Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards

Emerging Markets Equity Research
20 October 20, 2011
Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Team
Adrian MowatAC Ben Laidler David Aserkoff Rajiv Batra Emerging Markets Latin America CEEMEA Emerging Markets adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com ben.m.laidler@jpmchase.com david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com (852) 2800 - 8599 (212) 622 - 5252 (44-20) 7325-1775 (91-22) 6157-3568 J.P.Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Country Recommendation
OW: ASEAN, Chile, Brazil UW: China, Mexico, Russia KEY TRADES: Hunker down: UW cyclicals/commodities /energy; OW quality/large caps/defensive earnings. China's demographic destiny: OW ASEAN, automation, consumption OW Quant earnings revision strategy,, Excessive monetary/inflation fears priced in: OW ASEAN, OW Brazil; COPOM Mini Carnival but be quick
Global Emerging Markets Research

Joyce Chang Global Emerging Markets joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com (1-212) 834-4203 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Key Changes
Market performance to October 19 2011 Year to date: MSCI Emerging Markets -19% underperforming MSCI World by 9.3% Year to date: MSCI EM Asia -17.3% outperforming MSCI Emerging Markets by 1.6% Top three markets YTD in US$: Indonesia, Philippines and Colombia Bottom three markets YTD in US$: Egypt, Argentina and Turkey Sector performance Year to date: MSCI EM Consumer Staples -3.6% outperforming MSCI Emerging Markets by 15.4% Year to date: MSCI EM Industrials -27.6% underperforming MSCI Emerging Markets by 8.7% Top three key market sectors YTD in US$: Korea Consumer Staples, Korea Consumer Discretionary and China Telecommunication Services Bottom three key market sectors YTD in US$: China Industrials, Brazil Energy and Brazil Materials Demand classification sector performance YTD: Global Consumer -11.2%, Domestic Demand -17.1%, Global Price Takers -22.8% and Global Capex -23.8% Headline inflation data published in the previous week China: Sep CPI 6.1%oya (J.P Morgan 6.2% , Consensus 6.1%) India: Sep WPI 9.7%oya (J.P Morgan 9.7% , Consensus 9.75%) South Africa: Sep CPI 5.7%oya (J.P Morgan 5.7% , Consensus 5.6%) Poland: Sep CPI 3.9%oya (J.P Morgan 4.1% , Consensus 4.1%) J.P. Morgan's revisions to 2011 GDP forecasts Positive: Asia ex Japan 7.2% [7.1%] J.P. Morgan's revisions to central bank policy rate forecasts Korea: Current 3.25%, Last Change 10 Jun 11 +25bp, Next Change 3Q 12 +25bp, Dec 11 3.25% [3.25%], Mar 12 3.25% [3.50%], Jun 12 3.25% [3.75%] lndonesia: Current 6.5%, Last Change 11 Oct 11 -25bp, Next Change 8 Dec 11 -25bp, Dec 11 6.25% [6.75%], Mar 12 6.0% [6.5%], Jun 12 6.0% [6.5%]
Table of Contents Regional Summary Market Performance Liquidity Monitor Monitoring Inflation Market Drivers Cross-section Earnings Growth Earnings Revisions Sector-Country PE Matrix Valuation Distribution Demand Classification Equities relative to Bonds Economic Momentum Policy Rates Forecast Currency Forecasts Credit Risk Emerging Market Balance Sheets Emerging Market in Perspective Emerging Capital Market Index Weightings
Page # 2 3 4 5 6 7 8,9,10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17,18 19 20 21 22 23
Please see Key Trades and Risks - Emerging Markets Equity Strategy, Mowat, et al, 20 September 2011, for our latest emerging markets equity strategy..
See page 24 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599,adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Summary: Regional and Countries Valuations

Global* USA Europe* Japan* Emerging Markets* EMF Asia EMF LatAm* EMF EMEA* China Brazil* Korea Taiwan South Africa* India Russia* Mexico* Malaysia Chile* Indonesia Turkey* Thailand Poland* Czech Republic* Egypt* Philippines Hungary* 19-Oct-11 MSCI Index 311 1,155 1,012 461 40,670 579 6,543,357 391 51 192,542 525 261 809 668 724 32,780 532 4,977 4,617 822,478 375 1,594 308 905 700 955 Hist.^ Trough 11.3 11.6 5.5 15.1 7.9 8.5 8.6 6.6 7.2 6.5 7.7 12.5 9.0 9.6 4.0 9.0 9.7 11.4 4.8 5.1 7.7 6.4 7.3 5.9 8.8 3.6 P/ EPS (Trend) 11.9 12.0 9.6 19.0 10.3 13.0 10.2 7.0 7.4 6.5 9.7 12.6 10.5 15.2 3.1 9.8 15.9 18.7 14.6 5.4 7.4 10.5 5.5 3.5 20.9 4.5 Current Trailing 13.0 14.2 11.3 16.5 10.0 10.7 11.2 7.6 8.9 9.5 9.6 13.3 11.5 13.5 5.0 16.1 14.9 15.4 14.7 10.0 11.3 9.0 10.2 9.4 14.8 8.2 P/E (x) 12m Fwd 10.3 11.5 9.1 13.5 9.0 9.5 10.1 6.9 7.7 8.8 8.4 11.1 9.6 11.6 4.8 14.0 12.8 13.6 12.2 9.1 9.5 8.7 9.9 8.0 13.0 7.2 2010 15.9 16.5 14.7 NM 11.1 11.6 12.0 9.1 10.1 10.0 10.5 12.3 13.7 15.3 6.3 k 16.3 15.9 17.0 9.4 13.1 10.9 9.1 9.7 15.7 8.4 Prospective 2011E 2012E 11.4 10.1 12.6 11.2 9.9 8.9 15.1 13.1 9.7 8.8 10.5 9.3 11.0 9.9 7.3 6.8 8.6 7.5 9.4 8.6 9.4 8.2 13.6 10.6 11.1 9.3 13.1 11.3 4.8 4.8 15.6 13.7 14.6 12.5 15.3 13.3 14.3 11.8 10.2 8.8 11.0 9.2 8.6 8.8 10.5 9.8 9.4 7.7 14.5 12.7 8.1 7.0 Hist.^ Peak 4.1 4.0 6.1 3.0 3.6 3.4 5.1 4.9 5.7 7.6 2.9 7.7 4.7 2.5 3.5 3.6 5.1 8.9 5.9 4.0 5.9 7.1 10.0 8.4 4.9 5.3 Div. Yield (%) Current Prospective Trailing 2011E 2012E 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 4.1 4.4 4.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.8 4.4 3.7 3.8 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.8 4.0 4.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.8 7.4 7.0 7.4 5.3 4.4 5.1 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.3 5.6 Hist.^ Trough 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 P/BV (x) Current Prospective Trailing 2011E 2012E 1.6 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.7 3.6 3.4 2.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 Earnings growth (%) 2009 4.6 7.3 -15.8 NM 9.5 31.1 7.4 -17.1 16.5 6.1 57.1 54.2 -23.6 13.1 -20.3 20.9 -19.9 5.2 10.6 6.0 35.1 -28.0 1.2 -30.8 14.7 -36.6 2010 25.2 14.9 14.6 NM 29.9 32.9 19.1 39.2 36.1 21.1 59.7 82.5 29.8 17.8 55.8 4.3 26.6 28.3 20.8 17.7 34.0 35.4 -1.3 9.0 36.3 7.3 2011E 11.9 13.8 12.5 51.4 14.5 11.1 8.6 23.6 17.3 5.9 11.5 -9.3 23.9 16.0 31.9 18.9 11.4 4.2 19.3 -7.6 19.4 27.0 -13.5 3.7 8.2 3.4 2012E 11.0 10.3 7.5 15.2 10.8 12.2 10.9 7.0 14.2 9.4 14.1 28.9 19.6 16.1 0.0 14.0 17.2 15.2 21.3 15.7 19.6 -2.5 7.1 21.0 14.3 15.5 2010 13.4 17.0 19.3 4.1 16.0 15.4 16.0 17.6 17.5 17.0 14.9 13.9 17.4 18.2 18.1 15.1 13.5 10.6 26.3 19.7 18.2 13.4 20.2 12.2 17.5 12.0
20 October 2011
ROE (%) 2011E 13.9 17.6 20.7 5.9 16.4 15.4 15.4 19.3 17.9 15.5 13.8 12.0 18.9 18.6 20.6 18.1 14.3 10.6 26.2 16.0 19.3 14.9 16.5 13.5 17.4 11.2 2012E 14.2 17.6 21.1 6.4 16.2 15.9 15.6 17.1 18.0 15.7 14.0 14.6 20.2 18.9 16.0 16.7 15.8 13.1 26.9 16.4 20.4 13.5 17.0 14.6 18.0 12.2
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates * Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. IBES Estimates are not available for Morocco, Jordan, Peru and Colombia. For all other markets, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest. Hist.^ refers to the historically lowest valuation of the MSCI indices since Jan 1991. Trough PE represents the lowest 12 month trailing PE. For dividend yield the highest values are taken to represent the best multiple. USA, Europe and Japan PE are I/B/E/S aggregate estimates. Japan Valuation estimates are for the financial year ending March P / EPS (Trend) uses the trend EPS for the indices calculated by the linear regression on the natural log of trailing EPS. For more, please refer to 'Mayday call for the shorts - Perspectives and Portfolios', 5 May 2009, Mowat et al. P / EPE (Trend)' is NM for indices where the modeled relationship is weak with a less than 0.50 R-square. The start dates China and Singapore models are modified to make them more relevant. Sector indices inputs have not been altered.
Updated as of 19 Oct 2011
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
20 October 2011
Market Performance: MSCI AC Performance by Regions, Countries and Sectors

