You are on page 1of 92

Studienarbeit

Aus dem Prfungsfach

Flugsicherung

Development and implementation of a method to predict the air traffic in Africa for the year 2020 and its impact on the upper airspace using RAMS Plus
RAMS Plus is a software designed by ISA Software Ltd St. Georges House 38 215-219 Chester Road M15 4JE Manchester United Kingdom

Betreuer: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Httig Dipl.-Ing. Bjrn Appel

vorgelegt an der Technischen Universitt Berlin Fachgebiet Flugfhrung und Luftverkehr

von: Tobias Wulff Trtzschlerstrae 2 12487 Berlin Matrikelnummer: 30 06 58 Abgabetermin: 05.04.2011

PAGE II

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................II LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................ V LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................... VIII ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................ IX ABSTRACT .................................................................................... XI EXTRAKT ...................................................................................... XI 1
1.1 1.2 1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.3

INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................13
Motivation .......................................................................................................... 13 Background ....................................................................................................... 13 Air traffic in Africa .......................................................................................... 13 Geographical area covered ........................................................................... 14 Navigation ..................................................................................................... 15 Surveillance .................................................................................................. 17 Requirements .................................................................................................... 17

2
2.1

METHODOLOGY ............................................................................19
RAMS Plus 5.0 .................................................................................................. 19 Data integration............................................................................................. 23 Aircraft performance ..................................................................................... 23 Scenario ............................................................................................................ 25 Airspace ........................................................................................................ 25 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.2 2.2.1

2.2.1.1 Special use airspace ................................................................................ 29 2.2.1.2 Navigation data ........................................................................................ 30 2.2.2 2.2.3 Airport operations.......................................................................................... 30 Controllers .................................................................................................... 32

2.2.3.1 Rulebase definition ................................................................................... 32 2.2.3.2 Detection geometry models ...................................................................... 36 2.2.3.3 Detection multipliers ................................................................................. 37

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE III 2.2.4 Traffic............................................................................................................ 37

2.2.4.1 Traffic data ............................................................................................... 37 2.2.4.2 Traffic growth ........................................................................................... 41

3
3.1 3.2 3.3

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ................................................................ 46


Restrictions........................................................................................................ 47 Traffic flow ......................................................................................................... 49 Initial Situation (2010) ........................................................................................ 50 Planning controllers ...................................................................................... 50 Tactical controllers ........................................................................................ 54 Adjustment of scenario ...................................................................................... 57 Predicted Situation (2020) ................................................................................. 59 Antananarivo ................................................................................................. 59 Beira ............................................................................................................. 60 Dar es Salaam .............................................................................................. 60 Entebbe ........................................................................................................ 63 Gaborone ...................................................................................................... 63 Harare ........................................................................................................... 64 Kinshasa ....................................................................................................... 66 Lilongwe ........................................................................................................ 68 Luanda .......................................................................................................... 69 Lusaka .......................................................................................................... 69 Matsapha ...................................................................................................... 70 Mauritius ....................................................................................................... 71 Nairobi .......................................................................................................... 71 Seychelles..................................................................................................... 73 Windhoek ...................................................................................................... 74

3.3.1 3.3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3 3.5.4 3.5.5 3.5.6 3.5.7 3.5.8 3.5.9 3.5.10 3.5.11 3.5.12 3.5.13 3.5.14 3.5.15

4
4.1 4.2

VALIDATION ..................................................................................75
RAMS Plus ........................................................................................................ 75 Scenario ............................................................................................................ 76

SUMMARY .................................................................................... 78

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE IV

REFERENCES ................................................................................79 APPENDIX 1 ..................................................................................83 APPENDIX 2 ..................................................................................84 APPENDIX 3 ..................................................................................85 APPENDIX 4 ..................................................................................86 APPENDIX 5 ..................................................................................86 APPENDIX 6 ..................................................................................87 APPENDIX 7 ..................................................................................89 APPENDIX 8 ..................................................................................90 APPENDIX 9 ..................................................................................92

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE V

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 : ESAF ................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2 : Geographical area covered .................................................................................. 15 Figure 3 : Areas of routing12 ................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4: Actual state of surveillance capabilities12 .............................................................. 18 Figure 5: Controller windows................................................................................................ 21 Figure 6 : Detection geometry models ................................................................................. 22 Figure 7: Separation priorities .............................................................................................. 22 Figure 8: True air speed ...................................................................................................... 24 Figure 9: Rate of climb......................................................................................................... 24 Figure 10: Rate of descent .................................................................................................. 25 Figure 11: Traffic load with single Nairobi control sector ...................................................... 27 Figure 12: Traffic load with splitted Nairobi control sectors .................................................. 27 Figure 13: Restricted airspaces ........................................................................................... 30 Figure 14: Controller rule Level_Off_Lower_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict ........................... 35 Figure 15: Geometric conflict classification diagram ............................................................ 36 Figure 16: Number of international non-scheduled flights .................................................... 38 Figure 17: Number of international scheduled flights ........................................................... 39 Figure 18: Number of international scheduled flights of selected airlines ............................. 40 Figure 19: Departing and arriving seats per hour at O.R. Tambo International Airport ......... 40 Figure 20: Departing and arriving seats per hour at Jomo Kenyatta Intl. Airport .................. 41 Figure 21: Comparison of different growth rates .................................................................. 42 Figure 22: Comparison of GDP per capita growth versus Inflation ....................................... 43 Figure 23: Movement growth calculation per country ........................................................... 45 Figure 24: Traffic distribution by sector entries .................................................................... 46 Figure 25: Sectors excessing workload of 55% 2010........................................................... 47 Figure 26: Sectors excessing workload of 55% 2020........................................................... 48 Figure 27: Main traffic flows (RAMS screenshot) ................................................................. 49 Figure 28: Taskload of planning controllers 2010 ................................................................ 50 Figure 29: Segmentation of workload Dar es Salaam East Planning Controller ................... 51 Figure 30: Trafficflow Gaborone and Harare ACC per sliding hour ...................................... 52 Figure 31: Comparison of workload and traffic peaks in Nairobi ACC2 ................................ 53 Figure 32: Entry and exit of flights to and from Nairobi ACC2 .............................................. 53 LIST OF FIGURES

PAGE VI Figure 33: Tasks of Nairobi ACC 2 planning controller ........................................................ 54 Figure 34: Taskload of tactical controllers 2010 ................................................................... 54 Figure 35: Sector entry and exit to and from Dar es Salaam East ....................................... 55 Figure 36: Tasks and conflict situations between 18:00 and 19:00 of Dar es Salaam East tactical controller .................................................................................................................. 56 Figure 37: Gaborone and Harare sector tasks and traffic .................................................... 56 Figure 38: Distribution of tasks Dar es Salaam East planning controller .............................. 57 Figure 39: Comparison of taskloads before and after adjustment ........................................ 58 Figure 40: Comparison of taskloads Antananarivo............................................................... 59 Figure 41: Comparison of taskloads Beira ........................................................................... 60 Figure 42: Comparison of taskloads Dar es Salaam East .................................................... 61 Figure 43: Movements at major airports Dar es Salaam East (18:00-22:30) ........................ 61 Figure 44: Comparison of taskloads Dar es Salaam West ................................................... 62 Figure 45: Traffic by entry and exit FL Dar es Salaam West (arranged by sector entry times) ............................................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 46: Comparison of taskloads Entebbe ...................................................................... 63 Figure 47: Traffic by intention Entebbe ................................................................................ 63 Figure 48: Comparison of taskloads Gaborone.................................................................... 64 Figure 49: New flights crossing Gaborone ........................................................................... 64 Figure 50: Comparison of taskloads Harare ........................................................................ 65 Figure 51: Comparison of taskloads Kinshasa ..................................................................... 66 Figure 52: Comparison of taskloads Kisangani .................................................................... 67 Figure 53: Comparison of taskloads Lubumbashi ................................................................ 67 Figure 54: Comparison of taskloads Lilongwe ..................................................................... 68 Figure 55: Number of flights crossing Lilongwe sector ......................................................... 68 Figure 56: Comparison of taskloads Luanda........................................................................ 69 Figure 57: Comparison of taskloads Lusaka ........................................................................ 69 Figure 58: Taskload of tactical controller vs. traffic entering Lusaka sector ......................... 70 Figure 59: Comparison of taskloads Matsapha .................................................................... 70 Figure 60: Comparison of taskloads Mauritius ..................................................................... 71 Figure 61: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC1 .............................................................. 72 Figure 62: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC2 .............................................................. 72 Figure 63: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC3 .............................................................. 73 Figure 64: Comparison of taskloads Seychelles .................................................................. 73 Figure 65: Comparison of taskloads Windhoek North .......................................................... 74 LIST OF FIGURES

PAGE VII Figure 66: Comparison of taskloads Windhoek South ......................................................... 74 Figure 67: Route usage 2020 (more than 20 flights per day) ............................................... 76

LIST OF TABLES

PAGE VIII

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Airport capacity (examples) .................................................................................... 31 Table 2: Tactical controller rulegroups ................................................................................. 34 Table 3: Flights crossing Harare .......................................................................................... 65

LIST OF TABLES

PAGE IX

ABBREVIATIONS
ACAS ACT ADS ADS-B ADS-C AFI AICD ANSP APIRG APV ASECNA ASK ATC ATFM ATM ATS BADA CNS CPDLC DRC EAC ESAF FIR FL FY GANP GDP ICAO MSP NOTAM PBN Airborne Collision Avoidance System Activation Message Automatic Dependent Surveillance ADS Broadcast ADS Contract Africa-Indian Ocean Region Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Air Navigation Service Provider AFI Planning and Implementation Regional Group Approach with Vertical Guidance L'Agence pour la Scurit de la Navigation arienne en Afrique et Madagascar Available Seat Kilometers Air Traffic Control Air Traffic Flow Management Air Traffic Management Air Traffic Services Base of Aircraft Data Communications, Navigation, Surveillance Controller Pilot Datalink Communications Democratic Republic of the Congo East African Community Eastern and Southern African Office of the ICAO, Nairobi, Kenya Flight Information Region Flight Level Fiscal Year Global Air Navigation Plan, Doc 9750, ICAO Gross Domestic Product International Civil Aviation Organization Multi Sector Planner Notice To Airmen Performance Based Navigation ABBREVIATIONS

PAGE X PPP RF RNAV RNP ROC ROD RPK RVSM RWY SADC SBAS SID STAR SUA TAS TMA TWY UTC VHF VNAV WACAF Purchasing Power Parity Radius-to-Fix Area Navigation Required Navigation Performance Rate Of Climb Rate Of Descent Revenue Passenger Kilometres Reduced Vertical Separation Minima Runway Southern African Development Community Satellite Based Augmentation System Standard Instrument Departure Route Standard Arrival Route Special Use Airspace True Air Speed Terminal Area Taxiway Universal Time Coordinated Very High Frequency Vertical Navigation Western and Central African Office of the ICAO, Dakar, Senegal

ABSTRACT

PAGE XI

ABSTRACT
This thesis is aimed at identifying the present situation of airspace usage in EAC and SADC countries and making a prediction for the year 2020. RAMS Plus is used for the simulation process and the subsequent analyses in order to evaluate its suitability for this kind of analyses. Air traffic is seen as a strong contributor to economic development and is therefore of major importance for the countries in the geographical area covered. Airspace capacity does not solely relate to dimension. Restrictions are imposed by operational and safety aspects. The question that has to be answered finally: Is ATC in the EAC and SADC able to handle the traffic grow that can be expected in the coming years?

EXTRAKT
Diese Arbeit verfolgt zwei Ziele. Bevor nher darauf eingegangen wird, ist es notwendig, ein bergreifendes Problem, welches bereits in der Vorbereitung der Simulationen festgestellt wurde, zu erwhnen. Die Datengrundlage fr fast alle Aspekte der Arbeit ist Beschrnkungen unterworfen. Diese ergeben sich in erster Linie aus der unzureichenden statistischen Arbeit und den Beschrnkungen in der Informationspolitik der beteiligten Akteure. Daher war es notwendig, wiederholt bergrndete Annahmen zu treffen. Eine Bewertung ob der Gte der Annahmen kann, unter der Voraussetzung zur Verfgung stehender Daten, erst im Nachhinein erfolgen. Das erste Ziel der Arbeit soll eine Bewertung von RAMS Plus als Simulationsprogramm in Hinblick auf die vorliegende und weiterfhrende Untersuchungen erfolgen. Im Laufe der Simulationen wurde die Komplexitt der Simulationsumgebung sukzessive gesteigert. Die Mglichkeiten der Software sind damit bei weitem noch nicht erschpft. Es ist festzustellen, dass zu Beginn eine Entscheidung hinsichtlich des Umfangs notwendig ist. Dieser Umfang orientiert sich stark an den Zielen, die zu erreichen, angestrebt wird. Auch wenn grundstzlich die Mglichkeit besteht, Luftrume und Flughfen mit hohem Detailgrad zu simulieren, sollte dies den Notwendigkeiten angepasst werden. Einerseits reduziert dies den Aufwand in der Vorbereitung der Datenbasis, andererseits wird die bersichtlichkeit der am Ende zur Auswertung bereitgestellten Daten gewhrleistet. Eine groe Datenmenge fhrt leicht zu Fehlinterpretationen oder berbewertungen einzelner Aspekte. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein Mittelweg angestrebt indem der zu untersuchende Luftraum vertikal beschrnkt wird. Ein Zugestndnis wird jedoch bezglich der Flughafenkapazitt gemacht. Dies geschieht in der Absicht eine bermige Belastung durch an- und abfliegende Verkehre zu verhindern. Im Rahmen der Analyse ergibt sich jedoch, dass dies keine ausreichende Manahme darstellt. Dem wird dahingehend Rechnung getragen, dass entsprechende Situationen identifiziert und Auswertungsergebnisse als berbewertet gekennzeichnet werden. Die Einbeziehung von An- und Abflugrouten mit definierten Staffelungen widerspricht dem Ansatz, die Simulation auf ein Mittelma an Detailliertheit zu beschrnken. Darber hinaus sind qualitative Schlussfolgerungen ohne weiteres mglich. Des Weiteren sind Luftraumgrenzen sehr detailliert implementiert. Dies ist grundstzlich nicht notwendig. In diesem Fall wird es jedoch als sinnvoll angesehen, da im Vorfeld ein Einfluss auf die Arbeitslast vermutet wurde. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse besttigen die Vermutung. Auch wenn kurzzeitige Sektoreinflge zumeist auf Grundlage von bilateralen Absprachen ohne den bergang der taktischen Kontrolle ber ein Luftfahrzeug bearbeitet werden, stellt die berwachung dieses Verkehrs dennoch eine Arbeitsbelastung dar. Eine wesentliche Erweiterung zur Datengrundlage die RAMS Plus zur Verfgung stellt, ist die Einfhrung von Flugverkehrskontrolllotsen, denen ausschlielich nicht radargesttze Staffelungsverfahren zur Verfgung stehen. Dazu wurden Anpassungen in der Beschreibung der simulierten Arbeitsweisen durchgefhrt.

ABSTRACT

PAGE XII Das zweite Ziel ist die Analyse der Verkehrs- und Luftraumsituation fr einen Vorhersagezeitraum von etwa zehn Jahren. Hierfr ist zunchst die Erstellung einer hinreichend validen Datenbasis notwendig. Auf Beschrnkungen, die hinsichtlich der Datenakquise bestehen, wurde oben hingewiesen. Die am kritischsten zu hinterfragenden Datenstze betreffen zum einen die Arbeitsweise der Flugverkehrskontrolllotsen. Lokale Absprachen, wie oben erwhnt, sind nicht ffentlich zugngig und knnen daher nicht in der Simulation bercksichtigt werden. Dies ist insbesondere im Hinblick auf die Situation im Luftraum Sdafrikas problematisch. Die Auswertungsergebnisse stellten sich als unzuverlssig und unrealistisch heraus. Daher wurde auf eine weitere Analyse dieses Luftraumes verzichtet. Der sdafrikanische Flugsicherungsanbieter ist darber hinaus operationell und technisch das am weitesten entwickelte Unternehmen im Untersuchungsgebiet. Daher ist anzunehmen, dass existierende und zuknftige Engpsse, die sich vornehmlich im nationalen Verkehr ergeben, nicht im Rahmen von regionalen Kooperationen gelst werden und somit fr die Gesamtsituation des Untersuchungsgebietes von geringer Relevanz sind. Zum anderen ist auch die Prognose fr die Steigerung des Verkehrs bis zum Jahr 2020 kritisch zu bewerten. Es wird versucht, einen vertretbaren Ansatz zu finden. Verlssliche Zahlen seitens der Flugsicherungsanbieter existieren nicht. Daher wird auf einer sicheren Grundlage eine neue Vorhersagestrategie entworfen. Dies kann in zweierlei Hinsicht vertreten werden. Prognosen ber einen Zeitraum von zehn Jahren fr einen volatilen Markt wie den Luftverkehr in einem volatilen Umfeld wie Sd- und Ostafrika knnen nur eine begrenzte Belastbarkeit aufweisen. Das Erreichen der Kapazittsgrenze eines Luftraumes kann entweder ber einen Zeitpunkt (vgl. Bemerkung zu Verlsslichkeit von Prognosen) oder eine maximal beherrschbare Verkehrssteigerung ausgedrckt werden. Das Ergebnis der Arbeit zeigt, dass fr den Verkehrszuwachs in den kommenden Jahren ausreichend Kapazitten zur Verfgung stehen. Diese Kapazitten sind jedoch sehr ungleich verteilt und die Grenzen werden in einigen Bereichen in absehbarer Zeit erreicht sein. Daher sind Vernderungen in der Struktur der Luftraumorganisation und Kontrolle unabdingbar. Untersuchungen zu mglichen Alternativen wren wnschenswert und im Sinne der beteiligten Staaten, Luftraumnutzer und Passagiere.

EXTRAKT

INTRODUCTION

PAGE 13

1
1.1

INTRODUCTION
MOTIVATION

In June 2003 the fourteenth meeting of the Africa-Indian Ocean Region (AFI) Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APIRG) considered the concept of a single sky for the AFI region. What does that mean? Harmonization of air traffic management systems and procedures, including human resource and training plans and programmes; Rationalization of areas of service; Establishment of cooperative arrangements between ATS providers; Eventual consolidation of cooperative models for the provision of air traffic services []1. Since then progress has been made. ATS routes have been and continue to be aligned with user requests2. During APIRG/17 held 2-6 August 2010 the PBN Task Force was mandated with the development of an airspace concept based on the AFI PBN regional implementation plan3, in order to design and implement a trunk route network, connecting major city pairs in the upper airspace and for transit to and from aerodromes, on the basis of PBN, e.g. RNAV 10 and RNAV 5 taking into account interregional harmonization4 within the timeframe 2009 2012. So far no assessment of restrictions due to airspace and ATC capacity has been conducted. This is one objective of this thesis, the other one being to determine the suitability of RAMS Plus 5.0 for this and similar analyses.

