Maart 2012

SOCIAL MEDIA IN
THE

HOW BIG A ROLE DID THEY PLAY?

ARAB SPRING:

By Maria Campmans and Aron Kuisch | 6VWO

Word of thanks
This thesis would not have been made without the help and support of many. We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to those who made this possible. Especially our tutors, Mrs. Stoop and Mrs. van der Bijl, for guiding us through the process of writing this paper, and Tony Mossad and Bassel Yacoub for giving us an in-depth understanding of the situation in the Middle-East. Also, we would like to give a moments thought to the freedom of press. A privilege often taken for granted. Furthermore, we would like to thank each other for being there, through both the highs and the lows. Beforehand, we would not have thought that we would do this thesis together but it all worked out in the end.

But thanks be to God, who always leads us as captives in Christs triumphal procession and uses us to spread the aroma of the knowledge of him everywhere.
2 Cor 2:14 (NIV)

Maria Campmans & Aron Kuisch

Index
On the road to freedom? Why are there no Arab democracies? What has been the function of Social Media? The quarrel between cyber-utopians and cybercritics Straight from the horses mouth: How two Egyptian students experienced the revolution in Egypt Conclusion Acknowledgements 1 3 9 17 21 26 28

All we are saying is, Give free speech a chance.

On the road to freedom?

Before we started writing this paper, our views differed. Aron estimated that Social Media had a significant role in the developments in the Arab Spring and that Social Media has had much influence on politics in the Middle East. Maria, however, thought that its role was overstated and that Social Media were of little significance for the development of the Arab revolutions. We did agree on that Social Media played a certain role, but we were both curious for how big a role they had. In this paper, the emphasis will lay on the lack of democracy in the Middle East, the function Social Media had and the discord between cyber- utopians and cyber- critics. For us, the right to vote and to participate in decision-making has become self-evident. It is our right to make our voices heard. Many people take this and our democracy for granted and are often dissatisfied with the current situation, expressing their discontent with the government and politicians. We hope to show that our form of government should not be taken for granted. We want to take you to the Middle East and hope to open your eyes for the current situation in these countries, where citizens like us go to the streets to demonstrate for their civil rights. Not only do these demonstrators go to the streets, they share their experiences with other revolutionaries via Social Media as well. We will research how big a role these new media played. First of all, it is necessary to get an idea of what is going on in the Middle East. To date, there have been revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, a civil war in Libya resulting in the fall of the countrys government; civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen; major protests in among others Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and minor protests in surrounding countries. The series of protests and demonstrations across the Middle East and North Africa have become known as the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring is a revolutionary wave of demonstrations occurring in the Arab world. It all begun in Tunisia on the 18th of December, 2010. The day Mohamed Bouazizi (a Tunisian street vendor) set himself on fire in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and aides. As of February 2012, governments have been overthrown in three countries. Tunisian President Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January 2011 following the Tunisian revolutionary protests. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak resigned on the 11th of February 2011 after eighteen days of massive protest, after 30 year presidency. The Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown on the 23th of August 2011, after the National Transitional Council (NTC) took control of Bab al-Azizia. He was killed on 20 October 2011 and the NTC took control of the city. For quite a long time, the situation in the Arab countries has been unstable and there has been going on a lot. Newspapers have been covering at least one story a day on the subject of the Arab Spring. Other forms of media play their part in the media coverage as well. Groups of young online activists discuss, organize demonstrations, post videos and share their opinions about the revolution going on in their country. Bloggers raise awareness of state attempts at repression and Internet censorship. It seems that the citizens write and fight for freedom, but will they accomplish their goals and obtain a democracy? What was going on in the Arab Spring? What has been the function

of Social Media? Why were there no democracies in the Middle East? What about the quarrel between the cyber- utopians and cyber- critics? How big a role did Social Media play in the Arab Spring? Let us go back in time...

Why are there no Arab Democracies?

1974, the Third Wave of Democratization. Democracy doesnt restrict itself to the West anymore, but starts to spread all over the world. Except for one region that is, The Middle East. 17 years later, this exception still stands. There is not even a single democratic regime in the Arab world, but... why not? i One of the reasons for the protesters in the Middle East to organize the revolution was that they wanted to get rid of their dictators and their autocratic regimes. We were wondering why there were no Arab democracies in these countries, because this could have prevented the revolutions. The problem of youth unemployment for example, could have been solved through certain economic measures. Measures that were not taken this time, because the dictator did not care for his people. We found the required objective measurements of progress to gain a clear view of the status of democracy and did a research on the underlying causes for the lack of democracy (the economic development and social structure for example).

Saliba Sarsar formulated the status of democracy index measure. It measures the state of democratization through several variables. Four variables address governance and representative government (how heads of state and members of the legislature are selected, as well as political party development, suffrage and the political rights and civil liberties). Freedom House annually publishes a survey providing the fifth variable: media freedom. Measurements of religious liberty can be derived from the U.S. Department of State report (6th variable). Observation of human rights with the information of Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and The U.S. Department of State forms a seventh variable. The United Nations Development Programs human development index measures the human development, while the Heritage Foundations index of economic freedom gives us the opportunity to quantify economic freedom.
The status of democracy index assigns each of these nine variables 2 points for a total of 18 points. Each score ranges from 0 to 2, with 0 being nonexistent and 2 being the highest measurement. For example, if the head of state or legislature is not elected, then that country receives a score of zero. Prohibition of political parties would also equate to a 0 while tight controls would merit a 1, and reasonably free functioning would lead to a 2. Media freedom, religious liberty, and respect for human rights are each easy to quantify: 0 for not free, 1 for partly free, and 2 for free. Human development is scored by level: 0 for low, 1 for medium, and 2 for high. Economic freedom, the last variable, is scored on the level of governmental interference in the economy, with 0 for strong, 1 for moderate, and 2 for low interference. It is then possible to convert the totals to a percentage ii for easy digestion. Saliba Sarsar (professor of political science at Monmouth University, New Jersey)