Global Japan EMEA Korea China India YTD 2011 Philippines EMF Latin America Indonesia EMF Asia EMF Asia Malaysia Thailand North America Europe Taiwan EMF
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecoms Utilities Region / Country Benchmark Change vs dollar
-5.7% 2.0% -7.1% -19.6% 1.3% -13.8% -4.8% -21.2% -3.9% -7.1% -9.7%
0.2% 4.5% -5.1% -18.8% 3.3% -8.9% 0.6% -17.4% -3.4% 8.8% -4.9%
-11.8% -0.6% -3.6% -22.4% 2.0% -18.1% -8.3% -23.7% -5.5% -11.3% -11.9% -2.6%
-17.5% 2.3% -8.3% -21.8% -8.0% -16.1% -22.6% -17.9% -2.5% -44.0% -17.9% 5.7%
-5.2% -3.6% -19.9% -23.4% -18.7% -27.6% -18.2% -25.8% -7.6% -17.6% -19.0%
2.3% -0.3% -16.7% -23.2% -17.8% -29.1% -19.0% -21.5% 2.9% -19.7% -17.3%
-20.9% -3.3% -32.4% -21.7% 0.0% -18.4% 18.8% -31.4% -12.5% -13.2% -21.8%
-17.2% -16.1% -13.1% -25.6% -19.3% -28.5% -17.7% -23.4% -20.0% -21.9% -20.4%
2.3% -0.3% -16.7% -23.2% -17.8% -29.1% -19.0% -21.5% 2.9% -19.7% -17.3%
15.5% 20.4% -5.3% -23.2% 0.0% -24.4% -7.9% -18.7% -10.2% -22.2% -10.6% -1.1%
-7.0% 7.8% -9.0% -20.3% -32.5% -22.9% -7.7% 10.4% -18.9% -3.0%
-23.1% -13.7% -15.3% -31.7% -32.7% -41.3% -10.0% -34.9% 4.8% -9.5% -22.9% 3.6%
2.3% 4.1% -16.5% -15.3% -9.4% -31.6% -18.4% -30.0% -47.7% -26.7% -17.6% -9.0% Hungary
-3.6% -9.4% 38.5% -8.3% -7.8% 7.9% 10.9% -9.9% -5.1% -1.9% Czech Republic
-1.0% 18.0% -17.1% -7.9% -58.4% -15.0% 48.8% 13.8% -8.8% -2.5%
27.0% 15.6% -23.2% 13.1% 0.0% 1.4% -13.6% -10.4% -36.2% 1.5% 1.5% Morocco
0.3% -2.7% -13.5% -7.9% 1.4% -5.2% 1.3%
EMF Latin America
Argentina
Colombia
Mexico
EMEA
South Africa
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecoms Utilities Region / Country Benchmark Change vs dollar
-20.9% -3.3% -32.4% -21.7% 0.0% -18.4% 18.8% -31.4% -12.5% -13.2% -21.8%
-22.5% 4.2% -29.7% -17.8% 0.0% -12.6% 26.8% -27.9% 12.4% -5.0% -19.1% -6.4%
0.9% 9.2% -20.0% 10.8% -26.2% -9.3% -7.2% -8.4%
-15.8% -17.1% -16.0% -22.9% -14.9% 18.3% -9.2% -14.6% -8.5%
-30.4% -45.8%
-15.3%
-1.4% -3.1% -4.9%
-15.5% -30.8% -6.0%
-35.1% -29.1% 3.0%
-7.2% -17.0% -5.8% 0.3%
-21.3% -22.5% -12.6% -27.5% -18.9% -34.9% -17.8% -22.3% -26.2% -21.9% -20.5%
0.3% 8.0% 2.8% -3.7% -3.2% -12.0% -7.6% 1.1% -2.6% -17.8%
-27.4% -10.7% -26.1%
-9.9% -0.3% 0.0% -16.5% -19.4%
-11.2% -12.8% -10.5% -19.2% -12.3% -18.5% 4.9% -16.4% -16.3% -6.5%
-18.2% -30.5% -16.1%
0.0% -18.4%
0.0% -49.4% 0.0% -22.2% -27.2% -38.0% -2.9%
Egypt
Brazil
Chile
Peru
YTD 2011
Poland
Russia
Turkey
0.0% 0.0% -18.6%
-20.4% -37.4% 0.0% -17.9% -1.5%
-10.5% -7.4% 0.0% -12.9% -17.4%
-1.7% -21.5% -3.5%
1.0% -6.9% -8.8% 3.2%
0.0% -5.2% -11.7% 2.2%

Notes Source: Bloomberg, MSCI. Regional headings first sorted by regional weights in the MSCI EMF and then country headings from left to right by relative weights within the MSCI EMF Local currency movements against the dollar : appreciation / (depreciation) Country and sector cross sections in italic blue have outperformed their indices by more than 2%. Shaded areas have underperformed their indices by more than 2%.
3
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com 20 October 2011
Equity Markets Liquidity Monitor

Country Developed Markets US UK Japan Australia HK Singapore EM Asia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Thailand
EMEA
Stock Exchange NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX London Stk Exchange Tokyo Stk Exchange ASX HKSE SSE Shanghai & Shenzhen A BSE & NSE JSE KSE Bursa Malaysia PSE TWSE & OTC TSE RTS + MICEX + DR Johannesburg Stk Exchange Istanbul Stk Exchange Warsaw Stk Exchange Egyptian Exchange Bovespa + DR Mexico Stk Exchange + DR Santiago Stk Exchange Bogota Stk Exchange Lima Stk Exchange Argentina Stk Exchange
FF Mkt Cap (US$ Bn) 13,818 2,782 2,744 1,165 1,411 279 1,635 406 159 627 159 49 507 84 329 455 71 77 28 687 215 100 44 40 15
Daily Trading Value (US$ bn) 1 Wk Avg 3 MMA 10 Avg 37 5.6 13 3.8 5.4 0.9 14 2.5 0.6 4.9 0.5 0.1 3.2 0.7 3.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 na 6.6 0.9 0.14 0.09 0.01 0.13 49 7.5 16 5.5 6.7 1.3 15 3.0 0.7 6.3 0.6 0.1 4.3 1.0 3.4 2.0 1.4 0.7 na 6.2 1.1 0.18 0.09 0.03 0.11 45 7.8 16 4.5 6.5 1.2 26 4.1 0.5 4.7 0.4 0.1 4.4 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.9 1.1 0.20 0.08 0.02 0.10
Daily Velocity Ratio (%) 1 Wk Avg 3M Avg 10 Avg

40
China (LHS)
BRIC Trading value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

India Brazil Russia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.26 0.20 0.47 0.33 0.37 0.33 0.82 0.61 0.37 0.80 0.29 0.18 0.64 0.81 1.01 0.30 1.74 0.89 na 0.95 0.43 0.14 0.21 0.04 0.87
0.35 0.27 0.56 0.47 0.44 0.45 0.88 0.69 0.39 0.98 0.34 0.29 0.81 1.07 0.94 0.41 1.91 0.85 na 0.85 0.47 0.16 0.20 0.06 0.70
0.34 0.29 0.56 0.40 0.42 0.42 1.69 0.88 0.45 0.83 0.32 0.30 0.84 1.19 0.66 0.35 1.93 0.72 0.19 0.79 0.48 0.20 0.21 0.06 0.66
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 00 02 04 06 08 10
Korea, Taiwan, HK & Singapore Trading Value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

13 10 8 5 3 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Korea Taiwan HK Singapore
Russia South Africa Turkey Poland Egypt

LatAm
Emerging ASEAN Trading Value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines
Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru Argentina
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Notes: Market cap uses all exchanges covered by Bloomberg for a specific country and primary security of company only. The latest one week average is red (gray box in B&W, dark blue in blue scale) if less than 90% of the three month average or blue (solid black box in B&W, light blue in blue scale) if greater than 110% of the three month average. To calculate the free float we use the MSCI free float factor for all markets except for Hong Kong, Russia and South Africa where we calculate the free float for the Hong Kong Composite Index, MICEX, and JSE. Trading value calculation for Russia, Mexico and Brazil, includes value of depository receipts traded (DR) along with local stock exchange turnover. South Africa and Australia market capitalisation and trading value includes only local listed portion of dual listed stocks. Velocity Ratio = (Trading Value / Free float market cap) * 100
Updated as of 19 October 2011
20 October 2011
Monitoring Inflation: The real threat to EM equities

Country Developed Markets United States US core PPI US Unit Labor Cost Euro Area Japan Australia Hong Kong Singapore EM Asia China Korea Indonesia India India (CPI) Malaysia Philippines Thailand Taiwan Latin America Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Chile Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey CPI CPI IPCA CPI CPI CPI CPI NSA CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI na 4.5 (2) 3.0 (1) 3.0 (1) 2.0 (1) 3.0 (1) 2.0 (1) 3% 1.5 - 3.5% 6-7% 3-6% 6.5 (2) 10.0 6.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 1.8 3.9 4.1 8.6 5.1 6.1 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 9.8 7.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.0 3.1 4.4 8.2 5.3 6.7 9.9 7.3 3.7 3.1 3.7 3.3 1.8 3.6 3.9 7.2 5.7 6.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 10.3 4.3 1.7 3.6 5.7 3.2 (0.0) (1.6) (1.2) (0.8) 5.9 4.3 8.0 10.4 4.6 6.2 4.6 6.0 3.8 6.3 4.7 8.9 7.3 6.0 8.1 9.2 5.2 5.4 4.7 5.8 3.7 6.7 3.3 7.2 8.7 2.2 na 6.9 na 3.1 2.1 2.2 (0.1) 3.0 2.7 7.4 3.8 7.0 na 6.3 na 2.5 2.3 2.0 (0.4) 2.0 2.3 5.4 4.0 1.0 12.00 4.50 4.50 4.25 5.25 0.75 6.00 4.50 3.75 5.50 5.75 31 Aug 11 (-50bp) 29 Jul 11 (+25bp) 17 Jul 09 (-25bp) 12 May 11 (+25bp) 14 Jun 11 (+25bp) 6 May 10 (-25bp) 24 Jan 11 (+25bp) 8 Jun 11 (+25bp) 14 Sep 11 (+25bp) 18 Nov 10 (-50bp) 4 Aug 11 (-50bp) 19 Oct 11 (-50bp) On hold 2 Dec 11 (-25bp) Dec 11 (-25bp) 15 Nov 11 (-25bp) On hold 3Q 12 (-25bp) 1Q 12 (-25bp) 3Q 12 (+25bp) 2Q 12 (-50bp) Oct 12 (+25bp) CPI CPI CPI WPI CPI Ind. Workers CPI CPI CPI CPI 4.0% 3.0 (1) 4 - 6% 7.0% na na 3-5% 3.5 - 5.5 1.85 5.4 4.1 5.5 9.6 12.0 3.0 4.7 3.7 1.6 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 6.2 5.3 4.8 9.8 8.4 3.4 4.7 4.3 1.3 6.1 4.3 4.6 9.7 9.0 3.3 4.8 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 (0.3) 0.1 5.3 6.8 7.8 7.2 15.8 2.7 1.3 1.1 (0.6) 13.4 11.4 5.8 9.6 na 4.9 3.7 8.4 1.6 13.4 4.6 5.3 9.2 na 4.6 3.9 8.8 1.9 2.5 3.9 5.1 9.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 1.2 1.3 3.4 5.4 5.1 2.9 2.7 1.8 (1.2) 6.56 3.25 6.50 8.25 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88 6 Jul 11 (+25bp) 10 Jun 11 (+25bp) 11 Oct 11 (-25bp) 16 Sep 11 (+25bp) 5 May 11 (+25bp) 5 May 11 (+25bp) 24 Aug 11 (+25bp) 30 Jun 11 (+12.5bp) 4Q 12 (+25bp) 3Q 12 (+25bp) 8 Dec 11 (-25bp) 25 Oct 11 (+25bp) On hold On hold On hold On hold Chained CPI Core PPI SA LC Nonfarm CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI na na na Under 2% na 2-3 na 2-3% 3.1 na na 2.7 -0.2 3.6 5.2 5.3 Sep-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 3.8 2.5 1.3 2.5 0.2 3.3 7.9 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.9 3.0 0.2 3.6 5.7 5.7 0.3 0.2 NA 0.8 0.2 NA (2.1) 0.7 4.8 3.0 3.4 1.4 0.0 3.7 (7.0) 8.1 4.7 2.6 0.2 4.3 (11.0) 3.1 4.6 2.8 (0.2) 6.1 (10.4) 3.0 2.0 1.6 (0.5) na 7.4 4.6 2.1 0.9 (1.2) na 3.9 5.1 0.13 1.50 0.05 4.75 0.50 16 Dec 08 (-87.5bp) 7 Jul 11 (+25bp) 5 Oct 10 (-5bp) 2 Nov 10 (+25bp) 17 Dec 08 (-100bp) On hold 3 Nov 11 (-25bp) On hold On hold On hold Inflation Rate CB Inflation JPM f'cast CPI (YoY) CPI (YoY) Target (%) CY2011 Date Previous Latest CPI (%) MoM 3M ann Food CPI (YoY) Previous Latest Core CPI (%) YoY 3M ann Policy Rate Current Policy Rate Last Change Policy Rate Next Change
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Source: J.P. Morgan Economics, Bloomberg. Note: Current inflation data for countries which outside/above target range is highlighted. MoM and 3 month annualised data is calculated from inflation indices. * under review # Countries where central banks target is not available. We have given J.P. Morgan Economic estimates. India's WPI forecast is for end March 2011; RBI forecasts inflation not target. In case of Taiwan, Estimate by DGBAS,CB targets M2 growth (2.5-6.5% for 2011)
Outlook: Market Drivers