1.2
1.2.1

BACKGROUND
AIR TRAFFIC IN AFRICA

Africa is the continent with the least share of worlds air traffic. Only 2.6% of international and domestic scheduled services are conducted by African airlines. Regarding international services only that share increases to 4%. Taking into account the fact that most African countries are less densely populated than Europe or even North America it is noticeable that domestic air traffic obviously plays a minor role. African airlines offered 155 Billion seat kilometres on international and domestic routes in 20085, more than half of these on intra-African flights. Total air traffic added up to around 330 Billion ASK6. Europe maintains to be the most 7 important intercontinental destination accounting for two-thirds of the traffic . Both major aircraft manufactures forecast a traffic growth above world average. Airbus expects the African

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

APIRG/14, Conclusion 14/30 PRND WG/1 AFI PBN Regional Implementation Plan, WP/7 APIRG/17, WP/7 ICAO: Annual Report of the Council, 2008, (p.98) Boeing: Current Market Outlook, 2009-2028, (p.20) Airbus: Global Market Forecast 2009-2028, (p.136)

MOTIVATION

INTRODUCTION
8

PAGE 14

market to grow at 5.6% over the next 20 years with the Middle East and Asian markets to be the most vibrant.

1.2.2

GEOGRAPHICAL AREA COVERED

The geographical area covered in this thesis includes the continental and oceanic airspaces of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and East African Community (EAC) states. These communities are formed by the following countries: Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. They are marked black in Figure 2. Additionally the airspace above the Union of the Comoros will be included as it is located between Madagascar and Tanzania and therefore is closing a gap in the area examined.

Figure 1 : ESAF9 This has as well some congruency with the area of responsibility of the Eastern and Southern African Office of the ICAO (ESAF). In cooperation with the Western and Central African Office (WACAF) their member states are working together in the APIRG. This group has been established to develop a regional plan for air navigation systems in accordance with the Global Air Navigation Plan10 (GANP) of the ICAO as a step towards a global ATM system. Planning and implementation is prepared by different sub-groups and by task forces for distinct problems. Madagascar and the Comoros are member states of the Agency for Aerial Navigation Safety in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA). ASECNA is the joint ATS provider for these two countries and 15 West and Central African francophone states and has strong relations to France which is still a consultant member. Their airspaces have been restructured to operational needs for example by reducing the number of FIRs to six11. But this did not take place in interaction with an adjustment of ATS-routes to the requirements of airlines. The high level of cooperation in the Western and Central parts of Africa is not implemented in the geographical area covered in this thesis making this region more interesting in regard to possible future airspace structure. The countries in the North of the continent share a common cultural and historical background. Basically relations are stronger to the Mediterranean region than to the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Taking these facts into account the selected area may be recognized as being somewhat self-contained. Before going into the details of the scenario a general description of the technical and operational situation of ATS in the geographical area covered shall be given, followed by an outline of the goals pursued by the APIRG for the future.

8 9

Airbus: Global Market Forecast 2009-2028, (p.138) ESAF ICAO: Doc 9750, Appendix A AIP ASECNA, ENR-2-1-01

10 11

BACKGROUND

INTRODUCTION

PAGE 15

Figure 2 : Geographical area covered12

1.2.3

NAVIGATION

Navigation and routing in many African countries is still based on ground aids like VOR, DME and NDB. A reason for that is partly the equipage of aircraft used in commercial service within Africa. That causes two major problems. On the one hand it reduces the number of possible routings to direct connections between these facilities that often show considerable differences to economically and ecologically optimized great circle routes. On the other hand it requires high financial efforts to maintain the availability and accuracy of those facilities. Therefore ICAO set up the Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Programme13 and the Africa-Indian Ocean Region (AFI) States agreed on the implementation of these concepts on the 16th APIRG meeting14 by establishing a task force to develop an implementation plan. Work on this plan has gone forward and the latest draft was accepted at the Second Joint Meeting of the APIRG Performance Based Navigation and Global Navigation Satellite System Implementation Task Forces in Dakar, Senegal, 2-4 March 201015. The implementation is planned to be divided into three phases: Near Term (2008-2012), Mid Term (2013-2016) and Long Term (2017 and Beyond). It is important to notice that RVSM is fully implemented in the AFI Region since 25 September 200816. Therefore only lateral navigation specifications are covered in this program.

12 13 14 15 16

Map ICAO: PBN Programme APIRG/16, Decision 16/2 AFI En-Route - Systems Evolution 1999-2010, Appendix A ICAO: AFI Regional Report 2009, (p.25-29)

BACKGROUND

INTRODUCTION 1. Near Term (2008-2012)

PAGE 16

RNAV 10/5 or RNP 4 where operationally required by 2010 for en-route oceanic and remote continental airspace RNAV 5 or RNAV 1 where operationally required for continental airspace RNAV 1 or RNP 1 in terminal airspace RNP Approaches with barometrical VNAV or SBAS The separation minima will consequently be reduced in correlation with safety assessments. The actual state of en-route navigation was presented at the Third Meeting of the APIRG Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Sub-Group in Nairobi, Kenya, 2630 April 201017 and listed in Appendix 1. Areas of routing have been defined alongside the most relevant flows of traffic in the GANP. The areas affected in this thesis are illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3 : Areas of routing12 For many of the countries funding and issuing of associated policies is regarded challenging. Especially airlines are requested to enhance their navigation equipment to be able to operate in the satellite based navigation environment. This can be supported by establishing more RNAV and RNP procedures at airports and en-route benefiting aircraft operations and reducing communication workload because of seamless transitions to and from the ATS route system. 2. Mid Term (2013-2016) Further increase in the required precision for en-route navigation to RNAV 5/2 or RNAV 1 in continental airspace

17

CNS/SG/3, WP/38

BACKGROUND

INTRODUCTION Expand RNAV and RNP procedures in terminal airspaces and approaches

PAGE 17

En-route airspace should be reviewed by the end of this phase and flexible use of airspace implemented. Benefits from assigning three-dimensional clearances in fueleconomics and conflict predictability will evolve. In terminal airspaces the establishment of satellite-based arrival and approach procedures will not only make conventional navigation aids dispensable and thereby reduce maintenance costs for ANSPs but also allow departure and arrival management systems to be installed. 3. Long Term (2017 and beyond) RNAV and RNP operations mandatory The increased level of information exchange between aircraft and ATC will allow real air traffic management reducing the workload of controllers to monitoring the traffic flow and only taking action when required. This may be the case when a separation infringement is identified by the system or due to airspace usage restriction linked to meteorological conditions. An overview of the implementation strategy is given in the table Appendix 2.

1.2.4

SURVEILLANCE

ATC in Africa is mostly performed by conventional control due to a lack of surveillance systems. But progress has been made during recent years. This can be derived from the Information presented in the AFI En-Route - Systems Evolution 1999-2010 (cf. reference 17). Figure 4 shows the current state of surveillance capabilities in the area covered. Conventional ATC is based on time and/or distance to certain navigation points. For safety reasons separation between aircraft is increased in comparison to airspace covered and controlled with radar. Surveillance of the South Atlantic is backed upon ADS. South Africa commenced trials with a prototype system in 1999. That system became operational in 200418. Until 2006 the oceanic part of Luanda FIR was planned to be covered by ADS but implementation has been delayed. The project is now scheduled for completion in mid-201019. The north eastern part of the examined area is controlled mostly by conventional means. 20 Only the Kenyan airspace is radar-covered to a recognisable extent . The AFI Strategy for Aeronautical Surveillance is presented in Appendix 3.
21

1.3

REQUIREMENTS

Due to the dimension of the geographical area covered a large amount of data has to be assembled and prepared for usage in the scenario. At the same time the level of complexity should be restricted in order to facilitate the analysis process. The more complex the data input the more influences have to be taken into account when drawing conclusions from data output.

18 19 20 21

ADS-C/CPDLC implementation situation of the SAT States/FIRs 2006, Appendix D SITA Highlights, Air Traffic Management (p.9) Kenya Airspace Master Plan (p.40-42) AFI Strategy for Aeronautical Surveillance, Appendix F

REQUIREMENTS

INTRODUCTION

PAGE 18

Figure 4: Actual state of surveillance capabilities12 The airspace structure is the central subject of the analysis and has to be defined in detail. This includes the horizontal sectorization of the airspace above Eastern and Southern Africa as close to reality as possible. As this thesis shall concentrate on the upper airspace one or more lower vertical limits have to be identified. National requirements often restrict airspace usage in certain areas especially for safety and security reasons. It has to be analyzed in how far these restrictions affect the scenario. As stated in Chapter 1.2.3 flights are still operating on ATS-routes although future plans include the implementation of user preferred routings. The aim of the present thesis is to identify the capacity of todays airspace with the current restrictions and so the actual routing system needs to be incorporated. Another part of infrastructure that is needed for the definition of the scenario are airports. A decision has to be made in how much detail they have to be implemented in order to support the analysis of upper airspaces. It is expected that the definition of the working procedures for the different parts of the airspace requires special attention. As stated in Chapter 1.2.4 different surveillance methods are in use. In combination with varying standards in navigation accuracy discrete separation minima have to be assigned to the individual sectors. In order to complete the scenario traffic has to be added. Three considerations need to be done in advance. As numerous types of aircraft use the airspace the performance data as implemented in RAMS Plus 5.0 shall be analyzed regarding its detailedness. A decision on whether this data is satisfactory for the present analysis has to be made. The aim of reviewing the airspace situation in 2020 requires an actual traffic basis that has to be chosen carefully and a prediction on the future development of aircraft movements in the area concerned over the next ten years. Therefore a prediction model has to be developed. In the process of establishing the scenario restrictions may occur that are unforeseen at this stage. They need to be identified and their influence has to be evaluated as far as possible. The last step is the analysis of the output data provided by RAMS Plus 5.0. A decision regarding a suitable strategy has to balance between complexity and information value.

REQUIREMENTS

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 19

2
2.1

METHODOLOGY
RAMS PLUS 5.0

RAMS Plus (Reorganized ATC Mathematical Model Simulator) is a gate-to-gate fast-time simulation tool. This means that all processes regarding air traffic management connected to a flight apart from discrete ground-handling events can be analyzed. Although not relevant for this thesis, a short description of the tools available within RAMS Plus for the simulation of ground traffic shall be given. Therefore airports have to be specified in more detail than present by default in the software package. Default data incorporates the Aerodrome Reference Points of many airports with a clear emphasis on Europe and the United States. There are two possible airport layers that can be used for analysis. The Airport Delay Model does not require any further descriptions but covers ground movements by using mathematical distributions incorporating standard movement times and allocatable variances. The Airport Operational Model in addition to that can be refined by implementing runways in a first step. There are manifold properties that can be defined. Runway occupancy is either configured by time distributions or aircraft performance whichever is seen applicable. Another aspect influencing aircraft performance is the airport elevation. Also lock times before landing and after take-off may be incorporated. Due to different physical requirements connected to aircraft performance a runway usage strategy for multiple runway systems may be defined. Where a highly sophisticated environment is deemed necessary touchdown variances and runway widths which may influence runway crossing times may be assigned. The sequencing of flights using the same runway can be adjusted by using different resolution strategies. In general arrivals are prioritized over departures. Resolution action of the controllers can be influenced by defining runway scheduling options, by identifying alternate runways or by assigning holdstacks to runways. The installation of SIDs and STARs to connect the initial approach fixes with the runways is another feature of the software that allows the detailed description and analysis of surrounding airspaces. Holdstacks are normally part of the arrival routes used for the runway. Flights using SIDs and STARs belonging to a runway can of course be separated by time intervals depending on the capacity of the TMA airspace. Connections between runways and gates are represented by ground links. They are defined between two ground nodes and may include different properties. By defining the physical properties and usage types they can represent normal taxiways, high-speed turn-offs, parking positions or even parallel taxiways. Especially the length influences ground movements as shortest paths are assigned to flights by default. Gates may be used independent of aircraft type or airline or assigned exclusively to airlines or aircraft types. The least sophisticated approach would be to define a single gate for the whole airport which is used by all flights by allowing more than one aircraft at the gate. In opposition to that it is possible to make gate availability dependent on the neighbouring aircraft stands, e.g. a gate may be blocked if the adjacent is used by a Boeing 747 due to insufficient separation values. Gate allocation can be done according to first available gate, closest gate to the runway or discrete gate-flight allocation. Turn-around times can be defined according to the requirements or prerequisites of the simulation. The present thesis does not intend to incorporate airport-related restrictions. This is due to two facts. On the one hand airport capacity is not seen critical at most airports in the geo-

RAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY
22

PAGE 20

graphical area covered . On the other hand the analysis shall be limited to upper airspace traffic and in accordance with that refers to only a manageable number of airports. Any capacity restrictions that might evolve from layout deficiencies are implemented by defining an operational capacity (chapter 2.2.2). All other airports used in the simulation, mainly departure and arrival airports for flights to and from the EAC and SADC countries are not restricted in capacity as flights to and from these airports will enter the analyzed airspace with restricted separation already. Therefore the Airport Delay Model is deemed sufficient for this analysis. Before going into the details of the simulation environment developed for this thesis in chapter 2.2.1 a more general overview of the applications provided by RAMS Plus for simulating airspace shall be given at this point. It is convenient to begin with the establishment of navigation facilities. Depending on the number of navigation aids required one can either draw navigation aids in the radar window and refine specifications via the menu or import them from external files. Navigation aids are defined by name, position and type. Further refinement can be done by denoting whether aircraft shall fly by or fly over the facilities. In addition separation values can be allocated to single facilities. This feature may be used for example in TMAs to simulate capacity restrictions without defining detailed runway configurations. The sector skip functionality may be used where a discrete point for the hand-off of control between two adjacent sectors is required or a sector pierce shall not include a hand-off to the sector crossed. Airways normally connect navigation aids. They are not required to define flight plans but useful to integrate actual flight plans. There are three files used to define airways. The route.dat file includes all navigation aids belonging to an airway in the sequence required. Airway.dat is used to restrict operations on this route to a certain level and/or speed band. For further detailedness or where it is useful to implement it in that way it is possible to use the routesegment.dat file to assign separation values to segments between two navigation aids. This could be used for example on the North Atlantic Track System where the obligation of separation may be delegated to the pilots in the future. The central part of the simulation is formed by the definition of airspaces. Here again it is possible to use the RAMS Plus interface to create centres and sectors. As this tool is not used for the thesis the general composition of the data shall be described bottom-up at this point. Airspaces are geographically identified by corners and boundaries between those. All airspaces outside defined areas are declared as Null airspace where no conflict detection or resolution takes place. A closed polygon of boundaries forms a sector that is monitored by a tactical and a planning controller. The vertical extension has to be defined as well. Adjacent sectors may be combined to control centres that are defined by a schedule representing the operational times. Nevertheless a control centre can consist of only a single sector if no further sectorization is necessary. For both default values are given that have to be adjusted to scenario assumptions. The simulation especially of the tactical controller, which is normally supposed to be using radar, can be refined by using different rulebases. This topic will be addressed later when describing the thesis simulation (chapter 2.2.3.1). Controllers are monitoring flights upon entry into their controller windows. The planning controller is provided with an information window. The tactical controller uses an information and a hand-off window. These windows contain lists of flight. Depending on the scenario the information windows may be but do not necessarily have to be equal for both controllers. The information window can be regarded as the strip holder. Adjustment to the dimension of the information window is done by editing the time values before entry and after exit of the sector. Especially the time before sector pierce is important for the planning controller to be able
22

AICD: Background Paper 16, (p.xi-xii)

RAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 21

to solve conflicts in advance. The hand-off window of the tactical controller is used for radar control mainly and defines the area horizontally and vertically visible to the controller on the screen. A control hand-off time before sector pierce can be defined and is common practice to allow early contact with the pilots and therefore eases conflict resolution for the controller. By default aircraft that pass along a sector boundary possibly affecting separation values in the adjacent airspace will not enter the hand-off window. This should normally not be the case but is helpful for the present analysis as radar coverage in the geographical area selected is not available at all locations and airspace infringements like that remain unidentified.

Figure 5: Controller windows Detection of conflicts and application of resolution manoeuvres is based on adjustable values, multipliers and rulegroups. Depending on the detection geometry model used in the scenario (rectangle, circle, ellipse, diamond) lateral and longitudinal separation values have to or can be set. Longitudinal separation may also be applied in minutes. Wake turbulence separation will be maintained independent of the discrete separation values set. Automatically the greatest applicable value of those defined will be used by the controllers. Vertical separations may differ from each other for planning and tactical controllers. As conflict situations should normally be detected and solved by ATC before infringement of the given separation values, this should be implemented in the simulation. RAMS Plus uses separation multipliers to do so. Multipliers greater than 1 enlarge the level of awareness although it has to be kept in mind that depending on the volume of traffic and the equipment available certain limits to the cognitive skills of controllers are set. For example an approach controller at a busy airport monitors a relatively small area but achieves a high work load. Setting the detection multiplier to 10 might result in an overload situation as the controller would try to solve conflict situations before the entry of these flights into his area of responsibility and therefore significantly increasing the number of flights handled at one time. Beyond that it is possible to set the detection multipliers to a value between 0 and 1. This can be useful in TMA simulations as well. Approaches to or departures from independently operated parallel runways intentionally infringe standard lateral separation as ICAO Annex 14 prescribes a distance in between of 1035 m. Setting the multiplier to 0.2 where a standard separation of 3 NM has to be maintained could prevent the controller from considering this kind of approaches as conflict situations and consequently reducing the workload. RAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 22

Figure 6 : Detection geometry models As a last step traffic has to be implemented. Flights can be assigned categories like Normal, Military, Ambulance, VIP, etc. that do not directly affect the simulation. When defining controller rules priority rules may be assigned to different categories or the separation minima may be adjusted, e.g. state aircraft may not be subject to RVSM regulations and therefore have to be separated by 2000 ft inside upper airspace from other traffic. A database included in the software provides aircraft performance data. Speeds, climb and descend rates are adjustable. Also fuelburn can be analyzed if an economical or ecological study has to be performed. The navigation equipment on board the aircraft has to be defined as well and includes horizontal and vertical separation values. During the simulation always the greatest of all specified values is used in conflict determination and resolution. In order to make use of the surveillance and control capabilities the separation values attached to the navigation equipment should be set to lower values.

Figure 7: Separation priorities RAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 23

As a special feature multi sector planners may be added to scenarios. This position is able to reduce traffic peaks in certain sectors by issuing trajectory modifications. This feature is not used in the current scenario as this concept is not implemented in the geographical area covered and no flow management which is to a certain extent equivalent to that takes place.

2.1.1

DATA INTEGRATION

Instead of integrating data using the menus or the import/export functionality it is possible and especially in case of extensive amounts of data more appropriate to write these directly into to the associated files. Care has to be taken on the implementation to be in compliance with RAMS Plus formats. This approach has also been used for the present analysis. An overview of the data structure is given in Appendix 8.