TABLE 1: Status of Democracy Index's Ranking of 17 Arab Countries, 1999 A

Country

B Free Election Legislatur e/ National Council

C Politic al Partie s

D Suffra ge

E Media Freedo m

F Religio us Freedo m

I Econo mic Freedo m Tot al SDI % Arab SD SDI Ranki I ng

Fre e Ele cti on He

Huma Human n Developm Right ent s

ad of Sta te Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen Legend A: 0=no; 1=indirect or not totally free; 2=yes B: 0=no; 1=indirect or limited; 2=yes C: 0=prohibited or nonexistent; 1=controlled by government or need government approval; 2=reasonably free D: 0=none; 1=some; 2=yes E: 0=not free; 1=partly free; 2=free F: 0=none; 1=some; 2=yes G: 0=not observed; 1=partly observed; 2=fully observed H: 0=low human development; 1=medium human development; 2=high human development I: 0=strong governmental interference; 1=medium governmental interference; 2=low governmental interference Source: "Arab Politics: Can Democracy Prevail?" Middle East Quarterly, Mar. 2000, p. 44. 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 .5 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 1.5 0 1 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 1.5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 .5 1 .5 0 1.5 1 1.5 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .5 0 .5 0 .5 0 .5 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 .5 0 2 2 1.5 0 2 2 1.5 1.5 9 5 8 2.5 50 28 44 14 5 11 9 16 2 5 2 11 1 11 11 16

10.5 58 9 50

10.5 58 5 11 5 5 2.5 28 61 28 28 14

0 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 0 2

0 1 .5 0 1.5

1.5 2 2 0 2

0 0 0 0 0

0 1 1.5 1 1

.5 0 .5 0 .5

0 1 1 2 0

.5 .5 1.5 2 .5

4.5 8.5 10 6 8.5

25 47 56 33 47

15 7 4 10 7

Arab governments might claim that they made several significant political reforms between 1999 and 2005. In 1999, Kuwaits ruler al-Sabah gave the women in his country full political rights. Governments formed national human rights institutions in Jordan and, three years later, in Qatar and Egypt. In 2001, the Bahraini citizens voted to transform their country from an emirate into a constitutional monarchy, including an elected parliament and independent judiciary. A coalition led by the U.S. ousted dictator Saddam Hussein in March 2003. In that same year, Jordanians voted for a

new parliament. Saudi Arabia held its first municipal elections since its establishment in 1932 and international pressure led to (restricted) multiparty elections in Egypt. This sounds promising, but these events fell short of many democracy supporters expectations. In Kuwait, for example, the national assembly blocked women from voting. National Human Rights organizations remained weak and were often tools with which governments suppressed rather than promoted human rights. These six years between 1999 and 2005 are reflected in the status of democracy index. Comparing Table 1 and Table 2, Jordan and Libanon remained consistent with 10.5 points each. Second place went to Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen with nine points each. Morocco lost three points due to declining press and economic freedoms and scored eight points only. Libya, Oman and Sudan with five points each occupied the second lowest positions, while Saudi-Arabia remained the least democratic with only four points. To sum up, six countries remained at their 1999 level. Seven countries (Bahrein, Egypt, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, Sudan and Yemen) slightly improved their score. Four countries became even less democratic (Kuwait, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia).iii
TABLE 2: Status of Democracy Index's Ranking of 17 Arab Countries, 2005 Count A ry B C D E F G H I

Free Free Election Electi Legislature/Na on tional Council Head of State Algeri a Bahra in Egypt Iraq Jorda n 1.5 1.5

Politi cal Parti es

Suffra Media Religi Freed ous ge om Freed om

Hum an Righ ts

Human Develop ment

Econo Tot % mic al S Freedo SDI DI m

Tre nd 200 0 to 200 6

Arab SDI Ranki ng

.5

.5

50 36 50 39 58

.5

.5

.5

6.5

11

1 1 0

1.5 1 1.5

1 1 1.5

2 1 2

0 .5 0

1 .5 1.5

.5 0 1

1 1 est. 1

1 1 est. 2

9 7 10. 5 8.5

3 9 1

Kuwai 0 t Leban 1 on Libya Moro cco 0 0

.5

47

1.5

1.5

1.5

10. 5 5 8

58 28 44 28

1 1.5

0 1.5

2 1.5

0 0

1 1

0 .5

1 1

0 1

14 8

Oman 0

.5

.5

14

Qatar Saudi Arabi a

0 0

.5 .5

0 0

1 .5

0 0

1 0

.5 0

2 1

1 2

6 4

33

12 17

22

Sudan 0 Syria Tunisi a UAE Yeme n Legend .5 1

1 1 1.5

.5 .5 .5

1.5 1.5 2

0 0 0

0 1 1.5

0 .5 .5

1 1 1

1 est. 1 1

5 7 9

28 39 50

14 9 3

0 1.5

.5 1.5

0 1.5

0 2

0 0

1 1

.5 .5

2 0

2 1

6 9

33

12 3

50

A: 0 = no; 1 = indirect or partially free; 2 = yes B: 0 = no; 1= indirect or limited; 2 = yes C: 0 = prohibited or nonexistent; 1 = controlled by government approval; 2 = reasonably free D: 0 = none; 1 = some; 2 = yes E: 0 = not free; 1 = party free; 2 = free F: 0 = none; 1 = some; 2 = yes G: 0 = not observed; 1 = partly observed; 2 = fully observed H: 0 = low human development; 1 = medium development; 2 = high human development I : 0 = strong governmental interference; 1 = medium governmental interference; 2 = low governmental interference = more democracy; = less democracy; = no change in democracy

The lack of democratic regimes in the Arab world is a much discussed subject among Americans, European policymakers, but also among the Arabs. In coffeehouses and taxis, the debate has flared up: can democracy take root in the Middle east? A common assumption about the Arab democracy deficit is that it has something to do with religion or lack of prosperity. Yet this is not the case (as we will explain). So what then is the reason? Misconceptions Islam and democracy cannot coexist Comparing the Arab world with 29 other Muslim-majority countries, we find among the latter a number of countries with some form of democracy (Albania, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Senegal and Turkey). In 2002 for example, none of the Arab countries was called an electoral democracy, while in that same year, fourteen Muslim countries did get this denomination.