Country Global US Europe UK Japan Australia Hong Kong Singapore
Global and developed market drivers
Positive Record low interest rate, Healthy corporate balance sheets, Lower oil prices Interest rates low for long, strong corporate profits, low corporate bond yields Commodity rollover to support profits, stronger corporate activity in terms of dividends & buybacks, cheap valuation Exposure to Global recovery, weak currency Leveraged to global industrial production cycle, post earthquake rebuild spending, low valuations relative to history Fiscal flexibility, resilient economy Record low mortgage rates, Leveraged to a recovery in global trade and financial services
Negative Slowing global growth, European stress, US Debt Downgrade Debt Downgrade, Fiscal drag, Unemployment Fiscal and sovereign debt situation remains uncertain Fiscal drag on growth, rising inflation Strong Yen, earthquake cost adding to fiscal deficit Overheating risk, rising short rates with high debt levels, exposure to bulk commodity price correction Property tightening measures, normalization of US interest rate policy, rapid rise in cost of living, asset inflation story is consensus Slowing growth, increasing volatility of EPS given greater dominance of global price-takers in market composition
Strong hub for intra-Asia growth, significant flexibility around monetary policy, safe haven status to underpin growth in higher-value added sectors in the long-term Source: J.P. Morgan.
Country China Brazil Korea Taiwan
Emerging Market Drivers
Positive RMB appreciation, soft-landing of the economy, rebalancing from fixed investment to consumption good for long term sustainable growth, undemanding valuations First among BRICs to cut rates, trough level valuations and resilient earnings, closed economy and large state, resilient consumption. Domestic economy relatively holding up well compared to US/Europe, limited financial contagion risks from the Euro zone Coming 7th cross strait talk in 4Q11, investment positioning potentially to change in 1H12 (consensus UW position among FIs), sustained private consumption especially in discretionary segment Solid earnings growth outlook; benign SA rate outlook; SA equities underowned by foreign and domestic investors Correction in global commodity prices, relatively robust economic and earnings growth outlook Cheap multiples, positive secular outlook, low debt/output Underpenetrated credit sector, defensive market, undervalued mexican peso on REER Positive sound bites from ETP, domestic infrastructure and oil and gas spending, M&A, consensus UW Recovery in manufacturing competitiveness, improving terms of trade, strong consumption, inflation threat abating Foreigners underweight. Monetary easing Policy announcement, rising domestic and foreign investment cycles Defensive; Cheap on a forward PE basis, even if you assume more downgrades.
Negative Domestic liquidity remains tight, further measures designed to lower property prices, near-term economic slowdown may bring about earnings downgrades, Policy to boost household income as a share of GDP will be at the expense of profits, high growth sectors are small percentage of the index Commodity driven market, capital controls, FX volatility Currency volatility, slowdown in global demands, inflationary pressure NTD depreciation could benefit exporter but also means net foreign outflow, sluggish demand in Europe/the US hurting export sectors, companies with exposure in China may be affected by credit tightening and FAI slowdown in China High beta currency; policy paralysis
South Africa
India Russia Mexico Malaysia Indonesia Turkey Thailand Poland Czech Republic Philippines
Policy paralysis, High and sticky inflation, currenct account deficit Exposure to global macroeconomic risk, political risk, increased dependency on commodity prices, budget deficit Fading US macro momentum, anti trust reform bill, high valuations, overstated earnings Political uncertainties, policy flip flops, runway inflation major names well owned and discovered, bureaucratic and legislative reform momentum, infrastructure bottlenecks, subsidies, carry trade reversing with capital outflows, narrowing CA surplus Valuations fair not cheap. FX volatility Weaker than anticipated external demand, Inflation concerns/up-shift in the interest rate cycle Weak FX; -zone recession Sluggish earnings growth, -zone recession Global economic slowdown, fiscal deficit becoming uncontrolled Ongoing governance risks. -zone recession 6 Updated as of 19 Oct 2011
Low rates Improved confidence and steady remittances growth leading to stronger consumption, improved fiscal position resulting in overdue investment spending, underowned market. Hungary Low macro expectations. Source: J.P. Morgan.
Profit Outlook: Earnings Forecasts Matrix for Countries and Sectors

EM Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Weight (%) 100.0 8.3 7.6 13.9 23.9 1.1 6.6 12.9 13.9 8.5 3.5 Median 2011 J.P. Morgan 2012 Median 15.3 15.9 10.8 23.7 15.6 19.2 16.6 1.8 21.6 4.9 7.5 EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 14.5 10.8 16.7 16.8 16.4 18.2 23.0 1.3 20.2 12.2 11.7 17.8 1.6 12.9 -11.1 17.5 25.8 11.7 7.7 10.7 0.9 14.8 China Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Weight (%) 100.0 5.8 5.7 18.8 33.4 0.9 7.0 6.3 5.8 14.3 2.0 Median 19.5 20.2 21.4 16.5 21.9 30.4 11.1 31.8 27.7 12.6 4.9 2011 17.3 2.4 16.4 21.3 19.1 27.9 2.9 29.3 42.3 8.9 -0.6 J.P. Morgan 2012 14.2 22.0 23.3 -1.7 20.9 31.2 12.6 19.6 19.5 6.9 25.8 Median 18.3 17.3 18.5 16.5 19.4 23.5 10.9 28.2 27.7 15.2 8.6 EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 13.6 12.5 1.7 19.1 14.9 22.4 16.9 5.1 15.3 14.6 17.8 23.4 -10.9 14.9 24.7 19.9 47.2 13.9 7.2 7.3 10.9 18.9 India Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Weight (%) 100 8.3 7.3 13.1 27.7 4.6 7.1 16.9 9.7 0.3 4.9 Median 17.6 9.2 19.6 13.6 21.9 19.4 22.0 23.0 13.1 -36.9 4.0 2011 16.0 9.0 19.4 14.9 23.5 23.2 25.0 17.0 7.8 -36.9 4.5 J.P. Morgan 2012 16.1 9.0 17.1 14.1 22.2 14.6 16.7 17.6 12.5 63.2 16.2
20 October 2011
Median 17.6 15.1 19.1 13.2 18.7 19.4 21.4 16.5 12.7 28.4 12.3
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 17.6 11.0 11.0 9.0 17.7 16.3 9.4 9.8 29.9 5.6 23.2 14.6 20.5 15.6 15.7 15.1 11.9 14.0 28.4 30.9 14.1 10.7
Indonesia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 16.1 12.8 11.0 32.6 1.8 4.6 0.0 7.3 10.3 3.5 Median 18.9 10.9 19.8 93.7 14.0 13.7 29.9 NA 8.2 19.2 10.5 2011 19.3 10.9 17.2 84.2 15.3 13.7 29.9 NA 5.8 7.0 10.5
J.P. Morgan 2012 21.3 17.3 17.9 34.3 24.8 64.0 28.7 NA 10.1 9.2 13.7
Median 16.7 19.3 16.7 101.5 14.1 16.0 30.1 NA 10.6 19.2 8.9
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 20.4 15.7 19.3 13.3 15.2 12.1 88.0 30.9 14.3 16.2 16.0 16.4 30.1 18.8 NA NA 8.6 11.0 7.0 9.2 8.9 5.3
Korea Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 18.8 4.8 3.0 15.0 0.7 14.4 28.0 12.9 1.3 1.2 Median 17.8 12.1 15.5 76.1 16.4 14.3 23.5 -4.8 28.2 14.7 78.0 2011 11.5 22.4 -13.6 64.0 63.8 11.9 15.0 -23.5 19.6 -7.4 -850.2
J.P. Morgan 2012 14.1 16.9 11.7 -8.8 4.8 20.1 21.3 22.5 9.9 3.1 -94.1
Median 19.1 13.1 5.0 100.6 17.3 14.3 22.5 -3.5 49.8 14.7 49.1
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 15.8 12.2 30.5 15.9 -15.5 14.1 86.3 3.3 66.3 -2.3 11.9 20.1 8.6 14.8 -17.6 20.6 20.9 10.9 -7.4 3.1 -435.4 NM
Malaysia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 11.8 11.8 1.2 31.9 0.0 17.9 0.0 5.0 11.2 9.3 Median 10.9 19.3 16.5 7.2 10.9 NA 30.3 NA 8.6 4.2 0.6 2011 11.4 23.1 15.6 7.2 11.2 NA 34.3 NA 34.0 2.4 -28.4
J.P. Morgan 2012 17.2 15.4 10.0 8.7 17.7 NA 15.2 NA 25.0 9.3 36.2
Median 10.0 7.6 10.8 7.2 10.9 NA 21.2 NA 8.6 3.8 -0.3
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 7.3 13.1 2.0 12.2 11.3 4.8 7.2 8.7 10.0 9.5 NA NA 25.8 16.5 NA NA 34.0 25.0 2.1 7.8 -22.7 34.2
Philippines Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 12.2 18.1 Median 9.8 6.0 NA NA 17.8 NA 8.6 NA NA 1.7 79.1 2011 8.2 6.0 NA NA 12.7 NA 0.6 NA NA 0.0 19.5
J.P. Morgan 2012 14.3 17.5 NA NA 22.6 NA 11.2 NA NA 2.1 12.6
Median 11.6 6.0 NA NA 13.8 NA 13.4 NA NA 1.7 57.1
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 7.4 12.6 6.0 17.5 NA NA NA NA 11.2 17.1 NA NA 2.2 12.0 NA NA NA NA 0.0 2.1 15.7 13.7
Taiwan Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 3.8 2.2 0.9 15.4 0.0 3.5 54.0 14.9 5.4 0.0 Median 12.1 9.8 10.1 25.5 23.4 NA -4.1 1.8 19.3 -0.5 NA 2011 -9.3 0.7 -0.9 25.5 26.9 NA -29.2 -20.8 5.8 14.4 NA
J.P. Morgan 2012 28.9 19.1 13.6 13.3 8.9 NA 20.9 44.9 12.1 6.5 NA
Median 8.0 7.1 5.9 -1.3 32.1 NA -51.2 -7.9 12.0 -0.5 NA
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 -14.4 25.0 -2.3 19.6 -3.1 10.7 -1.3 9.2 48.3 -0.9 NA NA -50.8 25.5 -29.6 43.4 1.4 13.4 14.4 6.5 NA NA
Thailand Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 1.9 10.2 31.5 35.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 12.7 6.0 1.5 Median 21.2 22.7 16.7 21.2 34.0 NA -47.1 NA 52.9 19.0 -4.6 2011 19.4 22.7 18.3 16.0 32.1 NA -47.1 NA 21.3 19.0 -4.6
J.P. Morgan 2012 19.6 10.2 77.4 16.9 12.6 NA 91.5 NA 22.5 12.1 45.4
Median 24.1 16.2 18.8 25.5 31.5 NA -47.1 NA 52.9 19.0 -19.0
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 21.1 11.9 16.2 15.5 17.1 13.9 14.6 8.5 33.9 10.3 NA NA -47.1 91.5 NA NA 38.5 15.9 19.0 12.1 -19.0 59.1
South Africa Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 13.6 6.3 9.8 24.6 2.6 4.3 0.0 25.2 13.6 0.0 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median 19.5 20.0 19.5 16.3 12.7 19.9 17.8 NA 41.1 8.2 NA
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 23.9 19.6 19.7 17.9 15.6 17.1 16.3 3.2 12.5 15.2 25.8 15.5 23.3 17.8 NA NA 47.2 36.6 33.0 15.6 NA NA
Brazil Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 4.9 11.4 20.2 25.1 0.9 3.4 2.8 21.6 3.7 5.9 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median 8.5 16.2 6.8 -3.9 12.9 12.3 22.6 -6.2 -10.2 -64.6 4.5
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 5.9 9.4 11.6 32.3 25.8 24.0 -20.1 6.3 9.8 12.8 -2.7 44.6 16.1 27.2 -11.1 6.5 30.6 0.6 -40.2 24.0 -2.4 1.1
Mexico Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 10.3 28.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 15.9 34.5 0.0 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median 12.6 19.8 2.9 NA 8.6 NA -20.2 NA 43.9 3.9 NA
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 18.9 14.0 45.5 0.6 8.0 18.7 NA NA 9.7 24.1 NA NA 12.6 0.5 NA NA 56.7 19.7 11.1 11.8 NA NA
Russia Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 0.0 2.1 57.8 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 6.9 3.9 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median 45.6 NA 9.7 30.2 55.2 NA NA NA 80.1 97.3 NM
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 31.9 0.0 NA NA 9.7 36.0 29.8 -3.9 56.5 6.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA 26.1 23.2 42.9 19.0 NM NM
Poland Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 3.4 1.9 12.9 42.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 16.5 7.8 12.8 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median 15.7 131.0 7.1 -32.9 13.9 NA NA -18.2 65.6 1435.0 22.8
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 27.0 -2.5 16.2 34.2 7.1 5.4 -25.2 0.0 12.8 14.9 NA NA NA NA -18.2 5.3 58.7 -20.6 1435.0 -27.3 30.5 5.0
Turkey Total Market Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
Weight (%) 100.0 3.2 12.5 5.8 53.9 0.0 9.5 0.0 2.2 12.8 0.0 Median 2011 -
J.P. Morgan 2012 -
Median -2.7 14.2 7.4 32.8 -8.3 NA 20.9 NA -14.6 -19.6 NA
EPS Growth Consensus 2011 2012 -7.6 15.7 13.2 8.5 8.3 22.8 32.8 17.4 -8.8 10.3 NA NA -6.7 40.5 NA NA -14.6 13.2 -25.0 27.4 NA NA Updated as of 19 Oct 2011
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Average earnings growth calculated based on earnings aggregate of MSCI constituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by JPMorgan under J.P. Morgan forecasts calculation. Median numbers are for the year 2011.
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
20 October 2011
Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2011 and 2012)