2.1.2

AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE

Although aircraft performance is expected of subordinate relevance when analysing upper airspace an overview of the implementation of this data in RAMS Plus shall be given. Therefore the Boeing 767-300ER is used as an example and the data is compared with the Eurocontrol BADA23 database. Within RAMS Plus aircraft performance is derived from seven files: acperf.dat includes the aircraft type, performance group, description of the aircraft model, altitude cruise upper level, altitude cruise lower level, altitude cruise optimal level, long range distance, length, wing span and wake turbulence category. acmodelrange.dat includes the base aircraft model, range for the base model, short range aircraft model and associated range, medium range aircraft model and associated range, long range aircraft model and associated range. The aircraft model appropriate for the relevant flight distance is chosen. fuelburn.dat defines fuel burn rates in kilogram per minute for every performance group. These values are adjustable to level bands. For cruise, climb and descent minimum, nominal and maximum values are given. groundperf.dat includes acceleration and deceleration rates for dry and wet runways, lift-off and landing speeds, runway blocking times as well as runway exit speeds for normal and high speed turn-offs for each performance group. lookup.dat defines the flight performance by level bands, cruise, climb and descent speeds and climb and descent rates. performancelowhigh.dat allows a refinement of the data specified in lookup.dat by defining minima and maxima for these values. performancevariance.dat is another method of influencing the basic performance data by percentages of difference allowed in certain level bands.

23

Eurocontrol: BADA

RAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 24

Figure 8: True air speed Performance as provided by BADA includes further information such as speeds in Mach number, aircraft mass and configuration and their influence on performance (e.g. stall speeds). Fuel burn rates for climb and descent are only available in nominal values. RAMS Plus is going beyond that. In general performance data is given for different level bands. Default data in the simulation is limited to five level bands but a refinement can be done if required. Therefore the Eurocontrol data results in smoother curves as can be seen in the figures. Nevertheless this data could be implemented easily into the RAMS Plus software. The data comparison for the Boeing 767-300ER reveals acceptable differences for TAS and ROC in the two curves. Figure 8 shows a large discrepancy in the values up to 3,000 ft. This is due to the fact that data is arranged differently between the two databases. For cruise speed no values are defined in BADA below this level but they are included in the climb and descent speeds. RAMS Plus uses 250 kt in the database but this value is actually not used as it is overruled by the ground performance data including the take-off and landing speeds. The rate of climb implemented in RAMS Plus is a bit more conservative than the nominal value in the BADA database and is located between this curve and the curve representing performance for operations at maximum mass.

Figure 9: Rate of climb Figure 10 reveals that between FL160 and FL290 a much higher rate of descent is expected by the simulation software. This is in correlation with the descent speeds that also differ sigRAMS PLUS 5.0

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 25

nificantly. While RAMS Plus expects the aircraft to decelerate from 455 to 420 kt the BADA models rate of descent is based on a speed reduction from 440 to 360 kt.

Figure 10: Rate of descent Major differences in performance data between RAMS Plus 5.0 and BADA at higher operating levels can only be identified in the rate of descent below FL300. This thesis is concentrating on upper airspace and the effort of implementing the more detailed BADA data for all types of aircraft used in the scenario in order to refine the rate of descent is not seen justified.

2.2

SCENARIO

The main problem to be addressed when creating a scenario is the reliability and comprehensiveness of the data that is used in order to fulfil the requirements that were stated in chapter 1.3.

2.2.1

AIRSPACE

The airspace data for the present thesis is derived from the AFI Region eANP which was implemented after the Eleventh Air Navigation Conference24. Unfortunately the data on which this tool is based is not extractable in toto and therefore all elements defining airspace have to be copied step by step and transferred into RAMS Plus 5.0 format. As previously mentioned many airspace boundaries are still congruent with countries boundaries. Every change in direction results in a new corner and boundary element. In the end around 1,900 data sets defined by latitude and longitude are added to the corner.dat file. The corners are consecutively numbered in the eANP which is helpful when creating sector boundaries as one boundary is formed by two corners. For the boundary.dat file therefore two columns with the corner identifiers of which the second is displaced by one row can be used. After the implementation this has to be verified as corners of adjacent airspaces are always defined twice for each sector and mismatches do occur. Two more files have to be created to completely define a sector. Centreschedule.dat defines the operating hours of the centres implemented in the scenario. It has to be remembered that each centre may consist of more than one sector and the operating hours are therefore applicable to all sectors belonging to that sector. For the present scenario no centre closure is planned. In the last step
24

AN-Conf/11, Recommendation 1/14

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 26

the lateral borders are amended with vertical limitations. This is done in the centresector.dat file bringing together centre, sector, boundary identifier, lower and upper limit. As identified in the requirements a lower level has to be defined and FL245 is chosen. This is the lower limit of most upper airspaces in the geographical area covered although some of the sectors are reaching down to lower levels in order to be adjacent to the TMAs. Another consideration was made regarding the performance data of regional aircraft, especially turboprops, which has improved over the years. Nowadays they are able to operate above FL245 if the flight profile (relating mostly to distance) commends it. Nevertheless the intention to reduce the mixture of traffic operating at different speeds shall be maintained and small aircraft in commercial air traffic to secondary or tertiary airports shall be eliminated. The lower level of upper airspace does also depend on geographical considerations but as no widespread mountain ranges of exceptional height are located in the area no adjustment is seen necessary. This shall not exclude possible considerations regarding a rearrangement of the airspace configuration as a whole for the future. The upper level is set to FL660 which is well above normal air traffic operations and therefore ensures inclusion of all movements. A short description of the airspaces as introduced to the scenario shall be given to facilitate the understanding of analysis results later in the thesis: Angola The Angolan FIR extends over most of the continental area and out to the Mid-Atlantic. Some parts of the airspace are delegated to or from other FIRs, e.g. Kinshasa and Lusaka. Botswana Botswana has not delegated any part of its airspace. The route structure is characterised by the geographical position of the country. All flights arriving from Europe, North America as well as West and Central Africa with destination Johannesburg merge in the Southeast of Botswana especially overhead Gaborone although some disentanglement has been performed in recent years. Burundi The upper airspace of Bujumbura FIR is controlled by Dar es Salaam ACC. Democratic Republic of the Congo The boundaries to the FIRs Brazzaville, Kigali and Bujumbura are following the official borders. The other boundaries are straightened in some areas. Therefore some ATS routes like UA406 and UB527 skip some sector changes and remain under control of one ATC unit. Kenya The Kenyan airspace in opposition to the previously stated usage of the AFI Region eANP database25 is further divided into smaller sectors according to the Kenya Airspace Master Plan (cf. reference 20), Chapter 6.3.3. This is done due to the extreme values in traffic load that are encountered without that sectorization as can be seen in the graphs below (Figure 11 and Figure 12). Comparison with the traffic load in the revised airspace layout shows a considerably smoother distribution. The traffic volume for Dar es Salaam East Sector goes up as the capacity and therefore the throughput of traffic of Kenyan airspace is increased by adding additional controllers. This has to be taken into account in the analysis later on. Nairobi ACC2 is extending down to FL145 is opposition to the general lower limit of FL245 chosen for the thesis.

25

eANP

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 27

Figure 11: Traffic load with single Nairobi control sector

Figure 12: Traffic load with splitted Nairobi control sectors Lesotho The complete airspace of Lesotho is controlled by South Africa. Madagascar The Comoros airspace is part of Antananarivo FIR. For the scenario also the control sector of the island of Runion is included in this FIR. Malawi Lilongwe FIR is comparably small but positioned on an imaginable line between the Middle East, Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Johannesburg.

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY Mauritius

PAGE 28

Mauritius FIR extends from 5S to 45S and longitudinally as far as 70E (half way between Africa and Australia). Mozambique The boundary of Beira FIR proceeds along the Mozambican border. Flights crossing through this airspace are mainly operating between South Africa and Asia. Namibia Windhoek FIR is strongly subject to airspace delegation. The oceanic part is delegated to Johannesburg Oceanic above FL245, the Caprivi Strip is controlled by Gaborone ACC and the southern part of the airspace is rearranged to the needs of Namibia and South Africa. Runion The airspace belongs to Antananarivo FIR but is controlled within a 180 NM radius around St. Dnis by local controllers. As crossing traffic is expected marginal (only flights between South Africa and Southeast Asia) these control positions are omitted in the scenario as their main task is to manage approaches to the French overseas department and traffic coordination for over-flights is supposed to be up to the Madagascan and Mauritian ATC units. Rwanda The upper airspace of Kigali FIR is controlled by Dar es Salaam ACC. Seychelles The Seychelles FIR is crossed by flights from India and the Far East to all countries located south of Kenya. South Africa The South African airspace is divided into three FIRs: Johannesburg, Johannesburg Oceanic and Cape Town and is the most fragmented due to the high amount of domestic traffic. The airport of Johannesburg alone is surrounded by four sectors handling over-flights as well as approaches and departures. For the scenario these sectors are limited to a lower level of FL245 in order to avoid the complexity that is added by this kind of operations. The Oceanic sector also controls the oceanic part of Windhoek FIR above FL245. Swaziland Matsapha TCA extends up to FL460 and is part of Johannesburg FIR. Nevertheless no official airspace delegation regarding control of over-flights to South Africa has been performed yet although flights stay within that airspace for considerably less than 100 NM. Tanzania The Dar es Salaam FIR is divided into two sectors, one covering the continental and oceanic airspace in the east with the merging point overhead the capital and the other one in west that is also responsible for the upper airspaces of Burundi and Rwanda. Uganda The northern and western boundaries of Entebbe FIR with Kinshasa and Khartoum airspaces have been straightened. Zambia FIR boundaries with Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are straightened as mentioned before (cf. DRC). SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY Zimbabwe

PAGE 29

Traffic flows are concentrated at Harare. Equivalent to Malawi this country is situated on the great circle line and expected to be crossed by all flights between South Africa and Nairobi, Addis Ababa and the Middle East. 2.2.1.1 SPECIAL USE AIRSPACE

SUA can significantly reduce airspace capacity by limiting the range of ATC to obtain separation to conventional means such as vertical and time or distance based longitudinal separation in order to not violate these areas. Additionally the assignment of direct routings to meet user requirements regarding flight economy is prevented. The scenario compiled for this thesis does not incorporate SUA. Figure 13 shows all restricted and danger areas affecting the airspace analysed. In the following list areas tangent to ATS routes are described for each FIR: FIR Kinshasa restricted areas reach up to FL240 and therefore do not impose restrictions on the scenario restricted areas are of non-permanent character and are activated by NOTAM FIR Entebbe restricted areas are of non-permanent character and are activated by NOTAM FIR Nairobi HKD23 YATTA (GND-29000MSL) is affecting the routing between Nairobi and the Seychelles. Overflights are expected to operate at higher levels and approaches or departures to and from Nairobi are normally circumnavigating the area according to STAR and SID routings. Therefore no restrictions of relevance to the scenario are imposed. other areas are of non-permanent character and are activated by NOTAM FIR Gaborone FBR20 Francistown reaches up to FL220 and therefore does not impose restrictions on the scenario FIR Antananarivo restricted areas are permitted to cross upon approval by Madagascan government FIR Beira there are many small danger, prohibited and restricted areas located close to the airport of Maputo but no information could be obtained on their status and therefore they are not included in the scenario Note that restrictions affecting departures and arrivals are not within the scope of this thesis as lower airspaces and TMAs are not simulated. The other areas are not affecting the use of ATS routes in their lateral extension. As radar or radar-like surveillance is not yet implemented to a large extent (cf. chapter 1.2.4) in the geo26

26

AIP ASECNA ENR-5-1-01

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 30

graphical area covered vectoring of aircraft will not be performed by ATC and flights therefore follow their prescribed routings. It is also the aim of the research to analyse the capacity of the airspace at normal operations and therefore non-permanent restriction are not incorporated. Also civil-military cooperation is encouraged within APIRG 1727.

Figure 13: Restricted airspaces 2.2.1.2 NAVIGATION DATA

Navigation data such as navigation aids and ATS routes is implemented as available in ARINC 424 standard28. Due to the already tabulated form it is easier to arrange it according to RAMS Plus 5.0 requirements. The lateral extension of the geographical area covered and the need to also implement navigation aids beyond that area to define ATS routes for longhaul traffic necessitated the extension of navigation aid names by the two-letter ICAO country identifier as duplications were found leading to errors in the routing structure. After the implementation into the scenario further faults were identified resulting from wrong sequences of waypoints in the ATS route definition that had to be corrected by hand. Therefore the route.dat file can be used that was also derived from the ARINC database and incorporates the routing details. Rather operational requirements are covered by the airway.dat file defining minimum and maximum usable flight levels and speeds. It was adjusted to match the scenario. This could be further elaborated by the routesegment.dat file putting restrictions on certain parts of ATS routes.

2.2.2

AIRPORT OPERATIONS

Airports, as is described below, are not defined in detail (cf. Chapter 2.1) but assumptions regarding capacity are made and included in the scenario using the airport delay model. In particular this means the allocation of movements per hour to each airport within the geo27 28

APIRG, WP/25 and WP/41 ARINC

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 31

graphical area covered. Not all airports in the geographical area are available in the default data of the software. But as this thesis only surveys international traffic only the major airports are required. Therefore the layout of the runway and taxiway system is analyzed and the Advisory Circular on Airport Capacity and Delay29 is used as basis for a simplified method. Table 1 illustrates the relevant data. Suitable runways are defined as at least 30 m wide and 1,800 m long with a paved surface to accommodate modern jet aircraft. In opposition to ICAO Annex 14, Volume I, Chapter 3.1.12 the distance between parallel runways required for independent operations is not considered but the only application, Johannesburg, is supposed to be beyond the specified lower limits. The column parallel taxiway includes the runway plus the parallel taxiway for calculation reasons and as they both can accommodate at least one aircraft at the same time. The exit factor is assigned according to the FAA Advisory Circular, Figure 343 (cf. Appendix 4) in reference to the number of suitable runway exits. The basic number of movements is also taken from the FAA Advisory Circular for single runways although crossing runways may exist at the airports. This simplification can be made due to the fact that the crossing runways are mostly not suitable for the traffic implemented in the scenario. In general only smaller aircraft affected stronger by crosswinds and not using instrument approach procedures use them but are not taking part in upper airspace traffic and are therefore omitted in the scenario. FAA hourly capacity base 52 52 54 54 28 28 28 parallel TWY com- MOV/hr pensation 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 48 96 49 21 12 25 26

Airport

No. of No. of ICAO parallel suitable parallel Code TWY RWYs RWYs 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2

Exit Factor 0,92 0,92 0,91 0,77 0,83 0,91 0,92

Capetown FACT Johannesburg FAJS Lanseria FALA Nelspruit FANS Maun FBMN Lilongwe FWKI Entebbe HUEN

Table 1: Airport capacity (examples) Three different capacity bases are chosen. Airports that have a significant number of intercontinental traffic have a slightly lower capacity base (52) than airports with a predominating regional traffic due to the higher mix index in accordance with the larger aircraft operating on these routes. That index also influences the exit factor which differs for similar airport layouts. For all airports a balanced percentage of arrivals (50:50) is assumed. The column parallel TWY compensation compensates for the additional counting of the runway in the column parallel TWY. To consider the existence or absence of ATS surveillance
29

FAA, Advisory Circular 150/5060-5

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 32

systems Chapter 4-3 of the FAA Advisory Circular determines the hourly capacity in the absence of radar coverage for different runway configurations. The layout of the taxiway system is not incorporated in these figures and calculated according to Figure 3-43. Approaches without radar coverage have a capacity of approximately 28 movements per hour as determined from Figure 4-15 (cf. Appendix 5). As the approach procedures are not known in detail for all airports the value for straight-in approaches is used. This value cannot be reached in reality as runways are often blocked for backtracking. ICAO Doc 4444, Chapter 6.5.6.2.2 (interval between successive approaches) states: In determining the time interval or longitudinal distance to be applied between successive approaching aircraft, the relative speeds between succeeding aircraft, the distance from the specified point to the runway, the need to apply wake turbulence separation, runway occupancy times, the prevailing meteorological conditions as well as any condition which may affect runway occupancy times shall be considered. In order to validate the number of movements calculated in the table in Appendix 6 the following considerations are done. If an average approach speed of 150 kt is assumed and the spacing between successive approaches shall not be less than the minimum separation of 5 NM for radar environments a time interval of 2 minutes has to be applied. As backtracking is required in most cases an additional minute for the turnaround of the aircraft and two minutes for the backtracking itself and the runway vacation are added. To make maximum use of the available capacity a departing aircraft should line-up as soon as the arriving aircraft has passed the runway entry point of the departing aircraft. Adding another 2 minutes for the take-off two movements can be handled in 7 minutes at airports with insufficient access of taxiways. There is no safety margin considered yet and therefore one more minute is added. This results in two movements per eight minute interval or 15 movements per hour for alternating approaches and departures or less in case of successive approaches. This is consistent with the results of the calculation and is used for the simulation.

2.2.3
2.2.3.1

CONTROLLERS
RULEBASE DEFINITION

In order to determine the workload of the controllers the sectorization of the airspace and the separation minima according to the surveillance capabilities have to be defined. As airspace definition has been described in chapter 2.2.1 concentration here will be on the working procedures. Separation minima The separation minima are defined on the basis of data made available at the Third Meeting of the APIRG Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Sub-Group in Nairobi, Kenya, 26-30 April 2010 (cf. reference 17). The longitudinal separation minimum is set to 10 minutes and RVSM can be applied in all airspaces covered in the scenario. In all non-radar environments the separation values are based on the procedures standardized by ICAO Doc 4444 Procedures for Air Navigation Services Air Traffic Management and Doc 9613 Manual on Required Navigation Performance. The lateral separation is defined in compliance with the RNP values specified for the area of routing and is in most cases ensured by the distance between different ATS routes. Use of the lateral separation valSCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 33

ues can be made by the tactical controller when clearing an aircraft to a parallel offset track in order to climb through a flight level presently blocked by another aircraft. Areas covered by radar may use lower separation minima. The airspace of the Republic of South Africa is covered by radar nearly in full. The Air Traffic Services Standards and Procedures Manual30 as published by the South African Civil Aviation Authority at 22 July 2009 defines the minimum radar separation between identified radar targets as 5 NM (ib.: Section 6, Chapter 6, 1.1). For planning controllers separation minima are specified as 20 NM lateral according to RNP provisions and 20 NM longitudinal also in accordance with the Air Traffic Services Standards and Procedures Manual (ib.: Section 6, Chapter4, 5.7.1). The status of the radar systems installed in Zimbabwe is unclear. As safety is the overall priority in ATC the higher values for a non-radar environment are used. The Namibian airspace is monitored by a combination of two radar antennas installed at the international airport of Windhoek and a wide area multilateration system31 will be implemented soon. The separation minima are not available. But as position accuracy of the multilateration system is presented as being 150 m or better the longitudinal and lateral separation minima are also adjusted to 5 NM32. This decision can be emphasized by the better system performance of multilateration systems in comparison to primary and secondary radar surveillance systems (ref. additional reading, Wide Area Multilateration, Report on EATMP TRS 131/04). The system capabilities and relating separation minima of Kenyas surveillance radars is unknown but is set to 20 NM for the continental part in order to acknowledge the radar coverage as described in the Kenya Airspace Master Plan33. All specifications defining a working position are included in the controller.dat file. Beyond the entry and exit distributions for the information and hand-off windows as described in chapter 2.1 and the separation minima applicable for the sectors the scope of actions that may be used is added. Rulegroups for controllers The resolution manoeuvres that can be applied by the different controllers (planning, tactical radar and tactical non-radar) are defined separately. The rulesystem incorporates controller rules, the rulebase manager and zone rules. For the given scenario solely the controller rules have to be adjusted as the rulebase manager influences all rules defined in general and zone rules are used to configure multi-use airspace etc. which is not included in the present scenario. Planning rules and tactical rules are predefined. The comparably long names of the rules simplify the understanding of the realted action performed by the controller. As the tactical rules are based on the assumption of a radar environment an additional rulegroup TacticalNonRadarRules has to be implemented. This rulegroup omits manoeuvres that are in general carried out only with assistance of a situation display. For example Heading_Further_Behind_Crossing_Conflict is only applicable if the controller has a situation display allowing precise determination of separation and heading instructions. The comparison between the rulegroups for tactical controllers with and without radar is shown in Table 2.