The Islam might have a negative influence of some kind, but it is possible for the Islam and democracy to coexist.i Prosperity causes democracy It is claimed that the more well-to-do a country is, the better its prospects for gaining and keeping democracy will be. If, however, we compare the Arab World with the rest of the world, it turns out that the differences in prosperity really are not that great. Kuwait is nearly as rich as Norway, Bahrain as France, Saudi Arabia as Korea; Oman equals Portugal and Lebanon Costa Rica. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria and Yemen end up on the lower end, but these countries are (per capita) no poorer than for example India or Indonesia, where democracy has found its way. What then is the reason? Economic Development and Social Structure: the Oil Curse Of the Arab countries, eleven depend heavily on oil rents. The Middle East remains the biggest player in oil.

These Middle Eastern countries derive over 70 percent of their export earnings from oil and gas. As a result, they do not need to tax their citizens. Because they do not use their citizens money, they do not have to account for their expenditure. No expectations of accountability that emerge when the states make citizens pay, are developed. The Oil Curse. Oil revenues accrue to the state: they therefore increase the power of the state bureaucracy and, because they reduce or eliminate the need for taxation, they also reduce the need for the government to solicit the acquiescence of its subjects to taxation. The lower the level of taxation, the less reason for publics to demand representation. No taxation without representation was a political demand; no representation without taxation is a political reality. Samuel P. Huntington in The Third Wave

Political Competition If political competition is allowed in the first place, it usually is subject to a lot of rules and the boundaries are clearly drawn. This disadvantages the opposition. The political trajectory Egypt followed in 2004 and 2005 was a perfect illustration: President Hosni Mubarak came under domestic pressure from an uncommonly broad opposition, president George Bush was also pushing for more open and competitive presidential and legislative elections. Mubarak involuntary agreed to allow a presidential election and more transparent legislative elections. His opponent (Ayman Nour) however, was arrested and condemned to a five-year imprisonment. By then, the regime had also intervened during the second and third rounds of the parliamentary elections.i The West It is too easy to blame the West for the lack of democracy. The fact is, however, that most western countries have great interests in the Middle-East. It is imaginable that they would rather have a stable authoritarian regime than an unpredictable democracy. Bringing democracy to the Arab world would also mean that the resources would be liberalized, resulting in a negative impact on the prices. It is, of course, hard to tell if the West knowingly blocks the democracies in these countries, but it could be. And now..? It is lucid that the Arab World is in a difficult situation when it comes to democracy. The West can play an important role in the democratization process as we saw in the example of the presidential elections in Egypt. Maurits S. Berger (Arabist) came up with several steps the West should take to get the democratization process going in the Middle east.iii According to him, the West should not proclaim democracy on the one hand, but support undemocratic regimes on the other hand. The West also should make clear what they mean with democracy. As a result of this two-track policy, confusion could arise among the Arabs. The Arab Regimes call their current system a democracy too and the Western support suggests that this indeed is the case. Furthermore, the West needs to be receptive to alternative forms of democracy, the Islamic democracy for example. They should be willing to have a dialogue with the representatives of Islamic fundamentalism (e.g. Hezbollah, Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood).ii So why are there no Arab democracies? Is it because these countries are Muslim? No, there are enough examples of Muslim democracies (Turkey, Malaysia, and Senegal to name a few). Is it because of the lack of prosperity? No, the differences in prosperity really are not that great. What then is the reason? As explained above, the lack of democracy has several underlying causes. First and perhaps most important is that it is because of the oil curse. Most Arab states do not tax their citizens, eliminating the need to give an account for their expenditure. Out of the top countries that have oil and gas as their top export revenue, zero are democracies. Furthermore, we mentioned the lack of (fair) political competition and the role of the West. Donating billions to the Middle East, the U.S. contributes to authoritarianism, giving the dictators even more reasons not to tax their citizens. To get the democratization process going, the West can play a crucial role.

What has been the function of Social Media?

If we want to know how a role Social Media have played, it is crucial to know which functions Social Media has been. We had a look at the facts and figures regarding the tweets sent during the turmoil. We also wanted to know if the internet penetration differed between the different Arab countries. Furthermore, we found out which lessons could be learned from the revolutions. Hundreds of people die annually due to the consequences of an earthquake. Last year, Japan, NewZealand, Myanmar and China were hit. While the scientists of today may be able to predict where the next earthquake might happen, it is still unclear and impossible to predict precisely when the ground starts rumbling. The same holds good for the revolutions in the Middle East. The specialists knew that the ingredients for these events already existed for a while: there is a lot of youth and unemployment among them in comparison to the rest of the world (as shown below).