World 130 2012 120 110 100 90 Feb-10 2 140 130 120 2011 110 100 90 Feb-10 2011 2012 Emerging Markets (EM) 2 140 130 120 110 100 90 Feb-10 90 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Korea 130 120 110 100 90 Feb-10 2012 2011 2 Aug-11 2011 100 2012 110 2011 EM Asia 2 120 EM Europe 2012 2
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11 China
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11 Brazil
Aug-11
EM Latin America 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Feb-10

AR I
140 2012 2012 130 120 2011 2011 110 100 Aug-10
il
145 135 125 115 105 95 85 Feb-10 Aug-10

i
2012 2011
Feb-11
Aug-11
M l k i T
90 Feb-10 22 22
Aug-10
Feb-11
Th lil dd P
Aug-11 20 20
22
I Hd
Feb-11 India
Aug-11
C Phili R i h
bli
Aug-10
Feb-11 Russia
Chil
Aug-11
Taiwan 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Feb-10 85 Feb-10 2011 115 2012 125
South Africa 2012 2 125
2 2 2012
130 120 110 2012
115
105 2011 95
105
2011 100
2011
95
90 80 Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
85 Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Source: I/B/E/S Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2010 for ease of comparison. These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items. 8
2
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
20 October 2011
Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2011 and 2012)

Mexico 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Feb-10 2 130 120 2012 110 100 90 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 80 Feb-10 2011 110 100 90 Feb-10 2011 2012 Turkey 130 120 2012 Malaysia 2 140 130 120 110 100 Aug-10 Feb-11 Thailand 135 125 115 2011 105 95 Feb-10
M l k i T
Chile 2 2012
2011
2011
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-11
90 Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11 Poland
Aug-11
Indonesia 135 125 115 2011 105 95 Feb-10 2012
Philippines 135 125 115 2011
140 2012 130 120 110 100 2011
2012
2012
105 95 Feb-10
I Hd
Aug-10
AR I il
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Th lil dd P
Aug-10
i
Feb-11
Aug-11
C Phili R i h
bli
90 Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Chil
Aug-11
Czech. Republic 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Feb-10 90 2011 80 70 Feb-10 2012 120 110 100
Hungary
2 2012
2011
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
9 Source: I/B/E/S Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2010 for ease of comparison. These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items. Countries earnings revisions are in local currencies term whereas APxJ regions earnings revisions is in US $ term
20 October 2011
Monitoring the Trend in Sector EPS Forecasts (2011 and 2012)

Emerging Markets 130 120 110 100 90 Feb 10 2011 2012 145 2012 130 2011 Consumer Discretionary 130 120 110 100 90 Feb 10 2012 Consumer Staples 130 120 2011 110 100 90 Feb 10 2012 Energy
115
2011
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
100 Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Financials 130 120 110 100 90 Feb 10 2011 2012 165 150 135 120 105 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 90 Feb 10 2012
Health Care 150 135 120 2011 105 90 Feb 10
Industrials 2012 130 120 110 100 2011 90 80 70 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 60 Feb 10
Information Technology 2012
2011
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Materials 170 150 130 110 90 Feb 10 2011 2012 120 110 100 90 80 Feb 10
Telecom 2012 110 100 90 2011 80 70 60 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 50 Feb 10 2011
Utilities
2012
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
Source: I/B/E/S
Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2010 for ease of comparison. These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items. Sector earnings revisions are in US$ 10
20 October 2011
Value: PE Matrix for Countries and Sectors

EMF LATAM* EMF EMEA* 12-month forward PE Philippines EMF Asia* Emerging Markets* Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Taiwan Korea China USA* India
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Market Aggregate Sector Neutral**
12.9 13.5 10.4 9.6 10.9 11.7 11.6 10.7 14.5 13.9 11.5 11.2
10.6 17.4 5.9 8.2 15.7 9.8 11.7 7.7 11.3 10.5 9.0 9.0
11.2 15.3 4.3 8.1 12.6 9.1 9.3 7.9 10.4 8.9 6.9 8.0
12.3 18.4 8.5 9.5 18.2 14.9 14.4 7.1 11.0 10.2 10.1 10.3
10.0 15.5 8.2 8.0 16.9 9.5 12.5 8.0 11.8 12.0 9.5 9.5
8.6 13.9 7.3 6.5 18.0 7.9 10.4 7.1 7.5 NA 8.4 7.9
14.0 18.1 14.7 11.6 NA 9.6 10.9 10.3 15.5 NA 11.1 12.2
Czech Republic*
10.6 17.6 8.0 5.8 15.4 6.9 14.6 6.8 10.9 11.0 7.7 8.2
10.8 24.5 10.6 13.0 16.1 6.3 17.4 7.4 8.2 12.1 11.6 10.8
11.9 14.7 16.8 11.5 NA 13.4 NA 12.5 16.7 13.0 12.8 13.0
15.0 16.4 9.0 12.2 20.5 12.7 NA 11.5 11.4 8.4 12.2 11.7
17.8 21.1 7.5 9.6 NA 7.1 NA 9.4 14.0 13.6 9.5 10.4
24.8 NA NA 14.3 NA 12.2 NA NA 10.7 12.3 13.0 10.7
South Africa*
EMF LATAM*
EMF EMEA*
Hungary*
Mexico*
Poland*
Russia*
Turkey*
Brazil*
12-month forward PE
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Market Aggregate Sector Neutral**
11.2 15.3 4.3 8.1 12.6 9.1 9.3 7.9 10.4 8.9 6.9 8.0
NA 19.6 3.8 5.7 NA NA NA 8.0 8.3 9.5 4.8 7.2
11.2 14.6 7.9 9.3 12.0 9.3 NA 8.6 10.9 NA 9.6 9.8
17.1 6.1 9.8 10.6 NA NA 9.3 4.9 18.2 8.3 8.7 8.9
7.9 19.8 8.7 8.0 NA 8.9 NA 7.7 10.5 NA 9.1 9.2
NA NA 6.4 5.7 14.7 NA NA NA 11.2 NA 7.2 8.1
NM NA NA 10.1 NA NA NA NA 14.1 8.9 9.9 9.5
12.3 18.4 8.5 9.5 18.2 14.9 14.4 7.1 11.0 10.2 10.1 10.3
9.2 17.2 8.3 8.9 18.2 15.9 14.4 5.5 10.0 8.9 8.8 9.2
21.2 20.3 NA 12.1 NA 13.3 NA 12.1 11.4 NA 14.0 11.2
20.9 17.0 NA 11.1 NA 14.6 NA 13.6 10.9 12.6 13.6 11.1
Source: IBES, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: PEs are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and IBES estimates for the rest. * Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. IBES Estimates are not available for Morocco, Jordan, Peru and Colombia. **Sector neutral PE are calculated by using sector weights of MSCI EM and sector PE of respective markets (MSCI EM sector PE used where country sector does not exist)
11
Chile*
20 October 2011
Value: Distribution Tables for PE, PBR, DY and RoE