30 31 32 33

SACAA, ATCIs AZ Namibia, 12 March 2010 SRA Company resentation Kenya Airspace Master Plan, (p.27-30)

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY
RULEGROUP Identify_Tactical _Action_for_a_Candidate
Level_Off_Lower_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict Level_Off_Upper_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict Reduce_Speed _of_Flight_Behind_in_Track_No_WakeTurbulance LevelOff_Descent_Behind_in_Track_With_WakeTurbulance LevelOff_Climb_Behind_in_Track_With_WakeTurbulance Heading_to_Climb_Opposing_Descent Heading_to_Climb_going_to_Higher_FL_than_Other Heading_to_Climb_going_to_same_level_Short_Term_conflict Heading_Further_Behind_Crossing_Conflict Level_Off_Climb_that_will_Descend_again_soon Heading_parallel_to_other_for_short_term_narrow_angle_conflict Consider_Descending_Cruise_about_to_Descend Consider_Descending_high_cruise_nearer_to_airport Hold_Flight_On_Ground Reduce_Speed_Of_Inbound_Flight Monitor_Conflict_with_No_Crossover_and_Very_Short_Duration Increase_Speed_of_Flight_InFront ParallelOffsetForCruiseConflictEndingWithDiverge Consider_Climbing_Opposite_Cruise_with_LongWay_to_go Consider_Climbing_InTrack_Cruise_with_LongWay_to_go Delay_Descent_For_HighCruise_shorttermConflict Increase_Speed_of_Flight_InFront

PAGE 34
RULEGROUP Identify_Tactical_Non_Radar _Action_for_a_Candidate
Level_Off_Lower_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict Level_Off_Upper_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict Reduce_Speed _of_Flight_Behind_in_Track_No_WakeTurbulance LevelOff_Descent_Behind_in_Track_With_WakeTurbulance LevelOff_Climb_Behind_in_Track_With_WakeTurbulance

Level_Off_Climb_that_will_Descend_again_soon Heading_parallel_to_other_for_short_term_narrow_angle_conflict Consider_Descending_Cruise_about_to_Descend Consider_Descending_high_cruise_nearer_to_airport Hold_Flight_On_Ground Reduce_Speed_Of_Inbound_Flight

ParallelOffsetForCruiseConflictEndingWithDiverge Consider_Climbing_Opposite_Cruise_with_LongWay_to_go Consider_Climbing_InTrack_Cruise_with_LongWay_to_go Delay_Descent_For_HighCruise_shorttermConflict

Table 2: Tactical controller rulegroups The non-radar equipped sectors are working according to the conventional separation methods and minima based on time and distance as specified in ICAO Doc 4444 Procedures for Air Navigation Services Air Traffic Management, Chapter 5. In addition to these standard procedures two resolution rules are permitted to controllers based on the advanced flight guidance equipment installed on board modern aircraft. Heading_parallel_to_other_for _short_term_narrow_angle_conflict is a feasible procedure to climb or descent one aircraft through a level blocked by other traffic. ACAS systems as described in ICAO Annex 10, Volume IV, provide a good situational awareness for the pilots and allow an offset on a parallel heading without risking an infringement of safety. A similar procedure is the ParallelOffsetForCruiseConflictEndingWithDiverge. In this case the aircraft are not directed onto parallel headings but on parallel tracks. Modern flight management systems allow an offset to the planned route and an automatic alignment to the original track when clear of traffic. The different rules are composed of conditions and actions. Using prefixes like GIVEN, AND or NOT, conditions under which a certain manoeuvre may be applied can be defined. An extensive list of relations like Current Altitude, Distance from Airport, Relative Position etc. specifies these prerequisites. To illustrate the composition of controller rules an example is given:

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY Level_Off_Lower_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict CONDITIONS GIVEN Candidate (conflict, flight_x, flight_y) NOT ConflictAngle (conflict, Parallel_Opposite) NOT ConflictAngle (conflict, Parallel_Same) CurrentAttitude (flight_x, AttitudeClimb) NOT ConflictAttitude (conflict, flight_y, AttitudeDescent) GT (CurrentAltitude (flight_y), CurrentAltitude (flight_x)) ACTIONS FirstChoice (conflict, flight_x, TempFlightLevelBelow)

PAGE 35

In a first step the conflicting aircraft (flight_x and flight_y) are identified according to the separation standards specified. As this resolution rule is developed to solve conflicts between aircraft on crossing tracks the angle of conflict must not be the same or opposite. The conflict angles can be adjusted. By default same and parallel include angles of 10 (cf. Figure 15) represented by the red area in Figure 14. In case flight_x is the aircraft intending to climb through the level of flight_y the attitude will be climb (passing FL210 for higher in this example). To apply this manoeuvre flight_y must not be in a descent. If this would be the case another rule would have to be applied. The prefix GT returns TRUE if the first value in the brackets is greater than the second and FALSE otherwise. As in the given example flight_y is restricting the climb of flight_x as it is operating at FL250 and therefore TRUE is returned. The action performed by the controller will now be to level of flight_x below the level blocked by flight_y until sufficient separation is provided.

Figure 14: Controller rule Level_Off_Lower_Flight_In_Crossing_Conflict SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY 2.2.3.2 DETECTION GEOMETRY MODELS

PAGE 36

Different geometry models are in use in RAMS Plus. The detection of a conflict may be done by using an ellipse or diamond defined by the longitudinal and lateral separation minima. As this is not common use these two models are not used for the present scenario. For the non-radar equipped controllers the rectangle model is applied as they are on the one hand unable to identify the penetration of a circular protection zone with a specified radius around an aircraft and on the other hand the separation minima in longitude and latitude are different.

Figure 15: Geometric conflict classification diagram Radar quipped sectors might use a circular model for tactical control but this option is omitted. As separation is equal in all directions a radius could be drawn around each aircraft. Even so the rectangle model is applied in this case forming a square as this makes the scenario input data less complex and controllers are normally not working towards reaching the minimum safety. In case approach and departure airspaces would be simulated as well this simplification would not be applicable as aircraft are not following prescribed routes as strict as in en-route situations. In addition the sequencing towards final approach requires especially in peak hours to make maximum use of the available airspace and therefore of minimum separation. As this feature can only be defined globally when starting a simulation run the option to define different detection geometry models for different controllers is not given.

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY 2.2.3.3 DETECTION MULTIPLIERS

PAGE 37

For each controller it is possible to define specific detection multipliers in the dynamicdetection.dat file. These values define the critical separation for conflict identification. If set to the default value 1 a conflict is detected when the predefined separation values are infringed. For example two aircraft at same level on opposing tracks in a radar controlled sector will be considered in conflict by the tactical controller first when one aircraft enters the 5 NM separation minimum of the other. In this case it is nearly impossible to take appropriate action. The detection multipliers increase the detection range. For radar control positions the values are set to 5. The controllers are now scanning at a radius of 25 NM and 5,000 ft around every aircraft for possible conflicting traffic. For nonradar control positions (tactical and planning) the values in longitude, latitude and altitude differ for varying conflict positions. Conflicts between aircraft on the same track or converging at small angle will be detected 20 min ahead as the multiplier is set to 2 for longitudinal separation (10 min controller separation defined) but no lateral expansion (50 NM controller separation defined) of the detection range is implemented as aircraft on a parallel ATS route sufficiently separated according to RNP standards would unnecessarily be considered a conflict. Conflicts resulting from climb versus cruise situations are subject to resolution 3,000 ft before reaching the blocked level (detection multiplier set to 3 in combination with RVSM). Aircraft on crossing tracks are considered to be in possible conflict at twice the separation values in all directions (20 min longitudinal and 100 NM lateral).

2.2.4

TRAFFIC

The traffic is based on 2010 figures and only includes scheduled traffic although nonscheduled flights especially in the cargo sector may be performed to a certain extent. As for the reference day around 800 flights are identified a number of 10 to 20 unscheduled aircraft operations is seen of minor influence on the workload of controllers. Beyond that nonscheduled flights are often operated due to missing scheduled connections and for that reason rarely affect highly frequented routes and sectors. Therefore they may be ignored in a thesis aiming to identify congested and overcrowded airspaces. 2.2.4.1 TRAFFIC DATA

Before it is possible to analyse the traffic situation and the resulting airspace capacity in the year 2020 it is inevitable to define a traffic basis to have a reliable and reasonable starting point. As a 24 hour period shall be used a day with high traffic volume needs to be identified. This does not necessarily have to be the maximum peak experienced as this would lead to miscalculations. For example using July 12th 2010, the day after the FIFA World Cup final in South Africa would mark a peak that is way beyond normal traffic and would provide a wrong or at least questionable basis for the scenario regarding volume and direction of traffic. The relevant ANSPs in the geographical area covered do not publish the day with the highest workload for each year as well as monthly statistics so that determination of the required data has to be performed via other sources. With the aim to reach the highest possible comparability the ICAO database34 is used to analyze the traffic volumes of airports and airlines. Again deficiencies in reporting practices by the entities concerned make assumptions and unsteadinesses inevitable. First of all the airport traffic shall be examined. The integration of domestic air traffic did not prove useful for the identification process. Although domestic flights in larger countries like South Africa do penetrate the upper airspace that is part of this thesis, there are little vari-

34

ICAOData

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 38

ances in schedule over the year. All-cargo flights are not operating scheduled at significant numbers and are therefore not included in the identification process as well. Non-scheduled flights, tourist charter operations as well as ad-hoc cargo requests, depend largely upon unpredictable and non-influenceable circumstances. The global economic downturn following the financial crisis in 2008 demonstrated the vulnerability of the airfreight market resulting in considerable losses. Exchange rates do not just affect the cost-benefit-analyses of cargo handling agents but also private persons in their decision to travel or not. Especially the choice of destination when planning vacations tends to be sensitive to prices. Nevertheless non-scheduled traffic represents between 10% (southern hemisphere winter) and 15% (southern hemisphere summer) of total traffic. The graph in Figure 16 shows how inconsistent data for 2004 and 2009 is and therefore stress is laid on international scheduled flights.

Figure 16: Number of international non-scheduled flights Data for 2004 and 2009 is chosen for reasons of availability and comparability. The airports included are Beira and Maputo in Mozambique, Gillot (St. Dnis) on the French island of Runion, Plaisance on the Seychelles, Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg in South Africa, the Ugandan capital Entebbe and the international airport of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia which is located outside the geographical area analyzed but acts as a major hub for flights to and from Eastern and Southern Africa. A significant drawback is the lack of data for the airports in Nairobi, Mombasa, Luanda and Dar es Salaam. For those airports no or only annual data is available. Figure 17 shows the distribution of aircraft departures for the years 2004 and 2009 and the arithmetic mean. The trend lines until May for both years proceed similarly. After overcoming the economic crisis in mid 2009 traffic rises considerably. The highest number of aircraft departures is reached in October.

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 39

Figure 17: Number of international scheduled flights To verify that analysis the traffic figures of airlines according to aircraft departures is used. As sufficient data is not available for 2009 only 2004 can be taken into account. Ethiopian Airlines is included this time to ensure consistency with the inclusion of Addis Ababa Airport above. Kenya Airways does not provide monthly data for its operations and is therefore missing. Apart from South African Airways all other airlines (Air Botswana, Air Tanzania, Comair, LAM and SA Airlink) are predominantly operating regional routes and support the validity of traffic figures within the area of the scenario. In accordance to the airport traffic examined only international scheduled departures are considered. The result is shown in Figure 18. It is to be noted that, although the two major intercontinental carriers most dynamic month is December, the overall peak is reached in October. This may originate from a demand in intercontinental as well as regional holiday travel between Christmas and New Years Day. As October has been identified as the month with the highest probability, taking into consideration the deficiencies in the provision of statistical data, of generating major challenge to the ATC system, a particular day has to be chosen. That will be done by evaluating the Country Annex provided by the AICD which provides data regarding departing and arriving seats per hour for November 2007. The two major hubs in the area of interest are chosen as reference for the whole region as they are expected to accommodate not only the most regional but also the most intercontinental traffic. The Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi, Kenya, serves as the base for Kenya Airways and handled 5.25 million passengers and nearly 83,000 movements in FY 2009/201036 whereas at South African Airways hub in Johannesburg 17.6 million passengers arrived and departed during the same period on 202,500 flights37. It has to be kept in mind that these statistics are based on number of seats and not movements. Therefore intercontinental flights are over weighted against regional or domestic flights as long range aircraft are generally designed to provide a higher seating capacity. This imbalance is deemed acceptable in present case as long range traffic is of major interest for this thesis and no other information is available.
35

35 36 37

AICD, Country Annex KAA, Airport Statistics ACSA, Passenger and Aircraft Statistics

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 40

Figure 18: Number of international scheduled flights of selected airlines

Figure 19: Departing and arriving seats per hour at O.R. Tambo International Airport

38

The traffic distribution at Johannesburg airport is comparatively balanced. Only one peak per day between 10 and 11 a.m. is visible for every day of the week. A qualitative analysis of the diagram in the Figure 19 shows that the maximum capacities are offered on Friday and Sunday. This observation is also consistent with the considerations made above. Intercontinental trips, being for private or business reasons, in general are planned to last longer than one or two days. Business travellers will rather stay from Sundays to Fridays to attend meetings and appointments during the week. Tourists in opposition to that might want to make maximum use of their vacation and arrive on Fridays and return on Sundays.

38

AICD, Country Annex, (p.277)

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 41

Figure 20: Departing and arriving seats per hour at Jomo Kenyatta Intl. Airport

39

Comparing traffic figures for these two days of the week at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport shows a slightly higher traffic volume on Sunday. When looking at traffic distribution at smaller airports in the region that preferably concentrate on regional air traffic, like Kigali and Entebbe, the selection of Sunday as the day providing a suitable basis for the analysis is fostered. The traffic at 31 October 2010 is integrated into the simulation as made available at flightstats.com and departure times are converted to UTC. Again this data is not extractable in whole but has to be copied step by step and rearranged to fulfil the data requirements of RAMS Plus 5.0. As traffic data need to be written into different files within the scenario this time the import tool provided by the software is used. All relevant information (departure time, flight number, departure and destination aerodrome, aircraft type, requested flight level, routing, etc.) is combined in the trafficexchange.dat file and the import function automatically distributes the information to the target files. A significant drawback in this process was the lack of a route finding algorithm. All routes had to be implemented by hand based on assumption regarding the shortest distance. As mentioned at the beginning of this chapter this had to be done for approximately 800 flights. 2.2.4.2 TRAFFIC GROWTH

As it is the main aim of this thesis to analyse the situation of the upper airspace of the SADC and EAC countries in 2020 a prediction of traffic has to be performed. There are different approaches in use and different outcomes. The main challenge is normally to create a reliable database and to correctly identify the manifold influences on demand and offer. Another difficulty appears as predictions are in general focussing on air traffic economics and therefore forecast changes in RPK or passengers transported. There is a relation between these figures and the number of aircraft movements and the challenge is to establish a justifiable factorization to correspond to the requirements of this thesis. Therefore the methodology of the Long-Term Forecast as produced by Eurocontrol40 is used as a guideline. Aiming to proof the choice of a more sophisticated approach an increase in traffic at an equal growth rate as predicted by Boeings Current Market Outlook 2009-2028 (cf. reference 6) for all traffic flows is assumed and the results of the simulation are presented in Figure 21
39 40

AICD, Country Annex, (p.153) LTF 2010

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 42

(red line). Without going into detailed analysis of these results the insufficiency of this approach can easily be identified. The graph shows an increase in imbalances in traffic distribution over the simulation period creating significant peaks at 15:30, 17:30 and 20:30. This is something complicated to handle for ATC. On the one hand it is a human factor problem by forcing the controllers to raise attention rapidly and for a short time (high vigilance required). On the other hand it necessitates the ANSPs to provide systems and procedures able to manage these traffic peaks. This is economically questionable. For example an advanced flight data management system is acquired in order to handle 450 flights per hour as required by the figures in the graph. Supposing it is a reasonable approach to declare it a profitable investment when utilized to 70% of its capacity or more this would be the case for only 9 out of 24 hours. This does not even take into account the differing situations in the variety sectors. Therefore it will not be considered an option.

Figure 21: Comparison of different growth rates As air traffic in Africa differs significantly from Europe also the prediction method used by Eurocontrol has to be adjusted. For example the influence of a high-speed train network is not existent in Africa. Another reason is the lack of historic data that is often extrapolated for future scenarios. As basic data the World Economic Outlook as of October 201041 provided by the International Monetary Fund is chosen. It provides data for all countries covered by this thesis and the methodology used is identical for all numbers.

41

IMF, WEO April 2010

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 43

One of the main factors driving air traffic is the GDP. In how far this element influences air traffic differs between regions and countries. Countries with a strong position in export markets rely more on international air traffic than countries producing goods solely for their own requirements. Countries concentrating on the development of the tertiary sector generate more business travel. Typical vacation destinations experience a lot of income traffic that is additionally limited to certain seasons and even one or two days of the week. The progression of traffic is related to the overall GDP development as an increase in business activities results in an increased demand for travel. But as business travel is not forming the sole driver to air traffic and with growing income of the people personal travel becomes more and more important this development requires consideration as well. This is also a difference to the Eurocontrol method as the income of European households is much higher than in the geographical area covered and therefore the effect of Low Cost Carriers may be less pronounced. The GDP per capita identifies the productivity of the people and is directly related to the state of wealth of the households. A restricting factor in most of the countries is inflation as the mean value is not expected to fall below 5% within the forecast period. A comparison with the evolution of the GDP per capita shows a constraining effect.

