1

2
3
4

Plot Sales against Month

Does it exhibit trend? Is it increasing or decreasing?
Does it exhibit seasonlaity? What is the period?
Plot ACF. For ACF, at what lag the value is large?

Using Nave Model, 12 monthly moving average and Holt Winter Multiplicative model, predict sales for Januar
and MAPE.
(For calculating MAPE, RMS, consider data for last year, namely year 2003, only)
5 (See the table below)
Prediction
Model
RMS
MAPE
Jan 2004
Nave
15.01
0.34
52
Moving Average (12)
0.50
32.08
3.8737
Hot Winter
Multiplicative (alpha =
0.2, Beta = 0.15,
Gamma = 0.05)
16.88
0.64
32.97

del, predict sales for January 2004 with RMS

Sr. No
1
2
3
4
5

Roll No

Name

Group

2011C01
2011C12
2011C14
2011C04
2011C39

Aniruddha Dutt
Seshan Vishwanath
Lokesh Natoo
Prashasti Singh
Debi Prasad Dash

Group 4
Group 4
Group 4
Group 4
Group 4

Year
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Month
Sales
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

5
8
10
18
26
35
28
20
14
8
6
26
21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52

XLMiner : Time Series - ACF (Autocorrelations)

Inputs
Data
# Records in input data
Selected variable

24
Sales

Parameters/Options
Max Lag

23

ACF Values
ACF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

1
0.53362
0.22061545
0.02281382
-0.18744443
-0.1428768
0.0508611
-0.01830282
-0.05795538
-0.00165009
-0.01393986
0.05564136
0.18167871
-0.01933321
-0.17126267
-0.26601702
-0.31765804
-0.24013467
-0.04725787
0.02208091
0.03213783
0.01008339
-0.03803801
-0.10766173

ACF Plot for Sales

1

0.5
ACF

Lags

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-0.5

-1

Lags
ACF

UCI

LCI

Date: 20-Jan-2012 14:42:51

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

(Ver: 3.2.8.S)

XLMiner : Time Series - Holt Winter Forecasting Method(Multiplicative Model)

Output Navigator
Inputs

Fitted Model

Forecast

Elapsed Time Error Measures(Training)

Error Measures(Validation)

Inputs
Data
# Records in input data
Input data
Selected variable

24
Sheet1!$A$2:$C$25
Sales

Parameters/Options
Alpha (Level)
Beta (Trend)
Gamma (Seasonality)
Season length
Number of seasons
Forecast
#Forecasts

0.2
0.15
0.05
2
12
Yes
1

Fitted Model
Actual
5
8
10
18
26
35
28
20
14
8
6
26
21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52

Error Measures (Training)

MAPE
MAD

69.2274651
11.7059493

Forecast
6.08852793
7.83557034
7.90858982
10.7799056
12.0802107
19.2268723
22.2154867
29.5960707
26.4552914
28.8869084
22.7392539
22.2353236
20.7955941
24.9436634
21.3883915
27.2172808
25.9403231
35.3708887
38.1268432
47.8399596
41.6808559
44.7914992
34.7990348
32.7570029

Residuals
-1.08852793
0.16442966
2.09141018
7.22009435
13.9197893
15.7731277
5.78451329
-9.59607074
-12.4552914
-20.8869084
-16.7392539
3.76467645
0.20440593
-4.9436634
7.61160854
4.78271921
18.0596769
22.6291113
7.87315684
-15.8399596
-14.6808559
-31.7914992
-23.7990348
19.2429971

Time Plot of Actual Vs Forecast (Training Data)

Sales

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Month
Actual

Forecast

MSE

205.454651

Forecast
Month
Forecast1

Forecast
LCI
33.02385 4.92981884

Elapsed Time
Overall (secs)

1.00

UCI
61.1178812

Date: 20-Jan-2012 14:46:56

s Forecast (Training Data)

Forecast

(Ver:
3.2.8.S)

Answer 1

Sales
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
April

March

February

January

December

November

October

September

August

July

June

May

April

March

February

January

2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003
Answer 2

Trend : The Above graph shows an Increasing Trend.

Answer 3

Seasonality: There is no specific seasonality seen, apart from the fact that there is a seson

Answer 4

The ACF is large at the lag value 1

Sales

December

November

October

September

August

July

June

May

April

Linear (Sales)

2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003

he fact that there is a sesonal increase from the month of March-July

Naive Model
Year
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

2004 January
ME
MAE
MAPE
Mean Square Error
RMS

Sales
21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52
52
2.166667
11
0.344755
225.1667
15.00555

Forecast Error
Abs Error Abs % Error Square Error
26
-5
5
23.81%
25
21
-1
1
5.00%
1
20
9
9
31.03%
81
29
3
3
9.38%
9
32
12
12
27.27%
144
44
14
14
24.14%
196
58
-12
12
26.09%
144
46
-14
14
43.75%
196
32
-5
5
18.52%
25
27
-14
14
107.69%
196
13
-2
2
18.18%
4
11
41
41
78.85%
1681

Holt-Winter Multiplicative Model

Year
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Month
Sales
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52

2004 January
ME
MAE
MAPE
Mean Square Error
RMS

Forecast
20.79559407
24.9436634
21.38839146
27.21728079
25.94032314
35.37088869
38.12684316
47.83995958
41.6808559
44.79149918
34.79903477
32.75700288
32.97094475
-0.887611419
14.28822405
63.82%
284.9438372
16.88027954

Error
0.204406
-4.94366
7.611609
4.782719
18.05968
22.62911
7.873157
-15.84
-14.6809
-31.7915
-23.799
19.243

Abs Error Abs % Error Error Square

0.204406
0.97% 0.04178178
4.943663
24.72% 24.4398078
7.611609
26.25% 57.9365845
4.782719
14.95%
22.874403
18.05968
41.04% 326.151928
22.62911
39.02% 512.076679
7.873157
17.12% 61.9865986
15.83996
49.50%
250.90432
14.68086
54.37%
215.52753
31.7915
244.55% 1010.69942
23.79903
216.35% 566.394056
19.243
37.01% 370.292938

Year
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Month
Sales
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

5
8
10
18
26
35
28
20
14
8
6
26
21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52

Moving Average 12months

Year
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Sales
21
20
29
32
44
58
46
32
27
13
11
52
2004 January
ME
MAE
MAPE
Mean Square Error
RMS

Forecast
17
18.33333
19.33333
20.91667
22.08333
23.58333
25.5
27
28
29.08333
29.5
29.91667
32.08333
7.895833
13.82639
0.502301
286.2297
16.91833

Error
4
1.666667
9.666667
11.08333
21.91667
34.41667
20.5
5
-1
-16.0833
-18.5
22.08333

Abs Error Abs % Error Error Square

4
19.05%
16
1.666667
8.33% 2.77777778
9.666667
33.33% 93.4444444
11.08333
34.64% 122.840278
21.91667
49.81% 480.340278
34.41667
59.34% 1184.50694
20.5
44.57%
420.25
5
15.63%
25
1
3.70%
1
16.08333
123.72% 258.673611
18.5
168.18%
342.25
22.08333
42.47% 487.673611