2011E: Price to Earnings Ratio (x) Weighted Average Min Global* 11.4 0.0 USA* 12.6 2.9 Europe* 9.9 0.0 Japan* 15.1 3.5 Emerging Markets* 9.7 1.5 China 8.6 2.1 Brazil* 9.4 3.6 Korea 9.4 4.0 Taiwan 13.6 4.1 South Africa* 11.1 6.8 India 13.1 2.5 Russia* 4.8 1.5 Mexico* 15.6 8.4 Malaysia 14.6 9.6 Chile* 15.3 9.2 Indonesia 14.3 6.9 Turkey* 10.2 6.9 Thailand 11.0 7.0 Poland* 8.6 3.8 Czech Republic* 10.5 9.4 Egypt* 9.4 5.9 Philippines 14.5 10.5 Hungary* 8.1 6.5 2011E: Dividend Yield (%)
Global* USA* Europe* Japan* Emerging Markets* China Brazil* Korea Taiwan South Africa* India Russia* Mexico* Malaysia Chile* Indonesia Turkey* Thailand Poland* Czech Republic* Egypt* Philippines Hungary* 3.0 2.2 4.4 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.1 1.3 4.8 4.0 1.8 3.1 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.8 5.1 7.0 4.4 3.1 4.3 Lower 9.5 10.6 8.8 10.0 8.2 6.4 9.0 6.6 9.4 9.4 8.9 4.7 13.5 12.8 12.8 11.2 8.1 9.0 8.2 10.2 7.6 11.8 7.0 Quartiles Median 12.4 13.7 11.2 12.4 11.8 8.7 13.1 9.1 12.2 11.3 14.9 6.3 18.6 15.0 13.9 12.8 8.9 11.1 11.1 11.0 9.0 14.7 9.5 Higher 16.3 17.5 14.6 16.4 16.2 14.3 20.0 13.9 15.8 13.6 18.5 9.8 22.4 18.7 17.7 17.0 13.9 14.0 13.7 12.7 12.9 15.9 12.4 Max 298.3 153.6 241.6 298.3 128.1 55.8 33.7 127.6 52.5 33.7 128.1 24.9 63.8 30.5 51.4 32.4 28.5 42.7 73.6 14.5 26.7 29.3 14.1
2011E: Price to Book Value Ratio (x) Weighted Average Min Global* 1.6 0.1 USA* 2.0 0.2 Europe* 1.4 0.1 Japan* 1.0 0.4 Emerging Markets* 1.5 0.1 China 1.5 0.1 Brazil* 1.4 0.3 Korea 1.3 0.3 Taiwan 1.6 0.4 South Africa* 2.0 0.5 India 2.4 0.3 Russia* 0.9 0.4 Mexico* 2.6 0.2 Malaysia 2.1 1.0 Chile* 1.7 1.0 Indonesia 3.6 1.4 Turkey* 1.6 0.8 Thailand 2.1 0.6 Poland* 1.2 0.4 Czech Republic* 1.7 1.6 Egypt* 1.2 0.3 Philippines 2.5 1.2 Hungary* 0.9 0.7 2011E: Return on Equity (%)
Lower 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 2.3 1.7 1.6 2.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.7 0.8 1.8 0.9
Quartiles Median 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.0 2.9 2.0 2.4 3.5 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.3 2.8 1.0
Higher 2.5 3.2 2.5 1.2 2.6 2.0 3.3 1.8 2.0 3.2 3.8 1.6 3.9 2.7 2.8 4.5 2.0 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 1.1
Max 67.8 67.8 20.2 7.0 32.3 9.8 18.4 9.7 11.3 12.7 22.3 7.8 32.3 27.0 3.9 24.5 13.3 11.2 3.6 1.8 2.8 4.8 1.4
Weighted Average
Min
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.4 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.9 2.0
Lower
1.4 0.1 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 0.5 2.3 2.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.2 3.2 0.5 6.5 2.9 1.5 3.6
Quartiles Median
2.6 1.6 3.8 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 1.3 4.4 4.3 1.6 2.7 1.6 3.2 3.5 2.4 2.2 3.7 2.9 6.5 4.2 2.3 4.2
Higher
4.2 3.0 5.5 2.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 2.5 6.3 5.1 2.2 3.8 3.3 4.3 4.8 3.4 3.1 4.1 5.4 8.0 5.6 3.6 5.7
22.6 15.8 14.9 6.2 22.6 22.6 16.3 6.7 12.9 9.6 11.0 7.9 5.9 7.4 15.0 7.9 8.4 6.9 10.2 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.9
Max
Global* USA* Europe* Japan* Emerging Markets* China Brazil* Korea Taiwan South Africa* India Russia* Mexico* Malaysia Chile* Indonesia Turkey* Thailand Poland* Czech Republic* Egypt* Philippines Hungary*
Weighted Average
13.4 17.0 19.3 4.1 16.0 17.5 17.0 14.9 13.9 17.4 18.2 18.1 15.1 13.5 10.6 26.3 19.7 18.2 13.4 20.2 12.2 17.5 12.0
-21.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 -21.0 1.6 -12.0 0.6 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 -21.0 5.1 2.5 6.5 -2.0 5.1 0.8 12.6 3.4 8.3 8.8
Min
Lower
8.1 9.5 8.5 5.4 10.3 11.0 8.1 9.3 7.7 11.8 13.2 13.0 11.9 10.5 10.6 20.2 12.1 12.2 7.7 14.3 7.1 12.9 9.4
Quartiles Median
13.2 15.1 13.6 7.5 14.8 15.8 12.6 12.8 12.2 18.3 17.6 17.7 15.4 15.1 12.9 24.3 13.6 17.6 11.0 16.0 10.7 15.6 9.9
Higher
19.6 21.5 19.6 10.3 21.1 20.6 22.0 19.0 19.6 27.8 22.7 22.8 29.9 16.9 17.8 28.0 16.8 23.1 17.1 16.7 17.6 22.1 11.3
253.6 234.8 253.6 39.4 137.2 49.3 129.1 43.2 50.2 96.7 75.8 40.4 59.7 143.3 25.8 75.8 46.9 60.3 37.9 17.5 21.0 40.6 14.6
Max
Source: Datastream, IBES, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Weighted average numbers based on aggregate of MSCI constituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by J.P. Morgan. * only consensus numbers are used
12
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com 20 October 2011
Demand Classification: MSCI Emerging Markets Index Composition by Country

Global Capex Global Price Takers
EM Domestic Demand Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index 400
Global Consumer
Domestic Demand
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Thailand Asia Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Morocco Poland Russia South Africa Turkey EMEA Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru LatAm Total
Total
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan 90
Relative to EM (rhs)
Absolute (lhs)
100 90 80 70 60 50
12.3 4.3 2.5 5.9 2.7 0.7 3.5 1.2 33.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.7 4.9 1.3 10.1 8.9 1.5 0.6 4.0 0.2 15.2 58.5
0.4 1.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7.5
0.2 0.0 0.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
3.6 1.8 0.4 2.2 0.7 0.0 1.6 0.6 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 4.7 2.7 0.0 7.9 6.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 7.3 26.1
16.6 7.4 3.0 15.1 3.4 0.7 11.1 1.8 59.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.6 6.5 7.6 1.4 18.2 14.9 1.7 0.9 4.7 0.6 22.8 100.0
Oct 96
Jul 03
Apr 10
40
EM Global Capex Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-90 Apr-99 Jul-08
Absolute (lhs)
500 420 340 260 180 100 20 -60
EM Global Consumer Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index 840 720 600 480 360 240 120 0 Jan-90 Oct-96 Jul-03 Apr-10
Absolute (lhs)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
EM Global Price Taker Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index 450 380 310 240 170 100 30 -40 Jan-90 Oct-96 Jul-03 Apr-10
Absolute (lhs)
115 100 85 70 55 40 25 10
Source: Datastream, MSCI. J.P. Morgan. MSCI emerging markets companies have been classified in five categories. Of the five categories, Global Consumer/Capex (Tech-Hardware) weighting equally divided between Global consumer and Global Capex. The above table contains MSCI free float market capitalization as a percentage of MSCI emerging markets Charts show the relative absolute and relative performance of emerging markets sectors by demand classification. 13
Updated as of 19-Oct-11
20 October 2011
Value: Equities relative to Bonds

Relative outperformance of equities versus bonds by country (%) Country Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Hungary India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Peru Poland Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey 1-month
-4.6 2.2 -4.3 -1.8 7.5 6.1 0.7 0.1 2.5 -1.2 -9.7 1.5 -5.6 0.0 -4.8 -0.5
3-month
-14.3 -11.0 -21.1 -4.4 -12.0 -22.2 -8.7 -13.1 -8.0 -5.5 -9.9 -15.4 -20.4 -2.8 -13.9 -6.7
6-month
-22.7 -10.1 -25.8 4.6 -11.6 -35.5 -11.9 -6.8 -6.1 -4.9 -3.7 -19.9 -25.8 -0.2 -15.1 -13.2
12-month
-34.7 -12.0 -25.0 -17.9 -3.8 -36.7 -20.4 -12.5 -3.8 -2.7 -25.6 -13.9 -13.1 -5.0 -2.3 -26.2
36-month
32.3 64.2 48.8 105.5 17.4 18.6 69.5 137.9 71.0 67.4 155.2 37.6 67.3 60.6 108.0 103.8
36-month annualised
9.8 18.0 14.2 27.1 5.5 5.8 19.2 33.5 19.6 18.7 36.7 11.2 18.7 17.1 27.7 26.8
J.P. Morgan's GBI - EM bond indices track local currency government bonds issued by emerging economies. The indices are easily replicable and represent the local bond portfolio that can be accessed by an international investor. For more information on these indices please visit www.morganmarkets.com or contact Gloria Kim at gloria.m.kim@jpmorgan.com The table shows the difference between the MSCI equity benchmark returns in local currency and the GBI - EM benchmark returns for each country. Positive numbers indicate outperformance by equities.
Country Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Hungary India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Peru Poland Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey
Relative value of equities versus bonds by country Bond Maturity Bond Yield To Generic 10 years Earnings Yield (years) Maturity
12.6 4.8 3.8 7.6 3.3 7.8 8.8 6.3 3.7 6.3 6.8 5.8 5.0 8.2 3.5 8.9 11.2 5.3 6.6 9.4 6.4 4.6 7.4 12.0 4.9 9.3 13.9 4.5 3.3 9.5 7.1 2.7 8.8 2.9 3.8 6.0 3.5 6.9 8.4 8.1 3.6 7.0 6.8 5.4 6.7 8.3 3.9 9.2 11.4 7.3 12.9 5.7 10.1 13.9 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.1 8.7 11.4 21.0 10.4 10.5 11.0
Dividend Yield
4.5 3.3 4.3 2.6 7.3 5.3 1.9 3.3 3.6 3.0 1.9 5.7 3.4 4.6 4.3 3.5
DDM Implied Growth

12.9 7.1 5.2 9.0 0.6 8.3 11.5 8.9 5.3 8.5 8.9 4.8 8.3 9.5 4.9 9.7
For 'DDM Implied Growth', we use a dividend discount model based on expected payout ratios for 2008 (except Colombia and Peru where we use current trailing payout ratio) Perpetual Implied Growth Rates are calculated based on the Gordon Growth Model: G= R - D/V G= Implied Growth Rate R= Required Growth Rate (Risk free rate + Equity Risk Premium) D= Index Dividend V= Index Value Note: Equity risk premium of 4%. Risk free rates are 10-year benchmark or nearest equivalent.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, DataStream, MSCI, IBES Note: GBI-EM Bond Maturity and Yield to Maturity are used for each country.
14
Economic Forecasts: Changes in Real GDP Forecasts

US Euro Japan China Brazil S Korea Taiwan South Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Chile Indonesia Turkey Thailand Poland Czech Republic Peru Egypt Colombia Philippines Hungary Morocco Real GDP Growth (% Y/Y) J.P. Morgan Consensus 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.6 -0.5 1.7 1.0 -0.6 1.9 -0.4 2.5 8.9 8.5 9.3 8.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 3.0 5.1 5.0 3.1 2.5 3.3 3.7 7.6 8.5 7.5 8.0 3.4 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 2.5 4.0 3.9 4.0 1.5 5.0 5.4 6.5 4.0 6.3 4.5 6.3 5.2 6.5 6.6 6.3 2.7 5.9 3.7 3.0 1.5 4.1 4.7 3.8 2.7 4.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 2.3 2.6 6.3 4.5 6.4 5.3 na na na na 5.3 3.7 5.0 5.0 4.1 4.0 5.0 5.7 1.4 0.5 1.5 1.2 na na na na Change in Forecasts Past 3 months (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E -0.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.4 -2.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 -1.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.3 -1.0 -1.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.2 0.1 0.5 -2.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 -2.5 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.8 0.1 0.1 0.7 -2.9 0.6 -0.8 -0.1 -2.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -1.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 -0.3 -0.8 na na na na 0.4 -1.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -2.1 -1.0 -1.9 na na na na 2Q 11 1.3 0.6 -2.1 7.0 3.1 3.6 0.9 1.3 7.6 0.4 4.5 3.2 5.7 5.4 -3.1 -0.8 4.5 0.3 4.5 na 8.5 2.4 -0.2 na Economic Momentum GDP SAAR 3Q 11E 4Q 11E 2.5 1.0 0.5 -0.5 5.5 2.0 7.5 8.5 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.2 1.0 2.0 1.0 3.9 7.5 7.1 2.0 1.0 5.7 2.6 1.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 6.2 5.5 -2.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.0 na na 3.5 1.5 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 na na 1Q 12E 0.5 -1.0 1.8 8.7 3.3 4.0 3.5 2.3 8.6 4.0 -1.7 1.5 3.5 5.0 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.3 4.5 na 3.0 2.4 0.0 na
20 October 2011
Inflation (% Y/Y) 2011E 2012E 3.1 1.4 2.7 1.6 -0.2 -0.6 5.4 4.2 6.6 5.4 4.1 3.1 1.6 1.7 5.1 6.4 8.9 7.8 8.6 6.7 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 5.5 5.2 6.1 7.1 3.7 3.6 4.1 2.8 1.8 2.7 3.2 3.3 na na 3.4 3.0 4.7 3.5 3.9 4.6 na na
2011E GDP Growth in EM: J.P. Morgan and Consensus Forecasts

