The Future of NATO Expansion: Four Case Studies by Zoltan Barany Review by: Stuart Croft The Slavonic

and East European Review, Vol. 83, No. 2 (Apr., 2005), pp. 353-354 Published by: the Modern Humanities Research Association and University College London, School of Slavonic and East European Studies Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4214111 . Accessed: 09/03/2012 00:07
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left to judge for himself. Yet where an author's comment or explanation is appropriate, it is never lacking. There are a few very minor errors:President Maskhadov had undoubtedly been a lieutenant (p. I 22), but it was as a full colonel that he left the Soviet army in I992 after twenty years' service. One might have wished for more detail on the Chechen-Ingush relationship in the period between i99i and 1994, given the pivotal nature of the elections in the Chechen part of Checheno-Ingushetia in i99i which Dr German describes on pp. 46ff However, this lack of detail reflects the situation at the time, which was confused and largely undiscussed, at least in public. Such are the problems of writing even recent history. Future researcherswill be grateful for the impressive bibliography and the full and useful endnotes. By comparison, the index and the treatment of events after I999 are less comprehensive. Yet this is more than compensated for by the treatment of the Gorbachev period which, though seminal, is often ignored in discussions of current problems in post-Soviet space. This book will go a long way towards redressingthe balance for later historians. Yet this book should not be left to historians or to regional experts. Its main value arguably lies in its readable but reliable chronicling, and its restrained but authoritative analysis of processes a decade ago which have a profound impact today, and not just on Russia and Chechnya. In her very first sentence, Dr German draws attention to events that posed 'an increasing threat not only to the stability of the North Caucasus region, but also to the very foundations of Russian security' (p. i). Given their recent escalation to a war of terror on all sides, and their consequent impact at a geopolitical level, maybe she ought to have written 'the very foundations of world security'. Studies Research Centre Conflict UKDefence Academy
ANNE C. ALDIS

Barany, Zoltan. The Futureof NATO Expansion. FourCaseStudies.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 2003. x + 267 pp. Tables. Notes. Bibliography. Index. $65.00: C45.00.
ONCE upon a time, a few years ago, there was little more contentious in the world of international security than the question of whether NATO should enlarge. Books, journal pieces, op-eds abounded with the pros and cons. At the end of this, NATO decided to enlarge, in I997, in a moderate fashion: faced with the choice of inviting three or five states to join or indeed, none, it opted for the former. After a couple of years, the debate began again, albeit at a much lower level of intensity. Just before 9/ I I, President Bush indicated that there would be another enlargement, and this one turned out to be a maximal one, with seven new states invited to join. The decision was ratified at NATO's summit in Prague in November 2002. Zoltan Barany examines the merits of this latter decision in terms of the readiness of four of those new invitees to become members of the Alliance. He studies the situations of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in detail, in terms of their political, economic and military conditions. Barany clearly

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has excellent contacts in the establishments of these states, excellent language skills, and an ability to search out telling documents. The material gathered is outstanding in this sub-field of NATO enlargement studies, where far too often assertion masquerades as reasoned argument. The conclusion that Barany reaches, perhaps unsurprisingly, is that in terms of NATO's own criteria, these states were unready to take steps on the road to membership. He takes the next logical step, in suggesting that NATO is taking significant risks in terms of its own efficiency and operationalization in admitting states that are unready, and that are consumers rather than contributors to security. The case is that much stronger for focusing on the larger four in the latest round of enlargement, rather than the smaller, Baltic Republics. Barany also makes the case that the four states that he examines are the 'least studied'. In thinking in terms of concepts of 'consumer' of security, Barany uses some of the language of those opposed to any NATO enlargement prior to 1997. Indeed, as he was one of those opposed, this is quite natural. Barany was concerned that NATO's enlargement would provoke Russia, for little real contribution to NATO in return. Later, Barany took a different argument on the issue, and now that the former concern (with Russian reaction) is much lower, he is still reasonably concerned with the latter. But he is careful and measured in his deployment of the argument. A lack of readiness is not a reason to prevent enlargement; rather, it is an important aspect in the timing of it. With recourse to a variety of data, Barany demonstrates how, of the group, Slovenia is the most ready, Romania the least. Is this the last shot in the last war, or the first in the next? Barany skilfully makes it both. He demonstrates that all the care and precision of developing a process of enlargement so obsessively at the heart of EU enlargement can be swept aside by political fiat. This was the case with this latest round of enlargement: a view that inclusion was most important came to dominate the Bush Administration, and a large scale enlargement decision followed. But Barany is also surely rightly -convinced that NATO enlargement will continue, and he has an eye to that. Many states could be candidates over the next few years Croatia, for example and into the longer term: Albania, Macedonia, Ukraine, even Georgia. In the next enlargement decision, NATO's political leadership will do well to follow a more careful and differentiated process, Barany would argue: and in that, Barany would undoubtedly enjoy great support amongst policy-makers at NATO's headquartersin Brussels. Department PoliticalScience International of and Studies University Birmingham of
STUART CROFT

Saxonberg, Steven. TheCzech Republic Before New Millennium. the Politics,Parties and Gender. East European Monographs, 637. East European Monographs, Boulder, CO, 2003. xii + 259 pp. Tables. Figures. Notes. Index. ?33.00? THE CZECH REPUBLIC BEFORE THE NEW MILLENNIUM brings together a number of the author's papers and articles on Czech politics during the I 99os.