Market Outlook

India Research
April 2, 2012

Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias tracking cues from SGX Nifty which is trading marginally in the red. However, most of the Asian indices are trading higher in the range of 0.2-0.8%. The economic data released by various US agencies was a mixed bag. While on a positive note, personal spending in February 2012 was better than estimates at 0.8%, personal income growth came in below estimates at 0.2% for the month. Further, consumer sentiment has showed an unexpected improvement in the month of March. Thus, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed higher by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, Nasdaq closed marginally lower by 0.1%. The major European markets edged up higher on Friday. On the domestic front, the Indian markets surged higher on Friday following the Finance Ministers clarification that Participatory Note holders would not be taxed. Further, the RBIs purchase of `10,000cr worth of bonds through open market operations (OMOs), too buoyed market sentiments. Meanwhile the markets will be keenly tracking the EXIM data to be released for the month of February 2012.

BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei

2.0 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.2
Chg (%)

345.6 17,404 116.7 145.5 132.6 119.9 183.5 5,296 6,346 6,629 6,626 7,311

292.5 11,751 225.2 10,135 285.5 11,346 222.0 130.7

(Pts)

8,088 6,082
(Close)

0.5 (0.1) 0.5 (0.3) (0.3) 0.6 0.5

66.2 13,212 (3.8) 26.4 3,092 5,768

(31.2) 10,084 (53.8) 20,556 16.4 10.6 3,010 2,263

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,316 / 5,269 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,527 17,651 / 5,334 5,372 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,316 / 5,269 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,193 16,982 / 5,230 5,165 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 16,982 5,165 S1 17,193 5,230 PIVOT 17,316 5,269 R1 17,527 5,334 R2 17,651 5,372

Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com

Indian ADRs

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY WIT IBN HDB

1.0 1.7 2.6 2.8

0.6 0.2 0.9 0.9

$57.0 $11.0 $34.9 $34.1

News Analysis

Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

BSE

NSE

NTPC commissions Unit IV of Simhadri STPP L&T bags order worth `1,875cr
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

1,971 928 108

1,145 323 48

Net Inflows (March 29, 2012)

` cr FII MFs Purch 3,948 641 Sales 5,248 634 Net (1,299) 7 MTD 7,731 (1,409) YTD 44,028 (5,436)
Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE

3,683 12,053

FII Derivatives (March 30, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures Stock Futures

Purch 2,858 1,754

Sales 3,359 1,643

Net (501) 111

Open Interest 9,661 21,813

Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Mangalore Ref Bosch OIL INDIA Jain Irrigation JUBL FOOD

Losers Company
Suzlon Energy Coromandel Intl Amtek Auto United Brew Apollo Hosp

Price (`)
68 8,251 515 99 1,168

chg (%)
11.7 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.1

Price (`)
25 285 132 541 639

chg (%)
(3.3) (1.7) (1.7) (1.6) (1.2)

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

Market Outlook | India Research

NTPC commissions Unit IV (500MW) of Simhadri Super Thermal Power Project

NTPC commissioned Unit IV (500 MW) of Simhadri Super Thermal Power Project on March 30, 2012. With this, the total capacity of NTPC Group has become 37,014MW. In all, NTPC Group has commissioned 2,820MW of capacity in FY2012 till date, which is below the initial target of 4,320MW. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.6x FY2013E P/BV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `199.

L&T bags order worth `1,875cr

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) Construction bagged orders worth `1,875cr from various segments during March 2012. The Power Transmission and Distribution IC secured new orders in domestic as well international markets from reputed customers. Domestic orders worth `701cr include a major order from Tamil Nadu Electricity Board for the construction of 148km, 400kV DC (Quad) transmission line from Pugalur to Pandiankuppam in Tamil Nadu. The project will be completed in 18 months. The company has bagged two additional orders for the construction of substations at Malaysendra from Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation and at Jind, Haryana, from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited. International orders, valued at `194cr, include those for construction of a 220/33kV substation and various orders for ongoing projects at UAE. The Building and Factories IC has bagged new orders aggregating `841cr. This includes construction of residential apartments in Chennai and Mumbai from leading developers. Another new order has been received for the construction of a mall in Bangalore. In the Solar Business Unit, L&T Construction has secured orders worth `139cr from reputed developers for the construction of a 5.75 MW Solar PV plant on EPC basis in Rajasthan and general civil works for 1x125 MW solar thermal power project in Gujarat. At the CMP of `1,307, the stock is trading at PE of 18.5x FY2013E earnings, which is below the historical trading multiple for L&T. We have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price works out to `1,607, which provides 23.0% upside from current levels. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.

April 2, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

Economic and Political News

Brent rises towards US$123 on tighter US gasoline market India's fiscal deficit during April to February was `4.94 lakh crore Need to tackle inflation for high growth: RBI No tax liability on P-Notes, says FM

Corporate News

ONGC ropes in ConocoPhillips for exploration CIL asked to provide 80% assured delivery to power firms NTPC to invest `17,000cr on two projects Unitech seeks injunction against Telenor on biz transfer

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

April 2, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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April 2, 2012