(MENA = Middle East and North Africa)

They, however, did not know when these conditions would lead to the popular uprisings. They also could not predict how it would look like (who would lead and/or take part in the revolution). As a result, a lot of people probably were surprised by the timing of the revolution and the speed at which it spread, but not that it happened. Social Media played a role in spreading the revolution that quick, but it also had other functions. Facts and figures These facts hopefully will give a better understanding of the use of Social Media among the Arabs.
The estimated number of active Twitter users in the Arab region at the end of September 2011 was 652,333. The estimated number of tweets generated in the Arab region in September 2011 by these active users was 36,889,500 tweets. The estimated number of daily tweets is 1,229,650 tweets per day, or 854 tweets a minute, or roughly 14 tweets every second. The most popular trending hash tags across the Arab region in September were #Bahrain (with 510,000 mentions in the tweets generated during this period) #Egypt (with 310,000 mentions), #Syria (with 220,000 mentions), #feb14 and #14feb (with a combined 153,000 mentions), and #Kuwait (with 140,000 mentions)

(Arab Social Media Report)

The number of active Twitter users (users who tweeted at least once every two weeks) in the Arab world during the same period was over 1.1 million. These active users generated more than 22.7 million tweets. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon are the leading five countries in the region in Social Media growth during the social unrest (according to the percentage of Facebook and Twitter users). 85 percent of respondents indicated Social Media was used mainly for 1) organizing people, 2) disseminating information and 3) raising awareness about the social movements.
(PRSA Diversity Today Blog)
2

Dubai School of Government (2011). Arab Social Media Report. Consulted on the 28th of February 2012, http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/dsg/unpan044212.pdf 2 The Public Relations Society of America (2012). Impact of Social Media in the Middle East. Consulted on the 28th February 2012, http://diversity.prsa.org/
1

We make friends, keep in touch, shop and listen to music online, isnt it obvious that, when democratic change happens, it happens online too?
Andy Williamson
(An internationally recognized expert in digital strategy with an in-depth understanding of effective engagement and online democracy)

As shown by these facts and figures, there has been a significant use of Social Media, but what did they use the online platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube for? Twitter account @SyRevoSlogans, offered a lot of slogans for the people to use during the demonstrations across the country, a lot of them suggested by other Twitter users. User @syrianjasmine warned her thousands of followers for thugs coming into the town of Daraya (Syria). The Facebook page Syrian Revolution 2011, called on its 120,000 followers to get their boots on the streets for the protests, that they have no excuse not to join, now that the barrier of fear is gone.

Instructions for the protest were clearly disseminated on Facebook: Stand 5 feet apart, so as not to break Egyptian laws against public demonstration; be absolutely silent; no signs; wear black, as determined in an online vote; stand on the banks of the river or sea for one hour only, then walk away. No one yet knew who had organized this protest against police brutality. There were five Facebook page administrators, techsavvy activists who didn't really know each other. They had communicated almost exclusively over Google's e-mail system, which doesn't allow outsiders to trace communications back to a specific computer's IP address. But the young, anonymous, internet-powered dissidents behind the "We Are All Khaled Said" Facebook pagewould surge in popularity over coming months. Eventually, they would be credited with helping spark the 18-day revolution that began on January 25 and toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, in power for as long as some of them had been alive. In doing so, they would update our image of what it means to be a revolutionary: Perhaps it's no longer enough to wield slogans, baseball bats and gas masks; modern revolutions must be fueled, in part, by a bit of tech geekery, too. () Egypt's then-nameless revolutionaries had created a Facebook "event" for January 25, like those for birthday parties or dinner gatherings. They gave it an ominous name: "The Day of the Revolution Against Torture, Poverty, Corruption and Unemployment." More than 80,000 people clicked "yes" on the invite, indicating they would attend, according to Ahmed Saleh, one of the iv five administrators of the Facebook page.

We are all Khalid is another example of a revolutionary Facebook page. It was created in response to the death of Khalid Said, a 28-year old political blogger. It is claimed that this was done after Said posted a video on his blog showing police corruption. The page, showing graphic pictures and videos of torture in Egypt, outraged a lot of Egyptians and in 2010, more than 11000 people responded to the call for silent protests in Cairo, Alexandria and across Egypt. These protests were organized on the We are all Khalid Said page. It has become the largest Egyptian dissident page (over 100-thousand followers).v Social Media help protesters to organise and gives the protesters a feel of cohesion Before the internet and new media existed, the people in the Arab world could not know if their revolutionary feelings of dissatisfaction were shared by others. There was a so called collective action problem: A situation in which several individuals would all benefit from a certain action, which, however, has an associated cost making it implausible that any one individually can or will undertake and solve it alone.3 Working together, the cost of the action will be shared. This problem is most persistent when the individuals cannot communicate and coordinate. To create a powerful movement, members of this movement have to know that others are also willing to fight, and maybe even die, for that same cause. This creates momentum.vi Social Media make it possible to see the revolutionary feelings of others, even in real-time. In other words: social tools provide the opportunity for the hard-core committed activists to publish what they are doing. In doing so, they inspire the lesser committed activists to join them.

Dowding, K. (1996). Power. Consulted on the 28th of February 2012. University of Minnesota Press, pp. 31
3

During the revolution in Tunisia and Egypt, the discussion went across borders. In the two weeks after Mubaraks resignation, there was an average of 2400 tweets a day from people in these neighboring countries about the situation in Egypt. After Ben Alis resignation in Tunisia, there were about 2,200 tweets a day.vii The success of the revolution in Tunisia (government overthrow on 14 January 2011), motivated activists in the other Arab countries.viii Social Media reach the people in adjacent countries

People throughout the region were drawn into an extended conversation about social uprising. The success of demands for political change in Egypt and Tunisia led individuals in other countries to pick up the conversation. It helped create discussion across the region.
- Philip Howard, associate professor in communication at the University of Washington Social Media creates the opportunity to get around the traditional state control of the media. A chance to tell the outside world what really is going on. That is why a lot of the tweets are posted in English (as shown below), for example from Egypt during the Tahrir Square occupation. Social Media is a new tool and useful to invalidate (or put in perspective) the words of the dictator.

