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INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Population growth and advances in technology have led to an enormous increase in the demand for crude oil. Current global oil demand stands at 88.8 million barrels per day [36]. To meet this demands, oil Companies have relied on offshore operations. Offshore oil reserves discovered so far amounts to a total of 500bb and 60% of this have not been produced [37]. Offshore operations are fraught with many hazards which range from a minor gas leak to an uncontained fire and explosion caused by the ignition of a major blowout. Realisation and escalation of these hazards will result in the degradation of asset integrity and hence the need to evacuate personnel from the installation. Factors that influence successful evacuation of personnel includes; availability and reliability of evacuation equipment, prevailing environmental conditions and human performance during evacuation [18]. In the event of a major accident on an offshore installation, a successful evacuation, escape and rescue (EER) operation will lead to the preservation of the lives of personnel who survived the initial accident event by ensuring they are safely transferred from the scene of the accident to a place of safety. However, practical experiences from previous accidents; such as the Ocean Ranger disaster where all the personnel on board died during the EER process, and the Piper Alpha accident where more than half of the personnel on board perished while attempting to escape from the installation; have shown that human error, equipment failure and adverse weather condition could greatly impede the optimal execution of the EER operation which could lead to fatalities.

Figure 1: The Mumbai High North Platform Complex before the Accident [] Each major offshore accident have always led to a new regulation aimed at reducing the risk associated with the EER operation, by improving equipment reliability and human performance through hi-tech design and robust personnel training.

Figure 2: The Mumbai High North Platform Complex after the Accident []

The Safety Case Regulation was the outcome of the public inquiry, chaired by Lord Cullen, which followed after the Piper Alpha disaster. The safety case is a documented piece of evidence that shows operators commitments to reducing risks to a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. A Quantified Risk Analysis (QRA) is used in all safety cases to demonstrate that risk to personnel in an offshore installation is within acceptable limits. Aspects of the safety case regulation that are of particular concern to evacuation, escape and rescue are implemented through the Prevention of Fire, Explosion and Emergency Response (PFEER) Regulations. The PFEER regulation requires the duty holder to make necessary arrangement for the protection of personnel from hazards associated with fire and explosion, and emergency response. It was developed to promote a risk- based approach to managing fire and explosion, and emergency response. The regulation requires that two set of risk analysis be carried out for fire and explosion, and evacuation, escape and rescue respectively. The result of the analysis is incorporated into the overall QRA of the Safety Case [38]. The reason for carrying out an EER analysis is to provide the basis for decision making, with respect to selecting solutions and measures aimed at reducing risk to as low as reasonably practicable.[] Risk to personnel during EER is presented as fatality risk which is measured in terms of fatality rate [13]. The main purpose of undertaking this project is to develop a spreadsheet model that calculates fatality rate from EER operations in offshore installation.

1.2 Aim The aim of this project is to develop a generic spreadsheet model that can be used to calculate fatality rate during EER process in a multi-platform complex for any set of input data.

1.3 Objective The objectives of the project are To review relevant literature on evacuation escape and rescue analysis To review and understand some existing models To suggest improvements to the way the risk associated with EER are calculated To use the knowledge gained to develop a generic spreadsheet model for calculating fatality rate from EER operation in a multi-platform complex. The model is required to be generic enough to handle different types of actual situations.

1.4 Scope EER process can be divided into three stages as shown in the diagram below.

Figure 3: Diagram showing the stages of EER operation. This project considers only stage 2 of the above diagram, i.e. Evacuation, Escape and Rescue. Immediate fatalities as a result of the initiating events and fatalities from mustering and recovery failures are not included in the fatality rate figure that is calculated by the model.

The model did not consider the effect of the initiating event on evacuation equipment. Evacuation is carried out using equipment that are still intact after the accident. The determination of the number of equipment that survived the initial event is beyond the scope of this project. Although probability and fatality fraction values were extensively used in this model, the actual determination of these values is not covered in this model. Finally, the types of events covered by the model are events with low probability of occurrence but with consequences of high magnitude, that will necessitate the complete removal of personnel from the complex.

1.5 Presentation outline The presentation outline for the project is discussed below. An introduction to the project is contained in chapter one. This is made up of the aim, objective, scope, and presentation outline of the project. To gain a thorough understanding of the concepts of EER, several literatures were consulted. Chapter two presents a literature review about the regulatory requirements on EER, the impact of human factor on EER process and existing methods for EER analysis and modelling. Chapter three discusses the method adopted in order to achieve the projects objectives. The spreadsheet model that has been developed is the core content of the project. A worksheet by worksheet description of the spreadsheet model is presented in chapter four. Chapter five shows a sample of the calculation carried out by the model in the process of determine the fatality rate from a multi-platform complex. How to use the model is discussed in chapter six. Chapter seven contains the conclusion and recommendations on how to improve the model based on the limitations identified.