Figure 22: Comparison of GDP per capita growth versus Inflation Discrete numbers of GDP and GDP per capita differ significantly from each other within the region. Even the equalized data according to PPP measurement is not of sufficient explanatory power as prices for air travel only form a small part of the International Comparison Program. In fact it is just 1 of 222 items accounted for in the GDP42. In recognition of this fact only the changes over the forecasted years are used. First the arithmetic mean of the GDP change for the predicted timeframe 2011-2015 as available in the World Economic outlook data, the GDP per capita change and the forecasted inflation rate is calculated. In a second step the values are integrated in to one representing the demand for passenger air transport. This is done by adding the GDP per capita increase re-

42

Worldbank, ICP Methodological Handbook

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 44

duced by the inflation influence (overweighting the first value) to the overall GDP growth. As shown in the formula below. The mean growth factor is 7%.

Another influence incorporated by Eurocontrols forecast is the business strategy of airlines. Especially the mean seats per aircraft may have an effect on the number of movements. For example South African Airways announced to introduce wide body aircraft on the Johannesburg-Nairobi route in March 201143 which offers more seats without increasing the number of movements. The Airbus Global Market Forecast 2009-2028 (cf. reference 7) predicts a 1,5 times stronger growth in the twin aisle fleets of African airlines than in the single aisle market. Therefore for the larger economies in the geographical area covered (larger GDP than half of the mean value of the region) some routes are expected to be served by larger aircraft in the prediction period and the growth rate is reduced by 0.15% which is one tenth of the value of the expected change in available seats per movement. This low reduction is presumed due to the fact that stronger growth rates on intercontinental flights are predicted and most of the twin aisle segment increase will be used on these long haul routes. With this reduction applied the mean increase in air traffic is now predicted at 6.9%. This shall be validated by the data provided in the Airbus Global Market Forecast. Intra SubSaharan air traffic is assumed there to increase by 6.1%. The traffic between Sub-Saharan States and South Africa is expected to grow at 8.2%. The calculated growth rate is situated in the middle of these two figures although it may be a little bit high. It has to be taken into account that the negative effect of increasing oil prices are not evaluated as the commodity markets are seen to viable to be predicted and the influence of riding oil production in SubSaharan countries is hard to predict. On the other hand the market entrance of Low Cost Carriers which normally boosts traffic numbers is also omitted. This figure is representing the expected growth in RPK and therefore an adjustment to the number of movements has to be done. Two different factors for this adjustment are used for domestic and regional predictions. Some of the countries in the geographical area covered are very small like Swaziland or Burundi. Others have a considerable extension but are little populated like Namibia or Angola. Only a few have more than one metropolitan area like South Africa or Kenya. In countries belonging to the first two categories either no domestic air traffic is offered or it is performed with small propeller aircraft and therefore not affecting upper airspace. Countries in the latter category do have significant domestic air traffic but that is concentrated on a few routes. The connection between Johannesburg and Cape Town belongs to the most frequented air routes in the world with about 100 flights per day. At a lower level (more than 30 flights per day) the route between Nairobi and Mombasa is of importance for national business. Comparison of predictions for RPK and movement growth between the Airbus Global Market Forecast and the Eurocontrol Long-Term Forecast identifies a factor of approximately 0.6 for air traffic movement growth in smaller regions. Therefore this factor is use for domestic growth. With a growing cooperation between businesses and companies in the region the demand for air travel between the countries is likely to grow stronger. Another supporting factor is the insufficient railway and road infrastructure. In combination with the long distances that have to be bridged air traffic is the only suitable means of transport. Also a further political and economic integration of the states including customs and free trade agreements will increase demand for air transport connections. That is also an important factor in Eurocontrols fore43

African Aviation News, 2 March 2011

SCENARIO

METHODOLOGY

PAGE 45

cast method. Again the Airbus Global Market Forecast and the Long-Term Forecast are compared and for larger regions or areas of major traffic flow a factor between movements and RPK of 0.6 to 0.9 can be identified. For the scenario the factor 0.8 is chosen as the main interest is to identify capacity restrains. If the predicted values of traffic are reached later in reality this does not change the overall analysis.

Figure 23: Movement growth calculation per country As the growth rates vary between the countries the predicted rate between two of them is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the respective numbers for each country in order to identify the potential growth in relation to the economic development. The resulting increase in traffic is marked by the green line in Figure 21 and is showing considerably less extremities than the less sophisticated approach used for the red line. The result of the regional growth prediction is shown in Appendix 9. Although for all combinations (domestic and regional) growth rates are defined and implemented to the scenario only flights on existing routes are added. If only one airport in a country is in use no domestic traffic is performed and no new routes are made available. Inter African traffic beyond Sub-Saharan Africa is grown at 5.7% as stated in the Boeing Current Market Outlook 2010. For intercontinental flights the growth rates according to the Boeing Current Market Outlook 201044 are used as well. In detail flights to the Americas are predicted to increase by 7.3% per year. Traffic towards Asia is growing a little stronger at 9.2% whereas connections with the Middle East are predominantly relying on the route development of the airlines from the Gulf States and should rise by 6.5%. The historically originated traffic flows to and from Europe will grow at 4.6% as this market is the most developed of the mentioned. These values are as well adjusted with the preliminary mentioned factor of 0.8.

44

Boeing: Current Market Outlook 2010-2029

SCENARIO

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 46

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

After implementing the current ATC system capabilities and current traffic the impact of traffic growth until 2020 is analyzed. Therefore the situation in 2010 is looked at to recognize areas of special interest in advance. As traffic is distributed unbalanced over the day and only the peak traffic loads are of interest for the identification of bottlenecks times with low traffic volumes can be ignored. They even have to be ignored when calculating averages as can be identified in the figure below. If a threshold of ten flights per hour entering a sector is chosen in order to represent a workload of significance for the controllers the timeframe to be analyzed is reduced to half of the simulation period. This threshold leaves six minutes time per flight for the controllers to perform standard procedures (establish radio/radar contact, issue climb/descent clearance according to flightplan, hand-off to next sector) or handle special requests and solve conflict situations. Depending on the airspace volume and the characteristics of the traffic flow this can result in capacity restrictions or not. A sector mainly handling overflights on parallel routes is able handle a much higher throughput than a sector affected by traffic to and from an airport. Actually not all sectors in the geographical area covered reach that threshold during the simulation time. Nevertheless a clear distinction between times of high and low traffic volumes can be made. Figure 24 shows the traffic distribution over the simulation period and applying the above mentioned threshold the timeframe between 10:00 and 21:00 is considered to be of interest. As traffic volume is grown over a period of ten years and can expected to be spread over a slightly wider timeframe the analysis period is extended to 08:00 to 23:00. As noted above this also has an influence on mean values. This is indicated by the two dotted lines representing the arithmetic average of sector entries of the busiest sectors (at and above 70%quantil) for the different analysis periods.

Figure 24: Traffic distribution by sector entries The analysis itself is done by using the ATM Analyser tool provided by ISA Software in combination with RAMS Plus. It compiles the data generated during the simulation and presents it in tables. Some data aggregations are even exported into Excel files. Principally all events that take place during a simulation can be excerpted and analyzed. Due to the large quantity SCENARIO

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 47

of data it is not always easy to access the relevant data especially if required in particular combination. Basically the data is sorted by flights, sectors, routes, conflicts, taskload and special reports. Different kinds of reports are used in this thesis but it did not prove reasonable to concentrate on just a few to draw conclusions for the very different situations. Thus the presentation of a list of reports is omitted here. Some general information regarding the analysis has to be given in advance. As mentioned above only the timeframe between 08:00 and 23:00 is subject to investigation. If deemed useful even smaller intervals are examined. This may be the case for peak hours. As often as possible sliding hours are used as this data is more precise and representing reality better than fixed time periods. Peaks are identified according to limits for taskload used by Eurocontrol in different studies and capacity assessments45: Severe peak hour Heavy peak loading in excess of 70% in excess of 55%.

3.1

RESTRICTIONS

The first analysis results in some deteriorating numbers. Figure 25 shows that some sectors are already working beyond their capacity. This would lead to significant delays in the whole system. This situation is even increased for the simulation of 2020 traffic numbers.

Figure 25: Sectors excessing workload of 55% 2010 Apparently there are mistakes and arguable occurrences in the simulation that have to be identified and are outlined below before further results can assessed. The highest workloads are identified for South African airspace especially in the sectors affected by traffic between Cape Town and Johannesburg. The controller working beyond 100% in Figure 25 is the Cape Town West planning position.
45

Eurocontrol: CEATS, (p.12)

RESTRICTIONS

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 48

Other sectors with significant workload are Dar es Salaam East and Nairobi ACC1 and ACC2. In all three cases it is the planning controller that is encountering the highest workload. At this point it has to be remembered that the sectorization of Kenyan airspace is already changed according to the prospects made in the Kenyan Airspace Master Plan. South African sectors are reduced in the vertical dimension to a lower limit of FL245. In reality they extend down to the upper limits of the TMAs (FL105 and FL145). As excessive workloads occur only at planning controller positions the rulebase definition for these may be false. Although this may be the case it is seen more likely that procedures are used in reality especially in radar controlled airspaces that cannot be implemented into the scenario. Coordination that takes place between tactical controllers by point-out procedures and approval requests on separation situations manageable by tactical but not in compliance with planning rules is not realizable with the software and is therefore influencing analysis results. The South African airspace is subject to flow management procedures. This system could be implemented to a certain degree by using the MSP tool included in RAMS Plus. As ATFM is a very complex topic and the exact measures taken by the relevant unit are not known the results to be evaluated would be doubtful. The reduction of the analyzed airspace to FL245 and above with the only external restrictions resulting from defined airport capacities also omits SIDs and STARs. This leads to the situation that departures from airports enter the ATS route system at any point as soon as climbing trough FL245 and no separation is applied to those flights due to inexistent ATC units. On ATS routes with dense traffic like Cape Town Johannesburg and Nairobi Mombasa special procedures might be in use to handle higher traffic volumes than possible with standard procedures. For example a parallel offset procedure in order to separate traffic laterally with less interference between aircraft in climb, cruise and descent can be common practice without being laid down in official procedures.

Figure 26: Sectors excessing workload of 55% 2020 RESTRICTIONS

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 49

For these reasons the approach to the analysis has to be redefined. As the South African ANSP is the most progressive company in the geographical area covered in terms of procedures and usage of advanced technologies it is regarded to be able to handle the challenges emerging from traffic growth and even to assist other states covered in the analysis in upgrading their systems technically and operationally. Therefore the analysis will concentrate on the airspaces apart from South Africa.

3.2

TRAFFIC FLOW

Prior to detailed analysis the main traffic flows shall be illustrated as it can be expected that restrictions will be located along these. Figure 27 shows a screenshot of the simulation at around 18:00. This picture is exemplary for all situations with high traffic load. Approximately 80% of the traffic (squares representing single flights) can be enclosed by a shape formed like a banana. Thus it is expected that the airspaces in the east and south of the continent are experiencing exhausted capacity first. Traffic growth is applied to all connexions but it is not likely that the basic situation will change dramatically over the next years as the prediction figures show.

Figure 27: Main traffic flows (RAMS screenshot)

TRAFFIC FLOW

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 50

3.3

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

In a first step todays situation is analyzed. Therefore the workload of sectors separately for planning and tactical controllers is utilized to identify points of interest. In accordance with the previously mentioned Eurocontrol study the limit for peak loading is set to 55%. If this limit is applied and all sectors not reaching this value are left out at the moment five planning controller positions remain to be subject to detailed analysis.

3.3.1

PLANNING CONTROLLERS

Figure 28: Taskload of planning controllers 2010 Dar es Salaam East This position reaches the highest workload of all sectors. The value of 91.4% implies in line with the measuring method of RAMS Plus that the controller is occupied with different tasks for 55 minutes of the hour starting at 18:00. If this graph is set into relation to the sector entries conformity can be identified. As planning controllers are monitoring the traffic situation that has to be expected in the sector up to 20 minutes ahead it is of no surprise that the actual traffic peak is reached short time after the 60 minute timeframe with the maximum workload of the controller starts. This is emphasized when looking at the tasks performed by the controller during this period. Summing up the workload for each task except PlanningConflictSearch this does not even add to the value of this single task (cf. Figure 29). What can be concluded is that although there is a high traffic load not many possible conflict situations occurred. This was reviewed using the simulation and the respective timeframe showed many northbound overflights already separated by previous sectors and a mentionable number of departures from Dar es Salaam airport also separated by sufficient intervals between take-off times. The ATS route structure with tracks merging overhead Dar es Salaam and Nairobi requires continuous monitoring of the situation especially as long as vertiINITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 51

cal separation does not exist. Traffic to and from the Middle East is grown in the simulation at a high rate and this is one of the most affected airspaces. It can be expected that although the current situation may be overestimated this is or will become a bottleneck.

Figure 29: Segmentation of workload Dar es Salaam East Planning Controller Gaborone This sector encounters two significant extremities shortly after noon and in the afternoon. The maximum number of flights in the respective peak sliding hours is 16 and correspondingly lower than in the previously covered sector but the lateral extension is comparable. An airspace description is given in Chapter 2.2.1 with a point out of the special route structure. The first peak results from an outbound phase in Johannesburg. Nearly all northbound flights cross Botswana. The second peak is formed by inbound traffic to Johannesburg. The remarkable fact is that it is not the merging point overhead Gaborone VOR that has to cope with most of the traffic in these peaks as could be assumed from the ATS route layout but the small extension to the southeast in the area of Francistown. Obviously the regional traffic is creating the highest traffic load. As traffic in the peak hours is concentrated to a small area the traffic congestion and therefore the workload is raised. Harare There is a strong correlation between the airspaces of Botswana and Zimbabwe regarding the traffic peaks as flights proceeding via Francistown cross Zimbabwean airspace prior to or after that (cf. Figure 30). The additional flights result from departures and arrivals in Harare and overflights mainly towards South Africa proceeding further to the east on UA405. Harare and Gaborone planning controllers remain below a workload of 70% which is seen as the next critical limit above the 55% that were used to identify the sector regarded here and are therefore considered manageable. Manageable is meaning the availability of capacity in order to cope with higher traffic volumes. Nevertheless an allocation of additional traffic should be done in a way to spread the volume to a wider timeframe.

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 52

Figure 30: Trafficflow Gaborone and Harare ACC per sliding hour Kinshasa At the peak hour between 14:00 and 15:00 there are no more than 14 aircraft in the sector at a time. It is again the ATS route structure causing high workload as flights cross between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Congo-Brazzaville at a single point. Particularly the oil production driven economy of Nigeria is creating a significant demand for air travel and the most direct routing between West and South eastern Africa is through Congolese Airspace. The restrictions in capacity caused by the ATS routing system between the two Congolese states have been dealt with by adding direct routings to East Africa and by the implementation of the Red Carpet routes between Europe and South Africa. Significant progress in cutting the Gordon Knot between Kinshasa and Brazzaville sectors depends on the resolution in the dispute on the undefined border between the countries. Nairobi ACC2 As mentioned above it is normally to be expected that workload of the planning controller rises a certain time ahead of traffic. The figure below shows the workload of the planning controller in sliding hours on a 10 minutes grid and the number of flights in the sector. Five peaks in the traffic flow can be identified and are marked by black dots. The peaks in workload closest to the traffic peaks are marked by black bars. Obviously the expected position of the marked bars and dots is met at the first, third and fourth peak. But two observations have to be analyzed in further detail. On the one hand the fact that the workload peak is reached slightly after or at the point of highest traffic amount at peaks two and five. On the other hand the incongruity of the ratio between traffic and workload peaks. Both problems appear to have the same reason. If the traffic flow of peak two and five is examined one can clearly identify that the workload is strongly influenced by the sector entries from Null airspace. Illustrated in Figure 32 is the Kenyan airspace and apparently no lateral border to Null airspace exists with Nairobi ACC2. The source of entries from Null airspace is marked with a black circle pointing to Jomo Kenyatta airport. In fact these flights are departures from this airport.

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 53

Figure 31: Comparison of workload and traffic peaks in Nairobi ACC2 This is also consistent with the data provided in the next figure showing the tasks carried out by the planning controller within the relevant timeframe in the early afternoon (peak two). Comparing this data with the one presented above for Dar es Salaam East the Kenyan controller is much more tasked with the identification of a safe initial flight level for the departures because there is conflicting traffic restricting the flights to lower levels than requested. The high value for the planning conflict search appears again. This observation will be addressed later.

Figure 32: Entry and exit of flights to and from Nairobi ACC2 The planning controller can start to react to a departing flight not earlier than its take-off. No preplanning 20 minutes ahead can take place and therefore workload rises in conjunction with traffic numbers. The incongruity between traffic load and workload results from the complexity of the traffic situation. In the time interval between 20:00 and 21:00 236 possible conflict situation are identified by the planning and tactical controllers of Nairobi ACC2. However only on four occasions a resolution manoeuver is deemed necessary and is executed.

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 54

Figure 33: Tasks of Nairobi ACC 2 planning controller

3.3.2

TACTICAL CONTROLLERS

Figure 34: Taskload of tactical controllers 2010

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 55

Figure 34 shows the distribution of taskload of the tactical controllers in the analyzed timeframe. A first observation shows that the values are significantly lower than for the planning controllers. Presumably this is related to the fact that only conventional control measures can be used by most of the sectors due to a lack of situation displays and many conflicts are solved in advance by the planning controllers. Again the analysis shall be focussed on a few selected positions. In this case the sectors encountering a taskload of 20% or more shall be reviewed and in addition to that Nairobi ACC1 and ACC3 as they cross the 15% line in the evening and it is considered of interest as in how far this is related to the ACC2 sector.

Figure 35: Sector entry and exit to and from Dar es Salaam East Dar es Salaam East As can be seen in Figure 33 there is a period of high taskload around 18:00. This is congruent with the analysis previously made for the planning controller. Actually 20 flights are in the sector at 18:30 which is more than 10% of total sector crossings per day. Figure 35 can be interpreted in a way that many flights arrive from all different directions in order to land at a Tanzanian airport. One could expect this to cause numerous conflict situations. Actually this is not the case. Figure 36 below shows the distribution of the taskload between different task groups. The communication that takes place is predominantly limited to initial calls. Only twelve conflict situations appear between 18:00 and 19:00. On the right hand side of Figure 36 the type and the resolution manoeuvre applied for these conflicts is shown in combination with the distance at the closest point of approach between the conflicting aircraft. In fact only five resolution manoeuvres are required and the distances between the aircraft are comparably large. This is very typical for non-radar controlled operations. The extraordinary taskload of the planning controller in this sector bolsters the tactical action that would have to be conducted otherwise.

INITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 56

Figure 36: Tasks and conflict situations between 18:00 and 19:00 of Dar es Salaam East tactical controller Gaborone and Harare As it has become clear when analysing the planning controllers there is an interaction between these two sectors. Figure 37 (left) illustrates this as well identifying the traffic flows from (12:20 onwards) and to (14:40 onwards) South Africa through these airspaces. For this timeframe the traffic volumes are presented on the right hand side of this figure by arrows whose size is corresponding to the number of aircraft crossing the border. Stress is laid on visualising the small area this traffic is crossing. Obviously there is numerous opposite traffic. This is not easy to handle in a non-radar environment. Although the overall volume is still not high enough to cause restrictions due to workload and also the planning controllers do have surplus capacity this area can be expected to become one of the bottlenecks in ATC in the geographical area covered.