Lessons to be learnt Its very hard to prove whether a revolution would or would not have happened without the existence of Social Media, but there may be some lessons to be learned about some important dimensions in understanding how successful Social Media may be during a revolution.
1 Whether government is a democracy or autocracy. If an autocratic leader is willing to suppress the opposition and if outside countries do not intervene (as they did in Libya), Social Media may have less impact than it would have in a democracy. However, Social Media still provides the opportunity to show the outside world what is going on. 2 The percentage of internet penetration and whether government controls the internet infrastructure. Obviously, it is far more difficult to mobilize the people via the internet if it is barely used. However, it still can be of use to reach the rest of the world. Also, if the state controls the Internet and telephony (Libya), it is far easier to block use of the Social Media than in a country where these communications are privatized (Egypt). Egypt had Vodafones cooperation in blocking the mobile communications, but this does not mean that companies in the future will be as cooperative.ix

3 How governments deal with Internet censorship Shutting down the internet completely the way Mubarak did, was not a good idea. He could not monitor how people organized their protests and it left all the bloggers with no choice but to head to the streets. The Internet shutdown outraged the Egyptian people and made them want to oust the dictator even more. It also gave the revolution a lot of media attention that wouldnt have been possible otherwise.x
4

Notaro, K. (2011). Egypt: Mubaraks Decision to Shut Down the Internet and Cell Phones: Updated. Consulted on the 16th of December 2011, http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/4543

Governments should think of more sophisticated ways to limit the power of Social Media. They could slow down the internet dramatically for example: sharing videos would become difficult and ineffective. 4 How intertwined Social Media is in everyday life. If a society uses Social Media in everyday commerce or to interact socially with each other, it will be much harder for countries to take measures without risking huge economic and social costs.xi Not a big deal There are, however, people claiming that Social Media did not play a crucial role at all. Malcolm Gladwell is one of them. He says that successful social movements existed far before the Social Media emerged (East Germany, eventually leading to the collapse of the Berlin Wall). He says that Twitter and Facebook may have been used by demonstrators to communicate during the uprisings, but that it isnt clear if they were crucial to the revolutions.

I mean, in cases where there are no tools of communication, people still get together. So I dont see that as being in looking at history, I dont see the absence of efficient tools of communication as being a limiting factor on the ability of people to socially organize.
Malcolm Gladwell in a cnn interview (on 27 march, 2011).xii
That people brought down governments before Facebook was invented, is not much of an argument. The same argument could be made about guns and thanks, but no one would deny that guns and tanks changed the nature of social revolutions.5 In the same interview, Gladwell also claims that Social Media can be used by dictators and governments to crack down on revolutions.

You could also make the opposite argument that some of these new technologies offer dictators a give them the potential to crackdown in ways they couldnt crackdown before. So, my point is that for everything that looks like its a step forward, theres another thing which says, well, actually, you know, there was a cost involved.

Ingram, M. (2011). @mathewi At one point, Gladwell could have made the same argument about guns. Consulted on the 5th of January 2012, https://twitter.com/#!/davepell/status/52466416246460416

In his book Net Delusion, Evgeny Morozov also argues that the Internet is as much of a danger to the social movements as it is a benefit (because the governments can monitor Facebook activity to see what the protestors are up to). This argument however, implies that social-media tools (although maybe not 100 percent beneficial) changed the nature of social activism. There have been successful revolutions without YouTube, Twitter, Facebook etc. but does that mean that Social Media cannot improve the revolution?

Future of Social Media One suggestion is that it will become a platform mostly beyond the reach of authorities. In the Middle East, there is a majlis system. In a majlis, people gather nightly, several times a week and they often discuss the issues of the day (subjects including politics and business). It has existed for a long time and now and in addition to the majlis system, a new public forum is developing. Online, that is.

Facebook offers a virtual platform for the advancement of political and social causes, and is quickly turning into a hotbed of actual activism - a cause for alarm for many autocratic regimes in the Middle East attempting to block it and curtail its reach.
- Nir Boms xiii

New arrows to the quivers of social activists It is hard to prove whether a revolution would have happened without the existence of Social Media, but, as pointed out above, there may be some learnable lessons in understanding how successful Social Media may be. The type of government, the degree of internet penetration, whether government controls the internet, how the government deals with the internet and whether or not Social Media is intertwined in daily life. All important dimensions. Social Media is useful and maybe even crucial when mobilizing protestors and creating momentum. It provides the opportunity to avoid state control and the revolutionaries are able to invalidate or put in perspective the words of the dictator. It is, however, far too easy to simply friend or like a movement on Facebook. A retweet is not enough. Protesters need to put their boots on the street.

The Arab Spring is the Start of a Long, Uncertain Path to Structural Change in the Middle East
- U.S. Ambassador Joseph LeBaron

The quarrel between cyber-utopians versus cybercritics

The Arab world has experienced an awakening of free expression that entered the politics of Tunisia and Egypt and has helped to break down the stranglehold of state-sponsored media and information monopolies in those countries. The Arab world has witnessed the rise of independent vibrant Social Media and steadily increasing citizen engagement on the Internet that is expected to attract 100 million Arab users by 2015.xiv Social Media have been playing a certain role in the Arab Spring and seem unstoppable but there has been some disagreement regarding this question between cyber- utopians and cyber- critics. We will discuss their views. This chapter highlights the different Social Media; how they are related to the revolutions in the Middle East; their role, considered from two opposite perspectives; in whose hands the power prevails; how the government and internet companies are perpetrators of censorship; why online freedom of speech does not necessarily mean freedom of reliable information expression and how the Werther Effect is involved in the revolutions. First of all, there are a couple of protagonists in the theatrical company of Social Media. The most popular sites are Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Google and Al Jazeera. Facebook is the most extended source for opinions about- and pictures of the revolution. You are able to post experiences, information, links, videos, pictures and react on these. Twitter is also for posting links, but well-known for its opportunity to post short messages with a 140 character limit. This gives us a brief overview of opinions, visions, events and happenings. YouTube is the website where people often post videos, particularly home-made videos of revolutionary events and demonstrations. On Google its search engine, you will find links to news websites and articles as well. Al Jazeera is a medium to compare different countries when it comes to Social Media. Showing tweets on its live stream and showing who is tweeting the most (Bahrain and Egypt). Altogether, these sites give an impression of the online possibilities with regard to the Arab Spring. They enabled major changes in a short amount of time. A revolution however does not originate in 18 days, which was proclaimed on (social) media regarding the Egyptian revolution. The preparing of this revolution has been going on for years. A few examples of pre-revolutionary situations in the main countries illustrate this fact.