6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 6.2
Consensus Forecasts for 2011E GDP growth in EM and DM

DMconsensus growthforecast(RHS)
2.45 2.25 2.05
5.8 5.6
J.P.MorganEMgrowthforecast
6.0
1.85
ConsensusEMgrowth
5.5 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 5.4 Jan-10
EMconsensus growthforecast(LHS)
Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11
1.65 1.45 1.25
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Note: Consensus estimates for Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and Israel sourced from WES and Morocco from EIU
15
20 October 2011
Economic Forecasts: Policy Rate Trend and Forecasts

Country Official interest rate Developed Markets United States Federal funds rate Euro Area Refi Rate Japan Overnight Call Rate Latin America Brazil SELIC overnight rate Mexico Repo rate Chile Discount rate Europe, Middle East and Africa Czech Republic 2-week repo rate Hungary 2-week deposit rate Poland 7-day intervention rate Russia 1-week deposit rate South Africa Repo rate Turkey 1 week repo rate EM Asia China 1-year working capital Korea Overnight call rate Indonesia BI rate India Repo rate Malaysia Overnight policy rate Philippines Reverse repo rate pp p Thailand 1-day repo rate Taiwan Official discount rate 4Q"10 0.125 1.00 0.05 10.75 4.50 3.25 0.75 5.75 3.50 3.00 5.50 6.50 5.81 2.50 6.50 6.25 2.75 4.00 2.00 1.63 Change in policy rates
Russia India China Chile Japan Malaysia Thailand Poland Taiwan Korea Hungary Czech EU Philippines S Africa Indonesia Mexico USA Brazil Turkey
-1100
1Q"11 0.125 1.00 0.05 11.75 4.50 4.00 0.75 6.00 3.75 3.00 5.50 6.25 6.06 3.00 6.75 6.75 2.75 4.25 2.50 1.63
2Q"11 0.125 1.00 0.05 12.25 4.50 5.25 0.75 6.00 4.50 3.50 5.50 6.25 6.31 3.25 6.75 7.50 3.00 4.50 3.00 1.88
3Q'11 0.125 1.00 0.05 12.00 4.50 5.25 0.75 6.00 4.50 3.75 5.50 5.75 6.56 3.25 6.75 8.25 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
Current 0.125 1.50 0.05 12.00 4.50 5.25 0.75 6.00 4.50 3.75 5.50 5.75 6.56 3.25 6.50 8.25 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
4Q'11F 0.125 1.00 0.05 11.00 4.25 4.75 0.75 6.00 4.25 3.75 5.50 5.75 6.56 3.25 6.25 8.50 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
1Q'12F 0.125 1.00 0.05 10.50 4.00 4.00 0.75 6.00 4.00 3.75 5.50 5.75 6.56 3.25 6.00 8.50 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
2Q'12F 0.125 1.00 0.05 10.50 4.00 3.50 0.75 6.00 3.75 3.75 5.00 5.75 6.56 3.25 6.00 8.50 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
3Q'12F 0.125 1.00 0.05 10.50 4.00 3.50 0.75 5.75 3.75 4.00 5.00 5.75 6.56 3.50 6.00 8.50 3.00 4.50 3.50 1.88
Policy Rate Last Change Next Change 16 Dec 08 (-87.5bp) 7 Jul 11 (+25bp) 5 Oct 10 (-5bp) 31 Aug 11 (-50bp) 17 Jul 09 (-25bp) 14 Jun 11 (+25bp) 6 May 10 (-25bp) 24 Jan 11 (+25bp) 8 Jun 11 (+25bp) 14 Sep 11 (+25bp) 18 Nov 10 (-50bp) 4 Aug 11 (-50bp) 6 Jul 11 (+25bp) 10 Jun 11 (+25bp) 11 Oct 11 (-25bp) 16 Sep 11 (+25bp) 5 May 11 (+25bp) 5 May 11 ( y (+25bp) p) 24 Aug 11 (+25bp) 30 Jun 11 (+12.5bp) On hold 3 Nov 11 (-25bp) On hold 19 Oct 11 (-50bp) 2 Dec 11 (-25bp) 15 Nov 11 (-25bp) On hold 3Q 12 (-25bp) 1Q 12 (-25bp) 3Q 12 (+25bp) 2Q 12 (-50bp) Oct 12 (+25bp) 4Q 12 (+25bp) 3Q 12 (+25bp) 8 Dec 11 (-25bp) 25 Oct 11 (+25bp) On hold On hold On hold On hold
Emerging Markets Policy rates

28 24 20
Change from 05 - 07 avg
Forecast change from now to Q4 11
16 12 8 4 -1
Nominal Policy Rates Real Rates
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
-5
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: J.P. Morgan Economics, Bloomberg. Bold figures on next column indicate tightening.
16
Economic Forecasts: Currency Movements and Forecasts

Euro (EUR) 1.72 J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 1.38 end Mar 12: 1.38 end Jun 12: 1.40 J.P. Morgan Japansese Yen (JPY) 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 J.P. Morgan forecast: 80 end Dec11: 75 75 end Mar 12: 74 70 end Jun 12: 73 65 60 Jan 05 Dec 06 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 Consensus 1,200 1,100 J.P. Morgan Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12 1,000 900 Jan 05 Dec 06 Nov 08 J.P. Morgan Oct 10 Sep 12 South Korean Won (KRW) J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 1070 end Mar 12: 1050 end Jun 12: 1020 Consensus 1.52 37 J.P. Morgan forecast: 36 end Dec 11: 28.0 35 end Mar 12: 28.0 34 end Jun 12 : 27.75 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 Jan 05 Dec 06
20 October 2011
Taiwan Dollar (TWD)
Consensus
1.32
Consensus
J.P. Morgan Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12
1.12 Jan 05
Dec 06
Nov 08
Oct 10
Sep 12
Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.2 J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 6.30 end Mar 12: 6.20 end Jun 12: 6.10 Dec 06 Nov 08 Consensus 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 Sep 12 1.5 Jan 05
Brazilian Real (BRL) J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 1.80 end Mar 12: 1.80 end Jun 12: 1.80 43 39 35 31 Consensus J.P. Morgan Dec 06 Nov 08 Indian Rupee (INR) 54.5 52.5 J.P. Morgan 50.5 48.5 46.5 44.5 42.5 40.5 Sep 12 38.5 Jan 05 Dec 06 Nov 08 J.P. Morgan Oct 10 Sep 12 J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 45.5 end Mar 12: 44.5 end Jun 12: 44.0 4.0 3.8 Consensus 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 Oct 10 Sep 12 27 23 Jan 05
Russian Ruble (RUB) 14.0 J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 31.6 end Mar 12: 27.97 end Jun 12: 27.75 13.0 12.0 11.0 Consensus 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 J.P. Morgan Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12 6.0 5.0 50 Jan 05
South African Rand (ZAR) J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 7.0 end Mar 12: 7.15 end Jun 12: 7.30 J.P. Morgan
J.P. Morgan Oct 10
Consensus Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12
5.8 Jan 05
Mexican Peso (MXN) 15.7 J.P.Morgan forecast: 15.1 end Dec 11: 12.40 14.5 end Mar 12: 12.25 13.9 end Jun 12: 12.50 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.5 10.9 10.3 9.7 Jan 05 Dec 06
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 Jan 05
Thai Baht (THB)
J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 29.0 end Mar 12: 28.75 end Jun 12: 28.50 Consensus
Consensus
Nov 08
Oct 10
2.6 Jan 05
J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 2.93 end Mar 12: 2.91 end Jun 12: 2.88 Dec 06 Nov 08
Consensus
J.P. Morgan Oct 10 Sep 12
J.P. Morgan Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12
Polish Zloty (PLN) 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 J.P.Morgan forecast: 2.5 end Dec 11: 2.83 2.3 end Mar 12: 2.79 2.1 end Jun 12: 2.75 1.9 Jan 05 Dec 06 2.0 1.9 Consensus 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 J.P. Morgan 1.4 1.3 1.2 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12 1.1 Jan 05
Turkish Lira (TRY) J.P.Morgan forecast: end Dec11: 1.65 end Mar 12: 1.72 end Jun 12: 1.65
Consensus
J.P. Morgan
Dec 06
Nov 08
Oct 10
Sep 12
Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. 17
Economic Forecasts: Currency Movements and Forecasts

Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) 12,500 11,500 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 Jan 05 Consensus J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 8400 end Mar 12: 8350 end Jun 12: 8300 Hungarian Forint (HUF) 270 J.P. Morgan forecast: 257 end Dec 11: 192 244 end Mar 12: 192 Consensus 231 end Jun 12: 189 218 205 192 179 J.P. Morgan 166 153 140 Jan 05 Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12 Colombian Peso(COP) 2,800 2,600 2,400 Consensus 2,200 2,000 J.P. Morgan Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12 1,800 1,600 Jan 05 Dec 06 Nov 08 Consensus Oct 10 Sep 12 J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 1800 end Mar 12: 1775 end Jun 12: 1775 J.P. Morgan Czech Koruna (CZK) 26 24 22 20 18 16 J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 17.39 end Mar 12: 17.39 end Jun 12: 16.96 Dec 06 Nov 08 Consensus 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 J.P. Morgan Oct 10 Sep 12 2.8 J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 2.73 end Mar 12: 2.72 end Jun 12: 2.71 Dec 06 Nov 08
20 October 2011
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN)
J.P. Morgan
J.P. Morgan Dec 06 Nov 08 Oct 10 Sep 12
Consensus Oct 10 Sep 12
14 Jan 05
2.5 Jan 05
Philippine Peso (PHP) 60 56 52 48 44 40 36 Jan 05 J.P. Morgan forecast: end Dec 11: 41.0 end Mar 12: 40.75 end Jun 12: 40.25
Expected % Gain vs USD till December 2011 (J.P. Morgan)

12 10 8 6 4 2 KRW MXN MYR TWD COP CNY ZAR THB CZK TRL INR ILS IDR PLN HUF PHP JPY 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 EUR
Expected % Loss vs USD till December 2011 (J.P. Morgan)
RUB
Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.
18
ARS
BRL
-12
Economic Forecasts: Credit Risk