Figure 37: Gaborone and Harare sector tasks and traffic Nairobi In order to analyse the workload of the Kenyan sectors the interval between 17:30 and 21:00 is reviewed in the simulation as all three sectors are of interest. The first peak in this interval is caused by traffic between Nairobi and Mombasa. As flights are flying in both directions at the same time there are a lot of opposite conflicts. The second peak results from heavy traffic on the route between Dar es Salaam and Nairobi, a departure wave at Nairobi airport and southbound traffic crossing the airspace or with destinations in Kenya and Tanzania. Especially the opposite traffic problem requires many altitude changes. Hereby additional attenINITIAL SITUATION (2010)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 57

tion of the ACC2 tactical controller is required regarding the issuance of initial flight level clearances for departing traffic conflicting with inbound traffic. Some of these situations are solved in advance by the planning controller. Here the large lateral extension of the airspace is problematic. Flights have normally not reached the top of descent point before entering the sector. Thus although aircraft arriving from Dar es Salaam cross the ACC3 sector before entering ACC2 ACC3 tactical controller is not able to assist his colleague in establishing vertical separation. It has to be noticed that lateral separation methods like vectoring or parallel offset are not used by the controllers in the simulation.

3.4

ADJUSTMENT OF SCENARIO

As previously mentioned in the analysis of the Dar es Salaam East and Nairobi ACC2 planning controllers the value for conflict search is extremely high in comparison to other tasks. This value is created by two configurations in the scenario. At which interval is the planning controller checking flight progress strips for possible conflicts and which weight is given to that task. For the scenario a monitoring interval of three minutes is assumed and the task weight is predefined as five seconds. Obviously this results in unrealistic values. In case of the mentioned controllers they spend half an hour on checking flight progress strips for possible conflict situations. This is unrealistic because they should constantly have a mental picture of the traffic situation 20 minutes ahead. Upon receipt of a new flight progress strip or an estimate revising flight data this picture is updated and modified. In order to do that the strip bay is checked. Depending on the configuration of the sector all flights within a certain time interval have to be checked or it can be concentrated on a few if different independent traffic flows cross the sector. These considerations cannot be reproduced in the simulation environment. The intention before carrying on with the analysis for 2020 traffic is to equalize the weight of the different tasks performed by planning controllers. Figure 36 exemplarily shows balanced weights for tasks of the tactical controller. Therefore no adjustments are performed in the task weight of tactical controllers.

Figure 38: Distribution of tasks Dar es Salaam East planning controller

In order to accomplish this intention either the scanning interval or the task weight can be reduced. For the present scenario the second method is chosen. This represents the fact of constant awareness of the traffic situation of the planning controller by maintaining the moniADJUSTMENT OF SCENARIO

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 58

toring interval at a high level. As this should not require revising all flight progress strips at every interval the task weight can significantly be reduced, in this case to two seconds. The previously used task weight of five seconds allowed scanning for all possible conflict situations a certain flight might experience. With the reduction this scan is simulated to be performed every seven to eight minutes which is deemed closer to reality. The percentages in Figure 38 present the results of this adjustment. The modified task weight for conflict search influents the Dar es Salaam planning controller in a way that the time spent on identification and solution of conflicts (first bar in Figure 38) is approximately equal to the time spent on monitoring the traffic situation for possible conflicts. Also the coordination processes that are either standard procedures (e.g. input of ACT messages to the flight data processing system) or connected to the solution of conflicts are in line with the other values.

Figure 39: Comparison of taskloads before and after adjustment As the adjustment is made in a linear way the conclusions drawn from the previous results for 2010 traffic remain valid. A change has to be done in the expectation of the instant of time when sector capacity is reached. As Dar es Salaam Easts taskload has been considered to reach an extreme value of 91.4% only a small number of additional flights could be handled. This peak is now reduced to 63.5% and therefore the increase in traffic that is predicted for the scenario may be expected to be manageable. Figure 39 exemplarily shows the graphs for taskloads of Dar es Salaam East (green curves) and Nairobi ACC2 (red curves) planning controllers before and after the adjustment to the task weight. The characteristics of the curves do not change but are solely displaced to a lower level. The reduced extremities of the amplitudes are not changing the overall statement and the consequential conclusions as well. The revised task weight will be used in the analysis of 2020 traffic and comparison of taskloads is done in relation to the adjusted values.

ADJUSTMENT OF SCENARIO

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 59

3.5

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

Analysis will be done for each of the sectors with special attention paid to the situation and the developments in the sectors already examined for 2010.

3.5.1

ANTANANARIVO

The taskload curves for the planning and tactical controllers for 2010 and 2020 show significant differences. It has to be noticed that the planning controller encounters around double the taskload of the tactical controller. At some points the taskload value of 2010 is higher than the value for 2020. This results from differences in the simulation caused by stochastic variations and action applied by the entities simulated. Two interesting observations can be made.

Figure 40: Comparison of taskloads Antananarivo The extreme values the planning position reaches in the morning (four times the value of 2010) result predominantly from the high traffic growth that is expected for traffic between Africa and Asia (+9.2%). The first peak is formed by the inbound traffic from Asia to South Africa. As for the traffic growth only city pairs that exist in the basic scenario are cloned there may be an overestimation as not only existing routes will encounter denser traffic. Nevertheless it should also be taken into account that new city pairs can lead to more complex situations as different routings are used and therefore the establishment of separation is more demanding than in a scenario where all flights arrive separated on a single route. In the present case the time interval between the cloned flights is very small and thus affecting the sector more than it is expected. The second peak can be derived from the traffic mix. Whereas at the first peak only two traffic flows (Runion Europe and Asia South Africa) have to be handled around 15:00 flights in all directions as well as departures and arrivals from and to Runion are crossing the airspace requiring more careful preplanning. This peak is not significantly increased over 2010. The third peak is formed by the reversed traffic flow seen in the morning. No extremities as in the morning are observed here. This is due to the fact that the cloned flights are distributed over longer intervals. This peak is therefore regarded as more realistic than the first in respect to amplitude. The time difference between the peak taskloads for the planning (10:00 and 14:40) and the tactical controllers (12:40) can be explained by the good preplanning that is performed resulting in a reduced taskload for the tactical controller when taking over responsibility for the flights. The comparably late peak at 12:40 is based on the dimenPREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 60

sion of the controlled airspace. It results from the same flights causing the high workload situation for the planning controller about two hours before but now sector exit separation has to be established and this is done by the tactical controller. Due to the preplanning before sector entry the task of establishing sector exit separation is less demanding and the value is not higher than in 2010 in comparison to the fourfold increase in the planning controllers taskload.

3.5.2

BEIRA

The airspace of Mozambique is closely related to the Madagascan. The traffic peak at 12:00 is resulting from the same flights from Asia to South Africa that cause the peak Antananarivo ACC encounters around 10:00. As ATS routes merge overhead Maputo and Beira the tactical controller is challenged more with the same flights than the tactical controller in Antananarivo. An equivalent situation occurs in the evening but at lower scale.

Figure 41: Comparison of taskloads Beira

3.5.3

DAR ES SALAAM

Dar es Salaam East As expected Dar es Salaam East sector is significantly affected by the increase in traffic. Mainly in the early afternoon workload rises in comparison to 2010 figures but remarkable is the extreme value at 18:00 for the planning controller. A short time later a less significant increase for the tactical position is observed. The new peak marked by a taskload of 112.4% for the planning controller is located at 19:20. Therefore the relevant timeframe is reviewed in the scenario. This review identifies the reason for the high workload in the traffic from and to the airports at Dar es Salaam and Kilimanjaro. Figure 43 shows departures and arrivals at these two airports in the respective timeframe. In the beginning a departure phase at Kilimanjaro can be observed followed by a departure phase at Dar es Salaam. After 22:00 an arrival peak at Kilimanjaro can be observed. The phases are very dense and therefore require a lot of coordination and preplanning by the respective controller.

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 61

Figure 42: Comparison of taskloads Dar es Salaam East

Figure 43: Movements at major airports Dar es Salaam East (18:00-22:30) Actually this is a problem within the scenario resulting from the traffic growth. Most of these flights are shuttling between Dar es Salaam and Kilimanjaro airports. Only few other flights cross the sector in the review period. The traffic growth leads to additional flights the more often the route is used in the original scenario and is added within plus or minus 30 minutes from the original flights. In this special case the added flights are departing and arriving very close to the basic flights. Without air traffic control or equivalent procedures simulated at airports (apart from capacity restrictions that are not affected in this case) and in lower airspaces the complete preplanning process is performed by one position without influence on traffic distribution, pre-separation or revised routings. It is as well not possible to take control of the aircraft before they enter the dedicated airspace. Additional complexity arises for the tactical controller as Kilimanjaro airport is situated close to the Kenyan border and therefore the manoeuvring space is limited. It has to be kept in mind that Dar es Salaam ACC is not equipped with a surveillance system and only conventional separations are in use. Although the value of 112.4% is definitely an overestimation it can be expected that a taskload of 70% and beyond has to be expected at certain times in 2020.

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 62

Figure 44: Comparison of taskloads Dar es Salaam West Dar es Salaam West This sector is not experiencing high traffic and taskloads although the peak around 15:20 is remarkably increasing from 2010 to 2020. At some points during the day the taskload is even reducing from 2010 to 2020. This results from a varying traffic distribution. Figure 45 shows two dots per every flight crossing the sector representing the sector entry and exit FL. If two dots are located at the same position this indicates that the flight does not perform a level change. Obviously most flights are only crossing the sector at their cruising altitude. Due to scaling effects the increased spacing between flights at the first peak is not visible resulting in slightly lower taskload for the planning controller. The major peak can be identified clearly by the increase in flights crossing the sector and the increase in FL used in the interval between 15:00 and 17:00. The lower taskload in the period afterwards is also based on increased spacing (vertical and horizontal) between the relevant flights which is distinguishable from the figure as well.

Figure 45: Traffic by entry and exit FL Dar es Salaam West (arranged by sector entry times)

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 63

3.5.4

ENTEBBE

Entebbe ACCs taskload distribution is comparable to that of Dar es Salaam West but most traffic is crossing between Congolese and Kenyan airspace on UA609. There are some significant increases in traffic load but the overall taskload remains low.

Figure 46: Comparison of taskloads Entebbe Figure 47 illustrates the timely distribution of flights crossing the sector. At the highest peak an increase in density of overflights is observed. The dint following that peak in 2010 figures is almost in total levelled by additional flights. As can be seen only overflights are causing significant changes in taskload in this sector.

Figure 47: Traffic by intention Entebbe

3.5.5

GABORONE

The increase in taskload in this sector is another good example for the cloning process and emphasizes the observations made for 2010. Figure 48 suggests additional traffic at the beginning of the analysis period and in the afternoon. Figure 49 confirms that. In 2020 37 flights cross the eastern corner of Botswana airspace in the time interval between 08:00 and 23:00 that was identified as a possible bottleneck when analysing 2010 data. This conclusion is also consistent with the peaks observed in the taskload. In comparison only 28 flights cross the sector on routes like UG853, UN184, UM731 or UM998 from northwest to southPREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 64

east and vice versa. The busy route between Gaborone and Johannesburg (45 flights per day) does not affect the airspace examined here as flights do not reach FL245 before leaving Botswanas airspace. It has to be admitted that the figures shown include some overestimation as no sector skip times are implemented in the scenario. This leads to short sector pierces at the boundary between Botswana and Zimbabwe due to the meander like character of the border requiring tasks to be performed.

Figure 48: Comparison of taskloads Gaborone

Figure 49: New flights crossing Gaborone

3.5.6

HARARE

30 flights are predicted to be operated between Harare and Johannesburg every day. This is an increase of 100% compared to 2010 and the foremost reason for the higher taskload. In this context it shall again be noted that the offer of more capacity is likely to be provided by the use of larger aircraft in similar situations. Especially with regard to Zimbabwe another deficiency in the traffic growth calculation has to be noted. The political situation in some of the countries in the geographical area covered may be a hindrance to traffic growth on a PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 65

regional basis as well in a way that instabilities cause incertitude for businesses and subsequent air traffic predictability.

Figure 50: Comparison of taskloads Harare

Sector Entry Time [hhmmss] 182927 184119 190236 190600 190706 191306 191910 192249 192557 194347 194549 195201 200018 200028 201119 201333 202532 202743 203348 203540 204413 205060 205423 205719

Call Sign 4Z8164 ZJ503 4Z8102 ZO424 SA6776x1 ZO419 SA6776x2 4Z8102x1 UM232x1 UM232 4Z8102x2 SA6776 UM361x1 UM232x2 UM361 ZJ234 UM361x2 SA185 LH8297 4Z8165 UM361x3 ZO425 UM361x4 4Z8103

ADEP ADES FAJS FLLS FAJS FVHA FAJS FQBR FAJS FAJS FVBU FVBU FAJS FAJS FVHA FVBU FVHA FAJS FVHA HKNA FAJS FLLS FVHA FVFA FVHA FVHA FLLS FVHA FVHA FVFA FVHA FVHA FVHA FVHA FVHA FVHA FVHA FVHA FAJS FVHA FAJS FLLS FAJS FAJS HKNA FAJS FAJS FVHA FAJS FAJS

Entry FL 310 245 270 245 310 250 310 270 245 245 270 310 245 245 245 310 245 390 390 310 245 245 245 245

Exit FL 310 245 245 245 245 250 245 245 245 245 245 245 310 245 310 260 280 390 390 310 310 245 310 270

Table 3: Flights crossing Harare Table 3 lists all flights crossing the sector between 18:30 and 21:00. In this time period the taskload steps up considerably. In the first part many flights are proceeding inbound Harare. Call signs ending with x1, x2 and so forth are clones representing the traffic increase. The PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 66

interval between these sector entries is relatively small. Reviewing the tasks performed by the controllers a significant number of FL related transmissions are performed (clearance issuance and reaching level report). This is also required in order to establish sector exit separation as times of arrival in Harare are concentrated to a short period (8 landings between 19:50 and 20:15). The obvious conflict situation between SA185 and LH8297 shall be analyzed in detail as an example for resolutions applied by tactical controllers within the simulation (cf. Appendix 7). At 20:26:03 communication is established with SA185 and at 20:32:08 with LH8297. Three minutes later the conflict situation is identified. A new FL clearance is transmitted to LH8297 at 20:47:48 and the FL is reached at 20:50:52. A few minutes later the conflict situation is solved and LH8297 is cleared back to its original FL at 20:58:58 which is reached at 21:02:03. The handling of both flights sums up to a taskload of 339 seconds. Without the conflict only 272 seconds of tasks would have to be accounted for the two flights. This is equivalent to an increase in taskload of 25%.

3.5.7
Kinshasa

KINSHASA

The interval between 10:40 and 12:40 shows lower taskloads for 2020 than for 2010. As there is no change in total traffic volume this is just due to stochastic distributions within the scenario. The only significant increase for both control positions is seen in the afternoon. This results from the cloning of two flights (KL591 and KL597) from Amsterdam to Johannesburg and Cape Town. The highest peak is reached when flights to and from West Africa cross the sector in the early afternoon. The overall taskload remains low.

Figure 51: Comparison of taskloads Kinshasa Kisangani There are no additional flights in the time period covered in the analysis. The differences in taskload result from variations within the scenario. The overall taskload is very small.

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 67

Figure 52: Comparison of taskloads Kisangani Lubumbashi The taskload encountered by the controllers is negligible and no significant changes over 2010 figures can be observed.

Figure 53: Comparison of taskloads Lubumbashi

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 68

3.5.8

LILONGWE

No additional flights cross the sector. There is only one peak observable in the late afternoon. The traffic load would even be lower if the sector skip option would be included in the scenario. Figure 55 illustrates the traffic flows through the sector. Most of the flights are solely crossing the north-western end of Malawi airspace. The time inside the sector is approximately two minutes. This results in comparably high taskload figures as for each flight a flight progress strip is received and removed, a hand-off is performed and an initial call takes place. This is weighted with circa 90 seconds for both controllers. In case the flights would enter at shorter intervals a very high taskload would be encountered.

Figure 54: Comparison of taskloads Lilongwe

Figure 55: Number of flights crossing Lilongwe sector

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 69

3.5.9

LUANDA

The traffic increase in Luanda results from the same cloned flights mentioned when analysing Kinshasa sector (KL591 and KL597). The overall volume remains very low.

Figure 56: Comparison of taskloads Luanda

3.5.10

LUSAKA

Taskloads for both controllers remain comparably low in 2020. Figure 58 shows the relation between traffic in the sector and the taskload of the tactical controller. In the time interval 17:30 to 19:30 this is relatively low as the flights do not conflict with each other due to preplanning (cf. Figure 57) and intention (routing and cruising level). The high volume of traffic entering the sector at 20:30 does not cause any increase as this results from a departure phase in Lusaka with destinations in different directions and therefore no need for the tactical controller to intervene.

Figure 57: Comparison of taskloads Lusaka

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 70

Figure 58: Taskload of tactical controller vs. traffic entering Lusaka sector

3.5.11

MATSAPHA

There are three traffic peaks. The first is formed by arrivals from Asia to Johannesburg. The second and third peaks result from traffic from Johannesburg to Asia. As flights do not remain longer than three minutes in the sector considerations made in the description of the Swazi airspace and on the above mentioned sector skipping option are valid in this case as well.

Figure 59: Comparison of taskloads Matsapha

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 71

3.5.12

MAURITIUS

The characteristic of the graph for the planning controllers position illustrates problems that may occur when setting up a scenario. In the morning hour six additional flights from Asia to Johannesburg enter the sector from Null airspace. In this case the reduction of the analysis timeframe to 08:00 until 23:00 cuts off the ascent in taskload of the controllers. As separation values for Null airspace are not defined these flights enter within a few minutes and separation has to be established by the Mauritian controller. This is not a realistic scenario as flights would normally enter the sector well separated and therefore the loss of information at the beginning of the analysis timeframe is negligible. In the evening six additional flights from Johannesburg to Asia cross the airspace. As these flights are previously handled by other defined sectors with separation established between them the increase in taskload is low. This situation is also expected for the morning peak.

Figure 60: Comparison of taskloads Mauritius

3.5.13

NAIROBI

Nairobi ACC1 An increase in flights crossing the sector in the analysis period of 16% takes place. This additional traffic is evenly allocated to the scenario and does not cause inconvenience for the controllers.

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 72

Figure 61: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC1 Nairobi ACC2 Interestingly the first two of the significant peaks cover ten additional flights and the third one only eight. The respective time periods are reviewed for detailed analysis.