Tunisia, for example, suffered from a series of conflicts over the past three years, the most notable occurring in the mining area of Gafsa in 2008, where bloody protests were going on for months and took many lives. The Egyptian labour movement had been active for years, with more than 3000 labour actions since 2004. One important demonstration was an attempted workers' strike on 6 April 2008 at the staterun textile factories of al-Mahalla al-Kubra, near to Cairo. The idea for this type of demonstration spread throughout the country and had been promoted by computer-literate working class youths and their supporters among middle-class college students.xv A Facebook page, set up to promote the strike, attracted tens of thousands of followers. The government mobilized to break the strike through infiltration and riot police, and while the regime was quite successful in forestalling a strike, dissidents formed the "6 April Committee" of youths and labour activists, which became one of the major forces calling for the anti-Mubarak demonstration on 25 January in Tahrir Square. In Algeria, discontent had been building for years over a number of issues. In February 2008, United States Ambassador Robert Ford wrote in a leaked diplomatic cable that Algeria is 'unhappy' with long-standing political alienation; that social discontent persisted throughout the country, with food strikes occurring almost every week; that there were demonstrations every day somewhere in the country; and that the Algerian government was corrupt and fragile.xvi Some have claimed that during 2010 there were as many as '9,700 riots and unrests' throughout the country.xvii Many protests focused on issues such as education and health care, while others protested against corruption. The Arab revolution did not originate in 18 days but the preparations had been going on for years, according to the situations in several Arab countries. The catalyst for the current escalation of protests however, was the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi on Saturday, on the 18th of December 2010. His death on 4 January brought together various groups dissatisfied with the existing system, including many unemployed, political and human rights activists, labour, trade unionists, students, professors, lawyers, and others to begin the Tunisian Revolution.xviii A quarrel has been going on about the exact role of Social Media in the revolutions. Two opposite parties play their part in the debate: the cyber- utopians and cyber- critics. Cyber- utopians assign considerable influence to Social Media in the proceedings where cybercritics assign almost no influence in the same proceedings. In accordance with the utopians, life has never been as good as it is right now (with the existence of internet, Social Media and the latest technologies). This vision is called 'Never-Better,' by Adam Gopnik. These 'Never-Better'-utopians are technological determinants: they claim technology dominates everything. This term is assigned to Marshall McLuhan. According to him, media are an extension of our senses and Social Media is our nature. The cyber- critics disagree. They think Social Media not the start of the revolutions. They think the power of Social Media in the world is not that great, although they acknowledge Social Media to have a certain influence. They form the middle mode between the 'Better-Never' and the 'EverWas'-perception on technological influence: they do not claim internet to be the Devil, but see Social Media just as a hype that will make place for another in several years. Cyber- critics are social constructivists in accordance to Raymond Williams, because they put social factors above technology. It is a debate where nuance plays a leading role. A debate in which, unfortunately, personal

experiences and mud throwing to the other side was considered more important than the actual discussion about the influence of Social Media. The debate is not about us but about Social Media. In which we put our views and personal horizons aside in favor of science.xiv There is another discussion point, namely where the source of power is situated in the Arab Spring. Where the former power was at the dictators hands, nowadays there has been a shift of power to the people instead. In particular to the online people, according to the utopians. The question is whether they are right. The power of the dictators should not be underestimated. They give the citizens the opportunity to push their vision through, by permitting or not being able to prevent Social Media. Dictators still have the capability to take their measures. Hundreds of Arab activists, writers, and journalists have faced repercussions because of their online activities. For instance in Egypt, blogger Kareem Amer was released in November 2010 after more than four years in prison and alleged torture for his writings that authorities said insulted Islam and defamed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.xix In Bahrain, a social networking campaign has called for the release of blogger Ali Abdulemam who has been imprisoned for allegedly posting false news on his popular site BahrainOnline.org.xx Egyptian authorities also showed their influence when they began blocking Twitter and Facebook on January 25, to disrupt activists who would use the site to coordinate protests on the first day of protests, against rising prices, unemployment and demands for reform. On January 28, Mubarak cut nearly all Internet access in the country. The same day, president Obama asked Mubarak to restore his countrys Internet, a request that signalled the importance of free expression. Internet service xiv has since been restored. In the Middle East, in contrast to the West, a great deal of information is censored. In Tunisia there is a severe censorship-legislation. But perhaps not for long: since the crash of the regime, representatives are chosen to write a new constitution. The government is called the 'offender' of censorship by many people. The reason of this is that the government has the possibility to forbid websites, messages and images when they are not happy with them. Cyber-utopians stand right across the cyber-critics. While the utopians claim that the Arab revolutions prevail because of the Social Media, the critics mention the 'person behind the tweet.' Real fighters quarrel on the streets, not online. While it may sound like a catchy sound bite, Tunisian activists were not calling the uprising in their country a Twitter Revolution. Actions speak louder than online words, yet no one should deny the crucial role of the micro-blogging site either, or the role that Social Media will continue to play in the Arab world. Facebook has accomplished to organise several uprisings and inform citizens about the revolutions, but many bloggers are still dissatisfied with the accomplishments of Social Media in the revolutions.