Foreign Reserves (US$bil) 3197 336 304 400 44 277 484 129 134 35 120 109 93 177 43 47 17 31 69 54 14 4689 896 630 External (2011E) Current Account 2011F** 2012F** %GDP %GDP 3.5 3.3 -2.6 -3.3 1.8 1.3 7.8 6.6 -3.6 -4.5 -2.8 -2.2 5.0 50 2.2 22 -0.7 -1.1 8.9 7.0 -0.8 -3.2 0.9 0.4 -4.8 -4.5 -7.9 -6.5 3.5 0.8 -4.1 -4.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.6 26 -2.1 21 -3.1 -3.4 5.2 4.8 1.6 2.0 -5.0 -4.4 4.4 3.0 0.5 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 External Debt 2011F** 2011F** (US$bil) %GDP 533 8 399 16 380 32 92 19 79 20 324 17 517 27 218 18 65 26 91 37 199 24 304 56 312 39 93 25 90 42 41 24 na na 60 18 79 36 173 112 na na 1482 18 1455 53 757 20 Fiscal Position Fiscal Deficit Public Sector Debt 2011F** 2012F** 2010 2011 % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP -1.9 -1.8 19.6 19.0 -2.6 -2.1 49.5 47.8 0.5 1.0 28.9 26.5 -1.8 -2.0 na na -5.5 -5.2 33.6 36.3 -5.3 -4.6 44.6 43.5 0.3 03 -1.8 -1 8 10.8 10 8 9.0 90 -2.5 -2.3 23.3 24.1 -5.2 -4.5 51.4 52.6 1.5 0.5 9.0 6.7 -1.6 -1.8 24.4 23.1 -5.6 -4.0 55.6 57.8 -1.5 -1.5 45.7 41.0 -3.0 -3.5 33.7 34.1 -4.0 -3.5 42.1 44.0 -0.3 0.0 23.4 21.6 na na na na -4.1 -3.7 41.3 42.3 -1.5 -2.5 45.9 43.7 2.0 -3.2 73.7 68.5 na na na na -2.0 -1.8 27.9 27.0 -2.0 -2.1 30.9 29.8 -2.3 -2.1 34.2 33.1 Sovereign Ratings (Long Term Foreign Debt) Rating Aa3 (+) Baa2 (+) A1 Aa3 A3 Baa3 Baa1 Baa1 A3 Aa3 Ba1 A2 Ba2 (+) Baa1 A1 Baa3 (+) Ba3 ( ) (-) Baa3 Ba2 Baa3 (-) Ba1 Moody's Action Upgrade, O/L chngd (+) Upgrade, O/L (+) Upgrade, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L stable Upgrade, O/L chngd to stable Affirmed, O/L stable O/L chngd to stable Affirmed stable, Affirmed, O/L stable Upgrade, O/L stable Upgrade, O/L chngd stable Affirmed, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L stable O/L chngd to (+), Affirmed O/L chngd to stable, Affirmed Affirmed, O/L stable O/L chngd to (+), Affirmed Downgrade, Downgrade O/L chngd to (-) () Upgrade, O/L stable Upgrade, O/L stable Downgrade, O/L chngd to (-) O/L chngd to stable Date Nov-11-10 Jun-20-11 Apr-14-10 Jan-24-02 Jul-16-09 Jul-26-10 Dec-12-08 Aug-05-09 Dec-16-04 Jun-16-10 Feb-10-11 Jan-05-10 Oct-05-10 Oct-28-10 Aug-04-11 Mar-21-11 Mar-16-11 Mar 16 11 May-31-11 Jun-15-11 Dec-06-10 Jun-18-03 Rating AABBBA AABBB+ BBBBBB BBB AA+ (+) BB+ ABB (+) BBB+ A (+) BBB BB BBBBB BBB- (-) BBBS&P Action Upgrade, O/L stable O/L chngd to (+), Affirmed Affirmed, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L stable O/L chngd to stable, Affirmed O/L chngd to stable, Affirmed O/L chngd to stable Affirmed stable, Upgrade, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L stable O/L chngd to (+), Affirmed Upgrade, O/L (+) Affirmed, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L (+) O/L chngd to stable, Affirmed O/L chngd to (+), Affirmed Upgrade, O/L chngd to stable Affirmed, Affirmed O/L ( ) (-) Upgrade, O/L stable Upgrade, O/L stable Affirmed, O/L (-) Upgrade, O/L stable Date Dec-16-10 May-23-01 Jan-12-10 Aug-02-11 Jan-25-11 Mar-18-10 Dec-21-09 Dec-17-10 Jul-27-11 Dec-16-10 Apr-08-11 Aug-03-11 Apr-15-11 Dec-09-10 Aug-10-10 Aug-30-11 Mar-10-11 Mar 10 11 Mar-16-11 Nov-12-10 Mar-24-11 Mar-23-10 -
China Brazil Korea Taiwan South Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Chile Indonesia Poland Turkey Thailand Czech Republic Peru Egypt* Colombia Philippines Hungary Morocco* Emerging Asia Emerging Europe Latin America
EMBI Global Spreads and Yields

550 9.0 500 450 8.0 400 350 300 7.0 250 200 150 6.0 100 50 0 5.0 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11
Spread (L) Yield
EMBI Asia Spreads and Yields

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10
Spread (L)
EMBI Europe Spreads and Yields

7 6 6 5 5 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11
Yield
EMBI Latin America Spreads and Yields

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 40 Oct-11 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Oct-09 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 Oct-11
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Yield
4 Oct-11
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Yield
Spread (L)
Spread (L)
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan estimates, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg * Data from World Economic Outlook for April 2010 for Current Account data, ** F denotes forecast. Note: Forex reserves as of July 2011 or latest available data. 19
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Perspective: Emerging Markets Balance Sheets

China Brazil Korea Taiwan South Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Chile Indonesia Turkey Thailand Poland Czech Republic Peru Egypt Colombia Philippines Hungary Morocco No. of Companies 126 70 82 103 35 54 26 21 31 14 19 11 15 14 2 2 7 5 10 3 2 Debt/Equity 0.57 0.59 0.28 0.26 0.38 0.68 0.31 0.59 0.66 0.60 0.49 0.62 0.76 0.34 0.55 0.18 0.88 0.30 0.71 0.47 0.44 Debt/Assets 0.26 0.28 0.16 0.16 0.19 0.30 0.21 0.28 0.32 0.30 0.26 0.25 0.35 0.19 0.25 0.14 0.31 0.19 0.32 0.24 0.16 Debt/Mkt. Cap 0.59 0.48 0.18 0.10 0.13 0.21 0.31 0.28 0.29 0.13 0.09 0.29 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.03 0.59 0.14 0.23 0.33 0.07 Asset Turnover 0.69 0.46 1.06 0.96 0.87 0.67 0.39 0.67 0.47 0.61 0.89 0.88 1.11 0.79 0.41 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.46 0.70 0.46 Current Ratio 1.06 1.58 1.23 1.37 1.19 1.56 2.09 1.39 1.90 1.16 1.39 1.08 1.47 1.45 0.90 3.42 1.05 1.11 1.41 1.30 1.18 Interest Coverage 10.1 3.9 11.8 11.9 4.2 5.7 4.6 6.0 5.0 6.2 11.7 5.5 7.1 6.6 21.9 18.6 2.9 2.9 5.6 4.4 11.4
20 October 2011
Altman Z Score 4.6 4.6 4.2 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.9 3.3 10.3 3.9 5.4 3.5 2.8 7.4 2.3 3.4 3.1 5.7 3.6
Debt to Equity Ratios Quartile Distribution Chart (x)

8
Czech Republic
Philippines
Hungary
Indonesia
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
South Africa
Updated as of March-11
Note: 1. All ratios are calculated from latest financial reports available ex Banks, Insurance and Diversified financials sector and calculations are based on weighted average of companies in the MSCI EMF universe. For Altman z-score, its application on company level is such that a score of less than 1.8 indicates bankruptcy likely, between 1.8-2.7 bankruptcy likely within 2 years and more than 3 most likely safe from bankruptcy. For market as a whole, the ratio is a weighted average of companies' z-score, thereby giving a general quality of companies in the market. 2. For the debt to equity distribution chart, each box indicates quartile levels and markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond indicates weighted average for each market. 3. Quartile Distribution Charts: each quartile is separated by a line, with the exception of the top quartile which is subdivided in order to show the top decile of companies, shaded in blue. Markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond indicates the weighted mean for each market.
20
Colombia
Thailand
Turkey
Korea
Taiwan
Poland
China
Mexico
Russia
Egypt
Brazil
Chile
India
Peru
Malaysia
Morocco
Perspective: Demographic and Key Economic Statistics

Population and Demographics Population Age 2011 Growth Dependency Ratio* million %YoY Young Old USA China Brazil India Russia Mexico Korea Indonesia Turkey Poland Taiwan South Africa Argentina Thailand Colombia Malaysia Egypt Czech Rep. Philippines Chile Israel Peru Hungary Morocco MSCI EM 313 1362 195 1229 140 110 48 236 72 38 23 51 41 69 46 29 80 10 95 17 8 30 10 32 3,977 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.3 -0.3 1.0 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.8 1.2 2.2 1.5 -0.1 0.9 na 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 na 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Gross Enrollment Ratio Secondary** 98 73 102 54 93 80 91 64 79 97 na 90 86 77 75 76 87 96 86 89 93 92 97 48 US$ billion 15,062 7087 2530 1908 1872 1203 1178 852 798 549 506 426 424 368 328 276 248 230 219 214 209 174 155 100 22,071 2011 Nominal GDP Per capita (US$) 48,082 5204 12977 1552 13385 10963 24337 3617 11031 14412 21743 8426 10371 5363 7123 9672 3109 22021 2295 12277 27579 5811 15477 3101 5,502 10 year CAGR*** Total Per capita (%) (%) 3.9 18.3 16.4 14.8 19.9 5.8 8.8 18.2 15.1 11.2 5.6 13.6 4.7 12.4 13.5 12.1 10.0 14.0 11.9 12.0 5.6 12.4 11.3 10.2 14.9 3.1 17.3 13.4 13.5 19.8 4.5 7.7 16.2 15.0 11.8 5.3 11.5 3.9 11.8 11.4 9.9 7.7 14.1 10.3 10.3 3.5 10.2 11.4 9.0 14.3
October 20, 2011
Real GDP 10 year CAGR*** Total Per capita (%) (%) 1.8 10.5 3.9 8.0 4.7 2.1 4.1 5.4 4.7 4.1 4.5 3.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.9 5.1 3.1 4.9 4.0 3.5 6.2 1.8 4.7 0.8 9.8 2.7 6.4 5.2 1.2 3.8 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.1 2.4 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 1.4 4.5 2.0 3.5
Source: CEIC, Datastream, Bloomberg, US Census Bureau, World Bank, IMF, UNESCO, J.P. Morgan estimates * Age dependency ratio defined as dependents to working-age population. ** Gross Enrollment Ratio is defined as pupils enrolled in a secondary level, regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the relevant official age group *** 10-year CAGR for period 2001-2011, in local currency. Data for Gross enrollment is for 2004 except for Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina which is for 2003
Updated as of August 2011
21
Perspective: Global Emerging Capital Markets