Figure 62: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC2 The first peak is characterized by numerous departures and arrivals from and to Nairobi airport. Especially the departures of cloned flights are unevenly distributed and often take place coincidentally. Again the absence especially of departure procedures leads to the identification of multiple conflict situations that would otherwise not exist. This is the reason for the doubling of taskload with an increase of traffic of only one third. The crossing traffic does not cause problems as it is low in number and not conflicting due to the availability of sufficient unoccupied FLs. The second peak is similar to the first one. Again a departure phase with short intervals between flights requires pre-planning. Especially flights leaving the sector to the south-east cause separation problems as an arrival phase with flights mainly arriving from the south is subsequent to it. 17 aircraft enter the sector within 45 minutes of which seven are cloned. This also leads to the situation that arrivals are descended early and operate uneconomically. The third peak incorporates departures and arrivals as well as numerous overflights. This leads to a higher complexity than before and therefore nearly triples the taskload PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 73

to an unacceptable level. In fact the highest number of flights in sector is reached between 17:00 and 18:00. 33 aircraft are crossing the sector in this hour and 29 in the interval between 20:00 and 21:00. These figures illustrate that the composition of traffic is of greater influence on taskload than the number of flights handled.

Figure 63: Comparison of taskloads Nairobi ACC3 Nairobi ACC3 As mentioned before this sector is affected by flights between the three airports of Nairobi, Mombasa and Dar es Salaam. Depending on which airport has a departure or arrival phase the peaks are encountered before or after the other relevant sectors. Flights between Nairobi and Dar es Salaam although significant in numbers do not cause inacceptable increases in taskload as separation is established by the other sectors and only the short time in the sector (approximately 10 minutes) may cause a stressful situation for the controllers.

3.5.14

SEYCHELLES

The increase in taskload is caused by flights from Asia to South Africa the overall volume of traffic remains very low with only 42 flights crossing the sector in the analysis period.

Figure 64: Comparison of taskloads Seychelles

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

PAGE 74

3.5.15

WINDHOEK

Windhoek North No more than three flights are operating in the sector at the same time. Therefore no significant taskloads are observed. The increase at the first peak is caused by stochastic distributions. The second peak is related to the above mentioned KL597 from Amsterdam to Cape Town that is cloned twice. This forms an unexpected and unrealistic extremity but the overall taskload remains negligible.

Figure 65: Comparison of taskloads Windhoek North Windhoek South In the southern sector of Namibian airspace more flights are observed as connections between the capital and Botswana and South Africa only cross this sector. The higher taskload in the evening is caused by the same flights as in the northern sector.

Figure 66: Comparison of taskloads Windhoek South

PREDICTED SITUATION (2020)

VALIDATION

PAGE 75

4
4.1

VALIDATION
RAMS PLUS

Before answering the question whether RAMS Plus is a suitable tool to conduct comparable analyses the following questions may arise. Is it reasonable to simulate and analyse airspace as large and heterogeneous as the one covered in the present thesis? The dimension is not seen problematic as it is only extending the effort to be put ahead and the amount of calculations to be performed by the software. The heterogeneity does cause difficulties. Complexity of the input data is a minor constraint. The validity of results and especially the conclusions drawn have to be proven for each of the different environments. The differences between sectors are dimension of airspace, means of surveillance and control (radar, procedural), traffic characteristics (overflights, departures and arrivals, congestions in area and time) and procedures established with adjacent entities (separation, hand-off procedures, sector entry and exit points). For clarification Lilongwe and Nairobi ACC2 sectors shall be compared. Lilongwe sector is relatively small and flights are subject to procedural control. Traffic to and from Malawi airports is limited and therefore overflights cause most of the traffic load. These flights cross the airspace predominantly in the north and only remain in responsibility of the tactical controller for two minutes. It is arguable whether a hand-off for this short interval is reasonable. It has to be mentioned again that hand-off and coordination procedures established on bilateral basis are not included in the scenario due to a lack of information. Nairobi ACC2 in contrast to that is approximately twice as big and controlled by radar. Although more overflights are accounted in this sector the workload is closer related to airport traffic as. These flights are additionally congested in time. The resulting figures for Nairobi ACC2 illustrate well the predominance of situation complexity over total traffic load. Also a geographical concentration in the triangle formed by Nairobi, Mombasa and Dar es Salaam can be observed. These considerations shall underline the inapplicability of restricting the analysis methods to a limited number of repeatedly exercised calculations. RAMS Plus is offering an extensive range of definable values. Heterogeneity is therefore not problematic on the input side if sufficient data is available. The large amount of data requires the user of the software to implement the data directly to the database. Nevertheless this approach should be performed with care in order to prevent mismatches as troubleshooting in the raw data is very complex. Adjustment of values is often performed faster and easier using the graphic interface. Scenario complexity and extent is heavily influencing simulation performance. Due to this fact it is recommended to either reduce the complexity or the number of sectors subject to analysis. For the scenario developed the complexity can be esteemed moderate. The number of sectors simulated is very high. As South African airspace is side lined only in the analysis but not in the scenario this is expected to have a major impact on simulation performance. In summary RAMS Plus is seen a well suited tool for this analysis as the detailedness is adjustable to the needs. Also for other investigations such as TMA related analyses the software properties are expected to be beneficial. The interface is showing some drawbacks. Although the graphic editor is easy to handle it is not suitable to implement large databases. The import/export functionality is helpful but direct access to the database using an interface instead of rewriting single files would be considered advantageous. The most interesting observation made during the analysis is the fact that most conflicts are solved by the planning controllers resulting in an imbalance between the workload of the two controller positions. In reality one would expect that as soon as the planning controller RAMS PLUS

VALIDATION

PAGE 76

reaches a certain limit in workload conflicts are not solved any more but handled to an extent that the tactical controller is able to manage the situation. For example Nairobi ACC2 it was observed that the planning controllers workload exceeds 100% at certain times while the tactical controllers workload remains below 40%. Beside overestimations included in the analyzed data an uneven distribution of tasks that distinct would not be acceptable and practicable in reality.

4.2

SCENARIO

First of all it has to be stated that most airspaces are not expected to reach capacity limits by 2020 although traffic growth is predicted high. Another statement applicable to all airspaces is the existence of pronounced peaks. The occurrence of the peaks at certain times of the day is closely related to the geographical position of the airspace. This has become clear when reviewing the interdependency of Gaborone and Harare sectors. The merging area for flights to and from Johannesburg was expected to become a bottleneck. Although traffic via this small area is increasing the resulting workload is not identifying any restrictions. Primarily for crossing traffic not originating in Botswana or Zimbabwe the establishment of separation is performed by previous sectors and therefore not causing more than linear increase in tasks in relation to the number of aircraft. This fact stresses the observation of higher taskloads in sectors above busy airports. At this point it shall also be mentioned that airport capacity as defined in chapter 2.2.2 has never been identified an influencing factor to the number of movements (cf. reference 22). On the contrary the lack of restrictions is identified as the source of many traffic peaks. As traffic is concentrated on comparably few routings also the number of sectors affected is low. This result may be heightened by the assignment of routings. As no route finding tool is available in RAMS Plus 5.0 possibly not all flights used the shortest routes due to wrong identifications during the preparation of the scenario.

Figure 67: Route usage 2020 (more than 20 flights per day) Some of the busiest routings are very short in comparison to the dimension of the African continent. The distances between Gaborone, Harare and Johannesburg, between Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, Mombasa as well as between Kilimanjaro and Dar es Salaam are shorter than 500 NM. For some of these routes it may be applicable to either create special pro-

SCENARIO

VALIDATION

PAGE 77
46

cedures or designated airspaces as already presented in the Kenya Airspace Master Plan . Especially the creation of new sectors can be expected to significantly reduce workload for the controllers. This shall be elucidated in more detail. As mentioned in chapter 2.2.1 the Kenyan airspace has been sectorized according to the proposals in the Kenya Airspace Master Plan. Apart from the extremities previously mentioned the mean values of planning controller taskload shall be sufficient for clarification: ACC1 (13.4%), ACC2 (54.9%) and ACC3 (22.2%). As taskload is equivalent to the time spent on performing certain activities it is seen inevitable to divide the sector into smaller parts as summing up these values results in a mean taskload of more than 90%. What has to be seen critical is the imbalance (approximately factor 2) between the sectors and therefore this specific partitioning is not recommended. As ACC2 extends down to FL145 a vertical split-up to separate overflights at high levels from aircraft departing from or arriving at Nairobi airport may be of benefit. A suitable solution could be to assign the ACC2 airspace above FL300 (depending on average aircraft performance higher values may be used) to ACC1 as flights crossing the Kenyan border from the north in order to continue via Nairobi in south-westerly direction would only be handled by a single sector. Aircraft with the destination Nairobi would then be descended and handed over to ACC2. Nevertheless the assumption made on the separation minimum of 20 NM for Nairobi sectors instead of 5 NM for other radar controlled airspaces did not prove to be a problem as the excessive workloads do not show up at the tactical positions. Another problem resulting from the sectorization of Kenyan Airspace as used in the scenario is the increase in possible throughput of flights. This is convenient for the Kenyan airspace but the adjacent sectors have to be taken into account as well. The most extreme values in taskload encountered by Nairobi ACC2 and Dar es Salaam East are correlating. As described in the motivation (chapter 1.1) the idea of a single sky would considerably facilitate the required adjustments. For the Tanzanian airspace the same observation of imbalance in the share of workload between the sectors can be observed. This disproportion would be even bigger without the delegation of UA609 to Nairobi ACC3 airspace. As this route towards islands in the southern part of the Indian Ocean is crossed by routes connecting Southern Africa and the Middle East off the East African coast it requires constant monitoring. The delegation of upper airspaces of Burundi and Rwanda to Dar es Salaam ACC and boundary alignments as just mentioned and described in chapter 2.2.1 is to be looked upon favourably. But still regarding the overall small number of traffic pilots are in contact with numerous different ground stations. As VHF coverage is not as extensive as in other areas of the world frequency changes may cause difficulties. Therefore the implementation of ADS-C and in a longer term ADS-B in combination with datalink for controller-pilot communication is seen as a big step forward. The combination of situational awareness enhanced by ADS-systems and an orientation of controlled airspaces along traffic flows reduce the workload for both sides: flight crew and ATC. As it was figured out in the analysis some sectors operate at a very low level. One interesting airspace in this context is Windhoek FIR. The implementation of a multilateration system although the applied separation minimum of 5 NM may be too low is not justified by the traffic load identified in upper airspace in the scenario. As already mentioned in chapter 2.2.4.2 a balance between costs and benefits has to be found when investing in new infrastructure. The justification for that system may be found in lower airspace which is not part of the analysis.

46

Kenya Airspace Master Plan, (p.15 and p.70)

SCENARIO

SUMMARY

PAGE 78

SUMMARY

The present thesis aimed to evaluate the suitability of RAMS Plus 5.0 for the analysis of airspace capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa. As this is a geographical area not as well known to many readers as for example Europe or North America the first chapter provides background information on the existing airspace situation. This includes an insight into the air traffic flows as well as the technical abilities regarding navigation and surveillance. Prior to the implementation methodology as described in the second chapter the requirements for the simulation and analysis are listed. This list is used as guidance when describing the process of data integration into the software. The background information previously given is rendered more precisely for airspace, navigation, surveillance and traffic characteristics. During this process the relevant requirements are met. Nevertheless a number of assumptions are made which to a certain degree are proven in the second chapter already. Other assumptions are analyzed during the analysing process that is described in chapter three. The scenario that was developed as described in the previous chapter shows deficiencies already in the present situation (cf. chapter 3.3). Therefore an adjustment has to be performed that also provides a deeper insight into the RAMS Plus programming philosophy. As now a suitable basis has been defined the superordinate objective of analysing a predicted traffic situations influence on the airspace capacity can be tackled. Chapter 3.5 provides an analysis of differing detailedness for all sectors. Airspaces that are predicted to encounter severe taskloads are given more attention than sectors with low traffic volume. Chapter 4 describes briefly the challenges and problems as well as the positive and encouraging results of the thesis. This is done separately for the software and the developed scenario. The final result has to be described as follows: By rearranging the sectors according to ATS routes and allocating some of these sectors to controllers presently underchallenged with their duties capacity in high load sectors could be set free and used for traffic growth. States in the geographical area covered are pushing towards this solution. EAC47 and SADC48 are projecting consolidated airspaces and ACCs. This is the right direction for the future as economic and ecological considerations are of increasing importance. RAMS Plus can be a tool to assist the implementation of these visionary goals.

47 48

APIRG/16, UFIR Project Special AFI RAN Meeting, UACC Project

SCENARIO

SUMMARY

PAGE 79

REFERENCES
Note: References where data has been derived from are written in black, references to additional information and further reading are written in grey. All APIRG documents are available at: http://www.icao.int/wacaf/apirg/index.html /1/ APIRG: Single sky concept in air traffic management in the AFI region, Report of the fourteenth meeting of the AFI Planning and Implementation Regional Group, Conclusion 14/30, Yaounde, Cameroon, 23-27 June 2003, (p.18) PRND: First Meeting of the PBN Route Netword Development Working Group (PRND WG/1) and ATS Routes Development Coordination, Johannesburg, South Africa, 13-16 July 2010 APIRG: Seventeeth Meeting of APIRG (APIRG/17), AFI PBN Regional Implementation Plan, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 26 August 2010, WP/7, Appendix G APIRG: Seventeeth Meeting of APIRG (APIRG/17), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 26 August 2010, WP/7, APPENDIX E2 ICAO: Doc 9916, Annual Report of the Council, 2008, Appendix 1, Table 4. (p.98), published 2009 Boeing: Current Market Outlook, 2009-2028, World Regions, Africa, (p.20), published 2008 Airbus: Global Market Forecast 2009-2028, Demand for passenger aircraft, Africa, (p.136), published 2008 Airbus: Global Market Forecast 2009-2028, Demand for passenger aircraft, Africa, (p.138), published 2008 ESAF: International Civil Aviation Organization Eastern and Southern African Office, URL: http://www.icao.int/esaf/ (visited 2010-06-16) ICAO: Doc 9750, Global Air Navigation Plan, Appendix A, (p.47-48), third edition published 2007 Blank map, URL: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BlankMap-Africa.svg (visited 2010-06-14) ASECNA: AIP ASECNA, 0 ENR 2.1 - 01, URL: http://www.ais-asecna.org/pdf/enr/2enr/enr2-1/00enr2-1-01.pdf (visited 2010-06-19) ICAO: ICAO Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Programme website, URL: http://www2.icao.int/en/pbn/Pages/default.aspx (visited 2010-06-11) APIRG: Establishment of an APIRG Performance Based Navigation Task Force (APIRG/PBN/TF), Report of the sixteenth meeting of the AFI Planning and Implementation Regional Group, Decision 16/2, Rubavu, Rwanda, 19-23 November 2007, (p.19)

/2/

/3/ /4/ /5/ /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /10/ /12/ /11/ /13/ /14/

SCENARIO

SUMMARY /15/

PAGE 80

APIRG: Second Joint Meeting of the APIRG Performance Based Navigation and Global Navigation Satellite System Implementation Task Forces (Joint PBN & GNSS/I TFs), Dakar, Senegal, 2-4 March 2010, Agenda Item 3: Status of implementation of PBN in the AFI Region, Appendix A, (p.6-29) ICAO: Africa/Indian Ocean Regional Report 2009, RVSM: An AFI success story, edited by ICAO Coordination, Revenue and Communications Office, ISSN 0018 8778, (p.25-29), published in Montreal, Canada, 2009 APIRG: Third Meeting of the APIRG Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Sub-Group (CNS/SG/3), Nairobi, Kenya, 26-30 April 2010, Agenda Item 3: Follow up on APIRG/16, CNS/SG/2 and SP AFI RAN Conclusions, Decisions and Recommendations, Appendix A, (p.3-7) ICAO WACAF: First Meeting of the SAT FANS 1/A Interoperability Team (SAT FIT/1), Canary Island, Spain, 20-22 April 2006, ADS-C/CPDLC implementation situation of the SAT States/FIRs, Appendix D, (p.16-18) SITA: Highlights | Air Traffic Management, Global Highlights, (p.9), published 2010 KCAA: Kenya Airspace Master Plan, Final Report, June 2005 V6.0, (p.40-42) APIRG: Report of the First Meeting of AFI Surveillance Task Force, Johannesburg, South Africa, 17-18 September 2009, Appendix F, (p.31-32) AICD: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, Background Paper 16 (Phase II), An Unsteady Course: Challenges to Growth in Africas Air Transport Industry, Heinrich C. Bofinger, July 2009, (p.xi-xii) BADA: Aircraft Performance Model developed by the Eurocontrol Validation Infrastructure Centre of Expertise located at Eurocontrol Experimental Centre (EEC) in Brtigny-sur-Orge, France, URL: http://www.eurocontrol.int/eec/public/standard_page/proj_BADA.html (visited 201103-19) ICAO: Eleventh Air Navigation Conference (AN-Conf/11), Montreal, 22 September 3 October 2003, Report on Agenda Item 1, Recommendation 1/14: Development of an ICAO air navigation plan database and associated Web-based information and charting service eANP: URL: http://192.206.28.81/AFIREGION/default.aspx (visited 2010-11-08) AIP ASECNA ENR 5-1-01: Prohibited, Restricted and Danger Areas, URL: http://www.ais-asecna.org/pdf/enr/5-enr/enr5-1/09enr5-1-01.pdf (visited 2010-1109) APIRG: Seventeeth Meeting of APIRG (APIRG/17), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 26 August 2010, WP/25: Civil/Military Cooperation In Support of Optimum Airspace Use, WP/41: Outcome of the AFI Search & Rescue and Civil/Military Coordination and Cooperation seminar (Niamey, Niger 02-03 June 2010) ARINC: ARINC 424 Navigation System Data Base, Cycle 1103, effective 10 March 2011 FAA: Airport Capacity and Delay, Advisory Circular 150/5060-5, published by US Department of Transportation, September 1983 SCENARIO

/16/

/17/

/18/

/19/ /20/ /21/ /22/

/23/

/24/

/25/ /26/

/27/

/28/ /29/

SUMMARY /30/

PAGE 81

SACAA: South African Civil Aviation Authority, Air Traffic Services Standards and Procedures Manual (ATCIs), effective as of 22 July 2009, URL: http://www.caa.co.za/resource%20center/AirTrafficServices/ATS%20Standards%20 and%20Procedures%20manual.htm (visited 2011-01-06) AZ Namibia: Luftraum bald ganz berwacht, Dirk Heinrich, 12 March 2010, URL: http://www.az.com.na/lokales/luftraum-bald-ganz-berwacht.103580.php (visited 2010-03-12) SRA: MSS - MLAT & ADS-B Surveillance, Improving Aircraft Tracking in the Air and on the Ground, company presentation, URL: http://www.sra.com/era/mss/index.php (visited 2011-02-08) KCAA: Kenya Airspace Master Plan, Final Report, June 2005 V6.0, (p.27-30) ICAOData: URL: http://icaodata.com/ (visited 2010-12-07) AICD: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, Background Paper 16 (Phase II), An Unsteady Course: Challenges to Growth in Africas Air Transport Industry, Country Annex, Heinrich C. Bofinger, July 2009 KAA: Kenya Airports Authority, Airport Statistics, URL: http://www.kenyaairports.co.ke/kaa/about/airport_statistics.html (visited 2010-12-07) ACSA: Airports Company South Africa, Passenger and Aircraft Statistics, URL: http://www.acsa.co.za/home.asp?pid=119 (visited 2010-12-07) AICD: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, Background Paper 16 (Phase II), An Unsteady Course: Challenges to Growth in Africas Air Transport Industry, Country Annex, Heinrich C. Bofinger, July 2009, (p.277) AICD: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, Background Paper 16 (Phase II), An Unsteady Course: Challenges to Growth in Africas Air Transport Industry, Country Annex, Heinrich C. Bofinger, July 2009, (p.153) Eurocontrol: Long-Term Forecast (LFT2010): IFR Flight Movements 2010 2030, STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service, 2010 IMF: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2010, URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm (visited 2011-0227) Worldbank: ICP Methodological Handbook, Chapter 3, Annex 1, Spreadsheet for Weights, URL: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/ICPEXT/0,,conte ntMDK:22407349~menuPK:6782529~pagePK:60002244~piPK:62002388~theSiteP K:270065,00.html (visited 2011-03-01) Boeing: Current Market Outlook, 2010-2029, forecast data, URL: http://active.boeing.com/commercial/forecast_data/index.cfm (visited 2011-03-01) African Aviation News: URL: http://www.africanaviation.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=685:south-africanairways-introduces-wide-body-aircraft-on-the-johannesburg-nairobiroute&catid=16:africa (visited 2011-03-04) SCENARIO

