales have significant impact on EVA. Negative EVA depicts that Elin is not able to return earnings to shareholder at comparable risk. Free Cash Flows of the company have decreased but still remain positive. This is a sign of lower sales performance and it will impact directly the shareholders. This years decrease in FCF will affect Elins ability to proceed in acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce the debt.

Qualitative Analysis
Due to the restructuring of the market as the smaller companies are disappearing from the scene, lower cost labor force can be introduced in Elin in order to lower operating cost.

Another side-effect of the restructuring is that Elin has the opportunity to compete for a larger market share. Due to the crisis a new opportunity for Elin is to attempt to develop business in new markets. For instance a good opportunity would be invest in renewable energy and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas). Another factor to take into consideration is the constant change in taxation system along with market regulation forced by the Greek government. Finally, another opportunity for Elin is to try to become more extrovert and try to penetrate in the market of the Balkans.

REFERENCES
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