Even a channel like al-Jazeera, where people have so much hope invested in, is not as open to all those views that Social Media has raised, such as issues of sexuality, gender, and minority rights.
Egyptian Blogger Mona Eltahawy

According to George Washington Universitys Lynch: The real impact of political blogging is still likely to lie in the longer term impact on the individuals themselves, as they develop new political competencies and expectations and relationships. The impact of the new media technologies will likely be best measured in terms of the emergence of such new kinds of citizens and networks over the next decades, not in terms of institutional political changes over months or years. Social Media is just one actor on stage. We should not ascribe Social Media more honour than they deserve. Social Media do not reign, the people who are in charge of them reign. In the future it will be useful to train young Arabs how to better use the Internet and other digital technologies for political activism, advocacy, greater transparency and accountability, and other such democratic practices. To accomplish that, you must be aware of the actual impact on the political culture of young Arabs who use the new media and look for the most appropriate way to promote this sector.

Str aight from the horses mou th: h ow two Egyptian students experienced the revolution in Egypt
The Arab world is completely different from the world we live in. Demonstrations and violence constitute the current reality in the Arab world. To get an impression of the current progress of the revolutions, many people consult a newspaper. This way, the reality comes a bit closer. On the internet, especially via Social Media , one can learn a lot about the ongoing events. Media bring the world closer together, but because there are so many different types of media, each with their own coloured perspective, it is important to get a clear view on what really happened over there. The closer one comes to the source of the news, the more reliable the news will be. Luckily, we were able to reach two people living close to the situation (in Egypt, that is). We would like to share the opinions of both Tony Wahba Mossad, a 21-year-old student from Alexandria, and Bassel Yacoub, a 22-year-old student from Cairo, to broaden your mind. Students are par excellence part of the revolution and the future of their country. It is important, however, to realise that students are the privileged few in Egypt. The vast majority of the population consists of poor, uneducated people, not speaking English. They might have a whole different view regarding the revolution, but let us find out how these students experienced the revolutions. Interview Tony Wahba Mossad A revolution has been going on. How did this take place? The demonstrations emerged because of the dishonesty of the government and the power that Mubarak gave to the police without any supervision. A police officer can put in prison whoever he wants. The second thing is that our income goes to the elite. The normal people work for the food and luxury of the rich. Also, people feel that the world has made a lot of progress, but Egypt did not and therefore lags behind. Now that Mubarak is gone, has the situation been improved? I think it has, but the problem has shifted from a cruel dictator to the disagreement between Muslims and Christians. We want to do everything to prevent violence between these two groups. So we want to do everything for taking the right steps instead of the violence. Sure it is better since Mubarak left but people feel that the army wants to protect the president. What do the revolutionaries and demonstrators want? We want Mubarak to get what he deserves. The demonstrators and the revolutionaries want a fair judgment for the president.

What role does/did the Social Media play in your revolution (think of Facebook, twitter, Al Jazeera, YouTube etc.)? The media played a big show in this revolution: they helped most of the people to know the truth from the videos and live channels. They helped a lot of people to get to know the truth. They still do so actually and we are happy with them. Do you think social media is one of the causes of the revolution? I am not sure. What I do know is that the media have a part in the revolution, also in the very beginning. But then the people became extremely mad and went to start showing and sharing their sadness and madness. The revolution in Tunisia gives the people here the hope to go out and stand up for their rights. I think that can be considered more as a cause of our revolution. What social medium do you think is the most influential in your country? All the media play their part. I think the variety of the different media makes a good platform to report about the situation in the country. In general I think Facebook is the most popular medium. For in Egypt it is. Did you take part in the revolution and how? Yes I took part, I went out and demonstrated for our rights with others. My friends and I believe this is a very important thing to do for the society. What would you do different in the revolution? I think all the protesters are doing a great job, but the militarists are not. They should not try to stop our revolution, because the dissatisfaction of the people from Egypt is just too big to handle. If I could change one thing, it would be the violence. But I think it is not possible to have a peaceful revolution. What are the results of the revolution in your country? The only result till now is that we ousted Mubarak and at the moment, we are waiting for the next president to step up and reshape the political system. What is the most remarkable event in the revolution and why? The resignation of Mubarak, because that was our main goal. I am still waiting for the next big thing to happen, I hope the formation of a democracy will be next. What modernizations will follow up the revolution, in your expectations? The only thing that will make the country modern, is someone who becomes a real leader and love our country and all people and respect everyone. A respectful man must lead our country.

Interview Bassel Yacoub A revolution has been going on. How did this take place? There are many ways to look at that. Economically for example. Egypt was very stable and the stock forecasts were showing a rise in trend, but that was at the expense of having 40% of the population categorized as poor, and getting even poorer by time. What the revolution has revealed is that the whole regime was stacking up millions when some people had no food to eat! Now that Mubarak is gone, has the situation been improved? The revolution has caused a lot of disturbance for a lot of people, in the end of the day all a sincere Egyptian wants is a little bit of food on his table, and because the economy has completely shattered with the regime, many people are at unrest and lose focus of the real goals. But everyone was able to determine their loyalties and became more aware politically. The situation has not yet been enough improved. What do the revolutionaries and demonstrators want? Bread, Freedom, Social Justice! To clarify, the demonstrators on the 25th of January weren't the poor people asking for their rights, but the college kids asking for the rights of those could not speak for themselves. The people have realized that the only way to reach these goals was to dissolute the regime. Nowadays political stability could be added on the list. What role do/did Social Media play in the revolution? When you speak of media you should separate between a profit organization (Al Jazeera), national TV (News), Self-Journalism (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Profit organizations tried to spread panic by gossiping and made up conspiracy theories to scare people from anything. National TV, based to the old regime was trying to get people out of the Tahrir square by scaring them with fake calls to the TV from supposedly very freaked out people. Finally, Self-Journalism was the one of the most credible sources, as people from inside the square would post pictures, tweets, and videos of everything going on, revealing all the tricks and editing done by the TV channels. Do you think social media are one of the causes of the revolution? The media were definitely not the cause of the revolution, although the social media will not act out of character. What social medium has been the most influential in your country? I would say Facebook and Twitter. Did you take (or do you know someone who took) part in the revolution and how? In the beginning, we were not sure about the revolution, so I decided not to take part, although some of