/31/

/32/

/33/ /34/ /35/

/36/ /37/ /38/

/39/

/40/ /41/

/42/

/44/ /43/

SUMMARY /45/

PAGE 82

Eurocontrol: Comparison of Different Workload and Capacity Measurement Methods Used in CEATS Simulations, Edition 1.0, Rene Schuen-Medwed, November 2003, (p.12) KCAA: Kenya Airspace Master Plan, Final Report, June 2005 V6.0, (p.15 and p. 70) APIRG: Sixteenth Meeting of APIRG (APIRG/16), Kigali, Rwanda 19-23 November 2007, IP/12: East Africa Upper Flight Information Region (UFIR) Project AFI-RAN: Special Africa-Indian Ocean (AFI) Regional Air Navigation (RAN) Meeting, Durban, South Africa, 27-29 November 2008, IP/23: Upper Airspace Control Centre (UACC) Project Will ASECNA meet the needs of African air navigation for the 21 Century?, An analysis of ASECNAs strategy for adopting advanced CNS/ATM, Francis Ntongo, MSc Thesis, Cranfield University, 2005 Future of Civil Aviation in Africa, Dora-Anne A. Asinjo, Honors Thesis, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, 2006 African air transport in the 21st century: A case study of the contrasting experience of Nigeria and Kenya, Oladele Samson Fatokun, MSc Thesis, Cranfield University, 2005 Wide Area Multilateration: Report on EATMP TRS 131/04, Version 1.1, W.H.L. Neven (NLR), T.J. Quilter (RMR), R. Weedon (RMR), R.A. Hogendoorn (HITT), Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium, August 2005
st

/46/ /47/ /48/

SCENARIO

PAGE 83

APPENDIX 1
Area of Routing AR-2 Airspace and Traffic Management Reduction of longitudinal separation to 10 minutes (2000) Random routing (2005) RVSM (2005) Fixed RNAV routes coexisting with conventional routes (1999) Full ATC service on all ATS routes above FL 245 and 150NM from international airports (1999) Longitudinal separation 10 minutes (2000) Lateral separation: progressive introduction of 30 NM in line with RNP 5 in the upper airspace (2001) Random RNAV routes above FL 350 (2001 onwards) RVSM (2005) Fixed RNAV routes coexisting with conventional routes (1995) Full ATC service on all ATS routes above FL 245 and 150NM from international airports (1999) Longitudinal separation 10 minutes (2000) Lateral separation: gradual introduction of 30 NM in line with RNP 5 in the upper airspace (2001) Random RNAV routes above FL 350 (2001 onwards) RVSM (2005) Fixed RNAV routes coexisting with conventional routes (1999) Full ATC service on all ATS routes above FL 245 and 150NM from international airports (1999) Longitudinal separation 10 minutes (2000) Lateral separation 30 NM in an RNP 5 environment (2001 onwards) RVSM initially between FL350-FL390 (2003 onwards) Random routing initially above FL350 (2001 onwards) Random routing in selected portions of the airspace (1999) Full ATC service on all ATS routes above FL 245 and 150NM from international airports (1999) Reduction of longitudinal separation to 10 minutes (2000) Reduction of lateral separation to 50 NM coinciding with RNP 10 (2000 onwards) RVSM (2005 onwards) Navigation RNP 10 (2000) GNSS as primary means RNP 10 (2000) RNP 5 (2001 onwards) GNSS as primary means

AR-3

RNP 5 (2001 onwards) GNSS as primary means

AR-4

RNP 5 environment (2001) GNSS as primary means

AR-8

RNP 10 (2000) GNSS as primary means

AR-10

APPENDIX 1

PAGE 84

APPENDIX 2
Near Term (2008-2012)
Airspace En-Route Oceanic En-Route Remote En-Route Continental Continental RNAV 10 Navigation Specifications RNAV 10 RNAV 5 TMA Arrival/Departure RNAV 1 in a surveillance environment, Basic RNP 1 in non-surveillance environment Approach RNP APCH with Baro-VNAV or SBAS, or RNP AR APCH if required

where operationally required Implementation Targets

RNP 4

RNP 4

RNAV 1

a)RNP APCH with Baro-VNAV or SBAS for 30% of instrument runways by 2010 and 50% by 2012 b) RNAV 1 SID/STAR for 30% of instrument runways by 2010 and 50% by 2012

Airspace

TMA Arrival/Departure Expand RNAV 1, or RNP-1 application, Mandate RNAV 1, or RNP-1 in high density TMAs

Approach Expand RNP APCH with Baro-VNAV or SBAS, expand RNP AP APCH where there are operational benefits

Mid Term (2013-2016)


En-Route Oceanic En-Route Remote En-Route Continental Continental RNAV 10 Navigation Specifications RNAV 10 RNAV 2, RNAV 5

where operationally required Implementation Targets

RNP 4

RNP 4

RNAV 1

a) RNP APCH with Baro-VNAV or SBAS (APV) in 100% of instrument runways by 2016 b) RNAV 1 or RNP 1 SID/STAR for 100% of international airports by 2016 c) RNAV 1 or RNP 1 SID/STAR for 70% of busy domestic airports where there are operational benefits d) Implementation of additional RNAV/RNP Routes as required

Long Term (2017 and beyond)


Airspace En-Route Overall system responsiveness achieved through flexible routing and wellinformed, distributed decision-making Systems ability to adapt rapidly to changing meteorological and airspace conditions System leverages through advanced navigation capabilities such as fixed radius transitions, RF legs, and RNP offsets TMA Ground-based tactical merging capabilities in terminal airspace, RNP-based arrival and departure structure for greater predictability

Navigation Specifications

APPENDIX 2

Airspace
RNAV-10/RNP-10 RNP-4 RNAV-10/RNP-10 RNP-4 ADS-C RNAV-5 ADS-B (trials) MLAT (trials) ADS-C RNAV-1 ADS-B (trials) MLAT (trials) PSR (where justified) RNAV-1 in a surveillance environment ADS-B (trials) MLAT (trials) PSR (where justified) RNAV-1 in a surveillance environment ADS-B (trials) MLAT (trials) Voice reporting PSR (where justified) RNP APCH with BaroVNAV or ADS-B (trials) MLAT (trials) PSR (where justified) ADS-B (trials) RNP AR APCH if required MLAT (trials) Voice reporting PSR (where justified) ADS-B (gradually) MLAT (gradually) PSR (where justified) ADS-B (gradually) MLAT (gradually) Voice reporting PSR (where justified) ADS-B (gradually) MLAT (gradually) PSR (where justified) ADS-B (gradually) MLAT (gradually) Voice reporting Voice reporting ADS-B (primary) SSR (where implemented) SSR (where implemented) MLAT (supplemental) Voice reporting ADS-B (primary) ADS-B (primary) ADS-B (gradually) MLAT (gradually) ADS-C MLAT (gradually) ADS-B, ADS-B (primary) MLAT (supplemental) ADS-B (primary) ADS-B (gradually) ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C, ADS-B (primary) MLAT (supplemental) ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C ADS-C

PBN Navigation Specifications

Short-term (2008-2012)

Mid-term (2013-2016)

Long term (2017and beyond)

APPENDIX 3

En-Route Oceanic

En-Route Remote Continental

En-Route Continental

TMA Type 3

SSR (where implemented) SSR (where implemented) MLAT (supplemental)

TMA Arrival/ Departure

TMA Type 2

SSR (where implemented) SSR (where implemented) MLAT (supplemental)

Basic RNP-1 in nonTMA Type 1 surveillance environment

Aerodrome Type 3

SSR (where implemented) SSR (where implemented) MLAT (supplemental)

Approach

Aerodrome Type 2

APPENDIX 3

PAGE 85

Aerodrome Type 1

PAGE 86

APPENDIX 4

APPENDIX 4

PAGE 87

APPENDIX 5

APPENDIX 5

PAGE 88

APPENDIX 6
parallel No. of No. of FAA hourly ICAO parallel Exit TWY suitable parallel capacity MOV/hr Code TWY Factor compenRWYs RWYs base sation FABL 2 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FACT 2 1 2 0,92 52 0,5 48 FADN 1 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FAEL 2 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FAJS 2 2 2 0,92 52 0,5 96 FALA 1 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FANS 1 1 1 0,77 54 0,5 21 FAPE 2 1 2 0,83 54 0,5 45 FAPM 1 1 1 0,77 54 0,5 21 FAUP 1 1 1 0,83 54 0,5 22 FBFT 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FBGR 1 1 2 0,91 28 0,5 25 FBMN 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FDMS 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FIMP 1 1 1 0,86 28 0,5 12 FLLI 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FLLS 1 1 2 0,91 28 0,5 25 FLMF 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FLND 1 1 1 0,91 28 0,5 13 FMCH 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FMCV 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FMEE 2 1 1 0,86 28 0,5 12 FMMI 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FMMT 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FMNM 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FNHU 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FNLU 2 1 1 0,77 54 0,5 21 FQBR 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FQMA 1 1 2 0,91 28 0,5 25 FSPP 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FSIA 1 1 1 0,80 28 0,5 11 FVBU 1 1 2 0,91 28 0,5 25 FVFA 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FVHA 1 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FWCL 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FWKI 1 1 2 0,91 28 0,5 25 FXMM 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FYWH 1 1 2 0,91 54 0,5 49 FYWB 1 1 1 0,83 54 0,5 22 FZAA 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 FZIC 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 FZQA 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HBBA 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HKEL 1 1 1 0,77 54 0,5 21 HKNA 1 1 2 0,92 52 0,5 48 HKKI 1 1 1 0,77 54 0,5 21 HKMO 1 1 2 0,92 52 0,5 48 HRYR 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HTDA 1 1 2 0,92 28 0,5 26 HTKJ 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HTMW 1 1 1 0,77 28 0,5 11 HTCA 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HUAR 1 1 1 0,83 28 0,5 12 HUEN 2 1 2 0,92 28 0,5 26 VRMM 1 1 1 0,80 28 0,5 11

Airport Bloemfontein Capetown Durban East London Johannesburg Lanseria Nelspruit Port Elizabeth Pietermaritzburg Upington Francistown Gaborone Maun Manzini Mauritius Livingstone Lusaka Mfuwe Ndola Moroni Mayotte Saint Denis Antananarivo Tamatave Mahajanga Huambo Luanda Beira Maputo Praslin Mahe Bulawayo Victoria Falls Harare Blantyre Lilongwe Maseru Windhoek Walvis Bay Kinshasa Kisangani Lubumbashi Bujumbura Eldoret Nairobi Kisumu Mombasa Kigali Dar es Salaam Kilimanjaro Mwanza Zanzibar Arua Entebbe Male

APPENDIX 6

PAGE 89

APPENDIX 7
Time 195243 195243 195728 195733 195733 195738 195738 195743 195743 195848 195848 195902 200202 200333 200338 200338 200343 200343 200348 200348 200502 200502 200802 200802 201102 201102 201402 201402 201702 201702 202002 202002 202302 202302 202543 202602 202602 202603 202902 202902 203148 203202 203202 203208 203502 203502 203502 203802 203802 204102 204402 204702 204748 204758 205002 205052 205239 205302 205602 205858 205902 205908 210202 210203 210502 210802 211102 211402 211702 212002 Call Sign SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 SA185 LH8297 SA185 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 LH8297 SA185 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 LH8297 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 SA185 Controller PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController TacticalController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController PlanningController Task Group FlightDataManagement FlightDataManagement Coordination ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch Coordination ConflictSearch FlightDataManagement FlightDataManagement ConflictSearch ConflictSearch Coordination ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch Coordination ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication RTCommunication ConflictSearch RTCommunication RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch RTCommunication ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch ConflictSearch Task RxFlightProgressStrip RxFlightProgressStrip RxTimeLevelEstimate CFSToEstablishSectorEntryClearance CFSToEstablishSectorEntryClearance CFSToEstablishSectorExitClearance CFSToEstablishSectorExitClearance InputACTMessageToComputer PlanningConflictSearch RxFlightProgressStrip RxFlightProgressStrip PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch RxTimeLevelEstimate CFSToEstablishInitialFLClearance CFSToEstablishInitialFLClearance CFSToEstablishSectorExitClearance CFSToEstablishSectorExitClearance InputACTMessageToComputer PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch RxHandoff PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch Rx1stCall PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch RxHandoff PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch Rx1stCall PlanningConflictSearch ConflictSituationIdentified PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch TxNewFL TxNewFL PlanningConflictSearch RxFlightLevelReachedReport RxFlightLevelReachedReport PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch TxNewFL PlanningConflictSearch TxNewFL PlanningConflictSearch RxFlightLevelReachedReport PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch PlanningConflictSearch Task Weight 10 5 15 8 5 5 5 15 2 10 5 2 2 25 15 10 5 5 15 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 10 2 2 5 2 2 10 2 15 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 1 2 5 5 2 2 10 2 1 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2

APPENDIX 7

PAGE 90

APPENDIX 8
airportoperation.dat Adjustment of departure, arrival and total movement rate FYWH.0.00.60.00.49.00.49.00.49.00.0.0..x..x..x..x.0.00.86400.00

navaid.dat Navaid name extended with ICAO country code, coordinates in decimal format and definition of navaid type ABALO_LP...............32.3310309967.......-18.1303356149..WPT

airway.dat Adjustment of minimum and maximum usable flight level to scenario requirements UA405................245.00..660.00..111.00..555.00..11.00..

route.dat Correct sequencing of navaids in route definition UA572......LGI_GF. UA572......EGAGA_GF. UA572......NAMIB_GF. UA572......TINIS_GO. UA572......ERTOX_GO. UA572......BITEX_GO.

corner.dat Airspace corners defined by coordinates in decimal format C12554.......-37.0000000000........15.0000000000

APPENDIX 8

PAGE 91 boundary.dat Closed polygon of corners defines sector boundary B22.C12554.C12555. B22.C12555.C12568. B22.C12568.C12571. B22.C12571.C12614. B22.C12614.C12553. B22.C12553.C12554.

centreschedule.dat Centre may be restricted to certain operating times WINDHOEK.WindhoekFIR.SunToSat.000000.240000

centresector.dat Assignment of boundary identifier to particular sector with lower and upper limit WINDHOEK.WindhoekFIR.WINDHOEKACCNORTH.B42......245.0.....660.0

sector.dat Assignment of planning and tactical controllers to sector with extended foresight values in lateral and vertical direction WINDHOEKACCNORTH.PlanWINDHOEKACCNORTH.TactWINDHOEKACCNORTH..20.0..20.0.0

controller.dat Controller definition with hand-off times, vertical separation minimum, lateral and longitudinal separation minimum in NM and sec, rulegroup and conflict detection interval TactWINDHOEKACCNORTH.03Minute.03Minute.RVSMSeparation.TACT.RADAR.5.0000..0.00..5.0000..600.00. .TacticalRules.2.60.00.180.00

trafficexchange.dat Traffic description by scenario entry time, call sign, departure and arrival aerodrome, aircraft type and equipment, entry, cruise and exit flight level, routing defined by navaids and airways 094500;SW707;FAJS;RWY;FYWH;RWY;B737S;Normal;RVSMEquip;0;310;0;JSV_FA;UL43 5;HBV_FA;UG653;WHV_FY;

APPENDIX 8

Angola

Botswana Burundi DRC

Kenya

Lesotho

Madagascar Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique Namibia Rwanda

Seychelles

South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Contribution to regional growth

APPENDIX 9
Zimbabwe

$9

1,060 1,042 1,042 1,059 1,056 1,029 1,046 1,052 1,027 1,056 1,035 1,047 1,035 1,035 1,024 1,049 1,038 1,053 1,049

Angola 1,060

Botswana 1,042 1,051

Burundi 1,042 1,051 1,042

DRC 1,059 1,060 1,051 1,051

Kenya 1,056 1,058 1,049 1,049 1,058

Lesotho 1,029 1,045 1,036 1,036 1,044 1,043

Madagascar 1,046 1,053 1,044 1,044 1,053 1,051 1,038

Malawi 1,052 1,056 1,047 1,047 1,056 1,054 1,041 1,049

Mauritius 1,027 1,044 1,035 1,035 1,043 1,042 1,028 1,037 1,040

Mozambique 1,056 1,058 1,049 1,049 1,058 1,056 1,043 1,051 1,054 1,042

Namibia 1,035 1,048 1,039 1,039 1,047 1,046 1,032 1,041 1,044 1,031 1,046

Rwanda 1,047 1,054 1,045 1,045 1,053 1,052 1,038 1,047 1,050 1,037 1,052 1,041

Seychelles 1,035 1,048 1,039 1,039 1,047 1,046 1,032 1,041 1,044 1,031 1,046 1,035 1,041

South Africa 1,035 1,048 1,039 1,039 1,047 1,046 1,032 1,041 1,044 1,031 1,046 1,035 1,041 1,035

Swaziland 1,024 1,042 1,033 1,033 1,042 1,040 1,027 1,035 1,038 1,026 1,040 1,030 1,036 1,030 1,030

Tanzania 1,049 1,055 1,046 1,046 1,054 1,053 1,039 1,048 1,051 1,038 1,053 1,042 1,048 1,042 1,042 1,037

Uganda 1,038 1,049 1,040 1,040 1,049 1,047 1,034 1,042 1,045 1,033 1,047 1,037 1,043 1,037 1,037 1,031 1,044

Zambia 1,053 1,057 1,048 1,048 1,056 1,055 1,041 1,050 1,053 1,040 1,055 1,044 1,050 1,044 1,044 1,039 1,051 1,046

APPENDIX 9

PAGE 92

Zimbabwe 1,049 1,048 1,044 1,044 1,048 1,047 1,041 1,045 1,046 1,040 1,047 1,042 1,045 1,042 1,042 1,039 1,042 1,042 1,042

You might also like