MSCI EMF Index Total Market Cap US$ Bn 1117 779 845 524 358 724 587 280 275 229 171 146 104 143 132 68 41 36 24 18 27 6628 Estimated Free Float (%) 49 63 58 69 69 33 36 55 41 42 35 37 50 31 23 32 46 33 46 58 21 49 Companies Number 148 104 83 122 49 72 27 23 42 25 21 18 22 22 9 15 3 3 9 4 3 824 Average Daily Turnover US $ Mn 4204 4972 3185 2829 1125 1452 2486 405 359 334 512 131 292 773 40 44 175 63 18 77 6 23483 % of Emerging Market Trading Volume % 17.9 21.2 13.6 12.0 4.8 6.2 10.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.2 0.6 1.2 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 100 Markets Concentration Weighting in MSCI EMF (%) 16.6 15.1 14.9 11.1 7.6 7.4 6.5 4.7 3.4 3.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 100 Stocks constituting 75% of Stocks constituting 75% of Country Market Cap Country Market Cap Number 31 29 18 33 17 22 7 8 16 10 10 8 7 9 4 9 2 2 4 2 2 (%) 21 28 22 27 35 31 27 35 38 40 45 44 32 41 44 60 67 67 44 50 67 Market Capitalisation US$ Bn 7.3 na 40.2 na 10.2 na 43.8 57.0 7.1 27.4 na 8.1 9.5 37.0 15 30.6 10.4 na 2.1 7.4 na 313
20 October 2011
J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Issues Number 8 na 20 na 7 na 16 26 5 19 na 11 5 17 9 19 6 na 3 4 na 175
China Korea Brazil Taiwan South Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Chile Poland Turkey Colombia Philippines Peru Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Morocco Total
AC World Index Market Capitalisation

Emerging Markets 13% Japan 8% Developed Asia 5% Developed Europe 25% North America 49%
MSCI Regional Market Capitalisation

EM Latin America 23%
Top 8 versus Rest of Emerging Markets

India 7% Mexico 5% China 17% Brazil South Africa 8% 15% Russia 6%
Rest of EM 16% Korea 15% Taiwan 11%
EM Asia 59%
EM Europe and Middle East 18%
Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan.
22
Perspective: MSCI Emerging Market Index Composition by Countries and Sectors

Number of Companies: 824 Consumer Discretionary Total Market Capitalization (in billion US$): 6628 Consumer Staples Health care Industrials Financials Estimated Free float : 50% Telecom Services Information Technology Materials
20 October 2011
Energy
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index
Utilities
China Korea Taiwan India Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines Asia South Africa Russia Poland Turkey Hungary Egypt Czech Republic Morocco EMEA Brazil Mexico Chile Peru Colombia LatAm Total
Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan.
0.9 2.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2
3.2 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 5.7 0.7 3.8 0.2 0.1 0.1
1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 8.3
0.8 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 3.3 7.6
4.9 3.0
0.3 3.3 13.9
5.5 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 14.4 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 3.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 4.9 23.9
0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.2
1.1 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 5.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 6.6
23
1.0 4.2 6.0 1.2
0.9 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
12.4 0.0
0.1
0.3 0.1
0.0 0.4
0.1 1.1
0.4 12.9
3.2 3.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.8 13.9
2.5 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 4.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 0.6 1.6 0.1 2.2 8.5
0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.2
0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.4 3.5
16.6 15.1 11.1 7.4 3.4 3.0 1.8 0.7 59.0 7.6 6.5 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 18.2 14.9 4.7 1.7 0.6 0.9 22.8 100.0
Total
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures MSCI: The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an 'as is' basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates. Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] In our Asia (ex-Australia) and UK small- and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans research website, www.morganmarkets.com J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2011 Overweight Neutral (buy) (hold) J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 47% 42% IB clients* 51% 44% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 45% 47% IB clients* 70% 60% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative. Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Underweight (sell) 11% 33% 7% 52%
24
Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan ("JPM") is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS") and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a marketing name for the U.K. investment banking businesses and EMEA cash equities and equity research businesses of JPM & Co. and its subsidiaries. Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA,SIPC and the NFA. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. is a member of the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Secu (JPMSL) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limit member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Ko J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Burea Morgan India Private Limited, having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz East, Mumbai - 400098, is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (SEBI Registration Number - INB 230675231/INF 230675231/I 230675231) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number -INB 010675237/INF 010675237) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Th regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines In member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Sec Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MICA (P) 025/01/2011 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital M Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P. Morgan Saud is authorized by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisa King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 51907, Riyadh 11553, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - Buildin PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMSL. Investment research issued by JPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSL's policies for managing conflict arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to wh document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material i distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to wholesale clients only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to retail clients. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL purposes of this paragraph the terms wholesale client and retail client have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd., Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Mor Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct f Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider/market maker for derivative warrants, callable bull bear contracts and stock options listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur du in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhiz by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association. Korea: This report may have been edited or contribute time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclose Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is t of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this m not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to se described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus w relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorp formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passe upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except w any disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analysts involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgme date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do no account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any secu financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMS distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announceme conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Other Disclosures last revised September 30, 2011.
Copyright 2011 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
25
J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Strategy Team

Adrian Mowat Ben Laidler David Aserkoff
Chief Equity Strategists
Sriyan Pietersz Christian Kern Developed Markets Thomas J Lee Mislav Matejka Hajime Kitano Frank Li Bharat Iyer Aditya Srinath Nick Lai Scott Seo Emy Shayo Ben Laidler Alex Kantarovich Deanne Gordon Sriyan Pietersz Gilbert Lopez HoyKit Mak
Frontier Markets
Asia and Emerging Market Latin America CEEMEA ASEAN and Frontier Markets MENA US Europe Japan China India Indonesia Taiwan Korea Brazil Mexico Russia South Africa Thailand Philippines Malaysia Global Head, Emerging Markets Research Global Commodities Research and Strategy Emerging Asia Korea India China, Taiwan and Hong Kong Argentina Brazil Mexico Regional Head, Emerging Europe Turkey South Africa Russia Hungary, Poland & Czech Republic Emerging Asia EMEA Latin America Global
(852) 2800 8599 (212) 622 5252 (44-20) 7325-1775 (66-2) 684 2670 (971) 4428 1789 (1) 212 622 6505 (44-20) 7325 5242 (81-3) 5545 8655 (852) 2800 8511 (91-22) 6157 3600 (62-21) 5291 8573 (886-2) 27259864 (82-2) 758 5759 (55-11) 3048 6684 (212) 622 5252 (7-495) 967 3172 (27-21) 712 0875 (66-2) 684 2670 (63-2) 8781 188 (603)-2270 4728 (1-212) 834 4203 (1-212) 834-5648 (65) 6882 2461 (82-2) 758 5509 (9122) 6157 3385 (852) 2800 7002 (1-212) 834 4144 (55-11) 3048 3634 (52-55)-5540-9558 (44-20) 7777 4627 (90-212) 326 5890 (27-11) 507 0376 (7-495) 937-7321 (44-20) 7777 3981 (852) 2800 8325 (44-20) 7777-4356 (1-212) 834-4043 (1-212) 834-4211
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com ben.m.laidler@jpmchase.com david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com sriyan.pietersz@jpmorgan.com christian.a.kern@jpmorgan.com thomas.lee@jpmorgan.com mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com hajime.x.kitano@jpmorgan.com frank.m.li@jpmorgan.com bharat.x.iyer@jpmorgan.com aditya.s.srinath@jpmchase.com nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com scott.seo@jpmorgan.com emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com ben.m.laidler@jpmchase.com ben m laidler@jpmchase com alex.kantarovich@jpmorgan.com deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com sriyan.pietersz@jpmorgan.com lopez.y.gilbert@jpmorgan.com hoykit.mak@jpmorgan.com joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com colin.p.fenton@jpmorgan.com david.g.fernandez@jpmorgan.com jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com vladimir.werning@jpmorgan.com fabio.akira@jpmorgan.com gabriel.casillas@jpmchase.com michael.marrese@jpmorgan.com yarkin.cebeci@jpmorgan.com sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com bert.j.gochet@jpmorgan.com michael.j.trounce@jpmorgan.com felipe.q.pianetti@jpmorgan.com eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com
Country Strategists
Joyce Chang Colin P Fenton David Fernandez Jiwon Lim Jahangir Aziz Grace Ng Vladimir Werning Fabio Akira Gabriel Casillas Michael Marrese Yarkin Cebeci Sonja Keller Anatoliy A Shal Nora Szentivanyi Bert Gochet Michael Trounce Felipe Pianetti Eric Beinstein
Economic & Policy Research
Rates Research
The authors acknowledge the contribution of Prateek Parekh and Arjun Bhatia of J.P. Morgan India Private Limited to this report.

Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emerging Markets Equity Research

20 October 20, 2011

Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards

Global Emerging Markets Research

Page # 2 3 4 5 6 7 8,9,10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17,18 19 20 21 22 23

Summary: Regional and Countries Valuations

Updated as of 19 Oct 2011

Market Performance: MSCI AC Performance by Regions, Countries and Sectors

0.3% -2.7% -13.5% -7.9% 1.4% -5.2% 1.3%

EMF Latin America

0.9% 9.2% -20.0% 10.8% -26.2% -9.3% -7.2% -8.4%

-15.8% -17.1% -16.0% -22.9% -14.9% 18.3% -9.2% -14.6% -8.5%

-1.4% -3.1% -4.9%

-15.5% -30.8% -6.0%

-35.1% -29.1% 3.0%

-7.2% -17.0% -5.8% 0.3%

-27.4% -10.7% -26.1%

-9.9% -0.3% 0.0% -16.5% -19.4%

-18.2% -30.5% -16.1%

0.0% -49.4% 0.0% -22.2% -27.2% -38.0% -2.9%

0.0% 0.0% -18.6%

-20.4% -37.4% 0.0% -17.9% -1.5%

-10.5% -7.4% 0.0% -12.9% -17.4%

-1.7% -21.5% -3.5%

1.0% -6.9% -8.8% 3.2%

0.0% -5.2% -11.7% 2.2%

Equity Markets Liquidity Monitor

Daily Velocity Ratio (%) 1 Wk Avg 3M Avg 10 Avg

BRIC Trading value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

Korea, Taiwan, HK & Singapore Trading Value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

Russia South Africa Turkey Poland Egypt

Emerging ASEAN Trading Value (US$ bn, 3MMA)

Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru Argentina

Updated as of 19 October 2011

Monitoring Inflation: The real threat to EM equities

Europe, Middle East and Africa

Updated as of 19 Oct 2011

Outlook: Market Drivers

Global and developed market drivers

Country China Brazil Korea Taiwan

Emerging Market Drivers

Profit Outlook: Earnings Forecasts Matrix for Countries and Sectors

J.P. Morgan 2012 14.3 17.5 NA NA 22.6 NA 11.2 NA NA 2.1 12.6

Median 11.6 6.0 NA NA 13.8 NA 13.4 NA NA 1.7 57.1

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

Median 12.6 19.8 2.9 NA 8.6 NA -20.2 NA 43.9 3.9 NA

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

Median 45.6 NA 9.7 30.2 55.2 NA NA NA 80.1 97.3 NM

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

J.P. Morgan 2012 -

Median -2.7 14.2 7.4 32.8 -8.3 NA 20.9 NA -14.6 -19.6 NA

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2011 and 2012)

EM Latin America 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Feb-10

145 135 125 115 105 95 85 Feb-10 Aug-10

South Africa 2012 2 125

130 120 110 2012

Updated as of 19 Oct 2011

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2011 and 2012)

Indonesia 135 125 115 2011 105 95 Feb-10 2012

Philippines 135 125 115 2011