my friends did. Later on however, I took part in helping to clean the streets of Cairo and attended a lot of demonstrations lately. What would you do different in the revolution? Anything to reduce the number of martyrs, my brothers and sisters who died for my freedom. The problem however is not what I would do different, but rather what the regime should have done different. What are the results of the revolution in your country? Not much, we still have the same regime, but with different names. Mubarak=SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) National Party=MB (Muslim Brotherhood) party. The change is yet to come! Do you think there are differences between the Muslims and Christians, according to the revolution? Social Tolerance between religions does not mean that we are not different, it means that we respect and love each other despite of our differences and disagreements as Egyptians. Yet some religious leaders from both sides are not tolerant to the other side, and the media uses these to spice things up and create division between the people. I am a Christian and many Muslims would agree with me that we are brothers and sisters despite of our religion. What is the most remarkable happening in the revolution and why? I think the most remarkable thing is that the people learned that they have power, and that they are the ones who give authority to the ones in power. So, whoever tries to use power in rule should be warned that the people have been enlightened and will not accept oppression anymore. Which modernizations, do you expect, will follow the revolution? The real change need to happen in the peoples attitudes, the Islam does not really offer a method of trusting God with your life and many Christians do not truly trust God with their lives, and until people learn this they will never feel safe, even if there is economic and political stability. This change might take a few generations to take place.

Utopian citizens It is interesting to see the similarities between the two students. According to them, this revolution is special: not just the underclass is dissatisfied, but also the middle class. As a result, a strong hatred against the regime has emerged. The interviews show that nationalism is the binding factor between the Muslims and Christians, even though they usually are each others opposites. Yacoub for example feels sorry for his brothers and sisters who died for his freedom only by expressing their views. According to Mossad, the violence should be heavily reduced. The violence seems more a matter between the government and people, than among the people. Despite their faith, the Arab people see each other as compatriots, with whom they have to work together in order to get a new regime. Although the focus of the revolution may be on human rights, the students also emphasize the need of basic necessities like food. Both students are remarkably happy with Social Media. It is one of the most credible sources, according to Yacoub. People from inside the Tahrir Square, in the midst of the demonstrations, post pictures, tweets, and videos of everything going on, revealing the tricks and editing of the TV channels. Because Yacoub criticises the National Television, not the Social Media, his view approaches the cyber-utopian vision. Cyber-utopians assign considerable influence to Social Media in the proceedings where cyber-critics assign almost no influence in the same proceedings. On the one hand, they have an optimistic view towards the revolution, because they learned that they have had a certain influence. On the other hand, the economy almost collapsed under the regime, and the revolution did not change this yet. The irony of this situation is that exactly when people take part in the revolution, they stop working so there is still no food. Many people lose focus on the real goals. Although the people feel that they have the power to have a certain impact on the revolution, in fact there has not been achieved much. The change is yet to come, or as Yacoub says: We planted the seed, so that the next generation will enjoy the shade.

Conclusion
One of the reasons for the protesters in the Middle East to organize the revolution was that they wanted to get rid of their dictators and their autocratic regimes. We were wondering why there were no Arab democracies in these countries, because this could have prevented the revolutions. We found that the lack of democracy had several underlying causes. First and perhaps most important is that it is because of the oil curse. Furthermore, we mentioned the lack of (fair) political competition and the role of the West. Donating billions to the Middle East, the U.S. contributes to authoritarianism, giving the dictators even more reasons not to tax their citizens. To get the democratization process going, the West can play a crucial role. Besides knowing why there were no democracies in these countries, it is crucial to know which functions Social Media had in order to discover how big a role Social Media played. We had a look at the facts and figures regarding the tweets sent during the turmoil. We wanted to know if the internet penetration differed between the different Arab countries and we tried to get as close to the source as possible by interviewing two Egyptian students. We found that Social Media is useful and maybe even crucial when mobilizing protestors and creating momentum. It provides the opportunity to avoid state control and the revolutionaries are able to invalidate or put in perspective the words of the dictator. We also should not forget to mention the longer term impact on the individuals, as they develop new political competencies, expectations and relationships:

The impact of the new media technologies will likely be best measured in terms of the emergence of such new kinds of citizens and networks over the next decades, not in terms of institutional political changes over months or years.
- Marc Lynch, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. It is, on the other hand, far too easy to simply friend or like a movement on Facebook. A retweet is not enough. Protesters need to put their boots on the street. In the end, the real weapon is the power of networked communication itself. Before we started writing this paper, our views were polarised. Aron thought that Social Media played a significant role in the developments in the Arab Spring and that it has had a lot of influence on politics in the Middle East. Maria, however, expected that the role was overstated and the new technologies were of little significance for the development of the Arab revolutions. We did agree on that Social Media played a certain role, but we were both curious for how big a role it played. Now that we got a better understanding of the role Social Media played, we think the role is overstated in the media, but certainly did play a crucial role in several stages of the democratization process. In the quarrel between Cyber-utopians and cyber- critics, we therefore choose to stay in the middle. While it may sound like a catchy sound bite, it is too easy to call the uprisings a Twitter Revolution.

Actions speak louder than online words, yet no one should deny the crucial role of networks such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube either, or the role that Social Media will continue to play in the Arab world.

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Author Unknown. (2011). An ailing and fragile Algerian regime drifts into 2008. Consulted on the 5th of January 2012, http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2011/02/25/leakspin-07algiers1806-an-ailing-andfragile-algerian-regime-drifts-into-2008/
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